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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Friday edition. Yeah, it is Friday of
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On. We'll it be another working weekend in Washington.
Speaker 1: It will be for some and we're going to get
Speaker 1: to the speaker battle a little bit later on as
Speaker 1: we try to embrace the story of the day on
Speaker 1: this job's day. The headline on the terminal says, at
Speaker 1: all us hiring surges, bolstering case for another fedraidhike. Everybody
Speaker 1: thought this was bad news. The minute it broke. Some
Speaker 1: still do, but not if you're Joe Biden, the President,
Speaker 1: speaking earlier from the White House with a good story
Speaker 1: to tell.
Speaker 3: Heard me say before, I'm gonna keep saying that my
Speaker 3: dad had an expression, did joey at jobs about a
Speaker 3: lot more than the paycheck. It's about your dignity, It's
Speaker 3: about respect, It's about being a liquored kid in the eyes. Honey,
Speaker 3: it's going to be okay, and mean it well. Three
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty six thousand more Americans, if they have children,
Speaker 3: can say that to the children and mean it.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Three hundred and thirty six thousand, the most since
Speaker 1: the start of the year. It blew expectations, making us
Speaker 1: wonder if any of these forecasts even matter. And it's
Speaker 1: got a lot of folks worried. Despite the relief we're
Speaker 1: seeing in the stock market, a lot of folks worried
Speaker 1: about interest rates and to what extent this might contribute
Speaker 1: to a recession. That's where we begin with Anna Wong,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Economics chief economist, with us at the table here.
Speaker 1: And it's great to see you. You've been quenching numbers
Speaker 1: on a lot of stuff here, and I want to
Speaker 1: ask you, as well as we anticipate news today from
Speaker 1: the UAW, how that auto strike might play into this.
Speaker 1: But this clearly raised some eyebrows. When you see a
Speaker 1: number like this blowing away estimates to the extent that
Speaker 1: it did, are you looking at it as good news
Speaker 1: or bad?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 5: I think it's a very much a backward looking report
Speaker 5: because most of the upward positive surprises we've seen today
Speaker 5: is driven by lesion hospitality, and part of that is
Speaker 5: still the Beyonce effect, because don't forget that Beyonce had
Speaker 5: you know, I think fourteen concerts in September, and each
Speaker 5: of those concerts has like seventy thousand people in it,
Speaker 5: So that's still a lot of there's that, and that
Speaker 5: effect will go away in next month's report because actually
Speaker 5: Beyonce's tour and ended in September. In North America, you're
Speaker 5: more Beyonce J.
Speaker 1: Powell reason right.
Speaker 5: And then on top of that, there's also manufacturing, which
Speaker 5: we saw an uptick in manufacturing. However, the UAW strikes
Speaker 5: would actually likely push that manufacturing line number negative in
Speaker 5: the next in the October report if the UAW strike
Speaker 5: lasts until next Friday, and it looks like it's going to.
Speaker 6: Last next Friday.
Speaker 1: I want to ask you about the numbers you crunched
Speaker 1: specifically on the strike, but when we do look at
Speaker 1: this broadly, your point is this is the last hot report.
Speaker 1: We're going to see a very different number next month.
Speaker 1: And I wonder to what extent the childcare cliff adds
Speaker 1: to that.
Speaker 5: Well, I think the childcare cliff could affect the labor
Speaker 5: supply because we're heading into the fall season. This is
Speaker 5: where all the sickness diseases also happened flew and you know,
Speaker 5: if there's a child's care cliff, you know that that
Speaker 5: thing is expiring. On top of that, there's this influxive
Speaker 5: flu season, then we'll see women start dropping off the
Speaker 5: labor supply. I mean, so far the last couple of months,
Speaker 5: a lot of good news is coming from prime age participation,
Speaker 5: particularly from women, and so that could affect how it looks.
Speaker 5: And of course there's the UAW strikes impact.
Speaker 1: We're going to hear a little bit later on today
Speaker 1: from Sean Fame at the UAW. It is expected that
Speaker 1: he will not announce a breakthrough. And to your point,
Speaker 1: this will last likely at least until next Friday. Bloomberg Economics.
Speaker 1: Your analysis says this could mean as many as seven
Speaker 1: hundred thousand lost jobs when you consider the ancillary effects
Speaker 1: of these strikes. What did you say? It was five
Speaker 1: jobs for every striking worker, right right, So the.
Speaker 5: Seven hundred figure is just assuming if it's a full
Speaker 5: blown strike, so involving one full shut down, yeah, full
Speaker 5: one hundred and fifty. But right now only twenty five
Speaker 5: thousand UW members are on strike. This billover effect potentially
Speaker 5: could affect one hundred thirty thousand workers. So you know,
Speaker 5: in nineteen ninety eight when we had the GM strikes,
Speaker 5: ninety two hundred workers walked off and the next month,
Speaker 5: a month later, the pair report report a one hundred
Speaker 5: and fifty thousand impact from that. So this is why
Speaker 5: we think that the manufacturer line and the next job's
Speaker 5: report potentially would be negative.
Speaker 1: I saw some folks retweeting your take from a year
Speaker 1: ago on a potential recession. Where are you now?
Speaker 5: We are still thinking it's likely to be at the
Speaker 5: before the end of this year, before the end of yes. Look,
Speaker 5: look we saw even despite the very huge headline number,
Speaker 5: unemployment rate is still at three point eight percent. So
Speaker 5: all it takes is for unemployment rate to tick up
Speaker 5: to four point zero percent for the psalm's rule to
Speaker 5: be triggered. And that rule has been pretty accurate in
Speaker 5: identifying the start of recessions over the passage.
Speaker 1: You were one hundred percent at one point. Where are
Speaker 1: you now?
Speaker 5: That's the model. That's just one model. In terms of
Speaker 5: our holistic judgment, we had been at about seventy to
Speaker 5: eighty percent.
Speaker 1: Are you there now?
Speaker 5: We are still at seventy five?
Speaker 7: Wow?
Speaker 1: Reality check from Anna Wong. It's great to see you, Anna,
Speaker 1: Thank you in great work. Look for Anna Wong and
Speaker 1: her team on the terminal and at Bloomberg dot com.
Speaker 1: They do an amazing job at Bloomberg Economics. Now, I
Speaker 1: think Jason might make you feel a little bit better.
Speaker 1: Here check out the tweet from Jason Furman. We're going
Speaker 1: to go to Harvard Kennedy School to talk to him
Speaker 1: in a second.
Speaker 7: Here.
