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Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm m Keene

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Speaker 1: Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I want to bring in our guest now. I'm really

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Speaker 1: please to say joining us here in New York with

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Speaker 1: a distinguished career in both public service and the private sector.

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Speaker 1: Our guest is Robert Hormats, the vice chairman of Kissinger Associates. Bob,

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Speaker 1: it's great to have you with us, and I was

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Speaker 1: just flicking through what is a fantastic career in public service.

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Speaker 1: You helped manage the Nixon administration's opening of diplomatic relations

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Speaker 1: with China's communist government. UM, as you know, typically these

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Speaker 1: are much orchestrated events when two leaders meets each other

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Speaker 1: with predetermined deliverables. Do we have any of that with

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Speaker 1: this Well, they're not predetermined at this point. But I

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Speaker 1: think that Trump has made a number of statements which

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Speaker 1: have been divisive in terms of US relations with Europe

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Speaker 1: and US relations with our allies, in particular in NATO.

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Speaker 1: But he also has an opportunity, as other heads of

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Speaker 1: state have had in the past, other American presidents have

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Speaker 1: had in the past, to really exercise leadership at the summit.

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Speaker 1: I wish the President well. I hope he succeeds to succeed.

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Speaker 1: I think is very important and other presidents have understood

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Speaker 1: this as well, to take a strong leadership role, particularly

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Speaker 1: in standing up to Russia or the past Soviet leaders,

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Speaker 1: and that is to really exercise leadership and say, we

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Speaker 1: need you to stop imposing your will and your pressure

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Speaker 1: and your disruptive measures on the Ukraine. We need you

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Speaker 1: to work with us in Syria to stop the continued

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Speaker 1: movement east in particular and southwest in particular of the

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Speaker 1: Syrian regime. We need you to work together to strengthen

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Speaker 1: the ties that we could have between us. So he

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Speaker 1: could make a leadership statement by making progress on cooperation,

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Speaker 1: constructive cooperation on Syria, constructive cooperation on Ukraine and u

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Speaker 1: and many other areas as well, and back off on

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Speaker 1: his meddling in the US. If the President were to

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Speaker 1: take a leadership role, he could really exercise a lot

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Speaker 1: of influence in this summit, strengthen our alliances strengthen our

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Speaker 1: relations with the EU. So I wish him well. It's

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Speaker 1: a great opportunity for him if he wishes to take

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Speaker 1: that leadership role as Reagan and Nixon and other presidents

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Speaker 1: have done before him. I would like to pick up

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Speaker 1: on that. What success, Bob, How do you define six

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Speaker 1: sense at a summit when there is no pre defined agenda. Well,

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Speaker 1: that's of course one of the questions. There's no defined agenda,

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Speaker 1: but doesn't mean you can't make progress on these issues.

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Speaker 1: One would be to have an agreement whereby the Russians

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Speaker 1: would stop the Syrian regime from moving eastward to the

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Speaker 1: eastern side of the Euphrates. America has troops there. We

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Speaker 1: need to keep those troops there until their stability and

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Speaker 1: not allow the Syrian regime to just go in. That

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Speaker 1: will simply strengthen the Russians and the Iranians. Also on

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Speaker 1: the question of Ukraine, to get uh some arrangement to

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Speaker 1: maintain the ceasefire that was once again reinforced or agreed

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Speaker 1: in July, but has now begun to deteriorate a little bit.

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Speaker 1: That would be a success and some degree of of progress,

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Speaker 1: or at least pressure on Putin to stop interfering in

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Speaker 1: American politics. We've already had these indictments. Those could be

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Speaker 1: a point of strange for the president if he takes

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Speaker 1: them seriously and says we have the evidence. We probably

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Speaker 1: have more evidence that we haven't released yet, and we're

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Speaker 1: going to do that if it will release it if

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Speaker 1: we have to. That's a big problem for you. Russia

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Speaker 1: needs closer economic cooperation with the US because economy is

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Speaker 1: not doing very well. So if you do these kinds

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Speaker 1: of things putin we will do something to be helpful

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Speaker 1: to you economical, but we need evidence that you're cooperating Syria,

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Speaker 1: Ukraine and backing off interference in the US. Tough order,

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Speaker 1: but areas where presidential leadership could be a very positive thing.

