1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:03,080 Speaker 1: Joining us now is the laureate and there is a 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:08,039 Speaker 1: ned Philps Paul Krugman distinction. In the year where Professor 3 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:12,559 Speaker 1: Krugman took the trophy, he was the sole winner. I 4 00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:17,280 Speaker 1: can't tell you within modern economics a special that is. 5 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:21,560 Speaker 1: I've been a fierce defender of his international economics, retiring 6 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: from the New York Times colin where he's been a 7 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 1: lightning rod of debate, and we are honored that we 8 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: can speak our international economics forward with Paul Krugman. Paul, 9 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining Bloomberg this morning. If 10 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 1: you had a cup of coffee in mar Lago with 11 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:41,159 Speaker 1: President elect Trump this morning, how would you brief President Trump? 12 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:46,200 Speaker 2: I would ask, what on earth do you think you're doing? 13 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 2: You know, it's we're looking at a US economy that 14 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 2: this morning's Jaws report was really good. Everything is kind 15 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 2: of coming up roses. It's soft landing everywhere. And yet 16 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:02,319 Speaker 2: he's prepared, or claims he preparing to go on this 17 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 2: trade war against everybody. And the question really is why, 18 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:12,679 Speaker 2: what is it? Why do you want to do something 19 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:16,479 Speaker 2: so disruptive when you're inheriting an economy that is really 20 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:17,320 Speaker 2: looking pretty good. 21 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:19,399 Speaker 3: I'm looking Paul Krugman. 22 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: It's something you taught with a piece of chalk at 23 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 1: Princeton and at City College. The basic idea here is 24 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: a tariff chart, which is the microeconomics in dynamics. We 25 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: talked to Richard Clara the other day about the dead 26 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:38,840 Speaker 1: weight loss of tariffs for our listeners, the magnitude of terroriffs. 27 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: Does it matter or is there just simply a dead 28 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 1: weight loss to each American citizen? 29 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 2: Oh? No, the magnitude. I mean, one of the things 30 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 2: that you learn from at studying the economics of tariffs 31 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 2: is that tariffs at low rates do very very little harm. 32 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 2: Would we had an average terraff of something like two 33 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 2: to three percent, We do at the moment coming into 34 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 2: this that if you ask you know, how much difference 35 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:11,119 Speaker 2: would it make if we got that down to zero, 36 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 2: The answer is basically invisible. But if you go from 37 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 2: five percent to twenty five percent, which is what Trump's 38 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:25,919 Speaker 2: talking about for everybody and sixty percent for China, then 39 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 2: it's roughly speaking, we think that the losses are to 40 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 2: go up roughly as the square of the terriff freight. 41 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 2: So with Trump talking not about a modest increase in tariffs, 42 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 2: not about a terriffs on a few products, but across 43 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:46,959 Speaker 2: the board trade war sweet Holly Tarff levels that starts 44 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:48,920 Speaker 2: to become a really, really big deal. 45 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 1: Paul, I've been If you're in folks, the textbook on 46 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: this is Krugman Opsfeld. 47 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:53,240 Speaker 3: It's all again. 48 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:56,079 Speaker 1: You throw Ken rogoff in as well, but Krugman ops Who. 49 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: There's some adult textbooks out there of what Kruman invented 50 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: for international economics. Paul, I've always defended you by saying 51 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:07,679 Speaker 1: the then diagram of Krugman economics and John Taylor economics 52 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 1: at Stanford is pretty pretty tight. Can Kevin Hassett advise 53 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:18,119 Speaker 1: this president towards some form of tariff moderation or sanity? 54 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 2: Kevin Hassett has a history of basically saying whatever I mean. 55 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 2: He's been a loyalist and a court here. I would 56 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 2: be really shocked if he goes to you know, Tarras 57 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 2: appears to be a real Trump obsession, and I'd be 58 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 2: shocked if has it, or actually anybody stood up to 59 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 2: Trump and said, mister President, you're thinking about this all wrong. 60 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 2: You know, I've been writing for listeners. I'm retired from 61 00:03:56,480 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 2: the Times, but not from life and I'm writing almost 62 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 2: every day on my substack. 63 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 3: How do we your substick? 64 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: He needs to make a buck on this, That's what 65 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 1: it is, Paul, Well, at the moment, how do they 66 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 1: still see your writing as you've exited The Times? 67 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 2: Ol Krugman dot substack dot dot com. You just google 68 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 2: Krugman substack and you'll find it. And look, you know, 69 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:22,160 Speaker 2: I'm free to it's a newsletter slash blog. And I mean, 70 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 2: and one what I wrote the other day was we're 71 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 2: seeing a continual dynamic where people who claim to be 72 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 2: close to Trump but remain anonymous tell news you know, 73 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 2: source of newspaper writers, Hey, he's not really as crazy 74 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 2: as he sounds. And then Trump immediately reacts with a 75 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,280 Speaker 2: truth social post saying yes, I am. 76 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:43,600 Speaker 3: So. 77 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 2: It does look like we're really talking about, uh, you know, 78 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:49,480 Speaker 2: in tarrace on a scale that we really have not seen. 79 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 2: We're talking about a reversal of really ninety years of 80 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 2: US policy. Yeah, trying to. 81 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 4: Where I wanted to go, professor. I mean, you know, 82 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 4: I grew up on Global Wall Street, where and many 83 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:05,279 Speaker 4: of our listeners and viewers as well of internationalism being 84 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 4: a fundamental business tenant. Now that's taken a back seat 85 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 4: here over the last ten years. Is internationalism dead? 86 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:16,600 Speaker 2: Well, probably in the form it was, Yeah, I mean 87 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:20,719 Speaker 2: a lot of this was USA geminy, and we thought 88 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:26,360 Speaker 2: that a more prosperous, peaceful world was in our interest. 89 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 2: You know, what was good for the world was good 90 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 2: for America, and we thought that freer trade was good 91 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:35,479 Speaker 2: for America, and we led the way. We built a 92 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:40,279 Speaker 2: world trading system kind of in us, in our own image. 93 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 2: It's very rules bound, legalistic, it's you know, and it worked. 94 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 2: We've managed to get everybody's tariffs down. We got to 95 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 2: a world of pretty close to free trade. We've been 96 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 2: in the last couple of decades. The European Union, which 97 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 2: is not very united many things, but is unified on 98 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 2: trade policy, sort of co manage the system with US. 99 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:10,040 Speaker 2: Now we've gotten much more nationalistic, and even Biden was 100 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 2: pursuing for I think pretty good reasons and pretty seriously 101 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 2: nationalistic policies, specifically on technology and China. But so the 102 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 2: age of full on more globalism is good. That's behind us. 103 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 2: That that really died about a decade ago. But there's 104 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:34,600 Speaker 2: a big difference between saying, Okay, we're going to be 105 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 2: much more selective about this and maybe even be protectionists 106 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:41,720 Speaker 2: here and there and saying, you know, smooth Holly had 107 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 2: the right idea, which is basically what Trump is saying. 108 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:46,840 Speaker 4: Right, So, professor, you know, we had today's a big 109 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 4: jobs day here on a global Wall Street, showing again 110 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 4: the strength of the US labor market. That calls into 111 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 4: question another one of the presidental policies, which is about 112 00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 4: immigration and what to do with the migrants that are 113 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:04,160 Speaker 4: already here. From an economic perspective, what would your how 114 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,479 Speaker 4: would you advise the president on thinking about immigration policy. 115 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 2: I mean, immigration has been one of the great strengths 116 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 2: of the US economy, whatever else you may think about it. 117 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 2: And I mean it's not actually a source of crime 118 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 2: or any of the things that he says, but the 119 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 2: immigration has been a tremendous safety valve, has helped to 120 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 2: contain inflation. And the immigrants, particularly if I might say 121 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 2: undocumented immigrants, they're not evenly spread across the US economy. 