WEBVTT - How Futurology Works 0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:04.480 This delightful program is brought to you by Squarespace. Beautiful 0:00:04.519 --> 0:00:09.200 websites for beautiful bands like Walk the Moon band dot com. 0:00:09.240 --> 0:00:11.960 So the name of their tour is talking is hard. 0:00:12.400 --> 0:00:15.160 It's not that hard, guys. I'm doing it now. Most 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:17.119 of the time. I can't stop talking. I mean you 0:00:17.239 --> 0:00:19.119 literally would have to cut me off one time. I 0:00:19.120 --> 0:00:21.759 told yeah, yeah, yeah, Alec Baldwin, we get it, you 0:00:21.800 --> 0:00:24.840 are talking too much. But you like square space and 0:00:24.880 --> 0:00:27.680 we like square space, so we appreciate you getting on 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:30.880 our podcasts to help us plug one of our great sponsors. 0:00:31.640 --> 0:00:34.840 Welcome to you. Stuff you should know from House Stuff 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:43.279 Works dot com. Hey, and welcome to the podcast. I'm 0:00:43.400 --> 0:00:47.680 Josh Clark. There's Charles W. Chuck Bryant and Jerry's here 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:51.800 and it's stuff you should know from the future, but 0:00:52.000 --> 0:00:57.440 not really. How are you doing. I'm fine, Well, good, 0:00:57.840 --> 0:01:01.640 that's good. I enjoyed. This was kind of neat, Yeah 0:01:01.680 --> 0:01:05.360 it was. It was funny, like when you're reading about 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:11.640 futurology in futurologists a k a. Futurists, you tend to 0:01:12.000 --> 0:01:15.640 want to make it like more than it actually is, 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:18.760 and when you look into the topic, it keeps having 0:01:18.760 --> 0:01:21.080 to be beaten down just because of the name alone. 0:01:21.280 --> 0:01:24.560 It sounds like a little bit like a I could 0:01:24.560 --> 0:01:29.440 do a seer. And you know, sometimes they're thinking about 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:34.720 they're using these these really neat techniques to predict the future. Um, 0:01:36.400 --> 0:01:41.720 they're talking about some really mundane stuff, boring stuff economic forecasts, 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:44.360 things like that how much oil will be left in 0:01:44.400 --> 0:01:46.399 thirty years, that kind of thing. But then on the 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:48.760 other hand, if you're a futurologist, you may also be 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:51.960 tasked with figuring out what technology we're going to be 0:01:52.040 --> 0:01:56.400 using in thirty years or you know what, what what 0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:59.520 color the shiny jumpsuits were all gonna wear will be? 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:01.760 That kind this stuff. Yeah, I think one of my 0:02:01.800 --> 0:02:07.640 favorite things is to look at past future predictions. It's fun. Yeah, 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:12.200 there's nothing that will make someone look less knowledgeable than 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:14.799 going back to what they thought the future would look 0:02:14.840 --> 0:02:17.000 like in the year two thousand, like back in the 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:21.000 nineteen thirties or forties or sometimes some of those things happen. Yeah, 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:24.320 and then it's amazing. Yeah, that's like wow, you know, 0:02:24.600 --> 0:02:28.120 because sometimes these guys are like really really dead on 0:02:28.400 --> 0:02:31.040 And I was reading an article, Um, I think it 0:02:31.080 --> 0:02:33.320 was in Harvard Business Review, and it was a post 0:02:33.400 --> 0:02:39.120 by Paul uh Sappho, who runs a venture capital firm 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:43.920 I believe called Discern. Yeah, and um, Paul staff was 0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:46.760 saying like he was, he was trying to get across 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:56.520 that sci fi authors and future ologists their paths overlap 0:02:56.680 --> 0:02:59.360 quite a bit, but really there's pretty big distinctions. And 0:02:59.440 --> 0:03:02.680 even in this article they got lumped in together because 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:08.720 sci fi writers do definitely use futurology techniques. But Paul 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:11.840 Cepo was saying, like, yeah, but a real futurologist you 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:15.120 have to use logic, whereas if you're a sci fi writer, 0:03:15.160 --> 0:03:16.920 you can just use your imagination. You don't have to 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:19.560 back it up with anything. Creature ologists, you have to 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:24.440 use logic that makes sense to the whoever's hearing your prediction. Yeah, 0:03:24.440 --> 0:03:27.000 And I think that's one reason why some sci fi 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:31.240 writers have uh been right on the nose with some 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:36.480 future predictions, because they're not hampered by logic and they 0:03:36.480 --> 0:03:41.280 can just uh free form, you know. But then it's 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:43.720 just a lucky guess. No, I don't think so. I 0:03:43.760 --> 0:03:46.080 think they're still applying a lot of the same rules 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:51.400 of uh futurology, but they're just not bound by you know, 0:03:51.960 --> 0:03:55.400 the laws of uh not not the laws, but you 0:03:55.400 --> 0:03:58.840 know the laws of logic. Yeah, exactly, I'm with you. 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:01.280 But that's the best. It's fiction, though, I think, is 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:05.840 something that logically makes sense. Yeah, because then it's it's 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:11.440 just fantasy. Yeah, that's true. So futurology is um recognizing 0:04:11.440 --> 0:04:17.320 and assessing potential future events. Uh. I could have sworn 0:04:17.360 --> 0:04:19.680 Jonathan Strickland wrote this by the way it read, but 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:23.880 it was not. It's very strickland desk. Nicholas Gurbus, Yeah, 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:27.960 that's Strickland's alter ego. I wonder if it is. I've 0:04:27.960 --> 0:04:32.240 never met this Nicholas Curbus. But the point Gurbus makes, 0:04:32.240 --> 0:04:34.320 which I think is good, is it's a product of 0:04:34.320 --> 0:04:37.400 our times in many cases, like depending on where we 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:41.400 are as a society, um, And like he makes a 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:43.880 great point. During the Civil War there probably weren't a 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:47.039 lot of like rosy predictions for the future American Civil War. 0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:50.920 But in the Gilded Age people a lot more optimistic, optimistic, 0:04:51.000 --> 0:04:53.920 so they may have you know, it's a whole different deal. 0:04:54.080 --> 0:04:58.000 Like during the Cold War, for instance, a lot of paranoia, 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:01.119 a lot of cynicism, probably not to be a rosy 0:05:01.160 --> 0:05:04.560 outlook for the future, right like during the Gilded Age 0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:07.279 when it was rosier. Yeah, way more optimistic than the 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:10.320 Cold War, which is kind of ironic because the Guilded 0:05:10.360 --> 0:05:13.040 Age didn't have anything to be optimistic about. They were 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:18.960 just pretending. Hence the name, Um the thing is. What 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:21.479 you've just said, though, is is kind of an argument 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:24.839 against future ology because one of the big critiques of 0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:27.440 it is that a future ologist, they're not doing anything. 0:05:27.720 --> 0:05:31.160 Even if you're commenting on the past or the future, 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:35.920 you're still really commenting about your present, your contemporary time, 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:39.440 because that's what you or recent past, that's what you 0:05:39.560 --> 0:05:42.719 some what you've lived through and experienced. That's all you 0:05:42.760 --> 0:05:47.440 can really reflect on is and and future ology seeks 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:50.120 to go beyond that. Well, yeah, that makes sense. So 0:05:50.200 --> 0:05:52.360 if you like, look at this thing that is happening 0:05:52.440 --> 0:05:56.360 now or just happened, then what is going to be 0:05:56.480 --> 0:05:59.880 happening in that thing in ten years? And it's it's 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:02.760 a lot of times based on how the direction is 0:06:02.760 --> 0:06:07.599 currently going. Yes, okay, so um gurbis makes a pretty 0:06:07.640 --> 0:06:11.040 good gives a good example that the cell phone grew 0:06:11.040 --> 0:06:15.680 out of the telegraph, which ultimately is related further back 0:06:15.720 --> 0:06:19.359 to the smoke signal, sure, right, Yeah, But if you 0:06:19.360 --> 0:06:21.600 were a future all just hanging out around somebody who 0:06:21.640 --> 0:06:24.960 was sending smoke signals, would you be able to predict 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:30.200 the cell phone? Probably not or not. Could you predict 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:35.040 the impact of the automobile or the highway system? Maybe? 0:06:35.480 --> 0:06:39.440 But would you predict that people would um have sex 0:06:39.440 --> 0:06:42.320 in the back seat of a car because it provides 0:06:42.360 --> 0:06:46.080 a little well, I don't think they did. Or urban sprawl? Yeah? 0:06:46.080 --> 0:06:50.640 Could you predict excerbs and edge cities just because the 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:52.760 highways got built? Yeah, and not a lot of people did, 0:06:52.839 --> 0:06:55.240 even though a lot of people said there's going to 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:58.440 be horseless carriages one day, and it's going They're going 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:00.600 to change things big time. People are going to be 0:07:00.680 --> 0:07:03.760 able to move around a lot more. But that doesn't 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:08.360 mean that everybody saw every result of the automobile. Um, 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:13.960 it was a game changer. Yeah, has what you could agreed? So? 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:16.520 Um what we're saying here, And if it sounds a 0:07:16.520 --> 0:07:20.480 little weird that we're at once supporting and criticizing future ology, 0:07:20.600 --> 0:07:23.440 that's basically the fun thing to do when you talk 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:27.840 about future ology is um to criticize it and be 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:30.680 awed by it. Because a lot of times they really 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:36.280 are super right, that's right. Uh. Futurology has been around 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:39.520 for a long time. Um, I mean there since people 0:07:39.520 --> 0:07:43.240 were writing fiction, there were people predicting the future, but 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:48.280 as far as um things didn't really get going as 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:52.760 far as being meaningful until after World War Two, when 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:58.560 the US started developing technological forecasting. Basically, like it was 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:00.680 really important to try and see you where things were 0:08:00.720 --> 0:08:04.520 going militarily, right, because it was super expensive to develop 0:08:04.600 --> 0:08:08.080 new technologies. Uh, it could take a long time. So 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:10.760 they started thinking, hey, we need to get some people 0:08:10.760 --> 0:08:13.880 on board that can kind of hopefully predict where we're 0:08:13.880 --> 0:08:15.840 headed here so we can make the right decisions. Yeah, 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:18.000 because if it takes a really long time, like you said, 0:08:18.040 --> 0:08:20.800 to develop a weapon, by the time you have that 0:08:20.840 --> 0:08:24.840 weapon in deployed in the field, you're gonna need to 0:08:24.880 --> 0:08:27.600 know it's not already obsolete. The only way to do 0:08:27.640 --> 0:08:30.200 that is to predict what kind of warfare you're going 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:32.440 to be engaged in. Because this is a time, like 0:08:32.480 --> 0:08:34.720 at the end of World War two, so many inventions 0:08:34.760 --> 0:08:36.800 came out of World War one and two war machine 0:08:36.840 --> 0:08:40.320 inventions that that things were changing so quickly that there 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:44.160 was actually you can kind of put modern future ology 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:46.600 into the lap of one guy, an Air Force general 0:08:46.679 --> 0:08:50.800 named hap Arnold, who saw that things were changing so 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:54.880 fast that his air force needed to basically predict the 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:57.600 future and see what direction it needed to go. So 0:08:57.640 --> 0:08:59.920 he looked around and he started tapping people to do that. 0:09:00.120 --> 0:09:02.959 One of the first people he tapped as a scientist 0:09:03.320 --> 0:09:08.040 UM an aeronautical engineer named Theodore von Karmen. Yes, he 0:09:08.160 --> 0:09:10.520 was a super smart dude, UM, and he led a 0:09:10.520 --> 0:09:14.400 team that did predict a lot of stuff like drones. 0:09:15.200 --> 0:09:18.120 UM and as far as you know, the military using drones, 0:09:18.200 --> 0:09:21.559 not your uncle who flies it around the neighborhood to 0:09:21.600 --> 0:09:26.160 film stuff. He predicted the rise of Brookstone, UH, target 0:09:26.240 --> 0:09:31.400 seeking missiles, UM, supersonic aircraft, and even the atom bomb. 0:09:31.600 --> 0:09:35.000 All of this was in one report to hap Arnold, 0:09:35.480 --> 0:09:38.040 Like this is like and this guy knocked out of 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:41.559 the park. But um, he and his group were very 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:45.200 much limited to small academic and military circles. Like the 0:09:45.240 --> 0:09:47.920 general public wasn't aware that this was going on, but 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:54.479 his group. Von Karmen's groups so accurately foresaw the direction 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:59.160 that that modern warfare was going that you can very 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:01.400 also very resially make the case that you know, he 0:10:01.559 --> 0:10:03.920 basically created a roadmap to the future that the Air 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:08.520 Force followed. So is his prophecy were self fulfilling because 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:10.800 he said go this way, and the Air Force went 0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:14.120 that way and created all this stuff. Yeah, and then 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:19.640 the UM the military and uh well, the Brand Corporation specifically, 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:21.959 it grew out of the US Air Force and Douglass 0:10:22.000 --> 0:10:25.360 Aircraft in the mid forties. They said, well, having one 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:28.320 person to say these things was great, but what we 0:10:28.360 --> 0:10:32.160 need is a team and a consensus among this team. 0:10:32.280 --> 0:10:34.640 So they kind of, uh, well not kind of. They 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:38.559 very much patented a technique they called the Delphi uh 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:42.320 technique d E L p h I and that is 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:45.880 basically a technique where they're trying to get agreed on 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:50.440 consensus from a number of people. So there's there's this 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:54.720 very famous story about how UM the the Navy, I 0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:58.319 think lost a submarine, a nuclear submarine, or the Russians 0:10:58.360 --> 0:11:00.160 had lost the submarine something like that. There is a 0:11:00.200 --> 0:11:03.320 lost sub that they wanted to find and they had 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:06.920 no idea where it was. So the Navy pulled all 0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:11.079 these different UM, different experts and all these different fields 0:11:11.120 --> 0:11:16.800 that might have something to do with nuclear submarines, whether um, 0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:21.560 aeronautics uh, people from Noah, all these people right and 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:24.480 asked them where do you think the sub is? And 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:27.920 no one hit it on the nose. But when they 0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:32.480 when they basically used um uh statistical distribution of these 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:37.360 various opinions guesses of professionals, it led them right to 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:40.440 that sub And that's what the Delfi technique does too. 0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:44.280 It it takes opinions of experts in various fields and 0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:46.679 says what do you think of this? And everybody sends 0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:50.600 in a questionnaire and anonymously, and there's no group meetings, 0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:54.040 so the group doesn't bow to pressure, no leaders emerge. 0:11:54.320 --> 0:11:57.920 They're giving their unvarnished opinion. And then after the those 0:11:57.920 --> 0:12:01.440 opinions come in there they they take that information and 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:03.320 send it out again. So it goes in rounds and 0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:06.839 rounds and rounds until they finally come to a group 0:12:06.880 --> 0:12:10.040 consensus that in the future we're all going to be 0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:14.320 wearing metallic blue jumpsuits. Yeah. And what they're doing is 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:17.560 generating what's known as a scenario. And a guy named 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:21.319 Herman Kahn k h N worked with Brand in the 0:12:21.679 --> 0:12:24.320 nineteen fifties and he's the one that kind of coined 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:29.320 the term scenario as it applies to futurology. Uh. A 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:32.680 pretty good definition I found was a scenario is a 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:36.160 a detailed portrait of a plausible future world, one sufficiently 0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:40.160 vivid that a planner can clearly see and comprehend the problems, challenges, 0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:44.200 and opportunities that such an environment would present. So it's 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:48.400 it's you know, it's saying, uh uh. In the future, 0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:51.040 we're gonna have a scenario where they're going to be 0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:54.840 robots in every house. And one of the biggest ways 0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:58.560 that they work on scenarios is with something called bat casting, 0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:01.199 which is starting the end, which is you got a 0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:04.640 robot in every house, and then go backwards. How you 0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:07.200 got there? Yeah, how we how you got there? Yeah? 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:10.400 Makes sense? Yeah, and scenario. That's a pretty cool scenario. 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:13.880 They can also be as mundane as running a fire 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:17.760 drill um where you're envisioning the fire broke out in 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:21.400 the high school gym and so everybody needs to get out. 0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:23.520 That's a that's a scenario. It's as simple as that. 0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:28.280 There um the weather forecasts or economic forecasts that are 0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:32.840 run through computer algorithms. The computer algorithms the model. The 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:35.599 process that it's going through is the scenario, and it 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:38.600 spits out a possible prediction. It's almost like an effect 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:43.640 then cause right, yeah, yeah, excellently, thank you. Uh So 0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:46.080 Herman Cohn worked with Rand and uh and he had 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:48.360 did you look him up at all? Yeah, he's one 0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:51.800 of the inspirations for Dr Strangelove. He was described as 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:54.680 a super genius. Yeah, he was super smart and he 0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:57.360 um he kind of was a bit of a celebrity 0:13:57.400 --> 0:14:00.360 at the time. He wrote a book um in nineteen 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:03.640 sixty one called on thermon Nuclear War uh and then 0:14:03.679 --> 0:14:06.520 went on to form left Rand to form the Hudson Institute, 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:09.840 where he basically was like, we're a group that is 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:14.120 going to forecast the future. So he became It was 0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:16.920 like super popular book, and he spawned a lot of 0:14:16.920 --> 0:14:19.640 other books, similar books. We need to take a break, 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:22.360 but we're getting We'll get right back to this in 0:14:22.400 --> 0:14:40.360 a second. So, Chuck, you're just talking about Herman Kahn 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.960 being the super genius who was something of a celebrity. 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:47.200 I read that Timothy Leary animated that he had taken 0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:50.640 acid with him. I believe that he was a part 0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:53.320 of the inspiration for Dr. Strange love and this book 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:58.120 that he wrote called UM the the Year two thousand, 0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:02.320 a Framework for Speculation the next thirty three years. It 0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:08.000 basically established this outlook that UM that America and capitalism 0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:16.400 could do anything thanks to basically technological UM inventiveness. Yeah, 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:19.120 here's a let's hear some of these um. There was 0:15:19.160 --> 0:15:23.320 a list in that book, one hundred technical innovations very 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:27.040 likely in the last third of the twentieth century. Hundred 0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:33.720 Uh some of the first ten multiple applications of lasers, boom, 0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:40.480 high strength structural materials nailed it, wouldn't you think hallois Uh, 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:45.000 new or improved materials for equipment and appliances. Now that's 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:47.840 that's easy. Yeah, anyone can say that it would be 0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:54.240 better material and predict that now. Uh, longer range, longer 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:58.640 range weather forecasting, more reliable weather forecasting. No, I don't 0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:01.520 know about that one. I think that was us. How 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:05.520 about this here here are a few of the other ones. 0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:09.440 New techniques for cheap and reliable birth control for sure. Yeah. 0:16:09.560 --> 0:16:13.760 The pill I don't know if the pills around we 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:15.560 should do a whole thing may have been the same 0:16:15.640 --> 0:16:19.640 year because it came out in sixty seven, was it? Yeah? Uh, Well, 0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:22.720 This book came out in sixty seven, right, widespread use 0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:27.240 of nuclear reactors for power duh, improved capability to change 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:30.360 sex of a children or adult gender reassignment. We did 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:34.240 a great episode on that pervasive business use of computers. Yeah, 0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:37.920 they're all over personal pages. Yeah, they came in what 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:41.560 and then one of the other ones was home computers 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:44.520 to run households and communicate with the outside world. Yeah, 0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:47.360 the Internet of Things. Yeah. They also predicted, um, the 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:50.960 rise of the credit economy really yeah, that we currently 0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:54.160 are in interesting yeah, so um and that was just 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:58.160 like a list, like a sidebar basically in the book, 0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:00.480 in this book, but the whole, the whole idea that 0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:04.120 um America and capitalism in the West could invent its 0:17:04.119 --> 0:17:06.800 way out of any problem we possibly ran across in 0:17:06.800 --> 0:17:11.000 the future was the premise or the position of this book, 0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:16.280 and it caused an enormous fewer in academic circles, and 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:19.679 not just academic circles, because this book was one of 0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:21.919 the first to introduce to the public that there were 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:26.640 such things as think tanks like RAND and that. Yeah, 0:17:26.680 --> 0:17:29.920 and that these people were sitting there thinking about the 0:17:29.960 --> 0:17:32.159 future and we're writing books about it. And it kind 0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:34.760 of became a hit thing, But the Club of Rome 0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:39.640 was basically diametrically opposed to the UM the outlook that 0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:42.840 Herman Khan had and the Club of Rome was a 0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:47.000 business consortium that conspiracy theorist is basically the seat of 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:51.560 the new World Order. They are UM and the Club 0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:54.320 of Rome basically said, no, we were. We were establishing 0:17:54.359 --> 0:17:57.080 the gloom and doom camp that there's such thing as 0:17:57.200 --> 0:18:01.960 resource depletion, over population and we are basically doomed. Yeah, 0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:04.040 I mean we've we've covered this a lot on the show. 0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:07.000 Different people that have made wild predictions about We're gonna 0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:09.840 run out of this by this year. Thomas mathis, Yeah, 0:18:09.960 --> 0:18:12.800 very mauthusian. One of the books that came out of 0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:15.280 the Club of Rome UH in nineteen seventy two was 0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:19.520 called Limits to Growth by Danilla H. Meadows, Dennis Meadows, 0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:23.119 Jurgen Randers, and William Baron's at M I. T. And 0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:28.560 they had a very dire apocalyptic outlook of the future UM, 0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:30.240 as did a lot of other people at the time, 0:18:30.280 --> 0:18:34.560 and a lot of these were way off base. A 0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:37.399 lot of these dire predictions, you know, which happened over 0:18:37.440 --> 0:18:40.040 and over again. Yeah, and so on the Club of 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:44.360 Rome's website. They defend them The Limits to Growth. No, 0:18:44.480 --> 0:18:47.159 not the Limits to Growth, the UM Yeah, the Limits 0:18:47.200 --> 0:18:52.320 to Growth book, basically saying that it's often mis cited 0:18:52.359 --> 0:18:56.879 as predicting the collapse of civilization UM due to renewable 0:18:56.920 --> 0:19:00.960 resource um overuse, and it doesn't do that. But they 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:04.080 did use the same kind of techniques that Herman Kahn 0:19:04.200 --> 0:19:07.320 and some of his other colleagues were coming up with 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:14.359 by by taking population um information, food production data, industrial 0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:18.320 production pollution, and non renewable resource consumption and then running 0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:22.720 scenarios through this model that they built using computers and 0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:25.640 coming up the scenarios they came up with. We're kind 0:19:25.640 --> 0:19:29.439 of grim. The thing is is, even though they missed 0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:34.880 the mark, they still helped establish a very young idea 0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:38.159 that we we can't just you can't just throw your 0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:41.800 McDonald's styrofoam on the ground, You can't drive a car 0:19:41.880 --> 0:19:44.879 that gets two miles per gallon, like, we can't live 0:19:45.000 --> 0:19:49.280 like everything is just forever abundant, that there's no such 0:19:49.320 --> 0:19:52.720 thing as scarcity. Yeah, it's a double edged sword though, 0:19:52.760 --> 0:19:54.800 Like I totally agree, but then it also when you're 0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:59.080 wrong about these things, it gives cynics something point to say, well, 0:19:59.119 --> 0:20:02.200 she we didn't run to oil in the early nineteen eighties, 0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:05.000 like you said, we would do anything about it. Yeah, 0:20:05.080 --> 0:20:07.720 I mean, man, that is a great point. It's a 0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:10.240 it's a very great point. But at the same time, 0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:14.000 what you're seeing here between the limits to growth and 0:20:14.119 --> 0:20:18.080 the year two thousand um they we still see this 0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:22.119 today with climate change. You know, it's like, let's do 0:20:22.200 --> 0:20:24.679 something about climate change. The other people say, no, we 0:20:24.720 --> 0:20:26.480 can invent our way out of it. And besides, if 0:20:26.480 --> 0:20:28.840 we do something about climate change, it's gonna mess with 0:20:28.840 --> 0:20:32.480 the economy. And these people are saying, forget about the economy. 0:20:32.760 --> 0:20:35.640 We're all going to die, or not necessarily forget about 0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:38.479 the economy. But maybe you can do both, you know. 0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:41.600 You know, my whole deal with that has always been 0:20:41.920 --> 0:20:45.560 just like why why take that risk? Well, we humans 0:20:45.560 --> 0:20:49.359 aren't very good at like preparing for future risk, which 0:20:49.400 --> 0:20:51.440 is I think one of the reasons why future alogists 0:20:51.440 --> 0:20:55.640 are so revered and and odd but also mocked and scorned, 0:20:56.080 --> 0:20:59.080 because they're doing something that's almost almost flies in the 0:20:59.119 --> 0:21:02.520 face of human nature. Yeah, you're really putting yourself out 0:21:02.520 --> 0:21:06.159 there when you predict the stuff. Uh, that was one 0:21:06.200 --> 0:21:08.200 other episode that that just reminded me of the ten 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:12.960 thousand year clock. That was a great one. So um, 0:21:13.040 --> 0:21:16.399 the military, the United States military obviously has used it 0:21:16.440 --> 0:21:20.280 for years. Um then beginning uh when was this in 0:21:20.320 --> 0:21:24.040 the sixties or seventies that business got into it. So 0:21:24.119 --> 0:21:29.160 in V two, I think Royal Dutch Shell heard somebody 0:21:29.200 --> 0:21:31.120 at the top heard that there wasn't gonna be any 0:21:31.160 --> 0:21:36.040 oil in by five, and they went yeah. Businesses basically said, 0:21:36.160 --> 0:21:39.880 wait a minute, there are people that can actually use 0:21:40.000 --> 0:21:43.280 models to determine what the future might look like. How 0:21:43.320 --> 0:21:46.040 can we use that to make money. Well, let's throw 0:21:46.080 --> 0:21:48.800 money at him and find out exactly. A couple of 0:21:48.840 --> 0:21:53.080 other places to um that that were nascent think tanks 0:21:53.080 --> 0:21:56.760 and like grand was the Stanford Research Institute Futures Group 0:21:56.760 --> 0:22:01.720 in the California Institute of Technology. UM, early like kind 0:22:01.720 --> 0:22:07.000 of think tank breeding grounds, just smart people walking around 0:22:07.080 --> 0:22:09.760 thinking about the future. But that wasn't enough. Um, you 0:22:09.840 --> 0:22:12.399 can't just say this is what I think it's going 0:22:12.480 --> 0:22:15.040 to be like, you have to back it up. And 0:22:15.040 --> 0:22:16.840 we'll talk about how they back it up right after this. 0:22:32.760 --> 0:22:36.800 How do they back it up? Well, they use different techniques. 0:22:36.840 --> 0:22:39.399 If you're a futurist or a future ologist. You're going 0:22:39.480 --> 0:22:43.119 to be using techniques that um are pretty recognizable. But 0:22:43.160 --> 0:22:45.240 the way you put them together and the things you 0:22:45.359 --> 0:22:48.760 sort out, um, is what's going to make you successful 0:22:48.840 --> 0:22:52.360 or not successful. Right, So you're you like brainstorm ideas, Yeah, 0:22:52.359 --> 0:22:55.120 that's probably where you start. Yeah, just just like Blue 0:22:55.119 --> 0:22:58.880 Sky Territory as they say, yeah, you um imagine things 0:22:58.960 --> 0:23:02.840 using scenarios are games apparently game theory, but we got 0:23:02.840 --> 0:23:05.159 to do that at some point. Yeah, I've been avoiding it, 0:23:06.880 --> 0:23:10.600 like we could mess it up really bad, but we'll 0:23:10.640 --> 0:23:15.960 do it. Um. That that changed the the futurism feel 0:23:16.160 --> 0:23:18.760 tremendously when they came up with game theory, because it's 0:23:18.760 --> 0:23:21.920 a pretty good way of predicting how people will work. 0:23:21.960 --> 0:23:26.479 And that's one of the big confounding factors is you 0:23:26.520 --> 0:23:29.119 can predict something, follow every single one of these steps 0:23:29.160 --> 0:23:32.359 that we're talking about right now, um, and then people 0:23:32.400 --> 0:23:34.880 will just cut to the left all of a sudden, 0:23:35.480 --> 0:23:39.200 and your prediction just fell to the wayside because humanity 0:23:39.240 --> 0:23:42.719 went this way real quick. Or somebody invented a game changer, 0:23:43.520 --> 0:23:47.680 a game changing product or innovation that nobody saw coming. Yeah, 0:23:47.720 --> 0:23:51.680 what's that called disruptive technology, is it? Yeah, that's a 0:23:51.720 --> 0:23:54.360 good not like that, Uh, not a bad band name. 0:23:55.320 --> 0:23:57.560 Oh I wonder if it's not there. If so, it's 0:23:57.560 --> 0:24:00.800 made of like Silicon Valley, rich guy, it's like my 0:24:00.880 --> 0:24:05.080 side band. Right. Um, do you want to gather professional 0:24:05.080 --> 0:24:08.760 opinions using say the Delphi technique. You want to do 0:24:08.840 --> 0:24:13.480 historical analysis. Current trends are very huge and can help 0:24:13.520 --> 0:24:16.000 you as well. And then like you were saying, I 0:24:16.000 --> 0:24:22.560 think you call it back masking. No, that's uh, turn 0:24:22.680 --> 0:24:26.520 me on dead man, right, Yeah, that's what they do. 0:24:26.560 --> 0:24:30.639 They listen to the Beatles backwards. Uh where what it 0:24:30.760 --> 0:24:33.960 was it? It's not back masking, I know, but where 0:24:33.960 --> 0:24:36.760 they where you envision the future and then you work 0:24:36.800 --> 0:24:40.680 your way backwards from it. When you do this, you 0:24:40.840 --> 0:24:44.760