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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Let's turn out to

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Speaker 1: the energy sector with WTI and Brent at four month highs,

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Speaker 1: building on its best weekly rally since February, and there

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Speaker 1: are few signs of demand slowing down right now as well.

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Speaker 1: Co anchor Alex Steel is standing by now at our

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Speaker 1: Houston bureau with the CEO of Conical Phillips Alex All.

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Speaker 2: Right, scarb thank you so very much. Ryan, It's good

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Speaker 2: to see you.

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Speaker 3: Thank you, good to be here.

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Speaker 2: Thank thank you for joining. Okay oil four month high?

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Speaker 2: What is leading it? Supply demand? What's your take?

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Speaker 3: No, I think it's a little bit of both right now.

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Speaker 4: We're seeing some recovery out of the Asian markets and

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Speaker 4: some strength in the demand a lot of US led

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Speaker 4: by refined products right now, gasoline and diesel, and some

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Speaker 4: shortages that are developing there. But yeah, it's a pretty

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Speaker 4: constructive market right now. The OPEC plus group is continue

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Speaker 4: to restrain supply. US is still growing a little bit,

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Speaker 4: but it seems to be pretty balanced. Inventories are coming down,

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Speaker 4: they're not growing a little bit, so setting up a

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Speaker 4: pretty good short term macro demand.

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Speaker 5: So we think we're in a new range is it

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Speaker 5: a seventy to ninety or you feel sixty to eighty.

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Speaker 4: What do you think, Well, we've always spent kind of

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Speaker 4: seventy to ninety range. Feels pretty reasonable for right now

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Speaker 4: in the near term.

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Speaker 5: So what we've also seen in the near term is

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Speaker 5: so many of your peers going out with some big

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Speaker 5: M and A. Now, what's interesting about kind of goo

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Speaker 5: is you guys have always done things like three or

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Speaker 5: four years before other companies do, and you're not buying

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Speaker 5: anything today, No, what are you doing instead?

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Speaker 3: Well, we're kind of leaning in.

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Speaker 4: So we sat back a few years back and thought,

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Speaker 4: we're going to see a pretty constructive market going out

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Speaker 4: over the next number of years, probably the next five

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Speaker 4: to ten years, well above our mid cycle price for

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Speaker 4: that equilibrium world. So in doing so, we thought M

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Speaker 4: and A is going to be a little bit difficult

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Speaker 4: in this kind of a market. When prices are above

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Speaker 4: your mid cycle, it's tough to transact. But we looked

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Speaker 4: at what we could be doing as a company, and

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Speaker 4: that's where we wanted to start leaning in on the

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Speaker 4: L and G side of the business, leaning in on

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Speaker 4: some longer cycle projects like our willow project in Alaska.

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Speaker 4: So we're really spending time and spending some money doing that,

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Speaker 4: but not at the expense of returns to our investors.

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Speaker 4: So we're delivering competitive free cash flows to our investors

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Speaker 4: while investing over the long term in some of these

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Speaker 4: longer cycle projects because we think we're at the beginning

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Speaker 4: of a very constructive period in the macro, So now's

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Speaker 4: the time to lean in on some of those opportunities,

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Speaker 4: and we have a rich portfolio of them.

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Speaker 2: Is that a supercycle call from No, No.

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Speaker 3: It's not a supercycle call.

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Speaker 4: I just think it's going to be prices are going

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Speaker 4: to be very volatile in that seventy ninety range, but

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Speaker 4: well above our mid cycle price call in an equilibrium world.

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Speaker 4: So that's why we're leaning in a little bit more

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Speaker 4: constructive kind of throughout the we're decading into the next decade.

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Speaker 2: So let's get to the LNG part.

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Speaker 5: What are you guys doing with LNG that's different from

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Speaker 5: your peers.

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Speaker 4: So most of the ENP will sell sale some gas

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Speaker 4: into a liquifaction plant, but we've known about the technology.

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Speaker 4: We've been in the LNG business. We started that business

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Speaker 4: up in Alaska in the sixties and the first to

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Speaker 4: trade in the Pacific basin, so we know a lot

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Speaker 4: of We have our own proprietary liquefaction technology, So we're

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Speaker 4: leaning in to take advantage of where we think the

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Speaker 4: arbitrage is going to be between Europe and Asia relative

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Speaker 4: to Henry Hub price.

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Speaker 3: We see Henria prices being low for a long period

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Speaker 3: under two.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, natural gas is abundant in North America, but you

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Speaker 4: got to you got to invest in liquefaction. You have

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Speaker 4: to have ships, and you have to have regasification on

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Speaker 4: the other side, and customer relationships and a commercial organization

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Speaker 4: to manage that. And we have all of that sitting

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Speaker 4: inside our company. So that's a bit what we're unique

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Speaker 4: relative to our EMP piers with the capability and the

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Speaker 4: ability to take advantage of those arbitrage.

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Speaker 3: It really move gas to Europe and to Asian Okay,

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Speaker 3: so I.

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Speaker 2: Just say with you're for a second.

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Speaker 5: That means that you take the natural gas, you you

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Speaker 5: freeze it, you ship it on us, you put it

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Speaker 5: on a tanker, you ship it, you put it as

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Speaker 5: a Netherlands or Germany, and then they warm it.

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Speaker 2: Up back into natural gas and use it.

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Speaker 5: Yes, I thought that they were going to be all

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Speaker 5: hydrogen though, and they're going to be all green?

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Speaker 2: Is that not what you see?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think hydrogen is going to take a long

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Speaker 4: time to develop. I mean it's going to be it's

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Speaker 4: going to be a fuel and a transition fuel over

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Speaker 4: the over the years to come. But as we look

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Speaker 4: at even with the IRA build and some of the

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Speaker 4: incentives that are in place, it's going to take a

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Speaker 4: long time to develop those markets today and even Germany

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Speaker 4: and Europe basically is saying all they want is green

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Speaker 4: high hydrogen, which is very expensive. The way hydrogen is

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Speaker 4: going to develop is going to be gray, blue and

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Speaker 4: then green, and it's going to take a long time

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Speaker 4: to get those markets in place. So in the meantime,

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Speaker 4: gas is going to be really critical.

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Speaker 5: Gray blue and green. Just how you get the hydrogen?

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Speaker 5: What power are you used to get the hydrogen? You know,

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Speaker 5: we like colors. Okay, So to that point, what are

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Speaker 5: you guys doing in the energy transition? Like, are you

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Speaker 5: making big bets? Are you making little bets? How do

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Speaker 5: you see that kind of thing playing out for Como?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we're spreading it around a little bit. We're doing

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Speaker 4: things that are adja have adjacencies to the capabilities that

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Speaker 4: we have as a company. So clearly, for a long

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Speaker 4: time we've been injecting stuff down into the ground.

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Speaker 3: So CCUS makes a.

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Speaker 4: Whole lot of sense to us, both to decarbonized sort

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Speaker 4: of the Canadian all sands that we're a big player in,

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Speaker 4: or in and around our liquefaction facilities that we're building

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Speaker 4: here in the US, or even our own operations that

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Speaker 4: we have around the US and really around the world.

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Speaker 3: So CCUS or.

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Speaker 4: Carbon capture and underground storage is something that we're leaning into.

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Speaker 4: We are looking at hydrogen. We have a project in

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Speaker 4: Corpus Christy that we're looking at today that includes sequestration

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Speaker 4: of the CO two starts out as a blue or

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Speaker 4: taking hydrogen from natural gas, injecting the CO two and

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Speaker 4: selling the hydrogen to customers. And we're aligning ourselves with

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Speaker 4: the customers similar to how we built the LNG business,

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Speaker 4: you know, fifty sixty years ago, in bringing the customers

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Speaker 4: into the project. And they have to be willing to

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Speaker 4: pay you a fair price over long term to justify

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Speaker 4: that large infrastructure being built.

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Speaker 2: How hard is that price to come by right now?

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Speaker 3: It's pretty hard.

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Speaker 2: How well is that spread?

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Speaker 4: It's still you know, it's still out of the money,

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Speaker 4: if you will. So it's going to take some work.

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Speaker 4: We have to get technology to come to bear. We

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Speaker 4: have to lower the cost of these facilities. We've got

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Speaker 4: to get customers to sign up for long term contracts

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Speaker 4: that will give us a competitive return on the investment

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Speaker 4: that we're making.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so they're still a long ways to go to connect.

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Speaker 5: All those pieces de risking the demand side, not just

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Speaker 5: the actual build out instructure side.

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Speaker 2: So I did want to get your take on a main.

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Speaker 5: Theme here in Houston which I was not expecting, was

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Speaker 5: the massive buildout in data centers and AI and the

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Speaker 5: power that's needed, and how the power is not necessarily

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Speaker 5: there yet.

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Speaker 2: Do you have tech executives calling you right now.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they are. It's pretty fascinating right now. This AI,

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Speaker 4: machine learning, deep language model revolution is going to be huge,

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Speaker 4: and the energy needs to build to satisfy these data

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Speaker 4: warehouses and all these the cloud infrastructure that we have

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Speaker 4: in place and these data warehouses that are needed to

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Speaker 4: power this AI revolution.

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Speaker 3: The energy needs are going.

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Speaker 4: To be enormous and it's going to take all the

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Speaker 4: It's going to take a bunch of wind, it's going

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Speaker 4: to take a bunch of solar. It's going to take nuclear,

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Speaker 4: it's going to take all in gas in order to

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Speaker 4: satisfy the energy needs of this growing business where the

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Speaker 4: US has a huge competitive advantage.

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Speaker 5: Do you think that they'll be all that the data

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Speaker 5: centers will plug into the grid or do you think

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Speaker 5: they'll be sort of direct power where they're like, hey,

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Speaker 5: well not you. You're not a power company, but hey

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Speaker 5: you ran empower company, will you supply me directly?

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Speaker 1: No?

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Speaker 4: I think it's going to be a mixture of both.

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Speaker 4: The most things they can need they need three sixty

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Speaker 4: five twenty four hours a day, all the time power,

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Speaker 4: so renewables with battery backups don't necessarily satisfy their baseload needs.

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Speaker 4: So it's going to have to be a combination power

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Speaker 4: that externally comes in from maybe a renewable source, but

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Speaker 4: they're going to have to be connected to the grid

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Speaker 4: as well. That's the problem that's coming YEP, is the

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Speaker 4: infrastructure of the transmission lines to get the power that

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Speaker 4: the needs that are going to be required or enormous.

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Speaker 5: Do you think we're going to be able to build

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Speaker 5: all the data centers that everyone says they're going to build.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's hard to do that math and somebody and

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Speaker 4: I think the real question is going to be what's

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Speaker 4: the impact on the energy. I think it's going to

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Speaker 4: be self confining to itself because of the energy needs

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Speaker 4: and the water needs.

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Speaker 2: I've really you go.

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Speaker 5: You were one of the few CEOs last year to

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Speaker 5: call the growth in US oil production.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I got a lot of criticism early on you did,

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Speaker 3: but you're right.

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Speaker 5: And McCrory says you could see fourteen million barrels of

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Speaker 5: oil a day this year in the US.

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Speaker 2: What's your expectation.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, our models would indicate probably three to five hundred

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Speaker 4: thousand barrels a day of growth this year coming, and

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Speaker 4: the growth and is starting to moderate. Last year we

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Speaker 4: saw about eight hundred thousand, which is what our models

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Speaker 4: would have predicted.

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Speaker 3: So it is.

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Speaker 4: Starting to moderate a little bit, but still growing. And

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Speaker 4: I think the US will go will surpass fourteen main

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Speaker 4: boroughs a day. We'll not this year, but over the

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Speaker 4: next couple of years.

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Speaker 2: What would what.

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Speaker 5: Will be the circumstances where you guys would put more

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Speaker 5: money into the lower forty eight.

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Speaker 4: Well, we're pretty balanced. We have a diversified global portfolio.

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Speaker 4: We're putting money in to make sure that we're really

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Speaker 4: focused on returns. We're just focus on making sure that

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Speaker 4: we get the efficiency and the technology deployed there were

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Speaker 4: maximizing in the returns on the capitol that we're investing.

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Speaker 4: We are ramping our capital in the US lower forty eight,

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Speaker 4: we're ramping in Alaska, we're ramping in Canada. So it

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Speaker 4: is there's capital coming off in other parts of our portfolios.

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Speaker 4: So we can kind of keep the capital flat across

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Speaker 4: the whole company in about eleven billion dollars, which is

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Speaker 4: what we're spending today. But the lower forty eight, the

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Speaker 4: unconventional is get the predominance of that capital.

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Speaker 2: One last question here, a secretary of Grand Home just spoke.

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Speaker 5: It seemed like there was going to be some relief

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Speaker 5: in the LNG export pause. There's an election coming up.

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Speaker 5: How does polt Ticks factor into riolance?

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Speaker 3: Not at all, not not a bit.

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Speaker 4: Well, no, it's it's uh yeah, I mean we're concerned.

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Speaker 4: The customers are calling us and telling us, hey, what's happening.

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Speaker 4: You know, what what does this mean for the long

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Speaker 4: term future? And what it's doing is it's setting up

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Speaker 4: the problem in two or three years so if the

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Speaker 4: pause continues for a period of time, then customers are

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Speaker 4: getting uncertain about what the future stands, and producers of

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Speaker 4: gas are saying, am I going to have an outlet

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Speaker 4: for my gas? So it's leading to sort of low levels,

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Speaker 4: lower levels activity. Current prices driving that as well, And

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Speaker 4: if you continue with a pause and you do that,

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Speaker 4: you're feeding the next cycle. That means higher gas prices

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Speaker 4: coming as a result of trying to pause this for

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Speaker 4: too long. So yes, it absolutely has an impact in

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Speaker 4: the market as we think about our plans and the

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Speaker 4: LNG projects that we're trying to build on the Gulf Coast.

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Speaker 4: You know, it's real and it has an impact.

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Speaker 5: Now.

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Speaker 4: I get what they're trying to do and assess what

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Speaker 4: the US market is going to look like. But you

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Speaker 4: could you could do that in parallel. You could make

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Speaker 4: these assessments at the same time you're moving it along.

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Speaker 4: They've chosen to do something different.

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Speaker 2: It goes away after November.

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Speaker 3: Six, I don't know. I hope it does. It needs to.

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Speaker 5: Hey, Ryan, it's so good to catch up with you

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Speaker 5: really appreciate it. Ryan Lance, German and CEO of kind

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Speaker 5: of Go Filter