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Speaker 3: All right, welcome in What Dright with Nick Wright, Episode
Speaker 3: one twenty seven, our Super Bowl gambling show. Now, this
Speaker 3: show is going to be released at a different day
Speaker 3: than usual, so you guys will be hearing and seeing
Speaker 3: it earlier in the week than you typically do. All
Speaker 3: full disclosure, we are recording this on Monday. We're doing
Speaker 3: that for a number of reasons, not the least of
Speaker 3: which is we are traveling to the Super Bowl and
Speaker 3: it's gonna be some logistical, you know, potential concerns, so
Speaker 3: that we are going to do this without the full
Speaker 3: information that you could get at the end of the week.
Speaker 3: So take that into account if you are listening to
Speaker 3: this on Friday or Saturday, that we are recording it
Speaker 3: on Monday. Here's where we're at on the season so far.
Speaker 3: We're just above five hundred. Given the vig we're slight losers.
Speaker 3: Money wise, we're fifty seven to fifty three and two
Speaker 3: the playoffs we are seven and five. Championship weekend, obviously,
Speaker 3: we split that. We talked about it last week. The
Speaker 3: fifty to one bet did not come through for US,
Speaker 3: as Brockberry's elbow exploded and then Josh Johnson couldn't play,
Speaker 3: and then McCaffrey wasn't allowed to play quarterback, and it
Speaker 3: was a disaster of a bet. It turned out San
Speaker 3: Francisco plus two and a half Kansas City plus one
Speaker 3: obviously came through in truly glorious fashion. So we split
Speaker 3: last week. This week, there is of course, only one
Speaker 3: game to pick. My Kansas City Chiefs are insultingly once
Speaker 3: again getting points a point and a half against the
Speaker 3: Philadelphia Eagles. This line opened at the Chiefs minus two
Speaker 3: and a half, It got bet all the way to
Speaker 3: Philly minus two and a half, and it is now
Speaker 3: settled at Philly minus one and a half. I believe
Speaker 3: the Kansas City Chiefs are going to win. I believe
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes is going to do the one thing he
Speaker 3: has not done his NFL career, which is have a
Speaker 3: start to finish great Super Bowl. And I think this
Speaker 3: Philadelphia defense is going to be exposed a bit on
Speaker 3: the back end due to the fact that they have
Speaker 3: not played great quarterbacks all year long. So this is
Speaker 3: something we've discussed on the television show throughout the week.
Speaker 3: I discussed it a bit on Monday's pod. It is
Speaker 3: worth mentioning again that the Philadelphia Eagles, for as dominant
Speaker 3: as the pass rush has been and as dominant as
Speaker 3: the defense has appeared to be, this is what they
Speaker 3: have done this season. They played Jared Goff and the
Speaker 3: Lions scored thirty five points. They played Kirk Cousins. Give
Speaker 3: Cousins credit. The Viking I'm sorry, give the Eagles credit.
Speaker 3: The Vikings scored seven. Goff and Cousins would be two
Speaker 3: of the best quarterbacks they play all year. They then
Speaker 3: played the Washington Commanders, who in that game were starting
Speaker 3: Carson Wentz. They then played the Jacksonville Jaguars, who had
Speaker 3: the Prince who was promised However, in that game, if
Speaker 3: you remember, Trevor fumbled the ball four times and lost
Speaker 3: all four fumbles. Jack still scored twenty one. They then
Speaker 3: played Kyler Murray. They then played Cooper Rush. They then
Speaker 3: played I believe it was Kenny Pickett for the Steelers.
Speaker 3: They then played who the hell was playing for the
Speaker 3: Texans that game, Davis Mills. They then played the Commanders again.
Speaker 3: At this point, the Commanders were starting Taylor Heineke. They
Speaker 3: then played Matt Ryan. They then played Aaron Rodgers. He
Speaker 3: scored thirty three points. They then played Daniel Jones, then
Speaker 3: Just Fields, then Dak Prescott. He scored forty points. They
Speaker 3: then wrapped the season playing Andy Dalton, Davis Webb, and
Speaker 3: then in the postseason Daniel Jones and Brock Purty slash
Speaker 3: Josh Johnson. So, by my count, the Philadelphia Eagles played
Speaker 3: on the season five above average quarterbacks Goff Cousins, Trevor,
Speaker 3: Dak Rogers. Dak put up forty, Trevor I'm sorry, Rogers
Speaker 3: put up thirty three, Goff put up thirty five. Trevor
Speaker 3: put up twenty one, but turned the ball over five times,
Speaker 3: four of which were fumbles, and if you remember, that game,
Speaker 3: they weren't like forced fumbles. He was dropping the football
Speaker 3: and then Kirk Cousins put up seven points. My point
Speaker 3: here is, I do not think the Philadelphia Eagles are
Speaker 3: ready for the leveling up that playing Patrick Mahomes and
Speaker 3: this Chiefs offense is. I do not think the Philadelphia
Speaker 3: Eagles were done any favors by the fact that they
Speaker 3: now head into the Super Bowl having not played a
Speaker 3: good quarterback, forget a great quarterback, a good quarterback since
Speaker 3: Christmas Eve, and that they have not played Oh and
Speaker 3: I left out by the way when I was going
Speaker 3: through their game, they also played the Titans once. My apologies,
Speaker 3: and that was the game. Did Tannehill play the entire game?
