WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - June 2nd, 2023 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:05.720 This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and 0:00:05.880 --> 0:00:09.440 editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:09.520 --> 0:00:13.680 global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:18.960 Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:19.840 --> 0:00:23.000 Okay, so we are definitely a watch in AI conversations, 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:25.919 the narrative the market moves related to such like this 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:28.760 year's mega app performance by end video though pulling back 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:30.560 a little bit today and keeping with that earlier on 0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:34.320 Bloomberg TV, I think overnight actually Kathy Wood talking about 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:36.560 what will be the next to ride on the artificial 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:39.000 intelligence frenzy driven by Nvidia. 0:00:39.400 --> 0:00:44.000 We think this is a very large market, and we 0:00:44.159 --> 0:00:48.320 believe right now the hardware side of it is probably 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:52.720 in the thirty forty billion dollar range, So multiply that 0:00:53.000 --> 0:00:56.800 by eight we see the software side going to eight 0:00:56.920 --> 0:01:02.720 times that. But over the next between now and twenty thirty, 0:01:02.760 --> 0:01:06.560 we think artificial intelligence is going to add more value 0:01:06.640 --> 0:01:10.800 than any of our other technology platforms. 0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:12.840 Are that of course, as Kathy Wood of ARC invest 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:15.600 really defending because she's been under a lot of criticism 0:01:15.680 --> 0:01:19.000 Matt for her selling of Nvidia back in January, which 0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:21.480 we know who has been on a tear this year. 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:26.120 It's basically tripled since then. So yeah, she continues to 0:01:26.160 --> 0:01:29.759 say like valuations were too high and trying to kind 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:32.400 of justify the sale. I think she should just say, 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:35.280 we screwed up, you know, Maya Kalpa. We would have 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:38.240 preferred to make money with that stock. We didn't win some, 0:01:38.360 --> 0:01:41.679 you lose some. Let's move on. Well, the software part 0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:44.560 of the story is really interesting, I think great. The 0:01:44.640 --> 0:01:51.240 only problem is her track record for exaggerating with her forecasts. 0:01:52.120 --> 0:01:55.760 She's like the boy who cried ten thousand wolves, you know. 0:01:56.040 --> 0:01:58.320 I mean she says Tesla's going to be worth two thousand. 0:01:58.320 --> 0:02:00.480 By the way, Tesla's trading at the same piece four 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:02.400 p as in video. So okay. 0:02:02.520 --> 0:02:04.680 The thing I will say is she was out early 0:02:04.720 --> 0:02:07.200 when it comes to Tesla, a name that nobody wanted 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:09.360 to back, and she wasn't wrong about that. And so 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:12.560 maybe her numbers or her peaks, maybe you don't exactly 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:14.760 mesh with the reality. But a lot of the. 0:02:14.720 --> 0:02:17.079 Trends that you go on, like one point three million, 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:18.280 I think jour there's. 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:20.280 A lot of plays that have and there are other 0:02:20.320 --> 0:02:23.280 companies that have mimicked her in terms of the innovation play. 0:02:23.360 --> 0:02:24.200 I'm just going to put that out. 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:25.920 We'll just take a look at the other side, the 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:29.480 performance of the fund. Okay, Okay, it's very bad. 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:31.360 But take it back to the beginning. Okay, all right, 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:33.799 we're going to continue this. In the meantime, we want 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:35.160 to do want to talk about one of the most 0:02:35.200 --> 0:02:37.440 read stories on the Bloomberg Yes, folks, we're going to 0:02:37.480 --> 0:02:41.000 get to a point here because it's about Hedge Fund, 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:45.080 specifically deploying chept to handle all of the gruntwork. So 0:02:45.120 --> 0:02:46.919 it's got this AI play, no doubt about it. So 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:49.240 let's get into this story with Bloomberg News Managing Editor 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:53.200 of Technology and Global Cybersecurity, Linda Wan. She's here in 0:02:53.200 --> 0:02:55.440 our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. I hope we didn't freak 0:02:55.480 --> 0:02:56.200 you out with her. 0:02:56.560 --> 0:03:00.840 No, I'm highly used you and I'm so. 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:02.840 Glad that I'm not here talking about in video because 0:03:02.840 --> 0:03:04.960 I've been talking in video for the last week and 0:03:05.000 --> 0:03:07.000 I'm done with it for now. All right, she's reaching 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:09.720 the trillion dollar mark and now now it's done for now. 0:03:09.800 --> 0:03:10.799 Well, what's the wait? 0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:12.639 What is the narrative around that is it that it's 0:03:12.720 --> 0:03:15.000 just too much too right now at this point. 0:03:14.880 --> 0:03:18.040 I think that everyone's freaked out over the past week, right, 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:21.360 I mean, you've seen it means huge gains. You got 0:03:21.360 --> 0:03:24.960 to like take a pause and question whether it deserves that, 0:03:25.880 --> 0:03:28.639 and then Kathy would right. I mean she's got some 0:03:28.760 --> 0:03:31.360 valid points. There's going to be more competition in this space. 0:03:31.400 --> 0:03:33.560 There already is. It's only a matter of time before 0:03:33.560 --> 0:03:35.360 you see more and more people pile into this like 0:03:35.480 --> 0:03:38.440 AI market and try to stake their own claim to it. 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:40.800 So it's absolutely true. I mean the thing about in 0:03:40.880 --> 0:03:44.480 video not to bring it up, sorry Lennon, is that 0:03:44.760 --> 0:03:48.000 for a while time, I feel like if you called 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:50.400 up your broker and said I need an on AI 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:54.440 right now, she probably was like, there's a stock for you. 0:03:54.560 --> 0:03:57.440 It checks every box, as Kathy Wood said, and VideA 0:03:57.600 --> 0:03:59.720 is it and that was the only stock. You know, 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:03.080 everybody else, even in AI wasn't doing nearly as well 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:05.920 as in Nvidia. But at least the good thing about 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:08.520 Kathy woods interview on Bloomberg TV is that she points 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:10.960 out there's gonna be a lot of other beneficiaries if 0:04:10.960 --> 0:04:14.240 it's really true, if this is the next wave of innovation. 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:17.680 It's not just about the people who make chips, right, 0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:19.080 there's so much more stroader. 0:04:19.200 --> 0:04:21.400 I mean, think about the entire AI supply chain. It 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:24.000 goes from like the foss fuels that generate the electricity 0:04:24.080 --> 0:04:26.760 that power the data centers that use the chips. There's 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:28.760 an entire chain to make money off of, not just 0:04:28.760 --> 0:04:29.200 one company. 0:04:29.279 --> 0:04:32.039 Right, So bring in tie in Wall Street because you know, 0:04:32.120 --> 0:04:33.760 the one thing we need to talk about is AI 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:35.320 is not a new thing, and we keep bringing in 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:37.679 like whoa, look at this new you know, Shania object, 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:40.800 but it's been around for a long time. Generative machine learning, though, 0:04:40.880 --> 0:04:43.600 does take this all to a different dimension. Talk to 0:04:43.640 --> 0:04:46.520 us about Wall Street and they're embracing of AI and 0:04:46.560 --> 0:04:47.440 where we are today. 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:51.400 Yeah, so let's talk specifically about generative AI because that 0:04:51.520 --> 0:04:54.320 is where we are at right now. That is what's new, right, 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:57.560 And when it comes to generative AI, I'm talking about 0:04:57.600 --> 0:05:01.080 like the AI tools like Chatcheep and Dolly where you 0:05:01.120 --> 0:05:03.320 can give it a prompt like, you know, show me 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:05.359 a picture of a rooster that's pink sitting on a 0:05:05.400 --> 0:05:07.200 brown couch and it'll be able to do that. So 0:05:07.240 --> 0:05:11.240 it can like create content on the fly. They're basically 0:05:11.320 --> 0:05:15.520 using these kinds of generative AI tools for back office work. 0:05:15.560 --> 0:05:17.800 I mean you said it, well, grunt work, right, So 0:05:17.839 --> 0:05:19.560 these are the kinds of tasks that you might assign 0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:24.360 to interns or entry level workers or admins. Some examples 0:05:24.360 --> 0:05:27.760 that we gave in our story today were summarizing fun 0:05:27.800 --> 0:05:32.680 performance assessing, like vast amounts of market research to distill it, 0:05:33.400 --> 0:05:37.480 writing basic code like these are the very mundane tasks 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:40.480 that real junior workers of Wall Street are used to doing. 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:42.560 And they've been doing this for a while. Are now 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:43.520 is this new? 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:46.840 This the generitive AI part is the new part, right, 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:49.520 So Wall Street has been using machine learning for years. 