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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you happy? Wednesday? Welcome in

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Speaker 1: to another episode of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name

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Speaker 1: is Matt Perrault. You guys can follow me across all

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Speaker 1: socials at Sports Talk Matt. This podcast being brought to

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Speaker 1: two and one last night, so a wedding night could

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Speaker 1: have swept it. I don't want to come on here

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Speaker 1: and cry about a two in one night. I'm always

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Speaker 1: going to be happy. Yell, go two and one the

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Speaker 1: rest of my life and be very very happy if

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Speaker 1: that's what would happen. But man, so, if you didn't

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Speaker 1: watch the game for BYU and Houston, they were down

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Speaker 1: one same thing, like the same time about about forty

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Speaker 1: five seconds like the Stony Brook game a couple of

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Speaker 1: nights ago. But the best three point shooter for BYU,

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Speaker 1: top of the key, wide open three heel back heel

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Speaker 1: missed it. If he knocks that down, we're gonna cover.

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Speaker 1: Now I'm not sure BYU wins the game, but we're

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Speaker 1: gonna cover because by is gonna go up by two,

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Speaker 1: Houston's gonna go down, bleed the clock. Maybe Houston wins

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Speaker 1: the game by one or two or three points, but

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Speaker 1: the plus we probably would have been good. Maybe one

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Speaker 1: or two or BYU wins the game outright, So make

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Speaker 1: your miss game to make or miss league, as they say.

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Speaker 1: So we get two easy w's. South Carolina worked Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: That game wasn't even close, and then West Virginia got

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Speaker 1: blown out like I thought that they would after they

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Speaker 1: beat KU. It was just it was obvious they go

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Speaker 1: on the road. It's like, yeah, that's a bad matchup

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Speaker 1: for West Virginia. There. So we got their loss correct

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Speaker 1: and we got the win for South Carolina right, two

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Speaker 1: and one up point nine units on the night. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so we're back here again. Three bets. I am going

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Speaker 1: to dip my toe in hockey, all right. I got

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Speaker 1: two college basketball bets. This is a I got two games.

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Speaker 1: This was a tough I did a lot of research,

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Speaker 1: I really, I went back and forth on a bunch

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Speaker 1: of different plays. Normally I like trust my gut and

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Speaker 1: I'm a little bit on the analytical side on this

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Speaker 1: one for the for my first college basketball bet. But

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Speaker 1: I'll explain that here in a second. Let's start with hockey.

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Speaker 1: Saint Louis Is at Vancouver. Vancouver has just been tremendous

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Speaker 1: at home. I mean, just a great, great team at home.

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Speaker 1: They are seventeen to four and one at home. Saint

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Speaker 1: Louis is nine twelve and one on the road. Now

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Speaker 1: you might go, Matt, just take the favorite. Well, it's

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Speaker 1: minus two twenty, all right, it's really expensive. I do

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Speaker 1: think Vancouver is going to win this game over Saint Louis,

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Speaker 1: but I'm not in love with it. Matt, lay the

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Speaker 1: puck line? Yeah, but how many times have I had

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Speaker 1: that happen? We lose by taking the puck line and

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Speaker 1: giving my record in hockey. I don't want to like

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Speaker 1: tempt fate. Okay, so it's plus one, it's plus one ten.

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Speaker 1: If you want to lay the goal and a half,

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Speaker 1: you can do that if you want. Vancouver has been,

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Speaker 1: you know, relatively on the puck line this year. Vancouver's

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Speaker 1: been tremendous. I mean, in fact, they are the number

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Speaker 1: one team on the puck line in the entire NHL

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Speaker 1: thirty three and fourteen on the puck line. You'd be

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Speaker 1: up twenty four units if you played every game involving

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Speaker 1: Vancouver on the puck line. The total of this game

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Speaker 1: is either six or six and a half. Again, I

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Speaker 1: don't mind betting Vancouver. I don't mind betting Vancouver on

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Speaker 1: the puck line. I don't mind betting Vancouver in sixty

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Speaker 1: in regulation, Okay, I don't. I don't mind that bet

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Speaker 1: at all. Let's see what the price is for that game.

