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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts. If you are even remotely

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Speaker 1: a savage, you'll run these people over for a second spot.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview. I'm

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Speaker 2: your host Shawan Zerillo, joined today by Billy Ward to

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Speaker 2: help you break down the thirteen fight card for UFC

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Speaker 2: REE sixteen, giving your best bets, favorite underdogs, top props,

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Speaker 2: and moren If you'd like to tail some of the

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Speaker 2: bets that we discussed on today's show, make for make

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Speaker 2: sure to find the quick slit links both in the

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Speaker 2: podcast and the video description, or go to Action network

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Speaker 2: dot com slash bet now. The main event bantomly title

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Speaker 2: bat between Mirau Devashphili minus two seventy on the money

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Speaker 2: line and Sean O'Malley at plus two thirty. The first

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Speaker 2: fight closed as a pick them Morob was plus one

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Speaker 2: oh five. The first fight also closed around a pick

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Speaker 2: them to go to a decision at minus one ten.

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Speaker 2: As I said, Morob around minus two seventy and the

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Speaker 2: ghost to decision line also around the same price about

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Speaker 2: minus two to sixty. In this rematch, should also mention

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Speaker 2: Sean O'Malley plus two hundred to win by ko in

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Speaker 2: the first fight now plus five seventy five in the

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Speaker 2: rematch after the money line adjustment, O'Malley moving from about

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Speaker 2: thirty three percent implied to win by KO to about

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Speaker 2: eighteen percent implied, so very substantial adjustments both to the

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Speaker 2: money line and the goest to decision props. Now by

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Speaker 2: Pride rules, Morob undoubtedly won the first fight. I would

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Speaker 2: say one to eighty five percent ninety percent of the

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Speaker 2: minutes in that first fight, but by round by round scoring,

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Speaker 2: realistically he was only a few strikes away in round

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Speaker 2: one for O'Malley from losing that decision and having Sean

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Speaker 2: retain the title. Now watching it back, I just watched

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Speaker 2: the entire fight back this morning. I really thought Murra

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Speaker 2: won the first four rounds. Thought O'Malley won round five

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Speaker 2: with those teeth kicks where he hurt Morob, but based

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Speaker 2: them upon how the judges scored it. Round two, or

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Speaker 2: I should say, round three was very close. Round two

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Speaker 2: and round four were very obvious for Morob, and really,

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Speaker 2: you know what I should point out, saying a few

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Speaker 2: strikes away in round one from stealing the fight. Morob

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Speaker 2: didn't grapple for the first two and a half minutes

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Speaker 2: of the fight. He was feeling sewn out, trying to

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Speaker 2: get you know, a fuel for the distance, which allowed

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Speaker 2: Sean to be competitive for the first two and a

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Speaker 2: half minutes. But the moment Mirob initiated a takedown, it

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Speaker 2: changed the entire dynamic of the fight. O'Malley scrambled up

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Speaker 2: from that takedown, but then Mrob landed a right hand,

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Speaker 2: which was probably his biggest punch that he landed the

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Speaker 2: entire fight.

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Speaker 1: So the takedown.

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Speaker 2: Dynamics, the grappling dynamics, just changed the way that this

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Speaker 2: fight is going to go. I should also mention Morob

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Speaker 2: was pressuring O'Malley back for the entire fight. Anytime he

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Speaker 2: got his foot behind the black line, he initiated the takedown.

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Speaker 2: And then anytime Sean tried to step up in the

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Speaker 2: pocket and actually fight back or looked to push Morab back,

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Speaker 2: Morob initiated a reactive takedown. And those were the more

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Speaker 2: vital takedowns, because when Sean was taken down in the

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Speaker 2: middle of the cage, he was not able to get

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Speaker 2: up nearly as easily as when he was taken down

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Speaker 2: near the fence, able to scramble back up to his feed.

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Speaker 2: So I do think given the price adjustment, given how

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Speaker 2: the first fight played out, given the likelihood that Sean

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Speaker 2: could still land a knock down or hurt Morob, have

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Speaker 2: the bigger moments and keep it competitive despite getting taken down,

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Speaker 2: I actually do think there is value on Shawn O'Malley's

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Speaker 2: money line. I would project him closer to about plus

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Speaker 2: one eighty. I made Morab a slight favored in the

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Speaker 2: first fight. I think you can take about ten percent

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Speaker 2: off in the rematch, but I do think the value

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Speaker 2: side is Seawan O'Malley. I would look to bet O'Malley

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Speaker 2: pre fight, and then probably bet Morob live after round

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Speaker 2: one or round two, assuming it's going to be one

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Speaker 2: to one after those first couple rounds, or at least

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Speaker 2: O'Malley can steal one of the first couple of rounds.

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Speaker 2: The alternative way I would consider betting this is O'Malley

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Speaker 2: on the points spread plus five and a half at

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Speaker 2: minus one thirty five. I think he can lose a

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Speaker 2: forty eight to forty seven decision, but I also give

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Speaker 2: him more finishing upside of the pair as well, so

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Speaker 2: O'Malley on the points spread plus five and a half

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Speaker 2: don't love laying the juice there though, and then pre

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Speaker 2: fight money line into a mirob I've bet Billy, I'll

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Speaker 2: have the preview for this one out by Action Network

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Speaker 2: dot Com. I know you don't have as many solidified

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Speaker 2: thoughts on betting this fight, which is why I went

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Speaker 2: ahead and took over the preview. But give me what

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Speaker 2: thoughts you do have on O'Malley versus Morob, whether you're

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Speaker 2: considering live betting this one, and then any betting possibilities

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Speaker 2: that come to mind for you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll start with the live betting angle. If if

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Speaker 1: you ever in any fight get a better price on

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Speaker 1: Morab at any point than you did pre fight, you

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Speaker 1: should probably just live better. Like it's not I'm not

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Speaker 1: confident that'll even happen, but like if you get it, great,

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Speaker 1: like by all means take that, Like you should never

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Speaker 1: look that gift horse in the mouth. The argument I'm

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Speaker 1: hearing for O'Malley is that he was injured going into

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Speaker 1: the last fight, right, But there's two parts to that one,

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Speaker 1: Like who's to say he's not injured with something else? Now,

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Speaker 1: Like he's kind of a big lanky dude. They tend

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Speaker 1: to be less durable, Like we see more injuries in

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Speaker 1: guys with that build than we do guys built like Morob.

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Speaker 1: Just it's just how the sport works for whatever reason.

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Speaker 1: But the other thing is he had a hip surgery

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Speaker 1: less than nine months ago, so I have no idea

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Speaker 1: how long that takes to recover from exactly, but I

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Speaker 1: would imagine three four months at a minimum before you're

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Speaker 1: like really training again. So how much improvement can we

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Speaker 1: bank on seeing from him when he wasn't training at

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Speaker 1: full strength for you know, half of the time since

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Speaker 1: Marob last bought him, and Morob just continues to look

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Speaker 1: better and better in every fight. Like I was blown

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Speaker 1: away at the Normaga madeoff when I thought, stylistically that

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Speaker 1: would be the toughest fight he'd ever have, and Morob

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Speaker 1: just kind of rolled through it without many problems. So

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Speaker 1: that is what is keeping me from betting O'Malley. What

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Speaker 1: is keeping me from betting Morob at the current price?

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Speaker 1: One He says he wants to go out and show

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Speaker 1: his striking. I don't put a lot of faith in that,

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Speaker 1: with how silly Morob is just as a human in general.

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Speaker 1: But like you don't love to hear that, Like, please

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Speaker 1: don't do that, Morob, just go just go grapple. And

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Speaker 1: then the other part of it is you can obviously

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Speaker 1: get a better price on Morob four or five decision

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Speaker 1: morab By decision Like, there's just his early stoppage equity

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Speaker 1: is so low that it's really hard to see any

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Speaker 1: reason to bet anything like that. He doesn't even really

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Speaker 1: attempt submissions. That's the other thing. We think of him

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Speaker 1: as this elite grappler, and he is, but he averages

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Speaker 1: like one submission attempt every three fights, so it's not

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Speaker 1: really something, and sometimes those are scored when they weren't

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Speaker 1: really trying that hard to get a submission too. So

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Speaker 1: I just don't see any reason to bet the money

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Speaker 1: line on Morob. I like the light angles. I like

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Speaker 1: live assuming we get a better price, and O'Malley by

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Speaker 1: Ko is interesting right, like this could be a rematch

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Speaker 1: or a replay of the Aljamin Sterling fight. That wouldn't

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Speaker 1: shock me. I don't see him winning a decision though,

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Speaker 1: especially in New Jersey. I think the judges will be

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Speaker 1: a little bit friends to Morob, because I thought it

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Speaker 1: was some pretty friendly judging towards O'Malley in the first

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Speaker 1: one with that said, I like your point spread angle

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Speaker 1: because around where O'Malley lands three or four good punches

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Speaker 1: and Morob just kind of wrestles him from the top

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Speaker 1: is hard to score. So I can see that angle too,

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Speaker 1: but probably nothing for me pre fight. Might get in

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Speaker 1: on Morob live if such an opportunity presents itself.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, surprised that this rematch is happening. But that said,

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Speaker 2: you know, I should reflect upon the difference in public

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Speaker 2: perception of these two fighters relative to where they were previously.

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Speaker 2: O'Malley was being picked to win the first fight sixty

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Speaker 2: sixty five seventy percent of the time. Marob I feel

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Speaker 2: like as a fighter who the public has fallen in

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Speaker 2: love with, you know, the more he's won, the more

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Speaker 2: he's competed. Kissing O'Malley on the back in the headlock

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Speaker 2: at the end of round two, I should mention, you know,

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Speaker 2: your point regarding the SUBMISSI attempts. Rob's submision attempts really

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Speaker 2: come with fifteen or twenty seconds left in the round.

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Speaker 2: You'll get a guy down, he'll put them in the headlock,

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Speaker 2: and then he'll kind of hold on to the headlock. Maybe,

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Speaker 2: you know, look for a dars, but not really as

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Speaker 2: the round expires, So those submission attempts are coming with

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Speaker 2: ten or fifteen seconds left in the round, basically just

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Speaker 2: to put a stamp on it. But I do think

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Speaker 2: the way the public perception on these two is shifted

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Speaker 2: is really interesting because Morob's a guy been betting on forever,

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Speaker 2: going back to I can't even think of, you know,

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Speaker 2: the guys he was fighting earlier in his career in

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Speaker 2: the division who are no longer even in the UFC anymore.

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Speaker 1: Lopez graand Katona is now back, but he was part

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Speaker 1: of the original Brad Katona run guys like that. There's

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Speaker 1: a former there's a former flyweight.

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Speaker 2: I'm thinking of, very fast.

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Speaker 1: Guy with big power, John Dobson.

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Speaker 2: Yes, John Dobson. I mean I was thinking, like I

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Speaker 2: couldn't think of the fight. Yeah, John Dobson denied like

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Speaker 2: all eighteen takedown attempts in that fight. Morob just kind

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Speaker 2: of held him up the fence like he did against

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Speaker 2: Aldo for the whole fight. So Morob's never or I

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Speaker 2: should say, Morob didn't used to have the most exciting style.

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Speaker 2: He wasn't able to get guys to the ground as

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Speaker 2: consistently as it seems like he is able to now.

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Speaker 2: He was much more fighting against defence, clinching guys up,

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Speaker 2: kneeing them in the back of the legs. He really

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Speaker 2: beat sewn up on the ground. He was getting them

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Speaker 2: down on the ground or getting them up against the

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Speaker 2: fence and then just throwing knees to the thigh, throwing

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Speaker 2: knees to the body. Like he was much more violent

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Speaker 2: against O'Malley and in the clinch than I think he

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Speaker 2: was previously. But I just want to go back to

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Speaker 2: the public perception thing. I feel like now everybody loves

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Speaker 2: Morob and the love for O'Malley has sort of faded away.

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Speaker 2: I bet against O'Malley virtually every fight. I've never come

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Speaker 2: on this podcast and said I'm betting Sean O'Malley. I

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Speaker 2: bet O'Malley when he was fighting in the Apex against

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Speaker 2: guys with no names to knock them out as a

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Speaker 2: minus five hundred favorite. Once he's actually fought and stepped

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Speaker 2: up against real competition, I've basically been betting against O'Malley

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Speaker 2: every fight because I feel like he is typically overvalued

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Speaker 2: and he's picked at too high or percentage by the

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Speaker 2: public predictions. I use to incorporate into my projections. I

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Speaker 2: feel like this fight, he's being picked to win about

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Speaker 2: twenty percent of the time and well below where the

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Speaker 2: market expects him to be. So I find that dynamic

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Speaker 2: and that shift in public perception very interesting. I don't

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Speaker 2: know if it's solely because Marob won the first fight

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Speaker 2: or just hip surgery Sean not able to knock him out.

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Speaker 2: He's sort of lost his star power a little bit. Billy.

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Speaker 2: I want to ask you, though, before we move on

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Speaker 2: from this fight, how have I know you've earned research

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Speaker 2: into this into the past or done research into this

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Speaker 2: in the past. The difference between fighters rematching in title

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Speaker 2: fights versus fighters getting an immediate rematch in a title fight.

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Speaker 2: Don't the champions or don't the fight? I believe the

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Speaker 2: fighter who won the first fight don't they win the

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Speaker 2: second fight at like an eighty percent plus lib.

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Speaker 1: The two that are the most predictive, with like enough

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Speaker 1: of a sample size to actually care about are the

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Speaker 1: first fighter tends to win at a better than market rate,

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Speaker 1: as does the younger fighter, which is partially why I

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Speaker 1: didn't mention this is because that obviously cancels out with

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Speaker 1: O'Malley being four is years younger. I think most of

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Speaker 1: that is based on rematch is way down the line, though,

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Speaker 1: because if you know you're five or six years older

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Speaker 1: than me, and we fight when I'm twenty two and

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Speaker 1: then again when I'm twenty nine or whatever like, then

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Speaker 1: we're on opposite parts of the curve in terms of

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Speaker 1: the prime. When it's an immediate rematch, I would imagine

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Speaker 1: that the age part of it doesn't matter all that much,

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Speaker 1: Like how much I don't. I don't have it that

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Speaker 1: granular where I can break that out. But you know,

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Speaker 1: how much worse did Morob get in the last nine months,

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Speaker 1: Probably not considerably. And even if O'Malley would have gotten

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Speaker 1: better based on his age, missing all that time with

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Speaker 1: an injury probably cancels that out. So I'm not looking

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Speaker 1: too much into those just because the two that I

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Speaker 1: rely on the most more or less cancel out. But also,

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Speaker 1: like I think there's some extenuating circumstance with it being

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Speaker 1: so quick.

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Speaker 2: Last point, I don't think it ultimately matter. But Morob

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Speaker 2: is coming in with a tow injury to this fight.

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Speaker 2: He said he's just gonna go out so off and

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Speaker 2: fight with it. I don't think it ultimately matters for him.

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Speaker 2: The guy is such an animal. But uh yeah, the

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Speaker 2: first fight wasn't particularly exciting watching it back. O'Malley, as

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Speaker 2: I said, wasn't really all that competitive for most of it.

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Speaker 2: He had some big moments which swung rounds in his favor,

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Speaker 2: but really a fight that should not be happening. I'm

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Speaker 2: surprised O'Malley wasn't forced to fight somebody else in the

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Speaker 2: top three. If we're getting a rematch, UFC doesn't want

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Speaker 2: to lose his potential star power. They're just going to

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Speaker 2: go ahead and give him another title shot. I don't

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Speaker 2: think it's necessarily deserved, but that said, I do think

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Speaker 2: he is the value side on the money line. We'll

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Speaker 2: move on to our fight of the night, the woman's

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Speaker 2: bantamleke title match between Juliana Paena, who's coming in as

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Speaker 2: a plus five fifty underdog against Kayla Harrison Payna. The

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Speaker 2: biggest standing champion underdog odds aside from Niko Montagno who

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Speaker 2: lost to Valentina Schevchenko. I believe Montagno was around a

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Speaker 2: plus eight hundred underdog against schevchenkos So Juliana maybe getting

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Speaker 2: a little bit disrespected here. As the current champion fighting

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Speaker 2: Kayla Harrison, who used to compete at one fifty five

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Speaker 2: probably should be competing at one forty five and is

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Speaker 2: forced to cut down to one thirty five because that

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Speaker 2: is the division the UFC has essentially eliminated their woman's

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Speaker 2: featherweight division. Billy, I believe you are taking the cardio

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Speaker 2: angle against Harrison given the weight cut. I kind of

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Speaker 2: like this fight to go all twenty five minutes. I

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Speaker 2: like Payn's durability. If it does end inside the distance,

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Speaker 2: I think it's likely Harrison via submission. I think you

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Speaker 2: leaned more towards Harrison Viako with the ground and pound.

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Speaker 2: But give me your breakdown on this fight, whether you

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Speaker 2: plan on live betting it at some point on Juliana

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Speaker 2: Penna and what pre fight ticket you're going in as well?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, real quick. When it diverged slightly. Nico Montagno won

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Speaker 1: the flyweight title in December one, twenty seventeen. That event

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Speaker 1: also the UFC debut of a young Shan O'Malley, So

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Speaker 1: just to tie everything together here and the Astroan O'Malley

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Speaker 1: was in the Comaine one of Decision where he got

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Speaker 1: three takedowns per UFC stats, which I do not remember

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Speaker 1: him landing three takedowns collectively in his career, but it

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Speaker 1: apparently happened at one point. Back to the topic at hand, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's an interesting fight Payna, and I don't mean this

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Speaker 1: as just respectfully as it's going to sound, but from

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Speaker 1: a skills standpoint, might be the worst UFC champion possibly ever.

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Speaker 1: What she's good at is being like stubborn and endurable

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Speaker 1: and tough, like she's in theory a jiu jitsu based fighter,

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Speaker 1: but she's a brown belt and has been submitted as

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Speaker 1: many times as she's gotten submissions. And her win over

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Speaker 1: Rocky Pennington to win this title pretty controversial split decision.

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Speaker 1: I didn't think she won it the other one outside

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Speaker 1: of just saying it was a fluke where Nunya has

293
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Speaker 1: underestimated her. It was kind of like the Homer Simpson

294
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Speaker 1: strategy where she just led a man to tire herself

295
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Speaker 1: out by beating on her and managed to stick around

296
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Speaker 1: and then come back in the second round. If Penya's

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Speaker 1: going to win, I think she has to do something

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Speaker 1: like that here. Like she's maybe a slightly better technical

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Speaker 1: striker than Kayla Harrison, but that is more than outweighed

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Speaker 1: by the athleticism difference between the two of them, and

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Speaker 1: with Harrison. I am't concerned though, because this is our

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Speaker 1: first five round bantomweight fight and it's her first time

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Speaker 1: making championship wait, which she did. I mean, she was

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Speaker 1: one thirty five on the dot, one of the first

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Speaker 1: people to weigh in. It was a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a weird way in though, because a lot of fighters

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Speaker 1: were right on the dot despite coming in late. And

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Speaker 1: there's a great gift of Mario Bautista floating around where

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00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,720
Speaker 1: he looked very surprised. They said he weighed one hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty five pounds, so I'm not sure if maybe

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Speaker 1: the scale was off a little bit, or the commission

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Speaker 1: was just giving people an extra pound. I don't know. Regardless,

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Speaker 1: it's a big cut for Kayla Harrison. She didn't look

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Speaker 1: great down the stretch in her last fight against Catlyn

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Speaker 1: Vieira to get to this fight, so I think Kayla

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Speaker 1: Harrison is going to win, though, but I'm worried about

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Speaker 1: her late. That gives me Kayla Harrison in the first

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Speaker 1: three rounds that is even money. It was plus one

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Speaker 1: point fifteen when I wrote the article about it, but

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Speaker 1: still that even money. I think that's most of her

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Speaker 1: win condition is going to be that early part of

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Speaker 1: the fight. She could obviously submit Panya she throws her.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little bit interested in Harrison by knockout because

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Speaker 1: she's been pretty aggressive with the ground pound when she

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Speaker 1: gets takedowns. And then the other The angle I'm looking

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Speaker 1: at is either really an openia live which after about

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00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,560
Speaker 1: two rounds could be plus two thousand, or just something

328
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Speaker 1: absurd if Kayla comes out hard or pinion. The decision

329
00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,440
Speaker 1: only market is plus three fifty, which I think is

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Speaker 1: something that you might be a little bit interested in.

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Speaker 1: If you told me this goes all twenty five minutes,

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Speaker 1: I would make this money line a lot closer. So,

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Speaker 1: by that logic, the decision only on Penya. To be clear,

334
00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:26,920
Speaker 1: if you're watching this live, I prefer the live angles.

335
00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:29,320
Speaker 1: But if you're worried about getting down live or unable

336
00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:32,200
Speaker 1: or just annoying to do, which I understand, that's how

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00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:34,440
Speaker 1: I would take the Penia side. And then I think

338
00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:38,600
Speaker 1: you could probably get pretty close to Obviously you can't

339
00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:40,720
Speaker 1: guarantee a profit, I think you're getting pretty close to

340
00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:44,560
Speaker 1: covering both sides if you do Harrison first three rounds

341
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Speaker 1: and then Penya and the decision only market.

342
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Speaker 2: As I said I linked to the GTD here as well,

343
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Speaker 2: eighty percent of women's bantam main events I've gone to

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Speaker 2: a decision. Sixty one percent of the three round fights

345
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Speaker 2: in this division go to decisions. While I make this

346
00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:00,760
Speaker 2: about plus one thirty, you're getting as high as plus

347
00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:03,360
Speaker 2: one seventy five for this fight to go all twenty

348
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Speaker 2: five minutes. I made Harrison by decision plus one ninety

349
00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:08,240
Speaker 2: compared to listed odds of plus two thirty. I also

350
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,040
Speaker 2: do a show a slight edge on Payn's decision prop

351
00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:14,239
Speaker 2: as well, and given the cardiodynamic, I'd rather bet this

352
00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:17,480
Speaker 2: fight GTD, especially at plus one seventy five compared to

353
00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:20,840
Speaker 2: plus two thirty on Harrison, rather than picking one of

354
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Speaker 2: the fighters by decisions, So GTD will passed for me.

355
00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:27,040
Speaker 2: Probably a quarter unit play there. Nothing too substantial, but

356
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:30,760
Speaker 2: have to bet into the odds relative to the divisional

357
00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,520
Speaker 2: average of the ghost to the decision prop. And you know,

358
00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:36,680
Speaker 2: Paya obviously concerns about the submission defense, but I think

359
00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,800
Speaker 2: she is super durable and will fight for your money.

360
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:42,560
Speaker 2: We'll fight to stay alive in this matchup. Move on

361
00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:46,080
Speaker 2: to our favorite underdogs on this card. The fighter you

362
00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:49,920
Speaker 2: just mentioned. My favorite underdog, maybe even my favorite bet

363
00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:53,240
Speaker 2: on the card is Mario Bautista. As high as plus

364
00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,399
Speaker 2: one seventy this morning I saw at Caesar's He's my

365
00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:58,920
Speaker 2: biggest projected edge on this card. I made him plus

366
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,800
Speaker 2: one to eighteen. In this fight against PATCHI Mix, former

367
00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:06,720
Speaker 2: Belatoor champion, engaged to Tatiana Suarez, a very good grappler,

368
00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:08,719
Speaker 2: not because he's engaged to Tatiana as fars, but they

369
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,720
Speaker 2: are going to increase. I would imagine some very good

370
00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:15,919
Speaker 2: grappling babies at some point. Now. Batista I think is

371
00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:17,440
Speaker 2: the better striker the bear, and I also think he

372
00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:21,919
Speaker 2: is much better cardio. When Mix fought Rafion Stats in

373
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:25,480
Speaker 2: Bellatore for the bellatour Grand Prix, my angles in that

374
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:27,760
Speaker 2: fight were to bet stots live because I do not

375
00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:31,600
Speaker 2: think Mix has the best cardio. He can grapple, he's powerful,

376
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,879
Speaker 2: but I do think he fates after round one, and

377
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:37,080
Speaker 2: I think Bautista is going to have a path to

378
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,639
Speaker 2: beating him by decision and to working his way back

379
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 2: into the fight in the second and third round. Mix

380
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,879
Speaker 2: meg it m media title shot if he wins this

381
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:48,800
Speaker 2: matchup this spight. Bautista, not having the biggest name of Batista,

382
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:50,680
Speaker 2: is on a nice winning streak. I believe his last

383
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 2: win came over Jose Al though a bit controversial, also

384
00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:57,600
Speaker 2: didn't fight the most exciting fight stylistically, mostly spent time

385
00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:00,280
Speaker 2: holding out up against the gage like Morob did for

386
00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:02,960
Speaker 2: that matter. But I do think Pachi either needs a

387
00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:06,159
Speaker 2: submission or he needs extensive control time in order to

388
00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,960
Speaker 2: cover his money line. And when this fight otherwise, I

389
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,840
Speaker 2: expect Batista to land more volume and to steal a

390
00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:14,040
Speaker 2: decision down the stretch. So I bet Batista prefight to

391
00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:16,360
Speaker 2: Pulse one twenty five, and I also think you might

392
00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:19,960
Speaker 2: find a better live number after round one. Billy, this

393
00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,720
Speaker 2: is my favorite fight on the card. Aside, it is

394
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:24,360
Speaker 2: my favorite fight of the card. Forget the main event,

395
00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:26,000
Speaker 2: to forget the home made event. My favorite fight of

396
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,159
Speaker 2: the card Pachi mix against Mario Bautista. Any bets for

397
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 2: you here?

398
00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:32,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm really struggling with this one. If this were

399
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:34,560
Speaker 1: a five round fight, which I wish it was like

400
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,679
Speaker 1: a you know, UFC Atlanta main event rather than on

401
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:39,879
Speaker 1: this card, I would one hundred percent be with you

402
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,879
Speaker 1: on Bautista mix. His only career losses I believe are

403
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 1: both five rounds, or he only has the one career loss. Yeah,

404
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,159
Speaker 1: it was a five rounder that Cardio angle. I just

405
00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:50,520
Speaker 1: I don't worry quite as much with one hundred and

406
00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:53,000
Speaker 1: thirty five pounder in a three round fight, Like, you

407
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 1: gotta be real bad Cardio wise for that to be

408
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 1: an issue. Give him the weight class. With that said,

409
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,439
Speaker 1: Bautista could do the Jose Aldo fight here, Jose sorry,

410
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,920
Speaker 1: the Jose Aldo fight here, and that's probably his best

411
00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,760
Speaker 1: pass to victory. So while I'm excited and intrigued by it,

412
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,440
Speaker 1: like there's there's a very high chance this ends up

413
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,879
Speaker 1: a very frustrating fight, which would be good for Mario Bautista.

414
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 1: I like how much more dynamic mixes, and if he

415
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 1: gets we're seeing the price come down a little bit.

416
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 1: I'm very interested in him, probably more interested in him

417
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 1: for DFS than betting, just because if he does win,

418
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:29,040
Speaker 1: as you pointed out, it's going to be a lot

419
00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 1: of takedowns or a finish where Bautista could easily win

420
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,920
Speaker 1: an extremely boring fight here and we wouldn't be surprised.

421
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,400
Speaker 1: So no bet for me now, But it is one

422
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,199
Speaker 1: of my favorite fights, and yeah, Bautista live if that

423
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 1: line blows out. I don't have a problem with that.

424
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 1: It makes a lot of sense. I'm just not sure

425
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,399
Speaker 1: that we'll necessarily get a better line without him getting

426
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:49,400
Speaker 1: finished in the process.

427
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,360
Speaker 2: One consensus underdog that we have on this card, Mark

428
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 2: Chowinsky against Mark markel Madero's it's actually Choyinsky. I was

429
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 2: watching his last regional fight and it kept saying Chotsky,

430
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:00,840
Speaker 2: and it was like, that looks like it should be

431
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 2: not pronounced Choyinsky, But I'm gonna say Choyinsky because that's

432
00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 2: what the fight announcers were saying. Markel Madero is too

433
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,199
Speaker 2: sick to fight. Last week he put on Instagram that

434
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 2: he had to withdraw from his fight because he was sick.

435
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,919
Speaker 2: Now he's flying cross country, He's had to cut weight twice,

436
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,159
Speaker 2: and he was the last fighter to get to the

437
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:22,120
Speaker 2: scales on front, which I would say that factor alone

438
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 2: probably pretty concerning, considering he had to pull out of

439
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:29,639
Speaker 2: his fight last week again, flying cross country, completely changing venues,

440
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 2: that is quite a toll to have on your body.

441
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 2: Now he is getting a short noticed opponent and Mark Choynsky.

442
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 2: But Choinsky had a fight booked for next week, so

443
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:40,359
Speaker 2: I would imagine he was in camp prepping for that fight.

444
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 2: Has faced pretty low level competition fighting in the Anthony

445
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 2: Pettis FC regional promotion, but he does train with the

446
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 2: Pettis bros. In that gym, also trains with Rayfaan Stotts.

447
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 2: Boy just mentioned it is it is a reasonably good

448
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 2: end around gym.

449
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, go ahead, see right out there too, another

450
00:21:57,640 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 1: good around that size guy.

451
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think you know he's training with

452
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:05,120
Speaker 2: reasonable guys despite the fact that he's fought pretty low

453
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 2: level competition. And this guy can wrestle. He was a

454
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:11,159
Speaker 2: former three time D three All American wrestler. He throws

455
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 2: hard on the feed. He has very bad striking defense,

456
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 2: so I do worry about him getting clipped, but he's

457
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 2: never been KOed, has shown good durability. I do think

458
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 2: he's going to get hit hard by Baderos, but I

459
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 2: like the way he checks leg kicks. So if he

460
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,359
Speaker 2: can check Madero's leg kicks and then get on top,

461
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 2: initiates some takedowns, get to the back control from there,

462
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,920
Speaker 2: I do think Choinski has all of the grappling upside

463
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:33,879
Speaker 2: at plus one seventy. I also like this fight to

464
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 2: go to a decision. I projected that line at about

465
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,639
Speaker 2: minus one fifty five, so choins Sky Maderos goes to

466
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,640
Speaker 2: decision and also choint Sky on the money line at

467
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 2: plus one seventy. Sorry, I projected the GTV line at

468
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,959
Speaker 2: minus one ninety. You can bet it at minus one

469
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 2: fifty five. And then lastly, obviously correlated value on choint

470
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 2: Sky to win by decision at plus for forty im

471
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:57,639
Speaker 2: that line plus three or five. So, Billy, are you

472
00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 2: just playing Choyinsky on the money line here? And how

473
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 2: did you evaluate this one? Break down the tape.

474
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you've hit pretty much everything. I was

475
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,680
Speaker 1: gonna say the sickness was the big factor that first

476
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 1: got me into that, But then you see the guys

477
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 1: a D three wrestler. The only thing you didn't mention,

478
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 1: I think is that Maderos was taken down twice and

479
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 1: controlled for seven and a half minutes by Austin Hubbard

480
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,679
Speaker 1: in his last fight, and Troynsky is at the very

481
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: least a much better wrestler than that. Like, I don't know,

482
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 1: it's hard to find a ton of tape on him,

483
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 1: and even the tape you find it's fighting guys that

484
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 1: doesn't really tell you too much. I would be very

485
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 1: confident in saying that if we put some singlets and

486
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 1: earguards on Austin Hubbard and Mark Troynsky, the Toytski would

487
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 1: come out on top. So we've got that going for us. Yeah,

488
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:42,120
Speaker 1: just a straight up money line. I wish I would

489
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 1: have got it sooner because he was north of two

490
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 1: to one earlier in the week. But then this is

491
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 1: another one where I believe I have toints Ski and

492
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: one hundred percent of my DFS lineups this week. Like,

493
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 1: it's really hard to find cheap guys, and I'm absolutely

494
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 1: love with them there. So I'd probably come up with

495
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,199
Speaker 1: some other angles if I weren't so exposed to him

496
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:01,680
Speaker 1: in a different way. It's gonna suck, you know if,

497
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 1: as you pointed out, that striking defense fails him. But

498
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 1: it just I think he's a great play with the

499
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:11,239
Speaker 1: wrestling and yeah, I'm really into this one. You hit

500
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 1: all the bases.

501
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 2: Let's get into Billy's Underdog plays for this week, and

502
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 2: you can go yard all season long with Underdog's Pick

503
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,120
Speaker 2: Them game. Underdog is one of the leading sports apps

504
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Speaker 2: and you can play now in your state, millions of

505
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:22,959
Speaker 2: fans have already won billions making picks on Underdog will

506
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 2: be next to play. All I have to do is

507
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 2: down with the app and choose whether a player will

508
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 2: go higher or lower on one of their stats. You

509
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 2: can choose from things like home run, strikeouts, total bases,

510
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Speaker 2: and so much more. Once your picks feel good, you

511
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 2: can play with as little as one dollar, and if

512
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 2: you get everything right, you can win up to one

513
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 2: thousand times your money. Since we're talking UFC today, Billy,

514
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 2: what are you cooking up for underdog for hires and

515
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 2: lowers this weekend?

516
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking at a fight that we are both

517
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,439
Speaker 1: in consensus on I'm going to talk about, and that

518
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:52,640
Speaker 1: is the Sentae Luca versus Kevin Holland. I want Holland

519
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 1: lower than forty six point five significant strikes. The Santa

520
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 1: Luka has been knocked out badly a couple of times here.

521
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 1: I don't think he could take forty seven significant strikes

522
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 1: and remain conscious. So that one makes it pretty easy,

523
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 1: because you know, even if Holland is landing a bunch

524
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 1: of strikes, I don't think he gets to that number.

525
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: And then on the flip side also Vicente Luke lower

526
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,640
Speaker 1: than thirty eight point five significant strikes hard to land,

527
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,640
Speaker 1: significant strikes of your own if you are unconscious, which

528
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:19,199
Speaker 1: is what I think is going to happen in this

529
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 1: fight barely shortly love that we can do this from Underdog,

530
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 1: where we take both sides of the same fight. There's

531
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 1: some really fun ways to build around that. That is

532
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,160
Speaker 1: the one I'm looking at this week. You can join

533
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 1: me by downloading the Underdog app and signing up with

534
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537
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538
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539
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Speaker 1: in Massachusetts and Arizona, and president in a state where

540
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 1: Underdog Fantasy operates. Terms apply void and Colorado. Concern with

541
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,879
Speaker 1: your play called one eight hundred Gambler or visit NCP

542
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Speaker 1: Gambling dot Org, in Arizona called one eight hundred Next

543
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Speaker 1: Step or texts next step to five three three four two,

544
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Speaker 1: and in New York called the twenty four seven Hopeline

545
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Speaker 1: at one eight seven seven Hope and Why or text

546
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 1: Hope and Why, And Sean, we're getting into the props.

547
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 1: I mentioned the first fight that we're in agreement on.

548
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 1: Tell me why you like Kevin Holland by knockout. Yeah.

549
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:27,160
Speaker 2: Luka's loss against Faquing Buckley remains extremely concerning and very awkward.

550
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 2: Now we've heard in the past about him having a

551
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 2: brain believe doctors telling him to stop fighting, and then

552
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:34,479
Speaker 2: in that Buckley fight he just kind of turtled up

553
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:38,119
Speaker 2: and what the fight end, came back up won. You know,

554
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 2: his next fight, but primarily through grappling, really didn't spend

555
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 2: much time at distance. So you know, to your point

556
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 2: about playing the lower on underdog on Luca's significant strikes,

557
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 2: if he's going to win here, it's probably going to

558
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,919
Speaker 2: be through grappling, either submitting Kevin Holland or in some

559
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,160
Speaker 2: way getting on top of Holland and holding him down.

560
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 2: We've seen Luke in the past out grapple guys. That said,

561
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 2: we've also discussed Billy the difference between middleweight Calvin Holland

562
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 2: and welter weight Kevin Holland, and this is welterweight Kevin

563
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 2: Holland here four or four inches taller six inchre each advantage.

564
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 2: One of the most efficient significant strikers in the history

565
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 2: of this promotion, It's conceivable that Luke grapples. I think

566
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 2: Collin's defensive grappling tends to get underrated, not his defensive wrestling,

567
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 2: which does get underrated at one hundred and seventy pounds,

568
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 2: but his overall defense of jiu jitsu. I think he's

569
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 2: very competent in terms of his jiu jitsu abilities.

570
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:29,640
Speaker 1: I expect him.

571
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 2: If Luke does land to take down, I expect Holland

572
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 2: to scramble back to his feet, and I do think

573
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 2: within a matter of forty significant strikes or less, Kevin

574
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 2: Holland would knock out for Sente Luka at some point.

575
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think just Luke could be completely washed

576
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 2: at this point. Obviously came back and won his last fight,

577
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 2: but really since that knockout loss against Jeff Neil, I

578
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 2: don't think he's been the same fighter, and I think

579
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 2: he had the brain bleed issue even before that. So

580
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 2: I projected Holland's k low line at about plus one fifty.

581
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 2: I would bet that down to plus one sixty. And

582
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 2: I also like the fight to end inside the distance

583
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,679
Speaker 2: as well, just I put more of that equity on Howland.

584
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 2: I think Luk would probably win more of a control

585
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 2: based wrestling decision if he does win. Even with that,

586
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,880
Speaker 2: I don't think he's landing many significant strikes. So any

587
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:18,919
Speaker 2: other thoughts that you had on the fight, aside from

588
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:19,919
Speaker 2: the ones that you're to give.

589
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 1: Up, Yeah, I'm less worried, I think than the grappling

590
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 1: even than you are. And here's why Luke has seven

591
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 1: submissions between the UFC and The Ultimate Fighter. Nf' going

592
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,959
Speaker 1: to count that all seven of those are either anacondo

593
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,919
Speaker 1: or dars chokes, which are effectively the same choke. A

594
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 1: bunch of jiu jitsu people are gonna yell at me

595
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 1: for saying that it's the same choke. It's just a

596
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 1: different arm that goes in first. Almost all of those

597
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 1: are because his opponent shot, which is like the only

598
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 1: position you can do those from. Again, that's not one

599
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 1: hundred percent ture. Don't yell at me jiu jitsu nerds,

600
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 1: but that is a thing. Kevin Allen's not gonna shoot

601
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 1: on Vicente Luke. Why would he do that? He knows

602
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: better than that. So even the win against Timba Grimbo.

603
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 1: Grimbo took like a bad shot because Luke hit him,

604
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 1: which put him in position to get anaconda choke. Kevin

605
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 1: Holland's not gonna like Kevin Holland'll occasionally take you down

606
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 1: and then realize his mistake and let you up, even

607
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 1: though he should win the fight from there, So that

608
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 1: makes me feel a little bit better than that. In

609
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 1: addition to the Kevin Holland ko, I was like the

610
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 1: under one and a half at plus one eight. The

611
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 1: only way I see, honestly, the only way I see

612
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 1: Luk winning it is if Kevin Holland gets clipped and

613
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 1: then kind of falls into a submission like that, which

614
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 1: I think is more likely early than late. I don't

615
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 1: think Luk has the wrestling to really control him to

616
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 1: a decision. So my logic there, if we get a

617
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 1: Holland knockout in the first half of the fight, we

618
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,959
Speaker 1: win both bets. Something else happens early, we still make

619
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 1: a profit on both. I have the full preview up

620
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: on Action network dot Com for this fight, where I

621
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 1: went a little bit more in depth on that, but

622
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 1: we're we're seeing it pretty much the same way.

623
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was misremembering when the RDA fight for Luke

624
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 2: took place. That was before OJAQM. Buckley fight, his only fight,

625
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 2: as you said, since the Buckley knockout, the very aw

626
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 2: Buckley finish. He fought them bagrimbo for fifty five seconds.

627
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 2: Everybody bet Luka in that fight. At least it seemed

628
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 2: like everybody's sharp bet lukea in that fight, big plus money.

629
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 2: He ended up getting the finished. But that fight did

630
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 2: not play out at all. We did not really see

631
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 2: him get hit. Don't really know still how he's going

632
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 2: to respond to actually taking damage. So I think holling

633
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 2: Ko might be quick and might look like free money

634
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 2: this week, and it's very possible. I'm not saying it's guaranteed,

635
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 2: but if that does hit, I think it might be

636
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 2: quick and it might look free. Let's move on to

637
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 2: another fight that I like quite a bit from a

638
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 2: proper perspective. That's Sergei Spibach, who's minus one thirty against

639
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 2: Waldo Courteza Costa plus one ten. I think speedbacks move

640
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 2: closer to minus one forty this morning. I do kind

641
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 2: of like him on the money line. I projected him

642
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 2: closer to minus one fifty, but I also like this fight.

643
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 2: To end inside the distance, and I prefer these speedback

644
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 2: side of things if it is going to end inside

645
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:54,959
Speaker 2: the distance. Waldough did look bigger on the scales, He's

646
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 2: about fifteen pounds heavier, but I still think Speedback is

647
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 2: the more natural heavyweight of the two. Waldo just seems

648
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 2: like a blown up guy in general. Former baseball player Spevac,

649
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 2: you know, has much more of a decorated grappling history

650
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 2: and Waldo. The one time he faced a grappler in

651
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 2: the UC was Marcos Ragiri. Delima basically got stuck on

652
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 2: his back for the entire fight. He was able to

653
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 2: put Rebella's to Spain on his back for the entire fight,

654
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 2: meaning Waldo, But when he's the one actually getting grappled,

655
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 2: I really don't think he's able to offer any resistance.

656
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 2: He's also not training at a particularly prestigious gym where

657
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 2: I think he's likely to make improvements to that part

658
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 2: of his game. So heavyweights in general, I feel like

659
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 2: ten to.

660
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 1: Develop a little bit slower.

661
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 2: I don't think Waldo has the defensive grappling to stop

662
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 2: Sergey from getting the positions he wants to. As I

663
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 2: said Sergei on the money Line, at about minus one forty,

664
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 2: but I make his subprop about two to one. You

665
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 2: can bet that at plus three sixty, and I make

666
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 2: his inside the distance line about plus one thirteen. You

667
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 2: can bet that at plus one eighty. So spevac inside

668
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 2: the distance maybe the money line as well. Billy, what

669
00:31:57,840 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 2: are your thoughts on this fight?

670
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, took be back straight up. I've mentioned it in

671
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 1: the past that there's almost two different heavyweight divisions where

672
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 1: there's like seven or eight guys who are legitimately that

673
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 1: size and have UFC level skills, and then there's the

674
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 1: rest of the guys that just fill cards or let

675
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 1: Tom Aspotball knock them out in twelve seconds or whatever.

676
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: And Saws a boy has exclusively fought in that latter group.

677
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 1: Like if you look at the name of his win,

678
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 1: it's hilarious something the guy Jared Vandera, Chase Sherman, Lucas Preski,

679
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 1: eighty year old Andre Rolovski, Rebellas Daspanna, the taekwondo fighter

680
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 1: who went one and whatever in the UFC, and then

681
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 1: Ryan Span who is a light heavyweight coming up and

682
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 1: probably shouldn't have done that. Are the list of his

683
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: wins Spivak's resume isn't as great in terms of wins

684
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 1: and losses, but he's fought sierro Ghn, Marcine Taibera, Gileton Almeida,

685
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 1: choked out Derek Lewis, like he's fought lost to Tom Aspaaal,

686
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 1: Like he's fought all the top ranked UFC heavyweights and

687
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 1: been okay any somehow three years younger because he didn't

688
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 1: spend the early part of his athletic career as a

689
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: single a baseball player. So yeah, I can't believe these

690
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 1: lines are this close. I took minus one thirty five

691
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 1: on Spivack. I'm with you anything up to about minus

692
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 1: one fifty or so. I like the sub angle, but like,

693
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 1: would it shock you if he just knocked him out

694
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 1: pretty fast? Because cortez A Costa throws a lot of punches,

695
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 1: but he's not like a technical striker, like he just

696
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 1: does volume. So also he lost on Darrera Loski. I

697
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 1: don't care what the official record says. That's that's Those

698
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 1: are the end of my thoughts on Salso, boy shout

699
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 1: out to him for being able to build a six

700
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 1: to one UFC record without actually being that great at fighting.

701
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 1: But here we are.

702
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 2: Another fight on the car that you're targeting from a

703
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 2: proper respective before I get to my final one. Juice

704
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 2: sang you against Jackisarahge. You've got an alternative nickname that

705
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 2: you want to give to juiceing you, but you've also

706
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 2: got a way that you want to bet on this agun.

707
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 1: Yeah. His official nickname is Zombie Junior because he trains

708
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 1: with the Korean Zombie, which is awesome. But I think

709
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 1: his nickname should be the Bear, and we just put

710
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: that in front of his name so then he can

711
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 1: be Paul Craig Junior. Let you guys say that one

712
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 1: out loud and figure out how we get there. I

713
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 1: like you in rounds one or two in minus one

714
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 1: twenty at Jeka Sarah Gui Saragi. I've heard it said

715
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 1: both ways. Jeka. I will say the Zombie Junior nickname

716
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 1: is appropriate because I watched some tape on you and

717
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 1: he just marches forward throwing bombs. His last fight he

718
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,480
Speaker 1: won in like seventy five seconds, but managed to get

719
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 1: himself rocked a couple times in there. But much like

720
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 1: the original Korean Zombie, like all these Korean fighters just

721
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 1: seem to have granite chins, heavy hands, and like zero

722
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:34,839
Speaker 1: interest in striking defense, which is also kind of how

723
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: Saraki fights, but much worse. Athlete less durability and less power.

724
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 1: These guys are just gonna trade. They're just gonna throw

725
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 1: real hard. I think you gets it done. He's a

726
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 1: huge favorite, and obviously if we expect to finish, it's

727
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:50,799
Speaker 1: likely to happen sooner rather than later. So I like that.

728
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,479
Speaker 1: I like you by knockout. The only reason I didn't

729
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:55,799
Speaker 1: take you by knockout and this is hilarious to talk

730
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 1: about grammatically because it seems like I'm saying Sean Zillo

731
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 1: is fighting tomorrow and newer. But the only reason I

732
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 1: didn't take you by knockout is that Sergi has struggled

733
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 1: on the ground so much that it wouldn't shock me

734
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 1: to see a club and sab or, you know, get

735
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:10,919
Speaker 1: him against the fence and just kind of throw him down.

736
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 1: I'm actually pretty high on you as a prospect, very athletic.

737
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 1: Would like to see him ever defend strikes, but it worst,

738
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 1: he'll be like a fun guy to have around, even

739
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 1: if he doesn't challenge the top of the rankings.

740
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:24,320
Speaker 2: You're high and me as a prospect that's very nicey

741
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 2: to stay a billy. Let's talk about one more fight

742
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 2: from a proper perspective. Arianna da Silva used to be

743
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 2: Arianalypsky going against Wayang Kong. You'll find Ariana listed as

744
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 2: Ariannalypsky in some places Ariana da Silva and others same

745
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 2: fighter just had a name change. But she did miss

746
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:42,319
Speaker 2: weight by six pounds on Friday. We did not have

747
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 2: official confirmation yet that this fight will continue to go on.

748
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 2: I'd imagine Wayang Kong will happily accept the fight if

749
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 2: you're going to come in your face painted like the Joker.

750
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,720
Speaker 2: You can't cancel a fight over a six pounds weight miss.

751
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 2: But this this division does have a decision rate on

752
00:35:57,120 --> 00:36:00,879
Speaker 2: average of sixty eight percent across three round fight. You're

753
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 2: getting decent odds here, I think right around to pick

754
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 2: them for this fight to go to decision. Lipsky to me,

755
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,320
Speaker 2: she didn't get finished on the feed by Priscilla Catchuera.

756
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,959
Speaker 2: She ate some big punches, but generally I do find

757
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 2: she's getting finished when she's getting out grappled by opponents

758
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 2: via ground and pound. You see a lot of knockouts

759
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 2: on her record. Typically those are tkos that are coming

760
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 2: with her back flat on the mat. I think these

761
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 2: two probably strike it out for fifteen minutes unless Lipski

762
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 2: is the one who's able to land takedown. She does

763
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 2: have some good offensive submission skills of her own, she

764
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:34,320
Speaker 2: just tends to get outworked when she's the one stuck

765
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:38,240
Speaker 2: on bottom. So GTD beteen Ariana, Dusilva and Kong Wang

766
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 2: at about minus one point fifteen Indie Woman's flyweight division

767
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 2: compared as I said, to a divisional average of about

768
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 2: sixty eight percent of minus two twelve and plied. These

769
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 2: are both violent fighters. Will not be surprised if this

770
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,280
Speaker 2: one ends via finished. Just have to bet this line

771
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:55,839
Speaker 2: compared to the divisional average, which is more than ten

772
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 2: percent above where the line is set. Billy, Any thoughts

773
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 2: on DaSilva again Wynkong.

774
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, until the weight miss, I thought this was going

775
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,760
Speaker 1: to be a closer fight than the betting line implies.

776
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 1: But six pounds is a lot, especially with how generous

777
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:12,359
Speaker 1: the scale seemed to beat other fighters, because she might

778
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 1: have actually missed by seven or eight based on everybody

779
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:18,240
Speaker 1: else's reactions. So I'm staying away from it, and partially

780
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 1: because I'm not entirely sure this fight still happens, So

781
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 1: I like your angle. I almost bet Lipski da Silva

782
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 1: whatever we're calling her early in the week, just because

783
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 1: it did seem like an outsized line. I don't think

784
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 1: wyn Kong is as good as she is fun if

785
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:35,879
Speaker 1: that makes sense, Like she does her whole joker thing.

786
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 1: We all got excited because she knocked out Victoria Leonardo

787
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:41,879
Speaker 1: in the first round of her UFC debut, But that's

788
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 1: Victoria Leonardo who went I don't know that one and

789
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 1: four in the promotion and got finished by everybody, So

790
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 1: don't you know, don't put too much faith in that.

791
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 1: I think this will actually be a closer fight than

792
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:57,400
Speaker 1: the money line implies if Lipski isn't totally drained or

793
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 1: the fight gets canceled or didn't train at all, why

794
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:02,320
Speaker 1: she's overweight. There's just to my factors.

795
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:04,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was just a memorable knockout, like the sound

796
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,720
Speaker 2: physically of the impact, it looked like a civilian fighting

797
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:10,399
Speaker 2: and professional fighter, like that's that's legitimately what.

798
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 1: It will look like. Yeah, because it actually was.

799
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 2: Yes, uh, but yeah, it was a memorable knockout in

800
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 2: terms of the impact. I think Kongong has three knockouts

801
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,880
Speaker 2: and eighteen career fights like this is still the woman's

802
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:25,839
Speaker 2: flyweight division. Like you, you have to recognize that the

803
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:29,439
Speaker 2: power and the relative power of these fighters really only

804
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 2: produces finishes. Even if you're gonna say Kong is a

805
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 2: substantial finisher relative to the rest of the division, what

806
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,279
Speaker 2: is she still like forty likely to finish a fight

807
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 2: forty five percent likely? So getting the GTD at minus

808
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 2: one fifteen I think is a fair price. We have

809
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:48,560
Speaker 2: two bets on one fight in terms of our best

810
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 2: bets for this weekend's card. I believe the outcomes are

811
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:54,919
Speaker 2: very correlated to one another as well. I'm sure Billy

812
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 2: would agree with that too. That's the Joe Pifer Kelvin

813
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 2: Gastolin fight. I like the fight go to decision. Billy

814
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 2: is taking a bit riskier of a spot on Gaslum

815
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 2: on the money line. I'll just say my piece first,

816
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 2: this divisional average, or I should say this, this division

817
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 2: goes to this division goes to decision on forty five

818
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:17,840
Speaker 2: percent clip on average. However, given the durability of both fighters,

819
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 2: I have this one at about fifty seven percent or

820
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 2: minus one thirty. I would bet this up to minus

821
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 2: one twenty you can get plus money currently on the

822
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:28,400
Speaker 2: to reach a decision. I think most of it just

823
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 2: comes down to does Joe Pifer submit Calvin Gaslim or not,

824
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 2: because I think Gostlm is extremely durable. I think Piper

825
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 2: is extremely durable, but Pifer is bigger than Gaslm. If

826
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 2: he's able to get on top and submit him, I

827
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 2: think that's the likeliest way that this one ends. Inside

828
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:46,800
Speaker 2: the distance. Gaslum has been submitted three times, but typically

829
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 2: by better grapplers than what I perceive. Pypher asked hyperbaried

830
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 2: Anderson round one. I think his cardio does tend to

831
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:55,240
Speaker 2: slip a little bit in rounds two. In round three

832
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 2: obviously lost that five round decision to Jack Ermanson that

833
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 2: we were both on. I think he is enough card

834
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 2: to sustain for fifteen minutes, but I think Gaslin has

835
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 2: a path to winning this fight in rounds two in

836
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 2: rounds three, So pre fight goes the decision for me,

837
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 2: and then I'll be targeting Gaslum live after round one.

838
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 2: Billy's gonna have a pre fight bet on Gaslam. Tell

839
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 2: me what you saw in this matchup, Billy, and I'd

840
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:18,439
Speaker 2: imagine you were looking for a live number after round

841
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:18,839
Speaker 2: one as well.

842
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I should be clear that I moved this to

843
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:23,879
Speaker 1: my best bet just so we could both talk about

844
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:25,719
Speaker 1: the same fight. If I had a gun into my head,

845
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:27,959
Speaker 1: I think d Troinsky would probably be my actual best

846
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,359
Speaker 1: bet on the card, although by the time you listen

847
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:32,319
Speaker 1: to this, the line might have dropped enough that that's

848
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 1: not true. But I digress. Yeah, I don't understand Gasolam

849
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 1: is a three to one underdog here. He just fought

850
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 1: much much better competition than Joe Pifer. Joe Pifer's best

851
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 1: attribute is his one punched knockout power, and like scientists

852
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 1: are still debating if it's even possible for Kelvin Gaslam

853
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 1: to be knocked out, because it's never happened. The only

854
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 1: person ever to drop him was like a prime Israel

855
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 1: outa Sonya who is just you know, mauling people, and

856
00:40:57,120 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 1: Gastolam made it to the end through five rounds of

857
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 1: getting stro by Israel at Asnia. I don't see Joe

858
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 1: Pifer putt him away early, and if Joe Plifer tries

859
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 1: to put him away early, Joe Pifer will be very tired.

860
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 1: Not a guy with great cardio it's I wish this

861
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 1: fight had happened in Mexico City, where're supposed to because

862
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 1: Pifer would have been cooked after like six minutes in

863
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 1: that one. Here at you know, normal altitude, I'm not

864
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 1: as worried about that, But yeah, love Calvin gaslom at

865
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 1: three to one. Underdog think he dominates the latter portion

866
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 1: of this fight. I'm not sure it's enough if he

867
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 1: loses the early round to like come back and pick

868
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:35,719
Speaker 1: over on the decision. But yeah, also Calvin gaslam live.

869
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 1: If he does lose that first round, we could get

870
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:40,319
Speaker 1: five or six to one, So that's great bad as

871
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:41,239
Speaker 1: well a fighter.

872
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 2: We're goo a bet last week who got rebooked for

873
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:47,920
Speaker 2: this week. Alexander Gustafson is fighting Kaitlin Chaos Williams. You

874
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 2: like Williams here considering the stylistic matchup. You mentioned some

875
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 2: things last week about gustavson ceiling and the type of

876
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 2: fighter he might have issued with. We both like gust

877
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 2: of Sin a lot in the Apex, just because that

878
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:01,840
Speaker 2: does lend itself his fighting style. Now fighting in a

879
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 2: bigger cage against the longer, very powerful opponent who can

880
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:08,960
Speaker 2: probably deny the takedowns or at least get himself out

881
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 2: of the clinch with pure strength. Do you think Williams

882
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:13,440
Speaker 2: is probably the side of this fight, or at least

883
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 2: you would not be betting on Gusts at dog outs correct.

884
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned that one. I've gone back

885
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 1: and forth. I said a couple days ago when we

886
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 1: were talking that I was confident in Chaos. The only

887
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 1: concern I have is it Gustafson's style is so specific

888
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:30,400
Speaker 1: to him, Like there's not a lot of greco or

889
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:33,840
Speaker 1: judo people in MMA these days that that's someone I

890
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:36,800
Speaker 1: would want a full camp to prepare for. And Williams

891
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 1: has had like three or four different opponents on two

892
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 1: different events by the time we're getting to this one,

893
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 1: so it's not like he was training specifically for Gustafson.

894
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 1: Where I have you Gustafson as the guy. He's gonna

895
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 1: do the same thing no matter who he's fighting, He's

896
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:50,880
Speaker 1: gonna throw really hard. If it doesn't knock you out,

897
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:54,279
Speaker 1: hopefully get a clinching at a takedown. So that is,

898
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 1: at least at the time, keeping me away from chaos.

899
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:59,720
Speaker 1: I do think it's about about the worst matchup style

900
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 1: of Gospison, though Love this one for DFS because William

901
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 1: struggles when he gets scrappled. Both guys hit really hard.

902
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 1: I think it's a bad stylistic match out. Like I

903
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:12,399
Speaker 1: think we're gonna get a lot of DFS points from

904
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:14,920
Speaker 1: the winner of this one. I'm just not quite confident

905
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:16,400
Speaker 1: enough in who the winner is going to be to

906
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:17,279
Speaker 1: pick a side on it.

907
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:19,399
Speaker 2: One other fight, I want to mention the Flyway bout

908
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 2: between Bruno Silva and Josh Fan. I do think this

909
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:23,880
Speaker 2: money line is getting a little bit wide. Josh Fan

910
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,400
Speaker 2: is much younger. I'd expect him to take over the

911
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:28,880
Speaker 2: fight in the second and third rounds. But Bruno Silva

912
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:32,800
Speaker 2: is a very well rounded, talented fighter, and he's coming

913
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:35,239
Speaker 2: off of a loss against Menel Coop where he was

914
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 2: obviously outclassed, but he did put his foot on the

915
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:41,279
Speaker 2: gas pedal and put himself in danger trying to get

916
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:43,719
Speaker 2: anything and trying to finish that fight. It's a bunch

917
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 2: of nice wins in the UFC. I believe he started

918
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 2: out with a three fight losing streak and then ended

919
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 2: up rallying back with a four fight winning streak. Obviously,

920
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 2: that lost the Cop was expected. He was also a

921
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:57,239
Speaker 2: very big dog in that fight, but I think he's

922
00:43:57,280 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 2: going to have opportunities to hit Josh Fan, who is

923
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 2: very hit able and a very good offensive fighter, but

924
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 2: I think leaves himself open defensively. And also I think

925
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 2: Silva's gonna have a chance to potentially finish this fight

926
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:10,839
Speaker 2: via submission in round one if he's able to get

927
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:12,879
Speaker 2: the grappling going at all. Big age gap, as I said,

928
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:15,279
Speaker 2: between these two, Van should take over in the second

929
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:18,359
Speaker 2: and third rounds. I probably like Van to win by

930
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 2: round two or round three knockout, but the money line

931
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:24,799
Speaker 2: to me is quite wide. Considering Silva's skill set, I

932
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:27,319
Speaker 2: feel like he's being viewed as a guy who's completely washed,

933
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:30,320
Speaker 2: when in fact I think he's still a very skulled.

934
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:30,840
Speaker 1: And dangerous fighter.

935
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:32,880
Speaker 2: Do you have any thoughts on that fight, Billy, than

936
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:34,719
Speaker 2: any of the thoughts on any other fights before we

937
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 2: get out of here.

938
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 1: I do. I really like that read. I just think

939
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 1: I would take the like was it plus seven to

940
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:42,480
Speaker 1: fifty plus eight hundred or so on Silva to get

941
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:45,239
Speaker 1: a finish. It just seems if he's gonna win, I

942
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,920
Speaker 1: think that should be a bigger percentage. Josh Van throws

943
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 1: with so much volume that you almost feel like any

944
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:52,840
Speaker 1: round that goes to the judges should just automatically go

945
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 1: to him because he's gonna hit you. Like, I think

946
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:57,840
Speaker 1: he's landing close to nine significant strikes per minute in

947
00:44:57,880 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 1: the UFC, which is just insane.

948
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 2: Sela I landed on fifty four percent, so he's attempting

949
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:06,440
Speaker 2: like sixteen strikes a minute. That's great, fifteen and a half,

950
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 2: it's crazy.

951
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:09,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like every four seconds he's trying to hit you.

952
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 1: With Bruno Selva averages three point five four. So if

953
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 1: he's not getting a finish, you know, you can also

954
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:17,560
Speaker 1: go finish only money line. I don't know what that is,

955
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:20,080
Speaker 1: but I like to read overall because Bruno Slova has

956
00:45:20,160 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 1: huge power and Josh Van got knocked out by Charles Johnson,

957
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:25,920
Speaker 1: so like I see it, but I just worry about judging.

958
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they're the same size as well, just eleven

959
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:31,239
Speaker 2: year age gap obviously concerning I think Van round two,

960
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:34,160
Speaker 2: round three probably had that one plays out Van live

961
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: after round one could be a good spot as well

962
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:39,400
Speaker 2: if that money line moves in. But that'll do it

963
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:41,359
Speaker 2: for a UFC betting preview. You can find more UFC

964
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:44,799
Speaker 2: betting content for both Billy and myself on Actionnework dot com.

965
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 2: And remember, if you like to instantly tail some of

966
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:48,880
Speaker 2: the bets that we discussed on today's show, looked with

967
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:52,080
Speaker 2: quipsick links both in the podcast and the video descriptions,

968
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 2: or visit actionnetwork dot com slash bet now. Don't forget

969
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 2: to download the free award winning Action Network Gap and

970
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 2: sign up for Action pro formediate access to expert picks

971
00:46:01,200 --> 00:46:03,360
Speaker 2: and analysas best call buck with all your bests this weekend,

972
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:05,360
Speaker 2: enjoyed the violent Thanks for listening with you.

973
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:16,439
Speaker 1: Next time, Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

974
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

975
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:22,000
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976
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:22,840
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