1 00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:04,280 Speaker 1: Welcome to you Stuff you should Know from House Stuff 2 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 1: Works dot com. Hey, and welcome to the podcast. I'm 3 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: Josh Clark, There's Charles W. Chuck Bryant, and this is 4 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 1: stuff you should know the podcast. And it's election day. 5 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: We didn't mention that before. Oh yeah, you know, it's 6 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 1: election day. I'm not sure when this is gonna come out. 7 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 1: I can tell you exactly it's gonna come out. How 8 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: do we know about this one? Well, it'll come out 9 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:39,160 Speaker 1: either the twenties, seventh or twenty nine of November. Yeah, great, 10 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: what a great time to talk about pek oil. Yeah, 11 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:48,920 Speaker 1: the holiday season. Everybody's still digesting Thanksgiving dinner. Um, it's 12 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:52,199 Speaker 1: a little chilly out. It's what's every It's what everyone's 13 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 1: thinking about right now when football and sports and stuff 14 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: like that in fall colors. Let's talk about oil instead. 15 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 1: When will the world's oil production be outstripped by demand irrevocably? 16 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 1: That's right, that's what peak oil is. That's what we're 17 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 1: talking about. Before we get started, I need to just 18 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 1: clear something up. Peak oil is a definite thing. So 19 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 1: where's the controversy when it's gonna happen, When it's gonna happen, 20 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: and exactly what will happen after it? Help because reading 21 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: this I was a little confused. It seemed like some 22 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 1: people were like denying that it was going to happen 23 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: at all or something. Yeah, we got run out of 24 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,119 Speaker 1: oil at some point. So if you talk to any 25 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 1: peak oil adherent there's there's definitely some that are a 26 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: little more the sky is following them, and I think 27 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:45,679 Speaker 1: they probably represent the minority, especially now. But if you 28 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:51,559 Speaker 1: went back to two when I wrote this, remember Matt Baker, Yes, 29 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 1: Matt Baker, he used to work here. He was a developer. 30 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: He got me into this, and he would go to 31 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 1: like yeah, yeah, Matt, Yeah, he would go like meetings 32 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 1: and like about the future without oil and like I 33 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: mean like he was big time into it. And at 34 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 1: that time, there are a lot of like very smart 35 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: people talking very loudly saying like, dudes, we may have 36 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: already hit peak oil and we need to start doing 37 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,079 Speaker 1: something about it or else, like we're really in really 38 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 1: big trouble. Those those voices have quieted down quite a 39 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 1: bit due to some developments in the last couple of years. 40 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 1: It's almost kind of like a throwback. There's a lot 41 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 1: of stuff happening. But um, for the most part, there 42 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:34,919 Speaker 1: is agreement that we will one day hit peak oil. 43 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 1: And the definition of peak oil is now when we 44 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:41,839 Speaker 1: run out of oil, but when our oil production right 45 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 1: like removing it from the ground, it can no longer 46 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 1: keep up with demand. The whole reason that this will 47 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: probably happen is because oil is a very finite resource, right, yes, 48 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 1: and we are not treating it as such. No, So 49 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 1: those two things combined mean that we're gonna gonna run 50 00:02:57,880 --> 00:02:59,920 Speaker 1: out at some point. But even if we did treat it, 51 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: like even if we did conserve our oil, but we 52 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:07,119 Speaker 1: didn't bring any other type of energy into it, it's 53 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: it's a finite resource. Like it takes ten million years 54 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: for um, these these fossil fuels at least to be 55 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 1: produced to turn into crude oil. Um. The reason we 56 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 1: have so much of it is because there was a 57 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 1: massive die out of large dinosaurs. Now see I read 58 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: that the dinosaurs had very little to do with it, 59 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 1: and then it was like other, uh, living creatures. Well, 60 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: you tell me who said that that's that's that's a 61 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: good look it up. Some guy a lot smarter than me. Okay, 62 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 1: So but regardless, regardless Um. The dinosaurs may or may 63 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 1: not have had something to do with it. But things 64 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: that lived at least ten million years ago and whose 65 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 1: corpses were subject to these specific geological processes form oil. 66 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 1: And there's only a very limited amount of it. It 67 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: is the definition of a non renewable resource petroleum. We're 68 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 1: going to run out of it event filling. But like 69 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: you were asking, like when that happens, and what happens 70 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 1: when we reach that point. That's what the debate over 71 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 1: peak oil is. Because some people think we may never 72 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:16,600 Speaker 1: hit peak oil. Um, we may. We may come up 73 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 1: with great alternative energy on the gaps as it were, right, um, 74 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,839 Speaker 1: and and like maybe we'll just leave oil behind, will 75 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:25,839 Speaker 1: never go back and like use up the whole world's 76 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 1: apply because something else will come along or will master 77 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: wind technology and we'll be fine. But for the most part, 78 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 1: people agree that we will hit this point of peak oil, 79 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: which again isn't running out of oil, it's where production 80 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 1: plateaus and starts to decline, demand keeps increasing. Yes, I 81 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: think you have a big problem there. If people don't 82 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 1: get that by now, well no, if you the third time, 83 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: if you talk to I can tell you that people 84 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 1: who are peak oil adherents are very very satisfied with 85 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:57,279 Speaker 1: us right now because we pointed that out three times, 86 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 1: because it's a big, big misconcept. Wait, is that him 87 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 1: now he's coming in here to give us a bat 88 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 1: on the back? I guess who could that be? King 89 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 1: Hibbert Hubbert? He's dead? Probably, well, I believe, so all right, 90 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 1: let's get it. Mean he was working in the fifties, 91 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,920 Speaker 1: So I guess we kind of we laid out while 92 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:18,479 Speaker 1: we're talking about but it is all based on M. 93 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: King Hubbert's Hubbart curve. That's right. Do we need to 94 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:25,479 Speaker 1: talk about the VP reporter? Is that old news? Well 95 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,279 Speaker 1: they do that every year. Okay, so what does the 96 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 1: recent one say? Do you know? Well, this is one 97 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 1: of the recent developments. So this BPU Statistical Review of 98 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: World Energy um BP compiles all of this energy information 99 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 1: every year and it's a huge, awesome PDF of like 100 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:49,479 Speaker 1: energy information and um In two thousand eight they published 101 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 1: that they that we have one point or one thousand, 102 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 1: two d and thirty eight billion barrels of oil improved reserves. 103 00:05:56,240 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 1: That's one point to trillion barrels of oil improved reserves. Now, 104 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 1: proved reserve doesn't mean that like you already have it 105 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 1: in a barrel. It means that some seismologists has done 106 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,919 Speaker 1: a geological survey of an area and said, yeah, there's 107 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 1: oil there and it has a ninety percent chance of 108 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 1: being easily extractable. Okay, and you probably have this many 109 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 1: barrels in this reserve. That's a proven reserve, right, there's 110 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 1: also probably stuff that we haven't found out there yet. 111 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:32,039 Speaker 1: That's that adds to the whole oil base. But BP 112 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 1: set in two thousand eight that we have one point 113 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:37,599 Speaker 1: two trillion barrels of oil. In two twelve they said 114 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 1: that we have one point six trillion. So we added 115 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 1: four hundred billion barrels of oil in four years. That's 116 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 1: a that's a that was a huge thing that quieted 117 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:53,720 Speaker 1: everybody down. Okay, well that's good. Yeah, UM could be 118 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:57,719 Speaker 1: a little hinky because, um, the people giving up this 119 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 1: information um get you know, they get money and funding 120 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 1: based on things like this. Yeah, if you remember, and 121 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 1: they're not um, they're not checking their work as it were, either. 122 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 1: So what you have is, um, you're not being audited, 123 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 1: and if you lie about your numbers, you might get 124 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: more funding. So a lot of people say, wait a minute, 125 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 1: shouldn't trust reports like this there and yeah, there's for 126 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:27,239 Speaker 1: every for every bit of information or data, there's basically 127 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 1: two ways to look at it. It's either truthful or 128 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 1: here's all the reasons why it's probably not truthful. I 129 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 1: know this is one of those things. Is just the 130 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 1: point counterpoint just goes on and on and on. Yeah, 131 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 1: And the reason why is because we have no idea 132 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 1: how much oil is left on earth, Like, we can't say, 133 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 1: and like the people who supposedly do know have reason 134 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 1: to not be truthful about it, right or to exaggerate it. 135 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: Even so, Um, the BP Statistical Review is very very 136 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 1: widely respected. It's also criticized for that reason that you 137 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 1: just said. But um, the the the whole idea behind 138 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: this is what we were is based on what the 139 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 1: guy who we were talking about, M. King Hubbard, came 140 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: up with in the nineteen fifties, which is called the 141 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 1: Hubbard curve. Right. Yeah, and this just makes sense to me. 142 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 1: I don't know why it took this guy to come 143 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: up with this, um, but it basically says, you know, 144 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 1: what oil reserves are gonna follow, what trajectory, Um, you're 145 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: gonna tap it and you're gonna pump oil out and 146 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 1: after that production is gonna plateau and then it's gonna decline. Yeah, 147 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:32,559 Speaker 1: it took some smart guy to figure that out. Yeah, 148 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 1: and I feel where you're coming, and I think the 149 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:38,719 Speaker 1: same thing, But I think like there's a specific like 150 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: like this guy really grafted it out and could predict 151 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 1: like within maybe a year or something like that, which 152 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: he did. The reason why everybody listens to Hubbard was because, um, 153 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 1: he predicted that the US would hit its own peak 154 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 1: production in sometime between n and seventy. Well, he missed 155 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,680 Speaker 1: it by a year. The you s oil production peaked 156 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 1: in nineteen and it's been declining ever since. Um. And 157 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 1: this guy has made other great predictions. But the point 158 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 1: is his Hubbard curve for any oil reserve, if you 159 00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 1: look at all of the reserves on Earth, is one 160 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 1: large reserve, then the Earth's oil supplies to follow the 161 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: same predictable curve. And eventually, when you hit this plateau 162 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 1: and production starts to decline, it's inevitable. Right, That's right. 163 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: It makes sense to you, it makes sense to me. 164 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 1: So where's the problem? Uh, Well, the the In two 165 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 1: thousand seven, the Government Accountability Office published another study that said, 166 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 1: all right, we need to you know, guard ourselves against 167 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 1: this potential fallout from the peak oil problem. And so 168 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:53,920 Speaker 1: there's a lot of factors here. You liken it to 169 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: a marathon. This is a terrible analogy. I would say 170 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,559 Speaker 1: a relay race. That's where you messed up. Oh yeah, yeah, 171 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 1: because any got different team members doing better or worse, oh, 172 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:09,079 Speaker 1: contributing or detracting. I walked right by that, man, I 173 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: walked right by that. So let's look at a relay race. 174 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:14,439 Speaker 1: And each of the runners in your relay race is 175 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:19,439 Speaker 1: going to represent um oil consumption production or alternative fuels. 176 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:23,320 Speaker 1: So as alternative fuels get more advanced, then you're gonna 177 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 1: be using less oil. So that's great um as uh 178 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 1: consumption um, I guess you know we're trying to make 179 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 1: moves to just consume less, right or conserve? Yeah, and 180 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 1: conserving the uh Obamas put in place a lot of 181 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: um stringent um rules for car manufacturers, the CAFE standards. 182 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:46,839 Speaker 1: So in August he did he signed in something and 183 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 1: a lot of that doubles the CAFE standards to fifty 184 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 1: four point five miles per gallon by that's awesome. Yeah, 185 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 1: and that will huge impact on oil consumption. So if 186 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: you're in your little relay race still, that means oil 187 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:03,839 Speaker 1: is stabilized a little more because you're just not using, using, using, 188 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 1: you're decreasing supply, which is taxing demand, or you're decreasing demand, 189 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 1: which is taxing supply lines. But then other bad things 190 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:13,679 Speaker 1: can happen. One of the little relay racers might get 191 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: hung up by, um, the fact that China and India 192 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 1: are growing in many ways and need some of that oil, 193 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:22,719 Speaker 1: and so all of a sudden you're going to be 194 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 1: using more oil. And it's just a sort of a 195 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 1: give and take, a little seesaw effect until I guess what, 196 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 1: do you get a plateau? Or or that's just the 197 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 1: changes the formulas. I think part of the analogy that 198 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 1: I've I got wrong too was like I was making 199 00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:40,959 Speaker 1: all these racers like racing towards the peak oil line, 200 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:44,360 Speaker 1: the finish line. Humanity is like on a way on 201 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 1: its way toward that, but how fast we get there 202 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 1: depends on these things. So it's almost like they're marbles 203 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 1: or jacks or stuff for us to trip their banana peals. 204 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 1: These are different kinds of banana appeals. Okay, some are slipper, 205 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 1: more slippery than others. Very good then, UM. One thing 206 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 1: is for sure is that here in the United States 207 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 1: we use a lot of oil for UM transportation, that's 208 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 1: the primary use of UM. What's the percentage now, seventy 209 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 1: of all oil goes to transportation in the US? Does 210 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 1: that worldwide? In the US? Sorry? UM? And as of 211 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 1: now we are getting the good news is we're at 212 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:28,239 Speaker 1: a twenty year low for for for an oil imports 213 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 1: were right, that's a very glib percentage, Like when it 214 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: gets the energy. You really have to pay attention to 215 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 1: what how a statistic is worded, because there's a lot 216 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:43,560 Speaker 1: of different factors involved. There's a lot of different ways 217 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:45,320 Speaker 1: of looking at And that's a really good example of 218 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: seventy of all of our petroleum goes to transportation. That's 219 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 1: mind boggling figure. But what we're really talking about is 220 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: not oil consumption or energy consumption. We're talking about where 221 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 1: that oil goes to and actually are assumption of oil 222 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: in the US has declined in the last few years. 223 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 1: So while we're still using seventy of all that oil 224 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: for transportation, we're actually using less oil overall. What about 225 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: the imports though, is that what you were talking about, Well, 226 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 1: the imports have actually declined as well. No, no, that's 227 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:16,679 Speaker 1: what I said. But you said that's the stat that 228 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 1: you have to be really wary of. Well, you have 229 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:20,319 Speaker 1: to be wary of all the two stats. But no, 230 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 1: like there are some that are just kind of broad 231 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 1: and above boards, and one of them is how much 232 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 1: we're using how much we're importing UM and are actually 233 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:33,320 Speaker 1: we're we're importing more but we're using less. So we're 234 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: importing something like UM sixty of all the all the 235 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 1: petroleum we used in two thousand eleven we imported, yeah, 236 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 1: which is more than the fifty eight percent in two 237 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 1: thousand seven. So it took a sharp decrease in because 238 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 1: we're at now as of August of two thousand twelve. 239 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 1: No way, Yeah, it's a twenty year low for foreign 240 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 1: oil imports. Okay, all right, so we currently we're using 241 00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 1: UH as far as this two thousand and eleven, we 242 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 1: used an average of eighteen thousand, eight hundred and thirty 243 00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:07,679 Speaker 1: five thousand barrels per day, which is a very British 244 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 1: way of saying eighteen point eight three five million barrels 245 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:17,199 Speaker 1: a day. Yes, a day. It's a lot yeah, a 246 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 1: lot of petrol, which is also very British, right, Um, 247 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 1: but we we were importing less and that's actually less 248 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 1: than we were using before. And you say there's a 249 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 1: sharp decline down to what down to where at a 250 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: twenty year low supposedly of foreign imports of imports not 251 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 1: necessarily consumption imports. Okay, and why uh, well, a lot 252 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: of reasons. I know that they found a lot more 253 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 1: oil in America recently, apparently Texas and I think one 254 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: of the Dakotas. And from what I understand, also natural 255 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 1: gas is stepping up in in providing a lot more 256 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 1: energy than it was before. Good for you natural gas. Yeah, 257 00:14:56,360 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 1: aside from the whole fracking problem. Frack that so chuck, 258 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 1: where are we at all? Right? I think we're the 259 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 1: problems the other side of the coin. Two thousand six, 260 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 1: the Cambridge Energy Research Associates said, you know what, We've 261 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 1: got lots of oil. Don't you worry about it. We've 262 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 1: actually got three point seven four trillion barrels, three times 263 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 1: as many as uh, you guys said as the peak 264 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 1: oil proponent coil proponent. Yeah, that's that's you guys. And um, 265 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: and don't you worry about it. It's gonna be an 266 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 1: undulating plateau. It's gonna be this drop off, and we 267 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 1: got oil for decades and decades that we can fill 268 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 1: in the gaps as things come along with other forms 269 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 1: of energy, and the sky is not falling. Just shut 270 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 1: up and watch Dancing with the Stars, right, And if 271 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 1: you read that BP reported, it says that we have 272 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 1: enough improven reserves to last us uninterrupted for fifty four 273 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 1: point five years. Fifty four point two years UM, which 274 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 1: is a very long time. That's a lot of oil. 275 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: Peak oil people say that it's great, man, that's awesome, 276 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 1: But we can't just sit back and say, well, we're 277 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 1: just gonna keep going like this for fifty four years, 278 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 1: because we will shoot ourselves in the foot. The whole 279 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 1: point of believing in peak oil is saying that you 280 00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 1: we have to take steps now to make sure that 281 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 1: when we hit that fifty four point two year we're fine. 282 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: We're totally covered. But as you say, there are plenty 283 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 1: of people out there, like the c r A or 284 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:37,000 Speaker 1: SIRA that says, you guys are crazy. Just settle down, yeah, Like, 285 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 1: and you know the reason they say things like this 286 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 1: is because there's a lot of oil out there that 287 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:45,880 Speaker 1: we haven't even touched. In the Arctic, for example, Um, 288 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 1: maybe a hundred and eighteen billion barrels of oil. And 289 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 1: we know it's out there. This is not a theory. No, 290 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 1: they're discovered in the fifties. Yeah, it's we know it's 291 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 1: out there. It's just really expensive to go get because 292 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 1: it's in the Arctic. Yeah, this costs a lot of 293 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 1: lobbying money to get into the Arctic to under the ocean. 294 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 1: Lots of oil down there. It's just very deep. We're 295 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:06,160 Speaker 1: just we're just waiting, and we got this oil shell 296 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 1: all over Canada. Canada is basically like one big oil 297 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 1: shell in the Western US too. Don't worry people, We've 298 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:16,200 Speaker 1: got all these these super fields that we haven't even 299 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 1: discovered yet. There's tons of oil. Don't worry about it, 300 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 1: so chuck. The reason why we have all this oil 301 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 1: but it's just sitting there, um, is mainly because it's 302 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 1: expensive to get it. Under these conditions, you still have 303 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:36,399 Speaker 1: plenty of oil that's easily gotten right, um. And usually 304 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 1: the way we get oil is in a three stage process, 305 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 1: and most companies are only up to stage two, so 306 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 1: it's really a two stage process. Does anyone even go 307 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 1: to the third stage. Not yet in the future. Sorry. 308 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 1: Uh that that's like that when when oil prices rise 309 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 1: so high that your paycheck goes to buy gas, that's 310 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,399 Speaker 1: when they can afford. Yeah, because when you're paying twenty 311 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: dollars a gallon for gas, then they can afford to 312 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 1: go down to the art exactly. It's an economic incentus. 313 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:10,520 Speaker 1: So normally when you get oil um stage one is 314 00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:14,479 Speaker 1: where you like tap the reservoir and oil pretty much 315 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:16,680 Speaker 1: just bubbles up out of the ground. You get about 316 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 1: ten percent of that reservoir from that first stage. Second 317 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 1: one you have to exert a little bit of effort. 318 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 1: You pump some CO two or some water into there, 319 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 1: and you recharge it and it starts to come up. 320 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:31,640 Speaker 1: You get anywhere from like another twenty Yeah, I think 321 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:33,640 Speaker 1: a lot of the if you watch, like there will 322 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 1: be blood. I think those early guys, those were the dudes. 