1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:09,879 Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. 2 00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 2: What is up Straight Fire FAMP. It's me Jason McIntyre, 3 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:21,440 Speaker 2: Straight Fire for Friday, January tenth, and we've got a 4 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 2: great podcast for you heading into the weekend. My main 5 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 2: man Adam Chernoff Right Angle Sports, Big Sports Gambler, Big 6 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:33,239 Speaker 2: NFL Gambler. He drops by, we break down all of 7 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 2: the games. Should be a phenomenal weekend and fortunately we 8 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 2: got it started with Notre Dame Penn State last night. 9 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 2: Whoo that was a game. Oh my gosh. You know 10 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:48,160 Speaker 2: that Adam Turnoff interview is lengthy, but I could probably 11 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:51,640 Speaker 2: do thirty minutes, no problem on Notre Dame Penn State. 12 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 2: Just an unbelievable college football game. Now listen. It wasn't 13 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 2: super high level football if you watch a quarterback play 14 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 2: in that the quarterback play was actually quite bad. That 15 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 2: being said, the game itself was tremendous because it was 16 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 2: close throughout. Its stunk that the under did not hit. 17 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 2: The score was ten ten heading into the fourth the 18 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 2: total was forty six. Okay a total, so you needed 19 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 2: twenty seven points in the fourth quarter to top the over, 20 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 2: and you get thirty one in just a thrilling, ugly 21 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 2: at times. Fourth quarter, the kid Jeter delivers in the 22 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 2: clutch for Notre Dame and he will never buy a 23 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:32,600 Speaker 2: drink in South Bend for the rest of his life. 24 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 2: Just a tremendous football game all around. I had the 25 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 2: fortune I've been shaken down cowhurt to get a hangout. 26 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 1: You know. 27 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 2: This is like I've said, this is a big year 28 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:46,320 Speaker 2: for me, for him, for the show. I don't know 29 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 2: what the future holds. And it was let's just say 30 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 2: it was a good hang and I'm not gonna some 31 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 2: of the There was a bunch of other people there, but 32 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 2: there was a pretty prominent college football person there. I 33 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 2: won't get into the person's name because I didn't ask 34 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 2: if I could mention them. But you know, we're having 35 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 2: fun watching the game, and I'm all in on Notre Dame, 36 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 2: and it felt like they got totally outclassed in the 37 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 2: first half. They're down ten to nothing. Late first half, 38 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:18,399 Speaker 2: Riley Leonard, who just wasn't playing good, takes a brutal hit. 39 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 2: He gets up and is staggering. The ref looks right 40 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 2: in his eyes from like point blank. Age waves his 41 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 2: hands and it's like nop, you gotta go to the sideline. Sorry, dude. 42 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 2: So at this point I'm like, oh man, Notre Dame 43 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:30,639 Speaker 2: is cooked down ten nothing and they got to go 44 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 2: to the backup, someone named Steve and Jelly and he 45 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:38,960 Speaker 2: comes in and unbelievably, he leads him down the field 46 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:42,079 Speaker 2: for points. And I was pretty stunned at that. Now, Listen, 47 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 2: we talked about it last time. Georgia Notre Dame. The 48 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:47,919 Speaker 2: middle eight decided the game. The final four minutes of 49 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 2: the first half, first four minutes of the second, Notre 50 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 2: Dame basically goes from down ten nothing to get the 51 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 2: field goal into the first half, get the opening kick 52 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 2: Riley Leonard's back drive down, touchdown, and it's ten ten 53 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 2: and they have all the momentum in the world. And 54 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 2: at that point it felt like, Okay, Notre Dame's in 55 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:11,960 Speaker 2: great shape. They've got this the superstar Abdul Carter. Oh 56 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 2: my gosh, how good is that guy? Listen. I had 57 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 2: him top fifteen in my mock draft. He looks like 58 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 2: a top five pick. Now he wears Micah Parsons's number, 59 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 2: and the box score has him for one sack, one 60 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 2: tackle for loss. That seems way way low. I'm sure 61 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 2: those numbers will be readjusted. That's a box four on 62 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:32,959 Speaker 2: ESPN dot com. I felt like Carter was in the 63 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 2: backfield every down. He must have been held three or 64 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 2: four times. I didn't see. I don't know if there 65 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 2: was one flag for holding, which is crazy. The refs 66 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 2: didn't call anything on the offensive side, but kept calling 67 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 2: defensive penalties, which killed me in the fourth quarter, and 68 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 2: ultimately it just people want to jump online after this 69 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 2: game last night and be like, oh, oh my gosh, 70 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 2: Brian Kelly's such an idiot. He made all these comments 71 00:03:57,440 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 2: and now he left it. Notre Dames in the title game, 72 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 2: like Brian Kelly's out here catching trays because Notre Dame 73 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 2: made the title game and listen. I like Marcus Freeman 74 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 2: a lot. I pumped him up as a Bears option, 75 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 2: and within like three days Notre Dame re ups him 76 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 2: and gives him a new deal. And I like Freeman 77 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 2: as much as the next habit. I didn't think Marcus 78 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:21,159 Speaker 2: Freeman won this game for Notre Dame. He didn't like 79 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 2: do anything special. They were getting body bagged in the 80 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 2: first half. I can't wait to hear what the halftime 81 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 2: speech was because they were awesome in the second half, 82 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,719 Speaker 2: But this game essentially came down to one play. It 83 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 2: was nip and tuck the whole way. Listen. The turnovers 84 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 2: were brutal, the two inner pass interference flags on Penn State. 85 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 2: I was irate at the O'm sorry a Notre Dame 86 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 2: after they had the interceptions against Penn State. I was 87 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 2: irate at those. But this came down to one pass 88 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:52,160 Speaker 2: late in the game by Drew Aller, And I don't 89 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:54,159 Speaker 2: know who was pushing this. Hey, he could be the 90 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 2: third quarterback taken. He looked good against Poise I don't 91 00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 2: know where that narrative came from. Did he look against 92 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 2: the Boise State Broncos. Yeah, for half he looked sharp 93 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:08,479 Speaker 2: as hell. First two drives specifically, he was incredible. But 94 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 2: I think this is closer to the real Drew Aller 95 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:17,159 Speaker 2: because this is up against really good competition, and you know, 96 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 2: we're inside a minute to play in the game, likely 97 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 2: headed for overtime, and he makes this decision to throw 98 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 2: across his body under pressure and it's picked off, and 99 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 2: it's like, woww you felt so bad for the kid. 100 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:31,599 Speaker 2: And then he takes his helmet off on the sideline 101 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 2: and he looks so young. Maybe I'm just getting old, 102 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 2: but he looked like a fifteen year old kid, you know, 103 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 2: And I just felt so bad for the guy. He 104 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:44,239 Speaker 2: just made an awful decision. And listen, he made awful 105 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 2: decisions all night. The first ball in the end zone 106 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 2: they called a defensive holding, was like, that wasn't even 107 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 2: a jump ball. That was just I mean, it was 108 00:05:52,040 --> 00:05:54,560 Speaker 2: so bad. It was intercepted so easily. And then the 109 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 2: one in the second half looking for Warren was so 110 00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 2: criminally underthrown that the Warren had zero chance at it 111 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 2: and the second defender comes over and picks it off. 112 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:05,719 Speaker 2: I mean, aller just wasn't good. But the game came 113 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 2: down to that play and then Notre Dame you know, 114 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 2: gets the ball a crucial third down Riley Leonard quick 115 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 2: dump off. Here's an insane stat. I tweeted about this. 116 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:18,239 Speaker 2: In the first half, or maybe it was the third quarter. 117 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 2: Notre Dame could not stop Warren, who's a stud, but 118 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 2: they did shut down the Penn state receivers Penn state 119 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 2: wide receivers. Are you ready for this? Zero catches in 120 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 2: the football game. How do you play sixty minutes? You 121 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 2: throw twenty three passes? You run I don't know, sixty 122 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 2: some odd plays and not one ball is caught by 123 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 2: a wide receiver. That's mystifying. Now you'd have to watch 124 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:51,159 Speaker 2: the tape again to see if that's a James Franklin 125 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 2: scheme thing. I honestly thought the Penn State offensive game 126 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 2: plan was money in the first half. Oh my gosh, 127 00:06:56,800 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 2: they look good. I mean, you know, Aller, but the 128 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,679 Speaker 2: run game they was for two hundred yards in the game. 129 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 2: Singleton looks good, Allen looks good, and of course Warren 130 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 2: is a warrior man. That guy's what a monster. I 131 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:13,559 Speaker 2: liked some of the direct snap stuff they were mixing 132 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 2: it up, and they notre Dame was a little off balance. 133 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 2: I thought Penn State had a good game plan. So 134 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 2: James Franklin of course falls to one in fifteen against 135 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 2: top five opponents, and he's gonna get crushed and it 136 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 2: was the time to replace him. Again. I don't think 137 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 2: this loss is on James Franklin. Guys. Again, we're talking 138 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 2: about one bad pick by Drew Aller at the end 139 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 2: of the game that cost Penn State. Otherwise it just 140 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 2: goes to overtime. Who knows what happens. This was literally 141 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 2: a coin flip game. Notre Dame led for four minutes 142 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 2: the entire game. That's it, four minutes. It was just 143 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 2: an incredible football game, and it wasn't a high level 144 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 2: football game. It was just incredible drama and theater. It 145 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 2: was exciting. Jaden Greathouse with a who has an unbelievable 146 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 2: cool name. He had one of the moves of the 147 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 2: year in college football. At the line of scrimmage. You know, 148 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 2: slow feet don't eat well. Great House hits the cornerback 149 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 2: with one of these shake moves that you see like 150 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 2: Jamar Chase justin Jefferson doing in the offseason. You're like, oh, 151 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 2: I can do that. I can get on a ladder 152 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:20,680 Speaker 2: and do some of that fun stuff. Great Hoouse hits 153 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 2: the kid with it. He straight up falls down and 154 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 2: then great House is wide open for the fifty four 155 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:28,720 Speaker 2: yard touchdown. That was an awesome play. But other than that, 156 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 2: like there weren't a lot of big plays in this 157 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 2: that was the only play over thirty seven yards in 158 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:36,960 Speaker 2: the entire game. Notre Dame could not really run the 159 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 2: football forty two carries for a buck sixteen. I mean, 160 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 2: Penn State played a really good game. They ultimately this 161 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 2: comes down to the Alayer interception. Now Notre Dame on 162 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 2: third down eleven of seventeen. That very impressive. But overall, 163 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 2: I thought this was a great game. I greatly enjoyed it. 164 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 2: Notre Dame advances to face the winner of Texas Ohio State. 165 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 2: We won't do a best bet because so I'll just 166 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:05,959 Speaker 2: talk about it here. Obviously lost on the under in 167 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 2: Notre Dame Penn State, excuse me, and I did hit 168 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:15,560 Speaker 2: the Warren prop. I hit Notre Dame. And what else 169 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 2: do we have here? Okay, so here's what's open. I 170 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:22,440 Speaker 2: have a teaser. I teased Penn State up to eight 171 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:28,080 Speaker 2: and Ohio State down to zero, and I also have 172 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 2: a teaser both ways. Mind you, Penn State up to eight, 173 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 2: Texas to plus twelve and a half. Now, that was 174 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 2: kind of a dumb teaser. It only goes through the seven. 175 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 2: It doesn't go through three. What's the point of teasing 176 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 2: through ten? Blah blah blah. I do think there is 177 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 2: a world where there's a shootout element here and Texas 178 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 2: is able to cover twelve and a half. But there's 179 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 2: also a world where Texas just absolutely gets smoked in 180 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,679 Speaker 2: this game. So I'm on Ohio State minus six. I'm 181 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 2: on the over fifty three and then the two teasers. 182 00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:58,679 Speaker 2: I'll look at props and if I see anything, I'll 183 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:01,679 Speaker 2: put it on IG. But we're gonna break down all 184 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 2: the NFL now with Adam Chernoff from Right Angle Sports. 185 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in 186 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio 187 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to 188 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 1: listen live. You know a guy, Jason likes to think 189 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:25,560 Speaker 1: he knows everything when it comes to sports. 190 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:27,959 Speaker 2: I know what sports fans wants. 191 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 1: But for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does. 192 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 2: Let's just say I know a guy who knows the 193 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 2: guy who knows another guy. All right, let's welcome into 194 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:40,560 Speaker 2: straight fire. Adam Chernoff. You know him, Right Angle Sports, 195 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 2: Canadian guy, big NFL gambler he is. I don't know 196 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 2: if he's still doing the victory lap over the Panthers 197 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:51,559 Speaker 2: four and a half over win total, just an awesome hit, Adam. 198 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 2: How you doing on. 199 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:54,680 Speaker 3: Man, I'm doing well. It's not the full victory lap 200 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:56,319 Speaker 3: because there was some bleed over to the five and 201 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 3: a half as well, which I think kind of sits 202 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 3: in between, but the four and a halfs I mean 203 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:03,320 Speaker 3: last sak you want to talk about sweating the bet 204 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 3: to the final drive of the season, that was it. 205 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:08,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, unbelievable stuff. Well we got we got a good 206 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 2: wildcard round here. I am curious overall on the season, 207 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 2: we saw favorites take off at a just a ridiculous clip. 208 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 2: I think I saw stat favorites straight up were like 209 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 2: twenty seven in one, favorites of six or more, whatever 210 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 2: the number was. But basically favorites were just hitting at 211 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 2: an alarming rate, and the books got crushed. I'm sure 212 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 2: you saw some of these press releases. Well we lost 213 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 2: so much to the public. Oh, cry for them, right, Adam. 214 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:38,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, the interesting thing about those stories is there's always tomorrow, 215 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:40,840 Speaker 3: and the sportsbooks seem to always be open tomorrow as well, 216 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 3: as bad as it's been, as terrible, and as much 217 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 3: as people have been winning, they're always open. Yeah, favorites, 218 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 3: historical run down the stretch. We were fortunate to navigate 219 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 3: through November and December pretty well with the service and 220 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 3: with the bets, but yeah, historic run, and it just seemed, honestly, 221 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 3: like so many these late games you watch as much 222 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 3: NFL as anybody in are betting all the time as well, 223 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 3: Like you know those games where you're expecting that last 224 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 3: minute drive or like the underdog who's getting a touchdown 225 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 3: or more, and it's like, Okay, here comes the drive. 226 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 3: Like honestly, for the last six or seven weeks, every 227 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 3: time that seemed like it was supposed to happen, it 228 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:20,240 Speaker 3: was like, oh, here's the favorite with the pick six 229 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 3: and they win by twenty and it just all of 230 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 3: these end games down the stretch have been really one 231 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 3: sided to the fairs. 232 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 2: Is that do you think just a luck of you know, 233 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 2: coin flip action or is there something to the bottom 234 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:33,840 Speaker 2: of the league is really really rotten. I mean, we 235 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 2: saw a lot of bad football, a lot of there's 236 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 2: like six or seven teams that were just basically unbackable. 237 00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:41,200 Speaker 3: I think it's yeah, I think it's a bit of both. 238 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 3: I think there's some luck in it. But also this 239 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 3: year there were three teams at the bottom of ratings 240 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 3: that were worse than any team finished the season last 241 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:53,559 Speaker 3: year and the season prior so, like last year, Carolina 242 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 3: was a little bit more than a touchdown worse than 243 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 3: an average team. And then two years ago, remember the 244 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 3: Houston Texans. They were in that same category like this year, 245 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 3: the Giants were incredibly bad. The Saints finished the season 246 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 3: incredibly bad as well, So we've seen a lot of 247 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 3: really bad football too, So it's a combo of both. 248 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 2: And Titans I think two and fifteen against the spread, 249 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 2: which is like a. 250 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 3: Prow down there as well. Yeah, they were as bad 251 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 3: of a season as any teams ever had. Ats. 252 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:21,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's crazy, and I like Callahan as a coach. 253 00:13:21,360 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 2: I just they don't have a quarterback. But all right, 254 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 2: let's get to the good teams, the playoff teams. Is 255 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 2: there any game that as soon as they hit the 256 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 2: board you and the right angle team were like, hey, 257 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 2: we got to get this before it moves, And it 258 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 2: was like the first release or bed or however you 259 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 2: want to phrase it. 260 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 3: No, because we had a lot of disagreement and there 261 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:41,199 Speaker 3: was a lot of divided opinions internally, and I'll be honest, 262 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 3: we were waiting if the Rams would have hosted Washington 263 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,400 Speaker 3: the seating flipped late. That would have been as big 264 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 3: of a bet as we probably would have made all 265 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:53,720 Speaker 3: season on the Rams. Like I was really circling that 266 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:55,840 Speaker 3: one and I had it in the same category as 267 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:59,079 Speaker 3: the Bills a few weeks ago going up against Detroit, 268 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 3: which was the big and strongest stance of the season, 269 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,720 Speaker 3: But that would have been there, so that didn't come through. 270 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 3: We didn't get it. The other one that we were 271 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:09,240 Speaker 3: really looking at was the Chargers, and it was either 272 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 3: against the Texans or perhaps if they were going on 273 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 3: the road into Baltimore. We really like that spot. But 274 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 3: I think the market has actually gone too far in 275 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 3: that game and it was too big of a correction. 276 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 3: So internally we're pretty split on that one too. Now, 277 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 3: some things have come up during the week that have 278 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 3: been enticing, but it was surprising how at the moment 279 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 3: of open it was a lot more disagreement than it 280 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 3: was agreement. 281 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 2: So does that whole fade Washington still apply to Tampa 282 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 2: versus Washington. 283 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 3: A little bit? Do we want to get into that game? 284 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 3: We saving it for later. How do we want to approach? 285 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 2: I mean, I'll let you go wherever wherever the winds 286 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 2: take you, if you will, But sure, I don't know. 287 00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 2: I mean I don't think that's the best game you 288 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 2: know to Rematchine, let me get one more macro thing 289 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 2: out of the way first, Okay, Adam, you know this 290 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 2: gambling industry now is just everybody's trying to latch on 291 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 2: and get money, whether it's walking bets with your boobs 292 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 2: bouncing around or whatever it is. Okay, We're at a stage, 293 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 2: it feels like, where people are just grasping any trend 294 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 2: numbers and being like, eric's a trend. You gotta hey, 295 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 2: you gotta bet this trend. And I just see so 296 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 2: many trends wild card weekend. I'm like, guys, these these 297 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 2: trend betters, they got their teeth kicked in all season 298 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 2: because they're trends. They're not predictive, as you've said many 299 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 2: a times, And like, let's start with the obvious one, 300 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 2: first time quarterbacks in the playoffs. Facing a quarterback who's 301 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:30,800 Speaker 2: been in the playoffs is like thirty percent. You gotta 302 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 2: bet that trend. There's a few of those this week, 303 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 2: including Sam Darnold and bow Nix. But like, how do 304 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 2: you handle when you hear trends and your team do 305 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 2: you guys are just like, oh, that's nice, thanks, moving on. 306 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 3: Well, let me ask you first. You mentioned walking bets. 307 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 3: Can I trademark sitting bets? Can I do that? Is 308 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 3: that doable? 309 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 1: Or I don't know if. 310 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 2: There's a big market for that, but go for it. Yeah, 311 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 2: it's you don't think it'll land the same, I not quite. 312 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 3: To your quarterback point nineteen and thirty eight is the 313 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 3: specifics for that staff ats. So it hasn't been good. 314 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 3: I think a lot of it's priced in one because 315 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 3: it's known so much. But also when we get to 316 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 3: the playoffs, home field advantage is magnified a little bit too. 317 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 3: And so whether that's reflective of that or not, Like 318 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 3: you think about the home teams and the increased home 319 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 3: field advantage, perhaps taking advantage of those quarterbacks starting on 320 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 3: the road in their debut, that might all kind of 321 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 3: encompass everything that comes with that as well. So stuff 322 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 3: like that that is mentioned so often and the so public, 323 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 3: especially in the playoffs where there's only six games, it's 324 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:37,520 Speaker 3: really hard to say like that's full justification for making 325 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 3: a bet because everybody knows it and the market certainly 326 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 3: knows it too. 327 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 2: The thing you do that I like a lot is, 328 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 2: for instance, X defense plays man to man coverage at 329 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 2: the highest rate. Take the Denver Broncos, one of the 330 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 2: biggest man defenses. Well, Josh Allen with his legs is 331 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 2: going to eat up man defense. Is Patrick Tartan turns 332 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 2: his back to chase Amari Cooper down the field, Well, 333 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 2: guess what, that's a huge lane for Josh Allen. I 334 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 2: looked at his rushing prop. I think I saw forty 335 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,439 Speaker 2: two and a half. That's a ridiculous number for a 336 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,439 Speaker 2: quarterback in a playoff game. But is that the kind 337 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 2: of thing that's baked in or no? 338 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean his average closer in the season has 339 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:18,680 Speaker 3: been in the low thirties, so you're seeing the premium 340 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 3: put on it. Like you mentioned, the Broncos a top 341 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 3: five defense for man usage, and Josh Allen when he's 342 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 3: facing man coverage scrambles ten percent of dropbacks, so his 343 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 3: scramble rate is up about four and a half percent 344 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 3: versus zone to one of the highest rates in the league. 345 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 3: So again with playoffs, obviously the MVP of the season. 346 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:41,639 Speaker 3: Finding something that is not known in a prop like 347 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:45,160 Speaker 3: that that is very obvious, It really hard to get around. Now, 348 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 3: he's certainly going to run a lot against the Denver Broncos, 349 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:50,640 Speaker 3: but the Broncos know that too obviously coming into the game. 350 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 3: So there's a lot of matchup stuff like that that 351 00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:57,560 Speaker 3: is hard to maybe find the full edge on, especially 352 00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:59,360 Speaker 3: in the prop market. Two on marquee players. 353 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 2: For a few weeks now, I've been saying, boy Bill's Broncos. 354 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 2: I hope that happens. I will put the mortgage on it. 355 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 2: I thought it would be similar mortgage well when Mac 356 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:12,920 Speaker 2: Jones was facing Buffalo in that playoff game. The only 357 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 2: luck that Peyton and Nick's got here is that it's 358 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 2: like a one pm kickoff, right, so it's not like 359 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 2: the nighttime juiced up stadium, which is what the Steelers 360 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 2: will be going into in Baltimore. But I do wonder 361 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,640 Speaker 2: did Denver catch a break there? This number has been 362 00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 2: pinging around. I don't know what people are seeing on 363 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 2: Denver here. 364 00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:32,920 Speaker 3: Well, the Broncos have a very specific path in this game, 365 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 3: and that is that they have a very good offensive line. 366 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 3: They have a loaded interior offensive line, and the biggest 367 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:42,480 Speaker 3: weakness of the Bills is the spine of the defense. 368 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 3: So if the Broncos can come into this game and 369 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 3: they can commit to the ground game early and they 370 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 3: can be effective with it, and they can open up 371 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 3: play action, what we've seen the Bill struggle with is 372 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 3: when they have to over commit guys to the run game. 373 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:58,919 Speaker 3: It really puts some of these corners on a bit 374 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 3: of an island. And I think Broncos are going to 375 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,960 Speaker 3: be able to have success off of play action if 376 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 3: they can really get the run game going. So I 377 00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:09,400 Speaker 3: think that's priority number one for them. And if they 378 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:12,359 Speaker 3: can do that, the Bills. I mean, remember the Ravens 379 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:14,399 Speaker 3: game and how one sided that was. I'm not putting 380 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 3: the Broncos run game on the Ravens level by any means, 381 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:20,159 Speaker 3: but that's a perfect example of the big weakness that 382 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 3: the Bills have. So the Broncos are not dead in 383 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,240 Speaker 3: this game at all. I think they have a path 384 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:28,000 Speaker 3: for success on offense. But to me, it's the other 385 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,159 Speaker 3: side contributing here. I think this game is going to 386 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 3: be a shootout, and I'm looking at forty seven. I 387 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,720 Speaker 3: think that is huh, it's too short of a total 388 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:35,120 Speaker 3: for sure. 389 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:37,679 Speaker 2: Well wait, wait, wait a minute, I'm thinking back. Do 390 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 2: you remember when mix In and Burrow went in there 391 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,160 Speaker 2: and they won handily. He was like twenty seven to ten, 392 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:47,120 Speaker 2: ran the ball all over Buffalo. My only counter is, Okay, 393 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:51,440 Speaker 2: Buffalo's got a really good secondary, good in coverage, strong safeties, 394 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 2: wouldn't Buffalo just consider saying, hey, you know what, We're 395 00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 2: going to stack the box and dare bon Nicks to 396 00:19:57,800 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 2: freaking beat us. 397 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 3: I think Bone has an opportunity to bid them if 398 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 3: they can complate that ground game. The Bill's defense is 399 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 3: very aggressive, and it's very attacking, and it's free flowing, 400 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,679 Speaker 3: and it's great when they're playing with the lead and 401 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,840 Speaker 3: they can play downhill. But when this defense is challenged 402 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 3: in a neutral game and that's a close game, I 403 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:20,160 Speaker 3: think it's far worse than it looks. And I mean 404 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,600 Speaker 3: visually on screen and during the games, you can see 405 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,440 Speaker 3: this defensive lineup front really getting pushed around in the interior. 406 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 3: And I mean Cincinnati in many ways was daring bow 407 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:33,640 Speaker 3: Nicks to beat them, and we saw some amazing deep 408 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:35,880 Speaker 3: throats that he was able to complete in that game 409 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:39,440 Speaker 3: when playing from behind as well. So there's opportunities here 410 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:40,919 Speaker 3: for Denver to move the ball certainly. 411 00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,960 Speaker 2: Okay, I take that back. The Bill's safeties are not great. 412 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 2: It's the corners. Benford's been excellent, Johnson awesome in the slot, 413 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 2: but the safety's Hamlin has not been great. Rap is 414 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 2: a bit of a drop off. Now, now you got 415 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 2: me feeling a little nervous about my Bill's Bill's bet. 416 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 2: How's this one? This was my biggest bet so far 417 00:20:58,040 --> 00:20:58,920 Speaker 2: of Wildcard. 418 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,120 Speaker 3: Well, hold on, you talk about the Bills for a sect, 419 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:04,119 Speaker 3: because I wouldn't be nervous in that regard because you 420 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 3: have Josh Allen. I mean, this is going to be 421 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 3: such a Josh Allen like trademark game where he can 422 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 3: drop back, use his legs as we talked about, but 423 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 3: his ability to take on linebackers, and how great Joe 424 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 3: Brady is at scheming some of these running backs open 425 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:19,680 Speaker 3: out of the backfield, and some of these rub routes 426 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 3: with receivers like Shakir in this quick passing game that's 427 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:26,919 Speaker 3: there all day against this Broncos defense. So I'm not 428 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:28,639 Speaker 3: trying to advocate that the Broncos are going to go 429 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 3: in and pull the upset. This Bill's offense has just 430 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 3: as big, if not a much bigger matchup advantage on offense. 431 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 3: I just think both teams have success moving to football, 432 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 3: so I wouldn't be scared about your bet. 433 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 2: So well, here's the actual bet. Bill's money line, Raven's 434 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:47,480 Speaker 2: money line, Eagles money line. Three teams playing at home. 435 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,679 Speaker 2: Two teams over a touchdown favorite. There's some concern with 436 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 2: the hurts concussion, but overall I'm not as bullish on 437 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,439 Speaker 2: the Packers as I once was. That to me is 438 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 2: kind of a safe bet. Those three teams on the 439 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,119 Speaker 2: money line. Now, I'm sure you're like, Jason, come on 440 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,280 Speaker 2: money through three team money line, give me a break. 441 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 2: But it pays out, you know, a thousand wins, you 442 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 2: like what eleven hundred probably on that. Where are you 443 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 2: on like a three team parlay this weekend? 444 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 3: Like you bring it? My default response should be that 445 00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 3: that's a bad decision to make, Okay, But if I'm 446 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 3: being honest, like it's it's hard to see an upset 447 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,080 Speaker 3: happening in those three games. 448 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,919 Speaker 2: Specifically, I think it a bad decision. Well, Ben, That's. 449 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 3: Why I'm saying, like it's it might not be. And 450 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:36,920 Speaker 3: that's a weird spot for me to be in to 451 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 3: say that it might not be. I think it's a 452 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 3: hard I think Pittsburgh is going to be more competitive 453 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 3: than they're giving credit for in this matchup, but that's 454 00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:47,880 Speaker 3: going to be something that comes from their D line. 455 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 3: But I don't think they're pulling off the upset in 456 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,920 Speaker 3: Baltimore I don't think bon Nicks is going into Buffalo 457 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,400 Speaker 3: and pulling off the upset. It'll it'll very likely come 458 00:22:56,400 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 3: down to that Green Bay Philly game. It's the idea 459 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:04,120 Speaker 3: of what you're proposing. As someone who's been betting and 460 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 3: working on the professional betting side for almost eighteen years now, 461 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 3: it sounds a lot worse than it probably is this weekend. 462 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 3: You might be onto something with that three team money 463 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 3: line park. 464 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 2: Well, so the other angle. I think there were a 465 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 2: few wildcard upsets last year, and again, Adam, this is 466 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,200 Speaker 2: the tough part Wildcard weekend. Historically, underdogs have fared well. 467 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 2: I'm not going to hit you with the trend numbers, 468 00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 2: but everybody wants to back favorites favorites a bit on 469 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 2: such a great run. Will that run continue or do 470 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 2: we see the dogs kind of barking and showing up. 471 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 2: I just give me your argument, how Pittsburgh maybe steals 472 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 2: this game. 473 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 3: Well, at Pittsburgh's seen Lamar twice already this season. They 474 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:44,119 Speaker 3: see him every year, and we've seen teams when facing 475 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,400 Speaker 3: Lamar multiple times have a little bit more success against them. 476 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 3: It's not a like we've all heard the NFC record 477 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 3: for Lamar twenty was it twenty four and two now 478 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,480 Speaker 3: with that game against the Eagles, And that's because there's 479 00:23:56,520 --> 00:24:01,080 Speaker 3: just a lack of familiarity and Pittsburgh ispletely opposite for that. 480 00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,720 Speaker 3: So it's a divisional game in the playoffs here where 481 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 3: if the Steelers defensive line, which didn't have Ogin Jobi 482 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,640 Speaker 3: in the last meeting we saw a couple of weeks ago, 483 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:13,080 Speaker 3: they lost Porter Junior, their best corner on the second 484 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,359 Speaker 3: drive of the game, and they were still able to 485 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,120 Speaker 3: be competitive in that game into the second half until 486 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,679 Speaker 3: the Wilson picked six. And again there was that Wilson 487 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,359 Speaker 3: fumble inside the five yard line when the Steelers were 488 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,399 Speaker 3: moving the football. So they've they've played him close in 489 00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,640 Speaker 3: the first matchup and made that ugly. The second matchup 490 00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 3: probably was a little bit closer than the scoreboard indicates 491 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,199 Speaker 3: at thirty four to seventeen as that final and just 492 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,159 Speaker 3: that familiarity factor I think matters, and the loss of 493 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 3: Zay Flowers isn't nothing. So it's really going to come 494 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,600 Speaker 3: down to the Steelers d line, if they can prevent 495 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 3: explosives and if they can just muddy up the game 496 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:51,640 Speaker 3: like they did in the first meeting. There's a path 497 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:52,480 Speaker 3: there for the Steelers. 498 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,159 Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in 499 00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio 500 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:03,800 Speaker 1: dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to 501 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 1: listen live. 502 00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 2: I'll tell you my second best bet because a teaser, 503 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,440 Speaker 2: because again I get a little skittish. I'm leading toward 504 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,440 Speaker 2: the favors this weekend, but you know how that works. 505 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 2: They don't always clean up. So what if I took 506 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:19,240 Speaker 2: the Texans up from three to nine. Obviously you're only 507 00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,199 Speaker 2: going through seven of the key number there, but I 508 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,680 Speaker 2: don't know that the Chargers blow them out. And then 509 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 2: the other one would be I would take Buffalo down 510 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:28,439 Speaker 2: from nine or eight and a half to two and 511 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 2: a half or three, and you just got to win 512 00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 2: by a field goal on a teaser. Now again this 513 00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,119 Speaker 2: is not you know, a side or a total, and 514 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 2: the lines are going to be sharp in the postseason. 515 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,919 Speaker 2: But you hear two team teaser in the playoffs and 516 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:41,760 Speaker 2: you're just like, oh, what Macintar, what are you doing? 517 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:44,960 Speaker 3: No, I don't think that anyone should think what are 518 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,160 Speaker 3: you doing? I think any teaser that you can make 519 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,719 Speaker 3: a six pointer at minus one twenty or better, and 520 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,640 Speaker 3: you're crossing through keys of seven and three. I don't 521 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:55,960 Speaker 3: think it's ever a bad bet to make, and especially 522 00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 3: in those two games you mentioned, you have two totals 523 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,159 Speaker 3: that are forty seven or less, which typically qualifies as 524 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:05,760 Speaker 3: what is called to be basic strategy teasers. If you 525 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,280 Speaker 3: can tease through seven and three with a total of 526 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,280 Speaker 3: forty seven or less, and you can do it at 527 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 3: minus one twenty or better, you're making a good bet 528 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:16,440 Speaker 3: and you're making the plus EV decision. So it's hard 529 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,719 Speaker 3: to disagree with that. We've talked about Buffalo. I'm with 530 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:21,720 Speaker 3: you. You get them down below a field goal like, I 531 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:25,240 Speaker 3: can't argue with that at all. I would say Houston 532 00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,359 Speaker 3: as well. I think Houston has a good chance to 533 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 3: pull the upset against the La Chargers, so I would 534 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,720 Speaker 3: agree with you on that side as well. It's just 535 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,800 Speaker 3: a matter of can you get the right price, which 536 00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:38,000 Speaker 3: is a lot harder to do in twenty twenty five 537 00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 3: in the sports betting landscape. 538 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:43,399 Speaker 2: So the Texans one's interesting because initially everybody likes the Chargers, 539 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:45,920 Speaker 2: but then you're like, really, Chargers favored on the road. 540 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,840 Speaker 2: Texans have been awful for a while, But there's a 541 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:50,879 Speaker 2: huge Texans fan at the herd at one of the 542 00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,080 Speaker 2: producers and he's like, I'm just telling you j Mac 543 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,200 Speaker 2: Stingley and Lassiter are going to be able to shut 544 00:26:56,240 --> 00:27:00,520 Speaker 2: down mconkey. And then how are who's beating us? How 545 00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 2: are we losing this game? And my only kept my counters, Like, okay, 546 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,439 Speaker 2: that's fair. A rookie wide receiver may struggle against two 547 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,919 Speaker 2: good corners, But what faith do you have in the 548 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,639 Speaker 2: Houston offense to do anything? I mean, since they lost 549 00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 2: Dell and Stefan Diggs, they've created and the offensive line 550 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:20,320 Speaker 2: is probably in line to get pushed around here. I 551 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,680 Speaker 2: don't like the Texans at all. 552 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 3: Is on the Lasser note, I would encourage anybody listening 553 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:29,920 Speaker 3: search Lad McConkie best player on Google and you'll get 554 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,240 Speaker 3: a note and like a video recording of the draft. 555 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 3: This year, he was at the podium. He was being 556 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,639 Speaker 3: asked questions and the question posted him was who was 557 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 3: the best player that you went up against during your 558 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 3: time at Georgia in college? And he thought about it. 559 00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:47,280 Speaker 3: He said, it's an easy answer. It's Kamari Lassiter, who 560 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:49,720 Speaker 3: he is going to be going up against this game, 561 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,400 Speaker 3: and the Chargers both rookies drafted this year, a lot 562 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,080 Speaker 3: of familiarity in that matchup. I think mcconki is still 563 00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,200 Speaker 3: going to find ways to get open, but it's an 564 00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,640 Speaker 3: interesting kind of little tweak an advantage that the Texans 565 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,119 Speaker 3: might have their favor. I think the Texans D line 566 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:06,679 Speaker 3: has a chance against the Chargers O line that's a 567 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,959 Speaker 3: bit beat up to have a lot of disruption, and 568 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,359 Speaker 3: I think that these two corners in the same way 569 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,480 Speaker 3: that we saw them really disrupt the game against Miami, 570 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 3: which was another team that came in with what was 571 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 3: said to be a good run game, what was said 572 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,640 Speaker 3: to be a good quick passing game, play action similar 573 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 3: things to what the Chargers have. All of that was 574 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 3: out there and the Texans defense won them that game 575 00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,199 Speaker 3: at home. I think this can set up in a 576 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 3: very similar way to where that Texans defense can have advantage. 577 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 3: So I think there's certainly a path there for Houston. 578 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,600 Speaker 3: As you mentioned the offense, it's been brutal, but are 579 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,200 Speaker 3: we giving them a bit of a break for the 580 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,200 Speaker 3: teams that they faced down the stretch. I think that's 581 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 3: where we get to a big discrepancy in the number. 582 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 3: Here you're playing the Chiefs you're playing the Ravens. I mean, 583 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 3: it was tough for Houston down the stretch, and they 584 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:58,160 Speaker 3: had a very late buy, They had injuries, and it's 585 00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:00,520 Speaker 3: kind of them coming in off of a mini last 586 00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 3: week where the Chargers are on their third straight road 587 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,400 Speaker 3: game and the Chargers had the earliest buy of any 588 00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 3: team in the NFL. I've been going pretty steady for 589 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 3: the last few weeks here, So I again, like I 590 00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,720 Speaker 3: go back to this number, these two teams and power 591 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 3: ratings that were used for betting. We're talking better betting 592 00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 3: power ratings, not major network published ones that are just 593 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:26,320 Speaker 3: like standings effectively, but like numbers that pros reference and 594 00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:30,280 Speaker 3: use for betting. These two teams were within one point 595 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,800 Speaker 3: of each other all season long. There was never bigger 596 00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,520 Speaker 3: than a one point discrepancy, and it wasn't until week 597 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,680 Speaker 3: eighteen where the Chargers were actually ranked higher than the 598 00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 3: Houston Texans. It took time to level out. This number 599 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,920 Speaker 3: on a neutral field has to be five and a 600 00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:49,160 Speaker 3: half or six based on this point spread that we're 601 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,560 Speaker 3: seeing at three in Houston. Like, we're just in a 602 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 3: completely different world for this price than what we've been 603 00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:59,280 Speaker 3: at for four months. And that to me off the 604 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:02,840 Speaker 3: Chargers b the Raiders with Aidan O'Connell and the Pats 605 00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:06,520 Speaker 3: with Drake May and the Denver Broncos down the stretch. 606 00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 3: Like that's a lot and a reach to get to. Yeah. 607 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,000 Speaker 2: Do you think the books said it this high? Because Hey, 608 00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:16,800 Speaker 2: nobody's touching the Texans. They've been so bad the regression 609 00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:21,160 Speaker 2: and everybody loves Harball, everybody likes Herbert. Do you think 610 00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:22,280 Speaker 2: that has something to do with it? 611 00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 3: Yeah? And I mean they're probably drawing a ridiculous amount 612 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:27,720 Speaker 3: of Chargers money. I would imagine if I had to 613 00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:32,000 Speaker 3: just guess who the most picked or bet side overall 614 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,480 Speaker 3: in terms of count would be this entire weekend. I 615 00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,960 Speaker 3: would expect it to be the Chargers if we're making 616 00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:41,640 Speaker 3: the cutoff a Saturday afternoon and you don't have like 617 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:45,640 Speaker 3: moneyline rollover instances being disrupted and you're getting like a 618 00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,840 Speaker 3: crazy run of volume Sunday or Monday night. But I 619 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:52,280 Speaker 3: would think that the Chargers are probably the most popular side, 620 00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:55,280 Speaker 3: and this number has been kind of holding there for 621 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,400 Speaker 3: a reason. So I think they got it right. Like 622 00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,680 Speaker 3: you said, Harbaugh wins everywhere he goes. Better coach, you 623 00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,280 Speaker 3: have a better quarterback in this game on the Chargers, 624 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,640 Speaker 3: and that's typically enough to warrant. Probably the one sided 625 00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:08,120 Speaker 3: action books are getting on the chargers. 626 00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:12,080 Speaker 2: So in the circa contest, you know, I don't know 627 00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:13,440 Speaker 2: if you know about the website where you can go 628 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 2: look at how your picks have done, Home Dogs, road favorites, 629 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,600 Speaker 2: blah blah blah. For whatever reason, I was like seventy 630 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,560 Speaker 2: nine percent on road favorites this year. I don't know 631 00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,520 Speaker 2: why I didn't do great. I finished over five hundred, 632 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,720 Speaker 2: but it was only like fifty two point four or whatever. 633 00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,680 Speaker 2: I wasn't sniffing the cash, but for whatever reason, I 634 00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:34,360 Speaker 2: kept hitting road favorites and they kept covering it at 635 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:37,640 Speaker 2: insane rate. The Chargers are the biggest roads. There's only 636 00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,120 Speaker 2: two of Vikings and Chargers. 637 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:40,640 Speaker 1: It. 638 00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:43,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, so you're going chargers in this game? Is that 639 00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:44,480 Speaker 3: what you're saying? 640 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:48,280 Speaker 2: I don't. I mean, I like them. I just don't 641 00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:51,520 Speaker 2: know if my place is probably gonna come down off 642 00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:52,840 Speaker 2: the three by game time, right. 643 00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:58,960 Speaker 3: I would be surprised if it didn't. I cannot imagine 644 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,160 Speaker 3: a group that has enough influence to impact a playoff 645 00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:07,040 Speaker 3: point spread on Friday or Saturday leading up to kickoff 646 00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,520 Speaker 3: justifying Chargers minus three and moving this further, I cannot 647 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 3: get there. If this is going to move higher, it's 648 00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:17,239 Speaker 3: just because things got so one sided the books are 649 00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,040 Speaker 3: willing to go to three and a half. I would 650 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,080 Speaker 3: be very shocked if that happens. I think, if anything, 651 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:22,480 Speaker 3: it gets to two and a half a close. 652 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 2: How about this Washington Tampa game, a rematch from week one, 653 00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:29,920 Speaker 2: which you pretty much have to throw out because it 654 00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,880 Speaker 2: was Jaden Daniel's first game of the season. But Tampa 655 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:34,360 Speaker 2: is one of these dangerous teams. 656 00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:34,600 Speaker 3: Man. 657 00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,480 Speaker 2: I kind I want to bet Washington because I want 658 00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:41,680 Speaker 2: to root for them here. But my guess is this 659 00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:42,960 Speaker 2: is probably going to go up to three and a 660 00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:44,240 Speaker 2: half as opposed to stay on three. 661 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 3: Right it did earlier in the week, and I know 662 00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,120 Speaker 3: the better who took the three and a half and 663 00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:53,960 Speaker 3: took that out. So as it stands now, I think 664 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,400 Speaker 3: we're probably going to sit around three the rest of 665 00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:58,840 Speaker 3: the week. If this does come off three and get 666 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 3: back to two and a half, it's absolutely getting bet 667 00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:04,040 Speaker 3: on Tampa. And I still think Tampa at three is 668 00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,480 Speaker 3: decide to play in this game myself, So. 669 00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:08,959 Speaker 2: Wait, so hold on, so your buddy or somebody you know, 670 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:11,720 Speaker 2: it was at three and then he bet it and 671 00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:13,120 Speaker 2: it moved to three and a half and then came 672 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:13,960 Speaker 2: back down. 673 00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 3: So it opened two and a half. It immediately got 674 00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,160 Speaker 3: bet to three, and then about twenty minutes later it 675 00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 3: went to three and a half. And then Monday morning, 676 00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:24,360 Speaker 3: another pro that I know bet three and a half 677 00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:25,760 Speaker 3: and that's why there were no more three and a 678 00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:27,920 Speaker 3: halfs on the board. It came back to three. So 679 00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:32,040 Speaker 3: we have like disagreement here between two different groups one 680 00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,479 Speaker 3: love two and a half, one love three, and there 681 00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,640 Speaker 3: was some follow up action on the three that pushed 682 00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:38,440 Speaker 3: it to three and a half, and now we're sitting 683 00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,000 Speaker 3: in between the two, so we're kind of like bracketed 684 00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,560 Speaker 3: as would be expected in a playoff game on either 685 00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:46,040 Speaker 3: side of three. I would just say, like if this 686 00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:48,160 Speaker 3: were to come back off of the three between now 687 00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:51,360 Speaker 3: and Sunday night, I would be shocked if there's not 688 00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:53,400 Speaker 3: buy back on the two and a half to take 689 00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,240 Speaker 3: this back to three. Like I think three for Tampa 690 00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:58,000 Speaker 3: is the floor of what this closes. 691 00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,960 Speaker 2: Interesting, So his story worrickally, do you look at that 692 00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:03,760 Speaker 2: and does that factor in when you have you know, 693 00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:07,280 Speaker 2: Joe over here on three and then you know, Mike 694 00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:09,719 Speaker 2: over here with three and a half, do you take 695 00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:12,839 Speaker 2: that into your account at all when you're considering laying 696 00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:13,280 Speaker 2: a wager. 697 00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:15,839 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, you have to because you know who's doing it, 698 00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,920 Speaker 3: and you know how they're faring for the season, and 699 00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,280 Speaker 3: you see their action coming through, and then you also 700 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,040 Speaker 3: know what they tend to value and what they're looking at. 701 00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:27,200 Speaker 3: And so when that happened, I'm looking at this game 702 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:28,759 Speaker 3: during the week and I'm like, Okay, I can see 703 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:30,399 Speaker 3: why the two and a halfs and the threes were 704 00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:32,200 Speaker 3: taken out, and I can see why the three and 705 00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:33,680 Speaker 3: a half's were taken out, and I can kind of 706 00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:36,640 Speaker 3: put logic behind it, and then I kind of make 707 00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:38,960 Speaker 3: a decision off of that to figure out like where 708 00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:42,120 Speaker 3: I fit into, and I happen to fit into the 709 00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:45,600 Speaker 3: side here that is Tampa Bay at three. 710 00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:50,040 Speaker 2: Lastly, we'll skip the Rams vikings because that game maybe 711 00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:51,600 Speaker 2: moved and there's just a lot of stuff on that. 712 00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:56,720 Speaker 2: But is the only reason this isn't higher Eagles minus 713 00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:59,160 Speaker 2: four and a half because last year the Packers went 714 00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 2: into Dallas and what destroyed the Cowboys and then nearly 715 00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,560 Speaker 2: had the Niners basically beaten and lost the game in 716 00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,399 Speaker 2: the fourth quarter, and people just respect the hell out 717 00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:10,640 Speaker 2: of Jordan Love and Lafleur. Is that the only reason, 718 00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:12,400 Speaker 2: because this feels like it should be a little higher. 719 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:14,560 Speaker 3: No, the only reason it's not higher is because this 720 00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,440 Speaker 3: number is right. I was expecting it to open four, 721 00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,600 Speaker 3: which it did, and I think the only reason that 722 00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:23,839 Speaker 3: we've gone higher is because there is some uncertainty about 723 00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,319 Speaker 3: Jordan Love, and earlier in the week it looked like 724 00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:28,440 Speaker 3: the uncertainty was going to be with Jalen Hurts, and 725 00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:31,000 Speaker 3: so that's kind of flipped and I think that's why 726 00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,160 Speaker 3: this has gone up from four to four and a 727 00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:36,359 Speaker 3: half and could possibly get to five. That could cause 728 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,960 Speaker 3: a bit of difference in opinion in the market late week, 729 00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:42,120 Speaker 3: but that's I think four is the right number in 730 00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,600 Speaker 3: this game. Five is not enough for me to take 731 00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:48,320 Speaker 3: the dog. But this is right on what the ratings 732 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:50,440 Speaker 3: would have made it in season, plus a bit of 733 00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:51,200 Speaker 3: a playoff bump. 734 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,640 Speaker 2: Are you of the belief that there's some numbers floating 735 00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:59,319 Speaker 2: around about how Christian Watson dramatically impacts this offense. I 736 00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,600 Speaker 2: know the numbers aren't there for him, but the splits 737 00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:04,000 Speaker 2: with him on and off the field are. I guess 738 00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,480 Speaker 2: he's a you know, a tote big time game breaker, 739 00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,960 Speaker 2: can stretch the field, and without him, they've got good receivers. 740 00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:12,920 Speaker 2: But I don't know, it feels like this is an 741 00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,000 Speaker 2: Eagles team kind of on a mission here. I do 742 00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:19,040 Speaker 2: think they are very deficient in head coaching here Visiriani 743 00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,600 Speaker 2: versus Floor, but I'm leaning Eagles. 744 00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,919 Speaker 3: Yeah, it depends what Vic Fangio chooses to do. So 745 00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:28,400 Speaker 3: Brian Floor is in Week seventeen with a Vikings defense 746 00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,640 Speaker 3: that plays a ton of zone coverage around seventy eight 747 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:33,520 Speaker 3: percent of the time. He switched and he played zone 748 00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,520 Speaker 3: at the season low rate and really jacked up the 749 00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,800 Speaker 3: amount of man coverage that he was willing to play 750 00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:41,959 Speaker 3: against this Packers wide receiver group. And after the game, 751 00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:44,840 Speaker 3: Matt Lafleur was talking about how it caught him off guard. 752 00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:47,800 Speaker 3: He was very surprised with the changeup and they didn't 753 00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:49,640 Speaker 3: see it coming and they didn't have an answer for it. 754 00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,560 Speaker 3: I mean, the backers looked so bad against the Vikings 755 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:56,000 Speaker 3: in that game. So Vic Fangio, as we know, plays 756 00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:57,799 Speaker 3: a lot of his own coverage a little bit more 757 00:36:57,840 --> 00:36:59,960 Speaker 3: man heavy this year because he's got some great corners. 758 00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:02,560 Speaker 3: I think the question becomes in this game, do we 759 00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:06,520 Speaker 3: see Fangio Steele a little page out of Flores's playbook 760 00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:08,759 Speaker 3: and go a little bit more man heavy because he 761 00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:12,120 Speaker 3: knows that without Watson on the field, the risk of 762 00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,400 Speaker 3: these corners, who have been awesome all season getting beat 763 00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:19,279 Speaker 3: down field is reduced quite a bit. And I tend 764 00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:21,400 Speaker 3: to think that the answer is yes, and he's willing 765 00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,880 Speaker 3: to take that gamble. And the question is going to 766 00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:27,160 Speaker 3: be do we see the Saints. The Eagles played the 767 00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,880 Speaker 3: Saints earlier in the year, and they showed a very 768 00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:33,839 Speaker 3: unique front to stop the run with extra bodies. That 769 00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:37,359 Speaker 3: man coverage outside will let them dictate an extra guy 770 00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:41,160 Speaker 3: upfront against the run, which could make this pretty difficult 771 00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:43,239 Speaker 3: for Green Bay. And I don't know what the CounterPunch 772 00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:46,399 Speaker 3: is going to be from Lafloor, but to me, that 773 00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:49,960 Speaker 3: Watson impact is really going to show through if we 774 00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,640 Speaker 3: see the Eagles go a little bit more man than 775 00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:56,360 Speaker 3: they might be expected. We've seen Jordan Love really struggle 776 00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:57,640 Speaker 3: against those looks this season. 777 00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:00,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, we could wrap up Adam super Bowl. 778 00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:03,080 Speaker 2: Do you have a prediction? Doesn't have to necessarily be gambling, 779 00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,560 Speaker 2: but do you any guess as to And again, this 780 00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:09,400 Speaker 2: could get crazy because you know if the seven seed, 781 00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:13,200 Speaker 2: let's say the Packers win, then they go to Detroit 782 00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:15,600 Speaker 2: and it's like, oh, well, that's a problem for the Lions. 783 00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:17,680 Speaker 2: The Packers played them super tough just a few weeks ago. 784 00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:20,000 Speaker 2: But do you have any lean as to who will 785 00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:20,759 Speaker 2: be in the Super Bowl? 786 00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:24,040 Speaker 3: Well, back in May, I believe it was when you 787 00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:26,560 Speaker 3: referenced the Panther's take that was given on the Herd 788 00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:28,560 Speaker 3: with you and when we were on there and you 789 00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:32,080 Speaker 3: had me on My super Bowl prediction at that time 790 00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:36,360 Speaker 3: was Chiefs win the AFC Eagles win the NFC to 791 00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,400 Speaker 3: set up in the Super Bowl. So I'll reference that 792 00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,880 Speaker 3: segment again and say I'm still holding on to that prediction. 793 00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:45,239 Speaker 3: The only thing that I have added between that time 794 00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:47,600 Speaker 3: and now for any futures relating to the Super Bowl 795 00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:51,280 Speaker 3: was after the loss to the Rams, I added Bills 796 00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:54,000 Speaker 3: six to one to win the Super Bowl, which is 797 00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:56,080 Speaker 3: still the price that is available today. They didn't get 798 00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:58,000 Speaker 3: the one seed as I thought that they might at 799 00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:01,680 Speaker 3: that time. That's covering a lot of bases here, So 800 00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:03,480 Speaker 3: for the sake of the show, I'm just going to 801 00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:07,160 Speaker 3: stick with that Eagles Chiefs preseason prediction that dates back 802 00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:08,200 Speaker 3: to May for that one. 803 00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,280 Speaker 2: I would be so annoyed if the Chiefs won another 804 00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:12,440 Speaker 2: Super Bowl? Aren't you getting board of them? They're not 805 00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:15,200 Speaker 2: fun at them. They're not a fun watch. 806 00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:15,799 Speaker 1: You know that. 807 00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:18,160 Speaker 3: Can't you just let greatness be and enjoy it? 808 00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:18,239 Speaker 1: Like? 809 00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:19,759 Speaker 3: Why do we always have to try to tear down 810 00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,399 Speaker 3: the great see me like that seems like a quote 811 00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:24,520 Speaker 3: that would be on one of your Instagram stories after 812 00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:28,120 Speaker 3: a successful pickup game. Just let greatness be great? And 813 00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:29,520 Speaker 3: now you're trying to tear it down here on. 814 00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:32,279 Speaker 2: They've had two years. We need some fresh brock Perty 815 00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:34,399 Speaker 2: had them last year. They had them in the Super Bowl. 816 00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:38,640 Speaker 3: That defense needed one stop, they had four opportunities. Couldn't 817 00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:40,640 Speaker 3: get off the field once that was there for the Niners, 818 00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:43,160 Speaker 3: no question. I go back to that punt. That punt 819 00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:47,080 Speaker 3: that oh unbelievable. That just flipped the game. 820 00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:48,480 Speaker 2: Chiefs for getting. 821 00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:52,200 Speaker 3: Dominated it all right, I'll let that take stand, but 822 00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:54,680 Speaker 3: the first just let the let the greatness be great. 823 00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:55,279 Speaker 3: I like that. 824 00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:57,239 Speaker 2: That's a good quote. We'll put that on. 825 00:39:57,719 --> 00:39:59,080 Speaker 3: I'll keep an eye on your Instagram for 826 00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:02,840 Speaker 2: Sorry, Adam, turn off right angle sports good stuff buddy, 827 00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:04,359 Speaker 2: Thanks very much, chat to you soon.