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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Friday edition. Yeah, it is Friday of

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On. We'll it be another working weekend in Washington.

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Speaker 1: It will be for some and we're going to get

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Speaker 1: to the speaker battle a little bit later on as

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Speaker 1: we try to embrace the story of the day on

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Speaker 1: this job's day. The headline on the terminal says, at

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Speaker 1: all us hiring surges, bolstering case for another fedraidhike. Everybody

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Speaker 1: thought this was bad news. The minute it broke. Some

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Speaker 1: still do, but not if you're Joe Biden, the President,

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Speaker 1: speaking earlier from the White House with a good story

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Speaker 1: to tell.

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Speaker 3: Heard me say before, I'm gonna keep saying that my

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Speaker 3: dad had an expression, did joey at jobs about a

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Speaker 3: lot more than the paycheck. It's about your dignity, It's

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Speaker 3: about respect, It's about being a liquored kid in the eyes. Honey,

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Speaker 3: it's going to be okay, and mean it well. Three

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Speaker 3: hundred and thirty six thousand more Americans, if they have children,

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Speaker 3: can say that to the children and mean it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Three hundred and thirty six thousand, the most since

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Speaker 1: the start of the year. It blew expectations, making us

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Speaker 1: wonder if any of these forecasts even matter. And it's

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Speaker 1: got a lot of folks worried. Despite the relief we're

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Speaker 1: seeing in the stock market, a lot of folks worried

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Speaker 1: about interest rates and to what extent this might contribute

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Speaker 1: to a recession. That's where we begin with Anna Wong,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Economics chief economist, with us at the table here.

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Speaker 1: And it's great to see you. You've been quenching numbers

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Speaker 1: on a lot of stuff here, and I want to

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Speaker 1: ask you, as well as we anticipate news today from

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Speaker 1: the UAW, how that auto strike might play into this.

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Speaker 1: But this clearly raised some eyebrows. When you see a

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Speaker 1: number like this blowing away estimates to the extent that

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Speaker 1: it did, are you looking at it as good news

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Speaker 1: or bad?

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Speaker 4: Well?

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Speaker 5: I think it's a very much a backward looking report

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Speaker 5: because most of the upward positive surprises we've seen today

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Speaker 5: is driven by lesion hospitality, and part of that is

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Speaker 5: still the Beyonce effect, because don't forget that Beyonce had

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Speaker 5: you know, I think fourteen concerts in September, and each

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Speaker 5: of those concerts has like seventy thousand people in it,

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Speaker 5: So that's still a lot of there's that, and that

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Speaker 5: effect will go away in next month's report because actually

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Speaker 5: Beyonce's tour and ended in September. In North America, you're

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Speaker 5: more Beyonce J.

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Speaker 1: Powell reason right.

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Speaker 5: And then on top of that, there's also manufacturing, which

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Speaker 5: we saw an uptick in manufacturing. However, the UAW strikes

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Speaker 5: would actually likely push that manufacturing line number negative in

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Speaker 5: the next in the October report if the UAW strike

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Speaker 5: lasts until next Friday, and it looks like it's going to.

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Speaker 6: Last next Friday.

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Speaker 1: I want to ask you about the numbers you crunched

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Speaker 1: specifically on the strike, but when we do look at

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Speaker 1: this broadly, your point is this is the last hot report.

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Speaker 1: We're going to see a very different number next month.

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Speaker 1: And I wonder to what extent the childcare cliff adds

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Speaker 1: to that.

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Speaker 5: Well, I think the childcare cliff could affect the labor

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Speaker 5: supply because we're heading into the fall season. This is

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Speaker 5: where all the sickness diseases also happened flew and you know,

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Speaker 5: if there's a child's care cliff, you know that that

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Speaker 5: thing is expiring. On top of that, there's this influxive

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Speaker 5: flu season, then we'll see women start dropping off the

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Speaker 5: labor supply. I mean, so far the last couple of months,

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Speaker 5: a lot of good news is coming from prime age participation,

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Speaker 5: particularly from women, and so that could affect how it looks.

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Speaker 5: And of course there's the UAW strikes impact.

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Speaker 1: We're going to hear a little bit later on today

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Speaker 1: from Sean Fame at the UAW. It is expected that

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Speaker 1: he will not announce a breakthrough. And to your point,

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Speaker 1: this will last likely at least until next Friday. Bloomberg Economics.

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Speaker 1: Your analysis says this could mean as many as seven

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand lost jobs when you consider the ancillary effects

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Speaker 1: of these strikes. What did you say? It was five

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Speaker 1: jobs for every striking worker, right right, So the.

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Speaker 5: Seven hundred figure is just assuming if it's a full

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Speaker 5: blown strike, so involving one full shut down, yeah, full

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Speaker 5: one hundred and fifty. But right now only twenty five

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Speaker 5: thousand UW members are on strike. This billover effect potentially

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Speaker 5: could affect one hundred thirty thousand workers. So you know,

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Speaker 5: in nineteen ninety eight when we had the GM strikes,

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Speaker 5: ninety two hundred workers walked off and the next month,

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Speaker 5: a month later, the pair report report a one hundred

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Speaker 5: and fifty thousand impact from that. So this is why

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Speaker 5: we think that the manufacturer line and the next job's

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Speaker 5: report potentially would be negative.

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Speaker 1: I saw some folks retweeting your take from a year

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Speaker 1: ago on a potential recession. Where are you now?

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Speaker 5: We are still thinking it's likely to be at the

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Speaker 5: before the end of this year, before the end of yes. Look,

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Speaker 5: look we saw even despite the very huge headline number,

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Speaker 5: unemployment rate is still at three point eight percent. So

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Speaker 5: all it takes is for unemployment rate to tick up

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Speaker 5: to four point zero percent for the psalm's rule to

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Speaker 5: be triggered. And that rule has been pretty accurate in

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Speaker 5: identifying the start of recessions over the passage.

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Speaker 1: You were one hundred percent at one point. Where are

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Speaker 1: you now?

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Speaker 5: That's the model. That's just one model. In terms of

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Speaker 5: our holistic judgment, we had been at about seventy to

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Speaker 5: eighty percent.

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Speaker 1: Are you there now?

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Speaker 5: We are still at seventy five?

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Speaker 7: Wow?

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Speaker 1: Reality check from Anna Wong. It's great to see you, Anna,

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Speaker 1: Thank you in great work. Look for Anna Wong and

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Speaker 1: her team on the terminal and at Bloomberg dot com.

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Speaker 1: They do an amazing job at Bloomberg Economics. Now, I

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Speaker 1: think Jason might make you feel a little bit better.

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Speaker 1: Here check out the tweet from Jason Furman. We're going

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Speaker 1: to go to Harvard Kennedy School to talk to him

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Speaker 1: in a second.

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Speaker 7: Here.

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Speaker 1: First reaction to jobs numbers, shock, he says. Second reaction nervousness,

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Speaker 1: further reflection. This could be quite good. Jason Furman, It's

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Speaker 1: great to have you back on Bloomberg. We need you

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Speaker 1: now after what Hannah Wong just told us. How are

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Speaker 1: you interpreting this. You actually, of course spent time sharing

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Speaker 1: Council of Economic Advisors in the White House. They're telling

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Speaker 1: a good story today, but the narrative is that at

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Speaker 1: some point they're going to be telling a scary story

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Speaker 1: about stubbornly high interest rates in a recession. What do

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Speaker 1: you think?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Look, I've been very nervous about the possibility of

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Speaker 4: a soft landing, about inflation coming down. I remain nervous.

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Speaker 4: We are not there yet. We've only had a couple

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Speaker 4: months of data. But today's data fell for me on

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Speaker 4: the positive side of the ledger as I assessed the economy,

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Speaker 4: and what was particularly important to me was the you know,

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Speaker 4: the wage numbers. The fact that they're slowing to me

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Speaker 4: makes it look like this is a sustainable job market.

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Speaker 1: Amazing, So we can we can have a number like this,

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Speaker 1: three hundred and thirty six thousand. We can blow the

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Speaker 1: doors off with payrolls. But as long as wages don't

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Speaker 1: begin to spiral, you're comfortable with that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And it's not just not beginning to spiral, they're

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Speaker 4: really slowing. And you know, so the question is you

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Speaker 4: see a lot of jobs. You don't know whether that

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Speaker 4: was an increase in the supply of people wanting to

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Speaker 4: work or the increase in the demand for workers. It

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Speaker 4: looks like this was an increase in supply. I teach

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Speaker 4: introductory economics, and the way you can tell the difference

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Speaker 4: between the two is what happens to the price. The

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Speaker 4: price here is the wage, and so wage growth is

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Speaker 4: about going at about a three and a half percent

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Speaker 4: annual rate that is fully consistent with the FEDS and

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Speaker 4: flow mandate. Now I want to see more wage data.

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Speaker 4: I want to see data from different sources. I want

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Speaker 4: to see if this holds up. But this looks to

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Speaker 4: me like we're seeing labor supply increase, which is a

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Speaker 4: wonderful thing to see because it isn't necessarily inflationary.

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Speaker 1: Well it is. I wonder how J. Powell interprets this.

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Speaker 1: You've got a market now thinking, gosh, maybe something does

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Speaker 1: happen in November. Maybe this is not what we thought.

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Speaker 1: I wonder where you see the FED going and maybe

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Speaker 1: the bond market doing its job for it already.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 4: I think that last point is the most important one there,

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Speaker 4: which is that the bar for hiking rates should be higher.

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Speaker 4: Now long rates are more than fifty basis points above

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Speaker 4: where they were. That's what actually matters for the economy

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Speaker 4: that's doing a lot of work for them, and so

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Speaker 4: I think it would take a it should at least,

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Speaker 4: and I think probably will take a decent sized surprise

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Speaker 4: to get them to hike again. I don't think today's

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Speaker 4: report was enough because you have the wage number going

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Speaker 4: the opposite direction. I don't think we're going to see

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Speaker 4: a really blowout core CPI later this month, probably more

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Speaker 4: like point two than point three, and unlikely to be

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Speaker 4: point four. We then get the ECI at the end

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Speaker 4: of the month for employment costs. These data suggests that

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Speaker 4: won't be very high either. So I just don't see

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Speaker 4: what's going to get them to feel they need to

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Speaker 4: lift off at the next meeting.

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Speaker 1: Wow, this is refreshingly optimistic. But Jason Furman, let me

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Speaker 1: ask you about some of the outside factors that people

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Speaker 1: are worried about right now. Some of them are due

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Speaker 1: to Washington, the potential government shutdown. We don't know what

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Speaker 1: the heck's going to happen there. We're told that lack

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Speaker 1: of a speaker makes this potentially more likely. We've also

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Speaker 1: got the childcare cliff that I asked Anna Wong about

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Speaker 1: the expiration of these pandemic euro subsidies for childcare that

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Speaker 1: could create some noise in the job market. And then

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Speaker 1: we've got an historic auto workers strike and we're going

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Speaker 1: to find a little bit later on where that's going.

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Speaker 1: When you put all these together, where are you on

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Speaker 1: the idea of a recession this year or next.

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Speaker 4: Look, there's two threats to a soft landing. One is

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Speaker 4: no landing where we continue to have inflation that remains.

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Speaker 4: I think the biggest threat to a soft landing is

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Speaker 4: that we just don't land at all. Inflation stays above

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Speaker 4: three percent, and the FED at some point needs to

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Speaker 4: come back and hike more. There's then the other threat

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Speaker 4: to a soft landing, of course, which is a hard

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Speaker 4: landing that you crash into a recession. I certainly think

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Speaker 4: a recession is possible. I'm certainly nervous. I'm basically always

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Speaker 4: nervous about that possibility. But a lot of the individual

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Speaker 4: items that people list to me are like looking for

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Speaker 4: the keys under the lamppost, just because that's where the

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Speaker 4: light is. Many of these are relatively small. You can

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Speaker 4: measure them. They're sort of a tenth or two on GDP.

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Speaker 4: I don't think any of the specific things like the

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Speaker 4: student loan prepayments, et cetera, is nearly enough for a recession.

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Speaker 1: We're looking for the keys.

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Speaker 4: Oh what is enough for recession is something that we

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Speaker 4: don't see. I mean, recessions usually come from the place

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Speaker 4: you're not looking. And I don't quite know which place

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Speaker 4: that I'm not looking right now that I should be.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, of course, this is the question that so

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Speaker 1: many folks are asking. You know what it's like to

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Speaker 1: be inside the White House or we'll talk later today

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Speaker 1: with Jared Bernstein, who has your old job on the

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Speaker 1: Council of Economic Advisors. If you're advising Joe Biden right now.

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Speaker 1: He delivered a very optimistic speech this morning. He said,

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Speaker 1: this is Bidenomics at work. This is not by accident.

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Speaker 1: Does that remain the refrain if we start going into

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Speaker 1: a year in which a real downturn is possible and

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Speaker 1: people are paying higher rates than they have in some

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Speaker 1: cases in their lives.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I don't have message advice for the White House, and broadly,

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Speaker 4: I don't know how much the message matters if inflation

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Speaker 4: continues to come down and wages are out praising prices

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Speaker 4: people will feel better. The economy goes into recession, people

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Speaker 4: will feel worse. And there's not a whole lot the

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Speaker 4: president can say that changes those underlying facts. What I

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Speaker 4: do think isn't quite important, though, is you know, is

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Speaker 4: that things are volatile. Don't expect three hundred and thirty

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Speaker 4: six thousand jobs a month for the rest of time.

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Speaker 4: In fact, if we were creating one hundred thousand jobs

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Speaker 4: a month for the rest of time, that would be

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Speaker 4: a perfectly wonderful pace of job cras. And so I

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Speaker 4: think there does need to be some preparing people that

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Speaker 4: there's inevitably ups and.

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Speaker 1: Downs, you know, to that point. Lastly, Jason Furman, are

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Speaker 1: we out of the business of being able to forecast here?

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Speaker 1: I can't really remember the last time they nailed it.

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Speaker 1: And there's still so much noise around here that you

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Speaker 1: get a number like this, and you wonder if our

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Speaker 1: slide rulers are still working.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, what's interesting to me is in the

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Speaker 4: era of big data, we're not any better at doing

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Speaker 4: this than we used to be. And you know, but

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Speaker 4: it's a hard thing. There's about one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 4: million jobs in our country. You're trying to guess this

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Speaker 4: month it's one fifty million. This month, it's one fifty

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Speaker 4: point two million. Tiny tiny errors in the level become

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Speaker 4: huge errors in the change and the changes. Of course,

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Speaker 4: what everyone is looking at.

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Speaker 1: Great to see you, Jason, don't be a stranger. Jason

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Speaker 1: Furman back on Bloomberg, of course, Professor the Practice of

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Speaker 1: Economic Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, Department of Economics at

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Speaker 1: Harvard University. And yes he did share the Council of

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Speaker 1: Economic Advisors in the Obama White House. We assemble our

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Speaker 1: panel for a quick swing at job's day. Here glad

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Speaker 1: to say Rick Davis and Genie Shanzina were both with

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Speaker 1: us Bloomberg Politics contributors. Joe Biden woke up on the

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Speaker 1: right side of the bed today. He liked what he heard.

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Speaker 1: He delivered the message. How long can he continue to

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Speaker 1: do so?

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Speaker 8: You know, he has to continue to give the message.

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Speaker 8: But he also has to be cognizant that people are

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Speaker 8: not feeling positive about the economy. You look at the

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Speaker 8: latest gallop numbers his approval rating on the economy. It's

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Speaker 8: not where he needs it to be. So I was

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Speaker 8: surprised he is still touting by the nomics. I think

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Speaker 8: he needs to talk about the fact he understands why

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Speaker 8: these good numbers are not resonating with people, and that

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Speaker 8: has everything to do with inflation, interest rates, and the like.

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Speaker 8: We didn't hear that message today and that is worrisome

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Speaker 8: to me.

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden says, this Job's report is no accident, Rick,

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Speaker 1: it's Bidenomics in action. Would a recession also not be

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Speaker 1: by accident?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I think that he's going to own this economy.

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Speaker 9: He does already.

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Speaker 10: I mean, his numbers on the economy are just horrific

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Speaker 10: in the middle to low thirties.

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Speaker 9: He's got to do something to get him up.

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Speaker 10: I'm not sure feeling your pain, as Genie suggests, is

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Speaker 10: going to get him anywhere.

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Speaker 9: The American public they want to see action.

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Speaker 10: And if this is good news today, if the FED

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Speaker 10: increases rates as a result of it, you know that

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Speaker 10: backfires on him. So he's got to be very cautious,

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Speaker 10: is how he sticks his neck out on economy.

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Speaker 1: We're going to cover a lot with Rick and Jeanie today.

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Speaker 1: It's not just jobs today, it's also the fight for

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Speaker 1: the speakers gaveled in the House and now talk of

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Speaker 1: a meeting next month between Presidents Biden and she It's

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Speaker 1: all coming up this hour on the fastest show in politics.

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Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 2: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 2: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 7: And the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 1: So the revolution will not be televised. I thought we

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Speaker 1: had a headline here. I was looking forward to this debate.

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Speaker 1: Now apparently canceled the speakers debate, not the one behind

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Speaker 1: closed doors, the one that was supposed to go on

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Speaker 1: Fox News. We woke up to the headline today Brett

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Speaker 1: Bears coming down. We're going to have a big old

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Speaker 1: debate between Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan. CNN now reporting

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Speaker 1: it's off. Scalise first city would not participate. Now we

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Speaker 1: understand Scalise and Jordan talked this, according to CNN and

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Speaker 1: agreed that it would not be wise. Well, I guess

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Speaker 1: they'll do that behind closed doors. And we still don't

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Speaker 1: know exactly when the public election will take place in

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Speaker 1: the House Chamber, because I guess they're going to do

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Speaker 1: a vote first behind closed door. It's getting a little

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Speaker 1: bit difficult to tell how this is all going to

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Speaker 1: go down next week, but not a lot of people

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Speaker 1: seem to think there's going to be a new speaker

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Speaker 1: in place by next Wednesday. Again, Steve Scalise, Jim Jordan,

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Speaker 1: were waiting on Kevin Hearn, who says he's thinking about it,

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Speaker 1: and before we bring in Rick and Jennie. I'm really

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Speaker 1: taken today by comments from Liz Cheney. You remember Liz Cheney,

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Speaker 1: who was thrown out of the Republican conference in the House.

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Speaker 1: She's been talking about Jim Jordan, someone she knew well

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Speaker 1: and worked with. This takes a minute. Listened to her

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Speaker 1: in an address yesterday when she decided to weigh in,

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Speaker 1: remembering that Donald Trump has endorsed Jim Jordan. You knew

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Speaker 1: Liz Janey wasn't going to go there.

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Speaker 11: Jim Jordan knew more about what Donald Trump had planned

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Speaker 11: for January sixth than any other member of the House

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Speaker 11: of Representatives. Jim Jordan was involved, was part of the

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Speaker 11: conspiracy in which Donald Trump was engaged as he attempted

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Speaker 11: to overturn the election.

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Speaker 1: She goes on to talk about the role that he

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Speaker 1: played that day in helping Donald Trump try to reach

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Speaker 1: his goals. That may are not factor into this decision,

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Speaker 1: but it's something worth hearing. As we reassembled our panel,

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Speaker 1: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano, of course, with us here

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Speaker 1: on a Friday Bloomberg Politics contributors. I'll start with you here, Rick.

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Speaker 1: I know Liz Cheney's words don't mean a lot to

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Speaker 1: the Republican caucus in the House, at least at this point.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it does to some of them, but she was

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Speaker 1: unceremoniously stripped of her leadership position and of course lost

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Speaker 1: a primary election. So I guess I'll advance to what

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Speaker 1: we now know, and that is discord and on again,

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Speaker 1: off again debate. This is not a good look for

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Speaker 1: the Republican House. How's it going to go next week?

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Speaker 9: Yeah?

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Speaker 10: Look, I thought your introduction was spot on, Joe. We

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Speaker 10: may not know until Thursday what the caucus is even

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Speaker 10: willing to endorse. Remember the processes, these candidates were supposed

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Speaker 10: to basically make a presentation on Tuesday, which is why

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Speaker 10: this thing on Monday got canceled. It was supposed to

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Speaker 10: be you know, Brett Baer interview with the candidates, and

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Speaker 10: Jim Jordan said and Scalise agreed that it was inappropriate

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Speaker 10: to have that public look debate prior to actually putting

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Speaker 10: themselves in front of their caucus. And and I think

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Speaker 10: that was a very wise decision. So anyway, Uh, everybody

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Speaker 10: I've talked to thinks it will take multiple ballots within

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Speaker 10: the caucus to come up with a caucus recommendation. And

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Speaker 10: that's just a that's just to put a name into

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Speaker 10: nomination from the Republican caucus. Remember then anybody can make

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Speaker 10: nominations from the floor, which happened repeatedly during the fifteen

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Speaker 10: rounds of voting, you know, when when Kevin McCarthy was elected. So, uh,

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Speaker 10: this this is going to be a process that we'll

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Speaker 10: be talking about throughout the week.

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Speaker 9: Uh, you got to kind of hope that that.

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Speaker 10: That by Thursday close of business and that's you know, midnight,

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Speaker 10: by these standards, that they come up with a Speaker

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Speaker 10: of the House. But it's going to be a painful

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Speaker 10: and ugly process. It's been a painful and ugly process,

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Speaker 10: and and and there's no indication that at this stage

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Speaker 10: anybody's got enough momentum to really even come close to

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Speaker 10: winning on an early ballot.

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Speaker 1: We were talking this time yesterday about the possibility of

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump coming to town. Reports said that he was

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Speaker 1: considering coming here to address Republican members on this very issue.

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Speaker 1: Some suggested he might even want to be temporary speaker himself,

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Speaker 1: and based on John Carl's reporting today, that was not

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Speaker 1: that far fetched. But let's deal with reality. Whether he's

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Speaker 1: actually going to arrive in town because he decided to

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Speaker 1: endorse Jim Jordan. There's a thought that that was his

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Speaker 1: decision instead of coming here to get involved, you kick

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Speaker 1: out an endorsement. We asked Byron Donald's about this last night.

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Speaker 1: Trump Ally, Congressman, a Republican from Florida. Here's what he said.

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Speaker 12: It's possible. I did speak with him this morning. It

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Speaker 12: came up, but nothing was conclusive. It's possible he could

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Speaker 12: come up here on Tuesday. Look, I think, first of all,

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Speaker 12: Donald Trump is way ahead in our primary process to

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Speaker 12: be the Republican nominee, depending on the state, fifty points ahead.

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Speaker 12: But his smallest lead in any of these polls is

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Speaker 12: twenty points he's focused on becoming our nominee to become

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Speaker 12: the next president.

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Speaker 1: All right, So we're thinking maybe not so much after

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Speaker 1: talking to Byron Donald's genie. Does the Jim Jordan endorsement, though,

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Speaker 1: make a difference?

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Speaker 8: It probably will with some members of this Republican caucus.

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Speaker 8: I mean, he is the leader of the Republican Party.

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Speaker 8: He has endorsed Jim Jordan. But let's just go back

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Speaker 8: for a minute to what Liz Cheney was saying, and

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Speaker 8: it's so important the clip you played days after the

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Speaker 8: January sixth insurrection. In one of his last acts as president,

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Speaker 8: Donald Trump took Jim Jordan into a closed room and

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Speaker 8: awarded him the Medal of Freedom after he, as Chaney noted,

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Speaker 8: knew more about what was happening on January sixth than

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Speaker 8: anyone else. He receives the nation's highest civilian honor from

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Speaker 8: this president who was under an impeachment inquiry at the

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Speaker 8: time for his acts and is now indicted for those

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Speaker 8: same acts. That is who the Republicans are seriously considering

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Speaker 8: turning over the second in line to the presidency and

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Speaker 8: the leader of their party in the House of Representatives,

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Speaker 8: Number one, number two. What world are we living in

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Speaker 8: that Donald Trump ninety six indictments, leading candidate for the

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Speaker 8: Republican Party has now thought seriously, as have our members

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Speaker 8: of Congress, that he may also add to his list

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Speaker 8: of things to do Speaker of the House. It was

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Speaker 8: apparently campaign insiders who decided we better walk that back

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Speaker 8: because we have jobs trying to get this dialected president.

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Speaker 8: I mean, this is chaotic and insanity to a level

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Speaker 8: you cannot wrap your head around. All of these things.

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Speaker 8: Make people say, good gosh, let me wake up and

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Speaker 8: this all be over with because it is insane. And

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Speaker 8: by the way, top it off, we're facing another R.

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Speaker 8: They will not be able to get those appropriations bills done,

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Speaker 8: So another R to take us through.

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Speaker 1: Christ two questions, Rick number one. Smart move to cancel

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Speaker 1: the debate. I mean, this tell advised on Fox could

439
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 1: have been quite the spectacle. And too is anyone in

440
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 1: the conference in the Republican Conference listening to Liz Channey.

441
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 10: Last first, Uh, Liz Cheney still has quite a bit

442
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 10: of influence with you know, the more mainstream Republicans in

443
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 10: the caucus. And and and yeah, Jim Jordan was sort

444
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:22,440
Speaker 10: of a co conspirator with a lot of the uh

445
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 10: Freedom caucus members to try and create disarray on the

446
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 10: floor during the electoral vote count. Absolutely, and he should

447
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:35,880
Speaker 10: pay a price for that. And and so that's all

448
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 10: part of this crazy mix that makes it very difficult

449
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:42,959
Speaker 10: to actually see a pathway to any of these people

450
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 10: actually getting you know, ultimately elected, uh In in the

451
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 10: speaker's job. I mean, I think this, and I think

452
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 10: we'll continuously here all through the weekend and on Sunday

453
00:23:55,320 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 10: shows other Republicans from both in the chamber and outside,

454
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,640
Speaker 10: alumni and others weighing in on this because I think

455
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,920
Speaker 10: people see this as a tipping point for the caucus,

456
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 10: and it's not totally clear right now that either candidate

457
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 10: really takes you in a different direction, frankly than Kevin

458
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 10: McCarthy was headed in to begin with. I mean, like,

459
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 10: what's Tim Jordan going to get from that caucus that

460
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 10: Kevin McCarthy didn't get. So it's a pretty crazy time.

461
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:33,159
Speaker 10: I think Genie very accurately described just how wacky this

462
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 10: all is, and and all of it manures to the

463
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,679
Speaker 10: benefit of Democrats. There is no upside to any of

464
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 10: this conversation going on for Republican prospects in the two

465
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 10: thousand and four election.

466
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 1: You have it from one of the most important Republican

467
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 1: strategists in the country, Rick Davis GD shanz in no

468
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 1: great conversation. If you're not with us on YouTube, you

469
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 1: will not be as jealous as the rest of us

470
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 1: of Rick's office or his dog. Search Bloomberg Global News.

471
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:00,679
Speaker 1: We've got the cameras lit and we'll meet you in

472
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 1: here with more ahead on this idea. Yes, see this

473
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 1: idea of Joe Biden meeting with President Sheet.

474
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

475
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,159
Speaker 2: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

476
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

477
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,360
Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

478
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 1: So a lot of talk today about the big meeting

479
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 1: finally happening. It's been since last November since the Chinese

480
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 1: spy balloon, but Joe Biden and President she have had

481
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 1: a meeting, and it's apparently very likely that this is

482
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,640
Speaker 1: going to happen next month here in the US. Next

483
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:41,719
Speaker 1: month is when the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation APAX summit

484
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 1: takes place, and that's apparently where this would come together.

485
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:49,640
Speaker 1: Beijing has not signed off on this yet, but reports,

486
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 1: including what we're hearing at Bloomberg here, suggests that it

487
00:25:53,480 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 1: is likely apak. By the way, November eleventh to seventeenth,

488
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 1: when the government's going to shut down, we'll see about that.

489
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 1: Let's assemble our panel once again. Rick Davis and Jeanie

490
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:13,640
Speaker 1: Shanzano are back in Bloomberg Politics contributors. Jeanie. The President

491
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 1: was asked about this today. He didn't have much to

492
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 1: say about it. This is when he addressed reporters about

493
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 1: the jobs report. Give us a listen.

494
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 7: One of the.

495
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 2: Prospects for a meeting between you and president of China

496
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,200
Speaker 2: and San Francisco next morn.

497
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 3: There is no such meeting set up, but it is

498
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 3: a possibility.

499
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 1: Okay. That was literally his entire answer, Genie, should this meeting?

500
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 1: Will this meeting happen?

501
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 8: You know, I think I We hope it does, and

502
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,399
Speaker 8: we know that both sides are working on it, but

503
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,880
Speaker 8: there have been no firm commitments. One of the things

504
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 8: we hear is that Ji Jinping is concerned, obviously about

505
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 8: the domestic situation in China, also about any profit provocations

506
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 8: that the US engages in which embarrass him prior to

507
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 8: or during the meeting, and so whether the US is

508
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 8: willing to make commitments to ensure this meeting happens is unclear.

509
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,879
Speaker 8: But what does seem clear is that if the meeting

510
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:13,199
Speaker 8: takes place, a lot of it is going to be

511
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 8: optics and not necessarily substantive. For Biden, it's going to

512
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 8: be to a domestic audience looking at twenty twenty four,

513
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,880
Speaker 8: and the same thing for Jijinping, who's got to shore

514
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 8: up his own domestic support and base given all the

515
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 8: challenges he faces over there. So a lot to be

516
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 8: considered and we'll have to wait and see. But as

517
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 8: you mentioned, the timing also fascinating because it runs right

518
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 8: up against another potential shutdown or a cr if the

519
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:41,120
Speaker 8: Congress can get there.

520
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 1: That's the truth. China's Foreign Minister Wang ye Rick said

521
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 1: the US should quote create more favorable conditions for a

522
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 1: smooth APEC meeting. I'm guessing they would not include a

523
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 1: government shutdown. If this is for a domestic audience. How

524
00:27:58,160 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 1: does that look when Joe Biden gets on an airplane

525
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,439
Speaker 1: lies to San Francisco when they're hashing out details of

526
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 1: a budget here in the US. I don't know.

527
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 10: There's there's an argument to be made that if you

528
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 10: could shut the government down for a week while a

529
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 10: decent meeting takes place, it might be the best thing

530
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 10: that ever happened for diplomatic relations between China and the US.

531
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 10: But I'm not sure we, you know, have much to

532
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 10: gain from this meeting. China's kind of on its back

533
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 10: when it comes to its own economic situation, but also

534
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 10: diplomatic political You know, their foreign minister disappeared for a

535
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 10: little while and then find out that he's been resigned

536
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 10: and replaced by his predecessor. The rocket commander of China

537
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 10: and the military disappeared one day, and then they replaced

538
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 10: the defense minister for coruption. I mean like this, Their

539
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 10: cabinet is a mess. I mean, honestly, you know, if

540
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 10: we knew more about what was going on there, we

541
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 10: might think we might have it better off.

542
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 1: So the reality is Genie's right.

543
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 10: We we ought to have a better dialogue going on

544
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 10: with Chinese, but we we should not romance emphasize the

545
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 10: notion that somehow we have too much in common with them.

546
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 9: These days, we are in a.

547
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 10: Full up Cold War two, and this will be one

548
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 10: of the very first meetings since we've really entered that phase.

549
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 1: Start breaking the ice here. Maybe Genie I took a look.

550
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 1: It was back in June June twenty first the dictator remark,

551
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 1: Remember this was at a fundraiser. Joe Biden referred to

552
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 1: President she as a dictator. How does this meeting go

553
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 1: when that's the baseline.

554
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 8: Yeah, it sounds like it might be a little bit icy,

555
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 8: But the reality is these two have known each other,

556
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 8: as Joe Biden says, awful lot, for a long time.

557
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 8: They have met several times, you know, not necessarily as

558
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 8: President Biden. He has met with him previously in his

559
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 8: other positions. So they do know each other, and I

560
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 8: think they're both seasoned enough to be able to do this.

561
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 8: The reality though, is, let's not forget there's another summit

562
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 8: that may happen before this one, if it does happen,

563
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 8: and that would be Vladimir pooh In taking a chance

564
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 8: of flying out of Moscow and flying over to Beijing.

565
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 8: And that is going to be another really important thing

566
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,959
Speaker 8: to watch, because is Joe Biden going to meet with

567
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 8: Jijinping if he does meet with Putmin in Beijing, depending

568
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 8: on how that turns out, Given everything going on here

569
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 8: and in Eastern Europe and Western Europe as it pertains

570
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 8: to Ukraine, amongst many other things. So it's going to

571
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 8: be fascinating because if these both go forward. These summits

572
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 8: are almost back to back, and again we don't know

573
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 8: yet it they'll happen, but they are two that would

574
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 8: have in you know, the first one, and have a

575
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 8: key impact on the second one if it occurs.

576
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 1: Yeah. Very interesting to your point though, Rick, these these

577
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 1: may not be the most productive of meetings. I guess

578
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 1: you have to start somewhere, But I wonder what the

579
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 1: takeaway would be. You see, Joe Biden meets with President

580
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 1: she and then a week later a cabinet official goes

581
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 1: to Taiwan and the whole thing's off again. Yeah.

582
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 10: Look, I mean, you know, we're we're in Uff's place

583
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 10: with our relationship there, and and and and and frankly, uh,

584
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 10: you know, we're doing what we need to do to

585
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 10: shore up our defenses in the Pacific, uh, to rearm

586
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 10: and uh you know, uh prepare Taiwan for you know,

587
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 10: a potential attack by the Chinese, because that's what the

588
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 10: Chinese have been signaling. I mean, Gigimping got elected his

589
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 10: third term on the platform that he would reunite by

590
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 10: force or by politics Taiwan. Uh, you know, uh, And

591
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 10: so give me that term of office, give me that

592
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 10: historic extra term, and I will do this. So uh,

593
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 10: you know, you can't have a conversation with Jijingping right

594
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 10: now unless you start it with Taiwan. And that's probably

595
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 10: the last thing that that that he wants to talk

596
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 10: to the US about.

597
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 1: Well, lastly, then, Jennie, in our remaining moment here, if

598
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 1: this is to a domestic audience, is this going to

599
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 1: be performative for Joe Biden. Does he go there and

600
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 1: you know, wag his finger and President she his face

601
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 1: to get some some boost in the pulls.

602
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 8: Yeah, he it is going to be performative. How he

603
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 8: handles it, I'm not sure, but it will be performative.

604
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 8: I have one thing or two things we could ask

605
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 8: of the China in terms of commitments, stop hacking, stop

606
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 8: stealing IP That would be a good start, let alone

607
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 8: the issues involving Taiwan. So there's a lot to talk

608
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 8: about that he could wag his finger about.

609
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 1: That's a good start. I hope the White House is

610
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 1: listening to Genie Shanzano and stop messing with the iPhone

611
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 1: so we don't have to keep talking about this. I'm

612
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 1: Joel Matthew and Washington with Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano.

613
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 2: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the

614
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 2: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

615
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 2: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.

616
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 7: The Bloomberg Business App.

617
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

618
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 2: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

619
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 1: Nice to see you, Happy Friday. Indeed, I think it's

620
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 1: been a seven day week already, and we'll see what

621
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 1: happens this weekend, of course, but a lot to talk

622
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 1: about on this job's day, which actually is somewhat refreshing

623
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 1: to have a different thing to discuss than the speaker's race.

624
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 1: But we're we're about to dig into that heavily before

625
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 1: we do, though, the President talked about it today. We

626
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 1: had Jason Ferman on last Hour and it's like this

627
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 1: good news, bad news situation. I'm not sure where we are.

628
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 1: You saw Jason Ferman tweeting earlier. It's his reaction started

629
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 1: with shock, the nervousness. Then hey, this actually isn't that bad,

630
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 1: and the stock market seems to be doing the same thing.

631
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,959
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean, okay, two things. Really we're looking at

632
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 13: in jobs reports now right, The headline figure three hundred

633
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 13: and thirty six doors off. It's just kind of insane. Honestly,

634
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 13: it blew past every single estimate out there, and that's

635
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 13: something President Bliden is flexing. Obviously, that is a number

636
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 13: that works for him. But then the wage growth was

637
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 13: actually light, just two tens of percent gain in wages

638
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 13: hourly month on month, which is maybe not as inflationary, right,

639
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:57,440
Speaker 13: So it is kind of like this win win. And

640
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 13: while the market freaked out at that headline payroll's number initially,

641
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 13: I think maybe it realized that the inflation read wasn't

642
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 13: so bad, so maybe don't freak out as much.

643
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 1: That's that was Jason Furman's think piece earlier. We can

644
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,760
Speaker 1: keep growing like crazy as long as wages don't spiral. Yeah,

645
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 1: maybe the markets will feel that way. But Anna Wong

646
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:17,400
Speaker 1: also told us next month and I can look like this,

647
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 1: we're about to go off a cliff when it comes

648
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,439
Speaker 1: to jobs. So you know, we're waiting for an update

649
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 1: from the UAW and that's going to play into this too.

650
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:27,399
Speaker 13: Absolutely. Bloomberg Economics, Anawong and the team says, if all

651
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:30,840
Speaker 13: one hundred and fifty thousand UAW workers eventually go on strike,

652
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 13: it could mean the loss of seven hundred and sixty

653
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 13: thousand because of all those ripple secondary effects.

654
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 1: Imagine five jobs lost for every striking worker. That's what

655
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 1: that cooks down to. And it really makes us realize

656
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 1: and remember how much ancillary business is supported by one

657
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 1: hundred percent all of these folks who are potentially going

658
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 1: to be on a picket line. I mentioned. The President

659
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 1: talked about this earlier before we bring in Lisa Camuso Miller.

660
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 1: He was taking a victory lap. He talked about the

661
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: always the line his dad told him about the dignity

662
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:02,320
Speaker 1: of having a job. And then they got to the numbers.

663
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 3: The unemployment rate I stayed below four percent for twenty

664
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 3: months in a row, the longest stretch in fifty years.

665
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 3: We've achieved a seventy year low and unemployment rate for women,

666
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 3: record lows and unemployment for African Americans and Hispanic workers

667
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 3: and people with disabilities, folks who have been left behind

668
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 3: and previous recoveries have left behind for too long. We

669
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 3: have the highest share of working age Americans in the

670
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 3: workforce in twenty years.

671
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 1: So this is a pretty good story for him to tell.

672
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: He says, by the way, that's no accident. That's Bidenomics.

673
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 1: But if the recession hits, that also wouldn't be an accident.

674
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:41,720
Speaker 13: Right, Timing is everything.

675
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, Furman said that too. They can't thund the scale

676
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:47,799
Speaker 1: at the White House. There's no advice for the president here.

677
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 1: You're either going to have a bad bit of timing,

678
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 1: or maybe, as Anna Wong says, that recession happens at

679
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 1: the end of this year and he's in the clear

680
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 1: for a campaign cycle for all of these are possible.

681
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 13: Perhaps, And of course he's also speaking at the White

682
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 13: House at a time where there's other tumultuous things happening

683
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 13: in the economy to strike. Obviously, he's very supportive of

684
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 13: the UAW and what they are doing, but also could

685
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 13: be looking down the barrel of another government shutdown potentially

686
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 13: come November seventeenth, with the discord you're seeing in the

687
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:17,800
Speaker 13: House of Representatives at the moment.

688
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I was just talking to Rick and Genie

689
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 1: about this. November seventeen. You just said the date that's

690
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 1: when he might be in San Francisco meeting with President

691
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 1: She at the Apex Efference. So are you telling me

692
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:31,400
Speaker 1: he's going to get on a plane leave Washington in

693
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,879
Speaker 1: the middle of that to go meet with a foreign leader.

694
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 1: They're going to have to maybe think about that.

695
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 13: Well, remember when he got on a plane in the

696
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 13: middle of the debt ceiling.

697
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 1: Absolutely true abroad and we asked that question. Yet it depends.

698
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 1: I guess how important this meeting is. You leave for

699
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 1: a day. It shouldn't be that big of a thing.

700
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 1: But it's just it's all perception. So the President was

701
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,799
Speaker 1: asked about the speaker's battle. You're not going to walk

702
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 1: into a room full of reporters at the White House

703
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 1: and not have this come up. I will tell you,

704
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 1: Kayley Again, he seemed exhausted today. I know that this

705
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 1: is something that some folks are concerned about. He paused

706
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 1: a number of times, lengthy pauses thinking. She even said

707
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 1: at one point, I need to get the words right.

708
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 1: But he did speak to the speaker.

709
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:18,919
Speaker 3: Look, whomever the House speaker is, I'm going to try

710
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 3: to work with they control half the Congress and is

711
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,319
Speaker 3: you're going to try to work with him. There some

712
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 3: people I imagine it could be easy to work with

713
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 3: than others. But whoever the speaker is, I'll try.

714
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:32,359
Speaker 4: To work with.

715
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 1: I think he's talking about Jim Jordan there. Maybe not

716
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 1: as easy as Steve Scalise. Perhaps I don't know. I

717
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 1: can't wait to hear what Lisa Kamosa Miller has in mind.

718
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 1: Think of how much has changed since we talked to Lisa,

719
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 1: like five minutes ago. We have an endorsement Lisa, welcome

720
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:52,799
Speaker 1: back from Donald Trump. We have an on again now

721
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:57,720
Speaker 1: off again televised debate apparently being scheduled between Scalise and Jordan.

722
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 1: By the way, Trump is backing Jim Jordan and might

723
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 1: even show up on Tuesday. According to our conversation yesterday

724
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 1: with Byron Donald's is this getting more chaotic with time?

725
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 6: You know? I think there's two tracks in the speaker's race,

726
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 6: and this comes from conversations I've had over the course

727
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,360
Speaker 6: of the last twenty four hours. The Jim Jordan factor

728
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:23,959
Speaker 6: is definitely interesting. He's never been in leadership in terms

729
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 6: of like being the speakers, sweet or any of those areas,

730
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 6: so folks are curious about him, but also still very wary,

731
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:34,279
Speaker 6: especially because of his close ties to Trump, but he's

732
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 6: having conversations with all of the right organizations in terms

733
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 6: of like Main Street and Freedom Caucus and all of

734
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 6: the other factors inside of the House. The other factor here,

735
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 6: and it does feel like Jordan right now, momentum is

736
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 6: on his side, no question. But the fact that Steve

737
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 6: Sclbies and Tom Emmer have teamed up together on a ticket,

738
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,400
Speaker 6: the two of them are so well liked right now,

739
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 6: if I had to guess, two hundred and eighteen votes

740
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 6: is definitely more favorable in that camp than it is

741
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 6: Jim Jordan. Now, you know, and I know that five

742
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 6: minutes from now that could all change, But that is

743
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 6: what we're seeing and what we're hearing right now from

744
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 6: Capitol Hill.

745
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 13: Well, of course, there's another name in the mix as

746
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 13: well who hasn't decided either way whether or not to

747
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 13: formally toss his hat in the ring, Lisa, and that's

748
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 13: Congressman Kevin Hearn. He actually posted on X earlier today,

749
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:23,840
Speaker 13: so he still hasn't made a decision on his candidacy

750
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 13: for speaker, but he went on to say he's not

751
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 13: going to participate in the debate. I think this is

752
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,319
Speaker 13: one of the contributing factors to that now kind of

753
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:33,439
Speaker 13: imploding as an idea. He went on though, to say,

754
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 13: we need to make this decision as a conference, not

755
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 13: on TV. The Republican Conference needs a family discussion. Lisa,

756
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 13: it's really hard to see the Republican Conference right now

757
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:43,800
Speaker 13: as a family.

758
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 6: I mean, I don't know about your family, but dysfunction

759
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:51,280
Speaker 6: definitely is part of the family situation in the world.

760
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 6: But this family needs like therapy and they need a

761
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:59,399
Speaker 6: lot of work. I will say this though, I think

762
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 6: Hearn is not a real candidate. I think McHenry is

763
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 6: definitely not a real candidate. I think that the two

764
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 6: candidates that are emerging right now and for sure will

765
00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:11,720
Speaker 6: be the two are Jordan and Scalise. And the conference

766
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 6: hates the idea about a televised debate because it makes

767
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 6: this more of a circus. This already is super embarrassing.

768
00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 6: It's not terribly helpful. Last time we did this was

769
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 6: in nineteen ten. Guess what in nineteen twelve, the Republicans

770
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 6: lost control of the House. If we keep it up

771
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:29,920
Speaker 6: and we keep looking like petulant toddlers, the voters are

772
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 6: going to respond. So we have work to do. And

773
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 6: by the way, November seventeenth is like a minute away.

774
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 6: We have got to fund the government. This stopped all momentum.

775
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 6: After the CR passed. There were bills that were in

776
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,399
Speaker 6: the process that were going to get past appropriations bills

777
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,840
Speaker 6: for the first time ever. We were making strides, the

778
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 6: conference was working together well, and then all of a sudden,

779
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 6: this motion to vacate happens. Kevin McCarthy is out and

780
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:57,719
Speaker 6: we are tossed into chaos again. So this alone has

781
00:40:57,760 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 6: stopped that momentum, and now we look get another shutdown,

782
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:02,760
Speaker 6: and this one I think could be worse.

783
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:06,800
Speaker 1: We should mention the headlines that you just put in

784
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,800
Speaker 1: front of me here Kaylee, while we're talking to Lisa Miller,

785
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 1: the UAW it looks like is going to be at

786
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 1: least maintaining, if not escalating strikes against GM, but not

787
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:20,399
Speaker 1: Ford in Staalantis. We're still waiting to hear from Sean

788
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 1: Fain on this.

789
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:23,319
Speaker 13: Yeah, this is according to people familiar with the matter

790
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 13: who have spoken to our colleagues here at Bloomberg. But

791
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 13: remember Ford in Stalantis each already have been spared at

792
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 13: one time. GM has not been spared any escalation.

793
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 1: Thus far mercy from Mary Bara.

794
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:35,319
Speaker 13: None at all. And remember GM said earlier this week

795
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 13: this strike has already cost them two hundred million dollars.

796
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 13: They were securing a six billion dollar line of credit

797
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 13: to help protect themselves, and it looks like they may

798
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:45,240
Speaker 13: get hit a little harder. According to our reporting, UAW

799
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:49,719
Speaker 13: is considering a plan to strike the GMSUV plant in Arlington, Texas. So,

800
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 13: of course we'll continue to follow this as Sean Fain

801
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:53,279
Speaker 13: starts his live stream.

802
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 1: There we go to Texas potentially next. I appreciate that, Kaylee.

803
00:41:57,080 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 1: We'll let you know, keep your eyes on the terminal.

804
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 1: The headlines will let you know what's going on with

805
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 1: this story. Obviously, as we spent some time with Lisa

806
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 1: Camuso Miller, you mentioned the family. I thought there were

807
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 1: five families. Wasn't that the whole narrative of the Republican Ledhouse.

808
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 1: It's who can navigate the five families? Lisa Camusa Miller,

809
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 1: you're from New Jersey. You get this.

810
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 6: I do, I do, I do, But also this, this

811
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 6: is more than five families.

812
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 1: It's hard to keep track.

813
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 6: What's interesting to me is there's been a lot of

814
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:39,280
Speaker 6: reporting about the various blocks. Right, So, there was discussion

815
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 6: yesterday in the media about how Congressman Jordan had gone

816
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 6: to the Texas Delegation and had gone to the Main

817
00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 6: Street Coalition and had gone to and Scalice obviously is

818
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:52,360
Speaker 6: doing the same. He's on the phone, he's working the phones.

819
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:54,080
Speaker 6: Nobody knows how to do that better than him and

820
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:59,320
Speaker 6: Tom Emmer. But what is different now is that those

821
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 6: block used to vote all together. They used to be

822
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 6: like they would move as one, and that is no

823
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 6: longer the case. So going to the Texas Delegation is

824
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,840
Speaker 6: very smart because it's a huge chunk of members and

825
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:16,320
Speaker 6: a huge block. But they'll be split. They'll be fifty

826
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 6: to fifty. I mean half will go to Scalise and

827
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:20,480
Speaker 6: half will go to Jordan. It will not be a

828
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 6: full block of voters. And that's what's different here is

829
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 6: that this is not the same race and it's not

830
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 6: the same fight. But I think the one thing that

831
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 6: makes the conference look smart and strategic is that they

832
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:35,839
Speaker 6: not go to the floor before they know who has

833
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 6: two hundred and eighteen votes, because we cannot have another

834
00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:41,319
Speaker 6: repeat of what we saw in the beginning of the year.

835
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:42,759
Speaker 6: We have to get back to work.

836
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:45,759
Speaker 13: Yeah, I don't think anyone is eager to go through

837
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 13: another fifteen rounds and four days of trying to get

838
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 13: someone the gavel. But it raises the question, Lisa, just

839
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 13: how long it's going to take before this gets to

840
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:55,319
Speaker 13: the floor. I mean, we could be looking at weeks

841
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:57,320
Speaker 13: and to your point, we are up against a deadline.

842
00:43:57,360 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 13: That November seventeen deadline is like basic just a second away.

843
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 13: Can you also just kind of talk about the influence

844
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 13: of former President Trump here? As Joe mentioned Jim Jordan

845
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:11,320
Speaker 13: endorsed by the former president. Last night, Trump was teasing

846
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 13: the idea of coming to Capitol Hill next week. We'll

847
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 13: see if it happens, but like, how much influence does

848
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 13: he have on the conference at this point?

849
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 6: This is a bit of a gamble, I think for

850
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:23,920
Speaker 6: the president and for the former president. And here's why.

851
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:28,400
Speaker 6: I know that those eight that all voted together against

852
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 6: Kevin McCarthy are with likely with Trump, but there is

853
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 6: a whole section of moderates that are not. And can

854
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 6: you imagine how embarrassing this would be if this was

855
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 6: another loss for the president. This, to me is the

856
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 6: narrative that so many of those other candidates that have

857
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 6: been in those candidate forums the debates have been pointing

858
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 6: to is that Donald Trump has a record of losing,

859
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:57,640
Speaker 6: and there's one thing that Republicans really want in twenty

860
00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:01,759
Speaker 6: four and that's to win. So this alone could very

861
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:04,719
Speaker 6: well be a litmus test for how next November could look.

862
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:06,960
Speaker 6: I know we're seeing numbers, and I know Trump is

863
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 6: the front runner right now, but this is yet another

864
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:15,879
Speaker 6: It's yet another cut in the erosion of his candidacy,

865
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 6: and it adds to the narrative that he's a loser.

866
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 6: So that alone is interesting to me. I do think

867
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:25,719
Speaker 6: it helps though, because I think that because he's the

868
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:29,279
Speaker 6: front runner, he's raising the most money. People see that

869
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 6: too as an advantage. So right now, Kailee, I'm not

870
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 6: sure all the way if it's going to be helpful

871
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:38,239
Speaker 6: or hurtful. But I do think that when that was

872
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 6: announced yesterday that he was with Jordan, that that really

873
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 6: was that really set his momentum on course for success,

874
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 6: because it's good positive news inside the conference that the

875
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:51,640
Speaker 6: president's going to be the former president's going to be

876
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 6: with him if he's the speaker. But the other piece

877
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:57,920
Speaker 6: of this that doesn't ever get mentioned is that he's

878
00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 6: not terribly loyal. I mean, we remember how he talked

879
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 6: about the former speaker, right, and he said nothing. When

880
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 6: the speaker was about to be voted out, he never

881
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 6: spoke up. I mean, his loyalty is to himself and

882
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 6: himself alone, and that I think is the thing that

883
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 6: people inside the Republican Conference see and they see as

884
00:46:19,160 --> 00:46:21,320
Speaker 6: a liability. I think they want to be with people

885
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:24,279
Speaker 6: like Tom Emmer. Put every single one of those House

886
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 6: Republicans in their seats. I mean, he understands the districts.

887
00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:32,120
Speaker 6: He nobody is a better collaborator, and no one delivered

888
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:34,719
Speaker 6: the past. All the wins that we gave to Kevin

889
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 6: McCarthy a speaker came because Tom Emmer knows how to

890
00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:42,479
Speaker 6: build and rally around an issue, and that is that's

891
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:44,320
Speaker 6: politics tactically that works well.

892
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 1: I'd you like to have Lisa Kamussa Miller call you

893
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:51,240
Speaker 1: a loser on Bloomberg. That's gotta be an experience, Lisa.

894
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 1: Great to see you. Thank you, the former communications director

895
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:56,200
Speaker 1: for the RNC, bringing experience in wisdom.

896
00:46:56,239 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 2: As always, you're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on Catch

897
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 2: the program live weekdays at one eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

898
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 2: the tune in app, Bloomberg dot com and.

899
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 7: The Bloomberg Business app.

900
00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

901
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:16,040
Speaker 2: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

902
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:22,680
Speaker 1: Today's the day. Fat Bear Week. One of the casualties

903
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:26,200
Speaker 1: that could have come from a government shutdown which didn't

904
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 1: end up happening lest weekend as many thought, including us,

905
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 1: One of the casualties would have been Fat Bear Week.

906
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:34,799
Speaker 13: Would have been a travesty.

907
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 1: Because you know, they were to close the parks. And

908
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 1: it's the National Park Service I believe that runs this

909
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:45,520
Speaker 1: Fat Bear Week competition. It's basically like a reality.

910
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:47,959
Speaker 13: Show for fat bears.

911
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:54,800
Speaker 1: Did you know that's a big bear right there. Adult

912
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 1: male bears average between seven and nine hundred pounds middle

913
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 1: of the summer. By this time they can top twelve

914
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:06,319
Speaker 1: hundred pounds as they prepare for hibernation. And this is

915
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:13,400
Speaker 1: an online contest. Somebody pick your favorite fat bear. Yes,

916
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:15,400
Speaker 1: seven four seven I think was the name of the

917
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:16,359
Speaker 1: bear that won last year.

918
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 13: It was he tipped the scales at an estimated fourteen

919
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:21,320
Speaker 13: hundred pounds.

920
00:48:21,400 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 2: Wow.

921
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:26,200
Speaker 13: I encourage all of our listeners to go google who

922
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:28,359
Speaker 13: is the fattest bear? You will see some.

923
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 1: Picture some very fully impressive, very fat bear four three

924
00:48:32,719 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 1: five Holly. Another one large adult female bear the park

925
00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 1: Service website compares to a lightly toasted marshmallow in both

926
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 1: color and shape. It's like a fat bear four to

927
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:47,440
Speaker 1: three six Holly this time of year is very fat

928
00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:50,800
Speaker 1: with grizzled blonde fur. It's kind of like a watching

929
00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 1: the Kennel Club Dog Show. Just really fat bear is

930
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:55,680
Speaker 1: running around. Did you pick one?

931
00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 13: Producer Brendan writes in, if I get hugged by a

932
00:48:58,120 --> 00:48:59,840
Speaker 13: fat bear, it might be my last hug.

933
00:49:00,400 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 1: That's because he was watching cocaine.

934
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:05,880
Speaker 7: Uh.

935
00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:08,239
Speaker 1: Matt Miller was pretty up on Fat Bear Week as well.

936
00:49:08,239 --> 00:49:09,799
Speaker 1: Are you in touch with him on this? Because I

937
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 1: think he listens to the show. I think he's listening

938
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:11,959
Speaker 1: right now.

939
00:49:12,280 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 13: It's probably only a matter of seconds before he writes in,

940
00:49:14,880 --> 00:49:17,879
Speaker 13: he probably already voted for the fattest bear. I'm gonna

941
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:18,720
Speaker 13: go do that now.

942
00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:21,920
Speaker 1: For eighty otis apparently running hot here in the competition

943
00:49:22,480 --> 00:49:28,360
Speaker 1: as he pursues one last tasty morsel before all right,

944
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:31,600
Speaker 1: we're gonna go away. Now, we're gonna go away. I'm

945
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:33,520
Speaker 1: Joe Matthew with Kayley Lines. I'll meet you on balance

946
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:37,480
Speaker 1: of power. Indeed, thanks for listening to the Sound on podcast.

947
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:40,640
Speaker 1: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

948
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:43,160
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. And you can

949
00:49:43,160 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 1: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one

950
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:50,720
Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com