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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Sunday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Deal Juice podcast with me Matt

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Speaker 1: Paroltz here on bettingpros dot com. Always being brought to

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Speaker 1: you by bet MGM. That offer is above me on

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Speaker 1: YouTube for the video ten dollars to win one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty dollars. Great day to use that. By the way,

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Speaker 1: three games today in the playoffs. It's our last full

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Speaker 1: Sunday with three games with a early one o'clock, then

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Speaker 1: a four thirty, then a night game and then that's

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Speaker 1: it and then it's into playoffs for Sunday. We have

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Speaker 1: two games on Sunday next weekend, but we don't get

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Speaker 1: that three game, you know, early window, late window and

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Speaker 1: then late night game or evening game. This is it.

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Speaker 1: It's a great time to jump in here. Promo codejuice

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Speaker 1: one fifty at betmgm dot com, bet mgm or wherever

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Speaker 1: you use a bet mgm application is available to you. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So not a good day yesterday. Look at playoffs in

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Speaker 1: the NFL and me not great and my team got

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Speaker 1: completely embarrassed. There's no way around that. The Buffalo Bills

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Speaker 1: had a historic game a cathartic beat down of the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: Congratulations to Buffalo. I will say this, You've won a

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Speaker 1: wild card game. The Raiders lost the game on the

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Speaker 1: last play. The Patriots lost the game in the first quarter.

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Speaker 1: There is no difference. Okay, there is no difference. This

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Speaker 1: is where the tournament comes in. You lose, you go home,

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Speaker 1: you win, you advance. There is no moral victory, there

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Speaker 1: is no carryover. You don't take points you scored in

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Speaker 1: the first round in the second round. And that celebration

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Speaker 1: in Buffalo was a little bit. I would be a

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Speaker 1: little concerned about the emotions being let out there by

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Speaker 1: Buffalo knowing they have to win two more games just

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Speaker 1: to get to the super Bowl. Then they're going to

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Speaker 1: play an incredibly talented team. So I don't know, you

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Speaker 1: got the potential of playing Kansas City and then Tennessee

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Speaker 1: and then the Green Bay Packers beating a rookie quarterback, eh,

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Speaker 1: I mean, there are much bigger tests to come here

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Speaker 1: for the Buffalo Bills. But it's a win. Patriots did

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Speaker 1: not show out. The teaser goes down. Patriots at plus

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Speaker 1: ten do not come in. I did take money line

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Speaker 1: as well. Personally, that did not come in. I did

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Speaker 1: tease the Raiders up. Got that teaser right, which saved

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Speaker 1: me a little bit personally there because we got the

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Speaker 1: over team total wrong. For the Bengals, that's stunk because

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Speaker 1: they scored twenty six over twenty seven and a half,

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Speaker 1: but we had the nineteen and a half. Thank you

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Speaker 1: to the Raiders for kicking that field goal late in

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Speaker 1: the game and not going forward and fourth down, which

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Speaker 1: could score a touchdown there would have gotten them over

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Speaker 1: on the team total and would have burned both bets

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Speaker 1: for us. I was very nervous about that. So we

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Speaker 1: got one for two there, oh for one on the

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Speaker 1: one unit, one in one on the half unit bet,

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Speaker 1: and then one in three on the prop bets that

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Speaker 1: we came in with yesterday, Derek Carr went over two

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Speaker 1: and two and forty nine yards passing. Joe Burrow did

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Speaker 1: throw for one and a half touchdowns more than one

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Speaker 1: and a half touchdowns. The one probably got right. Nick

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Speaker 1: Folk had four points, not over six and a half.

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Speaker 1: Needed one more field goal for the Patriots in that

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Speaker 1: second half, and then mac Jones threw the ball thirty

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Speaker 1: eight times. I played under thirty and a half because

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Speaker 1: I thought the Patriots would be in the game and

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Speaker 1: they were not going to be able to be in

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Speaker 1: the game of Mac Jones threw the ball over thirty times,

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Speaker 1: which he did, and they weren't in the game. Easy,

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Speaker 1: easy as that they weren't in the game. So just

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Speaker 1: a complete blowout in that. Just you know, I thought

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Speaker 1: maybe we might get a chance at a back door

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Speaker 1: cover of the teaser if Mac Jones did a couple

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Speaker 1: different things, but both interceptions on the first drive of

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Speaker 1: the game and the first drive of the second half

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Speaker 1: ended any talk of that. So you know, Mac will

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Speaker 1: go and learn and we'll see. It is interesting though

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Speaker 1: that people tend to over I don't know what the

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Speaker 1: word is, like Mac Jones is a rookie in the postseason,

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Speaker 1: justin Fields isn't there, Trevor Lawrence isn't there. You know,

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Speaker 1: Zak Wilson's not there. I mean, he's the only rookie

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Speaker 1: in the postseason. Okay, So recognize that. Recognize like it's

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Speaker 1: a cathartic thing to see the Patriots get beat. But

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Speaker 1: you know, like I was arguing with somebody about like this,

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Speaker 1: Brady Brady would never have that happen with the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: It happened to Brady at home, guys. In two thousand

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Speaker 1: and nine, the Baltimore Ravens went into Foxboro in the

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Speaker 1: wild card round and beat the doors off the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: First play from scrimmage, Ray Rice went eighty yards for

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Speaker 1: a touchdown and it was twenty four to nothing. The

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Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens. Patriots were never in the game, and that

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Speaker 1: was at home and they got blown off the field.

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Speaker 1: It's happened to Belichick before it happened to Brady in

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Speaker 1: a Patriot uniform. So this idea of like Mac Jones

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Speaker 1: will never be Tom Brady, Well, I mean, who is, honestly,

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Speaker 1: who is? That standard is so unfair, it's ridiculous. And

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Speaker 1: we always have this like Skip Bayless hot take bomb

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Speaker 1: throwing bs after losses like this, it's a loss man.

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Speaker 1: Mac Jones didn't play well, Mac Jones after the bye.

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Speaker 1: The whole Patriot team sucked after the bye. Don't know

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Speaker 1: what happened. I mean they were hot going into the

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Speaker 1: by and after the buy everything just fell apart. They

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Speaker 1: were just a totally different football team for whatever reason. Injuries, momentum, teams,

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Speaker 1: figuring out the offense, whatever it might be, but just

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Speaker 1: making the playoffs. It was a huge surprise, and getting

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Speaker 1: Mac Jones in the draft was a huge surprise. It

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Speaker 1: was supposed to be Cam Newton again this season, and

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Speaker 1: they somehow got a rookie quarterback who took him to

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. So look, successful season, bottom line, great year,

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Speaker 1: big year for the Patriots, big step forward. Go back

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Speaker 1: into the draft. Go find a weapon. Go find what

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow has. Now you're not going to find a

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Speaker 1: Jamar Chase, but go find someone that's going to play

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Speaker 1: with Mac Jones that they're going to be instantly connected. Like,

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Speaker 1: go find one of the Bama wide receivers, Like, go

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Speaker 1: draft one of the Bama wide outs and bring them in,

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Speaker 1: and let's see what the Patriots can do. Let's do

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Speaker 1: what Mac can do when he's got a weapon to

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Speaker 1: throw to, because right now Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Nagelar

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Speaker 1: are not getting it done for the Patriots. I love

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Speaker 1: the tight ends, but you got to go and get

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Speaker 1: other weapons. So Buffalo's got a lot of work left

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Speaker 1: to do. That was a lot of celebration, and I

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Speaker 1: have no problem, by the way, with the Bills running

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Speaker 1: the score up. That didn't bother me at all. So

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Speaker 1: you're supposed to do in the playoffs. Just go ahead,

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Speaker 1: run it up, fat guy, touchdown, run it up, do

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Speaker 1: whatever you gotta do. I didn't bother me in the least.

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Speaker 1: Put that in the memory banks. And just you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't think the Bills are winning the AFC East,

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Speaker 1: so you know, when they lose, you can go. Okay,

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Speaker 1: you're home like us, watching the super Bowl like us. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I still think the Titans are an incredible value team

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Speaker 1: and all I needed from the Titans to win one game,

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Speaker 1: and most likely it's going to be a pretty good

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Speaker 1: opportunity Titans against the Bengals. Bengals on the road. I

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Speaker 1: like the Titans chances. I do, unless the Stealers wind

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Speaker 1: up winning and shocking the world tonight up against Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: Don't see that happening. But okay, so look I've already

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Speaker 1: given you two plays Sam Fran plus three. The Dogs

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Speaker 1: did not bark yesterday. Maybe it's time for the dogs

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Speaker 1: to bark today. Both home teams won and covered, so Niners.

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Speaker 1: I mean, going into the weekend, all the talk was

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Speaker 1: about the Dogs in wild card weekend and how great

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Speaker 1: they were and how great of a teaser opportunity it

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Speaker 1: was to do jump on the Dogs, and it worked

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Speaker 1: for the Raider game. It didn't work for the Patriots game.

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Speaker 1: But Bucks two and a half under fifty two. The wind,

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Speaker 1: the wind, the wind, we saw it last night. Cold

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter. Everyone was betting under under under that game.

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Speaker 1: The Bills the over covered the total themselves to go over, okay,

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter. Cold doesn't matter for the total. Only wind, okay.

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Speaker 1: And it's going to be extremely windy in Tampa. Under

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Speaker 1: fifty two for the Bucks, under fifty two for Mius

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Speaker 1: two and a half in a tim game teaser Bucks

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Speaker 1: under fifty two, Bucks miss two and a half. Okay.

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Speaker 1: I think the Eagles are going to cover that line.

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Speaker 1: I really I think, you know, eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: I think the Eagles are going to be in the game,

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Speaker 1: but I think it's gonna be a low scoring game.

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Speaker 1: So I'll explain that here in just one second. So

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Speaker 1: then that leaves Sam Fred in the Bucks. So the

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Speaker 1: two bets, okay. So the next bet I'm gonna give you.

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Speaker 1: I gave this bet to you four days ago. I

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Speaker 1: believe in the Discord channel. Okay, this number is technically gone,

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Speaker 1: but maybe you find it closer to kickoff. Okay, Kansas

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Speaker 1: City minus seven in the first half at minus one fifteen.

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Speaker 1: If you're listening to my other show, I sent my

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Speaker 1: wife to the book I saw this. There were two books.

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Speaker 1: I guess William Hill had it too. William Hill Caesar's

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Speaker 1: had this for a time as well. It was Miaus

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Speaker 1: one thirty at their book. I got Mius one fifteen

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Speaker 1: at Station's Casino here in Vegas, case Chiefs minus seven

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Speaker 1: in the first half. Now, why well, it's been a

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Speaker 1: well documented thing. In the first half. This Steeler team's

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Speaker 1: been bad. Okay, they've been real bad. Pittsburgh on the

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Speaker 1: year is six and eleven against the spread, down six

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Speaker 1: units if you tried to bet them against the spread

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Speaker 1: in the first half. The Casey Chiefs have been very

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Speaker 1: good in the first half. Kansas City nine and eight.

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Speaker 1: Gu's not very good. Nine and eight. They've been okay,

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Speaker 1: nine to eight against the number here in the first half.

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Speaker 1: I think this has back door written all over it.

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Speaker 1: I think much like the Bills came out at home

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Speaker 1: and started fast, the Bengals at home came out and

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Speaker 1: started fast, and the Chiefs are at home at night

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Speaker 1: on Sunday night football. They come in, they start fast,

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Speaker 1: they get a doublegit lead at the break, and then

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Speaker 1: the Steelers potentially they backdoor it. There's just a late touchdown.

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Speaker 1: There's big bet in the second half. The Steelers are

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Speaker 1: a much better second half team. In fact, it's a

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Speaker 1: live betting opportunity depending Like say, toy the Chiefs are

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Speaker 1: up seventeen points at halftime. Chance to kind of jump

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Speaker 1: in and potentially go and bet the Steelers, you know,

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Speaker 1: plus whatever, plus twenty whatever it might be, to kind

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Speaker 1: of come in and then you can get both bets

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Speaker 1: if you want. But the official play that I gave

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Speaker 1: them the Discord channel, I'm going Casey Chiefs one unit

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Speaker 1: minus seven for the first half, all right, so that

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Speaker 1: gives us plays on all three games. Okay, we've got

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Speaker 1: the Bucks minus two and a half and the under

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Speaker 1: fifty two teaser got Sam Fran plus three at Dallas,

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Speaker 1: and we've got this bet in the first half Casey

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Speaker 1: Chiefs minus seven in the first half. I am gonna

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Speaker 1: put two half unit plays in play here and I'll

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Speaker 1: give it to you right now, and then we'll have

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Speaker 1: four player props like we always do. I'll be doing

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Speaker 1: the live stream by myself. I don't know how this

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Speaker 1: is going to go. I haven't done one of these

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Speaker 1: by myself all year, and it will be eight o'clock

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Speaker 1: in the morning on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go for like twenty minutes, guys, Okay, I'm gonna go.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna break down the line move for the games.

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Speaker 1: There's three games to talk about. Normally there's you know,

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Speaker 1: a whole slate of games. There's three games. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: give you my thoughts on the side in total. In

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Speaker 1: all three games, we're gonna look and see if there's

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Speaker 1: a long teaser opportunity. I'm not sure that there's going

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Speaker 1: to be a wong teaser opportunity, but is if there

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Speaker 1: is a long teaser opportunity, I will give that out.

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Speaker 1: As of right now, Oh, there's money coming in in Philadelphia.

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Speaker 1: How about that? Fandels down to seven and a half? Interesting?

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Speaker 1: Other two games aren't moving, but there is movement on

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Speaker 1: the Eagles now plus seven and a half. So like

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Speaker 1: hypothetically Tampa, we've already teased Tampa down once totals forty six.

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Speaker 1: The only only game that it would qualify for is

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and Kansas City. And there's there's not gonna be

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Speaker 1: a long teaser. But unless the total in San Francisco

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Speaker 1: and the Cowboys come down, it's got to go to

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Speaker 1: forty nine, So it's gotta drop two points, which would

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Speaker 1: be surprising given the offenses. If it does drop down,

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Speaker 1: then maybe there's a long teaser to give away. But

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Speaker 1: I give out, but I don't think it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a long teaser to give out here. Well, no, we

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Speaker 1: could combine it with Monday Night. Okay, yeah, we might.

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Speaker 1: It's forty nine and a half for Cardinals rams, so

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Speaker 1: it's not like an official long teaser, but maybe there's

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Speaker 1: some movement, maybe the numbers will come down. We need

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals to go down to two and a half,

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Speaker 1: so we need some cardinal money, a lot of cardinal

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Speaker 1: money to come in drop that thing down to two

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Speaker 1: and a half, and then under money come in, drop

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Speaker 1: that thing down to forty nine, and then we could

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Speaker 1: potentially do a Cardinals plus eight and a half and

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Speaker 1: a Buccaneers teaser potentially on the live stream. So we'll

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Speaker 1: see what the numbers are in the morning on the

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Speaker 1: live stream for betting pros eight o'clock in the morning

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Speaker 1: Pacific eleven am Eastern time. Four. Well, actually, you know what, yeah,

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Speaker 1: eleven Amuse time. That's fine. Yeah, caause the game kicks

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Speaker 1: at one, so that's fine. Let me Okay, so let's

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Speaker 1: talk about the Eagles. Okay, So the Eagles team total

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Speaker 1: is one that I'm going to eyeball here because I

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Speaker 1: don't think they're going to be able to score. Okay,

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Speaker 1: team total is nineteen and a half for the Eagles. Look,

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Speaker 1: this is a RPO offense that is going to be

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Speaker 1: going up against the number one rush defense in the NFL. Okay,

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Speaker 1: they're really hard, number four rush defense DVOA. And the weather,

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Speaker 1: the wind is going to be a major factor. I

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Speaker 1: don't think Nick Sirian is going to trust Jalen Hurts.

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Speaker 1: I like a lot of unders in this game for

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Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts, a lot of you know, Brady unders. Jalen

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Speaker 1: Hurts under just think throwing the football is gonna be

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Speaker 1: very difficult for these quarterbacks and running the football. Even

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Speaker 1: though I totally understand that the Bucks are going to

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Speaker 1: be without Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette, I get that.

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Speaker 1: I just think that the that the Bucks can have

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Speaker 1: and can find enough ways to make plays here at

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Speaker 1: home with their with their athletes to move the football,

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Speaker 1: and I think this team is going to be able

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Speaker 1: to win the game by three points. I do, but

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Speaker 1: I think the Eagles are going to have a really

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Speaker 1: hard time scoring I think. I mean, I lean towards

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Speaker 1: the under in this game. Win, win, win. It's forty six, Okay.

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Speaker 1: Team total is nineteen and a half for the Eagles

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Speaker 1: half a unit. I'm betting the under under nineteen and

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Speaker 1: a half point total for the Philadelphia Eagles up against

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Speaker 1: Tampa if they're gonna win this game. I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: seventeen points. I think I'm giving the Eagles seventeen points.

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Speaker 1: That's the number I'm gonna give them. If they get

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Speaker 1: to twenty, we're dead. Okay, But if you get to twenty,

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Speaker 1: most likely the game's going over. And I'm not positive

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Speaker 1: the Bucks with their offense and all their injuries right now,

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Speaker 1: I might in love with the Buccaneers being able to

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Speaker 1: move the ball. I will here. I think this might

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Speaker 1: be an ugly football game with the wind and the

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Speaker 1: weather not gonna be raining, it's just gonna be really

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Speaker 1: really windy. I like the Bucks to slow on this.

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Speaker 1: Eagles under nineteen and a half points Philadelphia for a

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Speaker 1: half a unit for team total, and then we're going

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Speaker 1: with the over twenty three and a half for the

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Speaker 1: for the San Francisco forty nine ers. Let me just

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Speaker 1: double check and make sure that that number is where

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Speaker 1: I like it here, and it is twenty three and

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Speaker 1: a half at minus one thirty five. So it's mine

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Speaker 1: one twenty for the Eagles. Mine won thirty five choparun.

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Speaker 1: You maybe find better juice than that on the Niners

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Speaker 1: over twenty three and a half points scored against the

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Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys. The Dallas Cowboys give up twenty one point

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Speaker 1: one points per game. I do think that's inflated. This

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Speaker 1: is a team that you can run on four point

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Speaker 1: five yards per rush. That's twenty third in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Give up one hundred and twelve yards on the game

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Speaker 1: on the ground, that's middle of the pack, sixteenth in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. You can also throw in these guys. They

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Speaker 1: give up two hundred and thirty eight yards passing. Cowboys

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Speaker 1: are gonna get gashed. I believe here by this San

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Speaker 1: Francisco offense, I like Sam Freand to score more than

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Speaker 1: twenty three and a half points. They average twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Just get me a typical game, run the football, six

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Speaker 1: point one yards per play, Deebo Samuel touchdown, A lot

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Speaker 1: of Deebo Samuel props will get through all of them

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Speaker 1: coming up here on the live chat. Give you four

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Speaker 1: of them that I really like. But I'm leaning on

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Speaker 1: this game a lot here. I think Jimmy Garoppolo, God,

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Speaker 1: good stat. Niners are seven and zero when Garoppolo does

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Speaker 1: not throw a pick. Okay, big stat. Need Garoppolo to

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Speaker 1: be smart with the football. No WTF throws out of

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Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo. But we're going over twenty three and a

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Speaker 1: half points here for the Niners and the Cowboys fifty one.

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Speaker 1: What I'm concerned about is like Sam Fran wins the

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Speaker 1: game twenty four to twenty one. That's what I'm concerned

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Speaker 1: about because that goes under. So like that's my only thought, Like, well, man,

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Speaker 1: if you like the team total over twenty three and

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Speaker 1: a half for the for the Niners, why not bet

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Speaker 1: the over? Well? I don't know, I just I think

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Speaker 1: that number is right. I think fifty one's right. I

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Speaker 1: think it's right. Where twenty seven to twenty four that

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Speaker 1: kind of feels like the right score fifty one, like

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Speaker 1: right on it. So I don't think there's an edge,

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Speaker 1: don't think there's a lot of value in the total.

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Speaker 1: So I'm just going to go individual with the Niners. Here,

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Speaker 1: Niners team total over twenty three and a half for

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Speaker 1: a half a unit. Okay, So we've got two bets

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Speaker 1: in play for we have one teaser, one side one

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Speaker 1: first half and two team total bets here going for Sunday,

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Speaker 1: and I'll have four player props going. Okay, look, it's

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. One wants to go off with the you know,

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Speaker 1: firing go have a great time. I went, I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is where college camp comes in, and I don't

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Speaker 1: do this in college. I tend to kind of get

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Speaker 1: even more I shrink in college and then the pros.

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Speaker 1: I love the playoffs, so I go kind of nuts.

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Speaker 1: So if you guys want to fade this, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I lost nine units last year in the playoffs. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so I'm down one and a half in the postseason

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Speaker 1: to start in wild card weekend? All right, first day,

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Speaker 1: Wildcard weekend on a Saturday, lost one and a half units.

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Speaker 1: Let's see what happens here. But it's it's hard playoff

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Speaker 1: betting is extremely hard. Numbers are extremely sharp. A lot

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Speaker 1: of people I know really were on the Rave. We

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Speaker 1: were on the Raiders in the Patriots. Those were the

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Speaker 1: sharp sides yesterday and neither side hit. Okay, So we'll

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Speaker 1: see what today brings. Hopefully we get a couple of

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Speaker 1: more ws than we had yesterday for us. All right,

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Speaker 1: So run through the whole card here as we head

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Speaker 1: towards Sunday to day. Starting Bucks minus two and a

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Speaker 1: half under fifty two one unit twenty teaser Sam Fran

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Speaker 1: plus three minus one ten on the side first half

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Speaker 1: CAC minus seven at mius one fifteen. We're going team

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Speaker 1: total under nineteen and a half for the Eagles, team

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Speaker 1: total over twenty three and a half for the forty

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Speaker 1: nine ers. I will talk to you on the live

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Speaker 1: stream for the Sunday morning wild Card weekend with me

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Speaker 1: Matt Perrault on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Follow me

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. Every morning it's the

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Speaker 1: Deal Juice podcast always be brought to you by BETAMGM