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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel podcast. I'm Paul Swinge you.

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Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Brahma Waits, each day

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Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for

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Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or

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Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple

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Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Both the US and China appear

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Speaker 1: to be hardening their stance when it comes to trade negotiations.

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Speaker 1: To get the latest and give some insight out, we

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Speaker 1: are very pleased to say we have Professor Robert Lawrence

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Speaker 1: joining us now. He is the Albert L. Williams Professor

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Speaker 1: of Trade and Investment at the JFK School of Government

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Speaker 1: at Harvard University. Is also a Senior Fellow at the

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Speaker 1: Peterson Institute for International Economics. Professor Lawrence, thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for being with us. I want to start with you.

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Speaker 1: Just coming back from China, a trip you are on.

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Speaker 1: What's your impression of just how intractable both sides are becoming.

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Speaker 1: Is this just a trade negotiation or is this material

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Speaker 1: shift at a break in a potential deal between the

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Speaker 1: U S and China. Well, I think things are getting

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Speaker 1: much worse than they were. I think when even when

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Speaker 1: I was there just a week ago, the Chinese seemed

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Speaker 1: hopeful that some kind of a deal could be concluded.

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Speaker 1: But by the end of the trip that's a few

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Speaker 1: days ago, uh, the tone changed completely and UH and

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Speaker 1: they got much more angry about what's happened. So, Professor,

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Speaker 1: I think the last time you're on you suggested that

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Speaker 1: perhaps tariffs have been president from the goal all along.

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Speaker 1: Is that still you're thinking, well, he's yes, I still

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Speaker 1: think um he sees a great upside in tariffs. Um.

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Speaker 1: He I think has two goals. The first is to

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Speaker 1: protect the United States economy and through import barriers, and

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Speaker 1: then he also wants to discover firms who bring who

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Speaker 1: go offshore and bring their products back to the US,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's achieved by having tariffs. So I've

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Speaker 1: always been a little suspicious about these negotiations UM and

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Speaker 1: his willingness to conclude a deal, because I think ultimately

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Speaker 1: UM he said this for many years, that that that

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Speaker 1: that that was his objective. So, based on your experience

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Speaker 1: with China, with the US, with what you've been hearing

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Speaker 1: from people in Washington, d C. How much further away

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Speaker 1: from a deal areb what's the what's the likelihood of

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Speaker 1: there being some sort of deal, even cosmetic reached within

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Speaker 1: the next six months. Well, I I don't know, UM,

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Speaker 1: to be honest. Uh, it's very hard to tell. UM.

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Speaker 1: I think Washington, the people who advised President Trump and

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Speaker 1: he himself seemed quite divided in their opinions. There are

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Speaker 1: some who want China completely to change its its economic

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Speaker 1: system and it's way of supporting firms, to cut back

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Speaker 1: on the subsidies and and and change the nature of

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Speaker 1: its economic system. And I don't think China is going

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Speaker 1: to do that. If those people have that, be hand,

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Speaker 1: I don't see us getting an agreement. On the other hand,

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Speaker 1: there are others who think, you know, if we can

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Speaker 1: get something on intellectual property protection, on the transfer of technology,

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Speaker 1: you know where they're forcing our firms to transfer technology,

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Speaker 1: and an agreement to buy more of our products, that

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Speaker 1: that's the possible package that UM, the President might be

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Speaker 1: willing to accept. So so I think it's ultimately are

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Speaker 1: you are you really intent? Is the United States really

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Speaker 1: intent on getting China to change its fundamental economic system? Well?

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's going to happen and will be

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Speaker 1: in this intractable m rivalry and and friction for a

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Speaker 1: long time. If, on the other hand, it's a deal

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Speaker 1: you know of the kind of outlined that's feasible. So, Professor,

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Speaker 1: what do you again, You were just in China about

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Speaker 1: a week ago. You mentioned what do you think the

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Speaker 1: Chinese believe is a reasonable deal? Well, I think, um,

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Speaker 1: it has to do with um. Uh they they The

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Speaker 1: refrain I keep herring from the Chinese is that they're opening.

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Speaker 1: They're doing gradually, but their economy is becoming increasingly open.

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Speaker 1: So I think they're willing to take some measures on

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Speaker 1: intellectual property, uh, to to do more I mean to

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Speaker 1: to to be more restrained in in trying to force

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Speaker 1: the transfer of technology, and I say, to buy more

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Speaker 1: products from the United States. I think those are I

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Speaker 1: think those are things they're willing to do. Um. I

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Speaker 1: don't think they're willing to change there. They're big programs

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Speaker 1: in a fund of mental way, Professor. There's sort of

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Speaker 1: some speculation that's starting to percolate that China is dramatically

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Speaker 1: hardening its line and is going to see or examine

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Speaker 1: how much pain it can inflict on the US economy

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Speaker 1: in order to stymy President Trump's chances of getting elected again.

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Speaker 1: Are you hearing anything about that? It is not a

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Speaker 1: game that they're willing to play. Well. I think they

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Speaker 1: talk a tough game, but but my analysis is that

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Speaker 1: they're more adversely affected than we are, and that they're

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Speaker 1: very vulnerable. UM. China's whole economic strategy has been based

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Speaker 1: UM so far on assembling product uh you know, where

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Speaker 1: the components come in from other countries, including the United States,

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Speaker 1: and what these tariffs do is to make it very

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Speaker 1: unattractive to produce your products in in China. And so

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Speaker 1: I think this is a fundamental you know, their long

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Speaker 1: run strategy is to become leaders in in in technology,

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Speaker 1: but they're not there yet. So so I think currently

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Speaker 1: this is going to fundamentally weaken UM a lot of

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Speaker 1: the investment plans of companies in China and so so

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Speaker 1: I think they're quite vulnerable. They talk a tough game,

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Speaker 1: and they are going to try to offset some of

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Speaker 1: the negative effects that come through trade, you know, with

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Speaker 1: more expansionary physical policy and encouraging more lending to their firms. UM.

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Speaker 1: But the Chinese regards six percent as kind of an

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Speaker 1: or six point four percent actually as a kind of

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Speaker 1: an acceptable growth rate, and I think they're going to

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Speaker 1: have trouble achieving that. So, Professor, what do you think

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Speaker 1: China's next steps will be here? UM? I think, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, I'm a party to the to the details

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Speaker 1: of the negotiation. UM. I think if uh, if they

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Speaker 1: if they can't be a settlement, uh, you know between

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Speaker 1: the presidents. Um, we're in for a long period of

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Speaker 1: of of friction. I think I think they still want

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Speaker 1: to attract foreign investment, and not only American and I

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Speaker 1: so I don't see them taking more steps than what

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Speaker 1: they've already put on the table. UM. I think they're

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Speaker 1: going to play this one very cautiously because I think

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Speaker 1: they're vulnerable. Right, Robert Lawrence, I thank you so much,

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Speaker 1: Robert Lawrence. Albert L. Williams, Professor of Trade and Investment

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Speaker 1: in the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University,

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Speaker 1: also a senior fellow to Peterson Institute for International Economics.

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Speaker 1: There has been growing urgency around the plastics problem that

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Speaker 1: the globe faces. Certainly a lot of publicity around the

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Speaker 1: incredible amount of plastic trash in the oceans elsewhere. The

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Speaker 1: question is what do you do with this? And our

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Speaker 1: next guest has a really practical and potentially lucrative way

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Speaker 1: to do that. Martin Stefan, Deputy chief chief executive Officer

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Speaker 1: of Carbios. It trades on your next under the ticker

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Speaker 1: symbol a l c RB. It is based in France.

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Speaker 1: Martin joins us here though in our Bloomberger Active Broger

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Speaker 1: Studios in New York. Martin just, first, can we talk

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Speaker 1: a little bit about what your company, Carbios does. Yeah, sure,

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Speaker 1: thank you for inviting me. Uh, you know, plastic is

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Speaker 1: still fantastic, but the end of life of plastic has

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Speaker 1: not been thought enough, and Cabios has developed processes for

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Speaker 1: the end of life of plastics. And we're have in

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Speaker 1: particular process to infinitely recycled PT plastics by using a

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Speaker 1: special catall is we are able to use any kind

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Speaker 1: of pet plastic waste to make any kind of what

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Speaker 1: is p P is the plastic which is used to

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Speaker 1: make bottles, transparent food containers for example, or also fiber

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Speaker 1: stick style. It's produced public seventy million tons per yer

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Speaker 1: out of the three and than fifty million tons of

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Speaker 1: plastics which are produced every ya over the world. So

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Speaker 1: it's huge and it's big to be commodity. So what

