1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,319 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Stock sliding as investors 10 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 2: comed down to the start of earning season, Keith Lerner 11 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,840 Speaker 2: of truest Right in the following the current bullmarket likely 12 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 2: still has further upside, underscoring the importance of staying focused 13 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:49,880 Speaker 2: on the broader trajectory rather than short term turbulence. Keith 14 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 2: joins us now for more. Keith, Welcome to the program. 15 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 2: Are you expecting some short term turbulence this earning season? 16 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 3: Yeah? 17 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 4: Well, first, great to be with you. I think it 18 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 4: may be a little bit of a spookier October. 19 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 3: We didn't get the seasonal weakness. 20 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 4: A lot a lot of folks were looking for in 21 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 4: August and September, and as you just discussed, like we 22 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 4: have this big meeting, it's at the end of the month, 23 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 4: the Fed's meetings at the end of the month. 24 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 3: I think earnings continue to be the north star. 25 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:15,959 Speaker 4: But I will say heading into the earning season and 26 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 4: we've had just one of the strongest six month rallies 27 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 4: we've seen in history, expectations are somewhat high. You did 28 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 4: see some complacency put the call ratios were really low 29 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 4: going into this as well. And as I look at 30 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 4: the overall market, you're just see in some minor cracks. 31 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 4: So I just think this month is going to be 32 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 4: a bit more turbulence. We still think we're in a 33 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 4: bull market, a bull market that deserves the benefit of 34 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 4: the doubt, but I think this turbulence is likely to 35 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 4: continue through this month. 36 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:44,320 Speaker 2: Keith Imbory and Lisa, we're talking about the tension between 37 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 2: the US and China somehow failing somewhat different going into 38 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 2: negotiations at the end of this month, and I think 39 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 2: you can see that in the price section. Yesterday's bound 40 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 2: smaller than Friday sell off, and the sell off resumes 41 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 2: again this morning. Keith, is there something different about things 42 00:01:57,880 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 2: this time around. 43 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 4: Well, the biggest challenge from a market perspective is this 44 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 4: that you're going into this with higher expectations. 45 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 3: You're at a twenty two multiple. 46 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 4: As I mentioned, you've had this big run, so you 47 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 4: just have you're more vulnerable to bad news. Whether this 48 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 4: actually from a political side is different, you know, we 49 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 4: just don't know yet. I mean, that's just the reality. 50 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 3: We don't know. 51 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 4: I think what we've seen over the last you know, 52 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 4: six months, is that when we start to have more 53 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 4: tension in the markets, eventually, you know, coolerheads prevail. But 54 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 4: as as just mentioned, we just made new highs in 55 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 4: the market, So the question becomes, you know, how much 56 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 4: how much of a move down do we need before 57 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:39,799 Speaker 4: we start to see kind of a backup. And we're 58 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 4: only a few percent from all time high, so I 59 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 4: suspect that we actually still have some more work to 60 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 4: move on the downside before investors start to focus back 61 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 4: on what we think is the north store of this 62 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:52,079 Speaker 4: blow market, which is still earning. 63 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 5: So, Keith, this isn't a biable dip yet for you? 64 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 3: Is that correct? 65 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 4: This is not a place where I wouldn't say I 66 00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 4: would be aggressively buying here. 67 00:02:58,720 --> 00:02:58,800 Speaker 6: No. 68 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 4: I think you know, if we look back historically, we 69 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:05,359 Speaker 4: haven't had even a five percent pullback since April. 70 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 3: You know. 71 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 4: That's also we often talk about pullbacks or the admission 72 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 4: price to the to the to the market to eventually 73 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 4: higher prices. So you know, we're a few percent from 74 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 4: an all time highs with these kind of a little 75 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 4: bit of a craft. I like a little bit deeper 76 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 4: of a pullback. And I'm not saying, you know, fifteen percent. 77 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 4: I think something in the five to ten percent range 78 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 4: would be something where we would say, potentially be more aggressive. 79 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 5: I wonder what your read through is going to be 80 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 5: from the bank earnings that do kick off shortly. We 81 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 5: are expecting based on what Jeffreys reported a while ago, 82 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 5: this boom and m and A, this idea that there's 83 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 5: more corporate confidence we're seeing that surveys. Does that do 84 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 5: enough to alleviate concerns elsewhere and make you have conviction 85 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 5: to buy in a more broad based manner? 