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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Bobby Bones here, we're at the table for

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Speaker 1: this Bobby Cast. We're going to talk about musicians even

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Speaker 1: actors that were discovered by as the Internet says, pure luck.

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Speaker 1: Now I'm not a big luck guy, but these are

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Speaker 1: what I think the Internet says are the luckiest discoveries

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Speaker 1: in music and acting. And then after this, we're going

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Speaker 1: to talk with a doctor, doctor Annie Duke, about luck

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Speaker 1: and about quitting. All right. Number one, Elvis Presley and

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Speaker 1: Sun Records nineteen fifty three. Have you heard of the

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Speaker 1: gift recording? No? So, Elvis, eighteen years old walks into

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Speaker 1: Sun Studio in Memphis to record a couple songs. He

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Speaker 1: paid four dollars to cut two songs, My Happiness and

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Speaker 1: That's when your Heartache Begins. He paid that money so

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Speaker 1: he could record what he said was a gift to

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Speaker 1: his mom. The session was ran by Marion Kisker, who

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Speaker 1: is Sam phillips assistant. She saw him, thought it was

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Speaker 1: super interesting, went and told Sam Phillips about Elvis. Sam

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Speaker 1: Phillips was looking for a white singer who could convincingly

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Speaker 1: sing with black musical phrasing and field a blues arm

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Speaker 1: and by style and Sam Phillips then knew of Elvis Presley.

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Speaker 1: Nothing happened months past, and then Sam Phillips called Elvis

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Speaker 1: back because he needed someone to come in and sing

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Speaker 1: all from that record. He was paying four dollars for

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Speaker 1: his mom so he could do a gift session.

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Speaker 2: That is crazy. I didn't know that. That's how it started.

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Speaker 3: I always pictured, you know, Elvis going in the sun

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Speaker 3: and being like, Ohm, Elvis Presley, I'd like to sing

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Speaker 3: for you.

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Speaker 2: Mister Phillips.

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Speaker 1: He called him back to try sessions with guitarist Scottie

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Speaker 1: Moore and the bassist Bill Black. The early takes, they say,

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Speaker 1: were stiff, nothing clicked. During a break, Elvis started fooling

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Speaker 1: around with an Arthur Crudup blues tune, which is that's

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Speaker 1: all right, yeah, And so they sped it up, gave

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Speaker 1: it kind of a country bounce, and then in nineteen

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Speaker 1: fifty four, the first single, That's all Right with Blue

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Speaker 1: Moon Kentucky on the B side, God, It's amazing, a

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Speaker 1: local DJ played reportedly on Memphis radio listeners flood of

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Speaker 1: the station with calls, and there you go. All of

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Speaker 1: that because Elvis was in to record a birthday gift

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Speaker 1: for his mom.

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Speaker 2: Okay, and you think that's luck.

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Speaker 1: I don't believe in luck.

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Speaker 2: You think that's fate.

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Speaker 1: No, I think, and I think we'll talk about in

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Speaker 1: a minute when I have annion. I think anything lucky

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Speaker 1: happens because of decisions you made leading up to that.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't matter what it is. I think it's all

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Speaker 1: decision based. I think there are random occurrences, but I

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Speaker 1: don't believe in defining luck at all. But I think

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Speaker 1: if you're looking at how people define extreme luck and

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Speaker 1: people just being discovered, this is one of them that

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Speaker 1: makes a list.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, man, that's pretty lucky. It's so lucky that he

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Speaker 3: just went in there for a gift. And then the

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Speaker 3: fact that his assistant was like, I almost think that

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Speaker 3: that's amazing that somebody makes such an impression on someone

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Speaker 3: that they're going to tell someone else about it.

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Speaker 1: It's probably their job though, too, if they're working in there,

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Speaker 1: Like he says, hey, if somebody really good cousin, let

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Speaker 1: me know.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I didn't think about that, yeah. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And then also he waited months, so who knows how

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Speaker 1: many other people he called and it just didn't work out, right, Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's number one on the list at number two, October seventeenth,

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Speaker 1: nineteen sixty one. The Rolling Stones on a random train

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Speaker 1: station and there's a reunion. Mick Jagger, Keith Richards. They

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Speaker 1: randomly run into each other after years apart. Now what

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Speaker 1: happens is Keith notices Mick because he's holding a blues record.

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Speaker 1: It was an imported American blues record with Muddy Waters

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Speaker 1: Chuck Berry. Those records were extremely rare in England at

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Speaker 1: the time, and so they had known each other a

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Speaker 1: little bit. But because you're talking about childhood acquaintances, but

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Speaker 1: because they were holding the record, they started talking about music,

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Speaker 1: They started playing music. They then became a band. And

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Speaker 1: so one random trained platform interaction holding a record that

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Speaker 1: made them want to talk about that kind of music

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Speaker 1: ended up creating The Stones.

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Speaker 2: I love that.

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Speaker 1: I mean five minutes earlier, five minutes later, different train.

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Speaker 3: Hey what if somebody else was holding the record of

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Speaker 3: Chuck Berry, no record at all, no record, than they

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Speaker 3: wouldn't stopped and talked they or.

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Speaker 1: They wouldn't have talked about music for sure, and we

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Speaker 1: probably wouldn't have their only Stones. Yes, so if if

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Speaker 1: there was no record, they may have said, Hey, Keith,

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Speaker 1: good to see you. Again, remember when we used to

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Speaker 1: have crumpets. I remember that night and there would have

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Speaker 1: been no talking music. But because they both had a

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Speaker 1: love for American blues, you have the rolling Stones to

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Speaker 1: get in together.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yes, absolutely, Justin Bieber.

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Speaker 3: Oh oh, what's this? It can't be the YouTube video.

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Speaker 3: It's absolutely YouTube video.

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Speaker 1: So it's the the accidental YouTube click that changed pop music.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if I were ranking modern luck stories with

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Speaker 1: finger quotes, I think this is probably one of my favorites.

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Speaker 1: Bieber's twelve to thirteen years old in Stratford, Ontario. He

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Speaker 1: enters a local singing competition, doesn't win, finish a second.

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Speaker 1: His mom uploads the performance video to YouTube so friends

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Speaker 1: and family can watch. It wasn't hey, everyone discover my kid.

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Speaker 1: YouTube really wasn't massive like it is now, and it

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Speaker 1: wasn't being used for artists discovery. Then there was no

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Speaker 1: strategy except hey, everybody that knows us, you can go

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Speaker 1: to this link and watch Justin sing Wow. Scooter Braun

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Speaker 1: was searching YouTube for a different artist. He clicked on

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Speaker 1: Bieber's video by mistake, so there was nothing there except

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Speaker 1: he typed in something. Bieber's video came up, he hit

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Speaker 1: it and then watched it. It wasn't a submission, it

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Speaker 1: wasn't a meeting referral. And Scooter Braun had been like

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Speaker 1: a promoter, you know. It wasn't like Scooter bron was

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Speaker 1: this massive talent manager at the time either, And so

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Speaker 1: he tracked him down through according to the story, which

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Speaker 1: again it is always weird to track down a kid.

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Speaker 2: Kid, Yes, track his mom down, man.

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Speaker 1: So through school contacts, YouTube messages, eventually convincing the mom

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Speaker 1: to let Justin fly to Atlanta.

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Speaker 3: Do you say school contexts like some I mean he'd

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Speaker 3: called the school and be.

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Speaker 1: Like, it's just what it says when I started researching it.

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Speaker 1: So they just went school contacts, Yeah, to cover it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, now that it's Justin Bieber, it's like, oh,

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Speaker 2: cool story.

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Speaker 3: But man, at the time, it's a little that's dicey.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, imagine that you're a mom and someone

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Speaker 1: hits you up and goes, hey, send your thirteen year

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Speaker 1: old to me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think so.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a tough one. Uh, all good. And so

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Speaker 1: Scooter Braun introduces Bieber to Usher. Usher Season Performed, signs

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Speaker 1: him to a joint deal Island Records, and from there

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Speaker 1: one time baby, all of that, and so why it's lucky.

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Speaker 1: This wasn't years trying to make it in La or Nashville,

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Speaker 1: where we live. It wasn't him grinding the showcase circus circuits,

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Speaker 1: or wasn't his mom even trying to get him out there.

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Speaker 1: It was literally a suburban kid in Canada who his

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Speaker 1: mom wanted to show basically his cousins his performance that

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Speaker 1: he didn't even win. Secondary of the story. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: that is how Justin Bieber was discovered.

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Speaker 3: You know what's crazy is sometimes I'm actually looking for

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Speaker 3: a YouTube video and I can't find it, Like I'm

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Speaker 3: using every keyword possible to find something. I can't find it.

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Speaker 3: The fact that this video made it to Scooter braun

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Speaker 3: like and I.

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Speaker 1: Think he was looking for another kid, like another performer.

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Speaker 1: But was he just searching kid performers? I don't know

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Speaker 1: what I mean. I've got a few other ones too,

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Speaker 1: So these aren't music. But if we're going if you

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Speaker 1: believe in luck, here's Harrison Ford's Do you know this one?

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Speaker 4: No?

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Speaker 1: Mid nineteen seventies.

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Speaker 2: Wait a minute, is he a carpenter?

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Speaker 1: He's a carpenter. Harrison Ford is not a star. He

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Speaker 1: had done some very small roles, including very blink and

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Speaker 1: You'll Miss It parts in American Graffiti, and acting was

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Speaker 1: not paying the bill, so we had to stop acting.

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Speaker 1: So he became a carpenter in Hollywood. He built cabinets

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Speaker 1: and installed doors for directors and producers. One of those

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Speaker 1: directors was George Lucas, so he was working Harrison Ford

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Speaker 1: construction in Lucas's office during the casting for Star Wars. Wow.

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Speaker 1: He wasn't auditioning, he was there, and since he was there,

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Speaker 1: he was asked to read line's opposite of other actors

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Speaker 1: as a favor as basically a chemistry test. Wasn't even

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Speaker 1: really in the running, but Lucas kept using him since

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Speaker 1: he was there and kept noticing him. And then also

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Speaker 1: because he really wasn't trying out for it. Harrison Ford

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Speaker 1: wasn't nervous, he was just there to help. There was

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Speaker 1: nothing for him to lose, and so eventually Lucas said,

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Speaker 1: let's give him the part, and the part was Han Solo. Gosh,

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Speaker 1: that's amazing, and he is a superstar from that role.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, from Han Solo, oh, and then and then Indiana Jones.

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Speaker 1: But he would have never got those roles right, had

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Speaker 1: Hans Soulo not happened.

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Speaker 2: So he did American Graffiti before all that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, kind of just a small little role, A tiny

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Speaker 1: role in American Grif Wow, so so small that he

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Speaker 1: didn't turn that into any other acting roles.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but American Graffiti is George Lucas, so I guess

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Speaker 3: it was just like he's, oh, yeah, he's the guys

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Speaker 3: in my movie's awesome.

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Speaker 1: Let's keep this guy around the Bill shells. Yeah. Charlie

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Speaker 1: stair On, she was discovered during a bank meltdown. What

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Speaker 1: early nineteen ninety. Charlie stair On is nineteen years old.

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Speaker 1: She had just moved to Los Angeles. She has basically

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Speaker 1: no money. She goes into a bank to cash a

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Speaker 1: check from her mom back in South Africa even at

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Speaker 1: the time. Now, if we got to check in South Africa,

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Speaker 1: that's where her a scam. The teller refuses, something about

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Speaker 1: out of state processing. I guess it's even harder if

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Speaker 1: it's out of country. She gets frustrated, not screaming, but

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Speaker 1: she's extremely loud, passionate, animated. She refuses to leave now

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Speaker 1: since it is California. Standing behind her as a talent

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Speaker 1: agent named John Crosby watching the meltdown, and he watches

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Speaker 1: the whole thing. According to the stories that I read,

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Speaker 1: this is what he saw, presidence, confidence, and command of

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Speaker 1: the room. I bet he also saw somebody that was attracted.

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Speaker 2: Yes, of course he.

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Speaker 1: Approaches her and gives her his card, and then that

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Speaker 1: meeting led to her taking acting classes because he suggested, Hey,

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Speaker 1: why don't you start learning to act, which then led

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Speaker 1: to auditions, which led to two days in the Valley,

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Speaker 1: which led to the Devil's Advocate, then Monster than an Oscar. Wow.

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Speaker 1: So if she goes to a different bank, if she

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Speaker 1: doesn't argue, if she's not in the line that day,

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Speaker 1: if he's not in the line that day, we probably

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Speaker 1: don't know. Charlie starroon.

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Speaker 3: Do you think if she went to the bank and

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Speaker 3: they did process the check, no problem, no argument.

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Speaker 2: But that was still hot?

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Speaker 1: I don't man, eighteen nineteen year old girl probably not

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Speaker 1: a reson maybe, but I think that probably was part

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Speaker 1: of it, the scene that was being caused, the attention

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Speaker 1: drawn to her. Because in La Hot Dudes and Girls

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Speaker 1: or a Diamond Doze, you're right there everywhere. If you're hot,

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Speaker 1: you just move out there. It's kind of like here's

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Speaker 1: your train ticket, you know, right and a half. Here's

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Speaker 1: a free train ticket to go to Los Angeles. So

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Speaker 1: there you go. I'll give you one other one. Chris

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Speaker 1: Pratt before well, what do you think his most famous

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Speaker 1: movie is Guardians of the Galaxy? Yeah, me too, Jurassic World,

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Speaker 1: will Shake a Friend? But yeah, yeah. Chris Pratt was

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Speaker 1: living in a van in Maui. He worked at Bubba

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Speaker 1: Gump Shrimp Company. Way one day, act director ray Dn

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Speaker 1: Chong went in. He waited on her. He was funny.

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Speaker 1: He was not trying to be discovered because he didn't

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Speaker 1: know who she was. She asks if he's ever acted?

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Speaker 1: Now again, he was funny with the table, probably hustling

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Speaker 1: for tips. No, he's never acted. She casts him in

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Speaker 1: a short film that she's directing. The product. The project

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Speaker 1: gets some footage, the footage gets some representation. The representation

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Speaker 1: gets him on the WB Show, Everwood, then Parks and

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Speaker 1: rec then Marvel. Wow. If he had a different section

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Speaker 1: that day, if he calls in sick, if he's not

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Speaker 1: assigned that table, if he's not funny, he's having a

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Speaker 1: bad day. If he's sick leading up to it, None

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Speaker 1: of that happens. No, star lord. No, I don't know

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Speaker 1: who he is in Jurassic World. No Dinosaur Jones.

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Speaker 2: Maybe where's the hat?

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Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, yeah, yeah does a tour. So that's random,

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Speaker 1: that's so cool, lucky.

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Speaker 3: Some would say, do you know the Matthemcaughey one I

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Speaker 3: did not, where his buddy was a bart tender at

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Speaker 3: a hotel restaurant.

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Speaker 1: Is this one of those stories? M matter gone. He's

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Speaker 1: just saying crap because, like his book is, I don't think.

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Speaker 2: That's all true. It's in the book. It's in the book.

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Speaker 3: And he goes to see his buddy at the bar

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Speaker 3: and he's sitting there and then there's a director next

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Speaker 3: to him and say he's like, hey, so what are

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Speaker 3: you in town for. He's like, oh, I'm doing a

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Speaker 3: movie called Day's Confused. We're shooting here Richard Linkletter or whatever.

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Speaker 2: I'm a producer.

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Speaker 3: And he goes, you should stop by the set, you know,

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Speaker 3: like you have a good look to you. I don't

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Speaker 3: know there are no rolls or anything that are open,

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Speaker 3: but you should stop buying and see see what's up.

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Speaker 3: So he's like, cool, I'll do that, and he goes

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Speaker 3: and that's the Watersoon roll. They and Richard Linkletter, the

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Speaker 3: director of Days and Confused, was like, you know what,

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Speaker 3: I have this character, like we never we weren't really

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Speaker 3: going to put him in the movie. We just drive

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Speaker 3: a car and like, just be cool, man, it's a

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Speaker 3: muscle car, and just be yourself. And then he said

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Speaker 3: that all right, all right, all right. Wasn't even a line.

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Speaker 3: He said that, it was just something that he said

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Speaker 3: while they were pulling up. He's like, all right, all right,

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Speaker 3: all right, but that was his staple. But that same

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Speaker 3: producer was like, cool, thank you for doing that.

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Speaker 2: That was awesome. Man, If you're ever in La, hit

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Speaker 2: me up. That was it.

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Speaker 3: And he says, like, I didn't know, but he said,

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Speaker 3: if I'm ever in La, hit me up. He packed

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Speaker 3: his van, he drove to La and went straight to

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Speaker 3: that guy's house, knocked on the door and the guy's like,

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Speaker 3: who are you What are you doing here? He's like,

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Speaker 3: he told me, man, if I was ever in La, like,

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Speaker 3: hit you up, I'm here, and he's like, oh great,

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Speaker 3: all right. He took me up on it. So then

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Speaker 3: he showed him around and yeah, like he then he

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Speaker 3: got a couple of roles and the rest is history.

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Speaker 3: But the fact that Matthew McConaughey had just rolled with everything.

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Speaker 3: Come to the set, maybe there's a role for you.

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Speaker 3: Show up cool, come to LA. If you're ever in LA,

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Speaker 3: hit me up.

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Speaker 1: So he just goes.

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Speaker 2: He just went with it and it.

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Speaker 1: Worked a lot of this too, though, is matthe McCaughey

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Speaker 1: was a really good looking guy.

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Speaker 2: He was, Yes, yes, charming.

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Speaker 1: I don't think if it's me there they offered me

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Speaker 1: a role in a movie. But yes, a lot of

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Speaker 1: this stuff is situational. Hang tight.

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Speaker 5: The Bobby Cast will be right back, and we're back

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Speaker 5: on the Bobby Cast.

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Speaker 1: And now we're gonna go over and talk to Annie Duke.

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Speaker 1: She is really one of the smartest voices when it

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Speaker 1: comes to decision making. And we're going to start with luck,

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Speaker 1: just like we were talking about here a second ago,

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Speaker 1: and how to define luck again. I have a big

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Speaker 1: problem with luck. But you may know Annie from her

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Speaker 1: books Thinking in Bets. She has a new book called Quit,

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Speaker 1: which is all about knowing when to walk away from things, jobs, relationships, habits.

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Speaker 1: She has a fascinating background, from studying cognitive psychology to

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Speaker 1: being a really successful poker player, even winning a massive

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Speaker 1: paper rock says as tournament, which she did, and so

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Speaker 1: if she's helping people and kids make better decisions every day.

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Speaker 1: Here's my conversation with Annie Duke. Do they call you

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Speaker 1: doctor Duke?

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Speaker 4: I mean, I have a PhD. But like people usually

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Speaker 4: just call me Annie, I don't. Sometimes I get introduced

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Speaker 4: as doctor Duke. It's actually like I'm a little legoo.

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Speaker 1: Well, I didn't want to be disrespectful, and doctor Duke

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Speaker 1: sounds like a really cool Marvel hero.

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Speaker 4: But I'm that's just true, that's true. Maybe I should

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Speaker 4: go for it. I can be in the movie.

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Speaker 1: I'm super excited to talk to you for a lot

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Speaker 1: of reasons, and I do want to talk about quitting

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Speaker 1: in a second. But as I was doing vast research

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Speaker 1: for this, and I had already seen your ted talk

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Speaker 1: on risk, which I thought was fantastic, and I want

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Speaker 1: to get to that too. Think I did not know

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Speaker 1: that you played in a paper rock scissors tournament and

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Speaker 1: one that's my dan I want dancing with the stars,

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Speaker 1: that's my version of that. That's the coolest thing.

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Speaker 2: That I could possibly talk to you about.

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Speaker 4: What was that about, I, Well, there was a tournament.

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Speaker 4: It was it was like at the World series of

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Speaker 4: poker they did like a world championship Rock paper scissors

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Speaker 4: and yeah, I want it. I don't know, that's great,

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Speaker 4: good fun.

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Speaker 1: Did you have a plan or were you just up

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Speaker 1: there winging it.

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Speaker 4: There's some people where there's very clear patterns about what

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Speaker 4: they're going to throw. So if you can notice those,

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Speaker 4: then you can play against that because there's different probabilities

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Speaker 4: of different throws, like, for example, in the first throw,

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Speaker 4: there's different probabilities, so you can kind of play against that.

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Speaker 4: To tell you the truth, there were a couple of

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Speaker 4: people where I took out a dollar bill and I

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Speaker 4: would look at the first number in the serial number,

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Speaker 4: and if it was like zero, one or two, I

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Speaker 4: would throw rock, three, four or five, I would throw scissors,

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Speaker 4: so and so forth. So I basically used the dollar

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Speaker 4: bill as a random number generator because I felt like

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Speaker 4: if the other person was better at rock paper scissors

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Speaker 4: than me, and when I'm playing against people, I'm noticing

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Speaker 4: some patterns that I could take advantage of. If they

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Speaker 4: weren't as good, then if I felt like the person

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Speaker 4: was better than me, it was better for me to

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Speaker 4: use a random number generator, because then they can't do

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Speaker 4: what I was doing to other people.

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Speaker 1: Were you using the skills that you use now to

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Speaker 1: write your books and speak and just generally do science

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Speaker 1: in that tournament.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think that, yeah, I mean I think that

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Speaker 4: the type of skills that I teach in my classes

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Speaker 4: and my books, in my research, they really kind of

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Speaker 4: apply across the board. So, for example, you heard me

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Speaker 4: say so. In rock paper scissors, there's three things they

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Speaker 4: can do. There's you know, they can throw rock paper

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Speaker 4: or scissors. If someone's using a random number generator, each

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Speaker 4: of those is thirty three and a third. But if

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Speaker 4: they have a pattern, you're trying to figure out what

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Speaker 4: the probability of those different of those different throws might

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Speaker 4: be for that player, sometimes given what they just threw,

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Speaker 4: for example, sometimes given like they're their own tendencies that

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Speaker 4: you might notice, and then you're playing accordingly. And that's

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Speaker 4: like that idea of like, what are the different outcomes

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Speaker 4: that are available, what's the probability of those things occurring?

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Speaker 4: Is just like a super core decision skill, it's one

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Speaker 4: of the most important ones that you can have. Is

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Speaker 4: kind of approaching the world that way.

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Speaker 1: My final question about this, because again I just stumbled

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Speaker 1: across this is that are you allowed to scout people?

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Speaker 1: And do you watch every single person play every single round?

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Speaker 4: So the way they did it was everybody got paired

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Speaker 4: and you were all in a line. So I couldn't

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Speaker 4: scout anybody.

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Speaker 1: Oh got it because I was.

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Speaker 4: Playing at the same time as they were. But theoretically,

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Speaker 4: if it were a different if the way they were

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Speaker 4: running the tournament was different, I could.

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Speaker 1: Have Yeah, that's the coolest thing, Okay, But.

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Speaker 4: Honestly, like rock paper scissors is pretty random, like your

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Speaker 4: edge is be relatively small. So I also got very lucky,

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Speaker 4: which is another core decision skill is to recognize the

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Speaker 4: influence of luck and the things that occur.

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Speaker 1: But do you believe in luck generally? Because I'm not

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Speaker 1: a big luck guy.

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Speaker 4: Okay, I'm going to try to sway you.

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Speaker 1: Please. Can I tell you why first and you can

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Speaker 1: then you can poke holes in everything that I say.

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Speaker 1: I'm I'm not a big luck guy because I think

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Speaker 1: situations happen because of situations that we put ourselves in.

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Speaker 1: Meaning if I walk into a gas station and I

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Speaker 1: buy a scratch off, which I do and I've never hit,

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Speaker 1: but I walk in and I picked the random one

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Speaker 1: and I win, I won. Well, look how lucky I am. However,

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Speaker 1: I made the decision to go to that gas station

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Speaker 1: and put myself in a situation that allowed that quote

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Speaker 1: unquote luck to happen, So it would never be pure luck.

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Speaker 1: I mean that is often how I would defend me

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Speaker 1: saying I don't believe in pure luck? Can you poke

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Speaker 1: holes in that?

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Speaker 4: So I think that I can't the short answers I got,

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Speaker 4: So let's start with how we can do that. What

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Speaker 4: you actually described is actually a perfect description of what

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Speaker 4: I think about and what I write about in decision

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Speaker 4: making is the intersection of luck and skill. So when

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Speaker 4: we think about why anything occurs, it's going to occur

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Speaker 4: because of two things. Only thing number one. What you're

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Speaker 4: pointing out is the quality of the decision that you make. Right,

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Speaker 4: so you could make a poor decision, you could make

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Speaker 4: a good decision. I would argue playing the lotteries on

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Speaker 4: average of poor decisions because depending on why you're doing it,

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Speaker 4: But if you're trying to make money, it would be

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Speaker 4: a poor decision. But it depends on what your goals are.

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Speaker 4: But so you have the quality of the decision that

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Speaker 4: you make, which, as you just very succinctly put like

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Speaker 4: you put it very well, determines what the outcomes are

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Speaker 4: that are available to you. So if I never go

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Speaker 4: and play the lottery, winning the lottery isn't an available outcome.

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Speaker 4: If I do go to the store and I purchase

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Speaker 4: the ticket and I fill it out properly, and let's

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Speaker 4: hope that I don't lose it, right, those are all

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Speaker 4: decisions that are being made, and that then creates a

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Speaker 4: future which where one of the outcomes that could occur

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Speaker 4: or is winning the lottery.

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Speaker 1: Can I meet that?

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Speaker 4: If I don't do that, it can't happen right now.

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Speaker 1: And I completely understand and I agree with you in

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Speaker 1: that point. I would again, let's just say we were

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Speaker 1: having this little debate and we were getting points as

434
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 1: we went along. I would meet that with I don't

435
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,640
Speaker 1: believe in pure luck because then you're assigning luck being

436
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 1: positive to that outcome. But who knows if I then

437
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 1: win that money, and what I do, I'm so excited.

438
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 1: I get in my car, I'm like, wow, I can't

439
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 1: want boom, and I get hit because I'm not paying

440
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 1: attention because my excitement has been driven me.

441
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:38,159
Speaker 6: So so yeah, So let me get to the second piece,

442
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 6: So you have the quality of your decisions right, that

443
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 6: determines the outcomes that are available to So any decision

444
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 6: that you make is going to have a set of

445
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:48,719
Speaker 6: outcomes that are available to.

446
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,159
Speaker 4: Different things that could happen. You could if you're not

447
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 4: paying attention, for example, you could get in an accident.

448
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 4: But you could also not get in an accident. Both

449
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,719
Speaker 4: of those things are true. You could get in an

450
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:02,719
Speaker 4: accident that's varying degree of bad. Right, Someone could just

451
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:07,119
Speaker 4: like nick your car. Someone could t bone you. You

452
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 4: could end up with whiplash, you could end up in

453
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 4: the hospital, you could end up dead, right Like, there's

454
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 4: a whole variety of things that are associated with you're

455
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,399
Speaker 4: not paying attention in the car. Each of those things

456
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 4: is going to occur some of the time, but not

457
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 4: all of the time. What outcome you actually observe is

458
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 4: determined by luck. So let me sort of take it back, right,

459
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 4: If I flip a coin. When the coin leaves my hand,

460
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 4: there are two outcomes that could occur, heads or tails.

461
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 4: I have flipped the coin, right, So the fact that

462
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 4: I flipped a two sided fair coin has sort of

463
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 4: set those two outcomes in place. Heads or tails. We

464
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 4: happen to know that if it's a fair coin, heads

465
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:54,400
Speaker 4: is going to land fifty percent of the time, Tails

466
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,920
Speaker 4: is going to land fifty percent of the time. Which

467
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:01,399
Speaker 4: thing lands is determined by luck. When you leave having

468
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 4: won the lottery and you're so excited and you're distracted,

469
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 4: there's a whole bunch of different things that could occur.

470
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 4: Right in the same way, if you run a red light,

471
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 4: there's a bunch of things that could occur. The most

472
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 4: common thing that happens when you run a red light

473
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 4: is nothing right, like mostly not You're fine, right, But

474
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,119
Speaker 4: we know that if you run a red light as

475
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 4: opposed to a green light, that you're increasing the chances

476
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 4: that something very bad happens to you. But it's not

477
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 4: going to occur one hundred percent of the time. It's

478
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 4: going to occur some percent of the time, let's say

479
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 4: fifteen percent of the time. Something bad's going to happen

480
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 4: to you. When that fifteen percent happens, you don't control.

481
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 4: But what you did do was by running a red light,

482
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,480
Speaker 4: you made there be a fifteen percent chance something bad happens,

483
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 4: where if you go through a green light, it's less

484
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:51,399
Speaker 4: than one percent of the time. Something bad's going to

485
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 4: happen to you. So I think that the quibble that

486
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 4: we're having is about this idea of pure luck. Is

487
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 4: there anything that is to determined by pure luck? There

488
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 4: are few things that are determined by pure luck, but

489
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 4: not a ton that are going to occur in your life.

490
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 4: Mostly it's you make decisions. There are different futures that

491
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:18,199
Speaker 4: could occur because of the decisions that you've made, and

492
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 4: which future you actually observe is determined by luck.

493
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:28,120
Speaker 1: What if you're like me and you think that until

494
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 1: your life is over, you truly can't define what was lucky,

495
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 1: you're unlucky because of the different outcomes that can come

496
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:34,479
Speaker 1: from the luck or unluck.

497
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 4: So I think that that's so luck is used in

498
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 4: different ways, right, And so I actually agree with you

499
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 4: about that if we're using luck as something good or bad, right,

500
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 4: so we can think about what I'm talking about, is

501
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 4: luck is a neutral thing?

502
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 2: Right?

503
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 4: Like, twenty percent of the time I'm going to get

504
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 4: you know, I'm going to be distracted and nothing bad

505
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 4: is going to happen to me. Fifteen percent of the time,

506
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 4: maybe someone nicks me, like just nix my car, you know,

507
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,639
Speaker 4: you know, ten percent of the time I hit the

508
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 4: person in front of me and get whiplash. Right, Like,

509
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 4: we can think about what those are, and luck is

510
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 4: determining which of those things. You see, that's neither good

511
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 4: nor bad. That's just a force that acts upon us. Right.

512
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 4: What you're talking about is can we make a judgment

513
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 4: when we actually observe the outcome about whether it's a

514
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 4: good outcome or a bad outcome? That's a wholly different

515
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 4: I mean sorry, let me say that again. Can we

516
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 4: make a judgment at the time that the thing occurs

517
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 4: about whether it's good luck or bad luck?

518
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 5: Right?

519
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 4: Can we do that? And I think you're right. The

520
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 4: answer is I think we're pretty bad judges of that.

521
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 4: We have the instinct to do that. Right as soon

522
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 4: as something happens, we're like, ah, that was such good

523
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 4: luck or oh that was such bad luck. But I

524
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 4: think that we don't actually know until long after the fact.

525
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 4: Simple example, Right, we know about people who win the

526
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 4: lottery all the time, they're like dreaming of this. You know,

527
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 4: it's a rare thing that's going to happen. So it's

528
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 4: a rare thing and people think of it as a

529
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 4: good thing. And when you have a combination of something

530
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 4: that's rare and something that people sort of consider as

531
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 4: like universal good. Right, then when they win the lottery,

532
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 4: they think, oh, I got so lucky in a good sense, right,

533
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 4: I got good luck. But we know that a lot

534
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,360
Speaker 4: of people's lives get ruined when they win the lottery,

535
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 4: but they don't find that out until a lot later, right,

536
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 4: And then they maybe they look back and they go, oh,

537
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 4: I wish I'd never won the lottery because they realize

538
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 4: that that judgment they made about whether the luck was

539
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 4: good or bad, that they couldn't actually make that until

540
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 4: their life unfolded. So that's something that I think about

541
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:50,199
Speaker 4: a lot in my own life. So when I was

542
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 4: just out of college, I went to graduate school and

543
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,239
Speaker 4: I was getting my PhD, and I was there for

544
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 4: five years. I'd done all my PhD work. I was

545
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,360
Speaker 4: going out on the job mark it, and I've been

546
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 4: really struggling with a stomach issue that was like autoimmune related.

547
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 4: It didn't know that at the time, but I got

548
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 4: actually really sick and I ended up in the hospital

549
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 4: for two weeks. And when I got really sick was

550
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 4: right when I was supposed to be going out and

551
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 4: like doing my job interviews and getting my you know,

552
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 4: starting on my academic path to become a tenured professor.

553
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 4: Like that was what I thought my life was going

554
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 4: to be. So now I land in the hospital for

555
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,360
Speaker 4: a couple of weeks. I have a very long recuperation,

556
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:35,119
Speaker 4: lost you know, twenty five pounds because I couldn't keep

557
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 4: any food down, Like it was bad. And I thought

558
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 4: at the time, like, this is such bad luck, Like

559
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 4: this has really derailed my life. I'm experiencing very bad luck,

560
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 4: and I was very sad about it. Then you know,

561
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 4: now I have to take time off from graduate school

562
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 4: and I have to delay going out on the job market.

563
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 4: And during that time was when I started playing poker,

564
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 4: and poker was pretty good to me. And I would

565
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 4: actually argue that had I not done what I did

566
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 4: in poker, I wouldn't have the platform to talk about

567
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 4: this thing that I'm so passionate about, which is like,

568
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 4: how do we become better decision makers?

569
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 1: Right?

570
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 4: And this amazing conversation I'm having with you about luck,

571
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 4: which is so fun, And I wouldn't be able to

572
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 4: do that had I not gotten sick in the first place.

573
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 4: So I now look back at that and say, WHOA.

574
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 4: That was kind of a rush to judgment at the time, right,

575
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 4: I really thought that I was experiencing bad luck. But

576
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 4: it turns out that was actually kind of good luck

577
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 4: because where my life ended up, I think, you know,

578
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 4: on average, it ended up in a better place because

579
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 4: that thing happened to me. And so I think that

580
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 4: what you said is actually like incredibly insightful. Is that

581
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 4: we ought to be pretty neutral about luck like luck

582
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 4: is occurring. But that rush to judgment about is that

583
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 4: good luck or bad luck, I think is misguided. And

584
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 4: not only is it misguid and you know ought and

585
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 4: we wait to actually sort of take a look back

586
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 4: and make the judgment about whether it was good or bad,

587
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 4: as you said, But when we judge it so quickly,

588
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 4: I think that it can distort decisions that we're making

589
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 4: going forward, particularly on the bad luck side, right, because

590
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 4: when we experience that bad luck, we get emotional. It's

591
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 4: very difficult for it actually reduces the quality of our

592
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 4: decisions going forward if we really live in the idea

593
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 4: that the world has happened to us in a bad way. Right,

594
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 4: And I think being able to just take a step

595
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 4: back and say luck is luck like this it just is,

596
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 4: and that's okay. And my job is to kind of

597
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 4: lean into that and focus on the thing that you

598
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 4: rightly said, I do have control over, which is the

599
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 4: decisions I'm making, you know, and understand that luck is

600
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 4: just kind of part of the equation.

601
00:30:55,320 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think my marriage to the definition is different

602
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 1: than what you were describing. So I actually think mine

603
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 1: comes from very similar to what you said, is that

604
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 1: I grew up poverty kid, mom of a drug addict

605
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 1: who died. I didn't know my dad. I felt I

606
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 1: had a very unlucky life. I really felt like that

607
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 1: way for a long time, resented it even that I

608
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 1: had such an unlucky run. However, had I not had that,

609
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 1: I would not have built the skill set that I

610
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 1: have now to one have the life that I have

611
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 1: to be able to affect so many people in so

612
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 1: many different ways. Like without that, we'll say bad luck,

613
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 1: I wouldn't have had all the good fortune or good

614
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: luck that I've had now. So I think my relationship

615
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 1: with the definition is until it runs its course, it

616
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 1: really can't be defined. But that was not at all

617
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 1: what you were saying at the very beginning. We're just

618
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 1: talking about two different things.

619
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 4: We're talking about that you can divide it into two things, right,

620
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 4: luck as a force and then our view of whether

621
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 4: that luck is good or those are two really different things. Right.

622
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 4: So it's kind of like gravity, right, That's how I

623
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 4: think about luck. Gravity just is it exists, right, Like

624
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 4: you drop something off a building, it falls because of gravity.

625
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 4: It's why we don't go flying off the earth, right,

626
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 4: Like it holds us down. So it's just kind of

627
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 4: this force that exists that's sort of definitionally, how luck

628
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 4: sort of enters into the equation. How we cognitively put

629
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:35,719
Speaker 4: this good or bad label on luck is a totally

630
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 4: different thing. And I think that just as you're saying,

631
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 4: like that's something that we really can't do until you

632
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 4: have the passage of time. You know, one thing I

633
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 4: think about and it's kind of like in what you said,

634
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 4: which I think can get people to understand the influence

635
00:32:53,480 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 4: of luck is at the moment of our birth. There's

636
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 4: just it's just luck, right, Like who are we born to?

637
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 4: What country are we born to? What year are we

638
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 4: born in? Are we tall? Are we short? Are we fast?

639
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 4: Are we slow? Like? All of these things that literally

640
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 4: you have no control over, right, that just is you

641
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:24,200
Speaker 4: were born into the family work. Did you have any

642
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 4: control over that? No, of course not right. I was

643
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 4: born into the family I was. Did I have any

644
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 4: control over that?

645
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 1: No?

646
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 4: Right, And very similarly to you, like tough childhood, very

647
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:40,239
Speaker 4: deeply alcoholic mom, very rough household to grow up in.

648
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 4: But you know, I think I developed a lot of

649
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 4: resilience from that that served me well at the time.

650
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 4: I was sad, right, But I think that there were

651
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 4: a lot of things that again created like resilience, resilience

652
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 4: for me, like this sort of bounciness, this ability to

653
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 4: sort of be like it's okay, like I'm going to

654
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 4: move forward, that came from that. But think about if

655
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 4: I had been born in sixteen hundred, right, So when

656
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 4: we think about like I'm born in the late twentieth century,

657
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 4: I'm a woman, I'm born in the late twentieth century,

658
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 4: what are the outcomes that were available to me? Versus

659
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 4: if I were born as a woman in the sixteen hundreds, right,

660
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:26,799
Speaker 4: where I would have been property, I in fact just

661
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:31,400
Speaker 4: missed the generation where it was mostly like secretary wife

662
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 4: that was available, you know, that was mainly available to

663
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 4: you as outcomes, Right, So that moment that you're born

664
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,839
Speaker 4: actually sets into place what the distributions of outcomes are

665
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 4: that are available to And then here's the thing, you

666
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 4: get to make decisions that can affect where you land

667
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:53,799
Speaker 4: in that distribution, because you can think about somebody else

668
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 4: who's born into the circumstances you were, you know, doesn't

669
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 4: end up in the situation you are today. Some of

670
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:03,839
Speaker 4: that has to do with luck that happens along the way,

671
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 4: like right place, right time, Like who knows if you

672
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 4: have been born before podcasts right, like you know, who knows?

673
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:15,439
Speaker 4: Right Like, we don't know, But like you, you found opportunities,

674
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:17,239
Speaker 4: you made something of them. But there's other people that

675
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,879
Speaker 4: are born into those circumstances that don't get themselves out

676
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 4: of it. Some of them make pretty good decisions, some

677
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 4: of them don't. But the fact is that because of

678
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:31,319
Speaker 4: the circumstances that you were born into where you ended up,

679
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 4: it is actually a much lower probability outcome that someone

680
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 4: who's born into upper middle class, upper class, stable family

681
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:46,920
Speaker 4: goes to the best high school, goes to the best college,

682
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 4: you know, so on so forth, Right, Like, the outcomes

683
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 4: that are available to that person compared to you are

684
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 4: very different. Particularly in the probability that they're going to occur.

685
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 4: And that's because of this thing that literally at the

686
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 4: beginning of your life, have you had no control over that?

687
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:18,320
Speaker 5: Hank Ty, the Bobby Cast will be right back. Welcome

688
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:20,359
Speaker 5: back to the Bobby Cast.

689
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:26,399
Speaker 1: So no inherent value good or bad in luck?

690
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,919
Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, so it just is right.

691
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:36,200
Speaker 1: And I think where I would take that as if

692
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 1: what if you were born fifty years from now and

693
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:42,319
Speaker 1: women were the rulers of civilization, what was good luck

694
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 1: is now bad luck? So it's neither because they can

695
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 1: always be good or bad in comparison. So luck has

696
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 1: no value. It just exists.

697
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,919
Speaker 4: It's like gravity. It's gravity good, it is gravity bad.

698
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 4: I don't like it just is. It's just it's just

699
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 4: part of the equation, right, And I think that we

700
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 4: do better when we don't judge it as good or bad.

701
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:02,760
Speaker 4: I think we just do a lot better as decision

702
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 4: makers when we say it's there. I should take that

703
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:10,359
Speaker 4: into account, Like, as I'm thinking about the decisions, I

704
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 4: don't want to, you know, one of the things that

705
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 4: happens to us and one of the you know that

706
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 4: really degrades our decision quality, Like it makes us make

707
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:25,319
Speaker 4: worse decisions. Is that we actually discount how much luck

708
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 4: is in the equation. In other words, we think we

709
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:32,360
Speaker 4: have a lot more control over outcomes than we actually do.

710
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,880
Speaker 4: It's called the illusion of control as a matter of fact.

711
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 4: So I think that the more that we can basically

712
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:44,839
Speaker 4: approach life in this way, the decisions that I make,

713
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:48,399
Speaker 4: the quality of the decisions that I make, are going

714
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 4: to change my possibilities. They're going to change the things

715
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 4: that are possible for me in a couple of ways.

716
00:37:55,920 --> 00:38:00,799
Speaker 4: One is, it might create outcomes that wouldn't otherwise be possible. Right,

717
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 4: So that would be like winning the lottery versus not.

718
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,720
Speaker 4: If I don't play, that's not even a possible world,

719
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:12,400
Speaker 4: right So okay, So it changes the possibilities. But then

720
00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 4: it can also change the chances of those possibilities happening,

721
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:21,840
Speaker 4: the chances that I'm going to actually have that thing happen.

722
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 4: And I think that when you approach life that way,

723
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 4: it actually gives you a much greater sense of agency,

724
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 4: right that. Okay, Yeah, Like the world happens, and there's

725
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 4: a whole bunch of stuff that I can't control, but

726
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 4: there's this thing that I really can control, which is

727
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 4: if I make better decisions than on average, I'm going

728
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 4: to have better possibilities that are available to me, and

729
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:48,279
Speaker 4: those possibilities are going to be more likely than they

730
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 4: otherwise would have. And over time, that's just going to

731
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 4: increase the chances that I live a better life than

732
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 4: I otherwise would have. And I think that's actually like

733
00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:58,840
Speaker 4: a really hopeful message.

734
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so too. And I think you know,

735
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,840
Speaker 1: when we look at these two words luck and quit luck,

736
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 1: most people go good positive good positive, because that's you know,

737
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 1: maybe they're they're micro association with it. Quit negative negative negative. However,

738
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 1: you've challenged that as well, and so why did you

739
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 1: start researching quitting?

740
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 4: So I only write books where something has made me

741
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 4: very mad, And the reason is that writing a book

742
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 4: is torture. It's just like it's a lot, you know,

743
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 4: writing a book is like, first of all, it's hard,

744
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 4: you know, it's just it's a lot of work. And

745
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 4: for me, at least, you know, it's a lot of

746
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:49,439
Speaker 4: anxiety about like whether I'm being clear, whether people are

747
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:52,640
Speaker 4: going to get what I'm trying to say, whether the

748
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:55,920
Speaker 4: message that I'm writing about that it's so incredibly important

749
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 4: to me is something that other people are going to

750
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 4: care about that's hard. And then when the book, you know,

751
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 4: when the book actually goes out into the world, it's

752
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 4: like you have just literally opened yourself up to criticism, right,

753
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 4: and you know that being a public figure, right, Like,

754
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 4: you know, that's where it's like, Okay, now everybody sees

755
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:19,279
Speaker 4: my work. Right. So there's a lot of things that

756
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 4: are just like really hard about writing a book. So

757
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 4: I won't write a book unless there's something that's just

758
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 4: digging at me. And what was digging at me in

759
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 4: the case of quitting is that Angela Duckworth has written

760
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:40,359
Speaker 4: this wonderful book, wonderful book called Grit, and everybody loves it.

761
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 4: And as I was watching the discourse around Grit, what

762
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 4: I realized is that people were kind of, like, what

763
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:54,280
Speaker 4: I felt like, missing the point of what she was saying.

764
00:40:56,400 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 4: What she says in that book Grit is even if

765
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 4: things are hard, if they're worthwhile, it's a good quality

766
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:09,759
Speaker 4: to stick to them. Simple message, right, just because it's

767
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 4: hard doesn't mean that you should stop. Being Gritty means

768
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:17,799
Speaker 4: sticking to hard things when those things are worthwhile. How

769
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 4: would we define worthwhile? Well? Worthwhile might be different for

770
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 4: you than me because we have different goals. But let's

771
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:28,520
Speaker 4: broadly say worthwhile means that I am doing something that

772
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 4: is going to help me to advance toward my goals.

773
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:33,400
Speaker 4: It's going to help me achieve my goals in alignment

774
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:38,760
Speaker 4: with my values. That let's define worthwhile that way. Okay,

775
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,439
Speaker 4: So I think that's an amazing message, because I think

776
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 4: that's great and it's true. The problem is that as

777
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 4: I saw the discourse around grit, it was just sticking

778
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:54,680
Speaker 4: to things is good, full stop, period. That's a good

779
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:58,919
Speaker 4: quality to have, sticking to things. And I just looked

780
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:02,440
Speaker 4: at that and I said, well, that's completely absurd. And

781
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 4: the reason why it's completely absurd is because if something

782
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 4: isn't worthwhile, it's not a good thing to stick to it. Now,

783
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,880
Speaker 4: that wouldn't be a problem if our bias was to

784
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 4: stop doing things. If our bias was as soon as

785
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 4: something got hard, we were going to stop doing it. Then, Okay,

786
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 4: maybe it's not a big deal because we're actually quitting

787
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 4: too much, right, But it's not true for adults. For

788
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 4: a little kid, like for a six year old, it's true, right,

789
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 4: like you got to encourage a six year old to

790
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 4: stick to things, even when they have a bad day

791
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 4: on the soccer bitch, right, but someone twenty five years

792
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 4: or older. The science is really really clear that we

793
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 4: stick to things too much, actually, that we're naturally way

794
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 4: too gritty, and that we don't quit enough. And you

795
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,279
Speaker 4: can see that in the way that people talk about quitting, right,

796
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:55,399
Speaker 4: just as you just said, it's just negative, right, It's

797
00:42:55,480 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 4: like quitting, quitting is for losers, man, Like, if you

798
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 4: quit something, you failed. You know, quitters never win. Winners

799
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:11,359
Speaker 4: never quit, right like. And I you know, I just

800
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:14,239
Speaker 4: looked at that, and I was like, everybody thinks that

801
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 4: quitting is failing, that it's such a bad thing. But

802
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:20,799
Speaker 4: first of all, it's not failing if the thing you're

803
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 4: doing isn't worthwhile, because then you get to stop doing

804
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:27,319
Speaker 4: something that's not worthwhile and you get to go and

805
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:30,359
Speaker 4: do something else that is worthwhile, right Like, So that's

806
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 4: a double win. Right, So that's clearly true. So how

807
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:39,879
Speaker 4: could it possibly be a failure to quit something that's

808
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 4: not worthwhile? Right Like? That has to be a good thing,

809
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 4: But everybody thinks that's a bad thing. And I just

810
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 4: I just was like, I just got to rehabilitate this

811
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 4: world word because It's such an incredibly important skill when

812
00:43:57,239 --> 00:44:03,759
Speaker 4: you're living in a world where there's luck, because sometimes

813
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:07,799
Speaker 4: you make a great decision, the world doesn't go your way.

814
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 4: Should just stick to it, no, So like when you're

815
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 4: making decisions where their luck can influence the outcome, and

816
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:23,400
Speaker 4: you know, like you're not omniscient, right, you know so

817
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 4: little in comparison to all there is to be known

818
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 4: in the whole universe. That what that means is that

819
00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 4: when we start things kind of definitionally speaking, like after

820
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 4: we start them, we're going to learn new things, and

821
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 4: sometimes those new things are going to make us say, ah,

822
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 4: I wish I had known that when I made the

823
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 4: decision in the first place. I wish I knew then

824
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 4: what I know now, because I would have done something else.

825
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:54,440
Speaker 4: And under those circumstances, then you should do something else.

826
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:58,720
Speaker 4: You should quit, right, But we over index on grit

827
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:00,760
Speaker 4: and we don't quit because we think that we failed

828
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 4: if we do. So that's why I was just like

829
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 4: so passionate about this idea that people like, mostly you

830
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 4: should be quitting, you should actually be sticking to very

831
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:11,399
Speaker 4: few things, And I wanted people to start quitting more

832
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 4: and feeling better about it. And feeling like it was

833
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 4: a success to do that.

834
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:19,000
Speaker 1: I feel like talking with you and I think a

835
00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 1: couple of things that you've said have led me to

836
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 1: this that you feel like as long as you're playing

837
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 1: the odds, regardless of what happens, continue to play the odds.

838
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 1: Would that be an accurate assessment?

839
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I mean you have to take you

840
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 4: don't have to take some risk into account there. But

841
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:43,080
Speaker 4: let's set risk aside for a second. Life is let's

842
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:45,359
Speaker 4: you know, I'm a poker player. Life is a game.

843
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 4: Let's act like we're playing poker, where you're trying to

844
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 4: make decisions that, on average open up better possibilities for

845
00:45:57,200 --> 00:46:02,360
Speaker 4: you and make those better possibility is more likely to happen.

846
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 4: And if you keep doing that over and over again,

847
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:10,279
Speaker 4: what that means is that you're making decisions that have

848
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 4: a higher chance, this is where the odds come in,

849
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 4: have a higher chance of getting you to achieve the

850
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 4: things that you want to achieve, getting you to achieve

851
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 4: your goals, whatever those goals might be, right, it's going

852
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:26,879
Speaker 4: to help you do that. And the better decisions you make,

853
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:31,040
Speaker 4: the more likely that you'll achieve the things that you

854
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:34,960
Speaker 4: want to achieve. Compared to another version of you who

855
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:39,279
Speaker 4: made worse decisions. So that's all we're trying to do, right,

856
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:42,359
Speaker 4: So it is a game of odds, right, We're trying

857
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 4: to increase the likelihood that good things happen to us.

858
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:50,440
Speaker 4: That's a thing that we're trying to do, and we

859
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 4: do that through great decision making. So you just have

860
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 4: to keep saying, I just I just have to focus

861
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 4: on my decisions. I've got to make sure or that

862
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:03,399
Speaker 4: my decisions are really good, because that's the thing that's

863
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 4: going to make you have a better life.

864
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 1: So focus more on your decisions than the outcome, generally.

865
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:15,399
Speaker 4: Speaking, well, for sure, for sure, for sure. So there's

866
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:19,319
Speaker 4: a problem called resulting, which is we get very very

867
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:23,280
Speaker 4: outcome focused. And not only do we get really outcome focused,

868
00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:26,759
Speaker 4: but just sort of like the luck thing, we put

869
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:28,919
Speaker 4: a judgment on whether an outcome is good or bad,

870
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:31,160
Speaker 4: and then we decide whether a decision is good or

871
00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:33,560
Speaker 4: bad based on that, And that's actually really bad to do.

872
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 4: In a situation where we actually already know that a

873
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:40,360
Speaker 4: decision is good or bad, we can see this mistake

874
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 4: pretty easily. So, Bobby, if you go through a green

875
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:47,360
Speaker 4: light and you get in an accident. Are you like, damn,

876
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:49,280
Speaker 4: that decision to go through a green light was terrible.

877
00:47:49,320 --> 00:47:52,399
Speaker 4: I'm never going to do that again. I'm not right.

878
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 4: And if you go through a red light and you

879
00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:56,880
Speaker 4: happen to get through safely or you like, great decision,

880
00:47:56,920 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 4: I'm a great red light driver, I'm going to do that. No.

881
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 4: And the reason that you're not doing that in that

882
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 4: situation is because it's kind of settled, right, It's like,

883
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 4: we know green light good, red light bad, So we're

884
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:13,920
Speaker 4: not going to make this air. But like, in the

885
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 4: simplest sense, I know a lot of people and I'm

886
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 4: sure you do, where they're like obsessing over a menu

887
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 4: at a restaurant and they're trying to decide what to order. Remember, like,

888
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:27,880
Speaker 4: they haven't been at the restaurant before last time I

889
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:30,600
Speaker 4: checked their non omniscient and they don't have a DA machine,

890
00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:33,799
Speaker 4: so they can't travel forward in time and see what

891
00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 4: that dish is like before they order it. So this

892
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 4: is a good example where you're just trying to think,

893
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:42,160
Speaker 4: like what are the things I like and increase the

894
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 4: probability that you have a yummy meal. Right. So what

895
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 4: happens though, when you order the chicken and it's dry,

896
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:56,359
Speaker 4: and it's not very good, and maybe you don't even

897
00:48:56,400 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 4: finish it. Right, what's the first thing that everybody thinks, Ah,

898
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 4: I should have short ordered something else and made a mistake.

899
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:06,359
Speaker 4: That's a very good example of what we call resulting. Right, Well,

900
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:09,200
Speaker 4: how you should have ordered something else, Like, you've never

901
00:49:09,239 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 4: been in that restaurant, you haven't tasted that food before it,

902
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:14,200
Speaker 4: and you don't have a dime machine, so you were

903
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 4: making your best gass. It's not a mistake that you

904
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:19,600
Speaker 4: ordered the chicken. That was your best decision given the

905
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:21,839
Speaker 4: information that you had at the time. Right, it's kind

906
00:49:21,840 --> 00:49:23,640
Speaker 4: of hard for people to wrap their heads around it.

907
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:26,920
Speaker 5: Let's take a quick pause for a message from our sponsor,

908
00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:39,400
Speaker 5: and we're back on the Bobby cast.

909
00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 1: The last thing that I want to touch on, and

910
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:43,759
Speaker 1: I really appreciate the time I wrote in one of

911
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 1: my books the whole thing about it's better to make

912
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:48,719
Speaker 1: a decision and get it wrong than to make no

913
00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:50,719
Speaker 1: decision at all, because a lot of my friends get

914
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:53,799
Speaker 1: paralyzed by decision making because they don't want that. They

915
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 1: don't want to make the wrong decision because that will

916
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:59,359
Speaker 1: set them back, to which I would argue it's better

917
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:01,480
Speaker 1: to be set back quick and learn why you're being

918
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:04,920
Speaker 1: set back so you can set forward, then to always

919
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:07,120
Speaker 1: sit there and be paralyzed in the fear of making

920
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:09,600
Speaker 1: the wrong decision. So make the wrong decision better than

921
00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:11,880
Speaker 1: make no decision at all. Do you subscribe to that?

922
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:16,360
Speaker 4: Okay? Like so completely all right, So this is a

923
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 4: super fun topic. It actually relates to quitting. So let

924
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 4: me start at the basics, right, what's happening is that? Okay,

925
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:29,960
Speaker 4: So let's imagine that this friend of yours is in

926
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:33,520
Speaker 4: a job that they hate and they have to make

927
00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:35,400
Speaker 4: a decision like should they quit their job and go

928
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 4: to a new job? I bet this is probably a

929
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 4: conversation that you have a lot and they say, oh, like,

930
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:41,480
Speaker 4: I don't want to do that because what if I

931
00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:43,400
Speaker 4: take this new job and I hate that and what

932
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 4: if I make a mistake and what if it turns

933
00:50:45,000 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 4: out really badly? Does that sound familiar?

934
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 2: It does?

935
00:50:48,239 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, Okay, here's the deal. Staying in the job you're

936
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:57,320
Speaker 4: in is a decision. That's the thing that people miss.

937
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 4: So you described it as they'd rather make no decision

938
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:04,920
Speaker 4: at all, right, than a decision that might work out badly.

939
00:51:05,120 --> 00:51:09,040
Speaker 4: But making no decision at all doesn't exist, Like it's

940
00:51:09,080 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 4: grammatical as a sentence of English, but it doesn't make

941
00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 4: any sense because making quote unquote no decision at all

942
00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:20,719
Speaker 4: is allowing the status quote to continue whatever you're doing. Right, Like,

943
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 4: I'm in a relationship, I don't want to make a

944
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 4: decision about whether to leave it. Well, that's a decision.

945
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:27,880
Speaker 4: I'm choosing to stay in it. I'm in a job

946
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:30,399
Speaker 4: I hate it, but I don't want to quit because

947
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 4: what if I take a new job and I don't

948
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:35,440
Speaker 4: like that either? Okay, then I'm making a decision to

949
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:37,319
Speaker 4: stay in the job that I'm in. So let's just

950
00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:42,080
Speaker 4: start there. It's a decision either way, right, So like

951
00:51:42,120 --> 00:51:44,760
Speaker 4: if you can reframe it that way and say which

952
00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:47,920
Speaker 4: is better, right, like a choice to stay where you

953
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:53,360
Speaker 4: are or a choice, because they're both choices. That's number one. Now.

954
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 4: Part of the problem is that there's this phenomenon which

955
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:03,319
Speaker 4: is really interesting. It's called loss of version and it

956
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:07,000
Speaker 4: was identified by Daniel Kaneman and Amos Tversky and Daniel

957
00:52:07,040 --> 00:52:10,359
Speaker 4: Kahneman is a Nobel laureate. He wrote a very very

958
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:14,719
Speaker 4: famous book called Thinking Fast and Slow, very very very popular,

959
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 4: Super super Smart Guy Nobel Laureate in economics identified this

960
00:52:19,600 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 4: thing called loss of vision and loss of version is

961
00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:28,680
Speaker 4: basically the phenomenon that when we experience what we would

962
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:30,440
Speaker 4: what we would think of in the moment as a

963
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:32,359
Speaker 4: bad outcome. But I'm going to say in the moment,

964
00:52:32,400 --> 00:52:35,960
Speaker 4: because we've had this discussion, right, when we experience what

965
00:52:36,000 --> 00:52:37,759
Speaker 4: we think is a bad outcome, it feels a lot

966
00:52:37,800 --> 00:52:42,319
Speaker 4: worse to us than a sort of symmetrically good outcome. So,

967
00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:45,240
Speaker 4: like we think about this way, like if you lose

968
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:49,480
Speaker 4: fifty dollars in blackjack, it feels about as bad to

969
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:52,919
Speaker 4: you as winning one hundred dollars feels good. So there's

970
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 4: this like asymmetry. Losses feel really bad to us. So

971
00:52:57,040 --> 00:53:01,320
Speaker 4: when we're making decisions, we actually sort of over index

972
00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:04,640
Speaker 4: on the chances of a bad outcome, right, So we're

973
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:09,120
Speaker 4: not thinking the same way about good outcomes versus bad

974
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:12,399
Speaker 4: outcomes in the way that I'm talking about, right, Like, well,

975
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 4: on average, is it going to be good or bad?

976
00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:17,600
Speaker 4: And so maybe when you're thinking about the past, you're like, ah, wait,

977
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:20,040
Speaker 4: but what if it gets intercepted and that instead of

978
00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 4: thinking about overall, does this help me win? Right? Okay,

979
00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:26,359
Speaker 4: So that's loss of version. It turns out that this

980
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:32,280
Speaker 4: like cognitive phenomenon that you just identified, it's actually really

981
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:36,800
Speaker 4: really like deep. It's a it's like such a deep

982
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:39,440
Speaker 4: concept once you actually think about it. This idea of

983
00:53:39,640 --> 00:53:42,080
Speaker 4: I don't want to make a decision because what if

984
00:53:42,080 --> 00:53:47,279
Speaker 4: the decision I make is turns out badly. That when

985
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:51,600
Speaker 4: we stick with the status quo, we don't think about

986
00:53:51,600 --> 00:53:54,120
Speaker 4: it as a decision. So what that means is that

987
00:53:54,160 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 4: we're not loss of verse in the same way, we're

988
00:53:56,680 --> 00:54:00,120
Speaker 4: not as worried about bad things happening from the status quo.

989
00:54:01,160 --> 00:54:04,719
Speaker 4: We don't feel like it's our fault. So when I

990
00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:07,839
Speaker 4: stay in that job that stinks, or I stay in

991
00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:11,160
Speaker 4: that relationship that stinks, it doesn't feel as bad to me.

992
00:54:12,280 --> 00:54:15,240
Speaker 4: Then if I switched to something new and that stinks,

993
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 4: because I only worry about the bad outcome, the outcome

994
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:24,799
Speaker 4: I'm not going to like, I worry about it so

995
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:28,320
Speaker 4: much more on the switch. So what that does is

996
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:30,240
Speaker 4: it gets us to stick to things that are bad

997
00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 4: for us. And I remember, I had a conversation with

998
00:54:32,719 --> 00:54:35,560
Speaker 4: someone that I thought was so interesting. There's a woman

999
00:54:35,600 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 4: who was like stuck in a job that she really

1000
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:40,600
Speaker 4: hated and I really hate it. I mean for years,

1001
00:54:41,360 --> 00:54:44,960
Speaker 4: really hated it. And I was having a conversation with her.

1002
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:47,480
Speaker 4: She actually reached out to me because she had heard

1003
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:51,400
Speaker 4: me on a podcast talking about quitting and she wanted

1004
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:52,759
Speaker 4: to talk about it with me. And she said she

1005
00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:55,920
Speaker 4: had a new job offer and she just was like

1006
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 4: she didn't know whether she should take it or not.

1007
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 4: And so I said, well, well, you tell me about

1008
00:55:00,560 --> 00:55:02,680
Speaker 4: the job that you're in. And it was like, it's horrible.

1009
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:05,680
Speaker 4: I hate it. It's ruining my relationship with my children.

1010
00:55:06,120 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 4: I have to work twenty four to seven. My phone's

1011
00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:10,359
Speaker 4: always going off, like they're always like Mommy, why aren't

1012
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:13,640
Speaker 4: you paying attention to me? I'm totally miserable. Now you

1013
00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:16,480
Speaker 4: can imagine. At that point, I was like, hold on

1014
00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:19,800
Speaker 4: a second, like what's going on? Why aren't you quitting?

1015
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:23,920
Speaker 4: And she said to me the thing that your friends say,

1016
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:27,440
Speaker 4: what if I take the new job? And I hate that. Ah. Oh,

1017
00:55:27,520 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 4: it's this loss of version problem, right, So I said

1018
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:35,399
Speaker 4: to her, okay, again, thinking about playing the odds, I said,

1019
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:38,120
Speaker 4: all right, I want you to imagine that you stay

1020
00:55:38,120 --> 00:55:41,640
Speaker 4: in the job that you're in. It's a year from now.

1021
00:55:44,000 --> 00:55:48,080
Speaker 4: What are the chances you're happy, and very quickly she

1022
00:55:48,120 --> 00:55:52,040
Speaker 4: said zero percent. I said why. She goes, well, I've

1023
00:55:52,040 --> 00:55:54,000
Speaker 4: been happy for unhappy for a really long time. I

1024
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:57,240
Speaker 4: don't think at this point anything's going to change. I said, oh, okay,

1025
00:55:57,239 --> 00:55:59,879
Speaker 4: zero percent. So let's imagine you take the new job.

1026
00:56:00,280 --> 00:56:03,520
Speaker 4: I understand it might not work out, but it's a

1027
00:56:03,640 --> 00:56:06,000
Speaker 4: year from now. What do you think the chances are

1028
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:09,960
Speaker 4: that you're happy in that role? She said, well, I

1029
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:11,920
Speaker 4: don't know, like I'm not in it yet, but I

1030
00:56:11,960 --> 00:56:15,719
Speaker 4: would say fifty to fifty. And I literally just said

1031
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:21,600
Speaker 4: it's fifty percent greater than zero. And it was like

1032
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:26,240
Speaker 4: this moment, right, it was like she got it, released

1033
00:56:26,280 --> 00:56:29,360
Speaker 4: her from the clutches of this I don't want to

1034
00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 4: make a decision what if that new thing doesn't work out?

1035
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,480
Speaker 4: Because she it was just like this total it was

1036
00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:38,200
Speaker 4: like a revelation and she quit. The next day she

1037
00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:44,319
Speaker 4: was like, oh, oh, I get it right. So I

1038
00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:47,799
Speaker 4: think that this is like really important conceptually to understand,

1039
00:56:47,840 --> 00:56:51,000
Speaker 4: like there is no such thing as not making a decision,

1040
00:56:52,400 --> 00:56:57,520
Speaker 4: because you're making a decision to stick with the thing

1041
00:56:57,640 --> 00:57:01,680
Speaker 4: that's already happening. So once you recognize that, I think

1042
00:57:01,680 --> 00:57:04,480
Speaker 4: you can start thinking about it differently separately, And I

1043
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:07,919
Speaker 4: would recommend this for your friends. A lot of times

1044
00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:09,640
Speaker 4: when we go to make a decision, we kind of

1045
00:57:09,680 --> 00:57:12,440
Speaker 4: make it the biggest version of the decision. And we

1046
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:16,240
Speaker 4: do that in two ways. One is we're like, we

1047
00:57:16,320 --> 00:57:17,760
Speaker 4: just we're moved to a new city, and we just

1048
00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:21,200
Speaker 4: thought we're going to buy a house instead of rent. Right, Like,

1049
00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:24,360
Speaker 4: buying a house is a lot more consequential than renting.

1050
00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:29,360
Speaker 4: So that makes like the bad outcome kind of bigger,

1051
00:57:29,840 --> 00:57:33,200
Speaker 4: like the possible bad outcome kind of bigger, because we

1052
00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:35,800
Speaker 4: sort of committed to something much bigger. Right That's one thing.

1053
00:57:36,440 --> 00:57:38,720
Speaker 4: The other thing is we imagine when we go into

1054
00:57:38,720 --> 00:57:41,880
Speaker 4: the decision that we can't stop it, right, Like we

1055
00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:44,160
Speaker 4: think about that is I'm going to choose this thing,

1056
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:46,360
Speaker 4: and I'm good, I have to just do this for

1057
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:50,160
Speaker 4: the rest of my life, which also really increases the stakes.

1058
00:57:50,960 --> 00:57:53,120
Speaker 4: So what I always recommend, and this was your point,

1059
00:57:53,160 --> 00:57:57,480
Speaker 4: like do something small and find out fast, is do

1060
00:57:57,720 --> 00:58:01,360
Speaker 4: things that lower the impact of getting a bad outcome

1061
00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 4: and that you can stop doing really easily. So if

1062
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:06,160
Speaker 4: I rent, it's a lot easier for me to get

1063
00:58:06,160 --> 00:58:08,160
Speaker 4: out of a rental than if I buy a house.

1064
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:12,000
Speaker 4: Dating is way easier for me to get out of

1065
00:58:12,120 --> 00:58:15,680
Speaker 4: than marrying. Right, So you can think about, like, let

1066
00:58:15,720 --> 00:58:18,840
Speaker 4: me do some small things that can help me to

1067
00:58:18,880 --> 00:58:23,560
Speaker 4: get information and increase my confidence about the bigger thing

1068
00:58:23,640 --> 00:58:26,720
Speaker 4: that I might end up doing. So instead of thinking

1069
00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:30,760
Speaker 4: about the big thing, do small things really fast and

1070
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:33,040
Speaker 4: figure out like do they work? Do they not work?

1071
00:58:33,120 --> 00:58:35,439
Speaker 4: Like does it feel good to me? Does it feel

1072
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Speaker 4: like this is making me happy? Am I getting good

1073
00:58:38,240 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 4: outcomes or bad outcomes from it? And like rep that, Like,

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00:58:41,320 --> 00:58:43,440
Speaker 4: do try to be more of a dater in your

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00:58:43,480 --> 00:58:48,760
Speaker 4: life because that releases you from that fear of making decisions.

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Speaker 1: The book we reference was Quit the Power of Knowing

1077
00:58:51,840 --> 00:58:54,160
Speaker 1: when to walk away. And you have a substack that

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00:58:54,160 --> 00:58:55,600
Speaker 1: I want to send everybody to. You can go to

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Speaker 1: Annie's website Antie Duke dot com and subscribe to a substack.

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00:58:59,520 --> 00:59:02,320
Speaker 1: This is so fun for me. I hope this wasn't

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00:59:02,320 --> 00:59:03,080
Speaker 1: a waste of your time.

1082
00:59:03,160 --> 00:59:03,920
Speaker 2: I really appreciate it.

1083
00:59:03,880 --> 00:59:04,760
Speaker 4: You no, not at all.

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00:59:05,040 --> 00:59:08,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really appreciate the time. And yeah, I love

1085
00:59:08,440 --> 00:59:12,240
Speaker 1: to see you when you're speaking. I'm really uh, you know,

1086
00:59:12,280 --> 00:59:13,880
Speaker 1: I subscribe to a lot of the things that you

1087
00:59:13,880 --> 00:59:15,800
Speaker 1: say and you're write about, So thank you for the time. Annie.

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00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:20,120
Speaker 4: Well, I appreciate that you're you're a very good intuitive psychologist,

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00:59:21,200 --> 00:59:23,080
Speaker 4: That's what I would say, because like you you you

1090
00:59:23,120 --> 00:59:26,960
Speaker 4: actually you actually think a lot of the things that

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00:59:26,960 --> 00:59:30,360
Speaker 4: that I already write about, and I think that that's

1092
00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:32,520
Speaker 4: it's amazing. Like the way that you were putting those

1093
00:59:32,560 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 4: in this kind of intuitive way. It was so helpful

1094
00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 4: and so fun for me in terms of the conversation.

1095
00:59:38,440 --> 00:59:41,080
Speaker 4: So I just really want to say I appreciated that

1096
00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:43,959
Speaker 4: so much about you and the conversation was super fun

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00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:46,240
Speaker 4: for me. Thanks, thank you so much for having me.

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00:59:46,400 --> 00:59:48,439
Speaker 1: Or thanks doctor Duke. I should say thank you doctor Duke,

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00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:51,400
Speaker 1: and hopefully I'll see you sometime soon. Thank you very much.

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Speaker 5: This has been a Bobby Cast production.