WEBVTT - Blanchflower: Brexit is a downside risk

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<v Speaker 1>Is likely, all things being equal, likely to result if

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<v Speaker 1>not a sudden stop, I wouldn't necessarily go there. But

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<v Speaker 1>in higher um risk premia on range of sterling assets,

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<v Speaker 1>higher financing costs, the consequence of that is less of

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<v Speaker 1>it will come in. People will make decisions around that um.

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<v Speaker 1>But in terms of market functioning, because you reference market functioning,

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<v Speaker 1>I just wonder minus, can I ask me just to

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<v Speaker 1>say a word on this is This is not news,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think it's important to understand that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>what we're doing as the Bank as a whole is

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<v Speaker 1>to use everything we can to mitigate any of these

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<v Speaker 1>factors in and around the reference, regardless of of of

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<v Speaker 1>of outcome. Our Our job is to try to mitigate

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe just say a word if you could. I

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<v Speaker 1>mean on the Sterling side, as there was a Bank

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<v Speaker 1>of England Governor Mark Karney. He has been talking about

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<v Speaker 1>the Bank of England's decision to issue a strong warning

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<v Speaker 1>about the impact of a decision to leave the Pan

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<v Speaker 1>Union on the British economy. The pound at the moment

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<v Speaker 1>one forty one has actually fallen after he said that

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<v Speaker 1>it is possible Britain could go into recession. This is

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Surveillance even coming into I

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<v Speaker 1>guess it's a month before right that we are expecting

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<v Speaker 1>that you could get some Dameshie pressure coming onto the

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<v Speaker 1>euro We actually think this is an opportunity rich environment

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<v Speaker 1>if you do have good research your patient and I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're going to continue to see swings and energy prices,

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<v Speaker 1>but we'll have an opportunity for the stocks to rally

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<v Speaker 1>as energy prices go back up. Bloomberg Surveillance your link

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<v Speaker 1>to the world of economics, finance and investment on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>This is w b b R New York, w d

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<v Speaker 1>C h F M Booie, Boltimore, Washington, w jay Z

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<v Speaker 1>F m HD two Catonsville, w x G S Newton,

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<v Speaker 1>w j M N ninety four point five f m

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<v Speaker 1>HD two Boston, k m W Oakland KOs F one

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<v Speaker 1>and soon is EXEM Satellite Video Channel one ninet. Welcome

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<v Speaker 1>back to Bloomberg travell and say to Clock on Wall Street.

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<v Speaker 1>I Michael McKee along with Tom Keane. The Bank of

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<v Speaker 1>England holding policy steady but suggesting there is a major

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<v Speaker 1>economic risk should the country vote to leave the European Union.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of other news happening this morning as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's check in with Karen Moscow for a news markets update.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks so much, Mike. What we do? A headline crossing

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg right now, Honeywell planning to spin off its

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<v Speaker 1>resins and chemicals business. We also had news on Monsanto,

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<v Speaker 1>as you told us, they are exploring a potential bid

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<v Speaker 1>for US competitor Monsanto, and a deal that would create

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<v Speaker 1>the world's largest supplier of seeds and farm chemicals. This

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<v Speaker 1>is according to people familiar with the matter, who say

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<v Speaker 1>the German firm has held preliminary discussions internally and with

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<v Speaker 1>advisers about buying Monsanto, which is a market value of

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<v Speaker 1>almost forty billion dollars. Futures this morning, we're watching their

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<v Speaker 1>rising as and Pemity futures up thirteen and a half

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<v Speaker 1>point to DOWI Mini Future is up eight seven NAS

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<v Speaker 1>documny future is up twenty six. The decks in Germany's

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<v Speaker 1>up six tenths percent. Ten year Treasury down e thirty seconds,

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<v Speaker 1>the yield one point seven five percent. NIMEX screwed oil

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<v Speaker 1>up one percent or forty seven cents to forty six

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<v Speaker 1>seventy of barrel comics gold is down six tents percent

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<v Speaker 1>or seven dollars thirty cents. At twelve sixty eight, announced

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<v Speaker 1>the euro a dollar thirteen eighty two, the British pound

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<v Speaker 1>a dollar forty thirty nine, and again one oh nine

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<v Speaker 1>point three four. Tom and Mike Karen thank you so much.

