1 00:00:15,410 --> 00:00:23,330 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hello and welcome to Cautionary Tales. This week we're 2 00:00:23,330 --> 00:00:25,970 Speaker 1: on our summer holidays, but we've got something from the 3 00:00:26,130 --> 00:00:30,130 Speaker 1: archives I hope you'll like. This year, of course, marks 4 00:00:30,170 --> 00:00:33,970 Speaker 1: the anniversary we would all rather forget five years since 5 00:00:34,090 --> 00:00:38,330 Speaker 1: COVID and the COVID lockdowns. During the summer of twenty twenty, 6 00:00:38,450 --> 00:00:41,530 Speaker 1: when I and everyone else were shut indoors, I wrote 7 00:00:41,610 --> 00:00:45,490 Speaker 1: some mini episodes about what we were learning in real 8 00:00:45,650 --> 00:00:49,890 Speaker 1: time over the pandemic. Five years on, Are those lessons 9 00:00:50,050 --> 00:00:53,810 Speaker 1: any different? Here is one of those episodes. It's called 10 00:00:54,090 --> 00:00:58,410 Speaker 1: Fire at the Beverly Hills Supper Club, and afterwards I 11 00:00:58,490 --> 00:01:01,330 Speaker 1: will be back for a talk with my producer, Georgia 12 00:01:01,370 --> 00:01:10,530 Speaker 1: Mills about whether we've really learned our lessons. Imagine the 13 00:01:10,610 --> 00:01:14,610 Speaker 1: seed a large ballroom. Twelve hundred people are seated around 14 00:01:14,610 --> 00:01:18,690 Speaker 1: the tables, enjoying the finest dining that nineteen seventy seven 15 00:01:18,770 --> 00:01:23,290 Speaker 1: has to offer, which admittedly isn't saying much, but everyone's 16 00:01:23,330 --> 00:01:27,010 Speaker 1: having a wonderful evening at the Beverly Hills Supper Club, which, 17 00:01:27,250 --> 00:01:32,610 Speaker 1: naturally given the name, is just outside Cincinnati. There's a 18 00:01:32,610 --> 00:01:36,050 Speaker 1: comedy duo on stage and the headline performer is expected 19 00:01:36,130 --> 00:01:40,570 Speaker 1: very soon. The singer and TV personality John Davidson a 20 00:01:40,570 --> 00:01:45,090 Speaker 1: big star at the time. But what the audience here 21 00:01:45,210 --> 00:01:47,770 Speaker 1: doesn't know is that on the other side of this 22 00:01:48,050 --> 00:01:52,890 Speaker 1: scrawling complex of function rooms, something's gone wrong. A fire 23 00:01:52,930 --> 00:01:56,610 Speaker 1: has broken out and it's spreading fast. The fire department 24 00:01:56,690 --> 00:01:59,330 Speaker 1: has already been called, and the fire is still some 25 00:01:59,490 --> 00:02:03,130 Speaker 1: distance away from the crowded cabaret room. But the more 26 00:02:03,170 --> 00:02:06,810 Speaker 1: it spreads, the more fuel it finds, the hotter it gets, 27 00:02:07,210 --> 00:02:10,690 Speaker 1: and the faster it moves. Safety standards at the supper 28 00:02:10,730 --> 00:02:14,330 Speaker 1: club aren't what they should be. There isn't a fire alarm, 29 00:02:14,530 --> 00:02:17,690 Speaker 1: there isn't a sprinkler system, and there isn't a lot 30 00:02:17,690 --> 00:02:22,010 Speaker 1: of time, and nobody in that room knows that the 31 00:02:22,050 --> 00:02:28,570 Speaker 1: fire is on its way. One remarkable young man, Walter Bailey, 32 00:02:28,970 --> 00:02:32,130 Speaker 1: did his best. Bailey was barely more than a boy. 33 00:02:32,570 --> 00:02:34,650 Speaker 1: He was eighteen years old and he worked as an 34 00:02:34,650 --> 00:02:38,570 Speaker 1: assistant waiter. Bailey had seen the fire and he realized 35 00:02:38,570 --> 00:02:41,890 Speaker 1: that although it was a long way from the cabaret room, 36 00:02:42,050 --> 00:02:45,930 Speaker 1: somebody needed to tell all those people to start evacuating. 37 00:02:47,090 --> 00:02:50,290 Speaker 1: Walter Bailey found the supervisor in the cabaret room, explained 38 00:02:50,290 --> 00:02:53,010 Speaker 1: about the fire, and asked him to clear the room. 39 00:02:53,330 --> 00:02:58,890 Speaker 1: The supervisor looked confused. Bailey told him again. The supervisor 40 00:02:58,930 --> 00:03:02,490 Speaker 1: turned and walked off to clear the room, thought Bailey, 41 00:03:03,010 --> 00:03:06,210 Speaker 1: who found seventy people lining up to get into the 42 00:03:06,250 --> 00:03:11,250 Speaker 1: cabaret room. Bailey led them instead to safety. When he returned, 43 00:03:12,010 --> 00:03:15,730 Speaker 1: he found that nobody inside the cabaret room had moved. 44 00:03:17,810 --> 00:03:44,730 Speaker 1: I'm Tim Harford, and you're listening to Cautionary Tales. This 45 00:03:44,930 --> 00:03:47,130 Speaker 1: Cautionary Tale is going to be a little different. I 46 00:03:47,170 --> 00:03:50,490 Speaker 1: hope that's okay. The world seems different these days, so 47 00:03:50,690 --> 00:03:52,770 Speaker 1: I've been writing some new stories for you to suit 48 00:03:52,810 --> 00:03:55,690 Speaker 1: the times we're in. They'll be a little shorter, a 49 00:03:55,730 --> 00:03:59,210 Speaker 1: little simpler, and perhaps a little more focused on the 50 00:03:59,290 --> 00:04:03,210 Speaker 1: challenges we face right now. And this episode is different 51 00:04:03,250 --> 00:04:06,130 Speaker 1: in another way too, because in a small way, it's 52 00:04:06,170 --> 00:04:09,570 Speaker 1: about me, about what I got wrong, and I hope 53 00:04:09,850 --> 00:04:13,570 Speaker 1: about what you can learn from my mistakes. We'll come 54 00:04:13,610 --> 00:04:15,650 Speaker 1: back to my mistakes and to the fire in the 55 00:04:15,690 --> 00:04:19,170 Speaker 1: Beverly Hills supper Club. But first I wanted to ask 56 00:04:19,170 --> 00:04:25,090 Speaker 1: you a question. Do you remember Captain Pastrengo Rugiati? You 57 00:04:25,170 --> 00:04:30,570 Speaker 1: must Cautionary Tales, Season one, Episode one, there was about 58 00:04:30,610 --> 00:04:33,610 Speaker 1: an oil tanker the size of the Chrysler building, a 59 00:04:33,690 --> 00:04:37,770 Speaker 1: ship with a name Tory Canyon. That ship was headed 60 00:04:37,810 --> 00:04:40,570 Speaker 1: for a sunken mass of rocks with a vicious reputation 61 00:04:40,890 --> 00:04:46,490 Speaker 1: called the Seven Stones, and Captain Pastrengo Ruggiati, Poor Pastrengo Rugiati, 62 00:04:46,850 --> 00:04:52,810 Speaker 1: steered his ship closer and closer and closer to disaster. 