WEBVTT - China Seeks to Broaden iPhone Ban

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, Jessman and Paul Sweene here in the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Interactive Broker studio and so much focus today. Paul has

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<v Speaker 2>been on this story about how China is seeking to

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<v Speaker 2>broaden this iPhone band to state firms and looking at

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<v Speaker 2>what China's really trying to do here.

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<v Speaker 3>And this also does.

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<v Speaker 2>Come ahead of next week. We do have that September

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<v Speaker 2>twelfth iPhone fifteen Apple Watch event that is quickly approaching.

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<v Speaker 2>So investors really want to get a sense here as

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<v Speaker 2>far as what this really means for Apple as well

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<v Speaker 2>as companies when they are doing business in a country

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<v Speaker 2>like China. So who better to bring back with us

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<v Speaker 2>than Mark German, chief Technology correspondent at Bloomberg News, joining

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<v Speaker 2>us on zoom from our Los Angeles. Mark I will

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<v Speaker 2>look us through the latest developments here and just kind

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<v Speaker 2>of broadly what this really is going to mean for

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<v Speaker 2>Apple as well as other companies.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, thank you both so much for having me. As always,

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<v Speaker 4>this ban has become broader than just a ban of

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<v Speaker 4>iPhones at work of government agencies. This is also related

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<v Speaker 4>to state owned companies. Right in China, there are plenty

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<v Speaker 4>of conglomerates that are operated or owned by the Chinese government,

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<v Speaker 4>So certainly this is pretty broad. Now, I've seen some

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<v Speaker 4>analyst reports indicating that this is very limited. Right, If

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<v Speaker 4>Apple loses five hundred thousand or a million iPhone unit

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<v Speaker 4>sales because of a ban at Chinese entities, it's not

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<v Speaker 4>necessarily a big deal, But that misses the bigger picture.

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<v Speaker 4>The bigger picture is Chinese nationalism. I don't think there's

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<v Speaker 4>going to be an outright ban of iPhone sales in

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<v Speaker 4>China for consumers or anything close to that. But you

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<v Speaker 4>definitely have to consider the idea of consumers in China

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<v Speaker 4>pushing back on the idea of buying iPhones because they

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<v Speaker 4>see that their government is pushing back on iPhones in

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<v Speaker 4>their own entities.

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<v Speaker 5>Mark, what do we know about the quality of the

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<v Speaker 5>Chinese phones in China? I mean it's me Chinese consumers

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<v Speaker 5>are like any other consumers. I mean, they will go

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<v Speaker 5>where they deem value and so I'm trying to get

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<v Speaker 5>a sense of how good are those Chinese phones.

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<v Speaker 4>The Chinese phones are getting better. Whalwei is rolling out

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<v Speaker 4>a new phone. It's called the sixty Pro. It is

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<v Speaker 4>quite impressive. It has a larger battery, a larger display,

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<v Speaker 4>and far higher resolution cameras than the new iPhone fifteen

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<v Speaker 4>Pro Max that's going to be announced next week, so

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<v Speaker 4>certainly that's something to keep an eye out. It also

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<v Speaker 4>has a price that undercuts the latest iPhone, so certainly

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<v Speaker 4>that is something to keep an eye on. It also,

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<v Speaker 4>as we've shown in our exclusive tear down in the

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<v Speaker 4>last week or so for my colleagues in Asia, that

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<v Speaker 4>it has a fairly advanced seven animeter chip using homegrown

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<v Speaker 4>Chinese technology. And that's interesting to watch because right now,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, the US has been banning exports of US

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<v Speaker 4>components to component makers in China. So certainly China is

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<v Speaker 4>showing that despite those bands and those export and import restrictions,

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<v Speaker 4>that they're able to release some key components that really

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<v Speaker 4>power these new devices.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you think could potentially be some surprises next

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<v Speaker 2>week that investors might be hoping to look for at

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<v Speaker 2>the event.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm not anticipating any surprises next week, it'll be pretty straightforward.

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<v Speaker 4>You'll see four new iPhone fifteen models, too low and

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<v Speaker 4>too high end, both in the same six point one

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<v Speaker 4>inch and six point seven in screen sizes. You'll see

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<v Speaker 4>a new titanium design for the iPhone fifteen Promee Promax.

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<v Speaker 4>That's the first redesign in three years. You'll see on

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<v Speaker 4>those higher end phones, a better battery life, a lighter

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<v Speaker 4>frame in the A seventeen chip built on the new

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<v Speaker 4>three and animeter production process, so a little leg up

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<v Speaker 4>on what China's got in their new Wawei devices. The

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<v Speaker 4>Apple Watch upgrades will be very minor. Faster processors, new components,

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<v Speaker 4>new colors, a black version of the Apple Watch Ultra,

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<v Speaker 4>and then on the air pods you'll see a move

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<v Speaker 4>to USBC that new charging standard from Lightning, which is

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<v Speaker 4>also going to be present on all four new iPhone models.

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<v Speaker 3>Ay Mark.

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<v Speaker 2>Apple also is working on a revamped iPad pro for

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<v Speaker 2>next year, and actually would be the first major overhaul

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<v Speaker 2>in about half a decade.

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<v Speaker 3>What do we know so far about that?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, the IPD pro that's going to be announced around

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<v Speaker 4>the middle of next year. They're going to be moving

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<v Speaker 4>to oh LED displays on those for the first time.

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<v Speaker 4>OLED is the screen technology that Apple uses across many

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<v Speaker 4>of its iPhones at this point. They started rolling it

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<v Speaker 4>out with the iPhone ten back in twenty seventeen. Quite

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<v Speaker 4>a bit better contrast, better color reproduction. It just looks

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<v Speaker 4>better overall. And so that display technology will be at

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<v Speaker 4>the heart of that iPad pro revamp, along with the

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<v Speaker 4>new Magic keyboard with trackpad that has a metal design.

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<v Speaker 4>It'll make the iPad look more like a MacBook.

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<v Speaker 5>So talk to us about I wonder what Tim Cook

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<v Speaker 5>is saying these days, Mark about China. I know he

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<v Speaker 5>was over in China, you know, a month or so ago,

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<v Speaker 5>and how important China is, not just from their supply

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<v Speaker 5>chain and also as an end market. What are the

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<v Speaker 5>folks of Koopertinos saying about kind of the I don't

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<v Speaker 5>know the intermediate term relationship.

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<v Speaker 6>With end or risk which China.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, they're not saying much and there's really nothing

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<v Speaker 4>they can do. You know, all of their new iPhone

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<v Speaker 4>fifteen pros are going to be built in China and

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<v Speaker 4>they have to sell one hundreds of millions of those

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<v Speaker 4>devices over the next couple of years. Twenty percent of

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<v Speaker 4>their sales come from China, right, So there's really nothing

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<v Speaker 4>that could be said from their standpoint. I'm sure they

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<v Speaker 4>are worried internally, but from an outside perspective, they'll definitely

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<v Speaker 4>show excitement about their future in the region.

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<v Speaker 2>Something else I'm curious about, as would we do see

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<v Speaker 2>US China trade tensions rising up again, How does that

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<v Speaker 2>affect new production sites that are sort of changing the

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<v Speaker 2>way that Apple's devices are made.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I don't think at this point there's any going back.

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<v Speaker 4>I think Apple is expanding its supply chain outside of

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<v Speaker 4>China to places like Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, and India foremost,

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<v Speaker 4>so I certainly think that that's already a given. It's

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<v Speaker 4>already a done deal. So I'm not really sure there's

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<v Speaker 4>anything more that could be done on the tariff site

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<v Speaker 4>to accelerate Apples push outside of China. That's already full

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<v Speaker 4>blown and going full step ahead.

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<v Speaker 5>Hey, Mark, when don't we have phone particularly with the phones.

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<v Speaker 5>Is there any opportunity going forward or expectation that there

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<v Speaker 5>will be any kind of leap frog type new versions

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<v Speaker 5>coming on or is it just incremental here, incremental there,

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<v Speaker 5>and then people are just going to get into some

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<v Speaker 5>type of renewal cycle every three, four or five years.

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<v Speaker 5>Is that kind of how they think about it.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm not sure how they think about it, but I

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<v Speaker 4>can tell you the way I think about it is

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<v Speaker 4>that it's going to be very incremental over the next

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<v Speaker 4>you know, three to four years or so, it's going

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<v Speaker 4>to continue to be. The new devices this year are incremental.

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<v Speaker 4>And while I say they're incremental, they're still going to

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<v Speaker 4>be the most significant overhaul so the devices we've seen

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<v Speaker 4>in three four years. So certainly you know you'll get

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<v Speaker 4>your opinion from You can ask one hundred people their

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<v Speaker 4>opinion and you might get a hundred different opinions.

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<v Speaker 6>Well, I'm going with yours. I also talk to anairog ronnie.

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<v Speaker 5>He knows a lot about the phone and he tells

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<v Speaker 5>me when I need to upgrade.

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<v Speaker 2>When it comes to different countries like India, I know

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<v Speaker 2>that has definitely a hot place that companies have been

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<v Speaker 2>going into.

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<v Speaker 3>What's kind of the story there when it comes to Apple.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, the strategy for Apple in India is to replicate

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<v Speaker 4>the success that they've had in China over the past

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<v Speaker 4>fifteen years. That is the creation of the country as

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<v Speaker 4>both a production hub but also a key sales hub.

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<v Speaker 4>Apple sees China as a market that it only has

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<v Speaker 4>one to three percent penetration in, so there's a long

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<v Speaker 4>way to go. Very few people comparatively have iPhones in India,

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<v Speaker 4>and so Apple sees it as a completely untapped market,

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<v Speaker 4>just like they saw China fifteen years ago. And the

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<v Speaker 4>success that Apple has had in China over the last

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<v Speaker 4>decade plus has been unprecedented, and they want to replicate

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<v Speaker 4>that in India and they've started to lay the groundwork

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<v Speaker 4>for that with two retale stores. They're working on three more.

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<v Speaker 4>I've written definitely think they're going to start doing more

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<v Speaker 4>for India on the product side as well.

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<v Speaker 5>But I've also heard, as it relates to India maybe

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<v Speaker 5>just emerging markets in general, that some people argue they

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<v Speaker 5>just need a lower price phone. They can't go into

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<v Speaker 5>some of these merging markets with their current lineup. It's

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<v Speaker 5>just too expensive. What do you think about that?

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<v Speaker 4>I don't necessarily think that Apple is going to do

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<v Speaker 4>the lower cost phone in China's in those emerging markets,

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<v Speaker 4>it's very hard for them to put the skews on

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<v Speaker 4>a geography basis, So I think they're going to just

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<v Speaker 4>push their lower price devices harder in those regions, like

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<v Speaker 4>the iPhone se and some of the older models of

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<v Speaker 4>the iPhone, like the iPhone twelve and thirteen, the base ones.

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<v Speaker 4>I also think that they can lower prices once they

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<v Speaker 4>get some tax relief based on production locally. Obviously, India

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<v Speaker 4>lowers import taxes and such if you produce locally, which

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<v Speaker 4>is one of the driving forces behind Apples work there.

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<v Speaker 4>So I certainly think they're going to push pricing plans

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<v Speaker 4>and installment packages rather than cut prices in India.

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<v Speaker 2>Also, Vietnam has emerged as a popular.

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<v Speaker 3>New hub for Apple. What do we need to know

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<v Speaker 3>about that?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, India or Vietnam. In addition to India, Malaysia and Thailand,

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<v Speaker 4>that's one of the other countries where Apple's pushing. They

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<v Speaker 4>opened up an online store there last year, which is

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<v Speaker 4>one of the early indicators of when Apples trying to

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<v Speaker 4>plant the flag in a particular new market. They have

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<v Speaker 4>some retail presence, they're on the third parties, I'd imagine

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<v Speaker 4>they would expand with more first party retail stores there eventually.

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<v Speaker 4>I also anticipate Malaysia to be similar in that they're

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<v Speaker 4>going to grow a retail footprint there too, and you're

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<v Speaker 4>seeing some macro production in Vietnam, but primarily Apple watching AirPods.

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<v Speaker 5>Hey, Mark, thanks so much for giving us your time.

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<v Speaker 5>Appreciate getting the update of Apple certainly in the news today.

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<v Speaker 5>Plus they're going to have their new product launches coming up,

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<v Speaker 5>so we'll be in touch with you. Mark Herman, he's

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<v Speaker 5>the chief technology correspondent for Bloomberg News. He's just the

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<v Speaker 5>ace on it. He really is.

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<v Speaker 6>He knew the news there.

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<v Speaker 5>He joining us on Zoom from the Los Angeles bureau

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<v Speaker 5>speaking in nice office that lost LA is awesome.

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<v Speaker 6>Oh yeah.

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<v Speaker 5>Like when I first went to LA, I was like

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<v Speaker 5>boy for Bloomberg, which every office is overwhelmingly nice.

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<v Speaker 6>I was like, eh, this is I was.

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<v Speaker 5>Coming in And as soon as and I went back,

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<v Speaker 5>like a year later, they changed offices. Spectacular, top of everything,

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<v Speaker 5>and you know that's all I did was sayah, and

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<v Speaker 5>they make the up grade.

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<v Speaker 3>I have to know what it's like compete to this office.

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<v Speaker 6>Awesome. They just and they've got a great view.

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<v Speaker 5>They're right in Century City.

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<v Speaker 6>Great office space there, so great job. That's where mister

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<v Speaker 6>German is. So are you gonna upgrade your phone?

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<v Speaker 2>You know what the battery is not quite good, So

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<v Speaker 2>I feel like I might have to And.

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<v Speaker 5>A lot of folks say, you know, maybe that's what

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<v Speaker 5>Apple does. They kind of give you a battery life

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<v Speaker 5>and then when the battery starts coming out right.

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<v Speaker 6>In time for an upgrade, and there you go. So

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<v Speaker 6>we'll see how that plays.

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<v Speaker 5>Like S and P five hundred off three tents and

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<v Speaker 5>one percent, the Dow up just fractionally, nastak off nine

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<v Speaker 5>tenths of one percent, yields they are kind of pulling

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<v Speaker 5>in a little bit tenure Treasury three zero point two

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<v Speaker 5>six percent, So we keep an eye on that.

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<v Speaker 6>We're gonna work coming up this.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App,

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<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 6>Let's talk companies now look software company.

0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:03.920
<v Speaker 5>Brian Robbins. He's a chief financial officer for get Lab.

0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:08.200
<v Speaker 5>He joined us on Zoom from Sunset South, Carolina. Are

0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:08.960
<v Speaker 5>you kidding me?

0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:10.960
<v Speaker 6>Sunset? I mean, how good is that?

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<v Speaker 5>I've been to Sunset South?

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<v Speaker 6>Now it is nice.

0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:15.640
<v Speaker 5>I need to get in the low country to scam.

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<v Speaker 5>I have to figure out what's behind this. Hey, Brian,

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<v Speaker 5>thanks so much for joining us here. Talk to us

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<v Speaker 5>about get lab. Just give us kind of the thirty

0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:25.920
<v Speaker 5>second elevator pitch what you guys do, kind of you

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<v Speaker 5>where you fit into the tech space.

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<v Speaker 7>Absolutely thanks for having me on the show today. The

0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:35.680
<v Speaker 7>best way to describe get lab for a non technical

0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:39.559
<v Speaker 7>person is comparing it to the iPhone. And so about

0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:41.920
<v Speaker 7>ten years ago, I used to travel about every week

0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:44.760
<v Speaker 7>and I would pack a duffel bag of electronics. I

0:11:44.760 --> 0:11:47.040
<v Speaker 7>would take my walk hands, I could go jogging in

0:11:47.120 --> 0:11:49.120
<v Speaker 7>the park. I would take a camera so I could

0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:51.840
<v Speaker 7>take pictures of all the cool sites. I'd have my

0:11:51.920 --> 0:11:55.880
<v Speaker 7>Garmin GPS because you know, the ride share and companies

0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:59.400
<v Speaker 7>weren't around to basically get somewhere if Matt Quest wasn't right,

0:12:00.120 --> 0:12:02.240
<v Speaker 7>have my BlackBerry and have all the charges, and I

0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:04.840
<v Speaker 7>have to take a duffel bag of basically all the

0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:07.480
<v Speaker 7>electronics to go on a business trip. And then comes

0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:11.120
<v Speaker 7>to iPhone and all the applications got integrated into a

0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:15.199
<v Speaker 7>single platform and the user experience just went off the charts.

0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:18.600
<v Speaker 7>And so get lab is an iPhone for software developers.

0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:23.760
<v Speaker 7>We allow software developers, operations, and security professionals to create

0:12:23.880 --> 0:12:28.160
<v Speaker 7>software faster, better, cheaper, and more secure. It doesn't matter

0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:31.360
<v Speaker 7>what industry you're in or what geography, everybody uses the

0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:32.480
<v Speaker 7>same platform.

0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:37.840
<v Speaker 2>You just had earnings released in recent days and the

0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:41.839
<v Speaker 2>stock if you look at this Paul Tickersingle GTLB up

0:12:41.920 --> 0:12:44.440
<v Speaker 2>almost ten percent this month after the company did report

0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:48.480
<v Speaker 2>second quarter results that did beat expectations and raise their.

0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:49.920
<v Speaker 3>Full year forecast.

0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:52.720
<v Speaker 2>What are you seeing when it comes to customer buying

0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:55.200
<v Speaker 2>patterns and what do you think that really tells us

0:12:55.280 --> 0:12:58.120
<v Speaker 2>about the economy.

0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:01.240
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, you know, great question. Every company has to become

0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:06.199
<v Speaker 7>a software company. Consumers are demanding data. We're understanding where

0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:09.040
<v Speaker 7>their package is at. You know, like Amazon, they'll send

0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:11.680
<v Speaker 7>you a text now if the drivers you know, eight

0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:14.599
<v Speaker 7>stops away, and where your package is at. So everybody's

0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:17.320
<v Speaker 7>creating software, they're putting them in the cloud. They're doing

0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:20.400
<v Speaker 7>it for revenue generation and also to save money. And

0:13:20.480 --> 0:13:24.760
<v Speaker 7>so get lab basically eliminates point solutions and allows people

0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:28.160
<v Speaker 7>to do everything on one platform with a single application.

0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:31.400
<v Speaker 7>And so even with the tougher economy, we're seeing a

0:13:31.400 --> 0:13:34.200
<v Speaker 7>lot of companies come to get lad to save money.

0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:37.200
<v Speaker 7>If you use our ultimate product, which is our high

0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:40.360
<v Speaker 7>end product, it's ninety nine dollars per month per user,

0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:43.200
<v Speaker 7>and it has a six month payback and over three

0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:45.960
<v Speaker 7>years it's over a four hundred percent return on your investment.

0:13:46.880 --> 0:13:49.520
<v Speaker 6>That sense pretty compelling for a lot of buyers. I

0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:49.880
<v Speaker 6>would think.

0:13:49.920 --> 0:13:53.040
<v Speaker 5>Talk to us about Google Cloud, how you guys partner

0:13:53.080 --> 0:13:53.800
<v Speaker 5>with them?

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, absolutely, we have a partnership with Google Cloud. We're

0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:03.520
<v Speaker 7>currently using their large language models to train some of

0:14:03.559 --> 0:14:06.480
<v Speaker 7>our AI products that we're working on. You know, get

0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:11.280
<v Speaker 7>Lab's core feature is to make the developers, operations and

0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:15.720
<v Speaker 7>security professionals faster and better at creating software. And one

0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:17.840
<v Speaker 7>of the ways that we're doing that is at an

0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:20.800
<v Speaker 7>AI to our product. And so we currently have ten

0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:24.440
<v Speaker 7>products under development. We have one that's generally available today

0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:28.160
<v Speaker 7>called Suggested Reviewers, and we're working on one called code Suggestions.

0:14:28.200 --> 0:14:32.280
<v Speaker 7>Well that will actually help populate code based on what

0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:36.480
<v Speaker 7>you ask, you know, ask the software to do, and

0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:40.000
<v Speaker 7>so we're using Google's large language models to actually train

0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:43.160
<v Speaker 7>the software to do that. We have a different approach

0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:46.160
<v Speaker 7>than other people where we're doing it with a privacy first,

0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:48.600
<v Speaker 7>and so we want to protect the IP of customers

0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:51.760
<v Speaker 7>that use it, and we don't want to allow that

0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:55.640
<v Speaker 7>IP to be training other companies software.

0:14:56.080 --> 0:14:58.720
<v Speaker 2>Whenever I hear AI, obviously we know, Paul how much

0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:00.840
<v Speaker 2>it is all the rage this year from so many

0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:03.360
<v Speaker 2>different industries, but I'm curious as far as when it

0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:06.560
<v Speaker 2>comes to developer demand what that really means right now,

0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:08.720
<v Speaker 2>when it comes to some of those AI tools.

0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:12.680
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, you know, AI is important. It's another tool to

0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:16.600
<v Speaker 7>allow developers become more efficient. But you know, this is

0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:19.160
<v Speaker 7>a first time in my career where the media has

0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:23.360
<v Speaker 7>actually talked about something way before the technology really being

0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:27.320
<v Speaker 7>generally available. And so in the software development process, we

0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:31.720
<v Speaker 7>just released a devop support that basically talks about in

0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:35.760
<v Speaker 7>the process of making software, only about twenty five percent

0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:38.360
<v Speaker 7>of it is actually done on coding, and so some

0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:42.680
<v Speaker 7>of the AI tools will make coding more more efficient

0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:45.560
<v Speaker 7>and more quicker, but you know, some of the other

0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:49.280
<v Speaker 7>tools out in the market, this quickness and suggestion of

0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:52.800
<v Speaker 7>code has actually created more vulnerabilities. And so our product's

0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:55.960
<v Speaker 7>not currently generally available. It's in private beta. We hope

0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:58.760
<v Speaker 7>to have it generally available later this year, and we're

0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:01.600
<v Speaker 7>working on making sure that the code quality that's being

0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:06.200
<v Speaker 7>recommended is of high quality and has very limited vulnerabilities.

0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:09.200
<v Speaker 5>Hey, Brian, just about thirty seconds. How do you guys

0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:12.160
<v Speaker 5>view cybersecurity? How is that engendered into your software?

0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:16.720
<v Speaker 7>Yeah? Absolutely. Security is top of mind for every company,

0:16:16.840 --> 0:16:20.600
<v Speaker 7>right and the security market continues to grow because you

0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:24.120
<v Speaker 7>have the builders, the buyers, and the hackers, and the

0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:27.520
<v Speaker 7>hackers are always getting better at trying to create different

0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:30.920
<v Speaker 7>mouse traps to breach into the companies. And so one

0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:33.320
<v Speaker 7>of the advantages of our platform is you actually have

0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:37.040
<v Speaker 7>security integrated into the software development process. So the old

0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:40.480
<v Speaker 7>way of actually creating software is the developers would actually

0:16:40.520 --> 0:16:42.920
<v Speaker 7>code and develop the software. They then throw it over

0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:45.640
<v Speaker 7>the wall to the ops and the security teams and

0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:47.720
<v Speaker 7>they would come back and say, hey, you have the

0:16:48.360 --> 0:16:52.640
<v Speaker 7>security vulnerabilities, please go rewrite these lines of codes. Our

0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:55.760
<v Speaker 7>security function is actually built into the software, so as

0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:58.400
<v Speaker 7>you're right in the code, the security is actually telling

0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:00.760
<v Speaker 7>you you have a vulnerability, you need to fix us,

0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:03.000
<v Speaker 7>and we'll fix it in all your code where that

0:17:03.080 --> 0:17:03.960
<v Speaker 7>vulnerability is at.

0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:07.080
<v Speaker 5>Fascinating stuff, coders, That's what we should have done back

0:17:07.119 --> 0:17:07.800
<v Speaker 5>in the day coding.

0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:10.240
<v Speaker 6>Brian Roberts, chief financial officer at get Lab.

0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:15.399
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Catch us

0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:19.560
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio,

0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:22.920
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0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:26.120
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0:17:26.600 --> 0:17:29.359
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0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:33.360
<v Speaker 5>All right, let's switch to a big, big topic that's

0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:35.480
<v Speaker 5>going to be even more news as we head towards

0:17:35.480 --> 0:17:36.639
<v Speaker 5>the twenty twenty four elections.

0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:37.119
<v Speaker 6>It's always a.

0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:41.480
<v Speaker 5>Big political issue, and that is gun violence. Cassandra Crafossi

0:17:41.560 --> 0:17:44.280
<v Speaker 5>joins us. He's a deputy director of the Center for

0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:48.639
<v Speaker 5>Gun Violence Solutions, located at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School

0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:53.520
<v Speaker 5>of Public Health. She joins us on zoom from Charms City, Baltimore, Maryland.

0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:57.160
<v Speaker 5>The Bloomberg School of Public Health is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg,

0:17:57.160 --> 0:18:01.840
<v Speaker 5>founder of Bloomberg LP, and Bloomberg philanthropiece Cassandra. I guess

0:18:01.880 --> 0:18:05.600
<v Speaker 5>the way I think about the gun violence issue in

0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:08.240
<v Speaker 5>the United States is a tweet that I just took

0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:11.440
<v Speaker 5>a screenshot of and I keep and it reads something

0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:15.159
<v Speaker 5>like this. In retrospect Sandy Hook marked the end of

0:18:15.200 --> 0:18:18.280
<v Speaker 5>the gun control debate in the US once America decided

0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:19.520
<v Speaker 5>killing children was bearable.

0:18:19.840 --> 0:18:20.840
<v Speaker 6>It was over.

0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:23.639
<v Speaker 5>That's kind of how I feel about it. That's sad.

0:18:24.119 --> 0:18:26.080
<v Speaker 5>Hopefully there are a lot of people who are still

0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:28.760
<v Speaker 5>passionate about trying to change things out there. Can you

0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:32.520
<v Speaker 5>tell us where are we with the gun violence situation

0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:34.720
<v Speaker 5>in this country right now?

0:18:34.760 --> 0:18:36.680
<v Speaker 6>It just seems as bad as it's ever been.

0:18:38.280 --> 0:18:43.760
<v Speaker 8>Unfortunately, we have seen increases in gun violence, particularly since

0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:45.320
<v Speaker 8>the start of the pandemic.

0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:47.760
<v Speaker 9>There is some promise though.

0:18:47.920 --> 0:18:52.560
<v Speaker 8>Our data for twenty twenty two indicates that overall gun

0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:56.480
<v Speaker 8>death rates have declined slightly since twenty twenty one, but

0:18:56.560 --> 0:19:00.520
<v Speaker 8>we're still substantially higher than we were in twenty nineteen.

0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:04.600
<v Speaker 8>In twenty twenty two, we saw over forty eight thousand

0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:09.399
<v Speaker 8>people die from gun related deaths. That includes homicide and suicide,

0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:11.639
<v Speaker 8>which is the leading cause of gun death in the US.

0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:16.159
<v Speaker 5>Cassandra, is there any reason to have any confidence in

0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:19.080
<v Speaker 5>common sense gun legislation being passed?

0:19:20.680 --> 0:19:24.600
<v Speaker 9>Certainly, we have to be optimistic. At our center. There's

0:19:24.720 --> 0:19:26.000
<v Speaker 9>a large group of us.

0:19:25.840 --> 0:19:29.280
<v Speaker 8>Doing this really important work, which would be even harder

0:19:29.520 --> 0:19:32.520
<v Speaker 8>if we weren't optimistic that we could see change.

0:19:33.080 --> 0:19:34.560
<v Speaker 9>We have an amazing team.

0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:39.080
<v Speaker 8>Of researchers and policy advocates who work at the state

0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:43.040
<v Speaker 8>and federal level. In June of last year, following the

0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:47.280
<v Speaker 8>Buffalo and Uvaldi shootings, we did see the bipartisan Safer

0:19:47.359 --> 0:19:51.720
<v Speaker 8>Communities Act pass at the federal level provided funding for

0:19:51.800 --> 0:19:55.760
<v Speaker 8>some important policies like extreme risk protection orders, but we

0:19:55.800 --> 0:19:58.480
<v Speaker 8>also see a lot of progress at the state level.

0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:03.200
<v Speaker 8>Just this year, we saw Michigan and Minnesota both pass

0:20:03.320 --> 0:20:07.480
<v Speaker 8>extreme Risk Protection Order laws. These temporarily separate someone from

0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:10.719
<v Speaker 8>their firearms during a time of crisis, So there is

0:20:10.880 --> 0:20:15.800
<v Speaker 8>opportunity we have evidence based solutions that experience broad public support.

0:20:16.119 --> 0:20:19.000
<v Speaker 8>We just really need to be pushing for these policies

0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:20.480
<v Speaker 8>at the state and federal level.

0:20:20.920 --> 0:20:24.800
<v Speaker 2>In Cassandra Japaul's point, Sandy Hook, that tragedy happened over

0:20:24.840 --> 0:20:28.680
<v Speaker 2>a decade ago. What has prevented more major policy from

0:20:28.720 --> 0:20:30.440
<v Speaker 2>actually happening in Washington.

0:20:32.160 --> 0:20:36.200
<v Speaker 8>The challenge at the federal level is, I think there's

0:20:36.240 --> 0:20:40.200
<v Speaker 8>a bit of complacency, that people feel like gun owners

0:20:40.280 --> 0:20:43.880
<v Speaker 8>are single issue voters on guns, and that people who

0:20:44.000 --> 0:20:48.040
<v Speaker 8>don't vote to advance these policies are going to continue

0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:51.040
<v Speaker 8>to get re elected. But at the state level, we

0:20:51.119 --> 0:20:55.480
<v Speaker 8>have seen that's actually not the case. Recently in Virginia

0:20:55.680 --> 0:20:58.840
<v Speaker 8>there was a high profile shooting. They called a special

0:20:58.880 --> 0:21:03.080
<v Speaker 8>session and nothing happen, and their legislature turned. They have

0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:06.000
<v Speaker 8>many more Democrats and are putting some of these policies

0:21:06.040 --> 0:21:09.199
<v Speaker 8>in place. We're watching closely to see what will happen

0:21:09.720 --> 0:21:14.320
<v Speaker 8>in Tennessee following this very recent failed special session. I

0:21:14.359 --> 0:21:18.200
<v Speaker 8>think the biggest challenge has been we see broad support

0:21:18.320 --> 0:21:23.040
<v Speaker 8>for policies, but people haven't always been activated to make change,

0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:28.240
<v Speaker 8>contacting their legislators, showing up to testify, and hopefully as

0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:31.560
<v Speaker 8>people learn more about many of the evidence based solutions

0:21:31.560 --> 0:21:35.920
<v Speaker 8>that are available, people will be contacting their elected officials

0:21:35.960 --> 0:21:37.080
<v Speaker 8>and we will see change.

0:21:37.480 --> 0:21:39.720
<v Speaker 5>What are some of the changes that you would like

0:21:40.440 --> 0:21:43.840
<v Speaker 5>to see be implemented, whether it's at the federal or

0:21:43.840 --> 0:21:47.159
<v Speaker 5>state level, that you think are reasonable to work towards

0:21:47.160 --> 0:21:47.800
<v Speaker 5>In terms.

0:21:47.600 --> 0:21:51.320
<v Speaker 6>Of LIKELI had to get it done.

0:21:50.359 --> 0:21:55.359
<v Speaker 8>So we really advance five policy solutions. There are lots

0:21:55.359 --> 0:21:58.560
<v Speaker 8>of important areas that need to be attended to, but

0:21:58.680 --> 0:22:02.320
<v Speaker 8>we focus on these areas that have we think the

0:22:02.359 --> 0:22:06.120
<v Speaker 8>strongest evidence base. The first is requiring people to get

0:22:06.160 --> 0:22:09.560
<v Speaker 8>a license before buying a gun. This is associated with

0:22:09.920 --> 0:22:12.960
<v Speaker 8>fewer guns diverted for use in crime, lower rates of

0:22:12.960 --> 0:22:16.639
<v Speaker 8>mass shootings and homicide, lower rates of suicide, and also

0:22:16.880 --> 0:22:21.159
<v Speaker 8>lower rates of shootings by police. The second policy is

0:22:21.359 --> 0:22:25.520
<v Speaker 8>about regulating how people carry guns in public spaces. What

0:22:25.680 --> 0:22:29.160
<v Speaker 8>kinds of objective criteria can we set out to minimize

0:22:29.160 --> 0:22:32.800
<v Speaker 8>the harms when people are having guns in public spaces.

0:22:33.480 --> 0:22:37.360
<v Speaker 8>The third policy is we generally refer to as firearm removal.

0:22:37.440 --> 0:22:41.760
<v Speaker 8>This includes domestic violence and extreme risk protection order laws

0:22:42.160 --> 0:22:45.159
<v Speaker 8>those that separate from someone who is at risk of

0:22:45.160 --> 0:22:48.680
<v Speaker 8>harming themselves or others they're firearms and keep them from

0:22:48.720 --> 0:22:50.520
<v Speaker 8>buying more for the duration of the order.

0:22:51.240 --> 0:22:52.760
<v Speaker 9>The fourth policy is.

0:22:52.880 --> 0:22:57.639
<v Speaker 8>About funding and effectively evaluating community based violence prevention programs,

0:22:58.200 --> 0:23:01.680
<v Speaker 8>identifying those who are at elevated risk of violence involvement,

0:23:01.840 --> 0:23:06.639
<v Speaker 8>and getting them supportive services. The final policy is about

0:23:06.640 --> 0:23:10.280
<v Speaker 8>safe and secure gun storage, so having effective policies in

0:23:10.280 --> 0:23:14.040
<v Speaker 8>place that hold people liable when they behave negligently with

0:23:14.119 --> 0:23:18.480
<v Speaker 8>their firearms. But it's also about promoting responsible gun ownership.

0:23:18.720 --> 0:23:21.200
<v Speaker 8>What are the kinds of behaviors we think come along

0:23:21.240 --> 0:23:22.920
<v Speaker 8>with the rights of having a gun in the home,

0:23:23.000 --> 0:23:26.480
<v Speaker 8>and that includes safely storing your guns to ensure that

0:23:26.640 --> 0:23:27.960
<v Speaker 8>kids and teens can't gain.

0:23:27.800 --> 0:23:28.480
<v Speaker 9>Access to them.

0:23:28.720 --> 0:23:31.240
<v Speaker 2>And to your point, we only have about thirty seconds left.

0:23:31.240 --> 0:23:33.760
<v Speaker 2>But gun doests among children are declining, but your data

0:23:33.800 --> 0:23:35.760
<v Speaker 2>do show that guns are still the leading cause of

0:23:35.800 --> 0:23:38.479
<v Speaker 2>death among children and teens. And is it due to

0:23:38.600 --> 0:23:41.760
<v Speaker 2>what you were just talking about responsponsible gun ownership?

0:23:42.880 --> 0:23:47.439
<v Speaker 8>Certainly, Unsecured firearms are an important source of injury for

0:23:47.640 --> 0:23:51.200
<v Speaker 8>children and teens, including kids getting access to guns and

0:23:51.280 --> 0:23:54.960
<v Speaker 8>taking them into schools. Guns are the leading cause of

0:23:55.000 --> 0:23:57.800
<v Speaker 8>death for kids and teens. And while they have been

0:23:58.280 --> 0:24:02.119
<v Speaker 8>on the decline, it's up almost over the last decade,

0:24:02.119 --> 0:24:04.719
<v Speaker 8>So we really need to be promoting safe and secure

0:24:04.720 --> 0:24:05.360
<v Speaker 8>gun storage.

0:24:05.359 --> 0:24:07.160
<v Speaker 5>All right, Cassandra, thank you very much for your time.

0:24:07.200 --> 0:24:10.719
<v Speaker 5>Really appreciate getting your thoughts. Casenter Crafossi, Deputy director of

0:24:10.760 --> 0:24:13.400
<v Speaker 5>the Center for Gun Violence Solutions to JOHNS. Compkins Bloomberg

0:24:13.400 --> 0:24:15.720
<v Speaker 5>School of Public Health, and of course the Bloomberg School

0:24:15.800 --> 0:24:18.480
<v Speaker 5>of Public Health is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, the

0:24:18.520 --> 0:24:22.680
<v Speaker 5>founder of Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Philanthropies and this little radio

0:24:23.040 --> 0:24:26.320
<v Speaker 5>UH and TV operation here, So you appreciate getting time

0:24:26.359 --> 0:24:27.000
<v Speaker 5>from Ms.

0:24:27.040 --> 0:24:36.120
<v Speaker 7>Grafossi. Umbromcome a journal.

0:24:37.160 --> 0:24:38.120
<v Speaker 5>How about you let me drive.

0:24:38.400 --> 0:24:42.560
<v Speaker 6>Oh no, no, no, no, he's gone drive honey, please, I'll

0:24:42.600 --> 0:24:45.680
<v Speaker 6>do the gravest I want to drive.

0:24:47.920 --> 0:24:48.840
<v Speaker 5>It's a good question.

0:24:52.600 --> 0:24:54.840
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the Globe.

0:24:54.760 --> 0:24:58.359
<v Speaker 7>Dot com for me effect well ber jot it on.

0:24:57.800 --> 0:25:01.879
<v Speaker 2>On Bloomberg Radio Jessamin and Paul Sweeney here in the

0:25:01.880 --> 0:25:05.639
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in for Tim Senovic and Carol

0:25:05.680 --> 0:25:08.480
<v Speaker 2>Masser today who have the day off and taking a

0:25:08.520 --> 0:25:11.320
<v Speaker 2>look more broadly stocks coming off session loads. We have

0:25:11.320 --> 0:25:13.520
<v Speaker 2>a little under forty minutes before the closing bell, the

0:25:13.560 --> 0:25:15.560
<v Speaker 2>S and P five hundred, trimming some of those losses

0:25:15.600 --> 0:25:19.960
<v Speaker 2>amid some gains here in defensive groups like utilities and healthcare,

0:25:20.000 --> 0:25:22.080
<v Speaker 2>and traders also keeping a close eye on some of

0:25:22.080 --> 0:25:24.600
<v Speaker 2>this latest economic data, Paul, when it comes to some

0:25:24.640 --> 0:25:27.600
<v Speaker 2>of these solid jobbless claims, basically.

0:25:27.280 --> 0:25:29.920
<v Speaker 3>Reinforcing the case that maybe the Fed to keep.

0:25:29.800 --> 0:25:32.640
<v Speaker 2>Rates elevated at that September twentieth decision. But who better

0:25:32.720 --> 0:25:35.560
<v Speaker 2>to walk us through some of this latest when it

0:25:35.600 --> 0:25:38.719
<v Speaker 2>comes to the markets than Jake Jolly, head of investment

0:25:38.800 --> 0:25:41.960
<v Speaker 2>analysis at B and Y Mellon Investment Management, here in

0:25:41.960 --> 0:25:44.760
<v Speaker 2>the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Thanks so much for joining

0:25:44.800 --> 0:25:48.440
<v Speaker 2>Paul and myself this afternoon, walk us through, starting off

0:25:48.560 --> 0:25:51.239
<v Speaker 2>just with your take on today's market action and what

0:25:51.280 --> 0:25:53.440
<v Speaker 2>you think is happening underneath the surface here.

0:25:54.080 --> 0:25:56.119
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, I mean the way well, first off, thanks for

0:25:56.119 --> 0:25:58.359
<v Speaker 10>having me. You know, the way I would sort of

0:25:58.400 --> 0:26:02.800
<v Speaker 10>characterize what we've been seeing right is, let's know, where

0:26:02.800 --> 0:26:06.280
<v Speaker 10>did we come from? Right through the summer, it was

0:26:06.320 --> 0:26:09.760
<v Speaker 10>a pretty strong market, We had positive economics prizes, growth

0:26:09.800 --> 0:26:14.320
<v Speaker 10>has been very resilient, disinflationary story has remained intact. Things

0:26:14.359 --> 0:26:16.400
<v Speaker 10>probably got a little bit stretched towards the end of July.

0:26:16.600 --> 0:26:18.920
<v Speaker 10>We've had, you know, the pullback in August. Sentiment I

0:26:18.920 --> 0:26:21.560
<v Speaker 10>think has normalized a bit at the same time that

0:26:21.600 --> 0:26:26.320
<v Speaker 10>we've obviously had much higher yields today rolling into Steptember.

0:26:26.359 --> 0:26:28.840
<v Speaker 10>You know, we know that seasonality is going to be

0:26:28.840 --> 0:26:31.720
<v Speaker 10>working against us, right, but I think you know, from

0:26:31.760 --> 0:26:35.200
<v Speaker 10>our perspective, why we're maybe a little more cautious kind

0:26:35.200 --> 0:26:37.320
<v Speaker 10>of through the end of the year is really around

0:26:37.320 --> 0:26:39.320
<v Speaker 10>the fact that you know, what's priced in, and our

0:26:39.400 --> 0:26:43.040
<v Speaker 10>view is that, you know, consensus has moved pretty aggressively

0:26:43.080 --> 0:26:45.560
<v Speaker 10>towards a soft landing narrative, right, So what.

0:26:45.520 --> 0:26:46.000
<v Speaker 6>Does that mean?

0:26:46.040 --> 0:26:49.679
<v Speaker 10>It means that data incoming needs to basically reinforce that

0:26:49.760 --> 0:26:52.240
<v Speaker 10>soft landing, and if it misses, you know, you could

0:26:52.280 --> 0:26:55.399
<v Speaker 10>definitely see a repricing lower. So I think that, you know,

0:26:55.480 --> 0:26:58.280
<v Speaker 10>obviously not today, there's some idiosyncratics things going on. But

0:26:58.880 --> 0:27:02.040
<v Speaker 10>to me, the price action that we saw yesterday on

0:27:02.080 --> 0:27:06.400
<v Speaker 10>the backside of the services prices paid in IM really

0:27:06.440 --> 0:27:09.000
<v Speaker 10>suggests that this is a market that wants to kind

0:27:09.000 --> 0:27:12.760
<v Speaker 10>of question that disinflation narrative out there.

0:27:12.800 --> 0:27:14.000
<v Speaker 6>Absolutely. I mean, I don't know.

0:27:14.040 --> 0:27:17.080
<v Speaker 5>I've been in the I took recession off the table,

0:27:17.200 --> 0:27:18.639
<v Speaker 5>I would say three or four months ago, so I

0:27:18.720 --> 0:27:20.840
<v Speaker 5>kind of feel like I was a little only released sight.

0:27:21.040 --> 0:27:22.840
<v Speaker 5>But maybe I'm rongd Matt doesn't buy it. Matt Melow

0:27:22.880 --> 0:27:25.000
<v Speaker 5>does not buy my call there, since I took all

0:27:25.000 --> 0:27:27.560
<v Speaker 5>of I think two economics classes in my NBA career.

0:27:27.640 --> 0:27:31.040
<v Speaker 5>So so Jake, So, how are you guys positioned at

0:27:31.320 --> 0:27:33.359
<v Speaker 5>B and Y Melon, I mean, do we do you

0:27:33.440 --> 0:27:35.439
<v Speaker 5>take risk on here, whether it's in the equity markets

0:27:35.520 --> 0:27:38.040
<v Speaker 5>or fixed income or have you pulled back a little bit?

0:27:38.359 --> 0:27:42.040
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, I mean it's a very difficult tactical call. You know,

0:27:42.119 --> 0:27:44.119
<v Speaker 10>you were right to make that call to take the

0:27:44.160 --> 0:27:46.120
<v Speaker 10>recession off the table for this year.

0:27:46.720 --> 0:27:47.440
<v Speaker 6>Unfortunately.

0:27:47.600 --> 0:27:49.400
<v Speaker 10>Our take on it is that when we look at

0:27:49.440 --> 0:27:52.280
<v Speaker 10>the leading economic indicators, when we assess kind of where

0:27:52.320 --> 0:27:55.119
<v Speaker 10>we think inflation is going to head, we think that

0:27:55.160 --> 0:27:57.000
<v Speaker 10>there's still a material.

0:27:56.720 --> 0:27:58.440
<v Speaker 6>Risk of a recession next year.

0:27:58.480 --> 0:28:01.160
<v Speaker 10>So that's why kind of we don't think it's really

0:28:01.160 --> 0:28:03.680
<v Speaker 10>the right time to be aggressively re risking right now.

0:28:03.840 --> 0:28:07.000
<v Speaker 10>We really continue to see much better opportunities in terms

0:28:07.040 --> 0:28:10.199
<v Speaker 10>of a risk reward trade off within high quality fixed income,

0:28:11.320 --> 0:28:15.119
<v Speaker 10>so that that hasn't changed. We have been emphasizing to

0:28:15.480 --> 0:28:17.960
<v Speaker 10>folks that you know, we are nearing the end of

0:28:18.000 --> 0:28:20.840
<v Speaker 10>this this hiking cycle, and historically that's really when you

0:28:20.880 --> 0:28:24.960
<v Speaker 10>want to start extending duration. And then on the equity side,

0:28:25.400 --> 0:28:28.200
<v Speaker 10>equityside of the story, it's really about kind of where

0:28:28.240 --> 0:28:31.520
<v Speaker 10>can you build you know, resilience into your portfolio. Right

0:28:31.560 --> 0:28:34.680
<v Speaker 10>It's not about you know, sitting out the rally, because

0:28:34.680 --> 0:28:37.720
<v Speaker 10>certainly there's enough uncertainty that you could, you know, definitely

0:28:37.720 --> 0:28:40.200
<v Speaker 10>have another leg higher, but I think it's going to

0:28:40.400 --> 0:28:44.200
<v Speaker 10>you know, really rely on that disinflationary story being reinforced

0:28:44.200 --> 0:28:46.440
<v Speaker 10>by the incoming data, and we see that as being

0:28:46.480 --> 0:28:48.280
<v Speaker 10>you know, the risk in this fall.

0:28:48.560 --> 0:28:50.720
<v Speaker 2>One thing I'm curious about is when we look at

0:28:50.720 --> 0:28:53.680
<v Speaker 2>the ten year treasury yield that's trading around four twenty

0:28:53.720 --> 0:28:54.440
<v Speaker 2>six right now.

0:28:54.480 --> 0:28:56.200
<v Speaker 3>A peaked out around a four.

0:28:56.240 --> 0:28:59.080
<v Speaker 2>Thirty three last month. But when you think about where

0:28:59.680 --> 0:29:03.120
<v Speaker 2>it its high last autumn versus where the S and

0:29:03.160 --> 0:29:05.120
<v Speaker 2>P five hundred was trading at at that point that

0:29:05.200 --> 0:29:07.080
<v Speaker 2>was thirty five hundred. You look now the S and

0:29:07.120 --> 0:29:09.600
<v Speaker 2>P five hundreds up almost a thousand points since then.

0:29:09.880 --> 0:29:13.000
<v Speaker 2>What's the difference in the bond market and why haven't

0:29:13.000 --> 0:29:15.960
<v Speaker 2>we seen some same pressure and longer duration stocks like

0:29:15.960 --> 0:29:17.520
<v Speaker 2>we would have seen a year ago.

0:29:18.440 --> 0:29:21.600
<v Speaker 10>That's a great question, and there's no simple answer for that.

0:29:21.600 --> 0:29:25.000
<v Speaker 10>That's why you have this job because and I think

0:29:25.120 --> 0:29:28.160
<v Speaker 10>you know it deserves scrutiny. You know, that's the real answer,

0:29:28.280 --> 0:29:31.640
<v Speaker 10>because last year was all about, you know, this aggressive

0:29:31.680 --> 0:29:35.440
<v Speaker 10>hiking cycle, the de rating off of you know, elevated multiples.

0:29:35.440 --> 0:29:37.480
<v Speaker 10>At the start of twenty twenty two, right I think

0:29:37.480 --> 0:29:39.280
<v Speaker 10>the SMP was trading at about twenty three times at

0:29:39.280 --> 0:29:41.080
<v Speaker 10>the start at twenty and twenty two. We had a

0:29:41.120 --> 0:29:43.880
<v Speaker 10>trough last year at about sixteen times. Now we're back

0:29:43.920 --> 0:29:47.280
<v Speaker 10>at nineteen twenty times. You know, is that a fair valuation.

0:29:48.600 --> 0:29:51.360
<v Speaker 10>It's not extreme, I would say, but I would also

0:29:51.400 --> 0:29:55.920
<v Speaker 10>say that it is elevated relative to you know, what

0:29:55.960 --> 0:29:58.800
<v Speaker 10>we expect going forward, right, and that is that the

0:29:58.880 --> 0:30:02.320
<v Speaker 10>recession risk is is still quite high. And by the way,

0:30:02.360 --> 0:30:04.360
<v Speaker 10>if you kind of look, you know, underneath the hood,

0:30:04.640 --> 0:30:08.240
<v Speaker 10>the you know, tech multiples are pretty much back to

0:30:08.320 --> 0:30:10.720
<v Speaker 10>that twenty twenty two right, So it's actually the other

0:30:10.800 --> 0:30:13.520
<v Speaker 10>sectors that have gotten a bit cheaper relative to the

0:30:13.520 --> 0:30:16.719
<v Speaker 10>start twenty twenty two, but tech is looking kind of

0:30:16.760 --> 0:30:20.520
<v Speaker 10>just where it started. So and that decoupling is kind

0:30:20.520 --> 0:30:22.200
<v Speaker 10>of what you're referring to, the fact that we've had

0:30:22.280 --> 0:30:24.440
<v Speaker 10>rates move higher, but long duration is kind of held

0:30:24.440 --> 0:30:24.840
<v Speaker 10>in there.

0:30:25.080 --> 0:30:25.280
<v Speaker 2>You know.

0:30:25.360 --> 0:30:27.600
<v Speaker 10>Part of that, of course is the AI story, right,

0:30:27.640 --> 0:30:31.560
<v Speaker 10>I mean, you're you're factoring in much better earnings growth expectations,

0:30:31.560 --> 0:30:34.680
<v Speaker 10>So that's I think offsetting it a bit. But at

0:30:34.680 --> 0:30:36.840
<v Speaker 10>the same time, I think it does speak to you know,

0:30:36.840 --> 0:30:38.360
<v Speaker 10>there's still a lot of risk out there because we

0:30:38.400 --> 0:30:40.800
<v Speaker 10>are in the middle of this tightening cycle. We think

0:30:40.840 --> 0:30:43.480
<v Speaker 10>that there's still our risk to the cumulative tightening, and

0:30:43.520 --> 0:30:46.320
<v Speaker 10>that means that there's risk to those multiples still well.

0:30:46.440 --> 0:30:49.000
<v Speaker 5>So that's on the multiple side how about on the earnings.

0:30:49.080 --> 0:30:50.840
<v Speaker 5>I you know, the second quarter earnings were a little

0:30:50.840 --> 0:30:55.000
<v Speaker 5>bit better than expected. But if you've got a recession

0:30:55.040 --> 0:30:56.880
<v Speaker 5>still kind of fifty to fifty out there, do you

0:30:56.920 --> 0:30:59.040
<v Speaker 5>think there's still earnings risk out there that the market

0:30:59.080 --> 0:30:59.600
<v Speaker 5>needs to deal with?

0:31:00.240 --> 0:31:02.800
<v Speaker 10>And I think it's actually pretty similar to kind of

0:31:02.800 --> 0:31:04.600
<v Speaker 10>what I was referring to in terms of the you know,

0:31:04.640 --> 0:31:09.080
<v Speaker 10>the growth, economic growth, and this dissiflation story is being

0:31:09.080 --> 0:31:11.560
<v Speaker 10>pretty optimistic. The same is actually kind of true on

0:31:11.600 --> 0:31:15.040
<v Speaker 10>the earning side as well. Right, I would describe earnings

0:31:15.080 --> 0:31:19.000
<v Speaker 10>results so far this year is basically being better than feared. Right,

0:31:19.040 --> 0:31:22.200
<v Speaker 10>We mark down expectations quite a bit from kind of

0:31:22.200 --> 0:31:25.479
<v Speaker 10>mid last year, and so far this year earnings have

0:31:25.800 --> 0:31:28.720
<v Speaker 10>again been better than feared. So it hasn't derailed the rally.

0:31:28.760 --> 0:31:31.640
<v Speaker 10>It hasn't sort of caused this knee jerk reaction to say, oh,

0:31:31.720 --> 0:31:33.920
<v Speaker 10>you know, we're the earnings growth needs it to really

0:31:33.960 --> 0:31:37.760
<v Speaker 10>come down. But now if you look at where consensus is,

0:31:38.080 --> 0:31:41.120
<v Speaker 10>you're basically seeing that, Okay, two Q was the trough,

0:31:41.320 --> 0:31:43.520
<v Speaker 10>and now we're going to have sequentially better and better

0:31:43.560 --> 0:31:45.960
<v Speaker 10>earnings growth going forward and then into twenty twenty four

0:31:46.640 --> 0:31:49.000
<v Speaker 10>for the s and P five hundred in aggregate ten

0:31:49.040 --> 0:31:53.320
<v Speaker 10>percent earnings growth. Now that's you know, not kind of extreme,

0:31:53.560 --> 0:31:56.120
<v Speaker 10>but it means you have a year where you don't

0:31:56.120 --> 0:31:59.800
<v Speaker 10>have a recession, you have a solid recovery. And I

0:31:59.800 --> 0:32:02.680
<v Speaker 10>think think that for this rally to continue, you know,

0:32:02.840 --> 0:32:05.800
<v Speaker 10>the follow through has to be there. And our view

0:32:05.880 --> 0:32:09.400
<v Speaker 10>is that companies are going to continue to face margin pressure,

0:32:10.480 --> 0:32:11.960
<v Speaker 10>the labor costs.

0:32:11.640 --> 0:32:12.240
<v Speaker 6>Side of the story.

0:32:12.280 --> 0:32:16.280
<v Speaker 10>I don't think that's completely in the past now, so

0:32:16.400 --> 0:32:19.280
<v Speaker 10>we are, you know, looking hard at that and think

0:32:19.360 --> 0:32:21.200
<v Speaker 10>that that's where you could see a bit of risk.

0:32:21.880 --> 0:32:25.120
<v Speaker 2>What's the top question that you hear from your clients.

0:32:26.080 --> 0:32:28.360
<v Speaker 10>Probably when are you going to stop talking about recessions?

0:32:31.600 --> 0:32:34.320
<v Speaker 10>I mean, you know, the thing is when you look

0:32:34.320 --> 0:32:36.760
<v Speaker 10>at the leading indicators, right, I think the conference boards

0:32:36.880 --> 0:32:38.880
<v Speaker 10>leading economic interacy has made I feel.

0:32:38.680 --> 0:32:41.040
<v Speaker 2>Like investors also like to scrutinize that and say it's

0:32:41.040 --> 0:32:42.040
<v Speaker 2>a lagging indicator.

0:32:42.120 --> 0:32:45.160
<v Speaker 10>Right, Well, it is all known information right when it

0:32:45.200 --> 0:32:47.560
<v Speaker 10>comes out, we already know everything that's in there. But

0:32:48.400 --> 0:32:52.120
<v Speaker 10>the bottom line is that there's still information there. And

0:32:52.240 --> 0:32:54.640
<v Speaker 10>I don't think we should dismiss it. Dismiss it just

0:32:54.680 --> 0:32:57.720
<v Speaker 10>because we're facing fatigue, just because we've been talking about

0:32:57.760 --> 0:33:00.280
<v Speaker 10>it so long. The reality is that you know, we

0:33:00.360 --> 0:33:03.080
<v Speaker 10>have a bear market last year. We've now exited that

0:33:03.120 --> 0:33:06.400
<v Speaker 10>bear market, and all of that happened without a recession. Historically,

0:33:06.400 --> 0:33:09.160
<v Speaker 10>bear markets are associated with recessions, meaning that we are

0:33:09.160 --> 0:33:12.000
<v Speaker 10>recovering out of recession. That is not the case. Now

0:33:12.040 --> 0:33:15.120
<v Speaker 10>we're still facing down a risk of recession and to

0:33:15.240 --> 0:33:18.200
<v Speaker 10>us that that really deserves caution, right and it should

0:33:18.240 --> 0:33:21.160
<v Speaker 10>influence how you are trying to position your portfolio.

0:33:21.200 --> 0:33:23.800
<v Speaker 2>Also, that ECFC function that we like to look at

0:33:23.800 --> 0:33:25.680
<v Speaker 2>in the terminals, so that's where you can go. You

0:33:25.680 --> 0:33:28.800
<v Speaker 2>can look at how economists are projecting kind of an

0:33:28.800 --> 0:33:31.160
<v Speaker 2>aggregate in the terminal. You can look at yearly estimates

0:33:31.160 --> 0:33:33.040
<v Speaker 2>as well as quarterly. But when you look at a

0:33:33.120 --> 0:33:36.440
<v Speaker 2>quarterly basis, I mean, it's continued to be pushed out

0:33:36.480 --> 0:33:39.040
<v Speaker 2>to where there's not a contraction anymore. It just looks

0:33:39.040 --> 0:33:41.240
<v Speaker 2>like there's going to be flat growth in the fourth quarter,

0:33:41.320 --> 0:33:43.440
<v Speaker 2>that it picks up again going into next year. But

0:33:43.480 --> 0:33:47.080
<v Speaker 2>whenever people are talking about the consumer and the issues there,

0:33:47.160 --> 0:33:49.440
<v Speaker 2>I mean, what really has to change things? Because it

0:33:49.480 --> 0:33:53.880
<v Speaker 2>seems like whenever we're talking to different strategies, especially airlines

0:33:53.920 --> 0:33:55.120
<v Speaker 2>and things like that a lot of people are still

0:33:55.120 --> 0:33:57.920
<v Speaker 2>traveling in Europe, not as much domestically. But what really

0:33:57.960 --> 0:34:00.600
<v Speaker 2>needs to change here to where we see see things

0:34:00.680 --> 0:34:03.120
<v Speaker 2>actually shift since that is such a huge.

0:34:02.920 --> 0:34:05.560
<v Speaker 3>Component when we talk about GDP growth, I mean.

0:34:05.480 --> 0:34:06.680
<v Speaker 6>It's the labor market, right.

0:34:06.800 --> 0:34:10.680
<v Speaker 10>The big conundrum through this cycle has been how consumer

0:34:10.760 --> 0:34:15.000
<v Speaker 10>surveys have remained very pessimistic. They have not recovered since COVID,

0:34:15.320 --> 0:34:17.399
<v Speaker 10>at the same time that the consumer buy and large

0:34:17.440 --> 0:34:20.239
<v Speaker 10>has been much more resilient than people expected, right. And

0:34:20.440 --> 0:34:23.880
<v Speaker 10>people point to the excess savings, they point to the

0:34:24.120 --> 0:34:29.640
<v Speaker 10>moratoria among on student loans, you can talk about you know, yolo,

0:34:29.840 --> 0:34:32.360
<v Speaker 10>all of these things that that sort of could be

0:34:32.719 --> 0:34:37.279
<v Speaker 10>underpinning this, the underpinning the consumer. But the reality is

0:34:37.320 --> 0:34:39.600
<v Speaker 10>that I think the simplest answer is probably the right one,

0:34:39.640 --> 0:34:41.760
<v Speaker 10>which is to say that most people still have jobs.

0:34:41.800 --> 0:34:44.319
<v Speaker 10>People are confident that they've you know, if they aren't

0:34:44.360 --> 0:34:47.200
<v Speaker 10>getting a increase in their wages this year, they probably

0:34:47.239 --> 0:34:50.800
<v Speaker 10>got one recently, so they're probably still, you know, feeling

0:34:50.880 --> 0:34:55.920
<v Speaker 10>relatively optimistic about that. And ultimately, you know, the recessions.

0:34:55.960 --> 0:34:57.799
<v Speaker 10>If you want to know how recession starts, you look

0:34:57.800 --> 0:34:59.759
<v Speaker 10>at the jump and jobless claims and you just haven't

0:34:59.800 --> 0:35:01.680
<v Speaker 10>seen that. He's seen a bit of weakness at the edges,

0:35:01.760 --> 0:35:02.319
<v Speaker 10>but buy and.

0:35:02.360 --> 0:35:03.320
<v Speaker 6>Large still holding together.

0:35:03.640 --> 0:35:06.439
<v Speaker 10>But unfortunately that doesn't tell us too much about where

0:35:06.440 --> 0:35:07.640
<v Speaker 10>we're all right.

0:35:07.680 --> 0:35:08.799
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, the job markets has.

0:35:08.680 --> 0:35:10.960
<v Speaker 5>Been an amazing that the market has been just amazing.

0:35:11.520 --> 0:35:13.120
<v Speaker 6>Jake, thanks for work for joining us, Jake Jolly.

0:35:13.360 --> 0:35:16.200
<v Speaker 5>He's head of investment analysis at b and Y Mellon

0:35:16.280 --> 0:35:17.320
<v Speaker 5>Investment Management.

0:35:18.640 --> 0:35:23.279
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:35:23.440 --> 0:35:27.160
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0:35:30.840 --> 0:35:34.160
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