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Speaker 3: Slash audio. All right, welcome to Hoops tonight.
Speaker 2: You're at the volume heavy Monday, everybody of bald You
Speaker 2: guys had a great weekend.
Speaker 3: Got a jampacks show for you guys.
Speaker 2: Guys. This morning, we're going to be reacting to the
Speaker 2: Indiana Pacers beat down of the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.
Speaker 2: I was trying to think of a way to express it.
Speaker 2: Here's the best way I could express what happened to
Speaker 2: the Calves last night. They outscored the Pacers seventy to
Speaker 2: forty nine in the second half and lost by twenty
Speaker 2: with one of the most destructive performances I've seen in
Speaker 2: my time as a basketball fan, as the Pacers beat
Speaker 2: up on the Caves to take a three to one
Speaker 2: lead in that series. We'll be breaking down that game
Speaker 2: from the perspective of both teams. Then after that, we're
Speaker 2: about halfway through the second round at this point, and
Speaker 2: I want to take some time just to zoom out
Speaker 2: and look at all four series, and I want to
Speaker 2: talk about, like where I'm at with all those series
Speaker 2: at this point, what I think will happen moving forward,
Speaker 2: and what I've learned about the teams involved with those series.
Speaker 2: So we'll briefly touch on all four series at the
Speaker 2: tail end of the show. You guys are the joke
Speaker 2: before we get started. Subscribed to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels.
Speaker 2: Who don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me
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Speaker 2: Don't forget about o podcast fee, where we get your
Speaker 2: pop castner hoops tonight. It's also super helpful if you
Speaker 2: leave a rating in a review on that Fron Jackson's
Speaker 2: doing great work on our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram,
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Speaker 2: but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in the YouTube
Speaker 2: comments so we keep hitting them throughout the remainder of
Speaker 2: the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So we
Speaker 2: talked after Game one. If you remember about how that
Speaker 2: game was an awesome introduction for any casual fan who
Speaker 2: doesn't really know what the Pacers do. It was an
Speaker 2: opportunity for them to learn about Pacers basketball and what
Speaker 2: it looks like. And yet somehow last night put even
Speaker 2: that performance to shame. It was a complete two way
Speaker 2: dominance in the first half that left absolutely no chance
Speaker 2: for recovery, as the Pacers outscore the Cavs eighty to
Speaker 2: thirty nine in the first half, making it so that
Speaker 2: even though they got blown out in the second half,
Speaker 2: they still ended up winning by twenty. They dominated literally
Speaker 2: every single facet of the game. I want to start
Speaker 2: with their defense. They completely flummixed the Calves offense with
Speaker 2: relentless ball pressure picking up before any any guard had
Speaker 2: a chance to like get ahead of steam going up
Speaker 2: the court, they're running into a pacer that was flattening
Speaker 2: them out and getting rid of any of that pace
Speaker 2: that they were trying to bring into the front court.
Speaker 2: It was affecting everybody, Even Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland
Speaker 2: were struggling against the pressure. They were picking up after missus.
Speaker 2: They're picking up after makes it completely shut down any
Speaker 2: of the transition opportunities that are such an important part
Speaker 2: of the Caves offense. The Cavs log just two transition
Speaker 2: points total in that first half during that run, and
Speaker 2: that again, you're just cutting off the most important part
Speaker 2: of that Calves offense. Again, we talked about this before
Speaker 2: early in the season when when we were discussing like
Speaker 2: the three things that made the Calves a different team
Speaker 2: than last year. If you guys remember, it was just
Speaker 2: the overall improvement of Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. Both
Speaker 2: of them are injured in this series. Darius Garland playing
Speaker 2: on a toe that's apparently splinted up so tight that
Speaker 2: it relieves pain, but that he can't actually bend the toe.
Speaker 2: And then Evan Mobley playing on a bad ankle, and
Speaker 2: so you get the two guys that are bringing the
Speaker 2: gigantic improvement year over year both banged up. Secondly the
Speaker 2: switching and forcing turnovers and thirdly the getting out in
Speaker 2: transition and so essentially a little bit of talent influx
Speaker 2: with Garland and Mobley, and then they're turning teams over
Speaker 2: by switching and playing passing lanes, and they're playing a
Speaker 2: ton of transition basketball with a lot of pace moving
Speaker 2: the ball around, and so Pacers don't turn the ball over.
Speaker 2: They're picking you up and preventing your transition pushes with
Speaker 2: ball pressure.
Speaker 3: And the two you.
Speaker 2: Know, talent ads so to speak, for the Cavs this year,
Speaker 2: are not anywhere near one hundred percent physically, and that
Speaker 2: has just completely flipped this dynamic to becoming a massive problem.
Speaker 2: Even Donovan Mitchell struggled, though Donovan Mitchell has killed the
Speaker 2: Pacers in this series, and he was just three for
Speaker 2: eleven with zero assists and two turnovers in that first
Speaker 2: half run for the Pacers. The Pacers dominated the glass,
Speaker 2: They out rebounded the Cavs twenty two to fifteen in
Speaker 2: the first half, and then they just put on an
Speaker 2: offensive clinic a one point fifty seven offensive rating in transition,
Speaker 2: a one thirty six offensive rating in the half court,
Speaker 2: which is astronomical. They generated fourteen catch and shoot jump
Speaker 2: shots and made ten of them. That's two point one
Speaker 2: four points per shot. They hammered post mismatches right away
Speaker 2: to start the game. Like one of the first possessions,
Speaker 2: it's Aaron Nee Smith is posting up Darius Garland and
Speaker 2: they throw it to him. He draws a double team
Speaker 2: swing swing, wide open three. They're posting Siakam against Max Strus,
Speaker 2: They're posting Miles Turner against a bunch of the Cleveland guards,
Speaker 2: and they Cleveland just didn't have the ability to prevent
Speaker 2: those mismatches from burning them. One of the things that
Speaker 2: Indiana does really well is they throw the skip pass,
Speaker 2: and when you throw the skip pass, that's what burns
Speaker 2: a typical post front bracket coverage. So we talked about
Speaker 2: this coverage a lot with like the Miami Heat, because
Speaker 2: they post, they front the post all the time, but
Speaker 2: when you try to front the post, there's a passing
Speaker 2: angle over the top. You try to close that window
Speaker 2: by having a guy come from the weak side and
Speaker 2: basically bracket on the other side of the post player.
Speaker 2: But that's what opens up the skip pass, and the
Speaker 2: Calves are so paranoid about the skip pass that that
Speaker 2: guy's staying home, and so there's just a huge passing
Speaker 2: window to float the ball over the top to these
Speaker 2: against these post fronts, and the Pacers just made really
Speaker 2: good post entry passes all night and just continually burned
Speaker 2: the Calves every single time they switched ball screens.
Speaker 3: They lit up the zone.
Speaker 2: We talked after game two about how the Pacers kind
Speaker 2: of started to figure out the zone in the second half. Well,
Speaker 2: they did really well against it again tonight. They faced
Speaker 2: it eight times in the first half and scored on
Speaker 2: six of those possessions. Every which way they beat it
Speaker 2: by flashing middle, getting the ball to Siakam and shooters
Speaker 2: relocating off of it. They generated a wide open three
Speaker 2: frame nemhard that way. They beat it with the skip
Speaker 2: pass TJ McConnell on the right wing. The low man
Speaker 2: on the left side was sunk all the way into
Speaker 2: the paint. Rifles will skip past to Thomas Bryant, who
Speaker 2: it's a mildly contested three out of the left corner.
Speaker 2: They beat it by screening the top man ball screen
Speaker 2: at the top Obi top en rolls out of it,
Speaker 2: ball in the pocket, left handed layup. Similar type of
Speaker 2: thing Tyre's Halliburton with Thomas Bryant. Thomas Bryant rolls. When
Speaker 2: he rolls, the low man has to grab him. Tyree
Speaker 2: swings the ball. It gets skipped all the way back
Speaker 2: to the corner because the guy who would be responsible
Speaker 2: for the corner is now guarding Thomas Bryant on the roll.
Speaker 2: Another wide open three on the weak side that goes in.
Speaker 2: They beat it with the flair screen. The three that
Speaker 2: Tyre's Halliburton hit that was like twenty seven to twenty
Speaker 2: eight feet off of the right wing. All that was
Speaker 2: is they flare screen the top man. Max Struce was
Speaker 2: the other top man, but he was sunk into the
Speaker 2: paint covering a flasher skip over the top wide open
Speaker 2: three for Tyre's Halliburton, it goes in. The Pacers basically
Speaker 2: just ran their same man demand principles that they always
Speaker 2: run against the zone and it worked extremely well as
Speaker 2: they basically just played the calves out of that zone.
Speaker 2: I look at the Indiana Pacers like a machine, and
Speaker 2: that machine was operating at peak efficiency on both ends
Speaker 2: of the floor last night, and it just chewed up
Speaker 2: and spit out the Caves and they had absolutely no chance.
Speaker 2: When the Pacers are playing like that, you just get
Speaker 2: to lose. And it's an interesting dynamic to keep in
Speaker 2: mind for the Conference finals. There's just a higher level
Speaker 2: that they can get to on both ends of the
Speaker 2: floor this year, as all of their players have made
Speaker 2: moderate improvements, even their star Tyree Saliburton, just because he's
Speaker 2: healthier than he was in years past. So before we
Speaker 2: get to the Calves, I just want to go into
Speaker 2: our next segment because I think this will be a
Speaker 2: good kind of format for us to touch base on
Speaker 2: the series kind of zooming out as well as what
Speaker 2: the Calves are going through in terms of the slander
Speaker 2: that they're catching all over the NBA world today. So again,
Speaker 2: what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna go through all
Speaker 2: four series and we'll start with Pacers Calves. But I
Speaker 2: want to just talk with where I'm at with the
Speaker 2: series in terms of just what I expect moving forward,
Speaker 2: and then I want to talk about what we've learned
Speaker 2: about the teams involved, So Pacers, Calves. Where am I
Speaker 2: at at this point? It's certainly not over. We know
Speaker 2: the Calves can beat the Pacers at home, they basically
Speaker 2: did in Game two, they just tricked it off. And
Speaker 2: we know that the Calves can beat the Pacers in Indy.
Speaker 2: They just did it in Game three they blow them out.
Speaker 2: But they're just operating so far below their ceiling right
Speaker 2: now that I view it as pretty unlikely. They're completely
Speaker 2: shook by just the dynamic at play and they're losing
Speaker 2: confidence and a lot of specific parts of their roster,
Speaker 2: like Ty Jerome came in and immediately started turning the
Speaker 2: ball over again.
Speaker 3: It's I've.
Speaker 2: As big of a drop off from regular season performance
Speaker 2: to playoff performance in this series that I can remember
Speaker 2: from a player, Like he was the best guard that
Speaker 2: I watched off the bench in the NBA this year.
Speaker 2: I actually thought he was better than Peyton Prichard, and
Speaker 2: Peyton Richard was amazing in Madison Square Garden in Game
Speaker 2: three and has been a deeply useful player for the
Speaker 2: for the Celtics, and Ti Jerome has been like has
Speaker 2: literally decomposed in this series. It's absolutely wild DeAndre Hunter
Speaker 2: came in and was missing jumpers so bad wide left
Speaker 2: that you could literally tell on the broadcast as the
Speaker 2: ball was coming out of his hands that it was
Speaker 2: going to be off to the left, Like he was
Speaker 2: just completely out of sorts with his jump shot. Jared
Speaker 2: Allen was like brutally bad on defense in this game,
Speaker 2: like consistently out of position, just like misreading plays, like
Speaker 2: overplaying a like a random pressure of a high post
Speaker 2: catch from like Thomas Bryant that ends up giving up
Speaker 2: a layup, or jumping onto the wrong side of a
Speaker 2: screen with Dean Wade and giving up a driving lane
Speaker 2: going to the opposite side of the screen like he
Speaker 2: was bad in this game. Garland looks like a shell
Speaker 2: of himself. And then again, this was the first game
Speaker 2: where they held Donovan Mitchell in check. So like, I
Speaker 2: even though I think we all know the Cavs can
Speaker 2: win this series, Like it's really simple. You go home
Speaker 2: and you beat the Pacers. Go and beat the Pacers
Speaker 2: at home, you're certainly capable of it. You go back
Speaker 2: to Indy and you beat them like you did in
Speaker 2: game three, and then you have Game seven at home
Speaker 2: where anything can happen. I just don't think the Calves
Speaker 2: are playing like the Calves right now. If you really
Speaker 2: zoom out of this series, the only game where they
Speaker 2: really looked like the Calves was Game three, and in
Speaker 2: all three of the other games, even Game two when
Speaker 2: they won, it was like they were kind of hanging
Speaker 2: on for dear life for the most part and getting
Speaker 2: the shit kicked out of them in most of the
Speaker 2: moments of the series. And so I'm guessing the Pacers
Speaker 2: end up closing this out in six. I bet they
Speaker 2: go up to Cleveland drop Game five, and then come
Speaker 2: home and blow out the Calves to win in Game six.
Speaker 2: But certainly the Calves have a chance, But at this
Speaker 2: point I would be surprised if the Pacers didn't win.
Speaker 3: Now what have I learned?
Speaker 2: Honestly, the series hasn't gone that much differently than I expected.
