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Speaker 1: The volume. Let's get to uh, A man that's hot

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Speaker 1: had had a big bounce back week. He uh like

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Speaker 1: some games, it seemed crazy on paper. Panthers plus ten

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Speaker 1: and a half, it's easy outright win Saints Tennessee. That

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Speaker 1: got a little dicey, but they pulled it off in Detroit.

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Speaker 1: I mean, what an effort by the Dan Campbell play caller.

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Speaker 1: Now Dan Campbell the offensive coordinator and alliance. Uh. You

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Speaker 1: can hear stucky every week Thursday, Action Network podcast picking games.

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Speaker 1: What's up, my man? What's going on? Yeah? We I'm

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Speaker 1: glad we avoided it over time with the Saints, and

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Speaker 1: the Saints should have never been that close. There was

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Speaker 1: that roughing the passer call early in the game on

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Speaker 1: an interception. I talked about this on my pot Act

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Speaker 1: podcast start this week. Why why don't we just review

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Speaker 1: roughing the passer? They want to protect the quarterbacks? All right,

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Speaker 1: we can't flip games on these awful calls. Your college

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Speaker 1: you watch college to your huge college fan, we're doing

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Speaker 1: college right through the flag for targeting. You go look

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Speaker 1: at it real quick, say, oops, my bad, we're trying

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Speaker 1: to protect players, but this is wrong. We looked at

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Speaker 1: it real quick, all right, no targeting, do the same

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Speaker 1: thing with roughing the past, or it makes maybe we

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Speaker 1: make way too much sense. It's an easy one. I

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Speaker 1: wonder if in the off seas and someone brings that

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Speaker 1: to the table in the competition committee. I guess the

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Speaker 1: one pushback might be the game flow because like in

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Speaker 1: the NFL, obviously you can challenge other plays in college,

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Speaker 1: the challenges I'm not exactly you might know the rule like,

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Speaker 1: it just doesn't seem like as many plays get challenged

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Speaker 1: in college like they do in the NFL. Is that fair? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: But what what they're starting to do now, which I'm

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Speaker 1: a huge fan of with the NFL, is they'll have

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Speaker 1: these quick reviews right where they're just buzzed down and

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Speaker 1: say he was out of bounds and they don't have

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Speaker 1: to go and it takes ten seconds. So if it's

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Speaker 1: iffy right, maybe then they just let it stand. But

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Speaker 1: on some of these where the quarterback just gets pushed um,

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Speaker 1: they can say that they can buzz down real quickly

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Speaker 1: be like, hey, that's not not rough in the pastor

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Speaker 1: they just have to do something. These they swing there's

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Speaker 1: these are game changing calls. Sometimes it's getting hard to

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Speaker 1: watch and everyone no one likes it and it's uh

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Speaker 1: so anyway, I digress. Okay, let's start with uh. I mean,

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Speaker 1: on paper, with the Chiefs kicking the Raiders ass and

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Speaker 1: kind of getting their swag back, U might be the

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Speaker 1: game of the weekend. Uh Dallas going to Arrowhead. You

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Speaker 1: have Mahomes coming off five touchdowns, deck in that offense, absolutely,

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Speaker 1: you know, embarrassed Atlanta, who's thirty six to three in

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Speaker 1: the first half. Honestly, I don't know if I could

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Speaker 1: bet this game because you would go, it's hard to

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Speaker 1: go against Aye Reid Mahomes when they kind of got

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Speaker 1: it rolling at home. But I would say Dallas is

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Speaker 1: just a terrible matchup for Kansas City given how they

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Speaker 1: can throw the ball, and you'd say, you know, the

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Speaker 1: last couple of years, can't say he ain't really covered

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Speaker 1: anyone this this probably stay away from me, But I

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Speaker 1: know you like, who do you like in this game? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I played the Chiefs. I mean, getting my homes at

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Speaker 1: anything under a field goal at home is always going

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Speaker 1: to be tough to pass up. They have been great

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Speaker 1: at covering over the past year plus. They're one of

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Speaker 1: the worst teams in the NFL against the spread, and

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Speaker 1: they really hardly ever cover anymore as more than a

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Speaker 1: field goal favor. I think my homes downs nineteen twenty four,

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Speaker 1: nineteen and twenty four against the spread as more than

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Speaker 1: a field goal favor. However, when he's an underdog or

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Speaker 1: a field a favorite of a field goal or less,

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Speaker 1: he's ten two and one against the spread. But you

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Speaker 1: don't have to worry about the defense giving up a

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Speaker 1: back door. He just needs to go out and win

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Speaker 1: this game. And I like what I saw for the

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Speaker 1: past few weeks. The league adjusted to the Chiefs, and

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Speaker 1: now the Chiefs had to adjust back, and they were

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Speaker 1: they were being too stubborn. And even Homes even said

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Speaker 1: he said, it's not in my nature to play like this.

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Speaker 1: Run the ball, set up the long pass. Well, you

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Speaker 1: could do that against the Cowboys. You can run the ball,

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Speaker 1: you can throw to your tight end, and then you

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Speaker 1: can set up the deep past take advantage of Treyvon

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Speaker 1: Diggs's aggressiveness. So I think there's a great matchup for

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Speaker 1: Kansas City's offense. I think they're finally learning how to

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Speaker 1: approach these teams who are just saying, look, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: drop our safeties, We're not gonna blitz, and don't forget

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Speaker 1: a big part of stop in the Chiefs. You have

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Speaker 1: to have someone that can get pressure, and the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: won't have Randy Gregor, who has been one of the

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Speaker 1: best past switchers in the NFL this year, and DeMarcus

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Speaker 1: Lawrence is still in i R. So their top two

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Speaker 1: past rushers around. I think that's big. Here. On the

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Speaker 1: other side of the ball, the Chief's defense has been

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Speaker 1: playing a lot better. First five weeks two and three record,

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Speaker 1: give up thirty two point six points per game. Last

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Speaker 1: five four and one record, they've gonna fifteen points per game.

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Speaker 1: Competition got a little bit easier. But you cut you

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Speaker 1: cut swords and snaps in half. You know, you add

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Speaker 1: Melvin Ingram, you move Chris Jones back inside, you get

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Speaker 1: Willie gay Moore stabs. You know, you get char Various

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Speaker 1: Ward back healthy. So there's a lot going on with

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Speaker 1: its events. Still bad defense, but not the bottom of

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Speaker 1: the Barrett worse than the league. So I think the

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Speaker 1: defense has approved a bit. Dal should move the ball.

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Speaker 1: But I like the Chiefs here special team's advantage, coaching advantage.

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Speaker 1: I trust what this offense is doing, and I trust

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Speaker 1: Kansas City to get this win at home. I still

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Speaker 1: think that they're a little undervalued in the market from

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Speaker 1: what we've seen earlier in the year. This is still

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Speaker 1: the number one offense. Honestly, you sold me because after

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Speaker 1: the Raider game, I told myself, like, the Chiefs aren't

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Speaker 1: just gonna win this division, They're just gonna start getting rolling. Well,

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Speaker 1: if you like them to finish strong, this is the

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Speaker 1: last time you're gonna see a line like this right

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Speaker 1: at home minus two. So if you if you like

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Speaker 1: them to be an eleven win team, they win this game,

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Speaker 1: that that thing's gonna switch fast, right, It's not gonna

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Speaker 1: take the market long to pivot on them. You yeah,

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Speaker 1: you win this state, win this game by fourteen, you

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Speaker 1: will never see the Chiefs under three at home again,

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Speaker 1: maybe until my home's contract is up. Yeah, I agree. Well,

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Speaker 1: how about this one's tricky because Green Bay to totally

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Speaker 1: judge him last week, Aaron didn't get the practice. We've

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Speaker 1: seen what they look like before he got COVID and

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Speaker 1: was practicing. They're pretty good, but they've had some injuries.

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Speaker 1: Minnesota kind of like the Niners that their record doesn't

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Speaker 1: quite match up their talent. I mean, justin Jefferson's a star.

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Speaker 1: Cousins has been rolling that place, fucking rocks. I want

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Speaker 1: to take Minnesota plus two and a half. But I've

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Speaker 1: I've just seen Cousins and some of these important games.

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Speaker 1: Now this is not Sunday night or Monday night. This

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Speaker 1: is his This is when he thrives ten am for

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Speaker 1: us on the West coast. But you know plus two

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Speaker 1: and a half is it's pretty tasty. You watch that

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Speaker 1: Charger game, I mean they kicked the Chargers, but I

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Speaker 1: mean I know the score. To me, the score was, uh,

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Speaker 1: the game was not as close as the score. I

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Speaker 1: thought they I thought they worked them. So I mean,

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Speaker 1: I I guess i'd lean plus two and a half.

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Speaker 1: How about you, Yeah, I think you gotta take the void, sire.

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Speaker 1: I mean, these two teams, if you put their resumes

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Speaker 1: next to each other, you probably couldn't tell the difference

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Speaker 1: between them. Uh. If you look at look, the Packers

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Speaker 1: are eight and two, the Vikings are four and five.

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Speaker 1: If you look at estimated wins, which looks at win

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Speaker 1: probably estimated win probability the end of games, they each

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Speaker 1: have six point four wins on the dot. They've been

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Speaker 1: pretty equal. You can look at two games just to

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Speaker 1: show that the Packers have won these coin flips and

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Speaker 1: the Vikings haven't. The Vikings they've lost two overtime games.

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Speaker 1: They've been every single game, they haven't lost by more

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Speaker 1: than one possession. But look at Cincinnati and Arizona. They

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Speaker 1: both played them, they both played them on the road.

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Speaker 1: The Packers won in Arizona because Arizona throw a pick

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Speaker 1: at the goal line of the last second. Well, Minnesota

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Speaker 1: missed a thirty yard field goal to win it at

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Speaker 1: the end. How about Cincinnati. Green Bay won and overtime

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Speaker 1: in a game where there was ten missed field goals.

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Speaker 1: Minnesota lost in overtime in Cincinnati on a questionable fumble call. So,

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Speaker 1: I mean, all these games, if you look at some

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Speaker 1: common potents, they're so close that green Bay just kind

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Speaker 1: of won the coin flip and the Minnesota didn't. These

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Speaker 1: teams have been pretty equal all year. And now you're

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Speaker 1: getting two and a half points at home in the

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Speaker 1: Viking season. I mean there are four and five they

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Speaker 1: need this game, and there they have a pretty good

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Speaker 1: matchup here. The Packers defense is you have to give

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Speaker 1: credit to Joe Barry. I mean, they're they're playing really

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Speaker 1: well given all the injuries. I mean, you don't have

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Speaker 1: said Arius Smith, you don't have Jerry Alexander. Now you've

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Speaker 1: now lost maybe Rashaan, Gary Whitney, Mercials is out. For

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Speaker 1: the lots of injuries across the board. I don't think

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Speaker 1: that their corners can hold up here. And the run

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Speaker 1: defense is still bad. Dalvin Cook who torn apart in

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Speaker 1: Lambeau last year and in a straight up whin, I

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Speaker 1: think you can have a day here. The other side

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Speaker 1: of the ball. Your defense gets healthier. Peterson should be back,

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Speaker 1: Bar should be back, Harrison Smith should be back, and

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Speaker 1: the defense is playing really well. So uh you know,

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Speaker 1: and there's injuries on the offensive line and skill positions

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Speaker 1: for Green Bay. So I think you're getting Minnesota to

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Speaker 1: discount here. Yes, it's scary, it won't be easy. Riders

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Speaker 1: is gonna put up a fight, But I think you

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Speaker 1: have to buy the Vikings here. These two teams have

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Speaker 1: been pretty even all year and just a coin flip

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Speaker 1: the coin and these coin flip games is just due

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Speaker 1: to flip to the Viking side here. So I like

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Speaker 1: Minnesota catching points at home here that that that place

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Speaker 1: is going to be berserk. I kick off the horn.

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Speaker 1: The crazy thing is if Minnesota wins this game and

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Speaker 1: the Niners take care of business in Jacksonville, you know

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Speaker 1: you got an early, like Thanksgiving Day week playoff game

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Speaker 1: next week, Niners Minnesota. That game would be huge as

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Speaker 1: long as both those I mean, if Minnesota upsets him

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Speaker 1: here and the Niners take care of business, that's we'll

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Speaker 1: be talking about that bad boy next week, and then

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Speaker 1: you have then you'll have your That'll be just a

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Speaker 1: massive tiebreaker potentially for for sure. Let's let's pivot to

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Speaker 1: the NFC West. Uh, everyone, I just would imagine thinks

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Speaker 1: Seattle sucks. The Russell looked pretty bad. I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: no way around it. The cards have just been Colt

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Speaker 1: McCoy came back to Earth and just got kind of

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Speaker 1: blitz creaked by the Carolina Panthers and Newton and p J. Walker.

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Speaker 1: It's a weird spot. I would imagine most people assume

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Speaker 1: Kyler Murray's gonna play. I think he's said, yesterday's feeling

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Speaker 1: a lot better practicing this week. Uh, you know, it

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Speaker 1: just feels like there's some value here with Seattle. You

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Speaker 1: get Russell another week of practice. But I saw to

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Speaker 1: day before we hopped on DEKs banged up, you know.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's a pretty big deal for them.

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Speaker 1: He's obviously played well in those games. But these teams

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Speaker 1: play each other really tight. You know, even before Kingsbury,

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Speaker 1: they they I would say, the last seven eight years,

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Speaker 1: they've just played some pretty uh legendary games. I guess

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Speaker 1: Seattle at home getting points, it's just not something you know,

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Speaker 1: we we've talked before beginning of the year lines. If

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Speaker 1: I would have at the beginning of the year line,

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Speaker 1: Seattle is not getting two and a half points right

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Speaker 1: in this matchup. So that's just the value there probably,

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Speaker 1: I don't know how you go away from that. You

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Speaker 1: gotta take Seattle here. Um. Russell Wilson is trying to

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Speaker 1: avoid losing three consecutive starts for the first time in

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Speaker 1: his career. It's never happened off of a loss. He's

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Speaker 1: like sixty percent against the spread as an underdog, He's

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Speaker 1: sixty percent against the spread. I mean, there is just

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Speaker 1: there's just so many trends I can get into watch

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Speaker 1: Seattle as a player, but just from a broader view, look,

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Speaker 1: Seattle last week played awful, but it was Russell Wilson's

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Speaker 1: first start back from injury that we've seen that all year.

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Speaker 1: We saw, I mean, just Tyrod Tabor look like you

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Speaker 1: never threw a football before in Miami, Dak Prescott looked

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Speaker 1: like he's never completed a past and his first start

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Speaker 1: back against Denver. So I mean there was some Russy

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Speaker 1: had a shake off. Now the sky is falling, The

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Speaker 1: sky is falling. I saw there's some articles in Seattle

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Speaker 1: it's the end of the Russell Wilson ere They're already

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Speaker 1: just they're moving off from Russe Wilson already. All right,

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Speaker 1: just probably breaks now. I mean when we just talked

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Speaker 1: about Minnesota in the San Fran they win this game,

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Speaker 1: they're back in the potential wild corner and this is

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Speaker 1: their season. Meanwhile, Arizona, who I still think it's a

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Speaker 1: tad overrated. We talked about this last week. They've had

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Speaker 1: a lot of fumble luck, third down luck, fourth down luck,

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Speaker 1: just a lot of things that have gone their way

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Speaker 1: all year. They're sitting pretty right now with their record

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Speaker 1: and they will buy next week. Yeah. I tend to

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Speaker 1: think that Kyler Murray it's gonna get all out here.

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Speaker 1: And DeAndre Hopkins maybe the same. All the talk and

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Speaker 1: everything the Cliff says that we want to be cautious

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Speaker 1: because last year Mary had an injury that lingered all year,

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Speaker 1: and I would imagine the Cardinals have bigger plans this

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Speaker 1: season and they should make the playoffs, so I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be shocked once again for the third weekend row It's

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Speaker 1: announced Mary's out, and then this sn will flip and

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Speaker 1: Seattle will be a three or three half point favorite,

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Speaker 1: which is you'll get great closing my belt. But even

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Speaker 1: if he does play, I still like Seattle. You're catching points,

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Speaker 1: and I assume he won't be a hundred percent mobile,

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Speaker 1: which is just such a massive aspect of the Cardinals offenses.

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Speaker 1: Mary's mobility and his his ability to make play. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think you have to buy low on Seattle here

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Speaker 1: for a multitude of reasons, and you know you might.

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Speaker 1: You know, I get lucky and Arizona is shorthanded and

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Speaker 1: you have Colt mccoyan there again, or Chris Traveler. NFL

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Speaker 1: text next step to five two in Arizona. Okay, I

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Speaker 1: got to ask you a quick bonus game. This is

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Speaker 1: kind of an early a f C, you know, wildcard

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Speaker 1: tiebreaker matchup here with the Bengals going to the Raiders. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know the Raiders just a couple weeks ago, we're

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Speaker 1: five and two, and now looks like are they just

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Speaker 1: about to be five and five? The Bengals who after

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Speaker 1: that Raven game everyone loved him, and now it feels like,

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Speaker 1: are they actually kind of who we thought they were?

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Speaker 1: Maybe a six seven win team? You know, it's a

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Speaker 1: pick them right now from what I see. I honestly

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Speaker 1: I guess I would take the Raiders just because they're

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Speaker 1: at home, but I do not feel good about the

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Speaker 1: way they've been trending these last two weeks. Is their

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Speaker 1: value in the Bengals or they Is this just the

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Speaker 1: ultimate coin fl of game? Yeah? This this game if

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Speaker 1: you have no clue, and I make it right around

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Speaker 1: to pick Um, I can convince myself on either side.

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Speaker 1: I think it's really gonna come down to how much

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Speaker 1: pressure can the Raiders edge rushers get because I don't

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Speaker 1: think there's their secondary is gonna hold up here, but

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Speaker 1: they can get pressures since he has a questionable offensive line.

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Speaker 1: How much can they bother Barrow? You're right, there's something

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Speaker 1: that seems with the Raiders that's trending down. But same

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Speaker 1: with the Bengals, so we'll see how they reap. Zack Taylor,

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Speaker 1: by the way, has been horrific on the road in

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Speaker 1: his career as well. Not a big fan of him.

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Speaker 1: Let's put the charity on top my guy. Uh, I'm

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Speaker 1: not now even forgetting his name. When one of the

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Speaker 1: ref whoever did the drone boger who I hate in

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Speaker 1: his games, he always just he did that person, he's

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Speaker 1: doing that game too, so I stay away from it.

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Speaker 1: I try to stay away from his game from impossible.

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Speaker 1: I have nothing there. If you're looking for another VAT

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Speaker 1: and want to hold your nose, I like the Titans.

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Speaker 1: I like the Texans. Excuse me plus ten and a

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Speaker 1: half against the Titans, hold your nose, spot. But I

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Speaker 1: think Tyrod Tail will be better after the bye. I

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Speaker 1: think that Tennessee will be a little could be a

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Speaker 1: little flat here. Look look at these Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams, Saints.

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Speaker 1: That's their last five games with five and oh in

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Speaker 1: those games. Patriots next week. This is a spot where

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Speaker 1: you come out a little flat against the Texans. Texans

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Speaker 1: off of a bye, Tyrod Taylor, I think we'll play better,

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Speaker 1: can keep them in this No Julio Jones, no Derrick Henry.

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Speaker 1: I think that you could take ten and a half

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Speaker 1: in this division. Game won't be easy, It could get

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Speaker 1: could get a little scary. But I did bet the Texans.

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Speaker 1: You're good man, stucky. Have a good weekend. Absolutely two

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Speaker 1: brother the volume