1 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:12,600 Speaker 1: Welcome, welcome, Welcome back to the Bob Left Sets podcast. 2 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: My guest today is the legendary pollster John Zogby. John, 3 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: we scheduled this podcast a couple of weeks ago, and 4 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 1: in the interim the Iran War started and your schedule 5 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 1: got crazy. So when a crisis like this happens, tell 6 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 1: me how your world changes. 7 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:36,479 Speaker 2: Well, for starters, this media media calling around the clock 8 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:42,919 Speaker 2: literally New Zealand, Ireland, Malaysia yesterday. But you know, good 9 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 2: bit here in the United States, so that takes some time. 10 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 2: And then secondly, a little less so these days because 11 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 2: much more of our work as private sector and you know, 12 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 2: not non governmental agencies and so on. But in the 13 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 2: day it was not uncommon for one of my media 14 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 2: clients New York Post, Reuters, NBC News, Hey, can you 15 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 2: get on the phones right away or can you get 16 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 2: us a poll in twenty four hours? 17 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 1: Okay, these media outlets are calling. What are they going 18 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 1: to ask and what information do you have to give them? 19 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 2: Well, my expertise is not to discuss presidential strategy or 20 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:30,120 Speaker 2: any of those sorts of things. Public opinion, what do 21 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 2: the American people think? And I am fortunate that I 22 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 2: can go beyond the guys at the barbershop or the 23 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 2: folks in the grocery line. I can take samples, which 24 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 2: I did. Interestingly, my son and I are together, and 25 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 2: we pulled the American people after the State of the 26 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 2: Union message, remember that one. 27 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 3: That was oh yeah last week. 28 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, And so we pulled Wednesday and Thursday night then 29 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 2: and released a on Friday morning. We asked a question 30 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 2: about Iran. Do you support the president's handling of Iran? 31 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 2: And it was tied forty five percent supported, forty five 32 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 2: percent opposed. And then we went to bed Friday night 33 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 2: thinking that, hey, there's some movement in the negotiations, right, 34 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 2: and the negotiations are going to start again today when 35 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 2: reality intervened and we went to war. There is a 36 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 2: poll out, but it's not by us, and the poll 37 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 2: is far different than you would find normally when a 38 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 2: president announces a war. This time, twenty seven percent support 39 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 2: going to war with Iran a military action in Iran, 40 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 2: and forty nine percent the pose. The rest are not sure. 41 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 2: That's Reuters and a company called Ipsos based in France. 42 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 1: Okay, State of the Union happens, You're doing a pull. 43 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 1: What questions are you asking what information are you trying 44 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 1: to clean? 45 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 2: Well, for starters, we tried to stick close to the 46 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 2: president's speech, and so we want to know overall, do 47 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:23,639 Speaker 2: you support or oppose his job as president, the job 48 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 2: he's doing as president. And of course we ask it 49 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:31,919 Speaker 2: with a scale, so strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat opposed, 50 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 2: strongly opposed, so we can get levels of intensity to 51 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 2: which are very important, not just majorities or pluralities. But 52 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 2: then how about is handling an immigration, crime and public safety, healthcare, 53 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 2: the environment and so on. And what we found, not 54 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 2: surprisingly at all, because this is the state of our world, 55 00:03:56,360 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 2: is that the president is upside down. In all of 56 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 2: his numbers these there are more people who are opposed 57 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 2: to him than support him. The one exception this time 58 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 2: was on immigration, where this time he was forty seven 59 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 2: percent support and forty five percent oppose. We have been 60 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 2: seeing him upside down, but close like that. But the 61 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 2: nation is not simply split or hyper polarized. It is 62 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 2: divided in a way that we have not seen before 63 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 2: in our lifetime. 64 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 1: Go a little deeper. How is it divided in a 65 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:41,840 Speaker 1: way we haven't seen before? 66 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 2: So you know, there used to be some flexibility you 67 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:52,200 Speaker 2: know there were conservative Democrats. There were Believe it or not, 68 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:56,279 Speaker 2: I'm here in New York and here in California. 69 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 3: I think. 70 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 2: There were liberal Republicans Rocketype, Yeah, Rockefeller is the first 71 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:07,720 Speaker 2: name that comes to mind. There aren't, make no mistake 72 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 2: about it. There are no conservative Democrats, there are no 73 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 2: liberal Republicans, and so essentially we have a partisan split 74 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:23,920 Speaker 2: and little to no flexibility on those numbers. We are seeing, however, 75 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:28,599 Speaker 2: that the president's support among Republicans is that about in 76 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:33,280 Speaker 2: our last poll last week eighty three eighty four percent. 