323 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:39,159 Speaker 1: I mean, they're the dudes that are now you know, 324 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,879 Speaker 1: the one percent, Like I don't even think they were 325 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 1: probably going secondary. They were just going around from oil, 326 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 1: you know, tapping that top ten percent cheaply and just 327 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:53,399 Speaker 1: moving on. But but now they move on after the 328 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 1: second stage. Yes, after the second stage gesture you've taken 329 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:04,200 Speaker 1: um anywhere from what thirty two, which means there's fifty 330 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 1: of that reservoir still left. You cap it and say, well, 331 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 1: let's mark the spot and move on. P on it right, 332 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 1: put you a little flag down. Well, now you want 333 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 1: to use like some sort of um phosphorescent or fluorescent 334 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 1: like crayon the market and you can come back with 335 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 1: the black light and be like, oh here it is 336 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 1: X marks the spot. So they cap it again because 337 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,000 Speaker 1: of expense, because to go down and get that final 338 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 1: is just too expensive right now. Same with extracting oil 339 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 1: from oil shale or tarsans or um getting into the 340 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:37,479 Speaker 1: Arctic or into the deep ocean. There's just not an 341 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 1: economic incentive. But if you are a m a critic 342 00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 1: of peak oil, you're going to say we'll get to 343 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,680 Speaker 1: that when, like we have all that extra stuff out there. 344 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 1: Calm down, Yeah, right. It is kind of good to 345 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 1: know in a way, you know, it's it's it's it's not. 346 00:19:58,400 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 1: I mean, I guess it's probably good that it's exp 347 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,480 Speaker 1: and because it would be very human like to just 348 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,640 Speaker 1: suck those things as dry as a bone and then 349 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 1: move on and they're my friend, you just tapped into 350 00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 1: the central theme of peak oil. It is very humanlike 351 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 1: to just keep plotting along and and suck something down 352 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 1: to the bone and not look beyond that day when 353 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 1: the bone is dry. Yeah, yeah, you're right. It's sad. 354 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 1: I've always wondered too if the Earth needed oil, and 355 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:32,640 Speaker 1: I've looked it up on the internet and I can't 356 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 1: find anything. Remember I talked about this before. I don't 357 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:38,160 Speaker 1: remember what that was. And I researched again a little 358 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 1: bit last night. I was like, and I can't find 359 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 1: any intelligent person on the internet that it's not just 360 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,439 Speaker 1: some message board saying, you know, oil is the blood 361 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 1: of the Earth and the planet and if we suck 362 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 1: it dry, like why do you think we have earthquakes? So, 363 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:54,719 Speaker 1: but I don't know. There's oil and earth. It's conservaive function, right, 364 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:59,640 Speaker 1: I would imagine, maybe I would think. So I tend 365 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 1: to think of things is um as a whole like that, 366 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 1: like the Earth has Maybe there's reasons for everything like that, 367 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 1: or even if there isn't a reason, that's been around 368 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 1: so long, even something's become dependent on it. So it's 369 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 1: important to something else other than our cars, right, And 370 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 1: it is a lubricator and it is found within hard rock. 371 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe I'm crazy. So Chuck, we talked 372 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 1: about UM, how this article is kind of almost a throwback. 373 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 1: It's a it's like a snapshot of like this kind 374 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,119 Speaker 1: of I don't want to say hysteria because I think 375 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:36,879 Speaker 1: it's it's right. But there was a lot of stuff 376 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 1: going on in like two thousand and eight that we're 377 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 1: making these peak oil adherents UH say hey, we're right. 378 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 1: Everybody pay attention. And probably the thing that UM verified 379 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:53,119 Speaker 1: their beliefs more than anything else came on July eleven, 380 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,240 Speaker 1: two eight, when oil reached an all time high of 381 00:21:56,359 --> 00:22:00,239 Speaker 1: a hundred and forty seven dollars of barrel. That is expensive, right, 382 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:02,439 Speaker 1: And if you believe in peak oil, or if you 383 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:07,160 Speaker 1: are an adherent of the peak oil idea, UM, this 384 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 1: is like one of the four horsemen riding out of 385 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:13,480 Speaker 1: the sky. But the thing was they ended up being UM. 386 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:17,920 Speaker 1: They were duped like everybody else by the speculators who 387 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,440 Speaker 1: had driven up prices, but they were saying, no, this 388 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,560 Speaker 1: is a problem. This is part of what they call 389 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 1: peak light, which they think we've hit. Peak light is 390 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 1: basically where production starts the plateau and we don't realize 391 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 1: that it's going to eventually decline. But we're in the plateau, 392 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:36,639 Speaker 1: and um, there will be like little highs and lows, 393 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: and all of those are going to each one reflects 394 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 1: this smaller scale, longer time frame version of the actual 395 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 1: peak oil. But it's kind of, um, it's like the smaller, 396 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,119 Speaker 1: smaller version of it. Once we hit the peak, and 397 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 1: they think that's where we are now. Um, And if 398 00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 1: you ask me, that peak sounds an awful lot like 399 00:22:57,040 --> 00:23:01,159 Speaker 1: what Sara was saying. The undulating plateau and peak light 400 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,719 Speaker 1: sound like they're virtually the same. Maybe so, yeah, but 401 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:07,880 Speaker 1: they disagree on when we hit that. Well, oil per 402 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 1: barrel is lower now. Um, thankfully, that's one big thing. 403 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 1: As far as this month goes, eight six dollars and 404 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:19,159 Speaker 1: thirty seven cents, we've added since two thousand and eight, 405 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,600 Speaker 1: we've added almost half a trillion barrels of oil improve reserves. 406 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 1: It's a big one. So we're moving in the right 407 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:30,920 Speaker 1: direction in some ways. Yeah, correct. Alternative fuels. Alternative fuels 408 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,200 Speaker 1: are making up a lot bigger chunk they make up 409 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 1: for the first time. And here's a good example of 410 00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:40,480 Speaker 1: another statistic. You have to pay attention to alternative fuels 411 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:45,879 Speaker 1: UM or renewables and nuke and hydro. For the first 412 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 1: time ever in world energy consumption make up more of 413 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 1: the energy being used than any single fossil fuel for 414 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,200 Speaker 1: the first time ever in two thousand and eleven has happened. 