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Speaker 1: Now here's a highlight from Coast to Coast AM on

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Speaker 1: iHeart Radio and welcome back to Coast to Coast George

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Speaker 1: nor with you. Michael Claire, Professor Emeritus of Peace and

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Speaker 1: World Security Studies at Hampshire College and a senior Visiting

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Speaker 1: Fellow at the Arms Control Association in Washington, DC, where

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Speaker 1: he studies the impact of advanced technologies on the future

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Speaker 1: of war. He is the defense correspondent for The Nation

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Speaker 1: magazine and the author of a number of books fifteen plus,

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Speaker 1: including most recently All Hell Breaking Loose, the Pentagon's perspective

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Speaker 1: on climate change. Michael, welcome to the program. It's good

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Speaker 1: to have you with us. Great to be with you tonight, George.

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Speaker 1: What is Vladimir Putin up to nationalizing the Exxon in

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Speaker 1: the Ukraine? What's got into this guy? Michael? Well, you know,

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Speaker 1: he's in a very desperate situation because his economy is

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Speaker 1: declining because of all of the economic sanctions imposed by

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Speaker 1: the West, and the only thing that he still holds

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Speaker 1: on too is control of the oil and gas industry.

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Speaker 1: So this Egxon nationalization, I guess, is another way he's

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Speaker 1: trying to maximize his control over oil and gas. Revenues

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Speaker 1: when everything else is tanking. Let me ask you this,

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Speaker 1: Michael too. For all the guests I've had on the program,

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Speaker 1: I've got two that seem to be Putin apologists that

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Speaker 1: come on, and they just seem to think that he

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Speaker 1: can do no wrong and that everything that has happened

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Speaker 1: to him was a result of things that NATO has

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Speaker 1: pushed him and pushed his back against the wall. Is

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Speaker 1: there any basis to that. Well, certainly he might feel,

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Speaker 1: as many Russians too, that they've come under pressure from

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Speaker 1: the expansion of NATO, But that does not justify or

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Speaker 1: explain the invasion of Ukraine, and my mind, not at all.

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Speaker 1: I think this is a product of his own imperial

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Speaker 1: mindset and his own determination to restore the Russian Empire

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Speaker 1: or the Soviet Empire, however you want to look at it.

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Speaker 1: So you can't really say that Russia Putin was justified

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Speaker 1: in invading Ukraine because of what the West did. No.

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Speaker 1: Is he capable, Michael, of using nukes? He is certainly

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Speaker 1: capable of it, George. He has threaten the use of

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Speaker 1: nuclear weapons repeatedly over the past few months, and he

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Speaker 1: has a large stockpile of so called tactical nuclear weapons

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Speaker 1: tactical in this sense that they're intended for use on

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Speaker 1: the battlefield rather than in retaliation for an your attack

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Speaker 1: or all out nuclear war. He has this capacity, will

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Speaker 1: he use them? I would say not in the present circumstances.

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Speaker 1: I think the price he would pay is to high

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Speaker 1: in terms of international isolation, and I don't think there

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Speaker 1: would be much battlefield advantage of doing so. I don't

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Speaker 1: think it would change what's happening on the battlefield, so

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Speaker 1: I don't see him using them now. However, if you

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Speaker 1: see a mass of collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine

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Speaker 1: at some point down the road, then I wouldn't be

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Speaker 1: so sure about this. Desperate people do desperate things, Michael,

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Speaker 1: and my concern is that if he's got his back

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Speaker 1: against the wall and what exactly you just said happens,

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Speaker 1: he may do a hell Mary and just try to

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Speaker 1: go for a broke. It's certainly possible. I think he's

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Speaker 1: following a different strategy for the time being, and that's

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Speaker 1: to use whatever missiles and drones he could get us

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Speaker 1: hands on to destroy the civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, to

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Speaker 1: attack energy plants, water plants, railroads, anything that sustains the

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Speaker 1: economy in Ukraine, the civilian economy, and to try to

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Speaker 1: ground grind down the Ukrainian population so that they'll lose

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Speaker 1: their appetite for war. I don't think that strategy will succeed,

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Speaker 1: but that seems to be what he's doing now with

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Speaker 1: these missile strikes and drone strikes on Kiev and other

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Speaker 1: major cities. How secure is he holding his position personally?

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Speaker 1: I think at this point he's pretty secure. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you can't point to any forces within Russia that have

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Speaker 1: the capacity at this moment to get rid of them.

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Speaker 1: Whether there are things going on behind the scenes, well

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Speaker 1: that's another story. If I were in the Russian elite.

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Speaker 1: I'm not part of that, But if I were part

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Speaker 1: of the Russian elite or the Russian military, I would

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Speaker 1: be saying to myself, this guy is getting out of control.

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Speaker 1: He's a loose cannon, and he's slowly destroying Russia by

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Speaker 1: bringing up about all these sanctions and military defeats. So

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Speaker 1: I would be whispering to my friends in the elite,

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Speaker 1: what could we do to replace him with someone else?

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Speaker 1: But we don't hear those whispers in the West, so

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Speaker 1: it's very hard to tell how strong they might be.

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Speaker 1: Should our administration be negotiating with Putin to try to

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Speaker 1: give him a way out in show face, well, listen

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Speaker 1: that the Biden administration is simply not in a position

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Speaker 1: to do that because you know, we, the United States

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Speaker 1: is providing Ukraine with a lot of the weapons that's

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Speaker 1: allowing the Ukrainians to push the Russians back. From Putin's perspective,

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Speaker 1: We're a participant in the war, so that's not possible.

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Speaker 1: I think what the US can do is to encourage

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Speaker 1: other intermediaries like President Ertogon of Turkey and Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: Modi of India, say, for example, to start a process

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Speaker 1: of bringing the two sides to the bargaining table. But

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Speaker 1: I don't think you could expect peace talks to begin

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Speaker 1: anytime soon. But I do think they we should see.

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Speaker 1: I would like to see, you know, the beginning of

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Speaker 1: a background process where where representatives of the two sides meet,

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Speaker 1: maybe an istandable to talk about what they might be

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Speaker 1: willing to agree to. Michael, when Putin started amassing troops

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Speaker 1: along the Ukraine, nobody took him seriously. Was that a

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Speaker 1: fatal mistake on NATO's part or part? Well, Now, I

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Speaker 1: certainly took them seriously, and I'm, you know, not part

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Speaker 1: of the military establishment because the build up was so

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Speaker 1: engineered to to support a major invasion. I mean, it

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Speaker 1: wasn't just for show. The build up included hospitals and

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Speaker 1: you know, the whole nine yards. So I think military

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Speaker 1: intelligence officials took it very seriously. Could more have been

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Speaker 1: done to discourage him, perhaps, but I can't. I can't

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Speaker 1: imagine what could have been done. That man was absolutely

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Speaker 1: determined to go into u praying for reasons of his own,

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Speaker 1: of his own making, So I was pretty sure he

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Speaker 1: was going to invade, And the fact that people believed

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Speaker 1: his propaganda that that wasn't so utterly surprises me. Like

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Speaker 1: the Chinese leadership saying they didn't think he was going

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Speaker 1: to invade, that's bad intelligence on their part. And speaking

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Speaker 1: of the Chinese leadership, they keep hinting that they would

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Speaker 1: use force into Taiwan. What the heck's going on there, Michael, Well,

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Speaker 1: they say they would do that as very less resort

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Speaker 1: if the Taiwanese people we were to reject reunification with

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Speaker 1: the mainland and move in the opposite direction to full independence.

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Speaker 1: But the Chinese don't say this is imminent. I think

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Speaker 1: they're afraid. The Chinese leadership, I think is afraid that

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Speaker 1: the Taiwanese people are less and less inclined to reunify

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Speaker 1: with the mainland. You know, given what's happened in Hong Kong,

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Speaker 1: for example, turned many young Taiwanese off of being part

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Speaker 1: of China. So there are worries, But you can't see

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Speaker 1: any evidence of an actual Chinese military mobilization for invasion

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Speaker 1: of Taiwan the way you did see as you were

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Speaker 1: saying George's you could see a long build up of

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Speaker 1: Russian forces for the invasion of Ukraine. There's no equivalent

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Speaker 1: with respect to Taiwan. Listen to More Coast to Coast

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Speaker 1: a m every weeknight at one a m. Eastern and

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Speaker 1: go to Coast to Coast am dot com for more