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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go from the test throwing out

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Speaker 1: so spect I'm saying it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 3: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate combine if you want to.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 4: I'm Jill Gallant. I'm joined by Eben Abrams. Each and

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Speaker 4: every week here's our research director here at the Action Network.

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Speaker 4: And as usual, we're going to dive into all the

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Speaker 4: Sunday NFL action for week thirteen. Brandon Anderson, he'll join

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Speaker 4: us a little bit later in the show. He's gonna

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Speaker 4: have his hot reeds Patrick Everson for Vegas Insider. He'll

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Speaker 4: give us an update on the sportsbooks in Vegas and

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Speaker 4: how they fared for this NFL Sunday. But Evan, as usual,

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Speaker 4: let's look at Monday Night Football Jaguars Bengals. Jaguars nine

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Speaker 4: point favorites with another total below forty at thirty nine.

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Speaker 4: Jacksonville though eight and three against the spread, best mark

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Speaker 4: in the NFL, while the Bengals are four six and

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Speaker 4: one against the spread. I'm not sure if I'm going

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Speaker 4: to betting a side in this game, Evan, but I

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Speaker 4: will say that it does not match up well for Sincey,

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Speaker 4: especially because since He's run game is non existent for

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Speaker 4: most of the year and it was abysmal with Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 4: It's been bad with Jake Browning as well, and Jacksonville's

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Speaker 4: been quietly one of the best run defenses in the NFL.

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Speaker 4: There fifth and rush yards allowed, sixth and rushing touchdowns allowed. Also,

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Speaker 4: Sean Kerner, our colleague, does spreads for basically backup quarterbacks,

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Speaker 4: and he had Jake Browning as arguably the worst backup

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Speaker 4: quarterback in the NFL at that point, based on like

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Speaker 4: a minus six spread differential if he's playing as opposed

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Speaker 4: to Burrow. So I don't know if I could really

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Speaker 4: take a Bengals side here at nine. I think I'm

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Speaker 4: leaning to the under here. What are you looking at

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Speaker 4: right now for this game?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not sure you could even talk about a

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Speaker 2: side in this one, especially when it gets up to ten,

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Speaker 2: because I can't talk about taking the Bengals for a

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Speaker 2: number of reasons based off of things you've seen from Browning,

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Speaker 2: but I mean, from the Jaguars point of view, probably

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Speaker 2: the hottest team in the NFL right now, seven to

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Speaker 2: one ATS in their last eight, and from Jacksonville's point

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Speaker 2: of view, it's the best start since two thousand and seven,

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Speaker 2: So they're hot in itself in terms of winning games,

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Speaker 2: and Jacksonville in terms of Peterson wins night games twenty

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Speaker 2: one and eight straight up, nineteen and ten against the spread,

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Speaker 2: so they've done well there. And then the scary thing

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Speaker 2: on the other side is the Browning stuff, Like Taylor

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Speaker 2: without Burrow has been literally atrocious. It's four and twenty

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Speaker 2: straight up, ten and fourteen against the spread. That four

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Speaker 2: and twenty number is just yikes. And you know, sometimes

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Speaker 2: Cincinnati needs Burrow to bail them out. So it just

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Speaker 2: kind of proves what type of team they are, especially

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Speaker 2: in the past. Obviously they had some really tough years.

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Speaker 2: Burrow is hurt, but in this one, I'm just not

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Speaker 2: sure I can, like you said, talk about a side. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: Unders thirteen and one on Monday Night football this year,

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Speaker 2: fifty eight, twenty eight and one since twenty nineteen, so

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Speaker 2: Unders have been the ride. It's at forty right now. Now,

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Speaker 2: it's interesting to look that the look ahead total was

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Speaker 2: forty one, now just forty, so a very small move

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Speaker 2: compared to obviously the spread that's moved an enormous amount

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Speaker 2: without Burrow. So maybe the under is the play, especially

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Speaker 2: if you can get over that forty number.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And I mean so I've taken the over now

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Speaker 4: in three straight Monday night footballs. I'm not doing it

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Speaker 4: again because I'm oning three on that spot. I'm not

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Speaker 4: testing the gambling gods anymore. But I will say this

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Speaker 4: is that if you like the Bengals, I think you

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Speaker 4: might like the over as well, because I think the

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Speaker 4: one way that they would score is probably in the

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Speaker 4: opening couple of drives, those scripted plays. But I feel

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Speaker 4: like if they don't get it going by then I'm

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure if they're going to be able to

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Speaker 4: manage and just manifest offense in the second half here.

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Speaker 4: But I will say Jake Browning as a touchdown scorer

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Speaker 4: does seem interesting. It's around twelve to one. You don't

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Speaker 4: really see a lot of any time touchdown odds for

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Speaker 4: a starting quarterback at those odds. Now. I did just

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Speaker 4: mention obviously that Jacksonville was really good against the runs,

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Speaker 4: so maybe not the best spot here, but also at

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Speaker 4: the same time, I'm just saying there's not a lot

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Speaker 4: of opportunity where you're able to get a quarterback over

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Speaker 4: plus one thousand. But from a touchdown perspective, I think

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Speaker 4: I would lean to Zay Jones with the Jaguars. He's

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Speaker 4: a round plus three seventy five at bat MGM. So

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Speaker 4: one of the reasons why I like Jay Jones is

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Speaker 4: now he's only played five games this year, but he

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Speaker 4: does have two touchdowns, seven red zone targets. Earlier in

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Speaker 4: the year, had a really good connection with Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 4: where you had like five red zone targets in two games,

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Speaker 4: but was dealing with injury a lot. This year, he's

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Speaker 4: off the injury report now. Bengals pass defense starting to

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Speaker 4: regress their nineteenth and DVO waiversus the past. They're going

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Speaker 4: to be missing one of their starting orders as well,

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Speaker 4: Cam Taylor Britt. I really like all the past pass catchers.

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Speaker 4: I like Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk too, but they're

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Speaker 4: all around plus one eighty to plus one ninety, so

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Speaker 4: I'd rather just look down the odds board, especially for

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Speaker 4: a wide receiver that's playing over seventy five percent of snaps.

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Speaker 2: What do you think about Ingram.

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Speaker 4: He's due and I don't really like betting touchdown scores

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Speaker 4: when he's due. And I think the books know that too,

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Speaker 4: that the money is starting to flood in on that

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Speaker 4: because you're starting to see him drop from plus three

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Speaker 4: hundred to less, especially with how the Bengals do match

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Speaker 4: up against tight ends this year where they're bottom five

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Speaker 4: and devl waiversus tight ends. I just don't like betting.

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Speaker 4: It's the same. It's the Deontay Johnson paradox. I don't

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Speaker 4: like betting on you to score your first touchdown. I'll

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Speaker 4: get back in on the train after you get through,

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Speaker 4: But until I see it, I need to. I have

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Speaker 4: to pump the brakes. I just don't want to, especially

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Speaker 4: with this climate that we're in of touchdown scores where

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Speaker 4: they're already harder to hit as they are so but

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Speaker 4: not crapping on the pick. It's more just if it's

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Speaker 4: not going to happen, now, when is it going to happen?

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Speaker 1: You know?

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Speaker 4: All right, so that's Monday night football. But now, well

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Speaker 4: let's start looking at Sunday. Evan six teams on buy.

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Speaker 4: This week we had the Ravens, the Bills, the Bears,

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Speaker 4: the Raiders, the Vikings, and the Giants. Very interesting slate

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Speaker 4: two very good for favorites ten and one straight up,

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Speaker 4: eight and three against the spread. Favors just crushing over

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Speaker 4: the last three weeks, thirty three and eight straight up,

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Speaker 4: twenty five and sixteen against the spread. How did the

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Speaker 4: public do? Evan for this week?

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Speaker 2: Same thing, another role, another go. It's honestly been unreal.

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Speaker 2: So eight and three straight up, eight and three against

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Speaker 2: the spread for the public, and it's important to remember

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Speaker 2: because of them fifty one percent of tickets or higher

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Speaker 2: on the spread we use it according to Action Network

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Speaker 2: Action Labs. So but eight and three straight up, eight

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Speaker 2: and three against the spread. Now, big picture, you know,

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Speaker 2: balloon view one hundred and fourteen and seventy straight up

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Speaker 2: one hundred and one seventy eight and five against the spread.

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Speaker 2: That is the best ATS start for the public in

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Speaker 2: bet Labs, so that since two thousand and five weeks.

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Speaker 2: That's during Sunday night football. So we'll see how it goes.

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Speaker 2: But right now, that is the best start one o

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Speaker 2: one seventy eight and five against the spread.

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Speaker 4: Benhelvad In a very public road favorite this week. Definitely

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Speaker 4: the game of the week, maybe even the game of

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Speaker 4: the year was forty nine Ers Eagles forty nine Ers

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Speaker 4: big road favorites, not big favorites actually, but big favorites

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Speaker 4: for playing at the link at three with over under

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Speaker 4: forty eight. The Niners win convincingly forty two to nineteen

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Speaker 4: total also goes over, especially in the second half, because

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Speaker 4: the Niners offense really just started to get really efficient

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Speaker 4: in the second half. They had six straight drives with

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Speaker 4: a touchdown. And Brock Purty, you know, the MVP stock rising,

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure if I'm willing to put him as

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Speaker 4: a favorite over somebody like Jalen or maybe even to

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Speaker 4: what nineteen for twenty seven from the field, three hundred

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Speaker 4: and fourteen yards, four touchdowns, no picks in a pretty

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Speaker 4: hostile environment against a pretty tough defense. I thought it

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Speaker 4: was a pretty convincing win.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this one was super saying from multiple points of view. Right,

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Speaker 2: we had talked about this one coming off of the

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Speaker 2: Eagles overtime game last week. The amount of plays had

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Speaker 2: to play.

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Speaker 4: Games they played in the last few weeks too, that's true.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, in the last thirteen days that had been talked

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Speaker 2: about as well, So you know, a lot of tread

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Speaker 2: and the tires going into this one. Uh now you

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Speaker 2: talked about party. I think it's interesting to bring up

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Speaker 2: this stat to three hundred passing yards, four touchdowns and

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Speaker 2: no picks. It's only the second quarterback to ever do

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Speaker 2: that in Philly. Kirk Cousins did that. So three hundred

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Speaker 2: pass three hundred passing yards, four touchdowns. Though just teasing,

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Speaker 2: it's honestly crazy that like in these situations he has

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Speaker 2: stepped up. Now he hasn't been as good on the road, right,

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Speaker 2: like his whole entering this one, people had kind of

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Speaker 2: talked about the fact that like different quarterback at home,

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Speaker 2: they run over people. Games really aren't close. On the road,

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Speaker 2: it's been a different story. This was completely different. Like

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Speaker 2: people who handicap this game and during the game talked

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Speaker 2: about all the things that I feel like kind of

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Speaker 2: came true. He just ran over Philly in a number

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Speaker 2: of areas that they were either injured or what felt

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Speaker 2: like a little bit weaker. And during this game. Now,

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Speaker 2: if this game gets repeated, if you know there's a

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Speaker 2: little bit of rest involved, and you know, game take

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Speaker 2: I think it's I think there's a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a different story, but I think the handicap for this

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Speaker 2: week just kind of worked.

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Speaker 4: Well, and this game felt like it was going to

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Speaker 4: be competitive all the way through. I mean, the Eagles

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Speaker 4: cut it to twenty one to thirteen, and but again,

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Speaker 4: the Niners just could not be stopped. From a defensive standpoint,

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Speaker 4: the Eagles defense just was not getting anything going, and

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Speaker 4: their run game was pretty much non existent forty six

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Speaker 4: rushing yards on seventeen carries. They usually average about thirty

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Speaker 4: rush attempts per game, so they couldn't really control the pace.

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Speaker 4: And then of course we have to acknowledge at least

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Speaker 4: that Jalen Hurts might have been a little banged up there,

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Speaker 4: especially in the second half. He did leave for a

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Speaker 4: little while. He did end up coming back, leading a

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Speaker 4: touchdown drive touchdown pass to Ofvante Smith. But early in

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Speaker 4: the game I thought the Niners were going to be

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Speaker 4: in trouble because they had two three and outs the nine.

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Speaker 4: The Eagles were driving down the field on two straight

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Speaker 4: drives end up settling for field goals, and a stat

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Speaker 4: that I saw before the game was that the Eagles

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Speaker 4: had had twelve straight red zone trips with a touchdown

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Speaker 4: entering the game, and they had to settle for those

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Speaker 4: two field goals.

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Speaker 1: I thought that was a.

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Speaker 4: Really important stand for that Niners defense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think early on it didn't feel like the

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Speaker 2: way it was the way it ended right like, I.

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Speaker 4: Got real chippy by the end, got.

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Speaker 2: Real chippy, but also kind of turned down into a blowout.

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Speaker 2: Now the Hurts injury. I think a few things happened

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Speaker 2: that kind of led there. But early on I thought

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Speaker 2: it was going to be kind of a juggernaut battle,

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Speaker 2: but it ended up turning out to be kind of

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Speaker 2: what the S brand ended up dictating, which was market money.

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Speaker 2: Everything went San Francisco's way, and they looked great Now,

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Speaker 2: San Francisco, I think it's interesting to kind of look

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Speaker 2: forward a little bit. This game was what it was.

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Speaker 2: I think we're both gonna We're gonna see both these

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Speaker 2: teams going forward. It's those laying twe saves those laying

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Speaker 2: twelve next week at home against Seattle. Obviously Seattle now

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Speaker 2: on a little bit extra rest off that Dallas game,

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Speaker 2: but huge, huge numbers, so healthy all around. I kind

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Speaker 2: of like Seattle, but there's most maybe Kenneth walker back,

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Speaker 2: So maybe like number gets a little higher.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, for sure. And the Niners, obviously, I think are

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Speaker 4: going to be laying pretty heavy numbers, I think the

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Speaker 4: rest of the way because they've got the Seahawks, the Cardinals.

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Speaker 4: Now the Ravens might be a little bit closer, but

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Speaker 4: they are hosting the Ravens and then the Commanders and

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Speaker 4: Rams to finish out the year. But the Eagles, I'm

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Speaker 4: more interested in how their schedule is about to go

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Speaker 4: now because now they have to go on the road

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Speaker 4: next week to Dallas. They are going to be three

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Speaker 4: point road dogs at this stage. It might grow depending

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Speaker 4: on what kind of injury status we're seeing with Jalen Hurts,

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Speaker 4: but I'm not sure. Simon, as part of the Favorites podcast,

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Speaker 4: he mentioned that this spread may go to for I'm

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Speaker 4: not sure if that's going to be the case. I

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Speaker 4: think that will still get back down to three. But again,

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Speaker 4: their schedule, You've got the Cowboys, then that same Seahawks teams, Cardinals,

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Speaker 4: Giants to end it out. But this is kind of

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Speaker 4: the Cowboys opportunity where if they were able to get

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Speaker 4: a win here, the race to the NFC East gets

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Speaker 4: a little closer.

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Speaker 2: I mean, has Philly ever entered Dallas with Dallas more

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Speaker 2: hot than this? So, I mean, if they get the

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Speaker 2: spread's going to go to four, especially Dallas at home

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Speaker 2: and what they've been doing, it's been absolutely unreal. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I could see anything. I think, just like Listen, I

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Speaker 2: was enticed by the three when it got there. I

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Speaker 2: think if it got the four, especially that's a pretty

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Speaker 2: key number in that situation, it's gonna be pretty enticing.

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Speaker 2: But I think you also have to, you know, get

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Speaker 2: some early word on Hurts this week, right.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely, But I think the early betting will move

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Speaker 4: that market and you'll see kind of that money. I

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Speaker 4: think we'll show you if whether or not he's actually

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Speaker 4: feeling good going into the week. All right. So that

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Speaker 4: was probably the most high profile game of the day,

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Speaker 4: But another game that had some had some cachet was

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Speaker 4: Broncos Texans and Texans win twenty two to seventeen. Texans

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Speaker 4: do cover as three and a half point favorites, the

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Speaker 4: total does go under a forty seven and a half

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Speaker 4: Interesting now with the Broncos, who had won six straight

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Speaker 4: coming into that game, now six and six. Tough loss. Again,

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Speaker 4: both of these teams are pretty much right in the

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Speaker 4: mix and the AFC playoff picture for the wild card spots.

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Speaker 4: But now the Broncos, they've got the Lions, the Chargers,

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Speaker 4: the Patriots, and the Chargers coming up for the remainder

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Speaker 4: of their schedule. That feels a little tough to be

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Speaker 4: able to make it, especially when you consider the Texans

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Speaker 4: now sitting there with the Jets, Titans, Browns, and Titans

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Speaker 4: again and then the Colts to finish off their season.

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Speaker 4: I'm kind of thinking that the Broncos let this one

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Speaker 4: slip away and it might cost them the playoff spot

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Speaker 4: going forward.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we did a good job sliding this

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Speaker 2: one second, because this is massive in the AFC picture.

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Speaker 2: I didn't think it was gonna be massive maybe a

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Speaker 2: few weeks ago or definitely before the season. As we

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Speaker 2: got here right now, absolutely massive, And from a person

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Speaker 2: who had Houston money line, I feel like I got Russ.

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Speaker 2: I got the Russ I wanted right the US I

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Speaker 2: thought I was gonna get. I got the rust that

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Speaker 2: thought the streak was going to end up breaking at

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Speaker 2: this point, it wasn't going to keep running. It was

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Speaker 2: something that you know, obviously, the NFL is a roller

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Speaker 2: coaster and one touchdown, three interceptions one hundred and eighty

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Speaker 2: six yards, especially the bad interception to end the game.

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Speaker 2: I feel like it was the right handicap. Obviously, Stroud

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Speaker 2: gets hurt and it's all you know, all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: you get a little bit of a flux in the

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Speaker 2: middle of the game. Then Tank Dell gets hurt as well.

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Speaker 2: So Houston went through a bunch of different things during

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Speaker 2: the game, but still comes out on top. Also fun

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Speaker 2: to note Houston Indy two first teams over their preseason

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Speaker 2: win total. So AFC South, which we could talk about.

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Speaker 4: We could see three AFC South playoff teams this year.

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Speaker 4: We'll talk about that Colts team here in a little

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Speaker 4: bit real. Yeah, I would not have predicted that at

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Speaker 4: the start of the year, given the way the AFC

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Speaker 4: playoff picture was. I think that take Dell injury is

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Speaker 4: a little underrated of going forward. I know, I love CJ. Stratta,

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Speaker 4: he can make other guys become better, but Tank Dell

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Speaker 4: was such a safety vout for him, especially on the run,

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Speaker 4: making a converting third down stuff like that. So he

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Speaker 4: was one of their best playmakers and he's probably out

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Speaker 4: for the rest of the year now. So that's a tough,

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Speaker 4: tough loss. But that Russell Wilson game that you were

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Speaker 4: talking about, he's only had in his career because I

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Speaker 4: went and looked it up. Now he's played like one

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Speaker 4: hundred and fifty games at least in his career, but

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Speaker 4: he's only had four three interception games. He's not really

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Speaker 4: that type like he'll have like you know, a turnover

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Speaker 4: maybe a turnover street, but he doesn't really have a

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Speaker 4: lot of turnovers in one game. He has had one

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Speaker 4: three turnover game like that with the Broncos so far,

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Speaker 4: but again, very efficient usually on the turnover front. So

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Speaker 4: especially the way that was ice like that for the

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Speaker 4: Texans felt like it had to be done. But again

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Speaker 4: the turnover look for them that they've had over the

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Speaker 4: last six games, that had to turn right. So I

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Speaker 4: mean Russey had forty four passing yards from the half.

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Speaker 4: Not a lot of run game as well. That's another

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Speaker 4: thing that's been going on for the Broncos because they

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Speaker 4: again now only have three run or four rushing touchdowns

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Speaker 4: this year. Russ has two of them. Russ was the

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Speaker 4: second leading rusher on the team today like that can't

337
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Speaker 4: happened for the Broncos to be successful. So the Texans,

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Speaker 4: though they're not completely out of it in the AFC South,

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Speaker 4: I'm not saying that they can win the division again,

340
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Speaker 4: it's pretty much the Jags, especially with the Jags schedule

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Speaker 4: it's remaining. But I still think that that Texans team,

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Speaker 4: if they match up with the Jags, I still think

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Speaker 4: that they could probably get there. They just don't have

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Speaker 4: another game obviously the rest of the season with them.

