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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The crown

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Speaker 1: is yours. The Divisional Round gets kicked off on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: We have all the info that you need to get

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Speaker 1: set for all of it. We'll get you some bets

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Speaker 1: in pocket by the end of the show as well.

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Speaker 1: I am Brandon Kravitz, joined by the Favorites Crew, the

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky, and the Queen of

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Speaker 1: the Pod, Miss Kendra Middleton. As I get so choked

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Speaker 1: up because the season is coming to an end. On

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Speaker 1: today's episode, We've got action or distraction Stucky's random question

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Speaker 1: of the week. Don't forget to pull one of those out.

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Speaker 1: Two Kings and a Queen parlay courtesy of Draft Kings

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Speaker 1: and a Sling TV look ahead to Texans Patriots. But first,

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Speaker 1: our stat of the day, straight from the primer. Since

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Speaker 1: two thousand and three, home to teams in the Divisional

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Speaker 1: Round coming off of a bye are thirty three, forty

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Speaker 1: four and one against the spread. That's forty three percent,

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Speaker 1: including three and seven ats. Since twenty twenty, that would

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Speaker 1: of course be Seattle and Denver if you were following

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Speaker 1: this trend, those were teams or those art teams that

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Speaker 1: you would want to fade as a favorite of seven

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Speaker 1: or more points off of a bye. Those teams are seventeen,

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Speaker 1: twenty six and one. That's forty percent ats. That's just

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Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks. If you wanted to lean into that trend,

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Speaker 1: clearly you'd be on the forty nine ers in the Bills.

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Speaker 1: But Kendra, why do you think the buye has been

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Speaker 1: so disruptive? I want to answers from both of you

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Speaker 1: on this, any theories as to why. And this works

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Speaker 1: by the way, in college football as well. These teams

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Speaker 1: outside of Indiana that have been getting the buy the

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Speaker 1: last two years have been disrupted by it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, sitting on your couch I think does a lot

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Speaker 2: for people, But I think it's more so when you

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Speaker 2: think about something for so long, you almost overanalyze it

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Speaker 2: and you almost over game plan. So I think it's

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Speaker 2: the combination, which is the easy answer to say, of

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Speaker 2: just sitting on your couch, getting too comfy, not being

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Speaker 2: out there in your routine in the season grind, and

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Speaker 2: just starting to overplan instead of going out there and

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Speaker 2: playing the game that you've played all season. I think

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Speaker 2: people have way too much time to overthink it stuck you.

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Speaker 3: I mean, now we might be over like speaking overthink,

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Speaker 3: we might just be overthinking this. So might just be random.

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Speaker 1: I think that it's perhaps overpriced into.

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Speaker 3: That's the other thing is that people might you might

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Speaker 3: overvalue the bye byes aren't as valuable anyway. I mean

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Speaker 3: you google back home. Teams coming off of a bye

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Speaker 3: over the last like eight years in the regular season

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Speaker 3: have not performed well either. Buys aren't you don't you

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Speaker 3: don't have this, They don't. They aren't treated the same

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Speaker 3: as before. Also, teams are better at traveling, like they're

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Speaker 3: smarter about a lot of things. But like if I

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Speaker 3: if I had a game last week and writing a

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Speaker 3: short week this week, like twenty years ago, that would

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Speaker 3: have been like a much bigger deal than it is now.

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Speaker 3: So there's a lot of noise in a sample size

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Speaker 3: that small. But there also could be a little bit

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Speaker 3: of the buy is a bit overvalued in the market

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Speaker 3: for these one seeds because just logically you think about

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Speaker 3: it and you would say, Okay, I got extra time

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Speaker 3: to prepare a game plan. It shouldn't be a detriment.

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Speaker 3: But maybe there's more distractions. I happen to think it's

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Speaker 3: just a lot of noise and small sample size. But

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Speaker 3: I think that your explanation probably is the most sound,

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Speaker 3: is that at times it probably can be a bit overvalued.

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Speaker 1: Evan, you're the one that pieced this stat together. Do

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Speaker 1: you have any working theories on that? Is it just

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Speaker 1: price over correction? Is it travel accommodations. We've seen this also,

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Speaker 1: home team in all sports not as profitable as they

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Speaker 1: were in the past, and I think a lot of

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Speaker 1: that perhaps has to do with environment. So I don't

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Speaker 1: know if those are there's a correlation there. But you're

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Speaker 1: the one that slapped it together. Do you have any

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Speaker 1: working theories on this?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's all them. I think travel much

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Speaker 4: easier lately. I think sitting on your couch versus playing

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Speaker 4: is usually a disadvantage unless you're a team that absolutely

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Speaker 4: needs it, like when we had that Seattle San Francisco game.

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Speaker 4: I think San Francisco needed a bye. I think they

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Speaker 4: could have used a buy to get people healthier. Seattle

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Speaker 4: probably didn't need it as much, so I would look

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Speaker 4: at it as a bit of a disadvantage based on

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Speaker 4: the team. Sucky's also right, since twenty nineteen teams off

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Speaker 4: a buy versus teams on normal rests seventy one, ninety

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Speaker 4: two and two. So I mean that's like forty three

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Speaker 4: percent as well, but a little noisy. But also I

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Speaker 4: think the market's also just overvaluing the team by a

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Speaker 4: few points.

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Speaker 1: Probably point and a half, I would think is the

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Speaker 1: natural correction for a team that has rest. Stucky, do

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Speaker 1: you have a personal price that you bacon off of

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Speaker 1: that when you're putting your numbers together for one off

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Speaker 1: of a buy for a team that has a bye

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Speaker 1: week advantage?

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Speaker 3: It depends on the specific situation, but in general, about

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Speaker 3: a half.

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Speaker 1: Point Kendre, how much do you think, just off the

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Speaker 1: top of your head, what do you think that would

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Speaker 1: be worth if you had to add it to the

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Speaker 1: point spread? Does that sound right?

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Speaker 5: I don't see.

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Speaker 2: Part of me wants to agree that it's probably like a.

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Speaker 5: Point and a half.

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Speaker 2: But the thing is is that I if you know

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Speaker 2: this stat with history and everything like that, maybe it

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Speaker 2: is actually overvalued. In Stucky's right, it's at half a point.

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Speaker 1: And I think that that's the thing that for anybody

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Speaker 1: that's trying to piece this stuff together is pricing it properly.

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Speaker 1: I think coaching matters I would love to see that

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Speaker 1: broken down by which team got the teams that got

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Speaker 1: the buy, how good are their coaches and taking advantage

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Speaker 1: of those opportunities veteran teams versus young teams. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think you'd have to get pretty granular in order

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Speaker 1: to answer that properly, But that is something that could

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Speaker 1: reappear on today's episodes. We'll get back to that in

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Speaker 1: the moment.

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Speaker 3: It's a good point because it is that is just

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Speaker 3: a general, my general, high level plug in. But like

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Speaker 3: there's depending on the team, the coach, the when, when

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Speaker 3: in the season, like what what is the other team's

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Speaker 3: situation as well, So there's a lot of other factors

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Speaker 3: that can alter that. Now, it's not gonna be a

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Speaker 3: huge difference, but there's definitely more nuance than just a

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Speaker 3: blanket adjustment. But if that's around where I'm at in

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Speaker 3: general for a.

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Speaker 1: Buye back to football in a moment. Time to delve

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Speaker 1: into the weird, the bizarre, the random. I kick it

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Speaker 1: over to you Stuckey for your random question of the week. Hey,

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Speaker 1: this is a dumb question. Let me ask you a

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Speaker 1: personal question kind of question. Is that is question?

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Speaker 3: All right? What is the most embarrassing thing that has

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Speaker 3: ever happened to your head. So it could be your face,

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Speaker 3: could be your hair. Like I'm mainly thinking like a haircut,

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Speaker 3: but Branon, I don't know if you've if you've had

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Speaker 3: haircuts before.

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Speaker 1: I used to hair. I used to have hair. This

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Speaker 1: is a drunken COVID decision to shave my head.

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Speaker 3: So yes, So I'll start with mine. I when I

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Speaker 3: was I was since sixth, sixth, fifth or sixth grade,

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Speaker 3: and I wanted to get my hair cut and for

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Speaker 3: something like at school the next day. But like we on,

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Speaker 3: my hairdresser couldn't get an appointment last second. My mom

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Speaker 3: must have called or something. So my dad, who had

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Speaker 3: too many cocktails, was like, I'll do it, and my

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Speaker 3: mom was like no, no, no, you're not doing this,

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Speaker 3: and my dad was like, I can do it. So

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Speaker 3: when to my laundry clippers and he tried to cut

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Speaker 3: my hair, but it was a disaster. There was like

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Speaker 3: enormous chunks that were taken out multiple times, and my

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Speaker 3: mom was like you came in and saw this and

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Speaker 3: like was like you have to stop this, and so

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Speaker 3: like we no one tried to fix it and we

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Speaker 3: had to go to I got to go to the

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Speaker 3: hairdresser the next day, but I had to go into

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Speaker 3: school and I wanted my hair to be nice for

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Speaker 3: this thing. I was like given a presentation or something.

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Speaker 3: So I went in and uh, I was wearing a

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Speaker 3: I just wore a hoodie up and then like tied it,

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Speaker 3: and then a teacher in a class like made me

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Speaker 3: take it down and everyone started laughing. It was kind

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Speaker 3: of like a sitcom. Uh, And I was like so

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Speaker 3: and but looking back, it was so funny. But my

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Speaker 3: dad trying to cut my hair and I had these

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Speaker 3: I mean I'm talking like he went like and then

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Speaker 3: like like three or four times big chunks, and I

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Speaker 3: just had these and then I had to shape my

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Speaker 3: head when I went to the hairdresser later that day,

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Speaker 3: but super embarrassing. Tried to hide it for the day,

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Speaker 3: couldn't get away with it.

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Speaker 1: There is no preparing for these questions, by the way, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you just never know what direction the weirdest or the

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Speaker 1: most embarrassing thing to happen to your head. Not something

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Speaker 1: I've thought of in a very long time. Mine is

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Speaker 1: not haircut related. I was in high school. I was

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Speaker 1: either a freshman or sophomore, but we had lockers that

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Speaker 1: were you had one big locker and then another was

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Speaker 1: stacked on top of it, so you had two per

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Speaker 1: row and I was bending down. Mine was on the bottom.

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Speaker 1: I went to go stand up. The one above me

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Speaker 1: was open. And so we're talking about these a metal

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Speaker 1: high school locker that probably had rust and all sorts

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Speaker 1: of rabies in it and sliced my head. But it

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Speaker 1: hurt like I felt like I got my bell rung.

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Speaker 1: But I just thought that that was it. And I'm standing,

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Speaker 1: I'm talking to my friends and all of them look

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Speaker 1: at me like they have witnessed a murder. My face

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Speaker 1: just starts bleeding profusely and they go, dude, you're bleeding.

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Speaker 1: And I had to go to the uh medical office.

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Speaker 1: My face is covered in blood. I still have a

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Speaker 1: little scar on the top of my head, and I

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Speaker 1: see it now that I shaved my head. But that

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Speaker 1: was walking through high school with a bloody face because

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Speaker 1: I hit my head on a locker unprovoked. That probably

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Speaker 1: qualifies for me. Kendra, what about you, I'm I've ketched

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Speaker 1: up here.

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Speaker 3: You have something, girl, This is like an easier question

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Speaker 3: for for sure.

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Speaker 2: I'm about to take you both to the cleaners.

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Speaker 5: I love you both.

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Speaker 2: I was born without the upper left side of my jaw,

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Speaker 2: and so when I was ten, I didn't have I

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Speaker 2: still have baby teeth, and I don't have adult teeth

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Speaker 2: like up here at all. So they had to rip

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Speaker 2: my baby teeth out because we didn't know if they

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Speaker 2: would ever come out, and so until I was old

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Speaker 2: enough for them to do surgery on me, I had

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Speaker 2: to have just a huge gap of no teeth right here.

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Speaker 2: So I had braces with no teeth, just a metal

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Speaker 2: bar across the front half of my mouth. And then

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Speaker 2: I had a flipper that I could take in and

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Speaker 2: out when I was in high school, so I either

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Speaker 2: had no teeth at all or like an infection in

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Speaker 2: the roof of my mouth from wearing my flipper so much.

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Speaker 2: So all of my pictures growing up, all of my

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Speaker 2: middle school everything no.

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Speaker 5: Teeth hold on.

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Speaker 2: I have a picture I took a screenshot from my

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Speaker 2: surgery after I finally had the rods put in my

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Speaker 2: face with the cowbone.

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Speaker 5: This is how swollen I was.

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Speaker 3: Oh my god, So that's what you had to eventually do,

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Speaker 3: is get rods like.

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Speaker 2: I have cowbone holding my jaw together with like a

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Speaker 2: metal rod and then I have implants like put into

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Speaker 2: the cowbone because that's how they held my face together.

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Speaker 5: I have baby teeth that I still could lose one day.

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Speaker 3: Is there any Do you have any negative side effects

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Speaker 3: to that? Or everything's normal?

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Speaker 5: No, everything's super fine.

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Speaker 2: I just might have to have like obviously, my implants

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Speaker 2: were placed at some point because eventually you have to.

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Speaker 2: But other than that, everything's good to go.

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Speaker 5: Modern medicine's crazy.

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Speaker 1: Well that'll keep you.

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Speaker 5: I'm like point one percent cow.

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Speaker 3: That's pretty funny. Well, then moon that EVN does ev'n

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Speaker 3: have anything? I I had a bird fall on my head.

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Speaker 4: I was walking down New York City, so I mean,

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Speaker 4: I guess that kind of counts because like it's hair related,

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Speaker 4: head related, So I'm going to go with that because

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Speaker 4: that's the only thing I can come up with.

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Speaker 1: A bird.

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Speaker 4: No, like a bird flew down and kind of gave

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Speaker 4: me like the old one too.

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Speaker 2: And then yeah, nice, I'm going to send this picture

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Speaker 2: of me to Gifford because I'm going to tweet it

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Speaker 2: out when we put our link out later and tell

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Speaker 2: people to listen for this story.

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Speaker 5: So you're welcome, Gifford.

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Speaker 1: Anyways, and uh, and you avoided my bad cow jokes.

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Speaker 1: So let's move on to action or distraction.

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Speaker 2: This is distracted.

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Speaker 1: I'm not stay I want it on the action. One

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Speaker 1: quick non playoff related item. John Harball right now finalizing

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Speaker 1: a deal with the New York Giants to become their

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Speaker 1: new head coach, Stucky action or distraction on the g

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Speaker 1: Men being a team that you plan to take seriously

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Speaker 1: next season?

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Speaker 3: Uh, Like, what do you mean by seriously? That's I

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Speaker 3: think it was a good hire. I think it's it's

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Speaker 3: going to depend on the rest of his staff, some

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Speaker 3: of the moves that they make in the offseason to Giants,

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Speaker 3: and then it's it's basically, do they have the quarterback?

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Speaker 3: Is dark the guy? If you believe in that, then

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Speaker 3: you're going to potentially be interested in the Giants. I

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Speaker 3: think Harball is a good higher for a team like

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Speaker 3: the Giants in the state that they're in right now,

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Speaker 3: and I think that will probably hire smart coordinators. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I could I could see myself potentially looking into like

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Speaker 3: they're over, but it's gonna depend on some of their

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Speaker 3: other moves, which it hasn't been the best organization in

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Speaker 3: terms of their offseason moves. Maybe Harball will help in

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Speaker 3: that aspect. But I do think it was the ideal

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Speaker 3: higher for the Giants. Like there's there's teams that are

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Speaker 3: in different phases of where they're at, Like I don't

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Speaker 3: think the Giants are in a space where they could

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Speaker 3: win the Super Bowl next year or the year after.

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Speaker 3: So I think Harball is a good hire to try

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Speaker 3: to stabilize that organization and get things headed in the

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Speaker 3: right direction, like I don't think they needed. But he

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Speaker 3: has to get coordinators matter so much, right, Like he's

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Speaker 3: not Liam Cohen, Right, you hire Liam Cohen and then

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Speaker 3: you're going to get this. I mean John Harball' is

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Speaker 3: his background is you know, special teams, right, That's that's

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Speaker 3: was his specialty before became a head coach. So I'll

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Speaker 3: say semi interested, but I need to see the rest

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Speaker 3: of his staff in the offseason moves.

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Speaker 1: But I do like the hire taking their season over

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Speaker 1: would be taking them seriously. So appreciate the way you

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Speaker 1: answered that, Kendrick. What about you on Harball to the Giants.

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Speaker 2: I said even before all this went down that the

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Speaker 2: minute probably their season totals come out, I'm going to

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Speaker 2: be on the over just because they're going to get

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Speaker 2: so much healthier, and we saw how good their defensive

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Speaker 2: line was this season.

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Speaker 5: I think they're young. I think they like each other.

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Speaker 2: I think that they have good chemistry and if they

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Speaker 2: can get you know, some of their draft picks coming

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Speaker 2: up to hit next year. That division is so wild,

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Speaker 2: and it seems like the everybody's regressing. I mean, who

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Speaker 2: knows what we're gonna get with the Cowboys being healthy

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Speaker 2: next season. I don't have a ton of faith in

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Speaker 2: the Commanders. The Eagles are regressing, so I think that

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Speaker 2: it was the right higher for him. I'm gonna be

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Speaker 2: all over them next year because you know, we can

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Speaker 2: make all the jokes we want, but I think it's

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Speaker 2: really true that Jackson, Dart and camp Scatibo are going

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Speaker 2: to have the most electric five year careers ever. And

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Speaker 2: I think that that defense is decent, So I'm gonna be.

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Speaker 5: All over it.

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Speaker 1: Nick Giffen's luck rankings point us in two directions this week.

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Speaker 1: No surprise, the Bears are considered a lucky team. They

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Speaker 1: take on the Rams the under and the Bills Broncos

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Speaker 1: also in the mix as far as a luck under

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Speaker 1: between those two squads. Kendra action or distraction on either

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Speaker 1: of those. I don't know if you want to blow

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Speaker 1: the wad what you have coming up. I try not

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Speaker 1: to look ahead because I like to be surprised when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the two Kings and a Queen Parlay nominations.

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Speaker 1: But do either of those strike your interests? Either fading

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Speaker 1: the Bears or taking the under in a Bills Broncos game.

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Speaker 2: I have gotten in on both of these games. I

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Speaker 2: think we're at a point where how do you really

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Speaker 2: measure luck in a postseason? Like I get that it's

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Speaker 2: something that we talk about every single week on this show,

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Speaker 2: but I don't know if I believe that luck is

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Speaker 2: really as much of a factor in the postseason. I

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Speaker 2: don't know if that's crazy to say.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it is. I think the Bears have

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Speaker 1: got The Bears are just that team that it feels

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Speaker 1: like the rules don't apply to them, and maybe at

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Speaker 1: some point it catches up with them. But they've got

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Speaker 1: a horseshoe stuck so far up their ass it's hard

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Speaker 1: to quantify it. So I'm with you. I think that

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Speaker 1: is easier to gauge in the regular season. Nick Kiffin

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Speaker 1: does an incredible job, and he certainly does a lot

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Speaker 1: more research on this than I do, so I don't

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Speaker 1: want to dismiss it completely, but it does feel like

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Speaker 1: there's always in any data set there's going to be outliers.

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Speaker 1: The Bears feel like the outlier where you land on

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Speaker 1: that stucky Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's just that they're they're the way that

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Speaker 3: they're playing and winning is just unsustainable. And this team

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Speaker 3: easily could have, you know, had set only seven or

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Speaker 3: eight wins and missed the playoffs this year. Now we're

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Speaker 3: talking about every year, you're gonna have a couple of

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Speaker 3: lucky teams, a couple of lucky teams in every sport,

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Speaker 3: and it's just an unsustainable way to live. And that's

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Speaker 3: why we have power ratings, and that's why we you know,

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Speaker 3: look into these teams and in more in depth. And

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Speaker 3: if you look, for example, like most people would have

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Speaker 3: that the Bears are like an average team. So it's

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Speaker 3: just not going down multiple scores in the fourth quarter

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Speaker 3: and needing to come back with under two minutes to

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Speaker 3: go and needing onside kicks and fourth and eights and

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Speaker 3: two point converts and other teams the miss kicks. It's

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Speaker 3: just not a sustainable way to live. Now, does that

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Speaker 3: mean that they can't get it together and not need

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Speaker 3: luck for a couple for you know, it's football two

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Speaker 3: or three games. No, does that mean that they can't

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Speaker 3: get lucky for a couple, you know, three more games. No,

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Speaker 3: they could get even luckier the next three games, but

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Speaker 3: you know, chances are that it probably catches up to them.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I kind of like the Rams, but I

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Speaker 3: approached it in a different way, which I'll get to

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Speaker 3: in our barlay. And I I do like the under

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Speaker 3: the Bills Broncos under I guess I'll talk about that now.

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Speaker 3: I mean, uh, you look at the Bills that you

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Speaker 3: have Josh Allen, who's not who got who's banged up?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 3: He had like three or four things on the injury report.

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Speaker 3: We'll see how healthy he is or can stay during

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Speaker 3: the game against the team that's gonna get a lot

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Speaker 3: of pressure. Kincaid's not healthy, Your receiver room is decimated.

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Speaker 3: You have a bunch of guys who can't get open

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Speaker 3: against man. Broncos played as much man as anybody, and

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Speaker 3: this Bill's offense just did not function at the same

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Speaker 3: level of efficiency against man compared to zone this year.

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Speaker 3: That's not an Allen knock that's hey, our receivers can't

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Speaker 3: get separation. Broncos defense should be as healthy as it's

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Speaker 3: been all year outside of safety. I think that they

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Speaker 3: can give the Bills offense lots of issues. What are

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Speaker 3: the Bills are gonna do here? I think lean into

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Speaker 3: the run game, go with heavier formations. But the Broncos,

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Speaker 3: even against heavier formations have been good. They've been good

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Speaker 3: against quarterback scrambles, the quarterback run game. They match up

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Speaker 3: really well. And then on the other side, it's the

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Speaker 3: Bills who are gonna play. McDermott does a really good

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Speaker 3: job in the playoffs of coming up with game plans

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Speaker 3: that are defensive game plans that are tailored to specific quarterbacks,

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Speaker 3: disguising things very well. But in the end, he's gonna

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Speaker 3: run a lot of too high They're gonna take away

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Speaker 3: explosive plays. That's kind of Nix's game. It's like, inefficient

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Speaker 3: on a down to down basis, hit some explosives, well,

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Speaker 3: the Bills take those away. The Bills also, like I mentioned,

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Speaker 3: play a lot of too highlight of zone been one

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Speaker 3: of the better zone defenses in the league this year.

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Speaker 3: They can't really play man well bow knicks really struggles

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Speaker 3: against zone too high in particular, he's been abysmal and

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Speaker 3: he has the lowest yards per attempt in the league

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Speaker 3: against too high. He just takes those little dinks and dunks.

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Speaker 3: The Bills are going to make them try to work

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Speaker 3: down the field. I think the Broncos are also going

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Speaker 3: to rely on their run game. Clock's going to be

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Speaker 3: running throughout. But ken Bow Nicks, you know, drive the

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Speaker 3: entire field, sustain drives and get into the end zone.

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Speaker 3: Finished drives off with the end zone, with you know

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Speaker 3: having to you know, throw short passes and be accurate.

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Speaker 3: I think it might be tough. So I think both

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Speaker 3: teams are going to play a field position. This is

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Speaker 3: going to be a game where the clock is running

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Speaker 3: and you're gonna have like a lot of let's call it,

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Speaker 3: you know, thirty five forty yard five minute drives that

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Speaker 3: end in punts or long field goals. I just think

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Speaker 3: both defenses match up well. So yeah, I do like

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Speaker 3: the under there. I think it's a good shout out

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Speaker 3: by like the Bills. Only goal in this game should

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Speaker 3: be get to the fourth quarter tight or down three

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Speaker 3: with the ball in Josh Allen's hands, lead like that's it.

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Speaker 3: And that's that's where you have the edge, is that

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Speaker 3: you have Allen versus Nick's late.

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Speaker 2: I'm about to tail you literally live because I was

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Speaker 2: so close to getting in on this earlier and you

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Speaker 2: just convinced me.

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Speaker 5: So I'm literally doing this live.

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Speaker 3: Beautiful.

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Speaker 1: Also for historical context, these two teams have played each

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Speaker 1: other twice in the history of the postseason, and the

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Speaker 1: under has hit both times. Last year I know for

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Speaker 1: certain because the total was around forty eight forty nine.

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Speaker 1: It was a thirty eight point game blowout by Buffalo

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Speaker 1: thirty one to seven. The other one go back to

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Speaker 1: nineteen ninety two. This is an NFL film's dream matchup

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Speaker 1: Jim Kelly's Buffalo Bills against John Elway's Denver Broncos, two

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Speaker 1: of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, ten to seven

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Speaker 1: final score. Buffalo wins, by the way.

437
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:09,160
Speaker 3: So you also could get green Law back. You don't

438
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 3: remember the Bills ran all over the Broncos last year,

439
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 3: but the Broncos linebacker room was in shambles. Could get

440
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 3: green Law back, which will help, and Oliver could be

441
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 3: back for the Bills. That could be a big boost

442
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:23,439
Speaker 3: to the defensive line. So there there's a lot of

443
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:27,439
Speaker 3: things worth watching that are that could potentially help us

444
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 3: under in both defenses. Also, Brandon cooks under two and

445
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 3: a half receptions. He cannot get open against man at

446
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 3: his advanced age anymore.

447
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 5: Last one age.

448
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 1: Actually, yeah, it's.

449
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 3: Funny what I call athletes old, like they're too old,

450
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 3: but they're still way younger than me.

451
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 1: It's a different timeline.

452
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, we were bodies are older than ours.

453
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 1: Yes, well, last one. Before we move on, we'll get

454
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:00,680
Speaker 1: to our two kings in a queen parlor action or

455
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 1: distraction Kendred's witch not being a ball noer kendrap.

456
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,640
Speaker 2: Okay, So I do have tea about this. She never

457
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 2: responded to my DM. I paid her and she literally

458
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 2: did not reply to me. So I guess I got scammed,

459
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 2: and so did the Jags.

460
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 4: So you think do you think she'd watched the Jaguars game,

461
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 4: saw it and was like, oh, I'm just guying closing DMS.

462
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 5: I gonna go.

463
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 2: With no, because I think any girl who is building

464
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 2: altars for random strangers requests online is probably not into

465
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 2: our Lord and Savior the NFL.

466
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,199
Speaker 3: I'm seeing this like this is getting popular, like I

467
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 3: saw multiple I don't know if this is all my algorithms.

468
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 3: We were talking about it, but I saw multiple like

469
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:55,880
Speaker 3: tweets about people saying like I'm paying witches for this,

470
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 3: or that I might get I mean, this seems like

471
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 3: easy money, and you could just play both sides too.

472
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 3: This is like the new taut the new Taut game

473
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,159
Speaker 3: back in the nineties, like the phone touts in the

474
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 3: two thousands, you would just give out both sides and

475
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 3: then you know, you have a thousand people call you.

476
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:17,919
Speaker 3: You've out one side to five hundred, one side to

477
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 3: the other five hundred, and then wherever side wins, you

478
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:22,919
Speaker 3: call back those five hundred that you gave winners to

479
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 3: and then two fifty.

480
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:25,680
Speaker 4: Wait, so stucky you think this is the new age

481
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 4: boiler room.

482
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,120
Speaker 3: It's a new age, right, I'm a witch. And then

483
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 3: you just you're gonna go fifty to fifty and then

484
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 3: you go back to that person says, see see what

485
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 3: I did?

486
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 5: Okay.

487
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 2: So the question is, though, do I caron out and

488
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 2: dispute the charge.

489
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 1: I don't think I feel like this. I feel like

490
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 1: this one's on you.

491
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 5: Yeah.

492
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,679
Speaker 1: So she never responded to anything, or she just hasn't

493
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: responded since the Jags lost.

494
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:56,440
Speaker 5: No, she didn't respond to anything.

495
00:25:56,520 --> 00:26:00,680
Speaker 2: So like the instructions were to message her, like in

496
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 2: the payment of like what you wanted your spell to be,

497
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 2: which is what I read on the on our show

498
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 2: last week, and she just didn't say anything to me.

499
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,879
Speaker 2: She's supposed to send a picture of like the altar

500
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 2: she builds for you, and she didn't.

501
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 1: Yeah.

502
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 3: I mean maybe she was the one who worked with

503
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 3: God McDermott to not score, to score on first down

504
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 3: to get the Jags the best chance but through the interception.

505
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 5: But yeah, yeah, she didn't send me my altar.

506
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go Etsy. Witches aren't canceled, but this

507
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 2: particular edsy witch canceled.

508
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 3: Yeah wait, how did you find this one? Did you

509
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 3: just search?

510
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,919
Speaker 2: Okay, so I found the most expensive option that was

511
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 2: not related to relationships. So pretty much all of them

512
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 2: were like how do I get my boyfriend to start

513
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 2: buying me flowers? And it was like pay me five

514
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,199
Speaker 2: dollars and I'll put a spell on him. And then

515
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:54,640
Speaker 2: I it was the only one that I could find

516
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,200
Speaker 2: that was like not like a dollar and like seemed

517
00:26:57,240 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 2: legit and had a bunch of reviews, so I paid

518
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:04,160
Speaker 2: extra read reviews, did research and didn't pick a love

519
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 2: spell lady, and I still got screwed over and.

520
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 1: It was twelve dollars, I believe. Yeah, so you're you're

521
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 1: just adding too much vig to the Jags at that

522
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 1: point when when you're spending more than ten.

523
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 2: Well you know what desper times call for desperate measure. Okay,

524
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 2: you wouldn't get it. You're not part of the Sad

525
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 2: Cat fan and you turned on them, so like you're

526
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 2: just a fair weather fan.

527
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,120
Speaker 4: I mean, it didn't work for the Panthers or the Jaguars,

528
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:30,479
Speaker 4: so it was like a tough WEEKND.

529
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 5: Maybe she cursed the sad Cats.

530
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 2: Maybe she like has dyslexia and when I said Buffalo Bills,

531
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:38,360
Speaker 2: she read curse cats.

532
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 1: Well, listen, the Sad Cats. The Panthers were the only

533
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 1: cat that covered last week, so perhaps perhaps she did

534
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,919
Speaker 1: her witchery on the wrong team. Still to come, two

535
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,880
Speaker 1: Kings and a Queen get nominated in our weekly parlay.

536
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 1: But first a word from the first Lady, the master

537
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:56,640
Speaker 1: of Witchery, Kendra Middleton.

538
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,439
Speaker 2: The Favorites podcast is sponsored by Drafting Sports Book and

539
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,360
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540
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541
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542
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Speaker 5: Dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins.

543
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544
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545
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546
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547
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548
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:23,000
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549
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550
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 2: the crown is yours.

551
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 1: We're about to give out some picks Texans Pats, but

552
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 1: first big trend on Instagram right now is to put

553
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 1: up pictures of yourself. In twenty sixteen, and it had

554
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 1: me wondering what was the NFL betting year like? In

555
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. Spreads were on the mark, Favorites went one,

556
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 1: twenty six, one, twenty four and one, ats almost dead

557
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 1: even fifty to fifty. The Patriots were thirteen and three

558
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 1: against the spread, best mark in the NFL. They went

559
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 1: on to win the Super Bowl, the one where they

560
00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 1: famously trailed twenty eight to three. The Browns, naturally, were

561
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 1: the NFL's worst at four and twelve. Ats Kendra Stucky,

562
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 1: what were your lives like? Have you looked back? I

563
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 1: think if I saw on Instagram it was a very

564
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 1: blonde Kendra Middleton back in twenty sixteen.

565
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, I was in my gnarious era. I ended my

566
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 5: internship at.

567
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 2: The game in San Francisco and started my freshman year

568
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 2: at Auburn. So I was a freshman in college in

569
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen.

570
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 5: I was a little baby gal.

571
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 1: Well you Stucky, what were you doing in twenty sixteen?

572
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 3: Uh? Thing, shit, I'm doing today? Well a little like different.

573
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 3: I mean I'm just betting every.

574
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 5: Day now you have a kid.

575
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 3: Yeah. True, I was living in This was a year before.

576
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 3: I mean, this is like the last year of my

577
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 3: old life. I was living in Philly. I was working

578
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 3: in finance, because twenty seventeen is when I was. I

579
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 3: gotta look back on the exact I can look now

580
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 3: the exact time I started having conversations about potentially leaving

581
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 3: my job to start to help start action and shout

582
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 3: out my guy Brian Mead. Let's see, his first DM

583
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 3: to me was in I think it was in twenty sixteen,

584
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 3: but I could be wrong. No, it was early, early

585
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 3: twenties twenty seventeen. So yeah, I mean this I was.

586
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 3: I didn't I'd really it was plateaued in my job.

587
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 3: I'd just spent all my time betting. I didn't have

588
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 3: to do any content. I didn't do any writing. I

589
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 3: mean I was posting. I would just tweet my picks,

590
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 3: just one tweet. I was betting more sports. I was

591
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 3: betting tennis. The market was easier to beat, and a

592
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 3: lot of other sports markets just are going to get

593
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 3: more efficient with each passing year. But yeah, I was

594
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 3: in Philly. I was dating my now wife long distance,

595
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 3: and little did I know the next year I would

596
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 3: be leaving my career helping start Action, would meet Evan

597
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 3: not too long after that, and then we'd move to Lexington, Kentucky,

598
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:24,160
Speaker 3: and then now have a kid here in Lexning, Kentucky.

599
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, that was like the last year of my

600
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 3: old old life. But still was just betting every day.

601
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 3: I'm obsessed with sports and betting.

602
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 1: I think the trend right now is that everything was

603
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 1: better in twenty sixteen, but the perfect.

604
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 5: Amount of technology.

605
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 2: That's why it was the perfect amount of technology.

606
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 1: I don't know, it sounds like we're all doing better,

607
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 1: right now than we were in twenty sixteen.

608
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 5: And I think so I peaked.

609
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 2: I peaked in twenty sixteen and the chain smokers popped off,

610
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 2: so I gotta say, take me back.

611
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 3: I was a chain smoker then too.

612
00:31:56,120 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: Woh, Evan, what about you? What were you doing in

613
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. I can't remember.

614
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 4: I was probably somewhere between the I worked for the NBA,

615
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 4: I worked for ESPN, so I can't remember.

616
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 3: I was somewhere.

617
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 4: I think in between those two gigs, and I was

618
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 4: like right before Action got formed. So shout out Chad Melman.

619
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 4: But that was part of those early conversations. But yeah,

620
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 4: I think that was about right. I think living in

621
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 4: New York or in New Jersey at the time and Hoboken,

622
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 4: depending on what the gig was.

623
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 1: Shout out the Chad original Daddy of the Favorites podcast.

624
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 1: I went back and looked on my Facebook memories to

625
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 1: see if I could come up with anything. I met

626
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: Eric Dickerson ten years ago today, famous NFL running back.

627
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:45,719
Speaker 1: Of course, he was at a golf tournament that I

628
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 1: was at and I got engaged. So those were the

629
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 1: two only sixteen memories.

630
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 2: You guys are living very different lives to me.

631
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 1: But enough of the nostalgia, what about the pre what

632
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 1: about the future? And if you're into the present or

633
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 1: the future of accessing live sports, it's Sling TV. They

634
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 1: offer flexible package options one, three, and seven day passes

635
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 1: for access to thirty plus live channels, which includes ESPN

636
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 1: and TNT. So you're not only covered for Texans Patriots

637
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 1: on Sunday, but also the National Championship between Indiana and

638
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 1: Miami on Monday. So let's talk about Texans Patriots. Stuckey,

639
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 1: what are you looking at for this slober knocker?

640
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 3: Nothing? Really don't. I don't know what to make this.

641
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 3: This game's very difficult for me. I do like Schultz overs.

642
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 3: I think that that's where the Texans have to attack

643
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 3: the Patriots, and I think the Schultz could have a

644
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 3: big day for the Texans. I just don't know how

645
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 3: to I don't have a good feel for the Patriots

646
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 3: and how to properly rate them because their body of work,

647
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 3: like my eye test says all ye that may has

648
00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:02,760
Speaker 3: no weaknesses is a lead. I think that's the case.

649
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 3: But he didn't face any top tier defenses until last week,

650
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 3: and the whole operation didn't look great, and especially the

651
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 3: offensive line, so I worry about that against the Texans

652
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:17,879
Speaker 3: defensive line and their ability to get pressure, and then

653
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 3: I do I still have questions about the Patriots defense.

654
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:23,240
Speaker 3: I know that they I like what they do schematically,

655
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 3: but they did they didn't face the competent quarterback all

656
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 3: year outside of Josh Allen, who they split with the

657
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 3: one of the easiest schedules over the past thirty years.

658
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 3: But they finally get Herbert last week and they completely

659
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 3: shut him down. But Herbert looked like he also was

660
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 3: missing open throws and looked flustered, So I don't even

661
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 3: know how much to take from that, So I'm just

662
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 3: super confused. I it might be they also the Patriots

663
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 3: defense might be able to just employ the same game

664
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 3: plan that they did it last week, lots of blitz

665
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,759
Speaker 3: packages against the bad offensive line and shrouded who really

666
00:34:54,800 --> 00:35:00,399
Speaker 3: does struggle under pressure and against the blitz. So yeah,

667
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 3: I won't have anything on the side or total on

668
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 3: this one. I just don't have a great feel for

669
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,720
Speaker 3: the Patriots was dead or wrong on the Chargers last week,

670
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:15,280
Speaker 3: and I'm gonna I'm passing state here side end total.

671
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:18,359
Speaker 1: I am having a really hard time with the side

672
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 1: on this one. But I did make a bet on

673
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 1: this game. I like the Patriots team total under twenty

674
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 1: one and a half the Texans allowing seventeen per The

675
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 1: Patriots have hit their team total over in five of

676
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:32,839
Speaker 1: the last six, so I think that's helping to keep

677
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 1: this number nice and plump. The Chargers defense was the

678
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 1: best defense they've faced since dating back to pre Halloween,

679
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:43,879
Speaker 1: and what did they produce? Sixteen points, zero for three

680
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:46,439
Speaker 1: in the red zone, four of eleven on third down

681
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 1: heading into last week Pittsburgh, where they allowed just six points.

682
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 1: The Texans allow four points per game fewer on the

683
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 1: road than they do at home, so that number has

684
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 1: only gotten better fifteen her on the road this season.

685
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 1: I think this is gonna be a low scoring game.

686
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 1: The thing I trust the most in this game is

687
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 1: the Texans defense, so I'm gonna bet on that. Kendra,

688
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 1: what about you?

689
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 2: You guys are crazy. I think Saddan is clairvoyant. I

690
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 2: think the Patriots are going to take belt to ass

691
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,439
Speaker 2: I think Christian Gonzalez is gonna play. I think Tong

692
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:24,719
Speaker 2: is gonna play. The fact that Nico Collins is out

693
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 2: for this game. The injury report for the Texans is

694
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 2: absolutely insane and the Texans offense is just absolutely anemic.

695
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 2: And if you take Nico Collins out of that and

696
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 2: you still keep Christian Gonzalez in this game, I just

697
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,320
Speaker 2: I don't know where the Texans are going to score points.

698
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 2: And that's what that's what you have to do to

699
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 2: win a football game. Their injury report is disgusting. Saddan

700
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 2: is clairvoyant.

701
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: Yes, uber driver. Saddan is the only one so far

702
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:58,360
Speaker 1: that has had a strong take on the side. Evan,

703
00:36:58,640 --> 00:36:59,879
Speaker 1: what about you? Where do you land?

704
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 4: Is Saddan mentioned because we haven't mentioned it at all,

705
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 4: the word Nico Collins, because I feel like if he's

706
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 4: not playing, which it looks like he's not, it's definitely

707
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:10,720
Speaker 4: an impact on the offense. I mean, this isn't Pittsburgh's defense.

708
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 4: New England's defense much better. I think that's a large factor.

709
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 4: I just trying to figure out what they'll look like

710
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 4: because it hasn't been on a large sample size without

711
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 4: him out there and a lot more attention on the

712
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 4: other guys. It's definitely a factor in this one. Then

713
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:24,759
Speaker 4: I'm currently trying to figure out a little bit more.

714
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:28,760
Speaker 3: I will say the other thing, the two other things

715
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 3: worth noting. The Patriots defense was near worse than the

716
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 3: league in the red zone in allowing touchdowns and despite

717
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:43,399
Speaker 3: playing a laughable schedule of opposing quarterbacks. But last week

718
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 3: they get the Chargers. Movable force meets an unstoppable object

719
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 3: thing because the Chargers I think are thirtieth in the end,

720
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:52,839
Speaker 3: they have a really bad red zone offense. Well guess

721
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 3: what we the Patriots ended up winning now right, The

722
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,400
Speaker 3: Chargers got inside of two twice only came out with

723
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:01,800
Speaker 3: three points. The Chargers in Texas, I think the Chargers

724
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 3: are thirtieth and the Texans are like twenty ninth to

725
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:06,839
Speaker 3: thirty first in red zone offense. If the Patriots get

726
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:12,320
Speaker 3: another really poor red zone offense that struggles to finish

727
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:14,319
Speaker 3: off dr eyes, which I think can help them. I

728
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 3: also think Vrabel is a much much better in game

729
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:29,839
Speaker 3: coach and game day coach than Demico Ryans. So when

730
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 3: to be aggressive, you know, going forward on fourth downs,

731
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:37,839
Speaker 3: making better in game like Vabel's done a lot of

732
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 3: very smart He really knows the rules. That's he has

733
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:45,840
Speaker 3: Belichick in him, like the game rules and with the clock,

734
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 3: and then just some nuanced things that he does throughout

735
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:50,359
Speaker 3: a game I think in like a high leverage plub

736
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 3: game that could be lower scoring. That could end up

737
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 3: being the difference with the Patriots as well.

738
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 5: Dome team in the snow as well. I would like

739
00:38:59,320 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 5: to point that out.

740
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 1: I feel like the Texans answered the bell on that though.

741
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 1: I mean, no, snow is a different animal, but still

742
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 1: just being It's not like Pittsburgh was warm last week

743
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 1: and their defense was fine and they've been great on

744
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,919
Speaker 1: the road. I just don't worry.

745
00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 3: I mean, they are kind of like an outdoor team,

746
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 3: like because especially in mcno, nicocollins like, they're gonna have

747
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 3: to win this game. If you'd like the Texans, if

748
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 3: I told you the Texans won this game, and you

749
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,879
Speaker 3: you you you went out too hard and you fell

750
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 3: asleep for the entire weekend, and you woke up and

751
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 3: you called me and I said, the Texans won. The

752
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 3: Texans upset the Patriots. What is the first score that

753
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 3: pops into your head?

754
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 5: Thirteen to ten?

755
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:50,319
Speaker 3: Off of it, thirteen ten is what my score would

756
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 3: have been.

757
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, sounds about right. Thirteen ten to sixteen.

758
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 2: Somebody's scoring ten and Drake may just threw one of

759
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,479
Speaker 2: those tight window passes on a Wan to B game

760
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:02,239
Speaker 2: winning drive and all Shayer runs it back for a

761
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 2: pick six. That's exactly That's the way that you could

762
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 2: convince me that happened is like a fourth quarter final drive,

763
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 2: and he just that that would be my assumption.

764
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 1: So to recap, we've got sa'dan I mean Kendra on

765
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 1: the Patriots money line, Schultz overs for the tight end

766
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 1: of the Houston Texans, and I like the Patriots team

767
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 1: total under twenty one and a half points. Sling tv

768
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 1: is your solution to instant access to live TV starting

769
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 1: as low as four ninety nine. There is not a

770
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 1: better time to acquaint yourself with the one to three

771
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,759
Speaker 1: and seven day passes from Sling TV. Offer applies to

772
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 1: Orange one day pass restrictions apply. It's time for the

773
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 1: reason you all came here today. Our two Kings and

774
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:59,879
Speaker 1: a Queen Parlay get nominated. Right now. We are star

775
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 1: starting to run thin on options. We used to have

776
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 1: slates that were sixteen games deep. No more. We've got

777
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 1: four to choose from here, so curious to see what

778
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:14,399
Speaker 1: direction we go in. We've been so sides heavy as

779
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 1: this podcast is throughout the course of the season, but

780
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 1: a feeling we're gonna need to get creative here. Kendro

781
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:22,840
Speaker 1: will start with you what you got.

782
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna offer you, guys the Broncos money line

783
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 2: or the Bears plus three.

784
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 5: I like the Bronco.

785
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 2: I know that this is going to be kind of

786
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:37,399
Speaker 2: stepping on either someone's toes between the two of you.

787
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 5: But like we said, I get all.

788
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:42,880
Speaker 2: The statistics of teams on a buy whatever, but like

789
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 2: I said, don't overthink it.

790
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,040
Speaker 5: That's kind of what I'm where I'm at here.

791
00:41:47,080 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 2: The Bills are so injured and Sean Payton has had

792
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:53,280
Speaker 2: the time to provide Bonix the A plus game plan,

793
00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 2: and I think that that is going to be the

794
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:57,800
Speaker 2: difference maker here is that Josh Allen and that entire

795
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:00,799
Speaker 2: team is so injured. I don't know who he's going

796
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 2: to be throwing the ball to this week, and it's

797
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:04,359
Speaker 2: basically just going to have to be fuck it. Josh

798
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:07,279
Speaker 2: Allen is our running back now, and I just don't

799
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:10,719
Speaker 2: know how you win a game in Denver in that situation.

800
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 5: And then the Bears.

801
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 2: I cannot believe how loud that stadium was, the fact

802
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:18,279
Speaker 2: it's going to be so cold, the fact that the

803
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 2: Rams have been on the road constantly all the time.

804
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:24,760
Speaker 2: I just don't think that I like both home teams.

805
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:26,279
Speaker 2: I hate to say it. I know that we like

806
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 2: to look for dogs and value and all that stuff.

807
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 2: But the Bears, you're getting points with them, whatever, But

808
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 2: I don't know how you don't discredit the guys going

809
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 2: on the road this week. I just I get the

810
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 2: Bills kick the Jags ass last week.

811
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:39,359
Speaker 5: But this is where I'm at.

812
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:42,760
Speaker 1: I as an easy vote for me because I'm heavy

813
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:44,799
Speaker 1: on the Buffalo Bills this week. They're going to be

814
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 1: one of my nominees here, so I'm going to discard

815
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 1: the Broncos the Bears Rams. I haven't gotten there on

816
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:57,759
Speaker 1: a side. But there's the greatest vibe of all of

817
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 1: these games that we watched in the Wildcard round was

818
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:04,840
Speaker 1: that Chicago home stadium at Soldier Field that might be

819
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 1: its own entity in all of this. And Matt Stafford

820
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 1: coldest weather game for him. I think the Rams are

821
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:17,399
Speaker 1: probably the right side, but there's just something that makes

822
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 1: me want to bet Chicago.

823
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:22,720
Speaker 2: So correction from production three and a half even better.

824
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 1: I will take plus three and a half on Chicago

825
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 1: as my vote.

826
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:28,880
Speaker 3: I mean, you mentioned that home field and crazy vantage

827
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 3: they I mean they were. They put down three touchdowns

828
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 3: in the first half to the Packers. So no, I

829
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 3: can't bet the Bears here. I like the Rams. I'll

830
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 3: get to that in a sex So I technically like

831
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:49,320
Speaker 3: the Broncos, but I won't bet them because it's Josh

832
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 3: Allen versus bow Knicks and it might just be that

833
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 3: simple this week. So I'm going to vote for By

834
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 3: the way, have you seen this? It's so funny when

835
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 3: you have these big NFL weeks and then you'll have

836
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 3: like one stat that goes viral and everyone like talks

837
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:13,000
Speaker 3: about it, like the Stafford is one and nine in

838
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 3: freezing cold weather. I don't know who started that. First

839
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,840
Speaker 3: of all, it's so it's the most incorrect stat. I

840
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 3: don't even know, Ivan, I don't even know if this

841
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 3: is in your primer. I haven't got a round of

842
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 3: reading it yet this week. But like Stafford, I think

843
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 3: is like four and four in freezing cold games, or

844
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:31,080
Speaker 3: like four and five and he's starting for like three

845
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:33,399
Speaker 3: hundred multiple times. But have you seen that that went

846
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:35,439
Speaker 3: around that, like Stafford is one and nine in cold

847
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 3: weather games?

848
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 5: I did see this, right?

849
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:40,239
Speaker 3: What's completely wrong? Right, Evan? Would you back me up

850
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 3: on that.

851
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:43,800
Speaker 4: They're talking just rain and snow, which is I guess

852
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:46,800
Speaker 4: very specific. I believe with that stat, but it doesn't

853
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:48,520
Speaker 4: feel right to me. I mean, the things that I've

854
00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 4: looked at, he started five games and under thirty degrees,

855
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,840
Speaker 4: He's two and three. I mean, this would be his

856
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:58,400
Speaker 4: coldest game he's ever started in his career. And assuming

857
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 4: he you know, Georgia and that whole deal, it's probably

858
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 4: college end the Pros. But I mean, I guess the

859
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:06,920
Speaker 4: more interesting kleeb Too played at US.

860
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:10,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's keep in mind to I would think a

861
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 1: lot of the cold games that Stafford played in were

862
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 1: when he was in the NFC North. The Vikings were great.

863
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:22,359
Speaker 1: The Packers were great then, so the Vikings don't.

864
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:25,399
Speaker 3: I think it's the biggest thing that I'm worried about

865
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 3: there is the how bad the wind is going to be.

866
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 3: But I I do think the Rams will be able

867
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:38,000
Speaker 3: to do whatever they want on offense, and so I'm

868
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 3: gonna vote for whet of those two choices. I don't

869
00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:45,799
Speaker 3: like either, but you can with the Brandon picks this week.

870
00:45:45,840 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 3: But I'm gonna go with the Broncos. So I guess

871
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 3: I'm making Evan, uh lead us to water here.

872
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 1: Don't do it. Evan, don't do it. I can't. I

873
00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 1: cannot log. I cannot log this. If he if he

874
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:02,919
Speaker 1: votes for the Broncos, I can't do it.

875
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:06,560
Speaker 4: It's a tough one because I kind of like, I

876
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 4: kind of like.

877
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:08,759
Speaker 3: Both of them.

878
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:11,280
Speaker 1: I would like Chicago a little bit higher.

879
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:14,759
Speaker 3: I would like Chicago a little bit higher. I'm on

880
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:15,240
Speaker 3: the fence.

881
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 4: This is a really tough one, especially this time of

882
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 4: year when you get to four games, only eight sides

883
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 4: and totals difficult to pick between them.

884
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 3: Probably I crap.

885
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 2: On a stick says this to every single he doesn't

886
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:33,319
Speaker 2: do us every single week, you do it, No shame.

887
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 4: I say, let let's let's let's do this, let's go,

888
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 4: let's go Chicago. But I want to go. I want

889
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:43,719
Speaker 4: to buy a higher like it was four four and

890
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:47,959
Speaker 4: a half. I want those numbers. I feel like, even

891
00:46:48,000 --> 00:46:51,520
Speaker 4: if the Rams go up double digits, getting the four

892
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 4: to four and a half will be valuable in terms

893
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 4: of some sort of chaotic comeback. So that'll be the

894
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 4: only way I would advise on chickicgo.

895
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:05,200
Speaker 1: We can, We'll buy yep, yep, all right.

896
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:10,840
Speaker 5: I rabbits about that blow a gasket because.

897
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 3: I want to bet.

898
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:13,160
Speaker 4: I want to I want to bet the Broncos. I

899
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 4: want to bet the Broncos. I want to bet against Josh.

900
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 4: I want to do the whole thing, because yeah, I

901
00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 4: don't want to bet on Bonnicks like this is. You know,

902
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:22,000
Speaker 4: he's not the guy I wanted in this spot when

903
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 4: I was going to bet against the walking dead Buffalo Bills.

904
00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 4: But it's it's it's difficult to stay on Shakir.

905
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:30,239
Speaker 5: Are we serious right now?

906
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:31,760
Speaker 3: Yeah?

907
00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:34,440
Speaker 1: I mean, by the way, you can't get the you

908
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 1: can buy the plus four and a half to minus

909
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:40,240
Speaker 1: one twenty four not a bad price. So yeah, we're

910
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 1: gonna do that. That is now. That's now in Stucky

911
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:45,520
Speaker 1: your nominations.

912
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 3: We're gonna go rams over. Well, first, the first one

913
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 3: is Bill's just checking up data prices. Yeah, we can

914
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:57,839
Speaker 3: still do forty five and a half. Bill's Broncos under

915
00:47:57,880 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 3: forty five and a half. Talked about the advantag just

916
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:03,319
Speaker 3: for both defenses. Think that's going to be just a grinding,

917
00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:10,319
Speaker 3: low possession, bleeding clock type of game. Both defenses I

918
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:12,759
Speaker 3: think have major schematic advantages. The too high for the

919
00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 3: Bills against bow Knicks the man coverage against Josh Allen

920
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 3: and those receivers. Defenses getting healthier, So we'll go under there.

921
00:48:24,200 --> 00:48:27,960
Speaker 3: Then I'm gonna go Rams over twenty six and a half.

922
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:31,239
Speaker 3: This total has come down because of the weather. I

923
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:34,160
Speaker 3: don't think the wind is going to be completely devastating.

924
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:37,239
Speaker 3: I can't see all where the Rams don't get the

925
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:40,000
Speaker 3: twenty seven without flukes. I mean there could be turnovers

926
00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:42,959
Speaker 3: and things like that. But if you remove the top

927
00:48:43,080 --> 00:48:48,920
Speaker 3: five defenses. The Rams played on their schedule, so Seattle, Philly,

928
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:50,719
Speaker 3: and Houston, and by the way, they should have put

929
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 3: up thirty plus against Philly. They did put up thirty

930
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:55,480
Speaker 3: eight in one of the games against Seattle. Well let's

931
00:48:55,520 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 3: just remove those games. I mean, the Bears are like

932
00:48:57,680 --> 00:49:01,360
Speaker 3: a bottom eight or nine defense. They're thirtieth in EPA

933
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 3: without turnovers, they're twenty eighth in DVA, twenty six in

934
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:07,239
Speaker 3: success rate. I mean, this is you could argue there's

935
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 3: a bottom five defense that's still left in the NFL playoffs.

936
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:14,760
Speaker 3: But the Rams points versus non top five defenses thirty

937
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:17,759
Speaker 3: four to thirty three, twenty seven, twenty three, thirty five,

938
00:49:17,840 --> 00:49:20,399
Speaker 3: thirty four, forty two, thirty four, twenty eight forty five,

939
00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:24,879
Speaker 3: forty one, twenty four to thirty seven seventeen. They went

940
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:28,920
Speaker 3: theveraging close to thirty three points per game in fourteen

941
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 3: games twenty seven plus and eleven of those, and the

942
00:49:32,040 --> 00:49:36,880
Speaker 3: Bears defense is twenty fourth in points per game allowed,

943
00:49:36,880 --> 00:49:39,880
Speaker 3: to spite leading the league in takeaways and turnover margin,

944
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 3: which there's some looming regression there. I expect both coaches

945
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 3: to be aggressive. Rams offensive line trending up. No Edwards,

946
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:52,959
Speaker 3: the Rams should be able to run all over the Bears,

947
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 3: all over them. I mean without Edwards, they're given up.

948
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:57,000
Speaker 3: They're already given up five yards per carry, which is

949
00:49:57,040 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 3: twenty ninth in the league. Without Edwards, it's five point

950
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 3: seven would be the worst in the league among every

951
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:06,080
Speaker 3: all teams. And we talked about Stafford and the cold.

952
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:09,359
Speaker 3: First of all, it's a tiny sample size. Second off,

953
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 3: let's let's go back to the most recent they had

954
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:13,959
Speaker 3: data point, which is in the playoffs in the snow

955
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 3: against the team that went on to win the Super Bowl.

956
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:19,880
Speaker 3: And he was great in Philly last year. And the

957
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 3: other factor here is the Rams defense is cratering. They

958
00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:27,320
Speaker 3: over the first twelve week they were first in EPA

959
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:30,320
Speaker 3: per play, but they got to face Cooper Rush and

960
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:34,319
Speaker 3: the Ravens. They faced CJ. Stroud when he had the

961
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:36,239
Speaker 3: offensive lineagers right before the game, and then the first

962
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:37,560
Speaker 3: game of the year and they had to switch around

963
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 3: their whole offensive line. You know cam Ward in the

964
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:43,040
Speaker 3: second start, Spencer Rattler, the Bucks Baker got hurt and

965
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:45,880
Speaker 3: it was Teddy Bridgewater, I think for the entire game.

966
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:50,359
Speaker 3: So they that the first half of the year they

967
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:53,520
Speaker 3: were benefiting from a lot of offensive line quarterback situations. Over

968
00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:55,920
Speaker 3: the past seven games, they're twentieth in EPA per play.

969
00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 3: They're giving up a ton of explosives. The Bears offense

970
00:50:58,560 --> 00:51:00,839
Speaker 3: can hit those explosives. I expect Bears to move the ball.

971
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 3: I expect the Bears to put up points that will

972
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:06,040
Speaker 3: force the Ram. I don't think the Rams are gonna,

973
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:08,719
Speaker 3: you know, go up twenty three to ten and then

974
00:51:08,920 --> 00:51:11,879
Speaker 3: that's it and then the Bear. We see these Disbars teams.

975
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:14,120
Speaker 3: This Bears team can score twenty plus points in the

976
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:18,279
Speaker 3: fourth quarter. Mcdaigh knows that, and there's gonna be game

977
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:20,920
Speaker 3: pressure on the Rams to keep scoring. So I like

978
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:23,000
Speaker 3: the Rams over twenty six and a half points. So

979
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:26,560
Speaker 3: Rams over twenty six and a half and the under

980
00:51:26,680 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 3: and Bears Bills. I just too me Broncos.

981
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:32,759
Speaker 2: I just bet the under literally on this show, So

982
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:35,200
Speaker 2: I think that that is my option.

983
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:38,480
Speaker 1: I can definitely get there on both of these. But

984
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:42,719
Speaker 1: I'm about to lean into one of my picks is

985
00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 1: Rams Bears over forty eight and a half. So to

986
00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 1: diversify my portfolio here, I am going to take the

987
00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:53,400
Speaker 1: under in Bill's Broncos as well. That'll be my vote.

988
00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:56,319
Speaker 1: That one was a lot easier. Look at that full

989
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:57,480
Speaker 1: agreement that it happens.

990
00:51:57,239 --> 00:52:00,000
Speaker 3: When you bring some some nice picks of tables.

991
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:02,880
Speaker 2: Brant with pres Once again, I hate Kravitz's options.

992
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:03,920
Speaker 3: I didn't even look at them yet.

993
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:06,880
Speaker 2: I can't wait for these, Like I literally I swear

994
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:10,640
Speaker 2: you ate last week. Don't get me wrong, you yupped

995
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:13,880
Speaker 2: my but once again, I feel like you're making me

996
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:17,040
Speaker 2: choose between Satan and the Devil for entertainment purposes.

997
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:20,240
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I could just copy and paste everything

998
00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:23,880
Speaker 1: that Stucky just said about the Rams. I'm just looking

999
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:24,040
Speaker 1: at it.

1000
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:25,719
Speaker 5: I just don't get how you guys aren't great about

1001
00:52:25,760 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 5: the weather.

1002
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:29,160
Speaker 3: I am, but the totals come down. So, like I

1003
00:52:29,280 --> 00:52:31,680
Speaker 3: was looking at the under, I mentioned this on the

1004
00:52:31,680 --> 00:52:33,879
Speaker 3: show early this week. I was looking at the under

1005
00:52:33,960 --> 00:52:36,880
Speaker 3: fifty one and a half, but it's moved three points

1006
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:39,880
Speaker 3: through key numbers, so at forty eight and a half,

1007
00:52:41,200 --> 00:52:42,279
Speaker 3: I could only look at the over.

1008
00:52:42,719 --> 00:52:46,239
Speaker 1: So and that's the exact thought process here, is that

1009
00:52:46,320 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 1: we've seen this. This opened at fifty one and a half.

1010
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:51,000
Speaker 1: I think we're at a bypoint now in the other direction.

1011
00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:54,040
Speaker 1: And the Rams defense, as Stuck you mentioned, has been shaky.

1012
00:52:54,200 --> 00:52:58,000
Speaker 1: They made Bryce Young look like an All Pro last week. Hey,

1013
00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 1: Carolina was perfect in the red zone. The last seven games,

1014
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:07,360
Speaker 1: teams have scored twenty seven or more five times against

1015
00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:11,279
Speaker 1: the Rams. The Bears drop thirty one last week, and

1016
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:15,080
Speaker 1: those were less than ideal weather conditions. Their defense can't

1017
00:53:15,120 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 1: get stops. Chicago's nearly dead last in every defensive category

1018
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:22,879
Speaker 1: other than takeaways there, and it's because their dbs are

1019
00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:26,160
Speaker 1: so overly aggressive. That's not gonna work against Adams and

1020
00:53:26,200 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 1: Pukinakua linebacker injuries. Kyan Williams, Blake Kram I agree, those

1021
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:34,080
Speaker 1: guys are gonna go off and both teams. I think

1022
00:53:34,120 --> 00:53:36,759
Speaker 1: this is another factor here that makes me absolutely love

1023
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:39,200
Speaker 1: the over at this number is that both of these

1024
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:41,960
Speaker 1: coaches McVeigh and Ben Johnson are two of the most

1025
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:45,840
Speaker 1: aggressive coaches in the NFL on fourth down among the

1026
00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:47,600
Speaker 1: teams that made it to the playoffs. So this is

1027
00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:50,399
Speaker 1: even including teams that made it into the wildcard round

1028
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:54,040
Speaker 1: that have been eliminated. Only the Bills attempted more fourth

1029
00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:57,439
Speaker 1: downs than the Rams and the Bears. I love love

1030
00:53:57,520 --> 00:54:00,239
Speaker 1: the over at forty eight and a half. The other

1031
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 1: one is the Bills now they're point and a half underdogs.

1032
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:06,000
Speaker 1: My plant the flag was them on the money line

1033
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, Rinse recycle repeat. I'm not going anywhere on

1034
00:54:10,120 --> 00:54:12,640
Speaker 1: this number. The Broncos three and five against the spread

1035
00:54:12,680 --> 00:54:17,680
Speaker 1: in their last eight games. Evan has Astuteley pointed out

1036
00:54:17,719 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 1: on the primer what one Seeds have been doing off

1037
00:54:20,719 --> 00:54:23,919
Speaker 1: of the bye forty three percent since two thousand and three,

1038
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:27,920
Speaker 1: three and seven against the spread since twenty twenty. The

1039
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:31,840
Speaker 1: Broncos are twenty fifth in success rate on offense. That

1040
00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:35,000
Speaker 1: is not going to fly in the playoffs. So as

1041
00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:37,920
Speaker 1: good as their defense is, I think this game is

1042
00:54:37,960 --> 00:54:40,400
Speaker 1: going to be close. Who do you want your money

1043
00:54:40,400 --> 00:54:43,400
Speaker 1: on in a close game in the fourth quarter, Josh

1044
00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:47,040
Speaker 1: Allen or Bo Nicks. I will take team I will

1045
00:54:47,120 --> 00:54:51,880
Speaker 1: take at that point, just give me, give me God himself.

1046
00:54:52,280 --> 00:54:55,680
Speaker 1: Josh Allen So Bills plus one and a half Bears,

1047
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:57,640
Speaker 1: Rams over forty eight and a half. Those are my

1048
00:54:57,680 --> 00:54:59,400
Speaker 1: two nominees. Stucky.

1049
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 3: Well, we know that Kenja's not going to back the Bills.

1050
00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:07,680
Speaker 3: I'm not either, and I like the over, so I

1051
00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 3: think this is an easy choice. So we go Rams,

1052
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:15,120
Speaker 3: Bears over forty eight and a half, Broncos Bills under

1053
00:55:15,800 --> 00:55:21,160
Speaker 3: forty five and a half, and the Bears plus four

1054
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:25,640
Speaker 3: and a half, Alt plus five fifty on DraftKings.

1055
00:55:26,520 --> 00:55:31,600
Speaker 1: Wonderful. Wow, the crown is yours a lot less fighting today.

1056
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:34,240
Speaker 1: I think that we've really come around as a podcast family.

1057
00:55:34,600 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 1: I like when we fight. I do too. I kind

1058
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 1: of miss it. Take me back to the wild card round.

1059
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode special Thanks to the

1060
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:46,840
Speaker 1: producers Gifford Gold, David Payne, Stats Hound, Evan Abrams, the Favorites.

1061
00:55:46,920 --> 00:55:51,279
Speaker 1: We'll be back on Sunday night, right after the Rams

1062
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:54,319
Speaker 1: and the Bears hopefully hit that over for us. You

1063
00:55:54,320 --> 00:55:56,640
Speaker 1: can catch it right here on the Action Network YouTube page.

1064
00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:58,520
Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. We'll see you next time here

1065
00:55:58,520 --> 00:55:59,880
Speaker 1: on the Favorites podcast present.

1066
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:11,640
Speaker 6: If I draft, I love you guys.

1067
00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:16,160
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1068
00:56:16,600 --> 00:56:19,440
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1069
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:22,359
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1070
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:23,200
Speaker 1: hundred gambler