WEBVTT - What Germany Did Right

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day twenty four

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<v Speaker 1>since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today, Germany has

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<v Speaker 1>been seen as having a model government response to the pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>Some have compared it to countries like Italy, where the

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<v Speaker 1>virus spread like wildfire after governments took too long to act,

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<v Speaker 1>but that comparison may be unfair and Germany's fate may

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<v Speaker 1>be about to change. But first, here's what happened today.

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<v Speaker 1>How Speaker Nancy Pelosi scaled back her ambitions for Congress's

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<v Speaker 1>next coronavirus stimulus package. She wants to focus on making

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<v Speaker 1>more direct payments to individual and expanding loans to businesses.

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<v Speaker 1>On CNN today, she said she still cared about infrastructure,

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<v Speaker 1>but would possibly leave that and other democratic priorities for

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<v Speaker 1>a later bill. Pelosi said the three and fifty billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars in the last stimulus meant to keep small business

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<v Speaker 1>afloat for two months won't be enough. She also said

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<v Speaker 1>people would need an extension of the expanded unemployment benefits

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<v Speaker 1>after data showed an unprecedented wave of new unemployment claims

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<v Speaker 1>in the last two weeks. So I'd like to go

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<v Speaker 1>right back and say, let's look at that bill, let's

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<v Speaker 1>update it for what with some other things that we need,

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<v Speaker 1>and again put money in the pockets of the American people,

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<v Speaker 1>another direct payment extending we had unemployment at six months

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<v Speaker 1>in our bill, it's four. Let's take it to six

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<v Speaker 1>for the unemployment so that people have that confidence. US

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<v Speaker 1>employment plunged last month, offering a first look at the

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<v Speaker 1>devastation the coronavirus pandemic has already been on trek on

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<v Speaker 1>the once strong labor market. Pay Rolls fell seven and

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<v Speaker 1>one thousand from the prior month, according to the Labor Department.

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<v Speaker 1>That data mainly covers the early part of March, before

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<v Speaker 1>widespread shutdowns forced firms to lay off millions more workers.

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<v Speaker 1>The jobless rate jumped to four point four, the highest since.

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<v Speaker 1>Economists say it will surge above ten in the coming months.

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<v Speaker 1>The US is expected to suggest Americans consider wearing face

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<v Speaker 1>coverings in public. That's a shift from what health officials

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<v Speaker 1>had previously recommended. Along with some other countries, US authorities

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<v Speaker 1>had discouraged anyone outside of hospitals from wearing masks, but

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<v Speaker 1>more and more officials are reconsidering that guidance. Doctor Anthony Faucci,

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<v Speaker 1>the top infectious disease expert in the US, said on

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<v Speaker 1>Fox News Friday that asks can help when people are

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<v Speaker 1>unable to keep six feet of distance from each other

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<v Speaker 1>with certain necessities of life, going out to get food,

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<v Speaker 1>while going to a pharmacy to get your medications, that

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<v Speaker 1>you may inadvertently come into closer contact. Because of that,

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<v Speaker 1>and because of some recent information that the virus can

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<v Speaker 1>actually be spread even when people just speak, as opposed

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<v Speaker 1>to coughing and sneezing, the better part of valor is

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<v Speaker 1>that when you're out and you can't maintain that six

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<v Speaker 1>foot distance, to wear some sort of facial covering. In Europe,

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<v Speaker 1>Spain reported the first decline in new coronavirus fatalities in

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<v Speaker 1>four days, while the UK had its deadliest day yet.

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<v Speaker 1>Germany's Angela Merkel ended her self quarantine, while UK Prime

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<v Speaker 1>Minister Boris Johnson still has symptoms and will continue to

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<v Speaker 1>self isolate. The city state of Singapore will shutter schools

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<v Speaker 1>and most workplaces, shifting away from an approach that limited

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<v Speaker 1>interruptions to daily life and commerce. That's after confirmed cases

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<v Speaker 1>of local transmission and unlinked infections in the country rose

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<v Speaker 1>in recent weeks. Now to today's main story, Italy has

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<v Speaker 1>been among the hardest hit countries by the pandemic, an

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<v Speaker 1>outbreak epicenter. Italy's cases are at nearly one twenty thousand,

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<v Speaker 1>with over fourteen thousand deaths as of Friday, April three.

