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Speaker 1: What's going on everybody? Scott Bogman here for Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: to tell you my favorite picks and player props for

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Speaker 1: Week twelve of the college football season. Remember, if you

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Speaker 1: want to check in on my picks, you can over

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Speaker 1: at Bettingpros dot com slash Bogman, or you can look

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Speaker 1: for me on the Betting Pros app and follow along

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Speaker 1: with all the bets that I have for college football

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Speaker 1: and the NFL. So last week, taking a look back,

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Speaker 1: good on the picks four and two, started zero and two.

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Speaker 1: Wasn't too happy with that Miami. I'm just done with Miami.

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Speaker 1: We're not doing that again. Also, Minnesota couldn't hold up

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Speaker 1: against Rutgers. Weird one in the Big Ten. There the

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Speaker 1: touchdown calls. I was zero for two. Not a good

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Speaker 1: week on those five and five on the yardage props.

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Speaker 1: So just okay there. But let's get into what we

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Speaker 1: have four Week twelve. We're gonna start with one tonight,

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Speaker 1: Ucla at Washington under forty six and a half and

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Speaker 1: these teams are fourteen and five this season when playing

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Speaker 1: to the under. UCLA has played well recently, winning three

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Speaker 1: After that brutal stretch, Remember they had the number one

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Speaker 1: strength of schedule in college football. Well, they currently still

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Speaker 1: have it as well, but just a real bad stretch

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Speaker 1: to open up the season for UCLA. You really know

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Speaker 1: where they stood now, We know that they're pretty good,

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Speaker 1: but I think Washington at home should have an advantage.

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Speaker 1: They've struggled recently, going one to three in the last

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Speaker 1: four games, and twenty six is their highest team total

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Speaker 1: in that stretch, which is again, you know, we're not

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Speaker 1: picking a side here. Maybe Washington doesn't win this game,

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Speaker 1: maybe UCLA wins this game, but we like the under

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Speaker 1: either way here. Washington has played much better at home

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Speaker 1: this season. They have to win this game to get

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Speaker 1: to a bowl game, which is why I kind of

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Speaker 1: like their side here, even though I'm taking the under,

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Speaker 1: but I think that's going to make them play with

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Speaker 1: some passion on the defensive side against the UCLA team

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Speaker 1: that has been scoring some points here recently, because they

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Speaker 1: have to win this game to get to a bowl

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Speaker 1: because the only other game that they have this year

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Speaker 1: to qualify for a bowl is at number one Oregon,

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Speaker 1: so very important game for the Huskies, a lot on

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Speaker 1: the line for them. Their offense has been playing great.

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Speaker 1: UCLA's defense has been playing a little bit better recently

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Speaker 1: against an easier schedule, So I think this all adds

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Speaker 1: up to a low scoring scrap on a Friday night

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Speaker 1: in the rain. It looks like it looks like cold

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Speaker 1: and rainy in this game. Well colds for me. I'm

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Speaker 1: from you know, Arizona and Texas, so anything below fifty

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Speaker 1: is cold to me. So but cold and rainy it

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Speaker 1: looks like in this game. So I'm going to take

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Speaker 1: the under. Forty six and a half in that one.

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Speaker 1: We're going to hit another under. And I've talked about

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Speaker 1: these ones a couple times Utah Colorado, it just remains

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Speaker 1: one of my favorite unders of this week. Forty five

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Speaker 1: and a half is a total in this game. And

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Speaker 1: you know, for me, it's when I look at what

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Speaker 1: Utah has been doing, and even in losses, because they've

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Speaker 1: lost four straight, five straight, it's been a decent amount.

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Speaker 1: Utah has been playing great defense to stay in those games.

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Speaker 1: You know, even BYU, who they you know, lost to

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Speaker 1: controversially last weekend, but the total in that game was

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Speaker 1: forty three and BYU hadn't played a game total below

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Speaker 1: sixty in their previous four games. Thirty one in the

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Speaker 1: was the total for them against Houston, who plays great defense,

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Speaker 1: thirteen to seven. They lost to TCU, they held TCU

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Speaker 1: to thirteen points, and in all the other Big Twelve

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Speaker 1: games TCU had plays had played this season, sixty eight

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Speaker 1: point eight points was their average score their average total

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Speaker 1: in those games. So Utah, you know, the Achilles heel

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Speaker 1: for them has been on offense. They're just not good

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Speaker 1: on offense. They were kind of seeming to get together

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Speaker 1: on offense under new quarterback Brandon Rose, but he's been

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Speaker 1: ruled out for the rest of the year. This also

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Speaker 1: has a very weird local ten am kickoff time, which

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Speaker 1: may have these teams both coming out a little bit

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Speaker 1: sluggish in this one. So for me, the under forty

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Speaker 1: five and a half in this game, I just don't

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Speaker 1: think Utah is gonna score many points. Colorado's defense has

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Speaker 1: been pretty good and their defense knows they have to

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Speaker 1: play up to keep them in this game. And they

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Speaker 1: still have bull eligibility on the line, so there's not

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Speaker 1: nothing to play for for Utah. This is a team

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Speaker 1: that can let that bad loss turn into two losses.

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Speaker 1: We saw Iowa State do it last week. You know,

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Speaker 1: they lose to Texas Tech and then they end up

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Speaker 1: getting smacked by Kansas. So that could happen in this

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Speaker 1: game for Colorado or for Utah. Excuse me, but don't.

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Speaker 1: I don't really think that is what is going to happen.

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Speaker 1: I think this is going to be another low scoring affair.

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Speaker 1: I think Colorado wins it. I think Colorado probably wins

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Speaker 1: it going away, But this could be twenty four to

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Speaker 1: seven or twenty seven to three, you know, somewhere in

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Speaker 1: that range. I just think this is a low scoring game.

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Speaker 1: Even if they run away with it, thirty five to

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Speaker 1: seven still only gets us to forty two points. So

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Speaker 1: under forty five and a half I believe is very reasonable.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to you know, not everyone's favorite. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: lay thirteen and a half for a road team, but

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Speaker 1: it's Oregon going on the road against Wisconsin, and this

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Speaker 1: is a big line. But Oregon has been covering these

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Speaker 1: big lines ever since that Ohio State victory thirty and

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Speaker 1: a half against Purdue. They covered that twenty one and

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Speaker 1: a half against Illinois, covered fourteen and a half against Michigan.

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Speaker 1: They've covered every spread so far this season that is

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Speaker 1: under seventeen and a half points. Oregon has so Wisconsin.

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Speaker 1: They're a middling Big Ten team. You know, they beat

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Speaker 1: the teams. They're very black and white. This year, they

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Speaker 1: beat the teams they should. They lose to the teams

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Speaker 1: that should beat them, and that's just how it goes

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Speaker 1: for them. They bowed up and played well against Penn State,

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Speaker 1: they still ended up losing that game overall and against

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Speaker 1: the spread. So Penn State, I just you know Oregon here,

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Speaker 1: they are going to be down there. One of their

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Speaker 1: best wide receivers into Johnson, but Jordan James look like

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Speaker 1: he's s trending towards playing and Locke is the Locke

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Speaker 1: is really the key here. He is the fourth worst

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Speaker 1: qualified QB and turnover worthy play percentage this season. And

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Speaker 1: I just think once Oregon gets the lead, that is

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Speaker 1: what is going to happen. We're gonna see lock turn

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Speaker 1: the ball over and it's gonna be a Duck killing here.

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna lay out the Badgers. I don't

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Speaker 1: think this one's gonna be very pretty at the end

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Speaker 1: of the game, even in Madison. So give me the Ducks.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay the thirteen and a half here. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna follow a recent trend. We're gonna take Notre Dame first,

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Speaker 1: Virginia over fifty and a half, and Notre Dame has

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Speaker 1: been putting up almost the majority of this in every

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Speaker 1: game here. They've covered the total in three of their

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Speaker 1: last four games. Virginia is coming off a big win

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Speaker 1: against pitt but they're massive underdogs in this game. Virginia

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Speaker 1: is eighty second scoring defense the grade eighty first or

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Speaker 1: lower in every PFF defensive grade, and they're one hundred

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Speaker 1: and six in defensive EPA. I just think what we

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Speaker 1: see from Notre Dame. Notre Dame gets rolling downhill and

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Speaker 1: they just roll over the next team. They're gonna do

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Speaker 1: the heavy lifting. Virginia has only scored fewer than twenty

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Speaker 1: points twice, and they're a top fifteen scoring offense in

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Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, So you know, if Notre Dame's defense

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Speaker 1: lifts off the gas a little bit and they only

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Speaker 1: have forty two points, I think Virginia could score late

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Speaker 1: as well. They've shown they've proven to not give up

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Speaker 1: this season by scoring in the fourth quarter. This is

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Speaker 1: just an easy trend, and I expect this to move up.

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Speaker 1: It really hasn't, which surprises me. But I just think

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame gets all of or most of, if not all,

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Speaker 1: of this total again, and they're just gonna continue to

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Speaker 1: be putting up points on these teams that are inferior

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Speaker 1: to them. Illinois is a two and a half point

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Speaker 1: home favorite versus Michigan State. We're gonna take that. Illinois

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Speaker 1: not bulletproof, right, and I think cash, tickets, money, everything

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Speaker 1: is split almost right down the middle in this game.

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Speaker 1: But the Spartans have improved, but they still have their

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Speaker 1: eyes on a bull berth. I just don't see them

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Speaker 1: beating this Illinois team, especially this Illinois defense. Quarterback Aden

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Speaker 1: Tiles has been up and down this season, but fourteen

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Speaker 1: turnovers have led him to the highest turnover worthy play

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Speaker 1: rate among qbs with two hundred dropbacks. And that's the one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twelve we talked about with Brydon Locke. So

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Speaker 1: I just think MSU they've been solid on defense. Maybe

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Speaker 1: this is a low scoring affair, but this spread is

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Speaker 1: only two and a half points. It's not like they

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Speaker 1: have to win by seven and a hook, ten and

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Speaker 1: a hook or anything like that. I just think that

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Speaker 1: they are a much better team than Michigan State and

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Speaker 1: Michigan State can go up, they can play well, but

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Speaker 1: they're stronger on offense. I think they're stronger on defense

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Speaker 1: as well. I don't think that this two and a

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Speaker 1: half points is respecting Illinois enough. I know they haven't

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Speaker 1: been as good recently as they were to start the season,

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Speaker 1: and they were probably overrated in that run, but I

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Speaker 1: still think they're much much better than Michigan State. So

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Speaker 1: we'll see how that one plays out. I got two

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Speaker 1: more unders for you here, which is not usually my thing.

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Speaker 1: I usually don't like taking unders, but Houston at Arizona,

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Speaker 1: let's go under forty six and a half. Houston's one

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Speaker 1: and eight to the end of the season. Arizona is

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Speaker 1: four and five so or excuse me, eight one and

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Speaker 1: five and four. So Houston has only played in two

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Speaker 1: games that have hit this total in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Arizona has been allowing big totals recently, but thirty three

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Speaker 1: is the most Houston has scored in big twelve games,

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Speaker 1: Arizona has averaged just sixteen point six points. Arizona's defense

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Speaker 1: has been rough, but Houston is one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 1: second in scoring offense and grade one hundred and seventeenth

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Speaker 1: and overall offense according to PFF, and Arizona's one hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventh in scoring and the grade eightieth in offense.

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Speaker 1: So we have two bad offenses and one of the

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Speaker 1: better defenses in the Big Twelve, if not the best

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Speaker 1: defense in the Big Twelve in Houston. So I think

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Speaker 1: Houston controls this game. Arizona has kind of been pushed

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Speaker 1: around recently. I don't know who wins this game because

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Speaker 1: Houston has not been able to score very well. I

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Speaker 1: just think that this is going to be a low scoring,

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Speaker 1: ugly game in Arizona, and I'm gonna take the under

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Speaker 1: forty six and a half. The last under I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: take here is Clemson apt pit under fifty two and

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Speaker 1: a half. Pitt is struggling on offense. They had eleven

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Speaker 1: going into the fourth quarter against SMU before putting up

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Speaker 1: two touchdowns that get to twenty five. In that game,

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Speaker 1: they were held to under three hundred yards against Virginia,

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Speaker 1: who we just talked about is not a very good

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Speaker 1: defensive team. In that Notre Dame game where we're taking

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Speaker 1: the over, Clemson has hit a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: wall offensively the last two weeks too. Their totals have

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Speaker 1: been twenty one and twenty four. They're four to one

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Speaker 1: and one playing to the under in their last six.

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Speaker 1: Pitt is four and one in their last five. Pitt's

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Speaker 1: quarterback Eli Holstein is questionable to play in this game,

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Speaker 1: and Pitt has just been bad on offense, even in

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Speaker 1: that win against Syracuse three pick sixes we talked about

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Speaker 1: a couple weeks ago, one of the lowest teams in

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Speaker 1: time of possession. Their defense is pretty good too. They

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Speaker 1: grade well across the board. Pitt has been winning games

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Speaker 1: with defense this season, and Clemson is I don't know

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Speaker 1: that they'll struggle to score in this game, but we've

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Speaker 1: also seen them let off the gas. So if Pitt

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Speaker 1: is really having trouble scoring right as they have, or

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Speaker 1: if they have to go to night yarn L because

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Speaker 1: Eli Holstein doesn't play in this game, I just think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna have a hard time putting up points either

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Speaker 1: way because they have recently, and Clemson is kind of

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Speaker 1: hitting a wall and they kind of take their foot

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Speaker 1: off the gas at the end of games. We've seen

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Speaker 1: him do it before. So under fifty two and a

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Speaker 1: half is the total here, and I'm going under, So

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Speaker 1: lots of unders for me four this week. It's not

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Speaker 1: really my thing, so but just to repeat, We're going

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Speaker 1: Ucla at Washington under forty six and a half. We're

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Speaker 1: going to Utah Colorado under forty five and a half.

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Speaker 1: We're going Oregon minus thirteen and a half at Wisconsin

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame vers Virginia over fifty and a half. We're

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Speaker 1: laying the two and a half and taking Illinois against

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Speaker 1: Michigan State. We're under forty six and a half in

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Speaker 1: that Houston Arizona game, and we're under fifty two and

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Speaker 1: a half in Clemson at pit Before we get to

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Speaker 1: the props. Are you looking to up your game in

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Speaker 1: sports betting? Join our exclusive sports betting discord community at

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Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash chat. Not only can you connect

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00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:41,839
Speaker 1: with expert handicappers who provide free picks for NBA, NFL, MLB,

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Speaker 1: college sports player props, live betting, and more, but now

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Speaker 1: you can also participate in our weekly community picks, cast

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Speaker 1: your vote, see how your picks stack up against the experts,

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Speaker 1: and track your success. Do it today. Just go to

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Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash chat. All right, onto the props. Here,

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Speaker 1: I got two touchdown props for you. We're gonna go

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Speaker 1: Ashton j T Boise State first touchdown in the game

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Speaker 1: is plus two h five. So look, this is just

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Speaker 1: me finding a way to get plus money on Ashton

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Speaker 1: Jint scoring a touchdown. My guy Aaron actually pointed this

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Speaker 1: out to me, So appreciate you, Aaron. He has done

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Speaker 1: this in three games this season. He scored a million touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: So it's very very reasonable against San Jose State that

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Speaker 1: if Boise State gets the ball first, Ashton Jint could

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Speaker 1: easily be the first touchdown in this game. The other

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Speaker 1: touchdown that I'm gonna do only two this week. Dylan Gabriel,

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Speaker 1: you're getting plus one thirty five at Wisconsin. I already

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Speaker 1: talked about how I think Wisconsin walks or excuse me,

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Speaker 1: Oregon walks Wisconsin out of the stadium. Here. He has

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Speaker 1: six rushing touchdown touchdowns this season and Wisconsin has giving

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Speaker 1: up four rushing touchdowns this season two qbs, and actually

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Speaker 1: in the last game against Iowa, Sullivan scored touchdowns. So

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Speaker 1: I think this is a very gootable one for Gabriel.

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Speaker 1: We're getting plus money on both these, which makes them

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Speaker 1: a little diceier. Most of the time, but I like

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Speaker 1: both those calls. So plus one thirty five for Gabriel

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Speaker 1: plus two to Zho five for Ashon Jint to be

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Speaker 1: the first touchdown in that game against San Jose State.

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Speaker 1: We have three passing yard props for you. Kevin Jennings

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Speaker 1: for SMU two twenty nine and a half at Boston College.

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Speaker 1: He's hit this in five straight games. BC defends the

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Speaker 1: run decently forty fifth statistically, fourteenth in grade. They're way

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Speaker 1: better against the run than the past one hundred and

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Speaker 1: second statistically forty fifth and coverage but only eightieth and

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Speaker 1: pass rush for BC. I think Kevin Jennings can get

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Speaker 1: this total fairly easy. Now. Right before I record the show,

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Speaker 1: they took it off, so it might bump up to

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Speaker 1: like two thirty three two forty. I would be okay

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Speaker 1: under two fifty, honestly for Kevin Jennings against Boston College.

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Speaker 1: Drew Aller two hundred and thirty two and a half

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Speaker 1: at Purdue. Perdue has played miserably on defense this season.

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Speaker 1: They are one hundred and eighth in pass defense. They

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Speaker 1: are one hundred and twenty ninth in coverage grade, one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twelfth in pass rush, so not putting a

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Speaker 1: lot of pressure on the quarterback. They're not covering well.

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Speaker 1: Dreue Awler, I think can easily pass this against a

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Speaker 1: perdude team, and this would just be good going into

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Speaker 1: the postseason to potentially get your confidence up. Let's go

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Speaker 1: with Jake rutz laugh two thirty two and a half

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Speaker 1: for BYU versus Kansas. Just look at the recent history

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Speaker 1: of qbs against Kansas. Right, Kansas has been playing great football.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to take anything away from them. I

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Speaker 1: think BYU might be on shaky ground in this game,

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Speaker 1: but Rock go back three hundred and eighty three yards,

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Speaker 1: Avery Johnson two fifty three. Houston had three quarterbacks they

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Speaker 1: combined for two hundred thirty seven yards. We talked about

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Speaker 1: how miserable they are on offense. ASU is the only

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Speaker 1: Big twelve team that hasn't hit this against them because

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Speaker 1: Hoover had three fifty six and Green had two ninety five.

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Speaker 1: So most qbs are hitting this against Kansas. They've been

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Speaker 1: playing great on offense recently. The defense is still bad.

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Speaker 1: And if the offense is gonna play great against BYU,

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Speaker 1: maybe they have to go point for points. So I

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Speaker 1: definitely think Jake Retz laugh can hit this toll going

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Speaker 1: over two rushing yards here. We got two quarterbacks and

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Speaker 1: one running back. But we're gonna go Jaylen Daniels in

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Speaker 1: that same game thirty five and a half yards versus BYU.

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Speaker 1: He's hit this in five games in three straight. We

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Speaker 1: saw Brandon Rose run for fifty five against BYU. Last week,

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Speaker 1: Rizzik and Brown hit a total of forty a wrangle,

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Speaker 1: Bowman and Presley all played for Oklahoma State and it

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Speaker 1: was seventy seven nineteen and eleven. So a ton of

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Speaker 1: rushing yards from the quarterbacks against BYU this season. Yes,

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Speaker 1: the sack yards count, which make it dicey, but Jalen

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Speaker 1: Daniels is a runner. I think he's going to have

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Speaker 1: a ton of rushing yards here. The other quarterback, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna take Washington States quarterback John Mattier fifty three and

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Speaker 1: a half at New Mexico. And honestly, it was just

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Speaker 1: pick your poison in this game. Where do I want

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Speaker 1: to put my bet on Matier? Do I want to

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Speaker 1: put it in the passing prop for touchdown? I thought

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Speaker 1: this rushing prop of fifty three and a half is

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Speaker 1: very very reasonable. New Mexico one hundred and twenty ninth

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Speaker 1: against the run. He's hit this in five games this

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Speaker 1: season already. He's a runner, and I think he is

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Speaker 1: going to gash New Mexico. I think it's going to

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Speaker 1: be way more than this. Fifty three and a half

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Speaker 1: and the running back we're going to take Jeremiah Love

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Speaker 1: for sixty one and a half versus Uva Al. He

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Speaker 1: talked about how I like Notre Dame in that game.

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Speaker 1: I think they're up. I think they're running late and

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Speaker 1: looking at running backs with ten plus carries versus Virginia

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Speaker 1: Desmond Reid last week sixteen for eighty Omario and Hampton

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Speaker 1: twenty six for one oh five, Isaac Brown twenty for

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Speaker 1: one forty six. The Maryland running backs are the only

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Speaker 1: two with ten carries that didn't pass this that are

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Speaker 1: FBS competitors against Notre Dame this year. In Clayborne had

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Speaker 1: twenty one for eighty six. I mean, most running backs,

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Speaker 1: if you give them ten carries, which I think Jeremiah

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Speaker 1: Love could get to in this game fairly easily, are

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Speaker 1: getting this total. So I think that is a safe bet.

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Speaker 1: For the receiving yards, We're gonna go with Syracuse tight

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Speaker 1: end Ronde Gatston versus cal He it is forty eight

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Speaker 1: and a half. He's passed his five times this season,

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Speaker 1: calls seventy ninth and pass defense statistically, and I just

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Speaker 1: think they're going to be playing from behind as they

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Speaker 1: usually are because the defense is fairly miserable. Forty eight

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Speaker 1: and a half I think is very, very doable. Jacquoi Brooks,

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Speaker 1: the Louisville wide receiver eighty five and a half at

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Speaker 1: Stanford Stanford one hundred and twenty seventh. In past defense,

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Speaker 1: they great one hundred and seventeenth, They're miserable on the

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Speaker 1: back end. Brooks has passed this in five games and

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Speaker 1: wake Forest is the only powerful power for school against

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Speaker 1: Stanford that didn't have at least one target with eighty

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Speaker 1: five yards receiving. So I think Brooks can easily get

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Speaker 1: to this total. And the last one I got from

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Speaker 1: my guys, ck Diamir Miller from Rutgers fifty nine and

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Speaker 1: a half at Marshall. He suggested this one and I

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Speaker 1: looked a little deeper into it. Marylynd one hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty fourth against the pass a Greade one hundred and ninth.

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Speaker 1: He's Rutgers leading wide receiver. He's hit this in four

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Speaker 1: games and two of the last three, and he has

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Speaker 1: thirty three targets in the last two games. So Dimian

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Speaker 1: Miller for Rutgers against Marshall. So those are my picks

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Speaker 1: and props for the week. Remember you can tail me

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Speaker 1: over at Bettingpros dot com slash Bagman, or just open

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Speaker 1: up the Betting Pros app and punching my name and

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Speaker 1: you can find me and follow me for my picks.

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Speaker 1: Good luck everybody. It should be a fun week again

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Speaker 1: and I will see you next week. For Week thirteen,

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Speaker 1: we're rolling towards the end very very quickly here, but

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Speaker 1: good luck everybody, and I will see you next week.

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Speaker 1: Take it easy.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

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