Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day. If Bloomberg
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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karin Moscow.
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Speaker 1: dot com. Slash Powerful outcomes vix iron or arose nine
Speaker 1: dollars ninety nine cents or nineteen percent to sixty three
Speaker 1: dollars seventy four cents a ton, according to a price
Speaker 1: index compiled by Metal Bulletin, and that's the biggest one
Speaker 1: day gain on record. Futures this morning, meanwhile, are lower,
Speaker 1: with SMP Mini futures down six and a half points
Speaker 1: DOWNIE Many futures down thirty five and NASH Documuti futures
Speaker 1: down seventeen and a half decks. In Germany's down nine
Speaker 1: tenths percent ten Your treasury down seven thirty seconds, the
Speaker 1: yield one point eight nine percent. Nimex hered oil up
Speaker 1: one point nine percent or sixty nine cents to thirty
Speaker 1: six sixty two A barrel comes gold is changed up
Speaker 1: thirty cents to Twe announced the euro and dollar in
Speaker 1: six five and again one thirteen point five six. That's
Speaker 1: a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Mike Karen Muskin, thank
Speaker 1: you very much. Well for the year, stocks overall down
Speaker 1: more than two percent, the Dow and SMPA stocks down
Speaker 1: almost six percent, still in spite of the rally that
Speaker 1: we have seen over the last couple of weeks, and
Speaker 1: then today the futures suggesting a lower day ahead. Jim
Speaker 1: Paulson is chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. Jim, Uh,
Speaker 1: we have not had a great earning season for the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter, and the forecasts are for the next couple
Speaker 1: of quarters companies are still going to be struggling to
Speaker 1: make money, particularly on the top line. What do you do,
Speaker 1: uh if if you're an investor, you're down for the
Speaker 1: year already? Uh, do you take a chance that things
Speaker 1: come back? Or do you want to be sidelined for
Speaker 1: a while and see where the central banks, the political campaigns,
Speaker 1: the threats to Europe take us. Yeah? Um, well, I've
Speaker 1: had a I've had a target price this year since
Speaker 1: you're in a basically well in the year where we
Speaker 1: started it again, Mike, and but I have also arranged
Speaker 1: from eight SMP. I think we might see that full range.
Speaker 1: I think we saw hundred. I think we might still. UM.
Speaker 1: My guess is that economic data is improving UM and
Speaker 1: will not only back away from recession fears. Will we'll
Speaker 1: maybe get to the point of where we embrace an
Speaker 1: idea of a synchronized bounce globally and there could be
Speaker 1: some excitement that might take us up to the old
Speaker 1: highs and it maybe slightly above sometime this year. Yet UM.
Speaker 1: I think though, if once we do that, we may
Speaker 1: come back very quickly to the concern about inflation and
Speaker 1: cost pressures and how fast the Fed has to raise
Speaker 1: rates and how much the tenure you go, and it
Speaker 1: might bring us back by a year end to that
Speaker 1: unchanged level. One thing I would do is I would
Speaker 1: I would manage domestically to that unchanged level of year
Speaker 1: in UH my portfolio exposure. But I think the outside
Speaker 1: the United States has a different investment pictures. If they
Speaker 1: get a bouncing growth UH internationally, I don't think they're
Speaker 1: going to face imminent rate pressures like we will here
Speaker 1: in the United States. So I would take this opportunity
Speaker 1: to remain invested in stocks, but to move more increasingly
Speaker 1: outside of the United States. You know, on Friday, I
Speaker 1: was thinking, Jim paulse is that Monday cool explained to
Speaker 1: me the certitude that wage growth of some nominal, minimal
Speaker 1: amount affects the income statement of a multinational. I don't,
Speaker 1: but you know, I never give my opinion, folks, But
Speaker 1: no where do I see that in the literature. Can
Speaker 1: we just assume wage growth means less, you know, challenges
Speaker 1: on the income statement unless operating income ebit don down
Speaker 1: to the gap in that income. Yeah, yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: I I do think. I do think Tom that you know,
Speaker 1: for the first time in this recovery, you know, companies
Speaker 1: may start to face cost push pressures. I don't think
Speaker 1: it's just gonna be wages though, and I'd also think
Speaker 1: it's gonna be you know, interest rates and raw materials
Speaker 1: and and and the like. Um, you know, one of
Speaker 1: the most interesting things fastly things about you know, people
Speaker 1: are so focused on oil going up right now, for example,
Speaker 1: but if you look at raw industrial commodity prices, look
Speaker 1: at the c RB raw industrials or even the SNP
Speaker 1: gold sacks industrial they're making their biggest upward moves since
Speaker 1: the collapse and oil started in mid two thousand and fourteen.
Speaker 1: So I think it's gonna be a general interest rate,
Speaker 1: labor cost, materials costs, sort of pressure on margins that
Speaker 1: we haven't seen, uh in this recovery, because we're really
Speaker 1: haven't been a full employment again. If I look offshore, though,
Speaker 1: if I look at Europe, Japan and a lot of
Speaker 1: emerging world companies, they're at an earlier point of their
Speaker 1: earning cycle, just like they're at an earlier point of
Speaker 1: their economic recoveries. And because of that, they don't have
Speaker 1: maximum profit margins by his storage standards, and they probably
Speaker 1: will not feel the pressure of the US companies are
Speaker 1: going to feel in that regard. Jim Paulson, thank you
Speaker 1: so much. Greatly appreciated Well's capital management. Getting started on
Speaker 1: a Monday here. Um, as we look at a better economy,
Speaker 1: the jobs, Mike, I wanted to take some time here
Speaker 1: to summarize you remember remember the jobs report when the
Speaker 1: unemployment rate was like nine point two percent, and we'd
Speaker 1: all go hysterical if it went up or down a
Speaker 1: little bit. Now we're a point which is surreal, and
Speaker 1: I think the data is after three days of thinking
Speaker 1: about it as you and I do, seven what was
Speaker 1: your observation? Mine is we almost got the three thousand
Speaker 1: jobs with the revision. Was a terrific report. It was
Speaker 1: a good report. On the headline, the problem is the
Speaker 1: wage numbers, and we don't know and all at the
Speaker 1: same time, the hour's work went down. We don't know
Speaker 1: exactly why that is. We're gonna have to wait and see,
Speaker 1: but it is true that jobs. We have been adding
Speaker 1: jobs in this country for seventy two months, and you
Speaker 1: keep talking about you you were way out in front
Speaker 1: of this on a tighter labor market, within the job economy.
Speaker 1: I notice the aw meted rate came in and other
Speaker 1: rates came in as well. I mean, it may be
Speaker 1: a lot longer than any of us wanted, but you
Speaker 1: begin to think Dean mckie's not crazy at point seven
Speaker 1: two with his four point zero percent unemployment rate, call
Speaker 1: well a lot of people. I mean, if you keep
Speaker 1: adding jobs, jobs at this rate, you're gonna get there.
Speaker 1: I mean, just mathematically, but be interesting to see the
Speaker 1: follow on of inflation with your your has the ivy hurt.
Speaker 1: I mean, I like that you've got the I V
Speaker 1: Poll next year. You're being medicated this morning. This is
Speaker 1: not during our show, right, Peyton man is retiring officially today. Um,
Speaker 1: but it's good. I think the best line, uh was
Speaker 1: somebody who told me all the weekend It's good he
Speaker 1: didn't signed with some other team just to play for
Speaker 1: another year, because now he goes out with wasn't he
Speaker 1: the greatest? Instead of isn't that? Sad? Moment of silence
Speaker 1: as well for Dwight Evans, who did the same courageous
Speaker 1: thing with the Boston Red Socks a few years ago. Peyton,
Speaker 1: Mr McKee, for the many emails I've gotten. Yes, Mr
Speaker 1: McKee is generally sedated as we go through the show
Speaker 1: as he waits for the retirement of his Peyton Manning
Speaker 1: Future seven down Futures negative thirty seven. We have a
Speaker 1: terrific book on the show today, From Silk to Silicon.
Speaker 1: Jeff Carton will joined us in a bit. Bloomberg's Surveillance.
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