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Speaker 1: Welcome in friends to Betting Pros College Football Early Look

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Speaker 1: Week fourteen. It is the conference championship time. I am

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Speaker 1: Chris Welsh, joined by Thor Nystrom. You can find for

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Speaker 1: at four KU on the Twitters and Thor our last show,

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Speaker 1: Our last show. I got to come and pinch hit.

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Speaker 1: At least you and I you will be doing plenty

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Speaker 1: as the bowl games come in, and as far as

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Speaker 1: I know, at least for the early look of what

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Speaker 1: we're doing. I very very very much enjoyed doing these

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Speaker 1: with you for close.

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Speaker 2: To half of the season.

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Speaker 1: But this is our last one together, my friend.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's bettersweet for sure, but yeah, I've enjoyed doing

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Speaker 3: these too. We had an awesome college football Saturday yesterday,

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Speaker 3: and we've had some very interesting lines dropped today for

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Speaker 3: the conference title games, and we've already started seeing some

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Speaker 3: line movement, as you and I were talking about before

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Speaker 3: the show.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we spent a little bit of time going through it.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: One of the games we spent a decent amount of

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Speaker 1: time talking with last week, and you did a really

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Speaker 1: really impressive breakdown, was the Michigan Ohio State game, and

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Speaker 1: you were talking about how much that Michigan side was

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Speaker 1: playing in and what a game for the two and

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Speaker 1: three and Michigan pulls out the outright win. Thoughts just

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Speaker 1: coming off of one of the biggest games of the year,

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Speaker 1: one of the biggest rivalries in all of sports, I mean,

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Speaker 1: just all the implications coming out of it from Michigan

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Speaker 1: beating Ohio State.

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Speaker 3: Well, from a selfish perspective, my impression was I had

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Speaker 3: an enormous bet.

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Speaker 2: Regret about it because.

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Speaker 1: Like you took money money.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, like we talked about last week, I was all

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Speaker 3: prepared to pick Michigan to win out right, certainly take

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Speaker 3: them with the points obviously and stuff like that.

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Speaker 2: But then the Blake quorum thing.

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Speaker 3: It just got the injury thing, and then Donovan Edwards,

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Speaker 3: his backup, had missed the previous game, and so I

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Speaker 3: just got two in my head about it, and I

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Speaker 3: decided to stay away. But Ohio State, as we have

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Speaker 3: been talking about now for a month, has just been

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Speaker 3: begging to get beat by anybody, and Michigan didn't even

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Speaker 3: need Blake Koram to absolutely annihilate them on their home field.

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Speaker 3: Michigan ran the ball better, they passed the ball better,

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Speaker 3: they defended the run better, they defended the pass better,

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Speaker 3: they turned the ball over last, had less penalties, They

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Speaker 3: have more yards per pass, they had more yards per run.

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Speaker 2: I mean, like across the.

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Speaker 3: Board point to one area where Ohio State acquitted itself

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Speaker 3: well in that game. So kudos to Michigan and especially

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Speaker 3: doing it without Blake. Korm obviously had enormous playoff implications

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Speaker 3: and had even perhaps bigger implications on the Heisman race,

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Speaker 3: where CJ. Stroud coming into last week he was still

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Speaker 3: the favorite to win the award. By the time we

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Speaker 3: got done yesterday with the action, Caleb Williams was something

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Speaker 3: like minus four thousand. He's I mean, he is way

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Speaker 3: beyond the prohibited favorite at this time. The books are

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Speaker 3: just telling us that Caleb Williams is going to win

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Speaker 3: the Heisman and crazy things would need to happen this

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Speaker 3: weekend for that not to happen. So just a crazy

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Speaker 3: game with all sorts of enormous implications going on with it.

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Speaker 1: Do you remember like a switch like that paying attention

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Speaker 1: to the books for the heismaners because I saw you

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Speaker 1: tweeting about that. I mean, that was like a close thing,

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Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden, bam, Caleb Williams just

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Speaker 1: demolishes the odds across the board. Do you recall kind

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Speaker 1: of a move like that in like the final week

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Speaker 1: of the season, pre conference championship.

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Speaker 3: Well maybe if you took it over the week, you know,

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Speaker 3: by and large, but just in the you know, the

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Speaker 3: several hours.

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Speaker 2: No, I'd never seen anything like that.

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Speaker 3: Because Caleb Williams win from essentially even money to begin

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Speaker 3: the day to win the Heisman. He was he was

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Speaker 3: minus three thousand by the time the Ohio State game

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Speaker 3: got done. But the USC game, it hadn't even kicked

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Speaker 3: off against Notre Dame. We're still a couple hours away

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Speaker 3: from that kickoff, and he his odds had just gotten

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Speaker 3: really crazy, and it was it was a bizarre sort

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Speaker 3: of proposition where you're you're thinking about it in real time,

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Speaker 3: and it's like, well, if Notre Dame upsets USC and

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Speaker 3: Caleb Williams doesn't play, well, now that the guys who

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Speaker 3: there's gonna be guys behind there that are just going

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Speaker 3: to you know, shove up the bord or whatever. But

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Speaker 3: if Caleb Williams and USC, if they hold serve in

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Speaker 3: this game, the odds are going to get even crazier

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Speaker 3: in Caleb Williams's favor, and that's obviously what ended up happening.

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Speaker 3: But no, I'd never seen something like that where a

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Speaker 3: kid goes from plus one hundred to win an award

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Speaker 3: to minus three thousand in the course of a couple

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Speaker 3: hours when he has not yet taken the field.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I saw a couple of people I follow note that,

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Speaker 1: like they're like three hours ago. I just got, you know,

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Speaker 1: even money on Caleb Williams to win the Heisman, and

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Speaker 1: now the odds have gone through the roof. It was

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Speaker 1: pretty wild. So you literally, up until like two days ago,

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Speaker 1: could have taken it, or as we're recording this, you

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Speaker 1: could have taken advantage of that. And now that is

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Speaker 1: out the window. That's outsee's the window. So let's talk

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Speaker 1: about the games. Let's get the early look. Obviously, the

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Speaker 1: games are tapering down because we've got conference championships across

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Speaker 1: the board. We've got a couple on Friday, we've got

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Speaker 1: a whole set on Saturday, and we're also going to

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Speaker 1: highlight as Thor has already got some early lines locked

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Speaker 1: up for some of these games. But let's start with

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Speaker 1: the Friday games, and let's go over to the Conference

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Speaker 1: USA Championship, or where North Texas is taking on Utsa

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Speaker 1: UTSA ten and two, eight and oh in the Conference,

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Speaker 1: North Texas is seven. And you saw a very very

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Speaker 1: nice advantage early on on this and UTSA you have

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Speaker 1: an adjusted spread that is over ten. The line is

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Speaker 1: looking like it's sitting around eight and a half. So

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Speaker 1: talk to me about UTSA in this game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought the books dropped this line too low.

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Speaker 3: When it came out it was UTSA minus seven and

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Speaker 3: a half. I bought the ticket right Dan, Like you mentioned,

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Speaker 3: the thing has moved to points in the last hour

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Speaker 3: and a half two hours since then, and I expect

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Speaker 3: this one to get closer to double digits by the

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Speaker 3: time we kick. I think a part of the reason

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Speaker 3: that the books were a little bit gunshy about it

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Speaker 3: maybe was UTSA was sort of playing Patsy or Patty

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Speaker 3: Cake with UTEP yesterday, very similarly ironically to what UTSA

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Speaker 3: had done the year before in the exact same spot

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Speaker 3: against these North Texas Me and Green. In that game,

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Speaker 3: North Texas ended up beating them, but UTSA turned around

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Speaker 3: the next you know, and UTSA was a double digit

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Speaker 3: fave in that game, just like they were yesterday on Saturday,

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Speaker 3: but UTSA turned around the next week and won the

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Speaker 3: Conference USA Championship. They beat Bailey Zappi and the high

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Speaker 3: flying WKU Hilltoppers. UTSA did the exact same thing this

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Speaker 3: time around. This time around, they did end up winning.

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Speaker 3: They had fallen down to UTEP like twenty one to

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Speaker 3: nothing or twenty four to nothing. They dug themselves this

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Speaker 3: enormous hole, but then they sort of roared back and

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Speaker 3: at the end they won it by a field goal.

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Speaker 3: Definitely not concerned about that. It doesn't have any bearing

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Speaker 3: on this week North Texas. By the way, they barely

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Speaker 3: snuck by another five and six team that needed to

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Speaker 3: win to go into ball season in Rice, and so that,

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Speaker 3: you know, it's sort of a similar thing there, although

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Speaker 3: Rice was down to you know that they're down on

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Speaker 3: their backup quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: Whatever.

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Speaker 3: For me, this line should be minus ten, minus ten

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Speaker 3: and a half, minus eleven, somewhere in that range.

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Speaker 2: Anything beneath ten, I'm playing UTSA. Okay, that was gonna be.

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Speaker 1: My big question is like, if this thing moves to

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Speaker 1: nine or nine and a half, you're still totally comfortable

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Speaker 1: taking this line.

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Speaker 3: As the week moves on, the fire point is beneath

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Speaker 3: ten for sure. On utsa yep, okay.

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Speaker 1: And I love absolutely watching them anytime I can, So

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Speaker 1: there you go. Thorsk his bed ind the eight to

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Speaker 1: zer UTSA team is to play anything under ten, which

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Speaker 1: you still got right now. Now one of the biggest

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Speaker 1: games of the entire run here is obviously we're just

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Speaker 1: talking about the theoretical Heisman winner in Caleb Williams. USC

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Speaker 1: and Utah are facing off in a PAC twelve championship game.

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Speaker 1: USC is eleven and one. They're eight and one in

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Speaker 1: the PAC twelve. Utah is coming in nine and three

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Speaker 1: seven and two in the PAC twelve. Is a big matchup.

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Speaker 1: This will be the big highlighted game. And the early

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Speaker 1: line is really interesting because when you spit out your

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Speaker 1: stuff you had pretty much a pick them. This line, though,

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Speaker 1: is moving and sitting around one and a half, and

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's actually moved. As I've gone through

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Speaker 1: this now it looks like it's still sitting at one

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Speaker 1: and a half. So even though it's a pick them,

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Speaker 1: what do you think about USC versus Utah?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So I shared some of my bets that I

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Speaker 3: made earlier today with you, and I locked in five

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Speaker 3: of them. This one, I'm leaning towards Utah side ever

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Speaker 3: so slightly, But there's no reason to pull the trigger

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Speaker 3: on it early because there is a shot this thing

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Speaker 3: gets to USC minus three, or who knows, maybe we

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Speaker 3: even cross our fingers and hope it gets to three

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Speaker 3: and a half. But where the line is right now,

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Speaker 3: if you're interested in Utah, there's no reason betting it

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Speaker 3: early in the week. Let's just wait for the market

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Speaker 3: to push it over to the USC side. So I'm

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Speaker 3: waiting on it. But like you said, I have the

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Speaker 3: game as a pick on, and now the market's got

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Speaker 3: it one and a half at two for USC, and

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Speaker 3: we'll see if it keeps.

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Speaker 2: Going the other way.

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Speaker 3: But as you mentioned, it's a fascinating rematch, right, USC

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Speaker 3: is looking at the record and they have that little

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Speaker 3: one in the lost column that game courtesy of Utah.

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Speaker 3: Now that game was in Salt Lake City and it

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Speaker 3: was a wild one. You know, USC had pulled ahead

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Speaker 3: early and then Utah roared back at the very end

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Speaker 3: and won by a point.

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Speaker 2: Caleb Williams absolutely.

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Speaker 3: Went off in that In that game, Travis died a

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Speaker 3: really good game as well. Travis ded he's out for

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Speaker 3: the season, but the backup the two and three for

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Speaker 3: USC are pretty solid.

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Speaker 2: They've quitted themselves pretty well so far in.

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Speaker 3: The last game, and this is gonna be a big

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Speaker 3: point of emphasis for USC this week. They let Cam

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Speaker 3: Rising go absolutely ape crap and he went berserk in

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Speaker 3: that game, four hundred and seventy five yards of total offense.

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Speaker 3: And then Dalton kincaid Utah's tight end. He had sixteen

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Speaker 3: catches for two hundred and thirty four yards in a touchdown.

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Speaker 3: USC's gonna have to address that. USC has had problems

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Speaker 3: with tight ends all year, and Utah goes to the

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Speaker 3: tight ends about as much as any offense in America.

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Speaker 3: We saw it yesterday with USC against Michael Mayer. I

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Speaker 3: was all over the Michael Mayor over props and they

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Speaker 3: got there pretty early. The USC had given up three

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Speaker 3: touchdown catches to Michael Azeki.

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Speaker 2: So I think Utah is going to try to do

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Speaker 2: a pretty similar thing on offense. Utah.

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Speaker 3: I mentioned the USC will not have Travis Dye. You

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Speaker 3: have to mention Utah is not going to have Tavy

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Speaker 3: on Thomas. There areb one Utah ha gotte to more

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Speaker 3: of a platoon thing. So maybe it's not quite as concerning,

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Speaker 3: but Tavian Thomas is a really good player. He had

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Speaker 3: suffered a foot injury or a toe injury a couple

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Speaker 3: of weeks ago and announced he was just going to

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Speaker 3: player for the draft and walk away from the team,

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Speaker 3: not not try to push it or whatever. With totally

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Speaker 3: his prerogative, but you do have to mention that as well.

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Speaker 3: It's it's a really fascinating matchup. Like I said before,

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Speaker 3: it was decided by one point last time. The total

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Speaker 3: yardage in the last game five to sixty two for

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Speaker 3: Utah five point fifty six for USC. About as close

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Speaker 3: as you can get in a shootout. And USC fans

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Speaker 3: they're making I'm contractually obligated for USC fans to mention

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Speaker 3: that they have a gripe about that game because of

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Speaker 3: a late roughing the passer penalty that they have still

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Speaker 3: not forgotten USC that extended a drivet for Utah and

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Speaker 3: allowed them to eventually take the lead. So you have that,

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Speaker 3: and also you have to mention in the previous game,

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Speaker 3: Jordan Addison got nicked up in that game and had

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Speaker 3: to leave, so us he was not with his services

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Speaker 3: at the end of it.

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Speaker 2: It's a fascinating one.

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Speaker 3: But Utah is one of those teams that USC does

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Speaker 3: not want to see because they're a team that their

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Speaker 3: strengths sort of going to USC's weaknesses. We saw that

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Speaker 3: the first time around is going to be a fascinating

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Speaker 3: rema where if USC wins this one, they're punching their

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Speaker 3: ticket into the College Football Playoff.

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Speaker 1: And the new voting or the new lines of not

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Speaker 1: set as far as top twenty five at USC was six,

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Speaker 1: Utah was fourteen, So you can see the impact of

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Speaker 1: this big matchup. So if this moves to three and

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Speaker 1: a half, this is a jump on Utah. Bet if

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Speaker 1: it doesn't, is this going to be kind of a

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Speaker 1: stay away.

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Speaker 3: But beneath I mean, I'm gonna be leaning towards Utah

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Speaker 3: either way. But when it gets to three, that's going

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Speaker 3: to be my trigger point unless I unless I feel

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Speaker 3: like the way that I'm reading the market that it

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Speaker 3: could get to three and a half, because obviously you're

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Speaker 3: taking a risk at that point if you wait, because

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Speaker 3: then it could tall go back to two and a half,

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Speaker 3: you might not see it three again.

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Speaker 2: So it'll just be dependent on the market read.

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Speaker 3: But three is where the decision we have to start

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Speaker 3: thinking real hard about that, and then three and a

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Speaker 3: half for sure is it would be Yeah, that's that's

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Speaker 3: a no doubt or well.

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Speaker 1: With the conference championships. If you want to track all

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Speaker 1: of your conference championship wagers in one place, check out

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Speaker 1: betting crowspicktrack or bettingpros dot com slash Pick dash Tracking syncs.

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Speaker 2: Up your sports books.

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Speaker 1: It'll tally which picks hit, which miss, and it'll give

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Speaker 1: you live looks of what the public is doing in

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Speaker 1: real time. Go get on the leader board and quickly

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Speaker 1: become sharp by using the free advice we've got for

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Speaker 1: you over at bettingpros dot com slash Pick dash Tracking

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Speaker 1: do it. One of my favorite teams to watch this

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Speaker 1: year for everything they've done. I was telling you off

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Speaker 1: off air that I'd a pretty party hectic Thanksgiving. That

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Speaker 1: took me down a couple notches thor but usually I

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Speaker 1: would get my bets in, but I was sleeping a

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Speaker 1: little bit later and maybe recovering a little bit more.

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Speaker 1: This was the number one team I wanted to bet

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Speaker 1: on Saturday, and it's TCU, and TCU is going in

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Speaker 1: to the Big twelve Championship, facing off against Kansas State

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Speaker 1: This is another one of those, you know, theoretical top

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Speaker 1: fifteen teams. This Kansas State was twelve, TCU was four.

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Speaker 1: Early lines. I know you've got a bet on this

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Speaker 1: right now. The early lines has got it's got TCU

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Speaker 1: as a two and a half point favorite. All they

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Speaker 1: do is win and cover. So what say you about TCU?

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Speaker 1: Who are you locking in?

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Speaker 3: I locked in TCU at that two and a half number.

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Speaker 3: I didn't want it to get up to three. My

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Speaker 3: adjusted line on this game is CCU minus three point six,

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Speaker 3: So I do think that there's line value beneath three.

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Speaker 3: Even at three, I'd be okay with that. But getting

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Speaker 3: the two and a half, that's that was the no

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Speaker 3: doubt lock in point for me on Sunday here, I like,

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Speaker 3: you know, and we've seen this one before, you know,

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Speaker 3: it's another sort of fascinating rematch. October twenty second, Kansas

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Speaker 3: State had was up by eighteen points on TCU.

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Speaker 2: TCU ends up roaring back and winning that game.

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Speaker 3: But it's another one where the opposing fan base is like, yeah,

305
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Speaker 3: but we have to add some context here. Adrian Martinez

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Speaker 3: had gone down in that game for Kansas State. Will

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Speaker 3: Howard played really well in relief, and of course we're

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Speaker 3: going to see Will Howard here because Adrian Martinez is

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Speaker 3: now injured again whatever, not going to play. But in

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Speaker 3: that game, also Will Howard got injured at the end

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Speaker 3: of the third quarter. Kansas State had to bring in

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Speaker 3: their third string quarterback for then. He only threw a

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Speaker 3: one pass. That pass was intercepted by TCU, So some

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Speaker 3: of that stuff was obviously not great for Kansas State.

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Speaker 3: Kansas State even entered that game sort of injury riddled

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Speaker 3: because they had played this really rough and tumble game

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Speaker 3: with Iowa State week or two before that, and then

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Speaker 3: Duce Vaughan got nicked up in that game. There was

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Speaker 3: just a bunch of injury stuff going on on their side.

320
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Speaker 3: But it was another example of TCU sort of seizing

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Speaker 3: the moment, being resilient, and then when they got that opportunity,

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Speaker 3: it's like a race car driver going around the track

323
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Speaker 3: and you finally see the crack of where you can

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Speaker 3: get in. TCU has been accelerating through that crack every

325
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Speaker 3: single time it opens. They did it in that game

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Speaker 3: and we've seen it over and over again. TCU ended

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Speaker 3: up having one hundred and five more yards of total

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Speaker 3: offense than Kansas State in that game, but again the

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Speaker 3: injuries were a factor. And then as far as injuries now,

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Speaker 3: TCU is a team that has been banged up in

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Speaker 3: recent weeks, but they've gotten some good news. Kendray Miller,

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Speaker 3: there's stud running back. He came back in the last

333
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Speaker 3: game against Iowa State. He had like fifteen or sixteen

334
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Speaker 3: offensive touches and looked pretty good, so you can consider

335
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Speaker 3: him a hundred percent. Davis the outside speed receiver for TCU.

336
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Speaker 3: That the speed merchant kid he played. He did come

337
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Speaker 3: back last week after missing time, played limited snatch, but

338
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Speaker 3: he did have one catch for fourteen yards. TCU obviously

339
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Speaker 3: hoping that he'll be one hundred percent this week. Quinton Johnston,

340
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Speaker 3: who came into last week that he is the start

341
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Speaker 3: on the TCU team, a potential top ten overall draft pick.

342
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Speaker 3: He came into last week with injury concerns. We thought

343
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Speaker 3: he might be able to play against always say that

344
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Speaker 3: was the indications that we'd gotten.

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Speaker 2: He ended up not playing, which I found a little

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Speaker 2: bit curious.

347
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Speaker 3: Sonny Dike's right after the game though, address this, which

348
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Speaker 3: is one of the things I like about Sonny Dice.

349
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Speaker 3: He tells you a little bit more than than you know.

350
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Speaker 3: The Mike Gundies of the world and stuff like that

351
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Speaker 3: about the player injuries. But Sonny Dikes basically said Quintin

352
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Speaker 3: Johnston could have played. He was able to play today,

353
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Speaker 3: but we figured if we didn't need him for this game,

354
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Speaker 3: that we would just let him have the week and

355
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Speaker 3: then get him even more healthy for the Big twelve

356
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Speaker 3: title game. It sounded sort of like going back to

357
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Speaker 3: Gunny the scenario that he had Spencer Sanders a couple

358
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Speaker 3: weeks ago, where he actually needed to bring Spencer Sanders

359
00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:05,840
Speaker 3: in to finish out that game and get at w

360
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Speaker 3: TCU was controlling the game against IAWA Stay right from

361
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Speaker 3: the jump, so they didn't need to send in Quinton Johnson.

362
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Speaker 2: But Quinton Johnson was dressed and ready to play.

363
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Speaker 3: I would have to assume based on all the contacts

364
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Speaker 3: I had from last week and then Dike's comments right

365
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Speaker 3: after the game addressing this, the Quinton Johnson is going

366
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Speaker 3: to be playing against Kansas State, what percentage is he

367
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Speaker 3: going to be? I'm not sure, but dis clearly believes

368
00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:32,920
Speaker 3: that that he improved those that percentage by not playing

369
00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:35,200
Speaker 3: him last week. So we'll see on that but they're

370
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Speaker 3: getting back their sort of singular offensive talent. Nobody in

371
00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:41,560
Speaker 3: America can cover that kid one on one just because

372
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Speaker 3: of the physical gifts he has. So he's going to

373
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Speaker 3: provide a little bit of a puzzle for Kansas State.

374
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Speaker 3: But for me, any number beneath three, that's I'm taking

375
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Speaker 3: TCU on that over.

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Speaker 1: In the MAC Championship, Ohio's hosting Toledo, Ohio nine and

377
00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:56,680
Speaker 1: three on the year, seven and one in the MAC.

378
00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:59,360
Speaker 1: Toledo is seven and five, five and three in the MAC,

379
00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:02,760
Speaker 1: but Toledo is He's a three and a half point favorite. Currently,

380
00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,360
Speaker 1: you have a little bit of value on the adjusted

381
00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:08,879
Speaker 1: line in favor of Ohio. So what say you on

382
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Speaker 1: the MAC Championship.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just a little bit.

384
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Speaker 3: I have Toledo minus two point nine points, so basically

385
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Speaker 3: Toledo minus three and it's set three and a half

386
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Speaker 3: in the market right now.

387
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Speaker 2: I'm fine with that.

388
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Speaker 3: This is a game where this game would have been

389
00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:23,440
Speaker 3: so much more fun to watch about a month ago

390
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:26,320
Speaker 3: when both the starting quarterbacks for both teams were healthy.

391
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:29,399
Speaker 3: Because they're about studs Curtis Rourke and day Kwon Finn,

392
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Speaker 3: I don't think, well, we're definitely not going to see

393
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Speaker 3: Curtis Rourk because he's already been ruled out for the season.

394
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Speaker 3: On the Ohio side, I don't think we're going to

395
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Speaker 3: see Daiquon Finn either. Toledo tried to rush him back

396
00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:42,359
Speaker 3: last week and Daikwon Finn looked absolutely awful, like he

397
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Speaker 3: should still be in the trainer's room or a hospital

398
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:47,359
Speaker 3: room or something. They had to yank him, not because

399
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:49,520
Speaker 3: he made the injury worse, but just because he was

400
00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,320
Speaker 3: so ineffective on the field through a couple interceptions and

401
00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,240
Speaker 3: just couldn't do anything through the air, and then he

402
00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:57,760
Speaker 3: was his mobility was compromised too. He was in a

403
00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,560
Speaker 3: walk he was seen in a walking boat, maybe even

404
00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,440
Speaker 3: in the second half, but certainly after the game. It

405
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,720
Speaker 3: would be a surprise to me if Daikon Finn is

406
00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,240
Speaker 3: able to turn around seven days later and where they'll

407
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:10,520
Speaker 3: feel that they're going to have to feel better about

408
00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:13,040
Speaker 3: his health status than they did last week, because they

409
00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:15,600
Speaker 3: saw what happened last week when they tried to play him.

410
00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:18,440
Speaker 3: It really set them behind the eight ball in that game.

411
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,399
Speaker 3: So it looks like we're going to get the backup

412
00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:24,280
Speaker 3: quarterbacks on both sides. So I figured we better talk

413
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:28,720
Speaker 3: about those kids. The one that I prefer is I

414
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,440
Speaker 3: think that there's less of a downgrade on the Ohio

415
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:35,160
Speaker 3: side than the Toledo side because the Tucker Gleason kid,

416
00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:38,680
Speaker 3: he's the backup for Toledo. He's not acquitted himself well

417
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:39,960
Speaker 3: when he has had to be in, which is the

418
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,679
Speaker 3: reason that Toledo rushed back Daikwon Finn last week. But

419
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,439
Speaker 3: Tucker Gleeson when he came in for fit I mentioned

420
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Speaker 3: how poorly Finn was playing last week, so they're like, Okay,

421
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,160
Speaker 3: we can't play anymore Finn, we have to bring in Gleeson.

422
00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:54,400
Speaker 3: So they bring in Gleeson. Gleason goes thirteen of thirty eight.

423
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Speaker 3: Do that math in your head really quick. Not good

424
00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,280
Speaker 3: for two hundred yards, one touch down in one interception,

425
00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:04,360
Speaker 3: and he obviously does not have the legs that Finn does.

426
00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:08,399
Speaker 3: Gleason went one and one in his two previous starts

427
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,760
Speaker 3: when he, you know, for an injured Finn twenty seven

428
00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,240
Speaker 3: to twenty four win over EMU forty two to thirty five,

429
00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 3: lost to Ball on Green, but last week did not

430
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 3: acquit himself very well. The kid for Ohio is a

431
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:20,720
Speaker 3: little bit more interesting. Their backup.

432
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 2: His name is c. J. Harris.

433
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 3: He went ten of twenty one last week, one under

434
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,439
Speaker 3: ninety six yards and a touchdown, but he added sixty

435
00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:30,560
Speaker 3: five rushing yards and three touchdowns.

436
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Speaker 2: Basically, you can think of CJ.

437
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:36,000
Speaker 3: Harris as an enormous downgrade from Curtis Rourke as a thrower,

438
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:38,800
Speaker 3: but CJ. Harris is a better runner. Now does that

439
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,680
Speaker 3: make up the value? No, but it makes a partial

440
00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,000
Speaker 3: of the value. I just don't think he is as

441
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:47,120
Speaker 3: big of a downgrade as going from Finn to Gleason.

442
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:49,760
Speaker 3: And so maybe that you know, I should bake that

443
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:51,560
Speaker 3: a little bit more into the line. I'm not sure

444
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,480
Speaker 3: what we'll see is the statuses go on this week

445
00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:55,639
Speaker 3: if it's going to be Finn or if it's you know,

446
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,240
Speaker 3: if it's going to end up being Gleason. But if

447
00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:00,720
Speaker 3: Finn is not playing this game and it is Glease,

448
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 3: and I just don't think.

449
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,120
Speaker 2: That I could trust Toledo with a bet. Now.

450
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,880
Speaker 1: I think this was from our conversations beforehand. I feel

451
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:08,480
Speaker 1: like this is one of your favorites of the week

452
00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:11,199
Speaker 1: because there's a lot of value. This bad boy is

453
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:14,320
Speaker 1: the Sun Belt Championship. Coastal Carolina is going up against Troy.

454
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 1: Troy's ten and two, seven and one. I'm sorry, I

455
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 1: think this is the sun Belt. Yeah, this is a

456
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,880
Speaker 1: sun Belt. I don't even know if I said that correctly.

457
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 1: The Sunbelt Conference there's seven and one Coastal Carolina, six

458
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 1: and two in the sun Belt, they're nine and two

459
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,560
Speaker 1: overall record. This line that we've currently sitting at is

460
00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,919
Speaker 1: between seven and a half and eight. That is not

461
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,120
Speaker 1: the line that you got. That is not the line

462
00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:38,000
Speaker 1: that you saw, and that is not the adjusted line.

463
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 1: So I know you like Troy in this one. Talk

464
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 1: about your path on betting early on Troy.

465
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:44,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely do.

466
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 3: My ad justed line in this game is Troy minus

467
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:50,280
Speaker 3: eleven point four, and it looks like the line now

468
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,159
Speaker 3: is up to Troy minus eight and a half. I

469
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,160
Speaker 3: was able to punch it in at Troy minus seven

470
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:56,920
Speaker 3: and a half. I was mentioning to you before the show,

471
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,040
Speaker 3: it's so rare when you have a bet regret.

472
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 2: On this same day.

473
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 3: But I do with this game because earlier today when

474
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 3: I was you know, I'm always refreshing my books to

475
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,160
Speaker 3: see when they'll drop the line, And when they first

476
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,639
Speaker 3: dropped the line, it was Troy minus five, which is

477
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:11,480
Speaker 3: one of those where I was like, I sort of

478
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 3: got blown back in my seat, and so I was like, well,

479
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 3: that must mean Grace and McCall's coming back, because that's

480
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:19,119
Speaker 3: the only thing that could explain that that big of

481
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 3: a that was a six and a half point discrepancy

482
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 3: from what my line is. So I spent the next

483
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,680
Speaker 3: forty minutes researching, like doing the deepest of dives into

484
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,640
Speaker 3: Grays and McCall's status, and then when I came back

485
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:32,959
Speaker 3: and fell okay about my read to that it had

486
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,439
Speaker 3: already toggled to Troy minus seven and a half, and

487
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 3: so I was just hitting myself for not locking that

488
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 3: one in early. I did lock it in at seven

489
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:42,360
Speaker 3: and a half. It since moved to eight and a half.

490
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 3: So we're gonna end up with some line value on that,

491
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 3: especially because if McCall has not announced it back, which

492
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:49,159
Speaker 3: is what you would expect right now.

493
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:50,359
Speaker 2: I'll get into that in a second.

494
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:53,239
Speaker 3: If he's not, if he's not playing this game, this

495
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,199
Speaker 3: game has got to be Troy by double datas by

496
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 3: the time we get to kick, whether it's ten, whether

497
00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 3: it's ten and a half, or whether it's even closer

498
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,359
Speaker 3: to my line of basically eleven and a half. The

499
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 3: backup for Coastal Carolina has been just abysmal ever since

500
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 3: he took over. I thought it was going to be

501
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,679
Speaker 3: this Bryce Carpenter, that the kid who had been his

502
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,479
Speaker 3: backup before, But they've been playing this kid called Jarrett Guest.

503
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 2: Jarrett Guest in his.

504
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 3: Forty three attempts this year, I guess forty four point

505
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 3: two percent completions, three hundred two yards and a one

506
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,439
Speaker 3: to four td I and T ratio. Compare this with

507
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 3: Grayson McCall's career stats Grayson McCall twenty eight and three

508
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 3: as a starter, Grayson McCall has completed over seventy percent

509
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 3: of his passes as as a as a as a starter,

510
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,679
Speaker 3: so almost thirty percent more than the backup in his

511
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 3: admittedly smaller sample. But Grayson McCall seventy four to seven

512
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,399
Speaker 3: td I and T ratio, and he broke Mac Jones

513
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 3: his single season FBS record for passing efficiency last year.

514
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,160
Speaker 3: He also is a better runner than this guest kit.

515
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,360
Speaker 3: So not only does Coastal's running game get worse, their

516
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 3: passing game drops off the biggest of shelves. And so

517
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 3: you've seen the past couple of weeks when it's been

518
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 3: guessed that he started two games now it was against

519
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 3: Southern Miss and then last week against James Madison. Against

520
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 3: Southern Miss, he was not very good. They managed to

521
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 3: squeak by because Southern Miss struggles on offense. Coastal won

522
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 3: that game twenty six to three. Then the Coastal was

523
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 3: supposed to play Virginia. That game obviously got canceled because

524
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:21,640
Speaker 3: of the tragedy at UVA.

525
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,160
Speaker 2: But then last week Coastal just.

526
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 3: Gets annihilated by James Madison forty seven to seven. James

527
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 3: Madison has a really good run defense, so they shut

528
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 3: the lights out on that part of Coasto's offense, and

529
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,639
Speaker 3: the Jared Guest kid obviously cannot throw, and so I

530
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 3: mean Coastal just they were looking around like, where's Grayson McCall.

531
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 2: We can't do anything, you know, was basically what happened there.

532
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 3: That makes this one tough if Grayson McCall doesn't go,

533
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 3: because Troy has a really good defense and they can

534
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 3: do the same thing of shutting down your lights in

535
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,159
Speaker 3: the running game. If they do that and make Coastal

536
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 3: play one handed with the pass again, if it's Jared Guest. Again,

537
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 3: Coastal is really going to struggle to put up points

538
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 3: and Jared Guess will turn that ball over. So the

539
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 3: big question about this game will Grayson McCall return. So

540
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:12,120
Speaker 3: I did the deep dive. Like I said, I've gone

541
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 3: through the quotes, I've Zippruder the whole thing. So when

542
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 3: Coastal announced that Grayson McCall was going to be out

543
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:22,679
Speaker 3: with his foot injury, they said his recovery timeline is

544
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 3: three to six weeks. This game on Saturday, the Sunbelt

545
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 3: Championship will be played three weeks and three days to

546
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 3: the day after that was announced, So if Grayson McCall

547
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,640
Speaker 3: is back, it will be on the extreme front end

548
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 3: of that recovery timeline. Most people when it came out,

549
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 3: they reported it as he's going to be done at

550
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:45,880
Speaker 3: least until ball season, and we'll see if he can

551
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 3: come back during ball season. But again, we did have

552
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 3: that sort of finite recovery timeline that they had tossed out,

553
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 3: which this game technically would fall in again on the

554
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 3: front end, but it would fall in. During my deep dive,

555
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,159
Speaker 3: I did not find anything else that been stated about this.

556
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 3: I didn't see any you know, the coach coming out

557
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 3: and being like, yeah, he's gonna play, or expressing optimism

558
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 3: about that. It's gonna be one where we need to

559
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,880
Speaker 3: parse the quotes on the Coastal Carolina side the whole time,

560
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 3: or maybe they'll just come out early in the week

561
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 3: and and rule him out, or you know, go the

562
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 3: other way with it. But right now you would have

563
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 3: to consider Grayson McCall very very, very iffy to play

564
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 3: in this game.

565
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 2: Definitely less than fifty percent.

566
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 3: We'll see again, you know, we'll amend that as we

567
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 3: go on through the week based on the quotes and

568
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 3: the information that we're getting. But I had to bet

569
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 3: this game as though there's you know, a seventy five

570
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 3: percent chance or better that it's going to be guessed.

571
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 3: And if it's McCall, that would mean again, he's on

572
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 3: the front end of that recovery timeline from a foot injury.

573
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 3: So then in your head you're sort of modulating, Okay,

574
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,120
Speaker 3: you got to take away Grayson McCall's rushing utility now,

575
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 3: because if he's on the very front end of it,

576
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 3: he's not gonna be testing that foot anymore than he

577
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,920
Speaker 3: has to. Probably gonna be staying in the pocket, sort

578
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 3: of like bon Nex a couple of weeks ago, would

579
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 3: he'd been running so much, But then they play was

580
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,880
Speaker 3: a Utah or whoever they played a couple of weeks ago,

581
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 3: and he ended up being able to play, But he

582
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 3: didn't run at all in that game.

583
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 2: I don't even know if he had one.

584
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 3: He definitely did not have a design rushing attempt, but

585
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 3: I also don't think he scrambled at all. That's what

586
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,439
Speaker 3: I think you would get if Grayson McCall is playing

587
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 3: in this game. And then you would have to wonder

588
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 3: too about the driving of the throws. That was another

589
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 3: thing that we saw with Nicks a couple of weeks ago.

590
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 3: There was at least one interception. The interception at the

591
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 3: very end of the game. He tried to throw it

592
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,880
Speaker 3: across the field on a pass that he probably would

593
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 3: have hit if he was healthy, but he couldn't get

594
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 3: the oomph into it like usual, and by the time

595
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:38,719
Speaker 3: the ball finally got there not nearly as quick as

596
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 3: it would have been the Utah guy. It had been

597
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 3: telegraphed and it was on its way and he was

598
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 3: able to undercut it and intercept it. So whether we

599
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 3: get Grayson McCall at you know, eighty percent or eighty

600
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 3: five percent or less or whether what it seems like

601
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,479
Speaker 3: more likely it's going to be guessed.

602
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 2: I think there's value.

603
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 3: On Troy with this number being in this single digit

604
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 3: still and again if Grayson McCalls rolled out this thing

605
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 3: shooting Troy minus ten or above really really quickly.

606
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 1: How about the SEC Championship, which is your midday game

607
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 1: over on CBS. It's the biggest line currently that we

608
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 1: are seeing. As were recording this, looking like sixteen and

609
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,239
Speaker 1: a half coming into last week, this would have been

610
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 1: a number one, number five matchup.

611
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 2: That's big dog stuff.

612
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 1: Twelve and zero. Obviously, Georgia is undefeated in the SEC.

613
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 1: Of course, l suo six and two in the SEC

614
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 1: with a nine in three record, and this is one

615
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 1: of the five that you're jumping on thoughor you have

616
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:35,399
Speaker 1: a bet already preset on Sunday with this Georgia team.

617
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 3: With Georgia, yeah, with that line being under seventeen, I

618
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 3: expect the line to be seventeen or probably a little

619
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 3: bit above by kickoff. I think the fair line on

620
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 3: that is Georgia minus seventeen and a half. My adjusted

621
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 3: line is Georgia minus seventeen point two. So I mean,

622
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 3: that's important forming it, but I just feel like that

623
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 3: would be the objectively fair line. So for you know,

624
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 3: when it opens and it's beneath that I'm pulling that,

625
00:27:57,320 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 3: you know that I want that ticket. So I bought

626
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 3: it on Georgia minus sixteen and a half. And again

627
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 3: I do expect it to go up. So if you're

628
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 3: interested in Georgia and you see it beneath seventeen, whenever

629
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 3: you hear this, that's where I would I would buy

630
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 3: that ticket.

631
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 2: I'm happy in this game.

632
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 3: Whils we were talking about the past couple and we

633
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,400
Speaker 3: had to do the quarterback injuries and all this sort

634
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 3: of stuff. We don't have as many injury concerns in

635
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 3: this one.

636
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 2: Dogs.

637
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we definitely don't have any quarterback injuries in

638
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 3: this one. We also do not have the context of

639
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 3: a previous game played this year because these teams have

640
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 3: not yet played. So it's going to be interesting watching

641
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 3: these two teams feel each other out and stuff like that.

642
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 3: Last week for both of them, it was sort of

643
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 3: like Ohio State and Michigan.

644
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 2: The week before they played.

645
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 3: You know, so two weeks ago or whatever, when they

646
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 3: both had the overlook and they both absolutely overlooked the

647
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 3: Illinois and Michigan's case and Maryland and Ohio State's case,

648
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 3: and they both almost got beaten by doing it. LSU,

649
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:53,479
Speaker 3: they actually got beat by Texas A and M. Now

650
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 3: A and M had Devin Haught chainback, so you have

651
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 3: to give that for him. But LSU was very clearly

652
00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 3: overlooking that. And then A and M got the super

653
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 3: charger of getting their best player back, and so A

654
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 3: and M just just raced by them. And then Georgia

655
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 3: they were they clearly had overlooked too. Georgia Tech was.

656
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 3: Georgia Tech was only down ten to seven at halftime.

657
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 3: Georgia Tech, their quarterback was that Zach Gibson kid that

658
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:16,479
Speaker 3: we've been making fun of all season because he ran

659
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 3: out of bounce on the hail Mary attempt and he

660
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 3: was the guy who was keeping Georgia Tech close. Now,

661
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 3: Georgia Tech didn't end up pulling away if they scored

662
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 3: thirty seven consecutive points after they fell down early. They

663
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 3: ended up winning thirty seven to fourteen, but didn't even

664
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 3: come close to covering in that game.

665
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 2: I tossed out the last week results.

666
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 3: I don't think it's any sort of carryover, especially because

667
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 3: you know there was no key injury suffered on either

668
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 3: side or whatever. I just think, objectively, in a vacuum,

669
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 3: this line should be Georgia minus seventeen and a half,

670
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 3: and I don't think it should be beneath Georgia minus seventeen.

671
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 3: One thing potentially is I mean, this is sort of

672
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 3: a mindset thing, And so this is something I'm going

673
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 3: to be digging into into my handicapped week this week

674
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 3: in this game, probably as much or even more than

675
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 3: the on field matchup, because I can see these two

676
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: teams playing in my head, and I've seen these two

677
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,719
Speaker 3: teams play so many times that I know their strengths,

678
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 3: I know their weaknesses, I know everything else. Like that,

679
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 3: I'm curious about Georgia's mindset heading into this game in

680
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 3: regards to this, Georgia, even if they lose this game,

681
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 3: they're going to the college football playoff. So like I mean,

682
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 3: but you never want to say the SEC title game

683
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 3: doesn't mean anything, because of course it does.

684
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 2: But like the stakes are less for Georgia.

685
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 3: Than I think they would normally be, and so does

686
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 3: that play any sort of a factor or is this,

687
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 3: I mean the c SEC title game, right like, so

688
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 3: you know, is there going to be any of that?

689
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:38,719
Speaker 3: But we have seen in recent years teams in that

690
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 3: scenario have played a little bit down. So that's something

691
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 3: where I'm going to be looking into it pretty deeply

692
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 3: to try to get a gauge of what sort of

693
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 3: where Georgia's head is at heading into this one. And

694
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 3: then on the LSU side, the pop psychology thing that

695
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 3: you need to check in on is after last week,

696
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 3: you're wondering if this is a deflate spot for them,

697
00:30:56,920 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 3: right because heading into last week they they you know, like, well,

698
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 3: if there's chaos above us and we just hold serve,

699
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 3: we just beat A and M.

700
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 2: Now we're right on the doorstep.

701
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 3: And heck, we beat Georgia in that SEC title game,

702
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 3: the only game we will have played against them this year,

703
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 3: then we might be going to the CFP. That stuff's

704
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 3: all gone now with the A and M thing. So

705
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 3: because of that, does LSU played down in me or

706
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 3: is it the SEC title game they both play up?

707
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 3: It's probably a wash in the handicap, but it is

708
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 3: something that I'm going to be paying very close attention

709
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 3: to on both sides.

710
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 1: The Athletic American Championship. We've got a we got a

711
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 1: big matchup on that one. You seef, who's nine to

712
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 1: three going up against Tulane, who's ten and two, seven

713
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 1: to one in the conference. Tulane's currently a favorite. I

714
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 1: see a three point line. I know, I think your

715
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 1: early line. No, it looks like three is about the

716
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 1: same line that's putting out there. But there's a little

717
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 1: bit of an advantage. And this is the fifth and

718
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 1: final I believe, of the games that you have put

719
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 1: early tickets in on. So talk to me about Tulane.

720
00:31:57,920 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 1: Who has got your vote?

721
00:31:59,280 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 2: Yeah?

722
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 3: My my adjustment line on that game is two lane

723
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 3: minus four point four. The line came out beneath three,

724
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 3: so you know, I had to buy a ticket on it.

725
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 3: I didn't want to take the chance that that thing

726
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 3: would get to three, so I punched it in at

727
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 3: two lane minus two point five, and by the time

728
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 3: we even got on this record, it's two lane minus three.

729
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 2: Now.

730
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 3: Now, I don't expect like that thing still could potentially

731
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 3: toggle back to two and a half. I don't think

732
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 3: it's gonna I don't think that line this week will

733
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 3: get up to where my line is. I don't see

734
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 3: this thing get getting to four and a half. I

735
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 3: think you're gonna see it right around that three number

736
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 3: the whole time. Could it get batted to three and

737
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 3: a half, maybe, could have come back to the two

738
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 3: and a half maybe, but I think that's where you're

739
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 3: gonna see this the whole time. We've already seen this

740
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 3: game played once and it was in the same venue

741
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 3: when you ended up beating two Lane earlier this season

742
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 3: thirty eight to thirty one in New Orleans. This game

743
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 3: is in New Orleans. It's one of those conference championship

744
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 3: games that is hosted by the team with the higher

745
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 3: seed or whatever. So tu Lane ended up getting that

746
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 3: by beating Cincinnati. We were on Cincinnati last week on Friday.

747
00:32:58,040 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 3: They ended up winning that to get to this game,

748
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 3: And when we were talking about Tulane in Cincinnati, we

749
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 3: were talking about the motivation edge that was on the

750
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 3: Tulane side because Tulane hadn't in a million years won

751
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 3: their conference championship or even played in one of them.

752
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 3: They had never it was not the AAC When they

753
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 3: did it was in ninety eight with the Conference USA.

754
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 3: They have never appeared in an AAC title game. Tulane

755
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 3: badly wanted that. They were talking about that all last week.

756
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 3: We had to get into the AC title. We had

757
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 3: to get into the AAC title. They end up doing that.

758
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 3: And then sincey I didn't even know that, it came

759
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 3: out today that Luke Fickle went to Wisconsin. Those guys

760
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 3: must be pretty good at keeping secrets, because all these

761
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 3: other coaches out there, even the ones that aren't taking jobs,

762
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 3: they're thrown around and bandied about for all these different things.

763
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 3: I didn't see anything about fick call to Wisconsin, like

764
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 3: up until about twenty minutes before it was started to

765
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 3: be reported as quasi official, So that thing was just

766
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 3: dropped on us. It seems like Fickle did a pretty

767
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 3: good job, so, you know, as far as with the

768
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 3: team and with the rumors overall. So it doesn't seem

769
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 3: like that thing ended up affecting Cincinnati at all. Tulane

770
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 3: just was the better team, you know, if you watch

771
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 3: that game. Going back to the earlier season matchup, Like

772
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 3: I said, UCF won that game thirty eight to thirty one.

773
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 2: In New Orleans.

774
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 3: The Knights out gained the Greenway four hundred and sixty

775
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 3: eight to three hundred and ninety one, UCF controlled the

776
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 3: ball for ten more minutes of game clock, and they

777
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 3: also benefited. UCF did from a two to zero turnover

778
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 3: advantage in that game. The one good thing that two

779
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:22,359
Speaker 3: lane did well. Two lane did a couple of things

780
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 3: in that game that was decent. They held, they totally

781
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:27,799
Speaker 3: shut down the passing attack. UCF only threw for one

782
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:29,880
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty two yards, but a part of that

783
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,840
Speaker 3: was because UCF was getting their rushing yards at will.

784
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 3: UCF ended up running for three hundred and thirty six

785
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,720
Speaker 3: yards and four touchdowns. But here's where it gets interesting,

786
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 3: and here's where it gets important, and here's where we

787
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 3: get into the points of emphasis for two lane this week.

788
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 3: John Reeves Plumbley in that game or John, I'm sorry,

789
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 3: John Rice Plumbley. I'm trying to get better at it.

790
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:51,279
Speaker 3: John Rice Plumby, the UCF quarterback, the dual threat KAD.

791
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:53,959
Speaker 3: He'd been at Ole Mess before transferred over. He's also

792
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 3: a baseball player. He is extremely athletic. In fact, at

793
00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 3: the end of his time at All Miss he was

794
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 3: playing wide receiver. It's part of the reason why transferred

795
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 3: to UCF, because he wanted to get back into the game.

796
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 3: As a quarterback dual threat kid runs the Gus mels

797
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:08,720
Speaker 3: On offense really well and he has all the physical

798
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 3: tools for it. In that game against Tulane, he rushes

799
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 3: for one hundred and seventy six yards and two touchdowns.

800
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 3: Two Lane an enormous point of the point of emphasis

801
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 3: for their defense this week. How do we contain John

802
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 3: rice Plumbley better? How do we have a better containment

803
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 3: plan for that, whether it's the design runs, whether it's

804
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 3: the scrambles. The Tulane figured out how to take away

805
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 3: their passing attack the last time, which isn't that hard

806
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 3: because John rice Plumbley, the accuracy in the placement as

807
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 3: a thrower are down are the knocks on his game.

808
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 3: But obviously the good runner and meles On team are

809
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 3: always good at running to have a deep running back

810
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 3: stable as well, But they had the most problems with

811
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:46,400
Speaker 3: Rice Plumbley, and so they have to figure.

812
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:47,399
Speaker 2: Out a way to do that.

813
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 3: And then on the other side, so Tulane ends up

814
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:52,439
Speaker 3: throwing for one hundred plus more yards in that game

815
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 3: on one point seven more YPA.

816
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 2: Two lane's running game actually.

817
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,880
Speaker 3: Only averaged a half yard less per attempt than you

818
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 3: CFS did. In that bonkers game that the UCF had,

819
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:06,439
Speaker 3: but Tulane ran the ball exactly half as many times.

820
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 3: It was fifty four for UCF twenty seven for Tulane,

821
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,239
Speaker 3: in part because of the turnovers by tu Lane, in

822
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 3: part because in the conversion opportunities they didn't do as well,

823
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,360
Speaker 3: so UCF got the more opportunities, and then tu Lane's

824
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 3: defense in part because of Rice Plumblely what he was doing.

825
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:23,839
Speaker 3: They just could not keep them off of schedule and

826
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:26,839
Speaker 3: not force them to punt, so to UCF ends up

827
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 3: holding the ball for so much longer, et cetera. But

828
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 3: it was still a game until the very end, obviously

829
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:36,360
Speaker 3: finished by the one possession. One big thing here for

830
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 3: Tulane on offense, I think d thing for them on

831
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 3: offense with the game script early on, they're going to

832
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 3: want to go to Taij Spears a lot more than

833
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 3: they did in the last game. I think they wanted

834
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 3: to test it through the air a little bit more

835
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 3: and then the game script just got away from him.

836
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:51,799
Speaker 3: But in the last game, Taj Spears he runs for

837
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty yards on only eight attempts before

838
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:57,440
Speaker 3: Tulane had to just start throwing to try to get

839
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 3: back into that game Taj Spears. They want Taj Spears

840
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 3: attacking the UCU front. This is a fascinating game. But

841
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 3: like I said, just in a vacuum, having the line

842
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 3: at TWU lane minus four point four with my adjusted

843
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 3: line against where this line started out beneath three, that's

844
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 3: absolutely a smash spot on Tulane for me in this

845
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:18,920
Speaker 3: game where they could get revenge again. Haven't won a

846
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,359
Speaker 3: conference title since nineteen ninety eight. This is their first

847
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,359
Speaker 3: berth in the AAC title game. Absolutely, I'm taking that

848
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 3: beneath three. At three, I would still bet Tulane. Tulane

849
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 3: is going to be the side for me. But it's

850
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 3: a fascinating rematch and a fascinating handicap if.

851
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 1: You believe in weird signs that exist out there. On

852
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 1: my own sheet, i wrote Tulane versus Tulane equals to

853
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:42,839
Speaker 1: lane favorite. So all those Tulanes are just a little

854
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:44,359
Speaker 1: bit of a sign that you bet that. All right,

855
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 1: we got three more conference championships, the Mountain West Championship

856
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:51,960
Speaker 1: fres I'm sorry, yeah, yeah, I'm moving ahead of myself.

857
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 1: The Mountain West Championship, Fresno States, going up against Boise State.

858
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:57,400
Speaker 1: I was playing that one out in my head and

859
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 1: we hadn't even talked about it. Boise State looking at

860
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:02,360
Speaker 1: a four and a half line, Boise State eight O

861
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 1: in the Mountain West. They picked up eight of their

862
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 1: nine wins out of conference and Fresno State's seven and one.

863
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 1: They're eight and four on the year. So Boise State

864
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 1: with a little bit of a line. But I believe

865
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 1: the adjusted line is pretty close. We're under a full

866
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 1: point between your line and what is out there publicly,

867
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 1: So any thoughts on this one?

868
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, my adjusted line puts this one in the dead

869
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 3: zone of Boise State minus five point one, so right

870
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 3: where it is it, you know, I mean, like moving

871
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:29,399
Speaker 3: from four and a half to five is not really

872
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 3: a change. So, like, you know, I don't see a

873
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,800
Speaker 3: ton of line value just in a vacuum on it.

874
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:35,839
Speaker 2: It's it's a very interesting handicapped though.

875
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 3: Boise State is going to be one of those health check,

876
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 3: health status check teams this week. Last week, they were

877
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 3: without two of their starters heading into the game. Stephen Cobbs,

878
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 3: probably their best receiver on the team, and then Riley Smith,

879
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 3: they're starting tight end. They were both out and then

880
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,720
Speaker 3: during the game, one of their starting safeties, Tyrek Jones,

881
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 3: was carted off the field with his own injury. I

882
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 3: did look around at the Boise State b reporters over

883
00:38:58,200 --> 00:38:59,879
Speaker 3: the over the last you know, a little bit less

884
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 3: twenty four hours, trying to figure out the status is

885
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 3: of three these three guys. It looks like there's a

886
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 3: shot that they're gonna get Cobs and Smith back. I

887
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 3: would consider that Jones could highly doubtful from what I

888
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 3: had heard and what I had read. They have not

889
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 3: disclosed his injury, but it did not look good on

890
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 3: the field, and the beat reporters are sort of insinuating

891
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 3: that his season is over. We again, it's a health

892
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:21,879
Speaker 3: status check thing. We got to check back and see

893
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:24,879
Speaker 3: if we get more information on that that stuff. With

894
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 3: that out of the way, the way you set this

895
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 3: up was perfect.

896
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:29,880
Speaker 2: Both of these teams are on heaters.

897
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 3: Boise has won three straight, they've won and they've won

898
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 3: seven of eight, and their entire season flipped when number one,

899
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:39,400
Speaker 3: they fired their offensive coordinator and then brought back their

900
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:41,799
Speaker 3: old buddy, Dirk Cutter to run the offense. And then

901
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 3: when they kicked Hank Bachmeier, sort of the limited veteran

902
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,759
Speaker 3: noodle armed, heavy pocket passer guy who had been their

903
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 3: starter for four years. They showed him the door because

904
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 3: they had this fresh, exciting, enormous dual threat from Texas

905
00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 3: that they seem to have pulled out.

906
00:39:57,880 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 2: I don't know how they got this kid. They just

907
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 2: Taylon Green.

908
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 3: I'm talking about He's six foot six, like two hundred

909
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:06,800
Speaker 3: and twenty pounds, and he's an awesome runner. As a passer,

910
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 3: it's gonna take him some time, but he has shown

911
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 3: some flashes in that, but that's the part of his

912
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 3: game that legs a little bit. But obviously he's got

913
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 3: that enormous frame and the dual threat ability as well. Ever,

914
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 3: since they put Taylon Green in and they went with

915
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 3: Cutter as the offensive coordinator, their arrow is just shot

916
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 3: up and they become more like the Boise teams from

917
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 3: our past. So like you can basically toss out the

918
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:33,720
Speaker 3: first part of Boise's schedule and when Bachmeyer is the quarterback,

919
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 3: because there's a couple of games in there where literally

920
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:38,320
Speaker 3: they could not win because of the way that Bachmeyer played,

921
00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 3: specifically talking about the Oregon State game where I think

922
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:42,840
Speaker 3: Bachmeyer turned the ball over three or four times in

923
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 3: their first like five or six possessions, and by the

924
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 3: time they finally pulled the plug on him in that game,

925
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 3: they literally just could not come back in it. But

926
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 3: ever since Taylon Green took over, it has been a

927
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:53,799
Speaker 3: totally different story there. So that's the team that you

928
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 3: want to handicap. And then on the Fresno State side,

929
00:40:56,560 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 3: there's also contextual things to know about about the quarterback situation.

930
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 3: Fresno State is on a seven game winning streak coming

931
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 3: into this game. They started one and four and then

932
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:08,959
Speaker 3: they rip up the seven wins, but they struggled because

933
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 3: Jake Hayner got injured earlier this season and missed four

934
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 3: plus games with his ankle injury. That backup logan five

935
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 3: for Fresno was just a guy and Fresno devolved into

936
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 3: being just the team, not like the good Fresno that

937
00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:25,359
Speaker 3: we knew from from Hayter's time there earlier. But once

938
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 3: Hater's come back and Hater's gotten fully healthy, now they've

939
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 3: just become they become the Fresno of the past. So

940
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 3: Boise has become what they used to be. Fresno become

941
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 3: what they used to be. Fresno annihilated Wyoming, who is

942
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 3: going to a bowl thirty to nothing this past weekend,

943
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 3: so they proved the concept there. These two teams have

944
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:45,479
Speaker 3: played this year. In that game, Boise whip Presno State

945
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 3: forty to twenty. This was on October ninth and it

946
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,280
Speaker 3: was in Boise, where this game will also be being played.

947
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 3: But you have to add the enormous asterisk and put

948
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:56,840
Speaker 3: it in bold as well, and maybe neon flashing lights.

949
00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:59,440
Speaker 3: That was one of the games where Jake Hayner was injured,

950
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,520
Speaker 3: So like it's just really not relevant to.

951
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 2: I mean anything.

952
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:05,800
Speaker 3: The way that that game played out is not relevant

953
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 3: to the handicap of this game. Because Logan Fife was

954
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 3: the starter for Fresno. He played really really poorly that

955
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:14,439
Speaker 3: loss in that game drop Fresno State to one and four.

956
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 3: Fresno State has not lost since they are going to

957
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:20,720
Speaker 3: be chomping at the bit now to get a shot

958
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 3: at revenge on Boise on the same field now with

959
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 3: Haner coming back. But again Boise has gotten better and

960
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:30,479
Speaker 3: better and better as this Taylon Green kid gets better

961
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,960
Speaker 3: and better and better. Fascinating handicap coming up this week

962
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 3: on a game where the Margins seem to be very

963
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:40,240
Speaker 3: low on Sunday with the line opens the last two.

964
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:42,239
Speaker 1: Here, they're going to be vying for your attention and

965
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:45,759
Speaker 1: your time. Both are at the exact same time. First up,

966
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 1: it is the ACC Championship on ABC, Clemson going up

967
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 1: against North Carolina. Clemson ten and two, undefeated in the

968
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 1: ACC either eight to no North Carolina six and two.

969
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 1: Clemson is looking like an eight point favorite, and that

970
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 1: is a line that you've got. So is there any edge,

971
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 1: is there any vet or anything to wait for in

972
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:04,839
Speaker 1: the ACC Championship?

973
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 3: Now for me, right now, a couple of these games

974
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 3: that we've talked about, I actually had legitimate discrepancies on it,

975
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 3: and discrepancy is big enough where I was called to

976
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:15,360
Speaker 3: action on pulling the trigger on them early. But this game,

977
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:18,280
Speaker 3: my adjusted line, like you mentioned, it's it's Clemson minus

978
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 3: eight point two and the line open, you know right now,

979
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 3: it's at eight. I don't see any line value on that.

980
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 3: This game is in Charlotte, North Carolina. But don't go

981
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 3: thinking that North Carolina gets a home field because of that.

982
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 3: Because I was doing the map quest today and figuring

983
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 3: out the mind, they're exactly Charlotte is basically in the

984
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 3: midpoint between Clemson South Carolina and Chapel Hill North Carolina.

985
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 3: Both fans are going to have to drive an equal distance,

986
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 3: and obviously Clemson has a ton of experience in these

987
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 3: games and North Carolina has has a little taste of

988
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:50,880
Speaker 3: them as well. Not Drake may though their starter. My

989
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:52,880
Speaker 3: bigger issue with this game. Not only do I not

990
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 3: see you know, much line value on it yet, Well

991
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 3: we'll see what the market ends up doing with that,

992
00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 3: but it's also it is so hard to get your

993
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:01,280
Speaker 3: finger on the pulse of either of these two teams.

994
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 3: I don't trust either of them as far as I

995
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 3: can throw them, and it's very hard for me to

996
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 3: predict their their performances. North Carolina like they were this

997
00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 3: extremely flawed team, you know, with they have the awful

998
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 3: defense and they have a really strong, powerful offense. Drake

999
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 3: made their quarterback. He is a true freshman play. He

1000
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:21,439
Speaker 3: is going to be the first pick in whatever draft

1001
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 3: class he comes out. Kids just an absolute stud. He's

1002
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 3: either like at this point he might have dropped. I'm

1003
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 3: gonna have to check the update at PFF grades, but

1004
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 3: I would be stunned if he has dropped out of

1005
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 3: the top five overall PFF graded quarterbacks this year. He's

1006
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:34,760
Speaker 3: been in the top three all season long. The past

1007
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:37,399
Speaker 3: two weeks though, for North Carolina, they had gotten through

1008
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 3: all this other stuff.

1009
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 2: They'd started out nine to one, some of.

1010
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:42,359
Speaker 3: These games where they were these wild shootouts where North

1011
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 3: Carolina they always found a way to pull him out

1012
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:46,799
Speaker 3: at the end. And then you're looking at the at

1013
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:49,280
Speaker 3: their schedule and you're like, man, their last two games

1014
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 3: are pretty forgiving, you know. I mean, they hosted Georgia

1015
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 3: Tech and then they We're gonna play NC State and

1016
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,239
Speaker 3: NC State's third or fourth or fifth string quarterback or whatever,

1017
00:44:57,280 --> 00:45:00,080
Speaker 3: and it's like, man, North Carolina's gonna go in the

1018
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:02,360
Speaker 3: ACC title game eleven to one. Maybe we've got to

1019
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:05,080
Speaker 3: start talking about them as a potential CFPT, like a

1020
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:08,440
Speaker 3: dark course bit or whatever. And then UNC just absolutely

1021
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:10,840
Speaker 3: fell on their face against Georgia Tech in one of

1022
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 3: the more weird results of November. Georgia Tech wins that

1023
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:16,240
Speaker 3: went out right, and then last week you were hoping

1024
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:18,319
Speaker 3: that you saw a bounce back from North Carolina.

1025
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:19,399
Speaker 2: You really didn't get it.

1026
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 3: They did play better, you know that that game went

1027
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 3: into overtime and they essentially ended up losing a coin

1028
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 3: flip was thirty to twenty seven. But you have to

1029
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 3: bring in double overtime. You have to bring up the

1030
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 3: context though. NC State was using their four string quarterback

1031
00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:34,480
Speaker 3: in that game, so it's like, I mean, yeah, I

1032
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 3: know it went to overtime, I know it's close, but

1033
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:39,439
Speaker 3: UNC you really shouldn't be losing that game. And maybe

1034
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 3: they had to look ahead, but they can't really argue

1035
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:43,280
Speaker 3: that they had to look ahead for two straight weeks.

1036
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:44,759
Speaker 2: No one's vision goes that far.

1037
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:47,879
Speaker 3: And then as far as Clemson, they're coming off their

1038
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:52,799
Speaker 3: own embarrassing loss, they play South Carolina. South Carolina seemingly

1039
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 3: was in the biggest deflation spot of all time after

1040
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:58,959
Speaker 3: they had just annihilated Tennessee. Spencer Ratler told the media

1041
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 3: after that game, it was the big win and I

1042
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:03,880
Speaker 3: think even said program history, which which seems hyperbolic, but

1043
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,360
Speaker 3: you know, people were crying. The celebration went on in

1044
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 3: Columbia for days, and it's like, Okay, if there's ever

1045
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 3: a hangover spot, this is this is it for South Carolina.

1046
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:14,880
Speaker 3: Then South Carolina goes in and beats Clemson. Did not

1047
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 3: acquit the Clemson did not acquit themselves well in that game.

1048
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:20,240
Speaker 3: So what are you going to get from both these teams.

1049
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:23,759
Speaker 3: Clemson has just been inconsistent all season and they've gone up, down,

1050
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:26,279
Speaker 3: up down, Uptown and then North Carolina. They seem to

1051
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 3: have it before and then they've just lost it in

1052
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:30,840
Speaker 3: recent weeks. You're gonna have to figure out your gauge

1053
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:33,760
Speaker 3: on that thing. Meanwhile, just on the status check stuff.

1054
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:36,719
Speaker 3: Clemson's wide receiver Pol Collins, one of their starters. He

1055
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 3: had missed some time before. He was able to come

1056
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 3: back for the last game from his shoulder injury against

1057
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 3: South Carolina, but he was pulled in the first half.

1058
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:48,320
Speaker 3: He ended up finishing two catches for sixty five yards,

1059
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:50,799
Speaker 3: finished the game in street close. There must have been

1060
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,720
Speaker 3: an aggravation of it, or he wasn't feeling good, whatever,

1061
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 3: I'm not sure, but he did not play it in

1062
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:58,839
Speaker 3: the entire second half. That would seemingly make him very

1063
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 3: iffy to play in this game. But you're gonna have

1064
00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 3: to check on his status this week. The other thing

1065
00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:06,880
Speaker 3: I'll bring up r J Michins, starting Clemson safety. He

1066
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 3: is not going to be playing in this game until halftime.

1067
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:11,359
Speaker 3: He got ejected in the second half of the targeting call,

1068
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,560
Speaker 3: so by rule he has disqualified from the first half

1069
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:17,680
Speaker 3: of this game. We'll see both these teams. You have

1070
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:19,239
Speaker 3: to feel good about where you can get on them.

1071
00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 3: I don't see a ton of line value. This is

1072
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:22,799
Speaker 3: going to be a game my handicap heart all week

1073
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:23,880
Speaker 3: and we'll see what I come up with.

1074
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:28,839
Speaker 1: Finally, the Big Ten Championship. Michigan coming off that massive win.

1075
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 1: They're twelve to zho nine to zero in the Big Ten,

1076
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 1: going up against Perdue, who's six and three in the

1077
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:35,680
Speaker 1: Big Ten, eight and four record, the second highest line.

1078
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:37,960
Speaker 1: It was actually kind of floating right around that other

1079
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:40,719
Speaker 1: sixteen and a half. It's moved to sixteen, so it's

1080
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:43,320
Speaker 1: right there essentially the same thing as a Big line.

1081
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:47,120
Speaker 1: But this is another big win for Michigan. Is there

1082
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:49,319
Speaker 1: a bet here for you on this, bad Boy?

1083
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 3: I have not bet this yet because I'm waiting to

1084
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 3: see on the Blake Korm status. Blake Korm in that

1085
00:47:54,200 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 3: Ohio State game, he did play, and he said he

1086
00:47:56,120 --> 00:47:57,880
Speaker 3: was going to play, so I mean, like that was

1087
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:00,319
Speaker 3: good to see, but he only had two carr for

1088
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 3: like four or five yards or something or six yards,

1089
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:05,360
Speaker 3: and then he spent the rest of the game on

1090
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:08,200
Speaker 3: on the sidelines. We need a status check on that.

1091
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 3: And Jim Harbaugh last week would literally tell us nothing.

1092
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 3: Didn't tell us anything about Donovan Edwards either, And Donovan

1093
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:17,400
Speaker 3: Edwards is the guy that stole that show, you know,

1094
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 3: sort of like Hassan Haskins did last year. That was

1095
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 3: more predictable because Hassan Haskins had been awesome the entire season.

1096
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 3: But Edwards, you know, he's been RB two to to

1097
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 3: blake and play Korum has been you know where at

1098
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:30,920
Speaker 3: least was heading into last week, was a top five

1099
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:33,759
Speaker 3: Heisman contender. Edwards has been very good, mostly as the

1100
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 3: pass catching back for Michigan and then of course spelling

1101
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:39,200
Speaker 3: Korum as well. But he got sort of thrust into

1102
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:42,040
Speaker 3: that lead role coming up the injury. Like I said,

1103
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 3: the week before, he had missed the game against Illinois

1104
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:49,040
Speaker 3: and Edwards hit this ground running Edwards had a thumb

1105
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 3: injury where he had to wrap the hand up.

1106
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 2: I was wondering heading into the that game.

1107
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:54,960
Speaker 3: Is that going to affect him, you know, in his

1108
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 3: utility as the receiving back or you know, ball security

1109
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:00,840
Speaker 3: or anything like that, or can they give him the

1110
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 3: usage that they would want to if Korm can't handle

1111
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 3: his regular usage or whatever. But Edwards looked to awesome.

1112
00:49:07,719 --> 00:49:10,760
Speaker 3: He ran for over two hundred yards. The two long

1113
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:13,800
Speaker 3: touchdown runs that he had against Ohio State was basically

1114
00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:16,239
Speaker 3: would put the two nails in the coffin of Ohio State.

1115
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:18,760
Speaker 3: You could tell after I mean that both the crowd

1116
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 3: just it totally took all the air out of there,

1117
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:23,360
Speaker 3: and then you didn't have the energy there. This was

1118
00:49:23,400 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 3: even after the first one. But then the Ohio State

1119
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 3: team too, just seemed totally deflated after those and then

1120
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:34,320
Speaker 3: Michigan of course completes their blowout of them. Edwards finished

1121
00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 3: two hundred and sixteen yards and those two aforementioned touchdowns.

1122
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 3: The other thing you got to mention about Michigan, JJ

1123
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:42,840
Speaker 3: McCarthy just played awesome. See his game seems to be

1124
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:44,960
Speaker 3: going up and up and up. Obviously this is his

1125
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 3: first year as a starter. He just absolutely shreded Ohio

1126
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:51,319
Speaker 3: State two hundred and sixty three passing yards four total touchdowns.

1127
00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:54,360
Speaker 3: So we need to check on the status of Korum

1128
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 3: coming into this game. Looks like Edwards is more than

1129
00:49:57,160 --> 00:49:59,240
Speaker 3: good to go based on what we saw last week.

1130
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 3: On the per side, they also had a running back

1131
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:04,839
Speaker 3: health thing. Coming into last last week, They're starting running

1132
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:07,400
Speaker 3: back Devin Maccaby had missed time before that he was

1133
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 3: able to come back Maccaby against Indiana from this head

1134
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:13,600
Speaker 3: injury that he had suffered against Northwestern the game before.

1135
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:16,799
Speaker 3: He ran in that game ninety nine yards and a

1136
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:20,399
Speaker 3: touchdown on fifteen carries. So Maccabee looks looks healthy for them.

1137
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 3: I did, even even though my just A line is

1138
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:25,279
Speaker 3: two and a half points above where the market is

1139
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 3: on this, I credited Purdue with just a very slight.

1140
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:30,280
Speaker 2: Home field advantage.

1141
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 3: It was less than a point, but I did credit

1142
00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 3: Purdue just a little bit because obviously this game is

1143
00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:37,600
Speaker 3: being played in Indianapolis, it's closer to the Purdue side.

1144
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 3: But of course Michigan has a lot of experience in

1145
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:42,319
Speaker 3: these spots as well. And Michigan, of course, you have

1146
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 3: to mention they have one of the best traveling fan

1147
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:45,360
Speaker 3: bases in all of America.

1148
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:47,319
Speaker 2: So it's not going to be lopsided by any means

1149
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:48,399
Speaker 2: on the fan thing.

1150
00:50:48,440 --> 00:50:51,400
Speaker 3: In fact, Michigan may end up having more, but Purdue

1151
00:50:51,400 --> 00:50:52,759
Speaker 3: is not going to have to travel as far and

1152
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:55,319
Speaker 3: it's going to be a familiar surrounding for them. I'm

1153
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:57,759
Speaker 3: showing the line value a little bit on Michigan right now,

1154
00:50:57,800 --> 00:51:00,719
Speaker 3: but again I need to see what quorm status. I also,

1155
00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 3: very similarly to the Georgia LSU handicap that we were

1156
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:05,640
Speaker 3: talking about, I also need to check in on the

1157
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:09,480
Speaker 3: Michigan their mindset heading into this game, visa v the

1158
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:11,439
Speaker 3: idea that even if they lose, they.

1159
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:12,880
Speaker 2: Are going to the college football playoff.

1160
00:51:13,040 --> 00:51:15,280
Speaker 3: And again, just like I mentioned with Georgia, that doesn't

1161
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:17,640
Speaker 3: mean that they're just gonna, you know, roll the ball

1162
00:51:17,640 --> 00:51:19,640
Speaker 3: out like sort of like Utsa was doing last week

1163
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 3: or a couple of those teams in those spots. You

1164
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 3: still want to win your conference title, of course, but

1165
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:26,960
Speaker 3: are they going to hold anything back? Are they going

1166
00:51:27,040 --> 00:51:29,080
Speaker 3: to go just a little bit more vanilla with their

1167
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 3: game plans not to put that on tape? Are there

1168
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:34,240
Speaker 3: any players that are you know, eight, you know, eighty

1169
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:37,239
Speaker 3: five ninety percent that maybe you withhold in this one

1170
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:39,800
Speaker 3: because you're you're sort of the heavy favorites in this spot.

1171
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 3: Those are a couple of things to look at there,

1172
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:45,640
Speaker 3: But I'm going to dig into Michigan psychology with regards

1173
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:48,320
Speaker 3: to that, and and well we'll handicap the heck.

1174
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:50,000
Speaker 2: Out of this one. But I'm showing just a little

1175
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:51,319
Speaker 2: bit of value on Michigan right now.

1176
00:51:51,680 --> 00:51:55,239
Speaker 1: Free picks, player props, breakdowns, you got it. When you're

1177
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:58,759
Speaker 1: with Thor Nystrom and Mike Farrell. That's Game Day Live

1178
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings. Is it this last Saturday or you

1179
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:04,760
Speaker 1: guys going to be going through the month of December?

1180
00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:06,040
Speaker 1: Is this the last one coming up?

1181
00:52:06,280 --> 00:52:06,360
Speaker 2: So?

1182
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:09,520
Speaker 3: This is our last live Saturday morning show of the

1183
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:12,120
Speaker 3: season where we're gonna go from like we always do

1184
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:15,600
Speaker 3: ten ten am Eastern to eleven thirty am Eastern, but

1185
00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:18,680
Speaker 3: then after that for Boll season. I don't even know

1186
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:20,040
Speaker 3: if I can if I can say this because I

1187
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:21,879
Speaker 3: don't even know if if anyone's announced this, but hecke

1188
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 3: you know, I share everything with the listeners out there,

1189
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:26,279
Speaker 3: so I'll share this with you. We will be doing

1190
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:28,200
Speaker 3: it for Boll season. It's not going to be on

1191
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 3: the Saturday mornings because you have the weird staggered stuff

1192
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:32,799
Speaker 3: with the ball schedule where it's on the week day

1193
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 3: and stuff like that. But we've set out a schedule

1194
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:38,319
Speaker 3: that will deliver you guys multiple episodes of that with

1195
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:41,360
Speaker 3: me and Mike live going through the whole gamut of

1196
00:52:41,480 --> 00:52:43,880
Speaker 3: the bowl games one by one, so we'll have several

1197
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:46,839
Speaker 3: of those throughout. We will release that when we got it.

1198
00:52:47,239 --> 00:52:50,120
Speaker 1: Awesome, awesome stuff. There you go, the final early look

1199
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:52,359
Speaker 1: of the season. You can find him on Twitter at

1200
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:54,920
Speaker 1: four KU. Can you find me on Twitter at is

1201
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:57,440
Speaker 1: it the Welsh and Thor and everybody. Thank you so

1202
00:52:57,520 --> 00:53:00,000
Speaker 1: much for letting me come in talk some college football.

1203
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:00,920
Speaker 2: Getting some betting.

1204
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 1: Action in this show has been invaluable and I hope

1205
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:05,279
Speaker 1: you guys have enjoyed it. Make sure that you subscribe

1206
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:07,319
Speaker 1: to the Betting Pros channel so you're notified of all

1207
00:53:07,360 --> 00:53:10,680
Speaker 1: the stuff that is going on over here, and make

1208
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:12,719
Speaker 1: sure you lock in on Saturday for the final one

1209
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 1: with Thor Mike for Thor, I am Welsh. You guys

1210
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:18,640
Speaker 1: have a fantastic week and enjoy the conference championships.