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Speaker 4: I'm just saying that I still feel like there's an

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Speaker 4: outside chance that the Texans can win the AFC South

347
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Speaker 4: and that it's maybe interested in betting because they were

348
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Speaker 4: probably around plus three hundred to win the AFC South

349
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Speaker 4: entering today, I imagine it's probably around the same odds

350
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Speaker 4: after today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a believer. I mean, I'll believe in Houston

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Speaker 2: to catch Jacksonville before I believe in Indy.

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Speaker 4: Jackson will still to hold it out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I still can't believe in Indy like this still Okay,

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Speaker 2: still behind Indy to me all year and maybe listen,

356
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Speaker 2: as gamblers and people who kind of go through this

357
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Speaker 2: sport week to week and just very granular to it,

358
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Speaker 2: sometimes we have blind spots. Right, there's certain things maybe

359
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Speaker 2: we have things we've known in the past that you know,

360
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Speaker 2: maybe we're not adjusting to. I just I'm not doing

361
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Speaker 2: great with Indy. I just feel like they're a team

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Speaker 2: that's excelling and doing well and performing well this year,

363
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Speaker 2: and I continue to kind of not rate them as such.

364
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Speaker 2: So I think I'm pretty surprised by what they've done.

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Speaker 2: And if I'm gonna pick a team, I'm with you.

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Speaker 2: I think Houston, you know, I think that. Listen, the

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Speaker 2: Tank Dell injury really does hurt, right, Like they had

368
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Speaker 2: an offense that was able to kind of extend the

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Speaker 2: field and do things that probably helped other parts. And

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Speaker 2: now if tanks out, maybe it hurts that a little bit.

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Speaker 2: But c J. Stroud's been unreal. I know we've talked

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Speaker 2: about this every show, but twenty touchdowns, five interceptions through

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Speaker 2: twelve career starts, you know today eight yards per attempt

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Speaker 2: with no interception. It's kind of just beautiful that the

375
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Speaker 2: kind of game he plays, it makes it easier on

376
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Speaker 2: the offense and the defense. So just kind of like Houston.

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Speaker 4: And the Texans have to basically face the backup quarterback

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Speaker 4: the rest of the way. Yeah, Jets two times against

379
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Speaker 4: Will Levis and the Titans and then whatever Joe Flacco,

380
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Speaker 4: whatever's left to him and Gardner Minshew, who will talk

381
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Speaker 4: about him in a second, but he had a full

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Speaker 4: Minshew game today as well. With the Colts team.

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Speaker 2: Think about this defense, Denver. Listen to this stat. Oh

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Speaker 2: for eleven on third down that just I saw that.

385
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Speaker 2: I had to look twice. But oh, for eleven on

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Speaker 2: third down, that's something that's some great work from Themiko.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's talk Lions Saints. Lions win thirty three

388
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Speaker 4: to twenty eight. They do covers three and a half

389
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Speaker 4: point favorites and the over of forty eight and a

390
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Speaker 4: half hits. Don't get it twisted that that twenty eight

391
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Speaker 4: points was all. They kept it close because Lions pretty

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Speaker 4: much came out and blasted them early and then they

393
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Speaker 4: just sat on the lead. Yes, they did allow a

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Speaker 4: few touchdowns due Dan Taysom. They finally put the ball

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Speaker 4: in Taysom Hill's hands and good things happened. Because I

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Speaker 4: just I can't politely say it anymore. Can we just

397
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Speaker 4: not do it? Derek Carr like he had to leave

398
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Speaker 4: the game today for multiple injuries, different things like a

399
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Speaker 4: shoulder injury, an ankle, injury, maybe a potential concussion. I mean,

400
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Speaker 4: he was seven for twelve for eighty four yards a

401
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Speaker 4: half with a touchdown, and he threw an interception on

402
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Speaker 4: the first throw of the game. He had a fourth

403
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Speaker 4: fourth quarter fumble that he lost that kind of put

404
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:21,520
Speaker 4: them in a bad position. And this was after last

405
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Speaker 4: week where they were settling for field goal. They settled

406
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Speaker 4: for five field goals in the red zone last week.

407
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Speaker 4: I just can't watch it anymore with Derek Carr. So yeah,

408
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Speaker 4: I'm hoping the Saints kind of just start to drift away.

409
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Speaker 4: We'll talk about the NFC South here in a second,

410
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Speaker 4: but Lions again, they pretty much just bum rushed them.

411
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Speaker 4: Like Samuel Porta had an amazing game, one hundred and

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Speaker 4: fifty five yards and a touchdown. But yeah, that's pretty

413
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Speaker 4: much what I took away from this is that the Lions.

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Speaker 4: Now they took care of this harder road game. They've

415
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Speaker 4: only got one more game and a dome the rest

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Speaker 4: of the year, and that's against the Bears next week.

417
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Speaker 4: They're going to be pretty big favorites in that game.

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Speaker 4: I imagine this offense is going to keep clicking. Are probably

419
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Speaker 4: gonna finish with at least twelve wins.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a way to look at this from

421
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Speaker 2: both teams, because I think you do have to look

422
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Speaker 2: at it singularly. From New Orleans' point of view, NFC

423
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Speaker 2: south Man, you're just gonna get this week in and

424
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Speaker 2: week out. From all the teams, it's gonna be good.

425
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Speaker 2: It's gonna be bad, it's gonna be ugly, it's gonna

426
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Speaker 2: be fun for a little bit. It's just there's flaws

427
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Speaker 2: on all of those. Let's forget Carolina for a second

428
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Speaker 2: because they have no chance to win the division being eliminated.

429
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Speaker 2: But the other three team eliminated, Yeah, right, the other

430
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Speaker 2: three teams going back and forth. There's good things, there's

431
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Speaker 2: bad things, and I think it shows every week, right

432
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:37,160
Speaker 2: the Dennis Allens to the Arthur Smiths to the Todd Bowles.

433
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,439
Speaker 2: Someone's got to win this. So I think from New Orleans'

434
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,359
Speaker 2: point of view, I think there's things to nitpick. There's

435
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 2: something that isn't now. Listen, you want up twenty one

436
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 2: to nothing. The offense looks fantastic. I understand that early on.

437
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 2: Something just still also doesn't feel right with Detroit letting

438
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,879
Speaker 2: New Orleans without your heed back in the game. And

439
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,440
Speaker 2: they had an opportunity to really steal the game at

440
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,480
Speaker 2: the end through a few different you know, drives and this,

441
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,720
Speaker 2: this and that. So to me, I'm a little scared

442
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,600
Speaker 2: of Detroit still, But also I do have to give

443
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 2: it up to Golf. Eight touchdowns, two picks on the

444
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:14,400
Speaker 2: road this year, five and one straight up. He's had

445
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 2: sixty percent completion percentage fourteen straight games, played very well,

446
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,000
Speaker 2: and it's really what I think his leveling out and

447
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:26,359
Speaker 2: his lack of bad turnovers really keeps Detroit above the line,

448
00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:27,160
Speaker 2: if that makes sense.

449
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 4: You know what's funny too about New Orleans is that

450
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:33,240
Speaker 4: they have arguably the next two easiest games you could

451
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 4: have of the year. They have the Panthers coming up

452
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,439
Speaker 4: one and eleven and then face the Giants where they

453
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:40,920
Speaker 4: could easily be break back at five or seven and

454
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 4: seven rather five hundred, maybe potentially getting into the playoffs

455
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,159
Speaker 4: as a wildcard, or even stealing the division. Because the

456
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 4: Falcons right now are six and six. We'll talk about

457
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,120
Speaker 4: them in the Jets game a little bit later. Bucks

458
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 4: also five and seven, who also beat up on the

459
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 4: Panthers today. But yeah, I think the only thing that

460
00:21:58,119 --> 00:21:59,920
Speaker 4: really just to take away from me is the Lions.

461
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,119
Speaker 4: Jared Goff from an ATS standpoint, continues to be a

462
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,439
Speaker 4: cash cow, just hitting over seventy percent since being a

463
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 4: Detroit Lion. A lot of good indoor dome games coming

464
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 4: up with the Bears. They host the Broncos. They've been vikings,

465
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 4: Cowboys vikings to end the year, so I think you're

466
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 4: gonna still see a lot of offensive fireworks come out

467
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 4: of this team. But you're right defensively some of these

468
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,120
Speaker 4: matchups coming up, especially the Bears, who I believe Chad

469
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 4: Millman on Today's Favorite Show said that he was already

470
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,960
Speaker 4: looking at the Bears plus five in that matchup, and

471
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 4: the Bears are kind of a team that could match

472
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 4: up well with them. So that distrust that you have

473
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 4: should not be unwarranted, especially since when the last time

474
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 4: they played, the Bears could have stole that game, right,

475
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 4: So it took a couple fourth quarter comeback there from

476
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 4: golf to be able to steal that back. But very interesting.

477
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 4: We're going to talk about the NFC stuff a little

478
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 4: bit more as we go, but now it's time for

479
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,199
Speaker 4: the hot read from our own Brandon Anderson. Brandon, what

480
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 4: do you have as looking for at early Week fourteen

481
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:57,640
Speaker 4: lines Hot.

482
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 1: Guys Rights ice cream nineteen seven nineteen hol trade that.

483
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:10,200
Speaker 4: All right?

484
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 5: Week fourteen Hot Reed. We are two and zero again

485
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,920
Speaker 5: on Hot Read. This week Texans Island coming through again.

486
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:21,919
Speaker 5: The Niners exposed the Eagles as promised. Hot Red sixteen

487
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 5: seven and one for the season, seventy percent against the

488
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 5: spread on our picks.

489
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:30,120
Speaker 4: Let's get to this week.

490
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,640
Speaker 5: We're going back to Texans Island, but not the way

491
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 5: you think. I think the market finally cut up to

492
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 5: Houston six and a half point favorites against a really

493
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 5: good Jets defense. I sort of feel like there might

494
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 5: be some value on the Jets, but I'm gonna stay

495
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 5: away from the side. I can't abandoned the Island. We're

496
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 5: gonna take the under instead, give me the under thirty seven.

497
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,920
Speaker 5: We already know the Jets are not gonna score, right,

498
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 5: I need to tell you about that since the bye week.

