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Speaker 1: This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up,

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Speaker 1: straight far, fam, It's me Jason McIntyre, Straight Fired. For Friday,

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Speaker 1: November eight, Folks, is a big Friday. This is a

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Speaker 1: huge one, huge, enormous, massive, perhaps the biggest Friday of

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Speaker 1: the football season. Why is that, Well, besides the fact

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Speaker 1: that we have a great guest, we have one of

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Speaker 1: my predictions that I dropped here on the podcast, I

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Speaker 1: believe right around Halloween comes true with the Packers losing

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Speaker 1: last night, and it is the eve of a massive

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Speaker 1: college football game out here on the West Coast U

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Speaker 1: s C, U C l A. And as if that

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Speaker 1: wasn't enough, the World Cup starts Sunday. I'm just so geeked,

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Speaker 1: I'm so stoked. I'm fired up. I cannot Maybe it's

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Speaker 1: coming through through the podcast. I I can envision you

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Speaker 1: listening in your call, are getting giddy. Even if you

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Speaker 1: don't love soccer. It's the freaking World Cup. It's once

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Speaker 1: every four years. The US is actually in it this year.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how long we're going to

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Speaker 1: be in it, but they're in it, and it's like exciting.

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Speaker 1: Even if you're not a massive soccer fan. I know

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Speaker 1: you'd like the World Cup. But first a couple of

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Speaker 1: orders of business. Number one, the guest today Jake Cornigae

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Speaker 1: Sports Book in the super Book I'm sorry, super Book

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Speaker 1: at Westgate in Vegas. Uh, one of the pillars of

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Speaker 1: the gambling community in Vegas. He's great. He gives some actionable, insightful,

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Speaker 1: fun peek behind the curtain for all the NFL games

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Speaker 1: this weekend. I think I'll come out of it looking

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Speaker 1: pretty good because I think I'm on some sides that

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Speaker 1: he agrees with. Of course, I am a Jets fan,

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Speaker 1: so we'll get to that one. But I think you're

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Speaker 1: gonna love the interview. It ran a little bit long,

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Speaker 1: but listen to it all. Uh, some good kernels of

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Speaker 1: wisdom in there. I think you guys are really gonna

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Speaker 1: like it. And then, of course, at the end of

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Speaker 1: the podcast bets best best bets for the NFL, I'll

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Speaker 1: give you a U S C U C L A

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Speaker 1: bet and a couple of World Cup futures bets that

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Speaker 1: I made. Now, if you are following me on the Graham,

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Speaker 1: you've got a couple of these World Series future world

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Speaker 1: World Series World Cup futures, and you've got a college

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Speaker 1: basketball winner last night. Yeah, I'm sliding in some college

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Speaker 1: hoops now. It's the holiday season, so when I'm not

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Speaker 1: with the family, I'm grinding um trying to get down.

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Speaker 1: There's just so much sports happening. One thing is I

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Speaker 1: barely checked any NBA. I don't even know if an

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Speaker 1: NBA games happened last night. Obviously they did, but it's weird,

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Speaker 1: like there's just so much happening. It's tough to really

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Speaker 1: get fired up about the association. Yeah, three games on

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Speaker 1: this like, oh kaw, while Leonard returned, I'd give a ship.

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Speaker 1: Come on, I'm so over that guy. Anyways, let's get

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Speaker 1: two Titans, packers and folks, it's over for green Bay.

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Speaker 1: Four and seven too far behind the Vikings to mount

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Speaker 1: a rally. The worst part of this of this is

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Speaker 1: like they actually did a great job against Derrick Henry.

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Speaker 1: Are you ready for this? Derrick Henry had eight carries,

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Speaker 1: not one of them went for ten yards. One they

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Speaker 1: bottled him up twenty carries eight seven yards, So who

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Speaker 1: beat him? Ryan Tanna Thrill, Well, Derrick Henry did have

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Speaker 1: a touchdown pass on that Tim Tebow jump pass thing

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Speaker 1: kind of cool, But Ryan Tannehill was shredding. He made

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Speaker 1: one late interception that kept the door briefly a jar

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Speaker 1: for the Packers. But Tannehill was outstanding thirty three yards

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Speaker 1: I mean twelve point three yards per pass. I can't

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Speaker 1: give out all the fantasy advice that I want to.

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Speaker 1: I texted him to my brother and a couple other buddies,

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Speaker 1: but I advised picking up Traylon Burke's last week because

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Speaker 1: he had been missing for a time and Ryan Tannehill

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Speaker 1: had been like kind of out the last a couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks. He wasn't really a factor. I thought Burks

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Speaker 1: would have a chance here, and he had seven catches

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Speaker 1: for a hundred eleven yards cooked and I mean roasted,

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Speaker 1: Jayra Alexander Layton the game. I mean Tannehill had uh

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Speaker 1: passes over twenty yards to Burke's Robert Woods, dar Rick Henry,

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Speaker 1: It's some guy whose name I can't even pronounce, Oko Kawanu.

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Speaker 1: And then Westbrook a ken A had a nineteen yard

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Speaker 1: or like green Bay just got torched. This was holly

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Speaker 1: embarrassing for the Packers defense, my goodness, but I had

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Speaker 1: think you have to save the real criticism, whether you

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Speaker 1: watched or didn't, for Aaron Rodgers. Now, if you did

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Speaker 1: not watch, you're just like, oh, Rogers, it's a little

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Speaker 1: pedestrian check down, Charlie. Not a great game. If you

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Speaker 1: actually watched, he was way off on some throws. So

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Speaker 1: usually Aaron Rodgers back in the pocket, maybe he's off

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Speaker 1: his back foot. He's just flinging it around out there,

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Speaker 1: and this is what he does. And he's drilling it

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Speaker 1: right on point to Davante Adams and company. Folks. Ah,

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Speaker 1: I was stunned. He was like three four five yards

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Speaker 1: off on some passes. Through on a key fourth down

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Speaker 1: he had Lazard and it was it was a throw

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Speaker 1: across his body. But Aaron Rodgers makes that in his

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Speaker 1: sleep for the last decade, and it was behind Lozard.

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Speaker 1: It's hard could have caught it but didn't. And then

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Speaker 1: a final two or three drives. I'm like, dude, this

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Speaker 1: is not the end Rodgers that I know. I don't know, guys,

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Speaker 1: this is a bad look for Rogers. Five point eight

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Speaker 1: yards per attempt. I'm done with A. J. Dillon. I

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Speaker 1: can't believe I started that guy in fantasy. He he

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Speaker 1: does never get the ball and he's running with a

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Speaker 1: piano on his back. Six carries thirteen yards. Uh. Watson

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Speaker 1: had another couple of touchdowns. He's a good player. But

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Speaker 1: this Packers team, wow, what a letdown. I mean you'll

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Speaker 1: start pointing around, like do they do they toss Jordan

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Speaker 1: Love out there for a couple of games and we

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Speaker 1: suddenly get to hear all of a sudden, you know,

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Speaker 1: one of these NFL insiders, Aaron Rodgers is getting an

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Speaker 1: m R I today on fill in the blank. Oh yeah,

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Speaker 1: well he was hurt, he was banged up. You know,

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Speaker 1: it feels like that's coming. That's how bad Rogers was.

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Speaker 1: On Thursday night football Packers lose by ten and folks,

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Speaker 1: they're they're not going to the playoffs. It's over right

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Speaker 1: around Halloween, your boy, that's me came on this podcast

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Speaker 1: and I said two of the following three teams are

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Speaker 1: gonna miss the laoffs. Degree May Packers, I have to date.

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Speaker 1: Actually it was Halloween, October thirty one. The Rams, Packers,

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Speaker 1: and Bucks. Two of these teams are going to miss

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. The Rams they lost Cooper Cup last week,

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Speaker 1: they were missing Stafford. They're done. Green May Packers with this.

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Speaker 1: They the season had life after the wind, unbelievable come

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Speaker 1: back when he gets the Cowboys, They're now done. At

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Speaker 1: four and seven. It's over. There is no rallying from

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Speaker 1: this deficit. Tampa Bay will probably make the playoffs because

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Speaker 1: the division is awful, but this is the worst part

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Speaker 1: for Green Bay folks. Their next game, it's against the

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Speaker 1: Eagles on the road. After that, Bears Rams, those should

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Speaker 1: be wins. They have to go to Miami. The way

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Speaker 1: Miami's playing, we'll call that a loss. They've got the

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Speaker 1: rematch of the Vikings. So even if they won the

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Speaker 1: rest of their games one, two, three, four, or five six,

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Speaker 1: all that does is get them to ten and seven.

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Speaker 1: The New York Giants and the Cowboys are eclipsing ten

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Speaker 1: wins for sure. So then the question becomes, well, who's

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Speaker 1: the other team? Well, you know, folks, it could be

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Speaker 1: the Washington Commanders, who have a burden in hand because

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Speaker 1: they beat the Packers. The Packers are done. It's over.

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Speaker 1: Season complete. They went from third team wins three seasons

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Speaker 1: in a row to missing the playoffs. I don't think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna overtake the Commanders, and Seattle is probably the

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Speaker 1: team to try to overtake anyway. So you're telling me

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Speaker 1: they're who who Are they gonna pass go Look at

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Speaker 1: the schedules. Is Green gig Bag gonna pass Seattle? Are

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Speaker 1: they gonna pass Washington? Are they gonna pass the Giants?

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Speaker 1: Are they gonna pass Dallas? They're gonna pass four? One

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Speaker 1: of those four? Just to get in the discussion, right,

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Speaker 1: four division winners, three wild card. I don't see it

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Speaker 1: for the Packers, guys, I don't schedule is tough. I

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Speaker 1: don't see from Aaron Rodgers, it's going to be back

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Speaker 1: to the drawing board for Aaron Rodgers on the Green

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Speaker 1: Bay Packers. Boy, that fall happens quickly, all right, without

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Speaker 1: further ado, Let's get to our guests. He is Jake

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Speaker 1: Hornegan from the sports book at Westgate in Vegas. Jason

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Speaker 1: likes to think he knows everything when it comes to sports.

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Speaker 1: I know what sports stands want, But for everything he doesn't.

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Speaker 1: He knows a guy who does. Let's just say I

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Speaker 1: know a guy who knows a guy who knows another guy. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's welcome into straight fire. A guy you know. If

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Speaker 1: you've been gambling, you've been Vegas, you definitely know this guy.

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Speaker 1: He is at the super book at Westgate, one of

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Speaker 1: the biggest names in Vegas, setting the lines, all the

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Speaker 1: stuff behind the counter, Jake Corner, g j How you

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Speaker 1: doing good, Jason, how's it going? It's going excellent. You

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Speaker 1: know I caught you a perfect time of recording this Thursday.

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Speaker 1: We always record our big Our Friday podcast is the

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Speaker 1: biggest because Thursday we talked about the NFL almost exclusively.

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Speaker 1: I'll give out best bets, and we just had a

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Speaker 1: big venue change for this Buffalo Cleveland game. The snow

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Speaker 1: what are they calling it, Snowmageddon and Buffalo multiple feet

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Speaker 1: of snow has forced the Bills and Browns to move

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Speaker 1: the game to Detroit. So you go from the elements

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Speaker 1: outdoors and the snow indoors. Jay, there's a lot of angles.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious. You know people are betting these games all week,

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Speaker 1: and how do you guys at the super Book handle

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Speaker 1: this game now that there's a venue change. Well, my

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Speaker 1: first thought when you asked that question is I gotta

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Speaker 1: tell everybody check your local book. You know, the rules

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Speaker 1: will vary book to book, and in a lot of cases,

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Speaker 1: their action no matter where they're playing, And there there

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Speaker 1: are others that will y fund those first bets and

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Speaker 1: you'll have to replace your bets because the venue has

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Speaker 1: changed for us. You know, we changed this a couple

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Speaker 1: of years ago, um, and just to out of the

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Speaker 1: convenience for the betters. And you're not going to satisfy everybody, Jason,

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Speaker 1: but in our in our world, it seemed to work

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Speaker 1: best for us to keep bets action. So no matter

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Speaker 1: where it's played, all right, because sometimes they would play

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Speaker 1: in another arena across town or you know something that

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Speaker 1: really what really didn't make a difference. What what we're

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Speaker 1: seeing here, I mean from outside the inside. The total

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Speaker 1: actually is the one that's been affected the most. The

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Speaker 1: spread is relatively the same, um, but um, the total

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Speaker 1: is the big adjustment. Because we opened forty six and

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Speaker 1: a half, got bet all the way down to forty

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Speaker 1: two and a half. And I shouldn't say bet down,

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Speaker 1: but the market moved down. We took some bets on

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Speaker 1: the under close at forty two and a half there

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Speaker 1: and now the venue has changed and now it's forty

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Speaker 1: eight and a half. But to clarify, we want to

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Speaker 1: make sure that everybody knows that they betted at the

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Speaker 1: super Book. You do have action because it's uh as

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Speaker 1: long as it's played within eight day is no matter

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Speaker 1: where it's played, you have action. So you guys are

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Speaker 1: opening yourselves up for a fairly large middle here. Somebody

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Speaker 1: got you know, forty two. Uh, and now it's at

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Speaker 1: forty eight a half. I mean, there's a good ship.

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Speaker 1: I think forty four is one of the most popular

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Speaker 1: total numbers, right, So I mean, what what's the potential

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Speaker 1: scare here for the for the sports book? How how?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how much you can reveal

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Speaker 1: at this point, but um, is this is this a

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Speaker 1: massive problem for you guys? Nah, it's no, there's no

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Speaker 1: problem for us. I mean, you know, it's uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: most of the action, it's not gonna really come in

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Speaker 1: until let's say, you know, during the weekend. I'd say

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Speaker 1: majority of it will come in the last three days.

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Speaker 1: So we're well ahead of that. There were some early

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Speaker 1: bets on there, and I'm sure that some made out

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Speaker 1: and have a better number now and some might be

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Speaker 1: on the short end. But that goes back to my statement.

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Speaker 1: It's like, we can't you know, satisfy everybody, but we

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Speaker 1: do try to make it fair. It's in the it's

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Speaker 1: in the print that rules, and it's something that's uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, what's posted well before this, so it's not

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Speaker 1: something that we're making up as we fly. Okay, Jay,

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Speaker 1: I want to go through, uh the games, A couple

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Speaker 1: of the big ones. Uh. The game I want to

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Speaker 1: start with is Philadelphia at Indianapolis, and you know, it's

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Speaker 1: a fascinating game. Colt with the cover last week with

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Speaker 1: Jeff Saturday in Vegas Philadelphia. Obviously everybody watched that Island

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Speaker 1: game and they lose at home. So you know, we

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Speaker 1: talk a lot about the look aheadline here. Um, I'm

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Speaker 1: seeing it was anywhere nine and a half to ten

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Speaker 1: before what before last week's results. Then it comes out

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Speaker 1: and I'm seeing six and a half all week and

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Speaker 1: it looks like today somebody hit it. Now we know

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Speaker 1: limits go up on Thursdays. Um, how do you handle

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Speaker 1: this because it seems like a lot of people like, oh,

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Speaker 1: I gotta take the Colt here. Eagles are exposed, They've

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Speaker 1: got injuries and all Dallas Goddard is out in Jordan

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Speaker 1: Davis and wait, they just signed in Dominican Sue and

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Speaker 1: all that's suff feels like noise. I'm on Philadelphia here

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Speaker 1: and pretty confidently, so did you get six and a half?

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Speaker 1: I did nice? Okay, I know there's some news. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they signed a couple of guys over the last two days,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's probably why it stopped going down.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we opened nine and a half right now,

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Speaker 1: open nine and a half and forty three and a half, um,

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Speaker 1: and it got down to six and a half. But

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Speaker 1: now we're back up to seven. And I think that

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Speaker 1: seven that market just moved because of the signings and

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Speaker 1: all that. But um, so far, I'm looking at it,

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Speaker 1: it's like sixty percent of the bets are on the

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Speaker 1: Colts here right here we go that other discussion that

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Speaker 1: we're talking about. Uh, you know, I'm looking at you

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Speaker 1: know about now we do have some sharp play here

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Speaker 1: on the Colts. You know, I think they took it early. Um,

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Speaker 1: and uh, they got those early numbers. Let's just let

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Speaker 1: me just double check that here Jay's and yeah, it

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Speaker 1: looks like they took um, they took that eight and

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Speaker 1: a half and eight. That's where the sharp play came in.

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Speaker 1: And when you say sharp play just for the audience,

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Speaker 1: is that um, respected betters or just large early week

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Speaker 1: bets are respected betters. You know, we know who's very

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Speaker 1: good and you know the NFL arena, and you know

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Speaker 1: some of those guys are you know they could bet

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Speaker 1: five thousand, they could bet ten thousand. Uh. You know,

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Speaker 1: we have you know, some great house players that play

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Speaker 1: fifty or a hundred thousand. We might not even move

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Speaker 1: the line, but you get one of those respected players,

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Speaker 1: sharp players. Uh, they can bet five ten dollars and

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Speaker 1: we're moving that line based off the reputation. So you

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Speaker 1: you gave out an interesting number sixty eight percent on

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Speaker 1: the colts. Now, we talked before we started recording about

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Speaker 1: UM bet splits and how people you know, listen, there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of new people gambling, right, there's gambling ads

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Speaker 1: are everywhere. They're given away literally giving away money to

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Speaker 1: get you to bet it. And a lot of people

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Speaker 1: are you know, not doing all the homework. They don't

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Speaker 1: you know, they're not, as you would say, a respected

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Speaker 1: gambler and they see, Wow, sixty eight percent on the colts.

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Speaker 1: Huh now is that? UM? Is that a significant number?

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Speaker 1: Sixty eight Now for what if it were eighty six?

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Speaker 1: We're talking about a public underdog here at six? UM,

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Speaker 1: how do you j having worked in the industry forever,

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Speaker 1: what what does sixty percent mean to you? UM? On

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Speaker 1: a game like this and on this specific day, you

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Speaker 1: know that that's sixty percent would mean maybe something different

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Speaker 1: if we were talking an hour before kickoff, you know,

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Speaker 1: I mean, the public really doesn't bet it until we

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Speaker 1: get to the weekend. And so when we talk about

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Speaker 1: sixty of the beds, it's probably more or less but

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Speaker 1: mostly educated play because they're the ones that jump on

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Speaker 1: it early. They're they're the ones that already have done

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Speaker 1: their homework. Uh so, uh, we're looking at a majority

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Speaker 1: of that sixty eight percent would fall under the category

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Speaker 1: of educated play because of the day we're talking. We're

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Speaker 1: talking here on Thursday. Again, if it was more let's

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Speaker 1: say an hour before kickoff, Um, then you're you're encompassing

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Speaker 1: all the public play, and then that percentage is gonna

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Speaker 1: mean it I mean something different. So you know, and

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Speaker 1: I know people have harped on this and this is

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Speaker 1: what we were talking about just a little while ago.

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Speaker 1: But when you know, we send this information out, I

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Speaker 1: personally send this information out, like sixty eight percent of

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Speaker 1: the bets are on you know the colds, um, and

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Speaker 1: people go, oh, you know that's not you know, handicapping information. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're right, I agree with you, Uh, it's more. It's more.

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Speaker 1: It's more or less uma entertainment information. Okay, Now do

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Speaker 1: some people use that to handicap Sure? I mean if

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Speaker 1: I were to look at that at six on a

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Speaker 1: Thursday and I was like, wow, okay, I can understand

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Speaker 1: that majority of the early play educated play is on Indianapolis.

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Speaker 1: Does that help you? Well, I guess that on is

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Speaker 1: that case? The case basis right? And I agree with

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Speaker 1: you that is interesting entertainment news. Now, what's more likely

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Speaker 1: to get pick up if you say sixty of the

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Speaker 1: people are on the colts or you say nothing? Right, Obviously,

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Speaker 1: that that's an interesting nugget. Wait a minute. The Eagles,

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Speaker 1: they they were undefeated. People were just talking about they

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Speaker 1: go seventeen or no, and now everybody's on the colts again.

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Speaker 1: Like it doesn't not everything has to be actionable, but

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Speaker 1: that I think is one of the big divides between

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Speaker 1: these like hardcore live and die through gambling versus people

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Speaker 1: who are doing it recreationally. Right. Sure, And like I said,

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Speaker 1: we're looking at this number on a Thursday, um, and

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Speaker 1: I think that number is going to change by the

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Speaker 1: time we get the kickoff, because where are they gonna

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Speaker 1: play well, the public okay, the general betting public. Let's

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Speaker 1: face it, um normally migrate to the perceived better team

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Speaker 1: or the better team in this case the Eagles, right,

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Speaker 1: So they most likely are going to bet the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: So by the time we get to kick off, I

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Speaker 1: can see that number being very close to Really, Now,

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Speaker 1: if you were to guess by kickoff which side of

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Speaker 1: seven this closes on, would you guess Jay seven and

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Speaker 1: a half or six and a half? And what would

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Speaker 1: you base that on? Maybe betting patterns, um, whatever. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think we already hit the low point here on

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Speaker 1: this game because we went from nine and a half

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Speaker 1: down to six and a half. Now it's migrating back up. Okay.

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Speaker 1: I would expect it to be on the high side

340
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Speaker 1: because even though we don't really move it on public

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Speaker 1: play unless it's very lopsided, you know, it depends on,

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Speaker 1: you know, what we're seeing on the other side. We

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Speaker 1: could see some respected play coming on Saturday. You know,

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Speaker 1: it really is on a case to case basis, and

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Speaker 1: and and how we move these things. You know, there's

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Speaker 1: ten things that go through your head every time you

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Speaker 1: move a game. There's there's a lot of different things

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Speaker 1: that we're looking at in this ace. You know, we

349
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Speaker 1: might not move it even though the entire betting public

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Speaker 1: is on the Eagles, because we've got some respect to

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Speaker 1: play on the colts. You guys, are one of the

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Speaker 1: books that actually takes respected bets. A lot of the

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Speaker 1: other ones, you know, they just will turn these guys away.

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Speaker 1: So how how do you handle being a market leader

355
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Speaker 1: or sticking to your guns? Like, let's say another book

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Speaker 1: goes to seven and a half, but you're like, I'm

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Speaker 1: not going there, I'm sticking on seven. How do you

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Speaker 1: guys handle that? Behind the scenes, Well, we have like

359
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Speaker 1: over a hundred years of bookmaking experience in our back room.

360
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Speaker 1: You know, we got guys like you know, Jeff Sherman

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Speaker 1: and Salmons and you know John Murray and myself. You know,

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Speaker 1: we we have a lot of experience, and we don't

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Speaker 1: make the right calls every time, Okay, but I think

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Speaker 1: we we most of our calls are pretty solid. Um

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Speaker 1: So when we're book making these things, um again, we're

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Speaker 1: really dissecting the type of money more than the amount

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Speaker 1: of money. Um. So, we were always looking at you

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Speaker 1: know what side the most respected players are on. Uh

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Speaker 1: we we I could probably go right down the list

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Speaker 1: and tell you, Jason, I know where the betting public

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Speaker 1: is gonna go. So do you know where the I

372
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,159
Speaker 1: guess the question, do you know where the respected betters

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Speaker 1: are gonna go? Because it's more but it's more about

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Speaker 1: quality than quantity. Yeah, you know, no, I mean sometimes

375
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Speaker 1: we we we have an idea, okay, um, you know, uh,

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Speaker 1: some of our guys are very good at that. And

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Speaker 1: you know, when we have discussions and in this small

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Speaker 1: circle of ours, you know, we we point out some

379
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Speaker 1: factors that might tip the hand of some of the

380
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Speaker 1: sharpest players out there. And uh, you know there's also

381
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,439
Speaker 1: when you know, we're talking about guys that might have betted,

382
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Speaker 1: you know, a week ago, because we put up the

383
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Speaker 1: NFL lines on Tuesday's you know, so um, meaning the

384
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Speaker 1: look aheadlines. So this past Tuesday, two days ago, you know,

385
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Speaker 1: we posted week twelve. Right, So the guys that are

386
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Speaker 1: really really sharp are the ones that really betted early,

387
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 1: you know, and and they get some other late play

388
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 1: if if the number moves, um, I say, against what

389
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:11,400
Speaker 1: their number is, you know, you could get some sharp play. Um,

390
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,399
Speaker 1: you know, later in the week or right before game time,

391
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Speaker 1: pending you know, maybe pending, you know, inform injury information.

392
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Speaker 1: You've got a couple of key players and all of

393
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Speaker 1: a sudden they're both gonna be uh active. You know,

394
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Speaker 1: some of these guys are really good, and they get

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Speaker 1: that information before we do. Sometimes we get that information

396
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Speaker 1: before they do. So when I tell you that we

397
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Speaker 1: there's ten things that go through our head, you know

398
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,919
Speaker 1: before uh you know, we move a line, you know

399
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 1: that can happen on any day at any time. Um.

400
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 1: Because when I told you that the sharp guys play

401
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,360
Speaker 1: it early, um, you know they can play it very

402
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 1: very late when they start getting that injury uh those

403
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 1: injury updates too. So so the delta between the look

404
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,199
Speaker 1: ahead for Eagles, Colts and currently was I would assume

405
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,160
Speaker 1: the biggest on the board. Or is there one it's

406
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 1: been larger? Uh this week I think it was the largest. Yeah,

407
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 1: yet another reason I like Ravens over the Panthers. Okay,

408
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 1: well let's talk about that when we know double digit

409
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 1: favorites have been awful this year. I think ten and

410
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 1: twenty one against the spread for whatever trends are worth. Um,

411
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 1: but talk to me about Panthers. Ravens. Well, we opened

412
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Speaker 1: twelve and a half and we are currently thirteen. So

413
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Speaker 1: let me just take a look. Okay here, you know

414
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Speaker 1: this game has been it's been lightly touched. We just

415
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Speaker 1: went to uh thirteen yesterday, so we we opened um,

416
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Speaker 1: let's say we opened um last Tuesday. We opened at

417
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Speaker 1: twelve and a half, all right, Um, on Monday we

418
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Speaker 1: went down to eleven and a half, so we it

419
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Speaker 1: looks like we took um a little bit of educated

420
00:22:58,119 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 1: play there at twelve and a half, and that's why

421
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 1: we moved to the full point. But now it's just

422
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 1: been slowly creeping up to its present number thirteen. So

423
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Speaker 1: with that said, it looks like, first of all, it's

424
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 1: it's lightly wagered on. There's not that much action on

425
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 1: this game right now. Um. And we dropped it down

426
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 1: early because we had some um, respected player take the points.

427
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 1: But since then the market has just kind of been

428
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 1: moving up and we're actually looking around and I see

429
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 1: some thirteen and a half right now. The reason why

430
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 1: we're probably thirteen is because that respected play that took

431
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:35,959
Speaker 1: up it looks like a bad number, which happens if

432
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,639
Speaker 1: they took twelve and a half and now it's thirteen. Yeah,

433
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 1: well list a respected players. I mean they could be respected.

434
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 1: They also could win like fifty seven percent of the

435
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 1: time compared to you know, regular guys winning fifty three

436
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 1: or fifty four. Right, it's not like these guys. Nobody

437
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 1: is no no, no, you know. I mean, you know

438
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 1: a lot of people talk crazy out there, especially these days.

439
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 1: There's just so many, so many uh heads out there

440
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 1: that are just way and you you know, my advice

441
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 1: is to really filter a lot of that out. And

442
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,639
Speaker 1: uh you know, uh sticks here, you know guys that

443
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 1: are you know, reputable and um, you know, not trying

444
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 1: to sell you anything. So let me let me try

445
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,120
Speaker 1: to guess the biggest you said you could tell where

446
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 1: the public is coming in. I'm gonna guess, and I

447
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 1: don't mind being wrong. I'm gonna guess the public is

448
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 1: all over New England. Yet the line is coming down

449
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 1: and there's respected money on the jets. Um let me

450
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 1: see here, just a sec open five and a half

451
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,159
Speaker 1: and now down to three and a half. So and

452
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 1: the look aheadline was five and a half. So it

453
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 1: went all the way down to three let's see Monday

454
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 1: and then knacked up three and a half. Interesting, both

455
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 1: were on the bye week. Yeah, it looks like we've

456
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 1: got some educated play on the dog, especially at anything

457
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 1: above four and above. Let's arps are taking hmm. Now again,

458
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 1: you're all your experience. Everybody and their mom knows the

459
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 1: Patriots have beaten the Jets thirteen times in a row.

460
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 1: Belichick for Zec Wilson, blah blah blah blah blah. What

461
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 1: do you jay in all your time? What do you

462
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 1: see here in Patriots Jets? Well, the I think that

463
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,119
Speaker 1: what the Sharps look at are with with the Jets,

464
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:31,400
Speaker 1: um are their their defense. It's it's all about their defense.

465
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 1: It's all about Uh, it's probably an underrated defense. But

466
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 1: looking at a low scoring game, Um, even though you

467
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 1: know those those numbers like they've never beaten or thirteen

468
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 1: straight times, it's not part of our linemaking. Yeah, that's

469
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 1: you know. We we look at it as okay, who

470
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 1: are what are they going to field on Sunday? This

471
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,399
Speaker 1: is this team versus this team? And the Jets have

472
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 1: been underrated pretty much all year, but they've pinned a

473
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 1: sharp play. The Sharps of like the Jets before, they

474
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 1: were actually decent, and it was mainly because that defense.

475
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 1: That defense has kept a lot of games close. And

476
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 1: I think that's what they're looking for. Obviously, the Patriots

477
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 1: despite their history, Um, you know, they're not scoring a

478
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 1: tremendous amount of points, so anything about four or above looked. Uh.

479
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,919
Speaker 1: I guess they see they see perceived value, you know.

480
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm trying to get in the heads of

481
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 1: some of the sharps here and I can't always do that,

482
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 1: but it looks like they, you know, in a close game,

483
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 1: close low scoring game, and with that Jets defense, Uh,

484
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 1: they see some value on the Jets at plus four

485
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 1: and above. Yeah, people seem to forget Mac Jones is

486
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 1: not the guy he was last year. I know, first

487
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,879
Speaker 1: impressions are everything, and he was offensive Rookie of the

488
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 1: year whatever he was. He's been atrocious this year, like

489
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 1: worse than Zack Wilson according to Pro Football Focus. And

490
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 1: you know, as a Jets fan for over thirty years,

491
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 1: I could just tell you this, Jay. They had a

492
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 1: pick six against Mac Jones that would have made it

493
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:06,119
Speaker 1: seventeen three before the half, and of course there was

494
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 1: a penalty and that flipped a game. And then Zack Wilson,

495
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 1: you know, does his thing where urinates all over himself.

496
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 1: But I don't want to revisit that game. I'm a

497
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 1: Jets fan and I missed the best number on this,

498
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 1: which makes me a little piste off. So I'm probably

499
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 1: not gonna bet this. You know you're looking at it.

500
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 1: He's not gonna get back to four, though, is it?

501
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,159
Speaker 1: Maybe not? Because you know it looks like the sharpest

502
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 1: are gonna keep that down. In fact, they might go

503
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,680
Speaker 1: down to three. Yeah. I mean maybe I could take

504
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 1: a nibble of three and a half. But if I'm

505
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 1: not getting the best number, what's the point one that

506
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 1: I think I probably got the best number on? This

507
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,880
Speaker 1: is again not a sexy game, but the Houston Texans

508
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: did not cover last week, but showed pretty well against

509
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 1: the Giants and then Washington, which got every turnover in

510
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:51,120
Speaker 1: the book from the Eagles and one there now suddenly

511
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:55,200
Speaker 1: road favorites, Taylor Heineke laying money, laying numbers on the road.

512
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: I think, did you guys get this to three and

513
00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: a half? Um? We opened two and a half, and uh,

514
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:06,239
Speaker 1: you know, with with that performance on Monday, I know

515
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,680
Speaker 1: that they're gonna garner a lot of tickets, a lot

516
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 1: of fans, a lot of tickets on the Commanders. So

517
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 1: early look aheadline was two and a half. We opened

518
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:20,719
Speaker 1: on Sunday. Uh, let's see two and a half, and

519
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: then um, Tuesday we went to three and now we're

520
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 1: staying three one three. Now we're at three flat. So

521
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: you're gonna see a three and a half jack, Yeah,

522
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 1: probably because no one's bets the Texans. Yeah, nobody's touching that.

523
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 1: I know. That's again nobody cares about, so we can

524
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 1: we can move on. But yeah, personally, I don't like

525
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 1: those you know, teams playing the you know, a very emotional,

526
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: really solid game on Monday and then having that short week. Uh.

527
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 1: I just uh, I don't have a lot of faith

528
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 1: in in that scenario where they look so good on

529
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 1: Monday and then everybody, you know, everybody's focuses on that

530
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 1: team based off of that performance on Monday in pump

531
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 1: up the line if it goes to three and a half,

532
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 1: Sure that would be appealing to some. Fox Sports Radio

533
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 1: has the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch

534
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 1: all of our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com

535
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 1: and within the I Heart Radio app search f s

536
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 1: R to listen live. All right, I say the best

537
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 1: best for last Cowboys vikings. Um, I am curious, what

538
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 1: was this first of all, what was the look ahead?

539
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 1: And then talk me through you guys behind the scenes. Um,

540
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 1: after Sunday's results with the Vikings stunning lucky victory and

541
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 1: the Cowboys stunning lucky collapse, unlucky collapse. Yeah, and it's

542
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 1: kind of like that. I mean, you know, we you know,

543
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 1: Vikings power ranking is not very good, and that's why

544
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 1: you see the Cowboys favorite. You know a lot of

545
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 1: people look at and go, how could the Cowboys be

546
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: favorite of the Vikings of Vikings? Are you know, I

547
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,719
Speaker 1: only have one loss, and I'm like, yeah, but if

548
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 1: you look at the Viking schedule in look at their wins,

549
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 1: you know they've won a few, you know, by the

550
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 1: skin of the seven seven one skin one win victories

551
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 1: in a row, one score, right, And so that's why

552
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 1: you see you know the number, I mean, you've got

553
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 1: it just highest two and a half, you know, and

554
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 1: it's back down to one and a half now. But

555
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 1: power ranking wise, the Cowboys are viewed as a better

556
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 1: team and I I agree with that. Um, the Vikings

557
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 1: have been very fortunate. I mean, if there's four or

558
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 1: five plays that just go the other way against the Vikings,

559
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 1: they're looking at a five D team. Uh. You know,

560
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 1: the Cowboys look like uh, you know, the real deal,

561
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 1: and they've been impressive at times. But I don't understand

562
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 1: the claps against Packers. But that's the NFL. Okay, you

563
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 1: can't explain everything. And looking at the Cowboys, um, you know,

564
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 1: I I think that they're one of the top teams,

565
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: uh in the NFC. You know, you you look at

566
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 1: the Eagles, you look at the Cowboys. Of course you

567
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 1: look at the forty niners. But right behind that group

568
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:05,719
Speaker 1: would probably be maybe maybe the Vikings, um, you know,

569
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 1: Vikings probably be in the top five, but there's certainly

570
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 1: not in the top three. So so you guys have

571
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 1: your core group in the back, behind the scenes, deciding

572
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 1: what to do. Did anyone uh Salmon's were any of them?

573
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 1: Did anyone say let's open pick um? The look aheadline

574
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 1: was picked Jason, Yeah, but not this week, you know. Uh.

575
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 1: In fact, I know and others were more in favor

576
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 1: of two and a half than anything else. I think

577
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 1: we had in the room anywhere from one to two

578
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 1: and a half on the Cowboys. Two and a half

579
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 1: one out, and so we opened two and a half

580
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 1: and the next thing, you know, is down to two um,

581
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 1: and then on what Monday we opened up, it went

582
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 1: down to one as a market was going down. Then

583
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 1: it's been going back and forth between one and one

584
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: and a half since Monday. Yeah, so j this just

585
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 1: just hearing you talk through the at UM. I'm just curious.

586
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 1: Have you ever considered, Hey, guys, why don't we live

587
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 1: stream this Sunday night meeting meeting of the great minds

588
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 1: behind the scenes in Vegas. Do you guys a hundred

589
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 1: years of experience, Like you said, let's live stream this

590
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 1: for anybody who wants to watch our process, because I

591
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 1: know people can say, oh, that's crazy. You can't give like, dude,

592
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 1: nobody knows what's gonna happen in these games, absolutely nobody.

593
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 1: It's so much of it as a coin flip and

594
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 1: freaky stuff. I've been on the unfortunate side of several

595
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 1: of them this season. But you guys have the experience

596
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 1: and you set the lines. Have you thought about I'm

597
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 1: live streaming one on on Twitch or or Instagram Live

598
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 1: or any of that. Have you considered that? No, is

599
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 1: there a reason why not. I'm sure people would do.

600
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: There's uh, you know, just have cameras and stuff like

601
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 1: that in our back room. There's a lot of sensitive

602
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 1: stuff back there that you know, we don't want to

603
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 1: you know, and just taking the time because we're so

604
00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:59,479
Speaker 1: we're really busy, we really are, and trying to get

605
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: all this stuff down where we're operating and you know,

606
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 1: six states now, and uh, there's there's a lot going

607
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 1: on this to set all this thing up. And you know,

608
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 1: I would kind of tell people it's like, yeah, if

609
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 1: you saw us back there making lines, I think you'd

610
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 1: probably be disappointed because like the like algorithms and crunching

611
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 1: all these numbers. You know, it's it's a very much

612
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 1: art form of you know, we do have power rankings

613
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 1: that we always based it off of, and from that

614
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 1: power rankings, that's our start from. That's our starting point,

615
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 1: and then we have those conversations and then we come

616
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 1: up with that line. But Jay, those power ranks, they're

617
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 1: not you guys talk about them. You guys all do

618
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 1: radio hits and podcast hits right there, not private information

619
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 1: that nobody knows, right, No, there's I mean, yeah, I

620
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 1: don't know if they have access to our power ranks,

621
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 1: but we're talking about them all the time. I Mean,

622
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 1: we're we're pretty much an open book, because just going

623
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 1: back to what you just said, Yeah, nobody knows who's

624
00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 1: gonna win this thing. I mean, what we're trying to

625
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 1: do is make both sides attractive, but that rarely happens.

626
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 1: And then you really have to take your skill and

627
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 1: your your experience as a bookmaker to move it the

628
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 1: correct way. Yeah. The reason I even bring this up

629
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 1: is because this is a crowded marketplace. All of a sudden,

630
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 1: you know, there's a lot of people crow barring. I mean,

631
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 1: I don't know how many sports books are out there

632
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 1: in Vegas now, but now you've got nationwide. You said

633
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 1: you're in six states. I mean I think Maryland just

634
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 1: came on board this week. Uh, California, you know, the

635
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 1: idiots out here, we didn't vote for it. But pretty

636
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 1: soon it's gonna be nationwide. I would say, what five, six,

637
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:39,359
Speaker 1: seven years, pretty much gambling in the Continental forty eight.

638
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 1: And then at that point, it's like, you know, you

639
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 1: guys have interest in being at the top of the market,

640
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,919
Speaker 1: or at least being a market leader, and some kind

641
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 1: of behind the scenes show Sunday. I'm just telling you,

642
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 1: I predict that one of the sports books will attempt

643
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 1: something like this with the personalities you've got the guys

644
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 1: in Vegas. I would have loved to have heard your

645
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 1: guy who said Cowboys one and a half versus the

646
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:06,399
Speaker 1: other guy who said two and a half. I would

647
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,799
Speaker 1: have just loved to hear that breakdown. And again, maybe

648
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:13,760
Speaker 1: I'm just the weirdo who's interested in that, but hearing

649
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:17,320
Speaker 1: you take us behind the scenes to me is fascinating. Yeah,

650
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:19,359
Speaker 1: and I get that part. I mean, we've been doing

651
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:21,720
Speaker 1: it for so long and and uh, you know, we

652
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 1: we it's a pretty quick process for us. We go

653
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:27,439
Speaker 1: through the lines, and we because we know that we're

654
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 1: right there in the ballpark and you know, the number

655
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 1: is gonna probably be changing, you know, you know throughout

656
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 1: the whole week, and we're still going to, um really

657
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 1: value some of the sharpest play out there, because those

658
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,839
Speaker 1: guys are are very good there there. You know, we

659
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 1: respect them, um, you know, to the highest level. And uh,

660
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:54,800
Speaker 1: you know that's what really you know, molds that line

661
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 1: of where it should be and so ours is just

662
00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 1: a starting point. But you know it's, oh, it's so busy,

663
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 1: and it's like it's not like three o'clock Pacific time.

664
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:08,720
Speaker 1: Do we all get together. It's whenever we have that window,

665
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 1: you know, it's like, oh, we gotta do it at too,

666
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 1: because we've got you know, we've got people coming in

667
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 1: the show. Is like, it's it's a it's a little

668
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:18,400
Speaker 1: more challenging for us to do something like that because

669
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 1: we are making these lines during the course of the

670
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 1: other games still being played. Yeah, so we we got

671
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 1: we got our hands full on Sundays, clearly, all right,

672
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: The last, truly last question. So you said earlier that

673
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:34,360
Speaker 1: the Sharps have been on the Jets, um if you

674
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 1: were too, and you know, obviously they're not gonna tell us,

675
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:39,840
Speaker 1: but the most respected betters. Is there a team or

676
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 1: two they've been writing or is there a team or

677
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 1: two you see them jumping on here as we hit

678
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: in November December. Well, the I mentioned the Jets, they

679
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 1: that are hop on on them earlier, I would say

680
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 1: Seahawks as well. That's kind of a sharp guy play

681
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 1: before the public started noticing that they were winning. The Titans. Also,

682
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 1: the Titans have also been a sharp play over the weeks.

683
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:16,919
Speaker 1: I would consider them a sharp play. Um, not every week,

684
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 1: but in general we're talking about and they they noticed

685
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:26,760
Speaker 1: those teams prior to most people. So, um, the Titans

686
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 1: are a little where because the Titans have been the

687
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 1: Sharp play the Sharps love the Titans over the last

688
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,400
Speaker 1: couple of years. And and uh, you know, I know

689
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,800
Speaker 1: that they're a very physical team. They can run. Obviously

690
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 1: they run the ball. But you know they're not definitely

691
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 1: not a public team. Um, but the Sharp the not

692
00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 1: they're not sexy, right, Seattle came in low expectations, not sexy. Right. Um.

693
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 1: I can tell you right now, my guests that feel

694
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 1: free to disagree, I believe that the sharp team going

695
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 1: forward starting this week is going to be the Baltimore Evens.

696
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 1: Schedule is unbelievably easy. And I feel like they're undervalued

697
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:07,760
Speaker 1: because Lamar hasn't been great. They don't have a marquee receiver,

698
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 1: they don't have a marquee running back. It's like, I

699
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 1: don't know, I'm kind of all in on hardball here.

700
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 1: End of the season. I wouldn't be shocked if they

701
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:16,239
Speaker 1: tried to get the number one or two seed with

702
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 1: the schedule they've got the rest of the way. Yeah,

703
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 1: And I was looking at the game to game bases. Uh,

704
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 1: you know some of these uh, you know, Sharp plays

705
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 1: as far as futures and the overall look from you know,

706
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 1: thirty thousand you know feet you know, uh, you know,

707
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 1: the sharp guys probably wouldn't really like the Ravens right

708
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 1: now or this week, you know, laying thirteen. They don't

709
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 1: like to lay a lot of points like that. And

710
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that they'll never do it, but they

711
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 1: do shy away from those type of spreads. But the Ravens,

712
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,839
Speaker 1: you're right, has they have a very easy schedule. You know,

713
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 1: hopefully they get healthy here because you know, their receivers

714
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 1: have been a mess all season long, and they luckily

715
00:38:56,920 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 1: they had three or four running backs that were all

716
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 1: about the same caliber. Right, uh, look at the Cowboys

717
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 1: to the Cowboys ever after this game, they have a

718
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 1: very easy schedule. While I got you here, what's the

719
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:14,960
Speaker 1: line for Thanksgiving Day? Is it? Cowboys Giants? Yes, that's

720
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 1: the middle game, right and that Cowboys are we opened

721
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 1: six and a half now seven on on the Cowboys.

722
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 1: Interesting because if the Cowboys happened to lose to the

723
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,280
Speaker 1: Vikings this week, all of a sudden, it's like, huh

724
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:29,480
Speaker 1: are they fighting for a wild card spot? And then

725
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 1: that Giants game next week? I don't think that's gonna

726
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 1: be a cake walk against Table. He's a really good

727
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 1: coach man. Anyways, I've kept you too long. Um this

728
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:43,320
Speaker 1: is great stuff. Audience loves it. Um So Jake Cornergy

729
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:46,719
Speaker 1: super book at Westgate. Thanks a lot for taking the time. Man,

730
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 1: good luck. Well, you don't need the luxe. I'll let

731
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 1: me let me take that back. You guys don't need

732
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 1: how about this one? Enjoy the games, Jay ok. I

733
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:03,360
Speaker 1: appreciate him in Fox Sports Radio has the best sports

734
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 1: talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows

735
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 1: at Fox sports Radio dot com and within the I

736
00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 1: Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live.

737
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:17,720
Speaker 1: The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching

738
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 1: the game. He's making money while you do it. Here's

739
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 1: your best beat. Great stuff from Ja Corner game again.

740
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 1: I know that the two that jump out to me

741
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:34,760
Speaker 1: are Eagles Colts, and aside from the venue change for

742
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 1: Bill's Browns, I think I think Cowboys Vikings jumps out

743
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 1: as well. It's weird. I've initially my first read was

744
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:45,799
Speaker 1: Vikings um very early in the week, and then it

745
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:47,919
Speaker 1: took like twenty four hours before I was like, wait

746
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 1: a minute, no, no, no, Cowboys. Cow has to be

747
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 1: the Cowboys at any rate. I'll get to NFL in

748
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 1: a moment. I quickly. You guys know him Stoke for

749
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:58,319
Speaker 1: the World Cup. So I have been, let's just say,

750
00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 1: betting on his to World Cup as I can. It's

751
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:03,240
Speaker 1: only comes around every four years. So I did fire

752
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 1: on the opener Ecuador. I'm on Ecuador money line plus

753
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:08,360
Speaker 1: one forty one against guitar. I may have mentioned that

754
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:11,280
Speaker 1: on a podcast earlier this week, but I'm on Ecuador.

755
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 1: So to reach the quarterfinals, I have Canada plus twelve fifty.

756
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 1: I think they can get out of the group and

757
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:24,240
Speaker 1: win a game. Mexico plus five hundred and Uruguay plus

758
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 1: two twenty has to get to the quarterfinals. For this

759
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 1: is a bit of a This is one. Instantly my buddy,

760
00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 1: who's a big soccer guy, got on my case. He

761
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:35,839
Speaker 1: was like, oh, I don't know about that, and then

762
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 1: we discussed it and he's like, I kind of like it. France,

763
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 1: which has some major injury issues to like three very

764
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:45,239
Speaker 1: good players, still is a loaded roster. I mean, you

765
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,719
Speaker 1: got him, bob A, you got Benza, You're gonna be

766
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 1: in good shape. I took France for the total goals

767
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:54,920
Speaker 1: for the tournament under ten and a half. Now, instantly,

768
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 1: when I put that on, I g Somebody's like, dude,

769
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 1: they're gonna smoke Tunisia five nothing. I was like, are

770
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 1: they Is it gonna be five? It's five. I'm in trouble.

771
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:05,439
Speaker 1: I don't know that they get out of group play,

772
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 1: that's the one thing. Now, if they do and they

773
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 1: get to the knockout stages, then yeah, under teen point

774
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:13,160
Speaker 1: five is is not gonna be a good bet. But

775
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:15,879
Speaker 1: I took it. I took over three and a half

776
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 1: goals for the US in the tournament. Now here's where

777
00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:22,480
Speaker 1: I think that's miss priced. So if you look at

778
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:26,799
Speaker 1: most of the betting markets, the US is expected to

779
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:29,879
Speaker 1: get out of group play, so they should. They are

780
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:35,399
Speaker 1: expected to get a fourth game, even if they don't

781
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 1: score against England. Let's say England shuts them out one nothing,

782
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 1: England scores are an early goal and then hunkers down

783
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 1: on defense. I've got like all superstars on defense and

784
00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 1: the US doesn't get one. There you're telling me they

785
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:50,319
Speaker 1: can't score four goals in three games. The other three

786
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:53,759
Speaker 1: games at what Iran's defense is incredible? I mean, And

787
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 1: of course I did research this and I wrote it

788
00:42:55,560 --> 00:43:00,520
Speaker 1: up for Fox Sports. Um, so every time the US

789
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:03,879
Speaker 1: has made the knockout round this century. So in two

790
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:07,719
Speaker 1: thousand two they scored seven goals, In two thousand and

791
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:10,279
Speaker 1: ten they scored five goals. In two thousand fourteen they

792
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 1: scored five goals. That's just getting out of the group stage, right,

793
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 1: So four games, you tell me they can't score four goals.

794
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:22,399
Speaker 1: Now there is some juice minus. I guess the big

795
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 1: question is a lot of people. One of the things

796
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 1: you look at and and you know, I have this

797
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 1: big handicapping breakdown as I've been looking over this stuff

798
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 1: for a while. What are the important gambling factors that

799
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 1: you look into in the World Cup? And um, number

800
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:43,719
Speaker 1: three on my list is how is the team? How

801
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 1: is their form like the last five to ten games? Well,

802
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 1: if you just look at the last two games for

803
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:50,799
Speaker 1: the US, the final two games that were tune ups,

804
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 1: wasn't good. Did not score against Saudi Arabia, did not

805
00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:01,760
Speaker 1: score against Japan. There are questions it forward. I like Ferreira.

806
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:03,760
Speaker 1: You can go back and listen to the Alexei Lallas podcast.

807
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 1: I like Ferrera a lot um hajji. Right, nobody anybody

808
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:13,359
Speaker 1: who's drawing up predictions of who's gonna make the US roster.

809
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:17,240
Speaker 1: Nobody that I saw had hagy Right making the team. Okay,

810
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:20,959
Speaker 1: Burl picked him. I don't know if Hagi Right's gonna play.

811
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 1: I just it's a stunner. So the question is who's scoring. Oh,

812
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 1: it's gonna be political politic Jason. Okay, I'm sure the

813
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 1: opponents know that the best player on the U S

814
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 1: by a mile is Politic. And yes, Tyler Adams very

815
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:35,759
Speaker 1: good and McKinney's awesome, and I like the team. But

816
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:37,839
Speaker 1: Pulistic is the guy. They're gonna try to scheme him out.

817
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:41,880
Speaker 1: That's obvious. So then whose course, And that's where there

818
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:43,839
Speaker 1: are questions. I mean, guys, I don't know how many

819
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 1: times Josie out Door played World Cup games, big matches

820
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 1: and you're like, oh, that's gotta be the guy, and

821
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 1: he just never delivered. So there is a hedge. If

822
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 1: you don't like over three and a half goals in

823
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:56,840
Speaker 1: the for the USA in the tournament, Okay, you're not

824
00:44:56,880 --> 00:45:00,839
Speaker 1: gonna like this lowest scoring team at the World Cup.

825
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 1: US plus you can do that hedge. Now, I did

826
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:09,399
Speaker 1: look in two thousand six when there were expectations because

827
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:11,239
Speaker 1: the US was good in two thousand two, they made

828
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:14,560
Speaker 1: the quarters. In two thousand six, they got destroyed in

829
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,680
Speaker 1: their opener against Czech Republic and then they only ended

830
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:20,440
Speaker 1: up scoring two goals in the entire tournament. That was

831
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 1: among the worst at the Cup. But Trinidad and Tobago

832
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:25,840
Speaker 1: didn't score. Togo, I don't even know what that is,

833
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 1: scored one, and Gola scored one. But the field is

834
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 1: way better and stronger and deeper, as is everything in sports,

835
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:37,880
Speaker 1: than it was in two thousand and six. So you

836
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 1: know there's a chip if the US. I'm just there's

837
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:42,160
Speaker 1: a doomsday scenario for the US. I do not want

838
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 1: it to happen. It could happen. If the US loses

839
00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:48,080
Speaker 1: the opener of Wales, then they have to face England.

840
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 1: Everything on the line against England, and England's one of

841
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 1: like the top three or four teams. Some would argue

842
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 1: maybe two in the entire field. So you go down.

843
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:02,560
Speaker 1: If you lose that game, it's over. You're not advancing.

844
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 1: And then do they just toss out a bunch of

845
00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 1: guys off the bench in game three so you can

846
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:12,479
Speaker 1: get some experience leading into and there's a scenario where

847
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 1: those guys just haven't played together and the US totally flops. Like, listen,

848
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 1: that's ultimate doomsday. It could happen. I'm just saying that

849
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,719
Speaker 1: that is a possibility. Now. To hedge that out, well,

850
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 1: this is not really ahead. This is pie in the sky.

851
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 1: USA to reach the quarterfinals plus four fifty. Now, by

852
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 1: the way, I did look this up, Mexico was plus

853
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 1: five hundred to reach the quarterfinals, which is crazy. So

854
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:38,000
Speaker 1: the market saying the US has a better chance. Of course,

855
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 1: if they finished second in their group, they're gonna face

856
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 1: the top team from the second group, which would likely

857
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 1: be Netherlands. But if somehow Netherlands slips up and it's

858
00:46:47,600 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 1: not Laarrange, it would be Ecuador Senegal. And I'm telling

859
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 1: you Senegal's best players out for the tournament, so it

860
00:46:55,680 --> 00:47:00,360
Speaker 1: could be Ecuador Ecuador and great. So you're telling me

861
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 1: all the US has to do beat Wales, lose or

862
00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 1: tie to England, beat Iran. That's they're gonna be favored

863
00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 1: in both those other two games and their advance. You

864
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:15,120
Speaker 1: get two wins, you're advancing, and if they get lucky

865
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 1: and they don't have to face Netherlands, where they would

866
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:19,320
Speaker 1: be a dog. I think they'll be favored over Ecuador.

867
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:22,239
Speaker 1: I don't know about Senegal. Senegal's best players not here.

868
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 1: I don't know how they're going to perform money uh

869
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:30,120
Speaker 1: epl superstar. That guy's a machine goal scoring genius. Okay,

870
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 1: So if they happen to face Ecuador Senecal, I think

871
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:34,879
Speaker 1: they got a chance and boom, you're in the quarterfinals.

872
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:38,479
Speaker 1: So there is a path to the quarters for the US.

873
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 1: I mean, who knows, maybe the England. Maybe England, the

874
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 1: pressure gets to them. We've seen them crumble in big

875
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:47,720
Speaker 1: moments in World Cup history. So they win the group

876
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 1: and then they don't have to face Netherlands. Likely they

877
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:55,239
Speaker 1: would face Ecuador Senegal. Okay, I know this is optimistic.

878
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 1: I'm all over the place, but there are so many scenarios.

879
00:47:57,920 --> 00:47:59,880
Speaker 1: This is so exciting. I'm just I'm geeked. Okay. So

880
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 1: that's my World Cup gambling for the first weekend. Now

881
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:07,439
Speaker 1: let's get to NFL this weekend. Good three okay, three

882
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:10,720
Speaker 1: and two in the contest last week, even a rationally

883
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:14,080
Speaker 1: large number of wagers. This week, let's start. I'm just

884
00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:16,480
Speaker 1: telling you what I got early in the week, and

885
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:18,359
Speaker 1: I probably should say it at the time because it's

886
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 1: not available now. But Steelers five that that was before

887
00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 1: I found out about the DJ reader uh return to

888
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 1: the lineup for the Bengals very important to stopping the

889
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:31,920
Speaker 1: run game. Steelers did beat the Bengals in the opener.

890
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 1: Burrow was awful, but he was he hadn't played in

891
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:36,480
Speaker 1: the preseason. He was coming off the appendeck to me,

892
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:40,440
Speaker 1: he did after more chase though T J. Watt absolutely

893
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 1: eviscerated Lael Collins off the edge t J Watt's back.

894
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 1: I don't know if Benn fit Patrick's gonna play it.

895
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:49,040
Speaker 1: It doesn't appear so, but either way, I got the

896
00:48:49,080 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 1: Steelers getting five. Um, it's down to three and a half.