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Speaker 1: Betting it in sixty will get you a minus one

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Speaker 1: sixty price, So it's not that much better. But you

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Speaker 1: can bet that, okay. So either plus one and a

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Speaker 1: half goals the most profitable team in all of hockey

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Speaker 1: for Vancouver, you can take it. However, I'm gonna look

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Speaker 1: to the total. It's either six or six and a half. Okay.

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Speaker 1: FanDuel has this at six and a half, because Fandel

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Speaker 1: does not do half numbers. Okay, most books are at

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Speaker 1: six juice to the over, FanDuel is at six and

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Speaker 1: a half juice to the under. I'd rather go under.

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Speaker 1: Why Okay, So if you look at the last five

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Speaker 1: games for the Blues five to two, four to three,

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Speaker 1: four to two, five nothing, three nothing, last three games

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Speaker 1: have all gone under. Saint Louis is a team. Well,

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Speaker 1: last game four to three, there were last night. They're

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Speaker 1: on a back to back four to three. They won

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Speaker 1: the game at Calgary for to three, not not in

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Speaker 1: went over, but not in regulation, in regulation, sorry, not

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Speaker 1: in overtime for the Canucks they've played. Did they play

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Speaker 1: last night? And I don't believe they did. Ye, That's

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Speaker 1: why they're very favorite. The didn't play last night and

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Speaker 1: then on a back to back two nothing, sixty four

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Speaker 1: to two one, four to three, one nothing, back and forth,

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Speaker 1: back and forth, up and down. Right, So if you're

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Speaker 1: going off that to three and two, mark to the under.

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Speaker 1: Over the last five games, these team teams have played

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Speaker 1: two times so far five nothing win for the Canucks,

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Speaker 1: two to one win for the Blues. Home team has

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Speaker 1: won both games. Thatcher Demco is expected in net for Vancouver.

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Speaker 1: Thatcher Demco for most of this year has been tremendous

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Speaker 1: at home goals against average of two point one to three,

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Speaker 1: sixteen and three record. All right, I'm making a hell

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Speaker 1: of a case to bet the puck line. I get it.

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Speaker 1: I'm just scared to bet the puck line. Puck lines

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Speaker 1: for the good bet they're going up against a young

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Speaker 1: goaltender for Saint Louis. And it's not Bennington, which I

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Speaker 1: kind of like, it's Hawfer. All right. He's seven and

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Speaker 1: eight with a two point eight eight goals against average,

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Speaker 1: but on the road he has more than a full

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Speaker 1: goal difference. On the road, he's four and four with

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Speaker 1: a two point three six goals against average. At home

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Speaker 1: he's three and four for a three point four to

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Speaker 1: eight goals against average. Big, big difference. Last time out

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Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh for to three loss, give up three goals

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Speaker 1: open net goal. Came in against Florida on the road

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Speaker 1: for to one. He'll give up one goal. Against Tampa

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Speaker 1: on the road, a six to one loss. He came

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Speaker 1: in in relief, give up one goal five to two

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Speaker 1: loss to Columbus. He gave up four goals in that one.

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Speaker 1: We don't want to see that happen. And then against

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Speaker 1: Arizona a four to three loss. I'm sorry for to

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Speaker 1: one loss. He gave up three goals. I don't know

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Speaker 1: how many goals Thatcher Demko is going to give up tonight.

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Speaker 1: I think two is what I kind of fee feel

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Speaker 1: so like, I think this is a four to two win,

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Speaker 1: and I want to take the extra half a puck

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Speaker 1: and say, all right, go under AMS one twenty two,

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Speaker 1: under six and a half. You can bet the over

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Speaker 1: six if you want. There's a really good push potential

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Speaker 1: for that. But what if he's a three to one win,

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Speaker 1: right or a three to two win. I'd rather play

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Speaker 1: the under. I feel better about the under than I

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Speaker 1: do crossing my fingers and hoping that we get home

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Speaker 1: on the puck line. Yes, it's a plus money bet,

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Speaker 1: but I feel look, it could be a five to

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Speaker 1: two win. It's very possible. Maybe Hofford gets completely lit up.

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Speaker 1: Like I mentioned, he's much better at home than he

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Speaker 1: on the road rather than he is at home. And

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Speaker 1: that your demco has just been I mean, he's in

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Speaker 1: the conversation for the VESNA. If it wasn't ever what

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Speaker 1: hell Buck's been doing, I think you could come in

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Speaker 1: and say, like you know that your Demko would wind

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Speaker 1: up winning the VESNA right now if you know too.

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Speaker 1: He's twenty five, eight and one with a two point

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Speaker 1: four zero goals against average in his games at home recently,

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Speaker 1: last came out shut out Chicago two nothing. Gave up

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Speaker 1: four goals against Toronto, which is more on them here

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Speaker 1: in a second, then one goal to Arizona. The last

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Speaker 1: three homestading gave up five goals in three games. Okay,

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Speaker 1: before that at home against Ottawa, gave up three goals. Again.

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Speaker 1: San Jose gave up four goals against Florida. He shut

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Speaker 1: him out. Against Tampa, he gave up one. Like he's

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Speaker 1: just won. Two or three goals is what he's gonna

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Speaker 1: give up tonight, probably two four to two final. I'm

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Speaker 1: going under under six and a half minus one twenty two.

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Speaker 1: Fandels got this thatch Deemco and Vancouver at home under

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Speaker 1: six and a half. I mentioned Toronto, so the Bruins

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Speaker 1: lit up. The Winnipeg Jets just absolutely lit him up.

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Speaker 1: You can bet the under two and a half again

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Speaker 1: if you want, involving the Jets on the road against Toronto,

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Speaker 1: you can, but given the offensive firepower for Toronto, I

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Speaker 1: am very wary of doing this it's gonna come back

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Speaker 1: down to earth. We know this. We're gonna see a

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Speaker 1: run here. The team total for the Toronto Maple Leafs

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Speaker 1: under two and a half goals is plus one fifty.

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Speaker 1: That's a bigger price than what the Boston Bruins were

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Speaker 1: when they score four goals in the last game against Winnipeg.

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Speaker 1: They were plus one forty. So I don't know. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you can play the trend if you want. I'm not

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Speaker 1: even gonna get involved, because again, I think it does

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Speaker 1: wind up wind up evening itself out and we could

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Speaker 1: see a run here where we're like, oh my gosh,

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Speaker 1: what happened to that streak and what happened to the Jets.

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Speaker 1: It's scary to me to come in and say that

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Speaker 1: the Toronto's not going to score three goals. I think

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Speaker 1: it's really possible to score three goals and then you lose.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be Samson off in that for Toronto. It's

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Speaker 1: pro swaw in net for Winnipeg, which isn't awful, okay.

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Speaker 1: I mean both Goldens are really good seven and three

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Speaker 1: with a two point one to eight goals against average,

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Speaker 1: you know, in eleven outings so far this year, he's

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Speaker 1: been tremendous with a two point one eight goals against

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Speaker 1: average at nine to twenty three save percentage. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean the mainple Leaf's offense is really good, top five

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Speaker 1: in the NHL. So best of luck. If you want

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Speaker 1: to go ahead and jump on. That's if it is

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Speaker 1: gonna be brosois that's gonna be tough. So I don't

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Speaker 1: know I would be careful of that if I were

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Speaker 1: you in terms of riding that Jets trend okay under

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Speaker 1: six and a half mins one twenty two, one point two,

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Speaker 1: two units down. All right, let's talk about Alabama and Auburn.

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Speaker 1: This is the game of the night. Ken Palm's fifth

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Speaker 1: ranked team in Auburn Alabama. Ken Pump's eighth ranked team.

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Speaker 1: Alabama the number two offense inefficiency in college basketball, Auburn

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Speaker 1: the seventh ranked defense inefficiency. Alabama's offense third in effective

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Speaker 1: field goal percentage, Auburn's defense third in effective field goal percentage.

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Speaker 1: Bama's three point percentage thirteenth in college basketball, Auburn's three

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Speaker 1: point defense eighteenth in college basketball. Two point percentage eleventh

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Speaker 1: for Alabama in college basketball, Auburn third in college basketball.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is offense power versus defensive power the

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Speaker 1: total in this game. Kempom has this at one sixty eight.

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Speaker 1: It's down to one sixty one. Like, there is something

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Speaker 1: going on right now in terms of either Auburn or

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Speaker 1: they believe that Auburn's gonna take the air out of

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Speaker 1: the ball in a big, big way and they're not

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Speaker 1: gonna look to run or allow Alabama to run. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's down to one sixty one, one sixty one and

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Speaker 1: a half. This open at one sixty five and a half. Again,

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Speaker 1: kempom has this at one sixty eight as a massive

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Speaker 1: discrepancy between these two teams. Now you can sort of

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Speaker 1: play it out though as so, like why would an

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Speaker 1: over be a real big possibility? Well, Auburn on the

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Speaker 1: year seventy seventh in adjusted tempo, Alabama twenty fifth in

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Speaker 1: adjusted tempo. Alabama wants to run and shoot threes. Here

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Speaker 1: is the inch interesting part here. Auburn's defense is great,

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Speaker 1: Alabama's defense isn't bad. Auburn's offense is eighth best in efficiency,

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Speaker 1: very efficient offense for Auburn for Bruce Pearl, forty seventh

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Speaker 1: in effective field goal percentage, but one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: fifth and three point percentage twenty seventh and two point percentage.

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Speaker 1: They get half of their points from inside the arc.

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Speaker 1: They get twenty eight percent of their points outside the arc.

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Speaker 1: They don't shoot the three. This game is gonna come

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Speaker 1: down to three point shooting. Period. Alabama gets thirty eight

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Speaker 1: percent of their points from behind the arc. That is

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Speaker 1: twenty seventh in college basketball in terms of the number

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Speaker 1: twenty seven in terms of how many points they get

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Speaker 1: inside the top thirty for points from behind the arc.

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Speaker 1: They jack threes right, three point attempts per game. Well,

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Speaker 1: they put them up man forty seven attempts per game

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Speaker 1: from behind the arc. They're gonna run, they're gonna gun,

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Speaker 1: and they're gonna look to shoot. Here is the interesting

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Speaker 1: thing with Auburn. I listened to the press conference yesterday

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Speaker 1: with Bruce Pearl. I really went deep here. I looked

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Speaker 1: a team notes and I listened to Bruce Pearl, and

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Speaker 1: he said, we're not tested on the road. We're not.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna be after this week because they have Alabama

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Speaker 1: and then they turn it around Saturday and go to

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Speaker 1: Starkville to play Mississippi State. But that concerns me. This

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Speaker 1: Auburn team lost at Appalachian State. They beat Arkansas eighty

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Speaker 1: three p. Fifty one, and that's a tough place to

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Speaker 1: play with bub Walts Arena. But how good is Arkansas?

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Speaker 1: I don't really know. Lost a Baylor to start the

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Speaker 1: year eighty eight to eighty two. But since the lost

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Speaker 1: Appalachian State, they beat Indiana, they beat usc they beat Arkansas,

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Speaker 1: they beat A and M, they beat LSU, they beat Vanderbilt,

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Speaker 1: they beat Old Miss. How good are they? I mean

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Speaker 1: bet Auburn's number one win this year is over Texas

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Speaker 1: A and M six six fifty five at home. The

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Speaker 1: forty first ranked team in kempop Alabama is eight. They

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Speaker 1: haven't played anybody inside the top ten. Now I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying Alabama's schedule is that much better, but it kinda is.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Alabama went through a trek where they played Perdue,

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Speaker 1: Creighton in Alabama and three straight games. Now they lost

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Speaker 1: them all, Okay, but they played against Perdue on our

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Speaker 1: neutral They went to Omaha to play the Creighton Blue

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Speaker 1: Jays and they went to a semi We went to

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Speaker 1: Phoenix to play Arizona and the lost eighty seven to

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Speaker 1: seventy four. That game got away from them. But in

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Speaker 1: terms of like, who have they played? They played Tennessee

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Speaker 1: in their last game and they lost by twenty. This

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Speaker 1: doesn't factor into my trend of loser road game and

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Speaker 1: come back home and you're a dog, Bama's favored, Bama's

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Speaker 1: minus two and a half. I gotta go with my

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Speaker 1: gut here college basketball on the road. Yes, I know,

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Speaker 1: Houston beat BYU last night and we were on the

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Speaker 1: home dog and we lost. I understand that, But look

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Speaker 1: at South Carolina did to Kentuck last night. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's a that's an unranked team that destroyed a top

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Speaker 1: ten team, destroyed them. They needed it. South Carolina desperately

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Speaker 1: needed it and they killed them. I'm gonna lay the

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Speaker 1: two and a half points Alabama minus two and a

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Speaker 1: half up against the guess against Auburn. Here, I went

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Speaker 1: and looked at the historic numbers Alabama. Last year they

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Speaker 1: beat him twice two times. Last year Alabama has won

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Speaker 1: the last two times. No sorry, last year they beat

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Speaker 1: him at home ninety to eighty five. It was a

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Speaker 1: ten point spread that didn't cover, but they won. In

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty, they won at Alabama, one at Auburn, and

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Speaker 1: they won at home the last year. Two years ago,

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Speaker 1: Alabama lost eighty one seventy seven. They were three point

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Speaker 1: home favorites and they lost this game. Nate Oates remembers

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Speaker 1: that Bama won. In March of twenty twenty one. Bama

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Speaker 1: won seventy to fifty eight. The last two times this

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Speaker 1: game has been played in Tuscalusa, the game's gone over.

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Speaker 1: I don't mind the over, it's the line move that's

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Speaker 1: the problem for me right now. I'm I'm really worried

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Speaker 1: about that. I mean, that's significant. Kempom has this. It's

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Speaker 1: a seven point discrepancy and it's not going back up.

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Speaker 1: It's going down sixty one sixty one. Kempom one's sixty eight.

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Speaker 1: It's one sixty one. You don't see that very often

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Speaker 1: unless a major player for Auburn is out. I have

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Speaker 1: scoured looking around, and I go like, what who could

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Speaker 1: be out for Auburn? I can't see it. Who's out

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Speaker 1: for Bama? I can't find it. No injuries to report,

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Speaker 1: should be good to go. Look, I read a big

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Speaker 1: breakdown in the Tuscaloosa News. They're taking Auburn to win

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Speaker 1: this game, saying Alabama hasn't beaten anybody yet. Good. Auburn

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Speaker 1: hasn't played anybody good yet. I can't back Auburn because, well,

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Speaker 1: Auburn hasn't beaten anybody. As I mentioned, you could say, well, Matt,

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Speaker 1: They've played Ohio State, they played Clemson, they played Tennessee,

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Speaker 1: they played Arizona, they played Creighton, they played Perdue. They

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Speaker 1: lost every game. True, the difference none. Only one of

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Speaker 1: those games was at home. Clemson was at home. They

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Speaker 1: lost that game. Everything else was neutral or on the road.

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Speaker 1: This game's at home. This is a rivalry game. Not

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Speaker 1: saying Nate Oates kind of has Bruce Pearl's number, but

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Speaker 1: it's college basketball. It's a rivalry game, it's on the road.

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Speaker 1: It's essentially a money line play. I'm laying the two

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Speaker 1: and a half Alabama minus two and a half for

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Speaker 1: one point one units and the third bet. You can

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Speaker 1: take everything I just said and throw it out the window.

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Speaker 1: Because Iowa State is hosting Kansas State. According to kempom,

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Speaker 1: it's a nine point win for Iowa State. Line's eight.

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Speaker 1: This is the big twelve. I know. Iowa State has

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Speaker 1: one and covered by an average of ten points. Iowa

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Speaker 1: State at home is ten and one ats. I'm not

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Speaker 1: kidding you. They're ten in one ATS. That is an

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Speaker 1: incredible mark. I always state it's going to be extremely

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Speaker 1: difficult to face here tonight for Kansas State. But the

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Speaker 1: thing is that k State is five and two ats

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Speaker 1: on the road. There's seven and three over the last

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Speaker 1: ten and four and one in conference. Iowy State it's

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Speaker 1: three and two in conference ATS. Yes, they're ten and one.

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma State they killed them well by twenty four against Houston.

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Speaker 1: We bet them they're won by four. But those are

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Speaker 1: the only two games they've played at home in the

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Speaker 1: Big twelve. Everything else is kind of cupcake city, Like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: they killed Iowa, all right, great, how goods Iowa? They

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Speaker 1: killed Grambling, they killed Idaho State, they killed Florida A

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Speaker 1: and M killed Eastern Illinois. Like the numbers inflated, the

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Speaker 1: ten and one numbers kind of inflated or on the road,

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Speaker 1: Kansas State has gone to West Virginia won by fourteen.

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Speaker 1: When two Texas Tech lost by one a six point dogs.

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Speaker 1: They covered against LSU on the road three point dogs.

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Speaker 1: They won by fifteen. They took on Nova as a

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Speaker 1: home game. I mean they've just played I think a

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Speaker 1: tougher brand of competition, to be quite honest, and who

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Speaker 1: Case State has played. I mean Case State on the road,

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Speaker 1: lost Texas Tech. They lost to Nebraska at home, which

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Speaker 1: was somewhat of the surprising situation. The lost to Miami

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Speaker 1: and on a neutral and lost to USC in the

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Speaker 1: first game of the year, but they beat Oklahoma State

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Speaker 1: in their last game. They beat Baylor at home in overtime,

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Speaker 1: sixty eight sixty four. Look, I know, Iway State's great,

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Speaker 1: but I'm gonna expect this game. This is too many points.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the eight points here with Kansas State

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Speaker 1: and kind of fade that ten in one mark for

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Speaker 1: Iowa State and say, okay, like, who exactly have you

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Speaker 1: played at home? That makes you go like, I mean, yes, okay,

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Speaker 1: Houston is a tremendous win. Okay, but like they're gonna

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Speaker 1: kill him. Even when they beat Houston, they won by four.

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Speaker 1: I think I always say wins the game. I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying obviously it's gonna lose the game. Just think eight

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Speaker 1: points is too heavy. I know, I just talked about road.

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Speaker 1: Going on the road in college basketball is death, and like,

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Speaker 1: you can't win on the road. It's really difficult. In conference.

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Speaker 1: You go walk into a buzzsaw. But I mean, they

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Speaker 1: just beat TCU on the road seventy three seventy two

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Speaker 1: in a crazy game, like right down to the wire

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Speaker 1: game against TCU, I think they win, but they got

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Speaker 1: Kansas coming up this weekend at home. I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: that Iowa State is looking head past Kansas State, but

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Speaker 1: fans would they know KU's coming to town. Kansas State's

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Speaker 1: kind of like a let's just win the game and

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Speaker 1: move on. For that reason, I'm taking the points sorry,

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Speaker 1: Kansas State plus eight on the road at Iowa State.

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Speaker 1: All right, re bets for US two in college basketball

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Speaker 1: and one in the NBA. I'm laying the two and

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Speaker 1: a half points with Alabama. I'm taking the eight points

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Speaker 1: with Kansas State, and I'm laying under six and a half.

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Speaker 1: I am gonna go on the under for Vancouver at

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Speaker 1: home up against Saint Louis for one point two two units.

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Speaker 1: Let's keep it going, Let's have another good night. Two

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Speaker 1: and one is fine, let's win. Let's go three and

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Speaker 1: o tonight? Why not? And as Matt Pearl to follow

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Speaker 1: me across all socials at Sports Talk Matt each and

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Speaker 1: every morning the Deal Juice Podcast I was being brought

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Speaker 1: to you by OMA steaks dot com