WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: David Rosenberg & Stephanie Roth

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea on a Monday, What are you trying

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<v Speaker 2>to accomplish here? Everyone's listening to twenty minute podcasts, including

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<v Speaker 2>David Gura in The Big Take, and that's the way

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<v Speaker 2>the industry's gone. What we're trying to do is slip

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<v Speaker 2>in a shorter conversation six seven minutes and generally two

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<v Speaker 2>insights from our many guests. And in any given day

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<v Speaker 2>we can pick three, four or five six insights. But

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<v Speaker 2>I really decided to keep the podcast short. We hope

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<v Speaker 2>it fits into your daily podcast schedule. And thank you

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<v Speaker 2>to Apple for driving the podcast industry forward and Apple

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<v Speaker 2>Podcast as well. The single best idea today could have

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<v Speaker 2>been any number of voices. We start strawing with a

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<v Speaker 2>gentleman who is pretty much congenerally said, disinflations in order,

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<v Speaker 2>and of course David Rosenberg gets all fired up up

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<v Speaker 2>in Toronto when disinflation is in order, he would suggests

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<v Speaker 2>the FED is behind David Rosenberg on what the FED

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<v Speaker 2>will do next.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think that they have to wait wait wait.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that the FED is still somewhat shamed for

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<v Speaker 3>having missed nine percent inflation in the summer of twenty

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<v Speaker 3>twenty two and leaning so hard on transitory. Although eighteen

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<v Speaker 3>months in real time doesn't sound transitory, but in the

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<v Speaker 3>overall annals of economic history, eighteen months is still pretty transitory.

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<v Speaker 3>But they still seem to be fighting for their credibility,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, when they talk about that they need more confidence,

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<v Speaker 3>just saying that they need more months or many more

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<v Speaker 3>months of the disinflation trend that really dominated most of

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<v Speaker 3>last year. So I think that part of it is

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<v Speaker 3>that basically the horrible memory of what happened in twenty

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<v Speaker 3>twenty one twenty twenty two and blowing the call. And

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<v Speaker 3>that's one of the reasons I think that they're going

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<v Speaker 3>to be deliberately slow to start cutting interest rates, but

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<v Speaker 3>I think when they do, they're going to be pretty significant.

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<v Speaker 2>David Rosenberg there and just literally, as we're always in

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<v Speaker 2>the interviews, when Paul's leading the conversation, I'm out looking

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<v Speaker 2>at all the zeitgeist and that, And literally as Rosenberg

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<v Speaker 2>was on, there was Paul Krugman, the laureate, writing of

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<v Speaker 2>course for the New York Times, and Professor Krugman out

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<v Speaker 2>on Twitter saying, look, x shelter core inflation is one

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<v Speaker 2>point nine percent, So this gives you some idea of

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<v Speaker 2>the trend. Jason Furman up at Harvard would put the

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<v Speaker 2>ecumenical set of x number of inflation series at a

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<v Speaker 2>higher level than the drama of one point nine percent.

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<v Speaker 2>But certainly the inflation report that we saw continues to resound. Tomorrow,

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<v Speaker 2>we'll have a retail sales which is a nominal number.

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<v Speaker 2>That'll be interesting to see if that comes in light.

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<v Speaker 2>Is a nominal number again that could be market moving

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<v Speaker 2>showing lower prices in retail. Again, any number of good guests.

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<v Speaker 2>It was just wonderful to have Vanila Richardson in with

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<v Speaker 2>ADP with automatic data processing, talking brilliantly on our paychecks

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<v Speaker 2>and the calculations of adpcs with their almost monopoly, i'll say,

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<v Speaker 2>on the market. Before her, Stephanie Roth was with this,

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<v Speaker 2>Stephanie Roth of Wolf Research, and Stephanie is magnificently math

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<v Speaker 2>driven and statistics driven, data driven. Here's Stephanie Roth on

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<v Speaker 2>the data the reality of America's immigration.

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<v Speaker 4>So when you think about the steady state of payrolls growth,

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<v Speaker 4>forgetting about immigration, we're talking somewhere there's domestic growth of

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<v Speaker 4>eighty five to one hundred thousand. That's without sort of

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<v Speaker 4>strong immigration trends. Immigration trends roughly double that, double, roughly

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<v Speaker 4>double that. So, for example, the Biden administration humanitarian parole programs,

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<v Speaker 4>which is bringing in people from Mexico and then Cuba

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<v Speaker 4>hating nik Grogua Venezuela, bringing in seventy five thousand people

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<v Speaker 4>per month and they're able to get a work visa

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<v Speaker 4>within thirty days.

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<v Speaker 2>Stephanie were out there and she went on was a

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<v Speaker 2>really fabulous conversation about something everybody in economics is working

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<v Speaker 2>on right now is a mystery of immigration. It's been

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<v Speaker 2>with us for so much of two hundred plus years,

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<v Speaker 2>but the new immigration and what it means in course

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<v Speaker 2>a huge part of the political election. I do want

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<v Speaker 2>to know David Gera driving on our coverage of the

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<v Speaker 2>debates coming up. That'll be really interesting to see the

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<v Speaker 2>CNN debate. We'll have David in to give us perspective

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<v Speaker 2>as there Greg Giau of Bloomberg Government in today as well.

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<v Speaker 2>It is the beginning of an eventful week any number

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<v Speaker 2>of themes. But I do want to mention we are

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<v Speaker 2>at surveillance watching the geopolitics of the United Kingdom in

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<v Speaker 2>France talk about a special relationship both of them. With

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<v Speaker 2>massive elections to come up, think coming up. I should

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<v Speaker 2>say say thank you to Audrey child Freeman of Bloomberg Intelligence,

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<v Speaker 2>writing on foreign exchange, who was just fabulous today on

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<v Speaker 2>some of the tensions that they see in Paris. We're

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