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Speaker 1: So I wish him well if he takes these kinds

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Speaker 1: of positions. I hope he does Investador harmts Um, I

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Speaker 1: think of the Imperial Hotel in Tokyo is a set

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Speaker 1: piece of Cold War architecture. I'm standing in one right now,

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Speaker 1: the acclaimed Hotel Vacuna build in nineteen fifty two, and folks,

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Speaker 1: if you ever want to see the ground zero of

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Speaker 1: Swedish and Scandinavian design, Bob I I assume you stayed

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Speaker 1: in this hotel various semi trips. Is well, this hotel

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Speaker 1: where I'm standing and brings back the nostalgia that President

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Speaker 1: Trump always seeks for. Are we wrong in our nostalgia

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Speaker 1: for another time, in our fading memory of the Cold

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Speaker 1: War and the tensions between Russia and America. Well, I

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Speaker 1: think we should bear in mind that during the Cold

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Speaker 1: War we were able, in fact to work with UH

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Speaker 1: then Soviet Union leaders to deal with some issues. And

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Speaker 1: one issue that he can deal with, and you go

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Speaker 1: back to the Cold War, the so called New Start Agreement,

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Speaker 1: which is to continue to reduce nuclear capabilities on both sides.

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Speaker 1: That's something that we we did to a degree during

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Speaker 1: the Cold War with Start one. The other two starts

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Speaker 1: didn't work so well. But now we have a New

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Speaker 1: Start we could reinforce that. So we shouldn't we we do.

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Speaker 1: We should not yearn for another Cold War. We're fortunately

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Speaker 1: out of that period which was very dangerous, but we

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Speaker 1: don't want a new Cold War. And therefore, I think

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Speaker 1: it is important to bear in mind the lessons of

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Speaker 1: the past and figure out ways of working now with

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Speaker 1: who if he's willing to do it. But the only

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Speaker 1: way to do it is to be very strong and

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Speaker 1: resist his pressures in the areas that I mentioned. He

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Speaker 1: understands strength, and if he sees openings for dividing the

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Speaker 1: U S from its allies, the U S from the EU,

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Speaker 1: fragmenting Europe, he will take advantage of. So the strength

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Speaker 1: that President Trump demonstrates is going to determine whether we're

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Speaker 1: able to work with the Russians successfully or not. And

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Speaker 1: I hope he does show that strength because I wanted

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Speaker 1: to succeed. I don't want us to go back to

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Speaker 1: another Cold War. Well, let's pick up on that point.

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Speaker 1: You've just mate. Um. If President puts In sees an

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Speaker 1: opening to divide the rest of Europe from the United States,

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Speaker 1: it's that opening there at this summit. Well, if you

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Speaker 1: look at what the President has said about going it

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Speaker 1: alone and his criticism of the EU and some of

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Speaker 1: his criticisms of NATO, Trump may be inadvertently perhaps signaling

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Speaker 1: Putin that he can divide the West, that he can

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Speaker 1: divide the US from Europe. So, therefore, I think that

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Speaker 1: it's important that Putin be disabused of the notion that

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Speaker 1: whatever Trump has said in the past, that he can

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Speaker 1: continue to pursue his divisive ways and divide the US

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Speaker 1: from its friends and allies which are critical to our

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Speaker 1: security and to theirs. Bubbalo mats, it's great, can't you

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Speaker 1: have the really really appreciate your time here on the

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Speaker 1: bloom ducks of Islands. The vice chairman of Kissing To

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Speaker 1: associates with Tom Kaine in House, Saint kim My Saft,

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Speaker 1: Johnathan Pharaoh in New York City, John Farrell, and I

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Speaker 1: are now advantaged to have with this Charlie Saloni's pastor Neck,

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Speaker 1: who is well not a military brat, but he grew

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Speaker 1: up traveling the world as a banker brat. His father

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Speaker 1: was a leading banker, and he lived here, he lived there,

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Speaker 1: and he ended up in Middletown, Connecticut at Wesleyan University.

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Speaker 1: For a guy from Finland, what was the first day

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Speaker 1: on the perfect gorgeous liberal arts campus of Wesleyan University,

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Speaker 1: one of the toughest ants in America. Well, I exactly.

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Speaker 1: I wanted the liberal arts education because I wasn't sure

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Speaker 1: what I was gonna want to be. Um, it's a

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Speaker 1: little unusually in Finland, where you choose you're to be

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Speaker 1: a doctor or a lawyer or whatever you're gonna do. Um,

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Speaker 1: I loved it. I mean, you know, you get to

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Speaker 1: work every day with brilliant people, learn read and then

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Speaker 1: it's your job to see what you get out of it.

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Speaker 1: Right that The theme that you studied at Wesleyan at

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Speaker 1: Helsinki and your work with the Finnish Institute of International

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Speaker 1: Affairs is to pick up and look forward from the

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Speaker 1: Westphalian system over to a clash of civilizations. Maybe we

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Speaker 1: drag in for red Zakaria in a post American or

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Speaker 1: a post Finland world, and we staggered or whatever, we're

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Speaker 1: staggering too brief, Mr Putin and Mr Trump? What are

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Speaker 1: we staggering to right now in international relations that affects

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Speaker 1: all of us? Well, well, this is just it if

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Speaker 1: I if I'm looking looking at it from Helsinki right now,

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Speaker 1: it is unique that the US and Russian leaders both

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Speaker 1: seem hell bent, if I may use the expression to

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Speaker 1: weaken and divide boding, can we say hell bent on radio?

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Speaker 1: Is that? Okay? Yeah, okay, I got the big thumb up.

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Speaker 1: But but both so US and Russian leaders want to

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Speaker 1: divide and break up Europe and within it, maybe even

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Speaker 1: the EU. That is truly unique because if you're looking

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Speaker 1: at it from from across the Atlantic in the US,

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Speaker 1: US global power has been built on and is dependent

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Speaker 1: on these global alliances and friendships. The distinction to me is,

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Speaker 1: as you correctly stay from the Atlantic, it is a

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Speaker 1: coalesced Europe wrapped around the symbols of Germany, France, maybe

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Speaker 1: the United Kingdom. Europe, which is a larger economy than

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Speaker 1: the United States, is the Finland's the Lithuanias, et cetera

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Speaker 1: of Europe. How much do we get wrong the parts

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Speaker 1: in the sums of Europe. It's not just angela miracle

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Speaker 1: and what she says next, well, it's it's correct, and

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Speaker 1: it's a small ones that you can desperately needs something

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Speaker 1: bigger to belong to, like the EU, because Finland by

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Speaker 1: itself doesn't necessarily do well in the geopolitical game globally.

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Speaker 1: Um I I guess if you say, is it's where

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Speaker 1: you can have innovation. You can you can have small

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Speaker 1: business ideas, and then you go to bigger countries to

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Speaker 1: get the capital. You go to uh California or somewhere

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Speaker 1: else to get capital for for ideas on clean tech,

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Speaker 1: environmental stuff, so on. Can Finland become a Helsinki become

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Speaker 1: their version of California. Everyone tosses around the word innovation.

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Speaker 1: I met with Tyler Monaco, who's called this the most

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Speaker 1: livable city in the world. A huge buzzier finner had

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Speaker 1: a perfect flight up here from London. Can a California

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Speaker 1: ethos come to Finland that informs Europe about entrepreneurship? I

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Speaker 1: think it can. Um. There is a sense of wanting

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Speaker 1: to make things better. Um it's one of my colleagues said,

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Speaker 1: you know, Finns have this cross to bear, which is

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Speaker 1: to improve things continuously. And that's maybe why Helsinki is

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Speaker 1: such a livable city. Something may be good, but let's

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Speaker 1: improve it a little bit. And that I think is

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Speaker 1: one kind of startup mentality. Someone's already doing this, but

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Speaker 1: let's do it a little better. I'm thunderstruck coming here

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Speaker 1: as the ugly American fifty four miles to Westonia, twot

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Speaker 1: two miles to St. Petersburg. In my naivete of that

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Speaker 1: statue by the Helsinki Cathie rulers are Alexander. Americans were

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Speaker 1: clueless about this linkage of Finland to Russia. What is it?

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Speaker 1: In two thousand and eighteen. Well, we're neighbors, and as

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Speaker 1: as through history and and and through the world, neighbors

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Speaker 1: have to trade. You have to somehow communicate, understand what

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Speaker 1: is the what are the other people thinking about? And

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Speaker 1: that's not how I think most Finns view it. Trade

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Speaker 1: sent as many Finnish hockey players, if they don't go

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Speaker 1: to the NHL, go to the KHL, do all of

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Speaker 1: this stuff, but then prepare if the day comes when

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Speaker 1: when arms have to be picked up. So it's not

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Speaker 1: necessarily an antagonistic one, but it is certainly a wary one.

