WEBVTT - Musk on the Moon

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<v Speaker 1>Elon Musk recently announced that SpaceX is shifting its focus

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<v Speaker 1>away from a self sustaining city on Mars and will

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<v Speaker 1>instead build a self growing city on the Moon. Musk

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<v Speaker 1>explains that building on the Moon makes sense because you

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<v Speaker 1>can launch a rocket to leave for the Moon every

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<v Speaker 1>ten days and it only takes two days to get there.

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<v Speaker 1>But for Mars, because you have to wait for the

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<v Speaker 1>planets to align nicely, you can only leave for a

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<v Speaker 1>trip every twenty six months and it takes six months

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<v Speaker 1>to get there. So he argues, you can go to

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<v Speaker 1>the Moon more often and more quickly, so it makes

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<v Speaker 1>more sense to start there, But orbital mechanics hasn't like

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<v Speaker 1>recently changed. These facts that Musk is stating have been

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<v Speaker 1>true for the history of SpaceX, and of course for

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<v Speaker 1>much longer than that, so why the change in heart

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<v Speaker 1>and fickle human hearts? Aside, how feasible are these plants,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll chat about how difficult it will be to create

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<v Speaker 1>a self growing or a self sustaining city on the

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<v Speaker 1>Moon or Mars, and we'll chat about Musk's plans to

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<v Speaker 1>build AI satellites on the Moon and launch them into

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<v Speaker 1>deep space using a mass driver. Welcome to Daniel and

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<v Speaker 1>Kelly's Extraordinary Universe.

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<v Speaker 2>Hi. I'm Daniel. I'm a particle physicist, and I want

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<v Speaker 2>humanity doccupy the stars, but I want to stay here

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<v Speaker 2>on Earth.

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<v Speaker 1>Hello. I'm Kelly Wainer Smith. I study parasites and space,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm also cool with humanity occupying the stars as

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<v Speaker 1>long as we do it like ethically and carefully. But

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<v Speaker 1>I am also staying down here on Earth with the

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<v Speaker 1>goats and the moths and my kids and my husband.

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<v Speaker 2>All Right, Well, if neither of us are going to

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<v Speaker 2>Mars or the Moon or the Belt, then my question

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<v Speaker 2>for you today, Kelly, is what is the most dangerous

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<v Speaker 2>or uncomfortable place you'd be willing to visit.

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<v Speaker 1>I'd be willing to visit.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, you're not taking a ride to the moon.

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<v Speaker 2>Would you take a trip to the bottom of the

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<v Speaker 2>ocean or to Antarctica?

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<v Speaker 1>I would maybe go to Antarctica. It would be it's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of like beautiful there. I could maybe be convinced.

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<v Speaker 1>I would like to visit a desert. The desert has

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<v Speaker 1>a sort of beauty all its own, especially if I

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<v Speaker 1>could ride a camel. That'd be fun.

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<v Speaker 2>Visit the desert. There is the desert such an exotic

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<v Speaker 2>place for you. I mean I live in the desert.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh well, I mean I like a real desert.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh you're looking down your nose at the southwest. Huh.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean you turn a tap and you've got water,

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<v Speaker 1>And so I mean like a desert where like everywhere

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<v Speaker 1>you look their sand dunes, like in the middle of

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<v Speaker 1>the desert.

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<v Speaker 2>You know you heard it here first, folks, Death Valley

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't qualify as a desert. According to Kelly Winersmith.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Well what about you?

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<v Speaker 1>What's your answer?

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<v Speaker 2>Having just experienced international business class for the first time,

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<v Speaker 2>I think the answer is nowhere. Like, I really just

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<v Speaker 2>don't want to go anywhere uncomfortable. It's just not fun. Yeah. No,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm going to be a total whimp about it.

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like I have to stay alive for my kids.

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<v Speaker 1>Otherwise my answer could be a bit more exotic. But uh, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I got to stay alive from my kids right now.

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<v Speaker 2>Like, I even have plausible scientific reasons to go to Antarctica,

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<v Speaker 2>and I know a guy who goes quite often. I

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<v Speaker 2>could probably go if I wanted to, But yeah, just

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<v Speaker 2>no interest in going to Antarctica. It seems miserable.

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<v Speaker 1>I have friends who go to Antarctica and they're like,

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<v Speaker 1>you have no desire to go, And I'm like, oh, no, no, no,

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<v Speaker 1>no, no no. I have friends who jumped in the water

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<v Speaker 1>in Antarctica. Scott and Joe, you two are nuts. Nuts.

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<v Speaker 2>Wow.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry.

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<v Speaker 2>Wow. Well, speaking of nuts, today, we're talking about to

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<v Speaker 2>settle the Moon. And if you didn't already pick up

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<v Speaker 2>on it, And if this is your first episode of

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<v Speaker 2>this podcast and you have no idea how Kelly feels

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<v Speaker 2>about settling space, then you might have gotten a hint

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<v Speaker 2>about where this is going.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, that's right. We are talking today about Elon Musk's

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<v Speaker 1>about face. He has for a long time been talking

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<v Speaker 1>about settling Mars. You can see him wearing his Occupy

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<v Speaker 1>Mars shirts all the time. He's well known for saying

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<v Speaker 1>that he wants to have a self sustaining settlement on

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<v Speaker 1>Mars with a million people in the next twenty to

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<v Speaker 1>thirty years.

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<v Speaker 2>What's his most outrageous prediction for when he's going to

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<v Speaker 2>start sending people to Mars? That like didn't come true?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think not that long ago he was

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<v Speaker 1>predicting that he was going to try to get like

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<v Speaker 1>some people heading Mars word in like I think I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're in a launch window in twenty twenty six,

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, like sometime in the next couple of years,

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<v Speaker 1>Starship would be bringing people Mars word. But I don't

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<v Speaker 1>pay too much attention, you know, Like Musk is well

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<v Speaker 1>known for saying that SpaceX turns impossible into late.

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<v Speaker 2>That's catchy, that's good.

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<v Speaker 1>I like that is good. And SpaceX has done absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>amazing things. Like Zach and I were very frustrated when

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<v Speaker 1>we were writing Soonest, which was a book about emerging technologies,

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<v Speaker 1>and we had this chapter about lowering the cost of

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<v Speaker 1>sending masks to space and SpaceX just kept doing one

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely amazing thing after another, and we kept having to

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<v Speaker 1>update that chapter because we were like, holy cow, they're

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<v Speaker 1>like revolutionizing space launch. As we're writing this chapter.

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<v Speaker 2>They're catching rockets with chopsticks.

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<v Speaker 1>You no, No, it is absolutely amazing. And so I

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<v Speaker 1>every once in a while I'll talk to someone who

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<v Speaker 1>will be like, oh, Musk and SpaceX haven't done anything amazing.

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<v Speaker 1>There have been reusable rockets before, and to me, this

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<v Speaker 1>like borders on conspiracy theory. Ye, Like, yeah, clearly this

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<v Speaker 1>has been revolutionary. You can argue about whether or not

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<v Speaker 1>you're excited about their being more satellite in space, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>But anyway, I think it's been very impressive.

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<v Speaker 2>No, it's important to be clear eyed and to be

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<v Speaker 2>fair about it, and you give credit where credit is due.

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<v Speaker 2>Otherwise you have no credibility. You're just out there to

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<v Speaker 2>bash on a rich nerd. Yeah, but do you have

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<v Speaker 2>any insight into why Mars was the target? I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>Mars has always been further and harder. Why did he

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<v Speaker 2>focus on Mars?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So my sense is that Musk has always been

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<v Speaker 1>into science fiction and he's always been sort of excited

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<v Speaker 1>about big space goals. After he got his money from

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<v Speaker 1>what's now called PayPal, he was excited about Mars. Even then.

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<v Speaker 1>He wanted to send something like a little like greenhouse

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<v Speaker 1>to Mars and then take a video of like a

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<v Speaker 1>plant growing on the Martian surface, and he thought that

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<v Speaker 1>would be really inspirational for people to see a plant

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<v Speaker 1>growing on Mars and like, yes, absolutely, yeah, And so

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<v Speaker 1>my guess is that why he's excited about Mars is

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<v Speaker 1>because Mars actually is one of the best play in

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<v Speaker 1>the Solar System to have a self sustaining settlement for

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<v Speaker 1>humans if you were gonna do it anywhere.

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<v Speaker 2>We hold on that's like it is one of the

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<v Speaker 2>best in the sense that there's only one good one,

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<v Speaker 2>and Mars is like, you know, a distance second. It's

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<v Speaker 2>like saying eating garbage is some of the best food

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<v Speaker 2>you can eat. It was like, yeah, but there there's

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<v Speaker 2>a better option just right here.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, yes, we're so everything else in space sucks so

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<v Speaker 1>much worse than Mars. I mean, like, so Earth is

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<v Speaker 1>perfect and then Mars is then like least bad.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, next, right, and we think garbage is better than

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<v Speaker 2>eating sewage, and and that's basically the argument. All right,

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<v Speaker 2>So tell us about their recent news about Musk pivoting.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so there's there's been this recent surprising pivot where

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<v Speaker 1>where now Musk is saying that they're going to have

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<v Speaker 1>a self growing or self sustaining depends on what you know,

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<v Speaker 1>whether you're talking about a tweet or a speech he

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<v Speaker 1>gave recently. And the tweet he said self growing, but

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<v Speaker 1>in a speech I listened to, he's and self sustaining

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<v Speaker 1>city on the Moon in you know, maybe even less

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<v Speaker 1>than ten years. And when you ask him why, he

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<v Speaker 1>says that it's because you can get to the Moon faster.

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<v Speaker 1>So the Moon you can leave every ten days a

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<v Speaker 1>window opens, whereas you can only leave to get to

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<v Speaker 1>Mars once every something like twenty six months, because you

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<v Speaker 1>have to wait until Mars and Earth are like aligned

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<v Speaker 1>in a nice way where you can like make that

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<v Speaker 1>journey the shortest.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's because the Earth and Mars don't orbit the

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<v Speaker 2>Sun in a coordinated way, so sometimes they're like on

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<v Speaker 2>opposite sides of the Sun. It makes no sense to

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<v Speaker 2>try to get to Mars. And sometimes they're lined up

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<v Speaker 2>like one car passing the other one or on a race.

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<v Speaker 1>Truck exactly right. And the Moon is nice enough to

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<v Speaker 1>always be about the same distance away from us at

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<v Speaker 1>all times.

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<v Speaker 2>The Sun never comes between the Earth and the Moon.

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<v Speaker 2>That's amazing.

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<v Speaker 1>I know, it's very convenient. It's very convenient.

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<v Speaker 2>That would be very cool to see though, But yeah, celestially,

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<v Speaker 2>that just never, that's right.

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<v Speaker 1>That's right. And when that window does open up and

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<v Speaker 1>you leave for the Moon, it takes you like about

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<v Speaker 1>two days maybe a little more to get there, whereas

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<v Speaker 1>if you leave for Mars, it takes you between six

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<v Speaker 1>to nine months to get there. Yeah, And so you

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<v Speaker 1>can leave for the Moon a lot more often, and

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<v Speaker 1>you get there a lot quicker.

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<v Speaker 2>But clarify for us the distinction you made between self

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<v Speaker 2>sustaining and self growing. It's one of them like a plant,

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<v Speaker 2>and the other one's what's a distinction?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I've been trying to figure that out as well.

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<v Speaker 1>So self sustaining is the word that he tends to

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<v Speaker 1>use for Mars, and what he means by that is,

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<v Speaker 1>if something catastrophic happens to Earth, Mars would be fine

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<v Speaker 1>on its own. Makes sense, and I, you know, so

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<v Speaker 1>I wrote this book called A City on Mars where

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<v Speaker 1>I sort of critique his timeline for how long it

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<v Speaker 1>would take to get to self sustaining. I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>you could do that in twenty to thirty years. But

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<v Speaker 1>he first started using this word self growing on the Moon,

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<v Speaker 1>And when we start talking about the Moon in a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit later in the show, I want to dig

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<v Speaker 1>into why I think he may have used self growing

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<v Speaker 1>initially instead of self sustaining, because the Moon lacks a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of things that I think that you would need

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<v Speaker 1>to have a self sustaining society, because it turns out

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<v Speaker 1>the Moon is a really bad place to live and

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<v Speaker 1>it's lacking stuff like carbon. It's got some carbon, but

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<v Speaker 1>not a lot, and we're carbon based like organisms, and

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<v Speaker 1>so like even just the basic building blocks that you

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<v Speaker 1>need to make humans, we're gonna have to bring with

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<v Speaker 1>us to the Moon. And so I'm guessing that's why

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<v Speaker 1>he used self growing initially. Yeah, I don't know. Maybe

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<v Speaker 1>you could grow businesses there, but self sustaining would take

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of work. What's interesting to me is that

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<v Speaker 1>Musk is saying, like, oh, we can get to the

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<v Speaker 1>moon faster, and that's why we got to start there.

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<v Speaker 1>But this has always been true.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not like the moon was recently moved to get

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<v Speaker 2>easier to.

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<v Speaker 1>Get to right right, And I don't think that Musk

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<v Speaker 1>like woke up ten days ago. We're recording this in

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<v Speaker 1>like mid Febuerbruary, and he, you know, he said this

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<v Speaker 1>in like early ish February. I don't think that Musk

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<v Speaker 1>woke up like ten days ago and was like, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>wait a minute, the moon is closer, and like I

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<v Speaker 1>don't and so like why the shift? And so there's

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<v Speaker 1>loads of people who are speculating on the cause of

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<v Speaker 1>the shift. I don't think we should speculate a ton

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<v Speaker 1>I don't want to spend a lot of you know,

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<v Speaker 1>breath on guessing. But many people have noted that Blue

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<v Speaker 1>Origin is finally starting to catch up to SpaceX after

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<v Speaker 1>being behind for a long time. Blue Origin is now

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<v Speaker 1>starting to talk about doing more activity on the Moon

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<v Speaker 1>and having like a lunar lander. And this is at

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<v Speaker 1>a time when there's rumors that SpaceX is going to

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<v Speaker 1>want to start doing their initial public offering, so becoming

0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:52.200
<v Speaker 1>a public company. And so maybe Musk is looking for

0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:55.480
<v Speaker 1>some way to do something impactful in the near term,

0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:58.800
<v Speaker 1>and maybe the Moon is looking like something that that

0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:01.920
<v Speaker 1>he can do something exciting sooner than he can do

0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:04.760
<v Speaker 1>something exciting related to Mars. I don't know, what do

0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:05.120
<v Speaker 1>you think.

0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:11.360
<v Speaker 2>I think the probably unfair and least charitable interpretation is

0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:13.959
<v Speaker 2>that after the movie The Martian, he knew everybody was

0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:16.959
<v Speaker 2>excited about Mars, and so he rode that wave and

0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:20.320
<v Speaker 2>now everybody's thinking about the Moon, and he's got a

0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:22.840
<v Speaker 2>public offering coming up, and he's got to pump that stock.

0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:28.240
<v Speaker 2>And that's probably unfair, but that's like the least charitable interpretation.

0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:30.640
<v Speaker 2>But as you said, we can't get into his head,

0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:34.319
<v Speaker 2>so instead, let's just think about the science first tell

0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:38.559
<v Speaker 2>us how feasible was the plan to go to Mars anyway?

0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:43.440
<v Speaker 1>Not super feasible or you know, so maybe he would

0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:45.040
<v Speaker 1>have been able to get starship there. So I'm not

0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:47.480
<v Speaker 1>going to dig too much into the rocket plan. But

0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:50.559
<v Speaker 1>what really got me frustrated was this plan that we're

0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:53.280
<v Speaker 1>going to have a self sustaining settlement in twenty to

0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:56.200
<v Speaker 1>thirty years, which implied that you were going to have

0:12:56.720 --> 0:13:01.520
<v Speaker 1>a million human bodies on Mars way before we knew

0:13:01.520 --> 0:13:02.520
<v Speaker 1>if that was safe or not.

0:13:02.960 --> 0:13:05.440
<v Speaker 2>Why do you need a million for self sustaining Why

0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:06.280
<v Speaker 2>is that a requirement?

0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:08.719
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so a million is the number that Musk came

0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:10.960
<v Speaker 1>up with, not me. Oh, I guess you thought that

0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:12.440
<v Speaker 1>a million was the number that you would need to

0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:15.000
<v Speaker 1>have enough people to do all of the jobs that

0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:18.319
<v Speaker 1>would be necessary to have a self sustaining like economy,

0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:22.360
<v Speaker 1>and enough people to have enough genetic diversity. I would

0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:24.960
<v Speaker 1>note that when we were doing research, we felt like

0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:27.600
<v Speaker 1>a million was an underestimate for all of the different

0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:29.480
<v Speaker 1>kinds of jobs you would need if you were going

0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:31.920
<v Speaker 1>to have the kind of economy that would also be

0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:35.000
<v Speaker 1>making things like computer chips, which you would need to

0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:38.800
<v Speaker 1>keep a complicated habitat that runs on technology on an

0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:40.360
<v Speaker 1>alien planet running This is a.

0:13:40.360 --> 0:13:43.240
<v Speaker 2>Really fascinating thing to think about, because the number of

0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:47.079
<v Speaker 2>people involved in like your daily life is huge. You know,

0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:49.520
<v Speaker 2>the number of people who like make pencils and like

0:13:49.720 --> 0:13:52.599
<v Speaker 2>make toilet paper and transport all that stuff. Like, the

0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:55.320
<v Speaker 2>number of people who touch your life is enormous. But

0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:58.199
<v Speaker 2>we've sort of build our society that way. We've assumed

0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:01.600
<v Speaker 2>that everybody's here and then we can transport stuff. If

0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:05.679
<v Speaker 2>you intentionally built a society that had like fewer choices

0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:08.360
<v Speaker 2>of pencils and only one kind of toilet paper because

0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:11.400
<v Speaker 2>you wanted to simplify it, you're saying even then you

0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:13.839
<v Speaker 2>couldn't winnow it down to less than about a million people.

0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:16.439
<v Speaker 1>Maybe, but like I guess you'd have you could say,

0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:19.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, we want fewer medical specialists and stuff like that.

0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:22.400
<v Speaker 1>But you know, on Earth you can make some winnowing

0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:25.880
<v Speaker 1>because you can like walk outside and take a deep

0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:28.239
<v Speaker 1>breath and you don't have someone who needs to manufacture

0:14:28.280 --> 0:14:32.520
<v Speaker 1>the air, for example. But there are some you know,

0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:35.400
<v Speaker 1>additional things that you absolutely have to have in an

0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:39.360
<v Speaker 1>environment where technology is required to keep you from dying,

0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:43.040
<v Speaker 1>where like you need a spacesuit in order to walk outside,

0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:45.200
<v Speaker 1>because otherwise the nitrogen is going to boil out of

0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:46.480
<v Speaker 1>your blood and kill you.

0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:49.480
<v Speaker 2>So you need, for example, somebody who can fix a spacesuit,

0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:52.280
<v Speaker 2>and somebody to manufacture their pair patches for the space

0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:54.960
<v Speaker 2>suits and all that stuff. All right, somebody, let's start

0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:57.480
<v Speaker 2>with the pros, right, what are the advantages of going

0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:59.400
<v Speaker 2>to Mars. Let's steal man this case?

0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:01.720
<v Speaker 1>Right, Yeah, okay, So you wanted to know why it

0:15:01.840 --> 0:15:05.080
<v Speaker 1>is Musk excited about Mars, and it's because Mars actually

0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:07.800
<v Speaker 1>has a lot of pros if you exclude the Earth.

0:15:08.720 --> 0:15:11.920
<v Speaker 1>So Mars has plenty of water. It's got lots of

0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:13.440
<v Speaker 1>water at the poles. It even has a lot of

0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:15.400
<v Speaker 1>water at the equator if you're willing to dig down

0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:15.920
<v Speaker 1>a little bit.

0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:17.040
<v Speaker 2>And this is cool science.

0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:17.240
<v Speaker 1>Right.

0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:19.440
<v Speaker 2>We didn't know that Mars had water on it until

0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:20.840
<v Speaker 2>pretty recently. That's exciting.

0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:23.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we thought Mars had loads of water and

0:15:23.680 --> 0:15:26.520
<v Speaker 1>that there were canals shuttling the water around for a while.

0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:31.840
<v Speaker 1>But but yes, once we dispelled ourselves of that illusion, Yes,

0:15:31.880 --> 0:15:34.080
<v Speaker 1>we did recently learn that Mars had plenty of water.

0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:37.600
<v Speaker 1>Mars has some atmosphere, and it has a lot of

0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:40.640
<v Speaker 1>carbon dioxide, and that you know, kind of sounds like

0:15:40.920 --> 0:15:44.440
<v Speaker 1>a bummer as an organism that doesn't love breathing carbon dioxide.

0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:47.120
<v Speaker 1>But plants like to breathe carbon dioxide. That's good news

0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:47.840
<v Speaker 1>for our plants.

0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:49.240
<v Speaker 2>And I like to eat plants.

0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:51.160
<v Speaker 1>And I like to eat plants too, and you can,

0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:53.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, break it up. And there's oxygen in there,

0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:56.160
<v Speaker 1>which is a gas that we do like to breathe.

0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.960
<v Speaker 1>There's also lots of there's lots of oxygen, hydrogen, carbon,

0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:04.000
<v Speaker 1>and nitrogen on Mars. Those are all good things that

0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:05.680
<v Speaker 1>we can use for you know, for us and for

0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:10.560
<v Speaker 1>our plants. The climate is okay relative to other places

0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:15.480
<v Speaker 1>in space. So the equator at summertime is about twenty

0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:18.560
<v Speaker 1>one degrees celsius, which is about room temperature. Okay, so

0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:21.200
<v Speaker 1>you know that's okay, we can work with it.

0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:22.760
<v Speaker 2>Still not sunbathing though.

0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:25.400
<v Speaker 1>No, no, you're not sunbathing. And you know that one

0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:28.080
<v Speaker 1>percent of Earth's atmosphere that we talked about, like that's

0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:31.560
<v Speaker 1>still thin enough that you can't step outside without a spacesuit.

0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:34.080
<v Speaker 1>As we talked about, you you would die. And it's

0:16:34.120 --> 0:16:36.640
<v Speaker 1>got a day that's kind of earth like. So about

0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:40.200
<v Speaker 1>twenty four point seven hours, So that's kind of nice.

0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:42.880
<v Speaker 2>And it's got a red sky with blue sunsets. That's

0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:43.480
<v Speaker 2>pretty cool.

0:16:43.840 --> 0:16:48.440
<v Speaker 1>That's pretty cool. Yeah. Yeah, so it's got some some pros.

0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:50.360
<v Speaker 2>All right, we're doing our best here to make the

0:16:50.400 --> 0:16:51.120
<v Speaker 2>positive case.

0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:54.360
<v Speaker 1>That's right, that's right, but it also has some cons.

0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:55.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:57.080
<v Speaker 1>So we've already talked about the fact that it's really

0:16:57.120 --> 0:17:01.240
<v Speaker 1>far away. It also has only forty percent of Earth's gravity,

0:17:01.360 --> 0:17:03.880
<v Speaker 1>and we don't know how big of a problem that's

0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:08.040
<v Speaker 1>going to be for human muscles and bones. There's some

0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:11.080
<v Speaker 1>reason to worry that that might not be enough for,

0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:14.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, to keep for example, moms muscles and bones

0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:17.399
<v Speaker 1>strong enough to get her through labor, and that might

0:17:17.440 --> 0:17:19.720
<v Speaker 1>not be enough for a fetus to develop normally. We

0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:23.119
<v Speaker 1>just really don't have enough data to answer questions like that.

0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:25.919
<v Speaker 2>And what about childhood, right like, what happens to a

0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:29.200
<v Speaker 2>child who grows up in low gravity? Did their bones

0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:32.399
<v Speaker 2>develop weirdly? Do they get cancer? Does something else happen?

0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:35.400
<v Speaker 1>Yeah? Right, And we've talked about this in past episodes,

0:17:35.440 --> 0:17:37.280
<v Speaker 1>so I'm not going to be labor it too much.

0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:39.760
<v Speaker 1>Folks can go back through our archive to find those episodes.

0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:42.400
<v Speaker 1>But you know, in my mind, we need to do

0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:45.920
<v Speaker 1>a lot of additional research before we send a million

0:17:45.960 --> 0:17:49.400
<v Speaker 1>people to Mars to figure out the answers to those questions, which,

0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:51.000
<v Speaker 1>to be honest, is one of the reasons why I'm

0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:53.400
<v Speaker 1>sort of excited about this pivot to the moon. We

0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:56.240
<v Speaker 1>could use it as an opportunity to get those data

0:17:56.800 --> 0:18:00.000
<v Speaker 1>before we start sending people to Mars to do repert

0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:02.480
<v Speaker 1>and stuff. We you know, we could like slow down

0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:05.400
<v Speaker 1>and make this transition a little bit more ethically in.

0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:09.280
<v Speaker 2>What scenario is raising children in low gravity to see

0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:12.240
<v Speaker 2>what happens ethical? Like, how do you figure that out?

0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:16.400
<v Speaker 1>So? Okay, So if you slowed down and you decided,

0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:20.359
<v Speaker 1>in addition to the AI satellites that Musk wants to

0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:21.800
<v Speaker 1>be making, which we're going to talk about a little

0:18:21.800 --> 0:18:25.359
<v Speaker 1>bit later, you also tacked on a biological research station.

0:18:25.920 --> 0:18:30.040
<v Speaker 1>You could start with a colony of rodents, and you know,

0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:32.800
<v Speaker 1>maybe you give those rodents a decade, and if the

0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:37.040
<v Speaker 1>rodents all seem super healthy, maybe then you could let

0:18:37.080 --> 0:18:39.359
<v Speaker 1>people bring their dogs, and maybe you could let some

0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:42.520
<v Speaker 1>of those dogs have puppies, and if they seemed fine,

0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:48.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, maybe you could very carefully monitor some pregnancies

0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:52.080
<v Speaker 1>of humans, and if anything looked bad at any point,

0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:55.159
<v Speaker 1>you could send those people back to Earth immediately. But

0:18:55.240 --> 0:18:58.080
<v Speaker 1>if the pregnancy seemed to be developing normally, you could,

0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:01.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, let it progress and very carefully watch how

0:19:01.080 --> 0:19:03.800
<v Speaker 1>things were going on the Moon, and you could, you know,

0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:05.000
<v Speaker 1>sort of scale up that way.

0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:08.680
<v Speaker 2>But even in that scenario, you are experimenting on fetuses,

0:19:08.800 --> 0:19:12.040
<v Speaker 2>or on babies or on children. But I guess that's

0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:15.320
<v Speaker 2>just standard protocol. Right. We do that also here on

0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:18.240
<v Speaker 2>Earth when we're testing out new medications or new.

0:19:18.080 --> 0:19:21.040
<v Speaker 1>Treatments, right, yeah, right, And I agree, But I do

0:19:21.080 --> 0:19:25.440
<v Speaker 1>feel like there's a gradient of risk. And if you've

0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:28.000
<v Speaker 1>done a lot of experiments on animals, you can at

0:19:28.000 --> 0:19:32.000
<v Speaker 1>some point say we have reduced, yeah, the risk to

0:19:32.080 --> 0:19:34.480
<v Speaker 1>a point that we feel comfortable with. But I agree,

0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:36.480
<v Speaker 1>you are still taking a risk at some point.

