WEBVTT - Super Bowl Weekend: Nick's Pick 0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:02.800 If your football team had one option in their playbook, 0:00:03.000 --> 0:00:05.800 the results probably wouldn't be great. The same could be 0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:09.440 said for your investments. CIBO index options like SPX and 0:00:09.600 --> 0:00:12.960 XSP can help expand your investing strategies with cash settlement 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:15.840 and potential tax advantages. If you're ready for a more 0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:19.160 dynamic game plan, head to Better with Options dot Com. 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:22.880 Cebo life is better with options, Your investments. 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:23.119 Could be too. 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:26.159 There are risks associated with CBO company products. Review the 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:41.320 disclosures and disclaimers at CBO dot com slash us underscore disclaimers. 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:44.800 All right, welcome in What Dright with Nick Wright, Episode 0:00:44.880 --> 0:00:50.159 one twenty seven, our Super Bowl gambling show. Now, this 0:00:50.280 --> 0:00:54.400 show is going to be released at a different day 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:56.640 than usual, so you guys will be hearing and seeing 0:00:56.680 --> 0:00:59.760 it earlier in the week than you typically do. All 0:01:00.280 --> 0:01:04.160 full disclosure, we are recording this on Monday. We're doing 0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:06.319 that for a number of reasons, not the least of 0:01:06.360 --> 0:01:09.720 which is we are traveling to the Super Bowl and 0:01:09.760 --> 0:01:13.200 it's gonna be some logistical, you know, potential concerns, so 0:01:13.760 --> 0:01:16.800 that we are going to do this without the full 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:20.400 information that you could get at the end of the week. 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:23.959 So take that into account if you are listening to 0:01:24.040 --> 0:01:27.440 this on Friday or Saturday, that we are recording it 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:31.160 on Monday. Here's where we're at on the season so far. 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:37.160 We're just above five hundred. Given the vig we're slight losers. 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:39.520 Money wise, we're fifty seven to fifty three and two 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:45.640 the playoffs we are seven and five. Championship weekend, obviously, 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:50.440 we split that. We talked about it last week. The 0:01:51.520 --> 0:01:54.480 fifty to one bet did not come through for US, 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:59.000 as Brockberry's elbow exploded and then Josh Johnson couldn't play, 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:03.160 and then McCaffrey wasn't allowed to play quarterback, and it 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:06.080 was a disaster of a bet. It turned out San 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:10.119 Francisco plus two and a half Kansas City plus one 0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:14.959 obviously came through in truly glorious fashion. So we split 0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:20.360 last week. This week, there is of course, only one 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:27.560 game to pick. My Kansas City Chiefs are insultingly once 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:32.440 again getting points a point and a half against the 0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:38.799 Philadelphia Eagles. This line opened at the Chiefs minus two 0:02:38.880 --> 0:02:42.400 and a half, It got bet all the way to 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:46.040 Philly minus two and a half, and it is now 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:50.680 settled at Philly minus one and a half. I believe 0:02:51.320 --> 0:02:54.800 the Kansas City Chiefs are going to win. I believe 0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:58.760 Patrick Mahomes is going to do the one thing he 0:02:58.840 --> 0:03:02.840 has not done his NFL career, which is have a 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:07.360 start to finish great Super Bowl. And I think this 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:14.480 Philadelphia defense is going to be exposed a bit on 0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:18.560 the back end due to the fact that they have 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:24.360 not played great quarterbacks all year long. So this is 0:03:24.440 --> 0:03:28.080 something we've discussed on the television show throughout the week. 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:31.480 I discussed it a bit on Monday's pod. It is 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:36.440 worth mentioning again that the Philadelphia Eagles, for as dominant 0:03:36.480 --> 0:03:40.360 as the pass rush has been and as dominant as 0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:44.840 the defense has appeared to be, this is what they 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:50.000 have done this season. They played Jared Goff and the 0:03:50.040 --> 0:03:54.240 Lions scored thirty five points. They played Kirk Cousins. Give 0:03:54.360 --> 0:03:57.760 Cousins credit. The Viking I'm sorry, give the Eagles credit. 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:03.440 The Vikings scored seven. Goff and Cousins would be two 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:06.600 of the best quarterbacks they play all year. They then 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:10.760 played the Washington Commanders, who in that game were starting 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:15.520 Carson Wentz. They then played the Jacksonville Jaguars, who had 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:18.480 the Prince who was promised However, in that game, if 0:04:18.520 --> 0:04:23.719 you remember, Trevor fumbled the ball four times and lost 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:27.599 all four fumbles. Jack still scored twenty one. They then 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:33.640 played Kyler Murray. They then played Cooper Rush. They then 0:04:33.720 --> 0:04:36.560 played I believe it was Kenny Pickett for the Steelers. 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:40.000 They then played who the hell was playing for the 0:04:40.040 --> 0:04:45.080 Texans that game, Davis Mills. They then played the Commanders again. 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:49.160 At this point, the Commanders were starting Taylor Heineke. They 0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:54.560 then played Matt Ryan. They then played Aaron Rodgers. He 0:04:54.640 --> 0:04:59.560 scored thirty three points. They then played Daniel Jones, then 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:06.040 Just Fields, then Dak Prescott. He scored forty points. They 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:11.640 then wrapped the season playing Andy Dalton, Davis Webb, and 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:17.080 then in the postseason Daniel Jones and Brock Purty slash 0:05:17.200 --> 0:05:24.120 Josh Johnson. So, by my count, the Philadelphia Eagles played 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:30.960 on the season five above average quarterbacks Goff Cousins, Trevor, 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:38.080 Dak Rogers. Dak put up forty, Trevor I'm sorry, Rogers 0:05:38.080 --> 0:05:42.280 put up thirty three, Goff put up thirty five. Trevor 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:45.400 put up twenty one, but turned the ball over five times, 0:05:45.720 --> 0:05:48.080 four of which were fumbles, and if you remember, that game, 0:05:48.360 --> 0:05:51.200 they weren't like forced fumbles. He was dropping the football 0:05:51.640 --> 0:05:56.920 and then Kirk Cousins put up seven points. My point 0:05:57.000 --> 0:06:02.840 here is, I do not think the Philadelphia Eagles are 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:08.880 ready for the leveling up that playing Patrick Mahomes and 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:12.960 this Chiefs offense is. I do not think the Philadelphia 0:06:12.960 --> 0:06:17.640 Eagles were done any favors by the fact that they 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:22.880 now head into the Super Bowl having not played a 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:27.720 good quarterback, forget a great quarterback, a good quarterback since 0:06:27.839 --> 0:06:31.159 Christmas Eve, and that they have not played Oh and 0:06:31.160 --> 0:06:32.800 I left out by the way when I was going 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:36.360 through their game, they also played the Titans once. My apologies, 0:06:36.520 --> 0:06:39.720 and that was the game. Did Tannehill play the entire game? 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:39.960 There? 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:42.600 Let me make sure no. Tannehill got injured in that game. 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:47.120 Malik Willis came out. But regardless, they have not played 0:06:47.279 --> 0:06:52.119 well against an above average quarterback since the Jags game 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:56.480 on October second, and so or I guess you could 0:06:56.520 --> 0:07:00.280 argue Kyler is an above average quarterback. You throw him 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:03.480 there as well. That was the following week. I think 0:07:03.560 --> 0:07:08.599 that for the Eagles, had the bracket fallen a little 0:07:08.640 --> 0:07:14.480 differently for them, yes, they would have had to play 0:07:15.760 --> 0:07:19.640 tougher opponents, or they would have had to play tougher games. 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:22.160 But if they had been able to get through it, 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:26.760 they would have also been more prepared. I'm gonna make 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:31.880 another point here that again it speaks to how dominant 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:35.040 the Eagles have been, but I also don't know how 0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:39.360 much it prepares them. Fully. The Eagles have not had 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:45.080 to compete for four full quarters in quite some time. 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:49.440 Because they blew out the Giants, because they blew out 0:07:49.440 --> 0:07:54.200 the forty nine Ers, those games were laughers. The Chiefs, 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:57.679 on the other hand, just had a sixty minute war 0:07:57.760 --> 0:08:04.600 with Cincinnati and had a game that was not decided 0:08:05.000 --> 0:08:08.000 until the final minutes against Jacksonville in part because of 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:12.200 Patrick Mahomes' injury. So for all those reasons, I think 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:15.640 the Chiefs were battle tested. I think they have played 0:08:15.720 --> 0:08:19.239 far tougher opponents. I think they come into this game 0:08:19.840 --> 0:08:25.720 ready for everything, and Philadelphia, if the Chiefs offensive line 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:30.480 can hold up just enough, I think the Philadelphia defense 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:33.680 can be had. And then there's the Jalen Hurts part 0:08:33.720 --> 0:08:38.560 of it, which is he has not looked good throwing 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:42.520 the football since his injury. He keeps telling us he's hurt. 0:08:43.400 --> 0:08:45.480 He has thrown for less than two hundred and eighty 0:08:45.559 --> 0:08:51.600 yards combined in this postseason, and he's yet to throw 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:54.400 for one hundred and sixty yards in either of these games. 0:08:54.679 --> 0:08:58.960 And he hasn't exactly been a super dynamic runner in 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:02.640 either of these games. Also, keep in mind the one 0:09:02.840 --> 0:09:07.880 big passing play Jalen has in these playoffs was an 0:09:07.880 --> 0:09:13.520 incompletion that was incorrectly called a completion. Without that play, 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:17.400 he's less. He's under two hundred and thirty or two 0:09:17.480 --> 0:09:21.160 hundred and forty total passing yards this postseason. So I 0:09:21.320 --> 0:09:24.360 like the Chiefs Demons, I know you have some notes 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:25.160 to give me here. 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:25.320 All right. 0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:28.000 So as an underdog, Mahomes is seven and one and 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:30.800 one against the spread, six and three. 0:09:30.720 --> 0:09:34.720 Straight up as yeah, so, and I'm trying to remember 0:09:34.800 --> 0:09:40.800 the three losses as an underdog that it would be Cincinnati, 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:47.360 Cincinnati for sure, that earlier this year, Buffalo earlier this year, 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:53.079 and I think the old No. The only other loss 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:58.120 as an underdog I think was his first year starting 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:02.520 when they played New England in twenty eighteen, not in 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:06.800 the playoffs but in the regular season. And the producers 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:08.959 can correct me, but I think those are the three 0:10:09.280 --> 0:10:09.760 go ahead. 0:10:09.840 --> 0:10:11.960 So is it more concerning to you that the Chiefs 0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:14.480 have the worst defense so that they have the worst 0:10:14.480 --> 0:10:15.240 skill players. 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:19.079 So I think the Chiefs defense right now is a 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:23.200 touch underrated. Now they need to get Lugerius Snead back. 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:27.240 He's their number one corner. But the Chiefs number one 0:10:27.400 --> 0:10:31.839 corner went down on the third play of the game 0:10:33.200 --> 0:10:37.199 against a team with Chase and Higgins and Cincinnati scored 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:42.319 twenty points. Those rookie Willie Gay, their second best linebacker, 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:46.439 went down in that game as well. The rookie corners 0:10:46.960 --> 0:10:54.080 were exceptional in that game. Chris Jones, with respect to Mahomes, 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:57.240 was the best player on the field in that game. 0:10:57.360 --> 0:11:03.080 Now the Eagles have a brilliant defensive line now, Lane 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:06.160 Johnson their great right tackle, potential future Hall of Famer. 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:11.520 He reportedly retore his groin recently. He's gonna play through it. 0:11:11.760 --> 0:11:17.640 But Jason Kelcey, Travis's brother is their center, and that 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:22.440 Kelsey versus Chris Jones matchup should be great. With that said, 0:11:22.960 --> 0:11:28.400 I'm not certain that even Jason Kelsey can block Chris 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:33.760 Jones one on one. By the way the other the 0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:38.120 other Chiefs loss. I'm being told that I left out 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:41.800 was the Rams. That famous Monday night football game that 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:44.360 was supposed to be in Mexico, who was Mahomes' first 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:47.679 year starting, ended up being I think in Los Angeles 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:51.559 because the Mexican field's turf wasn't good enough and that 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:55.760 game was fifty four fifty one. But that would have 0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:57.679 been a push, I think because I think they lost 0:11:57.679 --> 0:11:59.839 that game by three. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe they lost 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:04.600 for but regardless the oh, straight up loss. Of course, 0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:06.600 I'm not talking about against the spread of straight up loss, 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:11.960 that's right. So that's the other game. Now to get 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:14.319 back here, what you're saying about the skill position, guys, 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:21.280 the Chiefs need these receivers back. They can't do what 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:25.199 I'm talking about them doing with none of these receivers back. 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:29.840 So Juju is the one I'm most confident will be playing. 0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:37.920 Then there's Tony, who I think likely plays, but it's 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:41.200 I mean, he gets in it. It was the knock 0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:43.840 on him with the Giants. It's been a problem for 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:46.199 him in Kansas City. He has a hard time making 0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:50.160 it through games. Hardman, I would be very surprised if 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:55.400 he plays. Hardman suffered a pelvis injury in mid October 0:12:55.600 --> 0:13:00.240 the AFC Championship game was his first game back and 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:03.920 then he reinjured. Now they didn't have active on game day, 0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:08.280 that white guy Justin Watson, who actually has been good 0:13:08.280 --> 0:13:10.520 for the Chiefs deep down the field. The other thing 0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:14.920 that happened in that AFC Championship game, and I'll be 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:17.800 honest with the audience here to Monsey, I had said 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:20.880 to demand early in the game, MBS has been so 0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:25.120 disappointing that he hadn't come through for him all year. 0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:29.319 He was exceptional in that game. That was the best 0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:34.199 game of his career. Can he do that in consecutive weeks? 0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:37.760 That is a bit of a concern. Flipside is this. 0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:39.240 Mahomes is going to be better. 0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:44.440 Mahomes is going to be way healthier, way healthier, and 0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:51.400 the running game can't be worse. Jarrett McKinnon did nothing 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:56.240 in that game. Pacheco was excellent catching the ball, but 0:13:56.360 --> 0:13:59.920 on handoffs did nothing. And I think Mahomes is going 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.440 to be a little at least a little more mobile 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:06.319 with the two weeks off. And they reported that he 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:10.559 didn't get the painkilling shot in the last game before 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:13.680 the Bengals game. No, no, no, that was Mahomes who 0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:18.000 did not get the painkilling shot copy. So my thought 0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:22.760 process there was I think one of the reasons he 0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:25.960 didn't want to take the painkilling shot was he didn't 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:29.320 want to have his foot numbed to a degree re 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:34.720 injure it more not know it make it way worse 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:37.200 to where he might have to miss the super Bowl. 0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:40.400 But now it's the last game of the year. So 0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:43.120 even if he were to re injure it to a degree, 0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:46.200 he you know, he has months and months to recover. 0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:49.680 So I think Mahomes will look close to fully functional, 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:52.440 assuming he doesn't get landed on or you know what 0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:56.560 I mean. And so in those regards. But to me, 0:14:57.320 --> 0:15:00.680 the biggest concern right now is the Chiefs received injuries. 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:01.400 What else you got? 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:03.320 All right? So the Eagles are getting seventy percent of 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:04.080 the money right now? 0:15:04.200 --> 0:15:04.440 Yep. 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:05.960 Do you think that we should bet on the Chiefs 0:15:06.000 --> 0:15:07.200 right now or should we wait? 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:13.120 Well? I do like getting the point and a half, 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:17.200 and I do think there is in what could be. 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:21.800 This is an interesting one because all outcomes are possible here. 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:26.920 It is possible that the Chiefs can't block Philly, that 0:15:26.960 --> 0:15:30.360 the Chiefs receivers you know, two of the three don't 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:35.520 come back and nobody can get separation, Mahomes doesn't have 0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:38.520 time to throw, and the Eagles defensive line wins this 0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:43.240 game and it gets ugly. It is also possible that 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:47.680 the Mahomes hurts discrepancy is too much to overcome, the 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:51.880 Eagles defense gets exposed early, and now all of a sudden, 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:54.400 Philly is playing a style they don't want to play, 0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:56.760 which is having to throw the ball, and it gets 0:15:56.840 --> 0:16:00.960 ugly for Philly early. It's also possible, again, like I said, 0:16:01.000 --> 0:16:03.920 this is not a nuanced commentary that this is a 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:06.440 nip and tuck game. In a nip and tuck game, 0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:12.120 getting that one point is super valuable. Not super valuable, 0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:18.440 but valuable. However, this line is basically settled at a 0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:23.000 point and a half. It would take a shocking development 0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:28.520 for the Chiefs to end up being the favorites. Conversely, 0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:35.040 if there is bad receiver injury news from Kansas City 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:39.880 or sneakily bad Travis Kelsey injury news which I would 0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:42.560 not expect but he wasn't dealing with that back issue, 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:46.240 this line could move up to two and a half. 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:47.480 I was gonna say three. 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:50.200 Yeah, I don't think it'll get to three. I ain't 0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:56.480 get at three. I it'll be way way too much 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:58.840 people coming in on the Chiefs. I think three is 0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:02.680 two key, So I don't think there's a lot of 0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:08.840 risk embedting it now. But if you're anticipating some line movement, 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:14.880 I would say that Kansas City, it would it's more 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:18.399 likely to have the line move in to where you 0:17:18.480 --> 0:17:21.080 get more points with Kansas City. And let me say 0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:23.159 one other thing about if it moves from one and 0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:27.639 a half to two and a half. Games don't typically 0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:34.239 land on two unless a team is down eight, like 0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:37.760 it's twenty eight to twenty. One team has scored four touchdowns, 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:40.280 the other team has two touchdowns and two field goals, 0:17:40.760 --> 0:17:45.600 and that trailing team scores very very late, goes for 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:49.840 two and misses. That's where you know what I mean. 0:17:49.880 --> 0:17:54.600 That could be value on getting the extra point there 0:17:54.600 --> 0:17:55.960 from one and a half to two and a half, 0:17:56.440 --> 0:18:00.639 but it's not going to cross any key numbers basically 0:18:00.680 --> 0:18:02.920 betting a winner in this spot. So I don't think 0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:06.159 there's damage done in betting the Chiefs now. But I 0:18:06.200 --> 0:18:11.120 also think you probably get slight ev by waiting, because 0:18:11.200 --> 0:18:13.480 I don't think you're giving up much and you could 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:16.240 be getting it getting an extra half point or so. 0:18:16.440 --> 0:18:18.879 All right, next, all right, So Brandon Ayuk from the 0:18:18.920 --> 0:18:22.359 forty nine ers think there's only one possible outcome. He says, 0:18:22.480 --> 0:18:25.000 I would take everything that I own, get it in cash, 0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:27.080 and put my money on the Kansas City Chiefs. 0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:28.600 Are you taking that? 0:18:28.880 --> 0:18:32.399 Well, listen, I'm not putting everything I own on the Chiefs. 0:18:32.440 --> 0:18:36.439 What I will tell you is that he also said, 0:18:36.840 --> 0:18:41.639 and I actually texted this story to Wilds, he also 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.919 said the following, I'm gonna read it. I don't fully 0:18:45.000 --> 0:18:48.840 know about that Eagles defense. They talk about them being 0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:52.080 a good defense, I'm not too sure. I think this 0:18:52.200 --> 0:18:55.399 Kansas City pass game will expose what we thought we 0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:59.040 were gonna be able to expose before some unfortunate circumstances. 0:18:59.320 --> 0:19:01.479 We'll see. And like I said, you got to get 0:19:01.560 --> 0:19:03.560 lucky to win a super Bowl, and they just got 0:19:03.600 --> 0:19:06.919 extremely lucky last week. Now, it's a lot of trash 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:09.479 talking for a team that just got absolutely rolled. 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:13.000 But I mean some truth in this. 0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:17.480 I agree with some of that analysis, and I think 0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:24.240 this Eagles defense is not battle tested for the test 0:19:24.400 --> 0:19:27.640 they are going to have to take this coming Sunday. 0:19:28.160 --> 0:19:31.600 So the Chiefs plus one and a half is our 0:19:31.760 --> 0:19:36.359 final game wager of the year. If we win this bet, 0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:40.399 we finished fifty eight fifty three and two, which is 0:19:40.520 --> 0:19:44.280 essentially dead even on the year when you incorporate the 0:19:44.359 --> 0:19:47.800 viig We did well in our preseason win total bets, 0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:51.240 and make miss playoff bets. So it no matter what 0:19:51.400 --> 0:19:55.320 happens here, this is a profitable season. Not nearly as 0:19:55.359 --> 0:19:58.080 wildly profitable if it did as it would have been 0:19:58.119 --> 0:20:00.160 if the Niners had won that game against Philly. 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:02.119 But so be it that I have a little bit 0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:03.960 more money had you edged that Super Bowl bit. 0:20:04.080 --> 0:20:09.280 Stop talking about hedging that you could have a little 0:20:09.320 --> 0:20:11.600 more money if you'd stop making NBA teasers. 0:20:12.080 --> 0:20:14.640 I made one, Yeah, I lost eleven books. 0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:18.120 Yeah, well that's eleven more dollars. We're in play game 0:20:18.240 --> 0:20:23.040 with some player props. That's next, what's right. 0:20:28.480 --> 0:20:31.280 This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable. 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Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video. 0:20:57.320 --> 0:20:59.520 All right, welcome back in What's Right with Nick Right, 0:20:59.520 --> 0:21:02.280 Episode one twenty seven, our Super Bowl gambling show. 0:21:02.480 --> 0:21:02.760 Again. 0:21:02.840 --> 0:21:05.720 We're recording this on Monday, so some of these things 0:21:05.760 --> 0:21:08.200 could change, but we're now gonna do some player props 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:09.600 to Monsay. You go right ahead. 0:21:09.760 --> 0:21:12.639 We'll start off with your chiefs. Yeah, Rebec Patrick Mahomes. 0:21:12.720 --> 0:21:13.240 Yeah. 0:21:13.240 --> 0:21:15.520 First off, we've got over one and a half touchdown 0:21:15.520 --> 0:21:18.879 passes that's at minus two ten, okay, over three hundred 0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:22.960 and thirteen passing plus combined or passing plus rushing yards 0:21:22.960 --> 0:21:25.520 at minus one fifteen as well, huh or not as well, 0:21:25.800 --> 0:21:28.400 and then over twenty five and a half completions at 0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:29.120 minus one ten. 0:21:29.359 --> 0:21:34.240 Okay, So this is two wrongs one right, So I'm 0:21:34.280 --> 0:21:37.920 supposed to pick one of these that I like, the 0:21:37.960 --> 0:21:42.520 one that I like. Listen. I do think he's going 0:21:42.560 --> 0:21:45.960 to have over one and a half passing touchdowns, but 0:21:46.160 --> 0:21:49.320 minus two ten is a big number. 0:21:49.359 --> 0:21:50.400 To lay right. 0:21:51.359 --> 0:21:59.520 So I think the right play here is the over 0:21:59.640 --> 0:22:03.360 three hundred and thirteen and a half total total yards 0:22:04.400 --> 0:22:08.720 and the twenty five and a half completions probably goes 0:22:08.760 --> 0:22:11.439 hand in hand with that, but not necessarily not if 0:22:11.480 --> 0:22:14.200 he gets a few big chunk plays, which I think 0:22:14.240 --> 0:22:19.240 will be available against Philly. I do again, I do 0:22:19.400 --> 0:22:22.200 like the over one and a half passing touchdowns for him, 0:22:22.520 --> 0:22:26.840 but at minus two ten rather than over three hundred 0:22:26.880 --> 0:22:30.080 and thirteen and a half total yards at minus one 0:22:30.080 --> 0:22:35.760 p fifteen. To me, that's better. Now his individual rushing 0:22:35.800 --> 0:22:38.080 and passing props are two eighty eight and a half 0:22:38.119 --> 0:22:41.840 passing yards and twenty and a half rushing yards. I 0:22:41.960 --> 0:22:44.560 like the rushing yards side of that way more. I 0:22:44.640 --> 0:22:48.320 think that listen, fifteen, Mahomes is gonna be running in 0:22:48.359 --> 0:22:51.400 this game. To me, there's no question about it, and 0:22:51.520 --> 0:22:54.359 I think the ankle will be healthy enough that over 0:22:54.480 --> 0:22:59.399 twenty and a half rushing yards is potentially my fate, 0:22:59.560 --> 0:23:01.680 like my fa favorite bet that I've seen so far. 0:23:01.760 --> 0:23:06.440 With that said, remember in the Niners Super Bowl, mahomes 0:23:06.720 --> 0:23:11.720 rushing yard total was at like thirty four something like that. 0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:16.880 He was in the forties and then took three massive 0:23:16.960 --> 0:23:19.800 kneel downs at the end of the game for minus 0:23:19.840 --> 0:23:23.840 three yards, minus five yards, minus seven yards, and they 0:23:23.920 --> 0:23:26.800 ended up those count as negative rushing yards. They ended 0:23:26.880 --> 0:23:29.800 up going under because he landed on like twenty six 0:23:30.119 --> 0:23:32.760 after being at I think forty one thanks to the 0:23:32.840 --> 0:23:37.280 kneel downs. That was, though more circumstantial than anything. If 0:23:37.320 --> 0:23:40.399 I do think the Chiefs are gonna win the game, 0:23:41.480 --> 0:23:44.639 he might need to be at twenty six rushing yards 0:23:44.680 --> 0:23:47.520 though for you to feel fully comfortable if he's gonna 0:23:47.520 --> 0:23:50.040 have three kneel downs. But I still like it. All right, 0:23:50.080 --> 0:23:51.320 now we're on to Jalen Hurts. 0:23:51.359 --> 0:23:53.920 Go ahead, Yeah, Jalen Hurts overs. Yeah. 0:23:54.160 --> 0:23:56.240 So we got over one and a half touchdown pass 0:23:56.320 --> 0:23:59.000 as well, Yeah, minus one oh five over two hundred 0:23:59.040 --> 0:24:02.040 and ninety eight combined passing and rushing yards yep, minus 0:24:02.040 --> 0:24:05.239 one fifteen, and then over twenty one over twenty one 0:24:05.240 --> 0:24:06.960 and a half completions at minus one o five. 0:24:07.160 --> 0:24:14.600 Okay, So I here's the thing. I like the under 0:24:15.240 --> 0:24:23.520 on total yards. I I don't love any of these 0:24:24.400 --> 0:24:27.520 because I think Jalen might truly struggle and that even 0:24:27.520 --> 0:24:30.439 if the Eagles win, it's gonna be miles Sanders and 0:24:30.480 --> 0:24:37.719 Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell and Jalen running. So I 0:24:37.720 --> 0:24:41.760 I wouldn't bet any of these. But of the three, 0:24:42.520 --> 0:24:45.600 the one that I think might have the most value 0:24:45.640 --> 0:24:49.000 as the completions is that a lot of dinking and 0:24:49.080 --> 0:24:55.080 dunking and short completions. But my gut feeling is to 0:24:55.160 --> 0:24:58.439 stay away from these and you can just bet the unders, 0:24:58.520 --> 0:25:00.680 you know what I mean? For usually about same big 0:25:00.680 --> 0:25:06.199 here his individual if we not do total yards but 0:25:06.280 --> 0:25:08.680 two hundred and forty five pass yards and forty nine 0:25:08.720 --> 0:25:11.960 and a half rush yards. I do think he could 0:25:12.040 --> 0:25:14.840 hit the over on rushing yards. I do think Jalen 0:25:14.840 --> 0:25:17.680 could run for like sixty five yards in this game potentially, 0:25:18.280 --> 0:25:23.520 But to me, under three hundred combined passing and rushing 0:25:23.600 --> 0:25:26.960 yards is the bet I would be making there. 0:25:27.000 --> 0:25:29.119 All right, Next, all right, so I'm assuming you expect 0:25:29.160 --> 0:25:31.639 a lot of Chiefs touchdowns in the game. So who 0:25:31.680 --> 0:25:34.760 do you think will score them? Travis Kelcey We got 0:25:34.800 --> 0:25:38.119 anytime touchdown score for him at minus one thirty, Kadarius 0:25:38.160 --> 0:25:41.159 Tony at plus two forty, and Juju Smith Schuster at 0:25:41.160 --> 0:25:42.240 plus two forty as well. 0:25:42.320 --> 0:25:46.760 Okay, so Tony and Juju right now, are can't bets obviously, 0:25:47.200 --> 0:25:49.560 we need to wait and see what their health status is. 0:25:50.280 --> 0:25:53.920 Kelsey is a must bet. Travis Kelcey in the playoffs 0:25:53.920 --> 0:25:58.600 scores touchdowns and especially with a banged up receiving corps. 0:25:58.840 --> 0:26:03.080