1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:24,919 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Lots of interesting news 7 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 1: coming out of the UK. Prime Minister Boris Johnson steps down, 8 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: so of course my question is what's next? And I 9 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: honestly don't know, but our next guest does. John Author's 10 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: senior editor for Bloomberg Opinion. John. It's not like they 11 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: got a vice premiere just sitting there waiting to take over. 12 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:45,920 Speaker 1: They do. Do they have a vice premiere? And what 13 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:49,560 Speaker 1: does this vice premiere? Do you want me to answer 14 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 1: that question that there's a there is a title of 15 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:57,279 Speaker 1: depty prime Minister which has no constitutional significance. Okay, well, 16 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: given in the PA, there's a stop too disappointed office seekers. 17 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 1: In this case, Dominic rob who at one point got 18 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:15,960 Speaker 1: as far as in the Foreign Secretary, was named as 19 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:20,040 Speaker 1: his deputy by Boris two or three years ago and 20 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 1: then did actually formally act up when, as he remembered, 21 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: U Boris had to go to the ICU with COVID. 22 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 1: He has says he's not running. He really wouldn't, Dominic 23 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 1: rob has, and he would have very little chance of 24 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 1: winning anyway. So there is this availability of he is 25 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 1: a convenient guy that they can tap to be a 26 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 1: caretaker prime minister, given that a lot of Conservatives now 27 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 1: one Boris out of swift leest by the way it possible, John, 28 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 1: at this point we should make clear to those who 29 00:01:56,040 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 1: aren't Brits or political scientists that it's a system where 30 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: you vote for the party, not the person. Right. So um, yes, 31 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 1: someone asked me earlier, how can Boris leave and be 32 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: replaced by a Tory leader. Doesn't the opposition get to 33 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 1: step in now or don't they have a general election? 34 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:16,919 Speaker 1: And that's not the case. No, no, no, he's been arguing, 35 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 1: And I think this shows personally who chose that he 36 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: really doesn't quite understand the ways his own country's political 37 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: way of doing things. That he has a mandate. Certainly, 38 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 1: his popularity his personality helped the Conservatives win the nineteen 39 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 1: general election. That's true, but no, he does not have 40 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 1: a personal mandate each individual MP has a mandate to 41 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: vote for somebody to be prime minister as they see fixed. 42 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 1: There's plenty of examples in British history of prime ministers resigning, 43 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: standing down between elections and their the MP's in their party. 44 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 1: Tuesday somebody, it was one of the most famous ones, 45 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: Blair and pretty Blair standing there for Gordon Brown and 46 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: then both the last two Conservative prime ministers took over 47 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 1: in mid term without general electure, both to reason and 48 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:22,800 Speaker 1: and Boris himself. So there's nothing there's nothing unusual about 49 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 1: about about a prime minister standing down and being replaced 50 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,359 Speaker 1: by his party. How about the whole concept of the 51 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 1: caretaker prime minister? Is that just a function of what 52 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 1: popularity you have left whether you can remain a caretaker 53 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: p m ntil there's another election. I know he's Rob 54 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: is not going to be a leader to to go 55 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: into the election. No, I think Paul means Johnson wants 56 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 1: to stay as the prime minister Protram until yes he does. 57 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 1: And I my opinion, my judgment from you know, from Afar, 58 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: but I don't think he's going to be allowed to 59 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 1: do that. UM. Basically the problem for him and the 60 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 1: fact that he showed really no contrition. Never used the 61 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 1: word sorry in his speech earlier. The problem for him 62 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 1: is that this isn't about some policy disagreement or some 63 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 1: political defeat. It's about the over majority of his colleagues saying, 64 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:28,840 Speaker 1: we don't trust you. You are not personally honest enough 65 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: to be our leader. It's not even the economy is stupid. 66 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 1: They just think he's a liar. Exactly we we we 67 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:40,919 Speaker 1: don't trust you, You're a liar. Go And in these circumstances, 68 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 1: if the basis f you're saying, Theresa May can carry 69 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 1: on until they chosen a new leader. If she's resigned 70 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 1: because they know people don't trust her to to make 71 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 1: a Brexit deal, so she's a terribly weakened position, but 72 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 1: she can carry on being the Prime minister until the 73 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 1: new guy gets David Cameron can announce his resigning as 74 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 1: soon as the referendum happens, but not actually stand down 75 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: until they've chosen somebody new. But in this case it's 76 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,279 Speaker 1: not clear that you can do that because it's nothing 77 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:18,359 Speaker 1: about politics per se. It's about you personally shouldn't be 78 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: the Prime minister. You are not for this job, and 79 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 1: we don't trust you, which is a remarkable state of affairs, 80 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:30,160 Speaker 1: but it does make it difficult for conservative in peace 81 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: to serve answer and for the for a matter of months, 82 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 1: especially if THEE doesn't want to step up. Now you've 83 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:37,480 Speaker 1: got to figure out who. So it leaves a lot 84 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 1: of questions, um unanswered, John, just quickly on the market. 85 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 1: We've only got about thirty seconds, are we Is this 86 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 1: rally like a reverse ferret here? What's going on? But 87 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: rally in the pounds or no? No? In in markets? 88 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: I mean do we just don't. We don't believe the 89 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 1: FED is going to fight inflation more than a recession. 90 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 1: I think basically there was an immense shock created by 91 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:08,600 Speaker 1: the pandemic, which has created a much shorter economic cycle 92 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 1: than usual, And there is an immense shock created by 93 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 1: the fact that at this point nobody is sure they 94 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 1: really do believe the feds guidance after two reverse ferrets 95 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:22,720 Speaker 1: by the FED uh in quick succession. Therefore, it's a 96 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,559 Speaker 1: natural consequence of the market will gine call over the place? 97 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:29,599 Speaker 1: All right? I don't. I don't think there is any 98 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:34,039 Speaker 1: clear cut reason to think that, yeah, the FED will 99 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 1: fold any more than there was for respect. I recommend 100 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 1: to listeners who are wondering what the heck a reverse 101 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 1: faret is. Yes, to go on Bloomberg dot com and 102 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: read John's column. Or if you have a Bloomberg terminal 103 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 1: in front of you, type ni authors and you can 104 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 1: read a reverse ferret gets up markets trousers by John Authors. 105 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:00,080 Speaker 1: Now we're bringing Massa Takeda. He's a portfolio manager for 106 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 1: the Hennessy Japan Fund and this has been, uh, to 107 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 1: my mind, one of the most interesting stories that doesn't 108 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 1: get the coverage it deserves. Let's give it. The Bank 109 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 1: of Japan is insistent that it's gonna hold rates to 110 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 1: a quarter percent or lower, and the market mr market 111 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: is testing them out. Now traditionally this trade is called 112 00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: the widow maker. You short jgbs, you short the end, 113 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 1: and so many investors have gotten burned that it's earned 114 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: that moniker Massa Takeda, Are you one of those investors 115 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 1: that's trying this again? Uh No, I'm just make fenty 116 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: vibes to conclupanies. Well, what do you think about the 117 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: Bank of Japan's will to hold out against the market? 118 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 1: I mean, can they keep it uh pegged it a 119 00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 1: quarter percent? Or will they have to let it slide 120 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 1: like the Swiss National Ank did a couple of years ago. 121 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: Um well, it's hard to tell, but it seems like 122 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 1: a plank of plan is they're very much committed to 123 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 1: the zero right policy and we have to control um. 124 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 1: Now they're in a dilemma. Obviously, if they choose to 125 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 1: raise rates, then of course it's going to hurt the economy. 126 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 1: We're just you know, coming out of the pandemic. Um. 127 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 1: So it's there's still their fragile um if they don't 128 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:28,080 Speaker 1: choose to raise rates. But then um, the yam will 129 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 1: continue to depreciate on lightening interest rate differential, and that's 130 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:36,960 Speaker 1: going to also drive inflation for the so and that 131 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: that inflation isn't going to be good for the equality either. 132 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 1: So a BAN, I think it is a very tricky 133 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 1: situation right now. Um So that's that's that's my take 134 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:47,719 Speaker 1: on just just pointing out right now we're at a 135 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 1: hundred thirty five seventy two, which is we're having around 136 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 1: the low. The last time we saw this was you know, 137 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 1: long term capital management, yep, exactly. I'm looking at the 138 00:08:57,400 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 1: one year chart for the Japanese end. We started the 139 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: year are year ago twelve months ago. What about one 140 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 1: ten UH now are one thirty five such as significant weakening? 141 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 1: Must I love to get just your overview based upon 142 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,439 Speaker 1: your experience of the folks you talked to in Japan. 143 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 1: How has the pandemic impacted Japan just broadly defined, and 144 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 1: how has it impacted the economy and and how are 145 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:25,679 Speaker 1: folks they're dealing um. Obviously economy was severely damaged and UM. 146 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 1: And also it has been not as resilient as as 147 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:33,680 Speaker 1: we hoped it as we hoped UM and still enhanced. 148 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,960 Speaker 1: The economy is in a very fraudule the state. So 149 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:39,320 Speaker 1: as a call photo manager, I mean I'm a I'm 150 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 1: a japan UM photo manager. But my UH investment style 151 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:49,479 Speaker 1: is to invest in great companies that have global footprints. 152 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 1: So trying not to put all our eggs in one basket, um, 153 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:55,679 Speaker 1: you know, one geography UM and they loven't great companies 154 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 1: out there in Japan that have a strong presence UM worldwide. 155 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 1: And if if there's going to be you know, a 156 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:04,680 Speaker 1: strong uptake in Japan, our port companies should also benefit 157 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 1: from it. So that's my sort of defensive investment strategy 158 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 1: at the moment. So talk to us about maybe some 159 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 1: names that might fit that. Uh, you know the kind 160 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 1: of framework that you're you and your team are doing 161 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 1: some work on right now. Yeah. So you know, our 162 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: our investment mantra is to invest in great business with 163 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: exceptional management attractive class. So, um, you know we uh 164 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 1: growth growth manager. We're in the growth management bucket. And 165 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 1: obviously a market rotation from growth of value has been 166 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:39,840 Speaker 1: has taken a toll on us. Um that we continuously 167 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 1: remain invested in in our long term holdings and growth needs. 168 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 1: But at the same time, we've been actively searching for 169 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,679 Speaker 1: what I would call growth names in disguise, and what 170 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 1: I mean by that is companies whose growth prospects are 171 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: just as strong as any pure growth name. We're talking 172 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 1: about learning, throw a Group, Campus and plus, but they're 173 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 1: trading out of value stuff about multiples due to its 174 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,720 Speaker 1: perceptions in the market. And I would highlight the Touch 175 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 1: as an example. And then there's another example, another type 176 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 1: of growth in disguise where growth growth earn if growth 177 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 1: rate might be in the med single digits, but they 178 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:16,839 Speaker 1: come with significant ability to buy back shares and sub 179 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:18,679 Speaker 1: division news and if you add am all up, you 180 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 1: can plus return as a showholder. And I would highlight 181 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 1: general insurance companies as as as primary example. I just 182 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: want to quickly ask you about the election House of 183 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: Counselor's election on Sunday. What are the market implications of that? Uh? 184 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:37,439 Speaker 1: What could they be? Well, it seems like the ruling 185 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: party is going to win the majority ships um and UM. 186 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 1: I think you know right now Prime Minister Kishi Daum 187 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:51,199 Speaker 1: he's been promoting the so called Japan's New capitalism and 188 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:55,599 Speaker 1: the market was once in spooks by the prospects of 189 00:11:56,200 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 1: Kishida potentially introducing not to shareholder not extridly. Um. Policing 190 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,960 Speaker 1: is just like higher how about the games tax ridge 191 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 1: and middle on bridge hikes. Um. So depending on what 192 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: policy imagers will will come out going forward, they may 193 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 1: have some many percussions in the market, but I would 194 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:15,959 Speaker 1: look at it more positively. There. You know, this is 195 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 1: really a mark to shift from showhold of friendly capitalism 196 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 1: to sustainable growth capitalism. So um, you know we should 197 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 1: take it as a positive movement. All right, Massa, thank 198 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us there. Massa takeda portfolio 199 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: manager for the Hennessy Japan Fund, getting an update on 200 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 1: the developments out of Japan, and again elections matches pointed 201 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 1: out coming up out in sun Valley, Idaho at this 202 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 1: time of year. Every year, the good friends at Allen 203 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: and Company, the investment bank hold their conference. Were all 204 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 1: the big tech media, telecom, really cool kids gather uh 205 00:12:57,160 --> 00:12:59,599 Speaker 1: to just talk deals, talk business, talk, what's going on 206 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:02,320 Speaker 1: in the world, and of course we send out our 207 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 1: ace reporter. Ed Ludlow is a West Coast correspondent for 208 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. Ed, you're in sun Valley. You probably went 209 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 1: to the Soul last night for a couple of cocktails. 210 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: Hopefully you bumped into some media moguls. But what are 211 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,719 Speaker 1: you hearing out there in beautiful sun Valley? What's the 212 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:20,160 Speaker 1: theme kind of this year? Yeah, you know, Tom Keating 213 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 1: just framed it as the Ludlow Humility Meter there television, 214 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:28,319 Speaker 1: and at first I thought, oh goodness, here we go. 215 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 1: But then you know, that is pretty appropriate that all 216 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 1: the conversations I'm having on the record on boom Bow 217 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 1: Television and in the corridors behind the scenes, is that 218 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 1: there's kind of dis acceptance of the world is very 219 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 1: different from twelve months ago and pre pandemic. There's public 220 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 1: market volatility, you know, there's zeroed in on the inflation story, recession. 221 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:51,199 Speaker 1: But you know, everyone is quite bullish here. You know, 222 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 1: there's a lot of optimism. They're clearly enjoying each other's company. 223 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 1: But remember this is a TMT conference where the focus 224 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 1: is deals and meeting your clients, your customers, your bankers, 225 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,959 Speaker 1: and everyone is kind of acknowledging the problems out in 226 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: the world but saying there are real opportunities in these 227 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 1: sectors to deploy capital. And I think that's really interesting. 228 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 1: So what are the biggest deals that we're looking at 229 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:15,839 Speaker 1: right now? What are people talking about there? You know, 230 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 1: I think the valuations have come down a lot, particular 231 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 1: in media and telecoms companies, right you know, the big 232 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 1: king of the hill is the phrase I used this 233 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 1: year is is Warner Brow's Discovery CEO David Doust laugh, 234 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 1: you know that merger was successful. Um, he is kind 235 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 1: of point and optimistic. And it's funny because last year Netflix, 236 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 1: Read Hasting S Sanda Rose were kind of those star 237 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 1: people that everyone wanted to be too. But there's this 238 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 1: idea that valuations have come down. The consumer has so 239 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: much choice on the streaming side, and you do wonder 240 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 1: whether there will be further consolidation. One really interesting point 241 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: some sources made me last night, and by the way, 242 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 1: I did go to the Pioneer Saloon. It was excellent. Saturday, 243 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:00,040 Speaker 1: according to sources, is the day that a lot of 244 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 1: the smallest startups and interesting founders have been invited present. 245 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 1: And one source, a long time attendy and investor, said 246 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 1: to me that he actually invested, has invested over the 247 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 1: years in many of those startups that present on the Saturday. 248 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 1: You know, they're all kinds of people from healthcare, biotech, transport, mobility, tech, 249 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:23,080 Speaker 1: and they get an opportunity to stand in front of 250 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 1: this just incredible room of people and make their pitch 251 00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 1: behind closed doors. And I'm told with absolute certainty that 252 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 1: the twelve months that follow a lot of those guys 253 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 1: do receive investments, you know. And one of the speakers 254 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: that I think a lot of folks are in participating 255 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 1: hearing from, assuming he shows up as Elon Musk because 256 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 1: there's a big, big m and a trade out there 257 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 1: that he's involved in with Twitter, that is really you know, 258 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 1: nobody knows whether this thing is going to go through 259 00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 1: or not, and nobody really knows what he's thinking anywhere. 260 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know, So we'd love to hear 261 00:15:56,680 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: from Mr musk Is that's still the plan to as 262 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: a former m and a banker in the TMT space, 263 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 1: if someone if the richest man in the world made 264 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: an offer for a company at would you expect it 265 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 1: to be trading at thirty nine? No? Absolutely not, And 266 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 1: so that kind of tells you the market's telling you're 267 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 1: right there that it's they don't view it as a 268 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 1: credible deal. But what do you expect to hear ed 269 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 1: from Elon musk Iffen when he shows up? So sources 270 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 1: tell me that he is showing up. We're not sure 271 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 1: when we thought it would be today Thursday. Sources also 272 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 1: tell me that he is making the Saturday prime time 273 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 1: address and now that's that's a slot usually reserved for 274 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 1: one Warren Buffett traditionally at the Allen and Co. Conference. 275 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 1: So I thought that was interesting. Um, wait, Warren Buffett 276 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 1: like always does it. Warren Buffett traditionally speaks on the 277 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 1: Saturday and you know the Oracle of Omaha, it's his 278 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 1: moment where he gives his world view behind closed doors. 279 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 1: You know a lot of Allen and Co. Attendees I've 280 00:16:57,640 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 1: spoken to in private say, you know, this is why 281 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 1: people stay through the weekend. You know this is this year. 282 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: By the way attendees are allows bring their families. You 283 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:08,120 Speaker 1: have the extra added issue of childcare and keeping people 284 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:10,160 Speaker 1: entertained in one of the most beautiful spots on Earth. 285 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:13,200 Speaker 1: It's very hard. It's a serious issue for Elon Musk, 286 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 1: now right with nine childious issue. We'll get to that 287 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,159 Speaker 1: that basically, you know, I have spoken to people about it. 288 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 1: They are talking about it in the corridors. Ned SEAgel 289 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 1: Twitter CFO is here. I asked him. I shouted at him, frankly, 290 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,160 Speaker 1: are you going to meet with Elon? And he smiled 291 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 1: and put his index finger in the air showing one digit. 292 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:36,320 Speaker 1: But and you know I took that to mean one 293 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:38,720 Speaker 1: time he'll meet with him. I have no idea what 294 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,520 Speaker 1: he was saying. We haven't seen Tara Gagl who's the 295 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:44,400 Speaker 1: Twitter CEO. I have had a number of conversations people 296 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 1: that say Elon Musk can't get out of this. The 297 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 1: reverse termination fee is a distraction. You can't bank on 298 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 1: him just being able to pay a billions dollars to 299 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,959 Speaker 1: walk away. One source made a really interesting point. If 300 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,200 Speaker 1: your Twitter and you want to fight this. To Belon 301 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 1: Musk walks away, you really going to go to court 302 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:03,440 Speaker 1: for a decade, you know, because that's how long it 303 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 1: could take. So I think the consensus here is that 304 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 1: he could come in with a lower offer price. And 305 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:12,680 Speaker 1: if your Twitter share if you're an existing Twitter shareholder, 306 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 1: you would bite somebody's hand off for that deal any 307 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 1: time in the last two years, right, you just would 308 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:21,680 Speaker 1: like So I think that a lower price for those involved, 309 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:23,959 Speaker 1: just to get it done would be a good outcome 310 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 1: based on what you know, the conversations I'm having. So, 311 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:32,359 Speaker 1: Elon Musk has another set of twins that we didn't 312 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 1: know about, and apparently one of his kids has like 313 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 1: disowned him. Really, so how many I guess nine unless 314 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 1: you don't count um his one of his kids just 315 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 1: changed her name you know, and gender and said she 316 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:56,440 Speaker 1: wants nothing to do with her father. Probably is this 317 00:18:56,520 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 1: getting to no? Okay, So a lot to back here, 318 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 1: But there was a business inside a report that Elon 319 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 1: Musk had twins who are now eight months old, with 320 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 1: the Neuralink employee, and that was discovered through court filings 321 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:14,359 Speaker 1: where the NEURALNK employee and Masque wanted to have the 322 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:17,160 Speaker 1: names changed so that it reflected the Musque name as well. 323 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 1: But why didn't they just put that on the birth certificate. 324 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:21,440 Speaker 1: I don't get that. Usually when the kid's born, you 325 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 1: just put the father's name down. And well, two things. 326 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 1: I'm yet to be a father, But I also don't 327 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 1: pretend to know what is going on inside. Elon must 328 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:35,120 Speaker 1: mind and the actions that he takes at any time. Um. 329 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 1: But according if this report is to be believed them, 330 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 1: you know, we've asked Musque about it. He hasn't replied. 331 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:43,640 Speaker 1: We've asked Neural Link about it, they haven't replied. Then 332 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 1: Musk does currently technically have nine children? All right, We've 333 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 1: got to keep up to date on that stuff. But 334 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 1: that just came across. I mean, we don't, Actually we don't. 335 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:56,359 Speaker 1: It's silly, gossipy stuff. And I guess CEOs can have 336 00:19:56,440 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 1: as many children as they want, just like a normal person. Um. 337 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,119 Speaker 1: And he has certainly got the money to support them. Well, 338 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,400 Speaker 1: he's got a he's got a policy. It's just fun 339 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: to keep up with Elon. He thinks there needs to 340 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: be more people on the planet, right, he says, yeah, 341 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 1: Yet I saw a tweet from him today that said 342 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 1: the US has been underpopulated for like fifty years, so 343 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: it's against consensus. I think. All right, all right, Ed Ludlow, 344 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 1: West Coast, corresponding Bloomberg News. He is our reporter on 345 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 1: the ground in sun Valley. We get talked about Rivivian. 346 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,120 Speaker 1: Next time we get on, we gotta talk about Rivian. 347 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:35,199 Speaker 1: Yesterday they boosted their UH production target for the second quarter. Right, 348 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 1: stop us up? Not good stuff, ed Lolo out there 349 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:43,639 Speaker 1: at sun Valley, Idaho. Let's get right to it. Danielle 350 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 1: DeMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence, also at the Dallas 351 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:50,240 Speaker 1: FED for a while. So when we talk interest rates, 352 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,480 Speaker 1: when we talk FED, boom our go to choice here 353 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 1: and daniel nothing says that we're getting back to normal 354 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 1: than Danielle DeMartino Booth in our Bloomberg, in our actor 355 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:00,440 Speaker 1: broker studio. So what is the Fed? Wait? How was 356 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: the flight? First of all, how is you travel? Because 357 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 1: last time Paul came here from Texas, his flight was canceled. 358 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 1: He was forced to stay at a water park all day. Yes, well, 359 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:11,399 Speaker 1: knock on wood because I've got to get on another 360 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 1: flight tomorrow. But it was seamless now, but one in 361 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,120 Speaker 1: front of me was canceled because of no crew. That's 362 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 1: the thing's all right. So what let's assume that there's 363 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 1: a crew at the Federal Reserve. Are they going to 364 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:24,919 Speaker 1: raise fifty basis points? Seventy five basis points? What are 365 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:27,920 Speaker 1: you thinking? So two days after the FED announces, we're 366 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:32,080 Speaker 1: probably going to get our second negative print on personal consumption, expenditures, 367 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: personal income, and spending comes out the Friday. At it's important, 368 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: it's very important for it. In fact, they're likely to 369 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 1: have that data in hand when they announced, and if 370 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 1: it's negative, I would argue, counterintuitively that they're gonna go 371 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 1: for seventy five basis points to get it into the can. Yeah. 372 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 1: I actually have a bet right now with Paul and 373 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:52,680 Speaker 1: Ira Jersey. If they do seventy five, Paul has to 374 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 1: drive me down to Princeton and Ira has to buy 375 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 1: us dinner. I started feeling, honestly a little bit nervous 376 00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,639 Speaker 1: about that bet yesterday reading these fedman it's that everyone 377 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 1: said we're hawkish, and I got this feeling in my 378 00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:06,440 Speaker 1: stomach like I could lose this bet. I don't know why, 379 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 1: but it's not a sure thing. It's nothing is a 380 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,479 Speaker 1: sure thing, and I think that markets interpreted the minutes 381 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 1: as being a time stamp, which sometimes markets don't. Sometimes 382 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 1: markets read in that the Fed is massage the minutes 383 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,200 Speaker 1: after the fact if they have a reason to do so. 384 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:23,680 Speaker 1: But I think a lot of people said, you know 385 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,160 Speaker 1: what those minutes were time stamp before the Atlanta Fed 386 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,160 Speaker 1: printed negative two point one percent for the second quarter, 387 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,320 Speaker 1: before SMP Global said the second quarter was gonna be 388 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,920 Speaker 1: negative one point five um. And that's telling you something actually, 389 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:39,120 Speaker 1: because the Atlanta Fed GDP now model kind of broke 390 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: down during COVID, and now that we've got all the 391 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 1: COVID noise out of the data, it's coming right back 392 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 1: up to where some of the best models on the 393 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 1: street are and they're converging. And that that tells you 394 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,479 Speaker 1: that a lot of it tells you why a lot 395 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,640 Speaker 1: of cell side, if it's economist right now, are saying 396 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:55,159 Speaker 1: it's going to be a technical recession but not a 397 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 1: real one. I mean, it would have to be really 398 00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 1: far off for there to be growth though, right We're 399 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,119 Speaker 1: very likely to see two quarters of contraction, right, I mean, 400 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 1: I'm saying that's a recession, but it's a it's a 401 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,680 Speaker 1: technical one, but not not a real one, everybody argues 402 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,879 Speaker 1: with the Gary Shillings. No, no, NBR has to come 403 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 1: out and say it's a recession. And I think nb 404 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 1: ER will come out and say it's a recession like 405 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,800 Speaker 1: in twelve months or so, because there's a typical twelve 406 00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 1: to eighteen month leg. That's when they timestamped these puppies. 407 00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:26,360 Speaker 1: But again, we've had credit card spending very strong, We've 408 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:30,320 Speaker 1: had we've had consumers blow through their savings, so we've 409 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:34,439 Speaker 1: propped up consumption some would say somewhat artificially, and now 410 00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:38,760 Speaker 1: we're heading for a consumption cliff that's just now starting, 411 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:43,960 Speaker 1: so that that can prolong the recession. I have a listener, 412 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,360 Speaker 1: writes in I think he's watched you speak a few times, 413 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 1: so he's a big fan. And he points out that 414 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 1: are forecasts have been all over the map about what 415 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,960 Speaker 1: the Fed is gonna do, about whether we're gonna have 416 00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 1: a recession, how shallow it's going to be, how short, 417 00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,760 Speaker 1: And he points out we haven't see seeing a quantitative 418 00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 1: tightening yet, which is a huge question mark. We haven't 419 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,920 Speaker 1: seen the downward revisions and earnings right analysts on the 420 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,200 Speaker 1: sales side have still left um their revisions are their 421 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,960 Speaker 1: forecast sky high. We haven't seen inflation come down, we 422 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 1: haven't really seen job losses. This is all too comma, 423 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,879 Speaker 1: it is, and it's all building up in this system. 424 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 1: And yet when you follow every Friday after the close, 425 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:26,359 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve publishes the highth eight and in in 426 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,959 Speaker 1: there there is a very good, reliable gauge of liquidity 427 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:32,560 Speaker 1: and it has been negative for three months in a 428 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:36,680 Speaker 1: row prior to QT, and that people need to understand. 429 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,640 Speaker 1: And Muhammadarian has done a very good job of articulating 430 00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 1: where we are right now in the cycle, that we're 431 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 1: heading from recession shock to a liquidity shock, and that 432 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,240 Speaker 1: really changes the game. So right now I think that 433 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 1: we're still in the midst of yet another bearer market rally. Alright, 434 00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 1: So is this Federal Reserve. I've always thought of it 435 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,399 Speaker 1: as kind of a balancing act between fighting and inflation, 436 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,520 Speaker 1: yet not pushing it into a action. But now some 437 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:04,439 Speaker 1: people are saying they're really focused on inflation, but yet 438 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 1: some people say they're really focused on keeping us out 439 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:08,399 Speaker 1: of a recession. Is it a balancing act or do 440 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,680 Speaker 1: you feel like they have a bias. It is a 441 00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 1: balancing act, but it's a less balanced act headed into 442 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:18,400 Speaker 1: this close to an election, and so federals are officials 443 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 1: are really there's an existential crisis going on as it 444 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,679 Speaker 1: pertains to September because it's so close to the election. 445 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 1: But surely this independent body for Heaven won't risk its 446 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:34,160 Speaker 1: credibility for the political status quo rights not. It's only 447 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:38,280 Speaker 1: been politicized since Greenspan started leaking information on TERMP to 448 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,399 Speaker 1: bond trading desk. But other than that, the play, the 449 00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 1: play was great, Mrs Lincoln, I uh, yeah, it's pretty crazy. 450 00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,120 Speaker 1: By the way, why isn't Mohammed running the Fed? Why 451 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,440 Speaker 1: isn't somebody he made the right calls for the last 452 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:54,680 Speaker 1: couple of years and no one was listening. Apparently he's 453 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 1: in England, He's not that far away, and his voice 454 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 1: is pretty loud and his point. He's had some pretty 455 00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:05,080 Speaker 1: important as well, and he's had some great calls, and 456 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 1: he really has lined up the domino as well and 457 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:11,400 Speaker 1: warned us one step after another. We've got an inflation shock. 458 00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 1: Now we're gonna have a recession shock. Now we're gonna 459 00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 1: have a liquidity shock. He's been there the whole time, 460 00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 1: and actually because j Powell founded the Industrials Group at 461 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:21,879 Speaker 1: the Carlisle. He speaks to people in this world. He 462 00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,000 Speaker 1: speaks to people in private equity. He knows that banks 463 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 1: are sitting on north of fifty billion dollars of loans 464 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 1: that they can't get priced. J. Powe speaks to these people. 465 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:30,760 Speaker 1: He knows that liquidity in the system is seizing up. 466 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,560 Speaker 1: And I think that's why they treat quantitative tightening like 467 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:35,879 Speaker 1: the boldem word. It's like, don't talk about it, just 468 00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: don't don't, don't talk, don't bring it up. So don't 469 00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:41,160 Speaker 1: we see it's Bruno, It's Bruno. Now we don't talk 470 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 1: about Bruno. We don't know, no, no, what does Liudo 471 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 1: look like to every day folks like me? Liquidity shocks 472 00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 1: looks like four out of five people saying they're afraid 473 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,879 Speaker 1: of losing their job. They start to see bankruptcies, and 474 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,920 Speaker 1: we are starting to see bankruptcies. We're starting to see 475 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,879 Speaker 1: some of the vestiges of the industrial recession that we're in. 476 00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,680 Speaker 1: In fact, if you looked at today's jobless claims, the 477 00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:10,440 Speaker 1: state with the fastest rising and the greatest extent is Michigan. Michigan, 478 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,400 Speaker 1: we've and you know what there's apparently a semiconductor glut 479 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: in the making, So we're gonna have tell that to 480 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:20,359 Speaker 1: my Chevy Silverado sitting in I have ordered a Shelvy Silverado. 481 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:22,679 Speaker 1: I've been waiting months and months for it. It's built 482 00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,720 Speaker 1: at a factory in Mexico, but they won't ship it 483 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 1: to me because it doesn't have the right chips. They're coming, 484 00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,399 Speaker 1: They're coming, and we're gonna be talking about life, housing 485 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 1: and oversupply of cars in a year. All right, Danielle, 486 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Daniel DeMartino Booth 487 00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,479 Speaker 1: should let's take a picture and we'll tweet that. We'll 488 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:43,920 Speaker 1: do that. CEO Chief Strategist Quill Intelligence, also form advisor 489 00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:49,080 Speaker 1: at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Thanks for listening 490 00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:52,600 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen 491 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:56,880 Speaker 1: to interviews of Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 492 00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,200 Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Leer in 493 00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,160 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy three and on ball Sweeney I'm on Twitter 494 00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:06,040 Speaker 1: at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch 495 00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:07,680 Speaker 1: us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio