Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea on a Monday, What are you trying
Speaker 2: to accomplish here? Everyone's listening to twenty minute podcasts, including
Speaker 2: David Gura in The Big Take, and that's the way
Speaker 2: the industry's gone. What we're trying to do is slip
Speaker 2: in a shorter conversation six seven minutes and generally two
Speaker 2: insights from our many guests. And in any given day
Speaker 2: we can pick three, four or five six insights. But
Speaker 2: I really decided to keep the podcast short. We hope
Speaker 2: it fits into your daily podcast schedule. And thank you
Speaker 2: to Apple for driving the podcast industry forward and Apple
Speaker 2: Podcast as well. The single best idea today could have
Speaker 2: been any number of voices. We start strawing with a
Speaker 2: gentleman who is pretty much congenerally said, disinflations in order,
Speaker 2: and of course David Rosenberg gets all fired up up
Speaker 2: in Toronto when disinflation is in order, he would suggests
Speaker 2: the FED is behind David Rosenberg on what the FED
Speaker 2: will do next.
Speaker 3: I don't think that they have to wait wait wait.
Speaker 3: I think that the FED is still somewhat shamed for
Speaker 3: having missed nine percent inflation in the summer of twenty
Speaker 3: twenty two and leaning so hard on transitory. Although eighteen
Speaker 3: months in real time doesn't sound transitory, but in the
Speaker 3: overall annals of economic history, eighteen months is still pretty transitory.
Speaker 3: But they still seem to be fighting for their credibility,
Speaker 3: you know, when they talk about that they need more confidence,
Speaker 3: just saying that they need more months or many more
Speaker 3: months of the disinflation trend that really dominated most of
Speaker 3: last year. So I think that part of it is
Speaker 3: that basically the horrible memory of what happened in twenty
Speaker 3: twenty one twenty twenty two and blowing the call. And
Speaker 3: that's one of the reasons I think that they're going
Speaker 3: to be deliberately slow to start cutting interest rates, but
Speaker 3: I think when they do, they're going to be pretty significant.
Speaker 2: David Rosenberg there and just literally, as we're always in
Speaker 2: the interviews, when Paul's leading the conversation, I'm out looking
Speaker 2: at all the zeitgeist and that, And literally as Rosenberg
Speaker 2: was on, there was Paul Krugman, the laureate, writing of
Speaker 2: course for the New York Times, and Professor Krugman out
Speaker 2: on Twitter saying, look, x shelter core inflation is one
Speaker 2: point nine percent, So this gives you some idea of
Speaker 2: the trend. Jason Furman up at Harvard would put the
Speaker 2: ecumenical set of x number of inflation series at a
Speaker 2: higher level than the drama of one point nine percent.
Speaker 2: But certainly the inflation report that we saw continues to resound. Tomorrow,
Speaker 2: we'll have a retail sales which is a nominal number.
Speaker 2: That'll be interesting to see if that comes in light.
Speaker 2: Is a nominal number again that could be market moving
Speaker 2: showing lower prices in retail. Again, any number of good guests.
Speaker 2: It was just wonderful to have Vanila Richardson in with
Speaker 2: ADP with automatic data processing, talking brilliantly on our paychecks
Speaker 2: and the calculations of adpcs with their almost monopoly, i'll say,
Speaker 2: on the market. Before her, Stephanie Roth was with this,
Speaker 2: Stephanie Roth of Wolf Research, and Stephanie is magnificently math
Speaker 2: driven and statistics driven, data driven. Here's Stephanie Roth on
Speaker 2: the data the reality of America's immigration.
Speaker 4: So when you think about the steady state of payrolls growth,
Speaker 4: forgetting about immigration, we're talking somewhere there's domestic growth of
Speaker 4: eighty five to one hundred thousand. That's without sort of
Speaker 4: strong immigration trends. Immigration trends roughly double that, double, roughly
Speaker 4: double that. So, for example, the Biden administration humanitarian parole programs,
Speaker 4: which is bringing in people from Mexico and then Cuba
Speaker 4: hating nik Grogua Venezuela, bringing in seventy five thousand people
Speaker 4: per month and they're able to get a work visa
Speaker 4: within thirty days.
Speaker 2: Stephanie were out there and she went on was a
Speaker 2: really fabulous conversation about something everybody in economics is working
Speaker 2: on right now is a mystery of immigration. It's been
Speaker 2: with us for so much of two hundred plus years,
Speaker 2: but the new immigration and what it means in course
Speaker 2: a huge part of the political election. I do want
Speaker 2: to know David Gera driving on our coverage of the
Speaker 2: debates coming up. That'll be really interesting to see the
Speaker 2: CNN debate. We'll have David in to give us perspective
Speaker 2: as there Greg Giau of Bloomberg Government in today as well.
Speaker 2: It is the beginning of an eventful week any number
Speaker 2: of themes. But I do want to mention we are
Speaker 2: at surveillance watching the geopolitics of the United Kingdom in
Speaker 2: France talk about a special relationship both of them. With
Speaker 2: massive elections to come up, think coming up. I should
Speaker 2: say say thank you to Audrey child Freeman of Bloomberg Intelligence,
Speaker 2: writing on foreign exchange, who was just fabulous today on
Speaker 2: some of the tensions that they see in Paris. We're
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