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:52.919 I mean these hedge funds are just as much software 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:57.880 companies as they are traders and investors at this point. 0:05:57.960 --> 0:06:01.640 They employ a ton of engineers that just do quant research, 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:05.040 just build algorithms. I mean that's where like quant trading 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:08.599 comes from. So really AI is not new to the space. 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:11.680 Generative AI is new to the space. I mean it's 0:06:11.720 --> 0:06:14.400 new to everybody. It's new to the world. Chat GPT 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:18.200 like changed everything and now suddenly everyone can program, everyone 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:20.600 can use large language models, everyone can write essays. 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:22.920 But Carol as you point out it's just one more 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:26.520 tool that Microsoft is offering people in the back office. 0:06:26.560 --> 0:06:28.640 Right when I first started out as an intern at 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:32.799 Tucker Anthony, you know, twenty five years ago, Paul Matt Miller, 0:06:32.920 --> 0:06:36.160 I had my introduction to Excel, Right, I was using 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:39.800 other Microsoft tools. I was, you know, printing out mailers. 0:06:39.839 --> 0:06:42.000 But there are tools, and there are tools Matt that change. 0:06:42.240 --> 0:06:44.040 Yeah, but this is not a lot. But I think, Lynn, 0:06:44.040 --> 0:06:47.040 what you're saying is right now Wall Street is using 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:50.239 this just as far as the intern sending out Christmas cards, 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:53.200 right you Excel, right, that's right. It's not picking stocks 0:06:53.200 --> 0:06:55.520 for anybody yet, correct, But it could. 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.400 Because they because and we've talked about this, Matt. 0:06:58.279 --> 0:06:59.280 Right, well they wrote about it. 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:00.920 It gets smarter and smarter and smarter. 0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:01.400 That's right. 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:04.560 I mean, it potentially could, and I think that that 0:07:04.680 --> 0:07:07.160 is the hope of these hedge funds. But the technology 0:07:07.320 --> 0:07:10.440 isn't perfect. You know, you might have read the stories, 0:07:10.520 --> 0:07:15.080 but chat GPT it lies like it makes stuff up, literally, 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:18.840 and it spits out a lot of really inconsistent responses, 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:21.520 and nobody really knows why, even the people who built 0:07:21.520 --> 0:07:25.120 these systems. So there's the issue of inconsistency and the 0:07:25.160 --> 0:07:27.000 fact that it can make up things. But there's also 0:07:27.040 --> 0:07:29.560 the issue of data leaks, which financial companies are. 0:07:29.520 --> 0:07:32.400 Very You know, this weekend, I was using chat GPT 0:07:32.600 --> 0:07:34.760 to try and determine the best strategy to get my 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:37.480 three of a kind in Yatzi, and it told me 0:07:37.600 --> 0:07:40.000 one thing, and I questioned the model, and then it 0:07:40.040 --> 0:07:42.000 told me another. It said, oh, I'm sorry, you're right. 0:07:42.040 --> 0:07:45.640 I'll have a moment of map playing Yazi. Okay, go ahead. 0:07:46.280 --> 0:07:48.320 My part is it makes mistakes. On the other hand, 0:07:48.680 --> 0:07:52.400 in your story that that you know that we're kind 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:55.400 of focused on right now, Lynn, which is Justina Lee 0:07:55.440 --> 0:07:59.240 and Segel Kishan wrote hedge funds are deploying chat gpt 0:07:59.320 --> 0:08:01.640 to hand all the grunt work. They point out that 0:08:01.720 --> 0:08:05.000 the FED found open AI's chat gpt does better than 0:08:05.000 --> 0:08:07.840 Google's burt and determining whether or not sentences are hawkish 0:08:07.920 --> 0:08:10.480 or dubvish. So it does have real value in terms 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:11.120 of investiation. 0:08:11.200 --> 0:08:14.400 It could have very real value, and Justina and Sagel 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:18.320 laid it out very well. I think that they are 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:20.800 still trying to figure out where that value lies. I 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:23.080 think a part of it isn't even just concerns about 0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:26.320 the factualness of these tools as much as it is 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:28.600 how do we make it work? How do we use 0:08:28.640 --> 0:08:30.480 it so that it makes money? So there's that too. 0:08:30.760 --> 0:08:32.400 I think the quandary is, like we talk about, it 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:34.640 gets smarter and smarter than more data that gets put 0:08:34.720 --> 0:08:36.679 into it. But at the same point, does that mean 0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:38.120 you have to open it up to everybody? And that 0:08:38.160 --> 0:08:39.600 means everybody has your information? 