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<v Speaker 1>In recent weeks, Italy's mortality rate from coronavirus had reached

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<v Speaker 1>as high as nine point five it sobering evidence of

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<v Speaker 1>how deadly the virus can be. And yet just to

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<v Speaker 1>the north, Germany seemed like it was escaping the worst

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<v Speaker 1>of the outbreak by enacting widespread testing and taking the

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<v Speaker 1>virus serious lee Earlier, with few cases and until recently

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<v Speaker 1>a mortality rate that hovered under one percent, Germany appeared

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<v Speaker 1>to be a model of how to successfully navigate the crisis.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, the US now has more than double Italy's cases,

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<v Speaker 1>and experts predict the country will see hundreds of thousands

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<v Speaker 1>of deaths before the pandemic subsides. Many have wondered whether

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<v Speaker 1>the US could have escaped in Italy like fate if

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<v Speaker 1>it followed measures similar to Germany, But now there's some

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<v Speaker 1>doubt about whether Germany is really a COVID nineteen success

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<v Speaker 1>story compared to Italy's cautionary tale. Over the last week,

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<v Speaker 1>Germany's mortality rate from the virus has crept higher, a

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<v Speaker 1>troubling indicator that the country may not have evaded serious

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<v Speaker 1>trouble yet. To understand how the virus is affecting different

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<v Speaker 1>European countries, I recently spoke with Bloomberg's Naomi Kreski from

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<v Speaker 1>my makeshift home studio in Toronto. Naomi is in Germany,

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<v Speaker 1>where you can hear the sounds of family life in

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<v Speaker 1>the background, from under a blanket in Canada to under

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<v Speaker 1>a blanket in Germany. Naomi, thank you for joining us.

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<v Speaker 1>What I really wanted to dig in here is about

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<v Speaker 1>these what looked like very startling differences among countries in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of cases and of course death rates in Europe.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the major examples have been Italy versus Germany.

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<v Speaker 1>Why do you think the death rates in Germany and

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<v Speaker 1>Italy are are so different? To some extent In Germany,

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<v Speaker 1>what we're seeing here is the effect of broad, broad

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<v Speaker 1>testing that the German government has done. They are now

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<v Speaker 1>testing some fifty thousand people a day for coronavirus. They're

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<v Speaker 1>they're going out and they're testing people who are not

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<v Speaker 1>that sick, people who are not showing up at the

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<v Speaker 1>hospital because they're very ill. Um they're following sort of

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<v Speaker 1>chains of disease and by finding the people who have

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<v Speaker 1>been in contact with people who were sick with coronavirus

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<v Speaker 1>and testing them if they show any symptoms at all.

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<v Speaker 1>And so partly as a result of that, you have

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<v Speaker 1>an age curve in Germany that just looks totally different

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<v Speaker 1>than the age curve of people who have the virus

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<v Speaker 1>in Italy or also in Spain, which is another place

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<v Speaker 1>in Europe that has had a tremendous number of people

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<v Speaker 1>die from coronavirus. You raised two really important points there,

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<v Speaker 1>and that it is a testing question and there is

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<v Speaker 1>at least a demographic and age demographic to consider there.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm wondering, is this explained at all by how

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<v Speaker 1>generations lived together actually in Germany versus Italy. Yeah, that's

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<v Speaker 1>a super interesting question. So they're actually some academics who

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<v Speaker 1>have already started looking at at this and trying to

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<v Speaker 1>find some correlations, and they're just correlations at this point.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't know for sure, but what we can say

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<v Speaker 1>is that more than of Italians between the ages of

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<v Speaker 1>thirty and forty nine, so sort of prime time to

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<v Speaker 1>be traveling, picking up the virus from somewhere out, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>meeting people UM getting germs. More than of these people

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<v Speaker 1>live with their parents, and that is more than double

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<v Speaker 1>the rate for Germans in that same age bracket. So

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<v Speaker 1>a pair of economists from Bond University actually looked at

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<v Speaker 1>this and found a correlation between generations living under one

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<v Speaker 1>roof and case fatality for coronavirus. What what are if

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<v Speaker 1>any lessons we can take from the Germany and Italy examples, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>sort of a twofold lesson UM. On the one hand,

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<v Speaker 1>Um the the economists who are looking at this, and

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<v Speaker 1>they suggested that in countries where this kind of multi

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<v Speaker 1>generational living is common, so in Europe that would be

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<v Speaker 1>places like Greece or bulk Area, Poland Serbia, places where

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<v Speaker 1>families often share a house or share an apartment, that

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<v Speaker 1>these countries should move swiftly to protect the elderly. Some

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<v Speaker 1>countries have spoken about school closures as one way to

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<v Speaker 1>do this. If you can prevent um children from passing

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<v Speaker 1>it among themselves and then taking it home and passing

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<v Speaker 1>it to their to to their older relatives. The second

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<v Speaker 1>thing to to maybe look at in this context is

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<v Speaker 1>um for countries where elderly people are not living together

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<v Speaker 1>with their families. UM. But this is one reason why

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<v Speaker 1>nursing homes, for example in in the US have closed

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<v Speaker 1>down their visiting hours, have said that families can't come

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<v Speaker 1>and visit older frail p bowl and are you know,

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<v Speaker 1>taking people's temperature at the door when they come in

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<v Speaker 1>and testing workers on a day to day basis just

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<v Speaker 1>this effort to try to prevent the virus from sort

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<v Speaker 1>of being unleashed among this really frail population. Early on

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<v Speaker 1>it looked like Germany was really going to escape this thing,

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<v Speaker 1>and and Italy was almost immediately hit hard and became

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<v Speaker 1>one of these epicenters of the global outbreak. How has

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<v Speaker 1>that perception perhaps changed in the last week, UM, Is

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<v Speaker 1>it's still that we're looking to Germany to say, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>there are a model that we can imitate in some

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<v Speaker 1>way to hopefully tamp down the curve, and what can

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<v Speaker 1>we avoid doing using Italy as perhaps a warning example?

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<v Speaker 1>Is that still the case? From the beginning, public health

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<v Speaker 1>authorities in Germany warned that the death rate here would

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<v Speaker 1>also rise, and part of that has to do with

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<v Speaker 1>as time goes by, younger people, people who are more

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<v Speaker 1>healthy who have the virus. Unfortunately, as time goes by,

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<v Speaker 1>the weeks go on, they can tip over to a

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<v Speaker 1>point where they are also sick enough to also pass away.

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<v Speaker 1>And we've seen that start to happen in Germany in

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<v Speaker 1>the last week or so, the first deaths of really

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<v Speaker 1>young people as well. Um, although one should say the

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<v Speaker 1>vast majority, um more than of deaths in Germany are

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<v Speaker 1>still people ages seventy and over. And and the other

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<v Speaker 1>thing that we're seeing happen in Germany now in the

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<v Speaker 1>past week is that the death rate is creeping up.

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<v Speaker 1>And part of that is that the virus has now

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<v Speaker 1>popped up in some senior living facilities, in some nursing homes,

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<v Speaker 1>and they are seeing a high mortality of people who

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<v Speaker 1>have gotten the virus in those facilities. So it sounds like,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we we may have once looked to Germany

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<v Speaker 1>to say, what can we emulate around the world to

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<v Speaker 1>maybe avoid the hardest elements of this crisis, But it

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<v Speaker 1>may just simply be they were maybe a little delayed

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe facing the same issues as as everyone else.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we'll really see in the next week or two,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it was purely an issue of delay or whether

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<v Speaker 1>there is a deeper thing that we can learn um

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<v Speaker 1>And so often you learn what you can learn after

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<v Speaker 1>it's already too late to learn it right. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll see how high the death rate does creep and

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<v Speaker 1>whether it was just an issue of delay or whether

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<v Speaker 1>they were able to sidesteps some of these really high

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<v Speaker 1>death rates that we've seen. That's it for the Prognosis

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<v Speaker 1>Daily Edition. For more on the coronavirus crisis from a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Blueberg dot

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<v Speaker 1>com slash coronavirus. If you appreciate the podcast, please take

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<v Speaker 1>a moment to rate us and leave us a review

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<v Speaker 1>on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to help more listeners find

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<v Speaker 1>our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily Edition is hosted by

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<v Speaker 1>me Laura Carlson. The show is produced by Me Topher Foreheads,

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<v Speaker 1>Jordan Gaspoure and Magnus Henriksson. Additional reporting by Naomi Kresky.

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<v Speaker 1>Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Francesca Levi

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<v Speaker 1>and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening,