Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Wait inside, from the reporters and editors who bring you
Speaker 1: America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and
Speaker 1: tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer
Speaker 1: and Tim Stenebek from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: All Right, everybody, Yes, TikTok, We're in a wait and
Speaker 2: see mode.
Speaker 3: We know.
Speaker 2: Also, hi for longer. We've heard this from a lot
Speaker 2: of FED speakers. The latest to weigh in on all
Speaker 2: of this, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, in a speech
Speaker 2: today at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Speaker 4: In the absence of significant weakening in the labor market,
Speaker 4: I need to see several more months of good inflation
Speaker 4: data before I would be comfortable supporting and easing in
Speaker 4: the stance of monetary policy.
Speaker 2: Again, that's Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, a wash in
Speaker 2: FED speak and talking FED president's firsthand is our own
Speaker 2: Michael McKee, Mike's Bloomberg News International economics and policy correspondent.
Speaker 2: He's joining us from Amelia Island in Florida, where the
Speaker 2: Atlanta Fed hosts its annual Financial Markets conference, where'd everybody go, Mike, Are.
Speaker 5: You get any time outside, Mike, or is it just
Speaker 5: are you in a conference room the whole time?
Speaker 6: I mean the pictures, I'm not getting much time outside.
Speaker 6: Everybody's in the conference room right behind me.
Speaker 7: Right now. They're talking about the future of.
Speaker 6: The US dollar overseas, which of course everybody has on
Speaker 6: their minds because the FED has higher interest rates than
Speaker 6: the rest of the world.
Speaker 7: The dollar keeps getting stronger.
Speaker 6: But it's been interesting because there really isn't a whole
Speaker 6: lot of disagreement from FED officials.
Speaker 7: Some of them, like Grafael Bostik, put a number on how.
Speaker 6: Many cuts we might get this year, maybe one, he says,
Speaker 6: And others don't even have a number. They're just saying, well,
Speaker 6: we think we might be able to cut rates, but
Speaker 6: we're going to watch those inflation numbers as they come in.
Speaker 5: Well, as Carol mentioned, she's got a countdown going. We're
Speaker 5: eleven days away from the black period beginning for the FED.
Speaker 5: That's ahead of course of the next FED meeting. And
Speaker 5: I'm wondering what taken this taken today and yesterday and
Speaker 5: all the FED speakers that we've heard in various locations
Speaker 5: around the country. What it all means for that next
Speaker 5: policy meeting, which does come out on June.
Speaker 6: Twelfth, Well, it probably means we're not going to see
Speaker 6: any kind of move at all, because they all want
Speaker 6: more time and more data. What will be interesting is
Speaker 6: the summary of economic projections, what they think is going
Speaker 6: to happen in terms of inflation, growth and unemployment. And
Speaker 6: then of course the infamous dot plot. They've got to
Speaker 6: put some dots on the plot, so they'll have to
Speaker 6: put some numbers to it. We won't know who exactly
Speaker 6: is whom, except.
Speaker 7: That if.
Speaker 6: Rafael Bastik is just going to do one cut, maybe
Speaker 6: we can figure his out. But it will be interesting
Speaker 6: to see how far they back off of what they
Speaker 6: put out in March, which was for three cuts. And
Speaker 6: as Laurenamester said yesterday to us on Bloomberg, that's off
Speaker 6: the table. Now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is what's interesting, right Mike, and
Speaker 2: their commentary they can kind of come in haul a
Speaker 2: little bit or be a little bit vague, but you know,
Speaker 2: it's like pin the tail and donkey. At some point
Speaker 2: you got to stick a pin in the dot plot
Speaker 2: and like make your projections.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and they know it's a problem because they know
Speaker 6: they don't know what they're going to do. They're waiting
Speaker 6: for this data now. Chris Waller made the point today
Speaker 6: that the FED is not overly dated dependent, as someone
Speaker 6: on Wall Street have argued, because the FED is looking
Speaker 6: at the data but not doing anything yet they haven't
Speaker 6: bounced around.
Speaker 7: It's the markets that have.
Speaker 6: Been overly data dependent, going up and down and pricing
Speaker 6: in and pricing out FED moves, while the FED has
Speaker 6: just sat there waiting for evidence that would enable it
Speaker 6: to move. So he doesn't think that they're guilty of
Speaker 6: being too data and driven, but that's the situation. They're
Speaker 6: not going to move until they see the right kind
Speaker 6: of data. So even what we get out of a
Speaker 6: dot plot in June may not mean that much.
Speaker 5: Mike, you mentioned that a lot of the folks on
Speaker 5: the Federal Reserve who we've heard from in recent days
Speaker 5: haven't had a lot of variation when it comes to
Speaker 5: their opinions about the path of interest rates or high
Speaker 5: for longer, or when to move rates lower. And I'm
Speaker 5: wondering if, in your years of covering the FED and
Speaker 5: covering monetary policy, if it's pretty atypical to have this
Speaker 5: much widespread agreement.
Speaker 7: It depends on the situation totally.
Speaker 6: We had this kind of agreement in the early two
Speaker 6: thousands when the FED raise interest rates seventeen times by
Speaker 6: twenty five basis points at a time. Everybody knew what
Speaker 6: they were going to do, and they had pretty much
Speaker 6: telegraphed it, so it wasn't a surprise. And obviously when
Speaker 6: you have a crisis like the pandemic or even the
Speaker 6: Great Financial Crisis, when they cut rates dramatically.
Speaker 7: Everybody knew that they'd all be on board for that.
Speaker 6: The real dissents came in the days maybe back in
Speaker 6: the nineteen nineties and earlier, when there were questions about
Speaker 6: how much and whether they should move given inflation. We
Speaker 6: haven't had significant inflation since then, so it hasn't been
Speaker 6: a huge issue.
Speaker 2: Hey, Mike, listen, you have seen lots of market cycles,
Speaker 2: and you have talked to tons of different of FED
Speaker 2: speakers over the years, and you've talked to them before crises,
Speaker 2: post crises, you know, Pandemic, GFC, Great Financial Crisis. So
Speaker 2: I do wonder, as you like, is there a mood,
Speaker 2: Is there a tone that you are feeling at this
Speaker 2: time from all of these folks are kind of where
Speaker 2: we are. They kind of like, listen, guys, we're almost there,
Speaker 2: Like we got this. It's you know, things are kind
Speaker 2: of moving along like we wanted. I don't know, how
Speaker 2: do you characterize.
Speaker 7: It, Well, it may be a little bit Carol.
Speaker 6: As a mommy, you'll understand this when you tell your
Speaker 6: daughter I got this, but you're not really sure. But
Speaker 6: you're the authority figure, so you have to say.
Speaker 7: I got this.
Speaker 6: That's kind of the situation they're in. I haven't seen
Speaker 6: this much uncertainty about the economy among FED officials in
Speaker 6: a very long time, if ever.
Speaker 7: Because the pandemic up ended all of.
Speaker 6: Their models and all of the prior history that they
Speaker 6: used to draw from and try to figure out where
Speaker 6: they are.
Speaker 7: And they admit it's still kind of that way. They
Speaker 7: think they.
Speaker 6: Know what's going to happen, but they have a great
Speaker 6: deal of humility about it because they've been wrong before
Speaker 6: coming out of this pandemic, because they get a misleading
Speaker 6: view of the economy.
Speaker 2: I still hope my daughter isn't listening because Mike, that's
Speaker 2: kind of figure out. Yeah, yeah, I got this. Hey,
Speaker 2: one last question, there are those some economic data points
Speaker 2: or what are the economic data points to keep an
Speaker 2: eye on ahead of that June meeting.
Speaker 6: Well, on May thirty, first, we're going to get the
Speaker 6: PCE inflation numbers, and those will be important because obviously.
Speaker 7: That's the indicator that the Fed follows.
Speaker 6: Interesting thing is the nerds who go into this stuff
Speaker 6: have a pretty good track record of forecasting EZE and
Speaker 6: they think it's going to.
Speaker 7: Come down a little more than CPI. That would be
Speaker 7: good news.
Speaker 6: But then we get CPI again on the day of
Speaker 6: the Fed meeting, so if there were some disaster in
Speaker 6: those numbers, they could make a last minute change in
Speaker 6: their plans. Of course, Jobs Day, we get Jobs Day
Speaker 6: the first week of June, and that's always a fun time.
Speaker 2: Well, don't look over your shoulder, but the nerds are
Speaker 2: coming for you, so just be careful there, all right.
Speaker 2: Michael McKee always great to check in with you, of course,
Speaker 2: our Michael McKee, international Economics and Policy correspondent there at
Speaker 2: Amelia Island in Florida.
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Speaker 2: She played an AI virtual assistant in the twenty thirteen
Speaker 2: film Her declined an offer from open ai CEO Sam
Speaker 2: Altman that was back in September about voicing an audio
Speaker 2: feature for the company's popular chat GPT chatbot, only tim
Speaker 2: to be shocked, angered, and in disbelief her words, when
Speaker 2: last week open ai released new audio tools and stage
Speaker 2: demonstrations that included a voice called Sky that sounded a
Speaker 2: lot like her.
Speaker 5: That her that Carol is referring to as actress Scarlett Johansson,
Speaker 5: who says she was quote forced to hire legal counsel
Speaker 5: to demand the removal of an AI voice from open
Speaker 5: ais chatbot that sounded too much like her own voice.
Speaker 5: Tracking this for us is Bloomberg News AI reporter Rachel Metz.
Speaker 5: She's in our San Francisco bureau. Okay, Rachel. It's a
Speaker 5: specific story of what happened to Scarlett Johansson, and that's
Speaker 5: a story that you write about. But there's also the bigger,
Speaker 5: broader story that matters about what and who can be
Speaker 5: manipulated in the AI world. So before we get to
Speaker 5: that part, walk us through what happened to Scarlet Johansson
Speaker 5: and then open AI's reaction to it, and then we'll
Speaker 5: get to how this illustrates things moving forward.
Speaker 8: Sure, so Scarlett Johansson sent a very angry or she
Speaker 8: put set out a very angry statement yesterday saying that
Speaker 8: she had been asked back in September if she would
Speaker 8: be interested in voicing a voice for an audio feature
Speaker 8: for Chat GPT. She was not interested in doing that,
Speaker 8: and she told the company she was not interested in
Speaker 8: doing that. The company also put out a voice feature
Speaker 8: that same month, and so these voices Sky is one
Speaker 8: of five that they released in September, and it's been available.
Speaker 8: For instance of using the Chat GPT app on an iPhone,
Speaker 8: you could use this voice. I think it kind of
Speaker 8: was a little bit under the radar to the average
Speaker 8: person until just this past week when Openingye released its
Speaker 8: new flagship model and much of its demo centered on
Speaker 8: voice interaction and they used this same Sky voice. I
Speaker 8: think a lot of people, perhaps including Scarlett Johansson, hadn't
Speaker 8: really thought, wait a minute, that sounds a lot like
Speaker 8: Scarlett Johansson until just recently.
Speaker 5: And then there was the tweet last week which we're
Speaker 5: going to put up on the screen from sam Alt.
Speaker 5: Then can I call it a tweet? The post on
Speaker 5: X you a post just one word Rachel and it's
Speaker 5: her there it is. I think that might have done something.
Speaker 8: No, I I think so. I mean it's kind of
Speaker 8: hard to say that you that that didn't refer to
Speaker 8: the movie her, to the voice from the movie her,
Speaker 8: to the her in her right, which we all know
Speaker 8: is Scarlett Johanson. I mean, different people can have different
Speaker 8: opinions about who this sky voice sounds like. And to
Speaker 8: be clear, OpenAI did say this was a voice and
Speaker 8: like our other voices, came from voice actors that we hired.
Speaker 8: It is not Scarlet Johansson's voice. But I think a
Speaker 8: lot of people do think that it sounds like her,
Speaker 8: and she clearly thinks it sounds quite a lot like her.
Speaker 8: And I think that that is really really important that
Speaker 8: Scarlet Johansson thinks it sounds like Scarlet Johansson.
Speaker 2: And Rachel they yanked it right.
Speaker 8: Yeah, so what they did the other day. It's weird
Speaker 8: to wake up to things like this, but this is
Speaker 8: this is how.
Speaker 7: It goes so new reality.
Speaker 8: I know, I was like, wait, what's happening?
Speaker 7: But so is this dream.
Speaker 8: Just yeah, exactly, just yesterday, the sky voice was paused.
Speaker 8: They said, so basically and right now, like if I
Speaker 8: open up the chat GBT app on my iPhone, what
Speaker 8: will happen is I'll see it if I want to
Speaker 8: choose a voice. But if you choose it, you won't
Speaker 8: actually get to use it. You'll be using another voice.
Speaker 8: I think right now it's another voice called Juniper.
Speaker 5: Okay, So I said that we'll talk about the bigger
Speaker 5: picture here, and that's what I want to get too,
Speaker 5: because it's sort of to me as emblematic of this
Speaker 5: world where computers and humans are becoming closer together, this
Speaker 5: idea of living in a world where maybe what we
Speaker 5: hear in an audiobook or what we see on a
Speaker 5: screen isn't necessarily the person who it's portraying it to be.
Speaker 5: So talk a little bit about that.
Speaker 8: I mean, I think that we're seeing and we have
Speaker 8: seen over the years quite a number of companies roll
Speaker 8: out assistant type devices. This would be the latest. And
Speaker 8: what is interesting, regardless of the voice about what Opening
Speaker 8: the Eye is trying to do now is with their
Speaker 8: latest model, they're saying, these voices are going to respond
Speaker 8: in essentially real time, so in a number in order
Speaker 8: of milliseconds, just like you and I would talk to
Speaker 8: each other. And we saw this on display in the demo,
Speaker 8: and that really changes the dynamics I think between a
Speaker 8: person and the technology if the technology is going back
Speaker 8: and forth with you and also is sort of adjusting
Speaker 8: in real time to the way that you're sounding, which
Speaker 8: open Aye says that it can do.
Speaker 2: But I mean, isn't there going to be Like Tim
Speaker 2: and I were talking before we get on air, I'm like,
Speaker 2: aren't there going to be images things generated? If they're
Speaker 2: pulling in all this information that's out there, that there's
Speaker 2: going to be something that looks like Tim one day
Speaker 2: or you or me, it's just going to kind of happen.
Speaker 2: Is that going to be kind of just it's just
Speaker 2: going to happen or sounds.
Speaker 8: Like us, you mean, like an avatar of you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, or something, but maybe not intentional only if you're
Speaker 2: on Fumble, I think is what we learned last week
Speaker 2: at the Bloomberg Technologies on it. That's true, But you know,
Speaker 2: if it's pulling it existing data that's out there, visual
Speaker 2: or other audio, like, isn't it going to eventually create
Speaker 2: things that look like all of us sound like all
Speaker 2: that I mean, I mean.
Speaker 8: These companies are making really intentional decisions to create voice models.
Speaker 7: There.
Speaker 8: You would for something that's gonna specifically sound like a person,
Speaker 8: you would be recording like a real voice actor's voice.
Speaker 8: This is what Opening Eye said that they did. Yeah,
Speaker 8: and this is pretty common. You would record somebody saying
Speaker 8: certain things, and then you would use that to build
Speaker 8: your voice model, and that's how you end up with
Speaker 8: like a bunch of different voices that people can choose.
Speaker 8: It is true that it is getting increasingly easy to
Speaker 8: build a like a deep fake voice of you or
Speaker 8: of I mean, someone could use this audio and build
Speaker 8: something like that pretty easily. But I mean, I think
Speaker 8: a lot of this sort of what we're sort of
Speaker 8: going around here is this issue of consent. Should people
Speaker 8: be able to do that? I think a lot of
Speaker 8: us would argue not under most circumstances unless someone explicitly
Speaker 8: approves of it, right.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 5: The reason one of the reasons I thought of this
Speaker 5: is so interesting is because just a few months ago,
Speaker 5: back in September, we saw the union in Hollywood that
Speaker 5: represents actors come to an agreement that included limiting the
Speaker 5: use of AI and recreating performances, And I thought to myself, well,
Speaker 5: this is a situation where, you know, the likeness of
Speaker 5: Scarlett Johansson was asked for by one of the AI
Speaker 5: companies that's a leader when it comes to this technology,
Speaker 5: and it's sort of emblematic. I think Rachel of the
Speaker 5: idea that in the future, maybe we could see these
Speaker 5: representations of folks who are maybe on a screen or
Speaker 5: in some other media that are generated by machine, like
Speaker 5: that world is not too far away.
Speaker 8: I mean, I would argue we're already there. Of there
Speaker 8: are certainly representations of people's voices, people who are still
Speaker 8: alive whose voices may not work very well on like
Speaker 8: Val Kilmer. There are representations of people who are no
Speaker 8: longer alive on either video or voice or some combination
Speaker 8: of the two. I mean, in several cases these are
Speaker 8: controlled and licensed by like the estates of these people.
Speaker 8: But certainly something I think is just getting better and better,
Speaker 8: and we're going to be saying more of in the
Speaker 8: years to come. Yeah, she's probably why Scarlett wanted to
Speaker 8: say something about it. She knows this is not the
Speaker 8: end of.
Speaker 2: This, right, Like we've done commercials, whether it was with
Speaker 2: Marilyn Monroe, Row or other celebrities. Right, Like, we've sure
Speaker 2: put there, but you do wonder, like how much further
Speaker 2: this can get? Anyway, Like you said, you wake up.
Speaker 2: This is especially for your world below. You're like, Okay,
Speaker 2: this is what's going on. It's a little crazy, but
Speaker 2: it's interesting and it gives us a chance to talk
Speaker 2: with you, which we so appreciate. Rachel, thanks so much.
Speaker 2: It is one of the stories that we're talking about
Speaker 2: a lot in the newsroom. It's like wild on social
Speaker 2: We're just kind of watching different media outlets. Everybody's covering,
Speaker 2: including us, because just trying to make spense. Since, of
Speaker 2: course Rachel Matt's Bloomberg News AI reporter there in San Francisco.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live
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Speaker 7: Let's some marvelous night for moon Dance with the Star.
Speaker 5: Okay, so you heard of Alphabet's self proclaimed at Moonshot Factory.
Speaker 5: It's the research lab X within what was then Google
Speaker 5: was founded back in twenty ten. It's the idea that
Speaker 5: it would capture the public's imagination with visions of a
Speaker 5: techno utopian world. It would help invent Think of Way
Speaker 5: mo think of Google Glass or Project Loon, which were
Speaker 5: these high altitude balloons that would beam Internet's remote locales.
Speaker 2: Love it right? It just not to love yeah wow,
Speaker 2: except for Google Lass exactly. Well, Alphabet self proclaimed moonshot
Speaker 2: Factory is coming back down to Earth servites Bloomberg News
Speaker 2: techne ledge of reporter Julia Love. She joins us now
Speaker 2: from San Francisco. Her story, by the way, one of
Speaker 2: the most read on the Bloomberg terminal today. It is
Speaker 2: also the Bloomberg Big Take on this Tuesday and available
Speaker 2: in the upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week. So be
Speaker 2: on the watch for that. Julia, All right, break it down.
Speaker 2: What is going on?
Speaker 9: Well, thank you so much for having me today. It's
Speaker 9: a really interesting crossroads for Google acts. They were founded
Speaker 9: with big hopes. It was the place where goodle was
Speaker 9: going to take these big swings and funnel its profits
Speaker 9: from the search business into finding the next bid hit
Speaker 9: in a totally unrelated industry. They made self driving cars,
Speaker 9: they launched internet connected balloons. But now it's been fourteen
Speaker 9: years and the money is starting to run dry. The
Speaker 9: lab's budget has been cut and they're shifting to a
Speaker 9: model on which they're going to be spinning out these
Speaker 9: moonshots as independent startups, which is a big change.
Speaker 5: Are these independent startups? What is their connection to Google
Speaker 5: at this point? Because the whole idea with this was
Speaker 5: that this was a within Google and it would create something.
Speaker 5: And I think a good example of this, I don't
Speaker 5: know was over at Amazon Aws for example, Like that
Speaker 5: became an incredible business at Amazon, and it was started
Speaker 5: as like a side project at Amazon. But if we
Speaker 5: think about it from Google's perspective, this was supposed to
Speaker 5: be the thing that you know, Sergey Brinn was imagining
Speaker 5: in his like techno utopia of the future. What is
Speaker 5: the connection that the company will have to these startups?
Speaker 9: Yeah, absolutely so. I think they will remain within the
Speaker 9: Alphabet family in a certain sense. In many cases, X
Speaker 9: will take the state in these startups, so it will
Speaker 9: still profit if they succeed, but they will no longer
Speaker 9: be Alphabet owned companies, And I think that the benefit
Speaker 9: of that for Alphabet is that building these businesses in
Speaker 9: far out industries takes a lot of patients. They've been
Speaker 9: at it with way Mo for well over a decade,
Speaker 9: and that BET's business model has really yet to pan out.
Speaker 9: So I think that they were kind of reaching a
Speaker 9: crossroads in which they were ready to headge their risks
Speaker 9: a little bit and find opportunities to cash in on
Speaker 9: their investment.
Speaker 2: Well, and how much of this is also kind of
Speaker 2: sharpening their financial pencils and making way kind of rating
Speaker 2: in some of the costs because of increasingly how much
Speaker 2: we've been talking about AI and the importance for this
Speaker 2: company to be positioned clearly and strongly when it comes
Speaker 2: to gen AI and all that's maybe to come.
Speaker 9: Yes, I think that is a huge part of the story.
Speaker 9: We have seen belt tightening across Goodle and X has
Speaker 9: been no exception. I think there's a feeling that the
Speaker 9: company really needs to drill down on its strengths and
Speaker 9: X projects increasingly are focused on either AI or climate change,
Speaker 9: and the lab really has been feeling budget cuts. It
Speaker 9: used to have a project to celebrate, or it used
Speaker 9: to have a party to celebrate the project that had
Speaker 9: been eliminated, and even that party has been cut sadly.
Speaker 5: Julie's what's lost here for alphabet for Google?
Speaker 9: You know in the past x. In addition to the
Speaker 9: projects that it sparked, I think it was a powerful
Speaker 9: tool for retention. It was a place that many Googlers
Speaker 9: aspired to work, and it really signaled that this was
Speaker 9: a company that was about much more than search. And
Speaker 9: now I think it does sort of raise questions about
Speaker 9: how doroodle will continue to express those ideals and what
Speaker 9: the company is really about.
Speaker 2: You know, I wonder too, like you know, this is
Speaker 2: I feel like tech entrepreneurs are always like decided to
Speaker 2: like free to dream like and kind of go different places.
Speaker 2: That luxury of having maybe a really strong core business
Speaker 2: that generates cash that you can play around. And I
Speaker 2: think in your story you point out from Google's early
Speaker 2: days you talk about, you know, the two founders made
Speaker 2: a point of fundling profits, profits from their search engine
Speaker 2: into businesses that had nothing to do with it. Out
Speaker 2: of this effortcame Gmail and Google News. Like, there are
Speaker 2: things that are so part of our lives and I'm
Speaker 2: assuming help move the needle that you do wonder when
Speaker 2: you're not able to just free to dream, like what
Speaker 2: gets lost? Kind of building on what Tim.
Speaker 9: Asked, Yeah, absolutely, I think it's a moment across the
Speaker 9: valley when we're seeing the tech giants really kind of
Speaker 9: buckle down. Amazon and Meta have also cut back on
Speaker 9: some of their moonshot style projects, but I think that
Speaker 9: we are seeing a lot more appetite to invest in
Speaker 9: deep technology in the venture capital community. And some people
Speaker 9: who I've talked to think that that is Pride Events
Speaker 9: as legacy, that it showed the value in taking these
Speaker 9: big beds.
Speaker 5: Did anything ever come of? I mean, we know weimo
Speaker 5: where WEIMO is Carol Howard just to San Francisco and
Speaker 5: we saw the weymos everywhere. Google Glass, you know, we
Speaker 5: have Apple's version of a face computer, and we have
Speaker 5: Meta's version of face can so Google cla, We're not
Speaker 5: wearing Google Glass, but certainly that idea is sticking. Project Loune, though,
Speaker 5: is that something that at all ended up sticking?
Speaker 9: Well, Interestingly, Project loun was killed, and that I think
Speaker 9: was a big turning point for Edge. It really signaled
Speaker 9: that the business model was paramount. But there's another project
Speaker 9: Tara that is still alive within the lab. It took
Speaker 9: some of Lune's technology and there's no balloons, but they
Speaker 9: transmit Internet through beams of light. And interestingly that project
Speaker 9: is now viewed as one of the best candidates for
Speaker 9: this new spin out process.
Speaker 2: So stay tuned. So still stuff will come, but just
Speaker 2: it's a little bit of a different focus. Really interesting read,
Speaker 2: and as we said, it's a Bloomberg big take and
Speaker 2: coming in the upcoming new issue of Bloomberg Business Week.
Speaker 2: Our thanks to Bloomberg News technology reporter Julia Love joining
Speaker 2: us from San Francisco, a journal how about you let
Speaker 2: me drive? Oh no, no, no, no, alright, please, I'll do
Speaker 2: the gravels.
Speaker 7: Let's wait, I.
Speaker 2: Want to try it.
Speaker 1: Keep it's good question. This is the drive to the
Speaker 1: clothes thing?
Speaker 7: Well by around?
Speaker 1: Should it on on Bloomberg Radio?
Speaker 2: All right, everybody just coming up on eighteen minutes to
Speaker 2: go until we wrap up the trading day. It's an
Speaker 2: interesting one. We're just off our highs of the session,
Speaker 2: but little change. We do get those end video results
Speaker 2: after the close, just twenty four hours roughly from net What.
Speaker 5: Is it an interesting one?
Speaker 3: Is it?
Speaker 5: No? No that I gotta keep you on us I
Speaker 5: gotta keep you honest. Abbiail do a little walk in here,
Speaker 5: and she was just like you degree that.
Speaker 2: It's just kind of one of those like waiting for
Speaker 2: GOODO kind of feeling like market datos and video. Yeah, exactly,
Speaker 2: waiting for good slash and video. Let's see what Judah
Speaker 2: Bolvin has to say as we drive to the club,
Speaker 2: because we do have to wrap up the trading day.
Speaker 2: Gina Bulvin is President Bulvin Wealth Management and she joins
Speaker 2: us on this Tuesday. Gina, it does feel like a
Speaker 2: little bit of a wait and see mode. But listen,
Speaker 2: we just got through most of earnings. There's a lot
Speaker 2: of FED speakers. We're waiting for the next FED meeting.
Speaker 2: We've got ENVD tomorrow. I don't know what's the important
Speaker 2: kind of market conversation for you right now.
Speaker 3: Hi, Carol, thank you for having me and thanks for
Speaker 3: having me back. You know we're expecting a good year
Speaker 3: in the market. I'm still bullish, but I just want
Speaker 3: to make it clear I didn't just join the party.
Speaker 3: I've been a ball since I came on a year
Speaker 3: and a half ago in January. And one of the
Speaker 3: reasons why I'm bullish is because the consumer has stayed strong.
Speaker 3: What I like really about the market this year versus
Speaker 3: last year is we're seeing an incredible broadening out we have.
Speaker 3: I think what's so interesting is we have communications services
Speaker 3: up twenty yet we have utilities up fifteen percent. Technology
Speaker 3: is up fifteen percent, energy is up thirteen percent, financials
Speaker 3: up twelve, industrials up twelve. These are all year to
Speaker 3: date numbers, all double digits returns. When you look at
Speaker 3: growth stocks and you look at value stocks, and that
Speaker 3: tells me it's a very healthy market.
Speaker 2: Well wait a minute, so on that, because Abigail Doolittle
Speaker 2: was here earlier and talking about the divergences that we
Speaker 2: are seeing kind of in different parts of the market.
Speaker 2: So right, you've got S and P NASDAQ one hundred.
Speaker 6: Right.
Speaker 2: You know, we keep talking about the various records that
Speaker 2: we've seen or trading near records. Transports are down, the
Speaker 2: socks is way down. Last time we saw, you know,
Speaker 2: a high level or its record high was back in
Speaker 2: early March. So there's divergences within the market. That makes
Speaker 2: you wonder, Okay, it's not like everybody's in the pool,
Speaker 2: the equity pool.
Speaker 3: Well I think that's true, but I think it's a
Speaker 3: very different market than it was last year, where you
Speaker 3: had the Magnificent seven really leading until the end of
Speaker 3: the year. I mean, when you in the same year,
Speaker 3: when you have utilities, comm services and technology double digits,
Speaker 3: I think that's really interesting.
Speaker 5: I want to talk a little bit about the GOODO
Speaker 5: that we're waiting for in Video, because I know that
Speaker 5: this is something that you're watching closely, Gina. As Abigail
Speaker 5: Dolittle told us a little earlier in our program, the
Speaker 5: options market is pricing in double digit moves to the
Speaker 5: upside or downside based on tomorrow's report, and I'm just
Speaker 5: wondering how you're looking at it.
Speaker 3: So I can't speak for individual stocks, but absolutely n
Speaker 3: Video has replaced Jerome Powell as the market mover right,
Speaker 3: and so much is writing on this earnings report because
Speaker 3: AI is really driving a lot of these gains in
Speaker 3: the broad market. You know, utilities and in industrials beneficiaries
Speaker 3: are derivatives of the AI AI revolution that's going on.
Speaker 3: So it's definitely it's definitely important, you know. I the
Speaker 3: wisper number of the earnings ten. I see that that's improving.
Speaker 3: And as long as it's a healthy beat. I think
Speaker 3: that's going to be good for the overall market. But
Speaker 3: keep in mind, I mean, are you an investor or
Speaker 3: are you a trader? Right, Investors buy good quality stocks
Speaker 3: and invest in certain themes for really the long term,
Speaker 3: and AI really has a long runway and a lot
Speaker 3: of stocks, a lot of sectors, even the economy in
Speaker 3: terms of productivity. All of these are going to matter
Speaker 3: over a ten year time period. And just what's going
Speaker 3: to happen tomorrow.
Speaker 2: Well, do you think the records that we've seen on
Speaker 2: the S and P and the Nasdaq one hundred are
Speaker 2: indicative of a trader's market or investors market.
Speaker 3: That's a great question, Carol, and I think I think
Speaker 3: long term investors can make money. And the reason is
Speaker 3: is because we've just come through yet another better than
Speaker 3: expected earning season and it's usually fundamentals, and it is
Speaker 3: fundamentals that are that is driving this market higher as
Speaker 3: well as we're in a better macro environment. Powell came
Speaker 3: out and he said very clearly, you know, we don't
Speaker 3: see stagflation, and all things equal, we're not going to
Speaker 3: see any interest rate hikes. We are going to get cuts.
Speaker 3: I do think we'll get one or two this year.
Speaker 3: It doesn't really matter if it's in you know, May, Jily,
Speaker 3: it's not May, but it's going to happen in July.
Speaker 3: Is it going to happen in November or soth September,
Speaker 3: It doesn't matter. Interest rates are coming down and that's
Speaker 3: what's going to help drive stocks forward as well.
Speaker 5: How are you so sure of that, though.
Speaker 3: Well, because inflation is coming down, it's still sticky, and
Speaker 3: interest rates are absolutely going to stay interest rates are
Speaker 3: absolutely going to stay higher for longer. One of the
Speaker 3: reasons why I think that interest rate that inflation is
Speaker 3: coming down is because the biggest component of CPI is housing,
Speaker 3: and housing is taking longer to show up. The decrease
Speaker 3: is taking longer to show up in CPI with the
Speaker 3: government data, but we're seeing it in private data that
Speaker 3: rents are coming down and more, there's more building, and
Speaker 3: there's more supply coming on the market. So this has
Speaker 3: just taken longer than we thought. But I do think
Speaker 3: that inflation's coming down also. You know, we're starting to
Speaker 3: see the consumer be a little bit more stringent with
Speaker 3: their spending, the consumers slowing and you know, it's like,
Speaker 3: what took so long slower demand is going to help
Speaker 3: bring prices down. You know what is really driven prices
Speaker 3: up is you know, because companies could increase prices, restaurants
Speaker 3: could stay at high prices, and because consumers are continuing
Speaker 3: to spend. If demand slows, then we're going to see
Speaker 3: some of these prices coming down. Yeah, and we're starting
Speaker 3: to see that.
Speaker 2: Okay, hey, listen, you give us a lot to think about,
Speaker 2: so appreciate it. Gina, thank you for stopping by. Gina Bolvin,
Speaker 2: she's president of Bolve and Wealth Management Group, joining us
Speaker 2: there on this Tuesday, and I think it's yeah, some
Speaker 2: things to think about. That idea of Nvidia replacing jer
Speaker 2: own Pala new kind of like triggered.
Speaker 5: Oh I love that. That's like a phrase.
Speaker 7: Hey, I love this.
Speaker 2: Eleven days until the FED blackout count it.
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