Speaker 1: First reaction to jobs numbers, shock, he says. Second reaction nervousness,
Speaker 1: further reflection. This could be quite good. Jason Furman, It's
Speaker 1: great to have you back on Bloomberg. We need you
Speaker 1: now after what Hannah Wong just told us. How are
Speaker 1: you interpreting this. You actually, of course spent time sharing
Speaker 1: Council of Economic Advisors in the White House. They're telling
Speaker 1: a good story today, but the narrative is that at
Speaker 1: some point they're going to be telling a scary story
Speaker 1: about stubbornly high interest rates in a recession. What do
Speaker 1: you think?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Look, I've been very nervous about the possibility of
Speaker 4: a soft landing, about inflation coming down. I remain nervous.
Speaker 4: We are not there yet. We've only had a couple
Speaker 4: months of data. But today's data fell for me on
Speaker 4: the positive side of the ledger as I assessed the economy,
Speaker 4: and what was particularly important to me was the you know,
Speaker 4: the wage numbers. The fact that they're slowing to me
Speaker 4: makes it look like this is a sustainable job market.
Speaker 1: Amazing, So we can we can have a number like this,
Speaker 1: three hundred and thirty six thousand. We can blow the
Speaker 1: doors off with payrolls. But as long as wages don't
Speaker 1: begin to spiral, you're comfortable with that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And it's not just not beginning to spiral, they're
Speaker 4: really slowing. And you know, so the question is you
Speaker 4: see a lot of jobs. You don't know whether that
Speaker 4: was an increase in the supply of people wanting to
Speaker 4: work or the increase in the demand for workers. It
Speaker 4: looks like this was an increase in supply. I teach
Speaker 4: introductory economics, and the way you can tell the difference
Speaker 4: between the two is what happens to the price. The
Speaker 4: price here is the wage, and so wage growth is
Speaker 4: about going at about a three and a half percent
Speaker 4: annual rate that is fully consistent with the FEDS and
Speaker 4: flow mandate. Now I want to see more wage data.
Speaker 4: I want to see data from different sources. I want
Speaker 4: to see if this holds up. But this looks to
Speaker 4: me like we're seeing labor supply increase, which is a
Speaker 4: wonderful thing to see because it isn't necessarily inflationary.
Speaker 1: Well it is. I wonder how J. Powell interprets this.
Speaker 1: You've got a market now thinking, gosh, maybe something does
Speaker 1: happen in November. Maybe this is not what we thought.
Speaker 1: I wonder where you see the FED going and maybe
Speaker 1: the bond market doing its job for it already.
Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 4: I think that last point is the most important one there,
Speaker 4: which is that the bar for hiking rates should be higher.
Speaker 4: Now long rates are more than fifty basis points above
Speaker 4: where they were. That's what actually matters for the economy
Speaker 4: that's doing a lot of work for them, and so
Speaker 4: I think it would take a it should at least,
Speaker 4: and I think probably will take a decent sized surprise
Speaker 4: to get them to hike again. I don't think today's
Speaker 4: report was enough because you have the wage number going
Speaker 4: the opposite direction. I don't think we're going to see
Speaker 4: a really blowout core CPI later this month, probably more
Speaker 4: like point two than point three, and unlikely to be
Speaker 4: point four. We then get the ECI at the end
Speaker 4: of the month for employment costs. These data suggests that
Speaker 4: won't be very high either. So I just don't see
Speaker 4: what's going to get them to feel they need to
Speaker 4: lift off at the next meeting.
Speaker 1: Wow, this is refreshingly optimistic. But Jason Furman, let me
Speaker 1: ask you about some of the outside factors that people
Speaker 1: are worried about right now. Some of them are due
Speaker 1: to Washington, the potential government shutdown. We don't know what
Speaker 1: the heck's going to happen there. We're told that lack
Speaker 1: of a speaker makes this potentially more likely. We've also
Speaker 1: got the childcare cliff that I asked Anna Wong about
Speaker 1: the expiration of these pandemic euro subsidies for childcare that
Speaker 1: could create some noise in the job market. And then
Speaker 1: we've got an historic auto workers strike and we're going
Speaker 1: to find a little bit later on where that's going.
Speaker 1: When you put all these together, where are you on
Speaker 1: the idea of a recession this year or next.
Speaker 4: Look, there's two threats to a soft landing. One is
Speaker 4: no landing where we continue to have inflation that remains.
Speaker 4: I think the biggest threat to a soft landing is
Speaker 4: that we just don't land at all. Inflation stays above
Speaker 4: three percent, and the FED at some point needs to
Speaker 4: come back and hike more. There's then the other threat
Speaker 4: to a soft landing, of course, which is a hard
Speaker 4: landing that you crash into a recession. I certainly think
Speaker 4: a recession is possible. I'm certainly nervous. I'm basically always
Speaker 4: nervous about that possibility. But a lot of the individual
Speaker 4: items that people list to me are like looking for
Speaker 4: the keys under the lamppost, just because that's where the
Speaker 4: light is. Many of these are relatively small. You can
Speaker 4: measure them. They're sort of a tenth or two on GDP.
Speaker 4: I don't think any of the specific things like the
Speaker 4: student loan prepayments, et cetera, is nearly enough for a recession.
Speaker 1: We're looking for the keys.
Speaker 4: Oh what is enough for recession is something that we
Speaker 4: don't see. I mean, recessions usually come from the place
Speaker 4: you're not looking. And I don't quite know which place
Speaker 4: that I'm not looking right now that I should be.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, of course, this is the question that so
Speaker 1: many folks are asking. You know what it's like to
Speaker 1: be inside the White House or we'll talk later today
Speaker 1: with Jared Bernstein, who has your old job on the
Speaker 1: Council of Economic Advisors. If you're advising Joe Biden right now.
Speaker 1: He delivered a very optimistic speech this morning. He said,
Speaker 1: this is Bidenomics at work. This is not by accident.
Speaker 1: Does that remain the refrain if we start going into
Speaker 1: a year in which a real downturn is possible and
Speaker 1: people are paying higher rates than they have in some
Speaker 1: cases in their lives.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I don't have message advice for the White House, and broadly,
Speaker 4: I don't know how much the message matters if inflation
Speaker 4: continues to come down and wages are out praising prices
Speaker 4: people will feel better. The economy goes into recession, people
Speaker 4: will feel worse. And there's not a whole lot the
Speaker 4: president can say that changes those underlying facts. What I
Speaker 4: do think isn't quite important, though, is you know, is
Speaker 4: that things are volatile. Don't expect three hundred and thirty
Speaker 4: six thousand jobs a month for the rest of time.
Speaker 4: In fact, if we were creating one hundred thousand jobs
Speaker 4: a month for the rest of time, that would be
Speaker 4: a perfectly wonderful pace of job cras. And so I
Speaker 4: think there does need to be some preparing people that
Speaker 4: there's inevitably ups and.
Speaker 1: Downs, you know, to that point. Lastly, Jason Furman, are
Speaker 1: we out of the business of being able to forecast here?
Speaker 1: I can't really remember the last time they nailed it.
Speaker 1: And there's still so much noise around here that you
Speaker 1: get a number like this, and you wonder if our
Speaker 1: slide rulers are still working.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, what's interesting to me is in the
Speaker 4: era of big data, we're not any better at doing
Speaker 4: this than we used to be. And you know, but
Speaker 4: it's a hard thing. There's about one hundred and fifty
Speaker 4: million jobs in our country. You're trying to guess this
Speaker 4: month it's one fifty million. This month, it's one fifty
Speaker 4: point two million. Tiny tiny errors in the level become
Speaker 4: huge errors in the change and the changes. Of course,
Speaker 4: what everyone is looking at.
Speaker 1: Great to see you, Jason, don't be a stranger. Jason
Speaker 1: Furman back on Bloomberg, of course, Professor the Practice of
Speaker 1: Economic Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, Department of Economics at
Speaker 1: Harvard University. And yes he did share the Council of
Speaker 1: Economic Advisors in the Obama White House. We assemble our
Speaker 1: panel for a quick swing at job's day. Here glad
Speaker 1: to say Rick Davis and Genie Shanzina were both with
Speaker 1: us Bloomberg Politics contributors. Joe Biden woke up on the
Speaker 1: right side of the bed today. He liked what he heard.
Speaker 1: He delivered the message. How long can he continue to
Speaker 1: do so?
Speaker 8: You know, he has to continue to give the message.
Speaker 8: But he also has to be cognizant that people are
Speaker 8: not feeling positive about the economy. You look at the
Speaker 8: latest gallop numbers his approval rating on the economy. It's
Speaker 8: not where he needs it to be. So I was
Speaker 8: surprised he is still touting by the nomics. I think
Speaker 8: he needs to talk about the fact he understands why
Speaker 8: these good numbers are not resonating with people, and that
Speaker 8: has everything to do with inflation, interest rates, and the like.
Speaker 8: We didn't hear that message today and that is worrisome
Speaker 8: to me.
Speaker 1: Joe Biden says, this Job's report is no accident, Rick,
Speaker 1: it's Bidenomics in action. Would a recession also not be
Speaker 1: by accident?
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think that he's going to own this economy.
Speaker 9: He does already.
Speaker 10: I mean, his numbers on the economy are just horrific
Speaker 10: in the middle to low thirties.
Speaker 9: He's got to do something to get him up.
Speaker 10: I'm not sure feeling your pain, as Genie suggests, is
Speaker 10: going to get him anywhere.
Speaker 9: The American public they want to see action.
Speaker 10: And if this is good news today, if the FED
Speaker 10: increases rates as a result of it, you know that
Speaker 10: backfires on him. So he's got to be very cautious,
Speaker 10: is how he sticks his neck out on economy.
Speaker 1: We're going to cover a lot with Rick and Jeanie today.
Speaker 1: It's not just jobs today, it's also the fight for
Speaker 1: the speakers gaveled in the House and now talk of
Speaker 1: a meeting next month between Presidents Biden and she It's
Speaker 1: all coming up this hour on the fastest show in politics.
Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
Speaker 2: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
Speaker 2: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 7: And the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 1: So the revolution will not be televised. I thought we
Speaker 1: had a headline here. I was looking forward to this debate.
Speaker 1: Now apparently canceled the speakers debate, not the one behind
Speaker 1: closed doors, the one that was supposed to go on
Speaker 1: Fox News. We woke up to the headline today Brett
Speaker 1: Bears coming down. We're going to have a big old
Speaker 1: debate between Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan. CNN now reporting
Speaker 1: it's off. Scalise first city would not participate. Now we
Speaker 1: understand Scalise and Jordan talked this, according to CNN and
Speaker 1: agreed that it would not be wise. Well, I guess
Speaker 1: they'll do that behind closed doors. And we still don't
Speaker 1: know exactly when the public election will take place in
Speaker 1: the House Chamber, because I guess they're going to do
Speaker 1: a vote first behind closed door. It's getting a little
Speaker 1: bit difficult to tell how this is all going to
Speaker 1: go down next week, but not a lot of people
Speaker 1: seem to think there's going to be a new speaker
Speaker 1: in place by next Wednesday. Again, Steve Scalise, Jim Jordan,
Speaker 1: were waiting on Kevin Hearn, who says he's thinking about it,
Speaker 1: and before we bring in Rick and Jennie. I'm really
Speaker 1: taken today by comments from Liz Cheney. You remember Liz Cheney,
Speaker 1: who was thrown out of the Republican conference in the House.
Speaker 1: She's been talking about Jim Jordan, someone she knew well
Speaker 1: and worked with. This takes a minute. Listened to her
Speaker 1: in an address yesterday when she decided to weigh in,
Speaker 1: remembering that Donald Trump has endorsed Jim Jordan. You knew
Speaker 1: Liz Janey wasn't going to go there.
Speaker 11: Jim Jordan knew more about what Donald Trump had planned
Speaker 11: for January sixth than any other member of the House
Speaker 11: of Representatives. Jim Jordan was involved, was part of the
Speaker 11: conspiracy in which Donald Trump was engaged as he attempted
Speaker 11: to overturn the election.
Speaker 1: She goes on to talk about the role that he
Speaker 1: played that day in helping Donald Trump try to reach
Speaker 1: his goals. That may are not factor into this decision,
Speaker 1: but it's something worth hearing. As we reassembled our panel,
Speaker 1: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano, of course, with us here
Speaker 1: on a Friday Bloomberg Politics contributors. I'll start with you here, Rick.
Speaker 1: I know Liz Cheney's words don't mean a lot to
Speaker 1: the Republican caucus in the House, at least at this point.
Speaker 1: Maybe it does to some of them, but she was
Speaker 1: unceremoniously stripped of her leadership position and of course lost
Speaker 1: a primary election. So I guess I'll advance to what
Speaker 1: we now know, and that is discord and on again,
Speaker 1: off again debate. This is not a good look for
Speaker 1: the Republican House. How's it going to go next week?
Speaker 9: Yeah?
Speaker 10: Look, I thought your introduction was spot on, Joe. We
Speaker 10: may not know until Thursday what the caucus is even
Speaker 10: willing to endorse. Remember the processes, these candidates were supposed
Speaker 10: to basically make a presentation on Tuesday, which is why
Speaker 10: this thing on Monday got canceled. It was supposed to
Speaker 10: be you know, Brett Baer interview with the candidates, and
Speaker 10: Jim Jordan said and Scalise agreed that it was inappropriate
Speaker 10: to have that public look debate prior to actually putting
Speaker 10: themselves in front of their caucus. And and I think
Speaker 10: that was a very wise decision. So anyway, Uh, everybody
Speaker 10: I've talked to thinks it will take multiple ballots within
Speaker 10: the caucus to come up with a caucus recommendation. And
Speaker 10: that's just a that's just to put a name into
Speaker 10: nomination from the Republican caucus. Remember then anybody can make
Speaker 10: nominations from the floor, which happened repeatedly during the fifteen
Speaker 10: rounds of voting, you know, when when Kevin McCarthy was elected. So, uh,
Speaker 10: this this is going to be a process that we'll
Speaker 10: be talking about throughout the week.
Speaker 9: Uh, you got to kind of hope that that.
Speaker 10: That by Thursday close of business and that's you know, midnight,
Speaker 10: by these standards, that they come up with a Speaker
Speaker 10: of the House. But it's going to be a painful
Speaker 10: and ugly process. It's been a painful and ugly process,
Speaker 10: and and and there's no indication that at this stage
Speaker 10: anybody's got enough momentum to really even come close to
Speaker 10: winning on an early ballot.
Speaker 1: We were talking this time yesterday about the possibility of
Speaker 1: Donald Trump coming to town. Reports said that he was
Speaker 1: considering coming here to address Republican members on this very issue.
Speaker 1: Some suggested he might even want to be temporary speaker himself,
Speaker 1: and based on John Carl's reporting today, that was not
Speaker 1: that far fetched. But let's deal with reality. Whether he's
Speaker 1: actually going to arrive in town because he decided to
Speaker 1: endorse Jim Jordan. There's a thought that that was his
Speaker 1: decision instead of coming here to get involved, you kick
Speaker 1: out an endorsement. We asked Byron Donald's about this last night.
Speaker 1: Trump Ally, Congressman, a Republican from Florida. Here's what he said.
Speaker 12: It's possible. I did speak with him this morning. It
Speaker 12: came up, but nothing was conclusive. It's possible he could
Speaker 12: come up here on Tuesday. Look, I think, first of all,
Speaker 12: Donald Trump is way ahead in our primary process to
Speaker 12: be the Republican nominee, depending on the state, fifty points ahead.
Speaker 12: But his smallest lead in any of these polls is
Speaker 12: twenty points he's focused on becoming our nominee to become
Speaker 12: the next president.
Speaker 1: All right, So we're thinking maybe not so much after
Speaker 1: talking to Byron Donald's genie. Does the Jim Jordan endorsement, though,
Speaker 1: make a difference?
Speaker 8: It probably will with some members of this Republican caucus.
Speaker 8: I mean, he is the leader of the Republican Party.
Speaker 8: He has endorsed Jim Jordan. But let's just go back
Speaker 8: for a minute to what Liz Cheney was saying, and
Speaker 8: it's so important the clip you played days after the
Speaker 8: January sixth insurrection. In one of his last acts as president,
Speaker 8: Donald Trump took Jim Jordan into a closed room and
Speaker 8: awarded him the Medal of Freedom after he, as Chaney noted,
Speaker 8: knew more about what was happening on January sixth than
Speaker 8: anyone else. He receives the nation's highest civilian honor from
Speaker 8: this president who was under an impeachment inquiry at the
Speaker 8: time for his acts and is now indicted for those
Speaker 8: same acts. That is who the Republicans are seriously considering
Speaker 8: turning over the second in line to the presidency and
Speaker 8: the leader of their party in the House of Representatives,
Speaker 8: Number one, number two. What world are we living in
Speaker 8: that Donald Trump ninety six indictments, leading candidate for the
Speaker 8: Republican Party has now thought seriously, as have our members
Speaker 8: of Congress, that he may also add to his list
Speaker 8: of things to do Speaker of the House. It was
Speaker 8: apparently campaign insiders who decided we better walk that back
Speaker 8: because we have jobs trying to get this dialected president.
Speaker 8: I mean, this is chaotic and insanity to a level
Speaker 8: you cannot wrap your head around. All of these things.
Speaker 8: Make people say, good gosh, let me wake up and
Speaker 8: this all be over with because it is insane. And
Speaker 8: by the way, top it off, we're facing another R.
Speaker 8: They will not be able to get those appropriations bills done,
Speaker 8: So another R to take us through.
Speaker 1: Christ two questions, Rick number one. Smart move to cancel
Speaker 1: the debate. I mean, this tell advised on Fox could
Speaker 1: have been quite the spectacle. And too is anyone in
Speaker 1: the conference in the Republican Conference listening to Liz Channey.
Speaker 10: Last first, Uh, Liz Cheney still has quite a bit
Speaker 10: of influence with you know, the more mainstream Republicans in
Speaker 10: the caucus. And and and yeah, Jim Jordan was sort
Speaker 10: of a co conspirator with a lot of the uh
Speaker 10: Freedom caucus members to try and create disarray on the
Speaker 10: floor during the electoral vote count. Absolutely, and he should
Speaker 10: pay a price for that. And and so that's all
Speaker 10: part of this crazy mix that makes it very difficult
Speaker 10: to actually see a pathway to any of these people
Speaker 10: actually getting you know, ultimately elected, uh In in the
Speaker 10: speaker's job. I mean, I think this, and I think
Speaker 10: we'll continuously here all through the weekend and on Sunday
Speaker 10: shows other Republicans from both in the chamber and outside,
Speaker 10: alumni and others weighing in on this because I think
Speaker 10: people see this as a tipping point for the caucus,
Speaker 10: and it's not totally clear right now that either candidate
Speaker 10: really takes you in a different direction, frankly than Kevin
Speaker 10: McCarthy was headed in to begin with. I mean, like,
Speaker 10: what's Tim Jordan going to get from that caucus that
Speaker 10: Kevin McCarthy didn't get. So it's a pretty crazy time.
Speaker 10: I think Genie very accurately described just how wacky this
Speaker 10: all is, and and all of it manures to the
Speaker 10: benefit of Democrats. There is no upside to any of
Speaker 10: this conversation going on for Republican prospects in the two
Speaker 10: thousand and four election.
Speaker 1: You have it from one of the most important Republican
Speaker 1: strategists in the country, Rick Davis GD shanz in no
Speaker 1: great conversation. If you're not with us on YouTube, you
Speaker 1: will not be as jealous as the rest of us
Speaker 1: of Rick's office or his dog. Search Bloomberg Global News.
Speaker 1: We've got the cameras lit and we'll meet you in
Speaker 1: here with more ahead on this idea. Yes, see this
Speaker 1: idea of Joe Biden meeting with President Sheet.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
Speaker 2: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the
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Speaker 1: So a lot of talk today about the big meeting
Speaker 1: finally happening. It's been since last November since the Chinese
Speaker 1: spy balloon, but Joe Biden and President she have had
Speaker 1: a meeting, and it's apparently very likely that this is
Speaker 1: going to happen next month here in the US. Next
Speaker 1: month is when the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation APAX summit
Speaker 1: takes place, and that's apparently where this would come together.
Speaker 1: Beijing has not signed off on this yet, but reports,
Speaker 1: including what we're hearing at Bloomberg here, suggests that it
Speaker 1: is likely apak. By the way, November eleventh to seventeenth,
Speaker 1: when the government's going to shut down, we'll see about that.
Speaker 1: Let's assemble our panel once again. Rick Davis and Jeanie
Speaker 1: Shanzano are back in Bloomberg Politics contributors. Jeanie. The President
Speaker 1: was asked about this today. He didn't have much to
Speaker 1: say about it. This is when he addressed reporters about
Speaker 1: the jobs report. Give us a listen.
Speaker 7: One of the.
Speaker 2: Prospects for a meeting between you and president of China
Speaker 2: and San Francisco next morn.
Speaker 3: There is no such meeting set up, but it is
Speaker 3: a possibility.
Speaker 1: Okay. That was literally his entire answer, Genie, should this meeting?
Speaker 1: Will this meeting happen?
Speaker 8: You know, I think I We hope it does, and
Speaker 8: we know that both sides are working on it, but
Speaker 8: there have been no firm commitments. One of the things
Speaker 8: we hear is that Ji Jinping is concerned, obviously about
Speaker 8: the domestic situation in China, also about any profit provocations
Speaker 8: that the US engages in which embarrass him prior to
Speaker 8: or during the meeting, and so whether the US is
Speaker 8: willing to make commitments to ensure this meeting happens is unclear.
Speaker 8: But what does seem clear is that if the meeting
Speaker 8: takes place, a lot of it is going to be
Speaker 8: optics and not necessarily substantive. For Biden, it's going to
Speaker 8: be to a domestic audience looking at twenty twenty four,
Speaker 8: and the same thing for Jijinping, who's got to shore
Speaker 8: up his own domestic support and base given all the
Speaker 8: challenges he faces over there. So a lot to be
Speaker 8: considered and we'll have to wait and see. But as
Speaker 8: you mentioned, the timing also fascinating because it runs right
Speaker 8: up against another potential shutdown or a cr if the
Speaker 8: Congress can get there.
Speaker 1: That's the truth. China's Foreign Minister Wang ye Rick said
Speaker 1: the US should quote create more favorable conditions for a
Speaker 1: smooth APEC meeting. I'm guessing they would not include a
Speaker 1: government shutdown. If this is for a domestic audience. How
Speaker 1: does that look when Joe Biden gets on an airplane
Speaker 1: lies to San Francisco when they're hashing out details of
Speaker 1: a budget here in the US. I don't know.
Speaker 10: There's there's an argument to be made that if you
Speaker 10: could shut the government down for a week while a
Speaker 10: decent meeting takes place, it might be the best thing
Speaker 10: that ever happened for diplomatic relations between China and the US.
Speaker 10: But I'm not sure we, you know, have much to
Speaker 10: gain from this meeting. China's kind of on its back
Speaker 10: when it comes to its own economic situation, but also
Speaker 10: diplomatic political You know, their foreign minister disappeared for a
Speaker 10: little while and then find out that he's been resigned
Speaker 10: and replaced by his predecessor. The rocket commander of China
Speaker 10: and the military disappeared one day, and then they replaced
Speaker 10: the defense minister for coruption. I mean like this, Their
Speaker 10: cabinet is a mess. I mean, honestly, you know, if
Speaker 10: we knew more about what was going on there, we
Speaker 10: might think we might have it better off.
Speaker 1: So the reality is Genie's right.
Speaker 10: We we ought to have a better dialogue going on
Speaker 10: with Chinese, but we we should not romance emphasize the
Speaker 10: notion that somehow we have too much in common with them.
Speaker 9: These days, we are in a.
Speaker 10: Full up Cold War two, and this will be one
Speaker 10: of the very first meetings since we've really entered that phase.
Speaker 1: Start breaking the ice here. Maybe Genie I took a look.
Speaker 1: It was back in June June twenty first the dictator remark,
Speaker 1: Remember this was at a fundraiser. Joe Biden referred to
Speaker 1: President she as a dictator. How does this meeting go
Speaker 1: when that's the baseline.
Speaker 8: Yeah, it sounds like it might be a little bit icy,
Speaker 8: But the reality is these two have known each other,
Speaker 8: as Joe Biden says, awful lot, for a long time.
Speaker 8: They have met several times, you know, not necessarily as
Speaker 8: President Biden. He has met with him previously in his
Speaker 8: other positions. So they do know each other, and I
Speaker 8: think they're both seasoned enough to be able to do this.
Speaker 8: The reality though, is, let's not forget there's another summit
Speaker 8: that may happen before this one, if it does happen,
Speaker 8: and that would be Vladimir pooh In taking a chance
Speaker 8: of flying out of Moscow and flying over to Beijing.
Speaker 8: And that is going to be another really important thing
Speaker 8: to watch, because is Joe Biden going to meet with
Speaker 8: Jijinping if he does meet with Putmin in Beijing, depending
Speaker 8: on how that turns out, Given everything going on here
Speaker 8: and in Eastern Europe and Western Europe as it pertains
Speaker 8: to Ukraine, amongst many other things. So it's going to
Speaker 8: be fascinating because if these both go forward. These summits
Speaker 8: are almost back to back, and again we don't know
Speaker 8: yet it they'll happen, but they are two that would
Speaker 8: have in you know, the first one, and have a
Speaker 8: key impact on the second one if it occurs.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Very interesting to your point though, Rick, these these
Speaker 1: may not be the most productive of meetings. I guess
Speaker 1: you have to start somewhere, But I wonder what the
Speaker 1: takeaway would be. You see, Joe Biden meets with President
Speaker 1: she and then a week later a cabinet official goes
Speaker 1: to Taiwan and the whole thing's off again. Yeah.
Speaker 10: Look, I mean, you know, we're we're in Uff's place
Speaker 10: with our relationship there, and and and and and frankly, uh,
Speaker 10: you know, we're doing what we need to do to
Speaker 10: shore up our defenses in the Pacific, uh, to rearm
Speaker 10: and uh you know, uh prepare Taiwan for you know,
Speaker 10: a potential attack by the Chinese, because that's what the
Speaker 10: Chinese have been signaling. I mean, Gigimping got elected his
Speaker 10: third term on the platform that he would reunite by
Speaker 10: force or by politics Taiwan. Uh, you know, uh, And
Speaker 10: so give me that term of office, give me that
Speaker 10: historic extra term, and I will do this. So uh,
Speaker 10: you know, you can't have a conversation with Jijingping right
Speaker 10: now unless you start it with Taiwan. And that's probably
Speaker 10: the last thing that that that he wants to talk
Speaker 10: to the US about.
Speaker 1: Well, lastly, then, Jennie, in our remaining moment here, if
Speaker 1: this is to a domestic audience, is this going to
Speaker 1: be performative for Joe Biden. Does he go there and
Speaker 1: you know, wag his finger and President she his face
Speaker 1: to get some some boost in the pulls.
Speaker 8: Yeah, he it is going to be performative. How he
Speaker 8: handles it, I'm not sure, but it will be performative.
Speaker 8: I have one thing or two things we could ask
Speaker 8: of the China in terms of commitments, stop hacking, stop
Speaker 8: stealing IP That would be a good start, let alone
Speaker 8: the issues involving Taiwan. So there's a lot to talk
Speaker 8: about that he could wag his finger about.
Speaker 1: That's a good start. I hope the White House is
Speaker 1: listening to Genie Shanzano and stop messing with the iPhone
Speaker 1: so we don't have to keep talking about this. I'm
Speaker 1: Joel Matthew and Washington with Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano.
Speaker 2: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the
Speaker 2: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
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Speaker 2: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 1: Nice to see you, Happy Friday. Indeed, I think it's
Speaker 1: been a seven day week already, and we'll see what
Speaker 1: happens this weekend, of course, but a lot to talk
Speaker 1: about on this job's day, which actually is somewhat refreshing
Speaker 1: to have a different thing to discuss than the speaker's race.
Speaker 1: But we're we're about to dig into that heavily before
Speaker 1: we do, though, the President talked about it today. We
Speaker 1: had Jason Ferman on last Hour and it's like this
Speaker 1: good news, bad news situation. I'm not sure where we are.
Speaker 1: You saw Jason Ferman tweeting earlier. It's his reaction started
Speaker 1: with shock, the nervousness. Then hey, this actually isn't that bad,
Speaker 1: and the stock market seems to be doing the same thing.
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean, okay, two things. Really we're looking at
Speaker 13: in jobs reports now right, The headline figure three hundred
Speaker 13: and thirty six doors off. It's just kind of insane. Honestly,
Speaker 13: it blew past every single estimate out there, and that's
Speaker 13: something President Bliden is flexing. Obviously, that is a number
Speaker 13: that works for him. But then the wage growth was
Speaker 13: actually light, just two tens of percent gain in wages
Speaker 13: hourly month on month, which is maybe not as inflationary, right,
Speaker 13: So it is kind of like this win win. And
Speaker 13: while the market freaked out at that headline payroll's number initially,
Speaker 13: I think maybe it realized that the inflation read wasn't
Speaker 13: so bad, so maybe don't freak out as much.
Speaker 1: That's that was Jason Furman's think piece earlier. We can
Speaker 1: keep growing like crazy as long as wages don't spiral. Yeah,
Speaker 1: maybe the markets will feel that way. But Anna Wong
Speaker 1: also told us next month and I can look like this,
Speaker 1: we're about to go off a cliff when it comes
Speaker 1: to jobs. So you know, we're waiting for an update
Speaker 1: from the UAW and that's going to play into this too.
Speaker 13: Absolutely. Bloomberg Economics, Anawong and the team says, if all
Speaker 13: one hundred and fifty thousand UAW workers eventually go on strike,
Speaker 13: it could mean the loss of seven hundred and sixty
Speaker 13: thousand because of all those ripple secondary effects.
Speaker 1: Imagine five jobs lost for every striking worker. That's what
Speaker 1: that cooks down to. And it really makes us realize
Speaker 1: and remember how much ancillary business is supported by one
Speaker 1: hundred percent all of these folks who are potentially going
Speaker 1: to be on a picket line. I mentioned. The President
Speaker 1: talked about this earlier before we bring in Lisa Camuso Miller.
Speaker 1: He was taking a victory lap. He talked about the
Speaker 1: always the line his dad told him about the dignity
Speaker 1: of having a job. And then they got to the numbers.
Speaker 3: The unemployment rate I stayed below four percent for twenty
Speaker 3: months in a row, the longest stretch in fifty years.
Speaker 3: We've achieved a seventy year low and unemployment rate for women,
Speaker 3: record lows and unemployment for African Americans and Hispanic workers
Speaker 3: and people with disabilities, folks who have been left behind
Speaker 3: and previous recoveries have left behind for too long. We
Speaker 3: have the highest share of working age Americans in the
Speaker 3: workforce in twenty years.
Speaker 1: So this is a pretty good story for him to tell.
Speaker 1: He says, by the way, that's no accident. That's Bidenomics.
Speaker 1: But if the recession hits, that also wouldn't be an accident.
Speaker 13: Right, Timing is everything.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Furman said that too. They can't thund the scale
Speaker 1: at the White House. There's no advice for the president here.
Speaker 1: You're either going to have a bad bit of timing,
Speaker 1: or maybe, as Anna Wong says, that recession happens at
Speaker 1: the end of this year and he's in the clear
Speaker 1: for a campaign cycle for all of these are possible.
Speaker 13: Perhaps, And of course he's also speaking at the White
Speaker 13: House at a time where there's other tumultuous things happening
Speaker 13: in the economy to strike. Obviously, he's very supportive of
Speaker 13: the UAW and what they are doing, but also could
Speaker 13: be looking down the barrel of another government shutdown potentially
Speaker 13: come November seventeenth, with the discord you're seeing in the
Speaker 13: House of Representatives at the moment.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I was just talking to Rick and Genie
Speaker 1: about this. November seventeen. You just said the date that's
Speaker 1: when he might be in San Francisco meeting with President
Speaker 1: She at the Apex Efference. So are you telling me
Speaker 1: he's going to get on a plane leave Washington in
Speaker 1: the middle of that to go meet with a foreign leader.
Speaker 1: They're going to have to maybe think about that.
Speaker 13: Well, remember when he got on a plane in the
Speaker 13: middle of the debt ceiling.
Speaker 1: Absolutely true abroad and we asked that question. Yet it depends.
Speaker 1: I guess how important this meeting is. You leave for
Speaker 1: a day. It shouldn't be that big of a thing.
Speaker 1: But it's just it's all perception. So the President was
Speaker 1: asked about the speaker's battle. You're not going to walk
Speaker 1: into a room full of reporters at the White House
Speaker 1: and not have this come up. I will tell you,
Speaker 1: Kayley Again, he seemed exhausted today. I know that this
Speaker 1: is something that some folks are concerned about. He paused
Speaker 1: a number of times, lengthy pauses thinking. She even said
Speaker 1: at one point, I need to get the words right.
Speaker 1: But he did speak to the speaker.
Speaker 3: Look, whomever the House speaker is, I'm going to try
Speaker 3: to work with they control half the Congress and is
Speaker 3: you're going to try to work with him. There some
Speaker 3: people I imagine it could be easy to work with
Speaker 3: than others. But whoever the speaker is, I'll try.
Speaker 4: To work with.
Speaker 1: I think he's talking about Jim Jordan there. Maybe not
Speaker 1: as easy as Steve Scalise. Perhaps I don't know. I
Speaker 1: can't wait to hear what Lisa Kamosa Miller has in mind.
Speaker 1: Think of how much has changed since we talked to Lisa,
Speaker 1: like five minutes ago. We have an endorsement Lisa, welcome
Speaker 1: back from Donald Trump. We have an on again now
Speaker 1: off again televised debate apparently being scheduled between Scalise and Jordan.
Speaker 1: By the way, Trump is backing Jim Jordan and might
Speaker 1: even show up on Tuesday. According to our conversation yesterday
Speaker 1: with Byron Donald's is this getting more chaotic with time?
Speaker 6: You know? I think there's two tracks in the speaker's race,
Speaker 6: and this comes from conversations I've had over the course
Speaker 6: of the last twenty four hours. The Jim Jordan factor
Speaker 6: is definitely interesting. He's never been in leadership in terms
Speaker 6: of like being the speakers, sweet or any of those areas,
Speaker 6: so folks are curious about him, but also still very wary,
Speaker 6: especially because of his close ties to Trump, but he's
Speaker 6: having conversations with all of the right organizations in terms
Speaker 6: of like Main Street and Freedom Caucus and all of
Speaker 6: the other factors inside of the House. The other factor here,
Speaker 6: and it does feel like Jordan right now, momentum is
Speaker 6: on his side, no question. But the fact that Steve
Speaker 6: Sclbies and Tom Emmer have teamed up together on a ticket,
Speaker 6: the two of them are so well liked right now,
Speaker 6: if I had to guess, two hundred and eighteen votes
Speaker 6: is definitely more favorable in that camp than it is
Speaker 6: Jim Jordan. Now, you know, and I know that five
Speaker 6: minutes from now that could all change, But that is
Speaker 6: what we're seeing and what we're hearing right now from
Speaker 6: Capitol Hill.
Speaker 13: Well, of course, there's another name in the mix as
Speaker 13: well who hasn't decided either way whether or not to
Speaker 13: formally toss his hat in the ring, Lisa, and that's
Speaker 13: Congressman Kevin Hearn. He actually posted on X earlier today,
Speaker 13: so he still hasn't made a decision on his candidacy
Speaker 13: for speaker, but he went on to say he's not
Speaker 13: going to participate in the debate. I think this is
Speaker 13: one of the contributing factors to that now kind of
Speaker 13: imploding as an idea. He went on though, to say,
Speaker 13: we need to make this decision as a conference, not
Speaker 13: on TV. The Republican Conference needs a family discussion. Lisa,
Speaker 13: it's really hard to see the Republican Conference right now
Speaker 13: as a family.
Speaker 6: I mean, I don't know about your family, but dysfunction
Speaker 6: definitely is part of the family situation in the world.
Speaker 6: But this family needs like therapy and they need a
Speaker 6: lot of work. I will say this though, I think
Speaker 6: Hearn is not a real candidate. I think McHenry is
Speaker 6: definitely not a real candidate. I think that the two
Speaker 6: candidates that are emerging right now and for sure will
Speaker 6: be the two are Jordan and Scalise. And the conference
Speaker 6: hates the idea about a televised debate because it makes
Speaker 6: this more of a circus. This already is super embarrassing.
Speaker 6: It's not terribly helpful. Last time we did this was
Speaker 6: in nineteen ten. Guess what in nineteen twelve, the Republicans
Speaker 6: lost control of the House. If we keep it up
Speaker 6: and we keep looking like petulant toddlers, the voters are
Speaker 6: going to respond. So we have work to do. And
Speaker 6: by the way, November seventeenth is like a minute away.
Speaker 6: We have got to fund the government. This stopped all momentum.
Speaker 6: After the CR passed. There were bills that were in
Speaker 6: the process that were going to get past appropriations bills
Speaker 6: for the first time ever. We were making strides, the
Speaker 6: conference was working together well, and then all of a sudden,
Speaker 6: this motion to vacate happens. Kevin McCarthy is out and
Speaker 6: we are tossed into chaos again. So this alone has
Speaker 6: stopped that momentum, and now we look get another shutdown,
Speaker 6: and this one I think could be worse.
Speaker 1: We should mention the headlines that you just put in
Speaker 1: front of me here Kaylee, while we're talking to Lisa Miller,
Speaker 1: the UAW it looks like is going to be at
Speaker 1: least maintaining, if not escalating strikes against GM, but not
Speaker 1: Ford in Staalantis. We're still waiting to hear from Sean
Speaker 1: Fain on this.
Speaker 13: Yeah, this is according to people familiar with the matter
Speaker 13: who have spoken to our colleagues here at Bloomberg. But
Speaker 13: remember Ford in Stalantis each already have been spared at
Speaker 13: one time. GM has not been spared any escalation.
Speaker 1: Thus far mercy from Mary Bara.
Speaker 13: None at all. And remember GM said earlier this week
Speaker 13: this strike has already cost them two hundred million dollars.
Speaker 13: They were securing a six billion dollar line of credit
Speaker 13: to help protect themselves, and it looks like they may
Speaker 13: get hit a little harder. According to our reporting, UAW
Speaker 13: is considering a plan to strike the GMSUV plant in Arlington, Texas. So,
Speaker 13: of course we'll continue to follow this as Sean Fain
Speaker 13: starts his live stream.
Speaker 1: There we go to Texas potentially next. I appreciate that, Kaylee.
Speaker 1: We'll let you know, keep your eyes on the terminal.
Speaker 1: The headlines will let you know what's going on with
Speaker 1: this story. Obviously, as we spent some time with Lisa
Speaker 1: Camuso Miller, you mentioned the family. I thought there were
Speaker 1: five families. Wasn't that the whole narrative of the Republican Ledhouse.
Speaker 1: It's who can navigate the five families? Lisa Camusa Miller,
Speaker 1: you're from New Jersey. You get this.
Speaker 6: I do, I do, I do, But also this, this
Speaker 6: is more than five families.
Speaker 1: It's hard to keep track.
Speaker 6: What's interesting to me is there's been a lot of
Speaker 6: reporting about the various blocks. Right, So, there was discussion
Speaker 6: yesterday in the media about how Congressman Jordan had gone
Speaker 6: to the Texas Delegation and had gone to the Main
Speaker 6: Street Coalition and had gone to and Scalice obviously is
Speaker 6: doing the same. He's on the phone, he's working the phones.
Speaker 6: Nobody knows how to do that better than him and
Speaker 6: Tom Emmer. But what is different now is that those
Speaker 6: block used to vote all together. They used to be
Speaker 6: like they would move as one, and that is no
Speaker 6: longer the case. So going to the Texas Delegation is
Speaker 6: very smart because it's a huge chunk of members and
Speaker 6: a huge block. But they'll be split. They'll be fifty
Speaker 6: to fifty. I mean half will go to Scalise and
Speaker 6: half will go to Jordan. It will not be a
Speaker 6: full block of voters. And that's what's different here is
Speaker 6: that this is not the same race and it's not
Speaker 6: the same fight. But I think the one thing that
Speaker 6: makes the conference look smart and strategic is that they
Speaker 6: not go to the floor before they know who has
Speaker 6: two hundred and eighteen votes, because we cannot have another
Speaker 6: repeat of what we saw in the beginning of the year.
Speaker 6: We have to get back to work.
Speaker 13: Yeah, I don't think anyone is eager to go through
Speaker 13: another fifteen rounds and four days of trying to get
Speaker 13: someone the gavel. But it raises the question, Lisa, just
Speaker 13: how long it's going to take before this gets to
Speaker 13: the floor. I mean, we could be looking at weeks
Speaker 13: and to your point, we are up against a deadline.
Speaker 13: That November seventeen deadline is like basic just a second away.
Speaker 13: Can you also just kind of talk about the influence
Speaker 13: of former President Trump here? As Joe mentioned Jim Jordan
Speaker 13: endorsed by the former president. Last night, Trump was teasing
Speaker 13: the idea of coming to Capitol Hill next week. We'll
Speaker 13: see if it happens, but like, how much influence does
Speaker 13: he have on the conference at this point?
Speaker 6: This is a bit of a gamble, I think for
Speaker 6: the president and for the former president. And here's why.
Speaker 6: I know that those eight that all voted together against
Speaker 6: Kevin McCarthy are with likely with Trump, but there is
Speaker 6: a whole section of moderates that are not. And can
Speaker 6: you imagine how embarrassing this would be if this was
Speaker 6: another loss for the president. This, to me is the
Speaker 6: narrative that so many of those other candidates that have
Speaker 6: been in those candidate forums the debates have been pointing
Speaker 6: to is that Donald Trump has a record of losing,
Speaker 6: and there's one thing that Republicans really want in twenty
Speaker 6: four and that's to win. So this alone could very
Speaker 6: well be a litmus test for how next November could look.
Speaker 6: I know we're seeing numbers, and I know Trump is
Speaker 6: the front runner right now, but this is yet another
Speaker 6: It's yet another cut in the erosion of his candidacy,
Speaker 6: and it adds to the narrative that he's a loser.
Speaker 6: So that alone is interesting to me. I do think
Speaker 6: it helps though, because I think that because he's the
Speaker 6: front runner, he's raising the most money. People see that
Speaker 6: too as an advantage. So right now, Kailee, I'm not
Speaker 6: sure all the way if it's going to be helpful
Speaker 6: or hurtful. But I do think that when that was
Speaker 6: announced yesterday that he was with Jordan, that that really
Speaker 6: was that really set his momentum on course for success,
Speaker 6: because it's good positive news inside the conference that the
Speaker 6: president's going to be the former president's going to be
Speaker 6: with him if he's the speaker. But the other piece
Speaker 6: of this that doesn't ever get mentioned is that he's
Speaker 6: not terribly loyal. I mean, we remember how he talked
Speaker 6: about the former speaker, right, and he said nothing. When
Speaker 6: the speaker was about to be voted out, he never
Speaker 6: spoke up. I mean, his loyalty is to himself and
Speaker 6: himself alone, and that I think is the thing that
Speaker 6: people inside the Republican Conference see and they see as
Speaker 6: a liability. I think they want to be with people
Speaker 6: like Tom Emmer. Put every single one of those House
Speaker 6: Republicans in their seats. I mean, he understands the districts.
Speaker 6: He nobody is a better collaborator, and no one delivered
Speaker 6: the past. All the wins that we gave to Kevin
Speaker 6: McCarthy a speaker came because Tom Emmer knows how to
Speaker 6: build and rally around an issue, and that is that's
Speaker 6: politics tactically that works well.
Speaker 1: I'd you like to have Lisa Kamussa Miller call you
Speaker 1: a loser on Bloomberg. That's gotta be an experience, Lisa.
Speaker 1: Great to see you. Thank you, the former communications director
Speaker 1: for the RNC, bringing experience in wisdom.
Speaker 2: As always, you're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on Catch
Speaker 2: the program live weekdays at one eastern on Bloomberg Radio,
Speaker 2: the tune in app, Bloomberg dot com and.
Speaker 7: The Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 2: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 1: Today's the day. Fat Bear Week. One of the casualties
Speaker 1: that could have come from a government shutdown which didn't
Speaker 1: end up happening lest weekend as many thought, including us,
Speaker 1: One of the casualties would have been Fat Bear Week.
Speaker 13: Would have been a travesty.
Speaker 1: Because you know, they were to close the parks. And
Speaker 1: it's the National Park Service I believe that runs this
Speaker 1: Fat Bear Week competition. It's basically like a reality.
Speaker 13: Show for fat bears.
Speaker 1: Did you know that's a big bear right there. Adult
Speaker 1: male bears average between seven and nine hundred pounds middle
Speaker 1: of the summer. By this time they can top twelve
Speaker 1: hundred pounds as they prepare for hibernation. And this is
Speaker 1: an online contest. Somebody pick your favorite fat bear. Yes,
Speaker 1: seven four seven I think was the name of the
Speaker 1: bear that won last year.
Speaker 13: It was he tipped the scales at an estimated fourteen
Speaker 13: hundred pounds.
Speaker 2: Wow.
Speaker 13: I encourage all of our listeners to go google who
Speaker 13: is the fattest bear? You will see some.
Speaker 1: Picture some very fully impressive, very fat bear four three
Speaker 1: five Holly. Another one large adult female bear the park
Speaker 1: Service website compares to a lightly toasted marshmallow in both
Speaker 1: color and shape. It's like a fat bear four to
Speaker 1: three six Holly this time of year is very fat
Speaker 1: with grizzled blonde fur. It's kind of like a watching
Speaker 1: the Kennel Club Dog Show. Just really fat bear is
Speaker 1: running around. Did you pick one?
Speaker 13: Producer Brendan writes in, if I get hugged by a
Speaker 13: fat bear, it might be my last hug.
Speaker 1: That's because he was watching cocaine.
Speaker 7: Uh.
Speaker 1: Matt Miller was pretty up on Fat Bear Week as well.
Speaker 1: Are you in touch with him on this? Because I
Speaker 1: think he listens to the show. I think he's listening
Speaker 1: right now.
Speaker 13: It's probably only a matter of seconds before he writes in,
Speaker 13: he probably already voted for the fattest bear. I'm gonna
Speaker 13: go do that now.
Speaker 1: For eighty otis apparently running hot here in the competition
Speaker 1: as he pursues one last tasty morsel before all right,
Speaker 1: we're gonna go away. Now, we're gonna go away. I'm
Speaker 1: Joe Matthew with Kayley Lines. I'll meet you on balance
Speaker 1: of power. Indeed, thanks for listening to the Sound on podcast.
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