Speaker 2: There?
Speaker 3: Let me make sure no. Tannehill got injured in that game.
Speaker 3: Malik Willis came out. But regardless, they have not played
Speaker 3: well against an above average quarterback since the Jags game
Speaker 3: on October second, and so or I guess you could
Speaker 3: argue Kyler is an above average quarterback. You throw him
Speaker 3: there as well. That was the following week. I think
Speaker 3: that for the Eagles, had the bracket fallen a little
Speaker 3: differently for them, yes, they would have had to play
Speaker 3: tougher opponents, or they would have had to play tougher games.
Speaker 3: But if they had been able to get through it,
Speaker 3: they would have also been more prepared. I'm gonna make
Speaker 3: another point here that again it speaks to how dominant
Speaker 3: the Eagles have been, but I also don't know how
Speaker 3: much it prepares them. Fully. The Eagles have not had
Speaker 3: to compete for four full quarters in quite some time.
Speaker 3: Because they blew out the Giants, because they blew out
Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers, those games were laughers. The Chiefs,
Speaker 3: on the other hand, just had a sixty minute war
Speaker 3: with Cincinnati and had a game that was not decided
Speaker 3: until the final minutes against Jacksonville in part because of
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes' injury. So for all those reasons, I think
Speaker 3: the Chiefs were battle tested. I think they have played
Speaker 3: far tougher opponents. I think they come into this game
Speaker 3: ready for everything, and Philadelphia, if the Chiefs offensive line
Speaker 3: can hold up just enough, I think the Philadelphia defense
Speaker 3: can be had. And then there's the Jalen Hurts part
Speaker 3: of it, which is he has not looked good throwing
Speaker 3: the football since his injury. He keeps telling us he's hurt.
Speaker 3: He has thrown for less than two hundred and eighty
Speaker 3: yards combined in this postseason, and he's yet to throw
Speaker 3: for one hundred and sixty yards in either of these games.
Speaker 3: And he hasn't exactly been a super dynamic runner in
Speaker 3: either of these games. Also, keep in mind the one
Speaker 3: big passing play Jalen has in these playoffs was an
Speaker 3: incompletion that was incorrectly called a completion. Without that play,
Speaker 3: he's less. He's under two hundred and thirty or two
Speaker 3: hundred and forty total passing yards this postseason. So I
Speaker 3: like the Chiefs Demons, I know you have some notes
Speaker 3: to give me here.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 4: So as an underdog, Mahomes is seven and one and
Speaker 4: one against the spread, six and three.
Speaker 3: Straight up as yeah, so, and I'm trying to remember
Speaker 3: the three losses as an underdog that it would be Cincinnati,
Speaker 3: Cincinnati for sure, that earlier this year, Buffalo earlier this year,
Speaker 3: and I think the old No. The only other loss
Speaker 3: as an underdog I think was his first year starting
Speaker 3: when they played New England in twenty eighteen, not in
Speaker 3: the playoffs but in the regular season. And the producers
Speaker 3: can correct me, but I think those are the three
Speaker 3: go ahead.
Speaker 4: So is it more concerning to you that the Chiefs
Speaker 4: have the worst defense so that they have the worst
Speaker 4: skill players.
Speaker 3: So I think the Chiefs defense right now is a
Speaker 3: touch underrated. Now they need to get Lugerius Snead back.
Speaker 3: He's their number one corner. But the Chiefs number one
Speaker 3: corner went down on the third play of the game
Speaker 3: against a team with Chase and Higgins and Cincinnati scored
Speaker 3: twenty points. Those rookie Willie Gay, their second best linebacker,
Speaker 3: went down in that game as well. The rookie corners
Speaker 3: were exceptional in that game. Chris Jones, with respect to Mahomes,
Speaker 3: was the best player on the field in that game.
Speaker 3: Now the Eagles have a brilliant defensive line now, Lane
Speaker 3: Johnson their great right tackle, potential future Hall of Famer.
Speaker 3: He reportedly retore his groin recently. He's gonna play through it.
Speaker 3: But Jason Kelcey, Travis's brother is their center, and that
Speaker 3: Kelsey versus Chris Jones matchup should be great. With that said,
Speaker 3: I'm not certain that even Jason Kelsey can block Chris
Speaker 3: Jones one on one. By the way the other the
Speaker 3: other Chiefs loss. I'm being told that I left out
Speaker 3: was the Rams. That famous Monday night football game that
Speaker 3: was supposed to be in Mexico, who was Mahomes' first
Speaker 3: year starting, ended up being I think in Los Angeles
Speaker 3: because the Mexican field's turf wasn't good enough and that
Speaker 3: game was fifty four fifty one. But that would have
Speaker 3: been a push, I think because I think they lost
Speaker 3: that game by three. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe they lost
Speaker 3: for but regardless the oh, straight up loss. Of course,
Speaker 3: I'm not talking about against the spread of straight up loss,
Speaker 3: that's right. So that's the other game. Now to get
Speaker 3: back here, what you're saying about the skill position, guys,
Speaker 3: the Chiefs need these receivers back. They can't do what
Speaker 3: I'm talking about them doing with none of these receivers back.
Speaker 3: So Juju is the one I'm most confident will be playing.
Speaker 3: Then there's Tony, who I think likely plays, but it's
Speaker 3: I mean, he gets in it. It was the knock
Speaker 3: on him with the Giants. It's been a problem for
Speaker 3: him in Kansas City. He has a hard time making
Speaker 3: it through games. Hardman, I would be very surprised if
Speaker 3: he plays. Hardman suffered a pelvis injury in mid October
Speaker 3: the AFC Championship game was his first game back and
Speaker 3: then he reinjured. Now they didn't have active on game day,
Speaker 3: that white guy Justin Watson, who actually has been good
Speaker 3: for the Chiefs deep down the field. The other thing
Speaker 3: that happened in that AFC Championship game, and I'll be
Speaker 3: honest with the audience here to Monsey, I had said
Speaker 3: to demand early in the game, MBS has been so
Speaker 3: disappointing that he hadn't come through for him all year.
Speaker 3: He was exceptional in that game. That was the best
Speaker 3: game of his career. Can he do that in consecutive weeks?
Speaker 3: That is a bit of a concern. Flipside is this.
Speaker 2: Mahomes is going to be better.
Speaker 3: Mahomes is going to be way healthier, way healthier, and
Speaker 3: the running game can't be worse. Jarrett McKinnon did nothing
Speaker 3: in that game. Pacheco was excellent catching the ball, but
Speaker 3: on handoffs did nothing. And I think Mahomes is going
Speaker 3: to be a little at least a little more mobile
Speaker 3: with the two weeks off. And they reported that he
Speaker 3: didn't get the painkilling shot in the last game before
Speaker 3: the Bengals game. No, no, no, that was Mahomes who
Speaker 3: did not get the painkilling shot copy. So my thought
Speaker 3: process there was I think one of the reasons he
Speaker 3: didn't want to take the painkilling shot was he didn't
Speaker 3: want to have his foot numbed to a degree re
Speaker 3: injure it more not know it make it way worse
Speaker 3: to where he might have to miss the super Bowl.
Speaker 3: But now it's the last game of the year. So
Speaker 3: even if he were to re injure it to a degree,
Speaker 3: he you know, he has months and months to recover.
Speaker 3: So I think Mahomes will look close to fully functional,
Speaker 3: assuming he doesn't get landed on or you know what
Speaker 3: I mean. And so in those regards. But to me,
Speaker 3: the biggest concern right now is the Chiefs received injuries.
Speaker 3: What else you got?
Speaker 2: All right? So the Eagles are getting seventy percent of
Speaker 2: the money right now?
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 2: Do you think that we should bet on the Chiefs
Speaker 2: right now or should we wait?
Speaker 3: Well? I do like getting the point and a half,
Speaker 3: and I do think there is in what could be.
Speaker 3: This is an interesting one because all outcomes are possible here.
Speaker 3: It is possible that the Chiefs can't block Philly, that
Speaker 3: the Chiefs receivers you know, two of the three don't
Speaker 3: come back and nobody can get separation, Mahomes doesn't have
Speaker 3: time to throw, and the Eagles defensive line wins this
Speaker 3: game and it gets ugly. It is also possible that
Speaker 3: the Mahomes hurts discrepancy is too much to overcome, the
Speaker 3: Eagles defense gets exposed early, and now all of a sudden,
Speaker 3: Philly is playing a style they don't want to play,
Speaker 3: which is having to throw the ball, and it gets
Speaker 3: ugly for Philly early. It's also possible, again, like I said,
Speaker 3: this is not a nuanced commentary that this is a
Speaker 3: nip and tuck game. In a nip and tuck game,
Speaker 3: getting that one point is super valuable. Not super valuable,
Speaker 3: but valuable. However, this line is basically settled at a
Speaker 3: point and a half. It would take a shocking development
Speaker 3: for the Chiefs to end up being the favorites. Conversely,
Speaker 3: if there is bad receiver injury news from Kansas City
Speaker 3: or sneakily bad Travis Kelsey injury news which I would
Speaker 3: not expect but he wasn't dealing with that back issue,
Speaker 3: this line could move up to two and a half.
Speaker 2: I was gonna say three.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think it'll get to three. I ain't
Speaker 3: get at three. I it'll be way way too much
Speaker 3: people coming in on the Chiefs. I think three is
Speaker 3: two key, So I don't think there's a lot of
Speaker 3: risk embedting it now. But if you're anticipating some line movement,
Speaker 3: I would say that Kansas City, it would it's more
Speaker 3: likely to have the line move in to where you
Speaker 3: get more points with Kansas City. And let me say
Speaker 3: one other thing about if it moves from one and
Speaker 3: a half to two and a half. Games don't typically
Speaker 3: land on two unless a team is down eight, like
Speaker 3: it's twenty eight to twenty. One team has scored four touchdowns,
Speaker 3: the other team has two touchdowns and two field goals,
Speaker 3: and that trailing team scores very very late, goes for
Speaker 3: two and misses. That's where you know what I mean.
Speaker 3: That could be value on getting the extra point there
Speaker 3: from one and a half to two and a half,
Speaker 3: but it's not going to cross any key numbers basically
Speaker 3: betting a winner in this spot. So I don't think
Speaker 3: there's damage done in betting the Chiefs now. But I
Speaker 3: also think you probably get slight ev by waiting, because
Speaker 3: I don't think you're giving up much and you could
Speaker 3: be getting it getting an extra half point or so.
Speaker 4: All right, next, all right, So Brandon Ayuk from the
Speaker 4: forty nine ers think there's only one possible outcome. He says,
Speaker 4: I would take everything that I own, get it in cash,
Speaker 4: and put my money on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 2: Are you taking that?
Speaker 3: Well, listen, I'm not putting everything I own on the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: What I will tell you is that he also said,
Speaker 3: and I actually texted this story to Wilds, he also
Speaker 3: said the following, I'm gonna read it. I don't fully
Speaker 3: know about that Eagles defense. They talk about them being
Speaker 3: a good defense, I'm not too sure. I think this
Speaker 3: Kansas City pass game will expose what we thought we
Speaker 3: were gonna be able to expose before some unfortunate circumstances.
Speaker 3: We'll see. And like I said, you got to get
Speaker 3: lucky to win a super Bowl, and they just got
Speaker 3: extremely lucky last week. Now, it's a lot of trash
Speaker 3: talking for a team that just got absolutely rolled.
Speaker 2: But I mean some truth in this.
Speaker 3: I agree with some of that analysis, and I think
Speaker 3: this Eagles defense is not battle tested for the test
Speaker 3: they are going to have to take this coming Sunday.
Speaker 3: So the Chiefs plus one and a half is our
Speaker 3: final game wager of the year. If we win this bet,
Speaker 3: we finished fifty eight fifty three and two, which is
Speaker 3: essentially dead even on the year when you incorporate the
Speaker 3: viig We did well in our preseason win total bets,
Speaker 3: and make miss playoff bets. So it no matter what
Speaker 3: happens here, this is a profitable season. Not nearly as
Speaker 3: wildly profitable if it did as it would have been
Speaker 3: if the Niners had won that game against Philly.
Speaker 2: But so be it that I have a little bit
Speaker 2: more money had you edged that Super Bowl bit.
Speaker 3: Stop talking about hedging that you could have a little
Speaker 3: more money if you'd stop making NBA teasers.
Speaker 2: I made one, Yeah, I lost eleven books.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well that's eleven more dollars. We're in play game
Speaker 3: with some player props. That's next, what's right.
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Speaker 3: All right, welcome back in What's Right with Nick Right,
Speaker 3: Episode one twenty seven, our Super Bowl gambling show.
Speaker 2: Again.
Speaker 3: We're recording this on Monday, so some of these things
Speaker 3: could change, but we're now gonna do some player props
Speaker 3: to Monsay. You go right ahead.
Speaker 4: We'll start off with your chiefs. Yeah, Rebec Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: First off, we've got over one and a half touchdown
Speaker 4: passes that's at minus two ten, okay, over three hundred
Speaker 4: and thirteen passing plus combined or passing plus rushing yards
Speaker 4: at minus one fifteen as well, huh or not as well,
Speaker 4: and then over twenty five and a half completions at
Speaker 4: minus one ten.
Speaker 3: Okay, So this is two wrongs one right, So I'm
Speaker 3: supposed to pick one of these that I like, the
Speaker 3: one that I like. Listen. I do think he's going
Speaker 3: to have over one and a half passing touchdowns, but
Speaker 3: minus two ten is a big number.
Speaker 2: To lay right.
Speaker 3: So I think the right play here is the over
Speaker 3: three hundred and thirteen and a half total total yards
Speaker 3: and the twenty five and a half completions probably goes
Speaker 3: hand in hand with that, but not necessarily not if
Speaker 3: he gets a few big chunk plays, which I think
Speaker 3: will be available against Philly. I do again, I do
Speaker 3: like the over one and a half passing touchdowns for him,
Speaker 3: but at minus two ten rather than over three hundred
Speaker 3: and thirteen and a half total yards at minus one
Speaker 3: p fifteen. To me, that's better. Now his individual rushing
Speaker 3: and passing props are two eighty eight and a half
Speaker 3: passing yards and twenty and a half rushing yards. I
Speaker 3: like the rushing yards side of that way more. I
Speaker 3: think that listen, fifteen, Mahomes is gonna be running in
Speaker 3: this game. To me, there's no question about it, and
Speaker 3: I think the ankle will be healthy enough that over
Speaker 3: twenty and a half rushing yards is potentially my fate,
Speaker 3: like my fa favorite bet that I've seen so far.
Speaker 3: With that said, remember in the Niners Super Bowl, mahomes
Speaker 3: rushing yard total was at like thirty four something like that.
Speaker 3: He was in the forties and then took three massive
Speaker 3: kneel downs at the end of the game for minus
Speaker 3: three yards, minus five yards, minus seven yards, and they
Speaker 3: ended up those count as negative rushing yards. They ended
Speaker 3: up going under because he landed on like twenty six
Speaker 3: after being at I think forty one thanks to the
Speaker 3: kneel downs. That was, though more circumstantial than anything. If
Speaker 3: I do think the Chiefs are gonna win the game,
Speaker 3: he might need to be at twenty six rushing yards
Speaker 3: though for you to feel fully comfortable if he's gonna
Speaker 3: have three kneel downs. But I still like it. All right,
Speaker 3: now we're on to Jalen Hurts.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Yeah, Jalen Hurts overs. Yeah.
Speaker 4: So we got over one and a half touchdown pass
Speaker 4: as well, Yeah, minus one oh five over two hundred
Speaker 4: and ninety eight combined passing and rushing yards yep, minus
Speaker 4: one fifteen, and then over twenty one over twenty one
Speaker 4: and a half completions at minus one o five.
Speaker 3: Okay, So I here's the thing. I like the under
Speaker 3: on total yards. I I don't love any of these
Speaker 3: because I think Jalen might truly struggle and that even
Speaker 3: if the Eagles win, it's gonna be miles Sanders and
Speaker 3: Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell and Jalen running. So I
Speaker 3: I wouldn't bet any of these. But of the three,
Speaker 3: the one that I think might have the most value
Speaker 3: as the completions is that a lot of dinking and
Speaker 3: dunking and short completions. But my gut feeling is to
Speaker 3: stay away from these and you can just bet the unders,
Speaker 3: you know what I mean? For usually about same big
Speaker 3: here his individual if we not do total yards but
Speaker 3: two hundred and forty five pass yards and forty nine
Speaker 3: and a half rush yards. I do think he could
Speaker 3: hit the over on rushing yards. I do think Jalen
Speaker 3: could run for like sixty five yards in this game potentially,
Speaker 3: But to me, under three hundred combined passing and rushing
Speaker 3: yards is the bet I would be making there.
Speaker 4: All right, Next, all right, so I'm assuming you expect
Speaker 4: a lot of Chiefs touchdowns in the game. So who
Speaker 4: do you think will score them? Travis Kelcey We got
Speaker 4: anytime touchdown score for him at minus one thirty, Kadarius
Speaker 4: Tony at plus two forty, and Juju Smith Schuster at
Speaker 4: plus two forty as well.
Speaker 3: Okay, so Tony and Juju right now, are can't bets obviously,
Speaker 3: we need to wait and see what their health status is.
Speaker 3: Kelsey is a must bet. Travis Kelcey in the playoffs
Speaker 3: scores touchdowns and especially with a banged up receiving corps.
Speaker 3: To me, that one is an easy, obvious bet, and
Speaker 3: the Kelsey would be my bet there after Kelsey. I
Speaker 3: would like Jared McKinnon as a potential touchdown score. I
Speaker 3: would like Pat. I like Patrick Mahomes a ton as
Speaker 3: a rushing touchdown score, like it a ton he's in
Speaker 3: the playoffs, he has I think six career rushing touchdowns.
Speaker 2: So do you think that he's I mean, he's definitely
Speaker 2: probably plus money. How much money do you think he's.
Speaker 3: Oh Mahomes or no you no, no, no, it won't
Speaker 3: be that much. Uh. I mean, I can just look
Speaker 3: real quick. My guess is he's around the same as
Speaker 3: the as around the same as kid area as Tony.
Speaker 3: But I'll just check real quick what Mahomes anytime touchdown
Speaker 3: score is. While I look, go ahead and read me
Speaker 3: the next one.
Speaker 4: All right, So the next one we've got is Eagles
Speaker 4: anytime touchdown score.
Speaker 2: So we've got Jalen Hurt set minus one eight.
Speaker 3: Oh, real quick. By the way, Patrick Mahomes, Oh wow, wow,
Speaker 3: you were right. Demant is plus four sixty. That's way
Speaker 3: too high. That's way too high. I like that bet
Speaker 3: a lot. I like that bet a lot.
Speaker 2: They're probably thinking about his ankle a lot.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I think he'll get out and run, right,
Speaker 3: I think he'll get out and run in this game.
Speaker 3: All right, go ahead, now we're on the Eagles.
Speaker 4: Sorry, Eagles anytime touchdown score. We got Jalen Hurts at
Speaker 4: minus one ten, AJ Brown at plus one ten and
Speaker 4: Dallas go Derrekt Goddard got it sorry at plus one.
Speaker 3: Uh. I like uh, I like Jalen in this Yeah,
Speaker 3: it takes one penalty in the end zone to put
Speaker 3: him at the one, and that QB sneak is unguardable.
Speaker 3: So I like Jalen as anytime touchdown score, or Jalen
Speaker 3: just to be scrambling when they're in the red zone. Jayalen,
Speaker 3: you know, I like j you know, let me check
Speaker 3: something real quick. And by the way, listen, in general,
Speaker 3: we always suggest you bet with our friends at Fox Bet.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna tell you something here though. When it comes
Speaker 3: to these player prop markets, they have They are so
Speaker 3: widely different as far as what they'll give you at
Speaker 3: different places. Like at some books, Jalen is plus one
Speaker 3: oh five is supposed to minus one ten to score
Speaker 3: a touchdown. When it comes to player props, you absolutely
Speaker 3: should shop it around. You should chop around and find
Speaker 3: the best bet. The best value Mahomes and Hurts to
Speaker 3: both rush for a touchdown is ten to one. I
Speaker 3: like that bet.
Speaker 2: That's pretty cool.
Speaker 3: Ten to one for Mahomes and Hurts to both have
Speaker 3: a rushing touchdown in this game. All right, next, all.
Speaker 4: Right, So these stars set of quarterbacks will be throwing
Speaker 4: at a bunch. Who do you think is going to
Speaker 4: be getting the bulk of these yards? So we got
Speaker 4: aj Brown at over seventy one at over seventy one
Speaker 4: and a half at minus one twenty and Devon Smith
Speaker 4: over sixty one and a half at minus one thirty
Speaker 4: and Travis Kelcey over seventy nine and a half at
Speaker 4: minus one fifteen.
Speaker 3: I like Kelsey in this spot, of course. I think
Speaker 3: Kelsey's gonna have a huge game. I think this is
Speaker 3: it lined up for it. They're gonna have to target him.
Speaker 3: He has not had in these playoffs. Really a giant
Speaker 3: chunk play. Now, he's been incredibly productive, but against the Jags,
Speaker 3: for instance, he had fourteen catches for ninety eight yards.
Speaker 3: That's seven yards of catch, you know what I mean.
Speaker 3: So they have that many catches and not have one
Speaker 3: hundred yards. Crazy Patrick Mahomes just off Kelsey. Yeah, well
Speaker 3: they weren't all him, remember because Henny came in. But
Speaker 3: still the So I think Kelsey to me, this is
Speaker 3: a Travis Kelcey nine catch, one hundred and fifteen yard,
Speaker 3: one touchdown type of game. I think Travis Kelcey has
Speaker 3: a monster game in the Super Bowl. So I would
Speaker 3: take his over there. And again I've made it clear
Speaker 3: one of those Eagles. Those guys will go over probably,
Speaker 3: but I eyeing Jalen could potentially struggle a lot in
Speaker 3: this game. All right, next, All.
Speaker 4: Right, we're showing a lot of love to the pass
Speaker 4: catchers now, so let's not forget about the running backs.
Speaker 4: This is just rushing yards yep. Miles Sanders over fifty
Speaker 4: nine and a half at minus one twenty five, Isaiah
Speaker 4: Pachecko over forty nine and a half at minus one fifteen,
Speaker 4: and Jery McKinnon over twenty one and a half at
Speaker 4: minus one fifteen.
Speaker 2: That that's pretty nice. Jerick McKinnon.
Speaker 3: Well, the thing is this, they don't run him pass cat. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I get it, they don't run him a ton, But
Speaker 3: alls it takes is a couple decent ones. Eying Miles
Speaker 3: Sanders is the smarter bet here Pa check O and McKinnon.
Speaker 3: I would be interested in their total yards props, potentially
Speaker 3: more than just rushing yards. But I don't know that
Speaker 3: this is going to be a big Pa check O game.
Speaker 3: I think this is so McKinnon receiving yards, McKinnon to
Speaker 3: score a touchdown. I like Miles. The thing is this,
Speaker 3: if the Eagles get down big, then they might have
Speaker 3: to abandon the run somewhat, and that would hurt Miles Sanders. Yeah,
Speaker 3: but if we think this is gonna be a close game,
Speaker 3: they're gonna feed Miles Sanders a lot. Try to have
Speaker 3: long possessions. I like the Miles Sanders over there.
Speaker 4: All right, next, all right, let's put your prognostication skills
Speaker 4: to the test. What will the outcome of the first
Speaker 4: drive be? This is used to be one of my
Speaker 4: favorite bets. Yeah, put at plus one hundred, offensive touchdown
Speaker 4: at plus two seventy five field goal attempt at plus
Speaker 4: three twenty five.
Speaker 3: I hate I hate Adams. I don't know who's getting
Speaker 3: the ball first.
Speaker 2: This is my time.
Speaker 3: What do you think? What do you want to do?
Speaker 2: I definitely think it's gonna be a field goal.
Speaker 3: Field goal attempts. Yeah, you don't care who gets the.
Speaker 4: Ball, no, honestly, And I remember how you said something
Speaker 4: about the how I have no no edge on or
Speaker 4: I got. I've got no knowledge on what it would
Speaker 4: be heads and tails? Yeah, when like I have the
Speaker 4: knowledge that it's either going to be heads or tails.
Speaker 2: I think that's all the knowledge that I need. Right.
Speaker 3: But Okay, we're gonna get too four team thing later,
Speaker 3: but go ahead.
Speaker 4: I think there's are two good teams, and I think
Speaker 4: that no matter who gets the ball first, I can't
Speaker 4: really I don't see this being an opening drive touchdown,
Speaker 4: but I see them driving down the field a little bit,
Speaker 4: get getting scary, and they ended up being a field
Speaker 4: goal because they hold them.
Speaker 3: So I get that. What I would say is, if
Speaker 3: the Chiefs get the ball first, the Chiefs opening script
Speaker 3: those scripted first fifteen plays, particularly with extra time to
Speaker 3: prepare under Andy Reid, have been historically efficient. I also
Speaker 3: think the Chiefs understand that, unlike that Bengals game, they
Speaker 3: can't be settling for field goals. If the Chiefs get
Speaker 3: the ball first, I do like their chances of scoring
Speaker 3: a touchdown.
Speaker 4: I think they're going forward if they get like a
Speaker 4: fourth and short maybe yeah.
Speaker 3: And I think they're gonna listen. I just think they're
Speaker 3: gonna be uber efficient in the red zone. I think
Speaker 3: they're gonna know they have to be. This is a
Speaker 3: bet that if you want to make it, I would
Speaker 3: just wait until you see he's getting the ball first
Speaker 3: and they.
Speaker 2: That doesn't drop the numbers at all.
Speaker 3: No, the odds would change a little bit, you know
Speaker 3: what I mean, depending on But the thing is this,
Speaker 3: these two teams are so, according to Vegas evenly matched
Speaker 3: in this spot. I don't think it would change the
Speaker 3: odds drastically. It's not like when you have a mismatch
Speaker 3: and then the odds are kind of middled because they
Speaker 3: don't know who's gonna get the ball.
Speaker 4: Like, there's a way to do that, To do what
Speaker 4: I kind of like, I feel like you could kind
Speaker 4: of hedge on that.
Speaker 3: Well, if you're very confident, you could put a little
Speaker 3: bit of money on two outcomes if you're confident that
Speaker 3: one of them's gonna hit. But the problem is if
Speaker 3: the third possible outcome if a turnover or if you know,
Speaker 3: let's say you think it's gonna there's gonna be points
Speaker 3: and you have offensive touchdown or field goal attempts. You
Speaker 3: could do that, but then if there's a punt or
Speaker 3: a turnover, you lose both bets, you know what I mean.
Speaker 3: Like so you you could do it, but it would
Speaker 3: be difficult. All right, next, all.
Speaker 4: Right, this one is just a mix of long shots.
Speaker 4: So first off, we got kick to hit the post
Speaker 4: at plus four fifty, kicker makes a sixty sixty plus
Speaker 4: yard field goal at plus nine hundred, octopus at plus
Speaker 4: fourteen hundred.
Speaker 2: That's up.
Speaker 4: That, by the way, is a player to score a touchdown.
Speaker 4: Passing doesn't count. And the following is a two point conversion.
Speaker 3: Well where and they then they get they score the
Speaker 3: two point conversion. All right, I know this will shock you.
Speaker 3: I hate all of these. Uh none of them have
Speaker 3: good enough odds. The kick to hit the post maybe,
Speaker 3: but I don't. I hate all these. I'm not making
Speaker 3: any of these move on. That's dumb. It's all dumb stuff.
Speaker 3: I'm not sixty yard field goal. I need a lot.
Speaker 3: I need better odds.
Speaker 2: These pick six in this is there? Like will there
Speaker 2: be a pix? Sure? Yes?
Speaker 3: After yeah, of course no, demon's a your mind. Your
Speaker 3: brain is gonna melt when you see all of Yeah,
Speaker 3: there's for everything next.
Speaker 4: All right, So this one we call it the gatorade color.
Speaker 4: Only one coach wins, but we can all win if
Speaker 4: we gets the color of their gatorade shower Eagles wearing green,
Speaker 4: shees wearing white. So at first we first we got
Speaker 4: orange at plus three hundred, yellow or green at plus
Speaker 4: four hundred, red or pink at plus four fifty.
Speaker 3: All right, this is one of those bets like the
Speaker 3: time of the national anthem, or the first song that
Speaker 3: Rihanna's gonna sing, any of those things. I forbid you
Speaker 3: for making these bets unless you have inside info. Right,
Speaker 3: these are bets that they get enough dumb money on
Speaker 3: that they continue to put them up there even though
Speaker 3: certain people have the inside info, Like someone will know
Speaker 3: what color gatorade the Chiefs have and what color gatorade
Speaker 3: the Eagles have. And if you have that dead set,
Speaker 3: you can just bet that instead of bet the winner.
Speaker 3: You know what I mean.
Speaker 2: You just had a guy go over to the little
Speaker 2: thing and tell you.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, but they're so a big thing with national
Speaker 3: They do national anthem timing props, and it always leaks
Speaker 3: out how long the rehearsal went. There will be what
Speaker 3: will Rihanna's first song be, and it will leak out what,
Speaker 3: you know what, how her rehearsal went. These types of bets,
Speaker 3: if you don't have insight info, you just can't make
Speaker 3: them flatle you just can't make them all right, last
Speaker 3: last one?
Speaker 4: Oh well, after winning, after winding our coin saws on Thursday,
Speaker 4: I'm fully confident in picking the super Bowl coin flip.
Speaker 3: You no, I know? All right, So what are the options?
Speaker 4: Heads at minus one o five, Tails at minus one
Speaker 4: o five on its side at plus infinity.
Speaker 2: Okay, I'm putting a dollar on plus infinity.
Speaker 3: Okay, Well that bet doesn't exist, but I appreciate that happened.
Speaker 2: I'd go with heads.
Speaker 3: Why just because I won the last one? Okay, So
Speaker 3: that's your logic.
Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of people are gonna be like, tails
Speaker 2: never fails.
Speaker 3: So here's the thing. If you could get plus one
Speaker 3: oh two, don't. Then it would be a smart bet
Speaker 3: at plus one oh one, it would be a smart
Speaker 3: bet at even plus one hundred. It's it's a fine,
Speaker 3: but it's not. The thing is it's not. And so
Speaker 3: you and I could We're not going to, but we
Speaker 3: could do this and flip a coin one hundred times.
Speaker 3: And I promise you that if you're laying one oh
Speaker 3: five to me, you're going to lose. And so it
Speaker 3: is gambling just for the sake of gambling, with no
Speaker 3: skill or idea connected to it. And it can you
Speaker 3: can start down money before the game even starts. I
Speaker 3: can't recommend against this strongly enough. I'm telling you right
Speaker 3: now it is a dumb bet and a sign that
Speaker 3: you might have a gambling problem. If you're betting the
Speaker 3: Super Bowl coin toss the books love when you do it,
Speaker 3: you're laying one oh five on an even money thing
Speaker 3: that you can have no possible insight info on. I'm
Speaker 3: telling you it's a dumb bet. Speaking of dumb bets,
Speaker 3: you guys are gonna try to get me to make
Speaker 3: like a thirty to one prop bet. We'll do that.
Speaker 3: Drap the show next. What's right?
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 3: Welcome back in last segment of our last NFL gambling
Speaker 3: show of this football season. We've got the Chiefs plus
Speaker 3: a point and a half before we get to the offer.
Speaker 3: I there is a teaser out there that does go
Speaker 3: through all the key numbers and is worth at least
Speaker 3: looking at, which is teasing a seven point teaser of
Speaker 3: teasing the Chiefs up to plus eight and a half
Speaker 3: and teasing the total down to forty three and a half.
Speaker 3: So you would have the Chiefs getting more than eight,
Speaker 3: and the total would come through the forty seven, the
Speaker 3: forty eight, obviously, the forty five, the forty four. It
Speaker 3: wouldn't go through the forty two, which is another key
Speaker 3: to total number. But that's one at least worth looking at.
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna make that bet, but that is the
Speaker 3: logical teaser that's on the board. You can also do
Speaker 3: a six pointer, but then you don't get the teaser
Speaker 3: through the twenty four or the forty four. And again
Speaker 3: a lot of games end on forty four, so you'd
Speaker 3: like to get it through that is twenty four to
Speaker 3: twenty games. Obviously in there, you know there's a lot
Speaker 3: of combinations if you will that where you get twenty
Speaker 3: seven to seventeen ins on forty four. So that's why
Speaker 3: I would pay the little extra and have a seven
Speaker 3: point Taser down over forty three and a half and
Speaker 3: the Chiefs plus eight and a half. All right, Demanse,
Speaker 3: what's the offer?
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 4: So you haven't been having so much fun so far
Speaker 4: with all these player props. Yeah, there's a parlay that
Speaker 4: basically is exactly what you said. There's exactly how you
Speaker 4: said the Chiefs one. Sorry, so tell me what's wrong
Speaker 4: with this and we can even customize it for.
Speaker 2: You if you'd like.
Speaker 4: Okay, So, Mahomes super Bowl MVP at plus one twenty five,
Speaker 4: Chiefs money line at plus one oh five, Kelsey overs
Speaker 4: seventy nine and a half minus one fifteen at minus
Speaker 4: one fifteen. That's receiving yards obviously, Kelsey touchdown minus one thirty,
Speaker 4: and Mahomes over passing yards two hundred and eighty eight
Speaker 4: point five at minus one fifteen. All this combined for
Speaker 4: plus two thousand, seven hundred and fifty two.
Speaker 3: So twenty eight to one. Almost. I'm gonna tweak it
Speaker 3: slightly and it won't change the numbers on it significantly.
Speaker 3: We're gonna remove the Mahomes over passing yards and replace
Speaker 3: it with Mahomes over rushing yards. So Chiefs to win,
Speaker 3: Mahomes to win MVP, Kelsey to have over eighty yards,
Speaker 3: Kelsey to score a touchdown, and Mahomes to rush for
Speaker 3: over twenty and a half. That will actually probably slightly
Speaker 3: improve the odds because the Mahomes passing and the Kelsey
Speaker 3: receiving are so correlated that you're not gonna eat. So
Speaker 3: my guess is that puts that out about thirty to one.
Speaker 2: What is it?
Speaker 3: Right? Okay, so it doesn't improve him all that much,
Speaker 3: but it's at twenty eight to one. Okay, that's the
Speaker 3: That's that's what I'm doing that they all make that bet.
Speaker 3: I'll take that offer to end the year with me
Speaker 3: finally taking the offer. Demondy's refused to take the offer
Speaker 3: all year, mostly because he just forgets to, even though
Speaker 3: a few of them have hit. But this is one. No,
Speaker 3: I'm telling You've said it. You've said like you like
Speaker 3: the offers, but that you hadn't been placing them. I
Speaker 3: do like this one. Twenty eight to one. Mahomes has
Speaker 3: a big day, Kelsey has a big day, The Chiefs win,
Speaker 3: Mahomes wins Super Bowl MVP God Willing, and the Dynasty
Speaker 3: is alive and well there it is fun year gambling
Speaker 3: shows feel like we've done a lot, learned a lot,
Speaker 3: gave out some good picks, survived some rough stretches of
Speaker 3: the season, kept with our plan. Demond's learned to gamble
Speaker 3: whole thing. Overall, great success. Next time you hear from me,
Speaker 3: I'll be live in Arizona from the Super Bowl. Talk
Speaker 3: to you guys then, what's right