WEBVTT - Adobe Insights on Holiday Shopping 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.440 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Charle Masser and I'm 0:00:04.440 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:09.799 you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.640 clus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:17.119 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:20.000 analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.200 Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.120 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.840 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:31.319 YouTube and now also on Bloomberg Quick Take. Talking about 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.320 those retail names and how they are trading. There's a 0:00:33.320 --> 0:00:37.720 Bloomberg opinion piece today that talked about Black Friday fatigue, 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:40.280 how it's a warning sign for retail. In the column, 0:00:40.320 --> 0:00:42.479 it was noted online sales during the crucial kickoff to 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:45.360 the holiday season reaching though a record nine point one billion. 0:00:45.760 --> 0:00:48.320 This is according to Adobe Analytics, but the two point 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:51.600 three percent increase from last year's supply chain crunched season 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:56.280 tep it compared with thirteen percent in nine in twenty 0:00:56.360 --> 0:01:00.440 nine uh nineteen, So in in store traffic about apparently 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:03.160 similarly insipid. So let's see what our next guest has 0:01:03.200 --> 0:01:05.000 to say about all of this, because he has tons 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:08.959 of data that makes him an expert on holiday retail shopping. 0:01:09.000 --> 0:01:11.759 Back with us, we welcome Patrick Brown, VP of Growth 0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:14.400 Marketing and Insights over at Adobe. He's with us on 0:01:14.440 --> 0:01:18.920 the phone from Burlingame, California. So Patrick, nice to be 0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:23.440 with you again. Um, how are you. I'm doing fine. 0:01:23.520 --> 0:01:25.160 Nice to chat with you a getting Carol So tell 0:01:25.240 --> 0:01:28.440 us you were on with us in early October, talked 0:01:28.440 --> 0:01:31.600 to us about the retail environment, how it's changed, gotten better, 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:36.800 gotten worse since then. Yeah, So, I mean we've seen, uh, 0:01:37.080 --> 0:01:40.399 you know, the strength leading into Black Friday, you know, 0:01:40.640 --> 0:01:44.000 was really driven by the discounting, and discounting started each year. 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:46.200 It seems to start earlier and earlier. In this year, 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:49.280 you know, we saw consumers or retailers rather starting to 0:01:49.320 --> 0:01:51.760 discount as early as October when we had a Prime Day. 0:01:51.800 --> 0:01:54.760 And what we've seen is those discounts just stayed low 0:01:54.800 --> 0:01:58.200 and they've stayed you know, continuing through the Black Friday 0:01:58.240 --> 0:02:01.480 and well Black Friday year over years, you know, was 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:04.520 was only a two point U up year a year. 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:06.760 It was it did exceed nine billion online. And what's 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:09.800 happening now through the weekend is we're seeing the demand 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:14.160 actually online accelerate. So Saturday and Sunday we saw the 0:02:14.240 --> 0:02:17.960 equivalent of a Black Friday in sales nine point five billion, 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:20.639 which is about four point four percent year of a year. 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:23.480 So and then leading into Cyber Monday, where we think 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:26.120 the strength is going to continue on to be about 0:02:26.120 --> 0:02:28.240 a five percent year of a year growth. So I 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:31.600 think as as retailers continue to deeply discount and figure 0:02:31.600 --> 0:02:34.760 out where consumers are are are um, you know, have 0:02:34.880 --> 0:02:37.679 got some demand across some categories like toys, they're they're 0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:40.960 leaning into the discounts and driving some growth. Patrick when 0:02:41.000 --> 0:02:43.160 I hear the word discount as as a cheap skate 0:02:43.280 --> 0:02:46.440 or I guess frugal shopper some Sunday called me I 0:02:47.600 --> 0:02:51.040 my year's percuff at discount. But are there any certain 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:55.280 categories where you're likely to get better discounts this year? 0:02:55.400 --> 0:02:57.720 And are are they all gone there there's still discounts 0:02:57.720 --> 0:03:00.640 available for the rest of the season. Well, it's a 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:02.880 great question, and I think smart shopper is the right 0:03:03.000 --> 0:03:06.480 the right word. I'm similar. I mean, we've seen. The 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:08.639 discounts started, like I mentioned in kind of with Prime 0:03:08.720 --> 0:03:12.160 Day in October, and then what's happened is for categories, 0:03:12.280 --> 0:03:16.040 especially around Cyber Monday, where you see electronics like traditionally 0:03:16.040 --> 0:03:22.359 has been really core deeply discounted category discounts um but 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:25.359 toys continues to kind of rule the day for Black Friday, 0:03:25.360 --> 0:03:27.239 answer the weekends or we see up to thirty three 0:03:27.240 --> 0:03:32.359 percent discounts, but sporting goods down jewelry. Interestingly, one of 0:03:32.400 --> 0:03:34.760 the categories that we're also seeing come up as as 0:03:34.800 --> 0:03:38.280 consumers are more comfortable buying larger products online is furniture. 0:03:38.320 --> 0:03:41.280 Furniture and appliances. Believe it or not, we're seeing discounts 0:03:41.280 --> 0:03:43.320 and things in demand work discounts or in the ten 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:45.840 to fifteen percent or even those products. Do I have 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:49.080 to wait twelve months six months to get my couch? 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:52.640 I hope I do that well, thankfully. I think you 0:03:52.640 --> 0:03:54.880 know last year it was all about there wasn't really 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:57.560 very good discounting, and it was all because of supply chain. 0:03:57.640 --> 0:04:00.560 Retailers just didn't have things in their shelves and distribution 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:02.800 centers to to fulfill some of the demands, so they 0:04:02.800 --> 0:04:05.280 had to keep prices higher. I think in some cases 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:07.400 retailers are working off a bit of an inventory glott, 0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:10.800 so they are using this to manage some of their demand. There. 0:04:11.840 --> 0:04:15.760 They're they're spurring growth with with with with lower prices. 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:17.440 But I think you will actually get your couch and 0:04:17.440 --> 0:04:19.400 it won't be it won't be eight months. Hey, one 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:21.120 thing I want to ask you if you have any thoughts. 0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:24.160 I mean, if this extreme discounting continues, and I think 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:26.560 about the retailers, what that means for margins and what 0:04:26.600 --> 0:04:29.520 kind of numbers will see ultimately when they in the 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:32.360 new year report their fourth quarter numbers. Because I was 0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:35.320 in Sacks just walking through on Friday and Black Friday, 0:04:35.400 --> 0:04:37.760 didn't buy a thing, but spend a hundred and fifty 0:04:37.760 --> 0:04:40.320 you get a seventy five gift card, and I'm thinking, Wow, 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:42.919 that's great for the consumer. It also guarantees you're going 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:45.080 to come back and spend. But I mean that's got 0:04:45.200 --> 0:04:50.000 to hurt retailers. Well, I mean they are managing their inventories. 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:51.680 I think, like you're alluding to it, so they're able 0:04:51.720 --> 0:04:53.200 to kind of, you know, it's better to sell some 0:04:53.200 --> 0:04:55.320 product and drive some future growth and drive some lt 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:59.039 V where somebody can come back and potentially be a 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:01.680 future shopper, even even in the in the coming year. 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:03.839 I think interestingly, even though if you're in your in 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:05.839 the store, one of the things that we're observing, or 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:09.760 maybe it's the World Cup related, mobile shopping is eclipsed 0:05:10.800 --> 0:05:13.360 the sales through Black Friday and through the weekend. So 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:16.200 even as people have been out there still purchasing, maybe 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:18.080 not in the store, but they're buying online and they're 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:20.040 just finding themselves. The way that they're buying is much 0:05:20.120 --> 0:05:23.280 more fluid, and so I think that retailers are driving 0:05:23.360 --> 0:05:26.240 volume and driving demand. There is consumer demand out there. 0:05:26.240 --> 0:05:29.000 I think they're leading into into it with discounting, and 0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:31.559 I think that's likely to continue into the coming coming 0:05:31.560 --> 0:05:34.520 in December. Those cell phones are dangerous. I always say, 0:05:34.680 --> 0:05:39.599 you know, it's so easy to go click click, It's 0:05:39.600 --> 0:05:42.400 gotten so good the technology. I agree. So your spouse 0:05:42.480 --> 0:05:44.080 is like, do you do you know what? You just did? 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:47.600 It like the last twenty minutes, Um, Patrick Brown, good 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:49.280 to check in with you. Hopefully we will again over 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:51.480 the Holiday's VP of Growth Marketing and Insights over to 0:05:51.440 --> 0:05:55.240 Adobe on the phone from California. This is Bloomberg Business 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:59.200 Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:02.919 on Bloomberg Radio. Nearly impossible to miss the video and 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:06.160 pictures and stories about the protests that I've erupted against 0:06:06.200 --> 0:06:08.560 China's COVID zero strategy. We were talking about it with 0:06:08.600 --> 0:06:11.279 our TV colleagues in terms of the market impact. We 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:14.599 talked about it earlier about Apple specifically, but it does 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:17.279 represent one of the most significant challenges to Communist Party 0:06:17.360 --> 0:06:20.240 rules since the Tianamen Crisis more than thirty years ago. 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:23.599 So great to have a voice back with us, a 0:06:23.600 --> 0:06:25.800 member of the Bloomberg family. To be quite honest, he's 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:28.600 back in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Andy Brown, former 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:31.800 editorial director at Bloomberg New Economy, spent three decades in 0:06:31.880 --> 0:06:34.680 Asia's both China editor and columnist for The Wall Street Journal. 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:38.120 Pulitzer Prize winning journalist. He leads the China Hub as 0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:41.799 a partner at Brunswick Group today, a critical issues advisory firms. 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:45.080 So so grateful that you came back to Bloomberg to 0:06:45.120 --> 0:06:51.239 talk with us, Andy again. So, the disruptions, the protests, 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.440 how do you think President g is kind of what's 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:58.480 the calculus around that for him. But first of all, Carol, 0:06:58.560 --> 0:07:02.400 it's great to be back. Thanks for having me. Um. 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:07.480 So this is historic, the events in China over the weekend, 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:12.160 and I think it is the beginning of the end 0:07:12.440 --> 0:07:16.000 of COVID zero. And it is going to be I fear, 0:07:16.120 --> 0:07:25.760 a messy, chaotic and deadly unwinding of an irrational, poorly conceived, 0:07:25.800 --> 0:07:31.000 and and disastrously executed policy that has Si jinpings name 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:34.600 all over it. He owns it, and he owns the 0:07:34.680 --> 0:07:39.440 public outrage that led to this, to these street protests 0:07:39.440 --> 0:07:45.280 and campus protests all all over all over China over 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:49.720 the weekend. Look, it's an indictment of she himself, but 0:07:49.760 --> 0:07:53.040 it's also an indictment of the system that he set 0:07:53.160 --> 0:07:57.840 up UM. And it is a top down, heavy handed, 0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:06.600 personalized system, UM, inflexible, ideological, highly politicized, at times brutal, 0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:12.040 and the system failed and it's failed catastrophically. And you know, 0:08:12.080 --> 0:08:17.040 the irony is that it has triggered precisely the thing 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:22.040 that see jimping most fears. So you know, for the 0:08:22.120 --> 0:08:26.560 first time protest right, well, protest, but the type of protests, 0:08:26.600 --> 0:08:31.120 so you know, their protests in China occur all the time. Okay, 0:08:31.160 --> 0:08:35.280 but they're you they're almost always localized single issue protests. Uh. 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:38.360 You know, workers aren't getting paid in a factory or 0:08:38.520 --> 0:08:41.559 in a rural area. You know, some government connected business 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:45.319 has grabbed your land. A lot of protests, um this 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:48.040 is but they're never they're never networked, right, and and 0:08:48.080 --> 0:08:53.880 they're very easily contained. This These are nationwide protests that 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:58.040 bring together disparate groups of people, poor people, rich people, 0:08:58.559 --> 0:09:03.440 students work together for a common cause, and that is 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:08.800 to defeat COVID zero, which has led to enormous amounts 0:09:08.840 --> 0:09:12.400 of frustration within the population. And the trigger for this 0:09:12.640 --> 0:09:15.079 was a fire in the room chet in an apartment 0:09:15.120 --> 0:09:18.040 blog killed at least ten people, including we see the 0:09:18.080 --> 0:09:21.319 picture of this lovely weaker lady and and and and 0:09:21.360 --> 0:09:25.680 her children. And the suspicion was that they had got 0:09:25.720 --> 0:09:29.600 trapped in their apartment by COVID restrictions. So fire exit's 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:32.760 being blocked or you know, in these concrete barriers to 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:35.160 get placed around blox of the fire trucks couldn't get 0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:38.240 in and extinguished the blaze. And this trigger is something 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:42.640 very deep, very emotional. You know that that that lady 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:47.640 was was everybody's mother. Everybody's sister, you know, everybody's wife. 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:50.800 Those children could have been my kids. Because you've got 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:53.560 four hundred million people in China now living under some 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:58.480 kind of a lockdown. Many of those in precisely those conditions. 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:00.720 You know, their front doors have been well did close 0:10:00.840 --> 0:10:03.560 because they can't get out, and people live in fear 0:10:03.600 --> 0:10:06.760 and have been living in fear now for a long time. 0:10:07.240 --> 0:10:10.000 And so you know, this five just just triggered this, 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:13.880 this this swelling sort of surge of anger right across 0:10:13.920 --> 0:10:15.920 the country, and it was so big, it wasn't you 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:18.080 know how how clever they are and how how you 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:22.600 know efficient they are blocking discussion on social media. This 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:26.600 out this outbreak a bust was was was just so 0:10:26.679 --> 0:10:30.280 passionate that they couldn't contain it. Um. I was amazing, 0:10:30.360 --> 0:10:32.080 like the amount of video and pictures that we were 0:10:32.080 --> 0:10:34.760 able to all see right throughout the weekend. Yeah. Well, 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:37.240 and I wonder what the next few days look like. 0:10:37.280 --> 0:10:39.000 Do you think, I mean, will there be an effort 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:43.160 to suppress these protests, to put them down and and 0:10:43.200 --> 0:10:46.480 sort of put people in jail and and counterattack against 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:49.680 the protesters. Um, it seems like it could get ugly 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:53.800 in the next few days. You know, my, his his his, 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:58.560 the realities she jimping has no good options here, okay, 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:04.520 he only has tough decisions, difficult trade offs. So I 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:07.520 am I'm pretty sure that with every fiber of his 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:11.280 body he wants to crack down. Okay. I mean he 0:11:11.440 --> 0:11:14.360 is haunted by the collapse of the Soviet Union, which 0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:18.240 you know he blames. They lost their ideology, abandoned style 0:11:18.280 --> 0:11:21.320 and repudiated style, and but they lost controls of the 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:24.959 levers of power they compromised, you know, Glass, Gnast and 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:28.520 PERISTROI he's absolutely determined that that is not going to happen. 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:30.600 And I say he doesn't. He doesn't want his policy, 0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:34.120 his signature policy, to be derailed, to be challenged by 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:37.800 street protests. And I'm pretty sure that they are already now, 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:41.840 you know, going after some of these leaders of the protest. 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:45.360 But here's the thing. The more, you know, if if 0:11:45.360 --> 0:11:49.960 he cracks down violently, you know, he he could he 0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:54.120 could promote an even bigger social explosion. People have had enough. 0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:56.840 I mean, they've they're really up to here with with 0:11:56.960 --> 0:12:00.160 zero COVID. Now, on the other hand, if he opens 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:04.240 up and opens up too quickly, uh, he risks, an 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:08.400 explosion in cases and and and mass death. Uh. You know, 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:11.240 even under the most optimistic scenarios, if if they opened 0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:14.960 up like Taiwan dead or Singapore, did you know, because 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:17.800 of the infectiousness of om Crown, you know, and the 0:12:17.880 --> 0:12:21.200 vulnerabilities that you have in and even a highly vaccinated 0:12:21.720 --> 0:12:23.880 uh society, you're still going to get you know, a 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:27.800 million or more death. Now that that's dynamite and pig 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:31.280 you know, the Americans lost a million, Uh, the Europeans 0:12:31.320 --> 0:12:34.640 lost a million. This proves you know, the the decadence 0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:37.560 and incompetence and the corruption of their system. Their their 0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:40.240 careless system. But we in China have to have a 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:43.080 have a superior system. You know, nobody, very few people 0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:46.560 died outside of the original outbreak. So he's he's going 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:49.439 to be very very careful. And but you know, look 0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:53.800 uh this, you know, the real problem here is that 0:12:53.800 --> 0:12:57.000 there has been a staggering failure and it is the 0:12:57.120 --> 0:13:00.960 failure to build defenses against om Crown that you know, 0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:05.440 they've been so fixated on, you know, on zero COVID 0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:08.760 that they haven't invested in I see you beds in 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:16.720 train specialist medical staff. Most importantly, they haven't adequately vaccinated 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:19.880 the elderly population, you know, so, and and of course 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:22.800 they have no natural immunity. Now, so how do you 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:25.199 like a lot of I've been hearing a lot of 0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:28.000 commentary that this isn't another Tianamen square. But could it 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:33.360 get to that point that a bad comparison. Yeah, Look, 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:36.640 we've we've moved on UM and and look, I wouldn't 0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:39.080 rule I wouldn't rule anything out, but we've moved on. 0:13:39.200 --> 0:13:44.400 The government UM has far far more sophisticated tools now 0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:47.320 to counter dissent than they ever did back then. As 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:50.320 I say, I'm pretty sure. Look, every square inch of 0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:54.040 every city in China uh is watched by by a camera. 0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:56.480 They already know you know who the leaders of these 0:13:56.520 --> 0:14:02.960 protests were, voice recognition, recognition, gate recognition. They're probably in 0:14:03.040 --> 0:14:07.000 touch now with their networks, with their professors, with their colleagues, 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:10.760 with their with their families. But you know, here's the 0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:15.760 other thing, Um, the protesters are also pretty clever too, 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:20.920 and they've shown a tremendous amount of ingenuity. So you 0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:24.120 see these these students at Qinghua. This is a crazy 0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:27.200 one where they they're holding up a banner with a 0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:31.280 mathematical equation. I guess you need to be a mathema 0:14:31.320 --> 0:14:33.200 and I'm not. You need to be a mathematician to 0:14:33.320 --> 0:14:39.080 understand that this equation was written by a mathematician called Freeman. Okay, 0:14:39.280 --> 0:14:43.360 it's Freeman's equations. There was this sort of subtle algebraic 0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:47.880 cry for liberty, you know, blank sheets of paper and 0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:51.520 so on. Is this is g at risk of losing 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:54.880 some of his political cloud, which he just cemented, you 0:14:54.920 --> 0:15:00.440 know recently, you know, his his his more in his 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:03.040 governance style, and now are going to be open to 0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:09.600 much greater scrutiny on a global stage, well domestic, domestically, domestically, 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:11.480 you know, I mean here, here's here's the operation. Here's 0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:14.720 here's the the operating model for Shi jimpings China. Okay. 0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:20.440 And it starts with this vast institutional capacity, endless sums 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:25.280 of money, you know, bottomless pit of of of of resources. Um. 0:15:25.560 --> 0:15:30.240 It's all powered by high technology and animated by this 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:36.040 whole of nation, you know, mass mobilization. It's an awesome machine, right, 0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:39.240 but you know, and and and it's capable of great good. 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:42.840 You know, you aim this machine at the problem of poverty, 0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:45.480 and you know you eliminate absolute poverty and they've done 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:49.680 it right. And or you aim this machine at building 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:53.360 well class infrastructure and you get within a few years, 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:56.440 like the most extensive high speed train network in the world. 0:15:56.720 --> 0:16:00.320 But it's also capable of great harm. Right, So you 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.200 you aim this machine at Shin John and you get 0:16:03.240 --> 0:16:06.280 the horrors of you know, internment camps in a million weeks. 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:09.120 You know, you aim this machine at COVID and you 0:16:09.160 --> 0:16:12.640 get COVID zero. Okay, and and and it's the faction. 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:17.200 But it actually shows the limitations of this operating model 0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:22.000 because it has clearly failed, you know, against against COVID. Andy. 0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:25.680 Do you think if China had accepted the Western vaccines, 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:28.320 the Maderna and viasor vaccines, would would it be a 0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:31.920 whole different scenario here? Would would the they'd be able 0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:35.040 to open a lot, a lot less risky than they 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:39.360 are now. You know, I think people exaggerate this point. 0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:44.160 Uh Look, it's baffling, right why they didn't take mRNA vaccine. 0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:48.000 It's the best in class vaccine, but it's not. It's 0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:51.840 not the game change that people say it. It might 0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:55.960 be Chinese vaccines are okay, they're fine, right, they do 0:16:56.040 --> 0:17:00.640 a fine job. Um, they prevent serious illness, they and death. 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:04.959 But that's if you have your your three dose regimen, right, 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:07.159 you get your two vaccines and your boosted. The problem 0:17:07.320 --> 0:17:10.480 that they have is that they haven't insisted that the 0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:14.359 elderly get vaccinated. You know, I was in Singapore this 0:17:14.400 --> 0:17:17.080 time last year actually for the Bloomberg New Economy Form. 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:20.600 We were part of the reopening, and they were adamant 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:22.640 about that. They weren't going to reopen until they had 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:24.440 and I can't remember what it was, eighty or more 0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:26.800 percent of them elderly people, and they had a lot 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:29.840 of resistance, and they overcame that by telling the elderly, 0:17:29.880 --> 0:17:33.119 if you don't get vaccinated and you get ill, you're 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:36.240 gonna pay for your hospital treatment. Right. So they put 0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:38.679 a lot of pressure on but they focused on this, right. 0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:42.040 Why China hasn't focused on this is something of a mystery, well, um, 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:43.960 lots of mysteries. And it feels like every week there's 0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:47.080 something new coming out of China that certainly up ends things. 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:49.439 And we really appreciate you coming in to help us 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:51.600 make sense of it. So Andy, thank you, Thanks Carol, 0:17:51.640 --> 0:17:54.480 Thanks Mike. I always appreciate Andy Brown of course he 0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:58.159 is partner at Brunswick Group. He is a critical or 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:00.480 that is, a critical issues advisory firm and of course 0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:03.680 former editorial director of Bloomberg New Economy and so much more. 0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:06.639 We really appreciate it and thank you. This is Bloomberg 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:10.320 Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim 0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:14.600 Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So the holiday season often running, 0:18:14.600 --> 0:18:16.760 many haaded to spend time with families over this past 0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:18.640 week and a week and for perhaps the first time 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:21.320 in two or three years, because of the COVID pandemic 0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:23.800 right reunions. Yes, we know that, but Mike, it can 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:26.119 also be a charge time when it comes to conversations 0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:28.000 around the dinner table, and more right, we hear about 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:31.439 stress and all that good stuff. Absolutely no politics, please. 0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:34.359 My husband always used to be like, don't because I 0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:37.320 always used to bring upolitist at dinner. All right, So 0:18:37.400 --> 0:18:39.640 our next guest can probably help all of us with that. 0:18:40.119 --> 0:18:43.680 His book The Art of Conscious Conversations, Transforming How We talk, listen, 0:18:43.720 --> 0:18:47.359 and interact. Let's get to check uh Wisener. He is 0:18:47.920 --> 0:18:50.199 uh someone who has worked with leaders and their teams 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:53.480 at Google Forward, Tesla, Shell General Motors and Chrysler. He 0:18:53.600 --> 0:18:55.800 joins us on the phone on this Monday. Hey, Chuck, 0:18:56.240 --> 0:18:57.800 nice to have you here with us. Did I say 0:18:57.840 --> 0:19:02.200 your last name correctly? It's Wiser Weasner. Forgive me my bad? 0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:09.160 Um check we w I v W yeah. Okay, okay check. Well, 0:19:09.200 --> 0:19:11.640 good to have you here with us, Um, and let's 0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:14.800 talk about your book, because you have worked with a 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:17.639 lot of companies. Um, tell us about your background and 0:19:17.640 --> 0:19:21.200 the work that you've done in the past. Okay, Um. Well, 0:19:21.200 --> 0:19:23.800 I've actually formally trained as an architect, and I changed 0:19:23.840 --> 0:19:27.000 careers because I couldn't stand the conflict and I figured 0:19:27.040 --> 0:19:29.359 there was a better way to have conversations, and so 0:19:29.480 --> 0:19:32.600 I had studied, uh, the ontology of language and what 0:19:32.680 --> 0:19:35.560 didn't mediation training and all that. One thing led to 0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:38.479 another and I changed careers and then I've been working 0:19:38.800 --> 0:19:43.400 with the leaders and their teams for the last thirty years. So, Chuck, 0:19:43.440 --> 0:19:45.679 when you talk to these executives, what are what are 0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:49.199 sort of their goals to improve conversation? Is it you 0:19:49.240 --> 0:19:52.880 know that they want to have more personality, be more engaging. 0:19:52.960 --> 0:19:56.960 What are they looking to do? Well? It varies, but 0:19:57.040 --> 0:20:01.000 I think the biggest problem is offen. Uh, there's a 0:20:01.040 --> 0:20:05.280 lot of miscommunications and there's a lot of misunderstanding for 0:20:05.400 --> 0:20:09.639 leaders about how how powerful their voice is. UM. And 0:20:09.720 --> 0:20:12.040 I say that as an example, like a leader could 0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:13.640 be in a meeting and say, well, that was really 0:20:13.640 --> 0:20:15.960 a stupid idea, and they think they're just sort of 0:20:16.000 --> 0:20:19.480 bantering about and someone could leave that meeting thing, oh gosh, 0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:22.360 I'm I'm really in trouble. I might get fired tomorrow. 0:20:22.680 --> 0:20:26.480 So there there's authority issues and issues of power in 0:20:26.520 --> 0:20:29.399 their voice, and then there's the also a lot of 0:20:29.400 --> 0:20:33.879 of of leaders forget to create a good story and 0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:38.960 enough context for people to really understand what they're doing. UM. 0:20:39.119 --> 0:20:42.639 And so having a clear mission context and then being 0:20:42.760 --> 0:20:46.240 really really mindful of how to create safe psychological safety 0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:49.080 so you can have robust conversations. Is is one of 0:20:49.160 --> 0:20:51.920 the biggest things we work on. So check. I gotta 0:20:52.000 --> 0:20:54.680 say that, UM. In reading in and looking at your 0:20:54.680 --> 0:20:56.879 book and looking at your background and knowing that you 0:20:56.920 --> 0:21:00.640 worked with Tesla, I was dying to ask you, how 0:21:00.680 --> 0:21:08.760 do you think Elon Musk is doing well? Um, Ellen, 0:21:09.000 --> 0:21:12.359 I think needs to take a little breath and step 0:21:12.400 --> 0:21:18.840 back from the circus that he's involved in because building 0:21:18.840 --> 0:21:22.720 a car or building a rocket ship is really different 0:21:22.800 --> 0:21:27.000 than what he's entering into now. Um, it's such a 0:21:27.040 --> 0:21:30.440 different kind of a way. It's just such a social 0:21:30.480 --> 0:21:36.080 cultural um format that that every thing that he does 0:21:36.119 --> 0:21:39.240 and everything that he says again has carries a lot 0:21:39.280 --> 0:21:41.639 of authority, a lot of people listen to him, and 0:21:41.720 --> 0:21:45.480 so I think he needs to find a little bit 0:21:45.560 --> 0:21:48.679 more courage to step back and really decide what he 0:21:48.720 --> 0:21:53.640 wants to do and speak speak more mindfully. Yeah, Chuck, 0:21:53.640 --> 0:21:57.359 I wonder what you've learned about successful executives when it 0:21:57.400 --> 0:22:00.119 comes to sort of the art of conversation. Is it, know, 0:22:01.160 --> 0:22:04.560 dominating a conversation, Does that sort of correlate to success 0:22:04.600 --> 0:22:06.639 in the business world or is there more to it 0:22:06.680 --> 0:22:11.240 than that. I think that's the that's the biggest downside. Um. 0:22:11.520 --> 0:22:14.000 So leaders, leaders get to where they get to because 0:22:14.040 --> 0:22:17.560 they were expert engineers, are expert tech people or whatever, 0:22:18.000 --> 0:22:21.680 and then they get they get elevated and we actually 0:22:22.240 --> 0:22:25.720 are and they are rewarded for having the answers. But 0:22:25.760 --> 0:22:28.119 the how you get in an organization, the less you 0:22:28.160 --> 0:22:30.199 can have all the answers for all the problems that 0:22:30.240 --> 0:22:32.720 you face, or less you can know about everything that's 0:22:32.760 --> 0:22:37.359 going on in the organization. So actually a great book 0:22:37.400 --> 0:22:40.360 years ago called Good, Good to Great. Uh. They were 0:22:40.359 --> 0:22:43.720 trying to figure out why companies that became great instead 0:22:43.720 --> 0:22:46.040 of good? What happened and one and they didn't want 0:22:46.040 --> 0:22:47.760 to focus on the leader. But one thing they kept 0:22:47.800 --> 0:22:50.520 coming through and through and through is these leaders that 0:22:50.600 --> 0:22:53.960