Speaker 2: I picked the Calves in six. I specifically said to
Speaker 2: Carter in our series preview that I thought Indiana was
Speaker 2: a very similar team to Cleveland that would cause them
Speaker 2: lots of issues in the series, and I expected them
Speaker 2: to win multiple games. What has happened is the Racers
Speaker 2: stole a game they should have lost. They were down
Speaker 2: seven with forty seconds left in Game two and stole
Speaker 2: that game. And then the Calves are also pretty substantially
Speaker 2: beat up by injuries, and so those two things have
Speaker 2: been enough to flip the outcome to where Indiana looks
Speaker 2: like the better team by a reasonable chunk, similar to
Speaker 2: what I expected from the Calves before the series. That said,
Speaker 2: I want to be clear, even though that dynamic has flipped,
Speaker 2: I've also been super impressed by Indy. The way that
Speaker 2: their offense and their defense has had this level of
Speaker 2: success against a very good Calves team has given me
Speaker 2: a lot more optimism that they absolutely can beat a
Speaker 2: Boston in the Conference finals. They certainly could beat in
Speaker 2: New York. So I viewed the Pacers as a substantial
Speaker 2: finals threat now in a way that I didn't see
Speaker 2: them last year, because they're in just such a great
Speaker 2: offensive groove and they're so connected defensively right now. And
Speaker 2: so yeah, like the Pacers have shown themselves to be
Speaker 2: the better team at this point. There's just some context
Speaker 2: in terms of the Calves operating well below their peak
Speaker 2: in terms of some injuries. But credit to Pacers this
Speaker 2: is it's equal both ways. Like the Pacers have blown
Speaker 2: them out in two of these games, and if you
Speaker 2: really kind of zoom out, the Pacers have had a
Speaker 2: ton of success that has been related to just how
Speaker 2: great the Pacers are. That is separate from some of
Speaker 2: the issues that the Calves are having with injuries and
Speaker 2: their flow and their confidence and that sort of stuff. So,
Speaker 2: like again, like I just want to I just want
Speaker 2: to make sure that we give that credit to the
Speaker 2: Pacers as well, and that it's.
Speaker 3: Not just a Calves thing.
Speaker 2: On the Calves front, I see a lot of people
Speaker 2: burying them today. I've seen a lot of the twenty
Speaker 2: fifteen Hawks references getting thrown around. And here's all I'll
Speaker 2: say about that. I was a basketball fan during that age.
Speaker 2: I remember watching the twenty fifteen Hawks. The twy fifteen
Speaker 2: Hawks were a mediocre basketball team that just beat up on.
Speaker 3: The Eastern Conference.
Speaker 2: This Calves team showed an obvious upside and had an
Speaker 2: obvious like talent level that they had in terms of
Speaker 2: the level Darius Garland was playing at before he got hurt,
Speaker 2: the level Donovan Mitchell was playing at all season, the
Speaker 2: level Even Mobley was playing out all season. Jared Allen
Speaker 2: kind of encroaching on that top seven, top six centers
Speaker 2: in the NBA, the level of play they were getting
Speaker 2: from ty Jrome off the bench, the elite catch and
Speaker 2: shoot play down the roster. This is a more talented,
Speaker 2: more dynamic team by a substantial margin than the twenty
Speaker 2: fifteen Hawks. They run into a very hot, very good
Speaker 2: Indiana Pacers team, and they're way below their peak efficiency
Speaker 2: because Darius Garland is like the guy that drives their offense. Darius,
Speaker 2: Like I talked about this all year. I like Donovan Mitchell,
Speaker 2: I really do. I think he's a great player, but
Speaker 2: I've talked about it throughout the year that I view
Speaker 2: Darius Garland as like their most important offensive player because
Speaker 2: he's the guy that the dynamic I kept talking about
Speaker 2: all season was just his ability to get dribble penetration.
Speaker 2: He gets dribble penetration on everyone, and that just instantly
Speaker 2: compromises your defense from like the start of the shot
Speaker 2: clock and you're just chasing your tail the rest of
Speaker 2: the possession because Darius Garland is so damn fast that
Speaker 2: he can get to wherever he wants to on the floor.
Speaker 2: Darius Garland with a bad toe can't. Like there was
Speaker 2: a possession against TJ. McConnell in the first half where
Speaker 2: he's just trying to dribble around him on the left wing,
Speaker 2: and like TJ, looks faster than him, and like TJ
Speaker 2: is a very good athlete, TJ is like one of
Speaker 2: the most underrated dribble penetration guys in the league. But
Speaker 2: Darius is faster than him, and Darius would look slower
Speaker 2: than him in that matchup on the left wing. And
Speaker 2: so like Darius Garland is like quote unquote the head
Speaker 2: of the Snake for their offense in terms of their
Speaker 2: ability to get the defense and rotation. Donovan Mitchell is
Speaker 2: a capable passer who has grown as a passer over
Speaker 2: the course of his career, but he is a scorer.
Speaker 2: That is what he does, and he has tried to
Speaker 2: solve problems in this series by scoring the basketball. Darius
Speaker 2: Garland is the guy who greases the wheels of their
Speaker 2: offense and gets the ball moving from side to side,
Speaker 2: gets the defense into rotation, and so having him be
Speaker 2: operating that far below his capability has substantially changed the
Speaker 2: way the Calves play offense from the regular season, even
Speaker 2: if you watched that first half, just the level of
Speaker 2: involvement from Darius Garland compared to what it would look
Speaker 2: like when you'd watch the Calves back in like January, December, February,
Speaker 2: it's just so different, missing that bit of explosion from
Speaker 2: Darius Garland. So like, here's the thing. Were the Calves
Speaker 2: as good as the thunder No? Were the Calves as
Speaker 2: good as the Celtics.
Speaker 3: No.
Speaker 2: Coming into the playoffs, I ranked them as the fourth
Speaker 2: most likely team to win the championship. So I wasn't
Speaker 2: quite as high on the Calves as everyone else was.
Speaker 2: That said, after that Heat series, their offense was clicking
Speaker 2: at such a level that I did view them as
Speaker 2: a legitimate threat, a puncher's chance threat to beat the
Speaker 2: Boston Celtics, so much so that I was like, at
Speaker 2: least considering the idea that I would potentially pay them
Speaker 2: in a Celtic series. But then Darius Garland gets hurt.
Speaker 2: They're never able to recapture that offensive verb that they
Speaker 2: had before the Darius Garland injury, and now it just
Speaker 2: looks like they're dead in the water. And so again
Speaker 2: I think it's a little bit of both. Are they
Speaker 2: a little bit overrated from what they looked like as
Speaker 2: a sixty four win regular season team. Yes, are they
Speaker 2: the twenty fifteen Hawks? No, they're They're certainly better than that.
Speaker 2: That's kind of how I felt about the Calves after
Speaker 2: tonight and the last night, and honestly, like, as far
Speaker 2: as the future holds for the Calves, like Darius Garland
Speaker 2: has had perpetual injury issues throughout his career, and it's
Speaker 2: just something to keep in mind that he finally has
Speaker 2: this super healthy season where he looks like an All
Speaker 2: NBA caliber guard and then he just breaks down at
Speaker 2: the tail end of the season. It's just super unfortunate.
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Speaker 3: All Right, Boston, New York? Where am I at? With
Speaker 3: the series? Right? Now, the Knicks.
Speaker 2: Only needed to win one game at Madison Square Garden
Speaker 2: to put themselves in great spot to win the series.
Speaker 2: So even though they lost Game three, it's certainly not
Speaker 2: over for them. They have a very good chance to
Speaker 2: win Game four tonight. So the way I would express
Speaker 2: their chances is like this. I think tonight they have
Speaker 2: about a coin flip chance to beat Boston. If Boston
Speaker 2: goes in and doesn't shoot the ball as well, it'll
Speaker 2: be another rockfight, and in a rock fight, if they
Speaker 2: can keep things close enough, Jalen Brunson has the ability
Speaker 2: to close things late, So call it about a coin
Speaker 2: flip chance. If they win that game, they're up three
Speaker 2: to one, and the next three games you're in Boston
Speaker 2: for Game five, back to MSG for Game six, and
Speaker 2: then in Boston for Game seven. I think they have
Speaker 2: about a coin flip chance to win one of those
Speaker 2: next three games, because even an MSG game in game six,
Speaker 2: if it's three to two, that's an elimination game. You're
Speaker 2: going to get a better effort from Boston. Then you'll
Speaker 2: even get tonight necessarily, right, So I viewed about a
Speaker 2: fifty percent chance to win a win tonight and about
Speaker 2: a fifty percent chance to win one of the following
Speaker 2: three games if they win tonight. So a basic, you know,
Speaker 2: kind of a transitive way to look at it is
Speaker 2: fifty percent, fifty percent is twenty five percent. So I
Speaker 2: look at it like seventy five twenty five in favor
Speaker 2: of Boston to win the series at this point, moving forward,
Speaker 2: now with each team, what have we learned With the Celtics.
Speaker 2: I said coming into the postseason that I viewed them
Speaker 2: as the best team available among all the sixteen teams
Speaker 2: because of their combination of two way talent. They just
Speaker 2: have the best assortment of players that can successfully play
Speaker 2: on both ends of the floor in the playoffs, combined
Speaker 2: with the veteran experience necessary to be comfortable and to
Speaker 2: make adjustments and to do all the things that you
Speaker 2: to handle all the things that you encounter typically in
Speaker 2: the postseason. I think that through this series that ceiling
Speaker 2: has been expressed. I should say through this postseason to
Speaker 2: this point, they've shown their ceiling. Game three against New
Speaker 2: York was a perfect example of it. I still believe
Speaker 2: in that ceiling. However, Boston has demonstrated that they're just
Speaker 2: a little bit more rickety, a little bit more prone
Speaker 2: to showing their floor than we originally thought, to the
Speaker 2: point where they dropped a very very important Game two
Speaker 2: at home showing that floor. So like, while I feel
Speaker 2: kind of still the same way about the Boston Celtics
Speaker 2: and what they can reach in terms of their top end,
Speaker 2: I kind of view their range of potential outcomes as lower.
Speaker 2: So like I'm at this point, like I wouldn't be
Speaker 2: surprised that they won the title, but I also wouldn't
Speaker 2: be surprised that they lost in this round. And that
Speaker 2: just kind of shows the wide range of outcomes. And
Speaker 2: the main thing that is really manifested in terms of
Speaker 2: the basketball side of it is they don't have an
Speaker 2: audible when their drive and kick generate quality three's offense
Speaker 2: doesn't work. They don't have offensive versatility in terms of
Speaker 2: finding a legit like fifty plus percent guy who can
Speaker 2: get down ten feet inside of the basket and hit
Speaker 2: a hook shot or a short turnaround or anything at
Speaker 2: at a level that is impervious to variants.
Speaker 3: They are inherently.
Speaker 2: Vulnerable to variants, and that is the part that kind
Speaker 2: of brings that low floor into the equation. And so
Speaker 2: that just kind of makes them vulnerable as a defending champion.
Speaker 2: Here on the Knicks fronts basically basically been the quality
Speaker 2: of their defense that has impressed me. They did not
Speaker 2: defend very well in Game three, but they've had extended
Speaker 2: stretches between the Piston series and this series where they've
Speaker 2: shown some really high level defense. Jalen Brunson in particular,
Speaker 2: I think is having one of his better defensive postseasons.
Speaker 2: Kats still struggling, but overall their defense has been sturdier
Speaker 2: than I expected it to be in this series, and
Speaker 2: so I think we deserve the Knicks deserved to get
Speaker 2: some credit on that end of the floor. Denver OKC,
Speaker 2: I feel like both of the Western Conference series, I've
Speaker 2: had pretty good feel for this series. I've been pretty
Speaker 2: much on top of I said before the series that
Speaker 2: I picked OKCE in seven. I said that Denver would
Speaker 2: legitimately threaten them with their size. I thought it was
Speaker 2: a favorable matchup and that they would have a legitimate
Speaker 2: chance to win. And they did have their legitimate chance
Speaker 2: to win. It was yesterday. It was in the fourth
Speaker 2: quarter when they were up eight on a Peyton Watson
Speaker 2: hook shot with about eleven and a half minutes left
Speaker 2: that put them in commanding position to take a three
Speaker 2: to one lead in the series, and their best player
Speaker 2: could make a shot, and that really was the series.
Speaker 3: To me.
Speaker 2: If Nikola Jokic played like the guy that he was
Speaker 2: capable of being the best player in the world as
Speaker 2: a shot maker on the offensive side of the ball,
Speaker 2: I think Denver's up three to one and wins this series.
Speaker 2: He wasn't credit Okac's defense too. We went over it
Speaker 2: last night. It's the specific dynamic of having a sizable
Speaker 2: center in Isaiah Hartenstein that can be on the ball
Speaker 2: while also having a center that can protect the rim behind. Essentially,
Speaker 2: we've seen teams put their four man on Jokich and
Speaker 2: put a rim protector behind him, but that fore man
Speaker 2: is not big enough to handle Jokic. Only Minnesota and
Speaker 2: Oklahoma City have shown the ability to put two fives
Speaker 2: on the floor, and the idea of having a legitimate
Speaker 2: five on Jokic while also having a Rudy Gobert or
Speaker 2: chet holmgrin behind him forces him to make over the
Speaker 2: top shots. In the Minnesota series, Jokis was actually able
Speaker 2: to make over the top shots and so the games
Speaker 2: were more competitive. They had better chances to win. But
Speaker 2: in this series, Yokich has had a nightmare time making
Speaker 2: anything outside of like three feet in front of the rim,
Speaker 2: and so as a result of that, they just haven't
Speaker 2: been able to generate enough offense to keep this series
Speaker 2: within reach for them. So it looks like at this
Speaker 2: point if I had to guess what will happen. If
Speaker 2: I had a guess right now, I actually think okay
Speaker 2: C's gonna win this thing in six. The main reason
Speaker 2: why is I think that we're gonna see I think
Speaker 2: that we're gonna see Denver get their butt kicked in
Speaker 2: game five. I think Okaye's gonna get them pretty good.
Speaker 2: And then it's I feel like that Game six at home.
Speaker 2: A big part of it is belief. You need your
Speaker 2: guys to actually feel like they have a real chance
Speaker 2: to go back on the road and win a game seven,
Speaker 2: and I think that they'd have a pretty small chance
Speaker 2: to win Game seven. So I wouldn't be the least
Speaker 2: bit surprised if we actually saw Denver lose this series
Speaker 2: in six, drop Game five up in Oklahoma City and
Speaker 2: end up losing back at home. I wanted to pull
Speaker 2: these these shot making numbers because I think these are fascinating.
Speaker 2: This is from the last three games. Jokich is four
Speaker 2: for fifteen on above the break threes, that's twenty six
Speaker 2: point seven percent. He's zero for two on corner threes,
Speaker 2: mid range jump shots. This is an area where he's
Speaker 2: usually been really efficient. He's just five for fifteen from
Speaker 2: the field. That's just thirty three percent in the paint,
Speaker 2: non restricted area. So these are like the floaters and
Speaker 2: the touch shots. These are shots that Jokic has routinely
Speaker 2: in his career hit sixty five sixty five, seventy percent
Speaker 2: of He's just seven for seventeen in the last three games.
Speaker 2: That's forty one point two percent. And then in the
Speaker 2: restricted area, a place where he's typically north of seventy percent,
Speaker 2: He's just five for nine in the last three games,
Speaker 2: which is just fifty five point six percent. So Jokicic
Speaker 2: has just really really struggled with his shot making, and
Speaker 2: I just don't think he's in like, I think he's
Speaker 2: just kind of missed an opportunity to steal this series.
Speaker 2: So on the Denver front, I do think their championship
Speaker 2: pedigree has shown their experience, their willingness to execute down
Speaker 2: the stretch, of games. Them turning what has been basically
Speaker 2: a dominant Oklahoma City performance for four games into two
Speaker 2: wins is actually super impressive, and it led Jackson and
Speaker 2: I when we were talking last night, to kind of
Speaker 2: acknowledge that Denver's probably the best team since Kevin Durant
Speaker 2: left the Warriors, either them or Boston. But I have
Speaker 2: a lot of respect for Denver and what I've seen
Speaker 2: to this point, but I think they lost their chance losing.
Speaker 3: That game last night.
Speaker 2: On the Oklahoma City front, I feel like I've been
Speaker 2: spot on with these guys. I feel like they have
Speaker 2: this clear championship ceiling, but they have obvious vulnerabilities in
Speaker 2: terms of their week side catch and shoot players going
Speaker 2: very cold this time. In this case Lou Dordan particular,
Speaker 2: Ja Dubbs struggling to knock down shots. Chet Holm, We're
Speaker 2: struggling to knockdown shots. There was actually the bench guys
Speaker 2: who came in and saved them yesterday. But also just
Speaker 2: the overall like kind of like lack of perimeter size
Speaker 2: has been on display in a few cases these and
Speaker 2: how when the offense bogs down, it basically just turns
Speaker 2: into Shay and j dubb just taking one on one,
Speaker 2: you know, taking turns at the top of the key,
Speaker 2: attacking guys one on one, and how their offense can
Speaker 2: kind of bog down in that way. And so they
Speaker 2: kind of are in similar way to what we were
Speaker 2: talking about with Boston, a very high ceiling, low floor
Speaker 2: type of team, and so what that always manifested like
Speaker 2: from me with Oklahoma City coming into the postseason, I
Speaker 2: said they were the second most likely team to win
Speaker 2: the championship. When I look at them moving forward, I
Speaker 2: look at them as a team that I wouldn't be
Speaker 2: surprised if they hoisted the trophy. I also wouldn't be
Speaker 2: surprised if they ended up losing in this round or
Speaker 2: next round. They are a team that is very beatable
Speaker 2: in my opinion, while also obviously having that championship ceiling,
Speaker 2: and I think that that's been revealed in this series.
Speaker 2: And then lastly, Minnesota Golden State. I also feel like
Speaker 2: I've been pretty on top of this one. I feel
Speaker 2: like if Steph was healthy, I think the Years would
Speaker 2: have won this series. And even without him, I think
Speaker 2: we've seen some of Golden State's advantages show up in
Speaker 2: big ways in terms of just how good their defense
Speaker 2: is and how their ball in player movement can confuse
Speaker 2: Minnesota's defense at times. Now, what I think will happen
Speaker 2: at this point, Golden State has their chance. They have
Speaker 2: a you know, a chance to win tonight and tie
Speaker 2: the series. They have the chance to potentially get step
Speaker 2: back in Game six, but I would view it as
Speaker 2: a substantially lower chance than like the Nick Celtic situation
Speaker 2: that we talked about, Like, I view it as less
Speaker 2: than fifty percent that Golden State wins tonight, and if
Speaker 2: they were to win that game, a less than fifty
Speaker 2: percent chance of being able to win two more games
Speaker 2: before the end of the series. And so I would
Speaker 2: be shocked at this point if Minnesota didn't win. I'd
Speaker 2: go as far as to say, if Minnesota won tonight,
Speaker 2: I wouldn't even try to bring Steph back at any
Speaker 2: point in the series. So I do think Minnesota will.
Speaker 3: End up winning. Now, what have we learned about the
Speaker 3: two teams? Golden State?
Speaker 2: I think they've shown that they have a legitimate championship
Speaker 2: level defense, and with that, in combination with how good
Speaker 2: Steph has shown himself to be in this postseason run
Speaker 2: the fit with Jimmy, I think They've proven that they're
Speaker 2: worth investing in, and so I think that we'll see
Speaker 2: a more aggressive trade approach over the course of the
Speaker 2: summer with Golden State to try to bring in more talent,
Speaker 2: identifying that there's a legitimate chance to win a championship here.
Speaker 2: I think that that is a big like, you know,
Speaker 2: if you're looking for a silver lining after what would
Speaker 2: be a super depressing finish to the season, like Golden
Speaker 2: State trades for Jimmy Butler, kick everybody's butt down the
Speaker 2: stretch of the regular season, beat the Houston Rockets, steal
Speaker 2: game one against Minnesota.
Speaker 3: You're in great shape.
Speaker 2: Steph Hursus Hammy obviously a huge bummer, But I think
Speaker 2: they've proven that they have a legitimate championship ceiling that
Speaker 2: is worth investing in, and so that is a silver
Speaker 2: lining as you head into next season and then Minnesota.
Speaker 2: I just think they're vulnerable to certain types of matchups.
Speaker 2: I think it'll be interesting to see Oklahoma City doesn't
Speaker 2: have the ball in player movement that Golden State does,
Speaker 2: so it'll be a little bit easier for their defense
Speaker 2: to handle. And I do think that they'll have extended
Speaker 2: stretches of success against Oklahoma City's defense or excuse me,
Speaker 2: against Oklahoma City's offense with their defense, but when they
Speaker 2: have the ball, I think Oklahoma City is an even
Speaker 2: better defense. And I think Golden State is a better
Speaker 2: defense for this type of matchup in terms of the
Speaker 2: way they could confuse Minnesota. But I think Oklahoma City
Speaker 2: is a more talented defense in terms of just the
Speaker 2: level of athleticism in rim protection they had, and so
Speaker 2: I think they will equally flummix Minnesota in different ways,
Speaker 2: less so with confusing them, more so with just the
Speaker 2: athletic traits that they put on the floor. And I
Speaker 2: think Minnesota is going to really struggle to score in
Speaker 2: that matchup. And so with Minnesota, it's it's very matchup dependent.
Speaker 2: If they get Denver, Denver beats Okay, see, I absolutely
Speaker 2: think they could win that series, they have a great
Speaker 2: chance to then go to the finals. And so I
Speaker 2: think Minnesota is a very good team that is very
Speaker 2: matchup dependent in terms of what they can produce on
Speaker 2: a series by series basis. All right, guys, that's all
Speaker 2: I have for this morning. Is always a sincerely appreciate
Speaker 2: you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. Colin
Speaker 2: ended up rescheduling from last night, so we'll still have
Speaker 2: a calling episode and we'll just be out later tonight.
Speaker 2: We're recording it, i think after the Draft lottery, and
Speaker 2: then I'm still planning on going live on YouTube after
Speaker 2: the final buzzer of Warriors Wolves as well as playback
Speaker 2: after that, so we will see you guys later tonight.
Speaker 3: What's up guys.
Speaker 2: As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
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Speaker 2: if you guys would take a second and leave a
Speaker 2: rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys
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