86 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I do think that's important. 87 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 4: I think, you know, we're all looking at whatever economic 88 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 4: data that we have, and there's certainly some divertencies between 89 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 4: like say Atlanta GDP, which is well above three percent 90 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 4: and the softening in the labor market, And it's really 91 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 4: about what are the banks seeing, What are we seeing 92 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 4: on credit, what are we seeing on lended on lending, 93 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 4: you know, and I'll view, we're we're seeing it's still 94 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 4: this kind of two speed economy where the high end 95 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 4: is doing well and there's more challenges, especially at the 96 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 4: lower end. So I want to see if that continues. 97 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:18,479 Speaker 4: We did get you know, Delta last week, which was 98 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 4: encouraging talking about, you know, an upgrade to their view 99 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:25,280 Speaker 4: based on the high end consumer. So I suspect that continues. 100 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:27,920 Speaker 4: But I think it is important And to be frank, 101 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 4: we're not selling here. We're sticking with the underlying trend. 102 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 4: But for us to add more to risk at this point, 103 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 4: we would prefer at least a little bit of a 104 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,479 Speaker 4: further pullback or more of a consolidation in time where 105 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 4: you kind of chop around and kind of reduce these expectations. 106 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 4: This morning, they'd be of a fund survey came out 107 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 4: and we saw that sentiment or allocations or the highest 108 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,840 Speaker 4: since February of this year. That was prior to the 109 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 4: setback which was exacerbated by the terriff and certanty. 110 00:04:57,279 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 1: Keith, when you're looking for catalysts to look at what 111 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: actually be a pullback in the market to then buy more. 112 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:05,479 Speaker 1: Is it going to be this month as the tensions 113 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 1: ratchet up between Washington and Beijing. 114 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I think it could be. And the 115 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,479 Speaker 4: other thing I've been looking for, Listen, I expect to 116 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 4: have a good earning season. You know, one thing, as 117 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 4: I mentioned, the north star of this bull market has 118 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 4: been earnings. So I'll be really interested to see how 119 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 4: stocks react to good earnings. Your last quarter, we went 120 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 4: into the earning season and expectations were really low. 121 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 3: There's a lot of us certainty around terrace. 122 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 4: What's interesting about heading into this earning season is analysts 123 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 4: have been raising their estimates into the earning season. 124 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 3: That's highly unusual. 125 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 4: Last time we saw that was in for the Q 126 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 4: four twenty twenty one. So that just also means we 127 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 4: have higher expectations and then it also comes down all. 128 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:47,680 Speaker 3: You know, later on. 129 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 4: We'll come down to tech. Tech's the big part of this. 130 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 4: Markeer Wistol bullsh on tech. Longer term, we still think 131 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 4: the dominant theme is tech. But you know, I want 132 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:57,640 Speaker 4: to see how stocks react to good news because I 133 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 4: certainly think we'll have a decent earning season of all. 134 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 2: So, Keith, we have seen these pockets are credit stress. 135 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 2: I think we should explore it as well. First Brands, trick 136 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:07,359 Speaker 2: a Law, Tricolor. Have we decided which one is Brando 137 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,360 Speaker 2: Tricolor Tricolor. 138 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 3: If you go south of the border. I think that 139 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 3: that's end. 140 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 2: Thank you, that's great, So, Keith, we've seeing those pockets 141 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 2: are credit stress, whatever Lisa said, and First Brands as well. Keith, 142 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:22,919 Speaker 2: do you think that's a private market issue and the 143 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:26,840 Speaker 2: public markets are insulcted from what's happening there, particularly financial institutions. 144 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 2: How are you in the team thinking about that situation. 145 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 4: For the most part, we do think it's idiosyncratic, but 146 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 4: we have to keep an open mind. We have seen 147 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 4: credit spreads over the last week and week or so 148 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 4: really kind of rise for the first time in a while. 149 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 4: We all know that credit spreads of you know, at 150 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 4: the lowest in some areas since the nineties, and you know, Friday, 151 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 4: in our view as a portfolio manager, was a good 152 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 4: stress test for us to see, you know, does diversifications 153 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 4: still work? I mean, you know, we've got some questions 154 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 4: for people why don't I own only tech or why 155 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 4: don't I only you know, why don't own any bonds? 