Speaker 1: That's your looking down field touchdown, Miami quar run. What
Speaker 1: is up? Dolphins? And welcome to the Drive Time Podcast,
Speaker 1: part of the Miami Dolphins podcast network, covering your team,
Speaker 1: your Miami Dolphins. How's it going everybody? It is a Thursday,
Speaker 1: the start of week four in the National Football League.
Speaker 1: I am your host, Travis Wingfield, and as always I
Speaker 1: am here to bring you your daily dose of Miami
Speaker 1: Dolphins football. And on today's show will look into the
Speaker 1: Dolphins Colts matchup as in depth as you're gonna find
Speaker 1: on a podcast, written story, or otherwise anywhere out there.
Speaker 1: We're gonna look at areas of opportunity, the challenges the
Speaker 1: Colts present, position by position matchups, the Dolphins will win
Speaker 1: if and the Colts will win if, as well as
Speaker 1: three Keys of the Game, and so so much more
Speaker 1: from the Baptist Health Studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex.
Speaker 1: This is the Drive Time Podcast comes all about the
Speaker 1: life of Don Shula Saturday at four thirty at hard
Speaker 1: Rock Stadium. The free event is open to the public
Speaker 1: and will feature remarks from the Shula family, with a
Speaker 1: panel of discussions from several Dolphins alumni. Attending fans will
Speaker 1: also receive a special commemorative Don Shula three forty seven patch,
Speaker 1: which of course signifies the three forty seven all time
Speaker 1: leading wins by a head coach of the National Football League.
Speaker 1: Registration is now open at Dolphins dot com slash Don Shula.
Speaker 1: And who did Don Shula coach for the majority of
Speaker 1: his career? Well, the greatest football team and the Indianapolis
Speaker 1: Colts or the Baltimore Colts, I suppose, But now indeed,
Speaker 1: and let's go ahead and start there as we do
Speaker 1: weekly with the preview and a quick overview of the
Speaker 1: incoming opponent for the Miami Dolphins. And I've long found
Speaker 1: the Colts one of the more interesting studies since Frank
Speaker 1: Reich's arrival there in Indianapolis. And that really co insides
Speaker 1: with Chris Ballard, who has built one of the best
Speaker 1: rosters top to bottom in the National Football League over
Speaker 1: the past three years. But that's where the intrigue really
Speaker 1: comes into me. In the quarterback position. Since Andrew lux retirement,
Speaker 1: they've been stuck in that unenviable position of having a
Speaker 1: strong roster without their long term definitive answer at the position,
Speaker 1: which then forced their hand towards some unconventional paths to
Speaker 1: feeling that quarterback position. Like to go out last year
Speaker 1: and to get Philip Rivers. I love that. That was
Speaker 1: I thought their best possible option in that season to
Speaker 1: put themselves in position to contend for a deep playoff run.
Speaker 1: And they got to the playoffs and they probably should
Speaker 1: have won that game, and Rivers played really well in
Speaker 1: that game, just couldn't quite capitalize on some of the
Speaker 1: Bill's mistakes and their own opportunities in that contest. Then
Speaker 1: this year, again not really in position to make a
Speaker 1: move into striking distance from one of the top quarterbacks
Speaker 1: in this quarterback heavy draft class of one, so they
Speaker 1: go the veteran route once more and repair Frank Reich
Speaker 1: and Carson Wentz and that magical season where he was
Speaker 1: the m v P of the league for my money,
Speaker 1: before tearing up the knee in that Rams game in
Speaker 1: like week fourteen, and then we all know what happened
Speaker 1: with Nick Foles and that Eagles team from there with
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, and we'll swing back into the quarterback
Speaker 1: position there with Wentz. But first I think it's important
Speaker 1: to address their injury situation because this is a very
Speaker 1: banged up Colts team. Right now, as the injury report
Speaker 1: came out late on Wednesday afternoon and taking a look
Speaker 1: at Miami's Will Fuller was not at practice on the
Speaker 1: Wednesday with a shoulder and elbow injury that he sustained
Speaker 1: last week. He missed practice. Jerome Baker and Michael Dieter
Speaker 1: both were limited participants in Wednesday's practice, while Xavien Howard,
Speaker 1: Brandon Jones, and DeVante Parker were on the injury report
Speaker 1: but full participants at Wednesday's practice. For the Colts, three
Speaker 1: players were limited. They are guard my Mark Glowinski, running
Speaker 1: back Jonathan Taylor, and quarterback Carson Wentz. But a handful
Speaker 1: of players one to three, four, five, six, seven, eight
Speaker 1: nine did not participate in Wednesday's practice. Jack Doyle, the
Speaker 1: tight end, tackle Eric Fisher, linebacker Darrius Leonard, guard Quentin Nelson,
Speaker 1: defensive end Quitty Pay, tackle Brandon Smith, safety Carry Willis,
Speaker 1: defensive tackle Antoine Woods, and cornerback Rock your sin Now.
Speaker 1: Quittin Nelson isn't just the best left Garden football He's
Speaker 1: not even just the best offensive lineman in the league.
Speaker 1: He's one of the best overall players pound for pound,
Speaker 1: regardless of position in the sport, and how often can
Speaker 1: you say that about a guard. He's just not normal.
Speaker 1: But he was carded off last week and Frank Reich
Speaker 1: says it's not looking good for him to return this week.
Speaker 1: And he also mentioned that Wentz would be limited at
Speaker 1: Wednesday's practice after a pair of ankle injuries that he
Speaker 1: played through a week ago against the Titans. And we'll
Speaker 1: talk about the performance he had in that game with
Speaker 1: those two bum ankles. Quitty Pay very impressive rookie off
Speaker 1: the edge for them. He missed the Titans game with
Speaker 1: a hamstring injury. Zach Keefer reports he's on the Colts
Speaker 1: beat that he and safety Carry Willis and cornerback Rock
Speaker 1: your Sin are all going to be monitored as the
Speaker 1: week goes along and they'll make it a decision, of course,
Speaker 1: on Friday about their game status. Is Quarterback Xavier Rohays
Speaker 1: played last week, but they expect him to be out
Speaker 1: there this week. He was not on that report we
Speaker 1: just mentioned we talked about. Right tackle Brandon Smith did
Speaker 1: not practice Wednesday either, and receiver type T Y Hilton
Speaker 1: is still out and will not come off the injury
Speaker 1: reserve this week for the Colts. So a very banged
Speaker 1: up Colts team, but they certainly have a deep roster,
Speaker 1: are very very well coached, in fact, one of the
Speaker 1: most I think one of the best coaching staffs in
Speaker 1: the league with Frank Reich and Marcus Brady and Matt
Speaker 1: eber Fleus. So with that, we jump in to the
Speaker 1: position by position breakdowns and we start here with the
Speaker 1: Colts quarterback as we do the oppositions quarterback against the
Speaker 1: Dolphins safeties, and Carson Wentz has been one of the
Speaker 1: trickiest evaluations at the position for my personal for me.
Speaker 1: For me, I didn't like his game coming out. I
Speaker 1: thought his rookie year was an indicator of that evaluation.
Speaker 1: He missed way too many layups that year, and that
Speaker 1: was actually the year that I charted quarterbacks for third
Speaker 1: and ten dot Com for the first time, and I
Speaker 1: linked it back to mechanical issues in the lower half.
Speaker 1: And then comes around and he jumps up my grading
Speaker 1: charts and also kind of fixes that. I'm like, all right,
Speaker 1: I didn't know what the hell I was talking about
Speaker 1: with this player because he looks like a bona fide superstar.
Speaker 1: Then he has a tough bounce back season after the
Speaker 1: injury and then twenty nineteen basically carries a skill set
Speaker 1: of players that's made up of mostly practice squad players,
Speaker 1: Like all the guys contributing late in that season, we're
Speaker 1: call ups or free agent signings. Like greg Ward was
Speaker 1: a college quarterback turn pro receiver, and he was making
Speaker 1: big catches for that team down the stretch and the
Speaker 1: playoffs in nineteen and then it completely falls apart in
Speaker 1: largely going back to some of the mechanical flaws with
Speaker 1: the base in terms of how he sets up to
Speaker 1: the football. You'd see his feet widened. That's never a
Speaker 1: good thing. And I likened it to in baseball. You're
Speaker 1: at the plate, you overstride for a pitch and you realize,
Speaker 1: oh no, that's a change up, not a fastball. I'm
Speaker 1: out over my skis. I've now got no power to
Speaker 1: generate through my hips through my lower half off, and
Speaker 1: I can't get through the zone with any sort of
Speaker 1: strength or power. It's awfully tough to do, and chances
Speaker 1: of the chances that all your mechanics of the swing
Speaker 1: are gonna be in line are slim and none. Like
Speaker 1: your back shoulder drops, your hands are slow through the zone,
Speaker 1: and then you wind up rolling over a week groundball
Speaker 1: to shortstop, or you pop it up to second base,
Speaker 1: or you just flat out miss, which is probably the
Speaker 1: best example or the best outcome of that particular situation.
Speaker 1: But in football at quarterback, when you lose that stride
Speaker 1: and your base widens, it drops the arms law, and
Speaker 1: just like it affects the swing in baseball, it affects
Speaker 1: the release point and ultimately the grand point. Here your
Speaker 1: accuracy balls will sail. And that was a big reason
Speaker 1: why Wentz had so many turnovers last season. Balls got
Speaker 1: high on him and it caused for tips or deflections
Speaker 1: or just flat out overthrows that went right into the
Speaker 1: defensive backs arms that are behind those receivers. And you
Speaker 1: can tell us something that Wentz has worked on this
Speaker 1: offseason because the first couple of weeks he looked better mechanically.
Speaker 1: But I think it bears monitoring in this game because
Speaker 1: on those two wobbly ankles last week, it started to
Speaker 1: show up again as far as I saw on tape.
Speaker 1: So what is his mobility gonna look like? I think
Speaker 1: you can test that and see how he reacts to
Speaker 1: the pressure that you deploy against him. My either knock
Speaker 1: on Wentz coming out was the decision making amid the chaos.
Speaker 1: So if you can create a number of those situations,
Speaker 1: the averages should play in your favor to get some
Speaker 1: big plays, maybe some takeaways and some sacks and the
Speaker 1: big splash plays on defense. Now that said, a few
Speaker 1: quarterbacks can make as many plays amid chaos the way
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz Can and I used to do those grades
Speaker 1: for third and ten dot com, and the whole purpose
Speaker 1: of the website was to evaluate what happens on third
Speaker 1: and six plus because that's where every single scout, every
Speaker 1: single personnel person with quarterback evaluation starts their third and
Speaker 1: long reel. Because I think Mitchell Schwartz covered this, the
Speaker 1: former Chiefs tackle who's now a free agent out there
Speaker 1: along the offensive line, he had a great tweet talking
Speaker 1: about how that's where you really get your tree evaluation
Speaker 1: of the quarterback because all the other situations in the game,
Speaker 1: and this is football in a nutshell, you can scheme
Speaker 1: things up, you can play within certain confines to protect
Speaker 1: that quarterback. But when you get to third long, that's
Speaker 1: usually when the quarterback has to find a way to
Speaker 1: make a play, either instructure with a big time read
Speaker 1: or or a big time read and throw or going
Speaker 1: outside the structure and creating on his own to make
Speaker 1: that big play. So he was the top ranked quarterback
Speaker 1: that season on my grade chart on third downs because
Speaker 1: he was just Houdini time and time again, finding ways
Speaker 1: out of pressure, throwing the football down the field, and
Speaker 1: really making the defense pay for missing on their initial rush. Now,
Speaker 1: as for the matchup with the Miami safetyes, I mean,
Speaker 1: it's hard to forecast who's gonna be in what role,
Speaker 1: isn't it. I mean that's coach is not lying about
Speaker 1: the multiplicity of this team's plans and the positions or
Speaker 1: this position rather sort of exemplifies that fact, Like good
Speaker 1: luck guessing with the Dolphins safety deployment and snap counts
Speaker 1: and and their position they play where they're going to be.
Speaker 1: Good luck finding that out ahead of time. But just
Speaker 1: watching the Titans tape from last week Colts versus Titans,
Speaker 1: there were some since says of him passing up on
Speaker 1: potential open targets, and the Titans cover heavy coverage, heavy
Speaker 1: four man rush scheme, and they're playing some zone looks
Speaker 1: where he would come off a read quickly and then
Speaker 1: just kind of panic from there and turf the ball
Speaker 1: or worse, find his way into the past rush for
Speaker 1: hits and sacks. So Miami's ability to mix it up
Speaker 1: with moving around Holland and Rowe and Jones and mcquardy
Speaker 1: all of the formation that with the potential for scattershot throws,
Speaker 1: and how the Dolphins safety has made big plays when
Speaker 1: rushing the quarterback. Last week, Eric Rose pressure led to
Speaker 1: a pick and Brandon Jones had a pair of sacks.
Speaker 1: I really like that matchup for Miami. So some once
Speaker 1: data here before our next position group. The ball comes
Speaker 1: out of his hands at two point eight four second average.
Speaker 1: That's the twenty three longest held ball time in the
Speaker 1: National Football League. That's kind of winks his game. It's
Speaker 1: kind of like Ben Roethlisberger, right like in his prime
Speaker 1: or even now. Hold the ball and try to create
Speaker 1: because you're tough to bring down and the plays just
Speaker 1: do not really die with him at the helm. So
Speaker 1: you have to bring the party and you have to
Speaker 1: get him down to the ground. Average depth of target
Speaker 1: six point three yards. That's the thirtieth lowest in the
Speaker 1: National Football Leaguer thirtieth highest ranked. A tot Jacoby is
Speaker 1: a six point six for instance, two was his eight
Speaker 1: point three. So the short game has been their go
Speaker 1: to and looking at Wentz is deep and intermediate splits
Speaker 1: twenty plus yard passes. He's four for ten with a
Speaker 1: hundred and sixteen yards, no touchdowns, no picks, so pretty
Speaker 1: successful actually down the field. That's a good number, just
Speaker 1: a limited number of shots. They've been really close to
Speaker 1: the vest to spite the fact that he holds a
Speaker 1: football for so long, ten to nineteen yards, the intermediate
Speaker 1: range ten for seventeen, and that intermediate middle portion of
Speaker 1: the field between the numbers, like right down the middle
Speaker 1: of the football field has been his bread and butter
Speaker 1: eight for eleven ninety nine yards and all three of
Speaker 1: his touchdown passes have come in that area of the field.
Speaker 1: So that kind of plays into our matchups. We talked
Speaker 1: about with the safeties. Do you play a robber, do
Speaker 1: you play more umbrella or cloud coverage? Do you go
Speaker 1: straight man see if those guys can uncover. That's my
Speaker 1: personal preference because of the Dolphins matchups in that secondary
Speaker 1: versus the Colts receivers and those guys ability to separate
Speaker 1: or not separate. I like I am these defensive backs
Speaker 1: in that matchup Now, Carson Wentz is aggressive rate we
Speaker 1: talked about this going downfield is seventeen percent, actually ninth
Speaker 1: highest in the National Football leagues. So they just haven't
Speaker 1: had the opportunities to go down the field. With regards
Speaker 1: to the ten shots he takes the ten shots, he
Speaker 1: has taken twenty plus yards down the field, and that
Speaker 1: also has to do with separation as well, so it's
Speaker 1: kind of a collective score there, so it's not all
Speaker 1: correlating from the aggressive and A dot numbers. When he's
Speaker 1: blitzed seventeen for thirty a buck seventy seven, that's only
Speaker 1: five point nine yards per pass with two touchdowns and
Speaker 1: a pick. When he's pressured, you're gonna like this number
Speaker 1: nineteen forty three passing yards. That's four point nine yards
Speaker 1: per pass, zero touchdown, zero pick. So get pressure on
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz. Kind of the key there. I mean most
Speaker 1: weeks it is, but this week for sure. Now Brent
Speaker 1: Hunley serves as the backup quarterback according to a couple
Speaker 1: of Colts Beat guys I read on Twitter on Wednesday,
Speaker 1: and that will be the direction they go on Sunday
Speaker 1: as well, with Jacob Easton as the other option. He
Speaker 1: was a second round draft pick last year out of
Speaker 1: the University of Washington. Down Dog gokus. Which leads into
Speaker 1: our next matchup, which is sort of the key before
Speaker 1: the Key, the Indianapolis offensive line versus the Miami Dolphins
Speaker 1: defensive line. Indy is a bit banged up here. Sam
Speaker 1: Tavy is out, Quentin Nelson training that direction as well.
Speaker 1: Eric Fisher his second game back off a torn achilles
Speaker 1: he suffered last February in the Super Bowl or was
Speaker 1: it January? No, it was it was in the Conference championship.
Speaker 1: Gigs that didn't have their their offensive line for the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. But he has surrendered nine pressures and just
Speaker 1: a little more than one game. And Julian Davenport has
Speaker 1: six team pressures and three games. We know about Julian
Speaker 1: Devenport down here. Mark Glowinski has third team pressures allowed
Speaker 1: in three games. Ryan Kelly seven off the center in
Speaker 1: three games. He's their best offensive lineman that's healthy right now.
Speaker 1: And then Chris Reid three pressures in place of Quentin
Speaker 1: Nelson last week. We know about Chris Reid. Was a
Speaker 1: big fan of his game when he was down here
Speaker 1: in Miami. But Carson Wentz has been hit twenty eight times.
Speaker 1: That's the most in the National Football League, and Nelson
Speaker 1: had gone a hundred one snaps without a pressure allowed.
Speaker 1: So that's I put l on my notes. It's hilarious.
Speaker 1: What a stud. But it sounds like he'll be down.
Speaker 1: But I think there's an opportunity here. If there is one,
Speaker 1: it's off the outside against a couple of players who
Speaker 1: were supposed to be swing tackles or backup options for
Speaker 1: the Colts this year who have been forced into playing
Speaker 1: time because of injuries, and Julian Davenport and then Eric Fisher,
Speaker 1: who I thought maybe he started the year on pup
Speaker 1: but he's back earlier than he than I anticipated, so
Speaker 1: good for him. But again, coming off the Achilles a
Speaker 1: year ago. He actually had a veteran resting on Wednesday,
Speaker 1: which I assume is linked to that Achilles injury from
Speaker 1: last year, but he played his first full game on Sunday.
Speaker 1: To me, this is offensive line and defensive line play
Speaker 1: in general, but the change of direction is something to
Speaker 1: look at, and I thought we saw Jalen Phillips kind
Speaker 1: of show out in that area last week. His lateral
Speaker 1: steps and you know, the stab step and the crossover
Speaker 1: the stab step to widen and kind of get your
Speaker 1: offensive lineman's momentum going in the wrong direction and then
Speaker 1: use that momentum against them. That's offensive line play in
Speaker 1: a nutshell, and to me, with a lot of evaluation
Speaker 1: of Davenport's game was something he struggled with as well
Speaker 1: as Eric Fisher's game, just just because of the injury
Speaker 1: and coming back off that. Now, we also talked a
Speaker 1: little bit about Emmanuel Ogbah and his ability the last
Speaker 1: three games and really his entire tenure here in Miami
Speaker 1: to get on that upfield shoulder of the right tackle
Speaker 1: so quickly, and Wentz loves to get out of the
Speaker 1: trash and escape to his right, So I think a
Speaker 1: manual can take that away, but also possibly find himself
Speaker 1: into a big playoff. Wentz rolls into that direction kind
Speaker 1: of like Kyler Murray did in the Cardinals game last year.
Speaker 1: He gets that ball out for a strip sack and
Speaker 1: it goes back to the way for six. Now, I'm
Speaker 1: sure the Colts will keep plenty of tight ends and
Speaker 1: use backs in to chip and help on the edge.
Speaker 1: They've trended towards some more match protect stuff as their
Speaker 1: line has been banged up so far this season, and
Speaker 1: don't forget about Gek in that mix either, like he's
Speaker 1: a forgotten man sometimes in this three man pass ushed
Speaker 1: rotation even though he shouldn't be. I think it's a
Speaker 1: good chance to have all hands on deck rush plan here,
Speaker 1: and I would include the linebackers and that mix as well.
Speaker 1: More on that in just one second, but first let's
Speaker 1: go ahead and finish up this defensive line talk here,
Speaker 1: because Wilkins and Seiler and Jenkins holding the point against
Speaker 1: the run again will be another key in this game.
Speaker 1: Get those run down wins. They're gonna have their successful
Speaker 1: runs of course too, but get those majority rundown wins,
Speaker 1: like if you can win two of the three rushing downs,
Speaker 1: you feel good about that. And I also think their
Speaker 1: pass rush will show up this week big time. All
Speaker 1: the games they run can hopefully test the communication and
Speaker 1: protection assignments of an offensive line that's working in new
Speaker 1: parts and trying to kind of go through their depth
Speaker 1: and getting backup guys into lineup. Both communication and talent standpoint,
Speaker 1: you can test those two things. Even though Ryan Kelly,
Speaker 1: for my money, is one of the smartest players in
Speaker 1: the league. That will be a nice chess match up
Speaker 1: front from Miami and Flores and Boyer up against Frank
Speaker 1: reag and Marcus Brady and Carson Wentz and Ryan Kelly
Speaker 1: of that Colts battery there so to speak. But onto
Speaker 1: our next matchup. The Colts are, yeah, the Colts running
Speaker 1: backs versus the Dolphins linebackers. They love to get the
Speaker 1: ball to their backs and tight ends in the passing
Speaker 1: game and the run game. Two for the backs, but
Speaker 1: Michael Pittman Jr. Leads the team and targets with a lot,
Speaker 1: but number two is tight end. Zach Pascal. Number three
Speaker 1: and number four are tied between a tight end and
Speaker 1: a running back and Jack Doyle and Niheim Hines. Nike
Speaker 1: Hines is a freaking stud by the way, so I'll
Speaker 1: imagine they'll want to find favorable matchups for those guys.
Speaker 1: And this goes back to our first point. I really
Speaker 1: like the chances to defend those tight ends with our safeties. Now,
Speaker 1: Hines is so, so, so good and someone you have
Speaker 1: to keep an eye on. They're probably gonna want to
Speaker 1: get Miami in some bass looks which you know, three
Speaker 1: or four or four three year seven players on the
Speaker 1: front into the game with only four defensive backs or
Speaker 1: even two back looks to try to get Hines matched
Speaker 1: up that way on linebackers. Like I think this makes
Speaker 1: Sam egg Van's role a little more pertinent this week,
Speaker 1: perhaps after playing just five snaps a week ago. I
Speaker 1: think you might see him back doing what he does
Speaker 1: best and rushing the quarterback in this game from that
Speaker 1: linebacker position. We also need Bake to do what Bake
Speaker 1: does and just play a lot of a lot of
Speaker 1: snaps and draw a lot of tough responsibilities whether it's
Speaker 1: playing downhill in coverage and definitely keep an eye on
Speaker 1: nih Hinds he can burn you. And then interesting factor
Speaker 1: here is how do you attack that Colts eleven personnel
Speaker 1: package when they run the ball so well out of
Speaker 1: that package, which usually brings the nickel defense onto the
Speaker 1: field just two linebackers in the game most instances, sometimes
Speaker 1: less than that, and you go to work in the
Speaker 1: running game. Because as we finish up this group from
Speaker 1: the data points here, the Colts run eleven personnel eight
Speaker 1: percent of the time. That it's like all they run
Speaker 1: sixty percent of the time they pass out of that package,
Speaker 1: but only a forty percent success rate thirty four percent
Speaker 1: of the time they run the ball, so you know,
Speaker 1: a little more than one third, and they're successful on
Speaker 1: the runs out of that package at a fifty eight
Speaker 1: percent clips. So running the ball out of eleven personnel, spoiler,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be one of our keys of the game.
Speaker 1: Twelve personnel just nine percent, not enough of a sample
Speaker 1: size factor to to consider as far as success rates.
Speaker 1: And then thirteen personnel, three tight ends in the field.
Speaker 1: They run that five percent of the time. Again, not
Speaker 1: enough of a sample size there, so just keep in
Speaker 1: mind eleven personnel, it's almost strictly three y with a
Speaker 1: back in the tight end, and by far their most
Speaker 1: offensive success comes from running the football out of that
Speaker 1: eleven personnel against typically nickel defenses. So I'm curious to
Speaker 1: see how you land in Robert's role kind of material
Speaker 1: lises in this game, and how the Colts will split
Speaker 1: their time between Taylor and Hines, because Hines is averaging
Speaker 1: a league a team leading rather two point one six
Speaker 1: yards per route run like a really good number, and
Speaker 1: Taylor only has nine targets on the season, so they'll
Speaker 1: throw to them both, but Hines will flex out, whereas
Speaker 1: Taylor runs pretty much strictly routes from the backfield, but
Speaker 1: the rushing differences. Taylor has forty two carries and Hines
Speaker 1: has six teams, so typically Hines equals past, Taylor equals run.
Speaker 1: So adjust your personnel accordingly. With Taylor, you gotta get
Speaker 1: bodies to the party. He's already forced ten miss tackles
Speaker 1: this season, averaging two point six nine yards after initial contact,
Speaker 1: and he's got tremendous feel and vision, like if they
Speaker 1: block it up, he's gonna find it. And you've got
Speaker 1: to get someone there because if he gets free, he's
Speaker 1: tough to tackle. You have to force the change direction
Speaker 1: and bubble and let our guys get off those blocks
Speaker 1: and make plays on this very talented second year back
Speaker 1: from Wisconsin. Very critical element to this game is that
Speaker 1: running game with Jonathan Taylor, and with that we finish
Speaker 1: up on this side of the football before going over
Speaker 1: the Dolphins offense versus the Colts defense, the Indie receivers
Speaker 1: and tight ends versus Miami cornerbacks, and again Michael Pittman
Speaker 1: go to go to target twenty five targets, seventeen grabs,
Speaker 1: two D three yards. Think Davante Parker for his build
Speaker 1: slash athletic profile. He's six ft four, runs good. Not
Speaker 1: a blazer, but he runs good and can really attack
Speaker 1: leverage with his size and route running nuance and go
Speaker 1: out and snatch that football. He's also known to make
Speaker 1: plays after the catch, and he's the focal point. Imagine.
Speaker 1: I imagine that he'll get matched up plenty with Xavian
Speaker 1: Howard and even some double teams because he's really the
Speaker 1: go to guy in that passing game. But what's interesting
Speaker 1: about the number of eleven personnel they run is that
Speaker 1: Jack Doyle the tight end, played thirty five snaps last week,
Speaker 1: Moiley Cox, one of the best blocking tight ends in football,
Speaker 1: played twenty eight, and Kyl and Grandson played twelve snaps
Speaker 1: in that game. So seventy five tight end snaps when
Speaker 1: they only played sixty three in the game. A k
Speaker 1: A plenty of eleven personnel throughout the course of the
Speaker 1: game and the occasional twelve and thirteen personnel packages to
Speaker 1: get all those guys all those snaps. But again, I
Speaker 1: like Miami's matchup there once again with the safeties matching
Speaker 1: and matchup and blitzing wise, if Miami can find a
Speaker 1: way to vary those looks in a way the Colts
Speaker 1: cannot see coming. Could be a big, big day for
Speaker 1: the defense. In fact, I think it will be a
Speaker 1: big day for the defense. Otherwise it's Michael straight Chan.
Speaker 1: How about that name for a receiver for a football player,
Speaker 1: Michael straighthand straight Chan. He has three targets, Ashton Dolan
Speaker 1: has two. In Paris Campbell has five, although he did
Speaker 1: miss a game, so Paris Cambell keep it on him too,
Speaker 1: because he's pretty quick and shifty and can make some plays,
Speaker 1: but it's mostly tight ends and backs in the passing game.
Speaker 1: I really like Miami's defense this week. In this matchup,
Speaker 1: let's slip it over to the offensive side of the
Speaker 1: ball and the Dolphins quarterback versus the Colt safeties. Now,
Speaker 1: Jacoby was at his best last week creating and when
Speaker 1: he started to attack vertically. Both those things together I
Speaker 1: thought were his best attributes in that Raider's loss, which
Speaker 1: also helped the team create some space in the intermediate. Now,
Speaker 1: he made a handful of big plays like the scrambles,
Speaker 1: the keyhole shot to Parker on fourth and a and
Speaker 1: then of course the fourth and twenty rip to Mike
Speaker 1: get sicky. But you don't want to have to rely
Speaker 1: on those, and if we get them, we'll take them.
Speaker 1: But ideally we're sharper on the structured and lay up
Speaker 1: throws that's preferable in this game, like the mist to Miles,
Speaker 1: gasket on the swing route, the highball to Wattle, and
Speaker 1: the endzone. We have to hit those this week, and
Speaker 1: I think he will this week. And this might be something.
Speaker 1: It might be nothing. There's probably nothing, but it's worth mentioning.
Speaker 1: He's played a lot of football down here, and if
Speaker 1: you know this area, it's pot it's humid, sweaty, it's sticky,
Speaker 1: and we know how that humidity can affect the grip
Speaker 1: on a football. At least if you touched football down here,
Speaker 1: you know that. He's a local kid, so he's used
Speaker 1: to it. Where a team from Indie and they might
Speaker 1: have to adjust to how that football kind of gathers
Speaker 1: moisture throughout the course of the afternoon. As for their safeties,
Speaker 1: I love, love, love, love love Julian Blackman one of
Speaker 1: my favorite players in the draft. Couple of years ago.
Speaker 1: I had a chance to talk to him at the combine.
Speaker 1: He was fantastic. He plays all over the place. He's
Speaker 1: a former cornerback transition to safety, and he can match up,
Speaker 1: he can fit the run, he can play the poet.
Speaker 1: He does it all. So keep an eye on thirty two.
Speaker 1: But he has been playing majority in the post so
Speaker 1: far this season. The post made single high safety guys
Speaker 1: like the field goal post like you're playing the deep
Speaker 1: center field portion of the field. And that brings us
Speaker 1: to the Miami Dolphins tight ends and receivers versus the
Speaker 1: Colts cornerbacks, and PFF has the Colts with a seventy
Speaker 1: five point three percent completion percentage allowed this year. That's
Speaker 1: one of the tops in the National Football League, possibly
Speaker 1: a chance for the Miami passing game to get healthy.
Speaker 1: Kenny Moore is in the slot primarily for this team.
Speaker 1: He's allowed fifteen completions on nineteen targets for a buck
Speaker 1: seventy four, two touchdowns and a pick. And you go
Speaker 1: back to the Rams game. They went to Cooper Cup
Speaker 1: on more four times, all four caught, Robert Woods kicked
Speaker 1: inside three times, caught to the woman was a drop
Speaker 1: that he didn't catch, and Darl Henderson caught both of
Speaker 1: his targets on more. All of that for a total
Speaker 1: of one oh six and the long the loaning completion,
Speaker 1: I should say it was a drop, So we'll see
Speaker 1: if Miami can get some matchups in there they like.
Speaker 1: I like Wattle on Kenny Moore on this matchup. He
Speaker 1: had his best showing last week against Tennessee and that
Speaker 1: team is based more in two receiver sets or at
Speaker 1: least throwing the ball to Julio and A J. Brown
Speaker 1: more often. But I think Waddle in the slot could
Speaker 1: be a real good option when he draws Kenny Moore.
Speaker 1: Rocky Sin is a physical, physical cornerback, tough as hell,
Speaker 1: but teams have been able to get him on some
Speaker 1: contested catches over the course of his career, like locating
Speaker 1: and play the football. It's a tough ask for young cornerbacks.
Speaker 1: That's where he can be vulnerable at times, and now
Speaker 1: they might be where Davanta Parker can win at the
Speaker 1: catchpoint and do what he does best in those matchups.
Speaker 1: But for the most part, Rocky Sin has been strong
Speaker 1: this season. Nice little growth here in his I believe
Speaker 1: third year in the National Football League, as teams just
Speaker 1: haven't targeted him that frequently. But I think Miami could
Speaker 1: go after him with Davante Parker if they find that
Speaker 1: matchup on the perimeter, but teams have gone after the
Speaker 1: Colts primarily on the end slide, both against the slot
Speaker 1: corners and safety positions. Kari willis the the player who
Speaker 1: does not practice on Wednesday is also frequently targeted at
Speaker 1: the safety position. So I would see if you can
Speaker 1: stretch the scene with Ghaziki and also attempt to see
Speaker 1: if Waddle can split two high safety formations when that's
Speaker 1: the look they go with, but also when they go
Speaker 1: Ingle high and they roll coverage to a certain direction
Speaker 1: if they roll away from Wattle, some of those slot
Speaker 1: fades might be an opportunity for some big plays, and
Speaker 1: that is their preferred method. Typically black men single high
Speaker 1: up in the post and then they roll him to
Speaker 1: either direction whichever they feel they need help at in
Speaker 1: that defensive secondary. So I really like Jalen Waddle and
Speaker 1: Mike Gasicky in this game. Miami running backs versus Colts linebackers.
Speaker 1: Darius Leonard is often the best player on the field
Speaker 1: whenever he straps it up, and one of the craziest
Speaker 1: things about him is that he never ever comes, but
Speaker 1: when he does, he usually gets home. So keep an
Speaker 1: eye on fifty three and pass rushing. PFF has him
Speaker 1: with eight pass rush reps and pressures on half of those.
Speaker 1: They just don't blitz very often. Pro Football Reference has
Speaker 1: them at twenty one blitzes on eight pass attempts. Matt
Speaker 1: eber Fleus has a great feel for calling defense and
Speaker 1: dialing it up at the right time. So I like
Speaker 1: the way he feels the game and approaches it accordingly.
Speaker 1: So Miami has to be aware of that and combat
Speaker 1: that with their own calls. But he plays. Leonard does
Speaker 1: plays in coverage and against the run, and is so
Speaker 1: often a counteract to the speed of the modern game,
Speaker 1: both on wide runs in the running game, but also
Speaker 1: trying to get the defense to declare with some of
Speaker 1: that pre snap motion or get them outflanked with that
Speaker 1: priest snap movement in motion. He keys so well on
Speaker 1: guards or tight ends or whatever whatever it is he
Speaker 1: has the key on. He does it very well, and
Speaker 1: you might want to have to throw a wrinkle at
Speaker 1: him just to kind of get him taken that false
Speaker 1: step to get him off of a spot. It's a
Speaker 1: tough guy to prepare for. Darius Lner a big time
Speaker 1: linebacker there for the Colts, and that's how this defense
Speaker 1: operates man speed and instincts. In the second level, Bobbiokareki
Speaker 1: can flat out fly, He's so quick. Last week, I
Speaker 1: loved the Backs in the passing game and man, if
Speaker 1: we hit Myles Gasket on that swing route, I should
Speaker 1: look like a genius for it. But alas and not
Speaker 1: as crazy about it this week because I think they're
Speaker 1: fast enough to handle that, and they're good enough in coverage.
Speaker 1: But I think you go after them with size and physicality.
Speaker 1: Adapt your personnel to their personnel, right. I like the
Speaker 1: idea of trying to match up their nickel package on
Speaker 1: the field and then getting Mike at Sicky matched up
Speaker 1: on one of those guys. Again, I like this game
Speaker 1: from Mike. Also think we could see Shaheen and smythe
Speaker 1: and maybe you can hunter along on some quick hitters
Speaker 1: and down in the red zone. I think they match
Speaker 1: up well in those areas. Moving onto the Dolphin's offensive
Speaker 1: line versus the Colts defensive line, it all starts with
Speaker 1: the Forest Buckner. What a study he is. You might
Speaker 1: want to get two guys on him. He has ten
Speaker 1: pressures and four run stops this year. A filthy arsenal
Speaker 1: of pass rush moves with length and grip strength. Man,
Speaker 1: he does it all. He's a master of the snatch
Speaker 1: and arm over move. So it's a challenge for the
Speaker 1: offensive line because you know that when he puts that
Speaker 1: weight on you, you have to be careful to not
Speaker 1: lean back into him because that's what he wants, because
Speaker 1: then he uses those big long vines and the grip
Speaker 1: strength to help your momentum forward as he uses that
Speaker 1: kind of snatch arm over move as a sling shot
Speaker 1: of of sorts to get you into the backfield. Trying
Speaker 1: to say a sling shot of sorts, sling schlot of schlortz.
Speaker 1: That's how it sounds. Camiko Toure is very capable of
Speaker 1: winning one on ones of his own off the other edge.
Speaker 1: Buckner's more of an inside outside guy, but to raise
Speaker 1: strictly outside. At least it looked that way after a
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen season, but you go back last year there's
Speaker 1: a drop off as he started to see lesson last
Speaker 1: playing time and now he has just only two pass
Speaker 1: rush reps this season and only one pressure so far.
Speaker 1: But that was a nice pressure on Sunday against Taylor Lawan.
Speaker 1: He got a hit on Ryan Tannehill in that game.
Speaker 1: I'm curious to see him go up against Austin Jackson,
Speaker 1: who I thought improved big time on Sunday from his
Speaker 1: first game back, which, of course, coming back from COVID,
Speaker 1: you kind of built some strength up and you kind
Speaker 1: of get back to full health and full strength. And
Speaker 1: Austin talked about that and said, yeah, he felt much
Speaker 1: stronger in the second game for him this season. But
Speaker 1: I expect him to continue that trend of getting better
Speaker 1: really keeping on seventy three. This week, I think he's
Speaker 1: gonna be the week he gets it going for the
Speaker 1: Dolphins offensive line. Then on the inside, one of the
Speaker 1: most underrated players and all the football is Grover Stewart.
Speaker 1: There's some in Dominican sude of this guy's game. He's explosive,
Speaker 1: country strong. My god, is he's strong. You're probably not
Speaker 1: going to move him off the spot. And Derrick Henry
Speaker 1: had just four yards per rush on Sunday in Tennessee,
Speaker 1: and he was a big, big part of that. He
Speaker 1: can stack and shed as a two gapper, he can
Speaker 1: work down the line and zone runs outside zone like
Speaker 1: he's fluid. He's strong, does a little bit of everything.
Speaker 1: He can put his foot in the ground and work
Speaker 1: back across the block while keeping his frame clip Like,
Speaker 1: I just don't like anything you want to do against him.
Speaker 1: Maybe trap wham where you bring an unsuspecting tight end
Speaker 1: across him and whack him across the side of the face.
Speaker 1: Maybe you run away from him. I don't know. He's very,
Speaker 1: very tough, But those those three guys you really have
Speaker 1: to look at first. And I wonder if the Colts
Speaker 1: propensity to play more coverage and their general lack of
Speaker 1: depth from the rush so far this year might entice
Speaker 1: some more empty packages or full field ideas with four
Speaker 1: or five man route concepts. I just like this matchup
Speaker 1: from Miami. Let's so that's that's it. That's the preview.
Speaker 1: Let's get to the keys in the game. The three keys.
Speaker 1: Number one forced Carson Wentz off that first read because
Speaker 1: there was some a lot of reps in that Titans game,
Speaker 1: or once he came off the first read, he would
Speaker 1: kind of drop the eyes and dropped the football and
Speaker 1: then getting the mechanics all back and sorted from that point,
Speaker 1: it's a challenge. So you do that to him, you
Speaker 1: could generate some splash plays on the defensive side of
Speaker 1: the football. Number two, limit the Colts running game out
Speaker 1: of eleven personnel. That's their bread and butter. You cannot
Speaker 1: let Jonathan Taylor beat you from that package because then
Speaker 1: they can build off that in the passing game as well.
Speaker 1: So just keep that under four yards per rush, you'll
Speaker 1: have a great chance to win this game. At number three,
Speaker 1: when the offensive one on ones on the perimeter, talking
Speaker 1: about Davante Parker, Jalen Waddle, if Mike get sicky flexes
Speaker 1: out will full or if he's healthy and ready to go,
Speaker 1: those are gonna be some keys for Miami to get
Speaker 1: the passing game going and to keep the offense on
Speaker 1: the field, convert some third downs, and do what they
Speaker 1: do best and win this football game. So the Dolphins
Speaker 1: win if they can limit Jonathan Taylor's production from eleven personnel,
Speaker 1: and two for here, if they can protect the quarterback
Speaker 1: without keeping the whole gamut of maximum pass protection in
Speaker 1: the lineup four or five guys into the pattern, the
Speaker 1: Colts will win if well, obviously the converse of those
Speaker 1: two things, but more specifically, if Buckner and Stewart wrecked
Speaker 1: the game and generate long fields and turnovers, that'll be
Speaker 1: tough to overcome for this Dolphins offense. All right, there
Speaker 1: you have it, Dolphins and Colts preview in the barn
Speaker 1: the hey, isn't the bar? I think? Or it's in
Speaker 1: the bucket or something like that. Before we get out
Speaker 1: of here, I want to pick my Thursday Night pick
Speaker 1: for the Thursday Night game pick, toping four last week again,
Speaker 1: that's two weeks in about a row twelve and four.
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Jaguars again. Fool me once, you know,
Speaker 1: pull me twice, something like that. But I'm taking the Jags.
Speaker 1: The Bengals are down Jesse Bates and t Higgs. I
Speaker 1: think Jesse Bates is one of the best players in
Speaker 1: the entire National Football League. On a short week against
Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars, give me the fighting Myers and fighting
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrences to get their first win of the season.
Speaker 1: On t NF. They burned me back against the Broncos.
Speaker 1: Wasn't the Broncos? Yeah? I think it was taking the
Speaker 1: Jaguars regardless, So Jaguars over Bengals. Caroline Daddy is coming home.
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Speaker 1: se