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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney along

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Speaker 2: with Tom Keene. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: the best in economics, geopolitics, finance, and investment. You can

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Speaker 2: also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings

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Speaker 2: from seven to ten Eastern Remark Global Headquarters in New

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Speaker 2: York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or

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Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 3: Bob Michael joints is here. He's always focused.

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Speaker 2: Bob Michael, He's the CIO and head of Global Fixed Income,

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Speaker 2: Currency and Commodities Group at JP Morgan Asset Management.

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Speaker 3: He joins us here in our studio.

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Speaker 2: We appreciate that, Bob. Thanks for coming in from then.

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Speaker 2: You're like forty eighth Street down there, kind of where

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Speaker 2: the JP Morgan folks are the building, that new building,

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Speaker 2: which is.

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Speaker 3: Going to be awesome. I can't wait to check that out.

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Speaker 4: Bob.

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Speaker 2: What are you thinking about your Federal Reserve today? I'm

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Speaker 2: calling to get your Federal Reserve, two o'clock. What are

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Speaker 2: we gonna hear from your chairman.

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Speaker 5: Well, there's the top down in the micro From the

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Speaker 5: top down, I want them to get in and out

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Speaker 5: in two hours and do as little to disrupt the markets.

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Speaker 5: It should be a simple, easy meeting. Make it that way.

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Speaker 5: Go in and say, you know what, we're still looking

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Speaker 5: at stuff. Things are going pretty much in our direction.

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Speaker 5: Couple mixed signals. Maybe unemployment popped up a little bit,

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Speaker 5: maybe inflation's a little stickier. Nothing's ever a smooth past.

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Speaker 5: You're gonna get some bumps, but we're confident where we are.

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Speaker 5: See you in a few months. That would be ideal.

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Speaker 5: I think Jennifer is right. Welcome Jennifer. How nice these

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Speaker 5: two they're looking right at you.

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Speaker 3: I am not Tom.

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Speaker 5: I can see that it's in the dots, right, it's

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Speaker 5: in the dots. They probably have to move the dots

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Speaker 5: down to two easings this year from three because inflation

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Speaker 5: is looking a bit stickier. What we're interested in is

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Speaker 5: that long term median neutral dot. Is it really going

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Speaker 5: to stay at two and a half percent or is

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Speaker 5: that going to drift up a little bit?

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Speaker 4: I mean, okay, yes, I can see your ideal world

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Speaker 4: that we get in and we get out and nobody

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Speaker 4: gets hurt out of the conference after the meeting, But

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Speaker 4: we're going to have to get some sort of signaling

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Speaker 4: out of this man after you're through speaking, and you know,

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Speaker 4: how are we going to be fixed? If he does

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Speaker 4: a Bank of Japan and has no change but is

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Speaker 4: still a little bit hawkish because of all the upside

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Speaker 4: surprises we've had in inflation.

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Speaker 5: Well, I think he got burned on the pivot in

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Speaker 5: December because the data that's come out since December has

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Speaker 5: shown both an economic resilience and a little flare up

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Speaker 5: in inflationary pressures. So I think he's going to be

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Speaker 5: careful not to pivot again. And I think there is

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Speaker 5: an opportunity to just back up and say, hey, the

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Speaker 5: data will be mixed, we're confident of our policy. We're

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Speaker 5: going to watch things. Nothing's carved in stone.

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Speaker 2: So I guess that kind of goes to the issue

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Speaker 2: a lot of folks are having, which is with the inflation.

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Speaker 3: This lasts maybe three percent to.

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Speaker 2: Two percent inflation, that's gonna be a little bit harder

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Speaker 2: than coming from eight or nine percent down to three percent.

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Speaker 2: Does he frame that is like, we're okay with that.

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Speaker 2: We understand that we're still on our path. We're okay

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Speaker 2: with some of the recent data we've seen.

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Speaker 5: I think he can There was some expectation that the

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Speaker 5: start of the year you get slightly hotter inflation prints.

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Speaker 5: It happened last year and then tailed off. I think

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Speaker 5: the bigger thing for them to address are the significant

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Speaker 5: loosening in financial conditions indicators. The market has pretty much

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Speaker 5: done a couple easings for them, and that's percolating through

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Speaker 5: the system and it's doing a lot of things. It's

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Speaker 5: elevated equity prices. I know you commented that bonds were boring.

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Speaker 3: They're not.

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Speaker 5: They're roaring ahead. When we look at credit spreads, they've

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Speaker 5: narrowed a lot. Those are things that I'd like to

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Speaker 5: see him comment on at the press.

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Speaker 4: But I guess where are the balance of risks now

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Speaker 4: for the FED and either moving too slowly or moving too.

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Speaker 5: Quickly exactly, those are the balance.

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Speaker 2: Great, thank you.

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Speaker 5: I think it's a really tough one because you could

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Speaker 5: sit here and pretty much make any case that we're

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Speaker 5: in a soft landing right now that should continue for

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Speaker 5: the year. Yet we are seeing some tightness in the

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Speaker 5: labor market. We were looking at travel and leisure yesterday

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Speaker 5: it was the first day of spring at JPM Morgan.

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Speaker 5: We brought the travel and leisure analyst in from the

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Speaker 5: equity and credit research teams. They were all talking about

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Speaker 5: the tightness in airlines. It's not just so much the planes,

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Speaker 5: but it's the shortage of pilots, of crew, of airport's

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Speaker 5: maintenance staff. You look at hotels, they're starting to pick

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Speaker 5: up again. There's a lot of resiliency in consumer services.

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Speaker 5: I think that's got to be some of their concern

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Speaker 5: is that things start to accelerate again.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we follow at Lisa in this studio, we follow

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Speaker 2: the cruise industry a lot because that's just a great

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Speaker 2: barometer of what the consumers are and all the cruise

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Speaker 2: CEOs of the C suite folks that we talked to.

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Speaker 2: Business is booming the consumers and it seems to be

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Speaker 2: continue spending. What do you make of the US consumer here?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I heard that the Icon of the Seas has

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Speaker 5: like a triplex that rents out for one hundred thousand

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Speaker 5: a week on a cruise and that was book solid

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Speaker 5: for the next two years. So there's money out there.

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Speaker 5: I think you have to go back to now, what

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Speaker 5: is it four years ago March twenty twenty when the

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Speaker 5: Cares Act came through, And I think when we look

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Speaker 5: back on it ten years from now, we're going to

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Speaker 5: realize the amount of liquidity that was unleashed into the system.

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Speaker 5: And it feels like it's all slashing around, because how

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Speaker 5: can you have things like money market funds continue to

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Speaker 5: go up? Your over six trillion, so there's a lot

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Speaker 5: of money going into money market funds. The entire treasury

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Speaker 5: curve is trading below the FED funds rate, so clearly

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Speaker 5: money is going into the bond market. You look at

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Speaker 5: equity prices, they continue to set new highs. You look

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Speaker 5: at prices out in the consumer area, whether it's groceries

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Speaker 5: or houses, those are still high and staying there. Where

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Speaker 5: is all this money coming into elevate the price of

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Speaker 5: everything that is creating a resilience on the part of

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Speaker 5: the consumer. They continue to spend all.

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Speaker 2: Right, Bob, So we're gonna have a FED I guess

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Speaker 2: we're not going to do a whole lot today. They're

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Speaker 2: going to try it, as you mentioned, kind of just

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Speaker 2: case a steady is she goes as a fixed income

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Speaker 2: guy What.

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Speaker 3: Are you doing here?

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Speaker 2: You just buying the two year and getting four point

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Speaker 2: sixty seven percent of you're going out on some credit risk.

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Speaker 3: How much farther out?

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Speaker 2: Because last year and in the fixing the space, high

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Speaker 2: yield was the place to be.

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Speaker 3: What are you doing this year?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a good question because like many fixed income investors,

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Speaker 5: we want yields to go down, but we want them

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Speaker 5: to back up a bit so we can buy a

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Speaker 5: bit more. We're looking to buy every backup. We do

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Speaker 5: think that ultimately the Fed will be cutting rates this year.

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Speaker 5: We still think that regardless of whether they dial it

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Speaker 5: back and the dots to two, expect it cuts this year.

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Speaker 5: We think they'll do at least three in Inflation is

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Speaker 5: still closer to two to three percent than it was

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Speaker 5: to seven, and we're nowhere near what they've told us

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Speaker 5: they're two and a half percent neutral rate for the

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Speaker 5: Fed funds rate is, so we expect ray cuts. That

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Speaker 5: gets us to buy duration. Credit's the interesting one because

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Speaker 5: you are at the narrower end of their historic range.

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Speaker 5: When we look at something like high yield, which you

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Speaker 5: mentioned about three hundred and twenty five basis points over treasuries,

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Speaker 5: we go back to previous periods. You can stay here

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Speaker 5: for a long period of time. You look at the

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Speaker 5: period two thousand and four to two thousand and seven,

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Speaker 5: you traded either side of three hundred basis points for

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Speaker 5: most of that period. You actually got down to two

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Speaker 5: hundred and forty one basis points over treasuries. So there's

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Speaker 5: still a lot of room for credit to run, particularly

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Speaker 5: in a soft landing. You see the same thing in

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Speaker 5: investment grade corporates. They traded between eighty and one hundred

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Speaker 5: basis points over from two thousand and four to two

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Speaker 5: thousand and seven. By the way, that was when we

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Speaker 5: were heading barreling into the Great Financial Crisis, So there

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Speaker 5: were some stresses in the system. But it just tells

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Speaker 5: you when there's money out there and things look stable,

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Speaker 5: it will go into credit.

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Speaker 4: You know, with things getting so frothy, especially at the

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Speaker 4: lower end of the credit spectrum, are you sort of

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Speaker 4: starting to have a thought that we might be witnessing

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Speaker 4: the seeds of the next crisis. You have things like

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Speaker 4: the absence of credit or protections in high yield borrowing,

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Speaker 4: for example, or very risky credit, very risky mortgage securities

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Speaker 4: getting packaged into clos is that actually going to end

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Speaker 4: well for us.

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Speaker 5: Well, it's surprising that it's lasted this long. Because we

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Speaker 5: have had a five hundred and twenty five basis point

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Speaker 5: ray shot and we broke the regional banking system. We

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Speaker 5: thought there would have been more of a knock on

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Speaker 5: effect across credit. But when you look at the public

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Speaker 5: credit markets, they actually look pretty clean. When you talk

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Speaker 5: to our credit teams, the kind of issuance that they

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Speaker 5: would have historically seen at this part of the cycle

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Speaker 5: they haven't seen. And we think it's because the private

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Speaker 5: credit markets have grown to be so large they're effectively

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Speaker 5: absorbing the marginal buyer borrower that would be in the

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Speaker 5: public markets. If we go back to two thousand and seven,

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Speaker 5: the private credit markets didn't exist. It was all about

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Speaker 5: hedge funds leverage. Today the private credit market is about

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Speaker 5: one point seven trillion. It's actually just slightly larger than

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Speaker 5: the one point six trillion value of the public high

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Speaker 5: yield market. It's in a way acting as a form

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Speaker 5: of reinsurance to the public credit markets.

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Speaker 2: Do you get so, does JP Morgan play in that

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Speaker 2: private credit business at all? I mean, that's that's silly, separate.

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Speaker 5: From your world it's within our asset and wealth management businesses,

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Speaker 5: so we do have teams that look through it. They

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Speaker 5: see a lot of opportunity. They're looking at core opportunities

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Speaker 5: that are between nine and eleven percent, so first five

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Speaker 5: and three eighths, and credit spreads are four to five percent.

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Speaker 5: You're getting it largely from the increase in the Fed

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Speaker 5: funds rate, and then for the more marginal story borrowers,

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Speaker 5: you're looking at twelve to fifteen percent. You can escape it.

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Speaker 5: You have to realize that a new source of non

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Speaker 5: bank lending has been created since the start of the pandemic.

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Speaker 3: I tay you in that part.

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Speaker 2: Like when I was at the chaseman Aden Bank in

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Speaker 2: the media group, we lean against cashlow no asset values.

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Speaker 2: So to go to our credit committee and say we're

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Speaker 2: lending against airwaves, say for a cellular company, was crazy,

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Speaker 2: But that's leverage lending to me, and that was hugely profitable.

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Speaker 2: I'm surprised the banks have allowed that business to kind

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Speaker 2: of kind of go away from them in this private well.

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Speaker 5: I'm sure the regulators have had a hand in that.

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Speaker 5: But your conversation about Chase Manhattan about making loans, you

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Speaker 5: go back to the way the Fed traditionally operate it

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Speaker 5: was to lower rates, create some stimulus in the system,

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Speaker 5: create more lending into the system. This sort of extension

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Speaker 5: of credit, the credit multiplier. Well, that's what you see

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Speaker 5: in private credit now. It's an extension of credit into

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Speaker 5: the system. That one point seven trillion that's out there.

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Speaker 5: Regardless of how much of that's actually and tapped and lent,

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Speaker 5: it's still going to businesses who are using it. They're

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Speaker 5: hiring people, they're contracting for facilities, for goods and services.

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Speaker 5: That's going into the economy. It's real.

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Speaker 2: When is the new JP Morgan Chase building on Park

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Speaker 2: Avene going to be open? Because I've been watching that

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Speaker 2: since day one? And folks, next time you come to

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Speaker 2: the city Park Avenue like forty eighth Street, forty whatever,

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Speaker 2: it is, awesome building.

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Speaker 3: Once's it gonna be ready.

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Speaker 5: You're an alum, you should come back. I have a

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Speaker 5: look August twenty twenty five. Put it on your calendar

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Speaker 5: just paying me or Diamond Comma Jay and say you

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Speaker 5: were an alum.

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Speaker 3: Now this is what we get in. This is what

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Speaker 3: we're gonna do. We're gonna do Rich Meg.

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Speaker 2: Put this in the calendar for August twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance remote broadcast for the opening day of the

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Speaker 2: JP Marsham Let's chase, are think gonna bring everybody back

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Speaker 2: together again, hopefully in this building, because you guys are

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Speaker 2: all over the place now.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, we're across three buildings. We refer to it as

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Speaker 5: our Midtown campus. Oh okay, some are better buildings than others.

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Speaker 5: Some were in buildings that their glory years were about

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Speaker 5: fifty years ago. Yeah, so there's a lot of anxiousness

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Speaker 5: to just move around and get to the right place

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Speaker 5: sooner than that.

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Speaker 2: All right, I'm sure Jamie Diamond is driving a bus

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Speaker 2: on that one as usual. Bob Michael, thanks so much

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Speaker 2: for joining us. Bob Michael, he's the CIO. He's a

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Speaker 2: head of Global fixed income, Currency and Commodities Grow. We

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Speaker 2: call that thick here in the biz, JP Morgan, as imagine.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's check in with somebody who's also gonna

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Speaker 2: be paying attention to the FED today.

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Speaker 3: That's Dennis Lockhart.

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Speaker 2: He's a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Dennis,

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Speaker 2: thanks so much for joining us here. What do you

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Speaker 2: expect your former colleagues at the Fed to do today.

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Speaker 2: What's going to be a good day for the Fed today.

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Speaker 6: Good day would probably be not to make too much news.

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Speaker 6: I think they will certainly will be no policy action today.

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Speaker 6: I think the attention will be on the summary of

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Speaker 6: economic projections that's so called dot plot, and that could

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Speaker 6: move from the December dot plot in such a way

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Speaker 6: that the markets will react and the public will take

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Speaker 6: notice of. Probably fewer rate cuts would be the signal,

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Speaker 6: but I'm not one hundred percent sure that's going to

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Speaker 6: happen in in Powell's press conference, I think he will

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Speaker 6: stay very close to what he said in the recent testimony,

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Speaker 6: and therefore he's going to be noncommittal about June and

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Speaker 6: probably just repeat some of the themes that they still

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Speaker 6: expect to cut rates this year, but you know they're

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Speaker 6: not giving any indication of when that would start.

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Speaker 4: Let's go back to your comment on the dot plot,

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Speaker 4: because what I think a lot investors are going to

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Speaker 4: want to know is are we going to get two

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Speaker 4: cuts or three cuts? So what's going to be the

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Speaker 4: key factors do you think that policymakers are going to

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Speaker 4: have in mind when they consider either sticking with their

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Speaker 4: current dots or perhaps some people changing their tune and

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Speaker 4: shifting to two cuts this year.

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Speaker 6: I think what's on the mind of those who might

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Speaker 6: consider moving their dot to perhaps to lower that that

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Speaker 6: would be four to three and three to two. Is

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Speaker 6: the recent inflation picture, with disappointing inflation reports recently, and

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Speaker 6: the producer price index really actually jumped, it was quite hot,

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Speaker 6: and I think that just raises doubts in their minds

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Speaker 6: as to whether the relentless disinflation is going to continue,

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Speaker 6: or whether we're seeing a stall out of some kind,

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Speaker 6: possibly even the indications of some resurgence and inflation. All

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Speaker 6: of those are open questions, but they are questions on

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Speaker 6: the mind of committee members, and they're going to have

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Speaker 6: to think about whether they have effectively reset the clock

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Speaker 6: in order to get confident that disinflation will continue.

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Speaker 2: I've heard a couple of different camps out there. One is, oh,

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Speaker 2: it's just kind of seasonal beginning of the year, a

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Speaker 2: little pop up in inflation, don't worry about it. The

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Speaker 2: trend is still down, where some others are saying, hey,

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Speaker 2: it kind of feels like inflation's kind of reasserting itself

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Speaker 2: a little bit here.

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Speaker 3: How do you interpret the data.

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Speaker 6: Well, I'm very attuned to the quirkiness of the first quarter.

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Speaker 6: I was on the FMC for ten years. Half of

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Speaker 6: that time five years. I think we had unusual first

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Speaker 6: quarters that didn't allow you to extrapolate from the behavior

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Speaker 6: of the economy in the first quarter to the rest

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Speaker 6: of the year. So I think there's a reasonable chance

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Speaker 6: that these recent inflation numbers are anomalies or they are

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Speaker 6: just bumps in the road. They're not necessarily indicating any

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Speaker 6: change in the overall trend, and so I would, you know, cautiously,

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Speaker 6: remain hopeful that the disinflation should continue as the year

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Speaker 6: goes on. Also, there is some indication of the slowing

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Speaker 6: of growth, which is part of the pressure that's put

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Speaker 6: on prices. The Atlanta Feds GDP now, which is measuring

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Speaker 6: the first quarter, is just above two percent or around

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Speaker 6: two percent. That's down from from over three percent in

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Speaker 6: the fourth quarter and over five percent in the third quarter.

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Speaker 6: So there does seem to be a slowing trend, and

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Speaker 6: I think that will help on the inflation front as well.

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Speaker 4: How do you think Fed officials read the bigger risks

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Speaker 4: now for either moving too soon or moving not quickly enough.

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Speaker 6: I think they probably at this moment, are more concerned

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Speaker 6: with moving too soon than not quickly enough. Having said that,

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Speaker 6: they're certainly aware, and there has been some who have

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Speaker 6: commented on recession risk. They're certainly aware that if they

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Speaker 6: stay too long at these elevated levels of the policy rate,

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Speaker 6: they could precipitate a slow down. Whether it would amount

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Speaker 6: to a recession, but it could be an unnecessary slow down.

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Speaker 6: So they're trying to thread the needle here. They're really

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Speaker 6: trying to preserve the soft landing that we're in and

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Speaker 6: the employment levels that we're enjoying, without you know, pushing

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Speaker 6: the economy into recession. I think at the moment they're

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Speaker 6: probably more concerned that they could go too early.

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Speaker 2: Dennis, do you think the FED has taken the recession

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Speaker 2: risk off the table or do you still think that's

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Speaker 2: something they're really actively trying to guard against.

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Speaker 6: I think they probably view it as a contingency with

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Speaker 6: lower than fifty percent probability, so it's not necessarily something

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Speaker 6: that they can see developing in the data. But it's

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Speaker 6: always possible that they make a policy error, they stay

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Speaker 6: too long, and then they have to play catch up

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Speaker 6: and the economy ends up in a cycle that's trending

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Speaker 6: more weekly than they really intended. There's always a possibility that.

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Speaker 2: All right, Dennis, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 2: We really appreciate getting some of your time this morning.

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Speaker 2: Dennis Lockhart, he's a former president of the Federal Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank of Atlanta. We appreciate getting some of this time.

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Speaker 2: Francis Donald, Chief Economists and Manual Life Investment Management. She

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Speaker 2: joins us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Francis,

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Speaker 2: you know, it's FED Day today, so let's just start

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Speaker 2: right there. What do you expect to hear from the

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Speaker 2: US Federal Reserve today?

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Speaker 7: I don't know. And I think that's the most interesting

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Speaker 7: part of this is that we're going into this and

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Speaker 7: I think many FED watchers are trying to figure out

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Speaker 7: what is the FED going to care about? And one

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Speaker 7: of the big problems that we're having is there is

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Speaker 7: a whole bunch of data pointing towards softness of inflation

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Speaker 7: resilient economy, and then there's other data that says, actually,

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Speaker 7: you know, there's weakness in the labor market and inflation

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Speaker 7: is too sticky, so you can actually construct whatever narrative

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Speaker 7: you want. What's really important from the FED today is

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Speaker 7: to find out which data points they are watching. Do

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Speaker 7: they care about financial conditions? Again they used to, then

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Speaker 7: they didn't. Do they care about core CPI? Do they

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Speaker 7: care about PCE shelter? Give us the data points that

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Speaker 7: you're watching so that we have an idea of what

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Speaker 7: your decision making function is. Right now it's not.

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Speaker 4: Clear, but I've been a reporter many a central bank

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Speaker 4: press conference, and then what we whenever we ask what

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Speaker 4: indicator you're watching? We always get told we watch everything,

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Speaker 4: which is not helpful. So what would you like to

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Speaker 4: hear from them? What would you want them to be

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Speaker 4: their pick? Because you know we always hear them focused

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Speaker 4: on core supercore inflation, but what else?

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Speaker 7: Well, that's why FED watchers get paid what we do,

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Speaker 7: which is that we're supposed to parse the details and

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Speaker 7: not necessarily list directly. Now, one of the clues that

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Speaker 7: we can use without them actually saying here are the

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Speaker 7: three data points we're looking at, is what does that

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Speaker 7: dot plot do? Because if we move from three cuts

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Speaker 7: this year to two, that's going to signal to us

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Speaker 7: that they are putting a little bit more weight on

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Speaker 7: some of that sticky inflation. And yet I'm going to

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Speaker 7: be watching a lot of the conversation around twenty twenty

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Speaker 7: five and twenty twenty six, because we're spending an awful

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Speaker 7: lot of time talking about are they going to cut

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Speaker 7: in June? Are they going to cut in September? That

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Speaker 7: for most of my clients, for our funds is far

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Speaker 7: less relevant than what the next eighteen months of cuts

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Speaker 7: looks like. Are we in a nineteen ninety five soft

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Speaker 7: landing with three or four cuts or are we going

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Speaker 7: to be in something that resembles much more of a

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Speaker 7: traditional easing cycle, which is hundreds of basis points. That

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Speaker 7: story is the core for most investors, not whether they

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Speaker 7: start in June to September, not if it's two or

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Speaker 7: three cuts.

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Speaker 2: Do you think the US feder Reserve is afraid of

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Speaker 2: a recession or they'd kind of taken that off the table?

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Speaker 3: Do you think?

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Speaker 6: Yeah?

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Speaker 7: That in my preview that I wrote for our internal

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Speaker 7: clients is oh right now. The genesis of the question

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Speaker 7: is exactly that, which is, are they still trying to

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Speaker 7: land the soft landing story or are they afraid of

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Speaker 7: a recession? And this is really core because you might

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Speaker 7: remember at Jackson Hole in twenty twenty two, we were

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Speaker 7: told we are not afraid of a recession, we may

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Speaker 7: need a recession to bring inflation back down, and then

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Speaker 7: we started to hear a different story, which is we're

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Speaker 7: going to try to prevent a recession with that December

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Speaker 7: FED pivot party. So I want to know from them,

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Speaker 7: and they're not going to tell us directly, but we're

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Speaker 7: going to parse the words. I want to know from them.

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Speaker 7: Are they still trying to engineer that soft landing or

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Speaker 7: are they okay if they enter recession territory.

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Speaker 3: One of the.

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Speaker 7: Challenges here is that it's very difficult, just like it's

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Speaker 7: hard to have a soft landing, to have a small

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Speaker 7: and kind of baby recession. And what we need to

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Speaker 7: be aware of, and this is I think what would

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Speaker 7: keep me up at night if I were a FED official,

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Speaker 7: is that things don't tend to break calmly when they break.

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Speaker 7: Recessions don't occur in straight lines. They are nonlinear. Take

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Speaker 7: a look at the unemployment rates or jobless claims. When

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Speaker 7: they break, they break hard and fast. That's what I'm

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Speaker 7: most concerned about, and I'll be looking for signs from

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Speaker 7: the FED. Are they also worried about that risk?

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Speaker 4: You know, if I could let's move a little bit

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Speaker 4: more internationally, because we've got a lot of central bank

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Speaker 4: decisions this week, and one thing that we've been noticing

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Speaker 4: in Bloomberg News is how synchronized central banks have started

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Speaker 4: to become.

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Speaker 3: What do you make of.

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Speaker 4: That in terms of what that should mean for the

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Speaker 4: outlook for a US policy.

439
00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 7: To me, it suggests that while a lot of the

440
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:03,199
Speaker 7: factors that we're driving inflation, we're global in nature, so

441
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 7: inflation globally is pretty much coming down, especially for developed markets,

442
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 7: about the same amount of time. So we have June

443
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 7: circled for every major central bank, the ECB, the Bank

444
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,719
Speaker 7: of England's pretty close, the FED, the Bank of Canada,

445
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,399
Speaker 7: They're all pretty much going to be ready to go

446
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 7: in June, and that's when we will know definitively that

447
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 7: the worst of inflation is behind us. But to me,

448
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,440
Speaker 7: it calls into question how much of the decline we've

449
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 7: seen in inflation so far has been due to FED

450
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 7: or central bank hiking, and how much of it really

451
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 7: was the supply side factors from COVID. And I know

452
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 7: it's still not popular to say it, but to me,

453
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 7: what you're really getting at is that this inflation. A

454
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:45,439
Speaker 7: huge part of it was transitory. It was made not

455
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 7: worse by hiking, certainly globally, and now those transitory factors

456
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:53,119
Speaker 7: are coming undone and central banks can ease off. And

457
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 7: the best example is, yes, the Bank of Japan just hiked,

458
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 7: but their inflation came down with just about everyone else

459
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 7: with no hikes at all. So there's much more of

460
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 7: a global narrative around inflation than I think many of

461
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 7: these individual countries, when you're looking just domestically, have admitted

462
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 7: so far. I think when we look back in history,

463
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 7: we're going to see this was a global story. We

464
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 7: are still in a post COVID economy, and that is

465
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 7: really much more important than these individual meetings that are

466
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 7: happening with each central bank.

467
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 2: How about the US labor market, It's been a tremendously resilient,

468
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 2: although we did see the unemployment right kick up to

469
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 2: I guess three point nine. So why do you think

470
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 2: the Fed views the labor market in their calculus?

471
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 7: Well, it depends what bias they want to have. So

472
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,679
Speaker 7: we made a list of all the job market indicators

473
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 7: that we're saying there was weakening happening, and then others

474
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 7: that said jobs were doing just fine, and they were

475
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 7: about equal and a page long at the same time.

476
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,120
Speaker 7: So for every data point that said things are just fine,

477
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 7: in fact the labor market's still strong. Like jobless claims,

478
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 7: we have other data like rehiring activity or job cuts

479
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,959
Speaker 7: that suggests the opposite. So this is why I say

480
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 7: it's going to be really important to get a sense

481
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 7: from the FED as to what they're watching, because this

482
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 7: really is a situation where you can make up an

483
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 7: argument for either side of the narrative. My personal take

484
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,199
Speaker 7: is that when you start to see some indicators fail,

485
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 7: the other ones are likely behind it, and as I

486
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 7: said before, they don't tend to move smoothly. So I

487
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 7: still believe that recession risks are underpriced in this market,

488
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 7: and we need to be really cognizant of the risk

489
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 7: that if a recession order materialize, it's about two years

490
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 7: after the first rate hike. That's today, that's today.

491
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:29,920
Speaker 4: That's That's such an interesting idea because you know, I'm

492
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 4: looking at the FED calendar. If you type FOMC, you

493
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 4: can see the upcoming meetings, So if they were to

494
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 4: go in June, and you know, that's not at all

495
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 4: a foregone conclusion. You're looking at July and September. Those

496
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 4: are the only meetings left before the US presidential election.

497
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 4: So what I start to think about then is what

498
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 4: kinds of political pressure the FED might come under and

499
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 4: something that might push them into either staying their hand

500
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 4: or moving more quickly, because if, as you say, recessionary

501
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 4: pressures are going to start picking up, they're going to

502
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:58,439
Speaker 4: have to start kicking it up with the rate cuts.

503
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 4: So how do you read the political environment in terms

504
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 4: of how that's going to dictate what the FED does?

505
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 1: Well.

506
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 7: The FED will tell us this is a nonsense thing.

507
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 7: We're completely independent. It's unrelated. But here's the challenge with

508
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 7: the FED and central banks, and being a central bank watcher.

509
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 7: They are people and humans too, so we have to

510
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 7: assume that perhaps they have some sort of even subconscious

511
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 7: bias that's coming into play. But at the end of

512
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 7: the day, recessions are economies are giant ships, and if

513
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 7: the election is coming up in just a few short meetings,

514
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 7: whether the FED cuts in June or July or September

515
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 7: is probably not going to save this economy from a recession.

516
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 7: If there's a recession happening this year, it is a

517
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 7: foregone conclusion. If it's not happening, then this time truly

518
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:44,879
Speaker 7: was different.

519
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 3: All right, Fancis, thank you so much for joining us.

520
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 2: Really appreciate if Francis Donald, she's a chief economist at

521
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 2: Manual Life Investment Management, joining us live here in a

522
00:27:52,440 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 2: Bloomberg interactive work for studio, your daily look at the

523
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,199
Speaker 2: front pages around the world at least ta lots of

524
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,159
Speaker 2: cool stuff to talk about. Where do you want to

525
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 2: start here with some of the newspapers?

526
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 1: All right, we'll starting with Bloomberg. They're saying that women's

527
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 1: household work it could be added to US CPI Consumption Survey.

528
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 3: Here's not reason why it's no exactly.

529
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 1: So this is a report contracted by the Bureau of

530
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,640
Speaker 1: Labor Statistics. It found that eighty percent of household services

531
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: that are crucial to spending living standards. We're talking about childcare,

532
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:36,719
Speaker 1: even do it yourself home repairs, they are provided by women. Okay,

533
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 1: So the agency wants a consumer price index to reflect

534
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 1: that work, and then it relies on this Consumer Expenditure

535
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 1: survey to get that. So, yes, it could be added

536
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 1: into that.

537
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 4: I mean, I guess the Labor Statistics got there. In

538
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 4: the end. This is decades that we've known exactly.

539
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 2: So I mean, I would think this would have a

540
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 2: big dollar amount impact on this you know index.

541
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 1: For sure, Yes, definitely, So we'll see it could happen.

542
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 3: All right, all right, we're not very happy in the US.

543
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 1: Is that the thing we're not and it's very sad. Okay,

544
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 1: there's a poll out there. It's a gallop whorl pole

545
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: for the World Happiness Report twenty twenty four. There is

546
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: such a thing.

547
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 3: Okay.

548
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 1: The reason that the US has dropped down is because

549
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 1: of younger Americans thirty years and younger. They're reporting that

550
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 1: decline in their living standards, so they're not happy. So

551
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 1: that's pulling it down. So Americans, we fell to twenty

552
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 1: third place, really fifteenth a year ago. It's the first

553
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 1: time we fell out of the top twenty since about

554
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 1: twenty twelve when this poll started coming out. So that's

555
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: what they're saying. It's the younger generation. They're not happy.

556
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 1: The living standards are tough. They did give a couple

557
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: of points about how you can become.

558
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 3: Happier if you're interested.

559
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 1: You can strengthen your relationships, you can volunteer, get outside

560
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 1: more exercise.

561
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't.

562
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 1: But it's the younger general.

563
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 4: What about Netflix binging? Is that something that's gonna make

564
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 4: me happier.

565
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: If that's what makes you happy, then go for it

566
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 1: because you can help us pull up this poll.

567
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 4: But so it's the younger for I can see it though,

568
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 4: because mortgage rates are so high, it's so hard to

569
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 4: save up for your deposit. The inflation pressure is disqueezing you.

570
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 4: And then student debt. But then also just insecurity in

571
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 4: the job market. Lots of gig economy work part time contracts.

572
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 3: But I mean we're full employment.

573
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 2: I'm like, all the sweety offspring are employed, you know

574
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 2: that are employable?

575
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 7: Rare.

576
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 3: I figure like I got my job is done there. Yeah,

577
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 3: I don't know.

578
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 1: Well, you know they're saying to the younger generation, they

579
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 1: say they're disconnected to from in person. They're more in

580
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 1: social media, they're more in their phones than the older

581
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 1: generation who's around talk where you're used to talking with

582
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 1: people and that's how we grew up. So that's a

583
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 1: big difference there. All right, Bloomberg, big take story we're

584
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 1: talking about show. Hey o Tani, Okay, he's playing right now.

585
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 1: The Dodgers open the season the padres. They're in South Korea,

586
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 1: and this Bloomberg big take really looks into can he

587
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 1: become you know, global, a global sensation, which I mean

588
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 1: most likely the answer is yes. But I mean new sponsors,

589
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 1: a lot of them coming from Asia. This of course,

590
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 1: game helping out the crowds of Dodgers Spring training facility

591
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 1: three or four times.

592
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,959
Speaker 3: And I saw that. Wow, it's crazy. It's crazy.

593
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 1: Resale ticket prices for Dodgers' home games risen more than

594
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 1: ten percent. I mean, this guy is huge, and you

595
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 1: know why. I mean, he dominates as a hitter and

596
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 1: a pitcher, which is a rare thing since what Babe.

597
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 3: Ruth, Yeah, exactly, exactly.

598
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 2: And I guess you know, there's when he was a

599
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 2: free agent, there's talking maybe coming to an East Coast team,

600
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 2: whether it's the Yankees or you know, the Red Sox

601
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 2: or some something like that, which would have been big

602
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 2: because we don't see him as much here on the

603
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 2: East Coast as obviously he's been on the West Coast.

604
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,960
Speaker 2: But boy, it makes a ton of sense for the

605
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 2: Major League Baseball and trying to grow the game in

606
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 2: Asia and starting the season in South Korea.

607
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 3: What a great move by Major League Bass.

608
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 1: And what's interesting you mentioned South Korea too. The New

609
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 1: York Times had something similar, they said, how Otani, he's

610
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 1: from Japan, and then you have South Korean baseball fans.

611
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 1: So it's kind of putting that.

612
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 3: Piece because there's between a lot of free in Japan,

613
00:31:58,680 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 3: a lot.

614
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 2: Of I guess between Japan and Korea's you know, dating

615
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 2: back long time, a long time, including World War two

616
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 2: some of the treatment there. So, but it seems like

617
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 2: the Koreans are embracing Japanese shohill tiny, which is great

618
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: for both countries, great for the game.

619
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:15,479
Speaker 3: So you know, more power to him.

620
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 2: And you know you're in the number two market in

621
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 2: the US in LA and boy that's a good thing.

622
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 3: No kidding, no kidding.

623
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 1: All right, our last story, this is business inside.

624
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 3: This was the thing. This is the thing.

625
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 1: So you know, billionaires they have their thing like Steve

626
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 1: Jobs it was you know the black turtleness, right, you

627
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 1: had Mark Zuckerberg always had that casual t shirt like

628
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 1: they all had their look and their thing and video

629
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 1: CEO Jensen Wang. You notice it's the black leather jacket.

630
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 1: So Business Insider they did the research and they looked

631
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 1: into this and they said, he's warned at least six

632
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 1: different jackets of black leather jackets in recent years.

633
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 3: So apparently this is his thing.

634
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 1: His wife and his daughter dress him, That's what he said.

635
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 1: So that's why he has the cool look. Of course,

636
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 1: the women behind him pushing him into the fashion sense.

637
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 1: His latest look came from Tom Ford's spring collection. Did

638
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 1: you in retail that jacket for eight nine and ninety dollars?

639
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 2: That's a Matt Miller jacket. Okay, so let's speak of

640
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 2: Matt Miller. He has more jackets than Jensen Wong. And

641
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 2: Matt Miller has his like custom made like from all

642
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 2: over the world. They pick out the horse or the

643
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 2: cow or whatever it is. It's just crazy. So people

644
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 2: are into these jackets. It's not just Jensen Wong.

645
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 1: No, it's Jensen Wong, but it's also that whole concept

646
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 1: behind it of it gives them less to worry about. Yeah,

647
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 1: they just know they're going to PLoP on a leather

648
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 1: jacket and call it a day.

649
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 4: Do you know what that reminds you of? There was

650
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 4: an interview that Vanity Fair did with Obama and he's like,

651
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 4: I got the blue suits, and I got the gray

652
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 4: suits and that is what I am wearing.

653
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 1: Right right, And that's what Steve Jobs always said, he said,

654
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 1: it takes the thinking out. I have other things to

655
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 1: think about. Wardrobe is the last thing I need to

656
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 1: think of.

657
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 3: I'm looking at rich Go.

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00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 2: One of my favorite functions on the Bloomber terminal, Jensen Wong.

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00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 2: He is ranked a twentieth in terms of the world's

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00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 2: richest people, with a net worth of seventy eight point

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00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 2: eight billion. So that number in and of itself is impressive.

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00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 2: What I like is the change year to date. So

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00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 2: he's gained thirty four point eight billion dollars just this year,

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00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:09,720
Speaker 2: so that's pretty solid.

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00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,879
Speaker 4: That's pretty solid, I mean, and with Nvidia just being

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00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 4: so hot hot hot, well, we're going to see more

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00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:15,239
Speaker 4: fluctuation there.

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00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, so interesting there. So all right, Lisa Miteya, thank

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00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 3: you so much.

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00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:23,280
Speaker 2: As the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in economics, geopolitics, finance,

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00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 2: and investment. You can also watch the show live on YouTube.

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00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 2: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the

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00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:32,799
Speaker 2: show weekday mornings from seven to ten Eastern from our

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00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:35,760
Speaker 2: global headquarters at New York City. Subscribe to the podcast

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00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 2: on Apple Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and as

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00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:42,240
Speaker 2: always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and The Bloomberg Business.

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Speaker 1: Apple