WEBVTT - Beating The Book: The 2021 NCAA Tournament Special with Seth Walder, ESPN, on Giant Killers; 3 Man Weave on Round 1 ATS and Bracket Pools 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:11.879 Check it down man now down now it is geel Alexit. 0:00:12.080 --> 0:00:15.040 There's a number game right here a network Pisa dot com. 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:18.800 But he should have fruit boastling game. Plus I heart radio. 0:00:19.400 --> 0:00:21.479 Jason con my producer, looking like, hey, wait at the 0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:24.160 show start, Yes, good morning, Hey go catch you off 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:28.280 guard cat you off guard man? Uh great show today. 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:33.160 The madness continues. We will have all three three man 0:00:33.200 --> 0:00:36.280 Weavers on the show today, so Matt Cox, Jim Root, 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:39.840 Kaim McKeon for the better part of an hour actually 0:00:39.840 --> 0:00:41.360 a little more than an hour. Towards the end of 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:44.839 the show, we will go region by region, bracket by racket, 0:00:45.200 --> 0:00:47.760 and we will do it a t s and just 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:51.839 in terms of advancing in your pools, upset minded pools, 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:54.800 whatever kind of pool you're in. So both from a betting, 0:00:54.960 --> 0:00:58.160 individual games and bracket standpoint, with all three man Weavers 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:00.160 looking forward to that. And then in the first or 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:03.680 ESPN Sports analytics writer Seth Walder who has carried the 0:01:03.760 --> 0:01:07.480 Giant Killers mantel now for a while at ESPNS, and 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:11.680 we will start with with him momentarily talking about the 0:01:11.760 --> 0:01:16.840 game's most ripe for Giant Killer upsets. And I think 0:01:16.880 --> 0:01:18.680 I have this right when I say we define giant 0:01:18.760 --> 0:01:25.160 killers by anything that is five seeds or more in separation, 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:28.800 so eleven verses six, twelve verses five, four, so on. 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:31.959 That could apply to second round and beyond as well. 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:33.759 Say if an eight B to one, that kind of thing, 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:36.080 as long as it separated by five seeds. Good morning 0:01:36.120 --> 0:01:39.520 to you, Seth, Good morning Gil. I think we even 0:01:39.520 --> 0:01:42.600 did this last year without a tournament. Yes, we that's 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:46.880 exactly right. We did it without a tournament, and we 0:01:46.920 --> 0:01:48.800 did it a week early, sadly, so that's why we 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:52.080 did it. We had no idea what was about to happen. Uh, Seth. 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:54.000 Let's define first of all, I don't know if you 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:57.480 heard the preamble there. Let's define what constitutes a giant 0:01:57.560 --> 0:01:59.960 killer in terms of seeding, and then what are the 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:05.360 characteristics first of all that that are really essential to 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:09.320 the profile of a potential giant killer. Yeah, Gil, you 0:02:09.320 --> 0:02:11.640 had it right. It's a five seed differential, so in 0:02:11.639 --> 0:02:14.160 the first round we're looking at anything. An eleventh seed 0:02:14.480 --> 0:02:17.600 or worse in the first round could be classified as 0:02:17.600 --> 0:02:21.520 a giant killer. Basically, the model is the majority of 0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:24.919 the model is our regular basketball power index, so it's 0:02:24.919 --> 0:02:29.200 our our model that you see across ESPN that it 0:02:29.240 --> 0:02:33.840 takes into count efficiencies, opponent adjustments, all of that. But 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:35.680 then we layer on top of it a bit of 0:02:36.080 --> 0:02:40.200 a style component that's sort of specifically looking for the 0:02:40.440 --> 0:02:43.560 for upsets, and it's it's kind of what you would expect. 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:47.520 The best things you can do is increased variants. So 0:02:47.680 --> 0:02:51.040 slow paced teams, teams that shoot a lot of threes 0:02:51.080 --> 0:02:53.880 and shoot them, well, all those things give you a 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:55.640 better chance. You want to you want to increase the 0:02:55.680 --> 0:02:58.440 variants if you're an underdog. But it's sort of looking 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:01.040 at those style components between the two teams and seeing 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:04.440 how it might nudge the numbers off that bp I 0:03:04.600 --> 0:03:07.200 rating just just a little bit one way or another. 0:03:07.440 --> 0:03:09.160 All right. So for those who want to see the 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:11.800 printed piece that that accompanies this, this actually a companies 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:14.160 the printed piece. It's called Giant Killers Complete upset picks 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:17.000 for every region in the March Madness Bracket one. Seth 0:03:17.040 --> 0:03:19.239 does it with his colleague John Gasaway, who we have 0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:22.280 who we have had on this show as well over 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:25.799 there at ESPN plus. Uh So you do this very 0:03:25.880 --> 0:03:29.720 uh very you know, logically, region by region and then 0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:33.320 you break them down into per region, best bet in 0:03:33.400 --> 0:03:36.960 terms of giant killer worth a long look, um, not 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:41.480 completely ridiculous, and stay away. I love those categories alright, 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:43.600 So for our purposes here, because the time is of 0:03:43.640 --> 0:03:47.080 the essence, we'll stay away from not completely ridiculous and 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:50.160 stay away. But let's talk about let's start with the 0:03:50.520 --> 0:03:53.160 East Region. Let's go to the best bet in the 0:03:53.200 --> 0:03:57.200 East Region in terms of a giant killer possibility. Yeah, 0:03:57.200 --> 0:03:59.400 so that's U c l A over B y U. 0:03:59.600 --> 0:04:02.000 If U c l A beat Michigan State in the 0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:05.280 first four, this is actually the Giant Killer's number one 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:09.120 upset pick overall. It's obviously contingent on that first four matchup, 0:04:09.400 --> 0:04:11.560 but we're giving U c l A a forty one 0:04:11.600 --> 0:04:15.960 percent chance to be B y U if the matchup occurs. Uh. 0:04:16.000 --> 0:04:17.520 You know, this is a team U c l A 0:04:17.600 --> 0:04:21.280 who's gonna protect the basketball and probably have a bit 0:04:21.279 --> 0:04:23.760 of an offensive or a bit of a rebounding advantage 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:26.560 overall in that matchup. So I would expect that they 0:04:26.560 --> 0:04:28.880 would get a couple more shot attempts in this game 0:04:29.320 --> 0:04:32.080 relative to B y U. And you know they're both 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:35.080 both teams that can shoot the three. Well, they don't 0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:37.440 shoot U c l. A I'm talking about. They don't 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:40.160 shoot a ton of threes, but they are efficient when 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:42.840 they do it. So, uh, I think the U c 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:44.640 l has got a really good shot here. Forty one 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:46.960 percent is really high. I mean for an eleven six 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:49.400 as a really high upset, I think if you're filling 0:04:49.400 --> 0:04:51.760 out a bracket, you got to take a really long 0:04:51.800 --> 0:04:55.360 look at U c L. An. Yeah, as you say, 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:58.200 mccronit's team in a play in game with Michigan State. 0:04:58.400 --> 0:05:00.600 Michigan State over B y U and is one of 0:05:00.640 --> 0:05:02.919 the worth a long looks in the same region. Just 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:06.160 below that, Yeah, yeah, exactly. And and I want to 0:05:06.160 --> 0:05:08.320 say this about Michigan State. You know, we're not factoring 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:11.400 in anything about this pause they had in the middle 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:13.760 of the season. They had three losses right off the 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:17.800 bat there after after that pause. If you're a believer 0:05:18.000 --> 0:05:20.840 that they sort of figured things out late, maybe we're 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:24.120 underrating Michigan State. I don't think that's impossible. So I 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:26.960 think that Michigan State either way, that is definitely a 0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:29.640 potential good upset game for your bracket. All right, And 0:05:29.680 --> 0:05:31.240 a little and a little more percentage on that I 0:05:31.240 --> 0:05:34.479 skipped one. Actually Georgetown also falls into the worth a 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:39.280 long look category against Colorado at twelve five. Yeah, I 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:41.320 was kind of surprised here because we're not we're not 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:45.560 factoring in recency. Obviously Georgetown came on hot at the end. 0:05:45.720 --> 0:05:49.400 But the reality is that what Georgetown did lately, especially 0:05:49.440 --> 0:05:54.039 that blowout win over Craton, that does substantially change what 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:56.200 we think what we think of them. They they jumped 0:05:56.240 --> 0:05:59.039 up twenty three spots in bp i's rankings over the 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:01.719 final week of the Sea then, and so we think 0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:03.560 there's we think there's a shot there. I mean, it's not. 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:05.320 I don't think that you're going to get that performance 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:09.520 out of them every every night. But that's a solid 0:06:09.680 --> 0:06:12.120 that's a solid number for a twelve five. So we're 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:15.240 in the East region. UM, and those are again the 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:16.720 best bet U c l A in terms of a 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:18.680 giant killer, best bet U c l A over B 0:06:18.920 --> 0:06:22.240 y u, best chance of a giant killer in the 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:25.000 entire tournament. And then worth a long look Georgetown over 0:06:25.040 --> 0:06:27.280 Colorado at twelve five, and then Michigan State if they 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:29.280 beat U c l A in the play and over 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:32.880 B y U. UM. By the way, Abilene Christian fans 0:06:33.320 --> 0:06:37.080 not completely ridiculous Abilene Christian over Texas. Also in that region. 0:06:37.520 --> 0:06:40.359 Let's go to the West. Let's go best bet in 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:42.279 terms of a giant killer in the West region Staff 0:06:42.320 --> 0:06:46.320 if you could. You know how like every year, by 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:48.760 the time the tournament happens, by the time the first 0:06:48.800 --> 0:06:51.880 games go on, there's one upset that you're just blocked in. 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:54.880 You're like, this is just a it's gonna hit. I 0:06:54.920 --> 0:06:57.720 think Coldgate over Arkansas is gonna be that team for me. 0:06:57.880 --> 0:07:00.719 I'm not there yet, but by come Friday, I'll probably 0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:03.839 be certain this one is gonna hit. It's a really 0:07:03.880 --> 0:07:09.039 interesting matchup because Colgate has been super efficient, super efficient. 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:11.760 You have two high paced, fast paced teams, so not 0:07:11.840 --> 0:07:14.520 normally what we're looking at, and giant Killers. They're super efficient, 0:07:14.560 --> 0:07:17.040 but they've played absolutely no better. I mean they had 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:19.560 I think with four games in a row against holy Cross, 0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:22.560 so uh, they had played absolutely nobody. But this is 0:07:22.600 --> 0:07:26.000 why you need a model, in my opinion, to handle this, 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:29.520 because we're putting an opponent adjustment in there, and and 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:31.880 our model still likes coal Gate. I mean not like 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:34.200 the net ranking with which Adam in the top ten, 0:07:34.640 --> 0:07:37.120 but we still like cold Gate as a as A 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:39.239 as a good team, and so we give a thirty 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:42.200 five percent chance to be Arkansas. They can certainly score. 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:45.680 I think there is real I mean for a four 0:07:45.680 --> 0:07:49.040 team three this is an incredible number. Uh Cold Gate 0:07:49.040 --> 0:07:51.080 over archanfas here in some sort of pool, you know, 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:54.160 multiply the seeds. This is an absolutely no brainer to 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:56.960 pick cold Gate away an upset rewarded pool like that 0:07:57.000 --> 0:07:59.840 would be great. One sixty two. One sixty two is 0:07:59.880 --> 0:08:02.680 the total, by the way, in that game seth um 0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:05.000 Arkansas and coal Gate the three or four team game 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:07.080 in the West. So that's the best bet in terms 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:10.120 of a giant killer at West. Thirty five percent chance. Uh, 0:08:10.160 --> 0:08:15.760 not quite of the u c l A u c 0:08:15.960 --> 0:08:18.920 l A B Y you match up in the previous region. 0:08:19.240 --> 0:08:22.560 What about worth a long look in the West. So 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:27.800 just below coal Gate Arkansas, Yeah, North Texas and Perdue, 0:08:27.840 --> 0:08:30.680 we give it a twenty two upset chance. I mentioned 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:33.080 at the top taste this is one of those pages 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:36.640 games you've got two slow teams. It's just about limiting 0:08:36.640 --> 0:08:39.120 the number of possessions. It gives per Due, which is 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:42.040 obviously the better team here, just gives them fewer chances 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:46.920 to extend that advantage over North Texas. It means if 0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:48.720 you get a couple of balls, you know, a couple 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:52.080 of balls bounced right for North Texas, a loose ball here, 0:08:52.160 --> 0:08:55.000 a three point there, maybe they could maybe they could 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:57.840 turn that and uh. And so that's where we put 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:01.240 North Texas, giving them a as against Perdue and the 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:04.800 other one in that region. That is worth a long look. 0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:07.079 You say, is Utah stayed over Texas Tech? You state 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:09.480 a team that a lot of folks didn't think would 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:12.680 make the brackets and Texas Tech. You know, it's interesting 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:14.480 because I've had sort of here on the show. A 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:15.960 lot of people are like, we love Chris Beard, but 0:09:15.960 --> 0:09:20.800 this isn't his best outfit. Yeah, I think that's right. Yeah, Utah. Stay, 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:23.520 if you look at our resume numbers, Utah stayed over 0:09:23.559 --> 0:09:27.640 Louisville was a pretty questionable choice, I think by the committee. 