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Speaker 1: Within the trade is the issue clearly of the moment

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Speaker 1: across all of these populous debates, which is migration. How

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Speaker 1: is migration touched Finland. Well, broadly speaking, as we'll see,

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Speaker 1: not a great deal. But of course Finland and many

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Speaker 1: of the historical innovations were brought by migrants here. They

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Speaker 1: had something they wanted to do and they thought Finland

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Speaker 1: is a good place to do that. Uh. Now, about

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Speaker 1: three years ago we did have something very unhappy happened,

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Speaker 1: which is Russia quite purposefully released a set of migrants

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Speaker 1: or forced them to cross the border here. Uh, kind

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Speaker 1: of as a proof of concept. Saying, hey, we can

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Speaker 1: release people across the border, and depending on what you do,

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Speaker 1: we have millions more to go. Um. So that was

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Speaker 1: a less pleasant surprise. Always say when President Trump not

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Speaker 1: urgueser talks, but jaw bones if you will. About American

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Speaker 1: manpower in Europe, that's troops that may be not stationed

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Speaker 1: in Estonia, but they train in Estonia with British forces

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Speaker 1: and and such. Explain why that presence is important in

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Speaker 1: this special relationship with Russia. Why do we need American

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Speaker 1: troops training in eastern Europe? Well, again, because it almost

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter if anyone Washington doesn't know about Estonia or

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Speaker 1: tart or telling our health and it's the US global

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Speaker 1: military and trade power is dependent on these alliance networks.

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Speaker 1: And if the US, let's go of one of them,

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Speaker 1: shows he will not defend one ally, then across the world, Japan, China,

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Speaker 1: everyone else is following from Finland's perspective, which is doing deep,

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Speaker 1: deep cooperation with the US, deeper than I think most

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Speaker 1: Finns even realize. It's also important because we don't belong

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Speaker 1: to NATO, so you want to have potential partners everywhere

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Speaker 1: in the U. S S is an obvious one. You

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Speaker 1: mentioned hockey before. I've got one final question that Patrick

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Speaker 1: Lane is wonderful the Finnish conversation. Contribution to the National

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Speaker 1: Hockey League, to North American hockey is extraordinary. But there's

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Speaker 1: a gentleman that played for the Anaheim Button but Ducks.

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Speaker 1: I don't know why he had to retire. Tiamo Solani

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Speaker 1: was at the peak of his game. It seemed when

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Speaker 1: he retired, Boy did he go out with grace? He

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Speaker 1: he did go out well and and great to see him.

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Speaker 1: In fact, years ago, the first in of you ever

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Speaker 1: did was with Tim Moise Helen after it was season.

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Speaker 1: Uh so, yeah, great to see him and what a

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Speaker 1: what a great career. The best part of this is

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Speaker 1: our discussion of international relations. But frankly, the best part

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Speaker 1: of this is not talking the World Cup, as I've

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Speaker 1: been doing for six weeks. Charlie, thank you so much,

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Speaker 1: Charlie Solanes, pastor and achis with the Finnish International Affairs

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Speaker 1: John Farrell. That was one of those hockey talk How

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Speaker 1: did you squeeze in ice hockey? I got ice hockey

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Speaker 1: like eighty five degrees here and I got ice hockey

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Speaker 1: into it. I honestly don't know what you're up to

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Speaker 1: say this morning, without question, within the tensions of the

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Speaker 1: Soviet Union of the past the Russian Federation of the

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Speaker 1: present in the United States of America, this is the

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Speaker 1: interview of the day. George Friedman, you know from Stratford

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Speaker 1: and of course his work with geo political futures. But

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Speaker 1: maybe there's not the George Friedman who at age seven

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Speaker 1: wandered out of Hungary. Mr Friedman joins us in Austin,

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Speaker 1: Texas this morning. George, what was it like when your

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Speaker 1: family fled Hungry? Do you remember that as a child?

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Speaker 1: I remember very little of it. The Soviets had taken

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Speaker 1: over in the country. The borders are closed, mine fields everywhere,

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Speaker 1: and my father was on a list to be arrested.

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Speaker 1: So does either get out or get out? And we

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Speaker 1: went across the Danube in a rubber boat with machine

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Speaker 1: guns looking at us. Interesting time, Those are interesting times,

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Speaker 1: and that it's a reality from the past. Do we

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Speaker 1: need to be informed about machine guns on the Danube now?