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<v Speaker 1>What a morning for economics and international economics will gring

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<v Speaker 1>you all the headlines from Governor Karney Lurics surveillance brought

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<v Speaker 1>to by Cone Resnick Accounting, tax advisory is economic policy changes.

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<v Speaker 1>So did business decisions speak to the experts at Cone

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<v Speaker 1>RESIDUC for forward thinking advice. You need find out more.

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<v Speaker 1>Akhon Resnick dot com. We need to find out more.

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<v Speaker 1>Michael McKee on b OE. The import of this press conference,

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<v Speaker 1>all of them are different nation today, Asian, it is

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<v Speaker 1>important that we bring in someone who's accent has not

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<v Speaker 1>been lost as to New York. John Pharaoh joins us

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<v Speaker 1>right now. John, I can honestly say I've never seen

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<v Speaker 1>a central bank governor leader chair game edown recession as

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<v Speaker 1>much as early in that Prescott. Yeah, I want to

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<v Speaker 1>take him in the room. I've been in that room

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<v Speaker 1>many times covering news conferences for Bloomberg, that was the

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<v Speaker 1>most tense news conference for Governor Krni since he took

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<v Speaker 1>the Holm, and I would say the most tense news

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<v Speaker 1>conference since Mervin King was the governor in the depths

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<v Speaker 1>of the financial crisis. A very delicate situation as a

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<v Speaker 1>politically independent central bank wades into a very political subject,

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<v Speaker 1>and the risks around Brexit is what he emphasized, Tom

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<v Speaker 1>and it's the elephant in the room. It's what he

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<v Speaker 1>called it, and a real prospect if indeed the UK

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<v Speaker 1>votes to be to leave the European Union, at least

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<v Speaker 1>in his mind, a real prospect of a recession. We'll

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<v Speaker 1>put us in context for us, if the United States

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<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve were to say, you know, there were a

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<v Speaker 1>is a a financial risk or a risk to the

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<v Speaker 1>dollar from something, it would raise political hackles from a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of people currently wading into the middle of this.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the reporters said, the British people anxious to

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<v Speaker 1>hear from an independent voice. Do people see the Bank

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<v Speaker 1>of England as more independent of politics than they think

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<v Speaker 1>of as the Federal Reserve here in the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's worth emphasizing this is probably one of

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<v Speaker 1>the most politically independent central banks on the planet. I

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<v Speaker 1>think what's not helped is the reaction of the government

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<v Speaker 1>more than the reaction of the central bank. You would

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<v Speaker 1>have noticed, Michael that as soon as we had that

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<v Speaker 1>decision from the Bank of England and as soon as

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<v Speaker 1>we got the details from the statement, Prime Minister David

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<v Speaker 1>Cameron went straight on Twitter and said he agreed with

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<v Speaker 1>the Bank of English decisions to emphasize the risks to

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<v Speaker 1>the economy. That's not going to help anybody when they're

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<v Speaker 1>trying to say that they're politically independent. John Farrell with

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<v Speaker 1>SO now joining us. A gentleman who was signed a

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<v Speaker 1>letter with a hundther economists this morning. David blanche Flower

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<v Speaker 1>is at Dartmouth College for remember of the Bank of

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<v Speaker 1>England and one of the leading critics of shades of

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<v Speaker 1>Austerie across our global economic system. Professor blanche Flower, I

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<v Speaker 1>have two quick questions. Why did you sign your letter?

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<v Speaker 1>And it seemed to be a very ecumenical letter across

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<v Speaker 1>all of economics. Yes, I think it's a very broad

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<v Speaker 1>group of people. In some sense, it reflects what Governor

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<v Speaker 1>Carney actually said, and particularly in his statement about the

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<v Speaker 1>downside risk to the UK economy from Brexit. Um, it's

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<v Speaker 1>hard to see. And if you think of risks when

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<v Speaker 1>the central banks worry about our risk balance to the

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<v Speaker 1>upside or to the downside. Essentially, what you heard from

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<v Speaker 1>him was a whole list of risks to the UK economy,

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<v Speaker 1>to the downside, to the exchange rate, to demand, to supply,

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<v Speaker 1>and he ducks questions about does brexit actually mean the

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<v Speaker 1>our word and eventually kind of hedged a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>and said, well, it's possible we could have a technical recession.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think the answer is that it looks that

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<v Speaker 1>the risks of doing so right now is economy, particularly

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<v Speaker 1>UK economy is slowing, look to the downside, and economists

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<v Speaker 1>are very worried about a leap to the unpleasant unknown.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to take the other side, professors, you know

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<v Speaker 1>we do. Gerard Lyons writing in the Times of London

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<v Speaker 1>this weekend in support of Brexit. It was a lonely

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<v Speaker 1>letter but no doubt with a large support across your

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<v Speaker 1>United Kingdom. What did Mr Lions get wrong within his

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<v Speaker 1>analysis at Brexit would not harm Britain? Well, good, good

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<v Speaker 1>friend of mine, Jared Lyons, we were actualtely graduate students together. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean Jared is a sensible economist. There are differences

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<v Speaker 1>in view, um, but I think it's much more of

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<v Speaker 1>a leap of faith. I mean there are There's another

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<v Speaker 1>letter from eight economists that Gerard signed, and essentially in

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<v Speaker 1>that letter the argument was made that it's clearly would

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<v Speaker 1>have a major impact on manufacturing, but that wouldn't actually

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<v Speaker 1>you can just let manufacturing go and freedom was a

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<v Speaker 1>good thing. But I think it was really very much

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<v Speaker 1>tied to the politics, the politics of being separate from

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<v Speaker 1>the EU, which is seen as a sort of socialist

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<v Speaker 1>way of regulating the UK economy. So I think if

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<v Speaker 1>you listen to the to the debate today, the economics

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<v Speaker 1>appear to be soundly on the side that this is

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<v Speaker 1>a downside risk. Um. Some people take the view that

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<v Speaker 1>the freedom this might bring it's a price worth paying.

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<v Speaker 1>But they have The problem they have is they haven't

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<v Speaker 1>enumerated what brexit would actually mean Brexit to what what

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<v Speaker 1>arrangement would there be? Would you would you take the

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<v Speaker 1>Norwegian model where you have a relationship with the EU,

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<v Speaker 1>you pay your money, but you don't get to vote.

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<v Speaker 1>Would it be some looser arrangement where you have to

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<v Speaker 1>do hundreds of bilateral trade deals, and President Obama said, well,

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<v Speaker 1>we wouldn't do someone simply with the US, so that

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<v Speaker 1>gives enhanced uncertainty, essentially rubber stamp today by the MPC.

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<v Speaker 1>If you I'm reading his state and it says a

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<v Speaker 1>vote to leave the U change could have material economic effects,

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<v Speaker 1>and I agree with that. Let me ask John Ferrell

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<v Speaker 1>quickly the state of the British economy right now it

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<v Speaker 1>has turned down. How much of that is cyclical? How

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<v Speaker 1>much of that is for exit uncertain I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>so incredibly difficult to strip out the uncertainty. But when

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<v Speaker 1>you look at services, Michael, the p m I is

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<v Speaker 1>at a three year low. You've got to take notice

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<v Speaker 1>and sit up and take notice of that because it

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<v Speaker 1>makes up the bulk of the economy. My question to

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<v Speaker 1>Danny at this point would be, Danny, should they be

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<v Speaker 1>cutting rates? Bottom line? Well? Actually, I think I would

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<v Speaker 1>have actually voted for a rate cut, but I certainly

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<v Speaker 1>perhaps would have been persuaded by other members of the

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<v Speaker 1>committee that that would be seen to be too political.

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<v Speaker 1>It's back to Tom and Mike's question, um, and there

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<v Speaker 1>might be a danger that that would compromise the NPC's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of credibility. But I think the evidence is clearly that,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think Kinnie was signally and the report signals it.

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<v Speaker 1>If there's a vote to Brexit, the strategy probably quite

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<v Speaker 1>clearly given the downside shock that's coming, a cut would come. Um. Obviously.

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<v Speaker 1>The other one is even if you're in remain not

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<v Speaker 1>You're right that the p m I is is slow,

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<v Speaker 1>but so it's business competence, so is the labor market.

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<v Speaker 1>Retail sales planings are falling. So I think that and

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<v Speaker 1>the market thinks that the next move will actually be

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<v Speaker 1>a cut, And yes, it will be. The question will

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<v Speaker 1>be when, well, let's it's come back. We're gonna come

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<v Speaker 1>back with Professor Blanch. We're gonna throw John Farrell out

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<v Speaker 1>of the studio. He's way too young, he's way too

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<v Speaker 1>handsome to be in here with us. But but we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to continue with Professor Blanch. There is a headline

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<v Speaker 1>which gives pause. Karney sees possibility of global negative Brexit spillovers.

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<v Speaker 1>Stay with us this important morning. Let's get you cut

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<v Speaker 1>up on what's happening around the world. We turn to

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<v Speaker 1>Michael bar Thank you very much, Mike toom. Brazil Senate

0:10:59.160 --> 0:11:02.000
<v Speaker 1>as voted to just end President dil Marusso from office

0:11:02.040 --> 0:11:05.120
<v Speaker 1>and start an impeachment trial. The vote was fifty five

0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:08.319
<v Speaker 1>twenty two. This morning, rusself is accused of illegally doctor

0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:11.120
<v Speaker 1>and fiscal accounts to hide the size of the budget deficit.

0:11:11.440 --> 0:11:14.600
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump will meet today without Speaker Paul Ryan and

0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:18.320
<v Speaker 1>other Republicans on Capitol Hill who are reluctant to support

0:11:18.360 --> 0:11:22.480
<v Speaker 1>the presumptive nominee. The Obama administration will unveil today rules

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<v Speaker 1>on the limit of methane emissions. The rule is designed

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<v Speaker 1>to produce leaks of methane from oil Wells Global News

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<v Speaker 1>twenty four hours a day, powered by our twenty four

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<v Speaker 1>around the world. I'm Michael bar to Baca bar, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much. We are monitoring the attorney press conference

0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:45.560
<v Speaker 1>in England. It is quite tense, but yet not all

0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:49.640
<v Speaker 1>market moving. As Michael McKie mentioned, sterling stronger than weaker

0:11:49.640 --> 0:11:54.640
<v Speaker 1>one on cable. That would be pound sterling as compared

0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:57.920
<v Speaker 1>to the US uh dollar. And again news from Brazil

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<v Speaker 1>President russaf uh impeach this morning will have much more

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<v Speaker 1>from England Bloomberg Surveillance. The news update brought to you

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<v Speaker 1>Business flash and I'm Karin Moscow. US stock index futures

0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:36.920
<v Speaker 1>are rising along with oil and let's go to the

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<v Speaker 1>First Word Breaking news desk for today's morning call. Here's

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<v Speaker 1>Bill Maloney. Good morning, Bill, Good morning Karen. That's right.

0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:46.400
<v Speaker 1>US futures continue to rally after yesterday sell off. DOUT

0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:49.360
<v Speaker 1>futures currently hired by ninety points, sesames gained thirteen and

0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:52.560
<v Speaker 1>a half, and NASA futures rise by twenty six. The

0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:56.520
<v Speaker 1>U S tenual at one point seven and up markets

0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:59.360
<v Speaker 1>are also rising, led by one point three percent gains

0:12:59.440 --> 0:13:02.920
<v Speaker 1>in stayin on the US Economic Frinday thirty, import price

0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:05.920
<v Speaker 1>in necks and initial jobs claims and at ten thirty

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<v Speaker 1>natural gas storage change regarding earnings this morning, Ralph Laurin

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<v Speaker 1>beat Cole's Miss shares it down seven percent pre market,

0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:17.120
<v Speaker 1>and deal News Bear said to explore bid four mon

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<v Speaker 1>Santo Man Santo is trading higher by seventeen percent pre market,

0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:25.680
<v Speaker 1>and honey Well to spin off its residents and chemicals business. Finally,

0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:28.640
<v Speaker 1>some of your Wallshet upgrades and downgrades, Santa Fe raised

0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:32.120
<v Speaker 1>overweight up Barkley's and Janie Capital cut to market reform

0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:35.160
<v Speaker 1>over at Wells Fargo Live from the first breaking news

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<v Speaker 1>task Gombo Maloney Care, Thanks bail to hear live breaking

0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:41.520
<v Speaker 1>news over your Bloomberg Times Squawk Ago on your terminal.

0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:44.439
<v Speaker 1>That's squ a w k go and that's a Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>business flash. Tom and Mike Karena, thanks so much. Futures

0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:53.280
<v Speaker 1>of Futures of eighty six, Sterling flat stronger, weaker now flat.

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<v Speaker 1>Governor Kearney continues comments on the state of the United

0:13:57.240 --> 0:14:01.840
<v Speaker 1>Kingdom and global ramifications of except Bloomberg Surveillance. This morning

0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:05.120
<v Speaker 1>brought you by Investco. Investco believes it's time to bench

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<v Speaker 1>Investco i n v s c O Investco dot Com

0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:22.920
<v Speaker 1>slash high conviction. David blanche Flower Where Dartmouth College and

0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:26.479
<v Speaker 1>we look at the headlines coming out as Governor Kearney

0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:30.640
<v Speaker 1>walks a most difficult path right now again, I go

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<v Speaker 1>back to the headline, UH, thirteen minutes ago, Karney Sea's

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<v Speaker 1>possibility of global negative Brexit spillovers. That's a tough sell

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<v Speaker 1>to a lot of people. Professor blanch Flower, why does

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<v Speaker 1>Brexit EU matter in Asia? Well, Um, the big line

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<v Speaker 1>in his in the report that global financial conditions could tighten,

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<v Speaker 1>perhaps because risks of break up in the rest of

0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:01.960
<v Speaker 1>the European Union would probably follow up on me. I

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<v Speaker 1>mean there are these words what grexit and nexit and

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<v Speaker 1>other things. I mean the assumption is that aggregate demand

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<v Speaker 1>in the UK and Europe falls and this has spill over.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, the thing we learned in two thousand and

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<v Speaker 1>eight is once that once something falls we saw in

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<v Speaker 1>the US, it has implications to the rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 1>That's in a sense what globalization means. We actually are

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<v Speaker 1>all in these things together. What happens in financial markets

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<v Speaker 1>in Europe has implications for the rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think I think he's right to warn that

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<v Speaker 1>the big the big question is why did the MPC

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<v Speaker 1>duck making an actual mathematical forecast as to what it

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<v Speaker 1>would mean if there was a Brexit? And that's what

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of questioning in the press conference has been about.

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<v Speaker 1>On the one side, um Um karnis trying to say,

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<v Speaker 1>we need to be careful about the politics. But but

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<v Speaker 1>the questions there were you given us the words what

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<v Speaker 1>about the numbers? Um And he said, they talked about

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<v Speaker 1>being a shock to the pound, and he wouldn't answer

0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:10.320
<v Speaker 1>when they was asked, well, it's gone down nine in

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<v Speaker 1>the last near you know, in the last few months.

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<v Speaker 1>How much of a shot do you think it would

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<v Speaker 1>be a shock. So obviously that that's an issue. But

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<v Speaker 1>I think this means in a global economy, which we

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<v Speaker 1>saw in two thousand and eight, a big negative shock

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<v Speaker 1>to the fifth largest economy in the world would have

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<v Speaker 1>implications everywhere else. Now, Governor Karney said, should that happen,

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<v Speaker 1>the Bank of England obviously has scope to lower interest

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<v Speaker 1>rates there at fifty basis points, so they could cut

0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:45.040
<v Speaker 1>the base rate. But uh, there is a going into

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<v Speaker 1>the eating. There was a forecast of chance of a

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<v Speaker 1>rate cut from the Bank of England this year based

0:16:54.560 --> 0:16:59.240
<v Speaker 1>on economic developments as measured by swap rates. What's your

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<v Speaker 1>likely scenario for BOE policy outside of Brexit? A very

0:17:06.720 --> 0:17:10.040
<v Speaker 1>good question, Mike. I think the telling thing that Carni

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<v Speaker 1>said was that the evidence is that the UK economy

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<v Speaker 1>is slowing um. He actually said that the MPC decided

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<v Speaker 1>that half of that was probably because of the fears

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<v Speaker 1>of Brexit, and the suspicion would be if there was

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<v Speaker 1>no Brexit vote then things would turn around, but he

0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:32.200
<v Speaker 1>said there are a risk to that. So the risk

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<v Speaker 1>here is actually that I think there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>evidence in the data that in fact, the UK economy

0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:41.520
<v Speaker 1>started to turn perhaps before this Brexit idea became so

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<v Speaker 1>close to people's minds, particularly because the poles are so close.

0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:46.880
<v Speaker 1>But it looks to me that the labor market turned down,

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<v Speaker 1>the p M ized business confidence can turn down, consumer

0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:53.639
<v Speaker 1>confidence turned down, and retail sales volumes did too, so

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<v Speaker 1>even in the face of the market yield of generating

0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:01.960
<v Speaker 1>more stimulus. So I think that really is the question.

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<v Speaker 1>It looks to me that even on the remain side,

0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:09.280
<v Speaker 1>the forecast is overly optimistic. There's still forecasting a huge

0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:13.160
<v Speaker 1>jumping investment next year, that wage growth will suddenly instead

0:18:13.200 --> 0:18:15.640
<v Speaker 1>of falling as it's been doing recently, it will suddenly

0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:19.840
<v Speaker 1>jump again. So this puts a highly optimistic forecast even

0:18:19.880 --> 0:18:22.000
<v Speaker 1>if there's a remain. So my view would be the

0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:24.399
<v Speaker 1>market is right. I think the next move will be

0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:27.240
<v Speaker 1>a cut. The questions simply will be when, and it

0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:28.800
<v Speaker 1>will be true that there will be a cut, whether

0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:32.880
<v Speaker 1>there's a remain or or Brexit, and especially as a Brexit,

0:18:32.960 --> 0:18:35.320
<v Speaker 1>we will that will be a major negative shot to

0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:39.760
<v Speaker 1>the UK economy. There are the constant question is what

0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:43.600
<v Speaker 1>if the UK votes for Brexit, what will be the implications?

0:18:43.640 --> 0:18:46.639
<v Speaker 1>But what if they vote to stay in what happens?

0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:51.200
<v Speaker 1>What happens June? You know the day after? Yeah, well,

0:18:51.840 --> 0:18:54.920
<v Speaker 1>essentially you carry on in the same way. I mean,

0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:58.440
<v Speaker 1>that's what the forecast has been. And then there has

0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:01.280
<v Speaker 1>to be a kind of a clerk vacation as to

0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:05.040
<v Speaker 1>whether the slowing was really driven by the fear of

0:19:05.160 --> 0:19:08.520
<v Speaker 1>leading or not, because once the Brexit votes, say, has

0:19:08.560 --> 0:19:12.199
<v Speaker 1>been turned down, then you get clarity. Um, but there

0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:14.440
<v Speaker 1>will you know, So I think that's what we'll see.

0:19:14.440 --> 0:19:17.199
<v Speaker 1>But I think the reality is that um, that the

0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:20.320
<v Speaker 1>UK economy had started the slow already. And and the story,

0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:22.560
<v Speaker 1>of course is the timing of this boat. I think

0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:25.560
<v Speaker 1>I've said on your program anytimes the business cycle turns

0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:28.679
<v Speaker 1>were about eight years in to um, you know, a

0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:31.480
<v Speaker 1>shot aim in the start of two thousand and eight one,

0:19:31.520 --> 0:19:34.320
<v Speaker 1>where we're in two thousand and sixteen. Presumably another shop

0:19:34.400 --> 0:19:37.560
<v Speaker 1>is coming or has actually probably arrived, and central bankers

0:19:37.560 --> 0:19:39.960
<v Speaker 1>are very bad at picking those turning points. So my

0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:43.440
<v Speaker 1>great questions, but I think the downside shock is relevant

0:19:43.440 --> 0:19:47.480
<v Speaker 1>in both scenarios. Never enough time, David Blashflower, anybody far

0:19:47.680 --> 0:19:51.240
<v Speaker 1>Dartmouth College, thank you so much. He again signed a

0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:55.320
<v Speaker 1>letter with a hundred ninety nine other economists today pushing

0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:59.919
<v Speaker 1>back against Brexit. From New York, Michael McKeon turn King

0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:06.879
<v Speaker 1>Governor Kearney still speaking, Bloomberg surveillance coming up there, with

0:20:06.920 --> 0:20:08.760
<v Speaker 1>all due respect. Highlight brought you by land Roper. If

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