0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:40.639
<v Speaker 2>Okay, So reproduction is tricky. What else is hard? On Mars?

0:19:40.960 --> 0:19:43.280
<v Speaker 1>Growing food is hard? So the surface of Mars is

0:19:43.320 --> 0:19:47.119
<v Speaker 1>covered in a jagged dust called regolith, and that jagged

0:19:47.200 --> 0:19:52.040
<v Speaker 1>dust also has a chemical called perchlorates, and those perchlorates

0:19:52.080 --> 0:19:55.840
<v Speaker 1>mess with your thyroid and the hormones produced by your thyroid,

0:19:55.920 --> 0:19:59.360
<v Speaker 1>and it messes up nervous system development in fetuses and

0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:02.800
<v Speaker 1>things like metabolism in adults. And if you try to

0:20:02.880 --> 0:20:06.600
<v Speaker 1>grow food like plants in that dirt, the prochlorates get

0:20:06.640 --> 0:20:09.119
<v Speaker 1>sucked into the plants, and so we're gonna have to

0:20:09.119 --> 0:20:12.040
<v Speaker 1>be very careful about that. And we we in general,

0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:14.240
<v Speaker 1>need to learn more about how we would grow food

0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:16.280
<v Speaker 1>in space, and how we would grow food in a

0:20:16.320 --> 0:20:19.800
<v Speaker 1>way that would also like generate oxygen and create sort

0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:22.720
<v Speaker 1>of like loops that would recycle our waste while growing food,

0:20:22.920 --> 0:20:26.040
<v Speaker 1>and closed loop ecosystems is what it's called, and we

0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:27.320
<v Speaker 1>need more research there.

0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:32.400
<v Speaker 2>All right, So jagged poisoned dust in everything bad and.

0:20:32.400 --> 0:20:34.280
<v Speaker 1>Dust storms that kick it up and cover the whole

0:20:34.280 --> 0:20:37.880
<v Speaker 1>planet in it for weeks sometimes at a time, which

0:20:37.880 --> 0:20:41.679
<v Speaker 1>is going to make solar panels a difficult way to

0:20:41.840 --> 0:20:43.040
<v Speaker 1>power your settlements.

0:20:43.200 --> 0:20:44.240
<v Speaker 2>I saw that in the Martian.

0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:47.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you did see that in the Martian, which means

0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:50.359
<v Speaker 1>we probably want to figure out portable nuclear reactors before

0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:52.480
<v Speaker 1>we get out there, which folks are working on, but

0:20:52.520 --> 0:20:53.920
<v Speaker 1>it's not quite ready yet.

0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:56.840
<v Speaker 2>Although some of the rovers on Mars are nuclear powered,

0:20:57.000 --> 0:21:00.080
<v Speaker 2>yes they are. So we have done nuclear power on Mars,

0:21:00.119 --> 0:21:01.720
<v Speaker 2>which is amazing as a species.

0:21:01.800 --> 0:21:05.520
<v Speaker 1>Like wow, Yes, so they're not nuclear reactors. They're like

0:21:05.560 --> 0:21:08.159
<v Speaker 1>thermo couples or something. So they've got like a little

0:21:08.640 --> 0:21:12.359
<v Speaker 1>piece of nuclear decaying material which provides warmth and a

0:21:12.400 --> 0:21:15.560
<v Speaker 1>little bit of energy. I think they often also have

0:21:15.720 --> 0:21:19.040
<v Speaker 1>some solar panels coupled to the system. But this is

0:21:19.080 --> 0:21:22.359
<v Speaker 1>not like a nuclear reactor that you can like turn

0:21:22.560 --> 0:21:24.880
<v Speaker 1>up to get more energy and down to get less energy.

0:21:24.960 --> 0:21:26.520
<v Speaker 1>It's not the kind of thing that could power an

0:21:26.640 --> 0:21:27.480
<v Speaker 1>entire habitat.

0:21:27.840 --> 0:21:30.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's more like a nuclear battery than a nuclear

0:21:30.640 --> 0:21:31.280
<v Speaker 2>power plant.

0:21:31.440 --> 0:21:31.800
<v Speaker 1>That's right.

0:21:31.960 --> 0:21:34.560
<v Speaker 2>We have a whole episode on nuclear space ships and

0:21:34.600 --> 0:21:36.440
<v Speaker 2>nuclear power in space. Check that out.

0:21:36.720 --> 0:21:39.800
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so that is like a subsample of the many

0:21:39.880 --> 0:21:42.440
<v Speaker 1>challenges we need to overcome to have a self sustaining

0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:45.280
<v Speaker 1>settlement on Mars. Let's not be labor the point too much.

0:21:45.320 --> 0:21:47.040
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of work that still needs to be done.

0:21:47.200 --> 0:21:48.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't think we could do it in twenty to

0:21:48.600 --> 0:21:51.439
<v Speaker 1>thirty years. But let's take a break, and when we

0:21:51.480 --> 0:21:55.880
<v Speaker 1>get back, let's talk about the feasibility of Musk's new

0:21:56.280 --> 0:22:19.320
<v Speaker 1>Moon plan, his new lunar ambitions. All right, we're back,

0:22:19.359 --> 0:22:23.600
<v Speaker 1>and we are talking about Musk's lunar ambitions. Musk is

0:22:23.680 --> 0:22:25.960
<v Speaker 1>now heading to the Moon instead of Mars, or at

0:22:26.000 --> 0:22:28.280
<v Speaker 1>least he's going to the Moon first. He still plans

0:22:28.280 --> 0:22:31.560
<v Speaker 1>on going to Mars. I noted in the last segment

0:22:31.600 --> 0:22:34.159
<v Speaker 1>that I'm actually kind of excited because going to the

0:22:34.200 --> 0:22:37.880
<v Speaker 1>Moon first gives us some time to learn some good

0:22:37.920 --> 0:22:41.879
<v Speaker 1>skills and practice with some technology before we go to Mars,

0:22:41.960 --> 0:22:45.159
<v Speaker 1>which is a much more like dangerous, far away place.

0:22:45.480 --> 0:22:47.600
<v Speaker 1>Whether or not will make the most of this opportunity

0:22:48.359 --> 0:22:50.280
<v Speaker 1>remains to be seen, because it seems like Musk does

0:22:50.320 --> 0:22:52.600
<v Speaker 1>sort of want to rush through things. But we could

0:22:53.119 --> 0:22:53.760
<v Speaker 1>learn from this.

0:22:54.359 --> 0:22:56.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, one of the big arguments in your book essentially

0:22:56.800 --> 0:22:58.560
<v Speaker 2>is that we're not ready to go to Mars and

0:22:58.600 --> 0:23:00.280
<v Speaker 2>we need to fill in a lot more staff to

0:23:00.320 --> 0:23:03.280
<v Speaker 2>get there, and experiments on the Moon and in near

0:23:03.320 --> 0:23:06.040
<v Speaker 2>Earth are part of those steps. So in that sense, hey,

0:23:06.080 --> 0:23:07.800
<v Speaker 2>maybe you must read your book and he's listening to

0:23:07.840 --> 0:23:08.320
<v Speaker 2>your advice.

0:23:08.720 --> 0:23:13.800
<v Speaker 1>H I doubt it, highly doubt it, but you know,

0:23:13.880 --> 0:23:16.280
<v Speaker 1>if so, that'd be great. Yeah, So the Moon does

0:23:16.320 --> 0:23:18.840
<v Speaker 1>have some pros, and this is what Musk is pointing out.

0:23:18.880 --> 0:23:22.720
<v Speaker 1>He's pointing out that you know, the moon is celestially speaking,

0:23:22.840 --> 0:23:26.800
<v Speaker 1>pretty close. It's three hundred and eighty five thousand kilometers

0:23:26.840 --> 0:23:30.800
<v Speaker 1>away and pretty much always the same distance away. That's

0:23:30.800 --> 0:23:31.440
<v Speaker 1>pretty nice.

0:23:31.800 --> 0:23:33.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's always available right.

0:23:33.480 --> 0:23:37.119
<v Speaker 1>Year round, yep. And so you can get resupply ships

0:23:37.160 --> 0:23:41.640
<v Speaker 1>there quickly. You can get medical advice almost in live time,

0:23:41.760 --> 0:23:45.040
<v Speaker 1>whereas Mars is so far away that there's a three

0:23:45.160 --> 0:23:48.200
<v Speaker 1>to twenty two minute communication delay depending on how far

0:23:48.280 --> 0:23:51.560
<v Speaker 1>away Mars is from Earth at the time. And that

0:23:51.680 --> 0:23:54.639
<v Speaker 1>also means that you can like control robots from Earth

0:23:54.760 --> 0:23:57.560
<v Speaker 1>in like pretty much lifetime. That's pretty great.

0:23:57.960 --> 0:23:59.919
<v Speaker 2>In fact, I think about the service of the Moon's

0:24:00.040 --> 0:24:02.520
<v Speaker 2>sort of the same way I think about Antarctica, because

0:24:02.560 --> 0:24:04.840
<v Speaker 2>like you can get to Antarctica, but you can't get

0:24:04.880 --> 0:24:07.600
<v Speaker 2>there like this afternoon. Yeah, you know, there's like a

0:24:07.600 --> 0:24:09.399
<v Speaker 2>few planes and a few boats, like it takes a

0:24:09.400 --> 0:24:12.240
<v Speaker 2>couple of days. And if you're in Antarctica and you

0:24:12.280 --> 0:24:15.040
<v Speaker 2>need to get home like asap, you can't like be

0:24:15.160 --> 0:24:18.160
<v Speaker 2>home for emergency surgery that evening, right. It's a lot

0:24:18.200 --> 0:24:20.480
<v Speaker 2>of planning, and so in the same way, like, yeah,

0:24:20.520 --> 0:24:22.280
<v Speaker 2>you can get there, it's just not easy.

0:24:22.920 --> 0:24:26.760
<v Speaker 1>With the Apollo thirteen crew, like things went wrong and

0:24:26.800 --> 0:24:30.080
<v Speaker 1>they were able to like get help and turn around

0:24:30.160 --> 0:24:32.880
<v Speaker 1>and get back in time, and everyone survived. And then

0:24:32.920 --> 0:24:35.960
<v Speaker 1>in Antarctica, there was like a woman who figured out

0:24:36.000 --> 0:24:38.800
<v Speaker 1>that she had breast cancer. She was a doctor and

0:24:38.880 --> 0:24:42.720
<v Speaker 1>she was able to like do a biopsy. She realized

0:24:42.720 --> 0:24:46.040
<v Speaker 1>she had breast cancer, and she ended up getting like

0:24:46.440 --> 0:24:49.080
<v Speaker 1>saved by a rescue mission that was able to come

0:24:49.119 --> 0:24:50.240
<v Speaker 1>like towards the end of the season.

0:24:50.320 --> 0:24:52.680
<v Speaker 2>Right, do you know this story, Yeah, this is amazing.

0:24:52.720 --> 0:24:55.160
<v Speaker 2>This is Jerry Nielsen, and she like did a biopsy

0:24:55.320 --> 0:25:00.919
<v Speaker 2>on herself in Antarctica and like started treating herself with chemotherapy.

0:25:01.720 --> 0:25:04.439
<v Speaker 2>She was then evacuated, but like they couldn't get her

0:25:04.480 --> 0:25:07.480
<v Speaker 2>out very easily because like you can reach Antarctica much

0:25:07.480 --> 0:25:10.160
<v Speaker 2>more easily during some parts of the year than others.

0:25:10.800 --> 0:25:13.639
<v Speaker 2>And so they sent a plane several weeks ahead of

0:25:13.640 --> 0:25:16.480
<v Speaker 2>schedule in this crazy weather to bring her back and

0:25:16.520 --> 0:25:18.480
<v Speaker 2>they were able to evacuate her back to the US

0:25:18.480 --> 0:25:19.080
<v Speaker 2>for surgery.

0:25:19.440 --> 0:25:22.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so, like it's difficult, but you have some options,

0:25:22.000 --> 0:25:24.280
<v Speaker 1>whereas it like for Mars, you're just one hundred percent

0:25:24.280 --> 0:25:27.520
<v Speaker 1>out of luck. Yeah, although there was that one Russian

0:25:27.840 --> 0:25:31.639
<v Speaker 1>surgeon who did his own appendectomy in Antarctica. Because he

0:25:31.680 --> 0:25:35.680
<v Speaker 1>couldn't get out on time like that is pretty hardcore.

0:25:36.119 --> 0:25:41.119
<v Speaker 1>I would just be dead anyway, all right. So the

0:25:41.160 --> 0:25:47.480
<v Speaker 1>Moon also has some cool stuff like silicon, aluminum, magnesium, iron, titanium,

0:25:47.560 --> 0:25:51.160
<v Speaker 1>things that might be helpful for building stuff like solar panels.

0:25:51.400 --> 0:25:53.560
<v Speaker 2>It's also helium three on the moon, isn't there.

0:25:54.160 --> 0:25:54.400
<v Speaker 1>Yeah?

0:25:55.600 --> 0:25:58.359
<v Speaker 2>Correct, You don't sound excited about that. Why not, Kelly?

0:25:58.520 --> 0:26:00.879
<v Speaker 2>Everybody talks about helium three a fusion fuel.

0:26:01.080 --> 0:26:03.800
<v Speaker 1>That, yes, and maybe one day helium three will be

0:26:03.800 --> 0:26:07.960
<v Speaker 1>a helpful fusion fuel on the Moon. I don't think

0:26:07.960 --> 0:26:11.800
<v Speaker 1>it's worth digging through tons of regolith on the Moon

0:26:11.880 --> 0:26:15.400
<v Speaker 1>to collect helium three for nuclear reactors that we aren't quite.

0:26:15.200 --> 0:26:17.639
<v Speaker 2>Using yet or don't know how to build.

0:26:17.480 --> 0:26:21.000
<v Speaker 1>Or don't know how to build. But some people disagree.

0:26:20.560 --> 0:26:23.560
<v Speaker 2>With me, and quick primer there. Helium three is a

0:26:23.600 --> 0:26:26.920
<v Speaker 2>fuel for fusion. Fusion is not a technology we've made

0:26:27.000 --> 0:26:29.560
<v Speaker 2>to work here on the surface of the Earth with

0:26:29.720 --> 0:26:32.560
<v Speaker 2>all of our infrastructure. We might one day get it

0:26:32.600 --> 0:26:34.359
<v Speaker 2>to work, and we might one day be able to

0:26:34.359 --> 0:26:37.479
<v Speaker 2>do it on the Moon. But helium three based fusion,

0:26:37.520 --> 0:26:40.560
<v Speaker 2>although it has some advantages, is also harder to get

0:26:40.560 --> 0:26:43.919
<v Speaker 2>to work. So we're talking about an extra hard version

0:26:44.000 --> 0:26:46.720
<v Speaker 2>of fusion that we haven't made work here on Earth yet.

0:26:46.600 --> 0:26:48.119
<v Speaker 1>Even when we're doing the easy version.

0:26:48.280 --> 0:26:49.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Yeah.

0:26:49.320 --> 0:26:52.520
<v Speaker 1>The Moon also has lava tubes, and lava tubes are

0:26:52.600 --> 0:26:55.119
<v Speaker 1>kind of cool because when you're underground, that protects you

0:26:55.160 --> 0:26:59.239
<v Speaker 1>from space radiation. It also protects you from impacts from like,

0:26:59.320 --> 0:27:02.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, space debris that might fall onto the surface

0:27:02.640 --> 0:27:05.960
<v Speaker 1>of the Moon and could maybe puncture your habitat, and

0:27:06.160 --> 0:27:09.920
<v Speaker 1>temperature swings are a little bit less extreme in lava tubes.

0:27:10.320 --> 0:27:13.159
<v Speaker 1>And speaking of those temperature extremes, let's go ahead and

0:27:13.280 --> 0:27:16.920
<v Speaker 1>jump to the con because the Moon has a lot

0:27:17.000 --> 0:27:17.280
<v Speaker 1>of them.

0:27:17.840 --> 0:27:20.520
<v Speaker 2>I love how you put lava tubes as a positive,

0:27:20.640 --> 0:27:23.480
<v Speaker 2>like lava tubes, Like, who wants to live in a

0:27:23.560 --> 0:27:26.280
<v Speaker 2>lava tube? That doesn't sound like cozy or appealing or

0:27:26.320 --> 0:27:28.919
<v Speaker 2>attractive to me at all. So like the fact that

0:27:28.960 --> 0:27:30.680
<v Speaker 2>you have to put it in the pro category just

0:27:30.720 --> 0:27:32.800
<v Speaker 2>tells you, like there's not a whole lot of pros

0:27:32.880 --> 0:27:33.920
<v Speaker 2>in that category.

0:27:34.280 --> 0:27:37.120
<v Speaker 1>No. No, I mean I think it would be cool

0:27:37.160 --> 0:27:41.840
<v Speaker 1>to go in a lunar lava tube to like explore once,

0:27:42.359 --> 0:27:43.480
<v Speaker 1>but I wouldn't want to live there.

0:27:43.520 --> 0:27:45.920
<v Speaker 2>No, I mean, I don't even like going in caves.

0:27:47.040 --> 0:27:50.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm claustrophobic. I went in a cave once and I

0:27:50.119 --> 0:27:51.760
<v Speaker 1>was like, I need to get out of here.

0:27:52.000 --> 0:27:53.600
<v Speaker 2>And then once you read the story by the guy

0:27:53.600 --> 0:27:55.639
<v Speaker 2>who like crawled into the cave of the wrong direction

0:27:55.720 --> 0:27:56.920
<v Speaker 2>and got stuck upside down.

0:27:57.280 --> 0:28:00.520
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, stuff, Yeah, you don't want to see. Moving on,

0:28:00.600 --> 0:28:04.320
<v Speaker 1>Moving on. So the temperature at the lunar equator swings

0:28:04.359 --> 0:28:08.320
<v Speaker 1>from negative one hundred and thirty degrees celsius to positive

0:28:08.600 --> 0:28:10.639
<v Speaker 1>one hundred and twenty degrees celsius.

0:28:11.160 --> 0:28:13.600
<v Speaker 2>Wait, by the fundamental theorem of calculus, that means at

0:28:13.600 --> 0:28:15.200
<v Speaker 2>some moment it must be room temperature.

0:28:16.160 --> 0:28:18.960
<v Speaker 1>Yes, yes, there is a moment where you'll be like, oh,

0:28:18.960 --> 0:28:22.080
<v Speaker 1>that's comfortable before you either freeze to death or like

0:28:22.520 --> 0:28:23.600
<v Speaker 1>overheat to death.

0:28:23.720 --> 0:28:24.120
<v Speaker 2>Nice.

0:28:24.520 --> 0:28:27.160
<v Speaker 1>Yes, so sorry, it could kill you in either direction,

0:28:27.760 --> 0:28:32.160
<v Speaker 1>which is lovely. The daytimes last the equivalent of two

0:28:32.240 --> 0:28:35.399
<v Speaker 1>weeks here on Earth, and the night times also last

0:28:35.480 --> 0:28:36.919
<v Speaker 1>the equivalent of two weeks.

0:28:37.119 --> 0:28:39.720
<v Speaker 2>Why is that two weeks? Is that because the moon

0:28:39.800 --> 0:28:41.000
<v Speaker 2>is tidly locked to the Earth.

0:28:41.480 --> 0:28:47.120
<v Speaker 1>Probably, how about you explain that physicist friend of mine.

0:28:46.960 --> 0:28:48.960
<v Speaker 2>So the reason a day lasts for two weeks on

0:28:49.000 --> 0:28:51.800
<v Speaker 2>the moon is that the moon takes four weeks to

0:28:52.120 --> 0:28:54.800
<v Speaker 2>orbit the Earth, and it's timely locked to the Earth.

0:28:55.200 --> 0:28:57.320
<v Speaker 2>And so what that means is that essentially takes four

0:28:57.360 --> 0:28:59.960
<v Speaker 2>weeks for the Moon to spin relative to the Sun.

0:29:00.640 --> 0:29:03.280
<v Speaker 2>And so that's why day lasts for two weeks because

0:29:03.320 --> 0:29:06.600
<v Speaker 2>relative to the Sun, the moon spins once every four

0:29:06.640 --> 0:29:08.920
<v Speaker 2>weeks because it's connected to the Earth, and it takes

0:29:09.200 --> 0:29:11.000
<v Speaker 2>four weeks to orbit the Earth.

0:29:11.120 --> 0:29:14.800
<v Speaker 1>Excellent. That's a long time though to be at negative

0:29:14.800 --> 0:29:17.520
<v Speaker 1>one hundred and thirty degrees celsius, yes, or at a

0:29:17.560 --> 0:29:20.080
<v Speaker 1>positive one hundred and twenty degrees celsius. It's a long

0:29:20.120 --> 0:29:23.240
<v Speaker 1>time to be at either of those temperatures. Sounds real bad.

0:29:24.280 --> 0:29:27.160
<v Speaker 1>Another thing that sounds real bad is that if you

0:29:27.280 --> 0:29:30.480
<v Speaker 1>are trying to create a self sustaining settlement, then you

0:29:30.520 --> 0:29:35.960
<v Speaker 1>are going to need carbon and nitrogen and phosphorus. And

0:29:36.040 --> 0:29:39.160
<v Speaker 1>the surface of the Moon is low on all of

0:29:39.200 --> 0:29:40.000
<v Speaker 1>those things.

0:29:40.280 --> 0:29:42.680
<v Speaker 2>Why do you need nitrogen and phosphorus. I don't like

0:29:42.800 --> 0:29:44.280
<v Speaker 2>buy those at the store every day.

0:29:44.800 --> 0:29:47.440
<v Speaker 1>Well, that's because Earth has plenty of those things, and

0:29:47.600 --> 0:29:51.520
<v Speaker 1>plants suck those things up and you get those from plants.

0:29:51.560 --> 0:29:54.040
<v Speaker 1>And if you want to grow plants, which you probably do,

0:29:54.120 --> 0:29:57.160
<v Speaker 1>because we like eating those things. You're going to need

0:29:57.200 --> 0:30:00.600
<v Speaker 1>to bring tons of that stuff with you to create

0:30:00.640 --> 0:30:04.400
<v Speaker 1>your self sustaining settlement. And right now, probably the most

0:30:04.440 --> 0:30:08.040
<v Speaker 1>concentrated source of carbon on the Moon are the ninety

0:30:08.080 --> 0:30:11.080
<v Speaker 1>six bags of feces, vomit, and urine that were left

0:30:11.120 --> 0:30:15.400
<v Speaker 1>behind by the Apollo astronauts on the surface of the Moon.

0:30:16.200 --> 0:30:18.000
<v Speaker 1>But those belong to NASA.

0:30:18.200 --> 0:30:20.280
<v Speaker 2>Oh, the misfertilizer.

0:30:20.760 --> 0:30:24.360
<v Speaker 1>No, you are not supposed to grow tomatoes in Neil

0:30:24.440 --> 0:30:26.240
<v Speaker 1>Armstrong's Long Lost Bowel movements.

0:30:27.040 --> 0:30:30.120
<v Speaker 2>Wait, so we need fertilizer to grow any food on

0:30:30.120 --> 0:30:32.560
<v Speaker 2>the Moon, which means we need to bring all that

0:30:32.640 --> 0:30:34.160
<v Speaker 2>fertilizer with us.

0:30:34.640 --> 0:30:37.320
<v Speaker 1>Yes, or you could import it. You could import it.

0:30:37.360 --> 0:30:38.840
<v Speaker 1>You could you know, you could put it on a rocket,

0:30:38.920 --> 0:30:42.080
<v Speaker 1>or you could find it somewhere else in space and

0:30:42.160 --> 0:30:44.960
<v Speaker 1>bring it from there to the Moon. But the Moon,

0:30:45.120 --> 0:30:47.240
<v Speaker 1>the Moon ain't got it. Like you know, there's there's

0:30:47.280 --> 0:30:50.520
<v Speaker 1>some ammonia in the water at the poles, which we're

0:30:50.520 --> 0:30:54.080
<v Speaker 1>going to talk about. Ammonia has nitrogen, and so you

0:30:54.160 --> 0:30:57.320
<v Speaker 1>can get some nitrogen, but it's not going to be

0:30:57.440 --> 0:30:59.680
<v Speaker 1>enough to create a self sustaining settlement. It's not going

0:30:59.760 --> 0:31:01.280
<v Speaker 1>to be enough to make up for the fact that

0:31:01.320 --> 0:31:02.760
<v Speaker 1>you're going to need to grow a whole lot of

0:31:02.760 --> 0:31:03.880
<v Speaker 1>plants to support people.

0:31:04.240 --> 0:31:08.080
<v Speaker 2>So in the spirit a steel manning Musk's plan, has

0:31:08.200 --> 0:31:11.520
<v Speaker 2>he elaborated or even hinted on how he's going to

0:31:11.520 --> 0:31:13.040
<v Speaker 2>solve any of these problems.

0:31:13.720 --> 0:31:16.440
<v Speaker 1>No, not as far as I've seen. But let's go

0:31:16.440 --> 0:31:19.040
<v Speaker 1>ahead and dig into a few more of the things

0:31:19.080 --> 0:31:21.000
<v Speaker 1>that are going to make living on the Moon difficult,

0:31:21.080 --> 0:31:23.800
<v Speaker 1>and then we'll get into some of the plan that

0:31:23.840 --> 0:31:26.320
<v Speaker 1>he has elaborated on so far. All right, First of all,

0:31:26.360 --> 0:31:28.400
<v Speaker 1>I want to note that those temperature swings are going

0:31:28.440 --> 0:31:31.080
<v Speaker 1>to be bad for equipment as well as people, so

0:31:31.600 --> 0:31:33.680
<v Speaker 1>building factories on the Moon is going to be difficult.

0:31:34.320 --> 0:31:36.640
<v Speaker 1>Another thing that's going to make building on the Moon

0:31:36.680 --> 0:31:39.560
<v Speaker 1>difficult is going to be that regolith. So, just like

0:31:39.600 --> 0:31:43.280
<v Speaker 1>on Mars, the Moon has jagged regolith, but on the

0:31:43.320 --> 0:31:46.480
<v Speaker 1>Moon it also tends to cling. So the solar wind

0:31:46.560 --> 0:31:48.880
<v Speaker 1>makes it electrostatic, and it also makes it sort of

0:31:49.040 --> 0:31:52.600
<v Speaker 1>levitate a little bit, and it sticks to stuff, and

0:31:52.680 --> 0:31:55.200
<v Speaker 1>one the stuff it sticks to gets a little bit darker,

0:31:55.280 --> 0:31:58.640
<v Speaker 1>so it tends to absorb heat and make things overheat

0:31:58.680 --> 0:32:01.440
<v Speaker 1>a little bit. We think that one of the Soviet

0:32:01.560 --> 0:32:06.720
<v Speaker 1>rovers lunicod overheated because it got some regolith on top

0:32:06.760 --> 0:32:10.840
<v Speaker 1>of its solar panels, and then everything overheated and it's

0:32:10.840 --> 0:32:13.600
<v Speaker 1>super abrasive, and so the astronauts would complain that if

0:32:13.600 --> 0:32:15.760
<v Speaker 1>they got it on, like they had these little watches

0:32:15.800 --> 0:32:18.200
<v Speaker 1>that also had their like instructions for stuff they were

0:32:18.200 --> 0:32:20.479
<v Speaker 1>supposed to do for the day, and if they wiped

0:32:20.520 --> 0:32:22.920
<v Speaker 1>the regolith off of it, it scratched it so they

0:32:22.960 --> 0:32:25.280
<v Speaker 1>could no longer read what was written on their watches,

0:32:25.800 --> 0:32:28.200
<v Speaker 1>and so that's also going to be bad for equipment,

0:32:28.760 --> 0:32:31.400
<v Speaker 1>also bad for humans. There's concern that if you breathe

0:32:31.440 --> 0:32:33.920
<v Speaker 1>it in, it's going to scratch your lungs and cause

0:32:33.960 --> 0:32:37.200
<v Speaker 1>stone grinder's disease, which essentially means you get scars in

0:32:37.240 --> 0:32:41.040
<v Speaker 1>your lungs until you can't breathe anymore. Bad. Bad. The

0:32:41.080 --> 0:32:44.959
<v Speaker 1>Moon has pretty much no atmosphere. We call it an exosphere.

0:32:45.000 --> 0:32:48.920
<v Speaker 1>It's like essentially a negligible atmosphere. Although physicists would be like,

0:32:49.000 --> 0:32:49.880
<v Speaker 1>it still exists.

0:32:50.840 --> 0:32:55.800
<v Speaker 2>Bah, physicists, Well, there is a distinction there. An atmosphere

0:32:55.840 --> 0:32:58.800
<v Speaker 2>is dense enough that the particles interact, they bounce off

0:32:58.840 --> 0:33:02.120
<v Speaker 2>each other, et cetera exosphere the particles are there, but

0:33:02.160 --> 0:33:04.880
<v Speaker 2>there's such low density that they basically never interact with

0:33:04.920 --> 0:33:05.320
<v Speaker 2>each other.

0:33:05.920 --> 0:33:10.240
<v Speaker 1>Okay, all right, there you go. So they're there, but

0:33:10.360 --> 0:33:12.720
<v Speaker 1>they're sort of negligible from the perspective of human health.

0:33:12.800 --> 0:33:14.760
<v Speaker 1>You're you can't breathe out there.

0:33:14.600 --> 0:33:18.200
<v Speaker 2>For sure, and there's no protection from cosmic rays.

0:33:18.280 --> 0:33:20.880
<v Speaker 1>Absolutely, yes, right, yeah, so you are getting hit by

0:33:21.040 --> 0:33:24.080
<v Speaker 1>all the radiation space has to offer. The Moon has

0:33:24.160 --> 0:33:27.640
<v Speaker 1>one sixth of Earth's gravity, so your bones and your

0:33:27.680 --> 0:33:30.520
<v Speaker 1>muscles are probably degrading, which over time could be a

0:33:30.520 --> 0:33:33.560
<v Speaker 1>big problem. But again we don't really understand that very well.

0:33:34.280 --> 0:33:38.360
<v Speaker 1>And the Moon has water but not yeay, but not much,

0:33:38.960 --> 0:33:42.840
<v Speaker 1>not much, and that water is very concentrated. So like, yes,

0:33:42.920 --> 0:33:46.280
<v Speaker 1>there is technically some water all over the surface tied

0:33:46.360 --> 0:33:48.880
<v Speaker 1>up in that regolith, that dirt that's all over the surface,

0:33:49.320 --> 0:33:53.680
<v Speaker 1>But technically concrete also has some water in it, and

0:33:53.800 --> 0:33:55.720
<v Speaker 1>concrete is wetter than regolith.

0:33:56.640 --> 0:33:58.400
<v Speaker 2>Concrete doesn't seem very wet to me.

0:33:58.840 --> 0:34:01.080
<v Speaker 1>That's right, that's right, So you're probably not gonna want

0:34:01.080 --> 0:34:05.040
<v Speaker 1>to be extracting water from the regolith. But at the poles,

0:34:05.120 --> 0:34:07.920
<v Speaker 1>you have these areas where there are craters and on

0:34:08.000 --> 0:34:11.600
<v Speaker 1>the rims of the craters you could set up solar panels,

0:34:12.280 --> 0:34:14.480
<v Speaker 1>and that's great because you might remember that at the

0:34:14.520 --> 0:34:17.319
<v Speaker 1>equator you've got this two week stretch of darkness in

0:34:17.320 --> 0:34:19.360
<v Speaker 1>the middle of the night, so that's probably not a

0:34:19.360 --> 0:34:22.359
<v Speaker 1>great place for solar panels. But if you are at

0:34:22.360 --> 0:34:26.040
<v Speaker 1>the poles, over eighty percent of the time, you get

0:34:26.080 --> 0:34:29.480
<v Speaker 1>sunlight at the poles, especially if you're up on these rims,

0:34:30.080 --> 0:34:32.440
<v Speaker 1>so that's good for solar panels. And then inside of

0:34:32.440 --> 0:34:35.120
<v Speaker 1>the craters you get these areas that are permanently dark,

0:34:35.600 --> 0:34:39.520
<v Speaker 1>and there's water inside of those permanently dark craters. That

0:34:39.640 --> 0:34:43.960
<v Speaker 1>water has some stuff in it like methane, hydrogen sulfide,

0:34:44.000 --> 0:34:48.920
<v Speaker 1>and ammonia. Well you don't want to drink those, but

0:34:49.040 --> 0:34:51.839
<v Speaker 1>there's some carbon in there and some nitrogen in there,

0:34:51.880 --> 0:34:54.040
<v Speaker 1>so those are things that you could extract and use.

0:34:54.680 --> 0:34:56.440
<v Speaker 1>There's not going to be enough to sustain like a

0:34:56.440 --> 0:34:59.520
<v Speaker 1>million person settlements with the carbon and the nitrogen in there,

0:34:59.520 --> 0:35:01.080
<v Speaker 1>but you know you could you could still use some

0:35:01.160 --> 0:35:03.560
<v Speaker 1>of it. But once you extract it, then now you've

0:35:03.600 --> 0:35:05.759
<v Speaker 1>got water to drink or you could break it up,

0:35:05.800 --> 0:35:08.000
<v Speaker 1>and you've got some oxygen to breathe at that point.

0:35:08.520 --> 0:35:11.279
<v Speaker 1>But there's not a lot of water in there, So, like,

0:35:11.360 --> 0:35:14.239
<v Speaker 1>have you ever heard of Sardis Lake in Mississippi?

0:35:14.440 --> 0:35:15.360
<v Speaker 2>No?

0:35:15.360 --> 0:35:17.759
<v Speaker 1>No, Yeah, no one has because this is like a

0:35:17.800 --> 0:35:20.440
<v Speaker 1>tiny lake that's not worth knowing about. All.

0:35:20.880 --> 0:35:23.080
<v Speaker 2>What if we have listeners who live next to Sardist

0:35:23.160 --> 0:35:24.920
<v Speaker 2>Lake and now you're insulting them.

0:35:25.360 --> 0:35:28.200
<v Speaker 1>Okay, well, I'm sorry to people who enjoy Sardis Lake.

0:35:28.239 --> 0:35:31.040
<v Speaker 1>I hear there's bass there, and I like bass a lot,

0:35:31.520 --> 0:35:33.960
<v Speaker 1>But this is a human made lake that most people

0:35:34.000 --> 0:35:36.200
<v Speaker 1>haven't heard of because it's nowhere near as big as,

0:35:36.239 --> 0:35:38.880
<v Speaker 1>for example, the Great Lakes. Yeah, and the amount of

0:35:39.200 --> 0:35:41.960
<v Speaker 1>water that's estimated to be in all of the craters

0:35:42.160 --> 0:35:44.960
<v Speaker 1>is ten percent of the water that's estimated to be

0:35:45.000 --> 0:35:46.759
<v Speaker 1>in this lake that most of us haven't heard of.

0:35:47.280 --> 0:35:49.080
<v Speaker 2>So it's the point.

0:35:49.160 --> 0:35:51.880
<v Speaker 1>Okay, Yes, so it's not a lot of water.

0:35:52.280 --> 0:35:54.359
<v Speaker 2>So you're saying if you took all the water on

0:35:54.400 --> 0:35:57.560
<v Speaker 2>the Moon and put it somewhere in Michigan, it would

0:35:57.600 --> 0:36:00.520
<v Speaker 2>be smaller than a lake nobody's ever heard of except

0:36:00.520 --> 0:36:01.920
<v Speaker 2>for the wonderful people who live next to it.

0:36:02.280 --> 0:36:05.640
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's Mississippi, but I may have I used the

0:36:05.680 --> 0:36:10.520
<v Speaker 1>wrong abbreviation in our outline Mississippi. But anyway, yes, that's

0:36:10.680 --> 0:36:12.880
<v Speaker 1>that's the point I was trying to make, right.

0:36:12.760 --> 0:36:14.719
<v Speaker 2>Okay, So there's not a whole lot of water on

0:36:14.760 --> 0:36:15.080
<v Speaker 2>the moon.

0:36:15.719 --> 0:36:17.560
<v Speaker 1>Not a whole lot of water on the Moon. And

0:36:17.760 --> 0:36:20.440
<v Speaker 1>these craters of eternal darkness, which is what we call

0:36:20.480 --> 0:36:23.239
<v Speaker 1>these craters that have the water, they make up zero

0:36:23.239 --> 0:36:27.240
<v Speaker 1>point one percent of the lunar surface, so very small percent.

0:36:27.680 --> 0:36:30.600
<v Speaker 1>And those peaks, those rims where you can put your

0:36:30.600 --> 0:36:33.000
<v Speaker 1>solar panel. We call these the peaks of eternal light,

0:36:33.120 --> 0:36:35.560
<v Speaker 1>which is over selling it a little bit because they've

0:36:35.600 --> 0:36:38.480
<v Speaker 1>got light like eighty percent of the time. But they

0:36:38.480 --> 0:36:42.560
<v Speaker 1>are one one hundred billionth of the lunar surface, so

0:36:42.760 --> 0:36:46.520
<v Speaker 1>about two tennis courts. And these are the best places

0:36:46.600 --> 0:36:48.600
<v Speaker 1>on the moon because you've got, you know, water in

0:36:48.640 --> 0:36:51.680
<v Speaker 1>the best places for solar panels. And the reason you

0:36:51.719 --> 0:36:54.560
<v Speaker 1>want to know that is because this is probably where

0:36:54.640 --> 0:36:56.600
<v Speaker 1>Musk is going to want to go. And I was

0:36:56.640 --> 0:37:01.520
<v Speaker 1>watching a Chinese news channel and what they were talking

0:37:01.560 --> 0:37:04.040
<v Speaker 1>about was, hey, this is where we want to go.

0:37:04.280 --> 0:37:07.600
<v Speaker 1>Do we have to worry about Musk going there now too?

0:37:07.800 --> 0:37:11.080
<v Speaker 1>And this is also where NASA wants to go. And

0:37:11.120 --> 0:37:14.080
<v Speaker 1>so now you have this very small surface area that

0:37:14.200 --> 0:37:17.640
<v Speaker 1>is where everybody wants to go. And you know, this

0:37:17.760 --> 0:37:20.200
<v Speaker 1>program that I was watching was saying, like was part

0:37:20.239 --> 0:37:23.399
<v Speaker 1>of this new space race, and so you know, now

0:37:23.400 --> 0:37:25.400
<v Speaker 1>we've got this new space race and everybody trying to

0:37:25.400 --> 0:37:28.040
<v Speaker 1>go to the same places on the Moon, and that

0:37:28.200 --> 0:37:31.120
<v Speaker 1>is a little bit concerning to me in particular.

0:37:31.280 --> 0:37:32.719
<v Speaker 2>All right, so there are a few places where you

0:37:32.719 --> 0:37:34.719
<v Speaker 2>can get silli power eighty percent of the time. How

0:37:34.719 --> 0:37:38.759
<v Speaker 2>does that reconcile with your physicist explanation for why the

0:37:38.760 --> 0:37:40.680
<v Speaker 2>moon is in darkness for two weeks of time?

0:37:41.280 --> 0:37:43.520
<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, okay, great question. So if you are at

0:37:43.520 --> 0:37:46.359
<v Speaker 1>the equator, you get two weeks of night and then

0:37:46.400 --> 0:37:50.200
<v Speaker 1>two weeks of daytime. But at the poles, the Moon

0:37:50.400 --> 0:37:53.240
<v Speaker 1>has a different tilt than you get with the Earth,

0:37:53.880 --> 0:37:55.719
<v Speaker 1>and so the sun sort of glances off of it

0:37:55.760 --> 0:37:59.080
<v Speaker 1>in a slightly different way. And you know, and on

0:37:59.160 --> 0:38:01.880
<v Speaker 1>Earth you get like different day lengths. At the poles,

0:38:01.880 --> 0:38:04.760
<v Speaker 1>then you get at the equator, and these rims also

0:38:05.080 --> 0:38:07.160
<v Speaker 1>lift you up off the surface a little bit, and

0:38:07.200 --> 0:38:09.920
<v Speaker 1>so you've got solar panels up on poles, up on

0:38:09.960 --> 0:38:12.640
<v Speaker 1>top of the rims, and in that way you can

0:38:12.760 --> 0:38:15.600
<v Speaker 1>catch the sunlight as it glances off of the poles

0:38:16.080 --> 0:38:17.400
<v Speaker 1>about eighty percent of the time.

0:38:17.640 --> 0:38:20.120
<v Speaker 2>All right, So solar power is tricky. There's only a

0:38:20.120 --> 0:38:22.719
<v Speaker 2>few places you really want to do it. Fusion is

0:38:22.840 --> 0:38:26.279
<v Speaker 2>maybe impractical even here on Earth. What about good old

0:38:26.400 --> 0:38:28.359
<v Speaker 2>nuclear power. We know how to do that, We've been

0:38:28.360 --> 0:38:31.520
<v Speaker 2>doing it for decades. Can't we build small modular reactors

0:38:31.520 --> 0:38:32.399
<v Speaker 2>and send them to the moon.

0:38:32.960 --> 0:38:36.120
<v Speaker 1>Yeah? Sure, those portable nuclear reactors would be helpful on

0:38:36.160 --> 0:38:39.120
<v Speaker 1>the moon as well. We don't quite have those ready

0:38:39.320 --> 0:38:42.960
<v Speaker 1>to go to the moon yet, to power like factories

0:38:43.560 --> 0:38:46.160
<v Speaker 1>like Musk is talking about, but people are working on

0:38:46.200 --> 0:38:48.799
<v Speaker 1>stuff like that, and that would be helpful. And so

0:38:49.239 --> 0:38:51.680
<v Speaker 1>I guess the question is, do we imagine that we

0:38:51.719 --> 0:38:56.600
<v Speaker 1>could have a lunar city that would be self sustaining

0:38:56.640 --> 0:39:01.759
<v Speaker 1>in ten years? I think ten years? Is it really optimistic? Because, like,

0:39:01.800 --> 0:39:04.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean, when you are talking about temperature changes that

0:39:04.719 --> 0:39:07.560
<v Speaker 1>are like two hundred and fifty degrees celsius, I mean

0:39:07.600 --> 0:39:11.680
<v Speaker 1>the amount at which metal like expands and contracts at

0:39:11.680 --> 0:39:14.400
<v Speaker 1>those temperature swings, and like, you know how difficult it

0:39:14.480 --> 0:39:17.480
<v Speaker 1>is to get lubricants that don't like boil off at

0:39:17.480 --> 0:39:20.560
<v Speaker 1>that high temperature or like freeze at that low temperature.

0:39:20.680 --> 0:39:23.279
<v Speaker 1>There's just a lot of engineering challenges when you're working

0:39:23.280 --> 0:39:26.040
<v Speaker 1>at those sorts of temperature swings. I think we're not

0:39:26.080 --> 0:39:28.280
<v Speaker 1>going to overcome all of those challenges in ten years,

0:39:28.840 --> 0:39:32.440
<v Speaker 1>but you know, we could start building something in ten

0:39:32.520 --> 0:39:34.239
<v Speaker 1>years and that would be kind of fun.

0:39:34.440 --> 0:39:36.520
<v Speaker 2>All right, It does seem like this is a hard problem,

0:39:36.600 --> 0:39:40.719
<v Speaker 2>but remember SpaceX has done amazing things. What do you

0:39:40.760 --> 0:39:43.880
<v Speaker 2>think is the best way to attack each of these problems?

0:39:43.920 --> 0:39:47.240
<v Speaker 2>Like what is our best case scenario? Like for nuclear power,

0:39:47.280 --> 0:39:50.840
<v Speaker 2>we said small modulu reactors that might be possible. What

0:39:50.920 --> 0:39:53.279
<v Speaker 2>about the other challenges, what's the best case scenario for

0:39:53.320 --> 0:39:53.719
<v Speaker 2>each one?

0:39:53.960 --> 0:39:57.200
<v Speaker 1>All right? Well, so first I'll note that like Starship

0:39:57.560 --> 0:39:59.600
<v Speaker 1>was built so that you can move a lot of

0:39:59.680 --> 0:40:03.600
<v Speaker 1>mass fairly cheap, right, and so they could get things

0:40:03.640 --> 0:40:07.399
<v Speaker 1>like carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus stuff that they need to the Moon.

0:40:08.120 --> 0:40:11.319
<v Speaker 1>It would be expensive, but they are maybe in a

0:40:11.320 --> 0:40:13.520
<v Speaker 1>good position to move a lot of mass to the

0:40:13.560 --> 0:40:14.840
<v Speaker 1>Moon to make it more habitable.

0:40:15.040 --> 0:40:17.880
<v Speaker 2>I mean must talks about like daily launches or multiple

0:40:17.920 --> 0:40:21.080
<v Speaker 2>launches a day, like really getting a pipeline up to

0:40:21.120 --> 0:40:21.479
<v Speaker 2>the moon.

0:40:22.080 --> 0:40:24.879
<v Speaker 1>Yeah right, okay, and if that happens, you could get

0:40:24.880 --> 0:40:26.840
<v Speaker 1>some mass there. Again, I do think that would still

0:40:26.920 --> 0:40:30.000
<v Speaker 1>be expensive, but let's assume that that can happen. Yeah,

0:40:30.040 --> 0:40:34.680
<v Speaker 1>so all right, you could build factories in lava tubes

0:40:34.719 --> 0:40:37.520
<v Speaker 1>and that would protect you from the radiation, which you

0:40:37.840 --> 0:40:40.160
<v Speaker 1>and I recently had a whole episode about how radiation

0:40:40.360 --> 0:40:43.439
<v Speaker 1>is not just dangerous for human bodies but also bad

0:40:43.480 --> 0:40:46.319
<v Speaker 1>for our equipment. So you're definitely going to need to

0:40:46.320 --> 0:40:47.560
<v Speaker 1>protect yourself from radiation.

0:40:48.120 --> 0:40:51.160
<v Speaker 2>And does lava tubes also solve the temperature problem if

0:40:51.160 --> 0:40:53.960
<v Speaker 2>you're not on the surface, Is it more reasonable?

0:40:54.400 --> 0:40:58.320
<v Speaker 1>Yes, it is more reasonable. Yes, that results in milder

0:40:58.360 --> 0:41:01.440
<v Speaker 1>temperature swings if you're undergrad And it solves a lot

0:41:01.480 --> 0:41:03.920
<v Speaker 1>of the regolith problem because as the lava went through

0:41:04.120 --> 0:41:07.040
<v Speaker 1>it fused the regolith and so now you don't have

0:41:07.080 --> 0:41:09.279
<v Speaker 1>a lot of dust that's going to be getting into

0:41:09.280 --> 0:41:11.160
<v Speaker 1>your equipment and stuff like that. You still have the

0:41:11.160 --> 0:41:13.800
<v Speaker 1>problem of needing to figure out how you like lower

0:41:13.920 --> 0:41:17.200
<v Speaker 1>everything into the lava tube. You know, like we're not

0:41:17.440 --> 0:41:21.600
<v Speaker 1>super experienced with moving around on the surface of the

0:41:21.600 --> 0:41:26.080
<v Speaker 1>Moon and now we're like lunar splunking, But like that's

0:41:26.120 --> 0:41:28.760
<v Speaker 1>kind of a cool problem to solve, and so working

0:41:28.800 --> 0:41:31.520
<v Speaker 1>in the lava tubes could be you know cool, and

0:41:31.560 --> 0:41:35.360
<v Speaker 1>like if you could even like fuse the inside of

0:41:35.360 --> 0:41:37.680
<v Speaker 1>a lava tube and put an airlock in there, like

0:41:37.719 --> 0:41:41.319
<v Speaker 1>maybe you could create an environment where you could walk

0:41:41.360 --> 0:41:45.480
<v Speaker 1>around without spacesuits. If you could, you know, create a

0:41:45.600 --> 0:41:48.440
<v Speaker 1>pressurized environment inside of part of a lava tube.

0:41:48.719 --> 0:41:51.000
<v Speaker 2>Maybe yeah, all right, Well, I don't want to go

0:41:51.080 --> 0:41:53.600
<v Speaker 2>into a cave here on Earth. So caves on the

0:41:53.640 --> 0:41:56.439
<v Speaker 2>Moon don't sound very cozy, but they do sound better

0:41:56.440 --> 0:41:57.680
<v Speaker 2>than the surface, I'll admit.

0:41:57.800 --> 0:41:59.840
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, there are braver people out there than you and

0:41:59.880 --> 0:42:03.200
<v Speaker 1>me think. So, yeah, that's right, that's right, low bar.

0:42:03.520 --> 0:42:06.719
<v Speaker 2>But exactly, well, what about the water problem? I mean,

0:42:06.960 --> 0:42:09.640
<v Speaker 2>the Solar System is filled with water. There's huge chunks

0:42:09.680 --> 0:42:12.040
<v Speaker 2>of ice just out there. Certainly we don't need to

0:42:12.120 --> 0:42:14.520
<v Speaker 2>launch water from the surface of the Earth climbing up

0:42:14.560 --> 0:42:15.560
<v Speaker 2>the gravity, well do we.

0:42:15.760 --> 0:42:17.840
<v Speaker 1>Nope, that's true. And a lot of the asteroid mining

0:42:17.840 --> 0:42:22.279
<v Speaker 1>community has been excited about collecting water from asteroids and

0:42:22.320 --> 0:42:24.760
<v Speaker 1>figuring out how to extract it from asteroids and then

0:42:24.960 --> 0:42:27.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, selling it maybe to the International Space Station,

0:42:27.480 --> 0:42:32.120
<v Speaker 1>or maybe they could sell it to the Lunar SpaceX facility,

0:42:32.320 --> 0:42:35.520
<v Speaker 1>and so water could come from other locations in space

0:42:35.600 --> 0:42:37.080
<v Speaker 1>rather than pulling it out of our gravity.

0:42:37.120 --> 0:42:39.480
<v Speaker 2>Well, that seems pretty cool. I mean people buy like

0:42:39.560 --> 0:42:43.680
<v Speaker 2>Fiji water because it seems like exotic, now like asteroid water. Like, yeah,

0:42:43.719 --> 0:42:45.600
<v Speaker 2>I'd paid ten bucks for a bottle of asteroid water.

0:42:46.080 --> 0:42:48.799
<v Speaker 1>Yes, yeah, I mean that that could be a possibility.

0:42:49.000 --> 0:42:51.439
<v Speaker 2>But again that's not something we're going to figure out

0:42:51.520 --> 0:42:52.560
<v Speaker 2>in the next few years.

0:42:53.440 --> 0:42:57.680
<v Speaker 1>Agreed, that's right. So yeah, I mean you could have

0:42:57.719 --> 0:43:01.200
<v Speaker 1>a portable nuclear reactor that powers your factory inside of

0:43:01.200 --> 0:43:04.880
<v Speaker 1>a lava tube. I can technically see solutions to all

0:43:04.920 --> 0:43:09.239
<v Speaker 1>of these problems. Not in the next ten years, but yes,

0:43:09.320 --> 0:43:13.000
<v Speaker 1>I could see a path forward again, not inn tenues.

0:43:15.239 --> 0:43:17.680
<v Speaker 2>All right, well, on that positive note, let's take a

0:43:17.719 --> 0:43:20.719
<v Speaker 2>break and come back and talk about Musk's other dreams

0:43:20.800 --> 0:43:38.880
<v Speaker 2>for AI satellites.

0:43:42.160 --> 0:43:43.840
<v Speaker 1>All right, we're back, Daniel. I want to start with

0:43:43.840 --> 0:43:47.920
<v Speaker 1>a question to you, what is an AI satellite? Why

0:43:47.920 --> 0:43:51.359
<v Speaker 1>do you want an AI satellite?

0:43:53.040 --> 0:43:56.480
<v Speaker 2>I think when he says AI satellite, he's thinking about

0:43:56.520 --> 0:43:59.440
<v Speaker 2>all the data centers we're building the power AI because

0:44:00.000 --> 0:44:03.799
<v Speaker 2>AI essentially is deep neural networks, and neural networks are

0:44:03.840 --> 0:44:08.160
<v Speaker 2>basically lineary algebra, which rely on matrix multiplication, which means

0:44:08.120 --> 0:44:10.800
<v Speaker 2>the multiplying a bunch of numbers by another bunch of numbers,

0:44:10.840 --> 0:44:12.920
<v Speaker 2>and that's much faster if you do them in parallel

0:44:13.000 --> 0:44:15.520
<v Speaker 2>rather than doing them one at a time. And there

0:44:15.560 --> 0:44:20.880
<v Speaker 2>are special chips GPUs, which were invented for calculating very

0:44:20.960 --> 0:44:24.160
<v Speaker 2>quickly how to draw blood on your screen for your

0:44:24.239 --> 0:44:27.840
<v Speaker 2>video games, and along the way invented hardware technology to

0:44:27.960 --> 0:44:30.560
<v Speaker 2>very quickly do matrix multiplication because you also need that

0:44:30.640 --> 0:44:34.359
<v Speaker 2>for graphics on your video game. And then AI companies realized, oh,

0:44:34.400 --> 0:44:36.960
<v Speaker 2>that's also the same technology we need to do with

0:44:37.000 --> 0:44:40.000
<v Speaker 2>the linear algebra inside of our neural networks. So now

0:44:40.200 --> 0:44:44.000
<v Speaker 2>GPUs are basically AI chips. Even though they were invented

0:44:44.440 --> 0:44:46.960
<v Speaker 2>for video games, they found this other use. And I

0:44:46.960 --> 0:44:49.520
<v Speaker 2>think now the market is just swamped by people using

0:44:49.560 --> 0:44:52.200
<v Speaker 2>them for AI. So they shouldn't be called GPUs anymore.

0:44:52.200 --> 0:44:56.239
<v Speaker 2>They should be called like aipus or something I don't know.

0:44:57.120 --> 0:45:00.359
<v Speaker 2>And so I think when he says AI satellite, he's

0:45:00.360 --> 0:45:04.480
<v Speaker 2>thinking data centers in space in order to power AI.