897
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,080
Speaker 1: I don't obviously don't like it at three. I think

898
00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:58,279
Speaker 1: it's at four. I would take it still four and

899
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 1: a half. Three and a half a little dicey for me,

900
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:03,840
Speaker 1: but I got the Steelers I have. I'm on the

901
00:49:03,920 --> 00:49:05,799
Speaker 1: Ravens at minus twelve and a half. And if you

902
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 1: listen to the interview, and shame on you if you

903
00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:11,440
Speaker 1: just fast forward to the end for my bets, but

904
00:49:11,480 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 1: if you listen to the interview with Jake Cornegy, you

905
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:17,240
Speaker 1: know I'm bullish on the Ravens and by Stock. Now, okay,

906
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 1: John Harball coming off the by I think is eleven

907
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 1: and three against the spread. Baker Mayfield is not going

908
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 1: to surprise them. They've seen him for a couple of years.

909
00:49:24,560 --> 00:49:26,880
Speaker 1: They know what he's capable of and not capable of.

910
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:32,839
Speaker 1: I think Baltimore puts it on Carolina, and if Cincinnati

911
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 1: loses to the Bengals, Baltimore is now up a couple

912
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:38,239
Speaker 1: of games in the division. Starts to get Harry. I'm

913
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:40,840
Speaker 1: just telling you that Bengal schedule is brutal, guys, but

914
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:42,919
Speaker 1: both of the Super Bowl team from last year could

915
00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:46,399
Speaker 1: easily miss the playoffs. Um a couple of totals. Now,

916
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:48,080
Speaker 1: I did get a little lucky here. I didn't even

917
00:49:48,120 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 1: know I had bet this when I was talking to Cornegate,

918
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:53,480
Speaker 1: but I did take the over forty two in Bill's Cleveland.

919
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:56,359
Speaker 1: That's long gone because the game has been moved. I

920
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 1: had bet it on the case of a snow over.

921
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 1: You guys are familiar with the snow overs um where

922
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:04,279
Speaker 1: everybody thinks, oh, you gotta bet the under because the

923
00:50:04,360 --> 00:50:07,840
Speaker 1: snow wrong. The defense has no clue where what's happening.

924
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 1: It's tough to stop the offense and knows exactly what

925
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:13,360
Speaker 1: they're doing. Big advantage to the offense in snow games.

926
00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:15,359
Speaker 1: So it went down to forty two and a half.

927
00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:18,360
Speaker 1: I took you over. Now it's indoors Bill should have

928
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,200
Speaker 1: their way with Cleveland. I mean, hell, Miami just crushed him.

929
00:50:21,239 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 1: So I feel confident in that one. Uh, Dallas Minnesota

930
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 1: over forty eight and a half. A little buyer's remorse

931
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:29,800
Speaker 1: on that, because I can see this. This Dallas defense

932
00:50:29,840 --> 00:50:32,680
Speaker 1: looks like dry Saw, the left tackle for Minnesota who,

933
00:50:32,719 --> 00:50:34,839
Speaker 1: according to Pro Football Focus, has graded out as the

934
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:38,280
Speaker 1: number one left tackle in football this season. I believe

935
00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:41,239
Speaker 1: there's that was he had allowed no pressures. I said

936
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:44,800
Speaker 1: this on Cowherd on Thursday, and his head like exploded.

937
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 1: He had a number one left tackle in football. And oh,

938
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 1: by the way, Mica Parsons, did you guys see what

939
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:53,840
Speaker 1: he did last week? Zero pressures? Worst game in his career.

940
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:57,880
Speaker 1: So I was reading about why what happened and apparently

941
00:50:57,920 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 1: he only rushed the passer eight times. Now, a lot

942
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 1: of it had to do with the Packers running the football,

943
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:07,560
Speaker 1: but apparently Anthony Barr is their coverage linebacker. With Bar out,

944
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 1: they put Parsons in that role, which didn't totally make sense,

945
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:12,920
Speaker 1: but I guess they had to do something. Sounds like

946
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 1: Anthony Barr's back and will play, so Parsons gets back

947
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:17,680
Speaker 1: to his I'm gonna set the edge and I'm going

948
00:51:17,719 --> 00:51:22,919
Speaker 1: to terrorize the quarterback. Michael Parsons versus a backup left

949
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:26,400
Speaker 1: tackle is a recipe for disaster. If you missed Thursday's

950
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:29,920
Speaker 1: podcast with Sam Monson where he talked about this extensively

951
00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:32,760
Speaker 1: good stuff. I have the over fifty and a half

952
00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:38,960
Speaker 1: in Bears Falcons in justin fields we trust. Um. I

953
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:41,319
Speaker 1: have the forty Niners minus seven and a half. Look

954
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:43,799
Speaker 1: like that's going up if you listen to I think

955
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:47,440
Speaker 1: it was Monday's podcast. Teams that did not cover verse

956
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:50,920
Speaker 1: teams that did. It's not always a winning path, it's

957
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:54,239
Speaker 1: just one factor. I like to toss in San Francisco,

958
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:59,560
Speaker 1: did not cover Arizona, did games in Mexico. San Franz unimpressive.

959
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:01,680
Speaker 1: Last week. I think they bounced back, even though I

960
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:05,080
Speaker 1: know some of the Kyle Shanahan in prime time stuff

961
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:09,800
Speaker 1: is very sketchy and um. In terms of the contest,

962
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 1: I'm definitely gonna have the Cowboys in there. Uhts will

963
00:52:14,600 --> 00:52:17,240
Speaker 1: be on their Eagles will be on there. I think

964
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:20,239
Speaker 1: I probably should look. If the Texans are three and

965
00:52:20,239 --> 00:52:21,960
Speaker 1: a half, I'm gonna take them. I know that's not

966
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:24,600
Speaker 1: gonna be popular, but I'll just ride with Davis mills

967
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:27,719
Speaker 1: Um at home against Washington. You know, we talked about

968
00:52:27,719 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 1: it a little bit with Jake Cornergy. Washington just a

969
00:52:30,040 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 1: little bit overrated off that Monday night football win. I

970
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 1: don't you know. Listen, they were good, but the Eagles

971
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 1: did turn the ball over three times and they were

972
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:42,319
Speaker 1: driving for the go ahead uh touchdown late in the

973
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:46,520
Speaker 1: game when what's his name fumbled after the fifty completion.

974
00:52:46,640 --> 00:52:50,840
Speaker 1: Just kind of freaky stuff. Um, And I guess the

975
00:52:50,920 --> 00:52:54,040
Speaker 1: last one is I'm looking at Detroit waiting on the

976
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:57,879
Speaker 1: weather in New York. I like Detroit in the spot.

977
00:52:57,880 --> 00:52:59,959
Speaker 1: I know I don't like Jared Goff outdoors. Ever, We've

978
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 1: talked about this extensively for some reason. If I can

979
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:04,640
Speaker 1: get the three and a half, I think I'll take it.

980
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:10,320
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna round this out by folks try to

981
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:12,239
Speaker 1: avoid betting on my Jets. But I did have a

982
00:53:12,280 --> 00:53:15,759
Speaker 1: four week stretch where I nailed every Jets game. I

983
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:20,400
Speaker 1: backed off in the last Patriots game. Didn't. Something smelled wrong,

984
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:23,879
Speaker 1: And of course I don't want to revisit the pick six.

985
00:53:23,920 --> 00:53:27,920
Speaker 1: It wasn't. But I think I'm ready. I didn't get

986
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:29,440
Speaker 1: on them last week against the Bills. I didn't have

987
00:53:29,440 --> 00:53:31,839
Speaker 1: that much faith. I think I'm ready to get back.

988
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:33,680
Speaker 1: At three and a half, the Jets are gonna be

989
00:53:33,680 --> 00:53:35,840
Speaker 1: a bye for me. I'm taking it. I don't have

990
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 1: any faith in Mac Jones and I If the Jets

991
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:41,200
Speaker 1: win this game, folks, I saw one of these, like

992
00:53:41,400 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 1: uh playoff percentage chances. Their chances to make the playoffs

993
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:48,239
Speaker 1: goes up to like or something ridiculous. But they need

994
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 1: this without it, Jet season probably over. With that, we

995
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:55,200
Speaker 1: will wrap up for the weekend. This was a long

996
00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:58,480
Speaker 1: podcast or to keep you long. Enjoy the World Cup,

997
00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:01,400
Speaker 1: Enjoy the NFL. Enjoy USC beating u AT U c

998
00:54:01,600 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 1: l A and covering the two and a half points spread.

999
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you Monday. H