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:42.560 And that is like, right, the open source nature of 0:08:42.559 --> 0:08:45.320 some of these tools really freaks out Wall Street. They're 0:08:45.320 --> 0:08:48.880 trying to like build their own in house tools. Everybody 0:08:48.920 --> 0:08:51.640 is looking at that. But that's the that's the big concern, 0:08:51.720 --> 0:08:54.079 right You just don't know where that information is being 0:08:54.080 --> 0:08:56.280 stored when you put information. I don't know where your 0:08:56.360 --> 0:08:58.760 yachtzi information is being stored in chat Gypt. 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:01.520 Right now, here's the thing to be open to everybody else. 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:04.240 You're three of a kind new roll twos? Do you 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:06.200 pick up the other three dice and roll them or 0:09:06.200 --> 0:09:08.040 do you pick up all five? Because your chances of 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:09.920 rolling three of a kind are like forty two per d. 0:09:10.080 --> 0:09:12.120 No is this holiday season when you get that card? 0:09:12.120 --> 0:09:15.640 Happy Holidays. Matthew Miller from ABC Brokerage House it might 0:09:15.679 --> 0:09:19.600 have been Shatchy Sha che Te. Great stuff. We're all 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:21.880 learning as we go in this Lynn, thanks so much. 0:09:21.880 --> 0:09:24.559 This is just fun. Linda Want She's managing editor of 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:27.480 Technology and Global Cybersecurity at Bloomberg News. Here in our 0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:29.960 Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio, do you play Scrabble two? 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:33.600 Well, we do play Scrabble, but was an international crew 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:36.360 so we felt it would be unfair and we chose 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:38.480 Yachtzi instead. Oh my gosh. 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:39.400 To be continued. 0:09:39.679 --> 0:09:43.240 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:46.959 live weekdays from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, 0:09:47.160 --> 0:09:50.040 the Bloomberg Business App, and you too. You can also 0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:54.079 listen live to our flagship New York station Just say Alexa, 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:57.160 play Bloomberg You Love Them thirty. 0:09:57.280 --> 0:09:59.000 All right, right now, though, we want to talk about 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:01.880 stuff going on outside of the United States, specifically what's 0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:05.200 going on between Russia and Ukraine. The US and European 0:10:05.200 --> 0:10:08.199 allies urging caution on whether Ukraine should have the right 0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:11.520 to strike inside Russia that amid concerns that a potential 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:15.040 escalation could drag them into a broader war. Meantime, you've 0:10:15.040 --> 0:10:18.040 got President Putin demanding that Russia strength and air defenses 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:20.920 around Moscow after the biggest drone attack on the capital 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:24.120 since you ordered the invasion of Ukraine. So let's get 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:28.679 the latest and some really thoughtful thinking about what's going on, 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:31.640 at least the latest incidents. A valued voice for US 0:10:31.720 --> 0:10:34.600 on the war is Angela's stamp. She's senior fellow at 0:10:34.600 --> 0:10:38.000 the Brookings Institution, a former National intelligence officer for Russia 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:40.840 and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. Also served in 0:10:40.840 --> 0:10:43.679 the Office of Policy Planning at the US Department of State, 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:46.640 and her twenty nineteen book Putin's World, Russia Against the 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:49.480 West and with the Rest. She joins us once again 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:52.680 on the phone from Washington, DC. Angela, good to check 0:10:52.720 --> 0:10:54.920 in with you once again. We've been wanting to since 0:10:55.320 --> 0:11:01.720 those headlines about the drone attack in Moscow. Specifically, what 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:04.760 do you think about what's going on right now, this 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:06.839 war that's been going on for more than a year. 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:09.160 What do you think is going on inside the mind 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:10.400 of President Putin right now? 0:11:12.000 --> 0:11:15.400 So President Putin knows that the Ukrainians have said that 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.160 they're going to launch a counter offensive anytime soon. They've 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:20.520 been saying that for some time. But we believe they 0:11:20.559 --> 0:11:23.959 will do that, and so he's clearly very concerned about that. 