Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea, A
Speaker 1: more than eventful Tuesday, the geopolitics folding over to geoeconomics,
Speaker 1: folding over to oh, it's the first day of the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter of this year. Where did September go? Where
Speaker 1: did sell in May? And go away go? We did
Speaker 1: some equity coverage, but I have to admit the focus
Speaker 1: is on newsflow and focuses on a bigger, broader picture.
Speaker 1: We'll try to get a little more granular. Here is
Speaker 1: to go to the jobs report this Friday, and of
Speaker 1: course labor is suddenly what the FED is looking at.
Speaker 1: I guess they're looking at inflation. We talked to Matt
Speaker 1: Lazetti about the movable feast. Matt Lizetti's the Deutsche Bank.
Speaker 1: Here he is on the Fed.
Speaker 2: I think the first seventy five to one hundred basis
Speaker 2: points light likely one hundred basis points is straightforward. Our
Speaker 2: view is that the neutral range and nominal terms is
Speaker 2: three and a half percent, So getting down close to
Speaker 2: four percent, I think is a straightforward okay from their perspective,
Speaker 2: So another twenty five each meeting, twenty five each meeting.
Speaker 2: I think the potentially if you get a softter job support,
Speaker 2: they would have to go fifty again, or they may
Speaker 2: choose to. But at the same time, I think once
Speaker 2: they get one hundred basis points, and if the economy
Speaker 2: continues to look strong and the labor market stabilizes, it
Speaker 2: becomes a greater question at that point.
Speaker 1: Matt lazeti and we really thank him for his New
Speaker 1: York Mets analysis. For those of you worldwide, this is
Speaker 1: the best time of year for this American distraction called baseball.
Speaker 1: The World Series. And when I was a kid, like
Speaker 1: only two teams made it the National League, American League,
Speaker 1: and they played four out of seven, the best of seven,
Speaker 1: and the season ended like October fifth or October tenth, whatever.
Speaker 1: Now we've turned it into an extravaganza, and the beginning
Speaker 1: of the extravaganza is the Wild Card Derby, which is
Speaker 1: the best two out of three, and the game totally changes.
Speaker 1: So I'm sorry today, I'm Bloomberg Surveillance. Michael Barr was
Speaker 1: not focused, Matt Lazetti was not focused at Deutsche Bank,
Speaker 1: and we'll go on from there. Had a wonderful visit
Speaker 1: today with David Salem of Hedge Eye. Many people upset
Speaker 1: at the length of the interview, we had to look
Speaker 1: at the port strike of course East Coast and Gulf
Speaker 1: Coast as well. And we'll get mister Salem in again
Speaker 1: for an extended two blocks. I really, I promise that
Speaker 1: try to get him in as soon as we can.
Speaker 1: David Salem is venerable to say the least, and I
Speaker 1: know he really speaks his mind. David Salem on the
Speaker 1: illiquidity of private equity and private credit.
Speaker 3: The single sentence response to what you just said is
Speaker 3: that almost every effort in the history of capitalism to
Speaker 3: transmute illiquid assets into liquid ones ends and tears up
Speaker 3: right there. So the business model, and it is a
Speaker 3: business and a revenue model that private equity, private realty,
Speaker 3: private infrastructure, and other managers their household names today have
Speaker 3: set a top. Otherwise truly sound enterprises is flawed. And
Speaker 3: it raises a really important question as we seek to
Speaker 3: democratize access to some of these private forms of investing,
Speaker 3: are we actually doing folks a favor. They're clearly much
Speaker 3: higher forms, sorry, much higher cost forms of investing. So
Speaker 3: I have serious concerns about that. I just alluded to it.
Speaker 3: The bottom line is people have taken a very sound
Speaker 3: model that was idiosyncratic and entailed a great degree of
Speaker 3: discomfort when it was first designed by David Swinson, and
Speaker 3: they've taken it way too far. And Wall Street, you
Speaker 3: know this. Wall Street tends to do that with just
Speaker 3: about everything in encounter.
Speaker 1: David Swinson there of Yale University. David Salem speaking of
Speaker 1: being a young buck and running into David Swinson, I
Speaker 1: think at thirty one years old, is he hadn't reinvented
Speaker 1: endowment investment. To translate what you just heard, if you
Speaker 1: buy a share of Apple, you're pretty confident you can
Speaker 1: get out of that puppy at a gain or a loss.
Speaker 1: And the liquidity is pretty quite simple. And the bid
Speaker 1: and ask good or even great, Good morning, Arthur Levitt
Speaker 1: for all you did for liquidity. If you have a
Speaker 1: bar gold or a gold kugarand or whatever, you can
Speaker 1: probably sell it. It's liquid, I guess, at the right price.
Speaker 1: But what about alternative investments, the idea of getting out
Speaker 1: of venture capital, getting out of private equity, getting out
Speaker 1: of private credit, and that is a point of debate.
Speaker 1: We'll continue to cover this well into twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: David Salem of Hedge II there we're on on YouTube.
Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. I don't have the September numbers yet,
Speaker 1: but they told me they're phenomenal. Thank you so much
Speaker 1: for our entire time. The team is we all learn
Speaker 1: about YouTube in our homes, in our offices. The ease
Speaker 1: of doing this at Bloomberg Podcasts on YouTube on your
Speaker 1: commute under new technology, Apple CarPlay, Android Auto seeing, Apple
Speaker 1: CarPlay morn again. It's international as well. Serious XM. Good
Speaker 1: Morning on the Corridor ninety two nine FM and Boston
Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleventh REEO in New York down to Washington ninety
Speaker 1: ninety one FM. A special shout out today to Dan
Speaker 1: Williams of our Tel Aviv news bureau coming to us
Speaker 1: from the border of Lebanon. That as we heard very
Speaker 1: difficult news that moved markets about the ten am hour
Speaker 1: on YouTube podcasts on Apple podcasts. This is single best idea.