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Speaker 1: And particularly does the president need to have an understanding

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Speaker 1: about about machine guns on the Danube now? Or is

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Speaker 1: that a distant past. Well, the machiners aren't on Danube

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Speaker 1: during the Carpathian Mountains. Potentially they're in the Polish border.

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Speaker 1: But the Russia and not anywhere as strong as the

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Speaker 1: Soviet Union was, and a great deal of what they

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Speaker 1: do is bluff. Their economy is pretty close to shambles.

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Speaker 1: The military is nothing compared to the American Uh. There

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Speaker 1: is of course a feeling of this super intelligence service

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Speaker 1: that hacked our elections when they stole some emails and

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Speaker 1: they send some twitters and some Facebook stuff. But we

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Speaker 1: need to keep this in perspective. The Russians have played

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Speaker 1: their hands beautifully, making them here at a global basis

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Speaker 1: that they're a major power, but they're struggling. Should we

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Speaker 1: put weight to the twelve officers that have been indicted?

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Speaker 1: Do you agree with Mr Mueller this is an important

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Speaker 1: item or does Mr point Mr Trump have points that

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Speaker 1: maybe it's overdone. Well, certainly, you know the idea of

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Speaker 1: indicting foreign intelligence officers now open his door for American

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Speaker 1: to tell officers to be indicted in foreign countries, which

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Speaker 1: you know it'll be tips for tat. But more important,

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Speaker 1: I'm really interested in wine Miller, knowing that a summit

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Speaker 1: meeting was coming, chose that time to issue the indictments.

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Speaker 1: He probably had a reason. He probably had a good

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Speaker 1: reason why. It's part of his investigation that had to

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Speaker 1: be done now. But it really reshaped the meeting between

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Speaker 1: the American and Russian presidents and seems to have pushed

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Speaker 1: Putin a little bit off the wall. He made a

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Speaker 1: tweet this morning it was extraordinary where he said the

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Speaker 1: declining relations with in the United States and Russia was

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Speaker 1: due to the stupidity of American foreign policy in the past.

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Speaker 1: That is a stunning statement for the President to ake

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Speaker 1: on walking into Putin. That certainly puts them in a

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Speaker 1: bad position to negotiate Georgia's right where I wanted to

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Speaker 1: go And folks, this is why this conversation when Mr

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Speaker 1: Freeman is so important. And we'll have this out on

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Speaker 1: our podcast I hope later. Uh at Apple and Spotify

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Speaker 1: and George Freeman. The bottom line is is Mr Pompeio

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Speaker 1: asked to pick up the pieces. Now. There was a

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Speaker 1: feature article full disclosure, folks, I can't remember right now

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Speaker 1: the New York Times or the Washington Post today about

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Speaker 1: General Maddis running essentially a separate Pentagon European policy. Can

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Speaker 1: our State Department run a separate policy from the president's rhetoric,

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Speaker 1: or is Mr Pompeo tied at the hip linked at

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Speaker 1: the hip with the President. I would put it this way.

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Speaker 1: General Madis can run a fire a separate policy because

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Speaker 1: US military forces are overwhelmingly powerful, and he can do that. Uh,

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Speaker 1: the United States economically is overwhelmingly props. And these are

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Speaker 1: the fundamental realities. Now, how the administration organizes itself is

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Speaker 1: an interesting question and an important question. But the most

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Speaker 1: important thing to bear in mind is the relative power

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Speaker 1: of the two countries. But it would seem very likely

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Speaker 1: that the General Maddie, who has really had control over

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Speaker 1: old military political dimensions of foreign policy up to this point,

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Speaker 1: is it kind of running the shop of Southsian delegates

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Speaker 1: if you're just joining us with us, George Freeman, Geopolitical futures, George,

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Speaker 1: I want to go granular now, and I want you

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Speaker 1: to inform our global audience and particularly American audience, about

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Speaker 1: this area of Syria that is a focal point of

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Speaker 1: tension between UH Russia between their support of Syria, between

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Speaker 1: Mr Yaho and Israel, between Iran and I guess with

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Speaker 1: America as well. And this is the distance of Syria

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Speaker 1: from the Israeli border, and what each of these parties wants.

