1
00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:08,640
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:12,240
Speaker 2: At the edge of New Delhi, in the city of Noida,

3
00:00:12,440 --> 00:00:16,800
Speaker 2: the groundwork for India's economic future is being built. Vast

4
00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:19,919
Speaker 2: blocks of electronics factories have sprung up there, from a

5
00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:23,640
Speaker 2: million square foot Dixon Technologies plant staffed by about twenty

6
00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:27,240
Speaker 2: six thousand workers to a Samsung facility that's turning out

7
00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:30,480
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty million phones a year. This new

8
00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:32,920
Speaker 2: manufacturing hub is at the heart of a push led

9
00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:36,640
Speaker 2: by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi to turn the country

10
00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:41,040
Speaker 2: into a manufacturing powerhouse and an engine of global economic growth.

11
00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:44,440
Speaker 2: Here's Mody talking to Congress in Washington last summer.

12
00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:50,320
Speaker 3: Today, India is the fifth largest kona.

13
00:00:57,440 --> 00:01:02,440
Speaker 1: Okay, and.

14
00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:08,880
Speaker 3: India will be the far larger economy soon. We are

15
00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:14,600
Speaker 3: not only growing bigger, but we are also growing faster.

16
00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:18,880
Speaker 2: And already there are some signs that the plan is working.

17
00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:23,480
Speaker 2: Foreign investment is pouring in, the country's stock market is booming,

18
00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:26,080
Speaker 2: and manufacturers are ramping up production.

19
00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:31,959
Speaker 1: India is posting some of the most robust economic growth

20
00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:35,039
Speaker 1: rates right now in the world. It's far and away

21
00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:39,160
Speaker 1: the world's fastest growing major economy on the world stage.

22
00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:42,959
Speaker 2: That's Dan Strump, who covers economics and politics from New

23
00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:46,720
Speaker 2: Delhi for Bloomberg, and he says, there's another big reason

24
00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:50,040
Speaker 2: analysts and economists are paying attention to India right now.

25
00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:53,320
Speaker 1: Why is everybody so interested in India? Well, I mean,

26
00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:56,360
Speaker 1: of course, one of the biggest reasons is simply that

27
00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:57,520
Speaker 1: it's not China.

28
00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:02,360
Speaker 2: That's because while India's me is speeding up, China's has

29
00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:06,200
Speaker 2: been slowing down. And with China's strained global trade relations,

30
00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:09,600
Speaker 2: it looks like India has a unique opportunity to overtake

31
00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:13,400
Speaker 2: it as the world's largest contributor to growth. But to

32
00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:17,600
Speaker 2: achieve Prime Minister Modi's most ambitious goals, India still has

33
00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:20,919
Speaker 2: a lot of work to do, from modernizing its infrastructure,

34
00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:24,400
Speaker 2: to growing its workforce, to building out its urban centers.

35
00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:27,359
Speaker 1: India needs a lot more cities.

36
00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:31,680
Speaker 2: This is Goldman Sachs's India economists Santanus and Gupta speaking

37
00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:33,880
Speaker 2: to the Bloomberg Originals team. There is a lot of

38
00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:37,919
Speaker 2: progress already happening, but there are crucial problems like water,

39
00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:44,400
Speaker 2: like traffic, like orbit housing that needs to be solved today.

40
00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,720
Speaker 2: On the show, could a thriving India follow in China's

41
00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:52,040
Speaker 2: economic footsteps and what will it take to rival its growth?

42
00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:56,000
Speaker 2: From Bloomberg News. This is the big take. I'm Sarah Holder.

43
00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:04,320
Speaker 2: So for years China's economy grew at the fastest pace

44
00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:08,680
Speaker 2: in the world, but now it slowed down considerably. I

45
00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:12,000
Speaker 2: asked Dan Strump, What is it about the Indian economy

46
00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:15,000
Speaker 2: today that has people saying it could see growth at

47
00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:16,359
Speaker 2: the rate China once did?

48
00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:20,760
Speaker 1: On paper, there's actually a lot of similarities. India is

49
00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:24,960
Speaker 1: now the world's largest country by population, just surpassed China

50
00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:30,440
Speaker 1: one point four billion people. It has economic growth, which

51
00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:33,959
Speaker 1: is very scarce around the world right now, and there's

52
00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:36,160
Speaker 1: a number of other factors working in India's favor. It

53
00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:39,880
Speaker 1: has what economists referred to as a demographic dividend, which

54
00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:43,160
Speaker 1: is that it has this sort of young, growing population

55
00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:46,800
Speaker 1: that is hungry for work and can be put to work,

56
00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:50,440
Speaker 1: can be put to productive work. China, of course, has

57
00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,640
Speaker 1: an aging population and a shrinking population as to many

58
00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,920
Speaker 1: developed economies around the world. So all of these kind

59
00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:00,440
Speaker 1: of factors are coming together to work in India's.

60
00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:03,760
Speaker 2: Prime Minister Modi has pledged to capitalize on this potential

61
00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,560
Speaker 2: as he seeks a third term in office, he's promised

62
00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:09,000
Speaker 2: to take India to the top position in the world

63
00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:11,360
Speaker 2: and a big part of the plan is to expand

64
00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:15,040
Speaker 2: India's manufacturing capacity to bring it up to a quarter

65
00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,159
Speaker 2: of the country's GDP. But there's a lot that has

66
00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:22,440
Speaker 2: to happen first, starting with building better infrastructure.

67
00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:27,080
Speaker 1: This is really a big and long standing issue in India.

68
00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,719
Speaker 1: India still lags on a number of metrics, say compared

69
00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:33,920
Speaker 1: to China, which I mean if you go to say,

70
00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:38,480
Speaker 1: the sort of manufacturing corridors of southern China, for example,

71
00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,840
Speaker 1: I mean you'll just see world class infrastructure, world class highways.

72
00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:45,800
Speaker 1: China is of course known for its extremely well developed

73
00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:49,920
Speaker 1: high speed rail network that took many years to build.

74
00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:54,200
Speaker 1: And India has long struggled with things like roads. You know,

75
00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:58,720
Speaker 1: the quality of its railroads. It has insufficient airports in

76
00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:02,120
Speaker 1: sufficient ports, and these are the sort of things that

77
00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:07,480
Speaker 1: you need to attract things like foreign manufacturers. So infrastructure

78
00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:10,200
Speaker 1: has been a major priority for the Modi administration.

79
00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:14,279
Speaker 2: Modi's administration has promised to commit one hundred and forty

80
00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:17,960
Speaker 2: three trillion rupees the equivalent of well over a trillion

81
00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,320
Speaker 2: dollars to infrastructure in the next few years. Some of

82
00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:24,839
Speaker 2: that money will go towards new airports. Indio last year

83
00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,880
Speaker 2: had about one hundred and forty eight airports, but they

84
00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:30,240
Speaker 2: plan to boost the number to two hundred and twenty

85
00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:34,440
Speaker 2: next year. They're also working on their railways and their roads.

86
00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:37,440
Speaker 1: One of the most sort of touted projects when it

87
00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:41,360
Speaker 1: comes to high speed rail is a forthcoming railway that

88
00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:45,640
Speaker 1: is meant to connect Gujarat, which is Mody's home state,

89
00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:50,480
Speaker 1: with Mumbai, which is the financial capital. And this has

90
00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,880
Speaker 1: yet to come online, but it's as much tied project,

91
00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:57,320
Speaker 1: and the ambition is that it's one of a number

92
00:05:57,320 --> 00:06:01,000
Speaker 1: of new projects that will kind of help together all

93
00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:05,240
Speaker 1: of these up and coming Indian industrial and financial centers.

94
00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:10,120
Speaker 1: Another project is a major highway that's meant to be

95
00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,359
Speaker 1: connecting Mumbai with New Deli, the capital, and that's actually

96
00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:17,120
Speaker 1: up and running. Things like that help reduce logistics costs

97
00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:21,280
Speaker 1: and help reduce the overhead that businesses and investors are

98
00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:24,120
Speaker 1: paying to do business here, and that's really sort of

99
00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:27,279
Speaker 1: the benefit that it's hoped gets reaped from investment projects

100
00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:27,560
Speaker 1: like that.

101
00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:29,960
Speaker 2: To see the kind of growth at once, India will

102
00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:33,080
Speaker 2: also have to drive up its labor force participation, which

103
00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,960
Speaker 2: is currently among the lowest in the world. Only a

104
00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,080
Speaker 2: little over half the country's working age population was working

105
00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,279
Speaker 2: or looking for a job as of twenty twenty two.

106
00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:43,719
Speaker 2: Rates are even lower for women.

107
00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:49,320
Speaker 1: This is a huge problem because they're of course, I mean,

108
00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,560
Speaker 1: you just you need more people to be in the

109
00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:55,680
Speaker 1: workforce if you want to generate growth. But it's also

110
00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:59,720
Speaker 1: a huge social problem. I mean, India suffers from high unemployment.

111
00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:04,440
Speaker 1: So right now, a very large share of its economy

112
00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:09,760
Speaker 1: is agricultural, and many economists point to the fact that

113
00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:15,000
Speaker 1: India's workforce is under educated. There are jobs in the

114
00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:18,440
Speaker 1: service sector, there are jobs in high tech industries in

115
00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:22,560
Speaker 1: places like Bangalore hydrobod and then there's and then there's

116
00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:26,240
Speaker 1: jobs for people in the agricultural sector, which is low

117
00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:30,360
Speaker 1: skilled labor. But there's there's really a need to increase

118
00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,280
Speaker 1: the share of workers kind of in that in that

119
00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:35,600
Speaker 1: middle area, right who can do things like working factories

120
00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:37,960
Speaker 1: in large numbers or manage factories.

121
00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:40,760
Speaker 2: It seems like one of the broader goals for growing

122
00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:44,640
Speaker 2: India's economy is to grow the country's middle class the

123
00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:47,560
Speaker 2: same way China has been able to. How could that

124
00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:49,040
Speaker 2: reshape the Indian economy.

125
00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:53,119
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean this is this is absolutely the case.

126
00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:59,920
Speaker 1: The development of India's middle class is really linked inextricably

127
00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:05,440
Speaker 1: with building out the manufacturing industry. And the reason for

128
00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:10,160
Speaker 1: that that many economists point to is that manufacturing is

129
00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,480
Speaker 1: one of the few sectors in an economy that really

130
00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:17,160
Speaker 1: is able to generate large numbers of jobs and large

131
00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:21,680
Speaker 1: numbers of jobs for people who have a little bit

132
00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:25,840
Speaker 1: of education but might not be working in technology companies.

133
00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:29,080
Speaker 1: And these are the people that Modi and India kind

134
00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:31,520
Speaker 1: of need to put to work in order to develop

135
00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,280
Speaker 1: boost the economic growth rate to a level that puts

136
00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:35,720
Speaker 1: it on track to overtake China.

137
00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:37,719
Speaker 2: If they do manage to get more people into the

138
00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:41,120
Speaker 2: labor force and amp up their manufacturing sector, they'll need

139
00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,440
Speaker 2: to build out their cities. Just thirty six percent of

140
00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:48,280
Speaker 2: India's population live in cities versus over sixty four percent

141
00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:52,800
Speaker 2: of China's. I asked Dan how India is thinking about urbanizing.

142
00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:56,960
Speaker 1: I think this goes actually right to the infrastructure point.

143
00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,920
Speaker 1: It's not just about serving business, it's about serving cities,

144
00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:05,120
Speaker 1: and it's about building not just like highways and high

145
00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:10,240
Speaker 1: speed rail, by metro lines and improved inner city highway

146
00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:13,720
Speaker 1: links and things like this that are going to attract

147
00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:18,000
Speaker 1: housing development, for example, that are going to attract people.

148
00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,720
Speaker 1: I mean out in Neude, just by way of example,

149
00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:26,120
Speaker 1: we saw a huge new plot of land where you've

150
00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:29,000
Speaker 1: got what's meant to be a million square foot smartphone

151
00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:32,240
Speaker 1: factory that's just broken ground right now. Just about a

152
00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:35,040
Speaker 1: kilometer away or so in the distance, you've got about

153
00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,000
Speaker 1: half a dozen high rises that have just come up

154
00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:41,720
Speaker 1: that are just under construction that are meant to house

155
00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:44,400
Speaker 1: a lot of these people to work in this plan.

156
00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,160
Speaker 1: So you know, one sort of begets the other.

157
00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,280
Speaker 2: But India's still got a lot of catching up to do.

158
00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:55,199
Speaker 2: It's three point five trillion dollar economy today is only

159
00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,480
Speaker 2: about a fifth of the size of China's. When we

160
00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:02,400
Speaker 2: come back what India does economic ambitions mean for China

161
00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:09,440
Speaker 2: and for the rest of the world. We've been speaking

162
00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,920
Speaker 2: with Bloomberg reporter Dan Strump in New Delhi about India's

163
00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:15,640
Speaker 2: potential to take the mantle from China as the global

164
00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:20,000
Speaker 2: leader in economic growth. How much does India's success rely

165
00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:24,800
Speaker 2: on eating China's lunch. Does India have to actually take jobs, factories,

166
00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:27,559
Speaker 2: opportunities away from China?

167
00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:30,760
Speaker 1: So there's two ways of looking at that. You could

168
00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:34,880
Speaker 1: make the case that India doesn't need China to slow

169
00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,760
Speaker 1: down to advance, but economic growth is not zero sum,

170
00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:44,880
Speaker 1: and China and India actually have very robust economic ties,

171
00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:49,640
Speaker 1: and so a slowing China isn't on all fronts necessarily

172
00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:54,439
Speaker 1: good for India. I think what certainly, what Modi recognizes

173
00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:58,200
Speaker 1: and what many foreign investors are kind of keying in on,

174
00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:02,920
Speaker 1: is that they're is this growing desire around the world

175
00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:06,439
Speaker 1: to kind of de risk away from China. We hear

176
00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:08,640
Speaker 1: a lot of talk of this what's called this China

177
00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:14,160
Speaker 1: plus one strategy, where you're a big manufacturer or multinational

178
00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:18,600
Speaker 1: like Apple or Samsung or something that's had a big

179
00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:22,400
Speaker 1: footprint in China for a long time. You don't necessarily

180
00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,960
Speaker 1: want to pull out of China because you've got, say

181
00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:28,079
Speaker 1: in the case of Apple, I mean really deep roots

182
00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:32,080
Speaker 1: there and a massive supply chain that can't really be

183
00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:38,280
Speaker 1: replicated overnight anywhere else. But you know, you're mindful of

184
00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:43,600
Speaker 1: both the slow down happening in China and of the

185
00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:48,200
Speaker 1: shifting geopolitical wins, and you want an alternative that will

186
00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,600
Speaker 1: take a little bit of a heat off of that relationship.

187
00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,720
Speaker 1: That is where India comes in for many of these companies,

188
00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:57,880
Speaker 1: and many companies are trying to find a way as

189
00:11:57,880 --> 00:11:59,960
Speaker 1: well to capitalize on this opportunity.

190
00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:02,319
Speaker 2: And is it working so far? Is there a lot

191
00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:05,840
Speaker 2: more foreign investment flooding into India's sense? It's you know,

192
00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:09,440
Speaker 2: raised the bar on these economic expectations.

193
00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:13,080
Speaker 1: So I think the answer that you would hear is

194
00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:16,080
Speaker 1: that it's sort of working. It's not a clean one

195
00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:19,680
Speaker 1: for one dollar for dollar. Everybody's pulling out of China

196
00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,080
Speaker 1: and they're coming into India. It's a lot of that

197
00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,600
Speaker 1: investment that say, might have been going into China. If

198
00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:29,000
Speaker 1: you know, the world we're in a different place right now.

199
00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,160
Speaker 1: It's getting spread out around the world. Some of it's

200
00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:34,680
Speaker 1: going to India, but a lot of it's going to

201
00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:38,200
Speaker 1: Southeast Asia. Vietnam, for example, is actually taking a lot

202
00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,120
Speaker 1: of investment in manufacturing from companies that might have been

203
00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:44,080
Speaker 1: investing in China. Of course, Mexico has also been a

204
00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:47,079
Speaker 1: major recipient of a lot of this investment as well.

205
00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:50,640
Speaker 1: India is getting some of it, but in many ways

206
00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,439
Speaker 1: what you hear is that India remains a difficult place

207
00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:55,680
Speaker 1: to do business. There's a lot of barriers to entry.

208
00:12:56,280 --> 00:13:01,200
Speaker 1: There are complicated tax regimes to contend with, and the

209
00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:04,720
Speaker 1: sort of wheels of government in India. You know, they're

210
00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:07,840
Speaker 1: just grind more slowly, certainly than they do in China,

211
00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:11,839
Speaker 1: where for better or for worse, one party rule has

212
00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:17,000
Speaker 1: managed to streamline the economy in a very rapid and

213
00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:18,640
Speaker 1: swift way.

214
00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:22,480
Speaker 2: What will it mean for the US if India is

215
00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:25,560
Speaker 2: able to deliver on these ambitious economic growth plans?

216
00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:30,200
Speaker 1: So what the US season in India? I think is,

217
00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:34,360
Speaker 1: in the best case scenario, a partner, you know, as

218
00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:36,120
Speaker 1: a country you can work with, and as a country

219
00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:40,040
Speaker 1: you can deal with, and you know, as a fellow democracy,

220
00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:45,240
Speaker 1: as a country with some shared values. So a more

221
00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:50,880
Speaker 1: economically vibrant India is a counterweight to China, which is

222
00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:56,120
Speaker 1: increasingly the US's biggest global rival. So from a strategic

223
00:13:56,160 --> 00:14:01,520
Speaker 1: point of view, India definitely represents a partner with the US,

224
00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:05,440
Speaker 1: and it can also represent, you know, a place where

225
00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,160
Speaker 1: a lot of US companies can invest in, and you're

226
00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:11,319
Speaker 1: seeing a lot of that investment already coming in.

227
00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,800
Speaker 2: We've been talking a lot about India's potential, but I

228
00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:18,200
Speaker 2: wanted to ask Dan, doesn't this kind of rapid economic

229
00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:20,200
Speaker 2: expansion have downsides too.

230
00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:23,760
Speaker 1: Just to take the China case, I think it's very

231
00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:28,320
Speaker 1: well documented that the biggest downsides to its economic expansion

232
00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:33,120
Speaker 1: were the environmental side effects that came with it. The

233
00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:39,800
Speaker 1: stories of pollution in places like Beijang and Shanghai. I mean,

234
00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:43,520
Speaker 1: you're actually seeing that replicated in many Indian cities now,

235
00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:46,320
Speaker 1: in places like New Delhi, where you know, the pollution

236
00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:50,440
Speaker 1: is literally the worst in the world. So that's the

237
00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:54,560
Speaker 1: most obvious downside to growth, and especially to rapid growth.

238
00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:58,120
Speaker 2: Of that skill Sodan, You've really helped us understand the

239
00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:01,360
Speaker 2: scale of India's ambitions, where they're at right now, where

240
00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:03,720
Speaker 2: they go from here. You've also talked to a lot

241
00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,400
Speaker 2: of analysts and economists who are following what's happening in

242
00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:10,720
Speaker 2: India really closely. How realistic do they think these growth

243
00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:11,240
Speaker 2: plans are?

244
00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:15,760
Speaker 1: So our colleagues at Bloomberg Economics, they crunch the numbers.

245
00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:20,880
Speaker 1: Their conclusion is that India actually can overtake China as

246
00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:25,080
Speaker 1: the world's engine of economic growth, meaning it can be

247
00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:31,080
Speaker 1: the world's largest contributor to global growth within this decade. Now,

248
00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:33,880
Speaker 1: that's sort of in a best case scenario. Now, in

249
00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:37,240
Speaker 1: a slower growth scenario, you would see that happening in

250
00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:41,800
Speaker 1: the next decade. So I think that there is a

251
00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:46,880
Speaker 1: strong belief that India can take this sort of mantle

252
00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:50,480
Speaker 1: as the world's incremental driver of global growth as China

253
00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:53,880
Speaker 1: slows down. And you know what that means for India

254
00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:57,720
Speaker 1: is that it will continue to draw more foreign investment,

255
00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:05,320
Speaker 1: It will continue to attract more investment from foreign companies,

256
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:10,320
Speaker 1: and it will continue to kind of grow as a

257
00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:12,080
Speaker 1: player on the world stage.

258
00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:14,640
Speaker 2: Well, Dan, thank you so much for joining us today

259
00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:16,120
Speaker 2: and sharing your great reporting.

260
00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:17,880
Speaker 1: Well, thank you so much.

261
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,880
Speaker 2: This has been The Big Take podcast from Bloomberg News.

262
00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:26,680
Speaker 2: I'm Sarah Holder. This episode was produced by Alex Suguia.

263
00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:30,000
Speaker 2: It was edited by Caitlin Kenny and Chris Anstey. It

264
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:33,960
Speaker 2: was mixed by Rishi Bijacole. It was fact checked by Naomi.

265
00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:38,400
Speaker 2: Naomi Shavin is our senior producer. Elizabeth Ponso is our

266
00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:42,760
Speaker 2: senior editor. Nicole Beemsterbor is our executive producer. Sage Bauman

267
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:46,400
Speaker 2: is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts. Please subscribe and review The

268
00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,280
Speaker 2: Big Take wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps new

269
00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:52,480
Speaker 2: listeners find the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back

270
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:53,080
Speaker 2: tomorrow