77 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 2: Usually could expect ninety to ninety two percent. That's a 78 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:43,280 Speaker 2: drop that we're watching. By the same token, there are 79 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:48,599 Speaker 2: growing numbers of independents, and independence are very difficult to 80 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:54,039 Speaker 2: pigeonhole as a unit. There are so many different sources 81 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 2: and grades of independence, but as taken as a whole, 82 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 2: President has about mid fifties who oppose him on every 83 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 2: issue among independence, although on some issues, notably immigration, crime, 84 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:18,679 Speaker 2: and public safety, it's upwards of sixty sixty one percent 85 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 2: among independents who oppose him. 86 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 1: So tell me about methodology In the old days, Well, 87 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: I'm sure people stopped at people's doors at one point, 88 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: but it was phone. Now people don't pick up their landlines, 89 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 1: then people don't pick up their phones. Then there's text, 90 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 1: there's other companies use polls at the bottom of websites. 91 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:37,920 Speaker 1: How do you do it? 92 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 2: Okay, so I do go back to the days when 93 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 2: we used everybody had a landline and sixty five percent 94 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 2: we're happy to do a poll. That was a response rate, 95 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 2: and we evolved, not surprisingly due to technology and social 96 00:06:56,000 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 2: change in this country, to single digit or low double 97 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 2: digit response rates. And so we were among the pioneers 98 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 2: in developing online polling. And it was a long slog. Basically, 99 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 2: we would gather as many email addresses and a coalition 100 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 2: of the willing as possible, that is, those who would 101 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 2: tell us in our telephone surveys back twenty five years 102 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:26,760 Speaker 2: ago and so on, that they'd be willing to take 103 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 2: a poll. We gathered internally at the turn of the 104 00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 2: millennium about a million one point two million. 105 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 3: At the. 106 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 2: Within a couple of years of email addresses that were 107 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 2: validated demographically and behavioral characteristics. 108 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 1: How do you validate them by telephone? 109 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 2: Interestingly, so when it was one or the other, we 110 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 2: would either use our usual telephone surveys and at the 111 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 2: end ask if they would be willing to take a 112 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 2: survey online and give us an email address, And so 113 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 2: we plottingly collected that way. 114 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 3: Or the other way around. 115 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 2: We would purchase tons of email addresses and have four 116 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 2: servers going at the same time inviting people at random 117 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 2: to sign up to take surveys. And today we have 118 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 2: fifteen million. 119 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:34,319 Speaker 1: Okay, So then you called them and asked them what. 120 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 2: Well if the online surveys, we would send out a 121 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:47,760 Speaker 2: random sampling of the email addresses that we had, and 122 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 2: we would ask them, well, beyond political surveys, but you 123 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 2: know our registered de voter, they're likely to vote, what's 124 00:08:55,640 --> 00:09:01,080 Speaker 2: their party identification? And then we'd get into politically the 125 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 2: president or the governor, whatever our universe was, the mayor, 126 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 2: job performance, job performance on a number of issues, personal 127 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:16,840 Speaker 2: favorability of them, and possible candidates running against them. In 128 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 2: proprietary a private polling for candidates, individuals or retail brands. 129 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 2: We would ask what would move them, what drives you, 130 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 2: what would make you more likely to support, what would 131 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:36,959 Speaker 2: make you more likely to oppose? And if you knew 132 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:40,079 Speaker 2: this about that, would it make you much more likely 133 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 2: somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, much less likely to 134 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 2: support or purchase or whatever. But a typical poll could 135 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 2: be forty fifty questions. 136 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 1: Okay, I have never answered a pull. I remember before 137 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: people meeters, they once mailed a form to us and 138 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 1: you filled out what you watched. So in the people Meter, 139 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:07,320 Speaker 1: of course, being Nielsen in television, the question becomes there's 140 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:13,319 Speaker 1: always a margin of error, But how do you ensure accuracy? 141 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:19,439 Speaker 2: So you start with the sampling procedure. So today talking 142 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 2: about online polls as an example, but the same principles 143 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:28,359 Speaker 2: will hold true for those who are still doing telephone surveys. 144 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 2: Is that we have a list of fifteen million Americans 145 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 2: and who have been validated, and in their entirety they 146 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 2: are representative of the American people demographically. If we're doing 147 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 2: a poll, say we want a thousand likely voters, we 148 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:56,560 Speaker 2: will take what's called a random stratified sample of about 149 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 2: ten thousand email addresses from that fifty million. The keyword 150 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 2: there random. Everybody has to have the same chance of 151 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 2: being selected from that pool as everybody else. And secondly, stratified, 152 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 2: we don't draw them nationally. We draw them by region. 153 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 2: So if thirty percent of our sample is from the south, 154 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 2: a thirty percent of the population or the electorate is 155 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 2: from the south, as an example, then thirty percent of 156 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 2: our pool is from the south, twenty five percent of 157 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 2: the northeast twenty five, twenty six per and so on. 158 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 2: And then we begin the invitation process knowing that we're 159 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 2: targeting regions and knowing after all these years that those 160 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:52,680 Speaker 2: responses will come back within those levels of stratification and 161 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 2: be somewhat somewhat representative of people in those regions by ray, 162 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 2: by age, by educational level, by gender. It's not a 163 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:10,679 Speaker 2: perfect world, so that when those numbers do come in, 164 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 2: there may be some groups that are slightly underrepresented, normally Blacks, Hispanics, 165 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 2: poorer people, normally men, young men. And what we do 166 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 2: is we apply waiting, just simple waiting, to bump them 167 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 2: up to what the expectation is for voter turnout or 168 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 2: for retail shopping the adult population in general. But you never, 169 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:48,720 Speaker 2: let's say, you hardly ever get a situation where you 170 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 2: have way too many women, or way too many whites, 171 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:57,199 Speaker 2: or way too many of any group. The waiting generally 172 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:00,560 Speaker 2: is slight. 173 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 1: Okay, you do a lot of market research. Steve Jobs 174 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:08,839 Speaker 1: famously said he didn't believe in market research because people 175 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 1: didn't know what they wanted until he gave it to them. 176 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,200 Speaker 1: Other people say market research will tell you where you've been, 177 00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 1: but not where you're going. How would you respond to those? 178 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:25,200 Speaker 2: Well, for starters, I've got an Apple phone, so sorry, Steve, 179 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:29,680 Speaker 2: what was the other the other question? 180 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 1: People say that it will tell you where you've been 181 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 1: but not where you're going. 182 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 2: No, Now, we believe in and we do projective polling. Now, look, Bob, 183 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 2: nobody sees the future, at least clearly. But there is 184 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:50,079 Speaker 2: a way of using analytics, and I might add some 185 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 2: good artwork involved too, to ask questions about how would 186 00:13:55,559 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 2: you respond to a certain situation, and from the tabulation 187 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 2: of those responses on how folks would respond, or how 188 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:09,679 Speaker 2: they would anticipate, or how they would behave or how 189 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:14,560 Speaker 2: their minds would change, you get a a reasonable reading 190 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 2: of what people will do under certain circumstances. However, there 191 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 2: are other variables in our world, and so look, I 192 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 2: could have done continued my poll through Friday night about 193 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 2: how do you feel about Trump's handling of Iran? I 194 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 2: did not know that we'd be bombing the hell out 195 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 2: of Iran Saturday morning. 196 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 1: So you're not the only Polster. You have a high 197 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 1: profile amongst the small quadre. What is the special sauce 198 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 1: that you bring to the table? 199 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 2: Indititionally, it was accuracy. That's where I gained my fame. 200 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 2: I got races on the gubernatorial level here in New 201 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 2: York that no one even came close to. I was 202 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 2: hired by the Murdoch Empire, Liberal Democrat that I am. 203 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 2: I'm polling for the New York Post and Early Fox 204 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 2: in ninety five and ninety six. Then I was hired 205 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 2: by the largest news agency in the world, Reuters, and 206 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 2: the Reuter Zogbee Pole was born in nineteen ninety six. 207 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:41,200 Speaker 2: And it did not hurt me at all that my 208 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 2: colleagues at the networks and at the universities were attacking 209 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 2: me because I was standing alone saying that the Clinton 210 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 2: Dole race is a lot closer than people think. And 211 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 2: when the numbers came in and the attacks continued, I 212 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 2: got that race right to anywhere between one to three 213 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 2: tenths of a percent. I'd already gotten some other high 214 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 2: profile ones right and that at. 215 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 3: That point things just soared. 216 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 2: But then I went on to get other races right 217 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 2: and ones that no one else got right in Mexico, 218 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 2: in Israel, in Albania. And now I'm a strategic planner, 219 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 2: and I know that you cannot keep a reputation as 220 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 2: the most accurate polster in the world forever. So that's 221 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 2: when we started to focus on our strategic thinking and 222 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 2: on thought leadership, and a number of books that came 223 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 2: out talking about the future and what we see from 224 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 2: at that point, twenty years of polling, thirty years of polling, 225 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 2: and so on, why. 226 00:16:56,920 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 1: Were you more accurate than your competitors. 227 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:03,440 Speaker 2: There were you know, ninety plus percent of what I 228 00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:08,639 Speaker 2: did was like everybody else. But some of the things 229 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 2: that were different was that I would apply a slight 230 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 2: weight for political party identification. Many of my colleagues don't 231 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 2: believe in that. They called it a trailer variable, something 232 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 2: that's very soft. So look, if I'm for George W. 233 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 2: Bush today, I'm a Republican. If I'm for al Gore tomorrow, 234 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 2: then I'm probably a Democrat. I believe that party is 235 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 2: a lead variable. Many of us are born with it. 236 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 2: Most of us filter our information through our party identification. 237 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:59,359 Speaker 2: And so I found that some of my colleagues were 238 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:06,400 Speaker 2: actually getting much larger fluctuations even on a day by 239 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:12,639 Speaker 2: day basis in their samples. Too many Democrats, too few Republicans. 240 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 2: I had noticed early, and again I'm a liberal Democrat, 241 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:20,919 Speaker 2: but I noticed early a tendency for Democrats to answer 242 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:25,239 Speaker 2: the phone more than Republicans. That's why I feel that 243 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 2: to a great degree. That's the one thing that I 244 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 2: did differently that helped propel. 245 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: Me in the last ten years. Nate Silver has gotten 246 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:41,440 Speaker 1: a lot of notoriety for pull averaging, pull balancing. What's 247 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:42,639 Speaker 1: your opinion on that. 248 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 2: Well, he kind of bounced me out, and so they're 249 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 2: a little bit of bias. 250 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:53,880 Speaker 3: But my sense. 251 00:18:56,119 --> 00:19:03,400 Speaker 2: Is I pull people, I don't poll numbers. I get 252 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 2: a feel for polls. I mean, when when I had 253 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 2: a call center, I would visit the call center during elections, 254 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:16,879 Speaker 2: and what did you hear? What were they really saying? 255 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 2: These are the the telephone callers that I would talk to, 256 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 2: and they would tell me, you know, there were people 257 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 2: who were really soft, there are people who were not 258 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 2: paying attention but intended to vote. There are people who 259 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,960 Speaker 2: are very hard. But I got a sense that those 260 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:39,959 Speaker 2: numbers were really an aggregation of people not simply an 261 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:41,880 Speaker 2: aggregation of numbers. 262 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 3: I think with Nate. 263 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 2: There was too much emphasis on analytics and an algorithm. 264 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 2: That are algorithms that he used that could be applicable 265 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 2: sometimes and not so applicable. I'm sorry at other times, 266 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 2: and then I do feel and you know, I wish 267 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 2: him all the best he's had, all the best. In fact, 268 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 2: that he was a bit too much like Icarus in mythology. 269 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 2: He flew with wax wings too close to the sun, 270 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 2: and that sooner or later, just like Zogby, you get 271 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:29,920 Speaker 2: one wrong and people start looking at you funny. And 272 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 2: I'm not sure he handled it all well. 273 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:38,200 Speaker 1: That well, good analogy. Okay, many people were surprised by 274 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:42,920 Speaker 1: Trump in twenty sixteen. There was less surprise in twenty 275 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: twenty four. But were you surprised based on your numbers? 276 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 2: Well, surprised, yes, of course, But on election night, no, 277 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,919 Speaker 2: And you'll find I didn't poll in twenty sixteen. We 278 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:03,640 Speaker 2: had just started a transition new company after a non 279 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 2: compete for a few years. I sold the original company, 280 00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:10,239 Speaker 2: so we were not in the polling loop. But I 281 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:15,240 Speaker 2: was analyzing the trend lines in the well, the whole election, 282 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 2: but particularly in the last ten days, and there was 283 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 2: clearly a momentum against Hillary Clinton, a momentum towards Donald Trump. 284 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 2: And I published a piece on Forbes in the early 285 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 2: afternoon of election day saying, if anybody knows, if anybody 286 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:39,800 Speaker 2: claims that they know what's going to happen, they're lying 287 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 2: because we don't know what's going to happen. There's a 288 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 2: trend line here that I'm watching. 289 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:49,920 Speaker 1: Okay, couple of questions in twenty twenty four. You may 290 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 1: not have done research, but you're an expert in this area. 291 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:58,160 Speaker 1: If Biden had stepped decide would a Democrat, if there 292 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:04,159 Speaker 1: was a primary process, would they have won? Secondarily, was 293 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 1: Kamala af flawed candidate from minute one? 294 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 2: Those are two very good questions, and we will be 295 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 2: asking them for years. If Biden had stepped aside, and 296 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 2: most importantly, had allowed for a primary system to develop 297 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 2: and for candidates to be out there and for Democrats 298 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 2: to have a real choice, it could have been a 299 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:40,399 Speaker 2: far different election. Was and in fact, we didn't see 300 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 2: since a final break of those battle ground states, and 301 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,119 Speaker 2: many of them until the very end, you know, until 302 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 2: a few days before those were competitive. Secondly, I thought 303 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 2: she was a good candidate. But she had one hundred 304 00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 2: and seven days. Now, those of us who follow politics 305 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:07,640 Speaker 2: very closely, you know, knew Kamila Harris. Anew of Kamala 306 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 2: Harris had followed her career. Yes, there were flaws that 307 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:18,720 Speaker 2: liberals would would not identify with her. Yes, there were flaws. 308 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 2: I believe with Democrats and independence and public opinion about 309 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 2: Gaza shifting that Kamala Harris may have done a bit 310 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 2: better if she had shifted, and probably gotten more younger 311 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 2: voters in the process and more. 312 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 3: Black voters as well. 313 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:47,120 Speaker 2: But with that said, no, I don't I don't think 314 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:52,080 Speaker 2: that there were any built in flaws that in her 315 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 2: persona or her career that may that pointed her out 316 00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 2: to be a loser. 317 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 1: Well, I would say her fear failure in the previous 318 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 1: presidential primary circuit to get even one delegate was indicative 319 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 1: of me. But let me jump forward. Bill Clinton selected 320 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,920 Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety two, it's a disaster in nineteen ninety 321 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:22,440 Speaker 1: four congressional races. Then he famously triangulates based on information. 322 00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:26,720 Speaker 1: My question here is not specific to Bill Clinton. To 323 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 1: what degree do politicians make their decisions based on the polls? 324 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 2: To what degree eighty. 325 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 3: Plus. 326 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 2: You know, no leader can afford to be. 327 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:55,880 Speaker 3: Totally ignoring the public. Will the vox popular. 328 00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:03,280 Speaker 2: That's where you know, I think our president today has 329 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:08,119 Speaker 2: been playing very successfully to that hardcore base of MAGA. 330 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 2: But there is evidence in the Reuters poll today that 331 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:18,879 Speaker 2: there's a chipping away of that built in you know, 332 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 2: forty two percent that he Trump just gets for showing 333 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:29,480 Speaker 2: up and for continuing his style of campaigning. So I 334 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 2: think that you know, it wasn't invented with Bill Clinton. 335 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 2: George H. W. Bush, to be sure, had a briefing 336 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,639 Speaker 2: book with the latest polling numbers from the night before 337 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:47,479 Speaker 2: every single day of his presidency, and if Ronald Reagan didn't, 338 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 2: then Jeffrey Deaver, is behind the scenes image maker and 339 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 2: communications person, certainly was reading the polls. 340 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 1: Now, these may be so questions compared to your statistics, 341 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,639 Speaker 1: but what do we know. You have these polls that 342 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:10,480 Speaker 1: are starting to lean against Trump. He does not seem 343 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 1: to be changing his behavior. And in addition, there have 344 00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:22,240 Speaker 1: been authoritarian tendencies we've never seen previously. So traditionally we 345 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 1: might say the polls are against them, the person's in decline. 346 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,800 Speaker 1: But we have a unique situation with the way he's behaving. 347 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 1: I could go through all the facts, but you know them. 348 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 1: So is this a different thing or the poll if 349 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:44,040 Speaker 1: the public ultimately is such that he's going to lose out, 350 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:48,320 Speaker 1: his party, his mission, etc. Or can we say that 351 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:52,320 Speaker 1: this is a different landscape. You know, they're talking about 352 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,879 Speaker 1: him controlling the elections. There are all of these things, 353 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,159 Speaker 1: those supersede poles. 354 00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,200 Speaker 3: There are other variables. Yeah. 355 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:06,679 Speaker 2: Now, just by way of context, let's understand that Barack 356 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:11,199 Speaker 2: Obama won with majorities in two thousand and eight and 357 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:17,000 Speaker 2: twenty twelve. In between, he lost almost record numbers of 358 00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:22,119 Speaker 2: seats for his party in twenty ten in twenty fourteen, 359 00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:29,119 Speaker 2: his success did not translate into his party's success. In fact, 360 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:35,160 Speaker 2: he lost numerous state legislative seats and majorities during that 361 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:39,359 Speaker 2: time period. So back to President Trump. If the election 362 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:45,159 Speaker 2: were held today today, the Republicans would probably take a beating. 363 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 2: What do I base that on? For starters, that semi 364 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 2: artificial reading that we take the congressional generic who was 365 00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 2: to vote for in your district today? 366 00:27:58,080 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 3: The Democrat of. 367 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:05,680 Speaker 2: The Republican We know that Democrats in the polls need 368 00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 2: to have a four and a half to five point 369 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:12,840 Speaker 2: lead that's the threshold, and from there we can translate 370 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:17,480 Speaker 2: that into gaining seats in Congress. Today they hold about 371 00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:21,719 Speaker 2: a five and a half point lead. But we also 372 00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:32,560 Speaker 2: know that in eleven fifteen special elections for state legislature 373 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:38,720 Speaker 2: or Congress, or mayor or courts throughout the country, that 374 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,360 Speaker 2: Democrats have won every one of those seats, and that 375 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,480 Speaker 2: there are other elections that have taken place where Democrats 376 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:53,640 Speaker 2: have outperformed Republicans in solid or outperformed their previous election 377 00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:58,719 Speaker 2: to that seat or the president's vote count in that 378 00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:03,320 Speaker 2: state or district. And so evidence is pointing to if 379 00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 2: the election were held today, we'd be looking I think 380 00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 2: at solid Democratic victories that in fact, there are a 381 00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:13,959 Speaker 2: number of states that weren't even on the radar screen 382 00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 2: that are now on the radar screen as possible Democratic 383 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:21,440 Speaker 2: pickups in the Senate and also the House. But Bob, 384 00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:29,960 Speaker 2: the election is not today, and one miscalculation that may 385 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 2: very well hurt the president is not only that Reuter's 386 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:40,280 Speaker 2: number that, instead of basking in the success of killing 387 00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:44,760 Speaker 2: the Ayatola and numerous other leaders, only twenty seven percent 388 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 2: support the president forty nine percent oppose, but it's it's 389 00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:56,400 Speaker 2: also in the sense that what are Americans talking about 390 00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,000 Speaker 2: the prices at the grocery store and the prices at 391 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:05,480 Speaker 2: the gasoline pump, And interestingly, the prices at the gasoline 392 00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 2: pump had actually come down and been coming down. Projections 393 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,840 Speaker 2: are very soon we're going to see the cost of 394 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 2: oil barrel going up dramatically, and probably at the gas 395 00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 2: pump as well. 396 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,840 Speaker 1: Let's go back. Why did Democrats need that four and 397 00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:25,200 Speaker 1: a half percent margin. 398 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:27,960 Speaker 3: Oh, that is the way. 399 00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:35,520 Speaker 2: That districts are reapportioned or gerrymandered. You know that in 400 00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:40,480 Speaker 2: states every ten years, the mandate from the courts are 401 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:46,600 Speaker 2: that those seats have to be reapportioned basically on demographics 402 00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:51,760 Speaker 2: and so on. And that Republicans have controlled state more 403 00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:56,600 Speaker 2: state legislatures than Democrats have for the last twenty some 404 00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:03,040 Speaker 2: odd years, certainly the last two censuses that have been taken, 405 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:11,360 Speaker 2: And so there are many more solid red congressional districts 406 00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:16,920 Speaker 2: than there are solid blue congressional districts. And so if 407 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:21,800 Speaker 2: we're trying to extrapolate that onto a national vote, that's 408 00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:32,040 Speaker 2: the average that Democrats need. That's kind of the threshold point. 409 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:36,840 Speaker 1: Let's pull the lens back a little bit. Talk about 410 00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:41,040 Speaker 1: the populace at large. Is I supposed specifically Trump? Okay, 411 00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:45,280 Speaker 1: there are some people say that we really agree on 412 00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 1: many things and it's only the the number that we 413 00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,680 Speaker 1: don't agree on. Then other people say, no, there's a 414 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:55,120 Speaker 1: real battle between the elites and the not as educated. 415 00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:58,880 Speaker 1: Shall we say? Then they say, well, you know, it's 416 00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 1: almost like the Mason Dick line. There's a different mentality 417 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,960 Speaker 1: in the South than there is in the north. What's 418 00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 1: the temperature of our country? How does it break down? 419 00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 1: Is any different than it used to be? 420 00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,680 Speaker 2: It's very different than it used to be. Now, I'll 421 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:16,040 Speaker 2: go back to the twenty twenty election if I can, 422 00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:20,400 Speaker 2: and very close election, let's call it a tie. But 423 00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,960 Speaker 2: in a poll that I did in late two thousand 424 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:30,800 Speaker 2: and three, I did a national poll on cultural values, 425 00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:37,680 Speaker 2: you know, God's guns, that sort of thing. And what 426 00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:44,040 Speaker 2: I discovered when I broke down my polling sample into 427 00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 2: those who were from red states those who were from 428 00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:51,920 Speaker 2: blue states, I found, no matter how close those state 429 00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:56,600 Speaker 2: votes may have been, that in a red state, sixty 430 00:32:56,680 --> 00:33:00,720 Speaker 2: one percent said that they possessed a firearm. Thirty five 431 00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:05,479 Speaker 2: percent of those in blue states possessed a firearm. You know, 432 00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:11,000 Speaker 2: seventy plus percent identified God in red states as an 433 00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:15,400 Speaker 2: all powerful, all loving God who's watching over me. There 434 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,600 Speaker 2: was about thirty six thirty seven percent of those in 435 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:24,280 Speaker 2: blue states. We had real differences red and blue. That 436 00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:29,760 Speaker 2: would include at that point in time New Mexico that 437 00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:34,080 Speaker 2: that Gore had won by about two hundred votes, or 438 00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:40,480 Speaker 2: New Hampshire that Democrat won by a few votes, and 439 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:48,240 Speaker 2: so even closely contested. So yes, there are real differences. 440 00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:54,760 Speaker 2: And now the two sides have nested, and that has 441 00:33:54,840 --> 00:34:00,560 Speaker 2: been enabled by our political leaders in this sense that 442 00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:09,080 Speaker 2: we elect good people, but those people have to serve 443 00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:14,880 Speaker 2: their party and balance that somehow with serving their district. 444 00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:21,239 Speaker 2: And but when they balance their party, that mitigates against 445 00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:27,880 Speaker 2: crossing the aisle. We've gotten real hostility taking place, the 446 00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:35,120 Speaker 2: kind of hostility inside the Congress, inside congressional staffs that 447 00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:38,480 Speaker 2: we haven't seen since the eighteen fifties and that ended 448 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:42,040 Speaker 2: up in a civil war. So yeah, there are reasons 449 00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:48,920 Speaker 2: politically to fear. However, fundamentally, there are many things that 450 00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:50,440 Speaker 2: Americans can agree. 451 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:51,440 Speaker 3: Upon, and. 452 00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:58,640 Speaker 2: You know, national leadership can address that, or they can 453 00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:03,080 Speaker 2: take advantage of the divisiveness. We just happen to have 454 00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:06,840 Speaker 2: leadership right from the very top. That's taking advantage of 455 00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:08,720 Speaker 2: the divisiveness. 456 00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:12,880 Speaker 1: Well, it's clear what's going to happen for the Republicans 457 00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:16,680 Speaker 1: the next presidential cycle. It could be Trump, even though 458 00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:19,520 Speaker 1: the Constitution says else other things. But there are a 459 00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:25,000 Speaker 1: couple of very clear people Vance, Rubio, whatever. Democrats, it's 460 00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:28,640 Speaker 1: more wide open. My question here is not the specific 461 00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:35,040 Speaker 1: candidate or what's going on with Newsom. My question is establishment. 462 00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:38,560 Speaker 1: People have been saying you have to run to the center. 463 00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:44,080 Speaker 1: Those disillusions say no, we have to do something more 464 00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:48,240 Speaker 1: similar to Bernie. Let's Bernie's a lightning rod. The word 465 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:54,840 Speaker 1: woke is lightning rod. But we have younger generations. Leaving 466 00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:58,759 Speaker 1: out the issue of celebrity, which way should the Democrats go? 467 00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:08,920 Speaker 2: The way of problem solving and clarity that is pan ideological. 468 00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:14,319 Speaker 2: There are things that we agree on despite labels. And 469 00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:18,680 Speaker 2: the bottom line is you saw zorin Mamdani win on 470 00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:25,200 Speaker 2: affordability and with a plan for housing, a plan for childcare, 471 00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:31,600 Speaker 2: a plan for public transportation, something that appeared to New 472 00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:37,480 Speaker 2: Yorkers to be popular and addressing the issues. 473 00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:39,360 Speaker 1: More and more. 474 00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:44,160 Speaker 2: Voters are younger, are forty five and less. That's the 475 00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:48,799 Speaker 2: cutoff point for millennials forty five to about thirty and 476 00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:53,040 Speaker 2: then under thirty gen Z. And those are people who 477 00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:56,680 Speaker 2: are saying, I don't care what you label it, just 478 00:36:56,800 --> 00:37:01,960 Speaker 2: show me the path of resolving it. And I think 479 00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:06,400 Speaker 2: what polls are showing today is, or what they showed 480 00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:11,040 Speaker 2: in twenty four was that people were tired of the Democrats. 481 00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:16,839 Speaker 2: They were tired of the preachiness, the wolkeness, they were 482 00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:22,280 Speaker 2: tired of a president who in effect should have stepped down. 483 00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,759 Speaker 2: I don't think there's any argument you'll find anywhere that 484 00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:28,840 Speaker 2: suggests that he should have stayed in the race. But 485 00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:34,080 Speaker 2: what it was tantamount to was somebody lying and a cadra, 486 00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:37,120 Speaker 2: a small cadre of people who were lying about the 487 00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:43,480 Speaker 2: president's health. What can work despite the label on the 488 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,839 Speaker 2: left or the right, is the path of least resistance 489 00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:48,480 Speaker 2: to resolving issues. 490 00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:51,960 Speaker 1: What do you say to people who have no faith 491 00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:55,799 Speaker 1: in polls the general public? Let's put it this way. 492 00:37:55,880 --> 00:38:01,200 Speaker 1: It was lawyers and Watergate, then politicians and polls. Many 493 00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:03,920 Speaker 1: people have no faith in the system, and they have 494 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:07,320 Speaker 1: no faith in polls. Starting with polls, what would you tell. 495 00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:12,040 Speaker 2: Them, Well, if you're expecting a poll to be correct 496 00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:15,960 Speaker 2: to the one tenth of a percentile. Every time a 497 00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:20,600 Speaker 2: poll comes out, then don't you know we can tell 498 00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:25,239 Speaker 2: you the direction that things are heading. You know, some 499 00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:29,440 Speaker 2: folks don't poll past Saturday or Sunday night before an election. 500 00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:35,600 Speaker 2: That leaves Monday, Tuesday, and part of Wednesday where things 501 00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,399 Speaker 2: can change. And believe me, they have. You have up 502 00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:42,560 Speaker 2: to ten to fourteen percent who tell us in polls 503 00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:46,319 Speaker 2: that they've finally made up their mind for sure in 504 00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:49,640 Speaker 2: the polling booth or that day as they were heading 505 00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:58,120 Speaker 2: to the polling booth. So have reasonable expectations for polls. 506 00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:03,240 Speaker 2: That's for starters. Secondly, go beyond the horse race. Every 507 00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:09,359 Speaker 2: poll publishes many other things. Maybe all the media don't 508 00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:09,960 Speaker 2: pick it up. 509 00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:10,640 Speaker 3: Maybe they just. 510 00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:14,239 Speaker 2: Pick up that horse race only. But there's so much 511 00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:16,680 Speaker 2: to be gleaned, so much to learn, you know, about 512 00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,560 Speaker 2: the American people, or the people of anywhere, the people 513 00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:24,080 Speaker 2: of your city from poles, So they're very useful. 514 00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:29,719 Speaker 1: Okay, So we saw resistance in Minneapolis, never mind elsewhere. 515 00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:33,279 Speaker 1: We have this war that based on your numbers, the 516 00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:38,600 Speaker 1: public doesn't favor. Can we anticipate something akin to the 517 00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:44,920 Speaker 1: mass protest of the sixties. Can we anticipate a rupture 518 00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,400 Speaker 1: which we have seen in other countries but not in 519 00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:51,520 Speaker 1: America for longer than a century. Or is the system 520 00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:53,640 Speaker 1: going to hold? 521 00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:59,120 Speaker 2: Okay, I don't know that that's necessarily an either or Okay, 522 00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:04,120 Speaker 2: of the system is a broad term. But mass protests, Yes, 523 00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:08,560 Speaker 2: we've had mass protests in recent years. There are mass 524 00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:13,320 Speaker 2: protests actually going on right now. This war with Iran, 525 00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:17,200 Speaker 2: which is going to take President admits at least four 526 00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,160 Speaker 2: to five weeks. That doesn't play in his favor, but 527 00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:22,560 Speaker 2: it's going to be more than four or five weeks. 528 00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:25,719 Speaker 2: How do you build a new system? We're not good 529 00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:30,279 Speaker 2: at that. Incidentally, building new systems in different places. We 530 00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:32,719 Speaker 2: got our butt handed to us whenever we try that. 531 00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:38,560 Speaker 2: But that's going to coincide with the spring, and that's 532 00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:41,640 Speaker 2: when those mass protests really begin. This has been a 533 00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:46,400 Speaker 2: particularly cold winter witnessed Minneapolis, and look at the numbers 534 00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:49,920 Speaker 2: of people that came out in Minneapolis and in Portland 535 00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:54,520 Speaker 2: and in Memphis and so on, and so yeah, I 536 00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:58,600 Speaker 2: can anticipate this was a big one. Going to war 537 00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:03,400 Speaker 2: with Iran. There is no ayatola caucus in this country. 538 00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:08,520 Speaker 2: I said that before, but there is a sense that 539 00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:14,600 Speaker 2: you just can't go around decapitating a government. What does 540 00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,920 Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin have to say about that? Is there a 541 00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:26,600 Speaker 2: target now on Vladimir Zelensky? What is President she have 542 00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:30,400 Speaker 2: to say about that? With Taiwan just across the straits, 543 00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:36,640 Speaker 2: you know, this is a bad policy. It's not supported 544 00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:41,440 Speaker 2: by the American people. We will not tolerate. And I'll 545 00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:43,840 Speaker 2: give you some polling numbers in a second. We will 546 00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:47,160 Speaker 2: not tolerate anything that's protracted. 547 00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,200 Speaker 1: Okay, those numbers, Yeah. 548 00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:54,799 Speaker 2: All right, So I'll go back for starters till late 549 00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:58,120 Speaker 2: September two thousand and one. That's when I got my 550 00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:03,200 Speaker 2: folks back on the telephone after nine eleven, and I 551 00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:09,000 Speaker 2: wanted something for the historical record. So we asked, do 552 00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:13,040 Speaker 2: you support a war on terrorism? I'm shortening these questions, 553 00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:16,920 Speaker 2: support or oppose a war on terrorism? Ninety one percent 554 00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:20,880 Speaker 2: said yes. What if that war on terrorism were to 555 00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:26,080 Speaker 2: last a year to two years? Seventy seven percent said yes. 556 00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:28,600 Speaker 2: What if it were to last more than two years? 557 00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:33,560 Speaker 2: Fifty seven percent said yes. Remember how numb we were 558 00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:40,319 Speaker 2: still in late September of two thousand and one, and 559 00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:45,560 Speaker 2: already there was a sense we're still in the post 560 00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:50,160 Speaker 2: Vietnam War era. If we go to war, win it 561 00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:53,440 Speaker 2: and win it quickly, we don't have any patients. And 562 00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:58,279 Speaker 2: of course that's what happened both in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now, 563 00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:01,520 Speaker 2: we got a sneak peak on Iran last year. My 564 00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:07,000 Speaker 2: son and I we asked this was about taking out 565 00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:14,520 Speaker 2: Iran's nuclear reactor nuclear program, and we asked, do you 566 00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:17,319 Speaker 2: support the United States going to war to take out 567 00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:22,480 Speaker 2: the nuclear program? Only fifty percent said yes, they supported, 568 00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:25,879 Speaker 2: forty five percent of posed. What if it takes six 569 00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:28,759 Speaker 2: months to a year, it went down to forty two 570 00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:32,480 Speaker 2: percent support and a majority of posed. What if it 571 00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:37,080 Speaker 2: takes more than one year, thirty five percent support, sixty 572 00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:41,640 Speaker 2: percent opposed. So we have a strong sense from polling 573 00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:47,960 Speaker 2: data that first of all, this isn't even popular right 574 00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:51,080 Speaker 2: now after we've gone to war. But this will certainly 575 00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:55,560 Speaker 2: not be popular as you go down the road. And 576 00:43:55,680 --> 00:44:00,880 Speaker 2: what's the resolution, what's the what's the end? How do 577 00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:04,400 Speaker 2: we get out? Do we make things better? Those are questions, 578 00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:08,560 Speaker 2: Those are questions that are hanging in the air. 579 00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:11,000 Speaker 1: Well, I know that you have to go, but I 580 00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:14,680 Speaker 1: have one final question before we let you. We had 581 00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:18,760 Speaker 1: World War One based on the assassination of one person. 582 00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:21,200 Speaker 3: We had the. 583 00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:26,640 Speaker 1: Arab spring, we had an over educated fruit vendor. Is 584 00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:30,160 Speaker 1: it possible something like that could happen in America? A 585 00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:34,840 Speaker 1: match lights a small fire that nobody foresees and it 586 00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:36,279 Speaker 1: turns into a conflagration. 587 00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:42,520 Speaker 2: You know, for most of my life, I've been the 588 00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:45,920 Speaker 2: optimist in the room, and I am the optimist in 589 00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:49,759 Speaker 2: the long haul. I have great faith and millennials in 590 00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:54,000 Speaker 2: gen z they're not steeped in our crap. You know, 591 00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:57,960 Speaker 2: they start with not tabula rasa, but they start with 592 00:44:58,040 --> 00:44:59,880 Speaker 2: a different culture and different. 593 00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:04,520 Speaker 3: Set of values. But yes, it is possible. It is possible. 594 00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:08,000 Speaker 1: Thanks for taking the time to speak with my audience. 595 00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:08,319 Speaker 3: John. 596 00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,960 Speaker 1: I know you know we have this crisis and your 597 00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:15,840 Speaker 1: time is valuable. So thanks again. We've been speaking with 598 00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:19,640 Speaker 1: legendary pollster John Zogby in the middle of a crisis. 599 00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:22,360 Speaker 1: There's more information to get, but that's all we have today. 600 00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:25,240 Speaker 1: Thanks again, John, Thank you, Bob. 601 00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:26,640 Speaker 3: I really enjoyed this. 602 00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:30,440 Speaker 1: Until next time. This is Bob Left SAIDs