1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jai Ley. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. It 5 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: is a perfect time to speak to Miranda car She's 6 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:36,280 Speaker 1: been wonderful giving us Chinese perspective, a real synthesis of 7 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 1: the politics, the culture, and of course all of trade 8 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:42,879 Speaker 1: and finance with China. She is with high tank. Miranda, 9 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:45,559 Speaker 1: wonderful to have you with us today. The presidents on 10 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 1: a modest victory lap on Mexico. He wants to extend 11 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 1: that over to China. He's not going to be able 12 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 1: to do it. What will be the obstruction the president 13 00:00:53,960 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: has in getting a Mexico like success out of China, Well, 14 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 1: China is not, so is more likely to stand up 15 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 1: to any sort of what it sees as US aggression 16 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:11,039 Speaker 1: UM or US demands rather than rather than Mexico UM. 17 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:14,560 Speaker 1: And you've seen a sort of increasing UM, sort of 18 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: withdrawal from UM, the U S relationships Sin sort of 19 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 1: wanting to wanting to stand up. So I think you 20 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:24,679 Speaker 1: know it's she is not going to sort of compete 21 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 1: to any costs, and so anything that the US puts 22 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,399 Speaker 1: pressure on China to do UM, you may see it's 23 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 1: going to be a very different meeting from from December. 24 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:38,040 Speaker 1: I have all my radar up, Miranda, because everyone's telling 25 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: me Hong Kong and protests are discreet and separate from 26 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 1: the trade discussion, are they? Yeah? I mean the Hong 27 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:51,639 Speaker 1: Kong is the is about extradition, and that's a pretty 28 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 1: much a Hong Kong China issue, and that's been sort 29 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: of bubbling away for some time. You've had a lot 30 00:01:56,200 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 1: of these protests UM small scale protests before UM. But 31 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,560 Speaker 1: this is more about sort of whether China is going 32 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 1: to UM legal system is going to then basically take 33 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 1: over take over Hong Kong, which would be a massive 34 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 1: issue for for for the for the for the territory itself. 35 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 1: But separating that, I mean that the US might want 36 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:18,079 Speaker 1: to get involved in that UM and and keep Hong 37 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:23,359 Speaker 1: Kong under under you know, international jurisdiction, which is which 38 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 1: is understandable, particularly from capital market perspective UM, but but 39 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: tying that within the trade war would get into even 40 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: messier territory so we're hoping they're keeping those types those 41 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 1: two things separate. Well, Miranda, the United States win again 42 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 1: expressing grave concern over Hong Kong legislation um at a 43 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: c the U. S. Coastal Guard, saying it's increased presidents 44 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 1: in the South China Sea. In response to complaints from 45 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: Ireland nations, Miranda, there are some issues out there that 46 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 1: go way beyond trade, and it just makes you think, 47 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:58,919 Speaker 1: and we've had this discussion on this program so many times, 48 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 1: that these issues will main no matter what happens at 49 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 1: the G twenty land of this month. Is that your 50 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:06,960 Speaker 1: view to Miranda, Well, yes, I mean you can get 51 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: the trade UM, some kind of trade agreement signed, and 52 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: so maybe you don't get the three hundred billion m 53 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 1: tariffs on the three billions of goods UM, and you 54 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: get some kind of report more and some kind of 55 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 1: agreement about how they can move forward on the on 56 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:25,080 Speaker 1: the agreement that that they've already been discussing. But what's 57 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:27,360 Speaker 1: happened over the you know, the last six months, is 58 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 1: that this idea that China has to much more go 59 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: it alone. UM. It's got the technology, UM, it's going 60 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 1: to have to rely on its own technologies. It's already 61 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 1: setting up, you know, sort of its own systems on 62 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 1: things like capital markets, even on the legal system as well, 63 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 1: trying to do an international international Court of Arbitration being 64 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: set up in Chienne. So this is China setting up 65 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 1: instead of coming to be part of the international community, 66 00:03:55,040 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: it's creating an alternative to to to the US centric system. 