1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

2
00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:14,880
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney along

3
00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,240
Speaker 2: with Tom Keene. Join us each day for insight from

4
00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:20,760
Speaker 2: the best in economics, geopolitics, finance, and investment. You can

5
00:00:20,800 --> 00:00:24,439
Speaker 2: also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg

6
00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:27,760
Speaker 2: Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings

7
00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:30,400
Speaker 2: from seven to ten Eastern Remark Global Headquarters in New

8
00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:33,720
Speaker 2: York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or

9
00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:36,760
Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on Bloomberg Radio,

10
00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:39,760
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. A huge

11
00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:43,360
Speaker 2: issue for market investors is what is this Federal Reserve

12
00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:45,560
Speaker 2: going to do? I mean, we started the year thinking

13
00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:48,400
Speaker 2: six rate cuts. If you look at WRP GO, that's

14
00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:49,879
Speaker 2: kind of what the market was dis Kenny. Now we're

15
00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:52,559
Speaker 2: kind of like three or four, I don't know. For

16
00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,280
Speaker 2: our next guest, he has an informed opinion. Rich Clarida,

17
00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:57,440
Speaker 2: former vice chair at the Federal Reserve. Now he's got

18
00:00:57,480 --> 00:00:59,680
Speaker 2: a paying job. He's a managing director of New York

19
00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:01,920
Speaker 2: office in pimco's Global Economic Advisor.

20
00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:05,080
Speaker 3: Rich, thanks so much for joining us here in studio.

21
00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:06,080
Speaker 4: Here ch Good to see you.

22
00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, what is your Federal Reserve going to do? And

23
00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:09,680
Speaker 3: when are they going to do it?

24
00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:12,759
Speaker 5: I've been doing other things for two years, so it's

25
00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:17,680
Speaker 5: not my FED anymore. I think they think they're done.

26
00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:20,720
Speaker 5: I think they think the next move is a cut,

27
00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:25,199
Speaker 5: and certainly in the recent press conference that the chair

28
00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:28,200
Speaker 5: did not really try to push away the idea that

29
00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:32,559
Speaker 5: they would start this summer. And so I think WORP

30
00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:34,640
Speaker 5: is more or less where I would be right now

31
00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:38,800
Speaker 5: as well. Three cuts, But I do think and hope

32
00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,760
Speaker 5: that they are data dependent, because the inflation data has

33
00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:44,959
Speaker 5: been mixed at best. So I think it makes sense

34
00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:48,440
Speaker 5: to start cutting now, but the pace and destination I

35
00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:52,480
Speaker 5: think should depend on the inflation data. I hope I've.

36
00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:53,520
Speaker 4: Been talking about this all morning.

37
00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:53,760
Speaker 3: Rich.

38
00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:55,760
Speaker 4: Great to see you, by the way, in terms of

39
00:01:55,800 --> 00:02:00,120
Speaker 4: the Baltimore Bridge collapse, and I understand overall you can

40
00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:02,200
Speaker 4: just go to a different port eventually, but in the

41
00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:06,120
Speaker 4: short term there could be an impact on disinflation for autos,

42
00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:10,080
Speaker 4: and I'm wondering if we see disinflation stop for durable

43
00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:14,080
Speaker 4: goods and goods stuff, does that change the data and

44
00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:16,560
Speaker 4: does it change or push back a cut?

45
00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,799
Speaker 5: Great question I think on that the crisp answer would

46
00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:26,480
Speaker 5: be no, for the simple reason that it's potentially a

47
00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,880
Speaker 5: big shock to auto prices, although I think other folks

48
00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:33,680
Speaker 5: think it could be attenuated, but I think the FED

49
00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:36,440
Speaker 5: would tend to and that would be good approach to

50
00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:40,160
Speaker 5: look through that. So it shouldn't change the Fed's one

51
00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:44,400
Speaker 5: or three year inflation picture materially about this tragedy in Baltimore,

52
00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,120
Speaker 5: and I think they would they would look through that

53
00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,560
Speaker 5: if that's the only thing going. The tricky thing, of course,

54
00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:53,200
Speaker 5: is that goods goods disinflation is a big part of

55
00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,320
Speaker 5: getting down to two percent eventually. It's been happening in

56
00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:59,320
Speaker 5: the last couple of years, but they need to be

57
00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:01,720
Speaker 5: looking at that more closely because there are other factors

58
00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:05,880
Speaker 5: pushing up goods prices, including supply chains and all reshoring

59
00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:08,160
Speaker 5: and on shoring and all that. So right now they'll

60
00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:10,720
Speaker 5: be getting a lot of help with with goods disinflation,

61
00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:12,720
Speaker 5: but they'll need to keep on top of that.

62
00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:14,920
Speaker 2: Which a lot of folks we talked to, whether they're

63
00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:20,160
Speaker 2: academics or practitioners, they say inflation is already whipped if

64
00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:22,600
Speaker 2: you look at the real time data, it's done. We're done.

65
00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:27,400
Speaker 2: Why isn't the Federal Reserve not moving now? And perhaps

66
00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:29,840
Speaker 2: because the Federal Reserve looks at data that's.

67
00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:31,520
Speaker 3: In the rear view mirror. How do you think about

68
00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:33,160
Speaker 3: that argument? How do you kind of come back to that?

69
00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:38,960
Speaker 5: Well, I think that if the Fed we're targeting the

70
00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:43,600
Speaker 5: CPI inflation index, which is probably more well understood than

71
00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:47,080
Speaker 5: the PCE. The CPI is running a point hotter now,

72
00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:49,320
Speaker 5: it's somewhere in the high threes maybe low force, So

73
00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:52,280
Speaker 5: we really wouldn't be talking about FED rates cut if

74
00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:57,000
Speaker 5: the Fed we're targeting a different index. Also, I think

75
00:03:57,040 --> 00:03:59,440
Speaker 5: the FED will tend to look at the drivers of inflation,

76
00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,240
Speaker 5: if you will, the trend in inflation, and a big

77
00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:05,520
Speaker 5: part of that is labor cost and wages. Wage inflation

78
00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:07,680
Speaker 5: has come down, but it's still a little bit hot.

79
00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,160
Speaker 5: So certainly, if I were still at the FED, which

80
00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:13,600
Speaker 5: I'm not, you know, I wouldn't be in the Mission

81
00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:16,599
Speaker 5: Accomplished camp. I would be encouraged by the data we

82
00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,560
Speaker 5: got in the second half of last year. And it's

83
00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:24,560
Speaker 5: been very, very great. As Governor Waller was saying two

84
00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:27,080
Speaker 5: years ago, that we've been able to disinflate without really

85
00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,640
Speaker 5: any pain in the labor market. So you know, knock

86
00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,240
Speaker 5: on wood that that continues. But but I don't. I

87
00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:34,600
Speaker 5: don't think if you look at broader measures of inflation

88
00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:36,159
Speaker 5: that were there yet.

89
00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:38,800
Speaker 4: Why did the FED miss the boat on inflation a

90
00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:41,479
Speaker 4: few years ago? And when they missed the boat, now.

91
00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:44,120
Speaker 5: Well I was I was there of course then, and

92
00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:48,640
Speaker 5: O one and Charter member of team Transitory, so you.

93
00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:52,200
Speaker 4: Were team transitory. Oh yeah, and everyone hated it, that

94
00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,440
Speaker 4: was the word. But yet that was true. Well it was.

95
00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:57,200
Speaker 5: It was in the FMC statement which I signed off on,

96
00:04:57,400 --> 00:04:59,320
Speaker 5: So I guess I didn't hate it at the time.

97
00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:03,359
Speaker 5: Up look, initially in the spring of spring and summer

98
00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:08,680
Speaker 5: of twenty twenty one, headline inflation was high, but it

99
00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:10,640
Speaker 5: was not really broad based. In fact, I remember at

100
00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:12,680
Speaker 5: one point saying to one of my colleagues, you know,

101
00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:15,720
Speaker 5: I'm not prepared to raise rates because used car prices

102
00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,520
Speaker 5: are up forty percent. But by the second half of

103
00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:22,719
Speaker 5: twenty twenty one, it didn't matter. Every inflation index was

104
00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:25,080
Speaker 5: going up and was very broad based. And so I

105
00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:30,240
Speaker 5: think I think the transitory story had had a confrontation

106
00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:33,880
Speaker 5: with reality, and the power fed pretty quickly, beginning in

107
00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:36,520
Speaker 5: the fall of twenty twenty one began to pivot to

108
00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:39,880
Speaker 5: tighter policy. So team Transitory was really in play, you know,

109
00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:42,840
Speaker 5: for maybe six or nine months, but the Fed moved

110
00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:44,599
Speaker 5: pretty quickly once the data changed.

111
00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:47,440
Speaker 2: And do you feel like the economy is in such

112
00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:50,159
Speaker 2: a position now that, again, we had some inflation data

113
00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:52,280
Speaker 2: over the last month or so that kind of suggested

114
00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:53,760
Speaker 2: to some people that.

115
00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:55,960
Speaker 3: Maybe inflation's not beaten down here.

116
00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:59,480
Speaker 2: So does it suggest that the Fed can in fact

117
00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:02,640
Speaker 2: way here and just kind of let the long and

118
00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:04,080
Speaker 2: variable lags play out.

119
00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,200
Speaker 5: I think that's I think that is certainly an option,

120
00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:10,719
Speaker 5: and I think that is a message the Chair was

121
00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:15,080
Speaker 5: conveying at the press conference at the last meeting. They

122
00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,560
Speaker 5: they think their policy is restrictive. So one option if

123
00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:21,280
Speaker 5: you think policy is restrictive, is just to delay the cuts.

124
00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,080
Speaker 5: And the longer you keep policy restrictive, the more the

125
00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:27,039
Speaker 5: lags will tend to will tend to kick in. But

126
00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,599
Speaker 5: they're also very cognizant of the fact that they're getting

127
00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:33,400
Speaker 5: some good news on the supply side. Labor force participations up,

128
00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:37,440
Speaker 5: productivity growth is up, and appropriately they don't want to

129
00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:40,200
Speaker 5: lean against that. So if more people are working and

130
00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:43,640
Speaker 5: they're more productive, you don't want to try to lean against.

131
00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:47,600
Speaker 6: That, rich What would be a word that you would

132
00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:51,200
Speaker 6: use to describe inflation now, like if it was because

133
00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:54,359
Speaker 6: you know, to some extent, transitory wasn't wrong, like for

134
00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:57,520
Speaker 6: goods prices, it was transitory, just the time frame of

135
00:06:57,520 --> 00:06:59,880
Speaker 6: transitory was challenging.

136
00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:01,599
Speaker 4: What's the word you would use?

137
00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:05,000
Speaker 5: I don't know if I have a word, I'd say

138
00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:07,560
Speaker 5: we're on the right path, but there is a rick

139
00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:10,920
Speaker 5: that the progress could stall. Maybe and the next time

140
00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,160
Speaker 5: I come, I can come condense that to one word.

141
00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:17,480
Speaker 4: Okay, Yeah, I'm gonna thinking about that too. Risky, risky, nerve.

142
00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:21,560
Speaker 5: Raggings, sticky, and stubborn is a possibility.

143
00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:25,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, Richie, you got your some advanced degrees.

144
00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,760
Speaker 2: It's someplace in Cambridge, Massachusetts. But the bottom line is

145
00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:32,160
Speaker 2: your University of Illinois, sweet sixteen and proud of it.

146
00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:33,840
Speaker 2: How do you feel about your Sweet sixteen?

147
00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:34,160
Speaker 3: A line?

148
00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:36,880
Speaker 5: Well, you know, I looked it up. It's been a

149
00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,760
Speaker 5: long time since my line I made the Sweet sixteen.

150
00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:43,560
Speaker 5: In fact, it was twenty years ago, which in itself

151
00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:46,120
Speaker 5: is pretty sad. Yeah, you got a root form. I

152
00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:47,920
Speaker 5: think when they did make it to the final four,

153
00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:50,440
Speaker 5: they played in North Carolina team that was better. So yeah,

154
00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:54,440
Speaker 5: Hope Springs Eternal. I graduated in nineteen seventy nine, so

155
00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,040
Speaker 5: it's been a long time since the line I have

156
00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:59,320
Speaker 5: been the center of attention in basketball.

157
00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:01,800
Speaker 2: You'll be rooting the on against Iowa State this time, right,

158
00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:03,880
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, all right, good stuff, all right, Richard Claiter,

159
00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:04,880
Speaker 2: I thank you so much for joining us.

160
00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:06,760
Speaker 3: Richer Clarter, a former vice shared in the Federal Reserve.

161
00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,560
Speaker 2: Let's go to market Ptelgi as the senior portfolio manager

162
00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:20,960
Speaker 2: Offspring Global Investments.

163
00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:22,840
Speaker 3: Margie, thanks so much for joining us here.

164
00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:25,080
Speaker 2: You know, I've got a market that on the S

165
00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:27,080
Speaker 2: and P five hundred's up, you know, kind of ten.

166
00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:27,600
Speaker 3: Percent this year.

167
00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:30,720
Speaker 2: We had this big, big move off of the October

168
00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:32,199
Speaker 2: lows of last year.

169
00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:33,760
Speaker 3: What do I do here?

170
00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:35,800
Speaker 2: Do I jump into this market? Do I just stick

171
00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:39,120
Speaker 2: with my two year treasury at four point six percent?

172
00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:40,000
Speaker 3: What do I do here?

173
00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:42,520
Speaker 7: Well? I think the main thing is to say, the

174
00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:45,760
Speaker 7: economies in great shape, and it looks as if it's

175
00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:50,079
Speaker 7: actually on the verge of slightly reaccelerating. A number of

176
00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:52,200
Speaker 7: other countries in the world also look as if they're

177
00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:54,760
Speaker 7: modestly accelerating. So that says you have to really stick

178
00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:57,880
Speaker 7: with equities and you know, look for the best sectors

179
00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:01,079
Speaker 7: and the best companies and not this garried off by

180
00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:02,600
Speaker 7: another recession scare.

181
00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:05,560
Speaker 4: So if the scenario that you just set up, Marguie

182
00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:08,079
Speaker 4: means that the FED maybe won't cut, does that then

183
00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:12,560
Speaker 4: weirdly disrupt the bullet scenario it just laid out well.

184
00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:14,840
Speaker 7: I think when you've looked at the economy, you've looked

185
00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:18,200
Speaker 7: at corporate profits now forever two years, and there are

186
00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:21,840
Speaker 7: very few companies that actually been sensitive to the changes

187
00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:25,240
Speaker 7: in the Federal reserve. Profit margins weren't squeezed when the

188
00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:28,720
Speaker 7: FED raise short rates by five percent points. And I

189
00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:30,760
Speaker 7: think if they cut by a quarter or don't cut

190
00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:32,880
Speaker 7: by a quarter or half, whatever, I think the I

191
00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:35,040
Speaker 7: wouldn't say the economy is impervious to it, but I

192
00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:38,840
Speaker 7: think the whole economy is much less sensitive to changes

193
00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:41,120
Speaker 7: on the part of federal reserve policy. I think that's

194
00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:44,720
Speaker 7: why the Feds are little flummis, because their actions don't

195
00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:46,800
Speaker 7: really seem to have the effects the effects in the

196
00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:49,000
Speaker 7: real economy that they thought they would see.

197
00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:51,720
Speaker 2: All right, So, given that backdrob Margie, are there certain

198
00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:55,280
Speaker 2: sectors that you think are attractive here. I mean, of course,

199
00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:58,520
Speaker 2: you know alex Steel has been long the Magnix's Magnificent

200
00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:00,960
Speaker 2: seven all along, so Jesus, Clip and Coupont here. But

201
00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:02,920
Speaker 2: how about the rest of us, So maybe are still

202
00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:04,079
Speaker 2: looking for some opportunities.

203
00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:07,520
Speaker 7: Well, I think if you look at what companies have

204
00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:11,120
Speaker 7: sustainable growth, and that's still is technology. That still is

205
00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:13,599
Speaker 7: some of the very largest tech firms, I think they

206
00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:17,439
Speaker 7: still have their momentum place and they'll continue to be winners.

207
00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:19,679
Speaker 7: I think that we see a number of companies in

208
00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:23,360
Speaker 7: the industrial space that are benefiting from higher capital expenditures

209
00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:27,520
Speaker 7: from shoring. What just happened in Baltimore is I think

210
00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:30,440
Speaker 7: one more straw on the camel's back that says companies

211
00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:35,640
Speaker 7: may be rethinking having overseas operations and bring more production home.

212
00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:38,319
Speaker 7: And we also have a lot of capital expenditures for

213
00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:43,600
Speaker 7: the whole economy to improve the power grid, to improve infrastructure,

214
00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:46,840
Speaker 7: and I think those too will also help to keep

215
00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:49,600
Speaker 7: the economy going. In the industrial space, we think in

216
00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:52,079
Speaker 7: healthcare it's mixed, but we think some companies have gotten

217
00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:55,480
Speaker 7: through COVID aren't too dependent on China for sales, and

218
00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:58,679
Speaker 7: they should also do well. They can continue to think

219
00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:01,120
Speaker 7: up new products that will benefit the healthcare system.

220
00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:03,360
Speaker 4: I love that you brought up the industrial story and

221
00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:06,600
Speaker 4: all the public money kind of flowing in. The getting

222
00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:10,080
Speaker 4: private capital in has been increasingly difficult and sort of

223
00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:13,600
Speaker 4: squaring that squaring that gap, I don't know sure filling

224
00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:16,760
Speaker 4: that hole, it can be very tricky. Plus, companies that

225
00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:19,800
Speaker 4: seem to have order books, they're not booking the revenue

226
00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:21,679
Speaker 4: like it's not as fast as we think it is.

227
00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:24,000
Speaker 4: How do you play something like that. You're in like

228
00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:27,760
Speaker 4: a structural shift, but it's still in a cyclical sector.

229
00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:31,720
Speaker 7: Yes, well, that's right, because I think companies aren't just

230
00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:34,959
Speaker 7: madly spending money on hope they'll get a return. I

231
00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:38,559
Speaker 7: think they're being very prudent in where they make capital expenditures.

232
00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:42,240
Speaker 7: And it's not the whole economy. It's particularly those sectors

233
00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:45,360
Speaker 7: that we all put together a good return again, such

234
00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:49,200
Speaker 7: as technology. Certain parts of the power market looks as

235
00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:52,200
Speaker 7: if suddenly people realize that the whole economy is rather

236
00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:57,400
Speaker 7: short on power to run the economy. And also in

237
00:11:57,440 --> 00:11:59,720
Speaker 7: the energy space. I think we've seen tom be pretty

238
00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,920
Speaker 7: dis plinned on capital expenditures. But I think we'll continue

239
00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:07,080
Speaker 7: to see energy capbax and so for those sectors that

240
00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:11,040
Speaker 7: need capacs that can justify good return, I think we'll

241
00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:12,880
Speaker 7: continue to see capital expenditures.

242
00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:15,360
Speaker 4: And Paul to your to this point, do you know

243
00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:17,600
Speaker 4: what the third best performing stock in the S and

244
00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,800
Speaker 4: P is this quarter? No Constellation Energy, and it's a

245
00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:24,520
Speaker 4: power company behind super Micro and in Nvidia. I like

246
00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:26,160
Speaker 4: that fifty eight percent.

247
00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:28,760
Speaker 3: You're all over this theme. That is for sure. Hey,

248
00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:31,160
Speaker 3: marg we've had the stock market rally twenty five percent

249
00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:32,760
Speaker 3: off of those late October lows.

250
00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:35,280
Speaker 2: Here do I have to start making I to start

251
00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:37,960
Speaker 2: calling in the question valuation in this market?

252
00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:41,560
Speaker 7: Well, you know, it's hard to say how do you

253
00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:45,160
Speaker 7: value something. Typically people look at say the price earnings

254
00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:48,400
Speaker 7: ratio compared to say the ten year treasuries or something

255
00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:51,359
Speaker 7: like that for whether something's overvalued or undervalued.

256
00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:53,000
Speaker 3: But I think two things.

257
00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:56,120
Speaker 7: I think that there's really no connection of the stock

258
00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:59,520
Speaker 7: price and its price earnings ratio. It really comes down

259
00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:03,080
Speaker 7: doing the expectations of future earnings. And secondly, if you

260
00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:06,640
Speaker 7: look at say the average price earnings ratio or digit

261
00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,280
Speaker 7: in yield to treasuries, I think you may be taking

262
00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:12,280
Speaker 7: a little off course because I think that with so

263
00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,560
Speaker 7: much treasure to supply, we're likely to see treasure yields

264
00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,240
Speaker 7: be somewhat higher than we might have thought. For where

265
00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:20,800
Speaker 7: inflation is where the growth of the economy is. So

266
00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:22,880
Speaker 7: that's why I think it's better to just look companies

267
00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:26,240
Speaker 7: that have sustainable earnings and say, let the market figure

268
00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:27,960
Speaker 7: out if it should be a pe of twenty five

269
00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:30,760
Speaker 7: or thirty or thirty five, and just buy where we

270
00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:32,040
Speaker 7: see sustainable growth.

271
00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:33,880
Speaker 4: Mark you before I let you go. We need to

272
00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:36,240
Speaker 4: channel Tom Keene because you probably been in love with

273
00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:39,600
Speaker 4: this anyway, dollar yen one fifty one, spot oh nine.

274
00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:42,000
Speaker 4: What is the trade here?

275
00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:46,920
Speaker 7: Well, we all have our biases. I think US is best.

276
00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:50,120
Speaker 7: I continue to see US based companies that have tremendous

277
00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:53,880
Speaker 7: growth opportunities that really are greater than what I see

278
00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:57,240
Speaker 7: in other parts of the world. So I really couldn't

279
00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:01,240
Speaker 7: comment on Japan. I'm glad to see their creeping into

280
00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,120
Speaker 7: positive interest rate territory. I think it's a great country,

281
00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:08,080
Speaker 7: a very terrific economy, But I think US has just

282
00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:09,239
Speaker 7: as many opportunities.

283
00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:11,760
Speaker 3: Saw stick with us, all right, Margie, thank you so

284
00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:12,600
Speaker 3: much for joining us.

285
00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:17,400
Speaker 2: As always, margare Vittel senior portfolio manager Offspring Global Investments.

286
00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:18,319
Speaker 3: I appreciate that.

287
00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:24,880
Speaker 2: Joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studios. Marvin Low,

288
00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:28,640
Speaker 2: he's a senior strategist Global Macro for this little shop

289
00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,320
Speaker 2: up in Baltimore known as State Street, which was a

290
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:33,400
Speaker 2: go to meeting for me when I was a Seales

291
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:35,360
Speaker 2: sign anles had to go to the good folks Larry

292
00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,200
Speaker 2: Haveerty at State Street and all the good folks there, Marvin,

293
00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:42,160
Speaker 2: I guess the Fitter Reserve over the last week or

294
00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:45,160
Speaker 2: so and other central banks have kind of said, yeah,

295
00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:47,960
Speaker 2: we're mindful of inflation out there, but we still think

296
00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:49,760
Speaker 2: we can cut rates.

297
00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:51,600
Speaker 3: Is that kind of your view here as we look forward?

298
00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,200
Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, for sure. I mean the signaling couldn't have

299
00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:58,320
Speaker 8: been stronger. Everyone's lining up to begin in June, and

300
00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:01,760
Speaker 8: you know that's a fairly aggressive Dubvish impulse for the

301
00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:02,640
Speaker 8: market to absorb.

302
00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,600
Speaker 4: So I mentioned this in the last hour, but Boomberg

303
00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:08,400
Speaker 4: Economics talked about the bridge and the FED and inflation,

304
00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:11,400
Speaker 4: and their hypothesis is that not that necessarily if the

305
00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:13,600
Speaker 4: bridge is closed for a while, it will affect inflation.

306
00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,200
Speaker 4: But then in terms of auto disinflation that will slow

307
00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:20,360
Speaker 4: and that that could actually push back the timing of

308
00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,960
Speaker 4: a beed cut. I guess the question is do you agree?

309
00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:24,320
Speaker 4: And doesn't matter?

310
00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:27,400
Speaker 8: You know what. It ultimately doesn't matter because it will

311
00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,680
Speaker 8: be temporary, but it does make data at a very

312
00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:34,960
Speaker 8: important part of the process a little bit harder to analyze.

313
00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,760
Speaker 8: Goods disinflation has been so important for this inflation story over.

314
00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:40,960
Speaker 8: You know, let's say the last four months where the

315
00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:43,800
Speaker 8: end of last year drove a lot of the optimism

316
00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:45,440
Speaker 8: and then all of a sudden when we get when

317
00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:49,000
Speaker 8: we got less goods disinflation in January and February, all

318
00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:51,560
Speaker 8: of a sudden, everyone's worried about inflation again. So you know,

319
00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:56,000
Speaker 8: we've got access to some online indicators around inflation, and

320
00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,080
Speaker 8: they're showing a little bit more of a little bit

321
00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:02,280
Speaker 8: more perkiness as we go even into March into the

322
00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:03,000
Speaker 8: beginning of April.

323
00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:07,320
Speaker 2: So given that background, again we have inflation is still there,

324
00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:09,920
Speaker 2: although it's come down significantly from its peaks. We all

325
00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,160
Speaker 2: know that what do we do in a fixed income

326
00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:12,640
Speaker 2: space here?

327
00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:13,680
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know.

328
00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:15,360
Speaker 2: I can just go buy a tow year treasury four

329
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,200
Speaker 2: point six percent and go kick back and maybe go

330
00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:20,880
Speaker 2: skiing here. Forget some spring skiing in here. What do

331
00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:22,320
Speaker 2: I do here in a fixed income space?

332
00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,560
Speaker 8: Yeah, for sure. I mean I continue to like the

333
00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:28,320
Speaker 8: shorter end of the curve exactly based on the reason

334
00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:31,160
Speaker 8: that that you mentioned. You could lock in those yields

335
00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:34,200
Speaker 8: if that's within that's within your time horizon. We want

336
00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:35,840
Speaker 8: to go skiing for a lot more than two years, though,

337
00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:37,160
Speaker 8: so we got to figure out. So we got to

338
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:38,840
Speaker 8: figure out what to do a little bit further out

339
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:41,240
Speaker 8: the curve. You know, kind of locking in some of

340
00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:44,480
Speaker 8: the yields, particularly in the corporate space, has been a

341
00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:48,240
Speaker 8: very attractive trade. Spreads are tight, you know, that makes

342
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,960
Speaker 8: a challenge. But if you're just clipping those coupons, you know,

343
00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:53,000
Speaker 8: you could lock in those yields for a five to

344
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:54,920
Speaker 8: seven year period and let's hope we're still skiing after

345
00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:55,280
Speaker 8: that too.

346
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,800
Speaker 4: So that's a yield plate, not a price appreciation play

347
00:16:57,880 --> 00:16:58,800
Speaker 4: or anything like that. It is.

348
00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,640
Speaker 8: It definitely is more of a total return type of environment.

349
00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:05,359
Speaker 8: If you're a fund manager and you're managing to benchmarks

350
00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,520
Speaker 8: and you're trying to look for spread compression, that becomes

351
00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:08,159
Speaker 8: a bit harder.

352
00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:09,879
Speaker 4: So for me, I think we've talked about this, that

353
00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,400
Speaker 4: I had money sitting in a money market fund. I'm

354
00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:14,680
Speaker 4: the kind of gallon at a mattress. I'm the kind

355
00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:16,960
Speaker 4: of gall that would have like gold and soup cans

356
00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:19,600
Speaker 4: under her bed. Just deffice it to say, I'm very

357
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,760
Speaker 4: risk averse, and I'm wondering, like what I do with

358
00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:25,480
Speaker 4: that money market fund and that money under the bed,

359
00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:28,320
Speaker 4: Like do I just keep it there? But does that

360
00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,639
Speaker 4: belong to somewhere else? And I sort of feel like

361
00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:33,000
Speaker 4: we don't know yet. We thought it was a stock thing.

362
00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:33,479
Speaker 4: Maybe not.

363
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,239
Speaker 8: You know, it depends on how much money you've got

364
00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:38,520
Speaker 8: on the mattress. For sure. It shouldn't all be there,

365
00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:43,600
Speaker 8: all of it. You know, I still like the short

366
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 8: end of the curve. You know, I haven't extended that

367
00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:48,679
Speaker 8: much because higher for longer means that we're probably going

368
00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:51,159
Speaker 8: to be able to collect, you know, a decent money

369
00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:54,920
Speaker 8: market rate, you know, potentially to the end of this year,

370
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,199
Speaker 8: which is what a lot of experts did not expect.

371
00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:59,280
Speaker 8: I'm kind of having said that, you know, you do

372
00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:01,800
Speaker 8: have to get to some of the riskier parts of

373
00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:04,320
Speaker 8: the curve. Things are expensive, But you know, I still

374
00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:06,920
Speaker 8: think that there's tailwind for those risks for those risk assets.

375
00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:09,760
Speaker 2: You know, we look at the fixed income space in

376
00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:12,199
Speaker 2: twenty twenty three, that kind of surprised me that the

377
00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 2: best performing fixed income.

378
00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:15,720
Speaker 3: Market was a high yield.

379
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,560
Speaker 2: Double digit gains in the highield market last year, and

380
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,919
Speaker 2: with all the talk of recession, I was surprised that

381
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,960
Speaker 2: hyield did so well. What do you think about taking

382
00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:25,520
Speaker 2: some of that type of credit.

383
00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:26,120
Speaker 3: Risk these days?

384
00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:29,320
Speaker 8: You know what highield is expensive for sure. It is

385
00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 8: a credit market. So you know, if you're comfortable picking

386
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:36,440
Speaker 8: those credits within the double B space, you know, the

387
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:40,760
Speaker 8: default rates around that type of environment are not overly penal,

388
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:43,400
Speaker 8: but you have to pick those credits overall. If you're

389
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,879
Speaker 8: kind of buying the broader index, you know, be aware

390
00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,920
Speaker 8: that there's still is risk that lurks with this inverted

391
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,480
Speaker 8: yield curve and a higher for longer kind of fed

392
00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:52,520
Speaker 8: as we go into next year.

393
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:54,359
Speaker 4: Okay, So if I take some of that money out

394
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,080
Speaker 4: of the money market fund, and I don't want to

395
00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:57,359
Speaker 4: put it in the two year but I want to

396
00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:58,960
Speaker 4: put it in the equity market. Am I putting it

397
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:00,840
Speaker 4: in a video? Or am I putting in energy? Or

398
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,720
Speaker 4: am I putting it in utilities. When do you need it?

399
00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,480
Speaker 8: That's that that's the first question I do like, I.

400
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,120
Speaker 4: Don't know, forty fifty years when I retire.

401
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:13,680
Speaker 8: Then then you're continuing to buy the US equity markets.

402
00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:18,119
Speaker 8: And I've always liked growth. I've always felt that US investors,

403
00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,800
Speaker 8: the demand for growth globally is something that puts US

404
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:24,439
Speaker 8: investors in a in a good position.

405
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:26,320
Speaker 3: All Right, Marvin, thank you so much for joining us.

406
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,840
Speaker 2: Marvin Low, He's a senior strategist Global Macro for State Street.

407
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,200
Speaker 2: All Right, your daily look at the front pages around

408
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,960
Speaker 2: the world at Leasta Matteo the newspapers.

409
00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:46,399
Speaker 3: What do you have for us today?

410
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,480
Speaker 1: Well, we've been talking about the collision at the Baltimore Bridge.

411
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:51,919
Speaker 1: I want to start here because apparently there's been some

412
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:55,920
Speaker 1: troubled history with that particular ship. So this is according

413
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,199
Speaker 1: to vessel Finder. It was built in twenty fifteen, right,

414
00:19:58,200 --> 00:19:59,880
Speaker 1: but it hit a stone wall berth at the port

415
00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 1: of Antwerp in Belgium in twenty sixteen, so it suffered

416
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,480
Speaker 1: some damage there, but it still remained afloat.

417
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:06,680
Speaker 3: It was repaired.

418
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 1: The Washington Post says that that ship it was sold

419
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:13,440
Speaker 1: to Singamore based Grace ocean after the accident, but there's

420
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:16,720
Speaker 1: been different questions about mechanical, you know, questions concerning it.

421
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,200
Speaker 1: Last June, it did a safety inspection have found issues

422
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 1: that were related to some of the gauges that related

423
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,639
Speaker 1: to the ship's propulsion, which we know that was a

424
00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,199
Speaker 1: factor in the crash as well. But it's still not

425
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 1: clear what exactly.

426
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 3: Those issues were.

427
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:30,959
Speaker 1: But it's still you know, because we're having all these

428
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:34,159
Speaker 1: questions about what actually caused you know, the collision at

429
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:35,880
Speaker 1: the bridge. So these are just some things that came

430
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 1: up as far as the history of the ship. So

431
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 1: some questions behind it.

432
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wonder if some you know, I'm not a

433
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 2: big seafarer person here, but there I wonder if people

434
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,359
Speaker 2: are saying, like, are certain ships kind of cursed. I

435
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,160
Speaker 2: don't know if that's a thing if you're a mariner here, but.

436
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 4: If you're superstitious, you know, So there's that. But I

437
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 4: also feel like, not only there's certain ships, but I

438
00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 4: think you could pick apart anything. You go to any ship,

439
00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:05,440
Speaker 4: and you could find some stuff that could be improved. Right.

440
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 4: You can also ask the question why did the bridge

441
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 4: crumble so fast? Like I read a report that maybe

442
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 4: the supports needed to be updated. They weren't as thick

443
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 4: as they could be. So I think it's gonna be

444
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:15,840
Speaker 4: one of those things.

445
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 2: And I did hear just on a radio yesterday report

446
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 2: the gentleman who designed the bridge saying the ship actually

447
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,800
Speaker 2: hit the at the weakest point. Right, So there's but

448
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 2: that it did come down very very quickly. So again,

449
00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 2: Katie Lines for Bloomberg Television. She is in Baltimore.

450
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,919
Speaker 3: Wolf continued coverage from Kaylee throughout the morning.

451
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 1: All right, so the next one we have from The

452
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:40,199
Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal. NBC Universal's Peacack streaming service is going

453
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:43,400
Speaker 1: to be the exclusive platform for the NFL's opening week.

454
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 1: It's a Friday game in Brazil featuring the Philadelphia Eagles. Now,

455
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 1: this is the first game in South America. But the

456
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 1: NFL also said that Amazon's Prime video streaming service they

457
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,160
Speaker 1: landed the rights for an exclusive streaming playoff game during

458
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,919
Speaker 1: the upcoming twenty twenty four to twenty five season. But

459
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,880
Speaker 1: the league is also scheduling a game on Christmas Day.

460
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,439
Speaker 4: So all this together it brings up two things.

461
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 1: It shows, yes, it shows at least yeah, at least

462
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 1: at least so it shows that the league leaning towards

463
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 1: streaming to get that younger audience. So that's one round,

464
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 1: and then the other route is that you have the

465
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 1: Brazil game on Friday, you have the Christmas Day which

466
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 1: is actually on a Wednesday. So is the NFL moving

467
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 1: away from the traditional Sunday game which you know everybody

468
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,639
Speaker 1: is always you know, used to, you know, Sunday night football.

469
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 4: Guys, guys, is this really the NBC Story of the

470
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:37,639
Speaker 4: morning or is it? Roni McDaniel's right, that was a

471
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,679
Speaker 4: fast hire. She's that was a fast four day thing.

472
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,119
Speaker 4: I mean, that's great sports. They stream, they do stuff whatever.

473
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,879
Speaker 4: But Roni McDaniels, I know, I also appreciate it, and

474
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 4: I hope everyone's listening. Rich This is for you. Is

475
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 4: the New York Times led with it shows the power

476
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 4: of talent. Talent, we like this idea.

477
00:22:56,400 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, the talent came out against her, and.

478
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 4: Then the rhetoric at least sometimes was like, hey, it

479
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 4: just shows the power of the talent if you choose

480
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 4: to see it. So you know, we choose to see it.

481
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 3: The Venture Travel I didn't like that.

482
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 1: Oh yes, Adventure Travel. Okay, so that's the next definitely not.

483
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 4: I know, you like to sit on the beach with

484
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 4: the cocktail.

485
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 1: Adventure travel not just for the young, apparently a lot

486
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 1: more older folks. It's the ages have risen over the

487
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 1: past few years. They're going on bike tours. We're talking

488
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 1: about fifty six hundred miles. Okay, we're talking hiking the

489
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:32,640
Speaker 1: Appalachian Trails.

490
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 3: Surfing.

491
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:37,199
Speaker 1: You might like that one policy, But the reason for

492
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,199
Speaker 1: this is because they're saying there's better gear, there's more accommodations.

493
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 1: Right the fifty five plus crowd, they've traveled more than

494
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:46,399
Speaker 1: their parents and grandparents have, so they've done the Rome, Paris.

495
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 1: Now they want to go more extreme, you know, and

496
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 1: they have the time and the money.

497
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 4: So those are the thing we're doing.

498
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 2: What our new plan is in like September of every year,

499
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 2: we're gonna do it international trips. Of the first one

500
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 2: is this September, going to Ireland. But it's a tour

501
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 2: and we're kind of doing.

502
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 4: The biking kind of hiking biking.

503
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, you know, hiking to the pub

504
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 2: in each to go to is probably it. My son

505
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 2: is on a surfing trip up and down the California

506
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 2: coast for his spring break with the Outdoors Club.

507
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 3: At his university.

508
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 2: So he's surfing all the big breaks in California and

509
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 2: hopefully it'll survive.

510
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 3: I'm not adventure travel, Polase, here's.

511
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 2: My adventure travel on the New York City subway twice

512
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 2: a day. That's my that's my adventure travel.

513
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:30,199
Speaker 4: That's not at all inaccurate.

514
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 3: That's exactly right. So I mean, you know, you're right.

515
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 3: People are living longer.

516
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 2: Yes, and we got the fuck let's travel now all

517
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 2: we can.

518
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 3: Well, you did the ski trip. That was a little

519
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 3: bit stress everything.

520
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 2: I've been with skiing since since every but we decided,

521
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 2: you know, kind of we're going to each September, we're going.

522
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 3: To do something.

523
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 4: But we're not going to be like you know, we're

524
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 4: not an adventure No, it's is not sitting on the

525
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 4: beach thing. It's just something different.

526
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 3: Right, But there gotta be a four seasons of off

527
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 3: somewhere along the line.

528
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 4: It's so true. I think my next big trouble be

529
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 4: is so far. Sorry but that that that's just with

530
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 4: my kid because she loves animals so much. But I

531
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 4: think it's to be a little bit older. But that

532
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 4: will be what we're working for.

533
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 3: I love that.

534
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:12,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I'll kick your hair.

535
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 3: Say, where did Lisa get the story?

536
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:15,479
Speaker 1: The new posts?

537
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 3: I love the stories.

538
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 1: Mike ties and we all know he's been selling edibles, right,

539
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 1: but this one is going to be shaped like a

540
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 1: chewed ear. So it's a callback, you know, to Iron

541
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 1: Mike's heavyweight showdown with Evander Holyfield.

542
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 3: You can get him in New York.

543
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 1: Apparently they're selling at certain places. They've already had strained

544
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 1: stars over in Farmingdale Housing Works, in Granite's Village, Grow

545
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 1: Together in Brooklyn. Those are some of the places that

546
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 1: already have them.

547
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 4: But they're selling like hotcakes. People are ready for it.

548
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 3: They're hyped up.

549
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 1: You know, he has that comeback fight against Jake Paul

550
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 1: in July.

551
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 4: So why do we not like this market?

552
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 8: Really?

553
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 4: You got to respect the marketing, even if you're not

554
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 4: going to go eat an ear. They don't look that bad.

555
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 4: I mean they look they look like one of those

556
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 4: like like what I'm making, like a circular thing or

557
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,120
Speaker 4: like it's like a rope. It's like a gummy rope

558
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 4: or some gummy rope.

559
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 1: Okay, like a lasso, yeah exactly, Okay, well yeah, but no,

560
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,360
Speaker 1: it's a great marketing pro Yeah.

561
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 2: Mike Texan stays on the front pages all the time.

562
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 2: Repect that he is always kind of in play there,

563
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,120
Speaker 2: either it's movies or doing all kinds of crazy.

564
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 4: Until that Jake Paul fight. Will get back when that

565
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 4: again July.

566
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:25,120
Speaker 3: And who's Jake Paul?

567
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 1: Big YouTuber, big big YouTuber.

568
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 4: But he's young, right, But he's.

569
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:30,439
Speaker 1: Young, he's like almost half his age.

570
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,119
Speaker 4: And this is streaming on Netflix. Am I totally making

571
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:34,439
Speaker 4: that up?

572
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 2: No?

573
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 4: I think you're right. I think you're right.

574
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 1: And this goes back, Yeah, streaming, Yes, the Netflix Sports streaming, Yes.

575
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 3: Yeah they do. Yeah, so we'll have to see all right.

576
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 2: So and it kind of goes back to your first

577
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 2: story about you know, the NBC Universal peaks streaming in

578
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,400
Speaker 2: the NFL and everything's going streaming, kids, so you better

579
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 2: get ready for that.

580
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 3: All right. That was Lisa Matteo with the newspaper wrap up.

581
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:57,959
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best economics, geopolitics, finance,

582
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 2: and investment. You can also watch the live on YouTube.

583
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 2: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the

584
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 2: show weekday mornings from seven to ten Eastern from our

585
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 2: global headquarters in New York City.

586
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 3: Subscribe to the.

587
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,439
Speaker 2: Podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and

588
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 2: as always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and The

589
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:16,879
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business.

590
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 4: Apple