0:09:27.960 --> 0:09:30.160 But there's a shot here. I think if we look 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:32.200 at there, this could be a game where they have 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:35.080 a rebounding advantage. Uh. They were you know, they were 0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:39.760 sixteenth and offensive reboundary and Texas Tech two four and 0:09:39.840 --> 0:09:43.240 defensive reboundary per ten palms. So I think that's one 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:45.360 area where they could have it, have an edge, gives 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:47.440 them a shot. I don't think it's crazy to pick 0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:49.640 this upset. There are a lot of other games that 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:51.400 are that are worse than this one. So there's a 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:54.600 chance here, all right. Also in that region, again, just 0:09:54.640 --> 0:09:57.520 to sort of say it not completely ridiculous, Winthrop over 0:09:57.600 --> 0:09:59.960 Villanova's the twelve five. Now, interestingly, by the way, where 0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:02.520 talk at to Seth Walter from ESPN sports analytics writer 0:10:02.760 --> 0:10:05.760 who did this great giant killer's pace with John Gasaway 0:10:05.800 --> 0:10:08.160 in the South which is Baylor's region. If you will, 0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:10.880 there is no best bet in terms of a giant killer, 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:13.720 and you have one worth a long look. So this 0:10:13.760 --> 0:10:16.400 one is devoid of of what you would call a 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:18.480 best bet. But what's the worth a long look here? 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:22.839 If you see Santa Barbara over Creating the twelve five 0:10:23.160 --> 0:10:25.440 and if you are like I mentioned, we don't put 0:10:25.480 --> 0:10:28.600 any factor or in any sort of recency stop here. 0:10:28.679 --> 0:10:33.319 So Creating's lost against Georgetown, whether that happened last game 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:36.640 or back you know in January, either way sort of 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:40.200 counting the same. If you're believering in recency, even maybe 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:41.880 you think the Goucher's have a better shot, you know, 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:44.360 we give them just a twenty one percent chance. It 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:47.560 wasn't sort of like a perfect matchup there. Uh, you see, 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:49.880 Santa Barbara was one of those teams that I was 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:52.920 looking at before the tournament. Given the right opponent we 0:10:53.000 --> 0:10:55.959 might have, they might have had a higher chance. Creighton, 0:10:56.400 --> 0:10:57.920 you know, is a is a pretty good team that 0:10:58.000 --> 0:11:02.240 absent that last game or absolutely le shop for you 0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:05.520 see Santa Barbara. But this and the West I think 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:07.520 are going to be a little bit chalkier in terms 0:11:07.640 --> 0:11:10.560 of the regions. This is this is awesome. There's people 0:11:10.640 --> 0:11:12.760 listening right now, Okay, filling out and you're right. The 0:11:12.880 --> 0:11:17.640 upset rewarded pools specifically, uh, this is key not completely 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:21.160 ridiculous in that region. Also the play in whoever wins 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:26.160 the play game Wichita State or Drake against USC, so 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:29.280 in that eleven six the eventual eleven six Wichita State 0:11:29.320 --> 0:11:32.960 incrementally more of an upset chance than Drake, but either 0:11:33.040 --> 0:11:35.640 one of those teams has a not completely ridiculous shot 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:38.520 according to the Giant Killer's model of taking down number 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:41.880 six USC with Evan Mobley the Pack twelve player of 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:46.000 the year. Alright, so if we go to let's see 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:50.240 here oh, there's more. Not there's more, actually not completely ridiculous. 