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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.

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Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,

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Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,

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Speaker 1: and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now,

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Speaker 1: here's your host. Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. I'm Paul

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Speaker 1: Charchy in. My co host this week is Matt Harrison.

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Speaker 1: It's been a while, explosive outplayed. Yeah, like that's a

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Speaker 1: long time. Yeah, I gotta got warmed up for the

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Speaker 1: regular season play season shows. August is coming. Yeah, you'll

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Speaker 1: be back in full rotation in a couple of weeks. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Draft season back when we're back to our two hours

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Speaker 1: football weekly bonanza every week. This is this is gonna

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Speaker 1: be one of our final two short versions. We're continuing

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Speaker 1: our tour around the divisions in the NFL, breaking down

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Speaker 1: each division and providing an outlook for what we expect

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Speaker 1: this year from each of the four teams, and in

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Speaker 1: this case the NFC South with with breaking news on

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Speaker 1: Michael Thomas that just came down today. We record on

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Speaker 1: Fridays and we'll we'll talk through that in just a

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Speaker 1: few minutes, um. And that's that's the format that we like.

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Speaker 1: We like to use as a quick reminder before we

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Speaker 1: jump into the Carolina Panthers. Matt uh Guillote Leagues up

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Speaker 1: and running at Guillotine Leagues dot Com. I completed one. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it was in the scott Fish Bowl Super Guillotine League

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Speaker 1: Super Chop. It's it's a very different experience there because

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Speaker 1: it's a twelve team draft. The super Chop leagues are

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Speaker 1: our twelve team leagues, twelve twelve team leagues, hundred forty

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Speaker 1: four total players. But your league is just twelve teams.

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Speaker 1: You have a pretty regular feeling draft. Yeah, you don't

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Speaker 1: feel like you're draft and junk in the seventh rounds.

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Speaker 1: You feel like you're like, Okay, this is a good fantasy.

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Speaker 1: I can go to war with this and then so

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Speaker 1: it feels good. It does the traditional Guillotine league with

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Speaker 1: eighteen teams, you get deep the guys at the bottom.

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Speaker 1: But why would I ever start this player? Right? But

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Speaker 1: the thing is everybody's in the same boat. And of

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Speaker 1: course with the Guillotine League, one weekend, somebody's getting chopped

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Speaker 1: and there comes all that team that whole rosters come

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Speaker 1: to the waiver wire. See, your team gets better fast

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Speaker 1: but it's a very different draft. Well, let me ask you,

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Speaker 1: charge if you were in a guillotine league and you

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Speaker 1: had the first overall pick, who would you pick? Travis Kelsey? Okay,

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Speaker 1: I would go Patrick Mahomes just because I feel so

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Speaker 1: much safety with him. But Kelsey is definitely in consideration

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Speaker 1: for me. I can get a good quarterback. That's much

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Speaker 1: much later. I can't get a good tight end, get

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Speaker 1: one like that. I can't even you know, if you

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Speaker 1: think there's three really good tight ends, by the time

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Speaker 1: I get back to pick one, they're all gone, all

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Speaker 1: three of them are gone, probably gone first round, early second. Yeah, Like,

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Speaker 1: you go Travis Kelsey. And for the people that are

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Speaker 1: just I have to ever running back, you go Travis Kelsey,

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Speaker 1: running back, running back, um, and you'll be in You'll

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Speaker 1: be in pretty good chap. You'll be fine. So that's

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Speaker 1: that's what I would do. Check out the Chop podcast,

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Speaker 1: by the way, that is our sister podcast dedicated to

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Speaker 1: guillotine leagues and and our discussion. Coincidentally, Matt on this

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Speaker 1: week's Chop is what to do if you're at the

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Speaker 1: other end of that draft here in like sixteen, seventeen, eighteen,

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Speaker 1: what is your what's the draft strategy for the end

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Speaker 1: of the first round. Well, in my super chop, I

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Speaker 1: was number eleven out of twelve and I happened to

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Speaker 1: fall into Patrick Mahomes. So I was delighted. Okay, yeah,

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Speaker 1: then yes, you should be very happy for safety in

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Speaker 1: the first few rounds. The guillotine and see if if

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, I think there's a coin flips chance he's

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Speaker 1: sitting on a fifty touchdown season, and if you think

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Speaker 1: that's going to happen, he gives you just like weekend

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Speaker 1: and week out bonanza points. Well, I tweeted this a

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Speaker 1: while ago, There's a year coming where Patrick Mahomes just

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Speaker 1: blows up every record. It's going to happen one of

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Speaker 1: these years. It has to. Is it this year? Is

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Speaker 1: it net Steer like? But when is it? It's going

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Speaker 1: to happen. So I was just in Las Vegas, and

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Speaker 1: I made all of my season long Vegas bets. You

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Speaker 1: can't I'm in Minnesota, in Minnesota, and I can't make

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Speaker 1: bets football bets in Minnesota. So I placed all my

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Speaker 1: season long ones, and my bet on the Chiefs was

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Speaker 1: not Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, like six to one. Um,

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Speaker 1: it was not their even money win total because you

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Speaker 1: had to go over like thirteen and a half games.

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Speaker 1: It's Andy Reid to win Coach of the Year twenty

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Speaker 1: to one if you and I the thinking being they

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Speaker 1: could be a fifteen sixteen seventeen win team and then

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Speaker 1: to get to have to give it to Andy Reid

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Speaker 1: and I got a twenty to one instead of like

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Speaker 1: six to one to make the Super Bowl. And Andy

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Speaker 1: Reid doesn't have a good shot of winning Coach of

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Speaker 1: the Year because they always seemed to give it to

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Speaker 1: somebody who's right that the sex that that is usually

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Speaker 1: how it goes. But it is Kevin Stefansk. Have you

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Speaker 1: seen it? That is a good looking man. I can

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Speaker 1: say that. Okay, yes, um, alright. Anyway, a significant diversion

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Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers, which might be a good thing. We're

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Speaker 1: coming out of the gate with the least interesting in

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Speaker 1: the NFC South teams. I think, well, I mean we

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Speaker 1: get to start with Christian McCaffrey, who, by a DP

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Speaker 1: is one. UM, I actually have him as number two

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Speaker 1: on my cheat sheets. Who do you have And by

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Speaker 1: the way, at Shock Fantasy Doctor, people to go there,

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Speaker 1: all of your cheat sheets. Who do you have number one?

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Speaker 1: Then I have Dalvinvok's my number one player right now.

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Speaker 1: But cmc uh, we we've seen this before. He was

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Speaker 1: won one last year and he was probably the safest

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Speaker 1: looking one one coming out of any year that maybe

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Speaker 1: we've ever seen since Ladinian and then you know, he

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Speaker 1: gets injured. He looked great in the couple of games

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Speaker 1: that we did see him. But the downside is is

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Speaker 1: do we see another year of injuries because it was

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Speaker 1: multiple injuries to McCaffrey to last year, so there's more

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Speaker 1: than one thing that can go wrong with him. So

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Speaker 1: I mean, we're gonna talk the riskiest and highest upside plays,

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Speaker 1: but put a pin in that guy right there, because

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Speaker 1: we're gonna come back to him. And one of the

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Speaker 1: other real risks here for this whole offense is arguably

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Speaker 1: the NFL's worst offensive line for the Panthers. So you

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Speaker 1: know they're starting Pat elf Line at left guard. He

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Speaker 1: should not be in the NFL. We saw him in

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Speaker 1: Minnesota for a long time. She should certainly not be

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Speaker 1: a starter. Um John Miller, Taylor Moten, Cameron Irving. This

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Speaker 1: they have scrubs up and down the offensive line, and

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Speaker 1: that probably played into the safety of Teddy Bridgewater last year,

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Speaker 1: where you know little dink and dunk high percentage throws

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Speaker 1: for Teddy Bridgewater. Uh, they passed fifty nine percent of

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Speaker 1: the time last year, which was top half of the league.

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Speaker 1: So um and and that makes sense with Christian McCaffrey

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Speaker 1: being a guy who can catch a lot of balls

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Speaker 1: out of the backfield. Obviously, Mike Davis kind of filled

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Speaker 1: that role last year. He's in Atlanta and now we'll

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Speaker 1: talk about him later, but we got a new quarterback

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Speaker 1: in town. That's Sam Donald. He gets his uh second

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Speaker 1: lease on life. He was the third overall pick in

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Speaker 1: and started thirteen, thirteen and twelve games in his three

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Speaker 1: year career with the Jets. So he had three games

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Speaker 1: with more than two touchdown passes. That that's just that's

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Speaker 1: not that's tough. That's tough. I mean, it's Teddy Bridgewater

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Speaker 1: like numbers. But I think Donald obviously gives you a

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Speaker 1: little bit more upside. So Uh, the Panthers looked at

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Speaker 1: him and viewed him as a guy who might be

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Speaker 1: better than anybody they could get in the draft. Remember

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Speaker 1: the Panthers drafted eight this last year, and they passed

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Speaker 1: on Justin Fields and they they and they could have

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Speaker 1: had both, which is what I would have done, just

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Speaker 1: to insulate, you know, yourself, in case Sam Donald doesn't

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Speaker 1: work out and you give Justin Fields a year to learn,

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Speaker 1: and so that's what i'd have done. But you know, Panthers,

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Speaker 1: by the way, let me just the Panthers. We were

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Speaker 1: talking about the offensive except full of scrubs. Just signed

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Speaker 1: Taylor Molten to a huge deal. Way overrated. Wait, he's

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Speaker 1: like the sixth highest way. They must think he's pretty good.

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Speaker 1: They do think he's pretty good, but I still don't.

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Speaker 1: I still think he's vastly, vastly overrated. But go ahead.

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Speaker 1: So upside for Donald is definitely there. He's got a

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Speaker 1: nice set of receivers. The three Panthers Whiteouts finished amongst

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Speaker 1: the top twenty four at the position last season. As

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Speaker 1: a whole, they were top ten in Fantasy points as

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Speaker 1: a position group, despite totaling only ten touchdowns as a group.

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Speaker 1: That is crazy fewest, and the Patriots only had four. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's Cam Newton right there. You know. I think from

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Speaker 1: a passing the hope here is that fleeing Adam Gaze

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Speaker 1: will do for Sam Donald. What fleeing Adam Gaze did

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Speaker 1: for Ryan Tannehill or anybody else exact. Um. Curtis Samuel

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Speaker 1: is gone, though he's replaced by rookie Terrorice Marshall nice Jr.

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Speaker 1: Who of course joined d J. Moore and Robbie Anderson

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Speaker 1: as high end wide receivers. More is the most expensive

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Speaker 1: right now, is a DPS around the twenty feet wide

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Speaker 1: receiver off the board. Some people really like him a

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Speaker 1: lot more. There's there's d J. Moore bobos all over

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Speaker 1: the fantasy industry, and he's mixed in with some very

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Speaker 1: intriguing names like Adam Feeling and Cooper Cup right in

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Speaker 1: that range in an average draft position right now. Uh.

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Speaker 1: In Dynasty, he's probably a top ten wide receiver. But

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I like this price to me,

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Speaker 1: and I can't. I can't have any Dynasty receiver in

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Speaker 1: my top ten when I can't tell you who the

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Speaker 1: quarterback is going to be next year. I completely agree.

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Speaker 1: I've you know, downgraded most of my Steelers wide receivers

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Speaker 1: right now. Um, but d J. Moore's only had four

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Speaker 1: touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, and then

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Speaker 1: Robbie Anderson's going three to four rounds later, which seems

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Speaker 1: like a pretty good value. He's a wide receiver thirty

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Speaker 1: three right now exploded out of the gates with back

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Speaker 1: to back one yard games last year, UH tailed off

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Speaker 1: with was one of the better draft day steals of

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Speaker 1: pretty consistent. He finished with nine catches in nearly eleven

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Speaker 1: hundred yards. And he's going in the range of guys

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Speaker 1: like Jerry Judy, Tyler Boyd Deebo, Samuel, Brandon Cooks. Those

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Speaker 1: those guys are right in that range. So um, I

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Speaker 1: I think that that Anderson's probably in a pretty good spout.

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Speaker 1: What I like about Anderson He's always been a deep

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Speaker 1: ball guy. Now he's got a quarterback who's got a

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Speaker 1: deep arm. And by the way, Robby Anderson's best season

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Speaker 1: was with the Jets, who was his quarterback, And you

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Speaker 1: take out the hundred or so touches that Curtis Samuel

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Speaker 1: was getting, and now I think and I think Anderson's

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Speaker 1: a pretty good value where he's going. As you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: three four rounds later than DJ Moore, Yeah, and I

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Speaker 1: mean you have Terris Marshall replacing Curtis Samuel, so some

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Speaker 1: of that that work funnels to Terris Marshall. But he

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Speaker 1: is a rookie. Uh he's six ft three, had a

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Speaker 1: four three eight forty. He's gonna deep too, so he's

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Speaker 1: going to be a deep threat. But do they use

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Speaker 1: him a little bit like Curtis Samuel? Maybe? I just

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Speaker 1: think Samuel is so unique and what he did, and

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Speaker 1: there's just you know, there are only so many guys

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Speaker 1: in that Curtis Samuel, h Percy, Harvin, Deebo, Samuel kind

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Speaker 1: of mold that you can't just drop and Terrace Marshall

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Speaker 1: isn't even isn't even built like those guys. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: then you can't can't spell Darnald without a D and Arnold.

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Speaker 1: And I'm sorry that Brian's not going to talk about

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Speaker 1: his buddy Dan Arnold, because you know, if he were here,

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Speaker 1: we'd be talking about Dan Arnold as the obvious best player,

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Speaker 1: most likely player to overachieve compared to his current ADP.

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Speaker 1: Current ADP is tight end thirty three. So even probably

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Speaker 1: think I do agree with with Brian on that point there.

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Speaker 1: Last year he was tight end twenty one, missed a

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Speaker 1: couple of games and only saw forty five targets. And

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Speaker 1: for reference, guys like Hunter hen Re no a Fanse

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Speaker 1: Dalton Schultz, Mike Sicky, Dalton Schultz, Wait, I said, Dalton Schultz,

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Speaker 1: Eric Ebron. They saw ninety ish targets. So if you

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Speaker 1: double dan Arnold's output alongside his targets, so forty five

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Speaker 1: targets into ninety, he's looking at sixty one catches, eight

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Speaker 1: eighty and eight scores. Well, and you know it's not

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Speaker 1: it's not impossible. I don't hate that. You know, will

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Speaker 1: he get ninety targets? I don't think so. But you know,

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Speaker 1: I think the point that ban that Brian would probably

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Speaker 1: make right now were he here is were he here?

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Speaker 1: The efficiency of Dan Arnold on the the passes they

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Speaker 1: did give him were very good. So maybe number one

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Speaker 1: in the league amongst tight ends for average depth of

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Speaker 1: target twelve point six and ninth for yards after catch.

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Speaker 1: There some athleticism with him, but he's on its third

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Speaker 1: team in three years. Teams don't keep him. But this

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Speaker 1: a great opportunity in the middle of the field without

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Speaker 1: Curtis Samuel is now kind of wide open. And so

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Speaker 1: you know, I I like Dan Arnold as my secon

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Speaker 1: can tight end. I do absolutely, And people were saying

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Speaker 1: things like like like we're saying about Dan Arold, about

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Speaker 1: guys like Darren Waller a few years ago and the

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Speaker 1: guys like Logan Thomas who kind of popped out of nowhere.

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Speaker 1: Dan Arnold's a sneaky guy. Um, I'm gonna agree with

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Speaker 1: Brian that he has the most upside possible. And I

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Speaker 1: think it goes without saying that Christian McCaffrey drafting him

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Speaker 1: at one one or one two, he's definitely the riskiest

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Speaker 1: player because we saw what happened when it all goes

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Speaker 1: wrong for Christian McCaffrey last year. Granted, if I'm still

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Speaker 1: at one one or one two and he's on the board,

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Speaker 1: I'm happy to take him. But if if if you

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Speaker 1: are in my position and I'm at one one chart,

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Speaker 1: don't you feel like you want to trade out of

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Speaker 1: that one one this year get to the middle of

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Speaker 1: the first round and add some extra draft capital. I

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Speaker 1: think the middle of the first round is a place

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Speaker 1: to be. I do too. That's that's my to me,

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Speaker 1: that's the sweet spot of this particular year's draft. I

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Speaker 1: I completely agree with everybody always wants to move up.

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Speaker 1: I would rade. I'd rather move back. And most of

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Speaker 1: the time, if you're sitting at one, one, two, one, three,

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Speaker 1: and you offer that up to somebody who's sitting at

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Speaker 1: they'll give you extra you know, they'll do more than

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Speaker 1: just swap that. And by the way, the sneaky play

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Speaker 1: on these deals always is, so you're sitting at one

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Speaker 1: one and you want to move to the middle of

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Speaker 1: the draft, only make it a two round swap, don't.

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Speaker 1: You don't need to make it at every round swap,

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Speaker 1: just the two round. So you know, now I've moved

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Speaker 1: to the middle of the first round, in the middle

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Speaker 1: of the second round, but I get like the first

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Speaker 1: pick of the third round. The stat's the sneaky angle.

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Speaker 1: That's two round swap only. Um, all right, and I

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Speaker 1: think that wraps up the Carolina Panthers. That's all we

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Speaker 1: need to talk about with the Panthers. When we come back,

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Speaker 1: we will talk about the you know, let's get to yeah,

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Speaker 1: let's let's talk Tampa Bay. Let's talk about the Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl champions When we come back, we'll take a quick break.

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Weekly resumes in moments. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly.

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Speaker 1: Paul Chargie and Matt Harrison with me. You can follow

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Speaker 1: us on Twitter. I am at Paul Charchi and he

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Speaker 1: is at explosive output. Yes, all, you're all about the

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Speaker 1: explosive output. I mean, hey, look, you can't take that

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Speaker 1: Twitter handle. I think that there's there's not gonna be

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Speaker 1: some repercussions. Uh, I understand. Uh, let's go to Tampa Bay. Bizarrely,

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Speaker 1: Tampa returns every starting player and coach from their Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl victory. This never happens, never happens. It's it's unreal. Really,

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Speaker 1: Then there's a little reason to believe that they're gonna

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Speaker 1: be any worse than last year. And this offense got

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Speaker 1: better as the season went on and was rocking in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. So the presumption is that they're going to

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Speaker 1: pick up where they left off, and especially if they

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Speaker 1: don't have ongoing injuries to Mike Evans who played hobbled

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Speaker 1: all year, ongoing injuries to Chris Godwin Tom Brady playing

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Speaker 1: with the torn MCL all season as we now know.

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Speaker 1: So the hope here is that Tampa Bay's offense will

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Speaker 1: be even better. Um, And the weird thing is at

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Speaker 1: almost everybody in this offense has an a DP that

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Speaker 1: feels too low. Yeah, it feels like a team that

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Speaker 1: you could definitely especially in best ball. You could stack

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Speaker 1: them very, very easily. Could Let's start with Tom Brady.

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Speaker 1: We're not gonna spend a lot of time and because

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Speaker 1: everybody's everything there is about Tom Brady healthy knee. Now,

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Speaker 1: forty touchdowns last year feels highly attainable this year again,

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Speaker 1: especially if Evans and Godwins stay healthy. Downfield passing those

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Speaker 1: a growing worry. Last year, Brady finished twenty one in

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Speaker 1: completion percentage of passes twenty yards or longer and twenty

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Speaker 1: nine in deep ball accuracy um. But he threw the

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Speaker 1: most deep balls out of everybody in the league, so

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Speaker 1: we made up for it with just sheer volume of

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Speaker 1: letton balls ripped down field. Four deep passes last year. Now,

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Speaker 1: the schedule is not very favorable. Most sites have got

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay with one of the hardest passing schedules in

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Speaker 1: the league. But at some point you just don't care.

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Speaker 1: And it's Tom Brady. He's gonna off the board at

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Speaker 1: quarterback nine and he finished his quarterback eight this year,

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Speaker 1: and you feel like he should be no worse than that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I feel like he's probably a top twelve ish guy

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Speaker 1: for sure. He could again. The forty touchdowns last year

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Speaker 1: feel attainable again here, let's go to his whiteouts for

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Speaker 1: all three of these guys, I think the danger is

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Speaker 1: going to be that there's just not enough ball to

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Speaker 1: go around some games. So some games it's just not

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Speaker 1: a Mike Evans game. Some games it's just not a

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Speaker 1: Chris Godwin game. Some games it's not Antonio Brown's game.

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Speaker 1: And so there's gonna be some highs and lows for

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Speaker 1: all of these guys because they're all requisitive over one targets.

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Speaker 1: And because of that, just some games aren't gonna go

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Speaker 1: your way. There gives them added risk in a guillotine

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Speaker 1: format um. But for most of us, we're gonna ride

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Speaker 1: out the low games because the high games will make

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Speaker 1: up for it, and more often than not, these guys

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Speaker 1: are gonna be fine. Now, do you think, chart with

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Speaker 1: Antonio Brown only playing half of the games last year,

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Speaker 1: his inclusion in the offense with a full offseason and

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Speaker 1: and his head in ack and everything like that, do

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Speaker 1: you think he makes more of a dent in the

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Speaker 1: offense this year? And we looked at Mike Evans get

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Speaker 1: right around a hundred targets last year. Chris Godwin was

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Speaker 1: injured for a little while so he got under the

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Speaker 1: hundred target mark. Are we looking at three wide receivers

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Speaker 1: maybe at the ninety target ish? I think they're all

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Speaker 1: gonna go over. I do. Let's talk about Antonio Brown said.

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Speaker 1: I brought him up first. So last year, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: missed the first eight games of the suspension. Then he

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Speaker 1: had a knee injury in the playoffs. But if we

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Speaker 1: look at that window between the the suspension and the

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Speaker 1: knee injury, once he got settled in, he was averaging

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Speaker 1: six catches, sixty two yards and a little over half

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Speaker 1: a touchdown per game. That's pretty good production. And as

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Speaker 1: a note, he had knee surgery in May, but he's

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Speaker 1: expected to start the season here. He's on a one

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Speaker 1: year contract, so he's highly motivated. He's making only three

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Speaker 1: million dollars. He's only thirty three. He's right, it is,

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Speaker 1: it really is. But he still feels third in the

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Speaker 1: packing order behind Evans Godwin Um and last year he

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Speaker 1: had a disappointing number of low target games in which

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Speaker 1: he really had some flop games built into him. Right

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Speaker 1: now is his ADPs wide receiver thirty three and round nine.

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Speaker 1: A lot of other unproven receivers are in that range.

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Speaker 1: He's a pretty proven receiver of nothing else obviously Antonio Brown.

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Speaker 1: Through my early Best Ball drafts, he was my highest

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Speaker 1: rostered receiver just because I kept getting him in like

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Speaker 1: the tenth round. Right. Yeah, it's like I know that.

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Speaker 1: I think there are people aside there is just there.

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Speaker 1: There are people have just written off into a round

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Speaker 1: completely aren't drafting him, and I think that's an opportunity.

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Speaker 1: I'll tuck Mike Evans, who played all sixteen games last

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Speaker 1: year but played hurt through almost all of them. I

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Speaker 1: feel like Mike Evans is the new Julio Jones. It

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Speaker 1: does feel a little that way. Yeah, I hope, I

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Speaker 1: hope it doesn't come to his quick halt. For Evans

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Speaker 1: emerged as an Infra red Zone East with Tom Brady

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Speaker 1: fourteen targets him inside the ten yard line, second only

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Speaker 1: to Davante Adams, and he was successful with those targets,

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Speaker 1: scoring a career high thirteen times last year fifteen if

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Speaker 1: you include the playoffs. Evans only produced two games without

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Speaker 1: a touchdown or at least fifty six receiving yards. So

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Speaker 1: we ended up being very consistent over the course of

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Speaker 1: the season, and ultimately Matt touchdowns are They are a

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Speaker 1: fantastic equalizer. You know, touchdowns can't touchdowns are king You

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Speaker 1: can offset the two catch twenty yard game when one

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Speaker 1: of them is a touchdown. And Evans had a had

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Speaker 1: a bunch of those, So that is it's an it's

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Speaker 1: a great equalizer. His ADP right now is wide receiver fifteen.

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Speaker 1: That feels a little bit low to me. A little

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Speaker 1: bit more of that about that in a minute. Chris

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Speaker 1: Godwin had the hamstring and finger injuries that derailed a

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Speaker 1: lot of his season last year. But remember he was

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Speaker 1: going off the board at wide receiver seven at this

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Speaker 1: time last year, and he's playing under the franchise tag

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Speaker 1: and that gives him extra incentive and he's finally healthy.

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Speaker 1: And now, by the way, he was finally healthy by

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Speaker 1: the end of last year, and he surged in December

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Speaker 1: and January. During those two months, he averaged seventy yards

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Speaker 1: and almost a touchdown per game. Week fifteen through the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. He was great. And Tom Brady's got that

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Speaker 1: long history of feeding his slot receivers Danny Ammondola, Julian

396
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Speaker 1: Edelman as those are. You know, when healthy Godwin should

397
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Speaker 1: see a lot of targets his ADP is three spots

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Speaker 1: after Mike Evans. They're going right next to each other.

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Speaker 1: Which one's the value? I mean you said it to

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Speaker 1: be that the onset. There's so much value in all

401
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Speaker 1: of them, it's gonna be really hard to pick the

402
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Speaker 1: most upside player in this group. Let's go to tight end.

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Speaker 1: We got another value, the opportunity value. So Rob Gronkowski, Um,

404
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Speaker 1: you know you're you're drafting ground for touchdowns. Even with

405
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Speaker 1: Evans hogging a lot of them, Gronk is still a

406
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Speaker 1: prime guy for red zone use. Of the red zone

407
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Speaker 1: targets last year went to Cronk, which is awfully It's

408
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Speaker 1: an awfully high number. Um. His snaps are frustratingly low,

409
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Speaker 1: usually around fifty to fifty five per game, but that's

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Speaker 1: still it's still good enough to keep him on the

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Speaker 1: field knees exactly. Um. It took him a while last

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Speaker 1: year to get his feet underneath him after the year off.

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Speaker 1: But if you look at Gronk from weeks six to

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Speaker 1: weeks seventeen, you average five targets, three catches, forty four

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Speaker 1: yards and point six touchdowns. And that's not bad. Now.

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Speaker 1: You have to note, though O. J. Howard played the

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Speaker 1: first four weeks and was the top tight end on

418
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Speaker 1: that roster for the first four weeks. Then he got injured.

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Speaker 1: He had two touchdowns in the first four weeks. Gronk

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Speaker 1: head zero touchdowns in the first four weeks. We could

421
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Speaker 1: be seeing Tampa go back to O. J. Howard getting

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Speaker 1: more snaps than Gronk on the field. That's my one

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Speaker 1: drawback with Gronk this year is that maybe he's only

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Speaker 1: an infrared zone player and that's it. Now. In the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl, which I have reasonably is a really important game,

426
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 1: seems important. Gronk scored twice and they you know they

427
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 1: Tom Brady knows and loves Gronk, and I just think

428
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 1: from it, if you want for where he's going, um,

429
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,399
Speaker 1: where he's going out tight end twelve, I think he

430
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:16,120
Speaker 1: gives you a touchdown potential every single game. Now, Tampa

431
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 1: is not building their team to win US Fantasy Championships.

432
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 1: They're building this team to win super Bowls. They want

433
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,120
Speaker 1: to save Gronk for the end of the Super Bowl

434
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:26,919
Speaker 1: because he's he's been injured so many times at the

435
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 1: tail end of the year, I think they want to

436
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 1: save him. It wouldn't surprise me if Gronk is used

437
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 1: minimally in the first half of the season. I like

438
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,639
Speaker 1: your contrarian thinking, and it's not impossible. But O. J.

439
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 1: Howard has to come back from an a c L. Yeah,

440
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:41,360
Speaker 1: he's he's been an underachiever since being a first round

441
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 1: pick his entire career. Okay, Cameron Braid's also there, but

442
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 1: Braid was really not a factor at all last year.

443
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:48,679
Speaker 1: I just think you have to know what you're in

444
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 1: for for for Gronkowski standards scoring leagues, I think he's

445
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 1: still very valuable PPR. You have to show some caution Gronk. Alright,

446
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 1: last thing running backs and this turned into a very

447
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:01,680
Speaker 1: long discussion on Tampa. But this it's such a meaty team.

448
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:05,920
Speaker 1: Um in June. So last month Arian said he's got

449
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 1: co number one running backs. I contend neither one is

450
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 1: a true number one running back and good enough to

451
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,920
Speaker 1: be a true number one. That's why he said they're

452
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 1: co Um. He's Arians has always been the flaky ist,

453
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 1: flukey ist, ficklest and another effort that I'd love to

454
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 1: drop right now, head coach for running bulky uh funkiest

455
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 1: funky ist Um drafter eating for either for Net or

456
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 1: Jones means that you are in a week two week

457
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 1: crap shoot that you cannot see coming. We could not

458
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,120
Speaker 1: forecast it last year. I remember so many times trying

459
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:47,480
Speaker 1: to figure out the Ronald Jones versus Leonard four Net

460
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 1: thing and simply read the tea leaves, saw the trends,

461
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 1: focused on the trends, and then then he flipped it. Yeah,

462
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 1: he'd flip it. And a lot of times it won't

463
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 1: even matter if the guy was any good, you know. Um, So, yeah,

464
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 1: let's start with Leonard four Nette and probably he went

465
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 1: from a player who was mostly on the bench during

466
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 1: the regular season and periodically helping fantasy players and just

467
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 1: periodically getting carries, and his usage was super low and weird,

468
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 1: and then he crushed through the playoffs and put Ronald

469
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 1: Jones on the bench. But during the season he was bad.

470
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 1: Just one yard game and it was sandwiched. He's so,

471
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 1: this is so typical variants. He had the one one

472
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: yard game, the game before that five yards, the game

473
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:37,640
Speaker 1: after that fifteen yards. How you're supposed to guess that well,

474
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 1: And the problem is is his one hundred yard game

475
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,879
Speaker 1: came out only twelve carries, so he had to break

476
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,239
Speaker 1: a few to make that one yard game. It's not

477
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 1: like you're gonna plan on getting fifteen carries for either

478
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 1: of these guys. You're not gonna You're not gonna feel

479
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 1: comfortable starting a guy on the Tampa running game and

480
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 1: and feel like you're gonna getes now. For Net's always

481
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 1: been this soft tissue injury guy, hamstrings and strains and

482
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 1: stuff like that. The light workload kept him healthy for

483
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 1: the playoffs. It's a little bit of your Grounk theory

484
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 1: right here, and I wouldn't be surprised. This is probably

485
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,440
Speaker 1: my biggest contrarian take. Leonard Fournetts is going off the

486
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 1: board before Ronald Jones. Everybody remembers the playoffs. I think

487
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 1: you're gonna do the same damn thing. Ronald Jones the

488
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 1: better running back. Every single Pro Football Focus metric has

489
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 1: Ronald Jones is the better back, and you can get

490
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,400
Speaker 1: them later, and you can get them later, broken tackles,

491
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 1: positive run rate, yards after contact, pass blocking, every single thing.

492
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 1: Ronald Jones a better running back than four Net, and

493
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 1: I think that that's gonna yield. Ronald Jones is the

494
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 1: more reliable starter during the regular season percentage of your

495
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,199
Speaker 1: fantasy teams that will have a Buccaneers running back on

496
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 1: it this year five to it's gonna be Jones four

497
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 1: NET will be zero for net will be zero. Offensive

498
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 1: line is borderline awesome. They finished last year's the fifth

499
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 1: best line. Everybody's back. Last year's rookie right tackle Tristan

500
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 1: Worth's was stellar. Their left tackle Donovan Smith has improved

501
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 1: for seven straight years. The interior line is good allie

502
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 1: Mark petsis down a standout guy, and they spent a

503
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:16,120
Speaker 1: third round pick on utility lineman Robert Hainzi, who will

504
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 1: patch any holes that may develop over the course of

505
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 1: the season. So there you go. Offensive line is very good,

506
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 1: setting the rest of that offense up to be very

507
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 1: good in Tampa. The riskiest player it is current ADP

508
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 1: Leonard four Net round thirty three, sorry, round seven, running

509
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 1: back thirty three and a disaster during the regular season.

510
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 1: The mercurial use I just I don't I don't want

511
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 1: any part of that from a risk standpoint. He's only

512
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 1: the seventh round pick though, but he's running back thirty three.

513
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 1: There's better way more instant guys to me at that level.

514
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 1: That's it's but it's Joss Edwards. I love those guys

515
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,880
Speaker 1: way more um and the play with the most upside

516
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 1: to me is Chris Godwin top ten upside in PPR formats,

517
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: going at a steep discount because of last year's miss season.

518
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:02,679
Speaker 1: I completely agree. Let's take one more break. Okay, all right,

519
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 1: We'll take one more break when we come back. Let's

520
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 1: talk about the Saints without Michael Thomas for probably half

521
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,400
Speaker 1: the year. Let's hope it's not half the hear gee,

522
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 1: that's you know, that's what we think is going to

523
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:16,959
Speaker 1: be the case. Here, We'll we'll talk that through when

524
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 1: we come back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Fantasy Football Weekly

525
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 1: continues Paul Charchi and Matt Harrison with you. It was

526
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 1: already a tricky offense for the Saints because of the

527
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 1: quarterback situation, Matt, and now knowing that Michael Thomas, the

528
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:35,680
Speaker 1: you know, the one steadying part of that passing attack,

529
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 1: it's going to miss what's expected to be roughly half

530
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 1: of the first half for the first month. Yeah, for

531
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 1: lucky the first month, but then even if you look

532
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 1: at what happened last year, you know it dragged on

533
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 1: and to come back, gosh, who knows? This thing is

534
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 1: really frustrating and so let's talk about it an offense

535
00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 1: that's in major, major flux right now. Yeah, so it's

536
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 1: in major flux. But remember, we had the vaporized ghost

537
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 1: of Drew Brees last year. It wasn't the real Drew

538
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 1: Brees last year. It was some weird bizarro version of

539
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 1: Drew Brees that we've never seen before. And he was

540
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 1: injured and we got we all thought we were gonna

541
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 1: get Jamis Winston, and then we got Taysom Hill and yeah,

542
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 1: now we're looking at those two guys battling it out

543
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 1: for the quarterback position. Can I tell you my opinion

544
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 1: on this, and you can go, go Taysom Hill can't pass,

545
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: and sooner or later and he might quarterback to be

546
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 1: able to pass, and you know, you hope to god

547
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 1: Jamis Winston isn't the thirty thirty guy that he was

548
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 1: two years ago. You mean thirty touchdown passes and thirty

549
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns, right, No, I don't. I mean thirty passing

550
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,800
Speaker 1: touchdowns and thirty interceptions, which is really hard to do.

551
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 1: To stay on the field there when you've thrown thirty interceptions.

552
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 1: No quarterback ever again, who throws the the interception? It's

553
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 1: so hard um, So you have to have nobody else.

554
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 1: That's part of it. A lot of teams don't, um.

555
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:12,239
Speaker 1: And so I I think you know, Taysom Hill is

556
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 1: a great utility, weird player that you can plug into

557
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 1: different situations and you can run, even catching and pass

558
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 1: blah blah blah. But I just think you can't count

559
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 1: on his passing. You never know when to start him

560
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 1: because he doesn't run in a path. If he does

561
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 1: not run, If Taysom Hill does not run you a touchdown,

562
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 1: he gets you nothing, and it's a disaster for your

563
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 1: fantasy team. Is this looking to you? And and maybe

564
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 1: this is my read on it too, is Jamis Winston

565
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 1: is the quarterback until they reached the red zone or

566
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 1: the infrared zone, and then comes in, comes in and

567
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 1: gets you know, three or four rushing attempts and five

568
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 1: or six passing attempts per game, and it just cannibalizes

569
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 1: all the value for Jamis Winston as it could go

570
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 1: that way, and you know, it could turn Jamison into

571
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 1: a thirty touchdown passer into a twenty Yeah, and that's

572
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,959
Speaker 1: a then twenty. I've got Teddy Bridgewater. Yeah, it's dagger

573
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 1: right there. Teddy doesn't has never hit twenty. But you

574
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 1: know what I mean. Yeah, so, um, everybody wants Winston

575
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 1: to win this job. ADP reflects that he's quarterback twenty nine.

576
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 1: Hill is quarterback thirty one. But again, we probably won't

577
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 1: know who the starting quarterback is. You might not know

578
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 1: a week, a week or day before the season. We

579
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 1: might not know. You might not know after the second

580
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:26,719
Speaker 1: drive of the game of the first game of the season. Um,

581
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 1: let's talk about the wide receivers. Though Michael Thomas was

582
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 1: preseason wide receiver number one, uh last year. Yeah, obviously, Uh,

583
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 1: the injury is going to uh stop that this year

584
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 1: for sure. I've re ranked him at roughly quarterback fifty

585
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 1: in regular leagues and for for guillotine leagues and basically

586
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 1: undraftable and wide in guillotine format. Yeah, I think that

587
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 1: that's probably correct. Um, now, he was going mid third

588
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 1: until now. Now he's probably punished eash tenth, maybe eight,

589
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 1: maybe around that Leonard four net range where people are

590
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,280
Speaker 1: starting to take dart throws at running backs they don't like,

591
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 1: and they go, oh, Michael Thomas. Some somebody will be

592
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 1: dumb enough in a few leagues to go, oh, take

593
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 1: him in the fourth round. Yeah, sweet, Um. But now

594
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 1: Trey Kwon Smith is probably the top wide receiver on

595
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 1: the board. What is that His a DP was wide

596
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 1: receiver seventy three, so I pushed him in about wide

597
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 1: receiver fifty as well. He's very close to Michael Thomas

598
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 1: now just because you know, and losing Michael Thomas hurts

599
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 1: the whole offense. I mean, no part of the offense

600
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 1: is better. They're gonna score less touchdowns, the cross, the

601
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 1: fifty less often, the kick, loss field goals of every

602
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: part of it's bad. But Trey Kwan Smith will see

603
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 1: more passes. Yeah. He only had fifty targets last year, um,

604
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 1: and was very inconsistent in his role with Emmanuel Sanders

605
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 1: there as well, and he's gone to if he can

606
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 1: get close to a hundred this year with both of

607
00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 1: those guys gone, I mean, he's probably heatering close to

608
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 1: nine hundred thousand yards maybe in like six touchdowns. He's

609
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 1: been so unreliable. Just sheer volume. Maybe it helps, uh.

610
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 1: And then there's Deonte Harris, who's the other wide receiver

611
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 1: and roster. I have to think that the Saints are

612
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 1: in the market for the scrap heap of wide receivers

613
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 1: who are let go for one reason or another drink camp,

614
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 1: or maybe they're involved in a trade. As trade floated

615
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 1: out there today Litavius Murray uh to the Rams for

616
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 1: Van Jefferson and and a draft pick or something along

617
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: those lines, which would be really interesting. Van Jefferson would

618
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 1: instantly walk in and be wide receiver one on that

619
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 1: you'd have to give up more than Yeah, I have

620
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 1: to give up more than Ottavius Murray buttas Murray. And

621
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 1: probably that's the kind of team you're looking for. A

622
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:47,240
Speaker 1: team that's deep at receiver. It's got somebody that they

623
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 1: can that's you know, movable. Yeah. Absolutely. Um. Adam Troutman

624
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 1: is kind of an interesting guy. He's getting drafted right

625
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 1: around Johnuin Gronk right now at tight end eighteen. Uh.

626
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 1: Troutman is the tight end and one there right now

627
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 1: Jared Cook is gone. Uh. And tight ends have been

628
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 1: heavily utilized in New Orleans, going back to Jimmy Graham

629
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:11,760
Speaker 1: and beyond Jeremy Shocky with those flowing blonde locks. Uh.

630
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 1: Since nineteen the Saints are one of five teams to

631
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 1: record twenty plus tight end touchdowns. That's pretty good. That

632
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 1: is pretty good. Um and then Alvin Kamara. He's like

633
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:27,799
Speaker 1: probably the only guy that you can feel kind of

634
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 1: confident drafting on your roster. Again, I'll mention it, you know,

635
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 1: losing Michael Thomas for it's everybody, including camera, it does.

636
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 1: But man, could he get a lot of use in

637
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,400
Speaker 1: this offense. Now, well, they did resign him to that

638
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 1: giant deal last last season, so uh, he's he's there.

639
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 1: Bell Cow, He's their work horse, although they've never used

640
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 1: him as a true bell Cow runner. He's only got

641
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 1: one career regular season game with twenty plus carries. That

642
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 1: was the Christmas double hat trick against the Vikings last year.

643
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 1: I will never forget it because I lost two championships

644
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:09,279
Speaker 1: playing against Alvin Camara. And that was on the Saturday game.

645
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,919
Speaker 1: Remember that, And so you're rolling into Sunday going while

646
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 1: I've lost, it's over my whole roster to go and

647
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 1: I've already lost. That game was also one of his

648
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 1: two career games with a hundred plus rushing yards. But

649
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:24,240
Speaker 1: that's it. He's been amazing. He's been an absolute monster

650
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 1: in the passing game, and with no passing targets to

651
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 1: be found, he might break the record this year for

652
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 1: receptions by running back uh in the red zone, since

653
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 1: he has the most red zone targets among running backs

654
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 1: with fifty six. James White is second with forty nine

655
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 1: and Zeke is third with thirty six. But the two

656
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 1: main concerns are Number One, Taysom Hill, who could snipe

657
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of red zone stuff for him, and

658
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 1: he did snipe a fair amount when he started last year. Yeah,

659
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 1: and you're also looking at Lettavius Murray, who does get

660
00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 1: work near the stripe, but also his his biggest concern

661
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:04,719
Speaker 1: is they don't have any other weapons right now. They've

662
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:06,799
Speaker 1: got nothing else. The offenses are going to show up

663
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 1: with a game plan that just says take Alvin Camara away,

664
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 1: it's gonna be Saints can't beat you eight in the box,

665
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,759
Speaker 1: and and see what they can do. I mean, you've

666
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 1: got Sean Payton and you've got Pete Carmichael, who are

667
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:19,719
Speaker 1: great offensive minds. They've been together in New Orleans for

668
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: twelve years. Maybe they can see this through. They did

669
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,359
Speaker 1: rank fifth in points per game last year and they

670
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 1: were fifth in run percent last year at so this

671
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:35,319
Speaker 1: might be the heaviest run offense in the league. So

672
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,800
Speaker 1: I mean Camara. He's not the risk is Michael Thomas

673
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 1: is obviously the riskiest play, but Camara can be right

674
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 1: up there in in the risk value because you just

675
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:48,280
Speaker 1: don't have the confidence that he's going to get twenty

676
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 1: plus touches a game and you gotta draft him at

677
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: pick number four. The player with the most upside on

678
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:55,800
Speaker 1: this Saints roster, in my opinion, and feel free to

679
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:59,360
Speaker 1: agree or not he probably won't is Adam Troman. I

680
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 1: think so, Adam Trobman. You know, going off the border wide,

681
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 1: you're at tight end eighteen. I've got him right now

682
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 1: on my sheet after this injury. I believe I got

683
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 1: him a tight end eleven. I just think he's super athletic.

684
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 1: And if you and I look at the rest of

685
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 1: this roster and I don't see room for people to

686
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 1: get a lot better than they've already shown. Troutman can

687
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:20,879
Speaker 1: get a lot better. And I wonder if how much

688
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,839
Speaker 1: of this offense is passing offense won't end up going

689
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:27,879
Speaker 1: to Troutman, and especially um when Taysom Hill needs high

690
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 1: percentage passes because he's not a good passer and it

691
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 1: feels like a lot of dump off stuff to the

692
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 1: tight end well, yeah, and Jamis Winston is an air

693
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:37,360
Speaker 1: and out kind of guy, so it doesn't None of

694
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:39,879
Speaker 1: this stuff seems to make sense and play together where

695
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 1: you can feel like you can forecast it really accurately

696
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 1: this season. Maybe Will Lutz is the highest upside play

697
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 1: kicking fifty two yard bombs might have You might have

698
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:54,799
Speaker 1: to uh, let's go to the Atlanta Falcons, a new

699
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 1: coaching staff led by former Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.

700
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 1: But we can automatically assume that Smith is gonna be

701
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 1: anywhere near his run heavy with the Falcons as he

702
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 1: was when he had Derrick Henry at his disposal. But

703
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 1: it's probably safe to assume that this team won't rank

704
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 1: twenty four and run percentage like they did last year.

705
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:16,720
Speaker 1: They will was a terrible, terrible stable of running backs

706
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,720
Speaker 1: last year, and Mike Daley was so cooked. Mike Davis

707
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 1: looked a lot better than anything that they had last year.

708
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 1: He did, especially in the first half of the season,

709
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 1: but I thought he really wore down. And we'll talk

710
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:30,240
Speaker 1: a little bit more about him now. Smith. By the way,

711
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:34,280
Speaker 1: Arthur Smith says he's looking back at Kyle Shanahan's schemes

712
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 1: when he was offensive coordinator of the Falcons. Okay, which

713
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,760
Speaker 1: is pretty smart. That was their Super Bowl year and

714
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,359
Speaker 1: look at what worked here, Yes, exactly, even though most

715
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:44,960
Speaker 1: of the personnel has changed, but the one thing it

716
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 1: has and of course is Matt Ryan. Um and Ryan

717
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 1: the statistically last year he looked a lot like the

718
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan of the previous year. But if you watched

719
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan, you saw inaccuracy that we had never seen before,

720
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 1: failure to Nolson, read plays that we had never seen before,

721
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 1: missing open receivers. He started to look broken and I'm

722
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:11,359
Speaker 1: worried about his effectiveness at age thirty six, uh, particularly

723
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 1: shaky with downfield passing. On deep passes of more than

724
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 1: twenty yards. Ryan through the most interceptions and four touchdowns,

725
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:24,840
Speaker 1: that's it all year. Four touchdowns was second worst amongst starters.

726
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:28,760
Speaker 1: That's scary. That is on deep passing and that and

727
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:30,840
Speaker 1: then you add in the loss of Julio Jones. Obviously

728
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 1: that significant. Will Kyle Pitt's help probably, but not enough

729
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 1: to offset Julio Jones. Does that torpedo your value of

730
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 1: Calvin Ridley? Well, I'm glad you transitioned to Calvin Ridley.

731
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: I think he's going to see a monstrous target share

732
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 1: like most people do, uh, considering the quality of the

733
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 1: other whiteouts. And it's not new territory for Ridley who

734
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 1: was the go to receiver. He was the number one

735
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 1: receiver last year with Julio Jones lumping to the whole thing.

736
00:39:57,800 --> 00:39:59,879
Speaker 1: He led the team in targets, receptions, yards and touched.

737
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 1: So you know, it's not like resking Calvin Ridley to

738
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 1: assume the mantle of number one and we don't know

739
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 1: if he can do it. He did it last year. Um,

740
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:10,360
Speaker 1: he topped one hundred yards in five of the seven

741
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 1: games Julio Jones missed last year. That makes me feel great.

742
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 1: The average eleven targets in non Julio Jones games last year,

743
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 1: and that's when teams were game planning for and they

744
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 1: didn't have a Kyle Pitts correct correct. Um, he's a

745
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 1: great downfield target. He led the league in both a

746
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 1: dot and air yards last year. Ridley did only just

747
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:36,320
Speaker 1: He tied justin Jefferson for the most twenty yard catches

748
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:39,840
Speaker 1: last year. So I mean Ridley is great. You can

749
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 1: you can defend a case to make Ridley wide receiver one.

750
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 1: It's a defensible case. Okay, I don't have him there.

751
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 1: I think he got him at five UM, but that

752
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 1: is that's a case you can make. Underwent offseason foot surgery.

753
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:52,399
Speaker 1: Didn't participate in the team's off season program, but he's

754
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 1: expected to be ready for training camp. Your slot receivers

755
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 1: Russell Gage, who figures to be third or fourth and targets,

756
00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 1: which makes him viable for raw spot. He saw a

757
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 1: hundred nine targets last year. Russell Gauge didn't. Yeah, with

758
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:06,359
Speaker 1: all those Julio Jones miss games, it does feel that way.

759
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:12,760
Speaker 1: Hund nights a lot, Yeah, he didn't. Evans had left UM.

760
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 1: He had one of the shortest A dots in the

761
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:18,840
Speaker 1: league average distance of throws and that was um. That's

762
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 1: one of the problems that he had. Uh. You know,

763
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 1: when you're getting the ball to the line of scrimmage,

764
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 1: it's hard to be meaningful with that, and that's how

765
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 1: you only score four touchdowns on the season. But Gauge

766
00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:31,879
Speaker 1: has some real PPR upside and no way he's under

767
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 1: the hundred nine targets he had last year. Well, and

768
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:37,760
Speaker 1: adding a tight end like Kyle Pitts to that mix

769
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 1: probably helps free up your slot receiver just a little bit.

770
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: More agreed, So I I really I really like that

771
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 1: from that standpoint. The other starting receiver is expected to

772
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 1: be a battle. Last year it was Olamedy zakias Um,

773
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:55,280
Speaker 1: now in his third year after being undrafted. He doesn't

774
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 1: do much for me, Honestly, I don't. I didn't. He

775
00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,439
Speaker 1: did not seem to splash in any way that I saw.

776
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 1: And the worry here is that Kyle Pitts is going

777
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 1: to be closer to a wide receiver than a tight end.

778
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:09,160
Speaker 1: And if he does that, then Zachius Zackius is out

779
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 1: of Christian Blake or Cordarrel Patterson who's now in Atlanta

780
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 1: probably correct. So let's talk Pitts. I'm gonna give you

781
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 1: the storyline nobody wants to hear about Kyle Pitts. I

782
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 1: know what it is I've been doing. There's way more

783
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 1: variation impossible outcome than people realize with Pitts, even though

784
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 1: he is a great talent and he looks as promising

785
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 1: as any tight end that that's come out in years.

786
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 1: But and by the way, I mean, if they basically

787
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:44,799
Speaker 1: just don't make him a tight end and they just

788
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 1: let him play wide receiver, then I really like Kyle

789
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 1: Pitts and I think he can live up to his

790
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:53,400
Speaker 1: draft status. But right now is ADPs wide is tighten four. Yeah, four,

791
00:42:54,360 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 1: So let's talk about that. And yeah, it doesn't surprise him.

792
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:03,319
Speaker 1: Redrafts Dynasty redrafts is tight end one, UM, and he's

793
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 1: in the conversation for the number one pick in dynasty.

794
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:09,359
Speaker 1: In rookie dynasty drafts, you can you know, you can

795
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:13,920
Speaker 1: take him first of all if you wanted to. Um,

796
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 1: he's got he's got a battle. Hayden Hurst, who is

797
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:19,760
Speaker 1: a good player and a veteran player who knows everything

798
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 1: he needs to know about you know, how to conduct himself,

799
00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:24,239
Speaker 1: how to pass, protect, how to run, block, and everything else.

800
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 1: He has all the advantages of being a of a

801
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 1: former first round tight end. I mean, Hayden Hurst is

802
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 1: not bad. And remember, even though we have a new

803
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:34,799
Speaker 1: coaching staff, this is a team just two years ago

804
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 1: spent a second and fifth round pick to acquire Hayden Hurst.

805
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:40,719
Speaker 1: So they still want some The front office would still

806
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:44,160
Speaker 1: like some return on that investment. And I think as

807
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:46,879
Speaker 1: excited as we get his fantasy owners about the new

808
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:50,279
Speaker 1: exciting rookie, how many times are we frustrated at how

809
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 1: long it takes for him to take over for the

810
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:58,520
Speaker 1: veteran charge. Can I can I combat you a little

811
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:02,040
Speaker 1: bit on this? Where was Arthur Smith last year he

812
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:05,400
Speaker 1: was in Tennessee? And who was his really athletic tight end,

813
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 1: John jana Janu and I love John and how they

814
00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 1: utilized John U Johannu in that healthy utilized them at

815
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:16,359
Speaker 1: in a similar kind of thing where they had an

816
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 1: alpha wide receiver and a J. Brown. I think that

817
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 1: Hunter or hayden Hurst, sorry not Hunter, Henry too many

818
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 1: double H tight ends. Hayden Hurst becomes that blocking, veteran

819
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 1: savvy tight end who can be out there. But I

820
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 1: think they use Kyle Pitts more like a little slash player,

821
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:37,279
Speaker 1: a little wide receiver, maybe a few runs out of

822
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:40,360
Speaker 1: the backfield like they did with John U Janu. Maybe

823
00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 1: he's just kind of that weird X factor and because

824
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 1: they're using him more as an X factor, they are not.

825
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 1: He doesn't have the similar tight end rookie numbers that

826
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 1: we've seen from years past. So let's tide to talk

827
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:57,879
Speaker 1: about the rookie numbers for fight ends, because I mean,

828
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 1: we can, but it's not good. So tight end is

829
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:08,800
Speaker 1: a complicated position that takes tip most most of the elite,

830
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 1: even Hall of Fame bound tight ends, typically needed their

831
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:18,240
Speaker 1: third year to really have it all click. So let's

832
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:21,160
Speaker 1: talk about what history says. If we go back through

833
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 1: two decades of first round tight ends, two decades of

834
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 1: first round tight ends, their average rookie season is tight

835
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 1: end thirty two, averaging thirty yards, three hundred fifty sorry,

836
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 1: thirty receptions, three hundred fifty eight yards, and two touchdowns.

837
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 1: That is a disaster season. That's first rounders over twenty years.

838
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:56,239
Speaker 1: That but you might say, this guy, Kyle Pitts is

839
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 1: way better than other first round tight ends. And so

840
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 1: let's let's hone it into just tight ends taken in

841
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:06,120
Speaker 1: the first ten picks over the last year. It's been

842
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:09,920
Speaker 1: a disaster because Detroit keeps taking them. That average is

843
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:16,360
Speaker 1: somehow worse, averaging twenty catches, two hundred thirty two yards

844
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 1: and one and a half touchdowns on the season tight

845
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:23,160
Speaker 1: end fifty Alright, So tight ends taken in the first

846
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 1: ten picks over the last twenty years, that's their first

847
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:30,279
Speaker 1: season average. Well playing over under game. Uh, do you

848
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:33,399
Speaker 1: think Kyle Pitts will have over or under sixty four

849
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:41,879
Speaker 1: receptions over the last twenty years, one tight end has

850
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 1: exceeded sixty four receptions in their rookie years. So I

851
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:52,440
Speaker 1: will say, under, okay, how about seven twenty two yards? Um, well,

852
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:55,880
Speaker 1: you're giving me Everan Ingram's giving you Evn Ingram's rookie numbers,

853
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 1: So I will do you think he has a better

854
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 1: rookie season than Evan Ingram's best tight end rookie season

855
00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:05,280
Speaker 1: of all time, which was sixty four for seven twenty

856
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 1: two and six scores. I feel if if they line

857
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 1: him up as a wide receiver and we don't know,

858
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:13,080
Speaker 1: then I think he can exceed those numbers, and and

859
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:17,280
Speaker 1: probably by a bit of a margin. But if Kyle

860
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:20,239
Speaker 1: Pitts is asked to play a more traditional tight end role,

861
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,920
Speaker 1: then he's just mathematically he's very unlikely to hit those

862
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 1: So if if he gets just Evan Ingram's rookie numbers

863
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 1: and he's in line with the best rookie tight end

864
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:33,560
Speaker 1: season of all time, then he's tight end, then the

865
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:36,719
Speaker 1: tight end four is about right, yep, because then he

866
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 1: finishes if we're looking at last year's numbers, even with

867
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 1: t J. Hockenson at tight end number five, Yeah, that's

868
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:46,840
Speaker 1: it's about right. So it's just, you know, again, I

869
00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:48,920
Speaker 1: realized nobody wants to hear this about Kyle Pitts. It's

870
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:50,720
Speaker 1: such a great story and he's such a great talent,

871
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 1: But so he he's the biggest risk. Absolutely, He is

872
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 1: ADP of round four for a rookie tight end. He

873
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:02,799
Speaker 1: has to buck twin years of trend to pay off

874
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:06,440
Speaker 1: on that. Yeah, that's absolutely crazy. And considering t J.

875
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 1: Hockenson's going well, I think that I would too. I

876
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 1: have actually Hockinson ranked higher um, but the ADPs significantly later.

877
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:18,400
Speaker 1: You get him a round or two later, and I

878
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:21,399
Speaker 1: think that you have safety and Hockinson He's gonna be

879
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 1: just an absolute beasts as far as targets this year

880
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:26,520
Speaker 1: in Detroit. So earlier today I talked to Dan Miller,

881
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:29,400
Speaker 1: the play by play voice of the Lions, and we

882
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:32,359
Speaker 1: talked about this. Their wide receivers are horrible. Lions would

883
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 1: be losing in almost every game, and Hockinson is going

884
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 1: to be a target hog. Hundred and thirty targets for

885
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 1: Hockinson and Goff's not a big downfield thrower. Yeah, and

886
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:45,280
Speaker 1: you know, and you know, if you're thinking about golfs,

887
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:47,480
Speaker 1: tight ends never did much. But if you were to

888
00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:49,600
Speaker 1: have combined We talked about this. We broke down the

889
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 1: RAMS a couple of weeks ago. If you were to

890
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 1: combine Gerald Everett and Tyler Higby together in tight end,

891
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:56,440
Speaker 1: you had tight end five. Last year it was a

892
00:48:56,480 --> 00:49:00,759
Speaker 1: super tight end. It was a robot tight end. UM,

893
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 1: let's talk Mike Davis and then we'll wrap this up.

894
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:07,239
Speaker 1: Or if we're running long party. It's our longest podcast yet,

895
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:12,400
Speaker 1: I like to talk. Yeah, it has Mike Davis, probably

896
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:17,280
Speaker 1: the last of the workhorse running backs who's getting drafted. UM,

897
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 1: his competition for running back looks is Kadre Allison, undrafted

898
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 1: rookie Javian Hawkins, and if Cordelle Patterson is a running back,

899
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:29,319
Speaker 1: then Cordiello Patterson super low mileage at twenty eight years old.

900
00:49:29,440 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 1: Twenty it feels a little old for running backs, but

901
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:34,720
Speaker 1: he's had so little use. But he did wear down

902
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 1: over the course of last season when they asked him

903
00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 1: to be the starter all year. I think his rushing

904
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:44,320
Speaker 1: is pretty average. UM. He averaged only zero point zero

905
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 1: nine yards over expectations expectation by next Gen stats and

906
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:51,840
Speaker 1: three point nine yards per carry last year was pretty

907
00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:57,480
Speaker 1: disheartening for Mike Davis. Positives are these. His positive run

908
00:49:57,560 --> 00:50:01,000
Speaker 1: rate was so that was good. Is can tackle rate was,

909
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:05,359
Speaker 1: which was good by league standards, and the averaged two

910
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 1: points seven yards after contact. Those are all positives. And

911
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:10,759
Speaker 1: he's a very good receiver fifty nine receptions last year,

912
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:15,080
Speaker 1: but he only turned fifty nine receptions into three seventy

913
00:50:15,080 --> 00:50:18,919
Speaker 1: three yards and two scores. Okay, he's probably looking at

914
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 1: a very low average depth of target last year with

915
00:50:22,080 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater in the Carolina offense that it was probably

916
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:28,759
Speaker 1: a negative average might have been now Arthur Smith never

917
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 1: threw to his running backs, but he had Derris Derrick

918
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:33,759
Speaker 1: Henry there. So don't know really if how much he'll

919
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:36,480
Speaker 1: throw to Mike Davis. But Davis is a good receiver,

920
00:50:36,680 --> 00:50:38,560
Speaker 1: and the hope is that he gets at least the

921
00:50:38,600 --> 00:50:40,879
Speaker 1: same fifty nine receptions that he got last year. Plus

922
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:43,600
Speaker 1: they've had the pictures floating around Twitter of you know,

923
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 1: the quads of Mike Davis, right, epic quads, pretty good quads, right,

924
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:51,879
Speaker 1: But and he also has two knees, which the lead

925
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 1: back in Atlanta didn't have last year exactly exactly. Um

926
00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:59,480
Speaker 1: last thing I'll mention very briefly, offensive line below average

927
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:03,000
Speaker 1: but not whole rble. Jake Matthews is solid. Right tackle

928
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 1: Caleb McGarry better in his second season, but still liability

929
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 1: and pass blocking uh. Right guard Chris Lindstrom, former first

930
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:13,400
Speaker 1: round pick, very good uh. And but overall this is

931
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 1: just a middle of the pack line and they have

932
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:17,799
Speaker 1: to replace veterans center Alex mac w went over to

933
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 1: San Francisco, and one of the reasons I'm so excited

934
00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 1: about that San Francisco offense this year is Alex mcnow there. Uh.

935
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:28,760
Speaker 1: They're gonna have ask a rookie probably um Drew Dolman

936
00:51:28,920 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 1: or a sophomore Matt Hennessy to play that, and they've

937
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:35,320
Speaker 1: neither one. Is they're totally green. So something I a

938
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:37,320
Speaker 1: worried there. So your risk is player at ADP Skyle

939
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 1: Pitts the player with the most upside. I think it's

940
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:42,439
Speaker 1: Russell Gage. Why did receiver fifty five and it could

941
00:51:42,480 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 1: be sitting at a hundred and twenty targets and maybe

942
00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:47,799
Speaker 1: think it's got to be a little bit of an

943
00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:49,799
Speaker 1: uptick from last year And I didn't know he had

944
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:52,320
Speaker 1: a hundred nine last year. Where did that come from?

945
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 1: Where did that come from? A great job nice back

946
00:51:55,680 --> 00:51:58,360
Speaker 1: on the show Man. Yeah, hey, shock Fantasy dot com

947
00:51:58,719 --> 00:52:03,759
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948
00:52:03,880 --> 00:52:07,960
Speaker 1: uh year long membership Shock Fantasy for only bucks. All right,

949
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 1: Well with that discount, it does feel like I'm cheating.

950
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:13,200
Speaker 1: I'm cheating, cheating the system and getting your cheat sheets.

951
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:16,960
Speaker 1: That standing Shock Fantasy. Thanks for listening, everybody. We'll be

952
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:19,680
Speaker 1: back next week to break down the NFC North, our

953
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:23,239
Speaker 1: final of the divisional breakdowns, and we'll talk to you then.

954
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:27,719
Speaker 1: Bye bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I

955
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 1: heart Radio. For more podcasts from my heart Radio, visit

956
00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:33,640
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957
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:35,040
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