156 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 4: And what we saw, especially on Friday is a good stress. 157 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 4: As we show high quality bonds do well outperform, we 158 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 4: show gold outperform, and then we show crypto actually underperformed. 159 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 4: So basic diversification works. 160 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 3: Again. 161 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 4: I am paying attention to the credit marks. We have 162 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 4: seen spreads move up, not even an alarming way, but 163 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 4: something we should at least, you know, at least pay 164 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 4: attention to. 165 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 5: Keith, you mentioned the Bank of America Fund Manager survey, 166 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 5: and in that survey, it showed that fifty seven percent 167 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 5: of all respondents thought that private credit private equity is 168 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 5: the latest source or the greatest source of any kind 169 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 5: of systemic risk or systemic credit event in the near future. 170 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 5: That is the most conviction that we've seen in terms 171 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 5: of a potential catalyst going back to twenty twenty two. 172 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 2: Do you agree with that? 173 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 5: Is that where you're looking for potential catalysts for some 174 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 5: sort of disruption. 175 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 4: Well, a lot of times the issues in in the 176 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 4: overle equity market begin with the credit market. 177 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 3: So is that the most concerning thing? You know? 178 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 4: I don't know, as I think about more of the 179 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 4: public markets. You know, we have a lot of companies 180 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 4: that have term you know, term dead, they have big 181 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 4: you know, cash balances, Earnings have been relatively positive. So 182 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 4: I don't know that we have like, you know, a 183 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 4: big credit event unfolding here. But we all do know 184 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 4: that there's been a huge amount of money into these 185 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 4: private markets. They're more more opaque, and I think that's 186 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 4: that's something that could kind of creep up more on 187 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 4: investors because. 188 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 3: It's just like, you know, we have less information there. 189 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 3: I think about, we have less information. 190 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 4: On the overall economy right now with without you know, 191 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 4: some of these you know, these economic reports, government reports. 192 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 4: So in the in the private credit markets, you just 193 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 4: have less information. So when things, you know, start to 194 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 4: unravel a little bit, you have less information to understand 195 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:42,800 Speaker 4: more broadly what's happening. But again, as I think about 196 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 4: more of the public markets, it's not something that at 197 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 4: this point, you know, we really see the systemic issue. 198 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:53,720 Speaker 2: Stay with us, multiple IMPERG survanance coming up after this. 199 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 2: John Cassidy of MBC Capital Markets Bank with us for 200 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 2: a final word on things. So today we've heard from 201 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 2: JP Morgan, Goldman City welst fago tomorrow. Morgan Stanley and 202 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,440 Speaker 2: Bank of America. What have we learned this morning and 203 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:16,000 Speaker 2: how does that inform your view of what we can 204 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 2: expect tomorrow, John, I. 205 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 7: Think what we should expect tomorrow is the fact that 206 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:24,440 Speaker 7: the trading results from Morgan stillly in Bank America are 207 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:27,679 Speaker 7: will likely mirror what you saw today from the big banks, 208 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 7: which were very good. You know, the FICK numbers in 209 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:33,239 Speaker 7: particular year of the year were strong, and we anticipate 210 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 7: that we'll see that for the others. Also, the investment 211 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:39,640 Speaker 7: banking results, as you pointed out already earlier in the show, 212 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 7: we're also strong and we should expect that as well 213 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:45,680 Speaker 7: from Bank America and Morgan Silly and finally on Bank 214 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 7: America since they've got a real deep dive into the consumer. 215 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 7: The consumer numbers we've seen today, whether it's JP, Morgan 216 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 7: City or Wells Fargo, all who were resilient, and we 217 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 7: would expect Bank America's numbers to be resilient in any 218 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 7: are as well. 219 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,680 Speaker 5: And on the call that John was mentioning JP Morgan 220 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 5: call the CFO of that bank saying that he's not 221 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 5: really seeing any cracks in the credit market aside from 222 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:12,320 Speaker 5: a couple of vidiosyncratic areas, and says that for investment banking, 223 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 5: all drivers are pretty much in place. I do wonder, though, 224 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 5: that what we heard from the Wells Fargo on their 225 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 5: call is that middle market clients are still cautious on borrowing. 226 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 5: How much to expect the success to be mirrored in 227 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:26,720 Speaker 5: smaller and mid size banks that are going to report 228 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 5: that might be more leveraged to those middle market clients. 229 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 7: It's going to be interesting, Lisa, because certainly Wells has 230 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 7: got a good read on the middle market of the 231 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 7: US is predominantly a US bank, and the regional banks, though, 232 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 7: could also benefit from the fact that the capital expenditures 233 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:49,560 Speaker 7: that we're anticipating due to the big beautiful bill that 234 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 7: was passed in July, with the depreciation of one hundred 235 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 7: percent of those capital expenditures in year one, could drive 236 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 7: commercial and industrial loan demand. It's interesting to know JP 237 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:03,280 Speaker 7: Morgan's long growth year of the year was seven percent. 238 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 7: Wells was much lower, closer to two percent. So I 239 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 7: think what you're going to see is that Wells is 240 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:10,839 Speaker 7: still coming out of that asset half. 241 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 3: It's going to take time. 242 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 7: They have indicated that and so I think the read 243 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 7: to the regionals is still positive based upon what we 244 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 7: saw from JP Morgan's long growth. 245 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 5: Gerard, I know that you probably don't want to pick 246 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 5: favorites or winners, but so far it is early. Who 247 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 5: do you think is winning the earning season right now? 248 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 3: Of the four that came out? 249 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 7: Obviously, JP Morgan's numbers were very strong across the board, 250 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 7: so you probably have to put them up at the 251 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 7: top of the leaderboard. City's numbers were also very good. 252 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 7: They had a higher tax rate, which on the bottom 253 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 7: line basis impacted EPs, so he probably put them up second. 254 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 7: And then you know the other two Goldman and Wells 255 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 7: are tied for third. You know, there's gold, silver, and 256 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 7: bronze for everybody. 257 00:11:57,080 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 2: Stay on the Federal Reserve, Joe Davis a Vanguard Rights 258 00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:01,560 Speaker 2: the follow up, We expect the Fed to ease once 259 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 2: more in twenty five, with October that meeting being slightly 260 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:07,959 Speaker 2: more likely to join us now for more Joe, welcome 261 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 2: to the program. What makes October more likely given we 262 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,119 Speaker 2: are lights on economic takes at the moment. 263 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:16,440 Speaker 6: Well, I think it's just the slowdown we've seen in 264 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 6: the labor market. Clearly there's a number of forces at work. 265 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:22,040 Speaker 6: We've seen some supply come down materially over the course 266 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 6: of this year, but the fact is demand and businesses 267 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:27,560 Speaker 6: have held back on hiring too, and so for that reason, 268 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:30,319 Speaker 6: you know, our assessment over for over two years is 269 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 6: the Federal Reserve has been restrictive, perhaps not as restrictive 270 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 6: as something, and so this is really getting them to 271 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 6: that elusive neutral rate, which no one knows what it is, 272 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 6: but I think their approaching where it should be. 273 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 2: Jomike McKee talked about it, the amount of division on 274 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve. I assume you believe there is a 275 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:49,199 Speaker 2: consensus on how to move forward. I'm struggling to identify 276 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:51,960 Speaker 2: that consensus given the amount of different views I see 277 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:55,559 Speaker 2: in the FED speed What do you see? 278 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 6: Well, I think this is actually somewhat typical of the 279 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 6: various fastest the ecomomy you could look at when you're 280 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 6: actually close to let's call it appropriate. I mean, you 281 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 6: have a GDP numbers that would at the margin say 282 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:10,440 Speaker 6: you shouldn't be easy at all. The inflation would point 283 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 6: to that as well. But then you've got the labor 284 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 6: market that would suggest that you've got to take a 285 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 6: little risk management in these policy So I think with 286 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:22,320 Speaker 6: that depend upon how policymakers wait those various data feeds. Again, 287 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,679 Speaker 6: we're going to have a lack of visibility here. I 288 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 6: think that's actually par for the course where we're at now. 289 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 5: I just wonder how much they are prioritizing the labor 290 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:32,199 Speaker 5: market if they cut rates by another fifty basis points. 291 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 5: I mean, what is the direct read through to actually 292 00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 5: supporting the labor market. 