499
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,919
Speaker 5: Here's the Jets points total. These are like baseball numbers

500
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:06,639
Speaker 5: for runs scored thirteen six, twelve, six, thirteen and eight.

501
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 5: That's it nine points seven points a game, and that

502
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 5: entire stretch not fourteen at any point. Fourteen is not

503
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 5: a high bar. And look some of those points are

504
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 5: the defense too.

505
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:17,399
Speaker 4: It's ugly.

506
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 5: I don't know if it's Tim Boyle, I know it's

507
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:21,959
Speaker 5: Tarvi Simeon. He wasn't in the better He was honestly

508
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 5: worse than Boyle this week. So the Jets are not

509
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 5: gonna score. If they only get ten points, then Houston

510
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 5: has to get to twenty eight to go over this. Houston,

511
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 5: for all the good things they've done, has scored twenty

512
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,959
Speaker 5: two points or lest all but four games this season.

513
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,399
Speaker 5: And we know Houston is good. But don't forget the

514
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 5: Jets defense is still the best unit on the field.

515
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 5: Jets defense, Remember the pass defense when they played Josh Allen,

516
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 5: when they played Jalen Hurts, Pat Mahomes. Look what they've

517
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:52,440
Speaker 5: done to the elite quarterbacks and CJ. Stroud has proven

518
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 5: that he belongs in that mix of quarterbacks.

519
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 4: But what's the rookiere.

520
00:24:56,440 --> 00:25:00,360
Speaker 5: Gonna do against this nasty defense. I think this could

521
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 5: be a bit of a root awakening, not necessarily that

522
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 5: the Texans lose. I don't know how my feeling on

523
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 5: that yet, but I do think they're not gonna put

524
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 5: up a huge number here. So I like the under

525
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 5: some of our trends. We know these low unders are

526
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 5: hitting thirty seven or below last four calendar years twenty

527
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 5: eight seven in a one to the under eighty percent

528
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 5: hit rate on the under. This season thirty eight or

529
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 5: below sixteen four and a one to the under eighty

530
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 5: percent hit there by five points a game. Home underdog

531
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 5: games under sixty two percent the last three seasons. Not

532
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 5: gonna fade Texans Island here, But let's fade the hype

533
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 5: a little bit. Let's take the under thirty seven and

534
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 5: then look, if you're gonna make Dennis Allen nearly a

535
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 5: full touchdown favorite, then on the principle I am forced

536
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:54,120
Speaker 5: to bet against him, gave me the Panthers plus six

537
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 5: and a half at the New Orleans Saints. Look, the

538
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 5: Panthers kind of look good today. They got rid of

539
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,880
Speaker 5: half the coach staff this week, so how do they look.

540
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 5: They play the Buccaneers, They hold their own for the

541
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,880
Speaker 5: most part. They fought hard, they covered. They lost by three,

542
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 5: but they covered. They were in it the whole way.

543
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 5: I thought Bryce Young played one of those better games

544
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 5: so far this season. He looked confident, he's moving in

545
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 5: the pocket, he's more aggressive. We saw more Jonathan Mingo

546
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 5: down the field, attacking receiver wise, Cuba Hobbard, the run

547
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 5: game looked good, some good signs from the Panthers, and honestly,

548
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,400
Speaker 5: some bad signs from the Saints. Today seven minutes into

549
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,199
Speaker 5: the game, they're down twenty one nothing to the Lions.

550
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 5: I know that final score made it look competitive, but

551
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 5: it was ugly quickly there. And there's been a lot

552
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 5: of other warning signs of this team. Saints are thirty

553
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 5: first in a pass block win rate, so that line

554
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 5: is not performing. And now Brian burns that pass rush

555
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 5: for Carolina, I think they can make some problems there.

556
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 5: On the other side, the Saints are dead last in

557
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 5: pass rush win rate, so that bad Panthers offensive line.

558
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 5: Bryce Young, all the pressure he's faced, I think he'll

559
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 5: have a little bit more comfortability here. And then a

560
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 5: vaunted Saints defense that has been so good for like

561
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 5: half a decade, now thirtieth in DBA the last five

562
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 5: games entering the weekend, and then probably even worse after

563
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 5: this Lions game. And the offense has been bottom five

564
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 5: at home, so they've been much worse home than on

565
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 5: the road. And look, you know, I had to do

566
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 5: the gruesome stats here. Dennis Allen when he is favored

567
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 5: for his career five sixteen and one against the spread

568
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:34,120
Speaker 5: as a favorite, twenty four percent cover rate, and he's

569
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 5: never been favored by more than six. We're getting six

570
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 5: and a half here. I don't think it's gonna close

571
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 5: that high. That's why we're grabbing it now. Which quarterback

572
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 5: Derek Carr got hurt in this game? I don't know

573
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 5: if he's playing. I don't really care. Derek Carr thirty

574
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 5: three percent cover rate as a favorite. He's lost fifteen

575
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 5: of the last twenty four. Outright, it was Jamis Winston

576
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,159
Speaker 5: instead eight eighteen and one against the spread as a favorite,

577
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 5: thirty one percent cover rate, favored by more than three

578
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 5: two and nine against the spread, eighteen percent cover rate.

579
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 5: Jamis Carr Taysom Hill, I don't know somebody off the street.

580
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 4: I don't really care.

581
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 5: You're giving me some Saints quarterback and Dennis Allen favored

582
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 5: by almost a touchdown. I'm taking the Panthers every time.

583
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 5: The Scents have covered two times the entire season. They've

584
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:24,919
Speaker 5: been favored in ten games. They're one eight and a

585
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,160
Speaker 5: one against the spread in those games, fail to cover

586
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 5: by six points a game, by the way, fail to

587
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:33,120
Speaker 5: cover by six in a six point spread.

588
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:34,919
Speaker 4: You might lose this game.

589
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 5: I'll tell you right now, I already miss betting against

590
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 5: Dennis Allen. And if they do lose this game, this

591
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 5: will be the last time we ever get to bet

592
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 5: against Dennis Allen. They already played Carolina once as Bryce

593
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 5: Young's second game ever. They only won by three points

594
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 5: that game. We're getting six and a half. Give me

595
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 5: the Panthers Week fourteen Hot reads Texans Jets under thirty

596
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 5: seven and the Panthers plus six and a half against

597
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 5: Dennis Allen and the Saints.

598
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 4: The Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM. Used

599
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 4: bonus code Action when signing up to get up to

600
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 4: fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets if your

601
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Speaker 4: first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

602
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

603
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 4: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

604
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 4: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, V Well,

605
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 4: let's continue. Let's now look at colts Titans ultimate bonkers

606
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 4: AFC CEL game. Colts win thirty one to twenty eight,

607
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 4: and the Colts do covers one and a half point

608
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 4: favorites and the overhits of forty two and a half.

609
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 4: And you said you couldn't get there with the Colts,

610
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 4: Well they have one four straight. Now they're seven and five.

611
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 4: They had the seven seed coming into the game, they

612
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 4: still have it. I think, I do think it's very

613
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 4: interesting right now that they actually have the tiebreaker over

614
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 4: the Texans. So right now the Texans still need to

615
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:06,960
Speaker 4: do a little bit of work to get in. But

616
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 4: we still definitely could see three AFC South playoff teams

617
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 4: today this year. And Evan the.

618
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: Other thing too.

619
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 4: I know they gave up twenty eight points today, but

620
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 4: if you look at this win streak, and obviously some

621
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 4: of it is a little bit of crappy opponents, but

622
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 4: their defense has been holding out pretty well, only sixteen

623
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 4: and a half points allowed per game over the last

624
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 4: four winning streak theres so I think the Titans kind

625
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 4: of allowed them to get in there. The Titans actually

626
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 4: they came out fast, like two quick touchdowns from Derrick

627
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 4: Henry and that touchdown was with ten minutes to go,

628
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 4: but then the Titans offense didn't have a first down

629
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 4: again until the start of the fourth quarter. So and really,

630
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 4: I think the story that the main takeaway, Evan that

631
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,479
Speaker 4: I had from this game was Titans special teams just

632
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 4: really blew it today. They got decimated. Like the five

633
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 4: minute sequence. I need to break this down because I

634
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,239
Speaker 4: just find it. So, the Colts block punt and they

635
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 4: get a touchdown, they go up twenty two to seventeen.

636
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 4: The Colts go for two. Gardner Minshew throws a pick

637
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 4: give Titans two points back, and now it's twenty two

638
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 4: to nineteen, and then the Titans get the ball back

639
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 4: and another blocked punt. The Colts now have the ball.

640
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 4: The titansig zared line and they don't have their punter

641
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 4: for the rest of the game because Stonehouse he just

642
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 4: got rocked on that second hit. So I mean, the

643
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 4: game eventually goes to overtime. Titans get a field goal

644
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 4: on the first drive, and then they get a walk

645
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 4: off touchdown to Michael Pittman. So a little bit of luck,

646
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 4: a little bit of fluke there at the end, But

647
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 4: at the same time, the Colts are just finding ways

648
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 4: to win there's even some like even when you go

649
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 4: back to that game of the fact that one of

650
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 4: those seven wins is against the Baltimore Ravens, that with

651
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 4: Gardner Minshew that they won twenty two to nineteen. That's

652
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 4: still I think one of the crazier wins you can

653
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 4: think of of the outcomes for this season. But this

654
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 4: Colts team, man, they're just they're on their way up

655
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:55,239
Speaker 4: and they've got a schedule right now where it's a

656
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:57,640
Speaker 4: lot of crappy quarterbacks on the docket right until the

657
00:31:57,640 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 4: final week of the year.

658
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 2: Full disclosure, anyone who uh is watching the video portion

659
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:05,480
Speaker 2: of this podcast on YouTube, I just can't sit still

660
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 2: when we're talking about the Colts, especially the game growth,

661
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 2: especially when you talking about I had the Titans today

662
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 2: and anybody we were we were live at the you

663
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 2: know Favorites podcast we did in Hope, O Con today

664
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 2: to Shipper and the Knucklehead and you know, Chad Millman

665
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 2: on the Titans, I'm on the Titans ever, you know,

666
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 2: and they were sitting there with a few Colts fans.