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:27.000 Then you had a few weeks ago a lone drone 0:11:27.080 --> 0:11:30.800 attack right inside the Crumlin walls, and then yesterday you 0:11:30.920 --> 0:11:35.200 had these drones that attacked the very posh suburb of Moscow, 0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:37.640 where all the wealthy people live and where Putin himself 0:11:38.000 --> 0:11:42.240 has one of his official residences. So he must be 0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:46.319 wondering what the Ukrainians or their supporters have up their 0:11:46.360 --> 0:11:49.439 sleeves next. I mean, the Ukrainians have said that they 0:11:49.480 --> 0:11:52.920 didn't launch the drones yesterday, we do know that they're 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:58.520 also saboteurs inside Russia. And just a few days ago 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:00.560 and it's going on now, we have a group of 0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:04.560 people who identify themselves as anti Putin Russians march over 0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:08.199 the border to Belgaroon, and today the Russians are evacuating 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:12.720 children from that border town. So it's really to give 0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:15.120 the Russians a dose of their own medicine and make 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:18.120 them uneasy and not know what's coming in the future. 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:19.720 But it must make. 0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:23.920 Putin very angry about this. This remember was supposed to 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:24.960 be a three day war. 0:12:25.760 --> 0:12:28.439 So before we go any further with the drawing attacks 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:31.400 on the Kremlin. I've got to ask you, Angela about 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:36.199 what everyone says when I talk about this, and that is, well, 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:39.120 who did the Nordstream pipeline pipeline attack? 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:39.640 Right? 0:12:39.679 --> 0:12:42.280 It doesn't make any sense that the Russians would have 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:46.240 sabotaged their own pipeline. But also the US doesn't typically 0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:50.240 operate that way. It wasn't a fantastic job. So who 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:51.480 do you think was behind that? 0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:56.040 I mean, who knows? There's so much mystery surrounding all 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:59.400 of this. I've seen reports in the press here that 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:03.079 some governs think that it was a group of Ukrainians 0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:06.800 or pro pro Ukrainians, not government sponsored. But if you 0:13:06.960 --> 0:13:10.120 like they were free lancing that they did that, I 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:12.200 don't know whether we'll ever know who did it. But 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:15.080 I don't really have any good theories. I mean, if 0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:17.200 you say, if you think the Russians did it, the 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:19.960 only reason would be to raise you know, oil and 0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:24.280 natural gas prices, but that seems a rather roundabout way 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:27.600 of doing it. So I think we don't know. Now. 0:13:28.240 --> 0:13:29.760 As you said, we thought this was going to be 0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:31.600 a three day war. Here we are, you know, one 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:32.920 year in counting. 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:34.520 So base thought it was going to be a three 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:35.040 year war. 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.640 Yeah, to be that's right exactly, And I think the 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:39.200 world thought that this was going to come to an 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:42.840 end much more quickly. Having said that, how do you 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:44.960 figure out or how do you think about when this 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:47.200 might come to an end and what might ultimately bring 0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:47.800 it to an end. 