WEBVTT - Will we reach peak oil? 0:00:01.120 --> 0:00:04.280 Welcome to you Stuff you should Know from House Stuff 0:00:04.280 --> 0:00:14.640 Works dot com. Hey, and welcome to the podcast. I'm 0:00:14.720 --> 0:00:18.239 Josh Clark, There's Charles W. Chuck Bryant, and this is 0:00:18.280 --> 0:00:21.320 stuff you should know the podcast. And it's election day. 0:00:22.520 --> 0:00:25.680 We didn't mention that before. Oh yeah, you know, it's 0:00:25.720 --> 0:00:28.000 election day. I'm not sure when this is gonna come out. 0:00:28.520 --> 0:00:30.640 I can tell you exactly it's gonna come out. How 0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:32.800 do we know about this one? Well, it'll come out 0:00:32.840 --> 0:00:39.160 either the twenties, seventh or twenty nine of November. Yeah, great, 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:42.400 what a great time to talk about pek oil. Yeah, 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:48.920 the holiday season. Everybody's still digesting Thanksgiving dinner. Um, it's 0:00:48.960 --> 0:00:52.199 a little chilly out. It's what's every It's what everyone's 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:56.720 thinking about right now when football and sports and stuff 0:00:56.760 --> 0:00:59.560 like that in fall colors. Let's talk about oil instead. 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:07.840 When will the world's oil production be outstripped by demand irrevocably? 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:10.800 That's right, that's what peak oil is. That's what we're 0:01:10.840 --> 0:01:12.800 talking about. Before we get started, I need to just 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:16.920 clear something up. Peak oil is a definite thing. So 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:21.480 where's the controversy when it's gonna happen, When it's gonna happen, 0:01:21.920 --> 0:01:25.240 and exactly what will happen after it? Help because reading 0:01:25.240 --> 0:01:27.000 this I was a little confused. It seemed like some 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:28.840 people were like denying that it was going to happen 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:31.800 at all or something. Yeah, we got run out of 0:01:31.840 --> 0:01:34.119 oil at some point. So if you talk to any 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:36.920 peak oil adherent there's there's definitely some that are a 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:42.200 little more the sky is following them, and I think 0:01:42.200 --> 0:01:45.679 they probably represent the minority, especially now. But if you 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:51.559 went back to two when I wrote this, remember Matt Baker, Yes, 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:54.000 Matt Baker, he used to work here. He was a developer. 0:01:54.680 --> 0:01:57.680 He got me into this, and he would go to 0:01:57.720 --> 0:02:00.800 like yeah, yeah, Matt, Yeah, he would go like meetings 0:02:00.800 --> 0:02:03.680 and like about the future without oil and like I 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:05.960 mean like he was big time into it. And at 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:08.000 that time, there are a lot of like very smart 0:02:08.080 --> 0:02:12.200 people talking very loudly saying like, dudes, we may have 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:15.000 already hit peak oil and we need to start doing 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:17.079 something about it or else, like we're really in really 0:02:17.160 --> 0:02:21.359 big trouble. Those those voices have quieted down quite a 0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:23.880 bit due to some developments in the last couple of years. 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:28.560 It's almost kind of like a throwback. There's a lot 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:32.160 of stuff happening. But um, for the most part, there 0:02:32.320 --> 0:02:34.919 is agreement that we will one day hit peak oil. 0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:37.520 And the definition of peak oil is now when we 0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:41.839 run out of oil, but when our oil production right 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:44.840 like removing it from the ground, it can no longer 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:48.120 keep up with demand. The whole reason that this will 0:02:48.160 --> 0:02:53.040 probably happen is because oil is a very finite resource, right, yes, 0:02:53.080 --> 0:02:55.480 and we are not treating it as such. No, So 0:02:55.560 --> 0:02:57.880 those two things combined mean that we're gonna gonna run 0:02:57.880 --> 0:02:59.920 out at some point. But even if we did treat it, 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:03.120 like even if we did conserve our oil, but we 0:03:03.160 --> 0:03:07.119 didn't bring any other type of energy into it, it's 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:10.200 it's a finite resource. Like it takes ten million years 0:03:10.280 --> 0:03:15.040 for um, these these fossil fuels at least to be 0:03:15.120 --> 0:03:18.480 produced to turn into crude oil. Um. The reason we 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:19.800 have so much of it is because there was a 0:03:19.840 --> 0:03:24.880 massive die out of large dinosaurs. Now see I read 0:03:24.880 --> 0:03:26.840 that the dinosaurs had very little to do with it, 0:03:27.600 --> 0:03:31.680 and then it was like other, uh, living creatures. Well, 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:34.920 you tell me who said that that's that's that's a 0:03:34.920 --> 0:03:37.760 good look it up. Some guy a lot smarter than me. Okay, 0:03:37.880 --> 0:03:42.560 So but regardless, regardless Um. The dinosaurs may or may 0:03:42.560 --> 0:03:44.400 not have had something to do with it. But things 0:03:44.440 --> 0:03:46.960 that lived at least ten million years ago and whose 0:03:47.040 --> 0:03:52.120 corpses were subject to these specific geological processes form oil. 0:03:52.960 --> 0:03:55.080 And there's only a very limited amount of it. It 0:03:55.200 --> 0:03:58.880 is the definition of a non renewable resource petroleum. We're 0:03:58.880 --> 0:04:01.600 going to run out of it event filling. But like 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:05.680 you were asking, like when that happens, and what happens 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:09.200 when we reach that point. That's what the debate over 0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:12.720 peak oil is. Because some people think we may never 0:04:12.800 --> 0:04:16.600 hit peak oil. Um, we may. We may come up 0:04:16.600 --> 0:04:19.800 with great alternative energy on the gaps as it were, right, um, 0:04:19.880 --> 0:04:23.839 and and like maybe we'll just leave oil behind, will 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:25.839 never go back and like use up the whole world's 0:04:25.839 --> 0:04:28.520 apply because something else will come along or will master 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:32.320 wind technology and we'll be fine. But for the most part, 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:35.000 people agree that we will hit this point of peak oil, 0:04:35.040 --> 0:04:39.400 which again isn't running out of oil, it's where production 0:04:39.720 --> 0:04:44.159 plateaus and starts to decline, demand keeps increasing. Yes, I 0:04:44.200 --> 0:04:46.080 think you have a big problem there. If people don't 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:48.640 get that by now, well no, if you the third time, 0:04:48.720 --> 0:04:50.880 if you talk to I can tell you that people 0:04:50.880 --> 0:04:54.880 who are peak oil adherents are very very satisfied with 0:04:54.960 --> 0:04:57.279 us right now because we pointed that out three times, 0:04:57.680 --> 0:05:00.680 because it's a big, big misconcept. Wait, is that him 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:02.440 now he's coming in here to give us a bat 0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:06.200 on the back? I guess who could that be? King 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:10.560 Hibbert Hubbert? He's dead? Probably, well, I believe, so all right, 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:12.320 let's get it. Mean he was working in the fifties, 0:05:12.360 --> 0:05:15.920 So I guess we kind of we laid out while 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:18.479 we're talking about but it is all based on M. 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:22.680 King Hubbert's Hubbart curve. That's right. Do we need to 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:25.479 talk about the VP reporter? Is that old news? Well 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:28.279 they do that every year. Okay, so what does the 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:30.640 recent one say? Do you know? Well, this is one 0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:34.839 of the recent developments. So this BPU Statistical Review of 0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:39.200 World Energy um BP compiles all of this energy information 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:43.080 every year and it's a huge, awesome PDF of like 0:05:43.600 --> 0:05:49.479 energy information and um In two thousand eight they published 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:52.760 that they that we have one point or one thousand, 0:05:52.800 --> 0:05:56.040 two d and thirty eight billion barrels of oil improved reserves. 0:05:56.240 --> 0:06:00.760 That's one point to trillion barrels of oil improved reserves. Now, 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:03.880 proved reserve doesn't mean that like you already have it 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:08.400 in a barrel. It means that some seismologists has done 0:06:08.520 --> 0:06:11.919 a geological survey of an area and said, yeah, there's 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:14.440 oil there and it has a ninety percent chance of 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:20.000 being easily extractable. Okay, and you probably have this many 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:24.520 barrels in this reserve. That's a proven reserve, right, there's 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:27.000 also probably stuff that we haven't found out there yet. 0:06:27.839 --> 0:06:32.039 That's that adds to the whole oil base. But BP 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:34.400 set in two thousand eight that we have one point 0:06:34.440 --> 0:06:37.599 two trillion barrels of oil. In two twelve they said 0:06:37.640 --> 0:06:41.400 that we have one point six trillion. So we added 0:06:41.920 --> 0:06:47.480 four hundred billion barrels of oil in four years. That's 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:49.760 a that's a that was a huge thing that quieted 0:06:49.800 --> 0:06:53.720 everybody down. Okay, well that's good. Yeah, UM could be 0:06:53.760 --> 0:06:57.719 a little hinky because, um, the people giving up this 0:06:57.800 --> 0:07:04.080 information um get you know, they get money and funding 0:07:04.320 --> 0:07:07.440 based on things like this. Yeah, if you remember, and 0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:11.400 they're not um, they're not checking their work as it were, either. 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:14.840 So what you have is, um, you're not being audited, 0:07:15.280 --> 0:07:17.240 and if you lie about your numbers, you might get 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:19.720 more funding. So a lot of people say, wait a minute, 0:07:19.760 --> 0:07:23.400 shouldn't trust reports like this there and yeah, there's for 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:27.239 every for every bit of information or data, there's basically 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:29.480 two ways to look at it. It's either truthful or 0:07:29.520 --> 0:07:32.040 here's all the reasons why it's probably not truthful. I 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:33.800 know this is one of those things. Is just the 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:36.120 point counterpoint just goes on and on and on. Yeah, 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:38.440 And the reason why is because we have no idea 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:41.880 how much oil is left on earth, Like, we can't say, 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:45.760 and like the people who supposedly do know have reason 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:49.760 to not be truthful about it, right or to exaggerate it. 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:53.840 Even so, Um, the BP Statistical Review is very very 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:57.160 widely respected. It's also criticized for that reason that you 0:07:57.280 --> 0:08:02.360 just said. But um, the the the whole idea behind 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:05.080 this is what we were is based on what the 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:07.800 guy who we were talking about, M. King Hubbard, came 0:08:07.880 --> 0:08:10.560 up with in the nineteen fifties, which is called the 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:13.520 Hubbard curve. Right. Yeah, and this just makes sense to me. 0:08:13.760 --> 0:08:15.520 I don't know why it took this guy to come 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:18.880 up with this, um, but it basically says, you know, 0:08:18.920 --> 0:08:22.360 what oil reserves are gonna follow, what trajectory, Um, you're 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:25.720 gonna tap it and you're gonna pump oil out and 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:29.560 after that production is gonna plateau and then it's gonna decline. Yeah, 0:08:29.760 --> 0:08:32.559 it took some smart guy to figure that out. Yeah, 0:08:32.600 --> 0:08:35.960 and I feel where you're coming, and I think the 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:38.719 same thing, But I think like there's a specific like 0:08:40.040 --> 0:08:43.240 like this guy really grafted it out and could predict 0:08:43.320 --> 0:08:45.640 like within maybe a year or something like that, which 0:08:45.640 --> 0:08:50.360 he did. The reason why everybody listens to Hubbard was because, um, 0:08:50.400 --> 0:08:54.280 he predicted that the US would hit its own peak 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:58.800 production in sometime between n and seventy. Well, he missed 0:08:58.800 --> 0:09:01.680 it by a year. The you s oil production peaked 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:07.600 in nineteen and it's been declining ever since. Um. And 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:10.120 this guy has made other great predictions. But the point 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:15.240 is his Hubbard curve for any oil reserve, if you 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:17.400 look at all of the reserves on Earth, is one 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:20.720 large reserve, then the Earth's oil supplies to follow the 0:09:20.800 --> 0:09:25.040 same predictable curve. And eventually, when you hit this plateau 0:09:25.160 --> 0:09:29.280 and production starts to decline, it's inevitable. Right, That's right. 0:09:29.400 --> 0:09:31.160 It makes sense to you, it makes sense to me. 0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:38.640 So where's the problem? Uh, Well, the the In two 0:09:38.640 --> 0:09:44.400 thousand seven, the Government Accountability Office published another study that said, 0:09:44.520 --> 0:09:47.120 all right, we need to you know, guard ourselves against 0:09:47.120 --> 0:09:51.440 this potential fallout from the peak oil problem. And so 0:09:51.520 --> 0:09:53.920 there's a lot of factors here. You liken it to 0:09:53.960 --> 0:09:57.160 a marathon. This is a terrible analogy. I would say 0:09:57.160 --> 0:10:00.559 a relay race. That's where you messed up. Oh yeah, yeah, 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:05.520 because any got different team members doing better or worse, oh, 0:10:05.720 --> 0:10:09.079 contributing or detracting. I walked right by that, man, I 0:10:09.360 --> 0:10:11.880 walked right by that. So let's look at a relay race. 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:14.439 And each of the runners in your relay race is 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:19.439 going to represent um oil consumption production or alternative fuels. 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:23.320 So as alternative fuels get more advanced, then you're gonna 0:10:23.360 --> 0:10:27.360 be using less oil. So that's great um as uh 0:10:27.559 --> 0:10:31.720 consumption um, I guess you know we're trying to make 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:34.840 moves to just consume less, right or conserve? Yeah, and 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:37.920 conserving the uh Obamas put in place a lot of 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:43.360 um stringent um rules for car manufacturers, the CAFE standards. 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:46.839 So in August he did he signed in something and 0:10:46.920 --> 0:10:50.360 a lot of that doubles the CAFE standards to fifty 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:54.440 four point five miles per gallon by that's awesome. Yeah, 0:10:54.440 --> 0:10:58.120 and that will huge impact on oil consumption. So if 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:00.000 you're in your little relay race still, that means oil 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:03.839 is stabilized a little more because you're just not using, using, using, 0:11:03.960 --> 0:11:08.440 you're decreasing supply, which is taxing demand, or you're decreasing demand, 0:11:08.440 --> 0:11:11.640 which is taxing supply lines. But then other bad things 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:13.679 can happen. One of the little relay racers might get 0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:16.880 hung up by, um, the fact that China and India 0:11:17.360 --> 0:11:21.120 are growing in many ways and need some of that oil, 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:22.719 and so all of a sudden you're going to be 0:11:22.880 --> 0:11:25.640 using more oil. And it's just a sort of a 0:11:25.679 --> 0:11:29.920 give and take, a little seesaw effect until I guess what, 0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:32.320 do you get a plateau? Or or that's just the 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:34.880 changes the formulas. I think part of the analogy that 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:37.600 I've I got wrong too was like I was making 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:40.959 all these racers like racing towards the peak oil line, 0:11:41.320 --> 0:11:44.360 the finish line. Humanity is like on a way on 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:47.280 its way toward that, but how fast we get there 0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:50.920 depends on these things. So it's almost like they're marbles 0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:53.560 or jacks or stuff for us to trip their banana peals. 0:11:53.559 --> 0:11:57.320 These are different kinds of banana appeals. Okay, some are slipper, 0:11:57.400 --> 0:12:01.480 more slippery than others. Very good then, UM. One thing 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:04.360 is for sure is that here in the United States 0:12:04.360 --> 0:12:09.880 we use a lot of oil for UM transportation, that's 0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:13.800 the primary use of UM. What's the percentage now, seventy 0:12:14.240 --> 0:12:18.240 of all oil goes to transportation in the US? Does 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:21.840 that worldwide? In the US? Sorry? UM? And as of 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:25.200 now we are getting the good news is we're at 0:12:25.200 --> 0:12:28.239 a twenty year low for for for an oil imports 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:33.280 were right, that's a very glib percentage, Like when it 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:35.800 gets the energy. You really have to pay attention to 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:41.240 what how a statistic is worded, because there's a lot 0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:43.560 of different factors involved. There's a lot of different ways 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:45.320 of looking at And that's a really good example of 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:49.720 seventy of all of our petroleum goes to transportation. That's 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:53.600 mind boggling figure. But what we're really talking about is 0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:57.760 not oil consumption or energy consumption. We're talking about where 0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:00.720 that oil goes to and actually are assumption of oil 0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:02.920 in the US has declined in the last few years. 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:05.760 So while we're still using seventy of all that oil 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:09.840 for transportation, we're actually using less oil overall. What about 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.520 the imports though, is that what you were talking about, Well, 0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:15.040 the imports have actually declined as well. No, no, that's 0:13:15.080 --> 0:13:16.679 what I said. But you said that's the stat that 0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:18.400 you have to be really wary of. Well, you have 0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:20.319 to be wary of all the two stats. But no, 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:22.760 like there are some that are just kind of broad 0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:24.760 and above boards, and one of them is how much 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:28.520 we're using how much we're importing UM and are actually 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:33.320 we're we're importing more but we're using less. So we're 0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:36.880 importing something like UM sixty of all the all the 0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:41.680 petroleum we used in two thousand eleven we imported, yeah, 0:13:41.920 --> 0:13:44.120 which is more than the fifty eight percent in two 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:46.920 thousand seven. So it took a sharp decrease in because 0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:51.080 we're at now as of August of two thousand twelve. 0:13:51.360 --> 0:13:54.240 No way, Yeah, it's a twenty year low for foreign 0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:57.760 oil imports. Okay, all right, so we currently we're using 0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:01.080 UH as far as this two thousand and eleven, we 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:04.480 used an average of eighteen thousand, eight hundred and thirty 0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:07.679 five thousand barrels per day, which is a very British 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:12.800 way of saying eighteen point eight three five million barrels 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:17.199 a day. Yes, a day. It's a lot yeah, a 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:21.320 lot of petrol, which is also very British, right, Um, 0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:24.320 but we we were importing less and that's actually less 0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:26.320 than we were using before. And you say there's a 0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:29.800 sharp decline down to what down to where at a 0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:33.480 twenty year low supposedly of foreign imports of imports not 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:37.440 necessarily consumption imports. Okay, and why uh, well, a lot 0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:39.160 of reasons. I know that they found a lot more 0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:44.120 oil in America recently, apparently Texas and I think one 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:47.600 of the Dakotas. And from what I understand, also natural 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:51.800 gas is stepping up in in providing a lot more 0:14:51.960 --> 0:14:56.320 energy than it was before. Good for you natural gas. Yeah, 0:14:56.360 --> 0:15:01.040 aside from the whole fracking problem. Frack that so chuck, 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:02.880 where are we at all? Right? I think we're the 0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:06.440 problems the other side of the coin. Two thousand six, 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:10.680 the Cambridge Energy Research Associates said, you know what, We've 0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:13.800 got lots of oil. Don't you worry about it. We've 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:18.320 actually got three point seven four trillion barrels, three times 0:15:18.320 --> 0:15:22.520 as many as uh, you guys said as the peak 0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:27.240 oil proponent coil proponent. Yeah, that's that's you guys. And um, 0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:29.400 and don't you worry about it. It's gonna be an 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:32.760 undulating plateau. It's gonna be this drop off, and we 0:15:32.880 --> 0:15:36.160 got oil for decades and decades that we can fill 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:39.120 in the gaps as things come along with other forms 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:42.480 of energy, and the sky is not falling. Just shut 0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:44.760 up and watch Dancing with the Stars, right, And if 0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:46.880 you read that BP reported, it says that we have 0:15:47.080 --> 0:15:51.280 enough improven reserves to last us uninterrupted for fifty four 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:55.760 point five years. Fifty four point two years UM, which 0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:58.000 is a very long time. That's a lot of oil. 0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:01.440 Peak oil people say that it's great, man, that's awesome, 0:16:01.600 --> 0:16:04.480 But we can't just sit back and say, well, we're 0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:06.840 just gonna keep going like this for fifty four years, 0:16:06.880 --> 0:16:11.240 because we will shoot ourselves in the foot. The whole 0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:15.680 point of believing in peak oil is saying that you 0:16:16.280 --> 0:16:21.560 we have to take steps now to make sure that 0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:26.480 when we hit that fifty four point two year we're fine. 0:16:26.640 --> 0:16:30.160 We're totally covered. But as you say, there are plenty 0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:32.360 of people out there, like the c r A or 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:37.000 SIRA that says, you guys are crazy. Just settle down, yeah, Like, 0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:39.320 and you know the reason they say things like this 0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:41.760 is because there's a lot of oil out there that 0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:45.880 we haven't even touched. In the Arctic, for example, Um, 0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:48.920 maybe a hundred and eighteen billion barrels of oil. And 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:51.240 we know it's out there. This is not a theory. No, 0:16:51.360 --> 0:16:53.480 they're discovered in the fifties. Yeah, it's we know it's 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:55.680 out there. It's just really expensive to go get because 0:16:55.720 --> 0:16:57.800 it's in the Arctic. Yeah, this costs a lot of 0:16:57.880 --> 0:17:01.040 lobbying money to get into the Arctic to under the ocean. 0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:04.000 Lots of oil down there. It's just very deep. We're 0:17:04.040 --> 0:17:06.160 just we're just waiting, and we got this oil shell 0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:09.040 all over Canada. Canada is basically like one big oil 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:14.280 shell in the Western US too. Don't worry people, We've 0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:16.200 got all these these super fields that we haven't even 0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:18.840 discovered yet. There's tons of oil. Don't worry about it, 0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:22.119 so chuck. The reason why we have all this oil 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:27.600 but it's just sitting there, um, is mainly because it's 0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:30.720 expensive to get it. Under these conditions, you still have 0:17:30.800 --> 0:17:36.399 plenty of oil that's easily gotten right, um. And usually 0:17:36.440 --> 0:17:39.040 the way we get oil is in a three stage process, 0:17:39.480 --> 0:17:43.280 and most companies are only up to stage two, so 0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:45.200 it's really a two stage process. Does anyone even go 0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:50.040 to the third stage. Not yet in the future. Sorry. 0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:54.720 Uh that that's like that when when oil prices rise 0:17:54.800 --> 0:17:59.520 so high that your paycheck goes to buy gas, that's 0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:02.399 when they can afford. Yeah, because when you're paying twenty 0:18:02.400 --> 0:18:04.720 dollars a gallon for gas, then they can afford to 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:07.200 go down to the art exactly. It's an economic incentus. 0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:10.520 So normally when you get oil um stage one is 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:14.479 where you like tap the reservoir and oil pretty much 0:18:14.520 --> 0:18:16.680 just bubbles up out of the ground. You get about 0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:19.760 ten percent of that reservoir from that first stage. Second 0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:21.560 one you have to exert a little bit of effort. 0:18:21.840 --> 0:18:25.320 You pump some CO two or some water into there, 0:18:25.720 --> 0:18:27.840 and you recharge it and it starts to come up. 0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:31.640 You get anywhere from like another twenty Yeah, I think 0:18:31.640 --> 0:18:33.640 a lot of the if you watch, like there will 0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:36.520 be blood. I think those early guys, those were the dudes. 0:18:36.840 --> 0:18:39.159 I mean, they're the dudes that are now you know, 0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:41.879 the one percent, Like I don't even think they were 0:18:41.880 --> 0:18:45.320 probably going secondary. They were just going around from oil, 0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:49.720 you know, tapping that top ten percent cheaply and just 0:18:49.840 --> 0:18:53.399 moving on. But but now they move on after the 0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:57.040 second stage. Yes, after the second stage gesture you've taken 0:18:57.440 --> 0:19:04.200 um anywhere from what thirty two, which means there's fifty 0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:08.240 of that reservoir still left. You cap it and say, well, 0:19:08.320 --> 0:19:12.320 let's mark the spot and move on. P on it right, 0:19:12.480 --> 0:19:15.040 put you a little flag down. Well, now you want 0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:18.440 to use like some sort of um phosphorescent or fluorescent 0:19:18.480 --> 0:19:20.480 like crayon the market and you can come back with 0:19:20.480 --> 0:19:22.280 the black light and be like, oh here it is 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:25.359 X marks the spot. So they cap it again because 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:28.000 of expense, because to go down and get that final 0:19:28.840 --> 0:19:31.800 is just too expensive right now. Same with extracting oil 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:35.520 from oil shale or tarsans or um getting into the 0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:37.479 Arctic or into the deep ocean. There's just not an 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:43.040 economic incentive. But if you are a m a critic 0:19:43.359 --> 0:19:47.840 of peak oil, you're going to say we'll get to 0:19:47.920 --> 0:19:50.680 that when, like we have all that extra stuff out there. 0:19:51.400 --> 0:19:55.040 Calm down, Yeah, right. It is kind of good to 0:19:55.080 --> 0:19:58.200 know in a way, you know, it's it's it's it's not. 0:19:58.400 --> 0:19:59.960 I mean, I guess it's probably good that it's exp 0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:03.480 and because it would be very human like to just 0:20:03.520 --> 0:20:06.640 suck those things as dry as a bone and then 0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:10.240 move on and they're my friend, you just tapped into 0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:14.960 the central theme of peak oil. It is very humanlike 0:20:15.040 --> 0:20:18.080 to just keep plotting along and and suck something down 0:20:18.080 --> 0:20:23.080 to the bone and not look beyond that day when 0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:27.200 the bone is dry. Yeah, yeah, you're right. It's sad. 0:20:28.359 --> 0:20:31.040 I've always wondered too if the Earth needed oil, and 0:20:31.040 --> 0:20:32.640 I've looked it up on the internet and I can't 0:20:32.680 --> 0:20:35.280 find anything. Remember I talked about this before. I don't 0:20:35.320 --> 0:20:38.160 remember what that was. And I researched again a little 0:20:38.160 --> 0:20:40.520 bit last night. I was like, and I can't find 0:20:40.520 --> 0:20:43.560 any intelligent person on the internet that it's not just 0:20:43.600 --> 0:20:46.439 some message board saying, you know, oil is the blood 0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:48.520 of the Earth and the planet and if we suck 0:20:48.560 --> 0:20:50.840 it dry, like why do you think we have earthquakes? So, 0:20:51.200 --> 0:20:54.719 but I don't know. There's oil and earth. It's conservaive function, right, 0:20:55.840 --> 0:20:59.640 I would imagine, maybe I would think. So I tend 0:20:59.720 --> 0:21:04.160 to think of things is um as a whole like that, 0:21:04.240 --> 0:21:07.160 like the Earth has Maybe there's reasons for everything like that, 0:21:07.400 --> 0:21:09.600 or even if there isn't a reason, that's been around 0:21:09.600 --> 0:21:12.200 so long, even something's become dependent on it. So it's 0:21:12.240 --> 0:21:15.320 important to something else other than our cars, right, And 0:21:15.359 --> 0:21:18.600 it is a lubricator and it is found within hard rock. 0:21:19.840 --> 0:21:23.040 I don't know, maybe I'm crazy. So Chuck, we talked 0:21:23.080 --> 0:21:27.080 about UM, how this article is kind of almost a throwback. 0:21:30.080 --> 0:21:32.240 It's a it's like a snapshot of like this kind 0:21:32.240 --> 0:21:34.119 of I don't want to say hysteria because I think 0:21:34.200 --> 0:21:36.879 it's it's right. But there was a lot of stuff 0:21:36.960 --> 0:21:39.600 going on in like two thousand and eight that we're 0:21:39.720 --> 0:21:44.040 making these peak oil adherents UH say hey, we're right. 0:21:44.160 --> 0:21:48.840 Everybody pay attention. And probably the thing that UM verified 0:21:48.880 --> 0:21:53.119 their beliefs more than anything else came on July eleven, 0:21:53.200 --> 0:21:56.240 two eight, when oil reached an all time high of 0:21:56.359 --> 0:22:00.239 a hundred and forty seven dollars of barrel. That is expensive, right, 0:22:00.280 --> 0:22:02.439 And if you believe in peak oil, or if you 0:22:02.640 --> 0:22:07.160 are an adherent of the peak oil idea, UM, this 0:22:07.240 --> 0:22:09.320 is like one of the four horsemen riding out of 0:22:09.320 --> 0:22:13.480 the sky. But the thing was they ended up being UM. 0:22:14.000 --> 0:22:17.920 They were duped like everybody else by the speculators who 0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:20.440 had driven up prices, but they were saying, no, this 0:22:20.480 --> 0:22:22.560 is a problem. This is part of what they call 0:22:22.720 --> 0:22:27.520 peak light, which they think we've hit. Peak light is 0:22:27.640 --> 0:22:31.160 basically where production starts the plateau and we don't realize 0:22:31.160 --> 0:22:33.720 that it's going to eventually decline. But we're in the plateau, 0:22:34.400 --> 0:22:36.639 and um, there will be like little highs and lows, 0:22:37.000 --> 0:22:39.760 and all of those are going to each one reflects 0:22:39.840 --> 0:22:45.120 this smaller scale, longer time frame version of the actual 0:22:45.280 --> 0:22:49.800 peak oil. But it's kind of, um, it's like the smaller, 0:22:50.240 --> 0:22:52.119 smaller version of it. Once we hit the peak, and 0:22:52.160 --> 0:22:54.840 they think that's where we are now. Um, And if 0:22:54.880 --> 0:22:57.000 you ask me, that peak sounds an awful lot like 0:22:57.040 --> 0:23:01.159 what Sara was saying. The undulating plateau and peak light 0:23:01.240 --> 0:23:03.719 sound like they're virtually the same. Maybe so, yeah, but 0:23:03.960 --> 0:23:07.880