667
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 2: It's just it was brutal, Like you know, obviously you

668
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 2: talked about the punting so much went the other way,

669
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 2: and I just you know, every week it feels like

670
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 2: the Colts figure out a way behind Gardner Minshew to

671
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 2: you know, find their way across the finish line. You know,

672
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 2: Titans had more first downs, better third down percentage, more yards,

673
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 2: more rush yards, more possession, same amount of turnovers and

674
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 2: lost the game based off of a number of factors. Frustrating, uh,

675
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 2: you know, but is what it is. Listen, Colts ten

676
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 2: and two team total over this year. So maybe that's

677
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 2: where I'm failing to understand, is that their offense continues

678
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 2: to do things I don't get. And we always talked

679
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 2: about this, like Verabel underdog stat it's done well, but

680
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 2: they are four and six ATS's dogs this year, so

681
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 2: kind of reversing fashion a little bit. And then last

682
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 2: thing I'll note here Will Levis six career starts zero

683
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 2: and six in the second half, so maybe something to

684
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 2: watch in the future there.

685
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 4: Well, the Colts now their schedule coming up. They have

686
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 4: the Bengals with Jake Browning. They've got the Steelers potentially

687
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 4: with Mitch Trubisky because now Kenny Pickett is likely to

688
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 4: miss a few weeks with surgery to his ankle. Then

689
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 4: have to play Desmond Ritter and the Falcons then have

690
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 4: Aidan O'Connell and the Raiders, and then ended off with

691
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 4: the Texans, which may end up deciding the final playoff

692
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 4: spot depending on how the use two play the rest

693
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 4: of the year. Right, So that should be a very

694
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 4: interesting matchup to end off the season. Cardinals Steelers. Cardinals

695
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 4: went twenty four to ten, and the Steelers luck voodoo

696
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 4: gets flush down the toilet because at six and a

697
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 4: half point home favorites they do not cover or win

698
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 4: out right. The Cardinals shock them and the total goes

699
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 4: under of forty and a half. Really it's the Ravens

700
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 4: who end up being the big winners this week because

701
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 4: the Browns lost. We'll talk about that game with the

702
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 4: Rams in a little bit, and the Steelers are now

703
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 4: seven and five. I think this game could be summed

704
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 4: up from that one drive where the Steelers can't convert

705
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 4: on fourth down from the one yard line, and then

706
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 4: the Cardinals, who are arguably bottom three for sure in

707
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 4: the NFL, drive the entire field for a fifteen play,

708
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 4: ninety nine yard touchdown drive that essentially won the game

709
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 4: because right after that Kenny Pickett got hurt. Mitch Trubisky's

710
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,320
Speaker 4: in the game, and then there's a big weather delay

711
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 4: as well that kind of stalled the momentum of this game.

712
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 4: But yeah, to me, the thing that I take away

713
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,319
Speaker 4: from it is that Pickett's have been pretty injury prone

714
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 4: now in his first couple of years. I'm not saying

715
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 4: it's a little bit of the protection from the Steelers,

716
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 4: because he's taken some pretty big hits. He's trying to

717
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,280
Speaker 4: hang out there in the pocket and he's just getting rocked.

718
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 4: And Trubisky is just such a big drop off from

719
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 4: Kenny Pickett, which just shows you how much the Steelers

720
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 4: quarterback situation is just in the toilet right now.

721
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to agree there. Trubisky definitely is a

722
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:24,279
Speaker 2: decent drop off from Pickett. I don't know if it's

723
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:26,359
Speaker 2: a ton, but they're definitely on.

724
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 4: The opening drive. I know Kenny Pickett could do that too,

725
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 4: but yeah, it's still pretty bad.

726
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 2: It's hard to decipher. A little bit. I looked back,

727
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 2: Trubisky's had five starts with Pittsburgh, it's worth noting. I

728
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 2: guess he's owing two at home, so it hasn't won

729
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:41,360
Speaker 2: at home with Pittsburgh.

730
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:43,399
Speaker 4: His starting to come back against the Bucks last year.

731
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 4: That's the thing.

732
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 3: I read his.

733
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:49,360
Speaker 2: Starts though, twenty four points, twenty seventeen, fourteen, twenty three,

734
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 2: so you could probably assume they're going to score about

735
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 2: that eighteen to twenty one mark with him in there.

736
00:35:56,440 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 2: I mean, listen, the question I asked myself and we

737
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 2: even talked about it on convinced me this morning, is

738
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 2: how long can Pittsburgh keep it up?

739
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 3: Right?

740
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 4: They were?

741
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 2: There were seven and four, They had the minus two

742
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,319
Speaker 2: point one straight up margin. They were. It just it

743
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,279
Speaker 2: felt like a luck box. They were high in the

744
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:15,879
Speaker 2: luck rankings. So this is this was their come down

745
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:20,359
Speaker 2: to moment, right like Arizona's defense stinks, like outright, their

746
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 2: defense is not good. And the fact that this game

747
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 2: turned into what it was kind of just proves what

748
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is. So new England coming up, Indy, coming up,

749
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 2: Cincinnati coming up. So you know, could they you know,

750
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 2: maybe they'll roll off three in a row. But this was,

751
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:38,759
Speaker 2: you know, one of the good moments. There was just

752
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 2: too many points.

753
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, Evans conclusion, the Steelers were exposed. This really all

754
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:47,880
Speaker 4: comes down to, all right, Browns, Rams, let's talk that

755
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 4: game now. Rams win thirty six to nineteen rams do

756
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 4: cover his four point favorites and the over of forty

757
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:58,760
Speaker 4: and a half hits and the combined age of quarterbacks

758
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 4: in this game was seventy three years old. Joe Flacco

759
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 4: thirty eight years old, starts for the Browns today and

760
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 4: looked great right off the hop and then just completely

761
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 4: fell off a cliff in the second half. You know,

762
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 4: a couple turnovers in the second half, he was able

763
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:17,399
Speaker 4: to get it to twenty like he essentially about tied

764
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,320
Speaker 4: the game with eight minutes to go. Dustin Hopkins misses

765
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 4: that extra point, But once that happened, you kind of

766
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:25,919
Speaker 4: knew that this game mightn't go off the rails because

767
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 4: that was probably the Browns' best chance of keeping it close.

768
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 4: I don't know if they had another touchdown drive in them,

769
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 4: and they didn't, because that was the final score or

770
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:37,280
Speaker 4: at least final output for them. The Browns. To their defense,

771
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 4: I think that was another big thing is that if

772
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 4: you look at by the dv away defensive dv away,

773
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 4: they ranked very high near the top when it comes

774
00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 4: to pass dv away and run dv away for that matter,

775
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 4: and they were just allowing a ton of big plays today.

776
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,400
Speaker 4: Seventy yard touchdown for pookin Nakula. Another big rushing It

777
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 4: wasn't a touchdown, but almost a touchdown for pookin Nakua.

778
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 4: You just not used to seeing that on the Browns defense.

779
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 4: And yeah, so the Rams now, Evan, I think that's

780
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 4: the picture we need to look at because I think

781
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 4: the Browns are just still in really big trouble in

782
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,920
Speaker 4: their quarterback situation. If Joe Flacco is there, I'm just

783
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:14,799
Speaker 4: not sure they're going to be able to hang on

784
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 4: to the playoff spot at seven and five in the AFC.

785
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 4: But the Rams are really interesting now because they have

786
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 4: won three straight. They're six and six. They're gonna face

787
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 4: the Ravens here coming up next week, and then the

788
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 4: Commander's Saints, Giants and forty nine Ers, So it's not

789
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:35,440
Speaker 4: the road from hell, but also it's not an easy

790
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 4: road to maybe get to that NFC playoff spot here.

791
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 4: But what was your takeaway from Browns Rams? Was it

792
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 4: just essentially that the Browns just are completely overmatched with

793
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:46,280
Speaker 4: Flacco a quarterback.

794
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 2: I think the Browns have a nice comparison to the

795
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 2: Jets in a sense, and they're kind of in similar

796
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 2: scenarios where you have tremendous defenses, where you can't find

797
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:02,319
Speaker 2: enough offense, you can't find the right quarterback. Now, coach,

798
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 2: I will say that last year.

799
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 4: I just remember that.

800
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:06,720
Speaker 2: And the thing that's funny about this is I watched

801
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 2: this game and I saw this comment a lot on Twitter,

802
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 2: and I kind of have to agree. It's just like

803
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,479
Speaker 2: Black Oat didn't play awful in two hundred and fifty

804
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 2: four passing yards, two touchdowns, you had the one interception,

805
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 2: but honestly, they were trying to come back and it

806
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:19,320
Speaker 2: was a little bit of force. But if you compare

807
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: it to what you've seen in New York, it's just

808
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:25,840
Speaker 2: it's unbelievable to me and I, you know, this is

809
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 2: a very separate conversation with the Jets in terms of

810
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 2: why they haven't gone outside the building more than they

811
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 2: have to find an option. But Cleveland's in the picture.

812
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 2: This is their first two game losing streak of the year.

813
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:37,760
Speaker 2: This is the first time they're looking at a skid.

814
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:39,919
Speaker 2: They probably wouldn't be looking at this type of skit

815
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,919
Speaker 2: if they had a decent offensive, you know, output week

816
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:45,719
Speaker 2: to week. So I think that's Cleveland's side of it. Now,

817
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:49,719
Speaker 2: the Rams, I think week to week they're better than

818
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 2: we thought they were going to be in the preseason,

819
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:53,800
Speaker 2: and I think they've kind of kept that week to

820
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:55,839
Speaker 2: week right. That's why they're still in the picture. They're

821
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,240
Speaker 2: gonna go to Baltimore next week. They're probably gonna lose.

822
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 2: I think those next two games after that are absolutely vital.

823
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:04,799
Speaker 2: Like you said, versus Washington versus New Orleans, a two

824
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 2: to zero would go a long way. But that's kind

825
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 2: of my outlook now. Between Cup and Pooka and Karen Williams,

826
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 2: you know, you have a lot of options in the

827
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:17,319
Speaker 2: Rams and I didn't think we would think they'd be

828
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 2: that good, but they're dangerous week to week.

829
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 4: Let's move to another game in the NFC between the

830
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 4: Dolphins and Commanders, battle between AFC and NFC, where the

831
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 4: Dolphins just completely crushed them today forty five to fifteen.

832
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 4: The Dolphins cover is nine and a half point favorites

833
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 4: over Hits very easily. At forty nine and a half.