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:50.520 Well, at the moment, there really does seem to be 0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:55.080 no end in sight. I think Putin definitely believes that 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:58.760 he can outlast the West that eventually, you know, will 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:01.000 have elections in the US next year, there are other 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:04.439 European countries will have elections, and in the end people 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:07.559 will say, you know, we can't go on supporting Ukraine 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:12.320 like this. We're dealing with inflation and so we should 0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:15.040 really think rethink that. So that's what he's waiting for. 0:14:15.240 --> 0:14:18.920 He's waiting for the West to give up on Ukraine, 0:14:18.920 --> 0:14:21.800 if you like, and then the Ukrainians won't have all 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:24.480 those weapons and so eventually they won't have any choice 0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:28.240 but to negotiate with Russia on Russia's trumps. Now, so 0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:30.880 far we haven't seen that happening. The West is still 0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:34.520 pretty united fifteen months into it. 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:39.360 Yeah, I mean, Angela, we're starting to see, especially on 0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:42.720 the far right grumblings about why are we funding this 0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:45.800 war or at least why are we funding the defense 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:49.920 of this democratic nation. Do you think that's going to 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:55.240 go further? Does it seem like those in you know, 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:58.080 the Freedom Caucus are going to try and take funding away? 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:00.440 Oh, I'm sure that they will. 0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:02.760 I mean, so far, I think we have very robust 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:06.760 congressional support for Ukraine mostly, but the people in the 0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:10.480 Freedom Caucus, the people the supporters of Donald Trump, think 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:13.320 that we shouldn't be supporting Ukraine. Some of those people 0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:17.080 even think that Russia should be our ally, not Ukraine. 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:19.600 And I'm sure as we get into the election season 0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:22.240 for next year, those voices are going to get louder 0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:26.160 and the people who still believe in supporting Ukraine are 0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:28.520 going to have to come up with very convincing arguments. 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:31.560 What about the people of Russia? More broadly, are they 0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:35.000 still behind him? We know that there are factions right 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:38.720 of folks that don't support it, but I'm just curious 0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:42.040 more broadly, especially if you now see the attack, the 0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:45.880 drone attack on Moscow, is that changing sentiment internally? 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:49.440 Well, I think for those people who believe in the 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:52.360 government narrative, then you know, the drones just shows that 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:56.000 it's the aggressive West. So the majority of Russians still 0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:59.800 appear at least to support this war passively because they 0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:03.520 have been fed this diet of propaganda that the Western 0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:05.720 the US is out to get them. Then there are 0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:09.880 groups in Russia who think that Putin isn't being strict 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:12.160 enough with this war, that the Russia should be more 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:15.080 extreme in the way that it's treating Ukraine. So he 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.400 gets criticism from the right as well. But so far 0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:20.120 there does not seem to be any kind of a 0:16:20.160 --> 0:16:23.760 ground swell movement in Russia that's anti war. Don't forget 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:27.000 a million people have already left Russia, many of who 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:28.920 left because they opposed the war. 0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:32.200 All right, So in terms of the war on the 0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:36.440 ground in Ukraine, what are the chances that the Ukrainians 0:16:36.480 --> 0:16:39.640 can actually make some headway and push the Russians out? 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:41.800 Is that even in the cards or do they need 0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:44.680 jets and a lot more from the West to do it? Well. 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:46.680 I think people believe that they may be able to 0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:49.520 push the Russians out of some of the occupied areas 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:52.160 in this counter offensive, But this is only going to 0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:54.240 be one of what apparently will be a number of 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:57.520 different counter offenses. I don't think anybody thinks for this 0:16:57.560 --> 0:17:00.240 particular one that will happen soon, that they going to 0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:03.760 push the Russians out of everything that they occupied, particularly 0:17:03.800 --> 0:17:06.840 the territories that they already occupied after twenty fourteen. 0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:10.320 So how do you think about this? I mean, I 0:17:10.400 --> 0:17:12.600 think I've talked with you before, you know, writing another book, 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:15.240 and how you're thinking about you know, putin going forward 0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:18.159 in Russia. I'm not wrong, but so like, how are 0:17:18.200 --> 0:17:19.120 you thinking about this? 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:22.880 Well, I'm still thinking looking into what I think will 0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:26.280 be a very long war. This could go on for 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:28.760 a long time, as long again, as long as Ukraine 0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:31.520 gets weapons from the West, because the Russians will get 0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:35.320 what they need, even if the army has performed certainly 0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:39.800 below par. At some point the Russians might be persuaded 0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:43.080 that it's in their interest to have a cease fire, 0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:45.760 but so far they've said that they will only do 0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:49.520 that if Ukraine accepts all their conditions, and as long 0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:51.760 as Ukraine is fighting back and as long as it's 0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:54.720 led by Voladimir Zelenski, they're not going to do that. 0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:58.440 Hey, Angela, who watches this the most closely? China Taiwan. 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:00.919 I'm just curious North Korea. Who you think is watching this, 0:18:01.040 --> 0:18:03.680 especially in terms of how the West reacts with Moscow. 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:07.840 Well, clearly China is watching very carefully because it does 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:11.560 affect its own view of maybe the timing on what 0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:15.520 it does to Taiwan. And then I think probably countries 0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:19.200 like North Korea are watching this too, just to see 0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:21.719 how this plays out. But I think China is the 0:18:21.720 --> 0:18:24.400 one for whom this probably has the most resonance. 0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:27.359 North Korea they're watching it on like an old black 0:18:27.359 --> 0:18:29.160 and white set with ars. 0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:32.720 It's all right, they're watching, and they're watching. Angela always 0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:36.159 appreciate you weighing in on this. Be well, good to 0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:39.000 check in with Angela Stent, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. 0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:42.960 Check out Our World and her book that's on Putin's World, 0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:45.520 Russia against the West and with the Rest. As we said, 0:18:45.800 --> 0:18:48.480 you know, has served within the US Department of State 0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:51.720 and the National Intelligence Councils there really has some great 0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:54.800 vantage point on Putin himself, but just more broadly when 0:18:54.800 --> 0:18:56.400 it comes to global policy. 0:18:59.080 --> 0:19:02.639 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:06.359 Live weekdays from two to five pm. Easter on Bloomberg Radio, 0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:09.440 the Bloomberg Business App, and you too. You can also 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:13.480 listen live to our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, 0:19:13.680 --> 0:19:15.359 Play Bloomberg e Love and thirty. 0:19:17.080 --> 0:19:19.600 Well, if you check out the Bloomberg original series The 0:19:19.600 --> 0:19:21.560 Future with Hannah Fry, you may have come across an 0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:24.480 episode that looked into how a scientific revolution has begun, 0:19:24.920 --> 0:19:27.840 one that may bring the fantasy of immortality a little 0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:30.320 closer to reality, at least by a few decades. Anyway, 0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:33.879 researchers the world over are closing in on discoveries that 0:19:33.920 --> 0:19:37.879 may help humans live longer, perhaps well into their one hundreds. 0:19:38.119 --> 0:19:41.040 So we have lots of conversations and lots of questions 0:19:41.080 --> 0:19:44.560 about wellness and living longer and lifespans in general. 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