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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Single best idea on a Monday, What are you trying

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Speaker 2: to accomplish here? Everyone's listening to twenty minute podcasts, including

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Speaker 2: David Gura in The Big Take, and that's the way

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Speaker 2: the industry's gone. What we're trying to do is slip

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Speaker 2: in a shorter conversation six seven minutes and generally two

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Speaker 2: insights from our many guests. And in any given day

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Speaker 2: we can pick three, four or five six insights. But

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Speaker 2: I really decided to keep the podcast short. We hope

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Speaker 2: it fits into your daily podcast schedule. And thank you

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Speaker 2: to Apple for driving the podcast industry forward and Apple

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Speaker 2: Podcast as well. The single best idea today could have

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Speaker 2: been any number of voices. We start strawing with a

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Speaker 2: gentleman who is pretty much congenerally said, disinflations in order,

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Speaker 2: and of course David Rosenberg gets all fired up up

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Speaker 2: in Toronto when disinflation is in order, he would suggests

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Speaker 2: the FED is behind David Rosenberg on what the FED

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Speaker 2: will do next.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that they have to wait wait wait.

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Speaker 3: I think that the FED is still somewhat shamed for

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Speaker 3: having missed nine percent inflation in the summer of twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty two and leaning so hard on transitory. Although eighteen

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Speaker 3: months in real time doesn't sound transitory, but in the

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Speaker 3: overall annals of economic history, eighteen months is still pretty transitory.

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Speaker 3: But they still seem to be fighting for their credibility,

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Speaker 3: you know, when they talk about that they need more confidence,

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Speaker 3: just saying that they need more months or many more

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Speaker 3: months of the disinflation trend that really dominated most of

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Speaker 3: last year. So I think that part of it is

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Speaker 3: that basically the horrible memory of what happened in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty one twenty twenty two and blowing the call. And

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Speaker 3: that's one of the reasons I think that they're going

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Speaker 3: to be deliberately slow to start cutting interest rates, but

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Speaker 3: I think when they do, they're going to be pretty significant.

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Speaker 2: David Rosenberg there and just literally, as we're always in

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Speaker 2: the interviews, when Paul's leading the conversation, I'm out looking

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Speaker 2: at all the zeitgeist and that, And literally as Rosenberg

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Speaker 2: was on, there was Paul Krugman, the laureate, writing of

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Speaker 2: course for the New York Times, and Professor Krugman out

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Speaker 2: on Twitter saying, look, x shelter core inflation is one

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Speaker 2: point nine percent, So this gives you some idea of

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Speaker 2: the trend. Jason Furman up at Harvard would put the

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Speaker 2: ecumenical set of x number of inflation series at a

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Speaker 2: higher level than the drama of one point nine percent.

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Speaker 2: But certainly the inflation report that we saw continues to resound. Tomorrow,

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Speaker 2: we'll have a retail sales which is a nominal number.

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Speaker 2: That'll be interesting to see if that comes in light.

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Speaker 2: Is a nominal number again that could be market moving

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Speaker 2: showing lower prices in retail. Again, any number of good guests.

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Speaker 2: It was just wonderful to have Vanila Richardson in with

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Speaker 2: ADP with automatic data processing, talking brilliantly on our paychecks

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Speaker 2: and the calculations of adpcs with their almost monopoly, i'll say,

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Speaker 2: on the market. Before her, Stephanie Roth was with this,

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Speaker 2: Stephanie Roth of Wolf Research, and Stephanie is magnificently math

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Speaker 2: driven and statistics driven, data driven. Here's Stephanie Roth on

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Speaker 2: the data the reality of America's immigration.

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Speaker 4: So when you think about the steady state of payrolls growth,

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Speaker 4: forgetting about immigration, we're talking somewhere there's domestic growth of

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Speaker 4: eighty five to one hundred thousand. That's without sort of

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Speaker 4: strong immigration trends. Immigration trends roughly double that, double, roughly

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Speaker 4: double that. So, for example, the Biden administration humanitarian parole programs,

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Speaker 4: which is bringing in people from Mexico and then Cuba

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Speaker 4: hating nik Grogua Venezuela, bringing in seventy five thousand people

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Speaker 4: per month and they're able to get a work visa

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Speaker 4: within thirty days.

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Speaker 2: Stephanie were out there and she went on was a

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Speaker 2: really fabulous conversation about something everybody in economics is working

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Speaker 2: on right now is a mystery of immigration. It's been

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Speaker 2: with us for so much of two hundred plus years,

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Speaker 2: but the new immigration and what it means in course

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Speaker 2: a huge part of the political election. I do want

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Speaker 2: to know David Gera driving on our coverage of the

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Speaker 2: debates coming up. That'll be really interesting to see the

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Speaker 2: CNN debate. We'll have David in to give us perspective

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Speaker 2: as there Greg Giau of Bloomberg Government in today as well.

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Speaker 2: It is the beginning of an eventful week any number

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Speaker 2: of themes. But I do want to mention we are

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Speaker 2: at surveillance watching the geopolitics of the United Kingdom in

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Speaker 2: France talk about a special relationship both of them. With

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Speaker 2: massive elections to come up, think coming up. I should

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Speaker 2: say say thank you to Audrey child Freeman of Bloomberg Intelligence,

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Speaker 2: writing on foreign exchange, who was just fabulous today on

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Speaker 2: some of the tensions that they see in Paris. We're

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Speaker 2: Maybe a special shout out here at Bloomberg eleven to

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