834
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 4: The must have been this might have been one of

835
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 4: the least sweatiest overs of the year, other than maybe

836
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 4: Dolphins Broncos where they scored seventy. Because the total was

837
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:47,719
Speaker 4: at forty five Honestly, I don't think I really took

838
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 4: a lot away from this game of what I learned

839
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 4: from Miami, other than it was nice to see them

840
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:55,319
Speaker 4: put up forty on the road in poor weather as well,

841
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 4: especially not that comfort of playing in Miami. And then

842
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:00,399
Speaker 4: Tyreek Hill. I mean, if you're gonna leave them wide

843
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:02,760
Speaker 4: open for a seventy five yard touchdown, that you deserve

844
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 4: to lose. And it was the worst possible matchup for

845
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 4: the Commanders because coming into this game or they were

846
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 4: the worst pass defense in the NFL, they were lasted

847
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 4: defensive Dboway, and you decided to play man coverage and

848
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 4: no safety help on Tyreek Hill, which is just all right,

849
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 4: I guess you want to lose that game. And I

850
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,319
Speaker 4: mean once they were up thirty eight to seven, I

851
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 4: was just like, all right, no, Mas, I can't watch

852
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:22,960
Speaker 4: this game anymore.

853
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:23,239
Speaker 3: Yeah.

854
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,880
Speaker 2: Well, as Simon actually mentioned it on a favorite other day,

855
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:28,879
Speaker 2: Washington might be on a no bet list. We might

856
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 2: have to just like take a minute. They do have

857
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:32,880
Speaker 2: a bye week next week, so they're definitely going to

858
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:36,839
Speaker 2: be under no by bet list for that. But at

859
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 2: Rams at Jets, so maybe at Rams you just got

860
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 2: to take a week because right now I am kind

861
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 2: of intrigued by Washington week to week getting as many

862
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 2: points as they are because because I do feel like

863
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 2: they can put up points that didn't matter at all here.

864
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 2: I mean, this is an absolute blow. And I think

865
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 2: you made a really good point about Miami scoring in

866
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 2: a bad situation on the road that many I think

867
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 2: it's a good thing for them. It's a good thing

868
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 2: to see you away from South Beach. It's worth noting

869
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 2: Tyreek Hill one four eighty one receiving yards, most for

870
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 2: any player through twelve games since nineteen sixty one. He

871
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 2: is four hundred and eighty four receiving yards away from

872
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 2: breaking Calvin Johnson's record, and it is week thirteen.

873
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:21,479
Speaker 4: And let's talk Okay, So let's talk about that. Because

874
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 4: the Dolphins upcoming schedule, I feel like he could do

875
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:26,200
Speaker 4: that or at least put a big dent in that

876
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:30,360
Speaker 4: next week, facing the Titans, who are bottom five and

877
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,399
Speaker 4: DVLWA to wide receiver one, they're one of the worst

878
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 4: teams in DVOWA versus the deep pass, So that could

879
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:37,399
Speaker 4: be another game where he could be going for another

880
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty yards, maybe even two touchdowns. But

881
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 4: I say that because they've got the Titans and the

882
00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 4: Jets coming up. Those are two games that I think

883
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 4: they could win. But the final three games of the

884
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 4: year are going to be a test for the Dolphins.

885
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 4: They're gonna play the Cowboys, and then they're gonna play

886
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 4: the Ravens, and then they're gonna play likely a Bills

887
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:58,319
Speaker 4: team that is just cliing to survive to try to

888
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:00,719
Speaker 4: make if there is even a chance by that point

889
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:02,960
Speaker 4: of Week eighteen to make the wild card game. So

890
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 4: I think the Dolphins there is still very comfortable position

891
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 4: to win the AFC East. I'm just not confident with

892
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 4: that final three games that I would feel great about

893
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 4: looking at them for a conference like one seed bet

894
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:17,800
Speaker 4: like where they're at right now, especially with where the

895
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 4: Ravens are at nine and three depending on how this

896
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 4: Chiefs Packers game goes, and then of course the Jaguars,

897
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 4: who likely go to nine and three. I think I

898
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 4: could say that playing the Bengals, what we'll see, you know,

899
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 4: But so do you think from a Dolphins perspective, we're

900
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 4: just looking at them going forward? What's your optimism here?

901
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 4: Is it you got to get a home playoff game,

902
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:38,800
Speaker 4: and we'll see where it goes.

903
00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:42,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think from now Listen, it's funny

904
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:44,719
Speaker 2: saying this after watching them put up this performance on

905
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:48,840
Speaker 2: the road and in bad conditions in Washington, But I normally,

906
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:51,400
Speaker 2: probably prior to I would have said a home playoff

907
00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:54,320
Speaker 2: game would have been very important for them versus maybe

908
00:43:54,320 --> 00:43:56,760
Speaker 2: some other teams that could have dealt with some conditions.

909
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:58,520
Speaker 2: They dealt with some pretty good conditions. You know that

910
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 2: Washington Field he's always talked about, is pretty bad in himself,

911
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 2: so the performance is good. But yeah, I mean, I

912
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 2: think from a from what they do in Miami and

913
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 2: how comfortable they're in the building, and you know that

914
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 2: late in the year, it's not like you're gonna get

915
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:16,439
Speaker 2: a super hot Miami it doesn't really matter. I don't

916
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:19,760
Speaker 2: think their fan base is you know, exceptionally rabbit either,

917
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 2: so you know, I think their offense would travel, So

918
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 2: I'm not exactly sure how vital it is, but be nice.

919
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:31,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, And I mean Devon a Chan was a big,

920
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 4: big return for them today. He scored a touchdown, got

921
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 4: a lot of work too, just to that way, you

922
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:38,680
Speaker 4: don't have to put everything on Raheem Moster. But the

923
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 4: fact that you could have a two headed threat like

924
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 4: that from Miami, who's already top three in rush yards

925
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:47,839
Speaker 4: per game. So they're a very versatile offense, and just

926
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:49,959
Speaker 4: it should be very interesting the way they will match

927
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 4: up against the team like the Cowboys and the Ravens,

928
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:53,760
Speaker 4: because we've seen how they match up against the Bills,

929
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 4: but two other teams that try to get in like

930
00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:58,279
Speaker 4: a track me kind of thing. So all right, let's

931
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 4: wrap this up. There's three games left, two of them

932
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:02,799
Speaker 4: from the NFC South. We kind of touched on them

933
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 4: a little bit earlier, but I want to talk a

934
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 4: little bit more about it, just as the we'll group

935
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 4: them together here. Panthers Buccaneers, Bucks win twenty one to eighteen.

936
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:13,800
Speaker 4: The total thirty six and a half does go over

937
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 4: despite being in a insane monsoon there for a little

938
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 4: bit in the first half. The rain did clear out

939
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 4: a little bit, but despite being the first eliminated team

940
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 4: from playoff contention, Panthers do the Lord's work and they

941
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:30,440
Speaker 4: covered that three and a half, and they sealed the

942
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 4: over by getting that two point convert on that Chewbobber

943
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 4: touchdown with five minutes to go, and then the Bucks

944
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 4: converted a couple first downs and that was the game.

945
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:40,759
Speaker 4: So I know that there were people that in my

946
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 4: circle who were holding a Panthers ticket and were holding

947
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 4: an overticket in this game, and they were both just

948
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:48,160
Speaker 4: over the moon when that two point convert hit.

949
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:50,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, dead cat bounce as we call it. So you

950
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:54,480
Speaker 2: got the one week Carolina win. So now those fired

951
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 2: teams one week after go twenty one and sixteen against

952
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 2: the spread. So decent, especially when you think about those

953
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:06,720
Speaker 2: teams with thirty seven percent ats prior to that coaching fire.

954
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 2: So I would assume Carolina after getting eliminated, you probably

955
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 2: go back to not really betting them week to week.

956
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 4: No, I don't think so, especially because Mike Evans has

957
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:18,120
Speaker 4: just own that matchup Mike Evans as well. I think

958
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:22,280
Speaker 4: it's worth acknowledging ten straight years of one thousand yards receiving.

959
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:24,839
Speaker 4: No other player in NFL history has six. He had

960
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:26,759
Speaker 4: five catches for one hundred and sixty yards and a

961
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:30,320
Speaker 4: touchdown today seventy five yard touchdown. Doctor Nick Giffon cash

962
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:32,759
Speaker 4: on his touchdown bet today as well at plus one

963
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 4: to eighty. But also the Falcons Jets, so the Bucks

964
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 4: are at five and seven now in the NFC South

965
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:41,400
Speaker 4: but the Falcons of the Jets. The Falcons win thirteen

966
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 4: to eight. That is correct, It's not a high scoring

967
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:47,760
Speaker 4: baseball game. That was the final score in an NFL

968
00:46:47,800 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 4: game between two NFL offenses. The Falcons went thirteen to eight.

969
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 4: Falcons do cover though, as two point favorites and the

970
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 4: under of thirty three and a half hits. I mean,

971
00:46:58,520 --> 00:47:00,960
Speaker 4: it was ten to five at halftime. It was probably

972
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 4: about twelve more points than I thought we'd see at halftime,

973
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 4: a thirteen to eight final score. I mean, Tim Boyle

974
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:10,720
Speaker 4: was so bad that Robert Style went to Trevor Simeon

975
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:13,239
Speaker 4: today for the Jets situation. So I just don't think

976
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 4: there's any way that Aaron Rodgers is coming back now.

977
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 4: The Jets schedule is still pretty hard. They're four and eight.

978
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 4: I think it's a fun story for maybe two seconds

979
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 4: for TMZ, but I just can't do it from a

980
00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:26,160
Speaker 4: Jet standpoint. So I think we could just stop talking

981
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 4: about them where it's going to be from a wildcard standpoint.

982
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:32,959
Speaker 4: But the NFC South Evan now the Falcons six and six,

983
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 4: Saints five and seven, Bucks five and seven. As I

984
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:39,000
Speaker 4: was mentioned earlier, like the Falcons and the Bucks are

985
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 4: going to be playing here coming up, and if the

986
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 4: Bucks win that game, they're right back in the driver's

987
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:44,760
Speaker 4: seat now for the lead in the NFC.

988
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 2: South Man, I don't know what to do with this division.

989
00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 2: In the preseason, I like the Falcons. I continue to

990
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 2: prefer the Falcons especially. I know Godwin looked okay today,

991
00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 2: but he's been injured and I think that really hurts

992
00:47:57,640 --> 00:48:00,279
Speaker 2: the Bucks. And the Saints are an absolute mess right now,

993
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:04,960
Speaker 2: especially their receiving corps really banged up. So Atlantis seems

994
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:07,399
Speaker 2: like the good call. I just don't trust Desmond Ritter,

995
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 2: and he's played better than Heineke, so I kind of

996
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 2: have to just take a deep breath and allow him

997
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:16,560
Speaker 2: to play quarterback in this offense and hope that he's

998
00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:19,080
Speaker 2: not the reason that they end up kind of giving

999
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:22,800
Speaker 2: the games away. Talking about the Jets just for one second,

1000
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:25,840
Speaker 2: because I think this one number is just incredible. So

1001
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:28,319
Speaker 2: they were two for fifteen on third down today, So

1002
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 2: two for fifteen on third down thirty seven of one

1003
00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 2: sixty on third down for the season. That twenty three

1004
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 2: point one percent would be the worst for any team

1005
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 2: in the wild Card Era through twelve games. So that

1006
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 2: is kind of The encapsulating number for the Jets this

1007
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 2: year is they're just making it really really hard on themselves,

1008
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 2: which is inherently making it more difficult on the defense,

1009
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 2: and you're seeing the output.

1010
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 4: And that's gotten worse as the year is going on.

1011
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,319
Speaker 4: They were at like around twenty five to twenty eight

1012
00:48:56,320 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 4: percent and we were making fun of how it was going,

1013
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:00,480
Speaker 4: and then over the last couple of games games, it's

1014
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 4: just gotten worse now where it's just like, oh, man,

1015
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 4: like that kind of like hurts my heart to watch.

1016
00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:08,480
Speaker 4: Now it's almost just watching like a rotting corpse, Like

1017
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 4: I can't, I can't do it anymore, all right. But

1018
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 4: now another game I can do, though, is watching the

1019
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:16,800
Speaker 4: Patriots tank job. Because the Chargers win six to nothing

1020
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:19,600
Speaker 4: over the Patriots today, the total of thirty eight and

1021
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 4: a half, which did go up by the way before kickoff,

1022
00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 4: it was around thirty six and went up to thirty

1023
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:27,799
Speaker 4: eight and a half by kickoff. It still goes comfortably

1024
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 4: under and the Chargers do cover is four and a

1025
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 4: half points favorites. But I think the main takeaway from

1026
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 4: this game is the race to the first pick, because

1027
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 4: the Patriots now fall to two and ten, but the Cardinals.

1028
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 4: With that win over the Steelers, see that position. Now

1029
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 4: they are three and nine around the third position. We'll

1030
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 4: see how that shakes out, but the Panthers still comfortably

1031
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:54,600
Speaker 4: at one and eleven for the race to draft potentially

1032
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 4: Caleb Williams.

1033
00:49:55,920 --> 00:49:57,640
Speaker 2: All I'll say is this, I've got some tickets on

1034
00:49:57,680 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 2: New England to have the worst racker in the NFL.

1035
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 2: I've got some tickets on them to have the fewest

1036
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 2: offensive points. Let's just keep it up. That's all I

1037
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 2: got asked for. All I'm asking for is just a

1038
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:11,960
Speaker 2: bunch a few more zeros, some more field goals, and

1039
00:50:12,080 --> 00:50:13,240
Speaker 2: we're just gonna be fine.

1040
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 4: I mean, the Patriots defense did play well, though they've

1041
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 4: had three straight games now where they've held an opponent

1042
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 4: to ten points or less and have not won a game.

1043
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:25,360
Speaker 4: And looking that up, that was the first time I

1044
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:29,920
Speaker 4: believe since like nineteen thirty eight and Bailey's appy he

1045
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:33,319
Speaker 4: got sacked in Chargers territory their one loan red zone

1046
00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:37,080
Speaker 4: trip three straight times. The Chargers finished with five sacks

1047
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:40,400
Speaker 4: for the game. Again, I'm not sure if this is

1048
00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:43,719
Speaker 4: rock bottom for the Patriots, but again, the tank job

1049
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 4: just continues and the Chargers all they had to do

1050
00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 4: was just show up and you got the win.

1051
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:49,480
Speaker 2: Yeah. I believe it was our first shutout at home

1052
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 2: since twenty sixteen. Patriots now two to ten against the

1053
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:54,840
Speaker 2: spread this year, so that would be the worst in

1054
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 2: the NFL. Also, they've never been to in ten ats

1055
00:50:58,200 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 2: in the history of they're franchise, So this is and

1056
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:04,759
Speaker 2: absolute worse for them. And honestly, if you're a fan

1057
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:07,040
Speaker 2: of the team, you just wanted to get worse and

1058
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:09,160
Speaker 2: worse and worse because you might as well just head

1059
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:09,960
Speaker 2: to where you're gonna go.

1060
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:13,240
Speaker 4: Well, now you're gonna have an even more fun matchup

1061
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 4: next week. When the total is that probably a twenty

1062
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:18,360
Speaker 4: nine and a half between the Patriots and the Steelers

1063
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 4: for this one, Yeah, give it to me.

1064
00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:23,640
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah. So right now, it's thirty two and a half.

1065
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:27,680
Speaker 2: Last time I looked, and it would be tied. Well,

1066
00:51:27,719 --> 00:51:30,360
Speaker 2: it's the lowest over under for any game this season,

1067
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:33,400
Speaker 2: because thirty three and a half was the one before that,

1068
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 2: But it would be tied for the lowest total for

1069
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 2: any game since December two thousand and eight, and it

1070
00:51:39,600 --> 00:51:42,840
Speaker 2: is the lowest total in a night game since Bears

1071
00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:45,759
Speaker 2: Falcons two thousand and five, which was thirty one. That

1072
00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:48,000
Speaker 2: was Kyle Orton versus Michael Vick.

1073
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:51,719
Speaker 4: And I would put money on the idea that that's

1074
00:51:51,760 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 4: a good number because that number will go down by

1075
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:55,520
Speaker 4: the time you get to kick off. I think the

1076
00:51:55,560 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 4: public will get very much behind that once they see

1077
00:51:57,640 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 4: the quarterback matchup, and once we'd learn a little bit

1078
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:04,840
Speaker 4: more about Trubisky and potentially Bailey Zappy facing off in

1079
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 4: the matchup of week fourteen. All right, so that's all

1080
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:10,680
Speaker 4: the Sunday games. Let's now check in with Patrick Everson

1081
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:13,440
Speaker 4: with Vegas Insider to see how sportsbooks fared in Las

1082
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:14,920
Speaker 4: Vegas for week thirteen.

1083
00:52:15,120 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 3: Hie again, Jill, thanks for having me on the Action

1084
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:22,360
Speaker 3: Network podcast this week. This has been a pretty entertaining

1085
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:27,359
Speaker 3: NFL Sunday NFL week the public rolls once again. This

1086
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 3: is two weeks in a row where a whole lot

1087
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:31,960
Speaker 3: of favorites have come through, and that's obviously been very

1088
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:34,440
Speaker 3: good for betters and definitely a bit of a beatdown

1089
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:38,360
Speaker 3: for the bookmakers. This could have been an absolute blood

1090
00:52:38,440 --> 00:52:41,200
Speaker 3: letting on Sunday, and it was. It was close as

1091
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:44,440
Speaker 3: it almost was, but even then, it was still a

1092
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 3: pretty good day for betters. Here in Vegas and at

1093
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:49,960
Speaker 3: sportsbooks across the country. And the reason was, look, in

1094
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:52,560
Speaker 3: those first ten games leading up into the Sunday night game,

1095
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:55,319
Speaker 3: you had the favorites go nine to one straight up,

1096
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:58,719
Speaker 3: eight and two against the spread. The only favorite that

1097
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:02,360
Speaker 3: lost was the Steelers. Nobody really is betting on the Steelers.

1098
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:04,319
Speaker 3: They know that that show is smoking mirrors. And that

1099
00:53:04,440 --> 00:53:07,840
Speaker 3: was proven today against Arizona, which they lost, and I

1100
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:08,879
Speaker 3: had Arizona on.

1101
00:53:08,840 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 4: The money line.

1102
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 3: I just knew that game was coming and there It

1103
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:14,279
Speaker 3: was so a nice little win for me today Joe

1104
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:17,479
Speaker 3: q public as well. But the thing, like I said,

1105
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:20,319
Speaker 3: eight and two against the spread going into the night

1106
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:23,440
Speaker 3: game with the Chiefs and the Packers, and everything was

1107
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:26,120
Speaker 3: running to the Chiefs. Tons of moneyline parlays, surely a

1108
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 3: whole lot of teasers, straight bet parlays and so forth.

1109
00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 3: It was all running to Kansas City. And in fact,

1110
00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:34,520
Speaker 3: Scott Shelton after the day on fold of the way

1111
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:38,319
Speaker 3: it did with the favorites doing so well, I texted him,

1112
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:40,640
Speaker 3: he's with betam GM here in Las Vegas. I asked

1113
00:53:40,680 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 3: him how badly do you need the Packers tonight? And

1114
00:53:43,040 --> 00:53:47,400
Speaker 3: he said, really bad. We are taking a dull axe

1115
00:53:47,680 --> 00:53:51,359
Speaker 3: to the back of our head today. That's pretty good quote,

1116
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:53,440
Speaker 3: a dull axe to the back of our head today.