63 00:04:59,010 --> 00:05:01,850 Speaker 1: You can go and listen again if you like, I'll wait. 64 00:05:04,530 --> 00:05:08,290 Speaker 1: The mystery of Tory Canyon, you may remember, is that 65 00:05:08,370 --> 00:05:11,890 Speaker 1: while Captain Rugiati was steering his ship towards the rocks, 66 00:05:12,650 --> 00:05:16,370 Speaker 1: the weather was good, the visibility was good, Tory Kanyon 67 00:05:16,410 --> 00:05:19,930 Speaker 1: had radar, and the seven Stones were clearly marked both 68 00:05:19,930 --> 00:05:23,370 Speaker 1: on all the charts and by a lighthouse vessel warning 69 00:05:23,410 --> 00:05:27,650 Speaker 1: ships to keep away. There was still time to change course, 70 00:05:28,250 --> 00:05:31,810 Speaker 1: just as there was still time to evacuate the cabaret room. 71 00:05:31,850 --> 00:05:37,410 Speaker 1: And yet Tory Kanyon did not turn, just as the 72 00:05:37,410 --> 00:05:40,770 Speaker 1: people in the supper club cabaret room did not move. 73 00:05:43,250 --> 00:05:46,170 Speaker 1: Captain Rujati was a man in a hurry. He'd made 74 00:05:46,170 --> 00:05:49,050 Speaker 1: a plan to head straight for a harbor one hundred 75 00:05:49,090 --> 00:05:52,490 Speaker 1: and fifty miles beyond those rocks, But his original course 76 00:05:52,570 --> 00:05:56,930 Speaker 1: was charted safely through deep open water. That at least 77 00:05:57,490 --> 00:06:01,610 Speaker 1: was the plan. But now new information is coming in. 78 00:06:02,050 --> 00:06:05,450 Speaker 1: The ship has drifted off the expected course overnight, closer 79 00:06:05,490 --> 00:06:08,890 Speaker 1: to shore. He's now heading for a tight squeeze past 80 00:06:08,930 --> 00:06:12,810 Speaker 1: seven stones. Fishing boats have appeared blocking his way. The 81 00:06:12,890 --> 00:06:16,570 Speaker 1: current is pushing him towards the rocks. His plan is 82 00:06:16,570 --> 00:06:20,530 Speaker 1: getting riskier and riskier, but at no point does he 83 00:06:20,690 --> 00:06:27,970 Speaker 1: stop reflect and rethink everything. Instead, with each new piece 84 00:06:28,010 --> 00:06:32,690 Speaker 1: of bad news, he furrows his brow and rededicates himself 85 00:06:33,050 --> 00:06:39,090 Speaker 1: to his original plan. So here's my confession. In the 86 00:06:39,130 --> 00:06:43,570 Speaker 1: face of the growing coronavirus epidemic, I behaved in exactly 87 00:06:43,610 --> 00:06:46,930 Speaker 1: the same way. It took me far too long to 88 00:06:47,010 --> 00:06:49,410 Speaker 1: really think about the information that was coming my way. 89 00:06:50,210 --> 00:06:55,290 Speaker 1: It took me even longer to take action. I too, 90 00:06:55,970 --> 00:07:10,050 Speaker 1: am Captain Ruggiati. In our very first quretionary tale, I 91 00:07:10,130 --> 00:07:14,450 Speaker 1: discussed one reason why we don't change course. Psychologists call 92 00:07:14,490 --> 00:07:19,130 Speaker 1: it plan continuation bias. We focus on a particular goal. 93 00:07:19,730 --> 00:07:22,250 Speaker 1: When bad news comes in that should make us rethink, 94 00:07:22,650 --> 00:07:26,490 Speaker 1: our tunnel vision only narrows. The bad news makes us 95 00:07:26,530 --> 00:07:29,650 Speaker 1: redouble our focus on the initial plan. Now that we 96 00:07:29,690 --> 00:07:33,610 Speaker 1: know it's going to be difficult. Rugiati was racing against 97 00:07:33,610 --> 00:07:36,970 Speaker 1: the clock, and with each setback the tunnel vision must 98 00:07:36,970 --> 00:07:41,290 Speaker 1: have closed. In Further, he also made his fateful decisions 99 00:07:41,290 --> 00:07:44,610 Speaker 1: by himself. He was a captain who didn't inform his 100 00:07:44,730 --> 00:07:47,650 Speaker 1: crew of the details of his plans and didn't seek 101 00:07:47,690 --> 00:07:52,770 Speaker 1: their comments. As he acknowledged, I must answer for everything 102 00:07:53,210 --> 00:07:58,490 Speaker 1: for everyone. I must carry the cross along. If only 103 00:07:58,570 --> 00:08:01,650 Speaker 1: Ruggiati had been open to criticism and had sought the 104 00:08:01,730 --> 00:08:04,450 Speaker 1: views of his officers, they might have helped him to 105 00:08:04,530 --> 00:08:07,930 Speaker 1: regain his grasp of the risks and rethink his plans. 106 00:08:09,210 --> 00:08:12,650 Speaker 1: But having other people to guide you doesn't always help. 107 00:08:13,250 --> 00:08:15,770 Speaker 1: If they're in the same situation as you, with the 108 00:08:15,810 --> 00:08:19,250 Speaker 1: same assumptions, they can lull you into thinking that none 109 00:08:19,290 --> 00:08:22,570 Speaker 1: of you have a problem, when in fact, all of 110 00:08:22,570 --> 00:08:28,730 Speaker 1: you have a problem. There's a famous psychological study conducted 111 00:08:28,770 --> 00:08:32,050 Speaker 1: in the nineteen sixties by bib Latane and John Darley. 112 00:08:32,650 --> 00:08:35,970 Speaker 1: The scientists ask their subjects to sit quietly and fill 113 00:08:35,970 --> 00:08:39,810 Speaker 1: out a questionnaire. Sometimes the subject would be alone and 114 00:08:39,850 --> 00:08:45,010 Speaker 1: sometimes in a group of three. Gradually, the researchers pumped 115 00:08:45,370 --> 00:08:50,130 Speaker 1: smoke into the room. When the subject was sitting alone, 116 00:08:50,370 --> 00:08:52,810 Speaker 1: he or she tended to note the smoke and calmly 117 00:08:52,890 --> 00:08:55,770 Speaker 1: leave to report it. When the subjects were in a 118 00:08:55,770 --> 00:08:58,730 Speaker 1: group of three who were much less likely to react, 119 00:08:59,090 --> 00:09:04,730 Speaker 1: each person remained passive, reassured by the passivity of the others. 120 00:09:07,810 --> 00:09:10,250 Speaker 1: Based on what we now know about the Beverly Hills 121 00:09:10,290 --> 00:09:16,050 Speaker 1: supper Club in nineteen seventy seven, that experiment seems darkly prophetic. 122 00:09:17,050 --> 00:09:20,330 Speaker 1: That incident is vividly described by Amanda Ripley in her 123 00:09:20,330 --> 00:09:25,170 Speaker 1: book The Unthinkable. Remember where We left off? Twelve hundred 124 00:09:25,210 --> 00:09:27,890 Speaker 1: people were in the cabaret room listening to the warm 125 00:09:28,010 --> 00:09:31,530 Speaker 1: up act crack jokes on stage. A fire was racing 126 00:09:31,530 --> 00:09:35,490 Speaker 1: towards them. Young Walter Bailey's supervisor had shrugged and ignored 127 00:09:35,530 --> 00:09:39,610 Speaker 1: the problem. Like Pastrengo Ugiati, the supervisor had a plan 128 00:09:40,130 --> 00:09:42,970 Speaker 1: and didn't seem able to fully appreciate that the plan 129 00:09:43,010 --> 00:09:46,570 Speaker 1: would have to change. So Walter Bailey did something big, 130 00:09:46,810 --> 00:09:50,570 Speaker 1: something he assumed would cost him his job. But someone 131 00:09:50,610 --> 00:09:53,290 Speaker 1: had to act. He decided that it was going to 132 00:09:53,290 --> 00:09:56,810 Speaker 1: be him. Although he was just a teenager, and although 133 00:09:56,810 --> 00:10:00,330 Speaker 1: he suffered from stage fright, Bailey strode down the middle 134 00:10:00,370 --> 00:10:04,090 Speaker 1: of the room, climbed up on stage, grabbed a microphone. 135 00:10:04,650 --> 00:10:07,050 Speaker 1: I want everyone to look to my right, there's an 136 00:10:07,130 --> 00:10:09,450 Speaker 1: exit to the right corner of the room. And look 137 00:10:09,490 --> 00:10:11,850 Speaker 1: to my left, there's an exit on the left. And 138 00:10:11,850 --> 00:10:14,490 Speaker 1: now look to the back. There's an exit at the back. 139 00:10:14,810 --> 00:10:17,970 Speaker 1: I want everyone to leave the room calmly. There is 140 00:10:18,010 --> 00:10:22,130 Speaker 1: a fire at the front of the building. And then 141 00:10:22,490 --> 00:10:27,170 Speaker 1: Walter Bailey left the stage. I wish I could tell 142 00:10:27,170 --> 00:10:30,610 Speaker 1: you that one two hundred people rose to their feet 143 00:10:31,050 --> 00:10:35,170 Speaker 1: and filed out of the room, But they didn't. Who 144 00:10:35,290 --> 00:10:38,130 Speaker 1: was this kid? They thought, was he part of the act? 145 00:10:38,570 --> 00:10:42,010 Speaker 1: Was the fire for real? Was it a problem? People 146 00:10:42,050 --> 00:10:44,450 Speaker 1: thought of the expense of their ticket, of how much 147 00:10:44,490 --> 00:10:47,570 Speaker 1: they were enjoying the food, they were looking forward to 148 00:10:47,610 --> 00:10:51,410 Speaker 1: hearing John Davidson sing. They didn't want to rush out 149 00:10:51,450 --> 00:10:55,010 Speaker 1: if they didn't have to. So did they have to? 150 00:10:56,090 --> 00:10:59,330 Speaker 1: It wasn't clear. Think about the last time you were 151 00:10:59,370 --> 00:11:02,090 Speaker 1: sitting around in a building and a fire alarm went off. 152 00:11:02,410 --> 00:11:04,690 Speaker 1: Did you spring to your feet and seek the nearest 153 00:11:04,690 --> 00:11:08,810 Speaker 1: fire exit? And oh I didn't. I looked around to 154 00:11:08,850 --> 00:11:12,130 Speaker 1: see what others were doing. The same thing happened in 155 00:11:12,170 --> 00:11:15,850 Speaker 1: the Beverly Hills supper Club. People did what people do. 156 00:11:15,890 --> 00:11:18,690 Speaker 1: They look to the left and to the right, as 157 00:11:18,770 --> 00:11:21,370 Speaker 1: Walter Bailey had told them to, but they weren't looking 158 00:11:21,370 --> 00:11:24,090 Speaker 1: for the exits. They were looking at what the people 159 00:11:24,170 --> 00:11:27,450 Speaker 1: next to them were doing. Was Susan to my left moving? 160 00:11:28,010 --> 00:11:32,050 Speaker 1: What about Fred to my right? With everyone taking cues 161 00:11:32,090 --> 00:11:36,370 Speaker 1: from everyone else, the group was slow to respond, and 162 00:11:36,450 --> 00:11:48,450 Speaker 1: they really didn't have a minute to spare. Because I'm 163 00:11:48,490 --> 00:11:52,010 Speaker 1: a journalist and frankly a nerd, I should have been 164 00:11:52,170 --> 00:11:55,970 Speaker 1: way ahead of the curve on coronavirus. Think back to 165 00:11:56,010 --> 00:11:59,290 Speaker 1: the thirteenth of February twenty twenty. I know it feels 166 00:11:59,290 --> 00:12:02,970 Speaker 1: a long time ago. Only three people outside of China 167 00:12:03,290 --> 00:12:05,810 Speaker 1: had died from the new virus, at least as far 168 00:12:05,810 --> 00:12:08,850 Speaker 1: as anyone knew at the time. Nobody in the US 169 00:12:09,210 --> 00:12:11,570 Speaker 1: thought to have died of it, nor had anyone in 170 00:12:11,570 --> 00:12:14,930 Speaker 1: my own country, the UK. The virus felt a very 171 00:12:14,970 --> 00:12:20,770 Speaker 1: distant threat, but it wasn't. More than a thousand people 172 00:12:20,810 --> 00:12:24,090 Speaker 1: had died in China, and that number was rising rapidly. 173 00:12:24,770 --> 00:12:29,890 Speaker 1: Twenty five countries had confirmed cases. Well respected epidemiologists had 174 00:12:29,930 --> 00:12:33,130 Speaker 1: already concluded that there was little chance of stamping out 175 00:12:33,170 --> 00:12:37,690 Speaker 1: these other cases quickly. The novel coronavirus was too contagious, 176 00:12:38,290 --> 00:12:40,890 Speaker 1: like the fire in the supper club. It was spreading 177 00:12:40,970 --> 00:12:47,690 Speaker 1: everywhere and rapidly gathering speed. And I know this because 178 00:12:47,850 --> 00:12:53,410 Speaker 1: I interviewed one of those well respected epidemiologists. On February thirteenth, 179 00:12:53,890 --> 00:12:57,650 Speaker 1: Dr Natalie MacDermott of King's College, London walked into a 180 00:12:57,690 --> 00:13:00,650 Speaker 1: studio at the BBC and told me the latest thinking 181 00:13:00,690 --> 00:13:04,930 Speaker 1: on the new coronavirus. The early data had suggested that 182 00:13:04,970 --> 00:13:07,650 Speaker 1: the virus killed more than one in ten of the 183 00:13:07,690 --> 00:13:11,690 Speaker 1: people it infected. Doctor MacDermott reassured me that no, it 184 00:13:11,850 --> 00:13:15,170 Speaker 1: probably wasn't quite that dangerous. The best guess at the 185 00:13:15,170 --> 00:13:18,330 Speaker 1: fatality rate was more like one in a hundred, may 186 00:13:18,370 --> 00:13:21,210 Speaker 1: be as low as one in two hundred. Nobody knew 187 00:13:21,250 --> 00:13:24,770 Speaker 1: for sure. Should I just assume that every one on 188 00:13:24,810 --> 00:13:27,730 Speaker 1: the planet would get it? I asked now. She said 189 00:13:27,770 --> 00:13:32,290 Speaker 1: that was too fatalistic, but if we couldn't contain it, 190 00:13:32,290 --> 00:13:35,570 Speaker 1: it was certainly infectious enough to infect a majority of 191 00:13:35,610 --> 00:13:41,730 Speaker 1: the planet's population. I nodded. I believed her. I even 192 00:13:41,730 --> 00:13:46,210 Speaker 1: did the mental arithmetic. There might be five billion cases, 193 00:13:46,330 --> 00:13:48,570 Speaker 1: and with a one in a hundred death rate, that 194 00:13:48,650 --> 00:13:52,370 Speaker 1: would be fifty million people around the world dying over 195 00:13:52,370 --> 00:13:55,330 Speaker 1: the course of a few months in the United States, 196 00:13:55,650 --> 00:13:59,410 Speaker 1: it would be two million deaths. What did I do 197 00:13:59,530 --> 00:14:00,810 Speaker 1: with the doctor's information. 198 00:14:01,770 --> 00:14:02,210 Speaker 2: I did what. 199 00:14:02,250 --> 00:14:06,850 Speaker 1: Pastrengo ROGALTI did. As his ship plowed on towards the rocks, 200 00:14:07,130 --> 00:14:10,650 Speaker 1: I anxiously furrowed my brow and I kept on going, 201 00:14:10,930 --> 00:14:18,730 Speaker 1: hoping the worst wouldn't happen. Now, I don't want to 202 00:14:18,890 --> 00:14:23,290 Speaker 1: exaggerate my failings. I didn't crash any oil tankers. Nobody 203 00:14:23,330 --> 00:14:26,810 Speaker 1: died because of my mistakes. But I could have done 204 00:14:26,810 --> 00:14:29,890 Speaker 1: better easily. I could have held off on booking my 205 00:14:29,930 --> 00:14:32,770 Speaker 1: summer vacation. I could have made sure I caught up 206 00:14:32,810 --> 00:14:35,730 Speaker 1: with my elderly father and stepmother, who were in high 207 00:14:35,850 --> 00:14:38,650 Speaker 1: risk groups. I could have sold all my shares, or 208 00:14:38,650 --> 00:14:40,730 Speaker 1: at least most of them, and waited for a couple 209 00:14:40,770 --> 00:14:44,570 Speaker 1: of months to see whether doctor Macdermott's grim scenario was 210 00:14:44,610 --> 00:14:49,010 Speaker 1: starting to become a reality. Instead, I took some money 211 00:14:49,210 --> 00:14:52,050 Speaker 1: out of savings to pay down some of my mortgage 212 00:14:52,450 --> 00:14:55,170 Speaker 1: because I had gigs firmly in the diary that would 213 00:14:55,170 --> 00:14:58,610 Speaker 1: top the savings back up again. Those gigs were canceled, 214 00:14:58,610 --> 00:15:02,050 Speaker 1: of course, which means I drained my savings at the 215 00:15:02,090 --> 00:15:05,450 Speaker 1: worst possible moment. If for goodness sake, I could at 216 00:15:05,530 --> 00:15:08,890 Speaker 1: least have bought some extra toilet paper. But none of 217 00:15:08,890 --> 00:15:12,930 Speaker 1: this went through my mind. It wasn't that I wasn't anxious. 218 00:15:13,010 --> 00:15:16,690 Speaker 1: I was anxious, just like Pastrengo VIGIATI was anxious. I 219 00:15:16,890 --> 00:15:20,130 Speaker 1: was aware there was a problem, and yet I didn't 220 00:15:20,170 --> 00:15:24,890 Speaker 1: step back, think things through, and turn my anxiety into action. 221 00:15:25,490 --> 00:15:29,890 Speaker 1: And perhaps you may recognize yourself in that description too. 222 00:15:30,210 --> 00:15:34,690 Speaker 1: Remember the experiment by psychologists bib Latane and John Darley. 223 00:15:35,450 --> 00:15:40,650 Speaker 1: They slowly pumped smoke into rooms containing people filling in questionnaires. 224 00:15:41,370 --> 00:15:44,770 Speaker 1: Solitary subjects didn't hesitate to leave and report the smoke, 225 00:15:45,490 --> 00:15:50,010 Speaker 1: but groups of people stayed and stayed as the smoke thickened, 226 00:15:50,810 --> 00:15:55,690 Speaker 1: reassured by each other's passivity. Those experimental subjects had done nothing. 227 00:15:59,090 --> 00:16:02,970 Speaker 1: Now a decade later, the customers of the Beverly Hill 228 00:16:03,050 --> 00:16:06,610 Speaker 1: supper Club were re enacting that experiment in the most 229 00:16:06,690 --> 00:16:10,690 Speaker 1: terrible way. Some people moved in reaction to young Walter 230 00:16:10,730 --> 00:16:15,530 Speaker 1: Bailey's warning he saved them, but many people were too 231 00:16:15,530 --> 00:16:18,970 Speaker 1: slow to react, lulled into complacency by the fact that 232 00:16:19,090 --> 00:16:23,890 Speaker 1: others were also too slow. Four minutes later, the power 233 00:16:23,970 --> 00:16:27,490 Speaker 1: failed and the lights went out in the ballroom, Toxic 234 00:16:27,570 --> 00:16:31,010 Speaker 1: smoke rolled in, and anyone still in that room faced 235 00:16:31,010 --> 00:16:35,530 Speaker 1: a dreadful challenge in getting out alive. Walter Bailey repeatedly 236 00:16:35,570 --> 00:16:38,770 Speaker 1: held his breath and headed back in to drag out 237 00:16:38,770 --> 00:16:42,490 Speaker 1: as many people as he could. One hundred and sixty 238 00:16:42,530 --> 00:16:45,530 Speaker 1: seven people died that night. If it hadn't been for 239 00:16:45,570 --> 00:16:48,610 Speaker 1: Walter Bailey, the death toll might have been many hundreds more. 240 00:16:50,010 --> 00:17:02,610 Speaker 1: Bailey also survived. He's a true hero. I'd like to 241 00:17:02,650 --> 00:17:05,770 Speaker 1: think that if disaster struck, I'd have the courage and 242 00:17:05,810 --> 00:17:09,650 Speaker 1: the presence of mind of Walter Bailey. But I'm more 243 00:17:09,770 --> 00:17:14,330 Speaker 1: like those poor, unsuspecting supper club patrons, enjoying their food 244 00:17:14,370 --> 00:17:17,850 Speaker 1: and looking forward to the music, then wondering what to 245 00:17:17,890 --> 00:17:22,570 Speaker 1: do and taking cues from everyone else. We're social animals, 246 00:17:22,570 --> 00:17:26,010 Speaker 1: we humans. We know instinctively that it's normally safer to 247 00:17:26,050 --> 00:17:28,370 Speaker 1: stay with the group than to do what the group does, 248 00:17:29,410 --> 00:17:34,170 Speaker 1: but not always. I hesitated too, And then when I 249 00:17:34,210 --> 00:17:37,450 Speaker 1: started reacting in earnest to the pandemic, I found that 250 00:17:37,490 --> 00:17:40,530 Speaker 1: the stock market was already plunging. The pasta and toilet 251 00:17:40,570 --> 00:17:42,890 Speaker 1: paper was already sold out, and there was no hope 252 00:17:42,890 --> 00:17:47,130 Speaker 1: of getting masks. Our governments found themselves in the same 253 00:17:47,170 --> 00:17:51,490 Speaker 1: situation for much the same reason. This series. I'll have 254 00:17:51,610 --> 00:17:53,850 Speaker 1: more to say about what our leaders have done and 255 00:17:54,050 --> 00:17:57,210 Speaker 1: failed to do, but for now, let's simply note that 256 00:17:57,330 --> 00:18:01,850 Speaker 1: many Western democracies found themselves in the same crazy scramble 257 00:18:02,290 --> 00:18:06,650 Speaker 1: for ventilators, for swab testing kits, for masks, and for gowns. 