293 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 6: Well, I think that's the key issue. And actually the 294 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:44,160 Speaker 6: gap between where GDP is and where the jobs market 295 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 6: is I think is the key issue for the next 296 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:50,079 Speaker 6: six or twelve months, because there's the gap close because 297 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 6: protivity is starting the rise, and we'll start to see 298 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:54,960 Speaker 6: then a stabilization and perhaps the modest firming in the 299 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 6: labor market. 300 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:56,719 Speaker 3: That's case A. 301 00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:59,959 Speaker 6: Case B though, is that the labor market is simply 302 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 6: of weaker growth ahead and then GDP would come down. 303 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 6: That's a more recessionary impulse. We lean on the form 304 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 6: or not the latter, but it's explaining that gap. That's 305 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:11,679 Speaker 6: the critical policy diagnosis over the next six months. 306 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 5: How much is this sort of quietly a federal reserve 307 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 5: that is aware of the fiscal sustainability of the United States. 308 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 5: And I say this with a lot of questions around 309 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 5: FED independence, but this is an issue facing central banks 310 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 5: around the world, the idea that there is just so 311 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 5: much government debt outstanding that inflation concerns have to be 312 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 5: paired much more with fiscal sustainability and paying back that 313 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 5: debt than they do, say anything else. I mean, how 314 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 5: much is that coming into play here in the back 315 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 5: of some people's minds. 316 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 6: I think it's in the backdrop, but it's increasingly will 317 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:45,800 Speaker 6: be in the forefront of the next several years. And 318 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 6: you see that in the price of gold, which would 319 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 6: seem inconsistent its rise with the S and P five 320 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 6: hundred in our framework, it's not. I mean, what we 321 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 6: have said for two years is that there's this coming 322 00:14:56,080 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 6: tug of war between AI's transformative ability on a positive side, 323 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 6: and then if it disappoints some of the deficit pressures, 324 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 6: which again you're mentioning. You see a little bit that 325 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 6: in the so called the basement trade. We are just 326 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 6: starting this sort of tug of war, and that is 327 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 6: how the market is going to play out over the 328 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 6: next three years. 329 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 1: Is that tension Joe air inflation concern is going to 330 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 1: be more front and center for the FED at the 331 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 1: end of the month, not just because we're going to 332 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 1: get the CPI report, but also because the rationing up 333 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 1: of tensions and rhetoric and sanctions between Washington and Beijing. 334 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think they're still assuming and I think it's 335 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 6: appropriate that although inflation has been sticky, some of the 336 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 6: so called dare I say transitory factors are the tariffs, 337 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 6: You have to look through some of that. That was 338 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 6: our thesis that the Federal Reserve would start to ease policy, 339 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 6: and its some one of the biggest rationales for us 340 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 6: expecting it in October, and I think it's appropriate. I 341 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 6: think the FED will look at the financial markets, less 342 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 6: so gold, but more break even inflation rates, term premium, 343 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 6: the treasury market, and that's still somewhat reassuring that we 344 00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 6: don't have a material inflation problem, certainly not what we 345 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 6: had in twenty twenty two. 346 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 4: Too. 347 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 6: The key question comes back to where's the labor market 348 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 6: six to twelve months. In a federal reserve that has ease, 349 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 6: then there would be a reassessment. 350 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 1: But when it comes to the recent trade rhetoric and 351 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 1: the tit for tap between Washington and Beijing. If we 352 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 1: don't get some sort of deal by the end of 353 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 1: the month and this bleeds into twenty twenty six, how 354 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 1: much more concerning does this story become for them? 355 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 3: How challenging? 356 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 6: Well, it becomes certainly concerning. Again, this is not a 357 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,440 Speaker 6: great shock if you're central banker, if you're an investor, 358 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 6: to face right, because you have downward pressure on growth 359 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 6: if tariff goes up even from the uncertainty, and you 360 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 6: push up the inflation rates. So it's clearly stagflation area. 361 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 6: It's a sort of card you don't want to be 362 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 6: to have dealt I think you have a federal reserve. 363 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 6: That's assuming the inflation is more temporary than the labor market. 364 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 6: There's a little bit of risk in that assessment, but 365 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 6: I think that's fair for now. But the drag into 366 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 6: twenty twenty six that would be I think unexpected should 367 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 6: the trade rhetoric. 368 00:16:57,320 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 2: Accelerateed this more Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. So 369 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,280 Speaker 2: here's the likes this morning, Americans feeling the pinch of 370 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,399 Speaker 2: the shutdown Stown May. President Trump promising to pay troops 371 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 2: tomorrow but holding back checks from other federal workers. And 372 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 2: I'm happy to say we can extend the conversation with 373 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 2: New York Congressman Michael Laula Congressman. Welcome back to the 374 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 2: program sir. The good news the military looks like it's 375 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 2: getting paid. Can you just walk us through how you 376 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 2: would characterize current negotiations. 377 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:40,600 Speaker 8: Well, the Democrats refused to do their job. You know, 378 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:45,679 Speaker 8: Ham Jeffries talks about getting permission. The reality here is 379 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 8: that AOC and Zorn Mandani and the progressive left are 380 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:54,359 Speaker 8: who's driving this ship here. Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries 381 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 8: have been petrified to do their jobs, and so they 382 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 8: shut the government down for fear of a primary challenge 383 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 8: from the left and to show their progressive base that 384 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 8: they're quote unquote fighting back, resisting you know, President Trump. 385 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 8: And it's fundamentally wrong. They are holding the American people hostage. 386 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:23,000 Speaker 8: House Republicans passed a clean continuing resolution over three weeks 387 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:26,120 Speaker 8: ago to keep the government funded, to pay for all 388 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 8: of these critical programs, to ensure that our troops are paid, 389 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 8: to ensure that border patrol agents are paid. And yet 390 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:39,680 Speaker 8: Democrats have voted over eight times against the clean CR. 391 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 8: And we'll see what Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats do today. 392 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:45,359 Speaker 3: But it doesn't look good. 393 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 8: And you know, when I was in Washington last week, 394 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 8: I went and confronted Hakeem Jeffries to his face and 395 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,440 Speaker 8: pointed out that if he's serious about tackling the healthcare 396 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:01,640 Speaker 8: challenges in our country, sign on to the bipartisan legislation 397 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:05,160 Speaker 8: that would do that. And he refused. So this really 398 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:09,160 Speaker 8: is not about healthcare. It's not about a specific policy outcome. 399 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 8: This is about Democrats showing their progressive base that they're 400 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 8: fighting back against President Trump. Meanwhile, look at the juxtaposition. 401 00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:20,879 Speaker 8: President Trump on a twenty four hour trip to the 402 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:25,400 Speaker 8: Middle East secured peace and Democrats are playing patty cake 403 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:29,439 Speaker 8: here in Washington, DC, shutting the government down and holding 404 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 8: the American people hostage. 405 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 1: Well, were two weeks. There's going to be some off 406 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 1: ramp at some point. Would you support structural changes to 407 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 1: the Affordable Care Act premium subsidies in exchange for an 408 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:42,880 Speaker 1: extension to get the government. 409 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:44,720 Speaker 3: Back up and working well. 410 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 8: To be clear, the off ramp is the clean cr 411 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,880 Speaker 8: that's been sitting in the Senate for over three weeks 412 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 8: with respect to the Affordable Care Act number one since 413 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 8: Obamacare took effect in twenty ten, you've seen premium skyrocket 414 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:04,639 Speaker 8: across the and Democrats put in place these enhanced tax 415 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 8: credits during COVID. They were slated to expire at the 416 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 8: end of this year. Democrats knew that they passed it 417 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:17,959 Speaker 8: into law, and they knew that they couldn't extend it 418 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 8: beyond that period because of the cost associated with it. 419 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 8: I have signed on to legislation to extend it by 420 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 8: a year because we don't want Americans' healthcare premiums to spike. 421 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 8: But it speaks to the fundamental problem with Obamacare, which 422 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 8: is that it didn't actually do what it was intended 423 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 8: to do, which is reduce health care cost in America, 424 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:45,760 Speaker 8: and in fact, it has exploded since its inception. So look, 425 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 8: I am open to obviously solving the issue both short 426 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:55,200 Speaker 8: term and long term. We have to address the cost 427 00:20:55,240 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 8: of health care in this country. But Democrats just you know, 428 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 8: pounding their fists on the table, stomping their feet and 429 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 8: demanding their way is not the way to govern. You 430 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:09,879 Speaker 8: don't hold the American people hostage. And by the way, 431 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,000 Speaker 8: don't take my word for it. Go look at every 432 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 8: quote from Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi and name 433 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 8: the Democrat. They all previously believed that you don't use 434 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 8: government shutdowns to exert policy outcomes, and now fundamentally they 435 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,160 Speaker 8: have changed their view because Donald Trump is president. 436 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 1: Congressman. Also being held hostage right now is data which 437 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,919 Speaker 1: the financial services industry, the FED, we all rely on. 438 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: You are on the Financial Services Committee. Do you think 439 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,680 Speaker 1: the White House should deem the BLS data like the 440 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 1: jobs report we're still waiting on essential. 441 00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:50,399 Speaker 8: Look, obviously that information is critically important for the FED 442 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 8: and others to do the work that is required. But 443 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,440 Speaker 8: this is the fundamental challenge. They're trying to figure out 444 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:02,199 Speaker 8: how to pay for, for instance, are troops, which is vital. 445 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,880 Speaker 8: They're trying to figure out how to pay for critical 446 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 8: programs like Wick and Snap and so these are the 447 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:15,879 Speaker 8: very difficult decisions that any administration is put in because 448 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:19,720 Speaker 8: of the incalcitrants of my Democratic colleagues. Here. Look, I've 449 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 8: been opposed to government shutdowns, regardless of who has tried 450 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 8: to do it. I criticized my Republican colleagues last Congress 451 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 8: when some of them wanted to shut the government down 452 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:33,239 Speaker 8: over Joe Biden's disastrous open borders, while I agreed with 453 00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 8: them on the merits. The fact is shutting the government 454 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 8: down wasn't going to solve that problem. And the same 455 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 8: applies here. What the Democrats are doing is creating more problems. 456 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 8: The FED, to your point, needs to be able to 457 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,440 Speaker 8: do its job. They need to cut rates. They need 458 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 8: the information with respect to jobs for instance, that is 459 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,640 Speaker 8: critically important. So yes, we want them to be able 460 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 8: to get that information. The fastest way for all of 461 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,159 Speaker 8: this to come to an end, the fastest way to 462 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,639 Speaker 8: ensure that government does its job, is for my Democratic 463 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 8: colleagues to go back to Washington today in the Senate 464 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 8: and vote yes to open the government up and pass 465 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 8: the clean cr The. 466 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,879 Speaker 1: White House has also taken aim on projects in New 467 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,440 Speaker 1: York City, eighteen million dollars worth of New York City 468 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 1: infrastructure projects. You are in a swing district and you 469 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 1: are facing a lot of challenges. A lot of Democrats 470 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 1: are lining up to try to flip that seat come 471 00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:30,880 Speaker 1: the midterms. Are you concerned about potentially the pushback you're 472 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 1: going to get from things like this billions of dollars 473 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:35,160 Speaker 1: being frozen right here in New York. 474 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:40,720 Speaker 8: Look, I've already spoken out against the freeze on that project, 475 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:45,480 Speaker 8: and I've been in touch with the administration to get 476 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 8: that project back up and running. Are they going to 477 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 8: But again, the fastest way to do that is to 478 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 8: pass the clean cr And that's the point that I've 479 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 8: made over the last week to my New York colleagues 480 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 8: to the press that these projects can easily come back 481 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 8: online when the government is open and running. Gateway is 482 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 8: a critical project for my district. We don't have a 483 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,880 Speaker 8: one seat ride from Rockland County where I live. Gateway 484 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,640 Speaker 8: will provide that. So this is a critical infrastructure project, 485 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,359 Speaker 8: not just for New York City or New Jersey, but 486 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:26,480 Speaker 8: for the region. But this is something that I've fully 487 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:30,360 Speaker 8: supported in terms of getting the funding for that project 488 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,919 Speaker 8: and will continue to fight to do it. But again, 489 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,840 Speaker 8: based on conversations, it's not that hard to figure out 490 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:39,879 Speaker 8: if you open up the government, a lot of this 491 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 8: stuff will be resolved. 492 00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 2: This is the bloomberg S Events podcast, bringing you the 493 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:49,240 Speaker 2: best in markets, economics, antient politics. You can watch the 494 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,240 Speaker 2: show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am 495 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:56,359 Speaker 2: to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 496 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the 497 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,120 Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal, The Bloomberg bars this out. 498 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 6: Mm hmm