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:53.800 Pardon me, Ohio over Virginia Eastern washingtover Kidsas but none 0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:58.720 of those qualifies. The best bet corrects the correct But yeah, no, 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:00.840 that's that's absolutely right. We're all we're all on the 0:12:00.880 --> 0:12:03.280 low low teams there, all right. So and then in 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:06.160 the Midwest, we do have a best bet. Uh, I 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:09.439 like this one, what you got in the Midwest. There's 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.439 a big one, this Syraccus over San Diego State. We 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:14.960 give it a thirty nine percent chance to hit, So 0:12:15.000 --> 0:12:18.679 it's our best guaranteed matchup. I guess you could say, uh, 0:12:18.840 --> 0:12:21.520 second only to U C. L A. And with Serious, 0:12:22.320 --> 0:12:25.120 it's not it's not some big style factor here. It's 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:27.880 just a matter of looking at these efficiencies. I mean 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:33.800 Syraccus is basically we make them the thirty third best 0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:37.040 team in the country going forward. And to put that 0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:39.640 in context, they're an eleventh seed, which is how State 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:42.560 is also in eleven seed, and we make them in 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:46.679 the ninety seven best team in the country. So I 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:50.080 think I think you're getting a really wide range there 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.439 in Serious season is on the strong side. If you 0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:55.960 look at just efficiencies and we adjust for opponent quality, 0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:59.120 we would say that San Diego State was about three 0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:02.040 and a half points per game better than Syracuse. Once 0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:04.800 we've got during the preseason prior, we make it about 0:13:04.840 --> 0:13:07.840 a two point difference between these two teams. So that's 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:09.400 you know, that's that's how you sort of end up 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:13.559 in this kind of range. So Syricuse, I think, is 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:16.080 a really is a really good play. It's just when 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:20.920 you're factoring in those opponent adjustments, it matters and worth 0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:25.600 a long look. In that same Midwest region, Yeah, Liberty 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:28.760 over Oklahoma State, this is a fun one. Liberty. They've 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:31.480 got the offense they you know, they chuck threes up, 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:33.319 they hit them too. You know, there are two point 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:36.160 field low percentage, three point field low percenters, free throw shooting, 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:39.720 ball security, Like, they have the offensive edge in this game. 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:43.880 So Oklahoma State, no question, they're the better defensive team here. 0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:46.880 But in the thirteen four game, to tell me you're 0:13:46.880 --> 0:13:49.839 getting the team that is you know, normally it's like, well, 0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:52.640 maybe the difference between these two teams is in that large, 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:56.080 but we're actually getting the better offense here with Liberty, 0:13:56.480 --> 0:13:59.440 and so that to me is really appealing. I certainly 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:01.880 know like it. On my brackets, I will have liberty 0:14:02.559 --> 0:14:06.080 chance we have them. Beating Oklahoma State should be a 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:08.560 fun day in a while. Oklahoma State got the raw 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:10.160 end of the deal. I think most people think on 0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:13.080 these brackets as you write with liberty two point field 0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:15.960 goal percentage, chack three point field goal percentage, check free 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:19.600 throw shooting, check ball security check um. Also, by the way, 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:22.800 in that region, not completely ridiculous. More Head stayed over 0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:26.360 West Virginia, Oregon State over Tennessee in the twelve five, 0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:29.320 but those again in a in a lower category, so 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:32.160 just a review. And again the piece is called Giant 0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:34.560 Killers Complete upset picks for every region in the March 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:37.640 bat is Bracket one. The best bets in the East 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.200 region you see l A if they can win the 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:42.720 play in game against Michigan State U C l A 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:44.880 over b y U and the eleven six would be, 0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:47.880 according to the Giant Killers model, the highest upset chance 0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:52.640 in the whole tournament. Also a best bet in the 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:56.320 West region col Gate over Arkansas. The model gives it 0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:59.680 thirty five percent chance to do that. And uh. And 0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:02.880 then finally the third one is the one we just discussed. Uh. 0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:06.520 You know in the in the Midwest region Syracuse the 0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:09.960 eleven sixs over San Diego State. That would be, as 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:15.200 Seth just said, of the guaranteed matchups, the highest percentage 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:18.640 upset chance per the Giant Killers model. Seth, will you 0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:21.880 update this after the first round and after the second 0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:25.360 round into the sweet sixteen if there's anything applicable. I 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:27.400 don't know if we'll have a story, but I'll certainly 0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:29.880 probably tweet tweet out what we have going into the 0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:32.440 going into there. Obviously second round you can look at 0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:35.800 it seven two or any sort of crazy, crazy matchup. 0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:38.800 A lot can happen in the second round two, all right, 0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:41.800 and people can find that at Seth Walder W A. L. 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:45.640 D E. R. Seth, I always appreciated man, love your work. 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:49.000 Uh and John as well. Thank you for continuing with 0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:54.440 the Giant Killer's mantle over there, Sir Seth Walder. Everybody 0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:57.840 sports analytics writer for ESPN want to go through each 0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:01.080 and every bracket here with a man. We've crew. We're 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:04.840 gonna breathe them in separately. UM, So here's how we're 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:07.000 gonna do it. We're gonna have Maddie Cox in first, 0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:09.600 Jim Roots gonna join us in studio. We're gonna add 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:13.440 Kaim McKay and next after that we're gonna go through 0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:16.160 all of these now A t s and Brackett by Brackett. 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:17.680 Do we have Matt by the way yet, Jason? Do 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:20.840 we have Matt? Yes, we do. Matt Cox. Everybody from 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:22.680 three Man Weave you can check out all their tweets 0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:26.520 are underscore CBB on a daily basis. How are you 0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:30.040 doing once again, Matt? We meet again Gil. Always a pleasure. Yeah, 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:33.720 the marathon begins, Let's do it. The marathon begins. We 0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:35.840 will put this in podcast form as well. For those 0:16:35.880 --> 0:16:37.600 wondering what are you gonna put this a beating the book, 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:40.760 we will. Um we were this is a a something 0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:42.360 in the making for a year. We wanted to do 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:45.320 this last year. Obviously we did not get the opportunity. 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:50.120 Um before we get in anything. Six referees yesterday. What 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:55.200 was that story? So the headline was pretty straightforward and 0:16:55.240 --> 0:16:57.280 we were going back and forth thought who's to blame here? 0:16:57.320 --> 0:17:00.280 But basically the kind of the big wigs of the 0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:05.879 instantly refereeing pool, guys like TV Teddy, John Eyres and 0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:09.960 Bob Higgins got to their hotel, their rooms. Apparently we're 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:11.560 not ready, so that they feared, hey, let's go out 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:14.840 and get a meal, And sure enough they test deposit 0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:17.200 for COVID. It's not I don't think confirming that's where 0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:20.919 they got COVID, but it's a pretty safe assumption. So 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:23.240 everyone's saying, how can their freeze be up? So obtuse 0:17:23.280 --> 0:17:26.520 to go out and have a meal given the stringent protocols. 0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:28.520 But I also think there's some blood on the end 0:17:28.520 --> 0:17:31.040 stable as hands. Maybe get the rooms ready to go, 0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:33.080 Like I think we've known about this tournament for a 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:36.640 few weeks now, a few weeks or months. It wasn't like, oh, 0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:39.720 we need to like accommodate a whole like convention and 0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:41.119 the and the drop of the hat. So yeah, I 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:43.560 had an odd story. But hopefully this is not a 0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:46.600 bad omen of more such stoppages to come. Yeah, So 0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:51.480 six pm is the deadline today, six pm Eastern for everybody. 0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:56.840 All teams meeting their medical protocols. All teams in the 0:17:56.880 --> 0:18:00.199 pool sixty eight teams. Uh if those are all And 0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:02.679 by the way, Louisville is the first team up in 0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:05.520 case any team does not meet that and can't play 0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:10.280 in the tournament. If it is a one bid conference team, 0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:14.479 then a team from that conference will replace, um, the 0:18:14.520 --> 0:18:17.800 team that's already in. So if someone from the America East. 0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:19.800 By the way, if if if not to pick on 0:18:20.320 --> 0:18:22.720 you know, not to pick on a small conference. But 0:18:22.800 --> 0:18:26.720 if if a automatic bid from a smaller conference America's Northeast, 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:28.480 so for so on and so forth, they can't go, 0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:33.880 they would be replaced by a team in their particular conference. Okay, 0:18:34.520 --> 0:18:35.960 and by the way, it should be noted that if 0:18:36.000 --> 0:18:39.879 if something happens after six pm, then it's just team 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:43.080 forfeits and the team playing that team that can't meet 0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:46.960 the medical requirements, they just advance. Right, those are those 0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:50.280 are your ground rules. So okay, Thursday, we have four 0:18:50.440 --> 0:18:53.840 play in games, the first four if you will you 0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:56.520 actually you actually before we even get to the brackets themselves, 0:18:56.520 --> 0:18:59.560 starting with the sixty four, you actually like some bets here? 0:18:59.600 --> 0:19:02.680 At three you had a four of these games, right, yeah? 0:19:02.720 --> 0:19:05.480 I like the action on you mentioned Suny pipercente of 0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:07.800 the of the openers. It's nice that we get some 0:19:07.800 --> 0:19:09.680 some bets off and running here to start. I think 0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:11.760 my favorite of this batch goes I mentioned last night 0:19:11.760 --> 0:19:14.600 Mount St. Mary's spread has been hit pretty hard. It's 0:19:14.680 --> 0:19:17.960 closer to pick at some places after opening plus two 0:19:17.960 --> 0:19:20.480 and a half plus three at some books. I hopped 0:19:20.480 --> 0:19:22.920 in early, so I was endorsing anything at plus two 0:19:22.960 --> 0:19:25.240 or higher. I still think it's worth a hard look. 0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:27.840 This is fits into like the middle of the ven 0:19:27.880 --> 0:19:32.639 diagram between matchup that's favorable and price that's favorable. You 0:19:32.680 --> 0:19:35.399 have a team that's coming off very impressive NACY tournament 0:19:35.400 --> 0:19:38.120 win Mount St. Mary's. They have a little jitterbug named 0:19:38.160 --> 0:19:40.560 Damien Chong quick five eight guy, and the rest of 0:19:40.600 --> 0:19:42.320 their lineup kind of looks like the mon Stars from 0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:45.359 Space Sham. They start six nine six nine six five. 0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:48.320 Really an outlier type of DNA for a mid major 0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:50.879 team should give a lot of problems to Texas Southern 0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:53.800 coach by Johnny Jones, the former l s U head honcho. 0:19:54.200 --> 0:19:56.840 He's a talent vacuum. He's got guys that played at Georgetown, 0:19:57.240 --> 0:20:00.480 Steven F. Austin, oh Michael Marcus Weathers, there best players 0:20:00.480 --> 0:20:03.159 at Oklahoma State, So no shortage of talent for Johnny 0:20:03.240 --> 0:20:06.680 Jones bunch. But they are excessively rim reliance and Mount St. 0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:09.240 Mary's is just a kryptonite matchup with all the size 0:20:09.240 --> 0:20:10.800 and length they have. I think you're getting a good 0:20:10.800 --> 0:20:13.119 price here. Mount St. Mary's best bet of the first 0:20:13.200 --> 0:20:16.440 four bunch for me. Okay um, not the game that 0:20:16.480 --> 0:20:19.800 we're showing there on on the screen. We're talking about 0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:23.119 Mount St. Mary's over Texas Southern in the play and 0:20:23.200 --> 0:20:25.359 game to take on Michigan. All right, Mount Saint Mary's 0:20:25.400 --> 0:20:27.320 one of them. What's the what or the other two? 0:20:28.440 --> 0:20:32.080 So looking at Appalachian State against Norfolk, this is just 0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:36.639 the classics Southern or Sun Belt versus MIAK discrepancy. I 0:20:36.640 --> 0:20:39.600 thought the opening number didn't really account for the the 0:20:40.040 --> 0:20:43.880 chasm between those two caliber of conferences. App States under 0:20:44.000 --> 0:20:46.520