122 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 2: There a really critical part of the labor force in 123 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 2: some particular sectors. If you want, if you're worried about 124 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 2: agriculture or meat packing or construction, those are all sectors 125 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 2: where we have an aging The native born population is 126 00:07:56,360 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 2: agent the working age. Native born population is shrinking because 127 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 2: we've had low fertility for a really long time, so 128 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 2: that without immigration we would be basically we would be Japan. 129 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 2: And so from an economic point of view, this is 130 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 2: a hugely This is a tremendous self owned Paul. 131 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 1: Krugman with us. We are thrilled to these with us 132 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 1: here with Cee you and my Qun's Stone Center and 133 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 1: socio Economic Inequality among others, and affiliated also with Yellows, 134 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 1: I should say, and of course he years at Princeton 135 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 1: as well. I talked to him about his first paper 136 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 1: once at Yale, which was in star Trek. 137 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 3: This is a few years ago, right, yeah, just after Ricardo. 138 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 3: But the answer is the laureate Paul Krugman with us. 139 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 1: Thank you for the huge response to Professor Krugman with 140 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 1: us this morning. Paul. 141 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 3: I've said this before, but I. 142 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:48,439 Speaker 1: Guess there can be a tour of duty when you 143 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:52,559 Speaker 1: win a second Nobel Prize. You deserve a second Nobel 144 00:08:52,640 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: Prize for your persistent discussion of wages and monopsony in America, Folks. 145 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 1: Monopsony the model is a rubber plantation in Malaysia where 146 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:10,199 Speaker 1: the rubber plantation sets the price because they have power 147 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 1: over all the farmers and the rubber trees in the 148 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:20,199 Speaker 1: manufacturing process. Professor Krugman, how is monopsony in America affecting 149 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 1: our listeners in our viewers on YouTube? 150 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 2: Oh gosh, I mean, I'm in a way what it's 151 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 2: telling you. I mean that the main monopsony issue on 152 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 2: wages is is that it's okay to raise the minimum wage. 153 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 2: I mean, is this is where we really started to 154 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 2: take it seriously when you first had the work by 155 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 2: Card and Krueger, now replicated by many people, which says 156 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 2: that local minimum wage increases don't actually reduce employments. It's 157 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 2: it you eq on one on one unless you well, 158 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 2: I have to say, even in my own textbook, we 159 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 2: do talk through how a minimum wage can reduce employment, 160 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 2: but it doesn't actually seem to happen in the United States. Now, 161 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 2: that's because minimum wages are low in the United States. 162 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 2: And you know, if if you set the minimum wage 163 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 2: at forty dollars an hour, even I would accept that 164 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 2: that would have some employment consequences. But so that's the 165 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 2: main place where it hurts. Although if you are you know, 166 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:29,880 Speaker 2: a small small supplier or something trying to pedal your 167 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:34,080 Speaker 2: stuff on Amazon. The fact you know that you've got 168 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 2: a giant Beza size monopsimist certainly affects your business. 169 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 1: I mean, it's very interesting to see Paul Krewman and 170 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 1: then the conservatives listening. I'm going to frame this, Paul 171 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 1: is a liberality in a way, is a locke in 172 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 1: individualism of conservative theory in America. Should we be more 173 00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 1: like Germany flat on their back? Should we be more 174 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:02,480 Speaker 1: like Sweden? Should we be more like France? 175 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, ideally we should be more like Denmark, 176 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:11,319 Speaker 2: which is a place that does strong welfare states, strong unions, 177 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 2: and does it well. It's you know, everybody's got. One 178 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 2: of the things. I've spent many years teaching a course 179 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:26,199 Speaker 2: versus Princeton then than at CuNi on the ecnology of 180 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 2: the welfare state comparing different countries, and one of the 181 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 2: things you learn, first of all, the United States has 182 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:33,720 Speaker 2: a much more we have a much bigger welfare state 183 00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 2: than we like to imagine, but it's much smaller than 184 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:39,840 Speaker 2: what European countries have. But there's no country that does 185 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:45,320 Speaker 2: everything right. US healthcare is a nightmare. US retirement system 186 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 2: is actually pretty good. France, it's exactly the opposite. So 187 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:53,679 Speaker 2: it's not as simple more government is good. I mean, 188 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 2: I think their conservatives always think that less government is good. 189 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 2: Liberals progressives never think that more government is automatically good. 190 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 2: But there are certainly things where we should be doing more, 191 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:08,679 Speaker 2: and obviously that's on hold over the next few years. 192 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:11,959 Speaker 2: But there are lots We can learn a lot from 193 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 2: other countries. So that's one thing I would say to 194 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 2: you as an international economist. The biggest problem with Americans 195 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 2: is that we don't actually seem to believe the rest 196 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:23,400 Speaker 2: of the world exists, and we don't think that we 197 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 2: can learn lessons from things that other countries do. 198 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 4: Right, Professor, Most of the market participants that we speak to, 199 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 4: particularly over the last several months, and they see a 200 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 4: data point like today's non farm payils. So Nicoel, like 201 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:39,960 Speaker 4: the FEDES, engineered a pretty solid soft landing. What concerns you? 202 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 4: What worries you about this US economy right here? 203 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 2: I think the US economy as of right now is 204 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 2: in very good shape. Okay, I am worried. You know, 205 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:57,839 Speaker 2: I've been around a while and the whole ai fewer 206 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:03,079 Speaker 2: and although the money being thrown that that technology gives 207 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:08,560 Speaker 2: me definite nineteen ninety nine vibes the sense that we 208 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:12,200 Speaker 2: may be having even if there's even if the technology 209 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 2: does do a lot of good stuff, and there's some 210 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 2: indications that it will, the valuations look awfully high, and 211 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 2: you can very easily imagine a kind of two thousand 212 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 2: and two thousand and one type. But the biggest concern 213 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:29,000 Speaker 2: for policy, I mean, if if you actually believe that 214 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 2: Trump is going to do what he promised in the 215 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 2: campaign with these massive talents, mass deportations, and let's not 216 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 2: forget taking away a lot of the feral reserves independence 217 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:47,319 Speaker 2: we are, it's not at all hard to see us gratuitously. 218 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 2: I mean, we're in good shape right now. But we 219 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 2: could very easily have a gratuitous outbreak of stagflation of 220 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:57,319 Speaker 2: America and it will be entirely coming top down from 221 00:13:57,440 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 2: the from the White House very quickly. 222 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 1: Heref scrub Paul, we got to do this, Sircrubman won't 223 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 1: come back the substack this morning. The real threat, the 224 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 1: real threat of fake numbers. 225 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:09,960 Speaker 3: Paul Krugman, are. 226 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 1: You suggesting the president and his administration will cook the books? 227 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 2: I think that's a very high possibility if you believe 228 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 2: what I'm saying about inflation. Inflation is actually going to 229 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 2: go up substantially. And do you really imagine that Trump 230 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 2: will just sit there at and not say these are 231 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 2: fake numbers, it's fake news and put pressure on the 232 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 2: Bureau of Labor Statistics to produce better numbers. I mean, 233 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 2: we've seen populist regimes do that all over the world. 234 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 2: Why imagine that it won't happen here? And I know 235 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 2: that people, you know, people who've had long careers at 236 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 2: the Bureau of Labor Statistics are really worried about this. 237 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 2: So I'm just saying, you know, flag this. This is 238 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 2: something to watch. 239 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: Paul, generous of your time. Thank you so much again. 240 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:52,960 Speaker 1: Paul Krugman in a New Life out. Do you got 241 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 1: it from Adam Two's substack? Yeah, maybe we should do 242 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 1: a substance. 243 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 3: And we should do that. Paul Krugman, thank you so much. 244 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 1: Don't know about Laureate of Princeton always in Cuney as well.