258 00:18:07,610 --> 00:18:10,770 Speaker 1: If everyone had started to taking action in January, while 259 00:18:10,770 --> 00:18:13,170 Speaker 1: the risk of a pandemic was still just a risk, 260 00:18:13,730 --> 00:18:16,970 Speaker 1: we'd all be in better shape now. But just as 261 00:18:16,970 --> 00:18:20,770 Speaker 1: in the supper club, before they acted, everyone wanted to 262 00:18:20,810 --> 00:18:24,370 Speaker 1: be a little more certain that there really was a problem. 263 00:18:25,090 --> 00:18:29,330 Speaker 1: Amy Edmondson, a professor at Harvard Business School, calls this 264 00:18:29,370 --> 00:18:33,810 Speaker 1: sort of problem an ambiguous threat. The warning signs aren't 265 00:18:33,890 --> 00:18:37,930 Speaker 1: completely straightforward, and the potential for harm is unclear as well. 266 00:18:38,930 --> 00:18:43,090 Speaker 1: Ambiguous threats might be serious or they might not. As 267 00:18:43,130 --> 00:18:47,530 Speaker 1: Professor Edmondson points out, that ambiguity is exactly what makes 268 00:18:47,570 --> 00:18:51,530 Speaker 1: these types of threats so dangerous. Because we're not sure 269 00:18:51,570 --> 00:18:55,530 Speaker 1: that they're serious, we easily find excuses not to take 270 00:18:55,570 --> 00:19:00,930 Speaker 1: them serious. Lee While leading epidemiologists were warning that the 271 00:19:01,010 --> 00:19:04,690 Speaker 1: virus might well become a pandemic. It wasn't obvious that 272 00:19:04,730 --> 00:19:07,370 Speaker 1: they were right. It wasn't obvious that it would spread 273 00:19:07,370 --> 00:19:09,850 Speaker 1: so quickly. It wasn't obvious that it would lead to 274 00:19:09,890 --> 00:19:14,650 Speaker 1: the complete shutdown of major economies around the world. But then, 275 00:19:14,890 --> 00:19:19,010 Speaker 1: for Captain Pastrengo Rugiati, it wasn't obvious that fishing boats 276 00:19:19,010 --> 00:19:21,930 Speaker 1: would appear to block his way. It wasn't obvious that 277 00:19:21,930 --> 00:19:24,890 Speaker 1: one of his officers would make a navigational error. It 278 00:19:24,970 --> 00:19:27,930 Speaker 1: wasn't obvious that his ship's maneuvering would be delayed by 279 00:19:27,930 --> 00:19:31,210 Speaker 1: confusion about whether the ship was on autopilot or not. 280 00:19:31,970 --> 00:19:35,290 Speaker 1: I didn't expect Rugiati to predict all these things, just 281 00:19:35,330 --> 00:19:38,450 Speaker 1: as I don't blame myself for failing to forecast every 282 00:19:38,490 --> 00:19:41,490 Speaker 1: detail of the pandemic. But what he should have done 283 00:19:41,890 --> 00:19:46,370 Speaker 1: was realize the risks and take action to reduce those risks. 284 00:19:47,130 --> 00:19:50,450 Speaker 1: And so should I. I should have thought through the implications. 285 00:19:50,690 --> 00:19:53,410 Speaker 1: What might it mean if a pandemic threatened to kill 286 00:19:53,490 --> 00:19:57,450 Speaker 1: two million Europeans and another two million Americans? How might 287 00:19:57,490 --> 00:20:00,930 Speaker 1: we all respond? And while I might not have realized 288 00:20:00,970 --> 00:20:03,930 Speaker 1: on February the thirteenth that almost half the world was 289 00:20:03,970 --> 00:20:07,050 Speaker 1: heading into Lockdown. It was surely a possibility that I 290 00:20:07,050 --> 00:20:11,410 Speaker 1: should have considered much sooner than I did. But no, 291 00:20:12,570 --> 00:20:17,090 Speaker 1: faced with the unthinkable, it's hard to think it. That 292 00:20:17,330 --> 00:20:23,450 Speaker 1: was never in my mind, never said Pastrengo Ruggiati. There 293 00:20:23,450 --> 00:20:25,130 Speaker 1: were a lot of things that were never in my 294 00:20:25,290 --> 00:20:29,130 Speaker 1: mind either. Perhaps they should have been. I hope that 295 00:20:29,170 --> 00:20:35,370 Speaker 1: I remember my own limitations in future. Anciosno il capitano Ruggiati. 296 00:20:36,210 --> 00:20:49,290 Speaker 1: I too, am Captain Ruggiati. Hello. Everyone, It is twenty 297 00:20:49,450 --> 00:20:52,410 Speaker 1: twenty five. Tim Harford back with you, and I am 298 00:20:52,490 --> 00:20:57,170 Speaker 1: joined in the studio by series producer Georgia Mills. Hello Georgia, 299 00:20:57,250 --> 00:20:57,810 Speaker 1: Hi Tim. 300 00:20:58,330 --> 00:21:01,090 Speaker 2: Listening to this episode and looking back at the Lockdown, 301 00:21:01,250 --> 00:21:03,410 Speaker 2: what was that time like for you, both as a 302 00:21:03,490 --> 00:21:06,210 Speaker 2: journalist and also just as a regular human. 303 00:21:06,970 --> 00:21:09,090 Speaker 1: Well, I don't think my experience is a regular human 304 00:21:09,370 --> 00:21:12,690 Speaker 1: were any different from anyone else's. I was thinking, Oh, 305 00:21:12,730 --> 00:21:17,330 Speaker 1: this must be particularly tough for people with young children 306 00:21:17,410 --> 00:21:19,650 Speaker 1: who could be going to nurse. Why. I was, Oh, no, actually, 307 00:21:19,650 --> 00:21:22,410 Speaker 1: maybe it's particularly tough for people with teenagers who were 308 00:21:22,450 --> 00:21:24,890 Speaker 1: studying for exams. I don't know. It must be really 309 00:21:24,890 --> 00:21:27,090 Speaker 1: tough for people who don't have any family and who 310 00:21:27,090 --> 00:21:29,370 Speaker 1: were all by themselves. Actually, no, maybe it's really tough 311 00:21:29,770 --> 00:21:31,530 Speaker 1: for older people who were most at risk. And then 312 00:21:31,570 --> 00:21:35,050 Speaker 1: I realized it's kind of tough for a lot of people. 