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Speaker 1: what specifically, Well, let's go the other way. I know

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Speaker 1: a lot of the big beverage companies have been thinking

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Speaker 1: about this issue for a long time that people actually

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Speaker 1: use the packaging in their business, whether it's Coca Cola

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Speaker 1: or water companies. So I know you your company has

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Speaker 1: recently partnered with Pepsi and Nestley Water. Talk to us

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Speaker 1: about that partnership and kind of how they are thinking

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Speaker 1: about it. Yeah, Capos announced two weeks ago um a

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Speaker 1: consultium of brand owners, brand owners who had agreed to

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Speaker 1: help us to bring this technology to them to accelerate

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Speaker 1: let's at the time to market of the technology. Why

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Speaker 1: did they accept to do that because they need technologies

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Speaker 1: like ours. They need carbious technology to be able to

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Speaker 1: produce more volumes of recycled material to meet their sustainability goals,

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Speaker 1: because they have all committed to use more recycled plastics

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Speaker 1: in their packaging. But it's just that the technologies which

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Speaker 1: are today on the market cannot reach those goals. So

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Speaker 1: there's a need of new technologies to produce more recycled

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Speaker 1: plastics at higher quality. So and that's where that's where

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Speaker 1: carbios comes into play. How much more economic is it

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Speaker 1: to use curbios is technology, because that's been one drawback

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Speaker 1: to some of the others. It's expensive. Carviou technology is

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Speaker 1: not expensive. And based on our projection today we are

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Speaker 1: still at small scale, but based on projection made by

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Speaker 1: US and by engineering firm, we are convinced that the

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Speaker 1: process has the potential to juice petty plastics at the

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Speaker 1: same cost than the petro chemical process. Why. Because it's

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Speaker 1: low temperature, we use water, it's atmospheric pressure. So I

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Speaker 1: don't want to enter into too much details, but it

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Speaker 1: has the potential to to be at parity with petro

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Speaker 1: chemical process. So why we've been throwing plastic bottles and

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Speaker 1: recycling binds for years now? Um, yet the problem still

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Speaker 1: seems to be as bigger, bigger than ever. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I see this huge area of the Pacific Ocean where

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Speaker 1: there's just tons and tons of plastic. What what has

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Speaker 1: really been the hindrance for an effective recycling of plastics? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're perfectly right. Out of the three and fifty million

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Speaker 1: tons of plastics produced a year, the best estimate today

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Speaker 1: is that ten million end ups in the ocean, which

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Speaker 1: is not acceptable. What we say that we are by

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Speaker 1: giving value to waste which do they have no value

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Speaker 1: or low value, because we are able to recycle any

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Speaker 1: kind of petty ways, So we give value to wastes,

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Speaker 1: we turn the top off and they will know, they

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Speaker 1: will know there will not be any any plastic in

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Speaker 1: the ocean anymore. That's that's the solution. And one of

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Speaker 1: the problems that since those ways have a low value,

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Speaker 1: they end up in the environment, or they are landfills,

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Speaker 1: or they are incinerated. But if if as of tomorrow,

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Speaker 1: you are able to give a value to a waste

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Speaker 1: which do they has no value, it will end up

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Speaker 1: in the bin and then will be recycled. I'm just

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Speaker 1: struggling to understand how quickly we can get to that

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Speaker 1: point where we really just continually reuse plastics. And how

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Speaker 1: committed you know, you talk about Pepsi and Leslie and

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Speaker 1: how they've they've committed to your company, but how much

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Speaker 1: they're actually spending and how much are they actually doing

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Speaker 1: to experate this process. They are very committed because they

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Speaker 1: receive a lot of pressure from consumers, from governments, from NGOs,

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Speaker 1: and they want to participate to finding a solution, and

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Speaker 1: that's why they have accepted to put their reputation, their

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Speaker 1: expertise at our disposed to accelerate the time to market

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Speaker 1: of Chabios technology. And I can tell you that we

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Speaker 1: wanted in the consortium companies who really really wants to

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Speaker 1: work with us not only communicate, but we want people

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Speaker 1: to work. We want their expertise, we want their reputation

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Speaker 1: because even if we are extremely ambitious, we are only

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Speaker 1: twenty people in the middle of France, so it's difficult

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Speaker 1: to influence regulators, for example NOUS, so we need those

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Speaker 1: big guys with us. So geographically where just generally speaking

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Speaker 1: about plastic waste, geographically, where does most of the waste

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Speaker 1: come from? It comes from the where it is consumed,

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Speaker 1: so where there is population basically, so I can say

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Speaker 1: that in western countries collection is relatively well organized. Recycling

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Speaker 1: not that well, but it will improve with technologies like us.

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Speaker 1: In less developed countries, collection is less organized. And you know,

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Speaker 1: there is a scientific paper saying that the source of

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Speaker 1: pollution of plastics in the environment comes from most sleep

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Speaker 1: five rivers. And it's neither the Mississippi River nor the

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Speaker 1: Rhine RIVERA. It's the big revers in Asia and Southeast Asia.

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Speaker 1: Martin Stefan, thank you so much for joining us. Martin's

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Speaker 1: the deputy CEO of Carbios trades on the euro neext

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Speaker 1: on that the ticker symbol a l c RB based

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Speaker 1: in France, but joining us in our Bloomberg Interactive broker

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Speaker 1: studio Uber shares back on the downside. They are declining

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Speaker 1: by one and a half percent today. This comes after

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Speaker 1: Amazon announced that it was acquiring deliver rou joining us

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Speaker 1: to talk about why this might mean that it will

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Speaker 1: eat Uber for dinner as our colleagueses wrote. Is Alex Webb,

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Speaker 1: European technology columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, joining us from Zurich today. Alex,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. So why

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Speaker 1: is Amazon's purchase of Delivery is so bad for Uber

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Speaker 1: in your opinion? Well, for one, it recapitalizes one of

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Speaker 1: its bigger, biggest competitors that have been some hope both

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Speaker 1: Uber and of course it's local rival, just eat that

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Speaker 1: gradually Delivery would struggle to raise new capital and that

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Speaker 1: would give them a great hold on the market and

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Speaker 1: be able to push up their prices. This is going

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Speaker 1: to stop that. But there are broader strategic reasons why

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Speaker 1: a tie up between Amazon and Delivery, if it extends

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Speaker 1: to more than just this this venture capital investment, would

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Speaker 1: make a lot of sense. Namely that Uber, well any

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Speaker 1: delivery firm is trying its utmost to ensure that it's

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Speaker 1: deliverers are being utilized to their full capacity. Now, if

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Speaker 1: you're delivering food for delivery as well as products for

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Speaker 1: Amazon Prime, that boost that utilization rate and helps you, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, generate a lot more profit from them. So, Alex,

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Speaker 1: the food delivery business here in the US is extraordinarily competitive.

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Speaker 1: Give us a sense of kind of the competitive layout

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Speaker 1: in the UK and Europe with the big players there.

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Speaker 1: And is this investment by Amazon into delivery is that

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Speaker 1: really a game changer? M h. I think it is

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Speaker 1: a game change in a lot of ways. Particularly it

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Speaker 1: leads to those sort of synergies to which I just alluded.

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Speaker 1: But in most markets you have essentially three main players

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Speaker 1: and a couple of other ones nipping around the edges. Um,

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Speaker 1: it's it reads and delivery m In a lot of

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Speaker 1: the most significant markets, not least London. Um, there's just

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Speaker 1: Eat which is in the UK and in some of

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Speaker 1: those foreign markets, just Eats model is slightly different. Whereas

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Speaker 1: it reads and Delivery have their own network of deliverers.

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Speaker 1: What just eat does is it connects the the the

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Speaker 1: diner to the restaurant, and the restaurants it deals with

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Speaker 1: the delivery themselves. They have their own guys on a

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Speaker 1: moped or whatever it might be. Um In Germany there's

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Speaker 1: a company called Delivery Hero and in the Netherlands there's

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Speaker 1: a company called Takeaway dot Com. Between them, they own

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Speaker 1: us tracts of the business throughout the West rest of Europe.

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Speaker 1: In fact, delivery Hero sold out some of its business

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Speaker 1: in Germany, meaning the Takeaway dot Com owns something like

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Speaker 1: all of the online delivery market in Germany. So I

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Speaker 1: think there are a lot of players in that space, Alex.

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Speaker 1: I want to take a step back because one reason

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Speaker 1: why this was such a hit to Uber, at least

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Speaker 1: that was the common line today in markets, is because

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Speaker 1: this was one of the brightest spots of potential growth

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Speaker 1: for Uber. Where are these food delivery services getting their money?

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Speaker 1: Because I know that in New York City everybody expects

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Speaker 1: to get their food quickly and for free, and there

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Speaker 1: is a question of how much people are going to

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Speaker 1: eat out, especially if the economy starts to turn down.

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Speaker 1: So who's paying them, how much and how lucrative can

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Speaker 1: this business really be? That is the huge question mark,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think there is an easy answer, you know,

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Speaker 1: I get a column on this a few weeks ago

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Speaker 1: ahead of the Uber I p O UM. Ultimately, at

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Speaker 1: the moment, every single delivery, every single meal is subsidized

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Speaker 1: by ubers investors and by deliveries investors who but in

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Speaker 1: their I p O prospectives said they have subsidized on

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Speaker 1: a net basis, every single meal delivery, every single food

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Speaker 1: delivery they've ever made. UM. Ultimately, at some stage, either

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Speaker 1: they're going to have to charge UM diners more or

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Speaker 1: they're going to have to take more margin out of

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Speaker 1: the restaurants. The restaurants, if that happens, they can say, well,

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Speaker 1: in that case, we're gonna stop using these delivery networks.

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Speaker 1: The diners, in the other hand, say well, if I'm

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Speaker 1: having to pay over the odds of the meal, I'm

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Speaker 1: just going to go and collect it or cook myself.

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Speaker 1: The one possible solution out there is what they call

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Speaker 1: dark kitchens. That's where you have UM what is often

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Speaker 1: a shipping container with a kitchen in it that's not

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Speaker 1: attached to a physical restaurant, even though it may carry

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Speaker 1: the branding of a restaurant that does exist. UM. The

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Speaker 1: risk for a restaurant of that is you're giving all

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Speaker 1: of the control of that process over to UM, uberies delivery,

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Speaker 1: whoever it might be. But it's a way of keeping

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Speaker 1: your costs down and therefore it would be aware. You know.

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Speaker 1: Therefore you can charge more to the you can generate

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Speaker 1: more margin which you can split between the restaurant and

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Speaker 1: the you know, the delivery market place. Now that model

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Speaker 1: remains untested, but there are a lot of people backing it. Well,

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Speaker 1: this sounds increasingly can't complex for these delivery companies to

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Speaker 1: try to figure out that economic model that works. What

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Speaker 1: do you think uber eats will do in response, Alex,

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Speaker 1: I mean, as ever, when whenever there's a new competitor

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Speaker 1: they tend in, whether it's in food delivery or in

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Speaker 1: right hailing, they double down with the subsidies. They fight

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Speaker 1: to get more, to get more UM business, to win

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Speaker 1: more market share. That to me is absolutely not sustainable.

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Speaker 1: As I'm sure anyone out there he uses right hailing services.

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Speaker 1: You open your phone, you compare the prices you go

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Speaker 1: which with whichever one is cheapest. Brand loyalty is something

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Speaker 1: that's hard to achieve here. Um. I think the thing

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Speaker 1: that is so compelling about a possible Amazon delivery tie

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Speaker 1: up is it creates a more sustainable business case, and

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Speaker 1: that is what Uber is going to be butting up

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Speaker 1: against until it can come up with its own last

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Speaker 1: mile delivery service for more than food. Um. I think

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Speaker 1: that that's going to be a real challenge alex Web,

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much, great stuff Alex's European technology columns

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Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Opinion, joining us from Zurich today, and it

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Speaker 1: just kind of goes to the issue I think Alex

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Speaker 1: raised is not just about the food delivery, but also

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Speaker 1: just about the ride hailing. It's just the subsidies you have,

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Speaker 1: and when do you bleed people off the subsidies. Well,

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Speaker 1: rising terroriffs and the apparent collapse of US China trade

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Speaker 1: talks have injected a new level of alatility into financial markets.

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Speaker 1: To get a sense of how the commodity markets are reacting,

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Speaker 1: returned to Will rind Will as a founder and CEO

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Speaker 1: of Grantite Shares based in New York City via Aberdeen Scotland,

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Speaker 1: of all places. We welcome Will to the studio. Well,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Let's start with gold here, Um,

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Speaker 1: what is your sense of just looking at gold here?

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Speaker 1: It's a you know, twelve seventies six dollars and ounce?

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Speaker 1: What is your view of gold given all of the

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Speaker 1: uncertainty in the macro geopolitical environment we're dealing with. Great question,

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Speaker 1: and thank you, it's good to be here again. UM.

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Speaker 1: I think if which comes to gold, you know, one

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Speaker 1: of the key things that I think investors need to

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Speaker 1: be aware of is the strength of the dollar. And

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Speaker 1: so you know, when you have trade talks such as

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Speaker 1: US China apparently collapsing or at least breaking down and

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Speaker 1: not being as certain as people thought a few weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: that kind of manifests itself in terms of a stronger dollar.

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Speaker 1: And a stronger dollar is negative typically for gold, at

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Speaker 1: least in the short term. I think the positive thing

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Speaker 1: for for gold is that market volatility more broadly UM

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Speaker 1: is typically positive for gold. And if there are expectations

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Speaker 1: on the back of trade talks collapsing that we're going

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Speaker 1: to have slower global growth UM negative real or lower

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Speaker 1: real interest rates positive for gold. And I think with

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Speaker 1: people talking about the FED potentially cutting um, that is

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Speaker 1: positive for gold. Although if we look at gold prices

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Speaker 1: the year, they've slumped, which is surprising given the fact,

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Speaker 1: well it's not surprising for the first couple of months

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Speaker 1: because there was that rally, but recently the slump has

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Speaker 1: continued and prices have continued to go down, even though

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Speaker 1: the dollar hasn't rallied that much. Like, yes, it has rallied,

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Speaker 1: but the uncertainty in some sectors has outweighed that. So

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Speaker 1: why isn't there more of a bid for gold? It's

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Speaker 1: a great question, and you know this always comes up,

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Speaker 1: And I think if you go back to the end

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Speaker 1: of last year when you had the huge market sell off,

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Speaker 1: and of course gold did catch a bid pretty significant

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Speaker 1: bid um in the end of last year. In the

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Speaker 1: beginning of this year, we had the FED news at

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Speaker 1: the end of January which was signaling a change in

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Speaker 1: policy direction in terms of interest rate rises for the year,

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Speaker 1: which also positive. But then on the back of that

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Speaker 1: you had a big comebacks, big V shaped recovering the

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Speaker 1: equity market and a big rallying risk on assets which

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Speaker 1: did affect gold negatively. Um The trade talks, and indeed,

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Speaker 1: the kind of breakdown in trade talks at the moment

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Speaker 1: is negative in the sense that it's manifesting itself in

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Speaker 1: a more strong or stronger dollar. But I do think

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Speaker 1: that the late cycle UM sort of trade right now

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Speaker 1: is is still positive for gold, and we've seen at

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Speaker 1: least investors positioning themselves that way being more defensive, and

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Speaker 1: more defensive typically means an allocation to gold one of

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Speaker 1: the commodities that I know familiar with that's certainly benefited.

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Speaker 1: You know, really since December is oil. I'm looking at

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Speaker 1: w T I up, you know, almost off of it

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Speaker 1: December low. Obviously there's a lot of geopolitical issues there,

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Speaker 1: whether it's Iran in other areas. What is your view

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Speaker 1: of oil at the moment um? Yes, so it was

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Speaker 1: it was very positive UM and you know, there was

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Speaker 1: a big overshoot on the downside and oil coming into

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Speaker 1: the end of last year, and that was sort of

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Speaker 1: against the backdrop where we'd seen UM supply being reduced.

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Speaker 1: Everybody knows about what's going on in Venezuela, UM in

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Speaker 1: terms of the really going offline in terms of oil

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Speaker 1: production and the effect that's out of the market, But

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Speaker 1: with the Iranians anctions that also took oil off the market,

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Speaker 1: and the Saudis looking to avoid mistakes that they made

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Speaker 1: in the past by over supplying the market when others

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Speaker 1: were cutting supply. So all of that led into a

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Speaker 1: tighter supply environment and when um, the market went sort

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Speaker 1: of risk on mode. UM, that involved in a lot

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Speaker 1: of a lot of demand and push prices up to

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Speaker 1: levels that we've seen. Have you ever been this confused

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Speaker 1: about the oil market before? Because I've got to say,

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Speaker 1: I talked to people and some people say, well, you know,

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Speaker 1: if this happens, and this happens, prices will shoot higher.

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Speaker 1: And other people say prices are capped and then they're

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Speaker 1: poised to shoot much lower. And there's really it's everything

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Speaker 1: across the board. So what's your view. Well, I think

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Speaker 1: that there's some of that which is true. Um. And

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Speaker 1: you know, you get a negative tweet about the oil

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Speaker 1: market from the presidents as a send prices lower. That's

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Speaker 1: not baked in any kind of fundamentals. Um, that's pure sentiment.

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Speaker 1: You get real geopolitical concerns that affects supply, which is

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Speaker 1: a real thing. Isn't that what we're seeing right now?

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's not concern. I think it absolutely is.

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Speaker 1: And you know, with what's going on, particularly with situation

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Speaker 1: seemed to be escalating between Iran and roxyes In in

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Speaker 1: the Middle East, that almost certainly could affect oil supply,

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Speaker 1: which would be a positive for the market. It's interesting

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Speaker 1: we had earlier today Amy Meyers Jaffee from the Council

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Speaker 1: Foreign Relations on and she made a very bullish case

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Speaker 1: for oil, uh, you know, assuming we had an Iran problem,

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Speaker 1: an Iran disruption. Her contention is OPEC can't really fill

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Speaker 1: the void. Russia can't fill the void. It doesn't we

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Speaker 1: don't we know that Venezuela can't fill the void. And

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Speaker 1: she was making a very bullish call that the market

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Speaker 1: is not properly discounting that the market, that the rest

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Speaker 1: of the non Iran market can compensate for RAN's that's

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Speaker 1: something you think is reasonable. Um, I think that's true.

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Speaker 1: The only caveat I would add to that is just

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Speaker 1: that we've sort of seen this before and typically that

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Speaker 1: would manifest itself of most likely in a short term spike.

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Speaker 1: But the global economy is weakening and and this is

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Speaker 1: this is kind of the dichotomy that we face the

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Speaker 1: old market. The short term, you know, spike could very

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Speaker 1: well happen, but it's hard to see in my mind

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Speaker 1: at least how oil can get to the levels that

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Speaker 1: we saw certainly back in two thousand seven, or any

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Speaker 1: kind of shock type levels, because it really leads to

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Speaker 1: demand destruction, and so in in in a market or

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Speaker 1: a global economy where you know things are slowing down,

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Speaker 1: it's hard to see prices remaining at a really elevated

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Speaker 1: level because in my mind, would lead to demand destruction.

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Speaker 1: So right now w T I ON and I AMAX

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Speaker 1: traded at sixty three dollars intense cents of barrel. What

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Speaker 1: sort of the ceiling in your view and what's the floor? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think certainly if you look at the last kind

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Speaker 1: of a couple of years, it's been around eighty dollars

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Speaker 1: in terms of the ceiling, and so whenever we've got

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Speaker 1: to that level or thereabouts, we've had a reaction and

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Speaker 1: prices of pulled back. I think on the on side,

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Speaker 1: although we've seen some pretty low prices, I think that

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Speaker 1: sort of forty five dollars on the downside is also

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Speaker 1: where the market's met resistance. So on the upside um

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Speaker 1: there's been that sort of resistance around the eighty dollar level,

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Speaker 1: but on the downside as well, probably somewhere in the

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Speaker 1: in the forties. I know you run a couple of

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Speaker 1: e t fs focused on the commodity sector, which is

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Speaker 1: the most popular right now, give you thirty seconds. Oh

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Speaker 1: it's bar b a R which is our gold et F.

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Speaker 1: So it just holds physical goal tracks the gold price. UM.

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Speaker 1: We just actually went over five hundred million in assets

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Speaker 1: UM and assets have They haven't doubled this year, but

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Speaker 1: have increased by probably well ever a third. And that's

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Speaker 1: really on the back of people positioning for this late

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Speaker 1: cycle trade, so being more defensive, adding gold to the portfolio,

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Speaker 1: people looking for non or uncorrelated asset classes. So since

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the year, we've seen a big uptick

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Speaker 1: uptick in golden trust. Well, Ryan, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for being with here. Will Ryand is founder and chief

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Speaker 1: executive officer of Grantit Shares based in New York. Thanks

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00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You

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00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 1: can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or

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00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,679
Speaker 1: whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter,

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00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 1: at PT Sweeney, I'm Lisa Abram Woyds. I'm on Twitter

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00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: at Lisa Abram Woits one Before the podcast, you can

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Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio