WEBVTT - What Russia Does is Bluff, Says Friedman 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:13.040 Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm m Keene 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.560 Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:28.160 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Yeah. 0:00:34.280 --> 0:00:35.800 I want to bring in our guest now. I'm really 0:00:35.840 --> 0:00:38.040 please to say joining us here in New York with 0:00:38.080 --> 0:00:40.960 a distinguished career in both public service and the private sector. 0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:45.320 Our guest is Robert Hormats, the vice chairman of Kissinger Associates. Bob, 0:00:45.320 --> 0:00:46.720 it's great to have you with us, and I was 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:50.920 just flicking through what is a fantastic career in public service. 0:00:51.520 --> 0:00:55.400 You helped manage the Nixon administration's opening of diplomatic relations 0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:59.720 with China's communist government. UM, as you know, typically these 0:00:59.760 --> 0:01:03.440 are much orchestrated events when two leaders meets each other 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:07.080 with predetermined deliverables. Do we have any of that with 0:01:07.120 --> 0:01:11.160 this Well, they're not predetermined at this point. But I 0:01:11.200 --> 0:01:15.120 think that Trump has made a number of statements which 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:20.240 have been divisive in terms of US relations with Europe 0:01:20.240 --> 0:01:25.040 and US relations with our allies, in particular in NATO. 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:27.959 But he also has an opportunity, as other heads of 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:30.960 state have had in the past, other American presidents have 0:01:31.040 --> 0:01:34.559 had in the past, to really exercise leadership at the summit. 0:01:34.880 --> 0:01:38.759 I wish the President well. I hope he succeeds to succeed. 0:01:38.880 --> 0:01:42.800 I think is very important and other presidents have understood 0:01:42.800 --> 0:01:46.280 this as well, to take a strong leadership role, particularly 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:51.440 in standing up to Russia or the past Soviet leaders, 0:01:51.480 --> 0:01:55.280 and that is to really exercise leadership and say, we 0:01:55.360 --> 0:02:00.720 need you to stop imposing your will and your pressure 0:02:00.880 --> 0:02:06.240 and your disruptive measures on the Ukraine. We need you 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:10.559 to work with us in Syria to stop the continued 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:15.680 movement east in particular and southwest in particular of the 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:19.840 Syrian regime. We need you to work together to strengthen 0:02:20.720 --> 0:02:23.960 the ties that we could have between us. So he 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:28.480 could make a leadership statement by making progress on cooperation, 0:02:29.040 --> 0:02:33.919 constructive cooperation on Syria, constructive cooperation on Ukraine and u 0:02:34.520 --> 0:02:36.680 and many other areas as well, and back off on 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:39.360 his meddling in the US. If the President were to 0:02:39.440 --> 0:02:43.639 take a leadership role, he could really exercise a lot 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:46.720 of influence in this summit, strengthen our alliances strengthen our 0:02:46.760 --> 0:02:49.280 relations with the EU. So I wish him well. It's 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:51.799 a great opportunity for him if he wishes to take 0:02:51.840 --> 0:02:55.280 that leadership role as Reagan and Nixon and other presidents 0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:57.280 have done before him. I would like to pick up 0:02:57.280 --> 0:02:59.919 on that. What success, Bob, How do you define six 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:04.680 sense at a summit when there is no pre defined agenda. Well, 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:08.000 that's of course one of the questions. There's no defined agenda, 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:11.040 but doesn't mean you can't make progress on these issues. 0:03:11.120 --> 0:03:15.200 One would be to have an agreement whereby the Russians 0:03:15.240 --> 0:03:20.200 would stop the Syrian regime from moving eastward to the 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:23.440 eastern side of the Euphrates. America has troops there. We 0:03:23.480 --> 0:03:26.560 need to keep those troops there until their stability and 0:03:26.639 --> 0:03:29.280 not allow the Syrian regime to just go in. That 0:03:29.320 --> 0:03:33.000 will simply strengthen the Russians and the Iranians. Also on 0:03:33.080 --> 0:03:36.880 the question of Ukraine, to get uh some arrangement to 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:40.960 maintain the ceasefire that was once again reinforced or agreed 0:03:41.720 --> 0:03:44.880 in July, but has now begun to deteriorate a little bit. 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:50.560 That would be a success and some degree of of progress, 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:54.800 or at least pressure on Putin to stop interfering in 0:03:55.480 --> 0:03:59.040 American politics. We've already had these indictments. Those could be 0:03:59.120 --> 0:04:02.160 a point of strange for the president if he takes 0:04:02.200 --> 0:04:05.440 them seriously and says we have the evidence. We probably 0:04:05.440 --> 0:04:08.080 have more evidence that we haven't released yet, and we're 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:10.480 going to do that if it will release it if 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:13.040 we have to. That's a big problem for you. Russia 0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:16.880 needs closer economic cooperation with the US because economy is 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:20.119 not doing very well. So if you do these kinds 0:04:20.120 --> 0:04:23.679 of things putin we will do something to be helpful 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:27.000 to you economical, but we need evidence that you're cooperating Syria, 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:31.279 Ukraine and backing off interference in the US. Tough order, 0:04:31.720 --> 0:04:35.720 but areas where presidential leadership could be a very positive thing. 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:37.840 So I wish him well if he takes these kinds 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:40.719 of positions. I hope he does Investador harmts Um, I 0:04:40.760 --> 0:04:43.799 think of the Imperial Hotel in Tokyo is a set 0:04:43.839 --> 0:04:48.040 piece of Cold War architecture. I'm standing in one right now, 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:52.599 the acclaimed Hotel Vacuna build in nineteen fifty two, and folks, 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:55.080 if you ever want to see the ground zero of 0:04:55.120 --> 0:04:59.440 Swedish and Scandinavian design, Bob I I assume you stayed 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:04.360 in this hotel various semi trips. Is well, this hotel 0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:07.600 where I'm standing and brings back the nostalgia that President 0:05:07.640 --> 0:05:12.360 Trump always seeks for. Are we wrong in our nostalgia 0:05:12.440 --> 0:05:15.880 for another time, in our fading memory of the Cold 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:20.520 War and the tensions between Russia and America. Well, I 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:23.880 think we should bear in mind that during the Cold 0:05:23.920 --> 0:05:27.120 War we were able, in fact to work with UH 0:05:27.160 --> 0:05:31.320 then Soviet Union leaders to deal with some issues. And 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:33.320 one issue that he can deal with, and you go 0:05:33.400 --> 0:05:37.440 back to the Cold War, the so called New Start Agreement, 0:05:37.480 --> 0:05:42.360 which is to continue to reduce nuclear capabilities on both sides. 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:45.000 That's something that we we did to a degree during 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:47.360 the Cold War with Start one. The other two starts 0:05:47.360 --> 0:05:50.680 didn't work so well. But now we have a New 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:54.919 Start we could reinforce that. So we shouldn't we we do. 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:58.680 We should not yearn for another Cold War. We're fortunately 0:05:58.720 --> 0:06:01.120 out of that period which was very dangerous, but we 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:03.880 don't want a new Cold War. And therefore, I think 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:06.200 it is important to bear in mind the lessons of 0:06:06.240 --> 0:06:09.520 the past and figure out ways of working now with 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:12.920 who if he's willing to do it. But the only 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:14.840 way to do it is to be very strong and 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:18.240 resist his pressures in the areas that I mentioned. He 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:23.120 understands strength, and if he sees openings for dividing the 0:06:23.200 --> 0:06:25.880 U S from its allies, the U S from the EU, 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:29.800 fragmenting Europe, he will take advantage of. So the strength 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:33.560 that President Trump demonstrates is going to determine whether we're 0:06:33.600 --> 0:06:37.000 able to work with the Russians successfully or not. And 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:39.719 I hope he does show that strength because I wanted 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:41.479 to succeed. I don't want us to go back to 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:43.560 another Cold War. Well, let's pick up on that point. 0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:46.240 You've just mate. Um. If President puts In sees an 0:06:46.279 --> 0:06:49.760 opening to divide the rest of Europe from the United States, 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:53.440 it's that opening there at this summit. Well, if you 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:57.279 look at what the President has said about going it 0:06:57.360 --> 0:07:00.440 alone and his criticism of the EU and some of 0:07:00.440 --> 0:07:07.680 his criticisms of NATO, Trump may be inadvertently perhaps signaling 0:07:07.839 --> 0:07:10.280 Putin that he can divide the West, that he can 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:13.040 divide the US from Europe. So, therefore, I think that 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:18.000 it's important that Putin be disabused of the notion that 0:07:18.080 --> 0:07:19.960 whatever Trump has said in the past, that he can 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:24.160 continue to pursue his divisive ways and divide the US 0:07:24.240 --> 0:07:26.960 from its friends and allies which are critical to our 0:07:27.040 --> 0:07:29.640 security and to theirs. Bubbalo mats, it's great, can't you 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:31.600 have the really really appreciate your time here on the 0:07:31.640 --> 0:07:34.120 bloom ducks of Islands. The vice chairman of Kissing To 0:07:34.320 --> 0:07:37.040 associates with Tom Kaine in House, Saint kim My Saft, 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:53.000 Johnathan Pharaoh in New York City, John Farrell, and I 0:07:53.000 --> 0:07:55.840 are now advantaged to have with this Charlie Saloni's pastor Neck, 0:07:56.320 --> 0:07:59.160 who is well not a military brat, but he grew 0:07:59.200 --> 0:08:01.760 up traveling the world as a banker brat. His father 0:08:01.960 --> 0:08:04.960 was a leading banker, and he lived here, he lived there, 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:10.320 and he ended up in Middletown, Connecticut at Wesleyan University. 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:14.200 For a guy from Finland, what was the first day 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:18.880 on the perfect gorgeous liberal arts campus of Wesleyan University, 0:08:19.040 --> 0:08:22.760 one of the toughest ants in America. Well, I exactly. 0:08:22.760 --> 0:08:24.960 I wanted the liberal arts education because I wasn't sure 0:08:25.440 --> 0:08:27.760 what I was gonna want to be. Um, it's a 0:08:27.760 --> 0:08:29.840 little unusually in Finland, where you choose you're to be 0:08:29.840 --> 0:08:32.320 a doctor or a lawyer or whatever you're gonna do. Um, 0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:35.840 I loved it. I mean, you know, you get to 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:39.559 work every day with brilliant people, learn read and then 0:08:39.559 --> 0:08:41.160 it's your job to see what you get out of it. 0:08:41.760 --> 0:08:44.800 Right that The theme that you studied at Wesleyan at 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:48.160 Helsinki and your work with the Finnish Institute of International 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:51.000 Affairs is to pick up and look forward from the 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:54.719 Westphalian system over to a clash of civilizations. Maybe we 0:08:54.840 --> 0:08:57.920 drag in for red Zakaria in a post American or 0:08:57.960 --> 0:09:01.280 a post Finland world, and we staggered or whatever, we're 0:09:01.320 --> 0:09:04.960 staggering too brief, Mr Putin and Mr Trump? What are 0:09:05.000 --> 0:09:08.880 we staggering to right now in international relations that affects 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:10.960 all of us? Well, well, this is just it if 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:14.360 I if I'm looking looking at it from Helsinki right now, 0:09:14.880 --> 0:09:21.040 it is unique that the US and Russian leaders both 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:23.880 seem hell bent, if I may use the expression to 0:09:24.000 --> 0:09:27.360 weaken and divide boding, can we say hell bent on radio? 0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:29.880 Is that? Okay? Yeah, okay, I got the big thumb up. 0:09:30.640 --> 0:09:33.720 But but both so US and Russian leaders want to 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:37.920 divide and break up Europe and within it, maybe even 0:09:38.040 --> 0:09:42.360 the EU. That is truly unique because if you're looking 0:09:42.400 --> 0:09:44.520 at it from from across the Atlantic in the US, 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:48.319 US global power has been built on and is dependent 0:09:48.679 --> 0:09:53.840 on these global alliances and friendships. The distinction to me is, 0:09:54.040 --> 0:09:56.959 as you correctly stay from the Atlantic, it is a 0:09:57.000 --> 0:10:01.520 coalesced Europe wrapped around the symbols of Germany, France, maybe 0:10:01.520 --> 0:10:05.520 the United Kingdom. Europe, which is a larger economy than 0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:10.480 the United States, is the Finland's the Lithuanias, et cetera 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:15.720 of Europe. How much do we get wrong the parts 0:10:15.760 --> 0:10:19.360 in the sums of Europe. It's not just angela miracle 0:10:19.440 --> 0:10:22.120 and what she says next, well, it's it's correct, and 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:26.040 it's a small ones that you can desperately needs something 0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:30.600 bigger to belong to, like the EU, because Finland by 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:35.160 itself doesn't necessarily do well in the geopolitical game globally. 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:39.520 Um I I guess if you say, is it's where 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:42.319 you can have innovation. You can you can have small 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:45.520 business ideas, and then you go to bigger countries to 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:48.320 get the capital. You go to uh California or somewhere 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:51.319 else to get capital for for ideas on clean tech, 0:10:51.520 --> 0:10:56.440 environmental stuff, so on. Can Finland become a Helsinki become 0:10:57.679 --> 0:11:02.160 their version of California. Everyone tosses around the word innovation. 0:11:02.679 --> 0:11:06.600 I met with Tyler Monaco, who's called this the most 0:11:06.640 --> 0:11:10.400 livable city in the world. A huge buzzier finner had 0:11:10.400 --> 0:11:15.000 a perfect flight up here from London. Can a California 0:11:15.080 --> 0:11:21.200 ethos come to Finland that informs Europe about entrepreneurship? I 0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:24.800 think it can. Um. There is a sense of wanting 0:11:24.840 --> 0:11:29.640 to make things better. Um it's one of my colleagues said, 0:11:29.760 --> 0:11:32.040 you know, Finns have this cross to bear, which is 0:11:32.640 --> 0:11:36.480 to improve things continuously. And that's maybe why Helsinki is 0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:38.920 such a livable city. Something may be good, but let's 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:41.200 improve it a little bit. And that I think is 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:45.079 one kind of startup mentality. Someone's already doing this, but 0:11:45.160 --> 0:11:48.120 let's do it a little better. I'm thunderstruck coming here 0:11:48.120 --> 0:11:52.640 as the ugly American fifty four miles to Westonia, twot 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:57.520 two miles to St. Petersburg. In my naivete of that 0:11:57.679 --> 0:12:02.920 statue by the Helsinki Cathie rulers are Alexander. Americans were 0:12:02.960 --> 0:12:07.240 clueless about this linkage of Finland to Russia. What is it? 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:11.400 In two thousand and eighteen. Well, we're neighbors, and as 0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:14.440 as through history and and and through the world, neighbors 0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:17.120 have to trade. You have to somehow communicate, understand what 0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:19.960 is the what are the other people thinking about? And 0:12:20.000 --> 0:12:22.600 that's not how I think most Finns view it. Trade 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:24.719 sent as many Finnish hockey players, if they don't go 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:27.360 to the NHL, go to the KHL, do all of 0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:31.040 this stuff, but then prepare if the day comes when 0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:33.360 when arms have to be picked up. So it's not 0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:37.000 necessarily an antagonistic one, but it is certainly a wary one. 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:42.040 Within the trade is the issue clearly of the moment 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:45.880 across all of these populous debates, which is migration. How 0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:51.040 is migration touched Finland. Well, broadly speaking, as we'll see, 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:54.200 not a great deal. But of course Finland and many 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:58.080 of the historical innovations were brought by migrants here. They 0:12:58.120 --> 0:12:59.920 had something they wanted to do and they thought Finland 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.319 is a good place to do that. Uh. Now, about 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:05.920 three years ago we did have something very unhappy happened, 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:10.400 which is Russia quite purposefully released a set of migrants 0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:12.719 or forced them to cross the border here. Uh, kind 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:15.640 of as a proof of concept. Saying, hey, we can 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:18.600 release people across the border, and depending on what you do, 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:22.040 we have millions more to go. Um. So that was 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:28.160 a less pleasant surprise. Always say when President Trump not 0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:32.119 urgueser talks, but jaw bones if you will. About American 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:35.880 manpower in Europe, that's troops that may be not stationed 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:39.360 in Estonia, but they train in Estonia with British forces 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:45.760 and and such. Explain why that presence is important in 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:49.520 this special relationship with Russia. Why do we need American 0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:55.360 troops training in eastern Europe? Well, again, because it almost 0:13:55.400 --> 0:13:58.680 doesn't matter if anyone Washington doesn't know about Estonia or 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:02.280 tart or telling our health and it's the US global 0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:06.600 military and trade power is dependent on these alliance networks. 0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:09.160 And if the US, let's go of one of them, 0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:13.560 shows he will not defend one ally, then across the world, Japan, China, 0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:17.760 everyone else is following from Finland's perspective, which is doing deep, 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:20.680 deep cooperation with the US, deeper than I think most 0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:25.320 Finns even realize. It's also important because we don't belong 0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:29.400 to NATO, so you want to have potential partners everywhere 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:30.960 in the U. S S is an obvious one. You 0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:34.080 mentioned hockey before. I've got one final question that Patrick 0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:38.640 Lane is wonderful the Finnish conversation. Contribution to the National 0:14:38.680 --> 0:14:43.160 Hockey League, to North American hockey is extraordinary. But there's 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:45.760 a gentleman that played for the Anaheim Button but Ducks. 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:48.840 I don't know why he had to retire. Tiamo Solani 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:51.400 was at the peak of his game. It seemed when 0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:54.440 he retired, Boy did he go out with grace? He 0:14:54.680 --> 0:14:57.680 he did go out well and and great to see him. 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:00.520 In fact, years ago, the first in of you ever 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:03.160 did was with Tim Moise Helen after it was season. 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:05.600 Uh so, yeah, great to see him and what a 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:07.800 what a great career. The best part of this is 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:11.280 our discussion of international relations. But frankly, the best part 0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:13.600 of this is not talking the World Cup, as I've 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:16.640 been doing for six weeks. Charlie, thank you so much, 0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:21.000 Charlie Solanes, pastor and achis with the Finnish International Affairs 0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:23.600 John Farrell. That was one of those hockey talk How 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:26.320 did you squeeze in ice hockey? I got ice hockey 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:29.240 like eighty five degrees here and I got ice hockey 0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:32.240 into it. I honestly don't know what you're up to 0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:48.200 say this morning, without question, within the tensions of the 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:52.120 Soviet Union of the past the Russian Federation of the 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:54.800 present in the United States of America, this is the 0:15:54.840 --> 0:15:58.160 interview of the day. George Friedman, you know from Stratford 0:15:58.200 --> 0:16:01.400 and of course his work with geo political futures. But 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:04.480 maybe there's not the George Friedman who at age seven 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:08.120 wandered out of Hungary. Mr Friedman joins us in Austin, 0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:10.840 Texas this morning. George, what was it like when your 0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:13.760 family fled Hungry? Do you remember that as a child? 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:17.960 I remember very little of it. The Soviets had taken 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:22.720 over in the country. The borders are closed, mine fields everywhere, 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:25.880 and my father was on a list to be arrested. 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:29.440 So does either get out or get out? And we 0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:33.400 went across the Danube in a rubber boat with machine 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:37.320 guns looking at us. Interesting time, Those are interesting times, 0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:39.840 and that it's a reality from the past. Do we 0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:43.160 need to be informed about machine guns on the Danube now? 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:47.000 And particularly does the president need to have an understanding 0:16:47.280 --> 0:16:50.440 about about machine guns on the Danube now? Or is 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:54.560 that a distant past. Well, the machiners aren't on Danube 0:16:54.760 --> 0:16:58.400 during the Carpathian Mountains. Potentially they're in the Polish border. 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:02.040 But the Russia and not anywhere as strong as the 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:04.800 Soviet Union was, and a great deal of what they 0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:09.280 do is bluff. Their economy is pretty close to shambles. 0:17:09.880 --> 0:17:14.240 The military is nothing compared to the American Uh. There 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:19.040 is of course a feeling of this super intelligence service 0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:22.760 that hacked our elections when they stole some emails and 0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:26.520 they send some twitters and some Facebook stuff. But we 0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:29.600 need to keep this in perspective. The Russians have played 0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:32.520 their hands beautifully, making them here at a global basis 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:37.359 that they're a major power, but they're struggling. Should we 0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:42.520 put weight to the twelve officers that have been indicted? 0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:45.359 Do you agree with Mr Mueller this is an important 0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:49.960 item or does Mr point Mr Trump have points that 0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:55.359 maybe it's overdone. Well, certainly, you know the idea of 0:17:55.440 --> 0:17:59.639 indicting foreign intelligence officers now open his door for American 0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:02.720 to tell officers to be indicted in foreign countries, which 0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:06.440 you know it'll be tips for tat. But more important, 0:18:06.480 --> 0:18:09.840 I'm really interested in wine Miller, knowing that a summit 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:13.760 meeting was coming, chose that time to issue the indictments. 0:18:14.600 --> 0:18:16.480 He probably had a reason. He probably had a good 0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:20.119 reason why. It's part of his investigation that had to 0:18:20.119 --> 0:18:23.560 be done now. But it really reshaped the meeting between 0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:29.000 the American and Russian presidents and seems to have pushed 0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:31.280 Putin a little bit off the wall. He made a 0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:34.240 tweet this morning it was extraordinary where he said the 0:18:34.280 --> 0:18:38.000 declining relations with in the United States and Russia was 0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:40.800 due to the stupidity of American foreign policy in the past. 0:18:42.000 --> 0:18:44.320 That is a stunning statement for the President to ake 0:18:45.400 --> 0:18:47.919 on walking into Putin. That certainly puts them in a 0:18:47.960 --> 0:18:52.040 bad position to negotiate Georgia's right where I wanted to 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:54.520 go And folks, this is why this conversation when Mr 0:18:54.560 --> 0:18:56.960 Freeman is so important. And we'll have this out on 0:18:57.040 --> 0:19:00.600 our podcast I hope later. Uh at Apple and Spotify 0:19:00.640 --> 0:19:04.439 and George Freeman. The bottom line is is Mr Pompeio 0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:06.320 asked to pick up the pieces. Now. There was a 0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:09.760 feature article full disclosure, folks, I can't remember right now 0:19:09.800 --> 0:19:12.919 the New York Times or the Washington Post today about 0:19:12.920 --> 0:19:20.000 General Maddis running essentially a separate Pentagon European policy. Can 0:19:20.040 --> 0:19:24.600 our State Department run a separate policy from the president's rhetoric, 0:19:25.040 --> 0:19:28.280 or is Mr Pompeo tied at the hip linked at 0:19:28.320 --> 0:19:31.880 the hip with the President. I would put it this way. 0:19:32.840 --> 0:19:36.719 General Madis can run a fire a separate policy because 0:19:36.840 --> 0:19:44.040 US military forces are overwhelmingly powerful, and he can do that. Uh, 0:19:44.440 --> 0:19:47.720 the United States economically is overwhelmingly props. And these are 0:19:47.760 --> 0:19:53.920 the fundamental realities. Now, how the administration organizes itself is 0:19:53.920 --> 0:19:57.119 an interesting question and an important question. But the most 0:19:57.160 --> 0:19:59.639 important thing to bear in mind is the relative power 0:19:59.720 --> 0:20:03.080 of the two countries. But it would seem very likely 0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:06.480 that the General Maddie, who has really had control over 0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:09.920 old military political dimensions of foreign policy up to this point, 0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:13.919 is it kind of running the shop of Southsian delegates 0:20:15.840 --> 0:20:19.159 if you're just joining us with us, George Freeman, Geopolitical futures, George, 0:20:19.160 --> 0:20:21.520 I want to go granular now, and I want you 0:20:21.560 --> 0:20:26.040 to inform our global audience and particularly American audience, about 0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:29.679 this area of Syria that is a focal point of 0:20:29.760 --> 0:20:36.439 tension between UH Russia between their support of Syria, between 0:20:36.520 --> 0:20:40.159 Mr Yaho and Israel, between Iran and I guess with 0:20:40.240 --> 0:20:44.000 America as well. And this is the distance of Syria 0:20:44.040 --> 0:20:47.600 from the Israeli border, and what each of these parties wants. 0:20:48.000 --> 0:20:51.960 What should America want about this most sensitive part of 0:20:52.000 --> 0:20:57.080 the Middle East. Well, put it into broader context, the 0:20:57.119 --> 0:20:59.960 Iranians have managed to take a great deal of control 0:21:00.240 --> 0:21:05.520 in Iraq. They are the dominant force in Lebanon, they 0:21:05.600 --> 0:21:10.760 have become a significant force in Yemen, and they're very 0:21:10.760 --> 0:21:16.040 powerful force in Syria. What we've been seeing is uh 0:21:16.200 --> 0:21:19.760 Iran kind of extending its power. Now it's thin on 0:21:19.800 --> 0:21:22.680 the ground, it's not really powerful if it was challenged, 0:21:23.240 --> 0:21:26.040 but it's there, and the Israelis are looking at them 0:21:26.240 --> 0:21:29.640 very close to their border, knowing that they can fire missiles, 0:21:29.800 --> 0:21:33.919 knowing that they could carry out covert operations, knowing that 0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:36.960 they can do all sorts of things. The Israelis want 0:21:37.000 --> 0:21:40.160 them back from the border. The Russians have agreed sort 0:21:40.200 --> 0:21:42.400 of that they would force them to go back from 0:21:42.400 --> 0:21:45.440 the border. But the question is how far Ten miles 0:21:45.760 --> 0:21:48.960 doesn't make any difference to a missile. The real question 0:21:49.200 --> 0:21:55.320 is here the Iranians are now threatening Israeli national security Metanya, 0:21:55.359 --> 0:21:57.800 who said yesterday that he and the president had to 0:21:57.840 --> 0:22:01.000 talk and they're very close together, and this is likely 0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:04.840 to be the major issue, there are any substantial issues 0:22:04.840 --> 0:22:07.360 at this kind of kind of disc ser I did 0:22:07.400 --> 0:22:11.560 a TV special George last week at broadcast. Folks look 0:22:11.600 --> 0:22:14.080 for it out. I'm Bloomberg Digital with Ian Bremer and 0:22:14.160 --> 0:22:18.120 Robert Kaplan, and of course we talked about Marco Polo's 0:22:18.119 --> 0:22:21.960 World and Kaplan's Duke Book and the Eurasia, which I'm 0:22:21.960 --> 0:22:24.000 going to take from the Straits of Malacca all the 0:22:24.000 --> 0:22:27.199 way around the Persian Gulf. Is there going to be 0:22:27.240 --> 0:22:30.840 a band of geography from Tehran to burn Root? I mean, 0:22:30.920 --> 0:22:33.240 is is that a new geography Americans have to get 0:22:33.320 --> 0:22:36.200 used to? Not really, we don't have to get used 0:22:36.200 --> 0:22:38.440 to it. We don't really have to decide to handle it. 0:22:39.119 --> 0:22:44.200 Ran is well, it Ran is domestically unstable. Uh. There 0:22:44.280 --> 0:22:48.720 was an uprising over the weekend Shiites throughout Iraq against 0:22:48.960 --> 0:22:52.560 the pro Iranian government. So we have to understand one. 0:22:52.760 --> 0:22:55.720 They have their footprint down. So did the Russians. To 0:22:56.000 --> 0:22:58.840 underneath it all that, I'm very strong. So what has 0:22:58.920 --> 0:23:02.359 happened is as do Wes has created, a vacuum has 0:23:02.440 --> 0:23:07.040 been filled by second grade powers. We look at all 0:23:07.119 --> 0:23:11.000 of this, watch China's response to the American trade initiative, 0:23:11.359 --> 0:23:14.399 and it's kind of weak and very nervous. The United 0:23:14.440 --> 0:23:18.159 States has to recognize the most important thing, which I 0:23:18.200 --> 0:23:21.680 think Trump sometimes it doesn't really deal with really very 0:23:21.720 --> 0:23:25.640 strong as a nation, and the one we're facing, like Russia, 0:23:26.359 --> 0:23:29.320 what's the third world power? It lives off of export 0:23:29.359 --> 0:23:33.080 oil and it can't control its price. Iran can spread 0:23:33.320 --> 0:23:37.000 if there's no one resisting it, but it can easily 0:23:37.040 --> 0:23:39.600 be rolled back. And the Chinese have their own powers. 0:23:39.640 --> 0:23:43.199 So I regard this Eurasian thing as a coalition of 0:23:43.240 --> 0:23:46.960 the week. They could get together. They can do these things. 0:23:47.000 --> 0:23:52.040 But uh, in the end, once the United States becomes 0:23:52.080 --> 0:23:55.280 coherent in its policy, there's no question that the guys 0:23:55.320 --> 0:23:57.679 in the back is well. This sounds like a conversation 0:23:57.720 --> 0:24:01.280 to continue. George Freeman just brilliant on this Elsinki and 0:24:01.359 --> 0:24:19.199 the submit. I want to bring in Chris Granville. He 0:24:19.280 --> 0:24:22.920 is a managing director for EMA and global political research 0:24:22.960 --> 0:24:27.800 for TS Lombardimi of course Europe, Middle Eastern Africa. He 0:24:27.920 --> 0:24:30.560 joins US from London. Chris Granville, thanks very much for 0:24:30.600 --> 0:24:33.720 being with us. UM you've you've said that you believe 0:24:33.880 --> 0:24:38.359 that the chances of Britain crashing out of the European 0:24:38.520 --> 0:24:45.639 Union without a deal are negligible. Why do you say that? Hi? 0:24:45.720 --> 0:24:50.080 There what It's a simple observation about the parliamentary arithmetic. 0:24:50.320 --> 0:24:54.160 The there is no majority in the House of Commons, 0:24:54.720 --> 0:24:59.520 the UK Parliament, that is, that would ever support a disorderly, 0:25:00.080 --> 0:25:06.000 crash out style of UK Brexit. On the contrary, there's 0:25:05.600 --> 0:25:09.639 a guaranteed majority that if the worst came to the worst, 0:25:09.920 --> 0:25:13.840 would stop that happening. So whatever whatever else could happen, 0:25:13.840 --> 0:25:15.760 there will be lots of political noise. There could be 0:25:15.880 --> 0:25:20.200 changes of leadership, changes the Prime minister, even changes of government, 0:25:21.119 --> 0:25:26.560