313 00:21:35,970 --> 00:21:41,690 Speaker 1: I had the privilege of feeling useful while also staying safe, 314 00:21:41,770 --> 00:21:44,890 Speaker 1: so unlike the medics or essential workers, I didn't have 315 00:21:44,930 --> 00:21:47,170 Speaker 1: to go out and expose myself to the virus. But 316 00:21:47,210 --> 00:21:50,690 Speaker 1: at the same time, I was covering the story for 317 00:21:50,890 --> 00:21:54,250 Speaker 1: the Financial Times and particularly for the BBC. We had 318 00:21:54,250 --> 00:21:58,530 Speaker 1: an epic series of our numbers related radio series, more 319 00:21:58,650 --> 00:22:00,650 Speaker 1: or less trying to make sense of what was going on, 320 00:22:00,970 --> 00:22:05,290 Speaker 1: and I did all of that from home, so really 321 00:22:05,330 --> 00:22:08,410 Speaker 1: feeling that I was kind of I was doing something 322 00:22:08,490 --> 00:22:11,170 Speaker 1: useful and I had something to do, but at the 323 00:22:11,210 --> 00:22:14,450 Speaker 1: same time and absolutely no risks. So frankly a lot 324 00:22:14,530 --> 00:22:15,850 Speaker 1: easier for me than for many. 325 00:22:16,770 --> 00:22:20,010 Speaker 2: And listening back to the pandemic series you made, what 326 00:22:20,130 --> 00:22:21,650 Speaker 2: thoughts do you have hearing that now? 327 00:22:22,250 --> 00:22:25,130 Speaker 1: Oh, it is fascinating the number of different issues that 328 00:22:25,530 --> 00:22:28,410 Speaker 1: have come up. So we were talking about unintended consequences, 329 00:22:28,410 --> 00:22:32,810 Speaker 1: we were talking about the failure to react, we were 330 00:22:32,810 --> 00:22:35,650 Speaker 1: talking about the importance of data. So I think a 331 00:22:35,690 --> 00:22:38,570 Speaker 1: lot of it still stands up. But at the same time, 332 00:22:38,610 --> 00:22:41,650 Speaker 1: there was certain things. Listening to the series, you just think, oh, 333 00:22:41,690 --> 00:22:45,050 Speaker 1: we had no idea what was coming. So it's an 334 00:22:45,050 --> 00:22:48,450 Speaker 1: interesting time capsule. One other thing I've found is that 335 00:22:49,010 --> 00:22:50,890 Speaker 1: some people listen to the podcast and go, oh, wow, 336 00:22:50,930 --> 00:22:53,450 Speaker 1: that was so prescient, and other people listen to the 337 00:22:53,450 --> 00:22:55,970 Speaker 1: podcast and go, wow, that's so embarrassing. You got everything wrong, 338 00:22:56,410 --> 00:22:58,650 Speaker 1: which is just a reminder that people are going to 339 00:22:59,850 --> 00:23:02,810 Speaker 1: adopt particular views of the world, and you're going to 340 00:23:02,810 --> 00:23:05,690 Speaker 1: seem very smart or very stupid, depending on whether what 341 00:23:05,730 --> 00:23:08,570 Speaker 1: you said happens to align with those views. 342 00:23:09,090 --> 00:23:12,090 Speaker 2: I mean, they were made in June twenty twenty, so 343 00:23:12,130 --> 00:23:14,650 Speaker 2: it already felt like probably a million years of COVID 344 00:23:14,690 --> 00:23:16,290 Speaker 2: by them, but there was so much of a wild 345 00:23:16,370 --> 00:23:21,370 Speaker 2: rollercoaster to come. So what other cautionary tales related to 346 00:23:21,450 --> 00:23:22,970 Speaker 2: COVID do you think have emerged since? 347 00:23:23,570 --> 00:23:27,890 Speaker 1: Well, there's obviously a whole slew of lessons to learn 348 00:23:27,970 --> 00:23:34,010 Speaker 1: about vaccines and vaccine communication and vaccine skepticism. The vaccine 349 00:23:34,010 --> 00:23:38,170 Speaker 1: obviously was a huge story in twenty twenty one, as 350 00:23:38,250 --> 00:23:41,890 Speaker 1: vaccines started to be rolled out and protect people from 351 00:23:41,930 --> 00:23:48,330 Speaker 1: the virus. I think another lesson is that how countries 352 00:23:48,410 --> 00:23:53,250 Speaker 1: did in the first wave does not necessarily predict much 353 00:23:53,930 --> 00:23:58,090 Speaker 1: about how well they did overall. So I remember very 354 00:23:58,130 --> 00:24:01,890 Speaker 1: clearly that summer of twenty twenty doing it and a 355 00:24:01,930 --> 00:24:04,450 Speaker 1: series for the BBC or an episode for the BBC 356 00:24:05,250 --> 00:24:08,490 Speaker 1: asking why had things gone so much worse in the 357 00:24:08,610 --> 00:24:11,450 Speaker 1: UK than in Germany? The number of people who died 358 00:24:11,490 --> 00:24:14,130 Speaker 1: in Germany was so much less about a quarter a 359 00:24:14,210 --> 00:24:16,410 Speaker 1: number of people who died in the UK. And then 360 00:24:16,450 --> 00:24:20,570 Speaker 1: actually roll forward a year and the Germans had caught up. 361 00:24:20,770 --> 00:24:22,690 Speaker 1: In the long run, it didn't really make any difference. 362 00:24:22,770 --> 00:24:24,170 Speaker 1: The virus was going to do what it was going 363 00:24:24,250 --> 00:24:26,770 Speaker 1: to do, so that I think, what was a surprise 364 00:24:26,850 --> 00:24:29,330 Speaker 1: We'd told ourselves the Germans had done so much better. 365 00:24:29,410 --> 00:24:32,610 Speaker 1: But maybe in the end, all the preparation you can 366 00:24:32,650 --> 00:24:36,130 Speaker 1: do doesn't make as much difference as you might think. 367 00:24:36,610 --> 00:24:39,970 Speaker 2: What about looking back at lockdowns? They were they worth it? 368 00:24:40,050 --> 00:24:42,690 Speaker 2: Were they important? Do we even have answers today? 369 00:24:42,930 --> 00:24:45,210 Speaker 1: Well, we have some answers, but a lot of the 370 00:24:45,850 --> 00:24:49,930 Speaker 1: kind of data that we would want to have stopped 371 00:24:49,930 --> 00:24:52,730 Speaker 1: being collected during the lockdowns because of the lockdowns. So, 372 00:24:52,770 --> 00:25:00,170 Speaker 1: for example, children's exam performance, did children's academic performance suffer 373 00:25:00,410 --> 00:25:03,490 Speaker 1: did they regress. Actually quite hard to answer that question 374 00:25:03,530 --> 00:25:05,930 Speaker 1: because the very exams that you might use to answer 375 00:25:05,970 --> 00:25:09,650 Speaker 1: that question were discontinued or were changed. It's hard to 376 00:25:09,690 --> 00:25:13,450 Speaker 1: generalize because different parts of the world had very different 377 00:25:13,650 --> 00:25:18,370 Speaker 1: lockdown policies. But let me offer a couple of reflections. 378 00:25:19,050 --> 00:25:23,010 Speaker 1: One is that looking at the UK, which I have 379 00:25:23,090 --> 00:25:26,570 Speaker 1: done in some detail, we have quite good evidence that 380 00:25:26,650 --> 00:25:31,370 Speaker 1: a lot of kids bounced back academically. The academic impact 381 00:25:31,450 --> 00:25:34,290 Speaker 1: was really bad, but it was quite short lived and 382 00:25:34,330 --> 00:25:37,770 Speaker 1: a lot of kids had caught up surprisingly quickly. So 383 00:25:37,810 --> 00:25:40,370 Speaker 1: in the end you go, okay, fine, no harm done. 384 00:25:40,410 --> 00:25:43,930 Speaker 1: It turns out people can bounce back. The impact on 385 00:25:44,050 --> 00:25:48,370 Speaker 1: mental health I think less of a cheerful story. Mental 386 00:25:48,370 --> 00:25:53,530 Speaker 1: health definitely deteriorated a lot. There was a long term 387 00:25:53,610 --> 00:25:58,050 Speaker 1: decline of teenage mental health, possibly something to do with smartphones, 388 00:25:58,130 --> 00:26:01,570 Speaker 1: possibly something to do with something else. And then we 389 00:26:01,650 --> 00:26:04,250 Speaker 1: had COVID and we had the lockdowns, and that seemed 390 00:26:04,250 --> 00:26:07,850 Speaker 1: to make it all worse. Unclear whether it really made 391 00:26:07,890 --> 00:26:11,130 Speaker 1: a long term difference, And also unclear was the problem 392 00:26:11,130 --> 00:26:13,250 Speaker 1: of the lockdown, so was the problem of the virus, 393 00:26:13,410 --> 00:26:16,410 Speaker 1: because they're happening at the same time, so you know, 394 00:26:16,010 --> 00:26:19,130 Speaker 1: Are you suffering because you can't get out and see 395 00:26:19,170 --> 00:26:21,530 Speaker 1: your friends, or are you suffering because you're terrified that 396 00:26:21,530 --> 00:26:23,410 Speaker 1: you're going to lose your parents to this deadly virus? 397 00:26:23,490 --> 00:26:27,410 Speaker 1: Or is it both so hard to know. One final 398 00:26:27,450 --> 00:26:30,770 Speaker 1: point I think is worth making is when you look 399 00:26:30,850 --> 00:26:34,250 Speaker 1: at countries such as Sweden who had much more liberal 400 00:26:34,490 --> 00:26:40,130 Speaker 1: lockdown policies, actually, and you get a similar story in 401 00:26:40,170 --> 00:26:44,570 Speaker 1: certain US states. People still sort of lock themselves down. 402 00:26:45,490 --> 00:26:48,090 Speaker 1: So you had many of the same benefits of the 403 00:26:48,130 --> 00:26:52,050 Speaker 1: lockdowns in terms of controlling the virus, and you had 404 00:26:52,050 --> 00:26:54,250 Speaker 1: many of the same costs in terms of you know, 405 00:26:54,290 --> 00:26:56,970 Speaker 1: if you're running a restaurant or a bar. In Sweden, 406 00:26:57,730 --> 00:27:00,130 Speaker 1: it's legal for people to come and sit in your restaurant, 407 00:27:00,130 --> 00:27:03,690 Speaker 1: but they're not going to do it. So I understand 408 00:27:03,730 --> 00:27:07,690 Speaker 1: why when a government mandates something that's to be taken seriously, 409 00:27:07,730 --> 00:27:09,850 Speaker 1: and that is that is to be It's not a 410 00:27:09,890 --> 00:27:12,930 Speaker 1: trivial matter. But it's worth bearing in mind that if 411 00:27:12,930 --> 00:27:16,130 Speaker 1: governments had done nothing, I think a lot of the 412 00:27:16,210 --> 00:27:19,850 Speaker 1: impact on the virus, on the economy and on people's 413 00:27:19,890 --> 00:27:23,610 Speaker 1: mental health might not have been as different as all 414 00:27:23,610 --> 00:27:26,170 Speaker 1: the people shouting at each other about it. Would like 415 00:27:26,210 --> 00:27:27,610 Speaker 1: to think right. 416 00:27:27,610 --> 00:27:30,170 Speaker 2: And you mentioned there that there's not enough data to 417 00:27:30,210 --> 00:27:32,930 Speaker 2: really establish quite a lot of things we'd like to establish. 418 00:27:32,930 --> 00:27:35,690 Speaker 2: So is there a cautionary tailer hear about the gathering 419 00:27:35,690 --> 00:27:36,170 Speaker 2: of data. 420 00:27:36,890 --> 00:27:40,890 Speaker 1: I think there is. It's easy to underestimate quite how 421 00:27:40,930 --> 00:27:45,890 Speaker 1: important data was, and ultimately, if you had enough data, 422 00:27:45,970 --> 00:27:48,490 Speaker 1: there's no pandemic. I mean that it may sound a 423 00:27:48,490 --> 00:27:53,250 Speaker 1: strange thing to claim, but imagine in the ideal case. Okay, 424 00:27:53,250 --> 00:27:56,250 Speaker 1: here's the data we've got. We've got data. The moment 425 00:27:56,370 --> 00:28:00,170 Speaker 1: somebody is infected, we immediately know they're infected, and we 426 00:28:00,290 --> 00:28:04,090 Speaker 1: know how infectious they are, how likely they are to 427 00:28:04,130 --> 00:28:06,810 Speaker 1: spread the disease to other people. And let's say that 428 00:28:06,850 --> 00:28:10,050 Speaker 1: everybody is wearing a smart watch, and that smart watch 429 00:28:10,170 --> 00:28:13,570 Speaker 1: just glows bright red as you're walking down the street. 430 00:28:13,690 --> 00:28:15,930 Speaker 1: If you're infectious and you just look around and you 431 00:28:15,970 --> 00:28:18,290 Speaker 1: can see anybody who's wearing a bright red smart watch, 432 00:28:18,730 --> 00:28:21,490 Speaker 1: you keep away from them. And in fact, those people 433 00:28:21,530 --> 00:28:23,210 Speaker 1: have to stay at home, and if they don't stay 434 00:28:23,210 --> 00:28:25,010 Speaker 1: at home, the police will come and have a word. 435 00:28:25,370 --> 00:28:27,890 Speaker 1: If you had that, if the data were that good, 436 00:28:29,050 --> 00:28:32,250 Speaker 1: the pandemic's over in a week, right, It's literally over. 437 00:28:33,130 --> 00:28:35,490 Speaker 1: When you realize that, you realize, oh, so much of 438 00:28:35,530 --> 00:28:40,570 Speaker 1: this is not actually about treatments or about vaccines. It's 439 00:28:40,610 --> 00:28:44,890 Speaker 1: about that we don't know who's infectious and who isn't, 440 00:28:45,090 --> 00:28:48,130 Speaker 1: and if we had better data, we make a real 441 00:28:48,250 --> 00:28:51,490 Speaker 1: contribution to preventing future pandemics. Now, of course, we're not 442 00:28:51,490 --> 00:28:54,970 Speaker 1: going to have that ultimate glowing smart watch in future, 443 00:28:55,010 --> 00:28:58,290 Speaker 1: well probably not, probably not, maybe not, who knows what 444 00:28:58,410 --> 00:29:00,450 Speaker 1: we'll have in the future. But what we might have 445 00:29:00,610 --> 00:29:04,250 Speaker 1: is much better testing, availability of really rapid tests, and 446 00:29:04,290 --> 00:29:09,770 Speaker 1: maybe some smarter algorithms to process the information. So you 447 00:29:09,770 --> 00:29:13,370 Speaker 1: you do a test you can't positive, and the computer 448 00:29:13,490 --> 00:29:15,530 Speaker 1: is better able to say, oh, well, you know, here 449 00:29:15,530 --> 00:29:18,130 Speaker 1: are the people you met after you got infected. Here 450 00:29:18,130 --> 00:29:20,410 Speaker 1: are the people you met before you got infected. They 451 00:29:20,490 --> 00:29:23,290 Speaker 1: might be infected, and just do a better job of 452 00:29:24,130 --> 00:29:29,850 Speaker 1: controlling the disease without these really widespread draconian lockdowns. So 453 00:29:29,890 --> 00:29:33,410 Speaker 1: there's a huge amount to be gained by having better data, 454 00:29:33,810 --> 00:29:35,850 Speaker 1: and I think it's very very easy to overlook. We 455 00:29:35,890 --> 00:29:38,290 Speaker 1: always overlook the power of data in my experience. 456 00:29:38,650 --> 00:29:41,850 Speaker 2: So are you optimistic for whenever the next pandemic hits, 457 00:29:41,850 --> 00:29:44,210 Speaker 2: that we'll get the data right or at least better. 458 00:29:44,810 --> 00:29:47,050 Speaker 1: I think we've learned an awful lot. I think the 459 00:29:47,090 --> 00:29:48,890 Speaker 1: technology is going to get a lot better. I think 460 00:29:48,890 --> 00:29:51,330 Speaker 1: we're going to have a much faster development of vaccines, 461 00:29:51,610 --> 00:29:54,450 Speaker 1: you know, all things being equal, So you know, there's 462 00:29:54,490 --> 00:29:57,970 Speaker 1: a lot to be optimistic about. Clearly, what we've also 463 00:29:58,050 --> 00:30:00,770 Speaker 1: learned is there's an awful lot of politics, and the 464 00:30:00,810 --> 00:30:06,690 Speaker 1: politics is not necessarily helpful. But overall, I think COVID 465 00:30:06,690 --> 00:30:09,730 Speaker 1: could have been a much more serious illness. Just imagine 466 00:30:09,770 --> 00:30:11,610 Speaker 1: if it had been ten times more deadly than it was. 467 00:30:12,330 --> 00:30:14,610 Speaker 1: Just imagine if it had affected children instead of eighty 468 00:30:14,650 --> 00:30:17,690 Speaker 1: year olds. I mean, obviously it did affect some children, 469 00:30:17,730 --> 00:30:20,730 Speaker 1: but imagine if it had been more deadly for children 470 00:30:21,050 --> 00:30:23,450 Speaker 1: than for the very elderly. It could have been so 471 00:30:23,570 --> 00:30:25,490 Speaker 1: much worse. It could have been so much deadlier, it 472 00:30:25,490 --> 00:30:29,170 Speaker 1: could have been absolutely terrifying. So in a way, maybe 473 00:30:29,210 --> 00:30:33,570 Speaker 1: we should think of COVID not as this disaster, but 474 00:30:33,690 --> 00:30:38,130 Speaker 1: as a near miss that should give us lessons that 475 00:30:38,170 --> 00:30:40,650 Speaker 1: would help us avoid a much worse disaster in future. 476 00:30:41,090 --> 00:30:45,290 Speaker 1: And well, the lesson of cautionary tales is always you 477 00:30:45,330 --> 00:30:49,650 Speaker 1: should try to learn from past mistakes. But also we 478 00:30:49,690 --> 00:30:52,450 Speaker 1: don't always do so. 479 00:30:51,570 --> 00:30:53,610 Speaker 2: Nice we'll have to wait and see, so thank you, Tim. 480 00:30:53,610 --> 00:30:55,370 Speaker 2: I think we'll leave it there, but if you haven't 481 00:30:55,410 --> 00:30:59,530 Speaker 2: heard the rest of the Pandemic specials, I really recommend 482 00:30:59,610 --> 00:31:01,290 Speaker 2: going back. I listened to them for the first time 483 00:31:01,330 --> 00:31:03,850 Speaker 2: this year and they are both a really interesting time 484 00:31:03,850 --> 00:31:07,290 Speaker 2: capsule but also really relevant still, so lots of other 485 00:31:07,330 --> 00:31:08,650 Speaker 2: episodes to check out, and. 486 00:31:08,770 --> 00:31:11,890 Speaker 1: We'll be back next week with another classic from the archive, 487 00:31:12,290 --> 00:31:16,850 Speaker 1: a tale about Peps's disastrous bottlecap promotion and a man 488 00:31:16,890 --> 00:31:28,410 Speaker 1: who bought more than a thousand chocolate puddings. See you them. 489 00:31:28,690 --> 00:31:31,650 Speaker 1: Three books that helped us research this episode are The 490 00:31:31,730 --> 00:31:36,450 Speaker 1: Unthinkable by Amanda Ripley, The Ostrich Paradox by Howard Conruther 491 00:31:36,610 --> 00:31:41,570 Speaker 1: and Robert Mayer, and Meltdown by Chris Clearfield and Andrew Tiltik. 492 00:31:42,010 --> 00:31:44,530 Speaker 1: As always, a full list of our sources is in 493 00:31:44,570 --> 00:31:50,890 Speaker 1: the show notes on Timharford dot com. Cautionary Tales is 494 00:31:50,930 --> 00:31:54,170 Speaker 1: written and presented by me Tim Harford, with help from 495 00:31:54,250 --> 00:31:57,450 Speaker 1: Andrew Wright. The show was produced by Ryan Dilly with 496 00:31:57,530 --> 00:32:01,890 Speaker 1: support from Pete Norton. The music mixing and mastering are 497 00:32:01,930 --> 00:32:05,210 Speaker 1: the work of Pascal Wise. The scripts were edited by 498 00:32:05,250 --> 00:32:09,730 Speaker 1: Julia Barton. Special thanks to Neil LaBelle, Carli Milli, Ry, 499 00:32:09,770 --> 00:32:15,810 Speaker 1: Heather Fame, Maya Kainigg, Jacob Weisberg, and Malcolm Gladwell. Cautionary 500 00:32:15,810 --> 00:32:18,330 Speaker 1: Tales is a Pushkin industry's production