0:45:05.000 --> 0:45:07.840
<v Speaker 1>Okay, all right, so yeah, so Musk has an AI

0:45:07.920 --> 0:45:12.839
<v Speaker 1>company called Xai, which was recently acquired by SpaceX.

0:45:13.200 --> 0:45:15.239
<v Speaker 2>I love that when Musk buys his own company with

0:45:15.320 --> 0:45:16.160
<v Speaker 2>his own company.

0:45:16.440 --> 0:45:20.960
<v Speaker 1>It feels like a scam, Yes, it feels weird, but anyway,

0:45:21.560 --> 0:45:23.040
<v Speaker 1>he owns the world, so he gets to do what

0:45:23.080 --> 0:45:26.880
<v Speaker 1>he wants, and so he's done that. These data centers,

0:45:26.920 --> 0:45:28.640
<v Speaker 1>as I understand it, and you probably know more, are

0:45:28.680 --> 0:45:32.720
<v Speaker 1>getting like huge, Like hasn't didn't Microsoft buy three Mile

0:45:32.800 --> 0:45:35.799
<v Speaker 1>Islands so they could use that nuclear power plant to

0:45:35.880 --> 0:45:37.000
<v Speaker 1>run their data center.

0:45:37.360 --> 0:45:40.680
<v Speaker 2>Absolutely. The thing that limits AI right now seems to

0:45:40.719 --> 0:45:44.600
<v Speaker 2>be the available GPUs. Like the more GPUs you throw

0:45:44.680 --> 0:45:47.920
<v Speaker 2>these things, the more powerful they get. There's this scaling

0:45:47.960 --> 0:45:50.720
<v Speaker 2>behavior where it just seems like going bigger means smarter,

0:45:51.120 --> 0:45:54.640
<v Speaker 2>So everybody's trying to go bigger than everybody else. And

0:45:54.680 --> 0:45:57.920
<v Speaker 2>there's a huge market now for these GPUs and for

0:45:58.040 --> 0:46:00.880
<v Speaker 2>memory also in these chips, which is why like computers

0:46:00.880 --> 0:46:03.640
<v Speaker 2>are getting expensive and memory is very expensive, and GPUs

0:46:03.640 --> 0:46:06.600
<v Speaker 2>are hard to find because there's like one company in

0:46:06.640 --> 0:46:09.080
<v Speaker 2>the world, in VideA that knows how to make the

0:46:09.120 --> 0:46:10.520
<v Speaker 2>cutting edge GPUs.

0:46:10.960 --> 0:46:14.440
<v Speaker 1>Must be a good time to work it in video, Yes.

0:46:15.800 --> 0:46:18.120
<v Speaker 2>It must be a good time to own in video stock.

0:46:18.000 --> 0:46:23.600
<v Speaker 1>Yeah right right, Okay, So why why space, Like why

0:46:23.719 --> 0:46:25.719
<v Speaker 1>move that all to space, because that's got to be

0:46:26.280 --> 0:46:29.080
<v Speaker 1>really expensive to do. Why not just keep doing that here?

0:46:29.840 --> 0:46:32.880
<v Speaker 2>Yes, so we build these things in massive data centers

0:46:32.920 --> 0:46:35.719
<v Speaker 2>here on the Earth. And they take a lot of

0:46:35.760 --> 0:46:39.880
<v Speaker 2>water to cool these computers, because computers use electricity and

0:46:39.920 --> 0:46:41.759
<v Speaker 2>when you do calculations, they heat up and so you

0:46:41.840 --> 0:46:43.480
<v Speaker 2>got to cool them. So we use a lot of

0:46:43.520 --> 0:46:45.280
<v Speaker 2>water to cool them. They draw a lot of power,

0:46:45.280 --> 0:46:47.920
<v Speaker 2>and they take a lot of space. There's environmental impact.

0:46:48.320 --> 0:46:52.160
<v Speaker 2>Real estate is expensive, and so recently muscles been talking

0:46:52.200 --> 0:46:54.680
<v Speaker 2>a lot about data centers in space. And people have

0:46:54.840 --> 0:46:57.759
<v Speaker 2>been talking about this for years, but mostly it was

0:46:57.800 --> 0:47:00.760
<v Speaker 2>scoffed at, and now people are taking it work seriously,

0:47:00.840 --> 0:47:02.879
<v Speaker 2>and so, you know, let me try to steal man

0:47:03.000 --> 0:47:06.680
<v Speaker 2>the arguments for data centers in space. Why do people

0:47:06.760 --> 0:47:10.000
<v Speaker 2>want to do that at all? Well, Number one, there's

0:47:10.080 --> 0:47:13.399
<v Speaker 2>power up there, right. If you have solar panels, then

0:47:13.480 --> 0:47:16.120
<v Speaker 2>those solar panels see the sun much more often, Like

0:47:16.160 --> 0:47:19.520
<v Speaker 2>there's no clouds in space, right. If you are far

0:47:19.640 --> 0:47:23.000
<v Speaker 2>enough from the Earth's surface, then you can always be

0:47:23.080 --> 0:47:26.080
<v Speaker 2>in sunshine, So solar panels can power you. There's more

0:47:26.080 --> 0:47:29.359
<v Speaker 2>power in space. So there's that. The other issue is

0:47:29.680 --> 0:47:32.680
<v Speaker 2>environmental impact. Some people argue, like why should we cover

0:47:32.760 --> 0:47:35.400
<v Speaker 2>the surface of the Earth, and data centers, we should

0:47:35.440 --> 0:47:38.040
<v Speaker 2>just put those out in space. Also because there's like

0:47:38.120 --> 0:47:40.640
<v Speaker 2>infinite real estate out there, right, you don't need to

0:47:41.040 --> 0:47:42.759
<v Speaker 2>take up land as somebody was going to use to

0:47:42.760 --> 0:47:46.120
<v Speaker 2>build houses to just fill space with data centers. Space

0:47:46.280 --> 0:47:48.560
<v Speaker 2>is really big and there's plenty of room up there,

0:47:49.200 --> 0:47:51.480
<v Speaker 2>and so you know, in terms of like scalability, and

0:47:51.480 --> 0:47:54.839
<v Speaker 2>that's definitely an advantage. You can flip some of the

0:47:54.880 --> 0:47:57.759
<v Speaker 2>cons and try to make them pros. Like one of

0:47:57.760 --> 0:48:00.440
<v Speaker 2>the cons is it's hard to get up there. So

0:48:00.719 --> 0:48:03.560
<v Speaker 2>anybody who's ever like run a computing system knows you

0:48:03.680 --> 0:48:05.840
<v Speaker 2>got to reboot the stuff, you got to repair the stuff.

0:48:05.880 --> 0:48:08.680
<v Speaker 2>You got to get in there sometimes physically to fix things.

0:48:09.040 --> 0:48:12.000
<v Speaker 2>And that's harder to do out in space. Remember when

0:48:12.000 --> 0:48:13.799
<v Speaker 2>we fix the Hubble, we had to like launch the

0:48:13.840 --> 0:48:16.279
<v Speaker 2>Shuttle with astronauts to do a space walk to fix

0:48:16.320 --> 0:48:18.759
<v Speaker 2>the hubble. It was a huge pain. So now you're

0:48:18.800 --> 0:48:21.960
<v Speaker 2>talking about like maintaining a data center in space. But

0:48:22.280 --> 0:48:24.520
<v Speaker 2>these guys flip it and they say, ooh, that makes

0:48:24.560 --> 0:48:29.799
<v Speaker 2>it less susceptible to terrorists for example. Right, So it's

0:48:29.840 --> 0:48:33.160
<v Speaker 2>like data sovereignty. You're out there in space you own

0:48:33.160 --> 0:48:36.759
<v Speaker 2>these computers where there the law is fuzzy, as you've

0:48:36.800 --> 0:48:39.719
<v Speaker 2>often said, Kelly, and so like, if my data is

0:48:39.760 --> 0:48:42.040
<v Speaker 2>out in space, then I don't have to worry about

0:48:42.080 --> 0:48:47.120
<v Speaker 2>like the US Administration trying to subpoena it, right because

0:48:47.120 --> 0:48:50.719
<v Speaker 2>it's not in their jurisdiction. Maybe my lawyers say, what

0:48:50.760 --> 0:48:52.839
<v Speaker 2>do you think about that argument? The face you're making

0:48:52.920 --> 0:48:54.400
<v Speaker 2>tells me you're not persuaded.

0:48:54.800 --> 0:48:58.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think you're still supposed to register your

0:48:58.600 --> 0:49:03.600
<v Speaker 1>satellite when you launch something. It is the responsibility, I

0:49:03.640 --> 0:49:08.880
<v Speaker 1>believe of somebody, because if your satellite smashes into something,

0:49:09.400 --> 0:49:12.600
<v Speaker 1>they need to know who would get sued. And so

0:49:12.680 --> 0:49:15.520
<v Speaker 1>I think someone is still responsible for it. And there

0:49:15.600 --> 0:49:19.520
<v Speaker 1>is a nation that would be responsible for paying the

0:49:19.520 --> 0:49:22.839
<v Speaker 1>bill if you don't pay the bill, and so I'm

0:49:22.880 --> 0:49:26.720
<v Speaker 1>pretty sure that you're not in a legal gray area

0:49:26.880 --> 0:49:29.960
<v Speaker 1>if you're out there. I'm not sure that holds up.

0:49:30.200 --> 0:49:34.160
<v Speaker 2>I think the strongest argument is that eventually we're going

0:49:34.239 --> 0:49:36.760
<v Speaker 2>to have space industry and we want to build stuff

0:49:36.960 --> 0:49:39.640
<v Speaker 2>for space, and if you do that, it makes sense

0:49:39.640 --> 0:49:42.279
<v Speaker 2>to build it in space. The idea is, if you

0:49:42.320 --> 0:49:44.920
<v Speaker 2>need this stuff for space, then why build it on

0:49:44.960 --> 0:49:47.040
<v Speaker 2>the surface of the Earth and then launch it. So

0:49:47.080 --> 0:49:49.120
<v Speaker 2>if you need, for example, data centers on the Moon,

0:49:49.480 --> 0:49:51.680
<v Speaker 2>build them in space, have them in space, don't build

0:49:51.719 --> 0:49:53.640
<v Speaker 2>them on the Earth and try to operate them from

0:49:53.640 --> 0:49:55.960
<v Speaker 2>the Moon or then launch them. And so if you

0:49:56.040 --> 0:49:59.360
<v Speaker 2>have some sort of self sustaining space economy, then I

0:49:59.360 --> 0:50:02.359
<v Speaker 2>do think there are arguments for building data centers out

0:50:02.400 --> 0:50:05.720
<v Speaker 2>in space using materials you already have out in space,

0:50:05.760 --> 0:50:08.120
<v Speaker 2>assuming you have people living out there in space who

0:50:08.200 --> 0:50:10.120
<v Speaker 2>can maintain them and support them and all this kind

0:50:10.160 --> 0:50:13.440
<v Speaker 2>of stuff. But it's a bit of a bootstrapping issue.

0:50:13.360 --> 0:50:15.880
<v Speaker 1>And I think part of that argument is because Earth's

0:50:15.880 --> 0:50:18.680
<v Speaker 1>gravity well is so hard to get out of that

0:50:18.800 --> 0:50:21.359
<v Speaker 1>if you were making the satellites, for example, on the Moon,

0:50:21.400 --> 0:50:23.480
<v Speaker 1>it would be much easier to get them out into

0:50:23.600 --> 0:50:26.120
<v Speaker 1>orbit exactly relative to Earth.

0:50:26.360 --> 0:50:30.040
<v Speaker 2>Even if they bring launch costs down right, Building huge

0:50:30.120 --> 0:50:33.359
<v Speaker 2>data centers in space would be very expensive, but it

0:50:33.440 --> 0:50:36.120
<v Speaker 2>is possible to build them in space for use in

0:50:36.200 --> 0:50:37.440
<v Speaker 2>space eventually.

0:50:38.239 --> 0:50:41.200
<v Speaker 1>Okay, So it sounds like Musk's plan is to build

0:50:41.280 --> 0:50:46.400
<v Speaker 1>AI satellites on the Moon and then use what he's

0:50:46.480 --> 0:50:52.320
<v Speaker 1>calling a mass driver to shoot them out into space yep,

0:50:52.760 --> 0:50:57.359
<v Speaker 1>which is interesting because he's a big hindline fan and

0:50:57.400 --> 0:51:01.000
<v Speaker 1>this sounds very moon is a harsh mistress, like where

0:51:01.040 --> 0:51:05.040
<v Speaker 1>they used a mass driver to shoot rocks using an

0:51:05.080 --> 0:51:09.920
<v Speaker 1>AI towards the Earth. But anyway, maybe I'm maybe I'm

0:51:10.239 --> 0:51:13.880
<v Speaker 1>projecting too much, but anyway, so well, mass.

0:51:13.680 --> 0:51:16.240
<v Speaker 2>Drivers are cool because on the surface of the Moon

0:51:16.480 --> 0:51:19.160
<v Speaker 2>gravity is much less, and so you don't need like

0:51:19.239 --> 0:51:23.319
<v Speaker 2>chemical rocket technology to escape the Moon's gravity. You just

0:51:23.400 --> 0:51:25.760
<v Speaker 2>need like a big gun. And so a mass driver

0:51:26.040 --> 0:51:29.600
<v Speaker 2>is just like you know, electromagnetic rail or you know

0:51:29.680 --> 0:51:32.840
<v Speaker 2>even a or even like a centrifuge, you know that

0:51:33.160 --> 0:51:36.720
<v Speaker 2>spins up and then throws things into space. That's pretty cool.

0:51:37.000 --> 0:51:39.359
<v Speaker 1>Now that you've done a pretty good job of emphasizing

0:51:39.360 --> 0:51:43.000
<v Speaker 1>all the positives, let's go ahead and give it the

0:51:43.080 --> 0:51:47.279
<v Speaker 1>Kelly treatment and talk about some of the some of

0:51:47.320 --> 0:51:49.799
<v Speaker 1>the negatives of doing this on the Moon.

0:51:50.040 --> 0:51:53.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so there are challenges to data centers in space.

0:51:53.680 --> 0:51:57.600
<v Speaker 2>Number one is cooling. There's a lot of misunderstanding about

0:51:57.600 --> 0:52:00.960
<v Speaker 2>how this works. People think of space as cold, and

0:52:01.000 --> 0:52:04.680
<v Speaker 2>so ooh, isn't cooling just free out in space? The

0:52:04.760 --> 0:52:08.440
<v Speaker 2>problem is space is an insulator, right, It's a vacuum.

0:52:08.480 --> 0:52:10.640
<v Speaker 2>The thing you have in your thermis, for example, that

0:52:10.760 --> 0:52:14.040
<v Speaker 2>keeps your coffee hot or your beverage is cold, is

0:52:14.080 --> 0:52:16.719
<v Speaker 2>a vacuum gap between the beverage and the rest of

0:52:16.760 --> 0:52:20.040
<v Speaker 2>the planet because it's hard for heat to go across

0:52:20.080 --> 0:52:22.520
<v Speaker 2>a vacuum, and that means if you have something hot

0:52:22.840 --> 0:52:25.960
<v Speaker 2>out in space, there's no air to blow across it

0:52:26.000 --> 0:52:28.839
<v Speaker 2>to get heated up to carry that heat away. You

0:52:28.880 --> 0:52:31.080
<v Speaker 2>can cool down in space, but there's only one way

0:52:31.120 --> 0:52:33.360
<v Speaker 2>to do it, which is to radiate that heat away.

0:52:33.800 --> 0:52:37.200
<v Speaker 2>So remember, everything that's out there that has a temperature glows,

0:52:37.280 --> 0:52:39.800
<v Speaker 2>and that means that it's cooling. It's giving off energy.

0:52:40.239 --> 0:52:42.040
<v Speaker 2>That also happens down here on Earth. You have like

0:52:42.040 --> 0:52:44.360
<v Speaker 2>a hot piece of metal, it's red hot, it's glowing,

0:52:44.440 --> 0:52:47.120
<v Speaker 2>it's giving off that energy. It's gonna cool down. But

0:52:47.239 --> 0:52:48.960
<v Speaker 2>here on Earth we have two ways to do it,

0:52:49.000 --> 0:52:52.280
<v Speaker 2>convection and radiation. Out in space, you only have radiation,

0:52:52.360 --> 0:52:55.560
<v Speaker 2>so you need to build big radiators out in space,

0:52:55.960 --> 0:52:59.040
<v Speaker 2>or bring a bunch of water to run across your chips.

0:52:59.080 --> 0:53:02.080
<v Speaker 2>But you already are are short on water. So cooling

0:53:02.120 --> 0:53:05.240
<v Speaker 2>is going to be extra hard in space, not extra easy.

0:53:05.520 --> 0:53:06.200
<v Speaker 1>That's number one.

0:53:06.440 --> 0:53:08.920
<v Speaker 2>That's number one. Then there's a question of the radiation.

0:53:09.239 --> 0:53:12.400
<v Speaker 2>Our data centers here on Earth run under the protection

0:53:12.520 --> 0:53:15.719
<v Speaker 2>of our magnetic shield. Right, the magnetic field of the

0:53:15.800 --> 0:53:18.920
<v Speaker 2>Earth deflects a lot of cosmic rays and the atmosphere

0:53:18.960 --> 0:53:22.800
<v Speaker 2>which protects us from cosmic rays. Even still, data centers,

0:53:22.800 --> 0:53:25.000
<v Speaker 2>as we talked about on a recent episode, have to

0:53:25.160 --> 0:53:28.719
<v Speaker 2>correct for bitflips from cosmic rays. I had dinner the

0:53:28.760 --> 0:53:30.720
<v Speaker 2>other night with a guy who runs the data centers

0:53:30.719 --> 0:53:34.000
<v Speaker 2>for Nvidia, and they have all this cool technology to

0:53:34.120 --> 0:53:36.919
<v Speaker 2>correct for bitflips, which is frustrating to me because when

0:53:36.920 --> 0:53:40.040
<v Speaker 2>they delete those bitflips, they're deleting physics information that could

0:53:40.040 --> 0:53:43.680
<v Speaker 2>teach us about the universe. But anyway, I know, but

0:53:43.719 --> 0:53:46.040
<v Speaker 2>somebody's got to generate that image of puppies playing poker

0:53:46.160 --> 0:53:49.479
<v Speaker 2>or whatever. Anyway, this is harder out in space because

0:53:49.520 --> 0:53:53.120
<v Speaker 2>you have no protection, and radiation is bad for computers,

0:53:53.160 --> 0:53:55.600
<v Speaker 2>and what you're doing is running computers in space, and

0:53:55.680 --> 0:53:59.520
<v Speaker 2>so you need extra hardcore chips, which we have not developed,

0:53:59.760 --> 0:54:03.600
<v Speaker 2>or you need shielding, which means again more mass. So

0:54:03.719 --> 0:54:06.160
<v Speaker 2>this is harder to do in space than it is

0:54:06.200 --> 0:54:09.480
<v Speaker 2>here on Earth. It's a more important, more challenging problem.

0:54:10.160 --> 0:54:13.200
<v Speaker 2>And then of course the biggest one is maintenance. Right,

0:54:13.360 --> 0:54:16.759
<v Speaker 2>something always breaks. You built something at scale, it needs

0:54:16.760 --> 0:54:19.400
<v Speaker 2>a whole team of people to keep it running. Nothing,

0:54:19.760 --> 0:54:23.439
<v Speaker 2>even like the Golden gate Bridge, just stands there and works, right.

0:54:23.440 --> 0:54:27.000
<v Speaker 2>It needs constant maintenance. Everything does, which means you need

0:54:27.040 --> 0:54:29.239
<v Speaker 2>a team of people up there all the time, or

0:54:29.320 --> 0:54:32.480
<v Speaker 2>launching up there all the time. And it's much further away.

0:54:32.800 --> 0:54:35.400
<v Speaker 2>Imagine you were in charge of maintaining a computer on

0:54:35.440 --> 0:54:38.400
<v Speaker 2>a table in Antarctica. It would be really hard to

0:54:38.440 --> 0:54:40.440
<v Speaker 2>do if you could never go there and fix it,

0:54:40.680 --> 0:54:42.880
<v Speaker 2>or if it was hard to get there. And so

0:54:42.960 --> 0:54:45.040
<v Speaker 2>this thing is going to be down all the time,

0:54:45.320 --> 0:54:46.960
<v Speaker 2>and they're going to be people trying to fix it

0:54:47.080 --> 0:54:49.440
<v Speaker 2>all the time. And maybe we could get better at

0:54:49.440 --> 0:54:52.359
<v Speaker 2>building computers that didn't need so much maintenance, but we're

0:54:52.360 --> 0:54:53.440
<v Speaker 2>definitely not there yet.

0:54:54.040 --> 0:54:56.800
<v Speaker 1>What about maintaining those giant solar panels.

0:54:56.480 --> 0:55:00.279
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, exactly right. Solar panels also are set instead of

0:55:00.320 --> 0:55:02.800
<v Speaker 2>two radiation, So those things are going to get destroyed.

0:55:03.000 --> 0:55:04.920
<v Speaker 2>They need to get replaced, or they need to be

0:55:04.960 --> 0:55:09.200
<v Speaker 2>more robust. Another disadvantage is it's further away, and so

0:55:09.640 --> 0:55:12.400
<v Speaker 2>maybe if you don't care about latency, then it's not

0:55:12.440 --> 0:55:15.040
<v Speaker 2>a big deal. But if you want like fast turnaround

0:55:15.040 --> 0:55:17.680
<v Speaker 2>times to your calculation. You want to press the button

0:55:17.680 --> 0:55:20.000
<v Speaker 2>and get the answer instantly. Then you don't want to

0:55:20.000 --> 0:55:23.560
<v Speaker 2>put your data center far away because that adds latency

0:55:23.600 --> 0:55:24.560
<v Speaker 2>to your calculation.

0:55:25.160 --> 0:55:27.360
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to wait for my puppy playing poker.

0:55:30.719 --> 0:55:33.560
<v Speaker 2>And in terms of environmental issues, if you're building the

0:55:33.560 --> 0:55:36.480
<v Speaker 2>stuff here on Earth and then launching it, like launching

0:55:36.520 --> 0:55:39.400
<v Speaker 2>things into space, is not great for the environment.

0:55:39.920 --> 0:55:42.200
<v Speaker 1>So I don't actually know what Musk's plan is. Do

0:55:42.239 --> 0:55:44.760
<v Speaker 1>you think that his plan is to build these things

0:55:44.840 --> 0:55:47.919
<v Speaker 1>on the moon or would that be just like way

0:55:47.960 --> 0:55:48.920
<v Speaker 1>too complicated to do.

0:55:49.360 --> 0:55:51.160
<v Speaker 2>No. I think his plan is to build things on

0:55:51.200 --> 0:55:53.120
<v Speaker 2>the moon. That makes a lot more sense, but it

0:55:53.160 --> 0:55:55.640
<v Speaker 2>assumes that we have the capacity to do this on

0:55:55.760 --> 0:55:58.040
<v Speaker 2>the moon. But yeah, it's a lot cheaper if you

0:55:58.080 --> 0:56:01.320
<v Speaker 2>build these things essentially in space, use in space. Building

0:56:01.400 --> 0:56:03.719
<v Speaker 2>them on the surface and then launching them makes very

0:56:03.760 --> 0:56:06.200
<v Speaker 2>little sense to me. But even still, you have to

0:56:06.200 --> 0:56:10.040
<v Speaker 2>face the issues of maintenance, of radiation, of cooling. These

0:56:10.040 --> 0:56:13.879
<v Speaker 2>are all solvable problems, but it makes it expensive and laborious,

0:56:14.400 --> 0:56:16.440
<v Speaker 2>and I don't think they have been solved yet. But

0:56:16.560 --> 0:56:19.560
<v Speaker 2>you know, SpaceX it's an amazing company and they catch

0:56:19.640 --> 0:56:22.360
<v Speaker 2>rockets with chopsticks, so let's not put anything past them.

0:56:22.400 --> 0:56:24.520
<v Speaker 1>All right, Well, we will have to keep an eye

0:56:24.600 --> 0:56:27.640
<v Speaker 1>on this as the years in the decades pass and

0:56:27.719 --> 0:56:29.800
<v Speaker 1>see what they do. And you know, in the meantime,

0:56:29.840 --> 0:56:32.520
<v Speaker 1>if you're interested in more information on what it's like

0:56:32.560 --> 0:56:35.520
<v Speaker 1>to live and work in space, a City on Mars

0:56:36.000 --> 0:56:38.439
<v Speaker 1>is a pretty great book to check out to learn

0:56:38.480 --> 0:56:39.120
<v Speaker 1>more about.

0:56:38.920 --> 0:56:42.040
<v Speaker 2>That, as is Becoming Martian by our friend Scott.

0:56:41.760 --> 0:56:44.880
<v Speaker 1>Solomon, which came out today, which is February seventeenth. You

0:56:44.880 --> 0:56:47.160
<v Speaker 1>won't be hearing this on February seventeenth, but you should

0:56:47.160 --> 0:56:50.200
<v Speaker 1>definitely check out Becoming Martian, and you should check out

0:56:50.200 --> 0:56:52.760
<v Speaker 1>the prior to episodes on which Scott Solomon was a guest.

0:56:53.280 --> 0:56:56.040
<v Speaker 2>And so, while we think there are challenges to building

0:56:56.080 --> 0:56:58.920
<v Speaker 2>a self sustaining colony on the Moon, it's not impossible

0:56:59.120 --> 0:57:01.319
<v Speaker 2>and it is worse of pushing, but we should be

0:57:01.440 --> 0:57:04.160
<v Speaker 2>realistic about when it's going to happen, yes.

0:57:04.000 --> 0:57:07.439
<v Speaker 1>And we should try to do it ethically. And I

0:57:07.520 --> 0:57:08.879
<v Speaker 1>will try not to be too much of a wet

0:57:08.880 --> 0:57:10.520
<v Speaker 1>blanket at this point. So we'll end the show. Now,

0:57:10.640 --> 0:57:21.160
<v Speaker 1>have a nice day. Daniel and Kelly's extraordinary Universe is

0:57:21.200 --> 0:57:24.200
<v Speaker 1>produced by iHeartRadio. We would love to hear from you,

0:57:24.440 --> 0:57:25.480
<v Speaker 1>We really would.

0:57:25.640 --> 0:57:28.400
<v Speaker 2>We want to know what questions you have about this

0:57:28.600 --> 0:57:30.240
<v Speaker 2>extraordinary universe.

0:57:30.360 --> 0:57:33.280
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0:57:33.280 --> 0:57:36.280
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0:57:36.320 --> 0:57:36.720
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0:57:37.000 --> 0:57:40.520
<v Speaker 2>We really mean it. We answer every message. Email us

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<v Speaker 2>at Questions at Danielankelly.

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<v Speaker 1>Dot org, or you can find us on social media.

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<v Speaker 1>We have accounts on x, Instagram, Blue Sky and on

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<v Speaker 1>all of those platforms. You can find us at D

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<v Speaker 1>and K Universe.

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<v Speaker 2>Don't be shy, write to us