415 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 1: It's great covering growth and can omption. So there's your 416 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: there's a very big key factor that means that everything 417 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:10,120 Speaker 1: passed the year before. That's the growth in consumption, right, 418 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:15,440 Speaker 1: So it's covering of that, not of all energy consumption. 419 00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,280 Speaker 1: So it sounds like this huge enormous number and it's 420 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 1: a good hardening number, but it's not what you think. Like, 421 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,159 Speaker 1: you really have to pay attention when you're talking about 422 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,959 Speaker 1: energy consumption or energy stats they're true, because stats can 423 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,000 Speaker 1: be very misleading in this realm, right, and so um 424 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 1: one of the big problems with peak oil is anytime 425 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 1: you say, well, hey, we have stuff in the Arctic reserve, 426 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,000 Speaker 1: so we're fine, there's a lot of other problems that 427 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 1: come up in conjunction with it. Oil is it's very dirty, 428 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:47,360 Speaker 1: uh literally and metaphorically that's right. You could destroying ecosystem 429 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 1: very easily, very easy in the Arctic, very precious balanced ecosystem. Okay, 430 00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,479 Speaker 1: so let's just think all of our money into all 431 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 1: alternative energy. It sounds like you're saying, yeah, I would 432 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:03,120 Speaker 1: say that's a great move, but um, it can be 433 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:07,359 Speaker 1: uh promising on one hand, but things like switch grass 434 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:11,320 Speaker 1: and say yello stick ethanol are very corrosive and it's 435 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 1: very expensive to retrofit gas pumps at a gas station 436 00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 1: and gas storage tanks. It's like a grand gas station. Yeah, 437 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 1: so it's not like there's some super easy answer. Well 438 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,760 Speaker 1: plus also plus also it's like, um, you're taking investment 439 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 1: money away from finding new oil fields coming into alternative energy, 440 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,680 Speaker 1: which isn't necessarily a bad thing until you realize that. Well, 441 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 1: wait a minute, we are. We're globalized, so if you 442 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,960 Speaker 1: take away oil from China and India, you're gonna slow 443 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:43,919 Speaker 1: down this economic engine. Strike that balance, right. It's Homer 444 00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,080 Speaker 1: with the goldfish and Mr Pinchie again with the salt. 445 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 1: You know, it's the same thing. Coal. Um, they can 446 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,399 Speaker 1: actually make liquid coal now that can power a vehicle, 447 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,199 Speaker 1: which is great with no alterations. You can pump it 448 00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 1: right into your car. The bad thing is, um, coal 449 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 1: is really dirty and you're going to be emitting four 450 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 1: to eight percent more greenhouse gases than gasoline. Even so 451 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 1: again no easy answer. Well, the same goes for natural gas. 452 00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:15,919 Speaker 1: Natural gas made up of UM. The energy provided in 453 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 1: the US that was consumed was provided by natural gas 454 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:23,200 Speaker 1: last year. That's huge. It's more than coal came out 455 00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,480 Speaker 1: of nowhere. Right. But the problem is is that you 456 00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:27,960 Speaker 1: have fracking alongside of that, Like to exhibit, you have 457 00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:32,480 Speaker 1: to basically like create an environmental disaster every time. UM. 458 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:36,600 Speaker 1: So there, Yeah, there's all these problems with mitigating it, 459 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:40,520 Speaker 1: but the worst thing you can do is nothing. This 460 00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 1: one report that's kind of like peak oil adherence Bible 461 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 1: found it's called the Hirsh Report, Yeah, or a k a. 462 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,960 Speaker 1: Peaking of World oil production, colon impacts, mitigation and risk 463 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:56,399 Speaker 1: management and UM. Robert why they call it the Hersh Report. 464 00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:01,959 Speaker 1: Robert Hirsch put this together and basically laid out three scenarios. 465 00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 1: It's UM, do nothing, start ten years ahead of time 466 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,920 Speaker 1: to help out this problem, or start twenty years ahead 467 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 1: of time to to really head off this problem and 468 00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:16,919 Speaker 1: to head off these mitigations. It's UM figuring out alternative fuels, 469 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:22,400 Speaker 1: decreasing demand UM basically like just doing whatever you can 470 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:27,520 Speaker 1: to take the pressure off of production. Yeah, so that 471 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 1: we still have oil, we're just using less of it. Yeah, 472 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,119 Speaker 1: And unsurprisingly, he says twenty years before it would be 473 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:37,080 Speaker 1: the best way to handle this, ten years before. If 474 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,000 Speaker 1: you did that, he said, it could be a pretty 475 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:43,280 Speaker 1: smooth transition. Um, if you start ten years before, then 476 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 1: what were You're gonna have a problem for about a decade, 477 00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:50,439 Speaker 1: a shortfall And if you don't do anything, then you're 478 00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,040 Speaker 1: gonna have at least a twenty years shortfall. And so 479 00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 1: what we're talking about, and there's like, yes, a global 480 00:27:55,920 --> 00:28:03,119 Speaker 1: energy um shortfall. Scared, that's scary times there, because oil, petroleum, crude, 481 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 1: oil and petroleum are found in our medicine, our foods. 482 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:11,320 Speaker 1: They are used by the tanker trucks and ships that 483 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:17,720 Speaker 1: deliver petroleum use petroleum to deliver it. It's everything to everybody. 484 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:22,240 Speaker 1: It's the lifeblood of of the global economic engine. And dude, like, 485 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:28,399 Speaker 1: we've never experienced anything like what like the catastrophic collapse 486 00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,400 Speaker 1: that would happen if we experience a ten year global 487 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 1: energy shortfall. I got two words for you, mad Max. Yeah, 488 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:39,440 Speaker 1: I think, yeah, I don't I think like I don't 489 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,160 Speaker 1: see an end of that, Like if we experienced ten 490 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 1: years or twenty years, I don't see how we would 491 00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 1: ever come out of that. Yeah, I mean, because it's 492 00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,600 Speaker 1: easy to say, well, get on your bicycle, but like 493 00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:53,040 Speaker 1: you said, it's not just hey, I put gas in 494 00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 1: my car to go to work. It is everything, Like 495 00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,040 Speaker 1: all of a sudden, I can't get food delivered to 496 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:02,680 Speaker 1: the grocery store with medicines. Uh. Yeah, it's pretty scary thought. 497 00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:05,600 Speaker 1: And the big part of the I guess probably the 498 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 1: biggest problem is like we won't know when we hit 499 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,360 Speaker 1: peak oil until a few years afterwards, when all these 500 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:14,200 Speaker 1: telltale signs start coming. And I'm sure most people won't agree, 501 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 1: so it'll probably be several years afterwards. But when it's 502 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:21,840 Speaker 1: just painfully obvious that, oh, production is being outstripped by demand. 503 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:24,880 Speaker 1: Supplies can't keep up with demand anymore, and it looks 504 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:26,920 Speaker 1: like it's never going to go back up, which means 505 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,440 Speaker 1: we've hit peak oil, which means we're in trouble. What 506 00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,239 Speaker 1: mitigation measures do we have in place? Yeah. One thing 507 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,719 Speaker 1: you don't want to hear someone say is oops, you know, 508 00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 1: especially when you're talking about the global economic engine. Yeah, 509 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 1: and I think you said some people claim that it 510 00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:47,600 Speaker 1: might have already happened in two thousand five. Others say, um, no, 511 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:51,200 Speaker 1: you know what we're good to. What is when we 512 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,880 Speaker 1: hit that undulating plateau, which which which should be not 513 00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,520 Speaker 1: a problem as far as serious concerned. But even um 514 00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 1: is what you said the most conservative peak oil. Um, 515 00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:07,440 Speaker 1: that's about say enthusiasts, but inherences. Um, And yeah, that's 516 00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:09,480 Speaker 1: the latest they think it's going to happen as far 517 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:11,520 Speaker 1: as as when I wrote this in two thousand and eight. Now, 518 00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:13,840 Speaker 1: a bunch of stuff have happened. Remember, we added almost 519 00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 1: half a trillion barrels of oil, we're using less, our 520 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:22,520 Speaker 1: cafe standards were increased recently. Um, the three point four 521 00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:25,160 Speaker 1: percent of all new car registrations in the US and 522 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,960 Speaker 1: two thousand eleven, No, two doesn't twelve so far, Um, 523 00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:31,280 Speaker 1: we're hybrid or electric, which is one percent just a 524 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,880 Speaker 1: few years ago. But it's such a drop, it is, 525 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,520 Speaker 1: But like all of those drops count in like just 526 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 1: kind of prolonging this this point until we get to 527 00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 1: peak oil. Alternative energy UM investments are up. It's like 528 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,200 Speaker 1: we're doing all this great stuff and as a result, 529 00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:52,200 Speaker 1: all of the people, all these really loud voices that 530 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:54,280 Speaker 1: had like a real stage in two thousand eight and 531 00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 1: had the ears of a lot of people who were 532 00:30:56,800 --> 00:31:03,000 Speaker 1: um governing at the time. Um these the climate has changed, 533 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,200 Speaker 1: and I wonder if like it was because of a 534 00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,480 Speaker 1: lot of these peak oil adherents shouting really loud that 535 00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 1: we have made some concessions. But now I wonder if 536 00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 1: we're just going to become complacent, right, like, oh well 537 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:15,800 Speaker 1: we staved it off, we're fine for now, and we're 538 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:17,520 Speaker 1: just gonna kick it on down the road, because I 539 00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,480 Speaker 1: don't see a lot of effort going into it. I 540 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,400 Speaker 1: mean not there's some, but certainly not what is needed. 541 00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 1: I just feel like we're all headed towards the cataclysmic 542 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:31,880 Speaker 1: like collapse of humanity. Eventually we're all going to turn 543 00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,080 Speaker 1: on each other and and ruin ourselves, and the Earth 544 00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:39,040 Speaker 1: will be scorched and empty. May not be anytime soon, 545 00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,920 Speaker 1: we're maybe hundreds and hundreds of years from now. Who knows, 546 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,400 Speaker 1: but anyone that thinks that humans on planet Earth or 547 00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:50,000 Speaker 1: we're gonna be around infinitely forever because we're humans, it's just, 548 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:55,280 Speaker 1: you know, they're pooling themselves as fool's gold. Nice. How's 549 00:31:55,320 --> 00:32:00,280 Speaker 1: that for happy? That was perfect. If you wanted to 550 00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:04,840 Speaker 1: learn more about peak oil, you can type those words 551 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,040 Speaker 1: into the search bar at how stuff works dot com 552 00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:10,360 Speaker 1: and will bring up this article. And I said search 553 00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:15,240 Speaker 1: bar s means it's time for listener mail, Chuck, I'm 554 00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 1: gonna call this where's the orchestra um? This is from 555 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 1: Eric Stephens and he is a double bass player principal 556 00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:28,880 Speaker 1: double bass player in an orchestra near Cologne, Germany. And 557 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,680 Speaker 1: he listened to the Ben s Alicia about music and emotion, 558 00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:34,640 Speaker 1: which we got great feedback on. And he says many 559 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,400 Speaker 1: thanks to Ben, who played another fantastic and inspiring performance. 560 00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,240 Speaker 1: He's a beautiful open way of discussing music. I couldn't 561 00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,960 Speaker 1: agree more. Many thanks to him for mentioning the importance 562 00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,440 Speaker 1: of classical music. It's an art form that, unfortunately two 563 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:48,480 Speaker 1: feetle too few people are exposed to now, having a 564 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,760 Speaker 1: lot to do with its financial and logistical complexities, but 565 00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:54,760 Speaker 1: nonetheless one of the most powerful and underrated forms of 566 00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:58,120 Speaker 1: music today, and it has contributed so much to how 567 00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:00,720 Speaker 1: we in the Western world here proceed of music today. 568 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:02,760 Speaker 1: I would really love it if you guys could get 569 00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:06,120 Speaker 1: out and hear another performance sometime. Even more so if 570 00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,640 Speaker 1: you encourage s Y s K listeners to get out 571 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:12,480 Speaker 1: and experience and support their local orchestras. Um. It is 572 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:15,360 Speaker 1: difficult time for orchestras right now, and has been mentioned 573 00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 1: many are being forced to downsize or fold altogether. This 574 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 1: is one of the reasons why I've ended up in Germany, 575 00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:25,480 Speaker 1: which still heavily supports many orchestras with state financing and media. 576 00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,440 Speaker 1: The appreciation is very deeply rooted in the culture out here, 577 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,800 Speaker 1: and while it's a slightly different situation in the States. 578 00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:36,160 Speaker 1: I want to remind people that classical music is not 579 00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:38,760 Speaker 1: exclusive unless you make it so. And I would go 580 00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:41,040 Speaker 1: on to even point out that he means orchestral music. 581 00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,520 Speaker 1: Classical is a period of time. Oh yeah, you know, 582 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:49,920 Speaker 1: way to correct him. He probably doesn't appreciate that. Um, 583 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,400 Speaker 1: it is not exclusive unless you make it so. So 584 00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,520 Speaker 1: you don't need to have a tuxedo or a deep 585 00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,360 Speaker 1: musical education to appreciate the extreme beauty and the importance 586 00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:00,880 Speaker 1: of it. Couldn't agree more. Please give it a chance, 587 00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:05,880 Speaker 1: He'll keep it alive. And uh, that is very good advice. 588 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,880 Speaker 1: Support your local orchestra. I guarantee you whatever town you 589 00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:14,239 Speaker 1: live in, unless you're in some really backward Kansas Field town, 590 00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,000 Speaker 1: you probably got an orchestra. Even if it's a smallest town, 591 00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:19,759 Speaker 1: you might am an orchestra. Yeah, if you're in a 592 00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:22,440 Speaker 1: big city, you definitely have an orchestra. Yes, go out 593 00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,799 Speaker 1: and see. It's usually pretty cheap. Um, it's not like 594 00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:29,120 Speaker 1: paying for you know, sixty bucks to go see Jack 595 00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:35,360 Speaker 1: White make noise. I like Jack lydextra, but he's charging 596 00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:39,440 Speaker 1: too much. Sixty bucks ahead. Yeah, when he played that, 597 00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:42,080 Speaker 1: he got that rack. Rock and tours fan together tickets 598 00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:43,839 Speaker 1: for like sixty or seventy by bucks. It's a lot 599 00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:47,760 Speaker 1: for one album of material for a lot anyway. Um, 600 00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:49,480 Speaker 1: thank you for all the years of explaining the world 601 00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,640 Speaker 1: through fantastic podcast. I hope for many years to come 602 00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:55,560 Speaker 1: to hear these. When I drink my delicious colch beer tonight, 603 00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:59,879 Speaker 1: I'll roast you guys, he says Sheera Grusa. I'll call 604 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:06,080 Speaker 1: own Eric Stephen's thanks a lot. Stephens appreciate that orchestra. 605 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:08,640 Speaker 1: I'm in favor of encouraging our listeners to go out 606 00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,440 Speaker 1: to an orchestra. We got a good one a specific 607 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,439 Speaker 1: day where all stuff you should know, listeners go out 608 00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:16,600 Speaker 1: to the orchestra. Well, I don't think you can count 609 00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:19,279 Speaker 1: on an orchestras playing on that day in every town 610 00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,120 Speaker 1: and arts. Well, let's find out about it. Let's find 611 00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,320 Speaker 1: out all right, let's even get that together, like like, no, 612 00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:26,720 Speaker 1: I don't think we can make that happen. But maybe 613 00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:30,560 Speaker 1: there's a day when the orchestras typically play like traditionally speaking, 614 00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,120 Speaker 1: Or how about like this winter season, make a commitment 615 00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:36,560 Speaker 1: to go out because you're gonna be darn sure that 616 00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:43,080 Speaker 1: building orchestra playing some sort of Christmas classical concertos. All right, 617 00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,200 Speaker 1: that's it. You you have to go out and see 618 00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:49,480 Speaker 1: an orchestra this winter. Yeah, but don't. No, Cracker is 619 00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,880 Speaker 1: not bad depending on where you see it. I like 620 00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,879 Speaker 1: it's a little doll really thinks huh oh for me? Sure, 621 00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:02,720 Speaker 1: there's like giant soldier and a huge there's a rat 622 00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,480 Speaker 1: that hits people with this. There's a lot of stuff 623 00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:08,600 Speaker 1: going on. Um, well, what do you like to go see? 624 00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,480 Speaker 1: You see Christmas Carol? No, I mean I don't do 625 00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:14,000 Speaker 1: any of that stuff. I see I see Jack White 626 00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:19,280 Speaker 1: and complain. Um, let's see if you have a favorite 627 00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:21,000 Speaker 1: band you'd like to see that you think Chuck and 628 00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,839 Speaker 1: I should see, or a performance of some sort uh, 629 00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,560 Speaker 1: whether it's Nutcracker or Jack White or whatever. Well, we've 630 00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:31,640 Speaker 1: already covered this too, so you should probably leave them alone. Um, 631 00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:33,839 Speaker 1: we want to hear from you. You can tweet your 632 00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:37,040 Speaker 1: suggestions to us at s y ESK Podcast. You can 633 00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:39,480 Speaker 1: join us on Facebook dot com slash stuff you Should Know, 634 00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:43,040 Speaker 1: and you can send us a general email to Stuff 635 00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:51,680 Speaker 1: Podcast at Discovery dot com. For more on this and 636 00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:54,319 Speaker 1: thousands of other topics. Is that how Stuff Works dot 637 00:36:54,320 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 1: com