67 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 1: And that's going to continue. And and and that's the process 68 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 1: which has really been forced into the open by what's 69 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 1: happening in the trade war. Let's talk about the immediate 70 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:12,559 Speaker 1: policy setting in China. In the ex rate more specifically, 71 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 1: there were some people that believe that perhaps the Chinese 72 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,159 Speaker 1: would tolerate a Chinese currency that would begin to weaken 73 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: pass say seven patala the p boc overnight, sending its 74 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 1: reference rate a lot stronger, sending the fixing a lot stronger. Miranda, 75 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 1: is this a temporary issue ahead of the G twenty 76 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 1: to stabilize the currency? How do you frame some of 77 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 1: the action that we're seeing at the currency market right now. Well, 78 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 1: I think the G twenty is a factor um in 79 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 1: terms of yes, trying not to have that as an 80 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 1: issue in in in the talks. But an interesting point 81 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 1: which hasn't been brased. Is that the littles of speculation 82 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 1: on shore about monetary easing, UM potential interest rate cut. 83 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:55,039 Speaker 1: They're also they're talking about scrapping the benchmark completely. But 84 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 1: the potential monetary easing, whether it's an I R cut 85 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 1: or or or our our come, that's always seemed to 86 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 1: be putting pressure on the currency. So if they wanted 87 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:07,039 Speaker 1: to avoid a large scale drop, which we you know 88 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:11,359 Speaker 1: obviously UM all of the pressure on the currency already 89 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 1: plus monetaries and would would would potentially keep it past 90 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 1: seven quite quickly. This today's move was more seemed to 91 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 1: be about more defending it against the that that that 92 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 1: sort of domestic speculation. Miranda, I've got fourteen more questions. 93 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:26,919 Speaker 1: Will do this again soon. We're in the car with 94 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: high to UH this morning. It's good John to speak 95 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: to someone who can synthesize in like where we are 96 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:51,600 Speaker 1: away from the three zip codes of Wall Street. I 97 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:56,159 Speaker 1: think there's an advantage to being outside. Where is Jim 98 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 1: Pulson today, It's easy. I don't know where he's today. 99 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 1: He's usually in many app He joins us now littld 100 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:04,479 Speaker 1: weedon capital management. See, I am great to have you 101 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 1: with us on the program. Jim, where are you? I 102 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:12,360 Speaker 1: am there we go Bloomington preside. Tom Kain is very 103 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 1: happy about that. What's the view like from there looking 104 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 1: at New York right now? Well, John, I I'm I'm 105 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 1: fairly optimistic. I think that there's been such a obsession 106 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 1: with trade war and its potential negative fallout, and there 107 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: is some there's no doubt of that. But I think 108 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:36,479 Speaker 1: you ought to consider the amount of stimulus it's being 109 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: brought to the party here by police officials across the globe. Um. 110 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 1: You know, you can look at the yield curve as 111 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 1: it's inverted bad, but you can also look at it 112 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 1: is it's it's the entire curve is collapsed, and the 113 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 1: yield structure is a heck of a lot lower than 114 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 1: it was a year ago, not only here but globally, 115 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:00,840 Speaker 1: which is a huge boost of future economic ow You know, 116 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: you look around and you think yields are done a lot. 117 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:09,039 Speaker 1: Money supplies have been uh increased in this country. Fiscal 118 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 1: policy juice is way up. It's that deficite spending is 119 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 1: one percent greater right now as a percentage GDP than 120 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: it was the start of two thousand eighteen. Cost facing 121 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:22,760 Speaker 1: corporations are down. Come out of the your materials cost 122 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: or off unit labor cost is UH is falling here 123 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 1: in the last year, so they're down. Capital cost, yields 124 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 1: are down. Margins may start expanding in the second half, 125 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 1: and then you look at the consumer that just had 126 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 1: a huge surgeon net worth and real wages are climbing. 127 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 1: I think we're going to accelerate in the second half, 128 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 1: surprisingly despite trade wars. So Jim, where are you going 129 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 1: to be positioned to take advantage of that? Given the 130 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: market the equity market is already right up that what 131 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 1: are you doing well? I think? I think that you know, 132 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:56,840 Speaker 1: evaluations p motibles are down from where they were over 133 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 1: the last couple of years. How much do they down? 134 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 1: And then we're good point? How much are they down? Well? 135 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 1: The trailing multiple term was almost twenty three times in 136 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 1: January stupid, it's now slightly less than nineteen um and 137 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 1: if you look back since the current trailing multiple is 138 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 1: about uh average over that period of time. So they're 139 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 1: still upside room there, I think. And if you're look 140 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: at how much we've dropped the competitive yields, it makes 141 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 1: those valuations look even more more attractive. So when you 142 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:32,719 Speaker 1: look at the bond market right now, Jim, are you're 143 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: saying the treasury market is overvalued at the moment, And 144 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 1: where is it overvalued near the front end, the end 145 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 1: of the treasury curve that is pricing in the council 146 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 1: further out the ten years? What do you think I think, 147 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:47,800 Speaker 1: I'll think over the balance of this recoverage on that 148 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: the entire curve is overvalued at the moment. I'm not 149 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:54,840 Speaker 1: I think the Fed may well cut raids, um, but 150 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:58,679 Speaker 1: I think if we don't have a recession here, then 151 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 1: I think ultimately the entire curve is going to go 152 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 1: back up before this recovery ends. So I'd be i'd 153 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:09,680 Speaker 1: my treasures into this and um, not not that I 154 00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 1: wouldn't known some bonds, but I'd be looking at picking 155 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,679 Speaker 1: up a little cyclicality here and and and i'd look 156 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 1: at picking up international markets. I'd stay with some of 157 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 1: the popular winners to the tech and comms. I think 158 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,079 Speaker 1: in the balance that's recovery, they're going to continue down. 159 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:26,319 Speaker 1: So this is really important, Jim. And you know I 160 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 1: was making jokes about it, but I think you've got 161 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 1: a great perspective of what you know the c class 162 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:33,719 Speaker 1: he's doing away from the financial markets that John and 163 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 1: I are addicted to. What's the mood out there? I 164 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 1: mean our corporate officers. Is the given senior guy at 165 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 1: three M in Minneapolis, is he really distracted by all 166 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: this politics, trade fed stuff? You know, within the corporate world, 167 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 1: that's a great question. They're certainly concern mean, when I 168 00:09:56,120 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 1: talked to two companies, I pick up concern about where's 169 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: all his stuff going? You know, what, what's the president 170 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 1: truck trying to do here? But at the same time, 171 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 1: when I asked them how their businesses, they all say 172 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:13,960 Speaker 1: it's really good. I mean, the consumers are still pretty confident. 173 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:17,319 Speaker 1: You just saw that small business optimism number jump this 174 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 1: morning again. And at some point there's gonna be a 175 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: trade ward fatig if the economic data continues to come 176 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 1: in fairly healthy. I think investors are going to turn 177 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 1: back to that, and certainly the business community will which 178 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:33,440 Speaker 1: a and we're looking for them to act on that 179 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:35,560 Speaker 1: confidence the consumer as well. We see that in the 180 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 1: consumer confidence numbers still elevated, the business confidence numbers still elevated. 181 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: Are you seeing that confidence translat into anything though? That 182 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:45,959 Speaker 1: we can actually see in the U S economy becau. 183 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 1: As far as I can tell, retail sounds are all 184 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:51,599 Speaker 1: over the shop. Business investment is trending lower now or 185 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:53,959 Speaker 1: beginning to trend lower. Jim, When do we start to 186 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:56,719 Speaker 1: see the pickup and the optimism actually translate into real 187 00:10:56,760 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 1: economic activity. Well, I think a lot feel look at 188 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,079 Speaker 1: the trade wars and the call pork for slowing us down, John, 189 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: and I would argue it's policy typist. You know, we 190 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 1: tightened dramatically last year, not only the United States but globally, 191 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 1: and we got what you think we get. We got 192 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 1: to slow down, and oftentimes there's six to eight month 193 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 1: legs between policy shifts, and you're seeing it in the economy. 194 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 1: And you know, we didn't really start easy here or 195 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 1: globally until about the end of last year. So we're 196 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 1: just now entering the window where you would expect to 197 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:33,439 Speaker 1: see the big drop and rates the better, and monetary 198 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: and pistol stimulus starting to impact economic activity. And so 199 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 1: to see evidence of slowdown is not frightening to me. 200 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: It's kind of the leg result of what we did 201 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: last year. When you look forward, I think you're going 202 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 1: to start to see this policy juice. Now start to 203 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:52,680 Speaker 1: pick things up. What's the character Jim Paulson of this rally. 204 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,720 Speaker 1: Is it one big short cover off the gloom or 205 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 1: does it have the drift function that says real substance 206 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 1: to it in a would work higher? Um, I think 207 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: it's gonna work higher. I'm gonna and it might. I 208 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 1: think the next big catalyst would be if people give 209 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 1: up the imminent recession goes and is time. If we 210 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: start to see economic data improved, people are going to 211 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 1: start raising earning testimones. And that's where you really get 212 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 1: in the potential to have one nice last run. That's 213 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 1: a really important insight. Jim Paul Soon, Luthle, thank you 214 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:42,520 Speaker 1: so much, greatly appreciate this morning. John Fair and Tom 215 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: Keen on oil, Jeffrey curry with us, and maybe we'll 216 00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: get to come out of these as well. Here in 217 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:51,560 Speaker 1: a quick interview jeff end of two thousand eighteen, then 218 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 1: up and now down another fift. I'm starting to see 219 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 1: the articles about cheap gasoline. Is a gallon of gas 220 00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 1: is gonna be cheaper this summer? Uh? Based on our view, 