1117
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:56,279
Speaker 3: So such was the state of the sports books and

1118
00:53:56,360 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 3: how well the sports betters were doing. Now, obviously Kansas

1119
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:02,919
Speaker 3: City doesn't get there for the betters. Tonight Packers get

1120
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 3: the outright win twenty seven to nineteen, so that helped

1121
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 3: give a little bit back to the books. But Scott

1122
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:12,239
Speaker 3: Shelton said what that Packer win did was prevented a

1123
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:16,600
Speaker 3: historically bad Sunday and turned it into just a bad Sunday,

1124
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 3: And a couple of other odds makers said likewise. One

1125
00:54:19,520 --> 00:54:21,240
Speaker 3: other one that I talked to here in Las Vegas

1126
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:23,560
Speaker 3: said it helped us for sure to have Green Bay

1127
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:25,800
Speaker 3: win outright, but he said the damage was done and

1128
00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 3: we still had a tough day, but the Packers winning

1129
00:54:28,560 --> 00:54:31,360
Speaker 3: prevented it from being really awful. Looking ahead to the

1130
00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:33,359
Speaker 3: Monday night game, this is from Bedam Jim a little

1131
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:36,400
Speaker 3: bit earlier on Sunday, So as this unfolds on Monday,

1132
00:54:36,440 --> 00:54:39,759
Speaker 3: this is going to probably change to some degree, But

1133
00:54:39,800 --> 00:54:41,480
Speaker 3: I do think the Jaguars are going to be very

1134
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:44,279
Speaker 3: much the public play. But going into Sunday at least

1135
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:46,640
Speaker 3: tickets and money on the spread were a little more

1136
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:49,600
Speaker 3: than two to one in favor of the Jaguars against

1137
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:51,680
Speaker 3: the Bengals, and obviously the Bengals were out with Joe

1138
00:54:51,680 --> 00:54:54,759
Speaker 3: Burrow very much shorthanded, so a little over two to

1139
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:56,239
Speaker 3: one tickets and money on the spread in favor of

1140
00:54:56,280 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 3: Jacksonville on the money line if you're interested in that

1141
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:01,840
Speaker 3: as well, even on tickets at bet MGM. This is

1142
00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 3: betem GM nationwide, by the way, not just bet them

1143
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:06,680
Speaker 3: gym here in Vegas dead even on money line tickets,

1144
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 3: but two to one money line cash again on the Jaguars.

1145
00:55:10,080 --> 00:55:13,400
Speaker 3: So they're even laying that juice up to minus four

1146
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:16,080
Speaker 3: fifty or so on Jacksonville this line, because this line

1147
00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:17,479
Speaker 3: has gone up quite a bit. I think it opened

1148
00:55:17,480 --> 00:55:19,279
Speaker 3: seven and a half and it's up to nine and

1149
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 3: a half, I believe, so plenty of interest in Jacksonville

1150
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:27,520
Speaker 3: on Monday night, although if people had their Monday line

1151
00:55:27,520 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 3: and parlays going to the Chiefs and then onward to

1152
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:31,879
Speaker 3: the Jags, well a lot of that probably got blown

1153
00:55:31,960 --> 00:55:36,200
Speaker 3: up with the Chiefs losing outright now, looking ahead to

1154
00:55:36,320 --> 00:55:38,719
Speaker 3: NFL Week fourteen odds already on the board and I

1155
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 3: talked to an odds maker on this Sunday night here

1156
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:43,960
Speaker 3: in Las Vegas about several of the key matchups this week,

1157
00:55:44,000 --> 00:55:48,000
Speaker 3: the more notable games coming up in this next week. Specifically,

1158
00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:50,560
Speaker 3: we talked about the Sunday night football game gonna be

1159
00:55:50,600 --> 00:55:52,880
Speaker 3: a dandy. You got the Eagles at the Cowboys. The

1160
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:55,759
Speaker 3: Eagles are gonna be sore, They're gonna be peeved. They're

1161
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:58,520
Speaker 3: coming off getting embarrassed at home by the Niners. I mean, look,

1162
00:55:58,560 --> 00:56:01,160
Speaker 3: it's no shame losing to the Niners, but the Eagles

1163
00:56:01,160 --> 00:56:03,440
Speaker 3: got rocked. I mean forty two to nineteen. The Niners

1164
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:06,239
Speaker 3: went up and down the field on Philly. So the

1165
00:56:06,239 --> 00:56:08,759
Speaker 3: Eagles are certainly going to be not in a good

1166
00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:11,960
Speaker 3: moods as they head to Dallas. But Dallas is on a.

1167
00:56:11,960 --> 00:56:13,000
Speaker 4: Four game win streak.

1168
00:56:13,280 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 3: Put up forty one points in Week thirteen against Seattle

1169
00:56:17,680 --> 00:56:19,279
Speaker 3: at home with granted it took all they had to

1170
00:56:19,280 --> 00:56:21,640
Speaker 3: beat Seattle. They beat Seattle forty one thirty five, did

1171
00:56:21,640 --> 00:56:23,520
Speaker 3: not cover. They were nine nine and a half point

1172
00:56:23,560 --> 00:56:25,759
Speaker 3: favorites the Cowboys were did not cover that number. But

1173
00:56:25,840 --> 00:56:27,359
Speaker 3: Dallas has won four in a row and now they're

1174
00:56:27,360 --> 00:56:29,480
Speaker 3: at home against Philly again. Philly is probably going to

1175
00:56:29,520 --> 00:56:32,200
Speaker 3: be pretty hungry. What the oddsmaker did with this game

1176
00:56:32,280 --> 00:56:35,279
Speaker 3: is opened the Cowboys minus three. Dallas quickly moved to

1177
00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:37,400
Speaker 3: minus three and a half and then kind of settled

1178
00:56:37,400 --> 00:56:39,600
Speaker 3: at three minus one twenty. I'm talking to you late

1179
00:56:39,640 --> 00:56:41,600
Speaker 3: Sunday night. I think there's been a shift back to

1180
00:56:42,560 --> 00:56:46,480
Speaker 3: Dallas three and a half even money with this odds maker.

1181
00:56:46,600 --> 00:56:48,920
Speaker 3: So he said that this isn't a clear cut one

1182
00:56:48,960 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 3: sided betting game. He said the public still has trust

1183
00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:56,040
Speaker 3: in Philly overall, which the public should because Jill Philly

1184
00:56:56,120 --> 00:56:57,960
Speaker 3: is ten and two, so there's plenty of reason, and

1185
00:56:57,960 --> 00:56:59,879
Speaker 3: they're pretty good against the spread as well, I think

1186
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:02,520
Speaker 3: seven three and two. So look, the public's not going

1187
00:57:02,560 --> 00:57:04,520
Speaker 3: to jump off that bus just yet, but certainly there's

1188
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:06,239
Speaker 3: going to be a fair amount of public play on

1189
00:57:06,320 --> 00:57:09,440
Speaker 3: Dallas this week. What he did say is Eagles Cowboys

1190
00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:14,239
Speaker 3: will be a very high handle game. Kansas City, as

1191
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:17,680
Speaker 3: we talked about upset road loss against the Packers in

1192
00:57:17,720 --> 00:57:21,120
Speaker 3: week thirteen, open minus three at home against the Bills

1193
00:57:21,120 --> 00:57:22,520
Speaker 3: for week fourteen.

1194
00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:24,080
Speaker 4: Now that opening number went.

1195
00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 3: Up before Kansas City lost to Green Bay twenty seven

1196
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:31,680
Speaker 3: to nineteen, and Buffalo coming off of buye and desperate

1197
00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 3: with a six and six record. The oddsmaker said the

1198
00:57:33,800 --> 00:57:36,520
Speaker 3: Bills are power rated much higher than that six and

1199
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:39,280
Speaker 3: six record, but he expects the book is going to

1200
00:57:39,280 --> 00:57:41,080
Speaker 3: be rooting hard for Buffalo here. He doesn't think the

1201
00:57:41,480 --> 00:57:44,080
Speaker 3: public's going to jump on board, even though Buffalo has

1202
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:46,880
Speaker 3: got a better power rating than its record. Public's going

1203
00:57:46,920 --> 00:57:48,600
Speaker 3: to be all over the Chiefs, especially coming off a

1204
00:57:48,680 --> 00:57:52,880
Speaker 3: loss and returning home. Now the aforementioned forty nine ers

1205
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:57,840
Speaker 3: fresh off a phenomenal and very impressive win at Philadelphia

1206
00:57:57,840 --> 00:58:00,160
Speaker 3: again forty two to nineteen, in case you miss it.

1207
00:58:00,640 --> 00:58:02,919
Speaker 3: So San Fran opens is a twelve and a half

1208
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:06,280
Speaker 3: point home favorite against Seattle. Seattle just a few weeks ago.

1209
00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:08,520
Speaker 3: This was a team everybody was you know, intrigued by

1210
00:58:08,600 --> 00:58:10,960
Speaker 3: and thought would be in the playoff mix. They're gonna

1211
00:58:10,960 --> 00:58:12,680
Speaker 3: have to fight their way back into the Seahawks are

1212
00:58:13,080 --> 00:58:15,560
Speaker 3: The odds maker said, San Fran has turned back into

1213
00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:18,280
Speaker 3: the buzz saw. It was early in the season, no question.

1214
00:58:18,320 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 3: After that win over Philly. He added that this line

1215
00:58:20,840 --> 00:58:23,960
Speaker 3: might trend toward minus ten, might see it, you know,

1216
00:58:24,400 --> 00:58:26,440
Speaker 3: shift that direction a little bit, but he said he

1217
00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:29,560
Speaker 3: fully expects the book is going to need a Seattle

1218
00:58:29,680 --> 00:58:32,520
Speaker 3: cover in that Seahawks Niners game.

1219
00:58:33,160 --> 00:58:33,720
Speaker 4: So there we have it.

1220
00:58:33,840 --> 00:58:36,800
Speaker 3: Jill, a little look at how NFL Week thirteen went

1221
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:38,520
Speaker 3: behind the counter and on our side of the counter.

1222
00:58:38,520 --> 00:58:41,040
Speaker 3: Another good week for public betters. Quick look at that

1223
00:58:41,240 --> 00:58:44,160
Speaker 3: Bengals Jaguars Monday Night game and a look ahead to

1224
00:58:44,240 --> 00:58:47,920
Speaker 3: some of the key matchups in NFL Week fourteen. Have

1225
00:58:47,960 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 3: a great week.

1226
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:50,960
Speaker 4: Okay, thank you, Patrick. Thank you for listening to the

1227
00:58:51,000 --> 00:58:54,840
Speaker 4: Action Network podcast presented by bet MGM Joy Monday Night Football.

1228
00:58:54,960 --> 00:58:56,880
Speaker 4: Keep an eye out for all of our NFL Week

1229
00:58:56,960 --> 00:59:13,920
Speaker 4: fourteen podcasts right here on the Action Now.

1230
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:19,000
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1231
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:22,320
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1232
00:59:22,600 --> 00:59:25,200
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1233
00:59:25,280 --> 00:59:26,040
Speaker 3: hundred Gambler