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Speaker 2: What is it?
Speaker 3: Well, when tomorrow comes, That's when we hear from fed
Speaker 3: share J. Powell two pm. We get the decision. Thirty
Speaker 3: minutes later, we're going to hear from the man himself.
Speaker 3: It's the sixth meeting of the Federal Reserves Policy Setting
Speaker 3: Commeting Policy Setting Committee. We're going to have all the
Speaker 3: US Central Bank's latest view on economic projections on the
Speaker 3: US economy. Is it going to be a snoozer? Or
Speaker 3: might there be some possible fireworks with his view? Back
Speaker 3: with us, we got doctor Stephen Skanky, chief economic advisor
Speaker 3: at keep Point, also a former US Treasury and White
Speaker 3: House National Security Council staff member, joining us on Zoom
Speaker 3: from Washington, DC. Also with us, Anna Wong, chief US
Speaker 3: economist for Bloomberg Economics, on Zoom from our Washington DC bureau.
Speaker 3: Doctor Skanky, good to have you with us. It's a
Speaker 3: good day to talk to both of you, especially ahead
Speaker 3: of hearing from FED Chair J Powell tomorrow, the committee
Speaker 3: meeting today. Of course, what's top of mind for them,
Speaker 3: do you think, doctor Skanky.
Speaker 4: Well, they're still trying to figure out whether inflation is
Speaker 4: had just taken a break and is not going to rebound. Certainly,
Speaker 4: they're concerned about the high oil and energy price numbers
Speaker 4: and what that's doing in gasoline on the headline, and
Speaker 4: how that translates through to core inflation. So that's that's
Speaker 4: certainly a concern. The other concern is that the economy
Speaker 4: still seemed to be growing pretty robustly for all the
Speaker 4: reason that we think consumer spending should be slowing. The
Speaker 4: latest numbers last week didn't show that at all, and
Speaker 4: that's got to be a concern for them.
Speaker 3: I want to bring in Anna Wong, but first, speaking
Speaker 3: of headlines, the Treasury tenure yield rising to four point
Speaker 3: three six five percent, the highest going all the way
Speaker 3: back to two thousand and seven. Anna Wong is chief
Speaker 3: US economists for Bloomberg Economics, and you've got a great
Speaker 3: piece out about why a soft landing call always precedes recessions.
Speaker 3: Take us into the history there, and also why you
Speaker 3: know you think it's a little too early for people
Speaker 3: to declare soft landing this time around.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so, you know, we have seen four recessions in
Speaker 5: the past, say since nineteen ninety, and preceding each of
Speaker 5: those four recessions there had been a chorus of soft
Speaker 5: lending optimism. So you could actually look up the word
Speaker 5: soft lending across news headline and it's very clear that
Speaker 5: that's the trend. And so in that piece we ask
Speaker 5: what is the reason for why soft landing hopes always
Speaker 5: peak right before recession? I think I think there are
Speaker 5: a couple of reasons. Number one is that economists forecasting
Speaker 5: tools tend to depend on linear relationships. Unfortunately, unemployment does
Speaker 5: not follow a linear distribution data generation process. In fact,
Speaker 5: during recessions, unemployment tends to jump on a non linear
Speaker 5: in a non linear way. So as a result, when
Speaker 5: people think linearly, the mean forecast would suggest that unemployment
Speaker 5: rate would only you know, slightly rise to three point
Speaker 5: nine percent by the end of this year. And that
Speaker 5: might be the number that the Fed officials, the median
Speaker 5: participant to write it, would write in in the updated
Speaker 5: SEP tomorrow, three point nine percent unemployment by the end
Speaker 5: of this year. That is entirely consistent with a linear
Speaker 5: way of thinking about the world. But if you think
Speaker 5: about the risk, and we calculated the risk around that
Speaker 5: mean forecast using historical data, in fact, it shows you
Speaker 5: that the upside risk for unemployment is actually much much
Speaker 5: bigger than the downside risk to unemployment. So this is
Speaker 5: why we think overall that there's still substantial risk of
Speaker 5: a recession before the.
Speaker 6: End of the year.
Speaker 3: Doctor Snaky way in on that, do you think do
Speaker 3: you agree with in along that there's substantial risk of
Speaker 3: a US recession by the end of the year.
Speaker 4: Well, I certainly agree with annas Research and Analytics on this,
Speaker 4: and yes, there is a risk of recession before the
Speaker 4: end of the year. I happen to think that it's
Speaker 4: more likely to bleed into twenty twenty four than necessarily
Speaker 4: show up here. But there are a lot I mean,
Speaker 4: we know that there's a lot of things that are
Speaker 4: going to be happening in October and November that could
Speaker 4: very quickly push consumers spending down. Other things on the
Speaker 4: trade front, business and certainly tim as you mentioned, the
Speaker 4: high the record high tenure treasury, how does that affect
Speaker 4: the psychology of business investing and so several things could
Speaker 4: all of a sudden start to spook decision makers and
Speaker 4: we end up with not only a weakening but even
Speaker 4: possibly a negative GDP growth by the end of the
Speaker 4: fourth quarter. The other thing is is money supply has
Speaker 4: been in a negative growth period for now over a year,
Speaker 4: and historically that correlates very highly with recession. That would
Speaker 4: if you sort of try to time it out, I'll
Speaker 4: look more into early twenty twenty four than at the
Speaker 4: end of twenty twenty three. But even that historically has
Speaker 4: not been a tightly timed at eighteen months. So that's
Speaker 4: another factor out there that we don't talk about very much,
Speaker 4: but still a very real factor in how this thing
Speaker 4: could turn quickly.
Speaker 3: So doctor Wong, tell us how you think the FED
Speaker 3: is going to handle I don't know, talking about the
Speaker 3: uncertainties that have come up over the last few months here,
Speaker 3: the fact that the tenure has risen so much, the
Speaker 3: concerns that you raised about unemployment. Talk to me about
Speaker 3: how you think the FED deals with this with regard
Speaker 3: to how it's thinking about its interest rate path and
Speaker 3: potentially cutting in twenty four.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so you know, Chairman Powell has already told us
Speaker 5: very clearly how he deals with uncertainty. At the Jackson
Speaker 5: Whole speech, he said that when there's uncertainty and when
Speaker 5: there are still some lack of monetary policy operating in
Speaker 5: the background, he would move slowly. And uncertainty is what
Speaker 5: we are going to have in the next couple of months.
Speaker 5: As Steve said, we have you know ua w strike
Speaker 5: ongoing right now, We still have that Hollywood strike. We
Speaker 5: have a potential government shut down looming that if it
Speaker 5: lasts for a month, we expect that it will raise
Speaker 5: unemployment rate by point two percentage point and at which
Speaker 5: point the psalm's rule for kickstarting a recession would be triggered.
Speaker 5: So I think that Powell would definitely perceive all these
Speaker 5: risks as telling him that they should wait for more information.
Speaker 5: So I think it's unlikely that the Fed will race
Speaker 5: rate in November. However, it might be that he would
Speaker 5: be holding out the door open for December hips or
Speaker 5: even January.
Speaker 3: January hike, a January hike. So much of our conversation
Speaker 3: over the last few weeks it's focused on November. Doctor
Speaker 3: Skankey is, what's your impression here do you think we'll
Speaker 3: see a Well?
Speaker 4: I agree with what Anna said. I don't think that
Speaker 4: the Fed is going to raise rates when they announced tomorrow,
Speaker 4: but I do think that Cherah Powell will qualify the
Speaker 4: decision not to raise rates indus remarks by saying something
Speaker 4: like rate hikes can resume if needed. I think the
Speaker 4: hold will will also have some other hawkish elements or
Speaker 4: hawkish connotations. In the dot plot, they might even show
Speaker 4: the possibility of another rate hike, if not in November
Speaker 4: in December, could happen early in January. So the dot
Speaker 4: plot and the updated Summary of Economic Projections will be
Speaker 4: important and very interesting, for example, to see if they
Speaker 4: ratify the notion that the GDP is still growing steadily,
Speaker 4: albeit maybe a little bit weaker than the two percent
Speaker 4: path that we're on right now. And how do they
Speaker 4: factor in higher oil prices when they look at PCE inflation.
Speaker 4: And what do they say about unemployment. Yes, again as
Speaker 4: Ada said, unemployment does not increase linearly, and they've they've
Speaker 4: been more hawkey shot that. So it'll be very interesting
Speaker 4: what we see in the doc lot and the SEP
Speaker 4: will probably be way more interesting than what they say
Speaker 4: about not raising rates.
Speaker 3: Oh interesting, I mean, I'm looking forward to the sep
Speaker 3: but also of course the press conference as well. Doctor Wong,
Speaker 3: tell us if you have one, if you could ask
Speaker 3: J Powell one question tomorrow, what would it be?
Speaker 5: I would ask him whether he thinks that the strikes
Speaker 5: is suggesting that maybe inflation expectations are not as anchored
Speaker 5: as it seemed. I mean, we've already seen central bank
Speaker 5: officials in other countries, such as Reserve Bank of Australia,
Speaker 5: suggesting that inflation the expectations may not be anchored, given
Speaker 5: that union workers are able to demand higher wages, and
Speaker 5: we're seeing exactly that happening in the US.
Speaker 3: How do oil prices and gas prices factor into inflation expectations?
Speaker 5: Anna, Well, that's it's like a chicken and egg problem
Speaker 5: from the FEDS perspective. If they believe that inflation expectations
Speaker 5: are anchored, they will look through the increase in oil prices.
Speaker 5: But if they don't believe that it's very anchored, they
Speaker 5: won't look through it. So I think the inflation expectations
Speaker 5: question is really the core of what they will do.
Speaker 3: Doctor Skanky ten seconds. One question that you would ask
Speaker 3: J Powell tomorrow?
Speaker 4: What's the corrector point for deciding that the rights need
Speaker 4: to be increased again either in November or December.
Speaker 3: All right, there, It is really appreciate both of you
Speaker 3: joining us this afternoon, the eve before we hear from
Speaker 3: FED Chair J Powell tomorrow. That's doctor Stephen Skanky, chief
Speaker 3: economic advisor at keep Point, former US Treasury and White
Speaker 3: House National Sercity Security Accounts staff member. Also doctor Anna Wong,
Speaker 3: chief you has economist for Bloomberg Economics.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 6: His next voice is going to sound familiar because we
Speaker 6: caught up with him at the Milkin Institute Global Conference
Speaker 6: earlier this year. So great to have back with us
Speaker 6: in studio. Hans Kobler. He's found her managing partner of
Speaker 6: Energy Impact Partners. They have about three billion in assets
Speaker 6: under management. They invest in clean energy technologies and they
Speaker 6: help deploy them through partnerships with companies trying to decarbonize.
Speaker 6: He is in town for Climate Week, and as I said,
Speaker 6: he's here in our Bloomberg Interactive broker student. Nice to
Speaker 6: have you here with him and myself being here. Welcome back.
Speaker 6: Come on close to the mike because you want to
Speaker 6: make sure we can hear you. The energy transition. Let's
Speaker 6: start basic. How's it going.
Speaker 7: It's going well, it's picking up momentum. We had the
Speaker 7: first year in history that more money will spend on
Speaker 7: energy transitioning on traditional energy one point one trillion. So
Speaker 7: the momentum is building a tipping point. It's a tipping point,
Speaker 7: it's but it's the beginning. It's the first inning of
Speaker 7: a long, long race. You know, if you believe McKinsey
Speaker 7: and some forecasts, we will need eight nine trillion dollars
Speaker 7: a year one hundred and fifty trillion. That's fifteen internets
Speaker 7: or one and a half times the global economy spend
Speaker 7: therever the next few decades. That's a lot, and we
Speaker 7: may or we may not get there, but we are
Speaker 7: taking it serious.
Speaker 8: So it's picking up momentum.
Speaker 3: One thing that I think about when it comes to
Speaker 3: the energy transition is the role of nuclear power. And
Speaker 3: here in the US, it's a really checkered history, it's
Speaker 3: a really checkered past. It's very expensive for us to
Speaker 3: build nuclear power plants. They're always cost overruns, and then
Speaker 3: you have the legacy of Fukushima three Mile Island in Chernobyl.
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on nuclear?
Speaker 7: I think so we have a lot of corporate partners
Speaker 7: in our investor group. The Southern Company was the last
Speaker 7: one here to try to build a nuclear panther. They
Speaker 7: finally got them all online, which is right. We have
Speaker 7: ed f as an investor that had fifty five in
Speaker 7: the country running and half of them didn't work when
Speaker 7: they when they shut down. The Russian gas and Tepco
Speaker 7: was an investor too, so nuclear. You know, the clean
Speaker 7: energy transition is amazing, and a lot will be wind
Speaker 7: and solar, but you need the baseload and nuclear is
Speaker 7: still the best way to get to the baseload. So
Speaker 7: I think it's critical to keep that in the Arsenal
Speaker 7: and from Germany originally, I mean you can tell tell
Speaker 7: the accent. You know, the probably the greenest country that
Speaker 7: has most ambitions to go clean. They spend the tonne
Speaker 7: and they shut down, which is a stupid thing to do.
Speaker 3: It's I mean, is this reversible.
Speaker 8: Yeah, but it's hard. It's hard.
Speaker 7: Once you shut down an industry, you have to build
Speaker 7: up the talent to build new to build new nuclear plants.
Speaker 3: You can, but I guess can we transition to net
Speaker 3: zero without nuclear?
Speaker 9: Crucial?
Speaker 8: Is it hard?
Speaker 7: The transition to net zero is not only converting what
Speaker 7: we have today, but to deal with the demand that
Speaker 7: we are facing. We have had a flat demand curve
Speaker 7: in this country for twenty years. We are now electrifying transportation.
Speaker 7: We're building data centers running on AI where one Google search,
Speaker 7: where one AI search is taking about fifty to two
Speaker 7: hundred times more power than a Google search. So you're
Speaker 7: talking about doubling the infrastructure that you've built over one
Speaker 7: hundred years. You know, Musk is out there saying no, no, no,
Speaker 7: whatever you are calculated, it's going to be tripled. So
Speaker 7: you need a lot of electrons and so there is
Speaker 7: not one solution for that. That means we have to
Speaker 7: use different tools in the toolkit to get there and
Speaker 7: get there a lot faster than we have been.
Speaker 6: But can we do it this energy transformation without nuclear?
Speaker 7: Yes, but I think it would be a lot cheaper
Speaker 7: if it did it with nuclear. And at the end
Speaker 7: of the day, we have to address something that we
Speaker 7: call in the industry trilemma. Everyone wants to go clean,
Speaker 7: but when you face not having power at all, security
Speaker 7: reliability gets on the horizon. And when the Germans pay
Speaker 7: twelve times more for natural gas than the Americans and
Speaker 7: four times more for electricity, then affordability comes in right.
Speaker 7: So that's an equation. This trilemma is an equation very difficult.
Speaker 3: But also motivation perhaps to invest in renewable sources that
Speaker 3: in the long run are less expensive.
Speaker 7: Absolutely, but in a way in our view, the only
Speaker 7: way to solve that equation of this trilemma is to
Speaker 7: really to apply innovation. That means you need new technologies,
Speaker 7: great technologies, and you need to collaborate.
Speaker 8: You need to.
Speaker 7: Involve the incumbents. The existing infrastructure sits on, sit on
Speaker 7: trillions of dollars of investments that we have to help
Speaker 7: them get there faster. That's by the way, it's a
Speaker 7: business model that we have where we team up with
Speaker 7: corporates and bring them together in a room with the
Speaker 7: innovators and the capital to forge the alliance is to
Speaker 7: accelerate that transition. It's look, everybody wants to see the
Speaker 7: rosy sky, but you've got to be pragmatic about it,
Speaker 7: and that means. That means we got to work together
Speaker 7: and work faster and harder than we have in the past.
Speaker 6: So when you have those conversations and those collaborations, what
Speaker 6: is it that you speak most about? Tim brought up nuclear, right,
Speaker 6: and we feel like it has become such a no, no,
Speaker 6: it is it nuclear? Is it hydro? Is it solar?
Speaker 6: Is it? Like? What is it that people that you
Speaker 6: guys spend a lot of time talking about with your oartners?
Speaker 8: Yeah?
Speaker 7: Yes, yeah, yeah, yes. So it is a complex undertaking.
Speaker 7: We need to decarbonize supply, We need to create a
Speaker 7: lot more supplies. So that's one folks there. The second
Speaker 7: one is we need to create sustainable demand. That means
Speaker 7: electrifying a lot of the industries, from transportation to home heating,
Speaker 7: to the data centers, indoor agriculture. And then you have
Speaker 7: to deal with the high intermittency you create. So I
Speaker 7: was just telling you it's two to three times more
Speaker 7: power that we need, but at its peak it could
Speaker 7: be five times as much. You know, it's like building
Speaker 7: a church for Easter Sunday, and we've got to somehow
Speaker 7: we have to balance that, and that means you have
Speaker 7: to invest in transmission distribution, which is very difficult.
Speaker 8: Right.
Speaker 7: It took fifteen years to get the clean electrons from
Speaker 7: Canada through two of the greenest states to New York.
Speaker 7: Because nobody wants to build anything in their backyard. You
Speaker 7: build storage, and great technologies are coming up. You an
Speaker 7: investor in form, you investor in power and so. But
Speaker 7: that's a lot of space that is needed. Takes some time.
Speaker 7: Or you digitize the communication between the customer and the
Speaker 7: supply and you tell them, look, don't charge your car
Speaker 7: at six o'clock to it at midnight.
Speaker 8: It turned down. It's nice years. Just don't cool right
Speaker 8: now because everybody's cooling.
Speaker 6: Can I ask you, with only about thirty seconds left here,
Speaker 6: would you invest in a fossil fuel energy company? No,
Speaker 6: oil and gas company? No, you wouldn't anymore. No, even
Speaker 6: though it's going to.
Speaker 8: Be doing for some people.
Speaker 7: You know, look, we need certainly natural gas form.
Speaker 6: I know you're kind of talking your book because that's.
Speaker 7: The way we need natural gas a long long time, okay,
Speaker 7: But we personally would not invest. We are fun focused
Speaker 7: on you know, we are Article nine fund. We invest
Speaker 7: in things that decarbonize the globally.
Speaker 6: But if you weren't would you.
Speaker 8: If I was a financial bssit would okay?
Speaker 6: All right? Love having you come here, always provocative. I
Speaker 6: always learned something. Come back soon, yeah, Hans Kobbler, he's founding.
Speaker 6: Do you took a founder managing partner Energy Impact Partners?
Speaker 10: Here in our studio, you're listening to the Bloomberg Business
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Speaker 1: Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter
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Speaker 6: Thirty Climate Week in New York against the backdrop of
Speaker 6: the seventy eighth session of the You in General Assembly.
Speaker 6: You know that we've been talking about it.
Speaker 2: They have.
Speaker 6: The UN has identified seventeen specific SDG sustainable Development goals,
Speaker 6: including building out resilient technology infrastructure. And to get there
Speaker 6: and reach some of those seventeen SDGs, the UN has
Speaker 6: highlighted high impact initiatives, among them unlocking the data dividend,
Speaker 6: which our next guest participated in an event that happened
Speaker 6: here this week with us is Johannes uting Am. I
Speaker 6: saying it right, perfect Okay, he's being kind, but he's
Speaker 6: executive head of the Partnership in Statistics for Development in
Speaker 6: the twenty first Century. The acronym is Paris twenty one,
Speaker 6: which is hosted by the OCD in Paris. I have
Speaker 6: to say that Johanna's former member of the UN Secretary
Speaker 6: General's Expert Group on the Data Revolution. He's a development economist,
Speaker 6: expertise and employment, social protection, healthcare, financing and gender. He's
Speaker 6: looked at the world in a lot of different ways
Speaker 6: and we were delighted to have him here in our
Speaker 6: Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio.
Speaker 2: Welcome, Welcome, Thank you very much for inviting me.
Speaker 6: Well, thank you. And I've learned about Paris twenty one
Speaker 6: because my daughter has done an internship with you all
Speaker 6: this summer. So full transparency, but I've learned a lot.
Speaker 6: Tell us though, in your words, your mission and your goals,
Speaker 6: what you guys are all about.
Speaker 10: Paris tonty one stands for Partnership in Statistics in Development
Speaker 10: for the twenty first Century. We basically do three things.
Speaker 10: We help countries with technical capacity development national statistical offices,
Speaker 10: so we help training of managers in statistical offices in
Speaker 10: poor countries like Wanda and others. So we organize trainings,
Speaker 10: We help with coordination in many parts of when you
Speaker 10: produce data, there are many ministries involved, there are development
Speaker 10: agencies involved, and we help them with to get coordinated.
Speaker 2: And last but not least, we do advocacy.
Speaker 10: And you just mentioned the UNGA week, the SDG summit,
Speaker 10: and we do advocacy for more and better funding for
Speaker 10: data and statistics.
Speaker 6: Well, what's interesting in a world that's overrun with data
Speaker 6: we just assume it's good. We don't say it's good.
Speaker 6: We talk about biased data and kind of dirty data,
Speaker 6: not great data. But not all data is good, not
Speaker 6: all data is productive or useful, right, And so you
Speaker 6: guys are involved in that helping countries develop infrastructure so
Speaker 6: that they can actually accumulate their own data sets.
Speaker 2: Correct, absolutely correct.
Speaker 10: I think what is a bit difficult sometimes to understand is,
Speaker 10: on the one hand, we have a data tsunami. We
Speaker 10: have all these data digital data, which is very good,
Speaker 10: which is feeding artificial intelligence and innovation. On the other hand,
Speaker 10: we have and on the other hand we have data gaps,
Speaker 10: terrible data gaps, and in some countries we don't even
Speaker 10: know of how many people in a country are living.
Speaker 10: We have difficulties to measure burst rates and to register
Speaker 10: those people.
Speaker 2: We have a lot of data gaps in the SDGs.
Speaker 10: We in particular on climate change or gender equality. We
Speaker 10: are literally flying blind. So we are supporting as Paras
Speaker 10: twenty one with our partners to close those data gaps,
Speaker 10: to be able to do better decisions, but also to
Speaker 10: hold our governments accountable. I think that's also a very
Speaker 10: important aspect of this. So that if you say you
Speaker 10: want to read use poverty in a given country by
Speaker 10: six percent, you want to have the start point and
Speaker 10: the endpoint, and you want to see if this is
Speaker 10: on track.
Speaker 3: We've talked a lot this year about AI and the
Speaker 3: impact that AI is having on companies whose stocks are
Speaker 3: publicly traded. What about when it comes to your work
Speaker 3: and how you can use AI to make sense of
Speaker 3: this data and help these poorer countries actually make positive change?
Speaker 3: Are you using it?
Speaker 2: An excellent question?
Speaker 10: I mean, what we see is that there are two
Speaker 10: I mean, we often talk about silos, right, I mean,
Speaker 10: and this is a real siite of On the one hand,
Speaker 10: we have people talking about the data that you were
Speaker 10: just mentioning feeding into the algorithms and that supporting these
Speaker 10: AI driven innovation. And on the other hand, we have
Speaker 10: data for development, which is an owned space by itself,
Speaker 10: and there is not enough crossover.
Speaker 2: If you look at the G.
Speaker 10: Twenty statement at the last one, there is a working
Speaker 10: group on Data for development and there's a working group
Speaker 10: on digital data. So there is yet not enough overlap.
Speaker 10: I think it's about to close. And artificial intelligent for
Speaker 10: the public good is of course very important, but also
Speaker 10: the quality of the data that you feed into it
Speaker 10: is essential.
Speaker 2: Garbage in, garbage out exactly.
Speaker 10: So the quality of the data to help countries produce
Speaker 10: verified quality statistics even is very essential and often unfortunately
Speaker 10: not in the spotlight.
Speaker 6: Well, you can't have transformative I'm stealing words from you guys,
Speaker 6: by transformative policy without transformative data.
Speaker 2: Correct, absolutely correct.
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, and I'm curious about you know, in a
Speaker 6: world where there's lots of stress points, I'm thinking, you know,
Speaker 6: the hottest world, you're right, hottest temperatures on record, So
Speaker 6: there's a lot going you know, a lot of focus
Speaker 6: on climate, but investment in infrastructure systems so that the
Speaker 6: data collection is better. How tough is that to get
Speaker 6: the money going where it needs to go.
Speaker 10: That's unfortunately it is a very very difficult exercise. So
Speaker 10: we currently spend around six seven hundred million on data
Speaker 10: and statistics from Official Development eight ODA eight and this
Speaker 10: is less than a percentage point since here. So we
Speaker 10: would need to ramp up significantly the international support for.
Speaker 2: Data and statistics.
Speaker 10: But we also need to convince countries to invest part
Speaker 10: of their taxpayers' money domestic resources into it and the payoff.
Speaker 10: I mean, the thing is if I invest into a hospital,
Speaker 10: if you're a minister, what would you do? Would you
Speaker 10: invest in a hospital, or in vaccination or education or
Speaker 10: would you invest in a national statistical office? We're probably
Speaker 10: the first, yeah, because then you can show after two
Speaker 10: three years is done. These benefits for investment in national
Speaker 10: statistical systems will only take time. The benefit will take
Speaker 10: time ten fifteen years later. They feed into everything else.
Speaker 3: Sell us on it. You know, if you're trying to
Speaker 3: sell a minister on making this investment, how do you
Speaker 3: do it?
Speaker 6: What's the cost by not making those investments.
Speaker 10: What we say is if you want to have I mean,
Speaker 10: for instance, economic growth, I mean it's very critical to
Speaker 10: have very good understanding about key economic indicators right, and
Speaker 10: if those are not sort of measured in your country,
Speaker 10: you will not be able to, first off all, to
Speaker 10: make very good decisions. You will not invest your public
Speaker 10: resources very efficiently. You are not even able to tell
Speaker 10: you if you do it or not. So in that sense,
Speaker 10: we are not asking for a lot of money. It's
Speaker 10: it's pe nuts. It's literally pe nuts, and there are
Speaker 10: a lot of we have a lot of good tools
Speaker 10: attend to help. So I think for a minister, and
Speaker 10: many planning ministers actually know this and they are behind this.
Speaker 10: It's sometimes just the politics behind, which is a bit difficult.
Speaker 6: No politics, But what's interesting I think about the amount
Speaker 6: of investment decisions that are made up of like all
Speaker 6: of the US economic statistics or global statistics right in
Speaker 6: the developed world. We've got about a minute and a
Speaker 6: half left, Johanna's you know a lot of times a
Speaker 6: little more. Sorry, okay, you know, it's been that kind
Speaker 6: of crazy day. So I think about, like our audience
Speaker 6: who's listening, a smart financial investment audience, what is it
Speaker 6: that they need to understand about again the importance of
Speaker 6: it and potentially the payoff. What's being missed by not
Speaker 6: accurately having data on a lot of different countries.
Speaker 10: I think we have to talk about the opportunities and
Speaker 10: the opportunities we will have next.
Speaker 2: Year in Meddelin or World Data Forum.
Speaker 10: So all your listeners, your community is quarterly invited because
Speaker 10: we are working more and more with the private sector,
Speaker 10: of course with the big companies that have a lot
Speaker 10: of data that makes those data. Also because we were
Speaker 10: asking about AI, I will later today attend by Google
Speaker 10: and I for public good. There are many other companies
Speaker 10: who are actively engaging. I think they could do a
Speaker 10: little bit more though, and also sees it as a
Speaker 10: public good. So I think for the many of our
Speaker 10: colleagues and partners from the private sector, I interested. So
Speaker 10: are civil society organizations, by the way, and to bring
Speaker 10: them together in multi.
Speaker 2: Partnership, that's the partnership part is very important.
Speaker 3: How can we make the data collection easier from the
Speaker 3: perspective of these countries, And I'm thinking about public private
Speaker 3: partnership specifically. I mean, think about the data that you
Speaker 3: know a mobile phone company has about what somebody does
Speaker 3: on their phone, transactions that they make. I mean, you
Speaker 3: can you can get really granular information that can tell
Speaker 3: stories about an economy, what's the role of a private
Speaker 3: company and in working with the government to provide that data,
Speaker 3: because there are some privacy concerns too.
Speaker 10: It's on point exactly how you say. On the one hand,
Speaker 10: I mean, we call this public private partnership, and there
Speaker 10: are some really very nice public private partnership out there
Speaker 10: where telephone companies share confidentially and secured the data. But
Speaker 10: of course it's a business risk as well. I mean,
Speaker 10: and you have to see what has happened to this
Speaker 10: data and so on and so forth. But there are
Speaker 10: some very good, promising examples of how what we call
Speaker 10: big data, specifically on geospatial data is used, for instance,
Speaker 10: on poverty mapping day and night satellite imagery, so you
Speaker 10: can look at a given country and you can compare
Speaker 10: the light nights, and you can compare it with a day,
Speaker 10: and then you can make a sort of calculation do
Speaker 10: these people.
Speaker 2: Have light electricity or not?
Speaker 10: And from this with other data, you can estimate hope
Speaker 10: poor people are and you also know for your investors
Speaker 10: where maybe you can put some infrastructure to solve this problem.
Speaker 6: And that's what I was thinking about. It was interesting.
Speaker 6: I was over at the earth Shot Prize Bloomberg Philanthropy's event,
Speaker 6: and we talked with some of the finalists of the
Speaker 6: earth Shot Prize and they've come up with different ways
Speaker 6: to decarbonize the world. And one of the things, let's
Speaker 6: talk about what you're doing, But then it's like, what's
Speaker 6: the impact. Talk to us about some of either the
Speaker 6: data sets that you have helped accumulate and what it
Speaker 6: has led to if you give us some examples.
Speaker 10: Of course, I mean we have been we do a
Speaker 10: lot of country work and in specific the one area
Speaker 10: which is very important, it's on gender.
Speaker 2: So in some parts of this.
Speaker 10: World, I mean through our support in the Malidivs in Colombia,
Speaker 10: in Africa, in many countries we have no more sex
Speaker 10: disaggregated data, which is fantastic for many different purposes.
Speaker 2: I mean this wild so basic right now.
Speaker 10: Yeah, absolutely, I mean to to sort of to know
Speaker 10: of how many men and women there are children. So
Speaker 10: we have quite a couple of countries where we can
Speaker 10: show success, where we can show impact, and this impact
Speaker 10: is leading governments also to invest more into data and statistics.
Speaker 10: So you can say the glass is maybe more half
Speaker 10: full than half empty in our area. But through these
Speaker 10: events like what we have here at the highest level
Speaker 10: that we had the DSG. I mean, AMohamed was opening
Speaker 10: the High Impact Initiative. We had another event, just a
Speaker 10: breakfast on seven am in the morning, full room, very
Speaker 10: very important people. So there is more consideration for the topic.
Speaker 10: And I'm rather optimistic than for the next eight years
Speaker 10: that we can give it a big push and we
Speaker 10: will be able to convince more people that this is
Speaker 10: an important part of the development nexus.
Speaker 6: Johannas you talked about Google and Like or the media
Speaker 6: you're going that you've had, or the conversations you've had,
Speaker 6: and I do wonder about how much increasingly the private
Speaker 6: sector complain all of this. It's interesting. We had a
Speaker 6: guest yesterday and we talked about the roaring and the
Speaker 6: crash and FDR, and we talked about who were the
Speaker 6: power brokers back then? It was you know, the Carnegie
Speaker 6: and you know those kind of folks who are industrialists.
Speaker 6: Today's power brokers are the data CEOs and the data companies.
Speaker 6: What you are trying to do, does it increasingly have
Speaker 6: to come from the private sector or does that not
Speaker 6: necessarily give you the purest data that you want.
Speaker 10: It's a very very important question. They have so much
Speaker 10: They have so much data, but of course data is
Speaker 10: also linked to power, and it has lots of questions
Speaker 10: about confidentiality. It's about the use, the safe use of
Speaker 10: the data, and of course these companies want to make business.
Speaker 10: What we are talking here is about a public good.
Speaker 10: So if you talk specifically about a specific subcutory like
Speaker 10: official statistics, I would say this should stay in the
Speaker 10: hand of governments. There are certain criteria, we have principles
Speaker 10: for how to produce those things. It's a public good.
Speaker 10: We don't know what happens to those data, but I
Speaker 10: think some of these data is just essential for the government,
Speaker 10: for private sector, for civil society as well, to see
Speaker 10: where a country stands, how is it about the education system.
Speaker 10: So to leave this to the private sector, I don't
Speaker 10: think it's a good idea to have the private sector
Speaker 10: feed into those official statistics. That's a very different question.
Speaker 10: We need to be on the same level playing field.
Speaker 10: And we just talked about the numbers. If you look
Speaker 10: at the budget of an official statistical office in a
Speaker 10: poor country and you compare it with any other private
Speaker 10: sector of funding, it's very clear where the power relate,
Speaker 10: how the power relationship is.
Speaker 6: We'll invest your money, not flow in if you don't
Speaker 6: have those data sets well to some expensehip.
Speaker 10: Absolutely, I mean it's flowing in. But then we make
Speaker 10: in some countries where we this birth registration that I
Speaker 10: mentioned be registration, this is terrible. Mistakes are possible and
Speaker 10: also sort of investments that are not sort of leading
Speaker 10: to the estimated results.
Speaker 2: I mean the middle class for instance, you want to
Speaker 2: know as a as an investor, the middle class in
Speaker 2: India is it? Is it five hundred million?
Speaker 4: Now?
Speaker 2: How big is it?
Speaker 8: Actually?
Speaker 3: Do you always trust the data?
Speaker 8: No?
Speaker 2: No, not at all. I mean there is I mean
Speaker 2: there were no but.
Speaker 3: There is calling out individual countries specifically or feel free to.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that there are. Can they can talk
Speaker 2: about the past.
Speaker 6: Even the developed markets, right, we questioned some of the.
Speaker 10: There are two examples that very well known and it's
Speaker 10: Greece and also Argentina at some point in the past.
Speaker 10: And there was about the inflation CPI, which is very
Speaker 10: well documented. So the the good thing is that there
Speaker 10: is a trusted community that would call out those misbehavior.
Speaker 10: There's also a misunderstanding. Sometimes there is not one choose
Speaker 10: in the data that is not it it's not truths.
Speaker 2: It's what's important is you make it.
Speaker 10: Very clear that you by to statistical standards and that
Speaker 10: the data is sort of produced with a certain quality standards,
Speaker 10: and you make it very open, and then you can
Speaker 10: start a debate about it, which is really more fascinating
Speaker 10: than you sometimes tend to believe.
Speaker 6: I know, for my daughter, because you don't work with
Speaker 6: you guys in gender, Why gender versus healthcare versus employment
Speaker 6: versus financing, or how do you choose where you want
Speaker 6: to focus on? How does that or is that determined
Speaker 6: by the money that comes in in somebody's interest, or
Speaker 6: how do you figure because there's so many probably different
Speaker 6: ways you could go.
Speaker 10: Absolutely, I mean the demand is immense. I think many
Speaker 10: of the questions around gender are underpinning.
Speaker 2: Every other sector.
Speaker 10: If you look at development, we look often at sectors,
Speaker 10: we look at agriculture, we look at health, we look
Speaker 10: at education. If you try to improve all those sectors,
Speaker 10: and the SDGs have seventeen different quote unquote sectors, gender
Speaker 10: is underpinning everything. I mean in terms of if we
Speaker 10: invest in good investment in gender statistics, which could be
Speaker 10: I mean sex disaggregated data, but also a gender based violence,
Speaker 10: which is important to document as well, so it's.
Speaker 2: Underpinning all other sectors.
Speaker 10: And what you also probably have talked about quite a
Speaker 10: lot in the show is about the economic benefit to
Speaker 10: use the potential of women's empowerment, in particular, for instance,
Speaker 10: to access to ownership rights of resources, land, credit, insurance.
Speaker 10: So once you unlock this potential, once you have an
Speaker 10: opportunity and you know how many women have access to
Speaker 10: land and what kind of land and credit and education,
Speaker 10: this will help you to make targeted investment and which
Speaker 10: helps for all other sectors. So it's a huge multiplier effect.
Speaker 10: Next to there's an intrinsic value that women and men
Speaker 10: should be treated equally.
Speaker 3: Okay, what about when it comes to data collection and
Speaker 3: how different countries are collecting data? Are you seeing, you know,
Speaker 3: in terms of developing countries where they don't necessarily have
Speaker 3: the infrastructure built in, are you seeing them investing technologies
Speaker 3: that are so called lead frogging technologies that allow them
Speaker 3: to sort of bypass the big infrastructure investments that were
Speaker 3: made in the past. And I'm thinking, like, you know,
Speaker 3: ways to provide internet to folks without wireline broadband, you know,
Speaker 3: without actually digging holes using satellites, being able to use
Speaker 3: data collection instead of launching satellites, use drones for example.
Speaker 10: This is happening and I'm personally I collected myself when
Speaker 10: I did my master's thesis. I went to a couple
Speaker 10: of countries and collected data from my own seasons. So
Speaker 10: I was working with national statistical offices and we had
Speaker 10: these paper forms. So you went with a paper form
Speaker 10: with a questionnaire and you asked all these questions and
Speaker 10: then you went back and then you had to type
Speaker 10: it in that I have seen statistical office packed with
Speaker 10: lots of paper and it looks like in your office
Speaker 10: small less anyway, So this is changing now using mobile
Speaker 10: phones and copies and and and different forms of basically
Speaker 10: collecting the data electronically.
Speaker 2: And this is happening.
Speaker 10: Even in poor countries, so there are technolog You said
Speaker 10: it very nicely that this leap frogging is happening.
Speaker 2: I mean we are not seeing.
Speaker 10: We also work at the OECD with of course rich
Speaker 10: country statistical offices, and you can really see the difference
Speaker 10: of how national statistical office, in particular in these middle
Speaker 10: income categories like Philippines, eventually Ghana, Columbia, how they jump
Speaker 10: over this and how they change the infrastructure and through
Speaker 10: very different forms of using modern technologies.
Speaker 2: And this is really how very very nice to see.
Speaker 6: Well, I know in our prop call I said, you're
Speaker 6: kind of openable. Windowed is something that we are not
Speaker 6: necessarily aware of, and we just take for granted that
Speaker 6: there's so much data everywhere. So this was really enlightening.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Thank you so much.
Speaker 6: Safe time to be here, so enjoyed it. Johannes Shutin,
Speaker 6: his executive head of the Partnership in Statistics for Development
Speaker 6: in the twenty first Century aka Paris twenty one. This
Speaker 6: is still Parmark.
Speaker 2: Journal.
Speaker 4: Now about you let me drive?
Speaker 2: Oh no, no, no, no, who's going to jog home?
Speaker 10: Honey?
Speaker 2: Please gravels. Let's mate, I want to try.
Speaker 3: It's a good question.
Speaker 2: This is the drive to the Globe dot com thing?
Speaker 8: Well, Bun on Bloomberg.
Speaker 6: Radio, all right, everybody, Carol Master along as him stead
Speaker 6: Who is that?
Speaker 2: I just can't who is that?
Speaker 6: We're going to talk about more of what I was doing.
Speaker 6: Later on, we were at the earth Shot Prize in
Speaker 6: the Bloomberg Innovation Summit here at the Plaza in New
Speaker 6: York City. But it's all about innovators who are doing
Speaker 6: very cool things. A lot of it is about how
Speaker 6: can we improve the climate. I'm sorry I missed reduced
Speaker 6: the carbon footprint.
Speaker 3: I'm sorry I missed it.
Speaker 6: I'm glad you're being William was a little ticked off.
Speaker 3: Did you tell him? I said, high, I will like okay,
Speaker 3: but I was holding on the fort Don't worry.
Speaker 6: He did talk about this Treasury tenure yield rising to
Speaker 6: four point three six five percent high since two thousand
Speaker 6: and seven. He did not, But nonetheless we are talking
Speaker 6: about it. We want to see what Charles Tan has
Speaker 6: to say, because this is definitely in his wheelhouse. He's
Speaker 6: co the io of Global fixed Income at American Centric Investments.
Speaker 6: He's here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio and he's
Speaker 6: been watching how the sausage is made. Thank you, thank you, welcome, welcome.
Speaker 6: Ten year, five year, we've seen the highest yealed since
Speaker 6: seven significant.
Speaker 9: Absolutely, yeah. So you know, over past the couple of years,
Speaker 9: I think some of the major changes in a global
Speaker 9: economy and also global inflation markets are leading to this
Speaker 9: higher inflation and not surprisingly higher rates environment. And you know,
Speaker 9: we think having said that, we feel like, you know,
Speaker 9: tomorrow is a FED meeting, right, so that could well
Speaker 9: be the end of this you know, hiking cycle. We
Speaker 9: are expecting what's so called about like a hawkish you
Speaker 9: pause tomorrow, meaning that you know there were a pause.
Speaker 6: But you read the Bloomberg story. That's at hawkish past.
Speaker 9: Okay, yeah, that has been that's actually been sort of
Speaker 9: the market consensus for for a while. So and we're
Speaker 9: definitely going along with that, you know, the the market
Speaker 9: on sentence on this one. But you're not gonna pause
Speaker 9: and not gonna sound the hawk ish. So there still
Speaker 9: might be a chance of a hike in November, but
Speaker 9: a we believe by the time when no Womber comes around, uh,
Speaker 9: the economic data will be weak enough for them to
Speaker 9: say it this is it.
Speaker 3: Okay, I'm gonna just throw this out there. I'm gonna
Speaker 3: get a little crazy.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 3: I was walking in the office yesterday and we're to
Speaker 3: that point in the economic cycle where a colleague of
Speaker 3: mine who you know, doesn't you know, he stops me,
Speaker 3: knows what I do for work, and he's like, I
Speaker 3: want to talk to you about bonds, and he's like
Speaker 3: he's close to retirement, He's like, why would I not
Speaker 3: buy two year bonds that yield over five percent?
Speaker 1: Right now?
Speaker 3: He's like, I've ignored bonds for years, right, why would
Speaker 3: I not do that right now? And I said, first
Speaker 3: of all, I can't provide investment advice. Friend, I have
Speaker 3: no idea, but I'll ask I'll ask Charles all about it.
Speaker 9: Well, I would say, you know, your colleague is it's
Speaker 9: definitely on the right path, you know, because you know
Speaker 9: this is a very uh, the very first time in
Speaker 9: multiple years. Actually, investors and savers, if you're retirement nurse
Speaker 9: thing about savings actually getting a really you know, attractive yield. Right,
Speaker 9: So you talk about a five percent you can put
Speaker 9: your money in the money market, don't worry about it,
Speaker 9: or can put your money in buying treasure reviews. Five percent,
Speaker 9: that's it. You feel pretty good about it. If you're
Speaker 9: willing to take a litt bit more risk. Let's say
Speaker 9: in a way you actually recently launch a new product
Speaker 9: called fusing that's an ETF floating rate instrument. A little
Speaker 9: bit more risk, double a rated. You know in the
Speaker 9: bond world, you know highs this trip away doubles in it.
Speaker 9: Then you know high those kind of things. So double
Speaker 9: A average is very high quality.
Speaker 2: So is this corporate?
Speaker 9: This is a corporate structured and also floating rate mortgage
Speaker 9: boond altogether floating rates. You don't take any risk on
Speaker 9: a floating rate interest rates. It takes a little bit
Speaker 9: credit risk. You get a seven percent. If you're a
Speaker 9: little bit more adventurous, you can go into high yield
Speaker 9: the bank loans you can get a to ten percent. Right,
Speaker 9: So there's a far cry from a merely like a
Speaker 9: you are and a half two years ago.
Speaker 5: Right.
Speaker 9: If you compare bonds today versus the stocks, it's also
Speaker 9: the polar opposite. Two years ago, I think you know,
Speaker 9: Bonni yield as we know was almost zero, and you
Speaker 9: know stock dividend yield was about like two percent and
Speaker 9: earning about five percent. Today Bonnie yield is about five
Speaker 9: to six percent seven percent. Can take a bit more risk.
Speaker 9: But where is dividend one point five percent and where
Speaker 9: is earning? It is only four percent? Right, So that's
Speaker 9: why you're seeing a lot of you know, flows into
Speaker 9: money market funds, into you know, short duration funds. And
Speaker 9: I think your friend is really having his mind in.
Speaker 8: The right place.
Speaker 6: But that's interesting talk to us about where the investment
Speaker 6: money is going. Is it all short duration at this point?
Speaker 9: I think so far. Uh, you know, the flow, the
Speaker 9: vast majority of flow are going into the short end
Speaker 9: money market funds in but which is out of history.
Speaker 9: Just really sure, right, But we also believe there are
Speaker 9: opportunities now with the FED, you know, almost at the
Speaker 9: end of the hiking cycle, the ten year you just
Speaker 9: mentioned about the four point three six percent, we think
Speaker 9: it looks attractive. The reason we think it's attractive is
Speaker 9: because you know, when you have a recession, when you
Speaker 9: have economic slowdown, when inflition comes down, interest rates tend
Speaker 9: to decline right when that declines, and you can you know,
Speaker 9: add you know, sort of more duration to a papoli
Speaker 9: by buying not only in front end but also you know,
Speaker 9: five year bomb, seven year boond, ten year bomb.
Speaker 6: But investors aren't doing that yet.
Speaker 3: Not yet, because they because they don't know if the
Speaker 3: hiking cycle is done. I think there is more room
Speaker 3: to run on yields.
Speaker 9: I think there is anxiety about, you know, the sort
Speaker 9: of when the hiking cycle will be down and what
Speaker 9: that means for.
Speaker 3: That's an understatement, yes, absolutely right.
Speaker 6: Well, honestly, I think the whole anxiety and all caps
Speaker 6: exclamation point, exclamation point, the whole world.
Speaker 9: Is beating on. You know, is the infliction really turning
Speaker 9: or it's going to be actually reviving at a sort
Speaker 9: of But.
Speaker 6: To that point, fundamentally, it's interesting coming from the earth
Speaker 6: Shot Innovation Summit that we do here at Bloomberg. You know,
Speaker 6: it's all about reducing the carbon footprint. But we are
Speaker 6: in this interesting cycle where we it feels like more
Speaker 6: companies are getting more aggressive about their ESG aspects and
Speaker 6: reducing their carbon footprint. I mean, hottest year on record already, yes, globally,
Speaker 6: So I do wonder those shifts, some of those things
Speaker 6: that are out there, doesn't mean that the inflation picture
Speaker 6: is higher than it's been And do we need to
Speaker 6: accept that?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think even if the FED will not, that's right.
Speaker 9: So I think that this inflation sort of a trend
Speaker 9: is a very complicated question, you know, as it should be.
Speaker 9: The way we look at it is this, you know,
Speaker 9: we think that inflation in the near term called it
Speaker 9: one to two years, is going to be going down,
Speaker 9: but then over a three to five year time horizon
Speaker 9: you may well come back. So this is what we
Speaker 9: call cyclically you know, down but circular up. Why we
Speaker 9: think of that the case near term one two years,
Speaker 9: you know, in that term horizon, we believe they're going
Speaker 9: to be hard lending, be a recession, and in the recession,
Speaker 9: you know, demand will go down and the supply will
Speaker 9: naturally go up, and you know, the trend of inflation
Speaker 9: naturally will go you know, go down in that time horizon.
Speaker 9: Another factor really is money supply. You know, I'm sure
Speaker 9: you know over the past two or three years, there's
Speaker 9: a huge supply in money supply, right, so now money supply,
Speaker 9: and we're going.
Speaker 6: To talk about with the New York State Controller Thomas
Speaker 6: di Napoli. Like in the last three years, it's been
Speaker 6: great for state cities, right They've been able to cut
Speaker 6: taxes because there's been so much money coming in very
Speaker 6: different environments.
Speaker 9: Exactly, so you know, you know, and to right now
Speaker 9: is contracting, which is supporting sort of that inflation will
Speaker 9: be down at least for the next couple of years.
Speaker 9: But then longer term, we believe there are many structures
Speaker 9: sort of changes in the globe economy, including esg energies,
Speaker 9: you know, lacks of energy sort of an investment but
Speaker 9: there are other forces at work as well that will
Speaker 9: push that inflation search.
Speaker 6: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Bridge gets Wan
Speaker 6: to talk with you. Thank you and thank you for
Speaker 6: dealing with our craziness.
Speaker 10: Before we went on.
Speaker 6: Get a little idea behind the scenes, Charleston, He's Cocio
Speaker 6: of Global Fixed and come over at American Century Investments.
Speaker 6: Here in studio.
Speaker 5: This is the.
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