WEBVTT - September Return to Normal Proves Elusive 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.400 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carole Masser and I'm 0:00:04.440 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanibek. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:09.799 you the latest news from the world to business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.600 plus technology, politics, economics, all furnishing the power of Business 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:17.119 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:20.000 analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.200 Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.120 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.840 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:32.680 YouTube search Bloomberg Clobal News. Well, two explosions we know 0:00:33.280 --> 0:00:37.640 outside of Cobbles International Airport. We've talked about deaths Americans 0:00:37.720 --> 0:00:41.320 as well of as Afghanis. Let's get an update on 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:44.559 this continuously unfolding situation in crisis with us. Right now 0:00:44.600 --> 0:00:47.840 is Bloomberg News National Security Team Leader Bill Ferries, along 0:00:47.880 --> 0:00:50.600 with Katherine Zimmerman, fellow at the Conservative Thing Tank American 0:00:51.040 --> 0:00:54.400 Enterprise Institute. She covers terrorism and foreign and defense policy 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:56.720 both on the phone in d C. And we should 0:00:56.760 --> 0:00:59.560 remind you that we are awaiting a briefing from the 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:01.800 White House as well. As the Pentagon as soon as 0:01:01.800 --> 0:01:04.320 they do begin we will take you there live in 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:07.280 the meantime. Bill, thanks for being here with Tim and myself. 0:01:07.640 --> 0:01:09.680 What's the latest that we know in terms of the 0:01:09.760 --> 0:01:14.520 situation in Afghanistan as well as the casualties. Well, we 0:01:14.640 --> 0:01:18.560 know that several US troops have been killed in the blast, 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:21.920 and we believe more wounded. And obviously, um the Taliban 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:25.639 have said that there were at least thirteen Afghans killed 0:01:25.720 --> 0:01:28.680 and several dozen wounded in the blast, and I think 0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:31.600 we all expect those um, those numbers to rise in 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:35.039 the coming hours. We have had reports that planes are 0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:38.600 still leaving the Kabo airport, but obviously, UH, this this 0:01:38.920 --> 0:01:42.440 UH puts a big hold on efforts by US and 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:47.880 NATO forces to get more people out of the country. UM, 0:01:48.000 --> 0:01:50.360 and we're expecting it, as he said, a White House 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:53.080 and Pentagon briefing, within the next thirty minutes to an 0:01:53.080 --> 0:01:55.080 hour here, so we should get an update on how 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:58.320 this is affecting UH, what the latest numbers are, and 0:01:58.320 --> 0:02:01.360 and how this may affect President Item's plans to withdraw 0:02:01.440 --> 0:02:03.320 by August thirty one. Hey, Bill, what do we know 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:07.400 about potentially the group or groups behind this and their 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:12.560 relationship with the Taliban. Well, the Taliban, the Taliban themselves 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:14.880 have come out and said that they think that one 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:18.880 of the ISIS offshoots is possibly responsible for this. They 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:22.400 say they're investigating. I mean, these lasts happened in you know, 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:26.000 outside of the airport perimeter, in the area now controlled 0:02:26.000 --> 0:02:29.640 by the Taliban UH And throughout the conflict over the 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:34.200 last decade, you have had that Taliban UH, You've had 0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:37.880 Taliban bombings in Afghanistan. You've had ISIS bombings in Afghanistan, 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:41.760 and some of those ISIS bombings have been against Taliban targets. 0:02:41.800 --> 0:02:45.440 So it's a it's been a complicated picture there. But 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:48.600 the Taliban and ISIS have been at each other at 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:50.800 the same time they go I have been going after 0:02:50.880 --> 0:02:55.080 foreign forces. Katherine, want to bring you into the conversation here. Um, 0:02:55.320 --> 0:02:59.080 you cover terrorism, you cover foreign defense policy. Was any 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:04.079 withdrawal American U S forces going to be difficult from Afghanistan? 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:07.800 No matter what the timing, it was certainly going to 0:03:07.840 --> 0:03:10.959 be difficult. But as we look back at how the 0:03:11.120 --> 0:03:13.040 withdraw always done, there was a lot that could have 0:03:13.080 --> 0:03:16.440 been done better. Well, why don't you expand upon that? 