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Speaker 1: What should America want about this most sensitive part of

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Speaker 1: the Middle East. Well, put it into broader context, the

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Speaker 1: Iranians have managed to take a great deal of control

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Speaker 1: in Iraq. They are the dominant force in Lebanon, they

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Speaker 1: have become a significant force in Yemen, and they're very

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Speaker 1: powerful force in Syria. What we've been seeing is uh

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Speaker 1: Iran kind of extending its power. Now it's thin on

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Speaker 1: the ground, it's not really powerful if it was challenged,

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Speaker 1: but it's there, and the Israelis are looking at them

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Speaker 1: very close to their border, knowing that they can fire missiles,

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Speaker 1: knowing that they could carry out covert operations, knowing that

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Speaker 1: they can do all sorts of things. The Israelis want

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Speaker 1: them back from the border. The Russians have agreed sort

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Speaker 1: of that they would force them to go back from

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Speaker 1: the border. But the question is how far Ten miles

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Speaker 1: doesn't make any difference to a missile. The real question

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Speaker 1: is here the Iranians are now threatening Israeli national security Metanya,

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Speaker 1: who said yesterday that he and the president had to

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Speaker 1: talk and they're very close together, and this is likely

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Speaker 1: to be the major issue, there are any substantial issues

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Speaker 1: at this kind of kind of disc ser I did

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Speaker 1: a TV special George last week at broadcast. Folks look

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Speaker 1: for it out. I'm Bloomberg Digital with Ian Bremer and

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Speaker 1: Robert Kaplan, and of course we talked about Marco Polo's

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Speaker 1: World and Kaplan's Duke Book and the Eurasia, which I'm

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Speaker 1: going to take from the Straits of Malacca all the

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Speaker 1: way around the Persian Gulf. Is there going to be

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Speaker 1: a band of geography from Tehran to burn Root? I mean,

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Speaker 1: is is that a new geography Americans have to get

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Speaker 1: used to? Not really, we don't have to get used

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Speaker 1: to it. We don't really have to decide to handle it.

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Speaker 1: Ran is well, it Ran is domestically unstable. Uh. There

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Speaker 1: was an uprising over the weekend Shiites throughout Iraq against

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Speaker 1: the pro Iranian government. So we have to understand one.

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Speaker 1: They have their footprint down. So did the Russians. To

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Speaker 1: underneath it all that, I'm very strong. So what has

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Speaker 1: happened is as do Wes has created, a vacuum has

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Speaker 1: been filled by second grade powers. We look at all

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Speaker 1: of this, watch China's response to the American trade initiative,

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Speaker 1: and it's kind of weak and very nervous. The United

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Speaker 1: States has to recognize the most important thing, which I

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Speaker 1: think Trump sometimes it doesn't really deal with really very

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Speaker 1: strong as a nation, and the one we're facing, like Russia,

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Speaker 1: what's the third world power? It lives off of export

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Speaker 1: oil and it can't control its price. Iran can spread

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Speaker 1: if there's no one resisting it, but it can easily

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Speaker 1: be rolled back. And the Chinese have their own powers.

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Speaker 1: So I regard this Eurasian thing as a coalition of

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Speaker 1: the week. They could get together. They can do these things.

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Speaker 1: But uh, in the end, once the United States becomes

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Speaker 1: coherent in its policy, there's no question that the guys

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Speaker 1: in the back is well. This sounds like a conversation

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Speaker 1: to continue. George Freeman just brilliant on this Elsinki and

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Speaker 1: the submit. I want to bring in Chris Granville. He

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Speaker 1: is a managing director for EMA and global political research

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Speaker 1: for TS Lombardimi of course Europe, Middle Eastern Africa. He

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Speaker 1: joins US from London. Chris Granville, thanks very much for

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Speaker 1: being with us. UM you've you've said that you believe

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Speaker 1: that the chances of Britain crashing out of the European

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Speaker 1: Union without a deal are negligible. Why do you say that? Hi?

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Speaker 1: There what It's a simple observation about the parliamentary arithmetic.

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Speaker 1: The there is no majority in the House of Commons,

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Speaker 1: the UK Parliament, that is, that would ever support a disorderly,

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Speaker 1: crash out style of UK Brexit. On the contrary, there's

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Speaker 1: a guaranteed majority that if the worst came to the worst,

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Speaker 1: would stop that happening. So whatever whatever else could happen,

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Speaker 1: there will be lots of political noise. There could be

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Speaker 1: changes of leadership, changes the Prime minister, even changes of government,

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Speaker 1: but that will not happen. So in our view, the

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Speaker 1: volatility of in the FX markets, so the pounds sterling

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Speaker 1: perhaps in why the UK assets is on the one

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Speaker 1: hand inevitable because there will be even higher levels of

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Speaker 1: political noise on the domestic UK scene than we've already

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Speaker 1: been seeing in the coming months until March next year,

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Speaker 1: which is the deadline for the Brexit process. But that

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Speaker 1: noise will not lead to a true economic and financial shock,

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Speaker 1: so there will be buying opportunities along the way. That's

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Speaker 1: that's how we look at it, Okay, But but you

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Speaker 1: make it sound as if Britain has complete control over

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Speaker 1: the process, where by the European Union surely has a

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Speaker 1: voice in how this works out. Good question, and I

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Speaker 1: should have added that important detail. If the UK Parliament

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Speaker 1: refuses to ratify whatever version of the Withdrawal Agreement, that

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Speaker 1: is the treaty instrument by which the UK would leave

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Speaker 1: the European Union, then um the same UK Parliament that

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Speaker 1: refused to ratify that agreement would then instruct with governments

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Speaker 1: to to avoid a crash out in March, and the

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Speaker 1: obvious way to avoid it would be for the UK

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Speaker 1: government to request an extension of the two year deadline

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Speaker 1: under the famous Article fifty of the European Union treaty.

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Speaker 1: So that is, a departing member state and member states

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Speaker 1: who wishes to depart notify as the European Union of

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Speaker 1: its wish gets two years to prepare. And now as you,

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Speaker 1: as your question implies, any such requests from the UK

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Speaker 1: would need to be accepted by the other side, which

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Speaker 1: is the other seven remaining member states of the European Union.

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Speaker 1: So an important part of our argument is that in

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Speaker 1: those extreme circumstances, we're talking about remote scenarios here, and

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Speaker 1: the mainstream is just a smooth brexit in name only

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Speaker 1: going into a stand still transition lasting a couple of years.

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Speaker 1: But in this remote scenario, then the other Member states

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Speaker 1: would certainly agree to an extension because a crash out

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Speaker 1: of the UK and disorderly circumstances would be for the

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Speaker 1: EU to allow that to happen despite the UK request

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Speaker 1: that it should not happen, would be an actors self

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Speaker 1: harm and they won't do that. A theme that I'll

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Speaker 1: be honest, folks, I didn't have until I got to

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Speaker 1: Finland is that we have a very three nations centric

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Speaker 1: view of Europe Germany, France, United Kingdom. And you come

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Speaker 1: to Finland and you really have in your face, folks,

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Speaker 1: the periphery in the many other nations of Europe. Do

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Speaker 1: they have a big voice in the Brexit EU debate?

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Speaker 1: I mean in Brussels, is it about waiting to see

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Speaker 1: what chance or miracle wants or Mr McCraw or does

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Speaker 1: Finland actually have power within the Brexit debate? Well in

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Speaker 1: the in when it comes down to dramatic and extreme

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Speaker 1: scenarios like the one I just mentioned Tom, then yes,

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Speaker 1: because the unanimous assent of all Member states would be necessary.

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Speaker 1: So even smaller countries like Finland, and Finland, by the way,

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Speaker 1: is by no means the smallest member states, and the

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Speaker 1: think of Cyprus or even Marta, but they would all

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Speaker 1: have a voice and they would all have to be

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Speaker 1: taken seriously in their concerns, if they had any concerns

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Speaker 1: they wished, would need to be listened to. But in

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Speaker 1: the day to day negotiations and in the Brexit process,

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Speaker 1: it's also the case that smaller, smaller countries have an

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Speaker 1: important weight, and in particularly the Republic of Ireland by

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Speaker 1: any standards, a small member state of the European Union,

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Speaker 1: but one who's vital interests are involved in the Brexit process,

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Speaker 1: and the interests of the Republic of Ireland are being

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Speaker 1: firmly defended by the central EU negotiatives in Brussels, because

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Speaker 1: the EU will always want to show that it will

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Speaker 1: stand up for its numbers, and this is certainly doing.

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Speaker 1: The Netherlands is a slightly less extreme example, but the Netherlands,

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Speaker 1: again a smaller state which would be at risk of

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Speaker 1: severe We've got Chris Grantville, We've got to leave it there. Emia,

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Speaker 1: Global political research director for t S. Lombard, speaking from London,

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Speaker 1: HMM Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe

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Speaker 1: and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever

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Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene

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Speaker 1: before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio