1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,640 Speaker 1: For this introduction, I need to go to a note 2 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:07,880 Speaker 1: which was codified in market economics long ago. It's C. J. Lawrence. 3 00:00:08,480 --> 00:00:11,720 Speaker 1: You had a headline, and then you had a subhead, 4 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: and then you had a chart. And it was of 5 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: course the discussion around the chart that led to the 6 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,759 Speaker 1: invention of modern market economics. And many people would say 7 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:24,079 Speaker 1: this began with ed Heheimen at CJ. Lawrence just a 8 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 1: few years ago. Ed. Let me get to your most 9 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:29,480 Speaker 1: recent note, coveted on Wall Street. Remember, folks, we protect 10 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:32,879 Speaker 1: the copyright of all of our guests. Get the Edheimen 11 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 1: note through Evercore Isi Edheimen. We're back in the old 12 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:41,879 Speaker 1: normal inflation range. Is it all clear on the Edheimen 13 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: front for Jerome Powell? 14 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 2: I wouldn't say it's all clear, but it's pretty dark clear. 15 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 3: It's clear enough for them to continue to pursue the pause. 16 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 3: Whether they cut in March it was a little early. 17 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 3: It might you'll want to wait another meeting or two. 18 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 3: But my strongest conviction is that inflation is slowing and 19 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 3: we'll continue to slow. You have rents, wages, but I 20 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:12,679 Speaker 3: don't want to overlook that there are some prices that 21 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 3: are going up like crazy. But in general, I think 22 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:20,840 Speaker 3: that inflation is coming down and time. As you know, 23 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 3: I have a warm spot, a warm spot in my 24 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:28,960 Speaker 3: heart Milton Friedman, and money growth has slowed down. 25 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 2: So I'm sort of following his right footsteps. 26 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 1: And I'm looking at shelter inflation as a part and 27 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 1: parcel the goofiness of are you've always ignored that you've 28 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 1: gone out for granular data and you feature mortgage rates 29 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:46,400 Speaker 1: coming down? Is the mortgage rates coming down from eight percent? 30 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:46,759 Speaker 3: Say? 31 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: Is it a linear function or is there a tip 32 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: point where home building becomes normal again? 33 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 3: It seems to be a tip point somewhere a little 34 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 3: bit above seven. Boy's race war eight, maybe a little 35 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 3: over eight, And now they're around seven. And all the 36 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 3: information that we have shows that housing has bounced back 37 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 3: pretty nicely. Even Tom, we're getting a little bit of 38 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 3: an improvement in rents, which surprises me. For three weeks, uh, 39 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:26,639 Speaker 3: we survey, the survey we've done of apartment companies has 40 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 3: picked up a little bit, right, excuse me? 41 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 1: Okay, we a love gasping on the show at Heimen. 42 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 1: I'm gasping when it's okay, you know, just and move. 43 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 4: On, Paul, Hey, save us and talk to us about 44 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 4: the labor market. I have been so amazed and surprised, 45 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 4: pleasantly so by the strength the resilience of the US 46 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 4: labor market. How do you put that into context with 47 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 4: everything else that's going on out there. 48 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 3: Well, economy is still pretty good. But I'm just I'm 49 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,359 Speaker 3: just telling you what you're just told me. It's pretty 50 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 3: good because. 51 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 2: The layer market is still pretty good. 52 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: YEP. 53 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 3: In about twenty five minutes, we'll get another reading for 54 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 3: unemplomba claims. But unemplumba claims are the government's best economic indicator, 55 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 3: and last week they fell below two hundred thousand. 56 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:20,119 Speaker 2: It was just incredible how low they are. 57 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:25,359 Speaker 3: And so until the lever market eases up a little bit, 58 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,360 Speaker 3: the FED is going to be reluctant to cut rates. 59 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 3: I think they'd be happy to be pausing because inflation 60 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 3: is coming down. 61 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 2: Now there are I thought. 62 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 3: You were going to say that you've been surprised at 63 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 3: how much wages have slowed given how strong labor markets are. 64 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 3: But there are some signs that the lever markets are 65 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 3: easing out. For example, the basebook came out last week, 66 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 3: and like some others, it showed some easing in the 67 00:03:55,120 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 3: labor markets, and we survey employment agencies every week like 68 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 3: a manpower ink yep. And they and they have reported 69 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 3: a clear easing up in the labor market and in 70 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:17,719 Speaker 3: wages and a measured by Indeed, a labor market company 71 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 3: has showed a waits tracker has come from five and 72 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 3: a half down to three and a half. There's a 73 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 3: lot of signs that labor has eased, but not enough. 74 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 3: I'm not I guess I guess I've been I'm not 75 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 3: sure shocked, but I've been surprised. But whatever it is, 76 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 3: it's the key. You've got to get labor to ease 77 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 3: up some to get the economy to. 78 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 2: Slow down more than it has usual. 79 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 3: Employment increases have slowed from about five hundred thousand a month, 80 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:51,360 Speaker 3: they were increasing five hundred thousand a month. In the 81 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:55,359 Speaker 3: past three months they've been about one seventy. So you know, 82 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 3: it's like you know, watching a frog cook and a. 83 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 2: They don't notice it, but I notice it. A wonderful. 84 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:08,679 Speaker 1: With us here evercore I I We're going to continue. 85 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:11,359 Speaker 1: We are commercial free. Don't don't go away, ed, we 86 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 1: are commercial free across this entire hour. Lukashaw to join 87 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:18,280 Speaker 1: us on the side of the economic data here, but 88 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: on YouTube and on card play. We're thrilled to bring 89 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 1: you Ed Hyman this morning, Paul Sweeney. 90 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 4: So, Ed, can we officially take I don't know, for 91 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 4: the remainder of twenty twenty four, can we take the 92 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 4: recession talk off the table? I've had enough of this. 93 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:32,279 Speaker 4: How about you? 94 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:37,599 Speaker 3: Well, I probably have been giving you a problem on this, 95 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 3: but I don't think so. 96 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 2: I appreciate the question, and let me give you my 97 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 2: best shot. 98 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:50,559 Speaker 3: So the yel curve has worked seven times, six times 99 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 3: in a row. Every time you've had a recession, the 100 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 3: curse been inverted. So I'm just saying that we've had 101 00:05:55,560 --> 00:06:00,920 Speaker 3: extreme monetary titan. Now it's taken eighteen months for that 102 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 3: to work, so long that by the time you get 103 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 3: to like month fourteen, all you and I want to 104 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 3: say is like, get out of here. It's not going 105 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:14,239 Speaker 3: to happen. It's different this time, but they'll covered verted. 106 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:21,479 Speaker 3: For example, in the summurb of six and the recession 107 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 3: didn't start until eight eighteen months later, so we still 108 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 3: have another four months and if we can stand it. 109 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:31,599 Speaker 3: But I guess the main thing I'm trying to say 110 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 3: from a practical point of view is that I think 111 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 3: the economy is in. 112 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:38,720 Speaker 2: A slowing pattern. I mentioned deplument increases slowing. 113 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 3: And so I could continue to be part of Tom's 114 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 3: thought process. Our company surveys have slowed. They were we 115 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 3: survey companies and zero to one hundred and fifty is 116 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 3: in the middle. And the surveys two years ago were 117 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 3: sixty one and last week there were forty nine. 118 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,919 Speaker 1: And I want to digress over to your wonderful page 119 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 1: in your research note on China and what ed heymen does, folks, 120 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 1: And this is textbook at Himen as he looks at 121 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 1: the equity market and all the media overwhelm of the 122 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 1: hang singing, the indecks, the Hong Kong Index and the 123 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 1: Shanghai composite, and you bring it right over ed hein 124 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: to the decline and interest rates in China. Are they 125 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 1: going to export a new low yield? Are they going 126 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 1: to export disinflation? 127 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 2: Wow? 128 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 1: In deflation to the United States? 129 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 2: Well, I was you got me there. I was going 130 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 2: in a different direction. 131 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 3: But let me explain their yields, like you point out, 132 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 3: have been making new lows and that helps explain why 133 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 3: US yields have been pretty quiet. And also the waightness 134 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 3: in China has helped explain why commodity prices have been weak. 135 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 3: And it's been pretty clear to me that China has 136 00:07:56,080 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 3: been exporting at least disinflation or slow inflation, and in 137 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 3: some cases deflation. There's a lot of news in the 138 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 3: papers a day about lithium prices which are down eighty percent, 139 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 3: and so there's you're right, they're exporting either disinflation or deflation. 140 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 3: But also if you go back to the George Soros reflexivity, 141 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 3: which is that when something can't go on forever, it doesn't, 142 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 3: And there's a chance that we've reached that point in 143 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:35,839 Speaker 3: China this week with their cut in the triple r 144 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 3: and so the stock market there has rallied almost ten percent. 145 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:47,800 Speaker 3: And this morning the price of oil, the WTI in 146 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:51,199 Speaker 3: the US is up to about forty six dollars. It 147 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 3: was in the low forties. 148 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 4: So so anyway, so, I mean, you know, that kind 149 00:08:58,280 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 4: of brings up a good point when to follow on 150 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 4: Tom's rushing here. If we've got China slower than people anticipated, 151 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 4: if we've got Europe weaker than people would like to see, 152 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,719 Speaker 4: particularly Germany, I mean, boy, you see, the challenge is 153 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:13,320 Speaker 4: there can the US be that decoupled from the rest 154 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:16,599 Speaker 4: of the world and being a growth marketplace when so 155 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 4: much of the rest of the world is, you know, 156 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 4: if not in recession, darned close to it. 157 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 3: No Ala grease Band, who enjoyed being inscrutable, but he 158 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 3: also coined some pretty good thoughts, one of which in 159 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 3: the late nineties was that the US cannot be an 160 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 3: oasis of prosperity. And that's what we have now. I 161 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 3: think you're correctly pointing that out. And the data this 162 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:52,559 Speaker 3: morning out of Europe is weak. We also survey companies 163 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:56,079 Speaker 3: that have sales week in Europe and that survey is 164 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:56,959 Speaker 3: about thirty two. 165 00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:01,319 Speaker 2: The US Copparable survey it's forty nine, to put it 166 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 2: in perspective. 167 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:06,959 Speaker 3: And then over in China, our survey there is about 168 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:11,560 Speaker 3: thirty two, and so that gives the world economy, you know, 169 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 3: a soft inclination. But like I mentioned this morning, because 170 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 3: I live up right on the edge, the news out 171 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:24,679 Speaker 3: of China is a little bit better. I mentioned, all 172 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 3: prices have bounced up a little bit, and there's not 173 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 3: market has bounced up a little bit. So I can't 174 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 3: tell if if this triple R cut, this week is 175 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 3: the beginning of a real serious effort. They've had some 176 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 3: false starts before, but it's a move in the right 177 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 3: direction and we'll see if it bears fruit. 178 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:45,079 Speaker 1: Tim and I want you to talk about one of 179 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 1: the great fears. You're harken back the nineties, and I'd 180 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 1: even take it back to mister Isaacs in the eighties 181 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 1: as well. In the zeitgeist of American global Wall Street, 182 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:58,560 Speaker 1: there is a real fear of our small banks linked 183 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 1: in to bad res estate loans. Is it a legitimate fear? 184 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 1: Is this something that we need to study or is 185 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:06,920 Speaker 1: it noise? 186 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 2: It's not noise. So every week. 187 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 3: On Friday afternoon, I get the Gumma data on bank 188 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 3: deposits and they are going down. They're down about two 189 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:25,679 Speaker 3: or three percent, which is the biggest drop since the 190 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 3: nineteen thirties, which is a sobering. 191 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:29,439 Speaker 2: Point by itself. 192 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 3: So I guess back the bank deposits are essentially the 193 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 3: money supply. It's eighty five percent of the money supply. 194 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:41,440 Speaker 3: So it's if you've got to watch it. This is 195 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:48,440 Speaker 3: my thirteenth bed tightening cycle. So I'm not this is 196 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 3: I'm a I'm a gnarl veteran of these cycles and 197 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 3: right every single one of them has had financial shocks 198 00:11:59,480 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 3: or crisis. 199 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:03,960 Speaker 2: And so the one we had earlier this year, earlier 200 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 2: last year. 201 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:09,559 Speaker 3: Excuse me, was SBB and the small banks having the 202 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 3: deposit run of their deposits. 203 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:15,720 Speaker 2: That was a shock crisis. 204 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 3: And I think we're probably gonna yet another one before 205 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 3: this is over, okay. 206 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 1: And I got one last thought here before we let 207 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 1: you go. And this is great respect for what folks. 208 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 1: I can't say enough. And I understand Sweeney and McKee 209 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:31,839 Speaker 1: and Lisa are too young for this. But we used 210 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 1: to actually get printed research reports, and you would wait 211 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,599 Speaker 1: on Tuesday to get the CJ. Lawrence Greenbook and it 212 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 1: would come out. It was Edjimen, and then a guy 213 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 1: named Ed yard Denny picked it up. Edjimen, do you 214 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 1: have the yard Denny optimism? The corporations will adapt that 215 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 1: we will see a ten fifteen to twenty percent lift 216 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 1: in the Yard Denny duration of stock prosperity in America 217 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 1: getting out to what now fort dout forty five thousand. 218 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:07,560 Speaker 1: Do you share that optimism with the gentleman from Yale University? 219 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:12,439 Speaker 3: I don't, but I like Ed Yardini a lot and 220 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 3: I follow his work. I follow his thinking. I respect him. 221 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 2: When I left C. J. Lawrence, he replaced me. I'm happy. 222 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 2: So you know, the world goes around. 223 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 3: But I really do think about what he's thinking about, 224 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 3: and it goes back to, you know, some thoughts about 225 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:37,680 Speaker 3: the nineteen thirties. 226 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:42,199 Speaker 2: As I mentioned, I think monetary tightening. 227 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 3: Is extremely strong right now, monetary tightening, and that keeps 228 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 3: me away. 229 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:48,080 Speaker 2: At the moment. 230 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 3: My view and our house view is that the market's 231 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:57,560 Speaker 3: going out, and that's because inflation's coming down. 232 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:00,320 Speaker 2: Defense on pause, and economy is still fight. 233 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 3: But I would guess, and Paul you are needling me 234 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,320 Speaker 3: a little bit there on the recession of the story, 235 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:09,079 Speaker 3: but I think the economy can get weaker, Arnies will 236 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 3: go down, and then it'll be a fight between declining 237 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 3: earnings and the FED cutting interest rates. 238 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 1: Edheiman, thank you so much.