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:22.120 We were looking at a situation where the US drew 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:28.040 down in a matter of months troops to next nothing, uh, 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:31.760 and we still had American civilian personnel on the ground, 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:35.160 and we're really placing our hands on in the our 0:03:35.240 --> 0:03:37.480 safe game in the hands of the Afghan National Security 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:42.680 forces UM and those, as we well know, collapsed very rapidly. 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:45.760 But what was missed in all of that is, of course, 0:03:45.800 --> 0:03:49.440 the enabling capabilities that the United States provided the Afghans 0:03:49.760 --> 0:03:54.080 that were yanked as the United States pulled back. Well, 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:56.480 we certainly can't go back in time. And the deadline 0:03:56.480 --> 0:03:59.200 that's looming right now is August thirty one, and that's 0:03:59.200 --> 0:04:01.040 the date that the United States has agreed to with 0:04:01.120 --> 0:04:05.400 the Taliban to remove the American presence there. I'm wondering how, Katherine, 0:04:05.560 --> 0:04:09.640 what happened there today not changes that deadline, but changes 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:12.560 what happens over the next few days and the thousands 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:15.160 of people who still remain in Afghanistan that need to 0:04:15.200 --> 0:04:20.120 get out. The attack today will certainly make it more 0:04:20.200 --> 0:04:22.080 challenging for the people who need to get out of 0:04:22.120 --> 0:04:26.120 Afghanistan to get out. The United States had already changed 0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:29.440 how it was bringing Americans to the airport because of 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:34.880 fears that the soft target, the crowds unprotected outside of 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:39.200 the airport perimeter, would be targeted by the Islamic State 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:42.680 Corps one as we saw UH, and that had certainly 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:45.880 slowed down how how we're getting people to the airport. 0:04:46.320 --> 0:04:49.040 And so if we're looking at the August thirty one deadline, 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:50.640 there are things that we need to keep in mind. 0:04:51.040 --> 0:04:53.760 And the first is that our European partners have already 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:57.680 said that they're basically pacing down evacuations because the U. S. 0:04:57.760 --> 0:05:01.360 Militaries won't be able to promise security. Uh. And certainly, 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:05.480 as we're looking at the security situation today, even the 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:08.800 security of the US military brooch was very kind of 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:15.599 uh tenuous bill ferries, you know, with this situation rapidly deteriorating, 0:05:16.400 --> 0:05:20.160 what can we expect? Are you hearing anything from uh 0:05:20.200 --> 0:05:23.120 the from U S. Officials when it comes to potentially 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:27.640 upping once again the amount of American troops in Afghanistan. 0:05:29.400 --> 0:05:32.240 We're not hearing anything like that. I think, UM, I 0:05:32.279 --> 0:05:35.159 think there's gonna be a calculus uh at the White 0:05:35.200 --> 0:05:39.600 House about you know. UH. They've been saying for days 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:43.080 that the longer troops are there, the more the more 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:46.560 at risk they are, the more dangerous the situation becomes. 0:05:46.680 --> 0:05:49.280 UM So I wouldn't. I wouldn't for now expect them 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:53.359 to stick with that August thirty first deadline to try 0:05:53.400 --> 0:05:56.880 to get everybody out. And but I agree, it's made 0:05:56.880 --> 0:06:00.000 it much more difficult to try to get any Americans 0:06:00.000 --> 0:06:03.240 who remain in Afghanistan who wants to leave. Uh And 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:05.760 we really don't know the universe of those people, whether 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:09.760 it's five hundred or more. Um, but it will make 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:12.600 it much more difficult to get them out, especially if 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:16.520 they're not already in cobble. All Right, we're going to 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:18.680 continue this conversation. Bill. I know you've got a lot 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:20.919 on your play today. UM So we're gonna let you go. 0:06:20.960 --> 0:06:23.880 Bill Ferries, he's National Security team leader at Bloomberg News, 0:06:23.920 --> 0:06:27.280 keeping us up to date on the moving situation in Afghanistan. 0:06:27.360 --> 0:06:30.160 Joiningist on the phone from Washington, d C. We're gonna 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:32.680 come back though with Katherine Zimmerman. She's fellow at the 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:36.440 American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank based there in 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:39.520 the nation's capital. She's joining us from d C. You 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:42.000 are listening to Bloomberg Business Week Carol Master along with 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:45.080 Tim Stanivik in our Interactive Broker studio. A reminder that 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:47.080 we are expected to hear a briefing from the White 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:49.920 House as well as the Pentagon on Afghanistan. We will 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:52.279 take you their live as soon as it happens. This 0:06:52.440 --> 0:06:57.400 is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol 0:06:57.440 --> 0:07:01.880 Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim sten It on Bloomberg Radio, 0:07:02.240 --> 0:07:05.719 crossing the Bloomberg terminal headline from the Associated Press. Eleven 0:07:05.760 --> 0:07:10.520 marines and a Navy medic killed in the Afghanistan. Uh, 0:07:10.640 --> 0:07:14.040 those explosions in that country. So continuing to get some 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:16.520 updates Tim on the situation there, and we'll continue to 0:07:16.520 --> 0:07:18.320 bring those updates as soon as we get them. As 0:07:18.320 --> 0:07:20.720 Carol mentioned moments ago, we are waiting a press conference 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:22.960 from the White House and also one at the Pentagon. 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:24.520 Will bring those to you live when we get them 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:26.960 as well. In the meantime, let's get back to Katherine Zimmerman, 0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:29.840 a fellow at the Conservative American Enterprise Institute, joining us 0:07:29.920 --> 0:07:33.680 on the phone from Washington, d C. Katherine, Uh, I 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:35.920 want to try to understand from you to what extent 0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:39.560 you think the President Biden's hands were tied at least 0:07:39.600 --> 0:07:42.920 in the UH withdrawal, not necessarily the timing, but the 0:07:42.920 --> 0:07:45.440 fact that the United States had to withdraw from Afghanistan, 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:49.160 given that the U. S And Taliban signed a deal 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:53.600 UH back in the early part of in order to 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:56.440 end this war, and for the US to ultimately withdraw, 0:07:56.560 --> 0:08:00.840 that of course happened under the Trump administration. President Biden 0:08:00.880 --> 0:08:03.400 made his own decision to withdraw, and I think that 0:08:03.400 --> 0:08:05.679 that has been missed in all of this. The Trump 0:08:05.720 --> 0:08:09.440 administration did sign a deal, but the Taliban was not 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:13.000 upholding its end of the deal. And the two key 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:17.120 points that the Taliban weren't executing was breaking ties with 0:08:17.160 --> 0:08:20.320 al Qaeda. We actually saw the Taliban continuing to support 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:23.480 al Qaeda and al Qaeda spreading in the country after 0:08:23.600 --> 0:08:25.880 it had signed the deal. And the second point was 0:08:25.920 --> 0:08:30.160 reducing the level of violence inside of Afghanistan. And certainly 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:35.560 the idea was to make space for a political negotiation 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:39.439 that would have allowed some sort of transitionary government, and 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:43.640 the Taliban simply escalated and we know the impact of 0:08:43.679 --> 0:08:48.560 that now. So, Catherine, what would you say the the 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:50.599 what would you rather have had the Biden administration do 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:56.120 when it when it entered office in January of this year. 0:08:56.240 --> 0:08:59.400 Would you like to have seen US troops stay there? 0:09:01.000 --> 0:09:04.760 I have advocated for the ongoing light footprints that the 0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:06.959 US had gotten to by the by the point that 0:09:07.000 --> 0:09:11.920 the Biden administration took office, we had troops inside of Afghanistan, 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:14.480 which sounds like a lot except when you look at 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:17.560 what they were doing, which was primarily supporting the Afghan 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:20.640 national security forces who were doing the brunch of the 0:09:20.679 --> 0:09:24.000 fighting against the Taliban. And then, of course the part 0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:27.120 that matters for the United States, our troops were the 0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:31.200 ones with the high end counter terrorism capabilities going after 0:09:31.400 --> 0:09:34.960 the Taliban, uh and and al Kaina and Islamic state 0:09:34.960 --> 0:09:39.079 elements that that we're posing terror threats. But I want 0:09:39.120 --> 0:09:42.480 to go back to Katherine. You know, there are so 0:09:42.520 --> 0:09:47.680 many uh different groups within Afghanistan. Um. I think fourteen 0:09:47.679 --> 0:09:51.440 different ethnicities. Uh, There's just so many different groups. Would 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:55.679 it have been impossible to ultimately get an ideal situation 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:59.000 there um and with the Taliban kind of following through 0:09:59.160 --> 0:10:01.800 on its commitment and in order for the US to 0:10:01.840 --> 0:10:07.080 withdraw anytime soon. Yes, I think when the Trump administration 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:10.400 negotiated the deal, it was very clear that there wasn't 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:13.240 going to be a political resolution for the reasons that 0:10:13.280 --> 0:10:17.520 you lay out, and the fact fundamentally that the United 0:10:17.559 --> 0:10:22.600 States had shifted years prior from engaging on on the 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:26.120 the ongoing civil war in Afghanistan. And I think that's 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:28.800 something that we don't actually separate in our heads enough. 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:32.600 Is the counter terrorism fight that the United States has 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:36.480 an Afghanistan and the civil war against the Taliban that 0:10:36.520 --> 0:10:41.360 was ongoing. You understand this situation, You understand this region 0:10:41.520 --> 0:10:44.320 of the world. Thomas Friedman of the New York Times recently, 0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:47.720 writing in an opinion piece, you know, but citing how 0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:52.040 more than seventy Afghanistan's population is under twenty five years old, 0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:56.040 Most of them, he writes, know nothing about the Taliban um. 0:10:56.080 --> 0:11:05.200 How will that create the future of Afghanistan. It's a 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:07.640 great question. And as we're looking at what the future 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:11.079 of Afghanistan looks like, you know, the Taliban have taken 0:11:11.120 --> 0:11:14.800 power again. But the Afghanistan today is are different from 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:18.400 the one twenty years ago. And as you mentioned, the 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:21.840 most of the population have very different expectations than the 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:25.920 population did when the Taliban was in power in through 0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:30.480 two thousand one. So there are much higher demands on 0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:34.840 any government of Afghanistan today where where people in the 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:39.040 urban centers in Kabul and and other major cities do 0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:43.160 expect government service to be provided. So that's one of 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:47.160 the reasons why we we're watching the Taliban's actions carefully 0:11:47.520 --> 0:11:50.480 and why the Taliban are so worried about the economic 0:11:50.559 --> 0:11:54.400 collapse that has followed their takeover of the country. What 0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:57.560 kind of economic pressure can the international community put on 0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:02.480 the Taliban in order to use sticks more so than carrots, 0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:04.880 or perhaps even carrots to push the Taliban in a 0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:09.120 direction that the Afghan people want. We've already seen the 0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:12.280 international community try to use some of those those sticks 0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:16.560 where of course, UH, the I m F has has 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:20.440 kind of frozen ongoing relations until the situation with the 0:12:20.480 --> 0:12:24.520 Afghan government is settled. UH, and the amount of assistance 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:27.240 that has been provided by the international community to Afghanistan 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:30.240 has helped to prop up the government that was in power, 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:34.559 and so almost all Western nations have frozen that for 0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:38.080 the time being. My big concern is that we are 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:42.200 looking at a growing humanitarian situation, and of course there 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:46.640 is a careful balance between our national security and UH, 0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:51.520 you know, helping precipitate a humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, and 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:56.079 so you know what we might see is humanitarian assistance 0:12:56.240 --> 0:13:00.240 needing to flow into Afghanistan, which the Taliban was only 0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:02.600 used to build their own legitimate say, Katherine, thank you 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:04.959 so much for being with us. Katherine Zimmerman, fellow at 0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:07.959 the American Enterprise Institute, with us on the phone from 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:11.760 d C. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol 0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:16.240 Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. 0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:20.240 The international cover Bloomberg Business Week this week. It's about 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:24.200 September next month. How it promised a return to normal, Tim, 0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:26.720 But we're just a few days away and it's not 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:28.720 gonna happen. It's not I was gonna say you got 0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:31.400 to travel outside of the United States, perhaps North America 0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:34.360 to see this cover, but you actually don't, because it's 0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:37.120 available at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week, and also 0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:39.320 available of course on the Bloomberg termittal. It is a 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:42.319 fantastic cover to the international edition. It's a calendar of September. 0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:44.760 All these dates are circled but scribbled out. And that's 0:13:44.800 --> 0:13:47.840 exactly how I think a lot of employees and certainly 0:13:48.000 --> 0:13:50.360 offices and managers feel about the return to work. We're 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:52.880 still dealing with the health pandemic, and you know, Afghanistan, 0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:55.880 that crisis also reminding us that things are not normal 0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:57.920 as well. So let's get into it. The story by 0:13:57.960 --> 0:14:00.400 Bloomberg News US economic reporter read pick her to m. 0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:04.160 Bloomberg US economy reporter Olivia Rockman read she joins us 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:06.640 now on the phone in Washington. It is such a 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:09.440 smart story. Read. We really thought, if you go back 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:12.760 six eight months, we thought September it was going to 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:17.240 be quote unquote normal. Yes, so thank you so much 0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:20.360 for having me. So Yeah. The idea for this story 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:24.240 mainly came from the fact that back several months ago, 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:26.600 I think May is kind of when I think of 0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:30.880 it as being the main moment where um, we were 0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:34.120 all kind of looking to September and the fall more 0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:37.360 generally to be um a little bit more normal and 0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:39.920 at least a turning point point of some kind for 0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:42.640 the US economy. And and back then, I mean, with 0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:46.280 the data that we had it it looks like vaccinations 0:14:46.280 --> 0:14:49.040 were rising rapidly, and it looks like that we'd reached 0:14:49.120 --> 0:14:54.160 that seventy five threshold of vaccination of the population in 0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:57.280 September it looks like schools, we're going to be back 0:14:57.320 --> 0:15:00.720 in person and be normal. Um end A lot of 0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:03.920 companies firmed up their return to office dates, and I 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:07.040 think the whole point of this story was pointing out 0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:10.840 that that is not the circumstances that we're dealing with 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:14.720 as we're rolling into September now. Insteada has thrown a 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:17.400 huge risk in that right, companies, as you write, like Alphabet's, 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:20.440 Google black Rock, they've pushed returned to office states to October. 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:25.160 Delta has disrupted already strained supply chains, China temporarily close 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:27.560 to terminal at one of the world's busiest ports to 0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:31.280 quarantine dock workers. That delayed shipments of materials that businesses 0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:34.000 and factories needs. So take us into the economic impact 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:36.440 of this. The economic implications of this, we talked a 0:15:36.440 --> 0:15:37.960 little bit about them a few minutes ago. If we're 0:15:38.000 --> 0:15:40.200 not you know, then just very minorly right, if we're 0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:44.400 not commuting in, we're not hitting tolls and in municipalities, 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:47.760 were not spending money on lunches outside of the office. 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:50.720 But beyond that, what are the bigger implications? So I 0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:53.560 think the bigger implications for now is that we don't 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:56.720 really know. I mean, we won't start getting a lot 0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:59.440 of the data that starts to show us, um what 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:02.720 Aug looks like until we get into September. And we 0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:05.720 also don't know if the delta wave is going to 0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:09.520 follow a similar kind of peak as the UK did, 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:12.040 or if it will follow a different path. Um. But 0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:14.320 we pointed this out in the story. But some of 0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:17.560 the high frequency indicators are starting to show some signs 0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:20.680 that consumer behavior is changing a little bit. And I 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:24.960 think when we think about the impact of consumer behavior changing, UM, 0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:27.320 we need to keep in mind of what the profile 0:16:27.480 --> 0:16:31.400 for economic growth is right now. So for a huge 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:34.320 portion of the pandemic from consumer spending was based on 0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:39.440 goods UM. But now consumer spending is um wholly dependent 0:16:39.600 --> 0:16:42.880 on the snap back and services spending, and even just 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:47.520 some changes in consumers behavior not dining out as much, 0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:50.520 not traveling, those kind of things that we we thought 0:16:50.600 --> 0:16:54.720 we're gonna continue, um really hot into the fall. Um 0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:59.080 that could have UM pretty big implications, all right. So 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:04.720 as we all keep crossing our fingers and our legs 0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:07.560 and our arms in hopes of getting back to normal 0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:10.960 sooner rather than later, what visibility do we have because 0:17:11.200 --> 0:17:14.520 it certainly feels different read than where we were, of 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:18.560 course a year ago or even eight months ago. I 0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:21.480 think that's what you know. Powell has talked about this before, 0:17:21.520 --> 0:17:23.680 and I think it was in the July press conference 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:27.000 when he talked about how with every kind of new 0:17:27.080 --> 0:17:30.240 wave of delta, there there seems to be a little 0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:33.800 bit less reaction in terms of the consumer response. And 0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:37.119 I think we're certainly seeing that now because you know, 0:17:37.240 --> 0:17:41.560 when I walk around DC as people restaurants, I see 0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:45.919 UM a lot of people who are UM vaccinated and 0:17:45.960 --> 0:17:49.680 feel great about the risks that they're taking UM to 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:53.119 part taking these activities. But then I also know people 0:17:53.160 --> 0:17:56.600 who are canceling their trips and are really nervous about 0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:59.520 sending their kids back to school. And so I think 0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:02.800 we're all so seeing this divergence as we've seen throughout 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:05.200 the course of the pandemic, but we're really seeing a 0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:08.720 divergence in terms of risk assessment UM. And I think 0:18:09.080 --> 0:18:12.960 you know how we fall on that really depends on 0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:17.120 people's own comfort levels rather than you know, geography or 0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:20.280 UM whatever it may be. Okay, So enter fed chair 0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:24.560 at your own Powell. That's his enter music tomorrow, Jack, 0:18:24.640 --> 0:18:28.119 essentially his virtual entrance. Look, you know, if we had 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:29.840 a cowboy hat for every time we talked about the FETE, 0:18:29.840 --> 0:18:31.920 as Carol said earlier than we'd have you know, we'd 0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:34.720 we have spent seven million dollars on cowboy hats this year. 0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:38.080 But the fact is is investors are awaiting what he 0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:41.320 says tomorrow, and I'm wondering how the high frequency data, 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:43.879 how the decline of passengers going through t s A 0:18:44.000 --> 0:18:46.840 checkpoints or people in hotspots who are not dining out 0:18:46.840 --> 0:18:50.400 with open table um, how that changes. Among other things, 0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:52.639 the way that the FETE is thinking about tapering are 0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:54.480 the way that the FETE is thinking about pulling back 0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:58.520 on some of the stimulus. I think from the perspective 0:18:58.520 --> 0:19:01.560 of tapering, it doesn't seemed to have had a huge impact. 0:19:01.600 --> 0:19:04.080 I mean, the biggest clear impact that the delta has 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:06.520 had on the FED recently is the fact that Jackson 0:19:06.600 --> 0:19:09.199 Hole shifts to being shifted to being virtual from in 0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:11.960 person and um a very short amount of time and 0:19:12.040 --> 0:19:14.840 right before it was actually happening. UM. But in terms 0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:17.440 of what that means for keeping I think, UM, there's 0:19:17.480 --> 0:19:20.160 been a lot of FED speak out recently, UM where 0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:23.600 where folks are encouraging on papering sooner rather than later. 0:19:23.720 --> 0:19:26.560 So I don't know how much Delta is playing into 0:19:26.600 --> 0:19:30.640 that decision, but I'm definitely curious to see how Powell 0:19:31.040 --> 0:19:33.840 talks about that in his Jackson Hole speech, since he 0:19:33.920 --> 0:19:36.200 definitely got peppered with a lot of questions about Delta 0:19:36.240 --> 0:19:38.600 in the last press conference. Well, here's a number for 0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:40.560 for us, and you've got it in your story. You 0:19:40.600 --> 0:19:43.600 talk about the progressive think tank, the Century Foundation, estimates 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:45.840 seven and a half million workers will lose all unemployment 0:19:45.840 --> 0:19:49.000 benefits on September six, when the main pandemic programs. And 0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:51.359 that's a lot of Americans, it is. And how do 0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:53.480 the ripple effects that it has throughout the economy and 0:19:53.480 --> 0:19:56.240 also what does it do for job for the jobless 0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:59.359 who exactly potentially do you go and start working again? 0:19:59.400 --> 0:20:01.600 All right, it's a great story, a great read, and 0:20:01.640 --> 0:20:03.760 a lot of information in it. Read. Thank you so much, 0:20:03.760 --> 0:20:06.920 really appreciated. Of course, that's Bloomberg News US economic reporter 0:20:07.000 --> 0:20:09.680 Read Pickard jointing us on the phone from Washington, d C. 0:20:09.960 --> 0:20:12.080 It is the international cover store, but as you said, 0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:16.120 you can find it at Bloomberg dot com. Ro Marco 0:20:18.320 --> 0:20:21.800 Journal Now, but you let me drive. No, no, no 0:20:24.400 --> 0:20:28.520 night please, I'll do the riding drivel. I want to drive, 0:20:31.240 --> 0:20:44.359 just drive baby, good questions, drying This is the drive 0:20:44.400 --> 0:20:47.880 to the globe. Give me thanks, We'll drying us down 0:20:48.200 --> 0:20:51.520 on Bloomberg Radio. Is it is time for the drive 0:20:51.600 --> 0:20:53.240 to the clothes And I'm just looking at the equity 0:20:53.280 --> 0:20:55.800 trade Doug of course, just breaking down the numbers. We're 0:20:55.800 --> 0:20:58.520 hovering near or loads of this session, as Doug mentioned, 0:20:58.680 --> 0:21:00.679 about half a percent on the S and P dow 0:21:00.760 --> 0:21:04.080 down a hundred seventy two points, also down a half percent. 0:21:04.280 --> 0:21:06.879 Same thing for the NASTAC on a percentage basis, but 0:21:06.960 --> 0:21:09.160 again hovering near our highs on a day where we've 0:21:09.200 --> 0:21:13.760 seen several couple of explosions in Afghanistan. Let's get to 0:21:13.840 --> 0:21:17.040 it with Randy Watts, Randy Watts's chief investment strategist at 0:21:17.040 --> 0:21:19.600 O'Neil Global Advisors, joining us once again on the phone 0:21:19.720 --> 0:21:23.000 from Miami. Wow, Randy, you heard me, And take a 0:21:23.040 --> 0:21:25.000 deep breath a big side there, because that's the type 0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:28.199 of day it has certainly been. Like. Uh, when we 0:21:28.240 --> 0:21:31.000 talk about macro, we often talk about what's happening with 0:21:31.040 --> 0:21:33.960 trade and what's happening, of course with the Federal Reserve 0:21:34.160 --> 0:21:36.200 and with the virus. But today it was a different 0:21:36.240 --> 0:21:39.520 story with those two explosions in Afghanistan. We did see 0:21:39.560 --> 0:21:43.959 the equity markets reach session lows just following that news. Um, 0:21:43.960 --> 0:21:47.280 how did you watch it? Well? First off, thanks for 0:21:47.320 --> 0:21:48.879 having me back. And I do want to say my 0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:50.960 thoughts and prayers go out to the families of the 0:21:50.960 --> 0:21:53.680 servicemen and women and others who were killed in those 0:21:53.720 --> 0:21:56.600 two bombings today in Kabul. Obviously, it's a very bad 0:21:56.640 --> 0:21:59.359 situation my understanding, as they have over five thousand people 0:21:59.359 --> 0:22:01.400 at the airport right now. They're still trying to get out, 0:22:01.440 --> 0:22:04.320 so it's a very tenuous situation and our thoughts and 0:22:04.320 --> 0:22:07.520 prayers are with those people and hoping get them evacuated safely. 0:22:07.920 --> 0:22:10.520 I think what's happening in the Afghanistan is a big deal. 0:22:11.040 --> 0:22:13.159 I think it raises the specter that there is going 0:22:13.240 --> 0:22:16.080 to be more terrorist activity the US is going to 0:22:16.160 --> 0:22:19.879 have to deal with, uh that Afghanistan is not stabilized 0:22:20.320 --> 0:22:21.920 and it's not going to be as quick and easy 0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:24.160 and exitus that maybe some of the some of the 0:22:24.640 --> 0:22:28.720 procrastinator procrastinators thought. So I do. I am a little 0:22:28.720 --> 0:22:31.880 worried about that, and I think anytime there's geopolitical instability, 0:22:31.880 --> 0:22:34.359 that's bad for marketing. So yeah, let me just jump 0:22:34.359 --> 0:22:36.080 into that a little more randy. Does that mean that 0:22:36.080 --> 0:22:38.639