221 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 1: the answer to that is yes. Um, really driving the 222 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:07,600 Speaker 1: weaker prices that you're in is going to be the 223 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:10,079 Speaker 1: new pipelines coming out of the Permian which are gonna 224 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 1: unleash a lot of shale onto the global market. And 225 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 1: in terms of thinking about the downside, market we see 226 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:18,839 Speaker 1: is going as low as sixty dollars a barrel by year, 227 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:24,320 Speaker 1: and that's fairly like a cup of coffee ago, which 228 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 1: one Jeff W. Brent On sixt On brent But in 229 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 1: terms of thinking about the the near term outlook, let's 230 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 1: go back to like February and that time period you 231 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:37,320 Speaker 1: had relatively um low supplies coming out out of the 232 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:41,319 Speaker 1: OPAC countries. Put that against strong robust demand and inventories 233 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:43,880 Speaker 1: were quite low. But Jeff, just to jump in, you 234 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 1: basically saying that cruise can remain flat for the rest 235 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:48,839 Speaker 1: of this year. I mean, we're gonna have some volatility, 236 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:50,839 Speaker 1: but you think where we are right now is basically 237 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 1: where we finished the year. Despite everyone's concerned about the 238 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 1: macro backdrop, you think this is it ready well. In 239 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 1: terms of thinking about the the OPEC policy, you know 240 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:02,319 Speaker 1: our base cases they roll over. And if you think 241 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:05,440 Speaker 1: about if I'm Saudi Arabia, how do I balance this market? 242 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 1: Either I respond to strong demand growth or a supply 243 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 1: disruption to raise production. You already had the supply disruptions 244 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 1: in the form of Iran and Venezuela. And if you 245 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 1: pointed out demand mixed, we had a framework of eighty 246 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 1: dollars of barrel. As you said, the facts changed, you 247 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 1: and others have changed. If you go back to our 248 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 1: base case, we had a downward drifting prices, but we 249 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 1: got a downward drifted prices. What is the action on 250 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 1: a fundamental basis that will staunch this decline? I think 251 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 1: a rollover on on Opec. The market started to rally 252 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 1: because they assumed, Okay, you're going to raise production, and 253 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 1: fear was that Russia was going to ramp up production 254 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 1: pursue a market share strategy in the face of these 255 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 1: rising shale shale supplies. Um, if you get a rollover 256 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 1: and there's evidence of the rollover, that's what pens this 257 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 1: price in around sixty five a barrel in three Q. 258 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: Then the pipes come online and that's when you really 259 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 1: unleash the new oil are back on the world again. 260 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 1: So told to me about the range that we're gonna 261 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 1: bounce around in and the sailing in the floor, and 262 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 1: what drives the sailing and what shapes the floor for 263 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: crewed in the coming six months. Jeff, Okay, if we 264 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 1: think about on the floor, we would put peg it 265 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 1: somewhere in the high fifty sixty dollars a barrel because 266 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 1: that's the number that OPEC is likely to defend um. 267 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 1: And then if we think about the ceiling on this, 268 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 1: you get up into that seventy seventy five range. You know, 269 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 1: if you started talking about the pressure it puts on demand, 270 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 1: the dollar is relatively strong, it starts to weaken e 271 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: M growth um and as we learned last year, you 272 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: get up in those higher levels, the demand damage is 273 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: six substantial enough to pull you back, which is why 274 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 1: we would tend to think that a more realistic range 275 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 1: over the third quarter somewhere around sixty. I think the 276 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 1: real key is how does the market accommodate those pipes 277 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 1: coming online? The inventories are building in the US, the 278 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 1: producers are anticipating those new pipes coming online. Once they 279 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 1: come online, you're gonna unleash that shale on the glod 280 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 1: because you're gonna only ship where's it going, New Orleans. 281 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: And then out what goes out, it goes out through 282 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:06,360 Speaker 1: Corpus Christi and the Gulf Coast range area. And you know, 283 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 1: in terms of thinking about the potential increase, you know 284 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 1: you're running in that two million barrel per day range. 285 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 1: You can go up to closer to three million barrels 286 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: per days. You know. Actually, put that with the product 287 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 1: at exports makes the US the largest exporter in the world. 288 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 1: Is there enough elasticity or mystery on the downside that 289 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 1: we could retest thirty dollars? Absolutely, but it's not going 290 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 1: to come from fundamentals, and a physical market's going to 291 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 1: come from positioning. That's how we got down to forty nine. 292 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:37,520 Speaker 1: We look back at December, nothing happened. It was big 293 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: swings and sentiment. How do we get there was a 294 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 1: fundamental shift in oil. We know that the US is 295 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 1: ramping up production anticipation of those pipes coming online. However, 296 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: sentiment put a lot of downrear pressure on the price 297 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 1: of all risky assets over the course of the last month. 298 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 1: So talk to us about the demand back drop of 299 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 1: the moment. Jeff, always love to get your insign on 300 00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 1: what you see happen to get shot at just the value. 301 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 1: By the way, every out there steady as she goes, 302 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 1: it's boring thee it showing up. There's not flashing lights anyway, 303 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:07,120 Speaker 1: as far as you can sell. March was a little 304 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:08,919 Speaker 1: bit weak, but April bounced back. The way I like 305 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 1: to think about it, the unconditional distribution on GDP and 306 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:15,120 Speaker 1: growth out there is large, but then you condition it 307 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:18,640 Speaker 1: on policy response, then it's very tight. You know, last 308 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 1: night we had the Chinese launch a local government special 309 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:24,520 Speaker 1: purpose bond for infrastructure span. It's going to be one 310 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:28,440 Speaker 1: to two trillion RMB. That offsets any weakness and investment 311 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:30,400 Speaker 1: that's driven by the trade war. And I think that's 312 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 1: really the key point here. Oh we look at weakness 313 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 1: of trade war, Hey, let's look at how they're going 314 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 1: to respond to it. They respond to it with this 315 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 1: big infrastructure investment net. It's pretty boring. Should John Tucker 316 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 1: get rid of the homer age to mean it? Hey? 317 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 1: I think I think he's gonna be, you know, cheap 318 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 1: at the pump over the summer months, but cruising the 319 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 1: start to towing my boat with it. You could get 320 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,159 Speaker 1: out there with your boat. And he just stepped up 321 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 1: to They have tacked on significant taxes in my home 322 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 1: state for road improvements. So you bought a vote quick 323 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 1: copper copper. Um, I'm long right now and we think 324 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:12,679 Speaker 1: you can go up to seven thousand. I think the 325 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:15,720 Speaker 1: key there really is getting you know, if we look 326 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: at the response to the trade, where the trade wars 327 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: created a lot of weak sentiment for medals. More broadly, Um, 328 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 1: and I think this morning you're up five in iron, 329 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 1: are off at this new bond issue and around infrastructor Um. 330 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:31,760 Speaker 1: The bottom line is the fundamentals are good, inventories are drawing, 331 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:36,360 Speaker 1: you have supplied disruptions. Um, he's often in futures are lifting, John, 332 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:38,359 Speaker 1: Do you see how Curry does that? I love catching up. 333 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:41,440 Speaker 1: It's just amazing. Come up, thirteen, up, fifteen futures just 334 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:45,879 Speaker 1: because Curry's job bone and optimism very importantly a lesser 335 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 1: oil price, which all together it's quite positive. Thank you. 336 00:18:51,200 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 1: Golden Sax. Richard Vines joins us from London. It's the 337 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 1: top one of the restaurants. Richard and I love the 338 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 1: idea that the trophy is taken down on the River 339 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 1: Loon in Lancashire, which to most of our listeners is 340 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 1: in a Beatles song. Let's begin with a simple idea. 341 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,920 Speaker 1: Where is Lancashire? Although to first have to begin with 342 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 1: the confession that I've never been to Indiana, but I 343 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:31,120 Speaker 1: have been to Lancashire. It's in the northwest of England. 344 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:33,919 Speaker 1: About if you went by calf Manchester you might know 345 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 1: it would be about an hour of Manchester. Okay, So 346 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 1: More Hall Restaurant takes a trophy. Is this an effort 347 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 1: by the judges of restaurants which is really arbitrary to 348 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 1: say we gotta go outside London. What's the trend that 349 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 1: gets you so far away from all the big money 350 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 1: on big restaurants in London. Well, these awards, votes on 351 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 1: by hundred and fifty chefs, food writers, restaurants has around 352 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:00,200 Speaker 1: the country, so there's no kind of controlling hands saying 353 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 1: it's got to be outside London. But this particular restaurant, 354 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 1: More Hall a young chef, Mark Burchell I. See young, 355 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 1: he's thirty eight. It's young to me. Young chef has 356 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 1: really made a splash. He's doing modern British food in 357 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 1: this beautiful sixteenth century house deep in the countryside, during 358 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,440 Speaker 1: five acres of grounds with lakes and so on. There's 359 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:20,120 Speaker 1: such a trick to get there. You're kind of being 360 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: ready to eat. What's he do? Is it like rules 361 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 1: up north. I mean this is a traditional English food. No, 362 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 1: it's modern British food, so things like ill with potato 363 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:32,280 Speaker 1: and lots of some forage stuff and local seasonal food. No, 364 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,919 Speaker 1: it's not not traditional at all. He worked at restaurant 365 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: Conlogue Clum for nine years. I don't know if you 366 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 1: know it. Another modern British chef. And this is a 367 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 1: very much a trend now to fairly simple food, not 368 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 1: lots of foams and lots of ingredients, just three or 369 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 1: four really good ingredients. What are they doing with the film. 370 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 1: I never understood film. Richard Vines word foam? Where did 371 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,359 Speaker 1: phone come from? Well, actually came from eld Woolly in Spain. 372 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:56,200 Speaker 1: That was the main thing. And I actually asked the 373 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:58,160 Speaker 1: chef there one time, what's with the foam and he said, 374 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 1: it's just one technique among others. It is a different 375 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: text U I suppose, and you kind of distill flavors, 376 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: but I don't think so many people are doing it. Now, 377 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 1: give us a state of London. How many people? You know? 378 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 1: You had all these people with their biases and all 379 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 1: that did London I quit themselves? Well in this survey, 380 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,080 Speaker 1: well London did pretty well. In the awards. So although 381 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 1: we let the first place go out in London, the 382 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 1: next four year old London restaurants, how happy to say, 383 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:24,680 Speaker 1: you know, London is doing amazing. There's so many great 384 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,879 Speaker 1: restaurants here at the moment, Okay, can we Paul Sweeney, 385 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 1: we gotta stop here and give a moment of honor 386 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 1: to Richard Vines because my team said to me, and 387 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,439 Speaker 1: they know I don't eat because I'm so busy doing everything, 388 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 1: they said, come on Vines as in order. Richard Vines, 389 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 1: you were instrumental in lining up the restaurants at our 390 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,639 Speaker 1: Queen Victoria's Street building. There's four or five six restaurants 391 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 1: or whatever it is. And I dined to Kims, which 392 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,879 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't even like this food, Richard Vines, 393 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:57,159 Speaker 1: And it was phenomenal. Who is a Wong? And what 394 00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:00,320 Speaker 1: is Kims? Kims in the restaurant by a chef called 395 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 1: Andrew Wong. And I'm happy, says both his und in 396 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 1: restaurants from the top one h a one came of 397 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 1: them Kim's sixty one. Kim's is based on Chinese roasting 398 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 1: and it's you've been there. It's quite an informal restaurant, 399 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,640 Speaker 1: just really good flavors. Price is not crazy for London either. 400 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,439 Speaker 1: Did you find I don't know, a reddle keeper of 401 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,440 Speaker 1: the Amax picked it up. That's what. That's what. That's 402 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:23,639 Speaker 1: what I know, Richard Vines. And the other thing I 403 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 1: had on my recent trip to uh London was I 404 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:31,199 Speaker 1: actually John Farrell maybe tried the full English breakfast and 405 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:35,359 Speaker 1: that incredible thing that's in a full English breakfast it's like, 406 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 1: you know, not the sausage bangers like pudding, what is that? 407 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:43,680 Speaker 1: Richard Vines. Help our American audience avoid this next trip 408 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,360 Speaker 1: over must not avoid it. It's an amazing thing. It's 409 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,160 Speaker 1: made from blood. It's so much flavor in there. It's 410 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,840 Speaker 1: a kind of vegans nightmare. But I love it, and 411 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 1: I think you need to spend more time over here, Tom. 412 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:56,520 Speaker 1: Where would you get a full English? I mean, I 413 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 1: know that's not on a hundred list of restaurants, but 414 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 1: where's Richard Vines? Full English performing very composition to help 415 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 1: you hawks more is probably the best for the English 416 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 1: in London and the opening in New York later this year, 417 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 1: so you'll be able to pat your black pudding with 418 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 1: the wow. Even needing to come to London. Uh, that's 419 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 1: grim Richard Vines with his folks as we celebrate the 420 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,199 Speaker 1: hundred best restaurants in England and one of them up 421 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 1: in Lancashire. From a John Lennon song of a few 422 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,240 Speaker 1: years ago, Richard vines, I must speak of the business 423 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 1: of restaurants. And of course we see Mr Oliver everyone 424 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 1: listening as a huge fan of his enthusiasm, his originality 425 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 1: and what he brought to like even you can make this, etcetera. 426 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,760 Speaker 1: Let's begin with the why Why did he have financial 427 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 1: difficulties with his restaurants? He overexpanded. It's a very tight market, 428 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 1: the mid market where he is, and companies including here, 429 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,879 Speaker 1: were paying far too higher price to get into the restaurants. 430 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,159 Speaker 1: Then there were the local taxes were going up and 431 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,120 Speaker 1: they just had very narrow margins. And when the when 432 00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,080 Speaker 1: the costs went up, they couldn't increase the prices and 433 00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 1: they got stuck. And I s Jamie Oliver, he's not 434 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 1: just a TV personnelity if you meet him is exactly 435 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 1: what you see on TV. He's such a nice guy. 436 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:05,920 Speaker 1: But the restaurants just went very good in the end. 437 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:10,400 Speaker 1: One final question, if I could, would you please explain 438 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:14,000 Speaker 1: tipping it. I literally had someone in London, Richard Vines, 439 00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,719 Speaker 1: say to me, no, don't tip a secture because I 440 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 1: don't get the money. I mean, what the waiters and 441 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,879 Speaker 1: waitresses do there. I want to give them more money 442 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 1: for their wonderful service, and I can't figure out how 443 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 1: to do it. In London, well, his service charge and 444 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:30,960 Speaker 1: almost all bills in the UK, So that kind of 445 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,199 Speaker 1: tipping or whatever you do in New York is not 446 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,760 Speaker 1: standard here. And there's a bit of controversy of a 447 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 1: Weatherly waits. All the restaurant gets the tip, and one 448 00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:40,760 Speaker 1: way to do it is just leave cash if you 449 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,960 Speaker 1: if you carry cash, I don't carry I mean you 450 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:45,680 Speaker 1: know that, you know, as Queen Elizabeth the first the 451 00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,080 Speaker 1: last time I was carrying. Guess, Richard, what are they 452 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 1: gonna do seriously about allowing us to use our cards 453 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 1: to compensate labor in restaurants. I mean it's like they're 454 00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:01,400 Speaker 1: almost anti waiter, anti waitress at bartender, Not that I'm 455 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:03,720 Speaker 1: ever at bars, but you know what, we wouldn't go 456 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,119 Speaker 1: to bars? Would be it varies some restaurant to restaurant. 457 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 1: The way to go, I think is to ask let 458 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,600 Speaker 1: Saba do you get the tip. But Hulks More, which 459 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,040 Speaker 1: we were talking about, has a very good record of 460 00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 1: looking off to staff and the staff get old. So 461 00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:17,679 Speaker 1: you have to get Hulks next time I'm in London, 462 00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,440 Speaker 1: Richard Vines, and I will go Paul Sweeney. I promise 463 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:27,359 Speaker 1: I'll try this, give it another go whatever, Richard Vines. 464 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 1: Go away at Queen Victoria's Street. Richard Vines, looking at 465 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,480 Speaker 1: the hundred best restaurants and a substantial drive north of 466 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 1: Manchester in Lancashire in a sixteenth century stone building, is 467 00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 1: the best food in England. Leonard Brushinski joins us right 468 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 1: now with Bloomberg opinion, not a bad alien. And when 469 00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:03,720 Speaker 1: the President of the United States retweets your peace, how 470 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:08,160 Speaker 1: did that happen? Well, they say his Twitter power is fading, 471 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:13,399 Speaker 1: so I'm not even getting a huge readership bump from tweet. 472 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 1: But thank you. Uh. I mean, in any case, I 473 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 1: think the point that President Trump made about the Euro 474 00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:27,320 Speaker 1: is incorrect and really was not in the column. Yeah, 475 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 1: let's point that out very seriously, folks. The presidents of 476 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,919 Speaker 1: Foreign Exchange Strategy, we made a joke of that earlier. 477 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:38,919 Speaker 1: Leend is decidedly not from Mr Braschitski's column to be 478 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:42,679 Speaker 1: official here, Lena, this is important. Can you state that 479 00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:46,679 Speaker 1: a too strong dollar has nothing to do with that 480 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:50,120 Speaker 1: Venice is going to sink into the Adriatic if anymore 481 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 1: tourists show up. Yes, that is exactly what I'm trying 482 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,919 Speaker 1: to say the inn the last five years, the euro 483 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:02,960 Speaker 1: has been pretty stable against the dollar, UM, and we've 484 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 1: still seen a huge tourist boom here in Europe, with 485 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 1: people mostly coming from more people mostly coming from China 486 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,400 Speaker 1: and other Asian countries. And also there's a lot of 487 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 1: internal tourism in the European Union. It's not the Americans, um, 488 00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,399 Speaker 1: you know, coming in droves because of a strong dollar, 489 00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 1: So the you know, the reasons for the tourist boom 490 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 1: here are different. Uh. The airline market, liberalization, the growing 491 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:40,200 Speaker 1: middle class in China. Uh, there's a lot of factors 492 00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 1: on the euro is not really among them. So lean 493 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:47,240 Speaker 1: and very interesting piece uh that you wrote. Just wondering 494 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,280 Speaker 1: what are some of the I mean net net I 495 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 1: mean tourism. Is it getting to be a net negative 496 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,080 Speaker 1: for some of these countries? Are some of these cities 497 00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:57,240 Speaker 1: where they is there any movement to try to curb 498 00:27:57,320 --> 00:27:59,040 Speaker 1: it to some degree, are managing a little bit a 499 00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:04,959 Speaker 1: little bit better. Yes, there's a UM. There was a 500 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:10,080 Speaker 1: major EU European Union report on over tourism last year 501 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:15,119 Speaker 1: that singled out a hundred and eight cities around the 502 00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,680 Speaker 1: world or places destinations around the world that suffer from 503 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,320 Speaker 1: over tourism, and forty one of these are in Europe. 504 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:26,560 Speaker 1: Europe takes about a third of the entire world global 505 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:32,400 Speaker 1: tourists flow. Uh. And so these forty one places, um 506 00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,920 Speaker 1: really don't have the infrastructure or sometimes even the physical 507 00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 1: space to deal with the crowds that they're attracting. And yes, 508 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:46,200 Speaker 1: they're trying to, you know, do things to spread people 509 00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:51,480 Speaker 1: out more evenly throughout the year, to market to people 510 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 1: who will stay longer and not just come on a 511 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:59,600 Speaker 1: cruise to some bark and spend a day. UM. And 512 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:03,560 Speaker 1: some times they're you know, actually trying to get people 513 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 1: to pay to um uh enter some of these landmark 514 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 1: areas that are overcrowded. UM, Well where does that stand? 515 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, the last time I was in Venice, 516 00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,400 Speaker 1: I didn't even bother going to the Doges Palace. The 517 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,800 Speaker 1: lines are so long and I was there, John Tucker, 518 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,760 Speaker 1: there was snow, you know, icebergs in the you know 519 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:27,239 Speaker 1: the harbor where where the boat just crashed Italy. This 520 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 1: is Venice, Italy. You know, I got to go. It's 521 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:33,480 Speaker 1: like a weekend. Venice is probably the worst of you know, 522 00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 1: seize the worst. So what are they gonna do? What 523 00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,520 Speaker 1: does Venice do besides the paltry tax race they did 524 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 1: earlier this year, they're I think they're not doing enough. 525 00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,560 Speaker 1: Um and it's it's just hard for them. You know, 526 00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,400 Speaker 1: the city with a population of fifty thousand, just think 527 00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:53,360 Speaker 1: about a fifty thousand of the trend like twenty million 528 00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,600 Speaker 1: touris okay, So come on, just like you said, you 529 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,480 Speaker 1: charge into mintance fee. It's like Disneyland, you charge a 530 00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:03,120 Speaker 1: hundred dollars per family. You know, you go over that 531 00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:06,760 Speaker 1: little restaurant behind the metropol, You go over there, you know, 532 00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:10,000 Speaker 1: you get your little meal. Well that's that's sort of 533 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:13,240 Speaker 1: what Bhutan, you know, the Kingdom of Bhutan, uh in 534 00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 1: the Himalayas is doing. They they have a tourists tax 535 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:21,040 Speaker 1: of two hundred dollars a day and obviously, yeah, Venice 536 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:24,200 Speaker 1: could do that as well, but you know that would 537 00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:28,080 Speaker 1: certainly generate a lot of bad press in terms of, 538 00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,000 Speaker 1: you know, it's pushing out the poorer people and just 539 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 1: opening up for the rich, which is not you know, 540 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:39,840 Speaker 1: it's not it's not good optics. Uh. And it's certainly 541 00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 1: not the message that Italy as a whole wants to 542 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:48,360 Speaker 1: stand out. So I think the only reason, you know, 543 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,800 Speaker 1: the only way for them to, you know, to fight 544 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:55,880 Speaker 1: this over abundance of tourists is to make it more 545 00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 1: expensive to fly there. And John Tucker, when you were 546 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:03,200 Speaker 1: in boot and you went from food shilling up to tempoo, 547 00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:08,040 Speaker 1: I mean, can we do this for the Jersey Shore 548 00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:10,880 Speaker 1: by the way the tourists in the summer oral data 549 00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:15,680 Speaker 1: labor day keep people? So later you raised the airline issue, 550 00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,200 Speaker 1: and I mean, I think you think about it from Asia, 551 00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,000 Speaker 1: that's where the discount airlines have really been sprouting up. So, 552 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:24,960 Speaker 1: you know, is it it simply an air fare raise? Um? 553 00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:30,080 Speaker 1: An airfare raise? Would I think do a lot, you know, 554 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:36,800 Speaker 1: get people to you know, think more carefully about how 555 00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:39,479 Speaker 1: many trips they want to take a careeer and you know, 556 00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,160 Speaker 1: where do they really want to go? Not just because 557 00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:45,960 Speaker 1: it's cheap and because the tickets are available, but because 558 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,840 Speaker 1: they really want to see a particular place. I mean, 559 00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 1: I think sort of uh, making it more of a 560 00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:58,320 Speaker 1: more of a serious investment to see would help. But 561 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:03,800 Speaker 1: in terms of the how raised these prices, uh, I 562 00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 1: think that sort of the air airline liberalization of the 563 00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:13,360 Speaker 1: last years could be perhaps rolled back a little and 564 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 1: and and certainly the you know, the the absence of 565 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:20,600 Speaker 1: a tacks on aviation fuel. Um, okay, you know it's 566 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,920 Speaker 1: not good for the environment either. Lending congratulations on the 567 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,120 Speaker 1: presidential tweet. Off your good work, Mr Braschiski rights for 568 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:31,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg opinion. Again, the president's tweet talking about eurovaluation and 569 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 1: particularly strong dollar was not in the Breshitski article is 570 00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:40,280 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and 571 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast 572 00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:49,959 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before 573 00:32:49,960 --> 00:33:01,600 Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.