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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Here for the latest on markets, which have been listening

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Speaker 2: very closely to the conversation in Stockholm. That's where Scott

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Speaker 2: Bessett and Jamison Greer, the Treasury Secretary and US Trade representative,

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Speaker 2: have just finished briefing reporters who waited hours for a

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Speaker 2: readout on their negotiating session with the Chinese, and we

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Speaker 2: want to bring you into that conference room in Stockholm

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Speaker 2: right now. Bloomberg Europe correspondent Oliver Crook was there for

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Speaker 2: the back and forth with Bessett and Greer and joins

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Speaker 2: us now with a live update. Give us a sense

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Speaker 2: of the mood in that room, Oliver. We appreciate your

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Speaker 2: reporting today. Took him a long time to come out,

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Speaker 2: and while Scott Besstt tried to frame this as a

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Speaker 2: productive meeting, there are questions about some of the sticking points.

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Speaker 3: That remain.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely I think you've got to correct read on the situation.

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Speaker 4: After two days of discussions that we've had between the

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Speaker 4: Vice Premier of China, Scott Best At the US Treasury

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Speaker 4: Secretary Ambassador gree on the trade side, trying to hammer

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Speaker 4: out the details to get what we were sort of

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Speaker 4: hoping was a rubber stamp ninety day extension to those

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Speaker 4: trade tariffs that are that have been put on hold

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Speaker 4: with China that are are slated to come back into

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Speaker 4: effect on August the twelfth, very very high rates of

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Speaker 4: tariff if they do not have an agreement. They were

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Speaker 4: not able to conclude that conversation and come to an agreement.

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Speaker 4: In the meetings over the last two days. They did

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Speaker 4: make a lot of positive signals about how conversations were going,

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Speaker 4: that they were very productive, that they are now going

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Speaker 4: to go back to Washington, DC to consult with the president,

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Speaker 4: and it sounds like this is really going to come

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Speaker 4: down to the President of the United States whether or

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Speaker 4: not he approves this extension. We do know that the

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Speaker 4: most likely outcome if there is an extent is another

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Speaker 4: ninety day extension. A lot of positive noises, again, there

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Speaker 4: was no mention of a possible summit between Trump and

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Speaker 4: Chiji Ping. It seems that we are pretty far from

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Speaker 4: that in terms of where we are on negotiations. That

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Speaker 4: is not something that appears eminent. And they also, I mean,

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Speaker 4: we also heard from Jameison Greer saying that they never

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Speaker 4: want to talk about magnets again as far as they're concerned,

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Speaker 4: that issue is settled with the Chinese and they'd like

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Speaker 4: to see those continue to flow. That has been agreed.

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Speaker 4: But I do think that one of the sort of

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Speaker 4: salient points here and one of the most important points,

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Speaker 4: was really the reiterating by the US Treasury Secretary about

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Speaker 4: this issue of Russian oil and secondary sanction something that

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Speaker 4: it sounds like we just heard again from the President

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Speaker 4: of the United States that if there is not meaningful

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Speaker 4: efforts from Vladimir Putin to come to a ceasefire in Ukraine,

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Speaker 4: that you could see those secondary sanctions implemented on Russia

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Speaker 4: that could be anywhere from one hundred percent tariffs on

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Speaker 4: anybody who's buying crude oil from Ussia to five hundred

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Speaker 4: percent tariffs on anybody who's buying fossil fuels from Russia.

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Speaker 4: And obviously China is a very large consumer there, and

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Speaker 4: he was saying that the Chinese, they talked about this.

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Speaker 4: The Chinese are very sort of concerned with their own

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Speaker 4: sovereignty and it's up to them if they want to

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Speaker 4: pay one hundred percent tariffs on Russian oil.

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Speaker 5: Yep, ten days from now, according to President Trump. Bloomberg's

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Speaker 5: Oliver Krook, reporting live for US from Stockholm. Thank you

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Speaker 5: so much, of course, the latest on the outcome of

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Speaker 5: talks between the US and China. An outcome, I think

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Speaker 5: it's fair to say remains uncertain. So on that note,

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Speaker 5: we go back now to Anna Ashton of Ashton Analytics,

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Speaker 5: a China expert who joined us earlier on Bloomberg TV

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Speaker 5: and Radio Anda. Now that we've heard from Bessett and

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Speaker 5: Greer about what was and was not discussed today, would

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Speaker 5: you describe this third round of talks as significant forward

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Speaker 5: progress or is this just stasis?

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Speaker 6: Gosh killy, you know, I think my biggest takeaway was

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Speaker 6: that it seems like the US is trying to kind

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Speaker 6: of flip the script. We talked before the press conference

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Speaker 6: about whether or not China had a decisive upper hand

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Speaker 6: because of its monopoly on rare earth and magnets, and

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Speaker 6: I said, yeah, I think they do because there's there's

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Speaker 6: more room for them to hold the line and and

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Speaker 6: also upper compromises than there is given the political pressures

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Speaker 6: for the US to hold the line or upper compromises

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Speaker 6: on export controls. I think they're trying to make it

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Speaker 6: not about export controls. They're trying to make this a

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Speaker 6: balanced rollback, as Latinix said of tariffs in exchange for

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Speaker 6: you know, a continued or increased flow of rare earth

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Speaker 6: and magnets. And then they're also throwing in the threat

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Speaker 6: of secondary sanctions.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 6: And you know, it seems like that's that seems like

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Speaker 6: a sound play on the part of the Trump administration

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Speaker 6: in terms of trying to find effective leverage. I think

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Speaker 6: that is effective leverage given the fact that the level

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Speaker 6: of tariffs that could be imposed in a snapback would

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Speaker 6: be really, really high and certainly would do damage to

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Speaker 6: a Chinese economy that is already kind of, you know,

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Speaker 6: struggling to gain momentum. I thought it was it's interesting

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Speaker 6: how how much Basant emphasized the success so far of

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Speaker 6: the tariff's strategy. It's clear that, you know, the the

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Speaker 6: point they're trying to drive home is that they're not

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Speaker 6: They're not backing away from their tariff's strategy, and tariffs

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Speaker 6: will continue to loom as a threat if China is

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Speaker 6: not sufficiently cooperative, and of course two thirty two tariffs

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Speaker 6: could be part of that.

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Speaker 2: Scott Bessen't seemed a bit mythed that the Chinese told

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Speaker 2: reporters they had an agreement to extend the deadline, reiterating

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Speaker 2: that only Donald Trump could approve that, and the President

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Speaker 2: has not made this clear. What did you think of

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Speaker 2: the body language, the tone. Are these actors getting along

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Speaker 2: or not?

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Speaker 6: I'm sure it was tense, and I think, you know,

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Speaker 6: the Chinese side has had its its opportunities to be

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Speaker 6: frustrated with the way that Beasant and other members of

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Speaker 6: the Trump administration have characterized previous rounds of talk, And

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Speaker 6: perhaps that's why Vice Commerce Minister Lee decided to go

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Speaker 6: ahead and lean into his interpretation of the outcome of

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Speaker 6: this this round of talks. You know, I could easily

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Speaker 6: see them, you know, caveating and reply to Bestn't that

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Speaker 6: they just meant an agreement in principle. Of course, they

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Speaker 6: just meant an agreement in principle. They both have to

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Speaker 6: go back to their respective leaders for approval of anything

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Speaker 6: they agree to.

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Speaker 2: Really great to have you with us, Ashton Ashton Analytics,

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Speaker 2: and many thanks for being so generous with your time

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Speaker 2: watching and listening to this conversation for us so we

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Speaker 2: can bring the best analysis to our viewers and listeners.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

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Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

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Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

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Speaker 1: New York State and just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Kayley, we want to mention another breaking story right now,

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Speaker 2: as we've alluded to a couple of times, Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: is briefing reporters on Air Force One, or at least

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Speaker 2: was a short time ago, making news not only on

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Speaker 2: trade but also on geopolitics specific to Russia. Remembering yesterday

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Speaker 2: he said he might move up the deadline for Russia

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Speaker 2: to reach peace in Ukraine, promising the secondary sanctions that

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Speaker 2: we were just talking about. He's now given it ten days.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump says Russia has ten more days to reach

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Speaker 2: a truce in Ukraine. It is moving oil prices right now.

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Speaker 2: We've seen crude oil move back above sixty eight dollars

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Speaker 2: a barrel on this headline, and we want to bring

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Speaker 2: in Mara Rudman for more on this, professor at the

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Speaker 2: University of Virginia's Miller Center, former US diplomat back on

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. Mara, your reaction following President Trump's

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Speaker 2: visit to Scotland this weekend to this more intense rhetoric

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Speaker 2: when it comes to Russia. He said that moving the

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Speaker 2: deadline has not resulted in any progress yet. Will this

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Speaker 2: headline make that different?

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Speaker 3: John Kay, good to be back with you. I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure that Donald Trump saying it, or saying it louder,

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Speaker 3: or shortening the number of days is what's going to

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Speaker 3: make the difference. I hope what Donald Trump is learning

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Speaker 3: and seeing is that the United States is much stronger

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Speaker 3: in whatever it says and whatever it moves to do

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Speaker 3: when we have friends and allies with us who are

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Speaker 3: like minded and approach and it's worth nurturing and building

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Speaker 3: and spending time and attention with those relationships. And I

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Speaker 3: hope some of what we're seeing from him as a

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Speaker 3: result of that.

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Speaker 5: Well, but what will the results of that ultimately be?

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Speaker 5: Mara It's one thing for President Trump's attitude to change,

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Speaker 5: it's entirely another for President Putin's. Do you expect that

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Speaker 5: will happen?

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Speaker 6: Well?

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Speaker 3: I think President Putin is constantly, not unlike President Trump,

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Speaker 3: calculating where his interests lie and how to achieve them.

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Speaker 3: And so the question of secondary sanctions, of how much pain, frankly,

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Speaker 3: can be inflicted on the Russian economy, and the extent

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Speaker 3: to which there's the capacity to keep or limit China

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Speaker 3: from helping or bailing out Russia in the way that

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Speaker 3: they have. All of those things are going to factor

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Speaker 3: into whether we ultimately see changes from Putin. I don't

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Speaker 3: think he is suicidal. He wants to continue to rule

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Speaker 3: and he wants his country to remain allied with him.

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Speaker 3: But it's not clear how quickly we will see turns

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Speaker 3: because of how deeply entrenched his issues are and going

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Speaker 3: into Ukraine, and how rightfully entrenched the Ukrainians are in

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Speaker 3: having the Russians depart and stop their offensive.

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Speaker 2: We've spent the bulk of our program today, Marrow talking

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Speaker 2: about trade, whether it's with regard to China, the EU,

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Speaker 2: or any other partner that is facing a deadline. Here

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Speaker 2: coming up next month, whether be the first or the twelfth,

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Speaker 2: And a lot of that talk has revolved around the

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Speaker 2: idea of the taco trade, the fact that the markets

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Speaker 2: are still near all time highs despite the great uncertainty,

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Speaker 2: and I wonder if there's an element of that here.

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Speaker 2: Does Vladimir Putin actually believe that Donald Trump will go

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Speaker 2: through with the threats that he's making.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a fair question. And there's plenty of reason

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Speaker 3: to see inconsistency in President Trump and his actions and

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Speaker 3: so both in terms of the economy and in terms

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Speaker 3: of how other world leaders look at and assess the

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Speaker 3: United States. It will be important for President Trump to

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Speaker 3: be able to display and act with some degree of

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Speaker 3: consistency and not constant not shivot his positions by sometimes

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Speaker 3: up to one hundred and eighty degrees overnight. And again,

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Speaker 3: we have too little in the mix now to know

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Speaker 3: whether he's capable of doing that.

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Speaker 6: Well.

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Speaker 5: As we consider President Trump's shifting position, we saw a

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Speaker 5: notable break yesterday between him and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin

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Speaker 5: Nyahu on another issue, which is the situation with hunger

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Speaker 5: in Gaza. Net Nyahu obviously not characterizing it as starvation.

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Speaker 5: President Trump says he begs to differ and thinks the

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Speaker 5: images don't lie. But he also just said a board

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Speaker 5: Air Force one that he thinks Israel could do a

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Speaker 5: good job with food centers in Gaza. How much do

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Speaker 5: you expect the pressure on Netanyahu and Israel specifically to

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Speaker 5: ramp up from President Trump?

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Speaker 3: Well, again, I think the question here is one of consistency,

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Speaker 3: because while I appreciate the fact that he acknowledged the

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Speaker 3: very real facts on the ground in terms of the

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Speaker 3: human lives and the suffering that is occurring in Gaza,

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Speaker 3: and was able to acknowledge that while Hamas has a

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Speaker 3: role in that for sure, and brought all of this

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Speaker 3: upon the people of Gaza, that Israel's actions are also culpable.

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Speaker 3: He needs to be able to continue with that kind

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Speaker 3: of approach to present solution sets, and there are some

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Speaker 3: within Israel who also want to see that who have

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Speaker 3: a different view than Prime Mister Netanyahu. Notable among those

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Speaker 3: who would support some of the solution sets. Others are

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Speaker 3: bringing forward to the Israeli military, who frankly wanted the

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Speaker 3: original system of food distribution and humanitarian aid to continue

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Speaker 3: and were overruled by the political elements of Prime Minister

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Speaker 3: Netanyahu and those around him.

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Speaker 5: All right. Mara Rudman, professor at the University of Virginia's

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Speaker 5: Miller Center and former US diplomat joining us here on

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Speaker 5: Balance of Power, Thank you so much. And President Trump

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Speaker 5: just speaking again on Gaza a board Air Force one

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Speaker 5: to reporter, saying those kids are starving and that everyone

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Speaker 5: thinks Gaza photos are horrible. But he also is commenting

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Speaker 5: on the other news we're dealing with, of course, the

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Speaker 5: US and China wrapping a second day of meetings in Stockholm,

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Speaker 5: President Trump saying that while we understand it wasn't discussed

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Speaker 5: at the meeting, he does think that Chinese President Xijinping

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Speaker 5: wants to meet and that will probably happen before the

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Speaker 5: end of the year.

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Speaker 2: Joe having taken the truth social earlier to make clear

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Speaker 2: that he was not asking for an invitation, that the

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Speaker 2: Chinese were in fact sending one. Whether that summit happens,

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Speaker 2: we'll let you know as we wait to learn much

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Speaker 2: more about the deal, the framework at least that was

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Speaker 2: struck in whether President Trump is going to sign off

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Speaker 2: on all of this. Thanks for listening to the Balance

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Speaker 2: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't

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Speaker 2: already at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 2: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington,

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Speaker 2: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com